Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/09/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1030 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift a warm front north across the region
late tonight into Thursday. Unsettled weather will persist
through the end of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9:50 PM Update:
Only minor adjustments needed to the forecast. Slowed down the
onset of POPs a bit. The exact coverage of showers very late
tonight through Thursday morning remains somewhat uncertain,
especially across North Central and Northeast OH. As mentioned
below, forcing isn`t very strong through Thursday morning and
there will be relatively dry northeast low-level flow in place.
However, some models (such as the 3km NAM) have rather
widespread rain Thursday morning. Recent HRRR runs have trended
towards filling in more showers across most of North Central and
Northeast OH. Still feel the greatest shower potential overall
will spread from west to east from around midday through the
early evening, though did increase POPs just a bit Thursday
morning across North Central and Northeast Ohio. Hit everyone
with a categorical (80%+) POP at some point Thursday afternoon
or early evening with most areas peaking at 90-100%, as there`s
decent agreement everyone will see measurable rain at some
point in the afternoon or early evening.
Previous Discussion:
High pressure has allowed for a period of dry weather today. It
was a bit breezy this afternoon with wind gusts around 25 mph,
though expecting these gusts to diminish around sunset tonight.
As the high exits the region tonight a warm front lifts
northeastward and will allow for high level clouds to begin to
filter in tonight. Confidence in shower coverage early tomorrow
morning along the front has decreased since the last forecast
update as frontogenesis and upper level support has backed off
slightly. The better chance for widespread rain showers and
embedded thunder comes late Thursday morning and early afternoon
as the parent low glides east across Northern Ohio. This low
will take its time exiting the region and will keep rain chances
in the forecast through the end of the period. Can`t rule out
some nuisance flooding with any pockets of heavier rainfall
through the end of the week, but overall impacts should be
minimal.
Slightly above normal overnight lows tonight in the mid 50s for
most, upper 40s to lower 50s in Northwest Pennsylvania. Highs
tomorrow will be cooler as they will rise into the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Near normal overnight lows Thursday night in the
mid/upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
We start the short term period with an upper-level trough overhead.
Isolated to scattered rain showers may linger across the area on
Friday especially the eastern part of the forecast area before that
trough departs to the east. Upper-level ridging and surface high
pressure very briefly builds in Friday night before another upper-
level trough and associated surface low move southeast across the
Great Lakes region. Periods of rain showers are expected through the
day Saturday, with mean QPF around 0.25" (some spots lower, other
areas as high as 0.5"). Isolated thunderstorms may be possible
during the afternoon/evening hours. Isolated to scattered rain
showers may linger into Saturday night, mainly for the eastern part
of the forecast area. Temperatures will be below normal through the
short term period with highs around 60 and lows in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad weak upper-level ridging builds in, although several weak
upper-level shortwaves move across the area through the week,
resulting in low PoPs maintaining through the long term period.
Temperatures gradually warm up through the week with highs in the
low 70s increasing to mid-upper 70s by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR will continue through early Thursday. Thursday morning will
see a warm front will lift out of central OH, though it likely
won`t quite reach FDY/MFD/CAK. During the afternoon and evening
on Thursday this front will begin sinking back southeast as low
pressure develops over the Ohio Valley. An initial push of
showers will try pushing in ahead of the warm front late tonight
into early Thursday, though this activity will be fairly
hit/miss and light so not expecting many restrictions with the
showers. Handled with a VCSH mention where needed. A period of
MVFR ceilings may still develop north of the warm front Thursday
morning, though dry northeasterly flow will try to counteract
it. Limited any MVFR ceilings Thursday morning and afternoon to
TOL, FDY and MFD, and even at these sites only prevail them for
a few hours. Can`t rule out brief MVFR at CAK either but
confidence is lower. Showers will become more numerous and a bit
more intense from west to east later Thursday morning into the
afternoon. The greatest potential for vsby restrictions will be
at CAK and YNG, where there`s also a low risk of thunder
Thursday afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, some additional
non-VFR ceilings may begin developing near or just after the
end of the current TAF period Thursday evening.
West-northwest winds are subsiding to less than 7 knots this
evening. Winds will turn northeast overnight at 5 to 10 knots
and continue through Thursday. Locations along the lakeshore
(including TOL/CLE/ERI) may see stronger northeasterly winds
increase to 12-15 knots accompanied by gusts 20-25 knots
Thursday afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely at times in showers and lower clouds
Thursday night into Friday morning. Non-VFR possible in showers
and storms Saturday into Saturday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure over northern Missouri gradually moves east tonight and
tomorrow across the Ohio Valley, with easterly winds strengthening
to 20 to 25 knots during the day Thursday. As the low moves east
towards the mid-Atlantic region, winds gradually veer to northeast,
north and northwest Thursday night and Friday morning. Winds of up
to 25 knots and waves of 3 to 6 feet will result in a small craft
advisory for this period for all of our Lake Erie nearshore waters.
Another weak low moves southeast across the Great Lakes region on
Saturday. There could be periods of stronger winds to 15 knots, but
it`s a low chance of small craft advisory at this point. The wind
and wave forecast looks to be mild Sunday onward as there will
be no strong low of high pressure systems.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for
LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 10 AM EDT Friday
for LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Saunders
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
632 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Key Messages:
Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts, Heat Advisory
in effect for inland Nueces and inland Kleberg Thursday
Haze from near-surface smoke lingers and worsens outdoor
exposure health risk
A weak dryline is currently located right along the Rio Grande up
to Del Rio and northeastward. This is expected to move into the
Brush Country over the next couple of hours, reducing humidity out
west. The greatest heat index values are still expected over the
southern Coastal Bend including inland Nueces, inland Kleberg, and
Jim Wells Counties. There`s still a few hours of heating
potential left in breaks of clouds in combination of dewpoints
near 80 to cause heat index values of 110. Therefore, will
maintain the Heat Advisory through 7 PM this evening.
Haze has been observed across all of South Texas through the day
today and will continue through Thursday night. Smoke guidance
from the HRRR shows increased near-surface smoke concentration
advecting from Central America up to South Texas. Weakening winds
with high dewpoints will also lead to a threat of patchy fog in
combination with the haze. Lows tonight will flirt around the
record high minimum values for the 7th day in a row.
Although the dryline retreats northwestward tonight, it will push
back through most of the Brush Country on Thursday and force
clouds to be focused right along the coast to the Victoria
Crossroads in the afternoon. The dryline will allow air
temperatures to climb around 105-108 over the Brush Country. How
high the heat index values get to Thursday will be dependent on
the eastward extent of the dryline. As of now, it is expected to
halt just west of inland Kleberg and inland Nueces counties,
resulting in a medium chance of at least 110 heat indices in the
afternoon. Therefore, have issued a Heat Advisory for those two
county portions from 1-7 PM Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Key Messages:
Weak cold front Friday morning
Rain chances return this weekend
Models are beginning to come into better agreement showing a weak
cold front pushing through the region Friday morning providing some
relief from the recent above normal temperatures. While rain chances
are low with the cold front, rain chances will increase Saturday as
the front retreats northward as a warm front ushering in PWAT
between 2.0-2.1". Low end chances (20% or less) for rain Saturday
will increase to a medium (30-55%) chance Sunday and Monday as a
shortwave moves across the region interacting with the abundant
moisture. While the Victoria Crossroads appears to be the early
favorite for the best chances of rain, the whole county warning area
will be in play especially Monday, when models show a surface low
moving across the area. Rain chances will quickly taper off early
next week as we begin to dry out.
