Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/02/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1039 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog looking likely tonight with questions on how widespread,
how dense it could be.
- Showers and storms overnight Sunday and Monday morning.
Daytime hours on Sunday will likely remain dry for most.
- Additional storms likely (50-80% chance) on Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Monitoring the potential for organized severe
weather.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Collaborated with WFOs Milwaukee/Green Bay for a dense fog
advisory overnight. Favorable conditions exist for areas of
radiation/valley fog given higher boundary layer moisture after
a showery, cool day ahead of the surface ridge axis. Highest
HREF probabilities for 1/4 mile visibility extend from
northeast Iowa through central Wisconsin, with lower
probabilities towards I-35. A drier airmass advecting
southeastward could limit fog development somewhat, but with
little change in low-level moisture, not sure to what extent it
will impact fog potential. Some adjustments could be needed in
the areal orientation of the advisory overnight, based on
trends.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
* FOG TONIGHT - how widespread, how thick is uncertain. Dense fog
advisory not out of the question.
Challenging forecast in terms of fog for tonight and accompanying
impacts on the vsby. Morning, early afternoon rain with clearing
just in time for sundown, coupled with light winds at the sfc and
near sfc, lay the ground work for fog development. Generally,
scenarios like this tend to form the fog earlier in the nighttime
hours (closer to midnight as opposed to daybreak the next day),
potentially lifting earlier as winds start to stir toward daybreak.
Also, is it widespread or more confined to the river valleys
(soundings look like a typical fall fog setup)?
Latest SREF suggests most of the fog will develop from along the
Mississippi River eastward with 40-60% chance for 1 mile or less
vsbys. HREF paints widespread, but lower impacts fog (mostly 2-4
mile vsby). However, it suffers from differences in the short term
models that make it up. For example the FV3 says "no fog" while the
HRRR and NSSL have suggest sub 1 mile is more likely. Blend those
altogether and you get the HREF. Like the outlay of the HREF and
leaning more into the SREF and HRRR for vsby. Outcome would be
widespread fog with a lot of 1-3SM mile vsbys, but also increasing
chances for 1/4SM dense fog.
Still some uncertainties on how this all plays out and will monitor
trends closely as we move into the evening. Might need a dense fog
advisory for portions (much?) of the area.
* SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: Showers and a Few Storms
As we head into Sunday night, a shortwave trough will progress
through the region bringing convection on the nose of some warm
advection associated with an increasing low-level jet. Consequently,
expecting showers and storms to pass through the region during the
overnight hours Sunday and into Monday morning as shown in many of
the recent CAMs of which have been trending later with the bulk of
precipitation towards Monday morning. Currently, the setup with this
convection is not super impressive with timing during the overnight
and morning hours keeping instability fairly limited (200-500 J/kg
of MLCAPE). As a result, not expecting any organized strong to
severe storms but cannot rule out some gusty winds with the 850mb
jet to around 35-40 kts. Additionally, could still be a fairly
healthy rain event as well with high probabilities (70-90% chance)
for over 0.1" of precipitation and moderate probabilities (30-50%
chance) for 0.5" in the local area.
* TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: Warmer & Another Round of Storms,
Monitoring for Severe Potential
The synoptic setup for Tuesday features a 500mb ridge sitting
progressing eastbound ahead of an incoming trough and developing
surface cold front ejecting out of the Northern Rockies and Upper
Midwest. Subsidence under the ridge during the afternoon and
southerly surface flow will allow for temperatures to climb well
into the 80s with the 01.00z grand ensemble (GEFS/EC ens/Canadian
ens) showing an inter-quartile range for maximum temperatures at La
Crosse of 79 to 84 degrees for Tuesday. Consequently, expecting
Tuesday to be the warmest day of the forecast period at this time.
Additionally, southerly flow ahead of the aforementioned surface
cold front will allow for fairly robust moisture advection with the
01.12z NAM/GFS having ample 850mb moisture transport. Therefore,
expecting dewpoints and precipitable waters to increase into the
afternoon with deterministic guidance showing dewpoints in the upper
60s to lower 70s along and south of I-90. Corresponding instability
profiles from the increased moisture would be fairly conducive for
convection with the 01.12z GFS having respectable values for MLCAPE
(1500-2500 J/kg). The larger point of uncertainty in this instance
would be the shear profiles. Currently, deterministic guidance has
some differences in the orientation of the aforementioned 500mb
trough and how this interplays with the surface cold front. As a
result, confidence is low in how bulk shear profiles will
manifest ahead of the front. Additionally, the 01.00z grand
ensemble (GEFS/EC ens/Canadian ens) joint probabilities for over
500 J/kg of CAPE and 30 kts of bulk shear are relatively low
(20-40% chance) for the local area. These probabilities are
heavily CAPE driven. Will have to watch how shear profiles
resolve in short-range guidance though with the CSU machine
learning probabilities painting 15%+ mention in our local area
which combined with the favorable instability profiles certainly
means Tuesday will need to be monitored in upcoming forecast
iterations.
Regardless of severe potential, confidence is increasing for healthy
rainfall later Tuesday with the 01.12z GEFS/EC ensemble having high
probabilities (50-80% chance) for at least 0.5" of precipitation for
Tuesday. Furthermore, locally heavy rainfall may be a concern with
warm cloud depth approaching 4km and preciptable waters increasing
to around 1.75" to 2" in the 01.12z NAM/GFS runs. Storm motions will
be fairly progressive so any flooding concerns appear minimal at
this time. In any case, have opted to keep likely mention for
precipitation chances in accordance with the NBM on Tuesday
evening.
* LATE WEEK: Trending Cooler and Some Shower Chances
With the passage of the previously stated cold front, guidance
overall agrees on temperatures cooling off into the later portions
of the upcoming week with very broad trough developing within the
vicinity of the Great Lakes region. This would allow for northwest
upper-level flow allowing for some shower chances and overall
pleasant temperatures for this time of year with strong consensus in
ensemble guidance for highs to remain in the 60s and 70s across
the local area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Maintained a period of LIFR fog at KLSE/KRST early Sunday,
although confidence is somewhat higher for dense fog at KLSE
(60-90%) compared with KRST (30-60%). Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through Sunday with increasing southerly winds.
There is a lower chance (20-40%) that some weakening showers
could reach KRST by later Sunday, but the higher chances for
organized showers/storms are expected beyond this TAF period on
Sunday night.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Sunday for WIZ017-029-033-
034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ088-095-096.
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Sunday for IAZ010-011-029-
030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JM
DISCUSSION...Naylor/Rieck
AVIATION...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
afternoon and evening. Threats include large hail up to the
size of golf balls, damaging winds up to 60 mph, and a tornado
or two possible.
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms begin late tonight and
continue through the first half of next week. Temperatures
will be near to slightly above average, with highs in the
lower 70s to lower 80s through much of the work week.
- Strong west to northwest winds are possible Tuesday through
Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Going forecast remains in good shape. Only eye-catcher for this
update is there is a northward moving boundary noticeable on
KABR radar that is just to the south of the Highway 12 corridor
in the Aberdeen area. If this boundary holds together, it will
cross the state line a little after midnight, right around when
the modest low level jet starts to perk up. Not sure if this
will add any influence at all on any possible convective
development, but will keep an eye on it just in case.
UPDATE
Issued at 725 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
For early evening update, main change was adjusting low
thunderstorm chances for overnight. A look at latest RAP
soundings shows a modest but still relevant low level jet
developing over the James River Valley into parts of central
North Dakota late tonight through the overnight hours.
Therefore, have broadened out the low chances for thunderstorms
a bit. Also increased cloud cover over most locations on Sunday
afternoon given the expected convection.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
This afternoon, a weak surface high pressure was centered over
south central North Dakota, underneath cyclonic flow aloft from
a strong closed low over the northern Canadian Prairies. Skies
across the forecast area were mostly sunny, aside from some fair
weather cu across our northern tier of counties. A westerly
breeze continued up north as well from a marginal surface
pressure gradient, with highs this afternoon in the 70s across
the area.
Just upstream over Montana, an embedded shortwave in quasi-zonal
flow aloft was moving east, with an associated expansive cirrus
field. A surface low is expected to deepen in southern Montana
attendant to this wave, and move east into the Dakotas on
Sunday. Ahead of this surface low, a warm front will lift north
late tonight Sunday morning, likely triggering convection
across north central North Dakota through the morning. The
surface low and attendant cold front are also expected to cross
into western North Dakota sometime in the early morning hours as
well, bringing additional precipitation. At this point, we
aren`t expecting any severe weather in the morning either in
north central or in western North Dakota, with southeast return
flow still increasing and bringing in additional instability.
