Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/05/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
938 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Another warm day is expected on Wednesday with scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon and
continuing overnight. A slow moving upper level low pressure
system brings cooler temperatures and more showers to the
region starting Thursday, and continuing into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Only minor changes with the evening updates, previous discussion
below.
Quiet weather is still expected through the night. Some mid and
high level clouds should prevent fog formation. Also watching
the potential for some low clouds to sneak into the Wyoming
valley as well overnight.
Tomorrow will be another warm day, with highs well into the 80s
for most of the area. Most of the day should remain dry, but an
approaching warm front from the south will kick off some
scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon/early
evening. Warm front continue moving into the area overnight and
scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue. Model guidance
has really cut back on the amount of rain that is expected with
this first wave of showers and storms tomorrow night with the
best instability and forcing holding off until Thursday. Started
to pull back on PoPs and QPF some from the previous forecast,
but will wait another model cycle and see how the CAMs respond
as we get a little closer before pulling back too much. NAMNest
is really sparse with any convective activity through the
overnight hours, while the HRRR is more aggressive at this time.
Based on the little amount of instability with MUCAPE values of
just a couple of hundred joules on model soundings, starting to
lean towards less coverage in convection Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
310 PM Update...
An upper-level low moving over the Great Lakes region Wednesday
night into Thursday will push a frontal boundary into Central NY
and NE PA. Deep southwesterly flow will supply warm, moist air
into the air, helping to drive prolonged rainfall through the
day on Thursday. This initial frontal boundary appears
progressive, decreasing chances for flooding. Though, with the
combination of high precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.8
inches, as well as long, skinny CAPE profiles in soundings and
the warm cloud layer between 10-11 kft, there is still a chance
for flash flooding in areas were heavy rain trains. Overall,
we`re currently looking at total rainfall values of up to a half
inch to three-quarter inch of rain mainly east of I-81, and
between a quarter to a half inch of rainfall west of I-81.
Additionally, the Weather Prediction Center has our area under a
Marginal Risk for flash flooding (at least 5% chance of flash
flooding) for Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
310 PM Update...
The aforementioned upper-level low will swing down further into
our area and become quasi-stationary through the weekend.
Chances for rain showers and afternoon thunderstorms will remain
through Sunday morning, before this system finally pushes off to
the east-northeast. We`ll see a very slight warm up as this
system exits the area, but will mainly be in the 70s all
weekend and into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for most of the area through the
period. Conditions remain clear across the area later this
evening, with a few clouds moving in from the southeast late
tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at a marine stratus
layer moving into AVP Wednesday morning. For now, just hinted at
this with a SCT007 deck because confidence is too low on how
far north this stratus layer will push into our region.
Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with
restrictions may reach KAVP, KBGM, KELM and KITH between 18Z
Wednesday and 00Z Thursday. However, confidence is too low at
this time for mention in the 00Z TAFS.
Outlook...
Wednesday night and Thursday... Scattered showers and
thunderstorms around with some restrictions.
Thursday night through Sunday... Occasional showers with
restrictions likely.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MPK/MWG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms are expected this evening in much of the area
(50 to 85 percent chance). Severe storms cannot be ruled out,
with damaging winds and marginally severe hail the main
threats.
- Dry and near-seasonal temperatures expected through the rest
of the work week.
- Chances for storms return this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
Main forecast challenge remains the threat of severe weather
this evening.
A vigorous upper-level trough is moving through the northern
Plains this afternoon, with a surface cold front moving
east/southeast, extending from western Minnesota to northern
Kansas early this afternoon. A few storms have initiated near
the boundary in central Kansas, in advance of a weak
perturbation moving into the central/southern Plains and along
the northern periphery of moderately to strongly unstable air
(2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and in the wake of an instability
minimum in portions of the CWA (via a departing MCV). CAMs
increase coverage of convection gradually through the evening
hours, though how quickly and to what extent remains rather
variable. Recent HRRR simulations are relatively aggressive,
producing scattered convection in northeast Kansas and northwest
Missouri through much of the evening before a somewhat more
organized broken line of convection moves through the CWA later
in the evening. The 12z NAM Nest is similar, though a little
more skittish on convection through mid evening.
