Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/30/24
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
601 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will focus over the
northern mountains and eastern plains this afternoon and evening. A
few storms across the east could become severe late this afternoon
into the evening hours. Afternoon storm activity is expected to
continue across eastern NM Thursday and Friday and potentially
extend west into central NM on Saturday. Drier air infiltrates from
the west Sunday, helping temperatures climb to around 5-10 degrees
above seasonal averages. Above average temperatures are dry weather
will likely prevail early to mid next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
Isolated to scattered convection has developed over the high terrain
this afternoon. Since the moisture boundary pushed further west than
expected overnight, a few updrafts with a little lightning have
developed over the western high terrain as well. This showers and
storms could produce localized gusty winds as they drift eastward
towards the Rio Grande Valley. Storms that move off the Sangre de
Cristo mountains into the eastern plains will attempt to organize,
but only 20-30kts of bulk shear suggest that any severe storms will
be pulsy in nature. There is ample instability across the east-
central and northeast plains for storms to tap into, but model
soundings also show a large cap that they will need to overcome.
Previous runs of the HRRR indicated the potential for storms to
continue past midnight, but recent guidance has backed off that
solution.
Thursday afternoon`s storm activity will focus across far eastern NM
along the dryline. A westerly wave should provide enough lift for
robust, potentially severe convection across the far northeast.
Storms will likely cluster together as they move eastward into TX
during the evening, sending an outflow boundary south and west,
likely squeaking through the gaps of the central mountain chain by
early Friday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
Dryline storms are likely once again Friday in eastern NM with the
best chance for severe weather across the far northeast near the CO
border. There will likely be more storm activity than today or
Thursday so the chances of gusty east winds in eastern Albuquerque
and potentially Santa Fe as well will be increased for Saturday
morning. With low-level moisture in place in the wake of the gusty
east winds and a shortwave moving overhead, convective activity
could extend as far west as the Rio Grande Valley on Saturday. Dry
air advection behind this shortwave will limit storms to the far
eastern plains on Sunday and help temperatures soar to the highest
values of the season thus far in western and central NM. The middle
Rio Grande Valley will be pushing 95F and Santa Fe could approach
90F. Long-term ensemble guidance is in good agreement that ridging
will continue to build over the western US early to mid-next week,
helping temperatures climb even higher. There is some uncertainty
with the location of the ridge, with some models show the axis over
the west coast and others showing it along the spine of the Rockies.
Both would indicate above average temperatures for most of New
Mexico, but the west coast ridge would increase the chances of
backdoor cold front intrusions into eastern NM.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
Isolated showers and storms across the northeast and east central
plains could become briefly strong to severe with damaging winds
and hail and may impact KTCC between before 30/05Z. Given the lack
of storm coverage this afternoon, unlikely to see low clouds at
KLVS and a strong east wind at KABQ. There is a low chance for
some MVFR conditions from low clouds at KTCC, KCVS and KCVN due
to higher surface moisture return from the southeast. Some
guidance depicts some isolated shower and storm activity between
KTCC and KCAO between 06-12Z, but low confidence in this actually
materializing. Any low stratus northeast and east central NM
breaks up shortly after sunrise. Some shower and storm development
is expected in far northeast NM beginning midday Thursday with
most activity mainly northeast of KLVS and north of KTCC.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
Gusty showers and storms are expected over the high terrain and in
central and eastern NM through the evening hours. A few storms
across the northeast and east central plains may become severe this
evening as well. The dryline will continue to slosh back and forth
across central and eastern NM the next several days, being the focus
of shower and storm activity each day. The threat of strong to
severe storms will generally be confined to far eastern NM each day.
Winds are expected to come up on Sunday in the wake of a westerly
shortwave that will also usher in a drier airmass. Single digit to
low teen minimum afternoon humidity Sunday through Tuesday will
create widespread elevated fire weather conditions with near
critical conditions across the northeast where winds will be a bit
stronger. Fortunately, beneficial rainfall from yesterday and the
next few days could help to increase fuel moisture across this area.
