Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/30/24


Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
601 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and storms will focus over the northern mountains and eastern plains this afternoon and evening. A few storms across the east could become severe late this afternoon into the evening hours. Afternoon storm activity is expected to continue across eastern NM Thursday and Friday and potentially extend west into central NM on Saturday. Drier air infiltrates from the west Sunday, helping temperatures climb to around 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Above average temperatures are dry weather will likely prevail early to mid next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Isolated to scattered convection has developed over the high terrain this afternoon. Since the moisture boundary pushed further west than expected overnight, a few updrafts with a little lightning have developed over the western high terrain as well. This showers and storms could produce localized gusty winds as they drift eastward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Storms that move off the Sangre de Cristo mountains into the eastern plains will attempt to organize, but only 20-30kts of bulk shear suggest that any severe storms will be pulsy in nature. There is ample instability across the east- central and northeast plains for storms to tap into, but model soundings also show a large cap that they will need to overcome. Previous runs of the HRRR indicated the potential for storms to continue past midnight, but recent guidance has backed off that solution. Thursday afternoon`s storm activity will focus across far eastern NM along the dryline. A westerly wave should provide enough lift for robust, potentially severe convection across the far northeast. Storms will likely cluster together as they move eastward into TX during the evening, sending an outflow boundary south and west, likely squeaking through the gaps of the central mountain chain by early Friday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Dryline storms are likely once again Friday in eastern NM with the best chance for severe weather across the far northeast near the CO border. There will likely be more storm activity than today or Thursday so the chances of gusty east winds in eastern Albuquerque and potentially Santa Fe as well will be increased for Saturday morning. With low-level moisture in place in the wake of the gusty east winds and a shortwave moving overhead, convective activity could extend as far west as the Rio Grande Valley on Saturday. Dry air advection behind this shortwave will limit storms to the far eastern plains on Sunday and help temperatures soar to the highest values of the season thus far in western and central NM. The middle Rio Grande Valley will be pushing 95F and Santa Fe could approach 90F. Long-term ensemble guidance is in good agreement that ridging will continue to build over the western US early to mid-next week, helping temperatures climb even higher. There is some uncertainty with the location of the ridge, with some models show the axis over the west coast and others showing it along the spine of the Rockies. Both would indicate above average temperatures for most of New Mexico, but the west coast ridge would increase the chances of backdoor cold front intrusions into eastern NM. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Isolated showers and storms across the northeast and east central plains could become briefly strong to severe with damaging winds and hail and may impact KTCC between before 30/05Z. Given the lack of storm coverage this afternoon, unlikely to see low clouds at KLVS and a strong east wind at KABQ. There is a low chance for some MVFR conditions from low clouds at KTCC, KCVS and KCVN due to higher surface moisture return from the southeast. Some guidance depicts some isolated shower and storm activity between KTCC and KCAO between 06-12Z, but low confidence in this actually materializing. Any low stratus northeast and east central NM breaks up shortly after sunrise. Some shower and storm development is expected in far northeast NM beginning midday Thursday with most activity mainly northeast of KLVS and north of KTCC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Gusty showers and storms are expected over the high terrain and in central and eastern NM through the evening hours. A few storms across the northeast and east central plains may become severe this evening as well. The dryline will continue to slosh back and forth across central and eastern NM the next several days, being the focus of shower and storm activity each day. The threat of strong to severe storms will generally be confined to far eastern NM each day. Winds are expected to come up on Sunday in the wake of a westerly shortwave that will also usher in a drier airmass. Single digit to low teen minimum afternoon humidity Sunday through Tuesday will create widespread elevated fire weather conditions with near critical conditions across the northeast where winds will be a bit stronger. Fortunately, beneficial rainfall from yesterday and the next few days could help to increase fuel moisture across this area. Temperatures are expected to rise to 5-10 degrees above average areawide early next week as ridging builds in over the Intermountain West. