Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/25/24
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
548 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024
A dangerous fire weather pattern is forecast Saturday as
strong dry, warm and windy southwesterly flow expands over the
state. Peak gusts of 40 to 55 mph will be possible most areas with
high wind gusts to 60 mph expected over southwest Chaves County.
Extreme fire weather conditions will focus through the south-central
mountains, including Ruidoso. Blowing dust will also be a concern,
notably near Roswell. Winds and critical fire weather conditions
subside Sunday, and end by Memorial Day Monday. Dry and breezy to
windy weather returns to the western half of the state Tuesday while
chances for afternoon thunderstorms enters the northeastern plains,
expanding to all of eastern NM Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024
A pair of fast-moving upper level shortwaves approaching from the
Great Basin tonight will force a 110 kt speed max and associated
sharpening dry slot over NM thru Saturday. But first, southwest
winds over the region this afternoon with very low humidity and
unstable conditions will allow breezy conditions to continue thru
sunset. Fires over the area are expected to pump out increasing
amounts of smoke through sunset. The latest 18Z HRRR smoke forecast
indicates near-surface smoke concentrations increasing tonight over
the upper RGV from the Indios Fire and from Lincoln County to the
Pecos River Valley from the Blue Fire. BlueSky model output also
shows some of these areas reaching max PM2.5 values above 120 in
immediate vicinity of the fires by Saturday morning. This would lead
to unhealthy air quality for sensitive groups. Smoke remains in the
forecast grids and messaging for air quality impacts was noted in
the latest briefing package.
Saturday will be a dynamic day across the region as the core of the
upper level jet crosses central NM. The latest 18Z NAM shows surface
low pressure deepening to near 988mb over southeast CO with deep
mixing up to 15kft over central and eastern NM. 700-500mb layer
winds of 45 to 55 kt will focus over southern and eastern NM with
widespread surface wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph likely. The 12Z HREF
ensemble wind gusts support Wind Advisories over the high plains of
eastern NM with gusts in excess of 55 mph across southwest Chaves
County where a High Wind Warning has also been issued. These strong
winds along with several hours of single digit humidity, hot temps,
and unstable conditions south and east of ABQ will allow any fires
to spread rapidly with significant smoke transport likely. The 18Z
HRRR shows the Indios and Blue fire plumes extending into Saturday
night with additional smoke sources possible. BlueSky shows higher
max concentrations of PM2.5 Saturday evening so air quality concerns
are likely to continue or worsen. Meanwhile, winds will be gradually
shifting from southwest to west through late Saturday afternoon as a
weak cold front moves across NM. Cooler temps will arrive Saturday
night across the north and west with higher humidity and lighter
winds. Although winds will trend lighter Saturday night, locations
along the east slopes of the central mt chain, including Ruidoso,
will see gusty winds thru early Sunday morning as mountain wave
activity continues in the wake of the departing upper level
trough.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024
The shortwave trough responsible for amplifying
Saturday`s wind and fire weather conditions will exit over the
central Great Plains by Sunday. Winds will lessen as the pressure
gradient relaxes over NM. Wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph will still
support breezy to locally windy conditions along and just east of
the central mountain chain. Winds relax further on Memorial Day
Monday as a ridge of high pressure begins to move in from the west
and the leading edge of a backdoor cold front noses into
northeastern NM. Monday`s forecast highs rise 3F to 7F most areas
except behind the front in far northeastern NM, with 60s and 70s in
the higher terrain, 80s in the mid-elevations, and 90s in lower
valley areas by Socorro and the eastern plains south of I-40.
A shift to a two-faced weather pattern over NM begins to take shape
Tuesday with dry, warm and windy southwesterly flow returning to the
western two-thirds of the state. Moisture from the Great Plains and
Gulf of Mexico will begin to swash west and east each night and day
through eastern NM. This higher moisture looks to only be present in
far eastern NM along the TX border and the northeastern plains
Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor this
area as a result. Outflow from these storms will push this moisture
westward to the central mountain chain with an east canyon wind at
Albuquerque and Santa Fe favored. Afternoon thunderstorm coverage
Wednesday will expand over eastern NM as a result. Thursday and
Friday see a continued troughing pattern over the western CONUS
producing dry, warm and windy southwesterly flow over the western
half of NM. This pattern will amplify, pushing low-level moisture
back east toward TX a bit, reducing the coverage of afternoon
thunderstorms both of these days to end next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024
Increasing upper level flow will lead to strengthening winds
throughout the TAF period. Gusty swly to wly winds will diminish
aft sunset. FU from nearby wildfires may create lcl vis
reductions overnight and through tomorrow. Swly winds will pick up
again areawide tomorrow with gusts of 35 to 45 kts commonplace.
Increased limiting of vis will be possible due to BLDU and FU.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024
...DANGEROUS FIRE GROWING PATTERN WILL PEAK SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED...
The ongoing fire growing pattern will peak on Saturday as an upper
level trough and associated dry slot shifts over NM. Ridge top winds
will remain elevated tonight with poor humidity recovery over much
of the region. Low humidity before sunrise will lead into widespread
critical to locally extreme fire weather by noon with 20ft southwest
winds gusting to between 35 and 45 mph by early afternoon. Above
normal temps and high Haines across southern and eastern areas will
coincide with an extended duration of single digit humidity. Winds
will gradually shift out of the west thru late Saturday afternoon
and early evening as a weak cold front slides across NM. Critical
conditions will taper off Saturday evening however west winds will
remain gusty along the east slopes of the central mt chain with mt
wave activity in the wake of the departing trough. One more day of
critical conditions is possible over the high plains of eastern NM
Sunday but with lighter winds and higher humidity.
Relief will finally arrive beginning Monday as a weak upper level
ridge builds over NM next week. Winds will trend lighter through
Thursday while moisture begins to slosh westward from west TX into
eastern NM. The coverage of storms with wetting rainfall may also
increase over eastern NM in this pattern. The warmest temps of this
season are likely for central and western NM next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 47 78 44 79 / 0 5 0 0
Dulce........................... 40 72 34 75 / 0 10 0 0
Cuba............................ 43 73 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 39 74 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 40 70 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 41 75 38 78 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 41 74 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 49 78 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
Datil........................... 43 73 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 36 78 34 82 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 50 81 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 37 66 33 69 / 0 10 0 0
Los Alamos...................... 51 74 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
Pecos........................... 46 74 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 40 67 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
Red River....................... 37 63 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
Angel Fire...................... 36 66 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
Taos............................ 39 74 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
Mora............................ 46 72 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
Espanola........................ 51 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 48 76 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 47 80 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 54 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 86 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
Belen........................... 51 87 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 55 84 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 50 86 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 52 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 50 86 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 54 80 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 54 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 54 90 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 75 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 49 79 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 48 79 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 45 81 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 46 75 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Mountainair..................... 49 80 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 46 80 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 55 83 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 52 75 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
Capulin......................... 42 77 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
Raton........................... 41 80 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
Springer........................ 44 81 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 48 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Clayton......................... 48 86 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
Roy............................. 48 81 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 53 89 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 54 85 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 53 91 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 54 93 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
Portales........................ 53 95 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 54 91 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 57 98 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 55 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
Elk............................. 53 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ101-
104>106-109-120>126.
Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ223-224-
226>229-231>233-239.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ123.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for NMZ125.
High Wind Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ240.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...12
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
906 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The unsettled weather pattern continues with chances of showers
and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Sunday (35-80%
chance) and Monday 25-35% chance) before things dry out for much
of the rest of the forecast.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Weak vort/disturbance noted on water vapor across eastern MT into
western ND, responsible for scattered showers over said region.
Upstream KBIS radar showing activity moving eastward along the
southern portion of ND, with trajectory perhaps taking it into
the far northern CWA over the next few hours. Latest HRRR runs,
along with various hi-res output does show potential for isolated
or widely scattered light showers moving eastward along the ND/SD
state line over the next several hours. Added slight chance PoPs
to account for this. Some of this cloud cover may keep lows up
just a couple degrees from previous forecast lows. That said,
still a cool night in store with lows in the upper 30s to low/mid
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Occluded low pressure will exit the region this evening. Strong
northwest winds associated with the cold air advection in the upper
low will diminish as well this evening. Some areas along the ND/SD
border did receive a mix of rain and snow as temperatures fell into
the 30s. That`s leaving a big question mark for overnight lows as
clouds clear out. Dewpoints are in the upper 30s and 40s this
afternoon, so don`t have lows falling below 37 degrees right now,
but that`s dependent on places like McPherson county seeing some
rebound after the last of the precip exits over the next couple of
hours. If there`s no recovery, a frost advisory may be warranted.