Temperatures are expected to rise to 5-10 degrees above average
areawide early next week as ridging builds in over the Intermountain
West.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 48 86 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 38 82 38 82 / 0 5 0 5
Cuba............................ 45 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 5
Gallup.......................... 41 84 41 86 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 44 78 45 81 / 0 0 0 5
Grants.......................... 42 83 43 85 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 44 81 46 84 / 0 0 0 5
Magdalena....................... 53 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 5
Datil........................... 49 81 49 82 / 0 0 0 5
Reserve......................... 39 87 41 89 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 54 91 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 40 75 39 76 / 10 5 0 10
Los Alamos...................... 54 79 54 79 / 10 0 0 20
Pecos........................... 50 82 48 81 / 20 5 5 30
Cerro/Questa.................... 46 75 44 75 / 20 10 10 30
Red River....................... 40 70 37 69 / 20 20 10 40
Angel Fire...................... 36 74 34 72 / 30 10 10 40
Taos............................ 43 81 42 80 / 20 5 5 20
Mora............................ 45 78 43 76 / 20 10 10 40
Espanola........................ 51 88 50 87 / 10 0 0 20
Santa Fe........................ 53 82 52 82 / 20 5 0 20
Santa Fe Airport................ 51 86 50 86 / 10 0 0 10
Albuquerque Foothills........... 58 87 58 88 / 5 0 0 10
Albuquerque Heights............. 56 89 56 89 / 5 0 0 5
Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 91 55 91 / 0 0 0 5
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 57 90 57 90 / 5 0 0 5
Belen........................... 53 91 52 91 / 0 0 0 5
Bernalillo...................... 55 90 56 90 / 10 0 0 5
Bosque Farms.................... 52 90 51 91 / 0 0 0 5
Corrales........................ 56 90 55 90 / 5 0 0 5
Los Lunas....................... 53 91 52 91 / 0 0 0 5
Placitas........................ 56 86 57 86 / 10 0 0 5
Rio Rancho...................... 57 89 56 89 / 5 0 0 5
Socorro......................... 57 93 57 95 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 80 52 81 / 5 0 0 10
Tijeras......................... 53 83 52 84 / 5 0 0 10
Edgewood........................ 49 84 49 84 / 10 0 0 10
Moriarty/Estancia............... 45 86 44 86 / 5 0 0 10
Clines Corners.................. 48 81 48 79 / 10 0 0 20
Mountainair..................... 50 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 10
Gran Quivira.................... 50 84 48 84 / 0 0 0 10
Carrizozo....................... 57 88 56 89 / 0 0 0 10
Ruidoso......................... 53 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 20
Capulin......................... 50 78 46 73 / 20 40 30 60
Raton........................... 48 83 46 77 / 20 30 20 50
Springer........................ 50 83 48 79 / 20 30 20 50
Las Vegas....................... 49 81 47 76 / 30 20 10 40
Clayton......................... 57 84 53 77 / 30 50 30 40
Roy............................. 54 82 51 77 / 40 30 20 50
Conchas......................... 59 91 56 84 / 40 20 20 30
Santa Rosa...................... 57 88 54 83 / 30 5 10 20
Tucumcari....................... 60 91 56 82 / 30 20 30 30
Clovis.......................... 62 94 58 82 / 20 10 20 20
Portales........................ 62 95 58 86 / 20 5 20 20
Fort Sumner..................... 60 93 57 87 / 10 5 10 20
Roswell......................... 64 100 63 91 / 5 0 5 10
Picacho......................... 55 91 55 86 / 5 0 0 20
Elk............................. 53 90 53 86 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...71
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
557 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
Shortwave trough will move across the Panhandles later this
evening and overnight. This will set up the rounds of showers and
storms that may move into the Panhandles tonight. Some storms
already initiating off the NM mountains, but those storms are slow
moving and likely to collapse as they move off the mountains.
There may be a few storms that latch onto the shortwave and that
will bring a chance for strong to severe storms overnight.
Previous high res models were more bullish on expansive coverage
of storms to include Amarillo, however latest 18z HRRR model has
now backed off of this and is focused on storms in the northeast
Panhandles overnight tonight, and will even linger in the east
tomorrow morning.