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 48 86 49 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 38 82 38 82 / 0 5 0 5 Cuba............................ 45 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 41 84 41 86 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 44 78 45 81 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 42 83 43 85 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 44 81 46 84 / 0 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 53 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 49 81 49 82 / 0 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 39 87 41 89 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 54 91 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 40 75 39 76 / 10 5 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 54 79 54 79 / 10 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 50 82 48 81 / 20 5 5 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 75 44 75 / 20 10 10 30 Red River....................... 40 70 37 69 / 20 20 10 40 Angel Fire...................... 36 74 34 72 / 30 10 10 40 Taos............................ 43 81 42 80 / 20 5 5 20 Mora............................ 45 78 43 76 / 20 10 10 40 Espanola........................ 51 88 50 87 / 10 0 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 53 82 52 82 / 20 5 0 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 51 86 50 86 / 10 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 58 87 58 88 / 5 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 89 56 89 / 5 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 91 55 91 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 57 90 57 90 / 5 0 0 5 Belen........................... 53 91 52 91 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 55 90 56 90 / 10 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 52 90 51 91 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 56 90 55 90 / 5 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 53 91 52 91 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 56 86 57 86 / 10 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 57 89 56 89 / 5 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 57 93 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 80 52 81 / 5 0 0 10 Tijeras......................... 53 83 52 84 / 5 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 49 84 49 84 / 10 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 45 86 44 86 / 5 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 48 81 48 79 / 10 0 0 20 Mountainair..................... 50 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 50 84 48 84 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 57 88 56 89 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 53 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 20 Capulin......................... 50 78 46 73 / 20 40 30 60 Raton........................... 48 83 46 77 / 20 30 20 50 Springer........................ 50 83 48 79 / 20 30 20 50 Las Vegas....................... 49 81 47 76 / 30 20 10 40 Clayton......................... 57 84 53 77 / 30 50 30 40 Roy............................. 54 82 51 77 / 40 30 20 50 Conchas......................... 59 91 56 84 / 40 20 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 57 88 54 83 / 30 5 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 60 91 56 82 / 30 20 30 30 Clovis.......................... 62 94 58 82 / 20 10 20 20 Portales........................ 62 95 58 86 / 20 5 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 60 93 57 87 / 10 5 10 20 Roswell......................... 64 100 63 91 / 5 0 5 10 Picacho......................... 55 91 55 86 / 5 0 0 20 Elk............................. 53 90 53 86 / 0 0 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...71
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
557 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Shortwave trough will move across the Panhandles later this evening and overnight. This will set up the rounds of showers and storms that may move into the Panhandles tonight. Some storms already initiating off the NM mountains, but those storms are slow moving and likely to collapse as they move off the mountains. There may be a few storms that latch onto the shortwave and that will bring a chance for strong to severe storms overnight. Previous high res models were more bullish on expansive coverage of storms to include Amarillo, however latest 18z HRRR model has now backed off of this and is focused on storms in the northeast Panhandles overnight tonight, and will even linger in the east tomorrow morning. Another more stout shortwave trough is expected to move through on Thursday, and it appears that there will be just enough recovery for storms to develop along the dryline in the western Panhandles early Thursday afternoon (around 19z). Storms will likely start off supercellular along the dryline in the northwest Panhandles and move off the dryline to the southeast. They should congeal into a line segment, becoming mainly a wind threat. As the storms form, all hazards will be possible, but the tornado threat will be challenging as the storms near the dryline will have much higher LCL`s. As storms move to the southeast the LCL`s will lower