One limiting factor to a more substantial severe threat is the
marginal shear in place (e.g., 0-6 km bulk shear < 30 kt). With
low-level winds remaining weak, the tornado threat is quite low;
however, dry midlevels and modest midlevel flow may permit the
development of strong wind gusts with the strongest convective
cores. Additionally, substantial instability should permit the
development of hail in the strongest cores (given what we are
observing to the west), particularly if convection remains
somewhat discrete. The greatest severe threat appears to be from
7 to 11 pm this evening, as the front moves into the CWA and
more substantial instability remains. The severe threat should
gradually diminish with time late in the evening/overnight as
nocturnal stabilization increases and convective outflow becomes
dominant.
The front will sweep through the CWA overnight, with any
precipitation exiting to our south and east by daybreak. The
remainder of the week will be dominated by northwest flow and a
surface high shifting southeastward through the Plains. This
should result in a dry/seasonal/pleasant period for the region.
Eventually, a midlevel ridge in the western U.S. will progress
into the Intermountain West, providing a more favorable track
for ejecting perturbations riding the ridge southeastward into
the Plains. Meanwhile, the surface high should move well to our
southeast by the weekend. This is a setup favorable for MCS
development in the warm season. Models are beginning to
converge on the first of such events occurring Friday night into
Saturday (e.g., the 12z GFS and CMC). The pattern is low-
predictability owing to the low amplitude of the overall upper
flow and potential convective augmentation of the midlevel
vorticity maxima. Nevertheless, with the increasingly favorable
overall pattern, think mention of low-chance (below 40 percent)
PoPs is warranted Friday night and Saturday. Subsequent
perturbations may track farther south (as suggested by
deterministic models), so PoPs are lower later in the weekend.
However, considerable modification to the forecast may occur
given the aforementioned low predictability.
Forecast uncertainty increases further next week as models
diverge in their handling of a weak upper low within the broader
upper ridging to our west. In the evolving pattern, would think
precipitation chances gradually increase, though specific timing
is quite uncertain at this point. Of higher certainty is the
continued near-seasonal temperature forecast given the lack of
high-amplitude ridging and the periodic chances of storms this
weekend onward.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
VFR conditions expected outside of timeframe for thunderstorms
(~around 02Z-05Z). They are expected to move to the east of the
terminals around midnight tonight. Winds are expected to come from
the southwest before shifting to the north early tomorrow morning.
With the passage of the frontal boundary, skies will gradually clear
out by Wednesday morning. There may be an occasional gust to 20
knots with diurnal mixing tomorrow.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...Collier
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
717 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
Cloud cover is holding on across areas mainly east of the I35
corridor early this afternoon. Temperatures are ranging from near 90
where there is cloud cover, to the upper 90s in the west. Should see
those clouds break up a bit later with highs across the area later
today in the middle 90s to near 105 out west. Elevated dewpoints
will lead to dangerous heat index values for most of the area and a
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the area outside of the Hill
Country and Edwards Plateau. The GFS and subsequent Fv3 is going
bonkers with rainfall and QPF amounts this evening as it convects
thunderstorm activity after 00z west of Austin then tracks southeast
through 06z. However, no other CAM or global model is showing this.
HREF probabilities for greater than 0.01" is 10-20 percent which is
indicative of this being an outlier. Therefore will show some 12%
PoPs in the grids but will not mention any weather. Will continue to
assess future runs of the HRRR and the 18z GFS to see how model
trends evolve but the most likely scenario for today is a continued
dry forecast as no focus for convection will likely be present in
our CWA.
Otherwise tonight, lows will be in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees
once again as nocturnal low clouds make a return to the area.
Another hot day is expected tomorrow with highs back in the middle
90s to near 106 out west. Dewpoints will also remain elevated and
portions of the area will almost certainly need another Heat
Advisory. Some counties will be likely right on the cusp as a
potential boundary moves into the area from the east so the exact
areas needing the advisory are not quite known yet. This boundary
could spark off some isolated convection mainly in the evening
hours. Instability amounts will be high and can`t rule out a strong
storm with this activity. SPC has placed most of the area in a level
1 (marginal) risk of severe storms in the new Day 2 update this
afternoon. Lows tomorrow night will be back in the middle 70s to
near 80 degrees.
Heat Precautions: Never leave people and/or pets alone within a
closed car, stay hydrated with plenty of water, wear loose-fitting
and light colored clothing, and take frequent breaks within the
shade and air conditioning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
High pressure ridging builds into the local area during the Thursday
to the upcoming weekend period. Hot weather conditions are forecast
through the extended forecast time frame with high temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s across most areas and ranging from 100 to 107
along the Rio Grande. Dry conditions are anticipated from Thursday
through Sunday with the possibility of having a Heat Advisory on
Thursday for some areas across South Central Texas. With the upper
level ridge moving overhead and then moving to the upper Texas coast
for the latter part of the week into the first part of the weekend,
good afternoon mixing is likely to control the local area
while keeping the heat advisory criteria in check.