Another more stout shortwave trough is expected to move through on
Thursday, and it appears that there will be just enough recovery
for storms to develop along the dryline in the western Panhandles
early Thursday afternoon (around 19z). Storms will likely start
off supercellular along the dryline in the northwest Panhandles
and move off the dryline to the southeast. They should congeal
into a line segment, becoming mainly a wind threat. As the storms
form, all hazards will be possible, but the tornado threat will be
challenging as the storms near the dryline will have much higher
LCL`s. As storms move to the southeast the LCL`s will lower and
better dynamics for tornadoes would be present. That being said as
the storms are expected to become more linear, and that will
significantly limit that tornado threat for the evening, but not
completely remove it (~2% chance). Storms should be out of the
area around 10PM to midnight tomorrow night with a small chance
for lingering showers storms on the back side overnight.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
A series of shortwaves are expected to move across the Panhandles
Friday through Sunday bringing rounds of showers and storms each
day. Storms will have the potential to be severe, and heavy rain
will be possible with any storms. The higher probabilities for
excessive rainfall, and severe weather fall in the east, with
lower chances in the central and western Panhandles. Sunday`s
storms may only occur in the northwest as we start to build a
ridge over the western Panhandles. By Monday and Tuesday
temperatures will be back in the 90s to near 100 in some areas
given the high pressure over the Panhandles.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
All three terminals are expected to remain VFR through the early
parts of the 00Z TAF period. It will not be until after 06Z when
some thunderstorms may impact KGUY, with the potential for KDHT
and KAMA more around 09Z to 12Z. Even if storms do not occur for
one or more of the TAF sites some MVFR CIGs may be possible during
this time leading up to sunrise. There may be a small break in
storm activity from 12Z through 18Z then the potential for storms
will once again return to the combined Panhandles. For the first
round 06Z through 12Z there is still a bit of uncertainty as to
whether KAMA or KDHT will be impacted. Winds should remain
southerly around 10 to 15 kts pending any thunderstorms that may
cause erratic winds.
36
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 61 86 58 78 / 40 50 70 30
Beaver OK 62 84 57 79 / 50 50 90 30
Boise City OK 58 86 54 78 / 50 60 60 40
Borger TX 64 89 60 83 / 40 50 80 30
Boys Ranch TX 62 91 59 82 / 40 50 60 30
Canyon TX 61 87 57 78 / 40 40 60 30
Clarendon TX 61 81 59 77 / 50 50 80 50
Dalhart TX 58 87 53 79 / 30 50 60 30
Guymon OK 60 86 56 79 / 50 60 80 30
Hereford TX 61 91 57 81 / 30 30 50 30
Lipscomb TX 63 84 60 78 / 50 70 90 40
Pampa TX 62 84 59 78 / 40 50 80 40
Shamrock TX 62 82 59 79 / 50 60 90 50
Wellington TX 63 82 60 79 / 50 60 90 60
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...36
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
555 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Several opportunities for rain over the next few days
- Risk of severe weather and localized flash flooding on
Thursday
- Much warmer temperatures expected next week
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
18z observations show a warm frontal boundary across central
Kansas with a surface high located in northeast New Mexico. An
upper level ridge is moving through the southern Rockies with a
developing shortwave and afternoon storms in the Colorado
Rockies.
For tonight CAM models have been pretty consistent with storms
developing both in northeast and southeast Colorado as the
shortwave ejects into those areas by late afternoon. The line of
storms in southeast Colorado isn`t expected to reach Kansas
until around 7pm and the northern line will reach southwest
Kansas after midnight. Highest CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg
will be just along and west of the Colorado border and the CAPE
values fall quickly as you go east into Kansas. This would
reflect the storms starting out strong in Colorado and then
gradually weakening to more general storms as they move into
Kansas tonight. Marginal risk of severe weather is in place
mainly for areas along and west of highway 283 with some hail
bigger than quarters and 60 mph wind gust threats. The overnight
storms will likely have a higher threat of localized heavy
rainfall as some areas could receive over 0.50 inch of rain in a
short amount of time especially between the highway 83 and 281
corridors.
Thursday as the shortwave propagates into central Kansas we
should rain chances decrease through the late morning but it
does look like the clouds should hang around for most of the day
in areas along and east of highway 83. West of 83 we should see
more sunshine and combined with low level moisture we should see
the atmosphere destabilize during the afternoon. Depending on
where the outflow boundary is left from Wednesday night`s
convection we should see a frontal boundary somewhere in the
highway 54-56 corridors ignite a round of storms as a 700 mb
shortwave moves into western Kansas by 21-00Z. CAPE values are
forecast to be in the 2000-3000 J/kg range for the areas that
receive sun with 25-30 kt 0-6 km bulk shear. Severe threat of
large hail and damaging winds will be on the table again
especially for areas along and west of highway 83.