and better dynamics for tornadoes would be present. That being said as the storms are expected to become more linear, and that will significantly limit that tornado threat for the evening, but not completely remove it (~2% chance). Storms should be out of the area around 10PM to midnight tomorrow night with a small chance for lingering showers storms on the back side overnight. Weber && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A series of shortwaves are expected to move across the Panhandles Friday through Sunday bringing rounds of showers and storms each day. Storms will have the potential to be severe, and heavy rain will be possible with any storms. The higher probabilities for excessive rainfall, and severe weather fall in the east, with lower chances in the central and western Panhandles. Sunday`s storms may only occur in the northwest as we start to build a ridge over the western Panhandles. By Monday and Tuesday temperatures will be back in the 90s to near 100 in some areas given the high pressure over the Panhandles. Weber && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 All three terminals are expected to remain VFR through the early parts of the 00Z TAF period. It will not be until after 06Z when some thunderstorms may impact KGUY, with the potential for KDHT and KAMA more around 09Z to 12Z. Even if storms do not occur for one or more of the TAF sites some MVFR CIGs may be possible during this time leading up to sunrise. There may be a small break in storm activity from 12Z through 18Z then the potential for storms will once again return to the combined Panhandles. For the first round 06Z through 12Z there is still a bit of uncertainty as to whether KAMA or KDHT will be impacted. Winds should remain southerly around 10 to 15 kts pending any thunderstorms that may cause erratic winds. 36 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 61 86 58 78 / 40 50 70 30 Beaver OK 62 84 57 79 / 50 50 90 30 Boise City OK 58 86 54 78 / 50 60 60 40 Borger TX 64 89 60 83 / 40 50 80 30 Boys Ranch TX 62 91 59 82 / 40 50 60 30 Canyon TX 61 87 57 78 / 40 40 60 30 Clarendon TX 61 81 59 77 / 50 50 80 50 Dalhart TX 58 87 53 79 / 30 50 60 30 Guymon OK 60 86 56 79 / 50 60 80 30 Hereford TX 61 91 57 81 / 30 30 50 30 Lipscomb TX 63 84 60 78 / 50 70 90 40 Pampa TX 62 84 59 78 / 40 50 80 40 Shamrock TX 62 82 59 79 / 50 60 90 50 Wellington TX 63 82 60 79 / 50 60 90 60 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...36
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
555 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Several opportunities for rain over the next few days - Risk of severe weather and localized flash flooding on Thursday - Much warmer temperatures expected next week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 18z observations show a warm frontal boundary across central Kansas with a surface high located in northeast New Mexico. An upper level ridge is moving through the southern Rockies with a developing shortwave and afternoon storms in the Colorado Rockies. For tonight CAM models have been pretty consistent with storms developing both in northeast and southeast Colorado as the shortwave ejects into those areas by late afternoon. The line of storms in southeast Colorado isn`t expected to reach Kansas until around 7pm and the northern line will reach southwest Kansas after midnight. Highest CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg will be just along and west of the Colorado border and the CAPE values fall quickly as you go east into Kansas. This would reflect the storms starting out strong in Colorado and then gradually weakening to more general storms as they move into Kansas tonight. Marginal risk of severe weather is in place mainly for areas along and west of highway 283 with some hail bigger than quarters and 60 mph wind gust threats. The overnight storms will likely have a higher threat of localized heavy rainfall as some areas could receive over 0.50 inch of rain in a short amount of time especially between the highway 83 and 281 corridors. Thursday as the shortwave propagates into central Kansas we should rain chances decrease through the late morning but it does look like the clouds should hang around for most of the day in areas along and east of highway 83. West of 83 we should see more sunshine and combined with low level moisture we should see the atmosphere destabilize during the afternoon. Depending on where the outflow boundary is left from Wednesday night`s convection we should see a frontal boundary somewhere in the highway 54-56 corridors ignite a round of storms as a 700 mb shortwave moves into western Kansas by 21-00Z. CAPE values are forecast to be in the 2000-3000 J/kg range for the areas that receive sun with 25-30 kt 0-6 km bulk shear. Severe threat of large hail and damaging winds will be on the table again especially for areas along and west of highway 83. Thursday night with weak flow aloft and the stationary outflow boundary we are seeing a setup which could favor some localized flash flooding. PWAT values over 1 inch and models forecast bunkers motion of 10 kts or less is suggesting storms will have a lot of moisture and very little movement. There is a slight risk of flash flooding for all of southwest Kansas and high probabilities (50-70%) of 1 inch or more of rain