Temperatures in the wake of the front will drop into the 80s Friday
afternoon and Saturday with most of the region in the lower to upper
80s. Temperatures will begin to increase once again Sunday before
climbing back into the lower to upper 90s early next week into mid-
week. Lows throughout the long term period are expected to remain
steady in the lower to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
VFR ceilings in place over all terminals with MVFR visibilities
in ALI and VCT as residual smoke from Central America has caused
continuous hazy conditions across South Texas. The presence of
haze and reduced visibilities is likely to continue through
tomorrow as depicted by HRRR Smoke guidance. Ceilings will drop to
MVFR/IFR tonight with occasional LIFR over ALI, CRP, and VCT
between 09-14Z. In addition to haze, patchy fog will also be
likely as low dewpoint depressions will coexist with winds less
than 10 kts. A weak dryline will push into the Brush Country from
the west Thursday afternoon, leading to a weak northwesterly winds at
LRD, COT, and ALI. Weak southeasterly winds will persist
elsewhere.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Weak to moderate onshore winds can be expected through Thursday
night along with patchy fog in the late night and early morning
hours. In addition to patchy fog, haze from near-surface smoke
southward will likely continue before our next front passes. A
cold front will move offshore Friday morning. Weak to moderate
northeast winds Friday will strengthen to moderate to strong
Saturday as it shifts to the east. By early next week, winds will
shift to the southeast and remain moderate. Rain chances return
Saturday with a low chance and increases to a medium chance Sunday
and Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 78 96 77 89 / 0 0 0 10
Victoria 76 92 73 90 / 0 10 0 10
Laredo 78 108 75 95 / 0 0 0 20
Alice 76 101 75 91 / 0 0 0 20
Rockport 78 87 77 88 / 0 0 0 10
Cotulla 77 105 75 93 / 0 0 0 10
Kingsville 77 100 76 89 / 0 0 0 10
Navy Corpus 78 90 78 87 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ241>243.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ242-243.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EMF
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...KRS/98
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
449 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Precipitation chances increase later today and overnight with
accumulating mountain snowfall expected. Scattered showers
continue into the day Thursday.
- Warming trend likely headed into the weekend with the return
of above normal temperatures for mid-May.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024
The low pressure center spinning around in the Dakotas that was
responsible for the windy last few days, has begun to retrograde
back to the southwest, leading to another round of precipitation for
the CWA. As the upper-level low pushes into the CWA this evening,
precipitation chances across the area will increase. Clouds have
steadily been increasing across the CWA based on visible
satellite imagery. Regional radar and observations also show
some light rain beginning to creep into the northern tier of the
CWA. As the low continues its trek across the CWA overnight,
winds will turn more northerly leading to upslope flow and
enhanced snowfall amounts on north-facing slopes. The North
Laramie Range will see the best enhancement and highest snowfall
totals. A Winter Weather Advisory is already in place here. Did
go ahead and expand the Advisory until noon tomorrow as the
newest Hi-Res guidance suggests persistent, steady precipitation
at least through the morning hours. Northern slopes of the
Snowy Range could also pick up a quick 6 inches of snow tonight
into Thursday morning. Another area to watch will be Laramie and
Rawlins. GFS and ECMWF ensembles show about 1 to 3 inches of
snow in these cities tonight into tomorrow morning. Decided to
keep totals lower than this as the HRRR show mostly scattered
and quick moving showers. However, if accumulation does occur,
this could lead to some slippery roads for the morning commute.
Most locations east of the Laramie Range will sustain warmer
temperatures overnight, leading to rain showers, with the chance
for a few flakes to mix in.
Widely scattered rain and snow showers will continue into the day
Thursday as a final vorticity max behind the upper-level low lingers
across the CWA. The mountains could pick up an additional inch or
two during the afternoon hours, but warmer temperatures should keep
most of the snow out of the valleys and plains. Some rumbles of
thunder could also be possible as non-zero CAPE values exist across
much of the area. Showers will become less numerous Thursday night
as the low parks itself over the Four Corners region.
Headed into Friday, expect a warmer and less active day. A few
isolated showers could be possible over the high terrain as the low
over the Four Corners sends weak disturbances northward. Weak
southerly flow will allow 700 mb temperatures to rebound back to
around 0C. This will lead to high temperatures near to slightly
below average for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024
An unsettled long term pattern is expected across southeast Wyoming
and western Nebraska. An upper-level low will continue to rotate
around the Four Corners Region and points northwest throughout
evening Friday and into the day Saturday. By Sunday, this upper-
level low will be caught up into the upper-level jet and will
rapidly progress to the east and finally leave this region of the
CONUS. Prior to this, with the low rotating around the Four Corners
Region, a vorticity lobe will traverse from northern Wyoming
southward through much of the CWA. This vorticity lobe will provide
some synoptic lift for the CWA during the afternoon hours Saturday.
With this synoptic lift, but minimal assistance at the 700mb level,
some showers and potentially thunderstorms will be possible across
the region. Modest MLCAPE values around 400 J/kg will be present
across the region, further supporting a thunderstorm or two on
Saturday.
Behind this system, upper-level ridging will build across the
western CONUS and slowly migrate east throughout the day Sunday and
into the early morning hours Monday. The ridge axis will not be
directly overhead on Sunday, but temperatures will increase into the
mid-60s and mid-70s across the area. Once again, with vorticity
lobes moving overhead as they traverse through the ridge, synoptic
lift will be present across the region along with the potential for
modest MLCAPE values once again. The region could see isolated
showers Sunday in the afternoon. A similar setup is expected for
Monday, but the upper-level ridge axis will be closer to the region,
allowing temperatures to warm into the mid-60s to upper-70s across
the region.
A pattern shift is expected by mid-week as an upper-level trough
begins to dive into the northern CONUS on Tuesday. As this trough
moves just north of the CWA, height gradients will increase slightly
leading to the potential for elevated winds Tuesday. As of now,
these winds only look to be elevated and not near high wind
criteria. A cold front will move across the region Tuesday into
Wednesday leading to slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday across
the region. Behind the front, northwesterly winds will pick up once
more and continue the potential for elevated winds throughout the
day. With this cold front pushing through, rain showers and
thunderstorms will be possible again on Tuesday into Wednesday. They
do not look likely to be severe at this time, as MLCAPE values only
approach the 400 J/kg level. Overall, enjoy a warm week in the
forecast with nearly daily chances for isolated showers and the
potential for some thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 443 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024
A tricky aviation forecast will begin to take shape this evening
through Thursday morning. VFR CIGs will transition to MVFR/IFR
fluctuations due to -SHRA/-SHSN, which will also create VIS
reductions at times. Winds are anticipated to be below 12 knots
overnight for all terminals, before picking up in the NE
Panhandle to 20-25 knots. Please see individual TAFs for further
information.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for WYZ103.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...BW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1041 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms east of I-29
will transition to scattered showers overnight into Thursday
morning. Some threat for localized heavy rainfall resulting in
additional rises on some rivers/streams, mainly in northwest
Iowa/southwest Minnesota.
- Warmer and mainly dry conditions move in for the weekend.
Continued warm with renewed rain chances by mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage across parts
of northwest IA and southwest MN through the afternoon as well as
near highway 14. A small axis of instability is expected this
afternoon in this area. Overall instability not that high, but with
the freezing level around 6-7 kft it will be pretty easy to get some
smaller hail. Still looks like an environment supportive of hail up
to half dollar sized with only weak shear expected. One other thing
to watch will be the potential for funnels and landspouts. Steep low
level lapse rates and lighter winds near a surface boundary may
support this type of activity. With only marginal instability and
weak shear any activity like this should be short lived. While some
stronger winds gusts will be possible the HRRR and HREF both
indicating gusts should generally be 50 mph or lower.