Midlevel height falls will move into central North Dakota in
the early afternoon, which is when the potential severe thunderstorm
window opens. There is still a moderate amount of uncertainty
regarding the evolution of the severe threat considering the
timing and placement of the two different fronts, as well as if
earlier convection doesn`t progress as expected. The 12Z HREF
paints max UH tracks both in north central North Dakota earlier
in the afternoon, where there is less confidence in any storms
becoming severe, and then in the south central and James River
Valley in the late afternoon and early evening, where confidence
is a bit higher. Forecast MLCAPE values range from ~1000 J/kg
in the north to up to 2000 J/kg across the south, with bulk
shear from 30 to 40 knots and modest low- and mid- level lapse
rates. Of note, guidance is advertising storm relative helicity
values up to 200 m2/s2 in the southern James River Valley, which
aids in tornado potential.
Recent CAMs agree the most on convection spreading south and
east through the afternoon, overcoming a weak cap that is
forecast across the south central/east. The general expectation
is for convection to become cluster/linear as it moves through
the James River Valley and then into eastern North Dakota, which
makes sense based on storm relative flow being more parallel
than perpendicular to the front, although this will depend on
the timing of the front. If we were to have any cells stay
discrete in the James River Valley tomorrow afternoon and
evening (potentially ahead of the front), these would have the
highest threat ceiling given the forecast environment, so
something to keep an eye on. If we do end up with a primarily
linear storm mode, it would favor mostly a wind threat, although
we could not rule out a quick spin up tornado along the leading
edge of convection.
We do still have a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) that was expanded
slightly to the west with the midday update from SPC. Potential
hazards continue to be hail up to the size of golf balls, damaging
wind gusts up to 60 mph, and a tornado or two. Latest estimated
timing has severe storm potential from 12 PM to 8 PM CDT. With
the expected progressiveness to this system, it is likely that
storms will be east of the forecast area by the late evening.
A shallow ridge builds in on Monday for a quick warmup and the
warmest day of the period, with forecast highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. The break from precipitation will be short-lived as
another quick-moving wave moves west to east, with showers and
thunderstorms likely Monday evening, through the night, and
through much of Tuesday before tapering off. The timing of the
front does not seem favorable in guidance for much severe
potential, although a low-level jet kicking in late Monday could
keep convection strong into the morning hours. The latest CSU
machine learning probabilities are now showing a low potential
for severe weather on Monday.
We then transition to a very broadly northwest flow pattern,
with near-normal temperatures most of the work week. The ECMWF
EFI is signaling the potential for strong winds across the area
Tuesday through Thursday, with the highest likelihood on
Wednesday. Late in the week, there is increasing confidence in
a stout upper ridge building in over the western half of the
CONUS. The eastern extent of the ridge will influence how warm
temperatures get, but for now there is moderate confidence in
widespread highs in the 70s to end the work week, with
temperatures warmer in western North Dakota and cooler in the
east. Precipitation chances drop off substantially under this
pattern, although this will also be influenced by the location
of the ridge axis, and if any embedded shortwaves move through.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 725 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
VFR conditions through this evening. Late tonight into the
overnight hours, isolated thunderstorms will be possible over
central and eastern North Dakota as a low level jet develops.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over western
North Dakota Sunday morning, spreading east. Some storms may
become severe Sunday afternoon, mainly over central and eastern
North Dakota.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...JJS
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
926 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024
.UPDATE...
Updated forecast for latest precipitation and thunderstorm trends
for tonight into tomorrow morning. Latest models pushing a bit
more activity through the area as a weak Pacific disturbance
crosses the area. Overall this activity should be fairly weak with
precipitation amounts under a tenth of an inch at most. However
the latest HRRR runs have steadily increased wind gusts associated
with the strongest showers/thunderstorm, with the 01/02z run
advertising near 60mph gusts into the Billings area around
midnight tonight, pushing into the Miles city area by 3 am. Timing
of winds this strong is not optimal happening after surface
inversion has taken hold, particularly given the lack of strong
convection to push the strong winds through the inversion to the
surface. While not completely discounting the isolated strong wind
gust potential, did add HRRR wind gusts into the forecast over
the top of the NBM winds. However, knocked wind gusts down to
around 35 mph at most. Observations have been showing gusts in the
mid 40 mph range over western valleys (Helena/Butte) with
convection over the past hour, so will continue to monitor this
isolated wind threat through the night tonight. Rest of the
forecast in pretty good shape. We will just have to monitor how
the shower/isolated thunderstorm activity continues to evolve
tonight. Chambers
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today through Sunday Night...
Satellite imagery show a low amplitude ridge shifting across our
region with short wave energy upstream tracking through the
Pacific NW into Idaho. These upstream waves along with a gradual
increase in PWATs (to near 0.75") will bring us a chance of
showers and weak thunderstorms tonight into Sunday (20-40%).
Mesoanalysis indicated increasing shear and CAPE (250-500 J/Kg)
at mid afternoon...especially over the southern portions of our
CWA near the foothills. By late afternoon we still expect to see
weak convection develop in our far west as short wave energy moves
into the area. Any storms will remain weak this evening, but could
produce some erratic wind gusts (maybe up to 35 mph), mainly W-NW
of Billings where CAM`s paint the best probabilities, while a
stronger cell near the foothills could also produce some small
hail due to better shear. Models suggest isold/sct convection
will hold together and continue east overnight with an associated
Pacific front. Models target areas along and north of I-94
activity with the best chance of measurable precipitation in the
overnight hours to early Sunday morning.
Some showers may linger here and there over the eastern border
counties and also the mountains early...but by Sunday afternoon
most of the forcing has moved east and subsidence takes over for
dry conditions. It looks to be a bit cooler (highs low- mid 70s)
w/ mixed west winds gusting perhaps into the 20s.
One other item to note is the southeasterly low level jet expected
to develop this evening in southeast MT. HREF shows dewpts rising
to near 50F with increasing elevated instability. However,
forecast soundings suggest a decent cap in this region, and thus
models do not initiate any convection. This is nonetheless
something to be aware of in case short wave influences manage to
erode that cap. BT
Monday through Saturday...
Monday will see a cold front move through the region bringing
precipitation chances back to the region Monday afternoon into
evening. Looking at convective potential, the ECMWF ensemble
gives the region a near 0% chance for >500J/kg of CAPE. Looking
at GFS soundings, this in mainly due to mid level lapse rates
during the day and low level lapse rates during the evening not
being steep enough. PWAT values will get over 1 in indicating a
moist environment. Models are not showing a low level jet setting
up near the Dakotas. Jet forcing also does not appear to be very
strong. Given these factors, precipitation will likely be
dependent on forcing from the cold front leading to scattered
showers and general thunderstorms. WPC clusters show disagreement
in precipitation amounts but even the highest cluster only showed
about 0.2 inches of precipitation or less. NBM is giving most of
the region a 30-60% chance of getting >0.1 inches of
precipitation. Locations that get under thunderstorms may get more
rain with local 0.25 inch readings possible.
Behind the front, 700mb winds will be strong out of the west in
the 30-40kt range over the plains and near 50kts over the western
mountains. Low level lapse rates will be in the 8-9C/km range
leading to efficient mix down for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.