east of a Liberal to WaKeeney line. While the ground can take a soaking rain with these thunderstorms we could certainly see 1-2 inch per hour rain rates and areas prone to flash flooding will be at higher risk during the night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Rain and storm chances continue into Friday morning as the upper level low will move into central Kansas by mid morning. Rain will become more spotty in the afternoon as some areas of 700 mb lift will reside in central and western Kansas mainly around the I-70 corridor and the Colorado border. Ensemble trends through the weekend and early next week are showing more of a zonal to slight ridging pattern. Storm chances become much less during next week with only 20-30 POPs due to some pop up storm chances mainly in central Kansas. The bigger story is the warm up in temperatures. Euro and GEFS ensembles are showing 50-70% chances of 90 degree highs starting Monday and continuing into the middle of next week. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be in the 20-25 (C) range which would reflect good warming to the surface. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 553 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The TAFS will undoubtedly need at least some minor amendments as the shift progresses, and convection shows its hand across the area through 12z. The setup is similar to last evening, with marginally severe storms, mainly hail storms, that will be moving out of Colorado in the late evening and running into a less favorable environment for widespread severe thunderstorms. Still, the moisture and warm temperature advection will provide the impetus for sustained updrafts propagating east of highway 83 overnight. The HRRR model shows a gust front outflow boundary moving east of Liberal along the KS/OK line around 7 or 8 UTC. Expect ceilings to drop to around 2k ft in thunderstorms will lingering stratus developing behind the storms heading into the morning hours. HREF Low cloud probabilities are in the 40-60 percent area for IFR cloud development, at any terminal after 9z. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Tatro AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1203 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clear sky and light north wind result in chilly low temperatures this morning. Lows near 40 will be common outside of metro Detroit. - Dry weather and a gradual warming trend unfold today and Friday. - The next chance of rain is late Saturday and Saturday night. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure moves over Michigan today. Just enough moisture availability during peak heating this afternoon may generate sparse cumulus at around 6kft. Winds will hold mostly below 10 knots through today as winds orient more east to northeast later in the evening with the passing of the high pressure. Skies expected to remain mostly clear tonight. For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected during this forecast period. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * None. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 DISCUSSION... Another uncapped/low CAPE density convective setup developed this afternoon only with a much smaller geographic footprint compared to yesterday, mainly south of I96/696, and which is already winding down and exiting southward at issuance time. Mid afternoon hourly mesoanalyses and RAP model projections indicate surface based CAPE holding around 1000 J/kg south of I94 as Td lingers in the mid 50s to fuel convection for a couple more hours. Also like yesterday, model soundings indicate freezing level still hovering around a relatively low 8000 ft which makes mainly pea size hail possible in a few stronger updrafts when combined with the skinny CAPE density shown in model soundings. A few precip loaded sub 40 mph wind gusts are also possible until activity weakens while exiting south of the border by sunset. Elsewhere and otherwise, cool and dry boundary layer advection is on full display to the north across the rest of Lower Mi this afternoon. The inbound dry air already has clear sky in place north of I69 across the Tri Cities and northern Thumb, and this will spread southward across the rest of SE Mi this evening. Clear sky across the area after midnight then combines with a lingering light north wind for a chilly temperature pattern into Thursday morning. The wind disrupts full radiational cooling potential but the forecast still leans toward the lower end of the guidance range for lows near 40 outside of metro Detroit. This is a solid 10-15 degrees below normal while still well above record lows that are all in the lower to mid 30s for May 30th. High pressure then takes firm control of conditions across the Great Lakes for the late week period. Temperatures rebound quickly from the chilly morning start with the benefit of full morning sun and just scattered/shallow afternoon fair weather cumulus and some cirrus streamers. The long wave mid level flow is amplifying during this time leading to ridge building across the Midwest which fortifies downstream subsidence into the central Great Lakes. Effective larger scale subsident forcing is reflected in very dry model mean RH to maintain mostly clear sky and rule out precipitation Thursday night and Friday. The low