Heights rise on Saturday and winds shift to the south and east on
the northeast side of another Colorado low. Shortwave energy moving
through the upper flow may generate some showers and thunderstorms
as early as 11am across south central SD before more thunderstorms
develop in increasing instability in the afternoon. Expecting just
general thunder due to limited moisture and temperatures, but 30 to
80% chances for convective showers push east and north on the
shortwaves through the afternoon as a weak sfc trough/boundary
develops.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Sunday morning starts the long term with a shortwave moving across
the area. Deterministic models show this lasting through at least
the first part of Monday afternoon. Monday evening, a ridge starts
to build into the region and looks to last through mid week. We are
starting to see a shortwave ride that ridge across the area on
Thursday. By Friday evening we are on the upwind side of the ridge
and a low reaching down from southern Canada starts to move into the
region.
Sunday will have some chances (25-65%) for rain with that shortwave.
While some storms could form, it is unlikely they will become
severe. Wednesday evening, rain chances (15-25%) return for the rest
of the term as the Thursday (20-40%) shortwave rolls through
followed by the incoming trough on Friday (30-40%). With mid level
lapse rates between 6.5 and 8.5 C/km and MLCAPE values around 1000
to 2000 J/kg (depending on model), some storms have the potential to
become severe Thursday afternoon and evening and potentially again
Friday evening. This is still 6 to 7 days out so things could
change.
Temperatures for the first part of the long term will be rising back
up to around normal with highs in the high 70s to low 80s expected
Wednesday and Thursday. With the increased rain chances Friday,
highs look to be closer to the mid 70s. At the moment, winds look to
remain around normal for the entire period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 711 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A few lingering CIGs around 3000ft at KATY right at the start of
the TAF period, otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the
TAF period. Gusty westerly surface winds will quickly subside
across KABR/KATY by sunset.
For KPIR: CIGs from 20-25k feet Saturday morning are forecast to
gradually lower to around 9-10k feet (BKN-OVC) during the
afternoon hours. There is potential for scattered -SHRA/-TSRA near
and south of KPIR at the very end of the TAF period (22Z-00Z) or
just beyond the TAF period, but with low confidence on timing or
placement of potential precipitation.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...TMT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
744 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024
The first storms of the afternoon are currently firing across
northern portions of Central Alabama and also across eastern
Mississippi. These storms are developing along an old outflow
boundary that is moving southeastward from previous MCS activity
that occurred in Tennessee early this morning. We`ve got plenty of
instability to work with this afternoon, with 3000-3500 J/kg of
SBCAPE, 40-50 knots of effective westerly bulk shear, and steep
lapse rates aloft. LI`s are coming in between -5 and -8 along and
west of the I-65 corridor. Uncertainties currently exist in terms
of overall coverage of storms this afternoon, but it would not be
out of the question for another MCS or multiple clusters of storms
to develop and move southeast through this evening. The best
chance of this occurring would be where the severe storm has
currently developed in Monroe County, MS. With unidirectional
shear profiles, damaging straight-line winds and large hail will
be the main hazards with these storms. RAP analysis indicates the
highest amount of DCAPE across western and southwestern counties,
which could also help produce a better-defined cold pool boundary.
We`ll see how trends evolve as we go through the afternoon.
In the meantime, likely PoPs will remain in the forecast for the
northern half of the area through this afternoon, with high PoPs
continuing to the southeast before diminishing into the overnight
hours. With westerly flow aloft continuing overnight, upper level
shortwave activity will help develop additional clusters of
showers and storms across southern Arkansas and northern
Mississippi. We`ll watch those storms as they move east between
midnight and 7am, as some of those could be on the strong side
depending on how much available instability is still left from
today`s activity. PoPs have been updated to high chance
probability due to the uncertainty in placement of the storms, but
may need to be increased into the likely category before all is
said and done. Strong to isolated severe storms will remain in the
forecast Saturday afternoon through Saturday night as another
shortwave impulse moves eastward. Scattered to perhaps numerous
showers and storms are possible if enough daytime heating occurs
behind the morning activity. In terms of the CAMs, some are
showing more convective development than others, but we should
have enough support in the synoptic scale for storm development.
Hail and gusty winds will be the main hazards through Saturday,
which will be conditional based on mesoscale conditions.
56/GDG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024
Model trends continue to keep MCS activity to our north on Sunday.
If outflow boundaries push into north Central Alabama and interact
with an airmass characterized by more than 1800 J/kg CAPE and bulk
shear of 35kts, a few strong to severe storms are possible. With a
slight increase in midlevel heights, it will take some focus or
boundary interaction to kick convection off. By Sunday night, a
weak front and convective line/cluster approaches the Tennessee
Valley. There`s some uncertainty on whether the line is weakening
as it moves into north Central Alabama Monday morning, as upper
level support lifts away from the area. This would leave
boundaries to interact with an unstable airmass through the day,
with scattered thunderstorms expected. If a more organized line of
storms pushes southward Monday morning, it is unlikely there will
be airmass recovery to support strong storms during the afternoon.
For now will not post threats for Monday, and wait to see how
model trends evolve.
Troughing moves to the east by Tuesday, with mid level flow
becoming northwesterly. This will allow a slightly cooler and
drier airmass to settle over the area through mid week.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024
This period has the potential of being active across Central
Alabama. A few storms were still ongoing west of MGM while
additional storms were back to the northwest. Due to anticipated sparse
coverage, nothing was mentioned at any terminal through 09z. Will
have to update if something comes closer than expected. Another
upper level feature will bring thunderstorm chances after 09z.
This feature will traverse the area from west to east through
Saturday.
Low level moisture pools near the surface on Saturday morning. It
appears ceilings will develop around 12z at IFR and gradually rise
by afternoon outside thunderstorm areas. Will hold all thunder
mention at PROB30 until the best timing can be achieved. Winds
will generally be light and variable throughout.
75
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Several opportunities for rain and storms through Monday, as
several impulses provide focus for convection. Enhanced coverage
is expected during the afternoon and evening, especially across
northern counties. 20 foot winds will be from the south to
southwest at less than 5 mph Saturday, increasing to 6-12mph on
Sunday. Min RH value will be near or above 45 percent through
Monday, with overnight recoveries near 100%.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 66 88 67 91 / 30 60 20 20
Anniston 68 88 69 90 / 30 50 20 20
Birmingham 71 89 71 91 / 30 50 20 20
Tuscaloosa 71 91 71 92 / 30 40 10 10
Calera 70 88 71 90 / 20 50 20 10
Auburn 70 86 70 88 / 20 30 10 10
Montgomery 72 90 71 92 / 20 30 10 0
Troy 71 90 70 91 / 20 30 10 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...75
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1045 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary is expected to stall near the forecast area
resulting in chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend. Another, more organized system is expected to cross
the eastern US Monday and Tuesday with additional chances for
thunderstorms. Drier weather is expected to return Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the forecast
area this evening with the strongest convection currently moving
through portions of Fairfield and Richland counties. CAMs
suggest that this activity will wind down during the next few
hours. However, the latest HRRR indicates the potential for
isolated development across our northern counties towards
daybreak. PoPs have been adjusted accordingly with values
decreasing across the remainder of the forecast area. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday and Saturday Night: An upper shortwave trough over the
region early in the day is expected to slide eastward and deepen
as it moves over the coast. Behind it, northwest flow aloft is
forecast to bring in slightly drier air; however, PWATs are
anticipated to remain above 1.5" through much of the afternoon
and evening as latest guidance indicates the drier air arrives
a bit slower than previous model runs. Upper ridging is also
forecast to begin building over the region, in general, but
shortwave energy moving through the main pattern should be
enough to kick off a round of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. There remains some question on how much coverage
we`ll see because of a general lack of triggering mechanism in
the area. The potential for severe weather remains on the lower
side, but strong winds would be the main threat with any
stronger cells.