The upper level low pressure shears out and sags south tonight into
Thursday. Scattered showers will remain possible during this time,
but instability is quite a bit less so even lightning will likely
diminish quite a bit after about 10 pm. Lows will be seasonally mild
in the mid 40s.
While the main synoptic forcing settles south, model soundings do
show some weak instability near the top of the mixed layer on
Thursday which may support some isolated showery activity.
Temperatures will also be a touch cooler as winds turn northerly and
some diurnally driven cloud cover is expected to develop. Highs
should still be in the 60s.
Friday and Saturday will be dry and mild as northwest flow aloft
weakens and westerly flow in the low levels is in place. By Sunday a
weak wave in this flow could bring some isolated activity but for
now this looks to be low impact. Highs should gradually warm from
the lower 70s Friday to the lower 80s by Sunday.
West to northwest flow aloft is expected Monday and Tuesday which
should lead to a couple of warm days. While this pattern will not be
a wet one, some spotty shower and thunderstorm activity will be
possible. The most agreement appears to be Monday night into Tuesday
morning.
Wednesday into Thursday the models are indicating a strong upper
level jet max diving into the Northern Rockies which should turn
upper level flow more southwesterly and bring a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Thunderstorms near/east of US Highway 59 in northwest Iowa are
expected to weaken further through the remainder of tonight,
with thunder not expected to impact TAF locations. MVFR ceilings
and brief MVFR visibility will be associated with the area of
more persistent rain east of I-29 through early Thursday.
Additional scattered showers will slide back to the south across
southeast SD through Thursday morning, with mainly VFR conditions
expected. The threat of thunder with this activity is too low to
include in TAFs, though is non-zero and will be monitored. Any
showers may still produce gusty winds, though prevailing winds
will generally be at or below 15kt into Thursday morning, with
occasional north-northwest gusts to around 20kt during the late
morning and afternoon.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
928 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain Thursday
- Rain Expected Saturday
- Lower Certainty Pattern Into Next Week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Trends in the latest HRRR suggest this dry air currently in place
will play a more significant role in the timing and amount of
precipitation we end up seeing. Through 12z, there`s almost no qpf
seen in the CWA. Based on this, I trended POPs downward for
tonight and also shifted them further south, closer to the
moisture.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
- Rain Thursday
Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing clouds
tonight as low pressure over Oklahoma begins to get caught up in
the upper flow over of the northern MS Valley trough. Given the
east-west elongated nature of the trough, it will take at least 24
hrs for the low and its precipitation to move out of the cwa.
Model trends track the low across the north side of the OH Valley
tomorrow developing rain in the far southern cwa around 12z and
then moving north. Little in the way of instability means thunder
should stay south of the cwa. QPF totals have trended down a bit
and range from a couple of hundredths near US-10 to around a half
in near I-94. Light rain will end Friday evening.
Below normal temperatures are expected Thursday with highs in the
upper 50s. There could also be some patchy frost in low lying
areas near US-10 Thursday night as temperatures fall into the
upper 30s there.
- Rain Expected Saturday
Friday brings dry weather to West Michigan as high pressure and
ridging aloft shifts through the Central Great Lakes. It will be
slightly cooler than normal with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Our next chance of rain begins early Saturday as a shortwave drives
a surface low across the region. Rain showers are expected with the
best coverage Saturday morning as the low itself crosses the area.
However, some diurnal enhancement on the backside of the low is
possible Saturday afternoon as the upper-level cold pool passing
overhead given steep mid-level lapse rates in the 7C-8C range. If we
can get a shower with a better updraft, those lapse rates suggest
that isolated thunderstorms are possible.
- Lower Certainty Pattern Into Next Week
Dry weather is expected for the day on Sunday as a brief period of
shortwave and upper-level ridging slides through the state.
Precipitation chances do increase somewhat Monday as a shortwave and
cold front enter the region, however the timing and placement of
these features is uncertain. Ensemble means and deterministic
guidance do suggest a longwave trough develops but there remains
notable spread in model guidance as to the specifics of how the
pattern evolves. This gives lower confidence as to forecast details
in the days 5-7 timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
A storm system will track in from the west later tonight and
persist into Thursday afternoon. The low levels are projected to
struggle saturating early on so we will keep conditions at VFR.
However as the rain picks up in intensity, mainly for the
southern TAF sites of KAZO, KBTL and KJXN, the visibility could
come down to MVFR levels. During the afternoon hours as the region
ends up on the backside of the departing storm system, condition
should return to VFR levels. Overall the area will be on the north
side of this wave so the winds will be out of the east.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
East winds will develop tonight and could be gusty for a brief
period during the late morning/early afternoon Thursday but will
hold off on a headline due to the limited nature of it.
Colder air moving southeast early Saturday may result in 3-5 foot
waves south of Grand Haven for a period as well.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
DISCUSSION...04/Thomas
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1134 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorm activity will be more numerous ahead of a
strong cold front tonight into Thursday, with severe storms
possible. The cold front pushes east early Friday morning but
another system approaching out of the south may bring shower and
thunderstorm chances back during the day on Friday. Drier conditions
and below normal temperatures return for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1126 PM EDT Wednesday: Over the past two hours, we have been
watching supercells come off the Cumberland Plateau and begin to
congeal and grow upscale into more of a convective line across the
Great Valley of TN. The storms will likely remain strong to severe
as they cross over a sfc-based CAPE plume of 1000-1500 J/kg that
exists along the TN/NC line, but east of the spine of the mtns,
the environment is much less hospitable. The air mass east of the
Blue Ridge for the most part did not recover, and has only 500 J/kg
at best, which will keep most of the activity in check. The main
concern is the area from the SW mountains down across northeast GA
and the Savannah R basin. An old outflow boundary from the afternoon
convection stalled across this area and a CAPE gradient of 500-1500
J/kg persists, with enough effective shear and low level shear to
allow storms to maintain supercell characteristics. All threats are
in play across this area, so the SPC issued a new Tornado Watch to
cover the possibilities. We are especially interested in the cells
crossing north Georgia as of 03Z. This activity will traverse the
fcst area thru the late night hours and feel the HRRR has had a
good and consistent handle on it. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms may come in behind this one, but the severity will
be even more restricted toward daybreak.
Otherwise...for Thursday...not quite as warm but still mid 80s in
the Piedmont. Slight Risk in place on Thursday but that`s as the
convection slips south in the morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday: For the Thursday night period, the 12z
HREF and CAM consensus depicts just very limited and isolated deep
convection lingering from whatever daytime activity redevelops,
along with a smattering, but again limited response into the night
and mainly confined to the mountains. Not unexpectedly, the pattern
atop the SE CONUS remains dynamic into Friday as energy rounding the
base of the upper trough will finally be again to shove lingering
sfc frontal zone downstream of the cwfa. But before it does, we
will be wary for the threat for tstm encroachment and redevelopment,
along the front itself, and in addition, MCS/bowing cluster moving
in from Georgia. Sensible weather will feature a shotgun mid-chance
pop for Friday with isolated svr storms possible mainly SE of I-85.
Will plan on overspreading the region with deep layered dry air
within the broad downward vertical motion behind the departing s/wv
axis Friday night. Expecting to be under a well mixed and more
seasonable airmass within the deep cyclonic flow on Saturday
featuring maximum temperatures close to climo.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 am EDT Wednesday: A broad upper trough is expected to
progress across the East through the weekend, with dry air/pleasant
surface dewpoints supporting wide diurnal temp ranges...max temps
averaging around normal and min temps a category or so below climo.