Tuesday, most of the region has a >50% chance of getting a wind
gust over 40mph with locations in Wheatland County having a >90%
chance for getting a gust over 50mph. Winds Wednesday will be
similar to Tuesday with probabilities slightly lower. After the
system moves through Monday into Tuesday, ensembles are in good
agreement that some sort of ridging will return to the region
increasing temperatures and bringing dry conditions. There is
disagreement in exactly how the ridging will look which will
determine how high our temperatures get. Max temperatures Monday
will be in the low 70s in the foothills to low 80s east of
Billings. The cold front will bump down temperatures into the low
to mid 70s for Tuesday. Once the ridging takes over, Wednesday
through Saturday will see above normal temperatures in the mid 70s
to mid 80s across the region. Torgerson
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move E through
the area tonight. The best chances for thunderstorms will be near
KMLS between 06Z and 12Z Sunday. MVFR is possible in
thunderstorms. There will be isolated to scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms from KBIL W Sunday morning. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms will affect areas W and S of KBIL,
including KSHR, Sunday afternoon. Gusty NW surface winds are
expected at KMLS between 06Z and 13Z Sunday. A wind gust of 30-40
kt is possible at KBIL between 06Z and 08Z, but confidence was not
high enough to include it in the TAF at this time. Localized to
areas of mountain obscuration will occur through Sunday. Arthur
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052/075 055/078 050/074 054/079 050/081 055/082 058/083
32/T 12/T 71/N 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/U
LVM 046/074 053/071 044/071 053/079 048/083 053/082 053/081
45/T 18/T 70/N 00/N 01/U 11/U 22/T
HDN 050/077 053/081 049/076 053/080 048/082 052/084 056/085
31/U 12/W 81/B 00/U 00/U 10/U 21/U
MLS 053/077 053/081 051/074 054/075 048/080 052/083 054/081
41/B 11/B 81/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 11/U
4BQ 053/076 053/084 052/072 053/076 048/079 053/083 054/081
10/B 10/B 71/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U
BHK 052/076 051/082 049/072 050/074 045/077 048/080 049/076
33/T 12/T 71/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 11/U
SHR 048/074 050/081 047/073 050/079 048/081 051/084 053/082
03/T 11/B 61/B 00/U 00/U 11/U 21/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
955 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through early this
upcoming week. A cold front could approach late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This evening, KCLX has detected isolated light showers over the
coastal SC waters, with one or two tracking over land. Latest
runs of the HRRR and HREF have indicated that showers will
continue to develop tonight as the mid-level ridge shifts to
the east. Given the radar trends and recent guidance, the
updated forecast will feature adjustments to SCHC PoPs for
light showers and light QPF. It is not out of the question that
a couple of coastal locations could receive measurable rainfall
tonight. In addition, were warmed by a degree or two, generally
ranging in the mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday: Even though we`re under the influence of high pressure,
there is a short wave that moves through aloft. That along with
increasing moisture courtesy of a southerly low level flow, e might
actually get rain in some places. However, since MLCAPE isn`t overly
impressive, there isn`t much deep layer shear, and condensation
pressure deficits are around 100 mb, we aren`t inclined to show
anything more than slight chance/chance PoPs. Max temperatures were
derived from the MOS, NBM and NBM50Pct, equating to highs mainly in
the middle 80s away from the coast.
Sunday night: Withe the passage of the short wave, NVA develops, and
with nocturnal influences any early convection far inland on the
sea breeze will come to an end. Some of the guidance suggests that
marine activity could attempt to make a run for some coastal
sections of South carolina where the low level convergence is the
best. However, other guidance keeps any convection offshore, which
is where we leaned toward at this point. Within a southerly synoptic
flow our low temperatures won`t be as cool as recent nights.
Monday: Surface high pressure is still in control, with maybe some
weak lee side troughing forming. Another short wave might approach
late, and that along with additional moisture will promote at least
some convection. But once again, the MLCAPE and deep layered shear
are rather weak, and condensation pressure deficits are once again
close to 100 mb, so nothing more than slight chance/chance PoPs.
Something to watch for would be the DCAPE values, which are
potentially near 1000 J/kg due to dry air above 700 mb. This could
lead to some strong wind risk in the taller t-storms, and where
boundary interactions occur. Low level thickness and model consensus
supports highs in the upper 80s to perhaps 90F inland from the
beaches.
Tuesday: Ridging develops aloft, so the associated subsidence will
prevent much convection from developing. There is more MLCAPE
available, and with the sea breeze and the lee trough nearby, we
still show isolated PoPs, mainly inland. Utilizing a mixture of the
MOS and NBM guidance with 850 mb temperatures and the low level
thickness, we arrive at highs a bit warmer than on Monday, and many
places will reach 90F or greater. And with that comes some higher
dew points over the coastal corridor.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Flat riding or quasi-zonal flow will prevail aloft through Thursday,
before a deep upper low develops near the Great Lakes late in the
week. We`ll still be south of the associated trough, but this
pattern will force a cold front to likely approach late in the week.
For now we don`t have anything more than 20/30 PoPs, especially
since it`s difficult to get cold fronts into our neighborhood this
time of year. We feel more confidence on hotter conditions as 850 mb
temperatures that reach 17-18C Wednesday, are as high as 19-20C by
Friday. Max temperatures are look to be in the 90-95F range through
the period, provided the cold front doesn`t get this far southeast.
Associated heat indices Thursday and Friday could be near 100F in
many areas.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 0z
Monday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Conditions will generally be VFR through
the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: Surface high pressure over the mid Atlantic will slip
into the Atlantic tonight with northeasterly/easterly flow
currently across the coastal waters veering southeasterly
tonight. A touch of gustiness (gusts up to 20 knots) out there
this afternoon will diminish tonight with speeds largely 10 to
15 knots. Seas will run 2 to 4 feet, highest in the Georgia
outer waters.
Sunday through Thursday night: No real marine concerns outside of
any convection, with high pressure generally in control. Even with
afternoon/evening sea breeze influences, and nocturnal low level
jetting, winds will mainly be 15 kt or less, with seas no more than
3 or 4 feet.
Rip Currents: There were numerous reports of rip currents at Tybee
Beach earlier today, mainly due to the strong long shore current
reported by the lifeguards. Sunday could be similar, but given the
lack of swells, and both the in-house Rip Current Calculator and Rip
Current MOS showing low risk for all beaches, that`s what we have at
this time.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Adam/NED
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...Adam/BSH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1058 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Saturday
night into early Sunday.
- Strong south winds are expected after 10 am Sunday, gusting to
near 40 mph.
- More scattered thunderstorms are expected after 4 pm Sunday.
Some of these storms are expected to be severe, with large
hail and damaging winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal
a rather low-amplitude synoptic pattern is in place, with a
weak shortwave trough over the far western CONUS and a weak
shortwave ridge over the southern plains, resulting in mostly
zonal flow across the central Rockies into the central plains.
As these features continue to shift east this afternoon and
evening, weak vorticity lobes cresting the shortwave ridge will
aid in thunderstorm initiation from far southeast CO to the
Syracuse/Johnson City area by 21Z. Latest guidance/HREF
indicate this activity will expand in coverage and intensity,
and organize into a severe linear convective system within an
environment characterized by at least 1500-2000 J/Kg of SBCAPE
and 30-40 kts of bulk shear as it rolls across roughly the
southwestern 2/3rds of our CWA. Given dewpoint temperatures in
the 50s and temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s, DCAPE will
increase into the 1200-1600 J/Kg range, suggesting the primary
severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. However, large hail
will also be possible, especially during the early stages of
convection. Thunderstorm activity may linger well into the
overnight hours as a few CAMs depict back-building, but should
clear southwest KS by sunrise Sunday morning.
Daytime Sunday, short range guidance suggest the weak upper
level trough out west will dampen as it emerges onto the central
plains. Ahead of this weak wave, a lee cyclone in far southeast
CO will deepen to around 996-mb, supporting southerly winds to
increase across southwest KS into the 20-30 mph range with gusts
of 35-40 mph. Concurrently, 850-mb temperatures will rise by 3-5
degrees C, translating to afternoon high reaching the upper 80s
to mid 90s. Another round of thunderstorms is possible Sunday
afternoon and evening, especially west of US-283. Although, weak
shear and even larger dewpoint depressions will limit overall
coverage.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
At the beginning of the long term period, medium range ensembles
indicate nearly zonal flow will be in place atop the central
plains, with the main belt of the subtropical jet spread out
across the northern CONUS. Chances for precipitation will exist
for much of the area Monday and Tuesday as weak vorticity lobes
emanating from the Desert Southwest combine with a strong upper
level trough moving east across the northern plains, supporting
GEFS/ECMWF EPS probability of QPF > 0.01" generally in the
50-80% range. But by Wednesday, ensembles suggest the first
sign of the summertime upper level ridge over the Desert
Southwest/Intermountain West will appear and continue to build
through the end of the long term period. This pattern will
effectively eliminate all precipitation chances owing to strong
DNVA overspreading the central and southern plains. Otherwise,
afternoon temperatures will mainly be above normal, with highs
reaching the 90s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Outside of the influence of scattered showers and thunderstorms,
VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period. Radar at 04z
Sun shows thunderstorms redeveloping west of GCK/LBL, and
guidance suggests scattered thunderstorms will continue to
percolate much of the night through 12z Sun. Kept the TAFs
simple, with VCTS/CB mentions, and will amend if a thunderstorm
directly impacts a terminal overnight. After 15z Sun, strong
south winds are expected at all airports, gusting 30-35 kts. The
next round of thunderstorms is expected to develop after 21z
Sun through 00z Mon along a GCK-LBL line, then progress eastward
to include DDC/HYS 00-03z Mon. Some of these storms are
expected to be severe with large hail and erratic outflow wind
gusts exceeding 50 kts. Simply memtioned VCTS/CB 00-03z Mon for
now.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
621 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog likely east overnight
- Several periods of convection expected Sun-Tue although
confidence in details is low. Severe weather possible at times
with damaging wind the primary concern.