Thursday night with weak flow aloft and the stationary outflow
boundary we are seeing a setup which could favor some localized
flash flooding. PWAT values over 1 inch and models forecast
bunkers motion of 10 kts or less is suggesting storms will have
a lot of moisture and very little movement. There is a slight
risk of flash flooding for all of southwest Kansas and high
probabilities (50-70%) of 1 inch or more of rain east of a
Liberal to WaKeeney line. While the ground can take a soaking
rain with these thunderstorms we could certainly see 1-2 inch
per hour rain rates and areas prone to flash flooding will be at
higher risk during the night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
Rain and storm chances continue into Friday morning as the upper
level low will move into central Kansas by mid morning. Rain
will become more spotty in the afternoon as some areas of 700 mb
lift will reside in central and western Kansas mainly around the
I-70 corridor and the Colorado border.
Ensemble trends through the weekend and early next week are
showing more of a zonal to slight ridging pattern. Storm chances
become much less during next week with only 20-30 POPs due to
some pop up storm chances mainly in central Kansas. The bigger
story is the warm up in temperatures. Euro and GEFS ensembles
are showing 50-70% chances of 90 degree highs starting Monday
and continuing into the middle of next week. 850 mb temperatures
are forecast to be in the 20-25 (C) range which would reflect
good warming to the surface.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
The TAFS will undoubtedly need at least some minor amendments
as the shift progresses, and convection shows its hand across
the area through 12z. The setup is similar to last evening, with
marginally severe storms, mainly hail storms, that will be
moving out of Colorado in the late evening and running into a
less favorable environment for widespread severe thunderstorms.
Still, the moisture and warm temperature advection will provide
the impetus for sustained updrafts propagating east of highway
83 overnight. The HRRR model shows a gust front outflow boundary
moving east of Liberal along the KS/OK line around 7 or 8 UTC.
Expect ceilings to drop to around 2k ft in thunderstorms will
lingering stratus developing behind the storms heading into the
morning hours. HREF Low cloud probabilities are in the 40-60
percent area for IFR cloud development, at any terminal after
9z.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1203 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Clear sky and light north wind result in chilly low temperatures
this morning. Lows near 40 will be common outside of metro Detroit.
- Dry weather and a gradual warming trend unfold today and Friday.
- The next chance of rain is late Saturday and Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure
moves over Michigan today. Just enough moisture availability during
peak heating this afternoon may generate sparse cumulus at around
6kft. Winds will hold mostly below 10 knots through today as winds
orient more east to northeast later in the evening with the passing
of the high pressure. Skies expected to remain mostly clear tonight.
For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected during this
forecast period.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024
DISCUSSION...
Another uncapped/low CAPE density convective setup developed this
afternoon only with a much smaller geographic footprint compared to
yesterday, mainly south of I96/696, and which is already winding
down and exiting southward at issuance time. Mid afternoon hourly
mesoanalyses and RAP model projections indicate surface based CAPE
holding around 1000 J/kg south of I94 as Td lingers in the mid 50s
to fuel convection for a couple more hours. Also like yesterday,
model soundings indicate freezing level still hovering around a
relatively low 8000 ft which makes mainly pea size hail possible in
a few stronger updrafts when combined with the skinny CAPE density
shown in model soundings. A few precip loaded sub 40 mph wind gusts
are also possible until activity weakens while exiting south of the
border by sunset.
Elsewhere and otherwise, cool and dry boundary layer advection is on
full display to the north across the rest of Lower Mi this
afternoon. The inbound dry air already has clear sky in place north
of I69 across the Tri Cities and northern Thumb, and this will
spread southward across the rest of SE Mi this evening. Clear sky
across the area after midnight then combines with a lingering light
north wind for a chilly temperature pattern into Thursday morning.
The wind disrupts full radiational cooling potential but the
forecast still leans toward the lower end of the guidance range for
lows near 40 outside of metro Detroit. This is a solid 10-15 degrees
below normal while still well above record lows that are all in the
lower to mid 30s for May 30th.
High pressure then takes firm control of conditions across the Great
Lakes for the late week period. Temperatures rebound quickly from
the chilly morning start with the benefit of full morning sun and
just scattered/shallow afternoon fair weather cumulus and some
cirrus streamers. The long wave mid level flow is amplifying during
this time leading to ridge building across the Midwest which
fortifies downstream subsidence into the central Great Lakes.