level thermal trough is projected to our east even tonight and Thursday and shifts even farther east by Friday which allows a larger temperature rebound back into the mid and upper 70s. The weekend becomes more active in terms of rain potential but is not a washout by any stretch. Consensus of extended range model solutions brings a short wave into the upper Midwest and the next chance of rain to Lower Mi late Saturday and mainly Saturday night, however it is a progressive system with a weak front, both of which are east of the area by Sunday. The weak front and trailing modest high pressure keep temperatures hovering around 80 each day. MARINE... High pressure becomes fully established tonight with the departure of surface troughing. This supports weakening winds (and subsequent waves) through the evening as lighter flow (at or below 15kts) takes hold by early Thursday. While northerly flow persists for Thursday, weaker winds are expected to hold waves sub small craft criteria around the Thumb. Surface high drifts directly over the central Great Lakes through the remainder of the week maintaining dry conditions and light southerly winds. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...BT MARINE.......KDK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1007 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong/severe thunderstorms possible the next few days with all modes of severe weather possible along with excessive rainfall that could produce flooding/flash flooding. - A bit drier with less shower/thunderstorm coverage Sunday through Wednesday with afternoon temperatures well into the 80s. Lower to middle 90s are forecast Sunday and Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 844 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Have opted to issue a High Wind Warning for Logan and Gove counties as an area of decaying showers have been producing wind gusts around 60 mph. Due to the lack of lightning with these wind gust observations these winds are becoming less convective driven and do think the threat will continue further into each respective county through at least 12am CDT. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Tonight...showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into parts of far eastern Colorado in the 5-6 PM MDT timeframe aided by sufficient moisture in the 850-500mb layer, modest instability and modest 250mb jet divergence. These isolated to scattered thunderstorms will move toward Highway 25 by 03z, increasing in coverage east of Highway 25 after midnight. Primary hazards through midnight look to be large hail, damaging winds and perhaps some locally excessive rainfall. The 06z-12z GFS and prior runs of the HRRR were showing signs in the 0.5-1km wind speeds of a potential blowing dust threat associated with any convection moving into the far southern/southwestern zones from southeast Colorado (generally 00z-02z timeframe). After midnight, the threat becomes locally excessive rainfall that could produce flooding/flash flooding. Low clouds and likely some fog will be present a few hours prior to sunrise Thursday morning. Dense fog cant be ruled out. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Thursday-Thursday night...lingering morning showers and thunderstorms east of Highway 25 in the morning look reasonable given sufficient moisture in the 850-700mb layer despite mid level dry air moving overhead. During the mid afternoon, looking at 20%- 30% chances for showers/thunderstorms east of Highway 27 with continued chances through late afternoon with focus then shifting toward far eastern Colorado as the next weather system moves in. Overnight, this feature, aided by sufficient lift, instability and upper jet divergence moves generally to the east although specifics are a bit more difficult to pinpoint. High temperatures are looking to be in the middle 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Friday-Friday night...we`ll have 20%-40% chances for showers and thunderstorms although a bit more specific timing would be east of Highway 25 in the morning and early afternoon as Thursday nights wave moves through. The next weather system moves into far eastern Colorado during the late afternoon hours then east across the remainder of the area through midnight before moving southeast and out of the area. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 70s with low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s. Saturday-Saturday night...shower/thunderstorm chances increase in the afternoon from the west and southwest (20%-40% chance) then east and out of the area near sunrise Sunday morning with continued 20%- 40% chances. High temperatures rise into the lower to middle 80s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 100 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Shortwave trough comes through the zonal flow on Sunday with convective initiation in the afternoon along a lee trough or dry line draped over western portions of the forecast area. Deep layer shear is forecast to be weaker than it has been, around 20-25 kts, suggesting more of a pulse storm mode. Nonetheless, should see a low end risk for severe storms as they move east Sunday evening. For areas west of the dry line Sunday afternoon, near critical to critical fire weather conditions will be