- Mainly dry from midweek into the start of next weekend with
seasonal temperatures
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Our weather pattern will be active later this weekend and into
early in the next work week as our progressive, low amplitude
flow persists and eventually evolves into a stronger MO Valley
upper trough late Tuesday. Although confidence in the details is
low due to varied model solutions, this will overall keep the
potential for thunderstorms of varied strength and severity in
the forecast off and on until the middle of next week when less
active northwest flow returns.
In the meantime, Iowa is in generally subsident flow behind the
mid level OH Valley short wave, and a lower level circulation
quite evident in visible satellite imagery across eastern MO.
There are still low chances for showers and a few storms central
and east early this evening however, with a few weak showers
already evident on radar. The airmass is generally uncapped with
little CINH, but some weak convergence has aided the spotty
showers east, with the latest GOES Cloud Phase Distinction
images also noting some enhancement farther west into central
IA. A few convection allowing models /CAMs/ do suggest very
isolated development, so have kept a token mention in these
areas until shortly after sunset. Effective shear is weak, so
there is little severe potential outside of a brief funnel cloud
with steep low level lapse rates generating 100+ J/kg 0-3km
MLCAPEs. Even if anything matures further, it should dissipate
with the loss of insolation leading to dry conditions through at
least the start of the early morning hours. There is little
upstream at the moment, but some CAMs suggest lingering Plains
peak heating convection could drift into western sections toward
daybreak and then dissipate with the loss of instability. Much
of the model guidance also continues to suggest some radiational
fog development east overnight, which matches pattern
recognition with light winds following lingering low level
moisture and cloudiness.
Confidence decreases later in the day tomorrow however, as is
often the case with warm season convection in these weakly
forced initiation mechanisms. ARW based HRRR and HRW ARW
solutions, as well GFS and EC parameterized solutions, suggest
peak heating development northwest with some low end severe
potential in fairly seasonal instability and shear parameter
space, while the NamNest, FV3, and other ARW NSSL WRF
solutions hold off until latest in the evening. Confidence
increases in that regard however with more uniform guidance
agreement, with an increasing potential for upstream peak
heating development maturing into a severe MCS with wind being
the primary threat. Although it would likely be elevated and
rooted around 0.5-1km per forecast soundings, 12Z HRRR across
western IA approaching daybreak depicts ESRH 500+ m2/s2 and
effective shear 50+ kts suggesting an organized MCS being
maintained with that and other CAMs noting quasi-linear
structure reinforcing the wind potential. This is also
corroborated by elevated NCAR HRRR neural network severe wind
probabilities. The complex should be weakening in time as it
crosses the MO River and moves east, but may still be capable
of damaging winds west, and even a few brief QLCS tornadoes
depending on its maturity.
Some convection may linger into day, as the forecast becomes
more nebulous with nondescript forcing, but broad but weak
moisture transport could maintain anything that lingers into the
night to some degree. Confidence increases again around Tuesday
when a maturing long wave trough brings a lobe of larger scale
synoptic lift coincident with its associated frontal passage.
This will bring one last higher chance for convection until the
pattern becomes less active later into the week and to start
the weekend with mainly dry continues in persistent northwest
flow aloft behind the Ontario/Great Lakes closed upper low. The
severe potential around Tuesday is undefined for the time being,
with GEFS based CSU machine learning solutions suggesting some
severe potential, while the deterministic GFS keeps MLCAPEs
<2000 J/kg and 0-6km shear <40kts.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
VFR conditions will prevail for most of the TAF period,
excepting a period during the early morning hours Sunday when
fog will develop over about the eastern half of Iowa. The most
dense fog should remain just east of our area, but may encroach
on MCW/ALO and perhaps OTM toward sunrise, primarily between
about 09Z and 13Z. Have included this in the 00Z TAFs, and will
examine short-term forecast trends to refine details for 06Z
update.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Small
AVIATION...Lee
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Updated the forecast this evening and overnight to remove PoPs and
mention of severe storms. Latest trends in both satellite and
various HRRR runs are proving unfavorable for convection southwest
of Artesia and farther north towards I40 to survive its journey
downstream into a stable airmass.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday morning)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Forecast area remains fairly stable early this afternoon in the wake
of the morning showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures have been
steadily warming thanks to the clear skies though and with dewpoints
still in the upper 50s to lower 60s instability will continue to
increase as we go through the late afternoon. Aloft, ridging remains
in place over the forecast area so this subsidence combined with a
cap around 650 mb will keep our forecast area dry through the early
evening hours. However, as a shortwave works through the ridge this
evening, thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain of
eastern New Mexico and then shift east. The environment ahead of
this activity will be conducive to maintain strong to severe
thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts being the biggest concern.
Theta-e axis is expected across the southern South Plains and
Rolling Plains this evening so this corridor would be most favored
to see a complex of storms to roll across. Activity is expected to
diminish early tomorrow morning however similar to this morning
nuisance showers/thunderstorms may persist through sunrise although
the severe threat will be minimal.
Surface troughing will increase tomorrow across eastern New Mexico
which will veer winds to a southerly to southwesterly direction.
These downsloping winds will help to boost high temperatures into
the low to mid 90s on the Caprock tomorrow while east of the
escarpment high temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to lower
90s. This will also help to mix the dryline farther east than the
previous few days with the dryline situated near the TX/NM state
line by the early afternoon. Convective temperatures are expected to
be breached by the mid to late afternoon hours within an environment
characterized by MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg and effective bulk shear
values of around 40 kts. Obviously any outflow boundary that remains
in the forecast area would be a focus area for thunderstorm
development otherwise the dryline should be the primary forcing
mechanism. With nearly straight hodographs, splitting supercells
would initially be favored with large hail up to tennis ball size
and damaging wind gusts to 75 mph. This activity will spread east
through the night and as it does so may begin to cluster as a cold
pool strengthens with primarily a damaging wind threat across the
Rolling Plains. The other concern with this activity is that with
several rounds of thunderstorms over the past few days localized
flash flooding would be possible as any right moving supercell will
be fairly slow moving leading to heavy rainfall. Showers and
thunderstorms should come to an end around midnight with dry
conditions continuing through the overnight hours. Some patchy fog
may be possible Monday morning especially for locations that see
heavier rainfall Sunday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Hot and dry conditions will return early next week with zonal flow
aloft and southwesterly surface winds. Triple-digit high
temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday across much of the area
with the latter being the slightly hotter day, potentially breaking
daily records. A "cold" front will move through late Tuesday
evening, although this will neither bring precipitation nor much
cooler temperatures as highs will still reach the mid 90s on
Wednesday. The next meaningful chance of showers and thunderstorms
will be later Thursday with a moist low-level ESE flow and weak
upper waves. The unsettled pattern looks to continue Friday and into
the weekend although details remain uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
A window exists for MVFR and perhaps IFR CIGs at CDS before
daybreak on moistening southerly winds. Otherwise, VFR prevails
with mostly light winds, becoming breezy late Sunday morning.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
625 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Another active afternoon is ahead today, with severe weather
possible region-wide. An outflow boundary from a nocturnal MCS that
developed over the high plains of eastern New Mexico and the Texas
South Plains and subsequently moved south has continued its slow
progression across the area, and has largely "washed out" early this
afternoon. This feature has aided in pushing the dryline westward,
with dewpoints in the 60s as far west as the western mountains (and
beyond). Concurrently, a shortwave in the quasi-zonal/weak
southwesterly flow aloft continues its gradual eastward progression,
evidenced by latest water vapor imagery and RUC analysis. This
feature will serve to increase ascent, with the first storms of the
day already beginning to develop over the Sacramento Mountains, with
towering cumulus observed over the Davis Mountains. CAMs have been
consistent with storms developing first over the higher terrain
where the aforementioned shortwave, differential heating, and help
from topography will produce what have the potential to be rapidly
strengthening storms this afternoon. All severe hazards will be
possible, including large to very large hail given steep lapse
rates, damaging wind gusts, and despite generally weak low-level
shear, supercells that manage to develop and propagate southeastward
will lend to a non-zero tornado threat. Given expected trends,
locations along and west of the Pecos River look to have the
greatest potential to see severe storms, with storms progressing
eastward through late evening, likely evolving into one or more
multicell clusters or line segments and transitioning to more of a
wind and heavy rain threat.