By early in the work week, a split flow regime is expected to be in
place across the eastern Conus, with a short wave ridge developing
across the Southeast...downstream of a southern Great Plains upper
low. Global models are at odds regarding the evolution of this
feature, namely its interaction with the northern stream, and
eventual impacts on sensible weather across the Southeast. For now,
there`s enough of a signal to include chance PoPs across much of the
CWA by Mon night/Tue. Temperatures are forecast to be very close to
normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR for the time being at all terminals, and
that should hold into the late evening, hopefully through the end of
busy operations. Most of the forecast area has rain-cooled air with
some sct-bkn low VFR debris clouds. We may see some brief MVFR at
KAND, but this is not likely and left out of the fcst. Wind will be
generally light and modulated by numerous outflow boundaries across
the region, so many places will have a variable direction for the
evening, until a southerly flow can be re-established. We look to
the west and await the next round of storms, which the HRRR brings
into the mtns at 04Z and then quickly east through the pre-dawn
hours. All terminals should see thunderstorms with this complex,
so a 4-hr TEMPO was employed for the initial round. There could be
a second round, or at least a trailing stratiform rain for several
hours into the middle part of the morning. There should be some
MVFR cloudiness lingering into the middle part of the day. Once we
scatter the low deck, expect deep enough mixing for some occasional
wind gusts from the SW thru the rest of the afternoon.
Outlook: A system lifting out of the south my increase shower
and thunderstorm chances again on Friday, but confidence on this
remains low. Drier conditions can be expected this weekend.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1115 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Scattered severe storms possible this evening. All severe
hazards will be possible.
* Flooding concerns increasing for southern and central Kentucky.
A Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday morning.
* Below normal temperatures return by Friday and persist into the
weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
The severe weather environment has weakened over the Bluegrass and
areas east of I-65. The tornado watch has been cancelled over these
areas.
Over southern Kentucky, storms continue to entrain bringing large
rain totals and flooding to these areas. Motorists are advised to
use caution, flooded roads at night are very difficult to see.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
=====================
This afternoon and evening
=====================
A MCV is located near St. Louis this afternoon, evolving slowly
eastward. An effective warm front/remnant outflow boundary extends
SE through portions of western and southern KY, with sfc dewpoints
near 70 F along and south of the boundary. Scattered thunderstorms
have developed in south-central KY along the boundary and associated
instability gradient. Portions of south-central KY have been the
slowest to destabilize in the wake of morning convection and cloud
debris. Sfc temperatures are only now warming into the lower 70s at
BWG, with mid/upper 70s to near 80 noted across southern IN and the
northern half of KY. Likely still have a shallow low-level inversion
present across south-central KY, where ongoing impressive
supercellular storms could be elevated. However, this is also along
a boundary/instability gradient which continues to drift northeast
with time. A long, straight hodograph above 1 km is also supporting
splitting supercells which we have already seen with a left-mover
tracking northeast through Ohio County and a right-mover now moving
east across Warren County. Storms that move further to the right (E,
ESE) will realize greater low-level SRH and have a better chance of
producing a tornado.
A Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of central and southern
KY where the near-term tornado risk is highest - roughly southwest
of a line from Brandenburg to Campbellsville. Further north and
northeast, low-level winds are notably weaker and the tornado risk
is lower.
The scattered storm activity ongoing now is expected to continue to
drift east and northeast with time, while increasing in coverage
this evening. So while severe weather is still very much possible
further north, such as along the I-64 corridor, the window for
storms and severe weather is shorter. The most likely time frame for
severe weather is now (3-4 PM) through Midnight. But areas further
northeast, such as from Louisville to Lexington, have the best
chance at seeing a severe storm from 5-11 PM EDT.
Given the destabilizing airmass (1000-2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very
strong effective deep layer shear (50-60 kt), supercellular storm
modes are likely well into the evening hours. Increasingly larger
clusters and perhaps bowing segments will be possible beyond 8 PM.
All severe hazards remain possible through the evening hours, with
the highest risk in the Tornado Watch area (this includes large
hail, damaging winds of 70+ mph, and tornadoes.
A Flood Watch also remains in effect for much of the area. Again,
the highest risk for flash flooding is concentrated across the
southwestern half of the CWA where the greatest thunderstorm
coverage is anticipated. Will need to watch closely for any training
along the boundary as it slowly lifts northeast. PW values are also
highest, exceeding 1.5 inches, along the lingering boundary. 1-3
inches of rain will be possible, with the highest amounts across
south-central KY. Localized higher totals of 3+ inches cannot be
ruled out across south-central KY.
=====================
Tonight and tomorrow
=====================
A final band of showers and storms will likely push southeast across
the region late this evening into tonight ahead of the cold front.
Confidence in severe weather after Midnight is much lower, but
localized damaging winds cannot be ruled out. Waning instability
will help to limit the wind threat at ground level. This activity
will likely weaken with time as it exits from NW to SE by the early
morning hours. Thursday looks drier with morning lows in the 60s and
afternoon highs near 80 F.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
By Thursday evening, the cold front responsible for recent inclement
weather will be off to our east along with most, if not all,
convective activity. Aloft, a positively tilted longwave trough will
extend from the NE US to an upper low positioned over the Four
Corners region of the SW CONUS. Embedded shortwave energy will
propagate through the longwave pattern into the OH Valley during the
day Friday, coupled with wrap-around moisture from the departing
surface low, and resulting in lingering precip chances. GFS
soundings suggest fog/stratus potential Friday morning; furthermore,
12Z NAM3k and HRRR soundings also show a saturated layer from just
above the surface to around 800/750mb, indicative of the possibility
of drizzle across southern Indiana and north central KY until late
Friday morning.
With the upper trough positioned over the OH Valley, temperatures
through the weekend will be several degrees below normal, resulting
in more of a Springtime feel: looking for daily highs in the upper
60s to low 70s through the weekend. Another shortwave will makes its
way through OH Valley Saturday, bringing another chance of light
showers as well as tightening the pressure gradient enough to
produce some breezy conditions, with gusts expected in the 20-25 mph
range Saturday afternoon. Low level ridging will simultaneously
begin building into our region Saturday, which would suggest dry
conditions for Sunday.
Low amplitude upper level ridging will pass overhead to start the
workweek, as the low level high center passes to our east. This
leaves our region on the dirty side of the high with return flow and
an uptick in low level moisture. Rain and storm chances return as
early as Monday evening through Mid week. Not expecting a washout,
but long range models` low temporal resolution have yet to resolve
finer details. It`s worth repeating though that CIPS/CSU/SPC severe
comparisons show no signs of severe weather during this timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Strong to severe storms are currently scattered through the region.
These storms will continue for the next few hours. At times, strong
storms over the terminals could lead to variable and high winds and
visibilities as low as 1-2SM. As we lose instability from daytime
heating, these storms will begin to weaken.
As the cold front approaches the region from the northwest, a line
of showers and embedded storms will move through the region. This
line will mostly bring SHRA to the I-64 terminals and VCTS to BWG
for a few hours.
In the overnight hours, winds will be mostly from the south and
slowly veer to the southwest.
In the early morning hours, CIGs will lower to MVFR as the cold
front moves through the terminals. Behind the front, winds will veer
to a northwesterly direction and CIGs will improve quickly.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for KYZ023>043-
045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for INZ077>079-
084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRM
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...CRG
AVIATION...SRM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
626 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Showers and thunderstorms will increase and intensify tonight under
a Moderate Risk for severe weather. Destructive winds, very large
hail, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall are all possible. The main line
window of severe weather is from 7 PM tonight to 6 AM tomorrow
morning. After the line exits the region, most of the region will
see dry conditions. North Mississippi may see a shower or
thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon associated with a upper level
disturbance, but a beautiful and dry weekend is in store. Our next
chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will come early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Convection has started to fire up across West Tennessee as of 2 PM.
