Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/15/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1043 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
...New UPDATE...
.03Z UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
No major changes to the forecast for tonight other than removing
PoPs from the grids for the overnight hours, since precipitation
has diminished almost entirely across the CWA. Only a couple of
rogue showers are left, but with dewpoints ranging in the upper
30`s and lower 40`s, there is confidence that they will not have
the chance to pulse up. As a matter of fact, measurable
precipitation may not even be reaching the ground.
For tomorrow, new 00Z runs of the CAMs and other short term
models suggest that the lack of moisture retention may lead to a
decrease in our severe thunderstorm potential and perhaps even QPF
values if we struggle to receive good low level moisture at the
onset of the event. Very few 60`s dewpoints are being realized
with most values ranging between the 40`s and 50`s. Some CAMs like
the 00Z HRRR show storms forming with dewpoints in the upper
30`s. Guidance suggests that convective temperatures are still
expected to be met, but the true strength of the thunderstorms may
not be realized until the front completely passes through the
CWA. Until then, storms may struggle to grow upscale. MLCAPE
looks to range between 500-1500 J/kg, with the far east perhaps
still reaching 2,000 J/kg. 0-3 km Theta-E values still suggest
that enough midlevel moisture will be in place to sustain high
based storms. Despite the cold front moving through and switching
surface winds from the north(blowing south), thunderstorms should
still follow the mean flow from the 0-6 km bulk shear and storm
motion will be northeasterly. Most other parameters from the 00Z
models still share the sentiments outlined in the previous
discussion.
55
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Current satellite observations depict a mid to upper level low over
MO with a positively tilted ridge to the west over the leeside of
the Rockies. A couple of shortwaves/small areas of low pressure can
be seen over WY up into western MT and ID. Further down stream off
the coast of CA is a closed H5 low and shortwave trough that is
expected to impact the combined Panhandles tomorrow into Thu. The
areas of low pressure mentioned above over ID, MT, and WY are all
associated with a positively tilted parent trough that will
combined with the low off the coast of CA.
Tonight perturbations between the trough and ridge will move into CO
creating showers and thunderstorms over much of CO, with some of
this activity bleeding into the northern combined Panhandles
tonight. Based on forecast soundings any showers or storms that
develop will have high bases with a large inverted V sounding. DCAPE
values are progged to be 1200 and 1800 J/Kg. Overall confidence is
low in any one place measuring rainfall. However, there is moderate
confidence that high based storms could produce virga bombs leading
to a concern in severe wind gusts. If a storm can get going and gain
structure with potentially 1000 to 1200 J/kg, some large hail cannot
be ruled out entirely. Again overall confidence is low for getting a
healthy rain/hail producer at this time. Further south in the area,
depending on if some smaller perturbations come across the southern
TX Panhandle, isolated thunderstorms may form late this afternoon
and in evening over the south as well. Overall confidence in this
happening is low with only a 10 PoP mentioned in the forecast at
this time. A severe storm cannot be ruled out here. However, storms
are expected to be short live and unable to get very strong before
collapsing at this time.
As the areas of H5 low pressure over ID/MT/WY push south and merges
with the low coming off the southern coast of CA tomorrow, severe
thunderstorms are anticipated. PoPs will increase to around 40 by
the late afternoon evening and increase to 50-60 going into the
overnight hours. Not only will there be better upper level support
with the arrival of the upper level trough, but there will also be
an influx of better moisture. Surface high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico should help pump up some better low level moisture up through
southern and western Texas into the Panhandles. A cold front will
also be arriving with the upper level trough and help bring some
higher Tds in at the surface behind the front, especially across the
northern third to half of the FA. The big question is how soon will
this moisture arrive and how soon will the front come in from the
north. Ahead of the front some mid level moisture may be present for
high based storms to get going especially if convective temperatures
are reached even before the main upper level support comes in. Just
like today much of the southeastern half of the combined
Panhandles are expected to see daytime highs in the 80s before the
front or storms hamper the heating. Timing of the front is hard
to see in the models due to some convective feedback. However, it
appears to stall across the area by mid afternoon, dividing the
northern and southern combined Panhandles.
Tomorrow, some easterly winds may feed higher Tds into the
southeastern TX Panhandle enhancing the overall CAPE values.
Depending on which model one were to look at there is likely to be
1500-3000 J/Kg. Even areas behind the front could still have 1500 to
2000 J/Kg of CAPE, even surfaced based behind the front. Overall
bulk shear of 35 to 50 kts and lapse rates around 8 to 10 C/km will
likely contribute to golfball size hail, and a potential wind
threat. Surface to 1 km helicity and surface to 1 km bulk shear do
not support tors. Hodographs are pretty straight as well suggesting
left and right moving cells are possible. However, with a frontal
boundary in play, cannot completely rule out a landspout or a hybrid
of sorts especially if some outflow boundaries interact with the
front. Going later into the evening and overnight hours, some of the
forecast sounding become slightly more tropical in nature with large
hail becoming less of a threat and isolated flooding becoming more
of a concern with some efficient rain producing storms as available
moisture continues to increase overnight into tomorrow.
Thu morning a break in storms could potentially occur with
thunderstorms picking up in the late afternoon/evening again. This
time across the southern TX Panhandle and south. Models seem to keep
much of the storm activity along the cold front. But, this could
also just be where the best PVA occurs when the center of the H5 low
comes across late Thu into Thu night. The track of the H5 low will
most likely determine who gets storms Thu night. Severe storms
cannot be entirely ruled out for Thu especially in the southeastern
TX Panhandle.
Showers and thunderstorms should come to an end by sunrise Fri with
drier and warmer temperatures expected Fri through the rest of the
extended period. Expecting an H5 ridge to build going into the
weekend with temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Some
perturbations in the flow aloft could spark some showers and
thunderstorms across the OK Panhandle Sunday into Sun night.
However, with only the GFS suggesting this, have stuck with the NBM
PoPs that are less than 10 but not zero.
36
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
For the 00Z TAFs, a weak cold frontal boundary is expected to
slowly move through the area tonight and Wednesday with winds
becoming north behind this feature. There will be a chance for
showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday afternoon and beyond
this forecast cycle. However, confidence is very low as to whether
or not any of the terminal sites will be impacted Wednesday
afternoon so have omitted this weather element from the forecast
this far out in time.
02
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 57 86 53 74 / 10 40 60 50
Beaver OK 58 84 54 76 / 20 40 70 30
Boise City OK 52 78 49 70 / 30 60 50 40
Borger TX 59 88 56 78 / 10 50 60 50
Boys Ranch TX 56 88 54 76 / 10 40 50 50
Canyon TX 56 88 52 75 / 0 40 60 50
Clarendon TX 58 88 55 76 / 0 50 50 60
Dalhart TX 50 82 50 72 / 10 50 50 40
Guymon OK 54 81 51 75 / 10 50 50 30
Hereford TX 56 90 53 77 / 0 40 50 50
Lipscomb TX 57 87 56 76 / 10 50 70 40
Pampa TX 55 86 55 74 / 20 50 60 40
Shamrock TX 56 89 56 77 / 10 50 70 50
Wellington TX 59 91 57 78 / 0 40 70 60
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...02
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1031 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will wind down overnight tonight, but the
unsettled weather pattern will continue over the next few days.