possible due to low humidity, though wind appears to be lacking at this point. For early next week, a ridge over the southern plains is forecast to gradually build northward. If the ridge axis is over the Rockies as forecast, then the central plains will be transitioning to a northwest flow aloft. The door will still be open for disturbances coming over the ridge axis, especially eastern areas, though as you get into Colorado the ridge might start to suppress convection. Another impact of the building ridge will be lighter flow aloft, with deep layer shear generally in the 20-30 kt range each day. This would tend to somewhat limit storm organization and severe risk. However, instability does not look like it will be lacking with moderate instability forecast just about every afternoon in some part of the forecast area. So, daily thunderstorms chances appear to continue but with some decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. Temperatures will be above normal with proximity to the upper ridge. Highs will be in the 80s and 90s and lows in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1003 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Showers and storms continue to move across each terminal bringing with MVFR visibilities. This is forecasted to continue through the first few hours of the new TAF period. Continue to have concern for patchy dense fog across the area around sunrise similar to this morning, so confidence isn`t overly high in exact locations but do feel it is worth including as tempo. stratus may linger across eastern portions of the area especially KMCK; appearing more likely that status should be clear of the KGLD terminal. Another round of potentially severe storms is again forecast for tomorrow. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 358 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Highly efficient moisture return has already began and will continue into the end of the workweek with aid from the 850 mb LLJ. This moist conveyor belt will cause PWATS to increase above 1 inch starting Wednesday and potentially remain that way until Sunday. The highest values will be in the eastern CWA, but the majority of the Tri-State area will have a good chance (70%+) at seeing PWATS above 1 inch. Throughout this active pattern, a high melting layer is also expected, generally 11,000-15,000 feet agl. Tuesday evening saw 2-3+ inches of rain in Cheyenne county Colorado, and a few other locations in eastern Colorado. This rain did not cause any flooding, but it will make it easier for flooding to occur over the next few days. Locations that received heavy rainfall are not fully primed for flooding (SAC-SMA soil saturation is around 30- 45% in these area), but will become susceptible to flooding sooner than normal. Based on what the CAMs are showing, the southern cluster of storms would be a slower mover and larger in size, meaning based on its projected path (south of I-70 across the CWA) and potential for heavy rainfall, it will need to be watched closely for flash flooding. Thursday is currently the best day for training storms to create heavy rainfall that could lead to rate-driven flash flooding and duration-driven areal flooding. Friday and Saturday are also at risk for flooding potential due to a combination of efficient rain producing storms and potentially multiple days of heavy rain saturating the soil. Current confidence in localized flooding occurring through Saturday is around 25-45%. Confidence in widespread flooding is about 20%. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...High Wind Warning until midnight CDT tonight for KSZ028-029. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...Trigg HYDROLOGY...CA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
646 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are possible this evening, mainly along and west of highway 61 - Severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon, mainly along and east of highway 83. - Large hail and wind damage are the main concern both days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The CAMs, including the HREF are firing a few areas, or clusters, of storms off the Laramie Range and Pine Ridge around 18z this afternoon. The models generally show modest upscale growth and move the storms in an easterly direction arriving in wrn Nebraska around 23z-00z this evening. A general east southeast motion is expected tonight and weakening is expected by 04z. The storms should continue to drift east through ncntl Nebraska late tonight, carried along by the nocturnal the low level jet. Some of the salient severe weather features are modest winds aloft, 15-30kts at h500-300mb, 20-30kt southerly winds at h850-700mb for effective shear 30-40kts. Strong 850-700mb moisture and theta-e advection is shown by the RAP model this evening. The CAMs wind gust products suggest strong moisture advection and modest shear aloft will cause the storm complexes to form cold pools. Fairly strong WAA will be directed through the WY and Colo ranges and this often produces the severe weather near those ranges. As the storms move away into wrn Nebraska, they weaken. This is the basis for the SPC Day1 outlook of a relatively narrow north-south stripe of severe weather potential along the high Plains. Heating today will cause