Pinched in the warm sector of two boundaries is the Mid-South
which has allowed convection to initiate. Showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread and increase in
intensity this evening ahead of a strong cold front.
Strong upper level divergence with a primed environment will allow
convection to intensify later tonight. Mesoanalysis from the RAP
shows plentiful CAPE values 3000-4000 J/kg, lapse rates around 7
C/km that will continue to steepen, 40-50 kts of effective shear,
and curvature to hodographs. The threats for tonight`s severe weather
threat include destructive winds of 80+mph, quick spin up tornadoes
that could be strong, and significant hail of 2" or greater. Most
likely timing for the main line arrival is as early as 6 PM in
northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee.
The main severe weather window for the entire Mid-South is 7 PM to 6
AM Thursday. Once the sun sets, the LLJ will begin to intensify and
quickly push the line on a south/southeast track across northwest
Alabama and northern Mississippi. A Flood Watch is in effect for the
northeast corner of our CWA in West Tennessee (Benton, Carroll,
Weakley, and Henry counties) as this area has higher probabilities
(40-50%) of receiving 2 or more inches of rain tonight. Elsewhere,
generally 1.5-2" is forecast through tomorrow morning. Locally
higher amounts are possible in any intense updrafts.
As storms have begun to fire up as mentioned above, be sure to
secure loose outdoor items, prepare for power outages, and have your
safe place ready to shelter in when a warning is issued. It is not
safe to be in a manufactured home this evening. Please reach out to
friends, family, neighbors, or local city/county officials to locate
your nearest storm shelter or stay with a friend for a safe space.
The line of storms should clear the area by 7 AM at the latest
Thursday morning. Another upper level disturbance from the Gulf
Region may bring some showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
and evening, mainly along and south of Interstate 40. Some
thunderstorms may be strong to severe. On the brighter side, the
weekend looks beautiful with dry and seasonable temperatures in the
70s. Temperatures and dewpoints will be on a slow rise as return
flow settles in ahead of our next system. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms will return Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Currently,
no severe weather is anticipated with this system.
DNM
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Short-term concerns in the 00Z TAF set continue to be the timing
of showers and thunderstorms affecting TAF sites tonight. Latest
model trends suggest the best potential for TS at JBR between
2-5Z, 5-8Z at MEM/MKL, and between 7-10Z at TUP. S winds will
veer NW with an associated cold front tonight. Post-frontal MVFR
ceilings are anticipated late tonight with a return of VFR
conditions towards Thursday afternoon.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TNZ003-004-021-022.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CJC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
645 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered, pulse-y thunderstorms expected this afternoon and
evening across southern Minnesota. Locally heavy rain and a
few strong or severe storms are possible.
- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through
early next week.
- Temperatures will remain near or above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Our stagnant mid/upper level low pattern will slide east tonight,
setting up a nearly horizontal, positively-tilted trough axis along
the Minnesota/Iowa/SoDak border region. Soundings show an inverted-V
setup, with cold air above a warm and dry boundary layer. Surface
temps have already eclipsed 70F in much of southern Minnesota,
supporting a broad area of 500 J/kg SBCAPE embedded with pockets of
1000+ J/kg along the MN/SoDak border. Steep low-level lapse rates
will be enough to create a broad area of showers/storms,
however lack of wind shear should prevent any longer-lived
supercell convection. In other words, we are expected storms to
form and dissipate quickly, leading to isolated hail and strong
downdraft winds. Given the slow movement of the occluded low,
some storms could tap into the effective SRH and form brief
landspouts or weak non-supercell tornadoes. The main threat
will shift to locally heavy rains overnight, with the highest
totals expected south of the MN/IA border.
Northeasterly flow behind the occluded front will advect in slightly
cooler and drier air, leading to quiet weather tomorrow
afternoon/night. An upper-level shortwave disturbance will then
slide southeast through the Great Lakes region on Friday. Steeper
lapse rates and patches of weak MUCAPE will likely lead to a broad
area of scattered showers and thunderstorms across east-central
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The main forcing, and greatest QPF,
looks to be trending slightly further east into Wisconsin per model
(Euro and GFS) run-to-run change.
The upper-level pattern will stay largely the same through early
next week, with a cut-off low to the west and general troughiness to
the east. Any small scale disturbances that ride down from Canada
would bring similar chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will trend 5-10 degrees above
normal, with some areas potentially seeing highs in the 80s Sunday-
Tuesday. The best chance for that comes on Sunday, with nearly 50%
of NBM members breaking the 80F mark across the southern half of
Minnesota.
The cut-off low over the western CONUS will attempt to progress
eastward by mid-week, which would likely be the general
timeframe of our next shot of active weather.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Rain this afternoon has been tied to an upper low over eastern
SoDak and an inverted surface trough up along the MN/SD border.
These features will slowly sag south and east through the
night, which means precipitation is in all likelihood done for
MPX terminals, so removed precip mention from all TAFs. Thursday
morning, as the surface low moves across Iowa, numerous models
show MVFR cigs developing to the north of the low that could
swipe MSP, MKT, & RWF. Those MVFR cigs could come with a few
sprinkles, but moisture on forecast soundings is pretty shallow,
so little in the way of rainfall is expected. After the morning
MVFR threat, skies will clear out through Thursday afternoon
with 10-20 kt NNE winds.
KMSP...The HRRR continues to hint at a shower threat between 12z
and 16z Thursday morning, though RAP forecast soundings show
rather shallow moisture being in place during the morning, which
should really limit the shower threat.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NW 20G35 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind WSW 10-15G20 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
326 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple passing low pressure systems will keep rain chances
in the forecast into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a broad mid-level low
centered over SD and troffing over se Canada back into the Great
Lakes. Into the latter trof, a shortwave is dropping toward Lake
Superior. Btwn the mid-level low and the eastern trof, a col is over
ne MN/NW WI. In the wake of the shortwave that brought rain to the
area last night, particularly the e half of Upper MI, it`s been a
dry aftn so far, but daytime heating has led to cu/stratocu
development inland from the stabilizing influence of Lake Superior.
Recent radar imagery indicates that these clouds are now building
enough depth for some sprinkles or a few -shra in eastern Gogebic
County. Temps currently range from the 40s near Lake Superior to the
mid 60s F in the interior closer to the MI/WI stateline.