Several rounds of showers are expected through the rest of the week,
with Friday having the best potential to remain mostly dry.
Temperatures will remain seasonable through the weekend as well,
with highs generally in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1030 PM EDT Tuesday...Forecast remains on track so only
made minor changes to bring it up to date. RAP mesoanalysis
shows a frontal boundary draped across southern Essex county in
NY into Addison county, and this is where a thunderstorm is
located. Despite the relatively slow forward motion, flooding is
not a concern as rainfall rates are quite manageable. Expect
thunder chances to wane after midnight, with rainfall tapering
into isolated showers. Patchy fog could also develop across
northern NY and northern/central VT with the recent rainfall
and dew point depressions generally less than 5 degrees.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms will continue through the rest of this afternoon
into the evening hours, especially from the Adirondacks eastward
into north- central/central VT. The main threat from this
activity will be briefly heavy rainfall. Given fairly
unidirectional flow and a slow moving frontal boundary just to
our north, training of cells will be a concern. Flooding is not
anticipated, but ponding of water in poor drainage areas will be
possible, especially in locations that see multiple
showers/storms. Otherwise, have already seen one or two more
robust thunderstorms this afternoon, with a couple of reports of
small hail. Strong winds will be possible in stronger storms,
as well. Strong storms will continue to be possible through 7 pm
or so, and while an isolated marginally severe thunderstorm
can`t be totally ruled out, the risk is low with widespread
severe not anticipated.
Showers and thunderstorms will wind down this evening as we lose
daytime heating and instability. The front will make a slow push
southward overnight, eventually hanging up somewhere over
northern/central portions of our forecast area. Moisture will linger
however, keeping plenty of clouds around. Some patchy fog or drizzle
will be possible as well. The moisture will also serve to keep
temperatures from cooling much overnight, and lows will be in the
50s areawide.
The front will lift back north on Wednesday, allowing showers to
once again develop, especially in the afternoon. Moist profiles and
poor lapse rates will limit instability, so not anticipating any
thunderstorms. With little in the way of sunshine, highs will be
cooler than today, especially in central/southern sections. Highs
will be in the mid 60s to around 70F. Like today, showers will wane
in the evening as we lose daytime heating. Lows will be similar to
tonight, perhaps a few degrees cooler.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 336 PM EDT Tuesday...On Thursday there will be pretty
pronounced upper level ridging that will stifle any showers that can
develop in weakly unstable environment. Overall the pattern should
support mainly dry weather between isolated, slow moving and light
showers. High temperatures should be a few to several degrees warmer
than on Wednesday with more low level dry air and lower cloud cover,
especially as one goes west. While winds will be light, there seems
to be some uncertainty as to the low level flow. The latest forecast
shows greater northerly flow down the Champlain Valley associated
with Canadian high pressure nosing southward, while a weak
southeasterly low level regime develops in eastern Vermont tied to
the closed low drifting over the western Atlantic. Overall, between
this low level flow and a ton of dry air aloft I don`t foresee any
significant shower activity despite the 30-50% PoPs during the day,
with greatest chances of rainfall generally in northern Vermont
shifting eastward with time. Any diurnally driven, light showers
should taper off quickly Thursday night with lack of any large scale
forcing and continued height rises. Would expect patchy fog could
develop overnight in the typical, localized valley locations with
light wind and probable clearing skies. Many areas should fully
decouple which will probably see lower temperatures than currently
indicated, but there is no threat of frost conditions with a
relatively mild air mass in place.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 336 PM EDT Tuesday...The large scale weather pattern doesn`t
look to change much through early next week with a tendency towards
troughing. The resulting unsettled weather will remain largely
unimpactful due to deeper moisture being shunted south of the area
by convergent upper level flow. One notable shift in the forecast
has been towards warmer conditions on Friday as brief ridging builds
in. Probabilities of temperature exceeding 80 are now in the 35-45%
range in a large swath of the Champlain Valley, and 20-35% in some
other valley locations such as along the I-89 and I-91 corridors. So
mid to upper 70s look to be rather common with spot 80 degree
values, which would make it the warmest day so far this spring for
many spots. The NWS HeatRisk product suggests the warmth could
affect those who have extreme sensitivity to heat, especially given
we`ve been mostly on the cool side recent. However, with some clouds
and moderate humidity, it doesn`t look noteworthy as indicated by
the WBGT values below the elevated threshold.
A very weak cold front approaching from the west brings us higher
chances of showers in northern New York by Friday night spreading
areawide through Saturday. With no significant moisture or wind
fields, would think no more than a brief downpour with this system.
Moving into Sunday there remains some uncertainty with regards to
the upper level pattern but still favoring a trough with some shower
chances and lack of substantial instability. Most global model
clusters favor height rises with a warmer day on Monday compared to
Sunday, although about half of the 12Z EPS members do show a closed
low to our northwest that point to a possible change in the forecast
moving forward for early next week. More of the same for Tuesday so
NBM temperatures near to a bit above normal both days look
reasonable at this time along with largely 15 to 30% PoPs.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms, one southwest of KEFK and one south of KSLK, are
progressing east across the region. Activity has been mainly
scattered, with only localized impacts. But reductions to 2SM to
5SM are possible for any terminal to take a direct hit as
scattered showers and storms continues through about 04z before
thunder is completely out of the picture. Tonight`s main
challenge is whether there will be drizzle or patchy fog along
the international border impacting KEFK, KMSS, and KPBG from
about 05z to 11z tied to a surface boundary. The picture isn`t
clear on which it will be and when so have stuck to a blend of
4SM and 1500-2500 ft agl ceilings. Winds light and variable
through about 12z. About 15z-16z, surface stationary front
strengthens and numerous showers will begin to develop with
ceilings falling to 1000-2500 ft agl and visibilities 3 to 6SM
in heavier showers. There could be some improvement late in the
day at KRUT and KMPV to VFR. Winds will become south to
southwest 4 to 8 knots, but remain northeast at KMSS. Shower
activity wanes after 22z.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Chai/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Haynes
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
622 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024
.UPDATE...
Short wave trough axis is pushing through our CWA at this time.
Leading edge of trough is signified by line of thunderstorms
extending from near Roundup to Pryors at this time. Pea size hail
has been reported within this line with gusts to around 30-35
mph.
Pops have been updated for rest of evening and overnight hours.
BT
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...
Radar showed isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some
with moderate rainfall over much of the area this afternoon.
Mesoanalysis depicted trough over the region with two main
vorticity maximums circulating through it. One vort max was over E
WY moving E into SD/NE and the other was elongated from W MT S
into SE ID. CAPE and shear were minimal, but low-level lapse rates
were steep. PWAT`s were .5-.8 inches. This activity will continue
through the evening, before diminishing from N to S later tonight.
Highest precip. chances (60-80%) will be from KBIL S and over and
near the mountains. Snow levels will be from 8000-9000 ft, so
high elevations could pick up several inches of snow, although
probability of accumulations over 2 inches was less than 10
percent through Wed. morning. HRRR suggested patchy fog over much
of the area so carried some fog through early Wednesday.