Rain chances return to South Central Texas especially late Sunday
night into Monday as a cold front pushes across the central Texas.
The ECMWF pushes the boundary Monday morning and brings it all the
way to the coastal plains by the afternoon. However, the GFS keeps
the boundary over north Texas and crossing our local area on Tuesday
morning. Due to these differences, the GFS is drier and warmer for
the Monday period. Went ahead and did a blend of the GFS and ECWMF
solutions to come up with the Monday`s forecast. Whatever happens
with the front, we are only advertising slight chances for rain and
slightly below to normal climate temperatures for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
VFR will continue this evening, with MVFR clouds set to return to the
region early Wednesday morning around 06Z along the I-35 corridor.
The NBM guidance suggests some IFR clouds are possible, but overall
confidence is low and will not mention in the forecast at this time.
We did add a mention of MVFR at DRT early tomorrow morning based on
persistence and recent forecast soundings. Improvement is expected
after 16Z, with skies returning to VFR. There is potential for winds
to trend to a more easterly direction tomorrow afternoon as a front
approaches from the north. The front may also initiate some
convection and this will be monitored for subsequent forecasts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
TUE WED THU FRI
06/04 06/05 06/06 06/07
------------------------------------------------
AUS 99/2011* 100/2018 103/2011 100/2022
ATT 99/2008 101/2011 103/2022* 103/2022
SAT 100/1916 102/2022 104/2022 104/2022
DRT 104/2013* 107/2022* 110/2022 108/1974
* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 79 96 75 97 / 10 10 10 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 95 73 96 / 10 10 10 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 78 98 73 99 / 10 10 20 0
Burnet Muni Airport 76 94 72 94 / 10 10 10 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 80 107 80 107 / 0 10 10 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 77 94 73 94 / 10 10 10 0
Hondo Muni Airport 78 100 75 102 / 10 10 20 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 77 96 73 96 / 10 10 20 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 79 94 74 94 / 10 10 10 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 78 98 75 100 / 10 10 20 0
Stinson Muni Airport 79 99 76 101 / 10 10 20 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Bastrop-Comal-Dimmit-
Fayette-Hays-Lavaca-Lee-Maverick-Travis-Uvalde-Williamson-Zavala.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-
Bexar-Caldwell-De Witt-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Karnes-Medina-Wilson.
&&
$$
Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...05
Aviation...Platt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
955 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry tonight, showers/storms Wednesday
- Cooler and unsettled through the weekend
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024
Latest RAP shows a surge of higher PWATs over 1.5" arriving
overnight from southwest to northeast, with a 30-35 kt low level
jet setting up over Lk MI and the lakeshore counties. Also the H5
shortwave over wrn IL will be arriving after 06Z and will help
break down the upper ridge which is currently in place. Rain
chances will be ramping up accordingly, although the
higher/likely probabilities through sunrise should be limited to
areas near and west of Highway 131. Not much sfc based
instability to work with but incoming H8 LI/s near -2C will
support a late-night thunder risk. Temps holding up in the 70s
for much of the night thanks to clouds and southerly flow, with
early morning lows generally in the upper 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024
- Dry tonight, showers/storms Wednesday
The 18z surface analysis showed a cold front near the Red River of
the North and extending southward through western MN into
northeast NE. This cold front will be a key to our weather
Wednesday.
Radar shows developing storms over northeast Wisconsin, but they
are moving north and won`t affect southwest Lower tonight.
However, CAMs suggest that more scattered convection will develop
over portions of IL and southern WI later this evening and slowly
move in our direction as the aforementioned cold front makes
steady progress east. As instability wanes after midnight, these
storms to the west should diminish somewhat, but probably not
totally. Thus, we may be looking at some morning convection across
the western cwa Wednesday morning. Instability is somewhat
lacking during the morning and so we may see more showers than
storms, and the storms that do develop will likely be non-severe.
That could change by afternoon.
SPC has placed the southeast cwa in a Marginal risk for severe
storms Wednesday. This is mainly southeast of a Lansing to Battle
Creek line with the focus on the afternoon. There is still
uncertainty with this system and really hinges on how much the
atmosphere can recover after morning showers/storms. If lingering
clouds can thin a bit, then we`ll see more heating which will push
SBCAPE higher. Bulk shear around 35 knots will support cell
organization. The Nam3km, FV3, HRRR all show variations of
afternoon redevelopment with the Nam3km the most aggressive. Wind
would be the main threat with hail secondary.