Sunday and Sunday Night: The upper level ridging continues to
strengthen over the region as southerly low-level flow becomes
more established. As a result, moisture begins to increase again
through the day and temperatures rise to the lower to mid 90s,
causing heat indices to approach, or even exceed, 100F in the
afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are
again possible, though it may be difficult to get much coverage
given the ridge overhead and another lack of triggering
mechanism. The higher chance of activity remains over the
northern portions of the forecast areas. If storms are able to
form, there remains potential for them to become strong to
severe with winds being the primary threat with the stronger
storms. However, the potential for any storms to form has been
on a downward trend.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper trough over the central CONUS is forecast to begin
moving towards the region on Monday. An associated frontal
boundary is forecast to move through the area, sparking another
round of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area.
With cooling heights aloft and a more pronounced triggering
mechanism, the potential for severe weather returns for Monday.
As it looks now, Monday looks to be the highest chance for
severe weather. The trough continues to pass over Tuesday,
bringing another round of showers and storms, but the severe
threat looks low at this point. Drier air is then expected to
move into the region for most of the rest of the period. Rain is
thus not anticipated through the forecast period, but there is
uncertainty between model guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Patchy fog may develop overnight mainly at AGS/DNL with
resulting restrictions. VFR expected by 14z Saturday. Scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
At 03z, A pressure ridge is centered off the coast with weak south-
westerly flow across the area. Scattered convection has
diminished across the area with considerable mid level ceilings
remaining.
The latest guidance at 03z suggests a lower threat for stratus
overnight. However, with lamp continuing to suggest fog at AGS
and DNL and fog developing upstream despite mid level clouds,
went with a period of MVFR conditions at those terminals through
13z. Scattered thunderstorms possible after 18z Saturday as
weak upper level troughs move through the area and air mass
likely moderately unstable.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible at times
through early next week in afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1008 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain above normal through the holiday weekend
with a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A cold front
on Monday brings a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler and drier conditions move in behind the front and remain
through the end of the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Friday: Convection continues to fire this evening
across the forecast area, with the most recent activity confined to
the Highway 221 corridor and vicinity. The latest SPC Mesoanalysis
indicates muCAPE has been reduced to around 1000 J/kg or less, so
the potential for severe convection has largely waned, but a few
stronger cells producing gusty winds will remain possible. Based
upon radar trends, PoPs only lower slowly over the next few hours.
Some areas, particularly western zones will not see PoPs drop below
20% overnight. However, the 00Z run of the HRRR has backed off
considerably re: chances for late night redevelopment in association
with a weak short wave trough. Therefore, PoPs will be limited to
the token 20-30% range.
Areas that get rain this evening can expect some patchy fog before
dawn, but that won`t last long before skies clear. Lows will fall
into the mid-60s again. Another round of convection is expected
tomorrow, but should be even less active than today. Weak ridging
will begin to develop over the Southeast CONUS overnight, and the
only supporting upper feature for convection will be an embedded
shortwave that dips across the Appalachians and into the Piedmont by
afternoon. CAMs suggest that a line of showers and thunderstorms
will cross the area during the mid-afternoon, organized more by
their supporting upper feature than by any inherent storm-scale
dynamics. Sans much of an upper wave to work with, there`s pretty
good consensus that deep shear will be <20kts, and so severe risk
looks muted compared to today`s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday: A short wave ridge builds in on Sunday but
there is a short wave trough that weakens as it moves through the
ridge. Guidance has backed off on precip chances in response, with
chc PoP north of the I-85 corridor and slight chc along and south.
Have followed this trend as well. Any storms that do fire could
become severe with moderate instability and shear, along with dry
mid level air, in place. Precip chances increase late Sunday night
into Monday as the ridge moves east and a stronger short wave digs
across the area. PoP still favors the area north of the I-85
corridor with likely PoP and chance along and south. Severe storms
look less likely even though shear remains moderate. There is less
mid level dry air and low level lapse rates aren`t as steep. Temps
will be up to 10 degrees above normal both days, with 90 possible
along and south of I-85.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM Friday: A series of short waves dig out a trough across
the eastern CONUS which remains in place through the end of the
period. Moisture lingers behind the the cold front moving through
Monday night, keeping a small chance of convection on Tuesday. Drier
and cooler high pressure builds in for the rest of the period. Temps
will remain above normal on Tuesday then fall to near normal for
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated convection is ongoing across the
Terminal Forecast Area this evening. Most of the activity is
concentrated near KGSP, so tempos for TSRA are included for the
first hour there, as well as at KGMU. VCSH or VCTS is carried at the
other sites (with the exception of KHKY). This includes KCLT, where
confidence is waning that convection will occur this evening, so
VCSH has replaced the tempo for TSRA. Having said that, some of the
high resolution guidance is redeveloping convection overnight in
association with a weak upper air disturbance. For the most part,
the current TAFS reflect little in the way of convective activity
after midnight, but this may need to be revisited later this
evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are generally forecast through
the period, although some 4-6SM BR is possible toward daybreak,
especially in the mtn valleys (including KAVL). Winds will generally
be light and variable overnight, and light westerly during the
daylight hours Saturday. Isolated to widely scattered convection is
expected to develop again Sat evening, warranting Prob30s for TSRA
at most sites.
Outlook: A unsettled pattern will linger thru the rest of the
weekend and into early next week, allowing for diurnal shower and
thunderstorm chances each day and at least patchy fog development
each night/morning.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JDL/MPR
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
955 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 955 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Scattered but intense thunderstorm activity which was occurring
earlier this evening in the vicinity of a mesoscale outflow
boundary across southeastern AR/northern MS will continue to
dissipate as it drifts southeastward late this evening. Attention
for the remainder of the overnight period will turn to a broad
axis of frontal convection currently in progress from southern
Lake MI southwestward into eastern OK/western AR.
Guidance from recent versions of the HRRR as well as most members
of the 12Z HREF suggest that a forward propagating MCS will
ultimately evolve out of this convection (likely the portion
currently extending from southeastern MO into western AR) and
spread southeastward into northern AL/southern TN early Saturday
morning. However, as is typically the case with these events,
there are subtle differences in timing, intensity and path of the
projected MCS. At this point, our best guess is that this feature
will arrive in the northwest portion of the forecast area by 4 AM
CDT (but could potentially arrive as early as 2-3 AM if a well
developed cold pool in its wake leads to east-southeastward
acceleration). Although some weakening may occur as the convective
complex spreads further southeastward through 7 AM, elevated CAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg and modest WNW flow aloft of 20-30 knots will
support a risk of strong-severe storms, featuring wind gusts (up
to 50-60 MPH) and hail, in addition to frequent lighting and
locally heavy rain, which could result in minor flooding after
rainfall received earlier today.
POP and weather grids have been updated to reflect the scenario
mentioned above, and other elements of the forecast appear on
track. As temperatures begin to approach forecasted lows in the
m-u 60s, some patchy fog will be possible (particularly across
northeast AL).
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
This convection should fade in intensity a few hours after sunrise
as it moves to the SE. The rest of the day Sat for the most part
looks to be dry. That said, this area is in a conditionally
unstable environment, with daytime heating and steeper lapse
rates making a regeneration of afternoon showers and storms not a
zero chance. Staying with a dry forecast, muggy conditions are
expected to close out the week with highs rising into the
mid/upper 80s, and lows that night in the mid/upper 60s. Sunday
should be even warmer with highs topping out around 90, with
marginal shower and thunderstorm development possible.
Things look to change more dramatically Sunday night, as a system
now moving across central California heads rapidly to the east.
This system as it traverses the CONUS will help develop a synoptic
low near the Front Range on Sat, with this low moving to the Great
Lakes. As it nears the Great Lakes on Mon, it will bring a cold
front towards this area. Lift occurring east of this boundary and
our region in an unstable environment will be favorable for the
development of more organized convection.
A few items to note with this system. It appears to be taking a
more northward track per successive runs and was a bit slower. IF
this trend continues, it would help lower an overall severe
threat. A Slight Risk that this area is delineated in the Day-3
outlook has shifted a bit to the north. Also a greater distance
from the parent low would help in this regard. Despite those
items, the timing of the strongest forcing will be in the late
night into Monday morning. CAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg and
helicity values from 100-200 m/s and deep shear in the 40-55kt
would support all modes of severe weather, with damaging wind
gusts the main threat. A chance of showers and storms should
continue into Monday, as the main front finally moves in a NW-SE
manner across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024
A broader troughing pattern sets up Monday night for the eastern
CONUS and will persist through the remainder of next week. While
our next chance at storms is a lower end potential on Wednesday,
the pattern overall looks to be drier with temperatures closer to
daily average values in the low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
VFR conditions are currently observed at the terminals, featuring
sct mid/high-lvl clouds and a SSE flow of 5-10 kts. Although we
will be monitoring convective trends across northern MS for
potential impacts later this evening at MSL, present indications
are that small clusters of storms to the south of Memphis should
progress southeastward and weaken btwn 0-3Z. Light BR/FG may also
develop in a few locations later this evening (if winds diminish
sufficiently and skies remain partially clear), but we have not
included vsby reductions in the TAFs (due to fog) at this point.
