Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/01/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
811 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024
.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024
Frontal boundary currently stationary across the Laramie Range this
evening with westerly winds at Laramie and south to southeast
winds reported about 10 miles east of the highest foothills of
the Laramie Range. Do not expect this front to eject eastward
until early Saturday morning. With increasing east to southeast
winds over the high plains and current obs showing increasing
dewpoints (moisture advection), added patchy fog to the
forecast. Do not think the fog will be dense, but ceiling of 300
to 800 feet is close enough for fog...especially along the
elevated ridges. Fog or low stratus is forecast to dissipate
quickly Saturday morning as the front lifts northeast as a warm
front...this will set the stage for isolated or widely scattered
severe thunderstorms east of I-25 Saturday afternoon and evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue through the weekend. A few storms may have the potential
to become strong to severe each day.
- Warm and dry weather is expected most of next week, aside from an
uncertain potential for a cold front which could bring some
shower/storm activity on Tuesday or Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024
Surface high pressure located over southwest South Dakota this
afternoon creating an easterly surface wind component over the
eastern half of the CWA. Stratus this morning east of the
Laramie Range has been persistent and slow to break up in
southeast low level upslope flow. 1PM temperatures remain quite
cool with upper 50s in the Panhandle and southeast Wyoming
plains east of the Laramie Range. Cheyenne finally broke out
maybe an hour or so ago. Latest SPC Mesoanalyst page showing
quite a bit on CIN across the Panhandle into southeast Wyoming
in these southeast winds and stratus. Where skies are
clearing...current SBCAPE has risen to 500-1000 J/KG across
western Laramie County into southern Platte County. Lack of
surface heating from the low clouds shows SBCAPE not rising too
much through the afternoon with low level CIN returning by 00Z.
Given the persistent stratus...do not think we will see much
this afternoon convection wise. Another late night show possible
as a dry cold front drops into the southeast Wyoming plains as
parent upper shortwave tracks across eastern Montana and western
SOuth Dakota. HRRR and RAP simulated radar showing convection
developing across the northern Nebraska Panhandle towards 06Z
tonight that could become strong to severe for a time through
11Z.
Really questionable on severe convection Saturday as GFS showing
really dry air pushing into the Panhandle. Dryline on the GFS
pushes through the Panhandle by 21Z Saturday. So its not
matching up well with peak heating. Confidence not high on
severe convection Saturday afternoon/evening and the SPC Slight
Risk area. Guess it depends on timing of the dryline moving
eastward. A slower timing would improve severe convection
chances. Later shifts will need to watch the timing of the
dryline push.
As for Sunday...it all depends on the timing of the dryline
push on Saturday. Could see a dry forecast for Sunday...but for
now...kept chance PoPs (30-40 percent) for Sunday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024
The long term looks relatively uneventful with mostly dry and mild
conditions expected throughout next week. Quasi-zonal flow for the
first half of the work week will lead to breezy and windy conditions
across much of the CWA. A strong shortwave trough passing just to
the north of the CWA on Tuesday will lead to the greatest potential
for high winds across the southeast Wyoming wind prones. The GFS has
700 mb wind speeds of 50 to 60 kts, and elevated CAG to CPR 700 mb
height gradients. In-house guidance is also pinging the potential
for high winds around the wind prones. Cannot rule out some slight
precipitation chances with the passage of this shortwave either.
Cooler temperatures can also be expected on Tuesday as the shortwave
ushers in slightly cooler 700 mb air. By Wednesday, ridging begins
to build over western CONUS, leading to a warmer and drier airmass
infiltrating the CWA. Temperatures through Friday will gradually
increase, with most locations seeing highs in the 80s by Friday.
Minimal precipitation chances are expected during this time frame as
subsidence keeps conditions dry.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 505 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible near the
KCDR terminal, but the primary aviation concern will be low
ceilings and potentially some fog across the Nebraska terminals
and KCYS. Could see MVFR to near-IFR conditions at KCYS, with
similar conditions at KBFF, KCDR, and KSNY. KAIA looks to drop
into the IFR to near-LIFR conditions overnight as ceilings crash
to 700ft and visibility is reduced to 2SM. Fog and low stratus
should move out of the terminals by 14Z and VFR conditions will
return. Some sites could see an oscillation between SCT010 and
BKN010 leading to frequent changes between good conditions and
poor conditions.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...AM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
527 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Several more opportunities of rain in the forecast from
tonight through Monday morning
- Highest severe risk looks to be Saturday with downburst winds
being the main threat
- High confidence in 90 degree temperatures in southwest Kansas
early next week
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
18z observation show residual cloud cover from last nights
storms and a passing shortwave in central and southwest Kansas
keeping temperatures down across the region. In the upper
levels a shortwave moving over the Colorado rockies is
developing and thunderstorms are starting to form along the I-25
corridor.
For tonight storms are expected to develop from the Denver
metro south to near Trinidad through the afternoon and approach
southwest Kansas between 00-02Z. CAPE values at this time are
forecast to be around 750-1000 J/kg and bulk shear will be in
the 40 kt range so marginal severe storms are possible with hail
up to quarters and gusty winds mainly from the Colorado border
to US 83. Highest rainfall amounts will also be in these areas
as we could see 0.25-0.75 inches of rain in the stronger storms.
Storms should progress eastward after midnight and become more
isolated to widely scattered before ending by sunrise.