The cold front will push through by 00z Thursday, ending the
severe threat, but it may not end the thunderstorm threat. Earlier
runs of the HRRR hinted at a secondary line moving in conjunction
with a strong upper low moving over the Great Lakes, so we`ll keep
chc PoPs in the grids for this.
- Cooler and unsettled through the weekend
A nice shot of cooler air will flow into the cwa behind the cold
front. H8 temps fall from 16c to 4c by Thursday afternoon. Friday
through Sunday will see highs in the 60s...a nice refresher from
today`s highs in the mid to upper 80s. The upper low will be
camped out over the Great Lakes through Sunday before moving east
Monday, only to be followed by another upper trough Tuesday. We`ll
keep low chance PoPs in the forecast for this but by no means will
it be raining all the time.
A slow warming trend will develop by next Monday with highs in
the mid to upper 70s by next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 859 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024
VFR continues to dominate the weather pattern through the first
half of the overnight period. A line of weakening showers and
storms moves NE across the Lake. This line of convection will have
little, if any affect on TAF sites.
However there were be several lines of showers and storms that
will move through region beginning tomorrow morning through the
afternoon. Expect lowering cigs after 10Z with the main threat
between 15Z to 19Z.
Periods of TSRA will be possible but have only VCTS at TAF sites
due to uncertainty.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024
A cold front will move across the lake Wednesday. Gusty west winds
behind the front will likely create waves that will necessitate a
Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement Wednesday night
and Thursday. Additional headlines may be needed later in the week
too as cooler air flows over the lake creating hazardous waves.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meade
DISCUSSION...04/CAS
AVIATION...Ceru
MARINE...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
357 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
Upper ridging near both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts this
afternoon with shortwaves over the middle and lower Mississippi
River Valley and a second over the Great Plains.
A complex of thunderstorms was moving into the area from the
northwest at press time and necessitated the issuance of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch until 8 PM CDT across much of the northern half
of the CWA with the primary threat of damaging winds. Will
eventually see the current complex weaken with the loss of surface
heating. Ahead of the storms, temperatures ranged from the mid 80s
to lower 90s across the area with dew points generally in the mid
70s.
As has been the case for several days, the main concerns will be
with thunderstorm potential. As long as we continue in
northwesterly upper flow, each shortwave moving toward the upper
trough position will trigger a thunderstorm complex to our
northwest at some point. The complex then moves southeastward
toward the local area and eventually weakens as it outruns the
best thermodynamic support. Global and convection allowing models
have struggled to model these complexes both in spatial and
temporal details. Seemingly over the last several days, the ECMWF
operational model and longer range runs of the HRRR have performed
a bit better than most of the other models. The NBM certainly
gives these solutions some credence and will keep those numbers,
and in the case of this evening, bump them up somewhat, at least
through 02z or so. Once things stabilize behind the convection,
rain chances should diminish quickly for the remainder of the
night.
The ECMWF and HRRR both signal another complex during the day
tomorrow, and will not go with a dry forecast like the GFS and NAM
would indicate. Still will see temperatures get into the 90s
before convection gets going again, and won`t depart from the NBM
temperature numbers tomorrow/tomorrow night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
Troughing will be exiting the area to the east by Thursday morning,
leaving a remnant boundary behind. The most likely area for the
boundary seems to be in the northern portions of the area. Areas
south of the boundary will see enhanced heating due to compressional
warming. We will still have quality moisture on Thursday with PW
around 1.9-2 inches where the boundary lays up. So, with the
heating, moisture and trigger, expect storms to develop in the
vicinity of the best surface convergence where the boundary lays up
in the area.
Drier mid-level air looks to filter into the area Friday, decreasing
rain chances while keeping the boundary somewhere in the area.
Scattered showers and storms are still possible Friday, but the
coverage will be less than Thursday due to the drier air filtering
in.
The boundary looks to become diffuse by the weekend, so that will
lead to a lack of low-level trigger for convection. With quality
moisture still in the area with PW around 1.6-1.8 inches, expect a
more summer-time isolated convective regimes Saturday and Sunday.
Medium-range guidance differs significantly beyond the weekend with
a potential front at the beginning of next week. The spatial and
temporal aspect of the front seems very uncertain at this time, but
that is not surprising given it is about a week out.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
Main question for aviation interests is convective development.