the warm lapse rates this morning to become steep by late afternoon. The associated MLCAPE, 1000-1500J/KG, supports a large hail threat while damaging winds appear to be the primary severe weather hazard. It is worth noting, the non-CAM RAP model shows just isolated storm coverage; the strength of the CAMs are their ability to predict upscale growth. The models show a weak frontal boundary draped across Nebraska oriented across southwest to northeast Thursday afternoon and this will be the focus for additional storm development mid-afternoon onward, generally along and east of highway 83. For this event, the RAP model suggests scattered storms while the CAMS suggest slightly less storm coverage. The HREF indicates isolated coverage. Winds aloft Thursday are problematic; the westerlies at h500mb back and become south at h300mb. This is not the favored profile for severe storms. Lapse rates, associated MLCAPE and moisture availability are still strong during the daytime. SPC gives just a marginal severe weather risk for this set up. The POP forecast tonight leans on the CAMs and HREF and the RAP model Thursday for likely POPs along and west of highway tonight; mostly east of highway 83 Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Sunday and Tuesday are the best chances for thunderstorms in the extended forecast. This storm activity will be guarded by nrn stream disturbances emanating from an upper level low parked across the Gulf of Alaska. Jet winds of 30-40kts at h500-300mb Sunday suggest the potential for severe storms. These winds increase to 40-50kts Tuesday. Isolated storm chances are in place during much of the rest of the extended forecast. The NAM, SREF, GFS and ECM all show isolated storms forming Saturday afternoon, for example. The 850-700mb theta-e advection and moisture transport in both the GFS and ECM support strong storms. The best minds at SPC will make the call on the level of severe weather most likely to develop in later forecasts. For severe weather is possible Saturday through Tuesday. Thereafter, the models are in good agreement amplifying heights across the Rockies. The ongoing heat wave across Mexico will build north into the wrn U.S.. Wrn/ncntl Nebraska will not be in the heart of the heat, but near the ern edge of the ridge. This type of northwest flow appears to be favoring storm development off the Colo Rockies which will dive south through KS and the srn Plains. The forecast is dry next Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected at the KLBF and KVTN terminal until at least 04Z. Widely scattered -TSRA across the panhandle and northeast Colorado will continue to move east this evening. -TSRA may affect the KLBF and KVTN terminals between 04Z and 06Z, and should move east of the terminals thereafter. Lower ceilings are forecast toward 12Z with MVFR near OVC030 at KVTN from 13Z until 18Z. At KLBF, the ceiling near BKN035 13Z until 18Z. Gusty south winds this evening will diminish toward 06Z, except gustier near thunderstorms. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Roberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
629 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some low end rain chances this afternoon and evening(20-50%) over the southwest portion of the forecast area. - Much better chance for widespread rain(60-80%) arrives Friday into Saturday. - Additional rain chances (15-30%) linger through the remainder of the weekend with better chances of rain(30-50%) picking back up early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Weak summertime upper-level flow is for the most part taking hold of the CONUS save for troughing across the Great Lakes and Pacific NW as noted by current water vapor imagery. In between these troughs, large-scale ridging is present across the northern Plains. Water vapor imagery and the latest RAP analysis indicate a very subtle shortwave impulse moving through NW OK overtop the tail-end of a cold front/stationary boundary currently progged across E KS, NE OK, and into N AR. A few light showers are associated with this impulse just ahead of the surface front, which will be the focus for 20-50% chances of showers and thunderstorms in far SW MO today. Highs today are still on track to reach into the lower 80s. Low-end rain chances (20-50%) this afternoon over SW MO: The subtle shortwave impulse will continue to overspread the surface boundary in the extreme SW corner of MO this afternoon. Additionally, the right entrance region of the 700 mb jet will be situated over this region. Lift associated with these features--along with HREF bringing this region to 250-750 J/kg of mean MLCAPE by peak heating--will support the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in extreme SE KS and SW MO. SPC (RAP) Mesoanalysis are aggressive with 500-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE which is more supportive for thunderstorms. Nevertheless, mean flow will be near 0, so these showers/thunderstorms will be ordinary cells that are short- lived and slow-moving with outflow possibly triggering other cells in the area. These showers/thunderstorms will likely be focused along the surface cold front, which is currently progged right along the SW corner of MO. Therefore, the greatest chance (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms would be within Cherokee, Newton, Barry, and McDonald counties. These chances will last until peak heating ceases after sunset. After the rain chances, partly cloudy skies overnight will take hold with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s with lower temperatures toward central MO, closer to the upper-level trough. The mid- and upper-level ridge axis will slowly make its way over MO during the day Thursday. With weak mean flow but sufficient instability across the Plains, at least a few MCSs will develop in OK/KS and move eastward through Thursday morning. There is a low-end chance (15-30%) that remnants of these MCSs could reach into our western CWA during the day Thursday, producing mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms (not expected to be severe). Otherwise, highs will reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s again. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Widespread rain chances (60-80%) Friday into Saturday: Multiple rounds of MCSs will move through the Plains due to broad westerly flow over the mountains promoting lee cyclogenesis within a modestly unstable airmass. One particular round will be riding ahead of another subtle shortwave impulse that will move along the KS/OK border. Medium-range CAMs suggest that any MCS associated with this impulse will create an MCV that will enhance the mid-level shortwave. In turn, the feedback loop will produce a weak surface low and 850 mb low-level cyclone. Surface fronts and a modest LLJ will be associated with these features. As such, increased rain chances arise for Friday (60-80%) through Saturday morning (30-50%). Current model guidance has the warm front staying south of the MO/AR border, which will keep any severe weather chances out of our area. It will also keep our area rather cool with highs Friday and Saturday in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the lower 60s. However, strong meridional 850 mb flow will ride over the warm front, pumping moisture up into our region. Based on that synoptic setup, widespread rainfall and embedded thunderstorms will be likely for much of our area through the day. With the shortwave displaced from the longwave, and the MCV orienting positive vorticity advection in a way that represents an cut-off low, the wave will progress rather slowly. This will keep rainfall over our area for an extended period of time through Saturday morning making flooding a low- end threat. The WPC does have portions of our CWA in a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall. However, with 75th percentile NBM QPFs only at 1-1.5" in 48 hours, flooding is still a low-end threat at this time. This is especially true with model spread still quite high. The 25th-75th percentile spread is around 1-1.5", meaning a low-end scenario has most of our CWA at 0.25-0.5" and a higher-end scenario at 1.25-2.5". To further the uncertainty, the NBM has the greatest axis of precipitation west of Highway 65, while the WPC guidance has widespread 1-1.5" across our whole CWA. Greater confidence will come with a better handle on the evolution of the wave and MCV, but the bottom line is that most of our CWA will see at least 0.25-0.5" of rain through Saturday morning. Isolated rain chances (15-30%) for the rest of the weekend: After the shortwave exits, there will be a brief dry period Saturday night through early afternoon Sunday. At this point, ensembles point to a summer-like pattern with the jet stream over the northern states. Low-level flow will still be southerly with a high pressure setting up off the Atlantic coast. This will allow deep summertime moisture to start advecting into the region. With temperatures increasing to the lower 80s and dewpoints in the mid-60s, instability will be present with NBM giving an 80-95% chance for >1000 J/kg SBCAPE. With weak upper- level flow/forcing, pulse-like showers and thunderstorms during peak heating Sunday afternoon appears likely, giving a 15-30% chance for isolated to scattered short-lived showers and thunderstorms. Additional rain chances (30-50%) through midweek next week: The aforementioned synoptic pattern will persist through midweek next week, allowing moisture to continue to advect through the region. The NAEFS and EPS ESATs have >99.5th percentile for mean low-level specific humidity through Wednesday. This should allow for daily isolated to scattered pulse thunderstorms, especially if an MCV or subtle shortwave moves through. This is creating 30-50% chances for rain through midweek next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Scattered high clouds across central Missouri, with some pulse thunderstorms along a stationary front in the Arkansas Ozarks expected to remain south of BBG (and other TAF sites) and dissipate shortly after dark. Light southeast winds will strengthen into the daytime hours on Thursday, and will be slightly stronger at SGF than surrounding areas due to wind funneling effects from the terrain. A strengthening pressure gradient will allow winds to get slightly gusty for a few hours in the late afternoon, especially for SGF, with sustained speeds between 10-15kts and gusts up to 25kt. Ceilings will begin to lower Thursday afternoon as well with the next round of precipitation moving in. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Camden