During the early morning hours, storms currently in progress
across eastern MO/western IL are predicted to grow into a forward
propagating MCS that should track southeastward through northern
AL in the hours around sunrise. Due to increasing confidence in
this scenario, we have introduced PROB30 groups for MVFR cigs/vsby
at MSL/9-14Z and HSV/10-15Z. VFR conditions will return late
Saturday morning, with the caveat that additional but more
isolated afternoon TSRA may redevelop across the region invof a
differential heating boundary in the wake of the morning MCS.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...70/DD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild and quiet this afternoon
- Thunderstorms (some likely severe) late afternoon Saturday and
into overnight
- Quiet weather start to next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Much drier air is moving into the CWA this afternoon bringing
surface and boundary layer Tds down in the 40s. This will make for
dry but windy afternoon with a pleasant evening once the winds die
off. During the night, the dry air will remain entrenched and will
allow overnight lows to dip into the mid to low 50s across the
region with a few areas possibly getting into the upper 40s. While
cold for this time of year, record lows are not expected.
Saturday the forecast becomes tricky. The next weather system will
be encroaching on the CWA from the west and the winds will be
turning to the south during the early morning. This next system is
rather strong in the mid and upper levels and will create a
potential severe weather event for the CWA. There still remains a
great deal of uncertainty as to the location and amount of areal
coverage of any resultant thunderstorm activity. This is due to
the orientation of the high pressure system to the northeast of the
CWA. Most ensembles agree this high pressure system will be in the
Southern Great Lakes region or Northern Ohio Valley. This placement
indicates a ridge of high pressure is likely to be over much of
Central and Northern Kansas Saturday morning. This will make it
difficult for moisture advection to take over and likely create a
moderately strong mid-level cap. Most ensemble families indicate
boundary layer Tds will start in the 40s and low 50s across the
region with Southeast Kansas likely to see the mid 50s around 12Z.
The GFS/NAM families are in the lower of the 50s and even upper 40s
for Tds across the CWA Saturday morning. All the ensembles indicate
that moisture advection will begin the mid to late morning and
continue through the day. This is where the ensemble families
diverge. The RAP and ECMWF families have a much more rapid increase
in moisture through the day while the NAM/GFS families are much
slower. This appears to be due to the projected speed of the 700mb
low which is much quicker on the RAP/ECMWF families. This solution
allows the boundary layer Tds of 65-70+F to arrive by mid to late
Saturday afternoon. The GFS/NAM families are much slower bringing
the 65-70+F boundary layer Tds into South Central Kansas closer to
the evening hours Saturday. This difference will play a critical
role in the timing and location of the severe weather for Saturday.
The models trends are currently favoring the NAM/GFS solution
indicating the better chances for thunderstorm activity will be
around or after 00Z Saturday evening.
Regardless of timing, shear profiles and lapse rates are supportive
of severe thunderstorm activity throughout Saturday afternoon
and into the overnight period. The lack of quality moisture
creates a conditional thunderstorm threat for Saturday
afternoon. If a storm is able to get going, it will grow upscale
into the severe category rather quick with all threats possible
(very large damaging hail and/or a few strong tornadoes). At
this time, it appears the needed moisture to get thunderstorms
going will not arrive until the very late afternoon and evening
Saturday. By Saturday evening, the boundary layer moisture will
likely be in place and the dry line will be moving through the
CWA. This is the time confidence in thunderstorm developing is
the greatest. The shear profiles by Saturday evening begin to
favor a more squall line set up rather than discrete super
cells. While discrete super cells are expected upon initiation,
these super cells are expected to quickly cluster and form a
more squall line mode with in a few hours of initiation. This
will make all threats possible to start (large damaging hail and
a few strong tornadoes) then after the squall line develops, a
more wind threat (65-75 mph) likely during the late evening and
overnight period. This thunderstorm activity is currently
expected to exit the CWA by Sunday morning.
Sunday and into next week will start off quiet and dry with
northwest winds expected for Sunday afternoon and into the Monday.
By Tuesday, the winds will shift more southerly and will increase
the moisture once again. This will also increase the chances for
showers and thunderstorms but this activity does not look nearly as
organized as the activity expected for this Saturday. Temperatures
are expected to remain near normal for this time of year as the
incoming cooler air behind the Saturday`s front is not Pacific in
origin. This will keep temperatures close to normal for much of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Breezy northwest winds will gradually diminish this evening as
high pressure builds into the region. Breezy southeast winds
will return from west to east as low pressure deepens over the
High Plains. VFR is anticipated into the day tomorrow with the
best chance for storms arriving during the evening hours on
Saturday.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...MWM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
958 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Stormy pattern with risks of strong to severe storms and
localized flooding issues will continue into Monday.
* The greatest threat for severe weather will likely come Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night ahead of a cold front. Severe storms
will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and
tornadoes.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
Current radar imagery shows fairly disorganized multicell clusters
moving across southern Illinois ahead of the cold front. Aside from
the mesoscale lifting provide by marked low-level frontogenesis, the
environment downstream of the front is characterized by moderate
elevated instability, improving mid-level lapse rates, and favorable
upper-level divergence. That being said, the surface layer is
steadily stabilizing north to south due to the lack of diabatic
heating and cooling effect from previous convection. As a result,
HRRR has been consistently showing an overall decreasing trend in
strongest convection over the Upper Ohio Valley, which is validated
by radar and lightning trends over the past hour. On the other hand,
the southern edge of the upstream cluster, currently over MO and IL,
will remain relatively active as it will tap into the elevated
instability gradient and convergence along the southward sagging
front. This will translate in higher chances of overnight rain and
lightning chances for the western third of the forecast area, with
the possibility of small hail and sub-severe wind gusts accompanying
the strongest updrafts. One tricky aspect of tonight storm coverage
will the eastward extension of the storm activity as individual
multicell elements are moving east-northeast while the overall
mesoscale system is heading to the south-southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
Currently, a cold front stretches from eastern Iowa south-southwest
back through Oklahoma City and continues on through Texas. Ahead of
the front, 5-10 mph southerly winds are keeping precipitable water
values mostly around 1.25" over the Lower Ohio Valley. Some pooling
in the area will cause pockets of 1.5" values, so we have plenty of
moisture in place with dew points ranging from the mid 60s to low
70s. Even after parts of southern Indiana and central Kentucky saw
clear skies earlier this morning, most areas now are seeing some
level of cloud cover debris from convection over western Kentucky
and Tennessee. This hasn`t limited instability too much as SPC`s
mesoanalysis currently shows 1,000 to 2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE over the
CWA, and over the next few hours, these values could grow 500 or so
more. With that being said, there is no shear. Deep layer, 0-6km
bulk shear, values are around 10 knots, so any thunderstorms today
would be limited in their development potential.
For the rest of this afternoon and evening, many areas will likely
remain dry, but a broken line of convection, that is currently
stretching northwest to southeast over the CWA, is expected to
continue to the east. Any development could produce lightning and
some gusty winds. Severe weather isn`t expected, but a warning or
two is possible.
Tonight, as the earlier line of convection is ending in eastern
Kentucky, convection ahead of the front is expected to dive
southeast across southern Illinois and far southwest Indiana as it
travels towards the Lake Cumberland region. Being that the line is
expected to arrive after midnight, any storms should be elevated, so
winds will be less of a threat. Some hail could still be possible
before the line exits the region during the predawn hours. Believe
skies will remain cloudy for most of the night which will help limit
fog development. Some patchy fog will be possible, but not expecting
the widespread dense fog like we saw this morning. Lows are expected
to remain near normal in the low to mid 60s.