Effective larger scale subsident forcing is reflected in very dry
model mean RH to maintain mostly clear sky and rule out
precipitation Thursday night and Friday. The low level thermal
trough is projected to our east even tonight and Thursday and shifts
even farther east by Friday which allows a larger temperature
rebound back into the mid and upper 70s.
The weekend becomes more active in terms of rain potential but is
not a washout by any stretch. Consensus of extended range model
solutions brings a short wave into the upper Midwest and the next
chance of rain to Lower Mi late Saturday and mainly Saturday night,
however it is a progressive system with a weak front, both of which
are east of the area by Sunday. The weak front and trailing modest
high pressure keep temperatures hovering around 80 each day.
MARINE...
High pressure becomes fully established tonight with the departure
of surface troughing. This supports weakening winds (and subsequent
waves) through the evening as lighter flow (at or below 15kts) takes
hold by early Thursday. While northerly flow persists for Thursday,
weaker winds are expected to hold waves sub small craft criteria
around the Thumb. Surface high drifts directly over the central
Great Lakes through the remainder of the week maintaining dry
conditions and light southerly winds.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......KDK
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1007 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong/severe thunderstorms possible the next few days with
all modes of severe weather possible along with excessive
rainfall that could produce flooding/flash flooding.
- A bit drier with less shower/thunderstorm coverage Sunday
through Wednesday with afternoon temperatures well into the
80s. Lower to middle 90s are forecast Sunday and Tuesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
Have opted to issue a High Wind Warning for Logan and Gove
counties as an area of decaying showers have been producing
wind gusts around 60 mph. Due to the lack of lightning with
these wind gust observations these winds are becoming less
convective driven and do think the threat will continue
further into each respective county through at least 12am CDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
Tonight...showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into parts
of far eastern Colorado in the 5-6 PM MDT timeframe aided by
sufficient moisture in the 850-500mb layer, modest instability and
modest 250mb jet divergence. These isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will move toward Highway 25 by 03z, increasing in
coverage east of Highway 25 after midnight. Primary hazards through
midnight look to be large hail, damaging winds and perhaps some
locally excessive rainfall. The 06z-12z GFS and prior runs of the
HRRR were showing signs in the 0.5-1km wind speeds of a potential
blowing dust threat associated with any convection moving into the
far southern/southwestern zones from southeast Colorado (generally
00z-02z timeframe). After midnight, the threat becomes locally
excessive rainfall that could produce flooding/flash flooding.
Low clouds and likely some fog will be present a few hours prior to
sunrise Thursday morning. Dense fog cant be ruled out.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
Thursday-Thursday night...lingering morning showers and
thunderstorms east of Highway 25 in the morning look reasonable
given sufficient moisture in the 850-700mb layer despite mid level
dry air moving overhead. During the mid afternoon, looking at 20%-
30% chances for showers/thunderstorms east of Highway 27 with
continued chances through late afternoon with focus then shifting
toward far eastern Colorado as the next weather system moves in.
Overnight, this feature, aided by sufficient lift, instability and
upper jet divergence moves generally to the east although specifics
are a bit more difficult to pinpoint. High temperatures are looking
to be in the middle 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures in the
upper 40s to upper 50s.
Friday-Friday night...we`ll have 20%-40% chances for showers and
thunderstorms although a bit more specific timing would be east of
Highway 25 in the morning and early afternoon as Thursday nights
wave moves through. The next weather system moves into far eastern
Colorado during the late afternoon hours then east across the
remainder of the area through midnight before moving southeast and
out of the area. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower
to middle 70s with low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.
Saturday-Saturday night...shower/thunderstorm chances increase in
the afternoon from the west and southwest (20%-40% chance) then east
and out of the area near sunrise Sunday morning with continued 20%-
40% chances. High temperatures rise into the lower to middle 80s
with low temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
Shortwave trough comes through the zonal flow on Sunday with
convective initiation in the afternoon along a lee trough or dry
line draped over western portions of the forecast area. Deep
layer shear is forecast to be weaker than it has been, around
20-25 kts, suggesting more of a pulse storm mode. Nonetheless,
should see a low end risk for severe storms as they move east
Sunday evening. For areas west of the dry line Sunday afternoon,
near critical to critical fire weather conditions will be
possible due to low humidity, though wind appears to be lacking
at this point.