While TSRA are still well back toward KSHV, there`s been quite a
bit of SHRA development in advance of that in the past 30-60, so
we may need additional amendments to add thunder in the next few
hours. Cloud bases generally between FL025 and FL035, but direct
impacts could produce MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities. Most
convection should dissipate by 01z Wednesday. Potential for MVFR
to IFR ceilings prior to sunrise Wednesday. Based on the last few
days, certainly won`t rule out an additional round of convection
on Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
Main marine concern will be the thunderstorm threat over the next
several days. Outside of thunderstorm wind potential, we`ll have
the usual evening increase in winds to near 15 knots before they
subside again. Otherwise, no major marine issues anticipated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 90 71 89 / 40 50 40 40
BTR 75 94 76 94 / 30 40 20 50
ASD 75 93 76 93 / 30 30 30 50
MSY 77 92 78 92 / 30 30 20 60
GPT 77 90 76 91 / 30 30 30 50
PQL 74 92 75 92 / 20 20 30 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1018 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level ridge remains centered overhead. Unsettled
weather returns for the whole forecast area Wednesday and
Thursday as a series of fronts cross the region. Precipitation
chances decrease on Friday in the wake of the cold front. A slow
moving upper trough approaches the area from the Great Lakes
this weekend leading to more unsettled conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
While most areas which saw earlier convection have seen it wane,
some renewed activity is evident on local radar imagery just
west of Fauquier County. With some elevated instability noted on
the RAP objective analysis, these could persist a couple of
hours. Otherwise, any convective threats should wane overnight.
Similar to previous nights, patchy fog development is possible,
particularly where showers and storms occurred in the afternoon
and evening. Lows fall into the 60s to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A potent upper low will dive into the Great Lakes region
Wednesday into Wednesday night, eventually bringing a cold front
through on Thursday morning. The warm front will lift through
the region by mid-late Wednesday morning, likely spawning an
initial line of convection. There is a lot of uncertainty
regarding the amount of instability that will be available,
owing to morning cloudcover. However, mean CAPE values look to
be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE. The shear values to
go along with this stay below 30 knots, as much of the upper-
level energy passes well to our north. This would lead to a
lesser severe threat tomorrow. However, the flash flooding
threat is on the increase.
Looking at forecast soundings for tomorrow, there are plenty of
ingredients present to support a flash flood threat. First off,
PWATS are going to be on the order of 1.8-2" area-wide once the
warm front pushes through. Additionally, forecast soundings show
long and skinny CAPE profiles. The environment will be very
efficient at producing heavy rainfall tomorrow, so any storm
that does develop could drop a couple of inches very quickly.
Have held off on watch issuance at this time due to uncertainty
in exact location, but could see the need for one in a future
update.
After this, there may be a brief lull for a few hours before a
second line of convection develops along the pre-frontal trough.
This line will be very progressive and move from west to east,
but will be within the same environment conducive to heavy
rainfall. So a flash flood threat remains as that moves through
during the evening hours.
At least some spotty convection could continue into the
overnight hours. Low temperatures only drop to around 70 for
most, so a very warm night expected once again.
The cold front arrives Thursday morning and showers and possible
thunderstorms could linger in these same areas into the evening,
with chances decreasing over time as we dry behind the cold front.
Low temperatures drop into the 50s to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level troughing will remain overhead throughout the long term
period, bringing unsettled weather conditions. Daily rain chances
are expected primarily in the northwestern portions of the forecast
area, peaking in the afternoon with daytime heating. The best chance
for precipitation will be Sunday as a cold front is pushed across
the region. Highest chances for precipitation remain in the
northwest portions of the forecast area, with those along and east
of I-95 only having a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
There still remains a good bit of model uncertainty with the track
of a cut-off upper level low pressure system navigates eastward.
Where the low ends up going will dictate which areas see highest
precipitation chances and how much precipitation each area receives.
Temperatures each day will be in the 70s to low 80s for most with
those at higher elevations staying in the 60s. Overnight lows will
dip into 50s to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low clouds move in late tonight into Wednesday morning, and
some areas could even see some patchy fog. This would be most
likely in areas that manage to got some rain this afternoon.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring restrictions to
the terminals on Wednesday, with the best chance in the afternoon
and evening. Some showers and possible t-storms could linger
into the overnight for MRB, BWI and MTN. Conditions improve on
Thursday behind a cold front.
VFR conditions are expected Friday and Saturday with westerly winds
blowing 5 to 10 knots. Precipitation is possible each afternoon with
the highest chances being at KMRB.
&&
.MARINE...