Tomorrow, the cold front should make it to near the Ohio River
between Indiana and Kentucky before it stalls. Precipitable water
values will remain slightly over an inch, and dew points will reach
the mid 60s. As high pressure tries to make it into the region,
winds throughout the day will begin veering towards the west and
northwest as skies become mostly sunny. This will help to begin to
dry the region. Can`t rule out some low chances for precipitation,
but it should be a dry day after the early morning precipitation
exits southern Kentucky. Highs should reach into the low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
Some isolated showers and storms may linger into the early parts of
the overnight hours Saturday but should steadily taper off toward
midnight with a strengthening nocturnal inversion. The rest of the
overnight hours are shaping up to be fairly quiet.
By dawn Sunday morning, a strong LLJ will begin nosing in from the
west. Some scattered showers and storms could accompany the arrival
of the LLJ, but more notably, we`ll gradually see an uptick in low
level moisture through the day as the LLJ overspreads the region and
the stalled frontal boundary across northern portions of the CWA
lifts northward as a warm front.
By the afternoon, we should see some clearing/drying within the warm
sector of an approaching low/cold front. Models predict very
unstable conditions as increasing low level moisture and steepening
low/mid level lapse rates result in MLCAPE surging into the 2,000 to
+3,000 J/KG range. Environmental low level and deep layer shear will
also increase due to the presence of the LLJ and an approaching
upper level trough. Forecast soundings from most models reveal a
fairly stout capping inversion near 750-700mb, which will serve to
limit convective development. Forecast models vary on afternoon
storm initiation, with some keeping the cap strong enough to hold off
convection, while others initiate isolated convection along weak
mesoscale boundaries. Should storms overcome the cap during the
afternoon in this environment, they would be capable of damaging
winds, very large hail (+2"), and tornadoes.
Better forcing for storms looks to arrive Sunday night as the
surface cold front approaches from the west. We could see one (or
multiple) waves of convection ahead of the front and the convection
could consolidate into one large squall line. Damaging winds, large
hail, and tornadoes would be possible with severe storms. Storm
severity will be somewhat dependent on a couple of factors,
including: (1), the strength of the capping inversion overnight, and
(2) if we end up in a scenario where we have multiple rounds of
storms, will we destabilize enough in the wake of the first round to
support severe weather for subsequent rounds?
The cold front should begin pushing into the region Monday morning
ending the severe threat. Isolated/Scattered showers and perhaps a
storm could develop during the daytime hours but drier air will
gradually filter in from the northwest so rain chances should
steadily decrease by Monday night. Much of next week will feature
cooler than normal temperatures with more comfortable dewpoints and
mostly dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 734 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
Impacts/Confidence:
- Low confidence in timing and coverage of overnight precipitation
- Medium confidence in MVFR ceilings Saturday morning
Discussion...Tonight VFR conditions will deteriorate tomorrow
morning as a cold front moves and eventually stalls over the
forecast area. Early evening radar highlights two areas of ongoing
storm activity: a recently develop set over the Bluegrass and fairly
disorganized cluster tracking across southern Illinois. Of the two,
the latter is the most concerning as it will continue moving east-
southeast and approach the TAF vicinity around midnight. Based on
current model guidance, BWG will be the most likely terminal to have
any impacts from the aforementioned cluster with low confidence in
any eastward extension. As a result, any storm-related impact at HNB
and SDF will be addressed with AMD if needed. Otherwise, expect
winds turning from the south (tonight) to the west-northwest
(tomorrow) as the actual cold front sinks in while ceilings fall to
MVFR thresholds. VFR conditions will return tomorrow afternoon.
Extended Outlook.. Advection fog/stratus cannot be ruled out
Saturday night as the front lifts to the north.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ALL
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...ALL
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
636 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Thunderstorms will continue to develop through this evening with
some strong to severe storms possible and capable of primarily
large hail and damaging winds with a low threat of tornadoes.
-Severe thunderstorms are expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning
and possibly again during the afternoon/evening, with large
hail, damaging winds, and a tornado possible.
-Next week will usher in a pattern change toward drier, more
seasonal weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Storms continue to develop along and north of an outflow boundary
that stretches from north-central Missouri, where it intersects
with a cold front, southeastward into southwestern Illinois.
Forecast soundings in this area show that a very unstable airmass
with ML CAPEs 3000-4000 J/kg, ML LR of 7-8C/km and effective shear
of 35 to 50 kts will support organized storms, including
supercells and severe multicells, with large hail and damaging
winds the main threats, though can`t rule out a tornado or two as
well. Also, the latest HRRR indicates mean PWs around 1.5" and the
potential for back-building convection north of St. Louis that
could result in excessive rainfall rates up to 2"/hr, so flash
flood warnings may be needed.
Otherwise, the front will continue to move east through this evening
and convection will gradually diminish and weaken. The cold front
will exit the forecast area by 07z Saturday.
As a surface ridge builds into the region on Saturday, it will be
the pick day of the holiday weekend. Sunny, dry and warm conditions
expected with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
In the meantime, the upper level trough over the western CONUS will
begin to lift out towards the Great Lakes. As the associated surface
low deepens in the lee of the Rockies and accompanying warm front
lifts northward, convection will initiate on the nose of a strong
low level jet (50-60kts) Saturday evening as moist, unstable air
surges into the central Plains. Then as the low level jet veers over
time, the MCS that develops over northern KS will slide east across
the area. Still some uncertainty on the exact location of the warm
front/convection due to discrepancies among the deterministic as
well as ensemble models. For now stuck with the latest NBM solution
which has the best chances of rain along and north of I-70 late
Saturday night through Sunday. As for any strong to severe storms,
the best location will be along the southern periphery of the
complex where the strongest instability/shear will be (MU CAPEs
between 2000-3000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear 40-50kts), with all
hazards possible. Once the complex moves through, there is still
some uncertainty on afternoon/evening redevelopment depending on how
much the atmosphere can recover, where any outflow boundary sets up
and timing of the main cold front. So for now feel that the best
time for severe weather will be with the complex late Saturday night
through Sunday morning, though can`t rule out additional strong to
severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening.
Byrd
&&
.LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Next Friday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
As the system exits the region, the showers and storms will taper
off from west to east by late Sunday night. Another shortwave
will rotate around the surface low over the Great Lakes region.
This will bring another round of showers and a few thunderstorms
Monday afternoon. Then for the remainder of the forecast period,
upper level ridge will build over the western CONUS with a trough
in the east, so forecast area will remain in northwest flow aloft.
Thus temperatures will be a bit below normal with dry weather
through Thursday before the pattern begins to change late in the
work week.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Cold front beginning to move through the region. As of 23z, the
front has moved through KCOU and KUIN and will be through KJEF by
00z Saturday. The front will move through St. Louis metro area TAF
sites by 02z-03z Saturday. In the meantime, storms will be moving
through the metro area, so kept MVFR visibilities until front
moves through. Otherwise, winds will veer to the west to northwest
behind the front and gradually diminish. As ridge builds in,
winds will become light and variable most locations.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
645 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Windy conditions this evening with cooler and drier air
returning tonight.
- The active pattern continues for Memorial Day weekend,
especially Sunday when widespread rain is likely across
southern MN and western WI.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
A cold front has pushed into western WI this afternoon, sparking
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Eau Claire to
Ladysmith. Colder air is beginning to filter into western MN,
accompanied by gusty winds and increasing stratocu. The gusty
winds will continue through mid evening, and then as the low
continues northward into southern Canada, winds will ease
overnight. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s area wide.
Hot on the heels of today`s system, the next one to watch will
develop over eastern CO and western KS Saturday. A warm front
will set up across central MN in the afternoon and a few showers
may form along it. The compact low will progress northeast to IA
Sunday morning. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will remain
somewhat confined near the low center. Thus, rain totals and
PoPs will be heavily dependent on the track of the low itself
for Sunday. As one would expect, PoPs are highest across
southern MN and western WI, but there remains a lot of spread
among the ensemble guidance. At MSP, for example, QPF spread
ranges from zero to 2.5 inches on the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM
ensemble systems. The lighter totals are carrying the most
weight in the ensemble mean, but it illustrates the sensitivity
at hour 48 of the low track.
That system heads out Sunday night and northwest flow takes hold
for early next week. A couple disturbances embedded in the
northwest flow will bring shower and thunderstorm chances
Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will also fall to below normal
with highs in the 60s Tuesday.