Slightly anticyclonic flow with energy in the flow will be over
the area on Wednesday. Soundings were inverted-v and CAPE/shear
were minimal. A warm front develops over the central zones late in
the day and moves into the E for Wed. night. Decent PWAT`s
continue through the period. Not much QPF expected Wed. and Wed.
night so went with 20-30% PoPs, mainly into Wed. evening. Temps
will be slightly above normal on Wednesday and RH will not be low.
Winds are not expected to be very strong either, except in
thunderstorms due to inverted-v soundings. Arthur
Thursday through Monday...
A zonal/NW flow upper level flow pattern will persist through much
of the week. General troughing over the mountain west will allow
for several shortwaves and upper lows to make their way through
the region during the extended forecast. Rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with cold fronts accompanying the
shortwaves, 15-50% chance of precip possible. Brief shortwave
ridging tries to build in Thursday-Friday, bringing warmer
temperatures before general troughing and NW flow returns through
the weekend.
Highs in the 70s to 80F Thursday and Friday, dropping back into
the 60s, up to 70F over the weekend and into Monday.
Matos
&&
.AVIATION...
Rain showers with embedded weak thunderstorms will continue
across portions of the area this evening before diminishing from
NW to SE late this evening into tonight. Localized MVFR/IFR
conditions are possible within the precipitation, along with gusty
winds and small hail where thunderstorms form. With this,
mountain obscurations will persist into tonight. Otherwise, patchy
fog may limit visibility later tonight behind the precipitation,
but overall confidence is too low to introduce into the TAFs.
Arends
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/070 051/077 051/077 045/065 042/067 044/066 046/065
62/W 23/W 34/T 44/W 23/W 24/T 34/T
LVM 042/069 046/076 048/073 040/062 038/065 039/063 041/061
31/B 13/W 23/T 43/W 24/T 24/T 35/T
HDN 046/070 047/077 047/080 044/065 041/070 043/068 044/068
82/W 23/W 44/T 54/W 23/W 24/W 34/T
MLS 046/069 049/074 049/077 045/063 042/068 044/067 044/066
32/W 23/T 43/W 44/W 22/W 23/W 23/W
4BQ 048/067 047/075 050/080 044/065 042/070 044/068 045/067
52/W 22/T 31/U 33/W 22/W 23/W 33/W
BHK 041/068 045/073 048/075 041/064 039/068 041/064 041/064
20/U 13/T 23/W 43/W 22/W 23/W 23/W
SHR 044/066 044/074 046/079 041/066 039/069 041/066 042/065
73/W 12/T 32/T 34/T 22/T 34/T 44/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1038 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight and again on
Wednesday. A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe both
days. Upper ridging will provide a brief break in the unsettled
conditions on Thursday. Shower and thunderstorms return late
this week and into the weekend. Temperatures are expected to
gradually rise through the next seven days.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
An upper level trough will work into the eastern US in the near
term. Drier air aloft will push into the area from the west,
however the low levels will remain warm and moist with a warm
front to our north. This will lead to weak, elevated instability
into the overnight. The RAP shows a weak shortwave rounding the
base of the trough and working into the forecast area this
evening. This will promote isolated to scattered showers and
possibly thunderstorms. CAMs have been consistent showing the
greatest shower activity moving from central GA into the CSRA
and Midlands after midnight. Showers may linger into the early
morning given how moisture rich the low-levels are across the
area. Low clouds should again develop tonight, holding temps
into the mid and upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday and Wednesday Night: Day should be starting off cloud
but dry. Stratus should lift and scatter some through the
morning into the afternoon, then as a shortwave energy
associated with the primary upper low/cold pool moves out of
the mountains during the afternoon, there should be enough
heating and instability to create some scattered showers and
thunderstorms over mainly the northern half of the cwa.
Instability may be enough as the cold pool aloft moves through
to help bring a few stronger storms during the afternoon hours.
SPC has the area in a marginal risk of severe weather on
Wednesday due to this. Main threat would be associated with
damaging winds, with a minor hail threat. Showers and storms
will linger into the early evening, then dissipate and/or move
east along with the main upper energy. Afternoon highs are
expected to reach back up into the low to mid 80s with the
expected return of some sunshine. Overnight lows dropping down
to the low to mid 60s.
Thursday and Thursday Night: A return to dry weather as a brief
period of upper ridging moves towards the region from the west.
Ahead of this ridge, less cloud cover is expected due to a
downslope flow pattern, bringing a good amount of sunshine
through the day. This will help afternoon temperatures continue
to edge slightly warmer than Wednesday into the mid to possibly
upper 80s. Upper ridge axis will begin moving east of the cwa
late Thursday night, and do expect to see an increase in cloud
cover towards Friday morning. Overnight lows in the low to mid
60s continue.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Friday will see the eventual approach of another upper low
moving out of the southern plains. This will be a slow moving
low that may take all weekend to finally move through the
region, although there is some uncertainty to the speed of the
low between the models. Friday should start off dry, then
increasing moisture will be a return of isolated to scattered
afternoon showers/storms. Rain chances continue and increase
through the weekend. A return of ridging will be possible early
next week, which would bring the possibility of drier weather
back to the area.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR for a period of time this evening with the redevelopment of
restrictions tonight into early Wednesday.
VFR conditions currently at the terminals with isolated -TSRA/-SHRA
moving through the area. Confidence regarding impacts at the
terminals remains too low for inclusion in the TAFs. SW winds 5
and 10 knots should diminish through the overnight hours. Models
consistently indicating CIG restrictions developing late
tonight into Wednesday morning, generally after about 15/05z.
Stratus is favored as a 10-20 knot low level jet looks to
develop and hang around most of the night precluding most VSBY
restrictions. MVFR CIGS should eventually mix out to VFR sometime
between 15/15z and 15/18z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions are possible again Friday and Saturday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1005 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- On and off showers through at least the next week.
- Thunderstorm chances increasing over the next few days. A low
probability scenario exists which would include a few strong
thunderstorms on Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
The activity that developed in central ND just west of our CWA
has greatly diminished as it moved in o the Devils Lake Basin
(just a few sprinkles/light showers). There is more activity
(including some lightning activity) farther southwest, but this
is not in line to move into our area and may face the same fate
as the activity farther north due to the more dry/subsident air
mass locally in our area. The more organized rain chances are
still on track to arrive by midway Wednesday. I made some
adjustments to delay higher PoPs (measurable chances) to the
north, holding higher chances in place to the southwest until
Wednesday morning. The decrease in instability near our west on
RAP analysis lowers confidence in any lightning activity into
our area.
UPDATE
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Activity on radar continue to be mainly associated with
sprinkles (non measurable rain) or virga, due to a dry 8-10 KFT
dry layer below this mid level CU deck. HRRR still shows a
signal for scattered showers/iso-T developing to the west this
evening near the surface trough axis/instabilty gradient and
spreading east towards the Devils Lake Basin before
weakening/falling apart. There are a few showers within a CU
field along that axis but no lightning activity. If it did occur
impacts would be limited to just lightning activity as much
more stable air is in place this evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
...Synopsis...