Any 20 knot wind gusts have waned from the composite outflow/old
backdoor frontal boundary. Expect winds to stay below advisory
threshold through the overnight hours.
A frontal system arrives on Wednesday with gusty southerly
winds over the waters approaching SCA criteria by Wednesday
afternoon. Gusty winds could also occur due to thunderstorms
traversing the region during the afternoon/evening hours.
SCAs will likely be needed Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Winds diminish behind the cold front on Thursday.
Westerly winds remain below SCA criteria on Friday over the waters.
Winds remain out of the west on Saturday, with SCA criteria gusts
possible in the afternoon.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
By Wednesday, winds will pick up a bit out of the south, which
should push many areas closer to minor flood stage over the next
couple of days. This will be even further enhanced by the
presence of a New Moon which is set to happen on June 6th.
A weak cold front crosses the area early Thursday, with the
resulting west winds causing tidal anomalies to drop.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BRO/CJL
NEAR TERM...BRO/CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/CJL
MARINE...AVS/BRO/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO/CJL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
646 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
An MCV split off from the MCS over Oklahoma this morning and spun
into central AR. Short term models were keying on convection
developing in its wake this afternoon and bringing stronger storms
toward central AR around 00Z.
Some very weak convection is now developing in narrow bands behind
it...but CAPE appears limited with a bit of a cap in place.
Furthermore, HRRR runs now flipping and showing almost no convection
this afternoon. I think it would be prudent to continue with some
lower rain chances this afternoon thru early this evening...but my
overall confidence in the forecast tonight is rather low.
This morning models were showing another MCS forming over OK
overnight, moving into Arkansas by morning in a somewhat repeat
performance. Main difference is that models were trending toward
considerably heavier rainfall overnight tonight versus last night.
Short term model runs during the day were trying to develop this MCS
further north, even into NW Arkansas. Latest run at publication was
trending back south again. For the time being, I believe the best
course of action is to put highest POPs west and northwest
overnight, and trend the POPs spatially in the early morning hours
to the southeast across AR.
My primary concern with all of this isn`t the POPs, but rather the
QPF forecast. At present, the highest QPF values appear to be over
SE OK and SW AR. After consulting with neighboring offices, the
decision was made to issue a flood watch for flash flooding.
However, some adjustments may need to be made to this overnight
after we have a better idea of where the MCS will develop.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
Dry conditions are expected across the state at the start of the
period but the break in rain chances isn`t expected to last very
long. By the weekend, sfc ridging should shift east of the area
providing a return of S-SW flow ahead of a cold front expected to
sink south into the state.
The expanding H500 ridge across the West is expected to begin to
break down this weekend as a series of intense cyclones over central
Canada work their way south toward the Great Lakes. This will lead
to somewhere between a zonal and NW flow regime over the area and
will provide an avenue for a steady stream of mid-level disturbances
to move through. So, frequent rain chances and possible MCS activity
will return to the forecast.
Temperatures don`t look too out of hand through the period with
perhaps the warmest day being Friday. Portions of northern AR may
experience below normal temperatures into early next week with near
normal readings elsewhere.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
VFR conds are expected tonight with spotty SHRA lingering through
06z. After 06z, PoPs are expected to ramp up once again as a new
system moves into portions of Wrn AR/Ern OK and propagates SE with
time. CIGs should become MVFR with cloud cover expanding in
coverage. This activity is expected to decrease in intensity in
coverage the further S and E it travels through the AM hours.
Later in the afternoon, new scattered SHRA/TSRA are anticipated
across a large portion of AR ahead of an approaching cold front,
thus the mention of PROB30 groups. For the most part, winds will
be S/SWrly. Winds will switch to NW behind the front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 70 84 64 91 / 60 50 0 0
Camden AR 69 86 66 92 / 40 50 10 0
Harrison AR 66 82 61 86 / 80 20 0 0
Hot Springs AR 68 86 65 93 / 60 50 0 0
Little Rock AR 71 86 68 93 / 60 50 10 0
Monticello AR 72 86 69 92 / 30 70 20 10
Mount Ida AR 67 86 62 93 / 70 40 0 0
Mountain Home AR 68 84 61 87 / 80 30 0 0
Newport AR 71 85 65 91 / 60 60 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 71 85 68 92 / 40 70 10 0
Russellville AR 68 87 63 92 / 70 50 0 0
Searcy AR 70 85 65 91 / 50 50 0 0
Stuttgart AR 72 85 68 91 / 40 60 10 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ARZ052-053-066-130-137-
140-141-230-237-240-241-340-341.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...70
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
659 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-A few strong to severe thunderstorms expected in the far
western UP today. Not much severe weather is expected, but a
few isolated damaging wind gusts and/or marginally severe hail
cannot be ruled out (10%).