Saturday we will start out with residual cloud cover in the east
and sunshine in the west. By mid to late morning short term
models are showing an upper level shortwave in southwest Kansas
and HRRR/RAP models both have a line of convection breaking out
around 18Z along the US283 corridor. Storms will most likely
have an low CAPE in the lower levels and around 1500 J/kg CAPE
in the mid to upper levels and 40 kts bulk shear. These initial
storms could have the threat of hail to golf ball size and wind
gusts to 60 mph. Storms should quickly move into central Kansas
by late afternoon.
Saturday night another 700 mb shortwave should develop
thunderstorms in eastern Colorado and enter western Kansas by
around 03Z. If this area isn`t affected by the afternoon
convection we should have enough CAPE and shear that severe
storms with quarter hail and winds over 60 mph are possible. As
the storms move further east the HRRR has the complex evolving
into a long squall line moving through much of western Kansas
during the overnight hours spreading widespread rainfall and
downburst potential through 08Z. Depending on how much
instability we have remaining from the afternoon convection will
largely determine the severe threat for the overnight storms.
SPC has the whole area under a slight risk mainly for wind gusts
and this is certainly the case Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Ensembles show the upper level pattern in the long term staying
mainly zonal through next Tuesday and then a large ridge
developing for Wednesday and Thursday. Overall it should be
mainly quiet with the exception of Sunday where another passing
shortwave will develop in northeast Colorado and thunderstorms
are expected to move across mainly northwest and north central
Kansas. These storms should also drop an outflow boundary/cold
front for Monday.
Ensemble clusters for temperatures next week are showing higher
confidence of 90 degree temperatures next week with the mean of
the ensembles in the lower 90s and some of the outliers in the
upper 90 degree range. With the warmer air mass in the desert
southwest expanding into the central and southern plains
forecasting 850 mb temperatures in the 22-25(C) range and the
lack of clouds and storms we have high confidence in this warmer
stretch of weather.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Light easterly wind this evening with VFR conditions as the cu
field remains around 7kft. Clusters of high plains convection
may be coming out of Colorado after about 5z and spreading
across west central KS, potential reaching vicinity of GCK/LBL
and possible even DDC between 7 and 9z. Low chance for briefly
reduced visibility in moderate to heavy rain. HRRR model suggest
some risk for LIFR type stratus or fog development near or at
KHYS around 10-14 UTC.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Russell
Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified...
Sat-Tue...High pressure will push seaward with a trailing ridge axis
extending westward across north Florida into early next week. The
pressure gradient will remain tightest across the southern waters
and will support 20 kts through Sat so continue a Small Craft Adv
(SCA) south of Sebastian Inlet until 02Z/10PM Sat night, but will
end SCA across the Brevard waters at 14Z/10AM. Conditions gradually
improve Sun through Tue as the trailing ridge axis settles across
north FL and eases the easterly pressure gradient which will still
support 10-15 kts. Seas reach 6-7 ft in the Gulf Stream south of the
Cape on Sat. Seas will fall below 5 ft offshore Sun. Seas 3-4 ft Mon
and 2-3 ft Tue.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Through Friday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024
For the weekend, high pressure will push SE and off the Carolina
coast Sat then push seaward Sun with a trailing ridge axis
extending westward across north FL. The wind flow will veer
Easterly and remain quite breezy/gusty on Sat, even windy at the
coast 15-25 mph with higher gusts. On Sun, the pressure gradient
eases as the high moves away and its ridge axis settles closer to
the area so not quite as breezy. While a mostly dry airmass will
remain in place, there should be enough moisture across southern
sections to produce isolated to scattered showers (20-30%) moving
onshore the Treasure coast. Models are trying to hint at a little
moisture even pushing further northwestward on Sun, but remain
skeptical. Max temps will be very close to seasonable with mid to
upper 80s coast and lower 90s inland. But the persistent onshore
flow will produce smaller diurnal temp ranges along the coast,
keeping min temps there in the mid 70s, possibly upper 70s. Next
week, the dry airmass will gradually modify with rain/storm
chances slowly increasing 20-40 percent Mon, 30-40 percent Tue-
Thu. Temperatures will also begin a slow climb, returning to the
mid 90s interior Wed-Thu.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024
VFR continues with steady northeast winds becoming easterly on
Saturday. Gusts 15-25 KT will diminish overnight before resuming
during the day on Saturday. A few BKN cloud bases to around 4 KFT
possible along the Treasure Coast by later Saturday afternoon
(after 20Z).
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024
Sat-Tue...The breezy/gusty onshore (ENE/E) flow will continue
into the weekend as the pgrad remains fairly tight. Shower and
lightning storm chances will remain below normal through the
weekend. The best chance for convection will be along the Treasure
Coast. Min RH values will hover near 35% across interior sections
each afternoon while holding between 45% and 55% along the coast.
The increase in wind speeds will produce Very Good to Excellent
dispersion values and combined with increasingly dry fuels, will
produce very sensitive fire weather conditions thru at least Sat
across all of east central Florida. Any new or ongoing fires may
spread rapidly. Scattered showers and storms should gradually
increase in coverage next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 72 85 71 86 / 0 0 10 20
MCO 72 87 70 88 / 0 10 10 40
MLB 76 85 74 85 / 0 10 20 30
VRB 76 86 73 86 / 0 10 20 40
LEE 70 89 69 90 / 0 10 10 30
SFB 70 88 69 90 / 0 0 10 30
ORL 72 88 71 89 / 0 10 10 30
FPR 74 86 72 85 / 0 20 30 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ552-572.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ555-575.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Heil
DECISION SUPPORT...Schaper/Watson