For early next week, a ridge over the southern plains is
forecast to gradually build northward. If the ridge axis is over
the Rockies as forecast, then the central plains will be
transitioning to a northwest flow aloft. The door will still be
open for disturbances coming over the ridge axis, especially
eastern areas, though as you get into Colorado the ridge might
start to suppress convection. Another impact of the building
ridge will be lighter flow aloft, with deep layer shear
generally in the 20-30 kt range each day. This would tend to
somewhat limit storm organization and severe risk. However,
instability does not look like it will be lacking with moderate
instability forecast just about every afternoon in some part of
the forecast area. So, daily thunderstorms chances appear to
continue but with some decrease in storm intensity and severe
risk.
Temperatures will be above normal with proximity to the upper
ridge. Highs will be in the 80s and 90s and lows in the 50s and
60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1003 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
Showers and storms continue to move across each terminal
bringing with MVFR visibilities. This is forecasted to continue
through the first few hours of the new TAF period. Continue to
have concern for patchy dense fog across the area around sunrise
similar to this morning, so confidence isn`t overly high in
exact locations but do feel it is worth including as tempo.
stratus may linger across eastern portions of the area
especially KMCK; appearing more likely that status should be
clear of the KGLD terminal. Another round of potentially severe
storms is again forecast for tomorrow.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 358 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024
Highly efficient moisture return has already began and will continue
into the end of the workweek with aid from the 850 mb LLJ. This
moist conveyor belt will cause PWATS to increase above 1 inch
starting Wednesday and potentially remain that way until Sunday. The
highest values will be in the eastern CWA, but the majority of the
Tri-State area will have a good chance (70%+) at seeing PWATS above
1 inch. Throughout this active pattern, a high melting layer is also
expected, generally 11,000-15,000 feet agl.
Tuesday evening saw 2-3+ inches of rain in Cheyenne county Colorado,
and a few other locations in eastern Colorado. This rain did not
cause any flooding, but it will make it easier for flooding to occur
over the next few days. Locations that received heavy rainfall are
not fully primed for flooding (SAC-SMA soil saturation is around 30-
45% in these area), but will become susceptible to flooding sooner
than normal.
Based on what the CAMs are showing, the southern cluster of storms
would be a slower mover and larger in size, meaning based on its
projected path (south of I-70 across the CWA) and potential for
heavy rainfall, it will need to be watched closely for flash
flooding.
Thursday is currently the best day for training storms to create
heavy rainfall that could lead to rate-driven flash flooding and
duration-driven areal flooding. Friday and Saturday are also at risk
for flooding potential due to a combination of efficient rain
producing storms and potentially multiple days of heavy rain
saturating the soil.
Current confidence in localized flooding occurring through Saturday
is around 25-45%. Confidence in widespread flooding is about
20%.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Warning until midnight CDT tonight for KSZ028-029.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Trigg
HYDROLOGY...CA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
646 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe storms are possible this evening, mainly along and west
of highway 61
- Severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon, mainly along
and east of highway 83.
- Large hail and wind damage are the main concern both days.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
The CAMs, including the HREF are firing a few areas, or clusters, of
storms off the Laramie Range and Pine Ridge around 18z this
afternoon. The models generally show modest upscale growth and move
the storms in an easterly direction arriving in wrn Nebraska around
23z-00z this evening. A general east southeast motion is expected
tonight and weakening is expected by 04z. The storms should continue
to drift east through ncntl Nebraska late tonight, carried along by
the nocturnal the low level jet.
Some of the salient severe weather features are modest winds aloft,
15-30kts at h500-300mb, 20-30kt southerly winds at h850-700mb for
effective shear 30-40kts. Strong 850-700mb moisture and theta-e
advection is shown by the RAP model this evening. The CAMs wind gust
products suggest strong moisture advection and modest shear aloft
will cause the storm complexes to form cold pools. Fairly strong WAA
will be directed through the WY and Colo ranges and this often
produces the severe weather near those ranges. As the storms move
away into wrn Nebraska, they weaken. This is the basis for the SPC
Day1 outlook of a relatively narrow north-south stripe of severe
weather potential along the high Plains.
Heating today will cause the warm lapse rates this morning to become
steep by late afternoon. The associated MLCAPE, 1000-1500J/KG,
supports a large hail threat while damaging winds appear to be the
primary severe weather hazard. It is worth noting, the non-CAM RAP
model shows just isolated storm coverage; the strength of the CAMs
are their ability to predict upscale growth.