Water vapor imagery indicates zonal flow aloft with several upstream
shortwaves meandering toward the region. Ensemble guidance in good
agreement with the general zonal flow pattern, but differ with
timing, strength, and location of individual shortwaves. All in
all anticipate on and off showers through at least the next
week with possibly a stronger thunderstorm. Through the next
week, the 25-75 percentile range for rainfall amounts across the
majority of the forecast area is 0.50-1.50 inches.
...On and Off Showers...
Water vapor indicates immediate subsidence through the late
afternoon behind the departing wave, but many more waves
approaching. HRRR indicates a few storms initiating across
north central ND this afternoon moving into the Devils Lake
basin this evening. This scenario seems plausible given the
current plume of instabilty ahead of the surface
convergence/low pressure. Any storms that do develop would
quickly dissipate this evening as they depart from the
instability.
Next wave of concern is currently across Idaho, with another
lead wave across southwest South Dakota. Ensemble guidance in
good agreement indicating these features will slowly propagate
through the region on Wednesday, with rain chance increasing
especially Wednesday afternoon and into the evening.
Beyond Wednesday, timing and location of waves uncertain.
...Severe Storm Potential...
There is a stronger wave that will be approaching from the
northwest by Friday, and ensemble guidance shows many different
scenarios with how this system will develop across southern
Canada. Location of this feature by Friday into Saturday will be
important, as stronger and further west would lead to increased
moisture return along with warmer temperatures and greater
instability, with the potential for strong to severe storms. In
fact, the CU machine learning indicates a low chance for severe
storms Friday and Saturday. Of course, a weaker and further east
system would not allow for moisture return or warmer
temperatures thus limiting instabilty. At this point each
scenario has an equal chance of happening.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
VFR conditions should prevail through the evening and early
morning hours across eastern ND and northwest MN, with virga and
a few sprinkles (minimum coverage/impacts). There is a signal
for actual showers or maybe a thunderstorm late this evening in
the vicinity of KDVL (thunder chances much lower than shower
chances). Better rain chances overspread most TAF sites in
eastern ND and northwest MN Wednesday southwest to northeast,
along with decreasing ceilings to MVFR (some IFR near KDVL).
Winds will tend to remain east or southeast until low pressure
pushes into northeast ND late Wednesday afternoon (north-
northwest winds arrive at DVL on back side of surface low).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
626 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms developing over the High Plains this afternoon
will move east across the forecast area by late this
afternoon/this evening. Some storms this evening may be strong
to severe, mainly west of Highway 281. Large hail/damaging
winds would be the main threats.
- Wednesday brings another chance of strong to severe
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, mainly from
the tri- cities area and areas east. Large hail and damaging
winds will again be the main threats.
- After a potentially dry Thursday and Friday, periods of
showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Saturday
evening through Monday evening.
- High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s, and lows will be
in the 40s and 50s, through the forecast period
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
The upper pattern shows a zonal pattern with embedded shortwaves
over the forecast area sitting between a departing ridge over
Iowa/far eastern NE and a trough over the Rockies. Meanwhile, a
surface trough approaches the central Plains from the west.
This evening...
Temperatures across the area are in the 70s with dewpoints in
the 40s and 50s this afternoon. Currently expect thunderstorms
to develop across portions of central Nebraska along the frontal
boundary. Instability is fairly limited but still enough to
support stronger updrafts, and steep low and mid-level lapse
rates (~8.5 degrees C/km), DCAPE over 1000 J/kg, and a somewhat
inverted-V model sounding all support the presence of strong to
severe wind gusts with these storms. Modest 0-3 km helicity and
deep layer shear supports marginally severe hail as well. These
thunderstorms will push east into western portions of the
forecast area this evening. Some of these storms may be severe,
with the most likely timeframe for severe weather between around
6PM and 11PM, mainly west of Highway 281 as in the Day 1
Marginal Risk outlook from SPC (but that may be a generous
eastward extent of severe weather). Showers/storms will continue
to track east across the area, but will have difficulty
maintaining the severe threat late tonight/overnight.
Wednesday...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday, mainly
scattered showers during the overnight hours. The HRRR and RAP
models indicate a return of thunderstorms potentially as early
as 9 to 10 AM Wednesday, but think morning activity should
remain sub-severe. A return to a chance of severe thunderstorms
comes Wednesday afternoon and evening, and the eastern two-
thirds of the area has been outlooked by SPC under a Marginal
Risk for severe weather. This looks to be a better setup as far
as model guidance is concerned with grater instability and
higher dewpoint values forecast. While damaging winds will be a
threat, large hail may be the bigger threat Wednesday
afternoon/evening if storms really get going. There is still a
lot of uncertainty with the details of this, and if there is
enough activity and cloud cover in the morning, severe weather
may not develop at all in the afternoon/evening. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid-70s.
Thursday and Friday...
Showers/storms will move out of the forecast area Thursday
morning, and dry weather is expected most of Thursday through
Saturday morning. Highs Thursday will be in the 70s, warming
into the 80s Friday.
This weekend through early next week...
Saturday will probably be the warmest day of the forecast period
with high temperatures expected to be in the mid- to upper 80s,
and locations across north central Kansas may approach 90
degrees. Another trough swinging across the northern and central
Plains will bring the next decent chance of showers and storms
Saturday evening and Sunday, with a series of troughs
potentially keeping the area active early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Winds will mostly be out of the southeast to south then switch
to the northwest for EAR tomorrow morning or early afternoon.
MVFR ceilings are expected beginning around 09z for EAR and
around 11z for GRI. VFR conditions are expected to return around
15z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Schuldt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
732 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon. The main hazards will be strong wind gusts and hail
up to one inch. Blowing dust may also be possible with any
strong thunderstorm winds. An isolated landspout cannot be
entirely ruled out.
- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Wednesday through early Thursday morning.
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday, Saturday,
Sunday, and Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024
Made some adjustments to pops for the current coverage of
rw/trw over the area. Currently, the line of convection in the
east continues a slow push east and will affect areas along and
east of Highway 83 through the next couple hours. These storms
in this line are staying non-severe at this time, with locally
heavy rainfall and small hail with gusts into the 35-50 mph
range at times.
The remaining portions of the CWA are seeing scattered
convection/showers with nothing too organized at this time along
the surface trough over the area. Latest cams, HRRR and RAP,
continue to show bulk of precip over by 06z Wednesday with some
scattered showers thereafter, but overall north of the CWA by
06z. The NamNest is a bit more aggressive by not lifting
activity until the 06z-09z timeframe.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024
For the rest of this afternoon, expect temperatures to climb into
the 80s in most locations. A boundary has set up, extending from
Trenton, Nebraska to Goodland, Kansas to Kit Carson, Colorado. This
can be seen on visible satellite and faintly on radar. A couple of
storms have developed near the boundary in eastern Colorado. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected over the next several hours, moving
west to east. Models are showing the potential for two rounds of
thunderstorm activity. The first round will move through the area
this afternoon and could produce some strong to severe
thunderstorms. The main concerns will be hail and wind; however, a
landspout may also be possible near the boundary. The second
potential wave of storms will move through late this evening into
early tomorrow morning.