In the wake of storms tonight, low-level moisture will remain
elevated given persistent southerly to southeasterly surface flow.
Thus, lows will be on the mild side, and fairly close to normal for
late May, in the 60s for most and 70s along the Rio Grande and Lower
Trans Pecos. After a comparatively cooler day today, the heat cranks
back up on Sunday, with highs on target to top out in the middle 90s
to lower 100s for most. Even the mountains will climb into the 90s,
with Heat Advisory conditions likely to return for the higher
terrain of Southwest Texas as well as the Big Bend Region. Thus, a
Heat Advisory has been issued for these areas Sunday afternoon and
early evening. In addition to the heat, yet another round of strong
to severe thunderstorms is possible, mainly across eastern areas in
closer vicinity to the eastward-moving dryline. Similar to previous
days, large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns.
Storms Sunday evening will quickly exit to the east, with a
quiescent night then to follow as lows drop into the 60s west and
lower 70s east.
JP
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Little change to the long term forecast as temperatures trend upward
for much of the coming week. Zonal flow across the region will keep
the area dry. Most locations reach into the upper 90s and low 100s
each afternoon with portions of the Big Bend reaching into the 110s.
A weak ridge develops and moves nearby Wednesday and into Thursday.
A weak cold front looks to be pushed through by the end of the week
that could bring temperatures closer to normal for a few and even
introduces a chance for showers.
-Stickney
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Showers and storms will impact terminals west and southwest of
the Pecos River until rain moves out of the area by 03Z-06Z when
CIGs lift from MVFR to VFR and VFR VIS prevails. MVFR VIS or lower
is likely in any storms that impact terminals, along with gusty,
erratic winds, heavy rain and hail, and frequent lightning. CIGs
lower to MVFR in stratus from 12Z to 17Z for terminals over the
eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau before CIGs again lift
to VFR. Southeasterly winds veer to southerly by 17Z-20Z at all
terminals aside from PEQ and FST, with weakest winds Sunday
afternoon through evening likely over the Reeves County Plains and
Stockton Plateau.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 68 93 71 101 / 30 10 10 10
Carlsbad 65 101 66 101 / 40 0 0 0
Dryden 72 97 74 102 / 40 10 10 10
Fort Stockton 69 100 69 104 / 40 20 10 10
Guadalupe Pass 64 91 66 91 / 10 0 0 0
Hobbs 64 97 62 99 / 40 10 0 0
Marfa 57 96 57 96 / 20 10 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 68 95 71 101 / 30 10 10 0
Odessa 69 95 72 101 / 30 10 10 0
Wink 70 102 68 104 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Central Brewster
County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...94
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
810 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Spotty shower activity continues especially across the western
half of the UP through the evening hours, ending late. Some thunder
is possible.
- Patchy fog, possibly dense at times, is expected to develop
tonight across much of the UP.
- Frequent opportunities for showers and thunderstorms over the next
7 days, with a break expected on Sunday and Tuesday.
- Above normal temperatures through the first half of next week,
then turning cooler.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
A couple features of interest will keep in spotty shower activity
the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Quite apparent on
water vapor imagery and RAP analysis is a deep midlevel low moving
into northern Ontario. This is currently dragging a weak cold front
through northern MN. To the east, a weak wave rippling from NE WI
into northern lake Michigan has brought in some hit and miss, light
rain showers to the south-central UP. With dry lower levels across
the eastern UP, little by any way of accumulations are expected east
of hwy 41. Dry midlevel air is apparent on water vapor imagery
behind this wave, and more breaks in the clouds are apparent across
the western UP on satellite. However, additional convection is
firing ahead of a weak boundary that has been draped somewhere over
western Lake Superior today. Though some higher cloud tops are
apparent on visible imagery, they still remain fairly warm. Still,
though we haven`t had any thunder just yet, will not totally rule
this out given several hundred j/kg of SBCAPE analyzed over the
western UP.
Heading into the evening hours, as the cold front over MN works
eastward, the spotty convection over the western UP may organize
more into a broken line of showers and storms, reaching the central
UP by 00Z and largely falling apart while continuing its eastward
trek through the first half of the night. With quite a bit of
clearing throughout northern MN behind the front, would expect skies
to likewise quickly clear out from west to east across the UP
tonight. Winds turn calm, and with clearing skies and plenty of
ambient moisture closer to the surface, not to mention a sharp
temperature inversion apparent in model soundings, we could be
looking at a good night for patchy fog across the UP. This would be
most likely in areas where we will have picked up some rain.
Otherwise, expect a quiet night while temperatures fall back into
the lower 50s and perhaps upper 40s in some of the typically cooler
spots.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 431 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Expect dry conditions to return to the U.P. early Sunday morning as
the cold front currently tracking across the western UP exits into
Ontario. Weak sfc ridging returns to the area for Sunday with light
winds and abundant sunshine allowing temps to warm to around 80F
amidst deep mixing to around 6-7 kft across the interior west. Even
though there isn`t an extremely dry layer to mix into, min RH values
dipping below 30% seem likely but light winds and recent rainfall
preclude a greater fire risk. Warm temps and light winds also
instigate lake breezes that should converge across the eastern UP.
Lingering low level moisture may be sufficient for converging lake
breezes to initiate a few showers, with around 30% of HREF
members highlighting a small area around Newberry with lower
chances around 10% across the remainder of the eastern UP. The
NAMnest was one of the models that developed a shower around
Newberry and soundings indicate equilibrium levels around 10 kft
and initially deep inverted-v profiles that may evaporate most
of the precipitation. All that`s to say any rain that occurs
will be tough to measure.
Moving into Sunday night, expect mostly clear skies early before
decaying convection across the Northern Plains sends clouds our way
late. There`s also a chance for a few rain showers or perhaps a
thunderstorm across the far west, but latest model guidance
continues to be trend toward a slower onset of showers. In addition,
the model consensus shows little -if any- CAPE to work with,
probably due to cloud cover and southeast flow off the cold waters
of the lower Great Lakes. The better chance for showers and
thunderstorms is Monday afternoon/evening during peak heating if the
slower cold front is still across our area. Bulk shear values around
20-25 knots could result in a few stronger pulsey storms, but
thunderstorm chances are closely linked with frontal timing.
A drier air mass follows the cool front for Tuesday, but pwat values
stay above normal with due southerly flow extending all the way to
the western Gulf of Mexico. By Tuesday afternoon, a negatively tiled
shortwave or perhaps closed low develops across the Northern Plains
or Canadian Prairies with an associated ~990 mb surface low west of
Lake Winnipeg. As with the previous system, timing the frontal
boundary will be important for any associated thunderstorm chances
and there doesn`t appear to be a model trend at this time. However,
the most likely outcome appears to be strong to severe thunderstorms
develop to our west across the Northern Plains on Tuesday with the
decaying remnants moving into our area Tuesday night. EFI guidance
is hinting at potential for seasonably unusual CAPE and QPF Tuesday
into Wednesday across the west while NAEFS is highlighting pwats
>90th percentile implying heavy rain may be a prescient hazard.
Once the cold front passes through, the vertically-stacked low sits
over northern Ontario and brings cold air advection across our area.
As this occurs, expect additional weak shortwaves rotating around
the parent low to move across the Upper Great Lakes, bringing
additional rain shower chances to finish out the work week. Think
CAA and loss of Gulf of Mexico moisture limit thunder chances, but a
few rumbles can`t be ruled out around peak heating. CAA also results
in temperatures trending below normal late next week with highs in
the 60s and lows in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 810 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Flight conditions have returned to VFR levels despite some lingering
rain showers across the TAF sites. However, will continue to
monitor fog threat for tonight with the best chances for IFR/LIFR at
CMX and MVFR/IFR at SAW.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 431 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Light winds of 20 knots or less continue across Lake Superior
through the weekend. Winds become southeasterly Sunday night
and increase to 20-25 kts by Monday morning ahead of a cold
front slowly tracking east across the lake on Monday. A
southerly low level jet accompanies this period of stronger
winds and stable conditions across the lake indicate potential
for stronger winds at higher elevation platforms. Behind the
front, expect a return to light winds Tuesday before the next
chance for stronger winds arrives with another cold front
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Southeasterly gusts ahead of the
front and southwesterly behind the front are forecast to gust to
around 20 kts, but cold air advection may reduce stability and
allow for better mixing and stronger winds behind the front.