The models show a weak frontal boundary draped across Nebraska
oriented across southwest to northeast Thursday afternoon and this
will be the focus for additional storm development mid-afternoon
onward, generally along and east of highway 83. For this event, the
RAP model suggests scattered storms while the CAMS suggest slightly
less storm coverage. The HREF indicates isolated coverage.
Winds aloft Thursday are problematic; the westerlies at h500mb back
and become south at h300mb. This is not the favored profile for
severe storms. Lapse rates, associated MLCAPE and moisture
availability are still strong during the daytime. SPC gives just a
marginal severe weather risk for this set up.
The POP forecast tonight leans on the CAMs and HREF and the RAP
model Thursday for likely POPs along and west of highway tonight;
mostly east of highway 83 Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
Sunday and Tuesday are the best chances for thunderstorms in the
extended forecast.
This storm activity will be guarded by nrn stream disturbances
emanating from an upper level low parked across the Gulf of Alaska.
Jet winds of 30-40kts at h500-300mb Sunday suggest the potential for
severe storms. These winds increase to 40-50kts Tuesday. Isolated
storm chances are in place during much of the rest of the extended
forecast. The NAM, SREF, GFS and ECM all show isolated storms
forming Saturday afternoon, for example.
The 850-700mb theta-e advection and moisture transport in both the
GFS and ECM support strong storms. The best minds at SPC will make
the call on the level of severe weather most likely to develop in
later forecasts. For severe weather is possible Saturday through
Tuesday.
Thereafter, the models are in good agreement amplifying heights
across the Rockies. The ongoing heat wave across Mexico will build
north into the wrn U.S.. Wrn/ncntl Nebraska will not be in the heart
of the heat, but near the ern edge of the ridge. This type of
northwest flow appears to be favoring storm development off the Colo
Rockies which will dive south through KS and the srn Plains. The
forecast is dry next Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
VFR conditions are expected at the KLBF and KVTN terminal until
at least 04Z. Widely scattered -TSRA across the panhandle and
northeast Colorado will continue to move east this evening.
-TSRA may affect the KLBF and KVTN terminals between 04Z and
06Z, and should move east of the terminals thereafter. Lower
ceilings are forecast toward 12Z with MVFR near OVC030 at KVTN
from 13Z until 18Z. At KLBF, the ceiling near BKN035 13Z until
18Z. Gusty south winds this evening will diminish toward 06Z,
except gustier near thunderstorms.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Roberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
629 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some low end rain chances this afternoon and evening(20-50%)
over the southwest portion of the forecast area.
- Much better chance for widespread rain(60-80%) arrives Friday
into Saturday.
- Additional rain chances (15-30%) linger through the remainder
of the weekend with better chances of rain(30-50%) picking
back up early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
Weak summertime upper-level flow is for the most part taking
hold of the CONUS save for troughing across the Great Lakes and
Pacific NW as noted by current water vapor imagery. In between
these troughs, large-scale ridging is present across the
northern Plains. Water vapor imagery and the latest RAP analysis
indicate a very subtle shortwave impulse moving through NW OK
overtop the tail-end of a cold front/stationary boundary
currently progged across E KS, NE OK, and into N AR. A few
light showers are associated with this impulse just ahead of
the surface front, which will be the focus for 20-50% chances of
showers and thunderstorms in far SW MO today.
Highs today are still on track to reach into the lower 80s.
Low-end rain chances (20-50%) this afternoon over SW MO:
The subtle shortwave impulse will continue to overspread the
surface boundary in the extreme SW corner of MO this afternoon.
Additionally, the right entrance region of the 700 mb jet will
be situated over this region. Lift associated with these
features--along with HREF bringing this region to 250-750 J/kg
of mean MLCAPE by peak heating--will support the development of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in extreme SE KS
and SW MO. SPC (RAP) Mesoanalysis are aggressive with 500-1500
J/kg of SBCAPE which is more supportive for thunderstorms.
Nevertheless, mean flow will be near 0, so these
showers/thunderstorms will be ordinary cells that are short-
lived and slow-moving with outflow possibly triggering other
cells in the area.
These showers/thunderstorms will likely be focused along the
surface cold front, which is currently progged right along the
SW corner of MO. Therefore, the greatest chance (30-50%) for
showers and thunderstorms would be within Cherokee, Newton,
Barry, and McDonald counties. These chances will last until peak
heating ceases after sunset.