-Cold front spreads from west to east across the UP tonight and
tomorrow morning, bringing some thunder and occasional
downpours but otherwise no severe weather.
-Showery weather through at least this weekend with a trend
toward much cooler temperatures as a closed low sets up shop
over the Great Lakes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024
GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase RGB imagery shows a mixture of cloud forms
over Upper Michigan and Lake Superior this afternoon. Patches of
dense fog are over much of the open waters of Lake Superior
with some other lower stratus advecting north. Meanwhile,
stratus is breaking into stratocu over the central and eastern
areas of Upper Michigan while Gogebic and Ontonagon are starting
to see some cu fields bubbling up. This latter area will be the
area of most impactful weather this afternoon as CAMs resolve a
few strong thunderstorms over the far west later on this
afternoon, though some differ in strength. With WAA under warm,
southerly flow, temperatures have climbed well into the 70s
across the UP with a few spots already in the 80s, especially in
areas with downsloping in the far east and far west where
clearing was seen earlier than in the central.
With all of this surface warming, lapse rates at the low and mid
levels have resulted in significant gains in instability. RAP
mesoanalysis shows up to 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE along the MI/WI state
line at 18Z with some SBCIN present, but less than 25 J/kg. The wind
shear is a different story however, with effective bulk shear values
less than 20 knots except for after 22Z in the far west. Hodographs
are curved, but the magnitude is quite small. Despite this, the 12Z
members HREF has been more aggressive than the 00Z counterparts with
convective initiation this afternoon in the west, with paintball
plots of 40+ dBZ simulated reflectivity showing a smattering of
cellular convection over the western third of the UP from 21Z to
03Z. At this time, leaning towards a scattered to isolated cellular
convective mode, with a few "core dumps" that may produce an
isolated severe wind gust or marginally severe hail, but
probabilities only around 10%.
By around 06Z tonight, a cold front will arrive from the west and
spread a line of showers and weakening thunderstorms from west to
east through the west half of the UP through 12Z. No severe weather
is expected from the cold frontal line of showers, but some locally
heavy downpours are possible as mean NBM precipitation from 06Z-12Z
is over a half inch over the far west, with high-end (top 10% of
solutions) estimates of over an inch. This is still less than the
flash flood guidance, so widespread flash flooding is not a threat
with this system. This will begin to veer the winds westerly and
bring some temperature falls to the west, but the eastern two thirds
of the UP will only see lows in the low 60s to upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 447 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024
Models and ensembles trending toward a blocky pattern in the high
latitudes of North America from the middle of this week into at
least the early part of next week. Models indicate mid-level
ridging/positive height anomalies, first from ne Canada across the
Arctic Ocean, and then over western N America will force mid-
level troughing to develop from s central Canada across the
Great Lakes/eastern U.S. The western ridging deamplifies next
week, but the EPS is slower to deamplify that ridge and is less
progressive with it than the GEFS/GEPS. The positive height
anomalies will remain across the Arctic Ocean thru ne
Canada/Labrador Sea next week. For Upper MI, this pattern will
lead to above normal temps through Wed trending down to an
extended period of blo normal temps (seasonably cool) most days
thru next week. However, the large scale pattern does suggest
the potential of unseasonably cool days in the mix, particularly
Thu thru the weekend. Would not be surprised to see a day or
two with highs widespread in the 50s F w and n. The less
progressive EPS solution would allow the cool weather to persist
longer thru next week than the GEFS/GEPS. As for pcpn, the
development of the mid-level troughing will support
showers/t-storms late tonight/Wed as the lead cold front passes
across the area. Models advertise a mid-level low closing off
over the Great Lakes region by Thu, leading to showery weather.
Generally, the pattern of mid-level troughing or a mid-level low
near the area through at least the first half of next week will
support frequent opportunities of showers. Model details will
be muddied on the timing/track of shortwave impulses circulating
around mid-level low into Upper MI, so pcpn fcst will have much
more uncertainty than normal. At this time, widespread, all day
rains appear unlikely unless a well organized wave develops
within this pattern. Many areas will be dry much of the time as
showers are likely to be scattered in coverage on most days.