Surface high pressure will build east to the eastern U.S. mid
to late week and allow southeast low level flow to moderate
temperatures back to near or above normal across the Upper
Midwest. Another trough approaching from the northern Rockies
may bring increasing chances for rain Thursday night and Friday,
but any precip should be encountering a lot of dry air this far
east with flow from the Gulf being cut off.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Extensive diurnal stratocu field out there this early evening
will slowly diminish after sunset, with the wind gusts following
suite a couple of hours later. We`ll start off Saturday with
mainly clear skies, but mid level clouds will be on the increase
through the day as a warm front slowly develops over central MN.
RAP forecast soundings are dry below 10k feet and it looks like
overrunning to the north of the boundary won`t start producing
-RA until it`s near an AXN/BRD line after 21z Sat, so for all by
AXN and maybe STC, Saturday looks dry. Winds this period will
slowly transition from the current west to a more SSW by the
end of the period, with some gustiness showing up again
Saturday afternoon in southern MN into western WI.
KMSP...There is a small threat for a shower Saturday between 21z
and 23z, though given the dry air below 10k feet, kept the TAF
dry.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind E to NE 10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind WNW 10-15G25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
807 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers, with some thunder, return early this evening and
shift east overnight followed by clearing skies late.
- Approaching low pressure system brings isolated shower or
thunderstorm chances to the far west Saturday evening then
widespread rain chances late Sunday into early Monday.
Rainfall amounts over 1 inch are possible by Monday evening.
- Below normal temperatures and a drying trend for much of next
week. Patchy frost possible Thursday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
Water vapor imagery and afternoon RAP analyses show a negatively
tilting midlevel trough over the Northern Plains, and an associated
994mb surface low centered over the western MN border. A pronounced
dry slot is curling into central MN. Robust warm air advection and
isentropic ascent into the Great Lakes out ahead of the system has
touched off convection across WI, but so far, though high cloud
cover is overspreading the Upper Peninsula, bands of showers/storms
haven`t survived the trek through northern WI given a very dry
airmass (see early afternoon NUCAPS profiles, latest model
soundings, and surface dewpoint depressions on the order of 20
degrees). Weak radar returns moving over the UP so far are not
producing much by any way of accumulations, but have allowed for some
isolated shower activity in the forecast across the western half of
the UP the rest of the afternoon. Some rumbles of thunder will also
be possible over the far west with a few flashes over Superior
already.
Meanwhile, in spite of increasing cloud cover, temperatures have
been able to rise quite nicely across the area with most of the UP
climbing well into the 60s already. Many spots should peak in the
lower 70s today. The exception remains areas along hte lakeshores,
where onshore flow is keeping temperatures from climbing out of the
50s along Superior, and suppressing them into the lower 60s along
Lake Michigan. Winds are turning gusty, particularly across the far
western UP so far where SE gusts up to 20-30mph are becoming more
common. Winds should pick up across the central and possibly eastern
UP into the early evening with a tightening pressure gradient and
increasing winds aloft.
As the increasingly vertically stacked system off to our northwest
moves northward over the Ontario/Manitoba border region, the base of
the midlevel trough swings through the area, eventually dragging a
cold front through the area late tonight. An associated swath of
convection currently over central and southern WI reaches the
southern UP by the early evening, and sweeps through from west to
east overnight before exiting eastward during the pre-dawn hours. So
far, under a capped atmosphere, CAPE remains quite limited, and this
should not improve much heading into the evening hours. Still, a
couple hundred j/kg of elevated CAPE is present off the soundings
this evening, so will not totally rule out some thunder. As far as
rain totals go, guidance continues to favor a widespread 0.20-
0.50in, and some higher embedded totals near (and perhaps in excess)
of 0.75in mainly along the WI border. Rain ends from west to east
the second half of the night as the dry slot moves in, with clearing
skies.
Otherwise, look for breezy conditions to continue into the night,
with SE winds continuing to gust to around 20 mph ahead of the
approaching boundary. Winds turn calmer behind this while shifting
more to the WSW. Temperatures, meanwhile, fall back into the lower
40s in the western UP (behind the boundary) and in the upper 40s to
lower 50s in the east (ahead of the boundary).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 459 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
The primary feature of interest for the long-term period is an
unseasonably strong low pressure lifting northeast across the region
Sunday and Monday. The UP stays on the chilly side of this system
leading to widespread soaking rain with embedded thunderstorms
possible, but nothing severe. A chilly Canadian ridge builds Tuesday-
Wednesday, lingers on Thursday, then shifts east Friday-Saturday. In
addition to being very dry with some fire wx potential, this air
mass appears cool enough to raise frost/freeze concerns. Frost seems
mostly likely/widespread Thursday morning, but may develop across
the west Wednesday morning.
Beginning with Saturday morning, rain showers should exit the far
eastern area early in the day leading to an almost completely dry
day. Mostly sunny skies allow temps to warm to around 70F amidst
breezy west-southwest winds that should limit lake breeze activity
to the eastern UP. A 30-40 knot southwesterly low level jet noses
into the western CWA around sunset with more than half of HREF
members initiating shower and thunderstorm activity across our
western tier of counties. The convective environment is CAPE
deficient with HREF means only rising to around 250 J/kg, but the
ensemble maximum approaches 1000 J/kg. The most likely outcome is
any storms that form should be limited to beneficial rain, but gusty
winds and small hail are possible if CAPE ends up being more
favorable. Probably broad-brushed PoPs too much for this time frame
since it may only occur far west, but wanted to increase from
previous forecast and kept QPF light. There is potential for QPF
>0.25" with the strongest or most persistent activity.
Sunday starts off dry with a surface low over eastern KS that
quickly moves northeast to southern WI by 00z Monday. Slowed PoPs a
bit on Sunday to account for the typical progressive bias in
NBM guidance. Also focused Sunday`s PoPs across the western UP
in the vicinity of an axis of frontogenesis extending north from
the surface low. The primary area of rainfall arrives Sunday
evening and EFI guidance shows the best signal for heavy
rainfall (>1 inch in 24 hours) across the eastern UP. Meager
CAPE combined with impressive dynamics results in chances for
embedded thunderstorms, but the primary associated hazard is to
increase rainfall rates. Dew points well above lake water temps
combined with rain and strongly convergent synoptic flow are all
favorable for a potentially dense advection fog event.
Steady rain chances shift east of the UP on Monday as showery
chances arrive across the west. These shower chances are forced by a
decaying upper level disturbance that digs southeast across the UP
Monday night and Tuesday. It`s too early to dig into the details,
but fairly chilly mid-levels suggests steep lapse rates and
diurnally enhanced rain shower chances. Precipitation amounts appear
light and should end Wednesday morning -if not sooner- as a cool and
dry Canadian surface ridge builds southeast into the area. This
ridge appears to park itself over the Great Lakes region for several
days resulting in a stretch of prime springtime weather with highs
in the 50s/60s and lows in 30s/40s beneath mostly sunny skies. There
is a threat for frost with this chilly air mass so folks with
sensitive vegetation should monitor forecasts accordingly.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 806 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
Low pres over far ne ND will swing an occluded front across Upper MI
tonight with shra and isold tsra possible until fropa. At IWD,
initial VFR will fall to MVFR this evening with best chc of shra and
perhaps tsra for an hr or two prior to fropa. Ocnl MVFR cigs may
follow fropa for several hrs before VFR sets in for the remainder of
the fcst period. Gusty SSE winds to 20kt will become SW after fropa.
On Sat, gusty sw winds to around 25kt are expected at IWD. At CMX,
initial VFR will fall to MVFR around 05z. Combination of shra and
upslope ESE winds off of the lake increases potential of IFR
conditions for a few hrs prior to fropa. Attm, potential of tsra
occurring at CMX is too low to include mention in fcst. Along with
gusty ESE winds to around 25kt this evening, LLWS is also expected.
Following fropa, upslope westerly winds gusting to 25-30kt should
lead to MVFR cigs hanging on to around mid morning. VFR expected
thereafter at CMX. At SAW, radar imagery shows a more widespread
area of -shra developing upstream. So, expect frequent shra for the
next few hrs along with potential of an ocnl tsra. Combination of
shra and upslope SE winds increases potential of IFR conditions for
a few hrs prior to fropa. A period of MVFR cigs following fropa will
then give way to VFR by midmorning. Expect gusty westerly winds
to around 20kt at SAW on Sat.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 459 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
Northeast gales to 40 knots continue across the far western lake
with east winds of 20 to 30 knots across most of the central lake
this afternoon ahead of a low pressure currently near Grand Forks,
ND. East winds up to 30 knots gradually shift to the north-central
lake tonight ahead of a cold front that shift southwesterly.