Approaching shortwave from the n and weak diurnal instability will
support some -shra/sprinkles over portions of interior western
Upper MI near the MI/WI stateline for the next several hrs. Not
out of the question that a few sprinkles could develop over the
eastern fcst area as well given the buildup of clouds in that
area. A dry night will then follow with skies becoming partly
cloudy. 850mb thermal trof is currently supporting considerable
stratocu ne of Lake Superior. As this thermal trof advects sw,
stratocu will also advance sw. Some of this cloudiness may
appear in Upper MI around sunrise, but probably more so during
Thu morning. Expect low temps tonight in the mid 30s to lwr 40s
F.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough extending from New
England down to the central Rockies 12z Thu. There is also a
shortwave in northern Saskatchewan 12z Thu which heads down to Lake
Winnipeg 00z Fri and into the upper Great Lakes on Fri. Dry and
quiet weather lasts into Fri afternoon. Di no make too many changes
to the going forecast overall.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the ern
U.S. and a trough in the central Rockies and ridge on the west coast
12z Sun. There is also a shortwave in south central Canada 12z Sun
that moves into the upper Great Lakes Sun night. A shortwave moves
into the northern Rockies 12z Tue and into the northern plains 12z
Wed. Temperatures will continue to be above normal for this forecast
period and will be unsettled with weak systems moving through the
area with one on Sunday and one on Wednesday with a sfc front
hanging around the area as well according to the manual sfc progs.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Lower level moisture is mixing out and is being lifted by building
mixed layer. Advection of stabilizing marine layer off of Lake
Superior will also work to limit any cu/stratocu development closer
to the lake this aftn. For IWD/CMX, this stabilizing influence will
allow VFR to prevail this aftn, and VFR will continue tonight. At
SAW, expect stabilizing flow off of Lake Superior to result in MVFR
cigs scattering out to VFR in the next hr or two. VFR will then
continue at SAW tonight. Area of lower level moisture represented by
the stratocu per vis satellite imagery well ne of Lake Superior will
advect sw today and tonight. While some of this moisture will mix
out this aftn, it should contribute to cu/stratocu/MVFR cigs
developing at all terminals after sunrise on Thu. After a few hrs
or so, cloud bases will lift to VFR, or the clouds will scatter out
to VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots will prevail through tonight
mainly over western and central portions of Lake Superior. After
that, despite wind shifts due to multiple low pressure systems,
winds will remain below 20 knots through Monday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening
for LSZ240>242.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243-
244.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1141 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Updated forecast package with new Tornado Watch #214 issued for
southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina to go until 4 AM
EDT with plateau and central valley counties in Tornado Watch #211
expiring at midnight EDT. Several supercell storms that moved into
the plateau counties and southeast Tennessee a few hours ago have
formed into a line and have produced heavy rainfall across the
eastern part of the region. Expect high coverage of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of the night with a risk for more
severe storms in the southern third and heavy rainfall elsewhere.
Later tonight HRR model shows a fast moving line of storms to move
from the plateau to North Carolina by around 900 AM. This may pose
a high wind threat and also more flooding with the heavy rain this
evening.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Updated rain chances this evening with low chances before large
area of showers and storms get here later this evening. Still
looks like strong storms with threat for damaging winds and large
hail and isolated tornadoes southwest half of the area. Also heavy
rainfall with flash flooding still possible with saturated soil
from rainfall earlier this morning and afternoon. Updated forecast
sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Key Message:
1. Risk of severe weather remains through this evening and into the
overnight hours. All hazards remain possible, large hail, heavy
rain, flooding, damaging winds, tornados.
2. The highest risk areas from now through this evening will
generally be along I-40, from Knoxville and westward, including
the northern Cumberland Plateau. Then, the severe threat shifts
further south, south of I-40, later this evening into tonight.
Discussion.
Scattered showers and a few storms are currently ongoing across
the forecast area. This mornings round of showers and storms have
significantly stabilized the atmosphere, generally from Morristown
and all points northeastward into northeast TN and southwest VA.
These areas are still in a slight risk for severe weather but no
longer under an enhanced risk. These are the areas that we feel
will be the least favorable to see additional severe weather
through the rest of the event. Having said that, do not let your
guard down but just keep in mind the threat probabilities are now
lower. With skies just now beginning to clear, if instability can
recover across these areas then the threat levels will rise.
From now through late evening, the area of greatest concern will
be along the I-40 corridor from Knoxville and points westward, as
well as across the northern Cumberland Plateau. There is
currently a tight instability gradient across middle TN and east
along I-40 into the east TN Valley. Latest HRRR shows additional
convection developing over the next few hours across middle TN and
then progressing east along the instability gradient. All hazards
will be possible with this next round of convection. The biggest
question is how far north will the threat area be. Current sat
imagery shows skies clearing across northern Cumberland Plateau.
HRRR shows this area having modest instability recovery through
this evening. The general timeframe for this next round appears
to be between 22Z and 03Z. HRRR also continues to show a few
strong helicity tracks across this area, which is more reason for
concern. Thereafter, a line of convection moves in south of I-40
corridor between 02 and 03Z and progresses east across the
southern east TN valley and into southwest NC through 06Z. All
hazards remain possible with this line of convection as well.
The final round of convection looks like it will push
through the area between 06Z and 12Z. The severe threat during
this last round is much more uncertain due to limited instability.
The biggest threat area, if any, should be limited to the
southern TN Valley as this area has the best chance to have some
remaining instabilty according the HRRR. All hazards remain
possible with this final line of convection but much more
uncertainty exists.
One area we have not thoroughly discussed is the flooding. Thus
far, we have seen several areas receive between 1 and 2" of
precip with isolated pockets of 2 to 3". With the next few rounds
of convection, we are expecting an additional 1 to 2" with
isolated amounts of 2 to 3". These additional rainfall amounts
will become increasing problematic across areas that have already
seen the higher rainfall totals. 6 hour FFG is generally 1 to 2
inches across the areas that have received the higher totals.
There are a few isolated areas with FFG as low as low as 0.5" in 6
hours.
Showers and storms should generally exit the forecast area
tomorrow morning between 12 and 15z. A few showers and isolated
storms may linger through mid afternoon across southwest NC. Dry
conditions are forecast areawide by late afternoon with sunshine
returning to most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Key Message:
1. Cooler weather late week and into the weekend behind the cold
front.
2. Lingering showers possible Friday with shortwaves within the
northwest upper flow. Quick shortwave may bring some showers and
thunderstorms Saturday (highest chance northern areas).
3. Drier weather expected Sunday and Monday with a gradual warming
trend. Chance of showers increases again mid-week.
Discussion.
Behind the cold front on Thursday, cooler and drier air will arrive
across the region within the northwest upper flow. Troughing and
cooler air aloft will result in some diurnal convection on Friday
afternoon with limited potential for thunder.
A stronger shortwave is expected to move through the upper level
northwest flow on Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible on Saturday afternoon, with the highest chance for
precipitation across our northern counties through southwest
Virginia.
Ridging begins to build on Sunday and Monday with drier weather and
a gradual warming trend into early next week. Chance of rain begin
to return on Tuesday and Wednesday as a system is expected to
develop across the Lower Mississippi Valley, but certainty in timing
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
More rounds of showers and thunderstorms to move across the area
overnight tonight. Mostly MVFR conditions anticipated late tonight
and early Thursday morning but there will be a few hours of VFR
conditions before storms move in this evening. Any thunderstorms
passing over a terminal could produce gusty and erratic winds that
differ from the official TAF forecast. Expect improving conditions
by early afternoon Thursday from north to south as rain moves
out. Gusty southwest winds tonight and then west to southwest and
gusty Thursday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 86 62 76 / 90 60 30 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 81 59 70 / 90 70 30 30
Oak Ridge, TN 65 83 58 71 / 90 70 20 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 77 57 67 / 90 80 30 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Cherokee-Clay.
TN...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for Anderson-
Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-
Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-
Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-
Union-Washington TN-West Polk.
VA...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
Washington VA-Wise.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TD
AVIATION...TD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
635 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Earlier warm front now stationary and centered w-e just north of I-
40. This far northern area has served as the flood threat with
numerous advisories and warnings issued thus far. Flood reports have
been received mainly across the Robertson and Sumner county areas.