Thunderstorms are possible across the south central and eastern
portions of Lake Superior this afternoon and evening as a weak cold
front moves through. Thunderstorm chances return from Monday morning
through early Tuesday morning as the second cold front tracks across
the lake. Additional thunder chances return late on Tuesday and
continue through Wednesday as yet another cold front pushes through
from west to east across the lake. No severe weather is expected
from thunderstorms at this time.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162-
263-264.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...EK
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...EK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1006 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Minor tweaks to the forecast; mainly PoPs with filling in Schc
with Chc`s and adding more lkly`s to the southern plateau in the
morning. On and off showers will continue overnight as activity
moves to the NE. Have not seen any lightning strikes.
CAPE creeps in and increases early Sunday into the afternoon from
the west and southwest. If the 00Z HRRR materializes, may see
some pre-dawn showers and a couple thunderstorms for the southern
plateau and valley. Otherwise, short term forecast outlined below
is still our thinking for the nearest term.
KS
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Key Messages:
1. Scattered showers and a very low chance of thunder tonight and
Sunday.
2. Temperatures near or slightly below normal with troughing and
cloud cover.
Discussion:
We`ll continue to be in a weak longwave troughing pattern across
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with subtle shortwaves moving
across the region bringing periods of light rain showers and a low
chance of thunder. Instability is limited with poor mid-level
lapse rates, but MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/Kg on Sunday afternoon,
along with effective bulk shear of around 20 kt will be sufficient
for some organized non-severe convection. The highest precip
coverage is expected to be east of I-75 on Sunday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Key Messages:
1. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected with the best
coverage on Wednesday and Thursday and less coverage Friday to
Saturday.
2. Temperatures will rise above normal by mid-week with a reduction
to below normal by Friday.
Sunday Night through Wednesday
At the start of the period, fairly weak flow will be in place with
mid/upper ridging just to our west and a shortwave having pushed to
our east. Surface high pressure will be gradually receding to our
north and east. Embedded shortwaves and lingering moisture will be
sufficient for lingering showers and storms from Sunday, but this
activity will likely diminish with the loss of daytime heating.
Additional development is possible on Monday, but this coverage is
expected to be more limited due to increased ridging aloft and less
moisture evidenced by PWAT values closer to 1 inch. Activity will
likely be more focused along the terrain. Otherwise, this trend will
promote warmer conditions compared to recent days.
By Tuesday, the environment will become more conducive for
convection. Ridging will remain in place for much of the day, but
increasing troughing will be noted to the north and west, in
addition to more southerly flow and increasing moisture. The overall
wind profile and shear will still be fairly weak, meaning convection
will be driven by mostly thermodynamic means. Models expectedly
differ on the extent of instability, but MLCAPE values in excess of
1,000 J/kg are likely. Overall, the threat for strong/severe
convection remains low but can`t be completely ruled out if a storm
becomes tall enough.
By Wednesday, the exact flow pattern is more uncertain but will
consist of height falls and a cold front approaching from the
northwest. The flow pattern will still remain weak throughout the
layer with most indications suggesting deep-layer shear of only
around 20 kts. The thermodynamics, however, will be more notable
with MLCAPE likely exceeding 1,500 J/kg, especially in western
portions of the area. Current data suggests the afternoon to evening
being the most likely time of storms. Based on these indications,
potential for strong to severe storms is certainly higher than on
Tuesday but still somewhat uncertain. It should also be noted that
PWAT values will be approaching the 1.7 to 1.8 inch range, meaning
that efficient rainfall rates are possible, which could raise
concern for flooding. This will still be dependent on how much rain
is seen earlier in the period. Based on these indications, low
probability HWO wording will be maintained with consideration for
inclusion as we get closer.
Thursday through Saturday
By Thursday, the pattern becomes less clear with models suggesting
either a secondary frontal boundary developing to our north or
strengthening of the aforementioned one. Regardless, the front is
expected move towards the area, which will keep rain chances
elevated. The overall trend is for lessened instability and
moisture, so the threat for strong/severe storms and flooding will
be lower. By Friday, it is likely that the frontal boundary will be
near or south of the area with northwesterly flow aloft. This will
promote a drop in temperatures to slightly below normal with limited
rain chances. By Saturday, the flow becomes more zonal with
increasing moisture from the south and west. This will be sufficient
for additional low-end rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
VCSH will generally persist tonight and into tomorrow with
increased chances of a thunderstorm or two for CHA and TYS
tomorrow. This is reflected with a PROB30. Showers haven`t quite
reached TRI yet, but will in the next couple of hours. TRI also
expected to stay VFR through the period and may not see a
thunderstorm. However, CHA and TYS CIGS may drop to MVFR overnight
and in the morning. CIGS forecast to improve to VFR by mid-
afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 82 66 87 / 60 40 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 79 64 84 / 50 40 20 20
Oak Ridge, TN 61 79 64 85 / 50 40 20 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 77 61 82 / 40 60 30 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION...KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1053 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Monitoring a few surface/satellite features early this afternoon
that might give some clues as to what will happen during the
overnight period. A diffuse dryline feature is noted on surface
observations and zero-hour model analyses near the 100th meridian .
Dewpoints on the west side are in the mid-50s, and on the east side
they are in the low-to-mid 60s. Meanwhile, satellite shows the
development of several fields of cumulus clouds across western
Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas. These features are telling in the
face of wildly divergent model guidance regarding thermodynamics
this afternoon and evening. The HRRR suggests widespread mixing with
dewpoints ending up in the upper 40s, while the NAM suggests a
solution that seems more in line with current observations.
Therefore, some credence is given to the NAM`s depiction of about
1,500 J/kg of "skinny" CAPE this evening.
The current expectation is for storms to continue to develop across
the high terrain just east of the Rockies (right now satellite shows
a line of updrafts across the lee of the Sangre de Cristos) and move
east-southeastward across the Plains this evening, generally
organizing into a squall line. Sustenance of this MCS will be aided
by the development of a 30-40 knot southerly LLJ this evening across
the TX panhandle. CAM guidance has the MCS reaching northwest
Oklahoma after 10:00 pm this evening, but there`s quite a bit of
question about how far it progresses. Given the fact that the LLJ
does not appear like it will extend eastward into our area tonight,
there is some indication that the MCS will turn south from northwest
Oklahoma and weaken as it does so. With that said, damaging wind
gusts and hail to the size of quarters are possible with this
activity, primarily between 10:00 pm and 2:00 am.
These storms may leave behind an MCV tomorrow morning (after all,
what`s one more MCV after all of the ones we`ve had recently?).
There may be a secondary maximum in storm potential tomorrow morning
somewhere further to the south and east around central Oklahoma.
While the severe risk with this potential round would likely be on
the lower end, the chance for lightning and heavy rain will be
watched closely.
Expect a little more in the way of return flow tomorrow afternoon to
bring in low-70s dewpoints across most of the area. This should at
least keep highs from getting well into the 90s, so one more day in
the upper 80s can be expected. Traditional HREF CAMs are bearish on
the potential for storms to develop, but by all measure of the
ingredients, there will be plenty of moisture/instability in place
to sustain whatever forms off to our west. In contrast to previous
nights, the LLJ should be rather strong across much of our area.
Therefore, tomorrow evening will be watched closely for MCS
potential once more.
Meister
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
If you`re looking for an end to stratus and low-to-medium chances
for storms, then the end is potentially in sight. Of course, the
trade-off is that we could see highs rising well into the 90s by the
middle of next week, but you don`t get one good thing with
the weather without sacrificing another this time of year.
Another weak signal for an MCS coming south out of Kansas into north
central Oklahoma was evident on the 12Z HREF early Monday morning.