Wednesday, an upper trough moves into the region. Cooler
temperatures are expected, with highs in the low to mid-70s.
Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will be possible. There is
a chance that a few areas could get some decent precipitation out of
them.
Thursday, a few lingering chances for rain will be possible in the
morning. There may be a few isolated showers or storms in the
afternoon, mainly for areas south of the interstate. Temperatures
will be slightly warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Friday, a pattern change will bring dry weather to the region.
Westerly flow will set up over the region as a broad upper trough
moves in from the PACNW to the Dakotas. High temperatures are
currently expected to be in the 80s for most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024
A dry and warm start to the extended period is forecast as the area
looks to be between two systems. Warm area looks to be in place
across the SW CONUS and then spread northward through the High
Plains. High temperatures in the 80s are currently forecast.
Dew points are currently forecast in the 30s to 40s which should
help keep heat indices below the actual air temperature
therefore mitigating any potential heat risk concerns. However
due to this being one of the more warmer couple day stretches we
have seen so far this year, some may not be quite acclimated to
the warmth. I do have some concerns for how warm it actually be
as moisture will remain in place. GFS also has a surface high
in place with with NNE winds which may advect in cooler air from
that area; the climatological days that usually give us the
warmest air are when southerly or southwesterly winds are
present.
The latter portion of the extended looks to become more active as a
trough sets up across the SW CONUS emanating multiple waves of
energy across the Plains. Moisture currently does look to be in
place for showers and storms, perhaps severe. Currently the more
favored day for severe weather looks to be Monday as a surface
low develops across SW Kansas. GFS forecast soundings indicate
2500 j/kg of MUCAPE and 0-6 shear in excess of 40 knots. PWATS
will also be on the increase Sunday night on through the new
week so will need to keep an eye on excessive rainfall potential
as well. The potential active pattern does look to continue for
the majority of the week as SW troughing remains in place.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 358 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024
For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period. VCTS and even some light showers are possible from
00z-09z Wednesday. Winds, will meander from the southwest
initially around 10kts, going southeast around 02z then
light/variable by 09z. By 14z, north 10-15kts. Variable gusts
up to 25kts are possible due to thunderstorms from 00z-02z.
For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period. VCTS and even some light showers are possible from
00z-14z Wednesday. Winds, will meander from the southeast
initially around 10kts, going west around 05z then
light/variable by 09z. By 14z, north 10kts. Variable gusts
up to 25kts are possible due to thunderstorms from 00z-03z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
635 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated severe storms are possible late this afternoon and
this evening, mainly affecting northern Nebraska. The hazards
are severe wind gusts, large hail and the potential for
landspouts or an isolated tornado.
- The next chance for severe weather arrives Sunday and lasts
through Tuesday. It is important to note the area of concern for
severe weather appears to be mostly south and east of wrn and
ncntl Nebraska. Changes in the forecast location of the severe
weather are likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
A fairly vigorous and compact upper level low circulating across ern
WY/wrn SD this afternoon will move east through SD tonight. This
storm system produced about 20 or so severe wind reports across ID
Monday but is poised to produce less severe weather across wrn and
ncntl Nebraska late this afternoon and this evening.
The severe weather concerns according to the RAP and HRRR are wind
gusts, large hail and the potential for landspouts and an isolated
tornado. The focus for severe weather this afternoon revolves around
a developing triple point across the Sandhills but the latest HRRR
and RAP model solutions suggest this feature is less pronounced. The
reason for this is that the Pacific front behind the dry surge is
rapidly overtaking this surge of dry air. Still, a triple pt should
develop near highway 83 by 00z. Isolated severe storm development is
possible along or just north of this area.
Another strong or severe storm could develop post-frontal across
nwrn Nebraska this afternoon posing a severe wind threat and perhaps
a marginal severe hail threat. A third area for isolated strong
storm development is possible in the deeply mixed super-heated air
across swrn Nebraska.
The storm activity across the north will move east through ncntl
Nebraska this evening while the activity south moves toward KS. The
latest HRRR/RAP model runs are showing potential for upscale growth
in both areas and the HRRR indicates the upscale growth across ncntl
Nebraska could lead to strong/severe wind gusts later this evening.
Winds aloft at h500mb will be strong near 40kts for this event and
the MLCAPE around 1500 J/KG in spots suggests isolated supercell
potential. Across much of the region it appears the strong shear
relative to the modest instability will limit severe storm coverage
to isolated. The BRN is less than 25 across much of ncntl Nebraska
this evening, according to the models.
Satellite shows a second upper low across ern ID/wrn WY this
afternoon; very close to the lead disturbance. It is extremely
unusual for two storm systems to be located so close together. The
result will likely be a second round of elevated, mainly diurnally
forced, post-frontal showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.
POPs tonight and Wednesday lean on the short term model blend plus
the HRRR and RAP models. A limiter caps rain chances at 60 percent
tonight and this might be generous given the spartan storm
coverage suggested by the HRRR and RAP models. Scattered POPs are in
place Wednesday. The loss of diurnal heating Wednesday night should
present a dry forecast from late Wednesday evening onward.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
A dry forecast is in place Thursday through Saturday.
The next substantial rain chance is Sunday and Monday and the
GFS, the faster model, has been advertising this for several model
runs. The ECM and GEM have sped up matching the timing of the GFS. A
long wave trof should build into the the wrn U.S. this weekend
drawing a belt of strong subtropical winds north toward Nebraska.
Winds aloft will become very strong, 50-70kts at h300mb, and this
belt of strong winds will be mostly focused south and east of
wrn/ncntl Nebraska.
Likely POPs are in place across wrn/ncntl Nebraska Sunday and Monday
for disturbances rotating northeast through the trof. Chance POPs
are in place Tuesday. The better chances for severe weather appear
to be south and east and this is based on the location of a sfc low
the models show across wrn KS. If the low forms further north or
west, wrn/ncntl Nebraska would be favored.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Scattered thunderstorms will continue across northern Nebraska
through ~03Z, impacting KVTN. This activity will exit towards
the north and east with broken to overcast MVFR ceilings left in
it`s wake across northern Nebraska overnight. A brief period of
IFR ceilings will be possible Thursday morning into early
afternoon for KVTN. For KLBF, ceilings are expected to remain
low-end VFR through the period. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase Thursday mid-morning for both terminals, however,
confidence remains far too low in regards to specific timing and
impacts. Future amendments and inclusions are likely with
subsequent forecasts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Viken
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
922 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Active pattern with many chances of showers and storms through
Wednesday.
* A strong storm or two may be possible this afternoon and
evening. The best chances for a severe storm or two will be
south of I-64 and west of I-65.
* The most likely period for dry weather is Wednesday night
through Thursday afternoon.
* Another storm system will increase rain/storm chances for the
end of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Scattered showers and storms have remained mostly west of I-65 so
far this evening, but the cluster over south-central Kentucky is now
moving closer the the Lake Cumberland area. A few storms this
evening have had some broad rotation aloft, but besides that it has
been a hydro-focus with minor flooding issues. With the upper low
located over central IL this evening, the associated sfc low is
centered over the Wabash Valley, keeping additional shower and storm
activity going across mainly western KY and southwestern IN.