Energy along the boundary is working eastward with the bulk of the
activity now across the Plateau. To the south, airmass is hanging on
to a weak cap despite warming temps. Upstream however, 2 separate
slugs of energy will be pushing southeastward. This translates to 2
rounds of severe. The 1st will occur from 3pm to 6pm, with the 2nd
round in the 8 pm to midnight timeframe. All forms of severe weather
will be possible. Instabilities will be greatest across our south so
I would think the largest(non tornadic) hail would occur there. As
for rainfall amounts, the flood watch shall continue. Latest Hrrr
shows isolated storm totals of up to 6 inches across an area
stretching from far north central middle TN eastward across the
northern Plateau. Now models do hang onto the light to
moderate shower activity through 12Z to 18Z before ending.
Look for clearing skies Thursday night with cooler temps. Upper
troughing will feature a Friday shortwave with a few showers.
Saturday looks similar with an additional shortwave. The near term
temps will continue to run rather warm tonight and Thursday with 80s
for highs once again. Noticeably cooler by Friday morning with lows
back down into the 50s. We may seven see some 40s by Saturday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
In the extended forecast, ridging will return for Monday. The next
system of interest will be for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Instability looks weak for now so mostly just looking at showers and
non severe tstms for now.
Extended temps will start out on the cool side but will warm back to
near 80 for highs by mid week. Overnight lows will work back into
the lower 60s as well.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Widespread thunderstorms will continue across the area through 09z.
IFR/LIFR conditions in thunderstorms due low cigs, low vis, heavy
rain, and gusty winds. A line of thunderstorms will move in to the
northwest after 04z and will work south and east through 09z.
Gusty winds will be possible along with that line along with the
heavy rain. VFR conditions should build in behind the line but
light rain will linger through the night. Rain moves out after
12z. Southerly winds up to 10 knots shifting westerly behind the
line of thunderstorms, higher winds possible in any thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 68 86 58 72 / 90 30 10 10
Clarksville 66 83 54 70 / 80 10 10 10
Crossville 63 79 53 66 / 90 50 20 30
Columbia 66 85 56 72 / 100 30 10 10
Cookeville 65 80 54 67 / 90 50 20 20
Jamestown 63 79 53 66 / 90 50 20 30
Lawrenceburg 66 84 57 72 / 100 40 10 10
Murfreesboro 66 85 55 72 / 100 40 10 10
Waverly 66 83 54 71 / 90 10 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Grundy-
Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-
Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-Williamson-
Wilson.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Mueller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
650 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler and wetter weather appearing likely Thursday into the
weekend.
- Accumulating snow across the higher terrain is also appearing
likely, with the highest snowfall amounts and impacts expected
across the peaks.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024
Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire this evening as
winds start to ease and humidity levels gradually improve.
Incorporated lates obs and satellite data, as well as hi-res
HRRR and RUC guidance. Moore
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024
Overall, relatively quiet across southern this afternoon with partly
cloudy to mostly sunny conditions in place for most areas. West
northwest flow situated across the central mountains is assisting
with some expansive cloud cover this afternoon, though lacking
deeper moisture has limited any snow development. This will continue
to be the case for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening,
especially as the upper trough sags to the south and flow becomes
more baggy. Surface trough situated across southeast plains is
supporting some spotty stronger winds/gusts this afternoon and along
with some lower RH values, am still seeing at least spotty critical
fire weather conditions. Given these conditions in place and the
higher likelihood for them to continue over the next couple of
hours, have opted to leave the Red Flag Warning in effect.
As the upper trough sags south later this evening into tonight, will
see a cold front move south through much of the Colorado. Initially,
no real impacts look to occur. However, increases in moisture along
veering flow will support a return to moist/upslope flow and
increases in isentropic ascent will support expanding cloud cover
and increases in precip. Precip chances will really increase
Thursday morning into the afternoon time frame and initially for
areas over and near the mountains. During the day on Thursday, snow
will be likely across the mountains and with rain expected over the
lower elevations. Amounts and impacts from the snow across the
mountains do look to be low through Thursday afternoon, and have not
issued any winter headlines at this time. With some weak instability
expected to be in place, can`t rule out some rumbles of thunder over
the higher terrain. By late in the period, will begin to see the
precip really blossom, as the upper trough/low continues to draw
near. In this cloud cover and precip, temps are expected to be well
below average on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024
Recent trends with guidance today is suggesting that portions of
south central Colorado, especially over and near the higher terrain,
could see a period of steady light to at time moderate precip from
Thursday night into Friday. With the upper low to the west, will see
deep southerly flow situated across southern Colorado. Increases in
large scale ascent, deep moist/upslope flow, and continued
isentropic ascent look to really focus precip development into our
area during this time. Have increased pops, qpf, and snow to account
for these trends. Rainfall rates don`t look to be overly concerning
at this time given lower instability, even with any thunderstorm
development. Most locations across south central Colorado will
likely see this rain result in amounts of one half inch to around an
inch. For the higher terrain, highest snowfall amounts look to be
primarily for the higher peaks of the mountains and with this
expectation, think impacts will be low. That being said, am getting
a little concerned that snow levels could lower more than currently
forecast and if so, amounts and impacts could be higher. This will
definitely need to be monitored, along with the need for winter
headlines.
Should see a trend for additional precip development to focus more
across the higher terrain, especially the Continental Divide, later
Friday into Friday night. This will be in response to this upper low
moving more to the south. For the remainder of the weekend into
early next week, should see this upper low slowly shift to the east
with precip chances likely returning. Coverage of precip looks to be
lower, and once again, likely focused over the higher terrain. The
risk of any strong to severe storms does look to be low at this
time, however, increases in moisture and instability could support a
higher risk on Saturday, especially as this system moves through. A
trend towards more normal temps is expected into early next week,
along with periodic precip chances.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024
KALS: Mostly VFR through 24 hours. Winds will pick up by 12Z
tomorrow, remaining southeasterly through the end of the period
with mid to low-level clouds, bordering on MVFR. Showers will
move in from the adjacent higher terrain tomorrow afternoon, and
cloud ceilings will fall as showers approach the terminal.
KCOS: Winds will remain northwesterly for a few hours before
turning more northerly overnight. Clouds will increase and
ceilings will lower to near-MVFR by 12Z. Showers are expected
in the area tomorrow after 16Z or so, and will lower conditions
to MVFR. Rain showers will be possible at the terminal and could
lower visibility.
KPUB: East-northeasterly winds overnight will turn more
northerly prior to 12Z. Clouds will remain VFR but will increase
in coverage through around 16Z. Showers are expected in the area
tomorrow and may drift close to the terminal. Confidence in
precipitation directly overhead is still too low to include in
the 00Z TAFs, but clouds will sink to MVFR heights tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...EHR/RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1008 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Expanded Tornado Watch 210 in time to midnight and included some
Arkansas counties for a while longer too active SVR warnings.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Primarily to warm overnight lows at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
The HRRR has been wrong before, so we will give these storms a
couple more hours of breathing room along our I-30 corridor with
the Tornado Watch editing so to speak. Lots of CAPE and momentum
now with radar trying to play connect the dots on these towers.
We have kept some maybe severe wording in for the overnight at
this time. More to come by midnight and of course and in our new
zone package for the day ahead with our broad I-20 corridor
Enhanced Risk for day 2. /24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Quieter weather briefly returns through the weekend before
precipitation chances are reintroduced early next week. Quasi-
zonal flow aloft will allow for a mid-level trough to drift
eastward across the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. This
trough, in combination with ridging shifting further east across
the Mississippi River, will maintain enhanced southerly flow and
moisture through most of early next week. Precipitation chances
will remain through the same time period as a result. /16/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Widespread haze originating from Mexico and Central America will
result in some instances of MVFR visibilities at the start of the
period. A complex of strong to severe convection is expected to
enter portions of Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas around
09/02z before moving southeast affecting most TAF sites. The
storms should begin to rapidly weaken after midnight local time,
so convection was not mentioned at KMLU or KLFK. Low clouds are
expected to rapidly develop after the storms dissipate resulting
in widespread IFR/LIFR flight conditions. A slow improvement is
expected after daybreak Thursday, but VFR conditions should return
to most sites by 09/18z. More strong to severe thunderstorms are
anticipated to affect Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas,
potentially affecting KTYR, near the end of this TAF cycle.