As with all of the other signals for storms, we`ll watch this
closely. In all likelihood, there will be a remnant outflow boundary
left behind by all of these storms on Monday afternoon. Given the
rich boundary-layer moisture content, an earlier-developing LLJ, and
the presence of the boundary, we might shake things up on Monday
afternoon and evening by seeing storms actually develop in our area
instead of moving in from elsewhere. There is currently a Marginal
(Level 1/5) risk of severe weather associated with this, and we`ll
continue to monitor.
From there, we look likely to enter at least the northern periphery
of the subtropical ridge, which will be centered somewhere over the
Stake Plains from Tuesday through Thursday. Though the mid-latitude
jet won`t retreat too far north, introducing some uncertainty and
potential for northwest flow storms, right now the model consensus
is that the middle of next week will be drier, sunnier, and hotter
than the last week or so has been. Predictability begins to decrease
toward the end of next week, but there is some signal for a trough
to dig in to our northeast, which could bring us back into a
slightly cooler northwest flow pattern.
Meister
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
A thunderstorm complex will move through northwestern Oklahoma
this morning and diminish as it moves southeast into central
Oklahoma. Severe wind gusts may occur at KWWR and KCSM before
daybreak Sunday. Ceiling and visibility are expected to remain in
VFR category apart from thunderstorms. Moderately gusty south wind
is expected Sunday afternoon. More storms are expected Sunday
evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 85 69 86 69 / 20 30 30 30
Hobart OK 88 67 89 67 / 10 30 30 30
Wichita Falls TX 88 70 89 71 / 20 10 30 30
Gage OK 88 65 90 66 / 30 50 20 20
Ponca City OK 84 67 86 69 / 40 30 30 40
Durant OK 87 68 88 71 / 20 10 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...09
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
240 PM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Above average temperatures and mainly dry conditions will persist
through early next week with a couple of weak weather systems
enhancing afternoon winds and allowing for precipitation chances
later today and Monday within northern portions of the region.
Confidence is high in a significant warmup for the middle to late
portions of next week as highs approach 100 degrees in the hottest
western NV valleys, with afternoon thunderstorms also possible in
the later half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Points:
* Above normal temperatures continue today along with mostly dry
conditions with the exception of a 10-20% chance of isolated
showers for areas north of I-80 later this afternoon.
* While dry conditions are anticipated on Sunday, the region sees
more chances for isolated showers for areas north of I-80 on
Monday with the entire CWA expecting 30-40 mph wind gusts possible
generally out of the west.
* Triple digit (or close to it) day high temperatures are possible
within the region on Wednesday through Friday along with some
diurnal showers/thunderstorms in some portions on Thursday through
Saturday.
Current satellite imagery shows some clouds developing in areas
along and north of I-80 within the region with radar data reporting
some isolated showers within Lassen County this afternoon. As the
latest RAP analysis of the upper air pattern over the CWA shows a
weak trough over the CWA, the 18Z HRRR forecasts some isolated
light showers possible (10-20% chance) in northern Lassen, Washoe,
and Pershing counties along a convergence zone where clouds are
currently developing through almost 8 PM PDT. There is a chance
though that this precipitation may just be virga due to drier air
layer seen closer to the surface. West-northwesterly winds gusting
up to around 25-30 mph are expected within the CWA through this
evening before dying down overnight.
On Sunday, forecast guidance shows the upper air trough moving to
the west allowing for a northwesterly upper air flow over the CWA as
a weak upper air ridge trails the trough. This will allow for warm
temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy afternoon winds out of the
west-northwest throughout the region. For Monday, models depict
another trough passing through the northwestern CONUS placing the
CWA underneath its base during the afternoon hours. Enhanced
zephyr breezes are expected once again at the surface on Monday as
a result with winds gusting up to around 30-40 mph in the
afternoon and evening hours (possible Lake Wind Advisory?). Models
also show precipitation chances between 10-50% within the
northern half of the CWA during the morning hours with the higher
chances closer to the OR border around where a cold front sets up.
Daytime high temperatures on Monday look to cool slightly as a
result ranging between the upper 60s and middle 80s.
For the remaining days of next week, ensemble guidance shows a
ridge moving over the CWA on Tuesday and Wednesday before the CWA
starts to take a southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday being
underneath the western portion of the upper air ridge. This flow
then looks to turn more southerly late Friday into Saturday as a
trough moves over the Pacific Coast and pushes the ridge eastward.
At the surface, daytime high temperatures look to get hotter with
portions of the CWA nearing the 90 degree mark on Tuesday. On
Wednesday, the latest NBM probabilities show around an 80-95%
chance of daytime highs at 90 degrees or above within western NV
and a portion of adjacent CA. The coverage of these probabilities
increases on Thursday while there is also around a 20-50% chance
for highs to reach 100 degrees or above in some portions of
western NV. NBM probabilities for daytime high temperatures of 90
degrees or higher for Friday and next Saturday look once again to
be between 70-90% for western NV and portions of adjacent CA. The
latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for MaxT looks to be
between 0.7-0.9 on Wednesday through Friday, so this also signals
the potential for above normal and hot temperatures. Please
prepare now for this upcoming risk for this heat while you can!
Models also show the potential for more precipitation chances
towards the tail end of next week though there is still some
uncertainty in coverage and probability at this time. The ECMWF
EFI for CAPE shows a bulls-eye near Lake Tahoe and also down in
Mono County on Friday, so these areas may be at a higher risk to
see some convection. Will continue to monitor this and update the
forecast as needed. -078
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the rest of today and into
Sunday. Increased winds out of the westerly winds expected this
afternoon for most TAF sites (southwesterly for KMMH), with gusts
peaking around 25-30 kts between 20-06Z. Some brief light to
moderate turbulence may be possible during that time as well.
Northern portions of the CWA may see a slight chance for an isolated
shower or two later this afternoon and evening. -078
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1040 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system in the Mid Mississippi Valley will track east
tonight and Sunday bringing showers and thunderstorms to the
region. Daily showers and thunderstorms continue for the region
through Thursday, before drier weather returns for the end of
the week. After Sunday, temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal for much of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM EDT Sat Jun 01 2024
Precipitable water values are hovering around 0.5 inch across
the region late this evening. These values should increase
overnight (especially after midnight-2 a.m.), as boundary layer
winds veer slightly more southwestward and increase in speed.
This should result in a pretty quick moistening of the lower
troposphere through the pre-dawn hours.
That said, I`ve decided to leave well enough alone with the PoPs
overnight. While it still looks like the greatest odds of seeing
precipitation reach the ground will be after sunrise, it`s not
outside of the realm of possibility a few spotty light rain
showers could be seen overnight. I made a few tweaks here and
there to the other sensible weather elements, but the overall
forecast appears to be in good shape for now.
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sat Jun 01 2024
Ongoing forecast appears to be on target early this evening.
Mostly high-level clouds continue to increase from the west,
thanks in part to a shortwave trough moving across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. A mosaic of radars to our west shows at least
a scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms associated
with the disturbance, but the big question (in my mind at least)
is when/if the precipitation will arrive in our area.
CAMs remain consistent in bringing some of this precipitation into
our western counties overnight a couple of hours before sunrise.
However, the lower part of our atmosphere remains dry, which isn`t
too good if you`re a cloud that produces rain that wants to reach
the surface. As the 850hPa flow strengthens, the boundary layer will
moisten over the next 24 hours. I`m just not sure it`ll be much
before Sunday morning. For now, I`ll let the ongoing forecast ride
and wait-and-see what this evening`s sounding shows.
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...
Key message:
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms return for late tonight into
Sunday
A short wave and the associated showers and thunderstorms over the
Tennessee Valley was spreading high clouds into the area today.
Cloud cover will continue to increase overnight. Will be using a
blend of the 3km NAM and RAP guidance for the leading edge of
precipitation tonight.
Low level wind will be out of the south-southwest tonight and Sunday
with increasing wind speeds over the mountains by early Sunday
morning. Precipitable water values this morning were in the 0.25 to
0.50 inch range. Expecting a quick return of deeper moisture with
precipitable water from 1.0 to 1.5 inches by the end of the day
Sunday. Air mass will be saturating from the top down and this may
delay the onset of the precipitation compared to the timing
suggested in the models. Confidence high that any rainfall will
remain west of Virginia and North Carolina through 03Z/11PM.
All the cloud cover tonight and surface dew points rising into the
upper 40s to mid 50s will result in warmer minimum temperatures than
the past couple of mornings. Similarly, the clouds and precipitation
on Sunday morning will prevent a large rise in temperatures. Models
were not showing much clearing behind the short wave on Sunday.