However, the severe threat is quickly diminishing with instability
waning and hardly any wind shear to speak of. Leftover storms are
mainly unorganized this evening.
Overall forecast remains in good shape, and no changes are planned
at this time. Best precip chances will shift to our east-northeast
sections for the forecast area overnight, leaving the south-central
KY counties dry for most of the night. Additional showers and storms
will swing down into the area again tomorrow as the low pressure
system sits nearby.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
As of 3 PM EDT, RAP 500 MB analysis and water vapor imagery showed a
positively tilted trough of low pressure moving through Missouri
into western Kentucky with pelnty of moisture ahead of the system
throughout the central portions of KY and south-central Indiana.
Radar observation showed several areas of scattered showers with
embedded thunderstorms across the region with moderate rainfall at
times. Overcast skies with temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s
were present across the forecast area.
The latest high resolution model guidance has scattered showers and
thunderstorms continuing this afternoon and evening for much of the
area (with a few short breaks inbetween). Model soundings this
afternoon/evening have the "long skinny CAPE" look with SBCAPE
around 1200+J/KG, but effective layer CAPE values sub 1000 J/KG
leaves something to be desired for widespread strong thunderstorms.
While the area is outlooked for a marginal (level 1 of 5) chance for
a severe thunderstorm with a small tornado probability, the
widespread overcast skies, lack of wind shear aloft, and showers
already in progress will likely limit widespread severe potential.
While we cannot rule out a strong storm or two west of I-65 & south
of I-64 in areas where there`s more clearing and instability, much
of today will be a rainy and dreary day with a small chance of minor
flooding in poor drainage and low lying areas.
Precipitation amounts will vary from one location to the next due to
the convective nature of the rainfall, but half an inch to an inch
is a good ballpark number for southern Indiana and central Kentucky
through Wednesday. Lows tonight will be around 60 with afternoon
high temperatures in the lower 70s again Wednesday with mostly
cloudy skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Wednesday night into Thursday morning will feature the sfc low and
associated upper trough located off the Mid-Atlantic coast as upper
ridging and a weak area of sfc high pressure build in over the Ohio
Valley behind it. This will provide a brief period of dry weather
late Wednesday morning through most of the day on Thursday. While
not completely clear, there will be enough solar energy to warm
temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s.
Our break from the active wet weather will be short lived starting
Thursday night into the start of the week. Overall confidence drop
for the end of the week and into the weekend as deterministic start
to diverge on the overall solution. While the GFS continues to show
a similar system that worked across the Ohio Valley Tuesday and
Wednesday with a stacked system working across the region, the EURO
is much weaker with just an upper-trough working in across the Ohio
Valley for Friday into the weekend. Depending on the solution, one
could feature a very wet solution (GFS) while the EURO is slightly
drier with lower overall rain chances for the weekend. Models do
agree on the development a mid-level trough over the central US and
an increase of low-level moisture out ahead of this across the Ohio
Valley. Could see shower and storm development ahead of this system
by Thursday night and continuing into the day Friday. PWAT values
increase ahead of the approaching system to over 1.50" by Friday
afternoon increasing the potential for locally heavy rainfall within
any convection that develops. While shear remains low, there should
be enough instability for a few embedded rumbles of thunder. The
main impact will be the heavy rain and potential for some very
localized minor flooding.
As mentioned above, confidence remains low for the weekend, while
the GFS shows a similar scenario similar to Wednesday with a slow
moving system with periods of rain and drizzle the EURO shows just
some scattered showers and thunderstorms. The models do agree on a
drier solution for Sunday as the main feature should be to our east.
Temperatures will also be impacted by which solution ends up
verifying, if we get the wetter/dreary GFS then highs Saturday will
be mainly in the 70s with highs in the 80s on Sunday while the drier
EURO would likely have temperatures closer to 80s and in the 80s for
the weekend.
Upper ridging looks to increase over the eastern US and Great Lakes
by early next week. This will help to warm temperatures up into the
mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 743 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Challenging TAF forecast ahead with multiple rounds of shower and
storm chances, lower ceilings, and perhaps some patchy fog that
could lower vis. Scattered showers and storms across the area this
evening will continue for a few hours after sunset, but should
eventually lose strength the closer we get to midnight. Flight
categories drop to MVFR or even IFR overnight with low stratus and
possibly some patchy fog. The low stratus seems to have the bigger
impact, so have hit that fairly hard in the TAFs. By tomorrow
morning, another wave of precip will be making its way into the
region. However, we should see some slight improvements to ceilings
after sunrise. Some scattered storms will once again be possible in
the afternoon hours, but have kept mention at VC due to the
difficulty of timing out scattered storms.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...MCK
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...CJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
848 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will cross the Mid Atlantic through
Wednesday, and bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to our
area. Weak high pressure should allow drier weather conditions
to be seen Thursday, but another low pressure system is expected
to bring more rain to the region for the end of this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 848 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A large area of rain continues to shift northeastward across the
region this evening, as a shortwave trough swings through the
area. Additional showers will likely be seen overnight, as
additional energy (ahead of the main upper low spinning across
the Mid- Mississippi Valley) passes through the region and
interacts with a moist airmass draped over the forecast area.
The ongoing forecast grids seem to have a decent handle on the
timing and possibility of any precipitation overnight.
The big weather story overnight will likely be the development
of fog overnight. Some of the fog could be locally dense, thanks
to the rainfall seen for much of the day. I`ll continue to
monitor observational trends for now, but I wouldn`t be
surprised if I didn`t issue a Special Weather Statement to
increase the visibility/messaging for locally dense fog before
the end of my shift.
Otherwise, the forecast appears to be on track for the time
being.
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1) Rain showers to continue through the evening and overnight
hours.
2) Areas of dense fog tonight.
3) Widely scattered thunderstorms tomorrow.
Widely scattered showers are ongoing this afternoon as an upper
wave pivots northeast ahead of a the main upper low centered
over southern Missouri. Rain is expected to increase in coverage
and possibly in intensity through the evening hours. The main
axis of rainfall looks to fall along the Foothills and east into
the Piedmont. Rain will taper off tonight and become more
isolated. Precipitable Water values continue to increase with
southerly flow. RAP analysis indicated 1.4" to 1.6" has made it
into the region, therefore some heavy downpours will be
possible. Fortunately, not expecting prolonged training or
convection so any flooding threat is low.
With plenty of moisture, expecting fog to develop overnight and
could be dense in some areas. Lows tonight remain mild in the
upper 50s to low 60s.
Upper low, expected to become an open wave as it moves east
tomorrow. Will cross during peak heating, but some uncertainty
lies on how much cloud cover will persist, which in turn will
limit heating/destabilization. Deep moisture is in place, but
shear is limited, therefore not expecting organized convection.