Beginning Wednesday, a vigorous shortwave now moving out across the
Northern Plains today will take on a negative tilt as it swings into
the western Great Lakes Wed morning. With the arrival of the
negative tilt shortwave there will be uptick in forcing/upper
diffluence along the associated cold front as it moves w-e across
the area. Precipitable water increasing to around 200pct of normal
will support locally heavy downpours. HREF 90th percentile has
streaks of 1.5 inch or higher pcpn amounts, indicating the heavier
rainfall potential with some of the convection. Elevated cape of
several hundred j/kg along and ahead of the cold front will also
support isolated t-storms. In the wake of the fropa showers/t-storms
will abruptly end, followed by clearing from w to e early Wed
morning thru early to mid aftn on Wed. Attention then turns to
secondary cold front arriving late Wed afternoon/evening in
association with another shortwave. Aloft, height falls continue
thru the day with Upper MI becoming situated under expanding mid-
level low and cooling mid-levels. With fcst soundings showing
potentially several hundred j/kg of MLCAPE building, deep layer
shear 25-35kt, and a drier profile blo cloud layer, there is a
potential for gusty wind producing storms late Wed aftn/evening
across the west half of Upper MI. While winds probably won`t reach
severe criteria, it will definitely be something to monitor late Wed
afternoon, especially if instability ends up on the higher end of
current guidance which would raise the potential of isolated
severe wind gusts. Showers/t-storms will spread into the eastern
fcst area during Wed evening with the gusty wind risk
diminishing as instability wanes.
On Thu, Upper MI will be situated firmly under mid-level low
circulation with recent guidance now showing the center over or very
near to Upper MI. Some shower activity will be ongoing to start the
day. Under cold pool aloft combined with any shortwaves swinging
around the circulation and the building of weak sfc based
instability, showers will take on a diurnal component and expand in
coverage away from the stabilizing influence of Lake Superior under
nw winds. Would expect s central and se Upper MI to see most
numerous shower coverage. Will be a cooler day with highs in the 50s
near Lake Superior for areas where nw winds are directly onshore
ranging up to the mid/upper 60s F s central. If showers/clouds are
more widespread than currently expected, highs will be lower.
Showers should diminish Thu night with the loss of diurnal
instability.
Friday into Saturday will likely be very similar to Thursday, but
with the mid-level low shifting slightly e, though diurnal shower
coverage will likely decrease a bit each day from Thursday`s
coverage. As with Thursday, if clouds/shower coverage are more
widespread, highs Fri and Sat will be lower than the current
forecast of upper 50s to mid 60s F.
Over the late weekend thru early next week, details of the structure
of the mid-level flow from s central Canada thru the Great Lakes
region is very uncertain. Models have shown little agreement or run-
to-run consistency on the expansiveness, location, movement of mid-
level low and shortwave timing/amplitude in the flow. Pattern is
certainly suggestive of daily shower potential and the ensembles
also support this by indicating persistent mid-level troughing into
early next week. Similar to the previous days, if showers and clouds
are more widespread or persistent on Sunday, high temps will only be
in the 50s across the w and n and 60s s central. Overall, it appears
the influence of the mid-level low should diminish during the early
part of next week, so would expect showers to become more
isolated at that time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024
Tonight, SAW and CMX will remain VFR and dry. Overnight, a cold
front will spread west to east across the TAF sites, and the showers
and thunderstorms from that front will usher in lower ceilings and
potentially low visibility. IWD and CMX will fall to MVFR by late
tonight and possibly to IFR Wed morning. SAW will fall to IFR by Wed
morning and then go to MVFR Wed afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 447 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024
Other than some 20-25 kt ne wind gusts over western Lake Superior
and se winds over eastern Lake Superior, winds tonight will
generally be less than 20 kts. Thunderstorms moving out over western
Lake Superior this evening ahead of an approaching trough will pose
a risk of strong wind gusts. This trough will then sweep across Lake
Superior late this evening thru early Wed aftn with more storms
possible. While wind gusts to around 20kt will continue, the showers
and thunderstorms along/ahead of the front may result in locally
enhanced winds ahead of and just behind the trough. More
thunderstorms developing over MN and moving out across western Lake
Superior Wed afternoon/evening will also pose a risk of locally
strong wind gusts. Thereafter from Wed night thru Fri, fairly steady
w to nw winds of mostly 20-25kt are anticipated with occasional
gusts to 30kt. Winds may die down slightly by Sat.
Also of note, fog will be dense at times on western and central Lake
Superior into this evening. This fog should depart with passage of
the trough late this evening through early Wed afternoon.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
for LSZ162-263-264.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...07
MARINE...Voss