Southwest winds around 25 knots are expected across the west half of
Lake Superior on Saturday morning before decreasing to 20 knots or
less by the evening and continuing through the rest of the weekend
as a high pressure ridge builds over the area. Another system tracks
northeast across the Great Lakes region Sunday night and Monday with
generally northerly winds of 20 to 25 knots, mainly across the
eastern half of the lake.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...EK
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...EK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1058 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
No major updates tonight with low PoPs expected overnight as a
weak shortwave/MCV near the Cumberland Plateau moves eastward. A
few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but most
areas remain dry tonight.
The complex of showers and thunderstorms across MO/IL/IN is
expected to move southeastward tonight and arrive in our area
early Saturday morning around 12-14z. At this time, no severe
convection is expected with less instability overnight, but some
gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning will be possible.
JB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
Key Messages:
1. Some showers and thunderstorms in the southern TN Valley and SW
NC through the evening.
2. Upstream MCS remnants may affect the area Saturday morning, but
confidence is low.
Discussion:
Storms have begun to develop in N GA where surface heating has been
occurring, near the outflow boundary from morning convection and
ahead of a weak shortwave trough. This activity will slowly track
E- NE, mainly affecting the TN border counties and SW NC. Outflow
from these storm may initiate new storms farther north into the
central Valley through the evening. Severe storms are unlikely as
shear decreases north of GA and cirrus has been limiting
instability. The shortwave trough exits to the east by 06Z, and
storms should dissipate by that time.
Convection over MO/IL this afternoon is expected to merge into a MCS
that will propagate SE through the evening. Models differ on how
well it will hold together during this journey, with the HRRR being
the strongest as it enters our area around 09-12Z. A severe threat
seems unlikely given this overnight timing and the weak wind profile
ahead of it - the stronger storms with it may stay well to our west.
The forecast will bring increasing PoPs to the Plateau around
sunrise, spreading eastward through the morning, but only in the
chance range for now as CAMS do not agree. The chance of convective
development in the afternoon is uncertain as any morning precip will
likely work over the environment and suppress afternoon development.
Will keep some low/slight chance PoPs in the afternoon due to the
uncertainties with the morning system.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
Key Messages:
1. Evening showers and storms Saturday then scattered activity
Sunday. Another round of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday
night into Memorial Day.
2. Some of the storms may be strong to severe Sunday night into
Monday morning. Localized flooding will also be possible Sunday
into Monday afternoon.
3. Drier and cooler weather expected to begin Tuesday night through
the end of next week. Only slight rain chances Tuesday during the
day and Wednesday afternoon into the evening northeast part of
the forecast area.
Discussion:
Saturday night after anticipated afternoon showers and storms
continue to dissipate skies will be partly cloudy with some patchy
fog and there will be a brief lull in convection. A weak cold front
will become nearly stationary to the north over the Ohio Valley.
Sunday with a front to the north and a deep low pressure area over
the central plains, the atmosphere will be moist and unstable out
ahead of the cold front. Shortwave energy also out ahead of this
front, south of the warm front and to the west and northwest of
the eastern Tennessee Valley will be triggering more convective
development overnight Saturday night and into the day Sunday. GFS
and European models showing scattered showers and storms
developing or moving in either in the morning or by early
afternoon. Right now storms don`t look to be severe and rainfall
amounts look to be lighter than the last couple days. Later Sunday
as the deep low moves northeast from the central Plains to Lake
Michigan and the Canadian border severe storms are likely to
develop across the western Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Sunday
evening and then move southeast into Tennessee by around 06 to
12Z. The storms should weaken through time but pose a risk for
damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts late Sunday
night and Monday morning could reach well over 1 inch and possibly
2 inches in a few spots. The northern plateau would
likely see the most rainfall. An isolated tornado or two could
occur within the anticipated line of storms. The timing of he
storms development to the northwest will affect the strength of
the system and the later development takes place the less intense
it might be as it approaches east Tennesse.
The showers and thunderstorms with the complex or line moving down
from the northwest should continue through at least Monday morning
and weaken as it moves far enough ahead of the main front in the
Ohio Valley. The frontal passage associated with this system will
still be over the Ohio Valley Monday morning. The front should
cross the forecast area Monday afternoon or early evening. NAM
model is also showing additional convection Monday afternoon and
early evening along the front so expect some more storms that
could be strong if the atmosphere can recover from the morning
storms. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will stay above normal
in the 80s each day but may reach 90 in the southern Valley
Sunday. Temperatures slightly cooler Monday.
From Tuesday onward as the upper trough settles over the region
there will be only a slight chance of showers early Tuesday in the
northeast and again Wednesday afternoon to early evening as
shortwaves move south through the NW flow. The deep upper trough may
even close off by the end of the week. From Tuesday through Friday
temperatures will be several degrees cooler with highs Wednesday and
Thursday only in the 70s to near 80 during the day and 50s at night
Wednesday through Friday mornings. Some locations in the northeast
will drop into the upper 40s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly
sunny during the day and mostly clear at night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024
VFR conditions will continue this evening and into the overnight
hours. Some patchy fog will be possible, especially near TRI.
Showers and thunderstorms across MO/IL will track southeastward
with the remnants of this convection expected to bring a chance of
thunderstorms to TYS and CHA by early Saturday morning around 12z.
Chances of thunder will only be around 10 to 20 percent at
terminals on Saturday afternoon, so only included a mention of
VCSH at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 86 69 91 / 30 50 20 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 85 66 88 / 30 40 20 40
Oak Ridge, TN 64 84 66 87 / 40 50 20 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 85 62 85 / 20 30 20 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....TD
AVIATION...JB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
401 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will continue across the Inland Northwest through
Saturday. Saturday will breezy with west to southwest wind gusts
of 25 to 30 mph. Dry weather returns on Sunday and Monday with
temperatures warming back into 70s and 80s. A return of cool, wet
weather is expected to return midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: The upcoming holiday weekend will start
off cool and unsettled with a transition to warmer and drier. The
cool and unsettled portion of the forecast comes courtesy of an
upper-level trough dropping into the region. The trough will come
in three pieces of energy. The first, generally southern branch is
currently crossing the Cascades this afternoon with light showers
filling in across Central WA and expected to slowly work eastward
this evening and overnight expanding across North Idaho and the
eastern third of WA. Precipitation amounts with this activity will
be light and around a tenth of an inch or less. Before this wave
arrives and clouds thicken, afternoon and early evening
instability will promote hit or miss showers and a few
thunderstorms. The latest RUC mesoanalysis is showing CAPES around
500 J/kg over portions of the North Idaho. We have yet to observe
any lightning but this will need to be monitored as we reach peak
heating. More organized bands of showers and thunderstorms are
forming over Northeastern Oregon this afternoon and will slowly
drift toward the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie. This activity
typically struggles to survive as it comes off the higher terrain
but these areas are receiving some of the best sun so would not
rule out a few cells surviving before sunset. Brief downpours,
lightning, and wind gusts up to 35 mph will be the main concern
with any cells.
The second, northern branch of the trough swings across Northern WA
and North Idaho on Saturday. The orientation of the midlevel jet
across the barrier results in pressure falls in the lee of the
Rockies across southern Alberta tightening the pressure gradient
across the Inland Northwest. There remains some differences with
the exact magnitude of the cross-CWA pressure gradient resulting
in a 10 mph difference in potential wind gusts for Saturday
afternoon and early evening. The European model and ensembles
remain on the windier side of the spectrum with the GFS and
ensemble members on the lower end. Each agree with windy
conditions but the difference in wind gusts varies from 30-35 mph
(EC) to 20-25 mph (GFS) for much of the Basin, West Plains, and
into the Palouse. Each agree on locally stronger winds coming
through the Cascade Gaps and on to the Waterville Plateau which
carries a 50% chance for wind gusts in excess of 30 mph. As for
precipitation, the main concentration of showers will be over the
northern mountains and into the Upper Columbia Basin. This will
correlate with the location of the coolest 500mb temperatures.
With ample sun breaks, CAPES could increase near 300-400 J/kg
bringing another threat for weak isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon and early evening. Brief downpours, lightning strikes,
and wind gusts to 30 mph will remain the main hazards with any
cells.