CN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 90 67 83 / 40 30 50 0
MLU 75 90 65 81 / 30 20 60 0
DEQ 66 86 58 80 / 60 30 30 0
TXK 72 87 62 81 / 70 30 40 0
ELD 72 86 61 80 / 60 20 40 0
TYR 72 88 65 82 / 40 40 40 0
GGG 74 88 65 82 / 40 30 50 0
LFK 74 92 67 84 / 10 30 40 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...09
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1002 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
On the forecast update, have added patchy fog to our Big Bend and
south-central GA counties late tonight and around sunrise. The
dewpoint of 78F at Buoy 42036 suggests a favorable environment
for fog as the moister air moves northeast overnight.
Otherwise, the latest HRRR runs are speeding up the timing with
the first round of storms coming in from the north tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
The gusty winds will calm down this evening and the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will fall to the low 70s. More clouds will
filter in during the overnight hours. Patchy fog may be possible but
not expected to be widespread as it has been for the past couple of
mornings.
For Thursday: The upper level ridge over the Gulf will flatten
through the day as mid-level perturbations traverse east over
Alabama and Georgia ahead of a strong cold front. Our northernmost
counties will likely see thunderstorms during the afternoon hours on
Thursday. Thursday afternoon and evening is expected to be quite
active as the environment will be favorable for severe weather.
Instability will be elevated with CAPE ranging between 1000-2000
J/kg and deep-layer shear around 35-45 kts and steep lapse rates.
These parameters will be conducive to strong to destructive wind
gusts (up to 75 mph), large hail, and a few tornadoes. The storm
mode looks to approach the region as a squall line moving south
through the afternoon hours and evening hours.
Because of these threats, the SPC has upgraded the risk for our
northern AL and GA counties (Tifton, GA to Enterprise, AL) to an
Enhanced (3 of 5) risk for severe weather Thursday afternoon through
the night. From that line down to I-10, these areas are included in
a Slight (2 of 5) risk for severe weather. The threats are the same,
but the amount of coverage for this area is less from numerous
storms to scattered storms. South of I-10 to the coast is in a
Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe storms. There is also a heavy rain
threat for our northwest counties, hence the WPC highlighted the
area in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. The
Enterprise, AL to Dawson, GA line has a forecast PWAT greater than
1.75". The northern most part along that line is clipped into a
Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. PoPs for Thursday
afternoon range from 30-60 percent for areas north of I-10. South of
I-10 has about a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Timing of storms:
We expect an overall three rounds of storms for Thursday afternoon,
the second round happening Thursday night into Friday, and the third
happening around daybreak Friday.
Round 1 storm timing will begin around 12pm ET for our northern
counties in AL and GA, moving south during the afternoon through the
evening. Round 2 will have the greatest risk for severe storms,
which will be discussed in the short term.
Not everyone will see showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, so
temperatures are still expected to rise to the low 90s, as storms
are not expected until the late afternoon. Heat indices for areas
around the I-75/I-10 corridor will be in the upper 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
The main story will be the potential for severe weather. The D2
forecast from SPC added an Enhanced Risk for severe weather from
about Berrien Co GA to Coffee Co AL northwards, south of that
line, a Slight Risk of severe weather to about I-10, with a
marginal risk dipping down into the the coastal counties and most
the FL Big Bend. The situation is a one-two punch for severe
weather. The first round could be an MCS dropping into SW GA from
the north which is talked about in the near term. Then we have the
main event Thu night into Friday where we could have a squall line
come through. This is expected to be the larger event where we
could see numerous severe storms capable of producing damaging and
potentially destructive winds, large hail, and even embedded
tornadoes. There is the potential for a third event / squall line
Friday afternoon which will be dependent on boundaries and prior
convective systems.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
We will be post frontal by Saturday with high pressure building in
for the weekend. Northerly winds will usher in cooler air to the
region, placing highs in the upper 70s and low 80s for the GA and
AL counties, and in the low to mid 80s in FL. The reprieve in
temperatures will continue overnight with lows falling into the
mid to upper 50s for most of the region. Warming returns on Sunday
with highs in the low to mid 80s.
By early next week the pattern looks to change and become wet
again. Another shortwave looks to move across the northern Gulf
states with our region possibly being impacted on Tuesday as winds
turn to being southeasterly. With this shortwave possibly moving
overhead, a stationary boundary to our south, left behind from the
previous system, and a low-level wind field again around 30-45
kts, the potential for severe is once again present as well as the
threat for heavy rain. We`ll have to see how this progresses over
the next few days to have better confidence, be sure to come back
for updates.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Similar to the last few evening, stratocumulus clouds with bases
of 010-015 are gathering along the Panhandle coast. They will move
and spread inland after sunset, bringing IFR cigs and reduced
vsbys as we move through the night and get out to sunrise. Clouds
will lift and scatter during the hours after sunrise. On Thursday
afternoon, a large cluster of thunderstorms will move southeast
through eastern Alabama and Georgia, possibly slipping south of
the Florida state line while weakening late in the valid period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
An Atlantic ridge axis across the southern Florida Peninsula will
retreat southward on Thursday. A cold front will slowly approach
from the north on Friday, preceded by strong to severe
thunderstorms over the waters. The front will limp across the
waters on Friday night. It will be followed by moderate to
occasionally fresh northerly breezes on Saturday morning. Surface
high pressure over the southern Plains on Saturday will move
across the Southeast States on Sunday, causing winds to clock
around. High pressure will move east into the Atlantic on Monday,
and low pressure will deepen over the Southern Plains.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Wetting rains and severe storms are expected for our northern GA
districts Thursday afternoon through Friday. All regions are
expected to receive a wetting rain from early Friday through the
afternoon. Along with the rain; gusty, damaging winds are expected
in thunderstorms, with large hail, and possible tornadoes.
Outside of rain and thunderstorms, high dispersions are expected for
Thursday afternoon for areas south and east of the storms. So, along
the I-75 corridor will have dispersion indices around 75 units.
Mixing heights will be around 4000 feet.
The cold front will pass through during the day on Friday, shifting
the winds northerly by Friday night. Dispersions will increase to
about 60-70 units with the front on Friday afternoon for our
northwestern most counties. Elevated dispersions are expected for
Saturday afternoon with northerly winds and dry conditions. The
MinRH for Saturday will be around 35-40%.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
The forecast generally remains on track with a Slight Risk
clipping our extreme northern counties in AL and GA for Excessive
Rainfall with a Marginal Risk extending from Ben Hill Co in GA to
Geneva Co in AL. For Friday, the Marginal Risk is expanded south
clipping most of the CWA. Moisture looks to be bountiful with
PWATs around 2 inches or so. The main concern looks to be with
flash flooding if storms move slowly or train.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 93 72 85 / 10 20 30 80
Panama City 75 86 73 83 / 20 20 30 70
Dothan 73 90 70 83 / 10 50 50 80
Albany 72 92 69 84 / 10 50 50 80
Valdosta 71 92 72 85 / 10 30 40 90
Cross City 69 87 71 85 / 0 10 20 80
Apalachicola 75 83 73 82 / 10 10 20 60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Haner