Most likely area to see breaks in the clouds will be across the
mountains and this would coincide with where the best coverage
of storms appears to occur, based off 12z CAM guidance. Owing to
weak shear, multicellular/merging pulse storms seem to be the
most likely storm mode tomorrow. Capable of a few instances of
damaging wind and perhaps some hail.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key message:
- Moderate to high confidence of more rainfall Friday and Friday
night
Wednesday night and Thursday the upper trough and surface low move
east off the Mid Atlantic and Carolina coast, bringing low
level and surface wind around to the northwest then north. This
will limit the probability of precipitation to the mountains.
Some clearing is expected in the piedmont Thursday afternoon.
Surface high pressure will cover the area overnight Thursday
and Friday morning. This break in widespread rain will be brief.
Another low pressure system will approach from the central
United States. Showers and thunderstorms reach the central and
southern Appalachians by Friday afternoon and the piedmont
before Friday night.
Models showed good consensus with the synoptic pattern in this time
frame. Despite the low and cold front crossing the area on
Wednesday night, there will be little noticeable change in the
overall airmass. Lows through the Friday night will be mild,
generally 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Highs on Thursday and Friday
will be near to slightly above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key messages:
- Moderate confidence that wet weather will continue Saturday
- Monday and Tuesday may be dry, confidence lower.
The bulk of this next system comes through the region on
Saturday. A cold front will provide enhanced lift. Behind this
low, mean flow turns to the northwest, confining precipitation
to the mountains. Best chance of showers and thunderstorms will
be on Sunday with daytime heating. Pattern will follow a more
diurnal cycle with less rainfall overnight. Monday and Tuesday
will have the most likely chance to be dry during the day. Still
no significant chance in airmass or high and low temperatures
through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 848 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
The bottom line -- expect poor flying conditions to continue
through 15/2400 UTC. Low CIGs, and likely low VSBYs, will lead
to the development of widespread IFR/LIFR flight categories
overnight across area terminals. Additional energy rotating
through the region will result in some SCTD -SHRA being seen
overnight, with areas of BR/FG expected. Some improvement -
likely only to MVFR - is anticipated after 15/1300 UTC as the
BR/FG dissipates and CIGs improve. However, additional SHRA, and
possibly some TSRA, should develop after 15/1800 UTC. My
confidence (or lack thereof) in the timing and location of any
TS precluded any mention in the 15/0000 UTC TAF package.
OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: Flight restrictions expected to continue due to
lower CIGs/VSBYs in SCTD SHRA/TSRA. Some improvement is possible
late.
Thursday: VFR flight categories expected.
Friday: Deteriorating conditions. Flight restrictions possible
by afternoon due to low CIGs with an increasing coverage of
SHRA/TSRA.
Friday night and Saturday: Flight restrictions expected due to
low CIGs/VSBYs in SHRA/TSRA.
Sunday: Some restrictions possible, especially early, with a
decreasing coverage of SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMG/DB
NEAR TERM...BMG/DB
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
655 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers to continue through the evening, bringing
very localized and short-lived pockets of heavy rain and
reduced visibilities.
- Potential for dense fog again Wednesday morning, especially
west of Highway 65 and within the insulated pockets of the
eastern Ozarks near lakes and in valleys.
- Additional shower and thunderstorms are expected at times from
late Wednesday evening into Friday. A few strong to marginally
severe storms may be possible, along with locally heavy
rainfall and a minor localized flooding risk.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Current conditions and synoptic overview:
Isolated showers are persisting through the morning hours in parts
of southwest Missouri on the backside of a cold front that passed
through overnight. These showers are causing a short-lived, rapid
deterioration in local conditions as they pass. Aloft, a trough with
vertically stacked closed lows sits right over Missouri, indicating
occlusion. With the warm, moist airmass being undercut by the cold
front overnight, temperatures dropped without an equal drop in
moisture content, bringing widespread fog to the early morning
hours. Pockets of the most dense fog persisted until late morning,
though scattered clouds are in place with some pockets of drizzle
and light rain underneath.
If you don`t care about the science:
Isolated, short-lived showers/heavy rain and/or drizzle-y conditions
through the rest of the afternoon, with cloud cover expected to
become a little less suffocating with the sun peeking out more and
more. High temps around 70 degrees Tuesday, lows in the mid- to
upper 50s Tuesday night, temperatures rising Wednesday to highs near
80. Expect dense fog on Wednesday morning, especially the further
west you get. Some showers Wednesday also aren`t completely out of
the question, depending on what models you feel like taking at face
value.
If you care about the science:
Scattered pockets of post-frontal drizzle, showers, and even short-
lived heavy rain will persist through the afternoon hours. High low-
level relative humidities paired with CVA bubbles aloft instigating
rising motion is the support for this convection, but the isolated
nature of the CVA from the closed lows is causing the updrafts to
remain very discrete. The updrafts are well represented in early
afternoon satellite imagery, with small areas of cloud top
temperatures between -15 and -25C indicating that the strongest
updrafts with the heaviest precip underneath really are localized,
making the discernment of the PoPs a not-very-fun game of Whack-A-
Storm. The strongest of these low-topped storms are producing around
1.25"/hr rates per the SGF radar as well as MRMS, but with residence
times of 15-20 minutes over a single area, accumulations are around
a half an inch at best. There`s not any lightning with these storms
due to lack of sufficient depth of ascent, so severe weather seems
incredibly unlikely today as a result. Satellite has also shown
the cumulo-form (?) cloud field to be patchy and disconnected,
and even here at Springfield the sun has been coming and going.
Tonight, dew points remain high near the surface as winds calm with
the eastward progression of the low and associated pressure gradient
reduction. Crossover temperatures around 57-58 with lows getting to
56 and lower means in the pockets around lakes in the eastern Ozarks
and in the western portion of the area, dense fog will develop in
the 2-3am timeframe and likely persist through the morning commute
on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, an upper-level ridge axis passes across the region,
and with some help from jet-level divergence, some showers could
reach east enough to impact the Ozarks, though global models and
ensembles don`t seem to be as big of fans of that as say, the RAP or
NAM. Leaving PoPs low for Wednesday due to lack of output from the
most recent HREF LPMMs.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
As the next disturbance moves in from the High Plains late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning, the development of a low-level
ridge over the Gulf Coast will send a moisture surge with the LLJ
through central Texas and into NE Oklahoma. Dew point depressions of
5 or below are being hinted at by CAMs getting into range, with
MUCAPE within that corridor being sustained overnight, feeding into
convection with a messy mode moving Thursday morning. LREF shows
around a 50% chance of PWAT in excess of 1.4", and with strong deep
layer ascent and model soundings indicating humped hodographs and
sufficient mid-level instability, an MCS Thursday morning seems
increasingly likely. Depending on the development and evolution of
this complex through the day Thursday, any remnant outflow
boundaries or mesoscale interactions could introduce the potential
for severe storms in the afternoon prior to development of
convection along the cold front in the evening. Hail the size of
quarters and wind gusts to 60mph appear to be the primary hazards
due to expected storm modes and the elevated nature of the
instability at initiation in the morning, but deep layer shear could
introduce a tornado potential in the afternoon and evening if the
instability is able to get rooted near the surface on a boundary or
the like.