After the rain chances, partly cloudy skies overnight will take
hold with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s with lower
temperatures toward central MO, closer to the upper-level
trough.
The mid- and upper-level ridge axis will slowly make its way
over MO during the day Thursday. With weak mean flow but
sufficient instability across the Plains, at least a few MCSs
will develop in OK/KS and move eastward through Thursday
morning. There is a low-end chance (15-30%) that remnants of
these MCSs could reach into our western CWA during the day
Thursday, producing mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
(not expected to be severe). Otherwise, highs will reach into
the upper 70s and lower 80s again.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
Widespread rain chances (60-80%) Friday into Saturday:
Multiple rounds of MCSs will move through the Plains due to
broad westerly flow over the mountains promoting lee
cyclogenesis within a modestly unstable airmass. One particular
round will be riding ahead of another subtle shortwave impulse
that will move along the KS/OK border. Medium-range CAMs suggest
that any MCS associated with this impulse will create an MCV
that will enhance the mid-level shortwave. In turn, the feedback
loop will produce a weak surface low and 850 mb low-level
cyclone. Surface fronts and a modest LLJ will be associated with
these features. As such, increased rain chances arise for Friday
(60-80%) through Saturday morning (30-50%).
Current model guidance has the warm front staying south of the
MO/AR border, which will keep any severe weather chances out of
our area. It will also keep our area rather cool with highs
Friday and Saturday in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the
lower 60s. However, strong meridional 850 mb flow will ride
over the warm front, pumping moisture up into our region. Based
on that synoptic setup, widespread rainfall and embedded
thunderstorms will be likely for much of our area through the
day. With the shortwave displaced from the longwave, and the MCV
orienting positive vorticity advection in a way that represents
an cut-off low, the wave will progress rather slowly. This will
keep rainfall over our area for an extended period of time
through Saturday morning making flooding a low- end threat. The
WPC does have portions of our CWA in a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for
excessive rainfall. However, with 75th percentile NBM QPFs only
at 1-1.5" in 48 hours, flooding is still a low-end threat at
this time. This is especially true with model spread still quite
high. The 25th-75th percentile spread is around 1-1.5", meaning
a low-end scenario has most of our CWA at 0.25-0.5" and a
higher-end scenario at 1.25-2.5". To further the uncertainty,
the NBM has the greatest axis of precipitation west of Highway
65, while the WPC guidance has widespread 1-1.5" across our
whole CWA. Greater confidence will come with a better handle on
the evolution of the wave and MCV, but the bottom line is that
most of our CWA will see at least 0.25-0.5" of rain through
Saturday morning.
Isolated rain chances (15-30%) for the rest of the weekend:
After the shortwave exits, there will be a brief dry period
Saturday night through early afternoon Sunday. At this point,
ensembles point to a summer-like pattern with the jet stream
over the northern states. Low-level flow will still be southerly
with a high pressure setting up off the Atlantic coast. This
will allow deep summertime moisture to start advecting into the
region. With temperatures increasing to the lower 80s and
dewpoints in the mid-60s, instability will be present with NBM
giving an 80-95% chance for >1000 J/kg SBCAPE. With weak upper-
level flow/forcing, pulse-like showers and thunderstorms during
peak heating Sunday afternoon appears likely, giving a 15-30%
chance for isolated to scattered short-lived showers and
thunderstorms.
Additional rain chances (30-50%) through midweek next week:
The aforementioned synoptic pattern will persist through midweek
next week, allowing moisture to continue to advect through the
region. The NAEFS and EPS ESATs have >99.5th percentile for mean
low-level specific humidity through Wednesday. This should allow
for daily isolated to scattered pulse thunderstorms, especially
if an MCV or subtle shortwave moves through. This is creating
30-50% chances for rain through midweek next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Scattered high clouds
across central Missouri, with some pulse thunderstorms along a
stationary front in the Arkansas Ozarks expected to remain
south of BBG (and other TAF sites) and dissipate shortly after
dark. Light southeast winds will strengthen into the daytime
hours on Thursday, and will be slightly stronger at SGF than
surrounding areas due to wind funneling effects from the
terrain. A strengthening pressure gradient will allow winds to
get slightly gusty for a few hours in the late afternoon,
especially for SGF, with sustained speeds between 10-15kts and
gusts up to 25kt. Ceilings will begin to lower Thursday
afternoon as well with the next round of precipitation moving
in.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Camden