The third and final piece of energy within this mean trough will
come through Sunday morning keeping a mention of light showers
but overall trends will be for trough to begin shifting east with
500mb temperatures warming from west to east throughout the day.
Thinking any showers for the northern mountains will be early in
the day with clouds shrinking with time.
Temperatures over the weekend will warm into the upper 50s to 60s
Saturday then 60-70s on Sunday. Overnight lows will be warmest
tonight (40s) with the heavier cloud cover then cool into the
30s-40s for Saturday night and Sunday night. Patchy frost will be
a concern for our sheltered northern valleys around Republic,
Colville, and Priest Lake Saturday night into Sunday morning. /sb
Monday through Friday:
A ridge across the Inland Northwest will lead to warm and dry
conditions on Monday. Monday and Tuesday will likely see the warmest
temperatures of next week. These warm and dry conditions are not
anticipated to last long, however, as a cold front and associated
low pressure is anticipated to move into the region mid-week. This
will also lead to breezy westerly winds for Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. Daytime temperatures will likely drop back below
seasonal norms for the second have of the week. Daily precip chances
will favor NE WA and N ID, with little appreciable precip
anticipated across the Columbia Basin. /KD
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Upper level trough dropping into the region will result
in unsettled weather conditions into the evening with spotty
showers across the northern mountains and extreme SE WA and the
lower Idaho Panhandle. There is a 15-30% chance for t-storms
around the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie. For Lewiston proper,
percentages are increasing closer to 30%. Energy with the upper-
level disturbance will swing through overnight with a band of
showers but largely VFR skies. Added prob30 groups to account for
this activity. This will also come with a 20-40% chance for brief
MVFR ceilings with the highest probabilities along an axis from
Pullman,WA to Mullan, ID. Showers will continue to fill in across
North Idaho into the early morning hours. Winds will remain
elevated overnight at 10-15 mph. Winds will continue to increase
on Saturday with gusts 25-35 mph.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is moderate confidence (50% chance) for showers at times
across the Idaho Panhandle, Northeastern WA, and between the Blue
Mountains and Camas Prairie. Confidence is low for lightning
coverage as any storms come off the higher terrain of NE OR into
the lower Idaho Panhandle. A few models indicate a small potential
(10%) for a few lightning strikes overnight with the showers.
Confidence is low for MVFR conditions overnight given the
increasing winds. Feel best chances will be around St Maries,
Kellogg, and Mullan.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 46 61 40 64 44 73 / 30 30 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 45 59 39 61 44 72 / 60 50 10 0 0 0
Pullman 43 57 38 62 43 72 / 40 20 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 49 66 44 70 49 81 / 40 30 0 0 0 0
Colville 45 61 33 64 37 73 / 40 80 30 10 0 0
Sandpoint 45 57 39 59 42 69 / 60 80 40 10 0 0
Kellogg 44 55 41 57 45 71 / 70 80 30 10 0 0
Moses Lake 45 68 41 72 44 79 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 44 65 45 68 48 77 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 48 69 39 69 45 77 / 30 30 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
626 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
evening into the overnight. Stronger storms will also be
capable of heavy rain, which may cause localized flooding.
- Numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday-Sunday night. The
best chance of more widespread severe storms is Sunday
evening, when all severe weather modes are possible. Heavy
rain and localized flooding will also be a potential hazard.
- Drier conditions with closer to normal temperatures will be
the rule for much of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Scattered convection today-tonight will pack heavy rainfall
capable of causing some localized flooding, esp if they can
repeat over the same areas. There`s about 20-30 kts of steering
flow so most of the morning rain, while heavy, moved enough to
preclude broader scale issues, given hourly RR up to 1.5". The
severe risk is moreso tied to an incoming front into an
environment that may still have 2000+ J/KG of CAPE as it nears
closer to midnight, when bulk shear will have increased 5-10
kts from now. As a result, damaging wind/hail from stronger
cells cannot be ruled out. While later afternoon/early evening
convection looks more pulse oriented, the incoming front could
offer a more linear convective translation overnight. This will
include the potential for training echoes/heavy rain causing
localized flood issues.
After a relative pause Saturday, when the chance of storms is
not zero but the chance of severe is minimal...all eyes will
turn to Sunday. An approaching 80+ kt upper level jet will see
its left front entrance region nearing within a difluent height
pattern offering good updraft growth enhancement potential, as
700-500 mb modeled lapse rates have spiked upwards to 8C/KM,
quite robust. We see bulk shear nearly double to 40-50 kts from
now to the end of Sunday. As a result, all modes severe are
expected with the primary system approach and passage Sunday
evening-overnight. Earlier, we may get caught up in the warm
sector convective growth as the shear and instability parameters
grow, but latest modeling suggests this will be mainly to our
north, where ongoing activity from late morning on thru the
afternoon is possible. We cannot rule out this time frame for
strong or even severe storms, but the better dynamical inputs
come together with the primary system as aforementioned, from
late day into the overnight. Heavy rains capable of localized
flooding will also be possible Sunday-Sunday night.
While the low level features push the storms on thru Sunday
night, the upper trof lags with passage so showers/isolated pops
linger into Monday. After that, we look pretty dry and seasonal
for the remainder of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Showers and storms are moving eastward just north of the I-64
corridor early this evening. Additional storm development
southwest of St Louis has collapsed on approach to the Quad
State, leaving the cold front further west as the focus for late
evening development. Scattered showers and storms cross the
area by late night. MVFR cigs are likely along/behind the storms
with MVFR vsbys (brief IFR possible) with heavy rain. Breezy
winds out of the south will trend lighter but may gust with
storms. Following the cold front, winds shift to the northwest
and eventually north. Winds remain around 5 kts and variable
tomorrow with clearing skies.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...ATL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1018 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
We have extended the current SVR watch a couple of hours and added
our remaining deep east TX Counties with the update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Thunderstorms continue to move over S Arkansas and we have
extended the SVR Watch 303 for another couple of hours until
midnight. Also, we have added our remaining TX Counties as well
ahead of the big push currently. The KSHV radar is tracking a
large cell along I-20 in east TX and we are continuing see good
progressive motion, so flooding may still become an issue for the
rain trained areas briefly, but all of our rivers in the general
path are normal ahead of this push. More to come this evening and
hoping the HRRR is on track with dissipation around midnight.
/24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Troughing will remain in place across the central CONUS as we move
into the long-term portion of the forecast period. At the surface,
an area of low pressure will be centered over the mid-central
CONUS with a cold front extending south from central Kansas into
western Texas. A dryline will also be in place from central
Oklahoma into southwest Texas. This will lead to some thunderstorm
development across east Texas that will traverse through the rest
of our area on Sunday. Right now portions of northeast Texas,
southwest Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma are in a Slight Risk
for strong to severe storms on Sunday. Upper-level trough will
quickly push to the northeast Sunday night into Monday morning
with a decent cold front developing and extending from the Upper
Midwest to north central Texas. This front will eventually push
through the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning, ushering
in some "cooler" and drier air.
Monday should be the last day that we see Heat Index values reach
the 100 degree mark as the rest of the week will be well below
this mark. Monday will see temperatures climb ahead of the front
into the lower to upper 90s. On Tuesday, the "cooler" air will
begin to filter in behind the front and will be most noticeably
felt across our far northern zones with highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. Wednesday will be the "coolest" day of the period
with temperatures in the 80s across the region. No major chances
for precipitation to speak of right now in the long term period
however, that is always subject to change.
33
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
For the 25/00Z TAF period, convection will continue to affect our
NW terminals this evening, generally including KTYR/KGGG/KTXK and
possible KELD. This convection will result in reduced cigs/vsbys,
followed by widespread MVFR cigs overnight through late Saturday
morning. These cigs should improve to VFR closer to 25/18Z with a
cu field lifting throughout the afternoon. Additional convection
may develop very late in the period, but it may be delayed until
just after 26/00Z so have opted to forego any mention on Saturday
afternoon for now. Otherwise, S/SE winds will prevail at around
5-10 kts with higher gusts invof of convection.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 93 76 94 / 50 20 0 10
MLU 72 93 73 94 / 30 20 0 10
DEQ 66 87 70 90 / 60 10 10 10
TXK 70 91 74 92 / 60 20 0 10
ELD 68 90 71 92 / 50 30 0 10
TYR 72 92 75 93 / 100 0 0 0
GGG 72 92 74 92 / 90 10 0 10
LFK 74 94 74 94 / 20 10 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...19