The higher confidence hazard for Thursday appears to be heavy rain
and flooding, with an MCS being most well known for its flood-
causing tendencies. Already saturated soils from all the recent
rainfall will need to be able to take at least another inch of rain
over the course of a day. Rain looks to be fairly consistent over
the area (though breaks are possible in between waves) Thursday and
Friday as the upper-level trough makes its way through.
Temperatures through the end of the week will remain in the mid- to
upper 70s and are trending towards warming into the weekend, with
cloud cover reducing in the wake of the Thursday/Friday system to
bring a May-like sunny and warm weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Rain starts to clear out this evening with partly cloudy skies
and VFR ceilings persisting for the rest of the evening.
Tonight, IFR/LIFR conditions are possible as dense fog is
expected to form overnight. Visibilities will be 1 SM or less at
times after midnight. Fog dissipates by late morning and VFR
ceilings return.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Record High Temperatures:
May 20:
KUNO: 89/1964
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Soria
CLIMATE...Camden
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
938 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
...New UPDATE, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
The main change to tonight`s forecast was to update rain chances
based on current trends. Convection struggled all day to redevelop
thanks to a persistent outflow channel of cirrus clouds fanning
out from a decaying Gulf MCS. As such, PoPs were trimmed down this
evening to chance/slight chance with the best potential across
the Forgotten Coast into the FL Big Bend. After midnight, the
convective potential increases in response to an approaching front
from the west. The latest HRRR favors initiation around 6Z over
Apalachee Bay in a SW-NE oriented cluster or band that extends
into the Suwannee Valley. Pockets of heavy rain, gusty winds, and
lightning are likely to accompany this activity.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Through this evening an upper level overcast cloud deck is moving
north across the region from an MCS to our south in the Gulf. This
cloud deck is looking to limit the development of any storms later
as direct diurnal heating is cut off. A developing Cu field to the
west, which in the models evolves into showers and possibly some
storms later, looks to be dissipating as the overhead overcast
reduces instability. It`s possible the models are overdoing the
convection or under-doing the cloud cover. However, with dew points
back into the upper 60s and low 70s, there remains a possibility for
some showers in any area that maintains a break in the clouds. A
thunderstorm or two could be possible as well. There is low
confidence in widespread coverage this afternoon and evening.
Once we get into tomorrow morning some redevelopment could be
possible along the cold front, primarily across the FL Big Bend and
southern Georgia as forcing for ascent is provided by the front. The
front is expected to clear our region by noon with mostly clear
skies expected tomorrow afternoon.
Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 80s to low 90s with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A needed break from severe weather is forecast through the
middle/later part of the upcoming week as the local area will be
under an approaching upper level ridge into Thursday night. At the
surface, west to northwest flow will prevail and temperatures
warm up for Thursday afternoon as high temperatures climb into the
upper 80s and low 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Strengthening southwesterly flow moves into the region beginning
Friday and into upcoming weekend as moist southerly flow brings a
return to instability across across the region. Timing of any
specific severe weather threat still remains uncertain and much of
that has to do with the weak impulses that will be embedded in
the southwesterly flow driving the severe threat. The first
shortwave approaches southern AL/MS by daybreak Friday and while
much of the severe threat with this is likely to stay off to the
west and northwest as it lifts north of the forecast area, we`ll
need to monitor how the mesoscale details evolve later into the
week. Instability will be hard to come by in the morning hours of
Friday, but that could change through the day with afternoon
heating and additional moisture advection from the Gulf. For now
severe weather is generally not expected but upstream MCS
potential will need to be monitored as we approach Friday.
After Friday the trough continues east with widespread showers and
thunderstorms likely as several disturbances move through Friday
night into Saturday. The evolution of these showers/storms, and
if any storms can attain greater organization, is rather
uncertain but with modest instability and 40 to 50 knots of deep-
layer shear, some storm organization is possible which could bring
more severe weather to the region. Continue to monitor conditions
through the week.
Northwesterly upper level flow sets up for Sunday and into early
next week, likely allowing things to dry out.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A few showers are passing near KECP and KDHN this evening, so kept
VCSH in the TAFs for a few hours for them. Otherwise, generally
VFR conditions are expected elsewhere with light to moderate winds
out of the south to southwest much of the evening. There is a
chance most, if not all, TAF sites could experience MVFR
conditions later tonight into early Wednesday morning as a weak
front moves through the area. This front will be the focal point
for more showers and thunderstorms after 09Z tonight; most
guidance has this activity remaining south and east of our TAF
sites, however, it`s close enough to KTLH and KVLD to include some
VCTS in their TAFs for early Wednesday morning. Any showers and
storms that do develop should push southeast of the region. VFR
conditions are then expected during the day Wednesday with light
to moderate westerly winds that could be a little gusty at times
in the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 921 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
The West Tampa Buoy (42036) was reporting a nearly 20-kt sustained
SSW wind earlier this evening with 4-ft seas and a dominant period
of 5 sec. Meanwhile, the Cedar Key Station CYF1 has been reporting
SSW winds around 20 kts with a recent gust of 26 kts. Overnight
forecast hourly winds were increased over the waters to account
for these observations that seem to be in response to a decaying
storm complex passing just due south of Apalachee Bay. Such
changes are also better in line with the existing Small Craft
Advisory that is in effect until 12Z.
From CWF Synopsis...Maritime convection is still expected to
redevelop overnight ahead of an approaching front, especially
across Apalachee Bay, which likely keeps advisory to near advisory
conditions in place until just after daybreak on Wednesday.
Benign conditions move in for late Wednesday and Thursday before
another system moves through over the weekend likely bringing
advisory level winds and seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A frontal system will be moving across the region over the next day,
behind it we`ll have elevated winds leading to high dispersions
tomorrow and Thursday. Additional rainfall through tomorrow is
expected to generally be confined to the FL Big Bend and Southern
Georgia. A few light showers could pop up across SE Alabama later
this afternoon and evening. Given the recent wetting rains that have
occurred over the last few days, there are currently no fire weather
concerns.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 921 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Evening riverine update: A Flood Warning was issued for Withlacoochee
River - Valdosta Skipper Bridge, which is currently in minor
flood stage. The latest forecast shows cresting tomorrow, then
falling into action stage by late Thursday or early Friday.
Ochlockonee River - Thomasville was excluded from an issuance as
the forecast to barely above minor flood may be a bit overdone.
Rivers along the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Basins are rising
due to rainfall from the past 4 days and some will reach minor
flood stage through the middle of the week. Other rivers in the
region are slowly climbing but reaching minor flood stage is not
expected at these rivers. Additional rainfall is forecast this
weekend and this could bring further rises on area rivers or
extend the time in flood later this week. Rainfall amounts
generally will be around 1 to 3 inches, with the heavier amounts
across Georgia and Alabama but wouldn`t be surprised if we see
some of these higher amounts shift south.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 69 88 67 91 / 50 10 0 0
Panama City 72 84 69 86 / 30 0 0 0
Dothan 67 86 63 88 / 10 0 0 0
Albany 68 85 64 87 / 30 0 0 0
Valdosta 70 87 66 88 / 60 20 0 0
Cross City 70 85 68 88 / 80 50 0 0
Apalachicola 74 83 72 85 / 60 20 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
&&
$$
UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Dobbs/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs/IG3