Maybe enough in the mountains to allow for enough heating and
instability to support the development of thunderstorms in the late
afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
1. Chances for mainly daily afternoon showers and storms.
We start out with a departing upper shortwave and some brief ridging
to the area for Sunday night into Monday so there should be a
decrease in shower/storm activity during the period with a low end
chance for some diurnally driven development Monday afternoon. For
Tuesday into Tuesday night, there doesn`t look to be any key feature
to weigh into for influencing the area as there could either be
split flow aloft, continued weak ridging, or possible moisture
advection with a weak wave approaching from the west. Will keep it
general chance for convection given the various
solutions/uncertainty.
Max temps Monday should be a bit above climo norms, then warmer for
Tuesday especially if there is any continued weak ridging.
Forecast confidence is medium.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1. More widespread shower/storm chances for Wednesday and possibly
Thursday.
2. Drier conditions or less convective activity finally could return
Friday.
For Wednesday, stronger enhanced moisture advection and an elongated
front looks to phase with an amplifying upper broad trough mainly NW
of the area near the upper plains and Great Lakes, and a weaker
shortwave piece of energy that could push across the TN Valley/Mid-
Atlantic. This should be our next greater chance for more widespread
or organized showers and storms. A secondary weaker front could
traverse into the area on the heels of the Wednesday system along
the transitioning NW flow in the southern extent of a possible very
broad and deep closed upper low. Of all days, Friday could be the
driest if we get a push of reduced humidity behind that second
fropa. Uncertainty exists thereafter with the evolution of the
upper low and what waves may come across its south.
Max temps progged to be near to above normal during period.
Forecast confidence is medium.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sat Jun 01 2024
A shortwave trough traversing the OH and TN Valleys early this
evening continues bringing a mostly Cs deck into the region from the
W. Expect the clouds to thicken and gradually lower overnight, as a
strengthening boundary layer flow continues to moisten the lower
part of the atmosphere. Despite the expected (eventual) OVC skies,
CIGs should remain VFR across the region through 02/1800 UTC.
Probabilistic guidance suggests that there could be some CIGs,
possibly into MVFR territory, after 02/2100 UTC. And while there may
be some BINOVC Sunday after passage of the shortwave trough, I don`t
think it`ll be much.
Radar mosaics to our W continue showing at least a SCTD coverage of
SHRA/TSRA associated with this shortwave. Question is how much of
this will reach our area before 02/1200 UTC. Bottom line is that
a lot of dry air still remains across our region as of this
writing. Right now, I will refrain from mentioning -SHRA in the
evening TAFs and continue the use of VCSH after 02/1200 UTC
given my overall confidence of measurable RA being seen at any
one specific terminal.
Winds should mostly be L/V from the S tonight, then increase to 5-10
kts. Sunday. Some higher gusts may be seen, especially in the usual
spots.
OUTLOOK SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night-Tuesday night: Mostly VFR, but ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA
could result in periodic restrictions through the period. Some BR is
also possible, especially in valley locations.
Wednesday-Thursday: Greater likelihood of restrictions/MVFR (or
lower) flight categories due to SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/DB
NEAR TERM...AMS/DB
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...DB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
905 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Convection has mostly diminished this evening. The focus for
redevelopment early Sunday morning will be across coastal sections
of Apalachee Bay and offshore where several HRRR runs have
indicated that a band of storms could develop. Elsewhere, only an
isolated shower or storm is expected for the remainder of tonight
with activity picking up again during the day on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
A weaker mid and upper level shortwave trough looks to pass through
the deep south on Sunday, which will provide the main focus for
shower and thunderstorm development across the region. Overall the
highest rain chances are around 50-70% across the Tri-state area
with deep tropical moisture remaining in place. Thunderstorm
development looks to be a more traditional June summer convective
day, with storm initiation expected later in the afternoon and
evening as the day heats up. PWATs will generally be in the 1.6-1.8
inch range, which is enough to produce extremely efficient rainfall
rates across the region. Given these values, there will be a threat
for localized flash flooding with thunderstorms that become quasi-
stationary over the same areas for extended periods of time. Along
with the threat for localized flash flooding, a few storms could
produce strong gusty winds with more vigorous downbursts that
develop. This will partially be aided by DCAPE values in the 800-
1000 J/Kg range tomorrow. Thunderstorms should quickly diminish
within 1-2 hours of sunset Sunday evening.
Look for low temperatures in the morning look to generally fall into
the upper 60s areawide. High temperatures look to climb into the mid
to upper 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
The broad upper trough that will move across the Southeast States
on Sunday will start to exit off to the east on Sunday night. Weak
upper ridging will build in from the west on Monday and Monday
night. Our 500 mb flow will transition from cyclonic to anti-
cyclonic, and weak surface high pressure will develop and drop
anchor over the northeast Gulf. Against this backdrop, modest
mid- level drying will reduce convective coverage on Monday,
compared with Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
A drier pattern with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will
prevail. The upper pattern will amplify, with a strong upper high
developing over the Southern U.S. Rockies and Southern High
Plains, resulting in downstream NW flow aloft across the Tri-State
area. Meanwhile, a bubble of weak surface high pressure will
persist over the northeast Gulf into Thursday. Surface dewpoints
will mainly be in the 60s, except low 70s at the coast. The drier
mid-level air mass will amount to Precipitable Water (PW) values
bouncing around in the marginal 1.4 to 1.6 inch range.
From late Thursday through Saturday, the northwest flow aloft will
try to push a cold front into the Southeast States. It looks like
the tail end of the front could brush by the forecast area. The
forecast acknowledges this with a modest increase to scattered
coverage of thunderstorms. Ensemble means only increase PW values
a little in advance of the front, so scattered coverage should do
it for now.
After the front brushes by, a drier air mass should arrive.
Surface dewpoints should more squarely fall into the 60s, with 50s
possible over AL/GA. Though ensemble plumes show a large range of
possible PW values next weekend, the ensemble mean dries into the
1.0 to 1.2 inch range. This would lead to convective shutdown next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through
tomorrow afternoon excluding KDHN which may see MVFR visibilities
and ceilings periodically from 09-12z. Around 18z tomorrow,
scattered thunderstorms are expected throughout the region
represented by VCTS this TAF cycle.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Earlier today, Buoy 42036 observed 7-foot wave heights with a
southeasterly wave direction. The buoy is down to observing 5-foot
wave heights, but those higher waves will take into this evening
to traverse the northeast Gulf waters. In general, winds and seas
will be on a decreasing trend from now through Sunday afternoon,
but there will take until Monday for the churned-up Gulf waters
to fully respond to the improving weather.
From CWF synopsis...Through Sunday morning, strong surface high
pressure east of the Carolinas will support moderate to fresh
southeast breezes. By Sunday afternoon, a small bubble of high
pressure will develop over the northeast Gulf and persist through
Thursday morning, supporting only light and gentle breezes. The
small high pressure center will move south of the waters on
Thursday, and a weak cold front will enter northern Mississippi
and Alabama. So look for a freshening westerly breeze on Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Dispersions look to lower across the region the next couple of days,
with fair to good afternoon values forecast. This is partially
due to slightly lower mixing heights expected both Sunday and
Monday. Transport winds look to remain predominantly southerly to
southeasterly becoming southwesterly by Monday evening. Overall
there are no fire weather concerns the next couple of days;
however, there is a 60-80 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the region on Sunday. These chances look to
lower on Monday and Tuesday as upper level ridging settles into
the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Looking ahead to Sunday, a more typical summerlike scattering of
afternoon thunderstorms is expected, yielding large areas with no
rain, dotted with pockets that get a quick few inches of rain.
These small pockets of heavy rain will be vulnerable to short-
duration runoff issues, especially in urban areas and poor
drainage areas. However, this kind of rainfall pattern will not
lead to river flooding.
Beyond Sunday, the chances for heavy rainfall greatly diminish, so
no new flooding is expected into next weekend.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 70 86 68 91 / 20 70 20 40
Panama City 70 86 72 87 / 20 40 20 20
Dothan 67 86 68 88 / 20 60 20 20
Albany 68 86 67 89 / 10 70 30 30
Valdosta 70 87 67 90 / 10 60 30 40
Cross City 68 89 67 91 / 10 60 20 40
Apalachicola 74 83 73 85 / 20 50 20 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Haner