Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/06/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
926 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move through the region Monday sweeping
away the low clouds, showers and any fog. High pressure builds
into the region but only for a short stay Tuesday. Additional
systems with some showers move through for the rest of the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM Update...
Radar imagery shows virga over the southern tier of NY,
otherwise conditions are pretty quiet across the area this
evening. A few showers are popping up to the west our of CWA as
another wave of moisture moves in. These showers will be light
in nature and are expected to reach the region within the next
few hours. Made the usual updates to temperatures and dewpoints
using current observations, no other changes were needed at this
time.
630 PM Update...
Rain showers remain over the western Catskill region of NY,
otherwise showers have dissipated across the area. Radar favors
HRRR solution, therefore blended this into the previous
forecast. Other CAMs show some light pop up showers occurring
later this evening and overnight, as a result kept slight
chance Pops in the forecast. Also made minor changes to update
temperatures and dewpoints using current observations.
330 PM Update...
A cold front will slowly move through the region tonight. However,
the main shortwave ahead of the front will shift east of the region
of this evening. This will lead to a decrease in shower coverage
across the region from west to east. The overall flow looks weak,
leading to light winds. The light winds coupled with clouds and
lingering moisture may result in some fog development as well
overnight. Temperatures may also hold fairly steady as a result of
the clouds and fog through most of the night.
The cold front only slowly moves through the area Monday so low
clouds and fog will be hard to clear out especially in NE PA.
However, some sunshine is expected by the afternoon allowing
temperatures to push 70. Clear skies and light winds under high
pressure Monday night. A fairly favorable setup for raditional
cooling as a result of the above mentioned with temperatures
falling fairly quickly to around 40. This looks to be just warm
enough to prevent any frost but fog may be possible again
though.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...
High pressure will continue to slide into the area from the
Great Lakes on Tuesday. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions
will make for a very lovely Tuesday. Winds will remain light and
variable during the day as the center of the surface high moves
overhead. Plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to climb
into the 70s, even with a cooler airmass overhead.
The ridge and surface high will move east of the area by late
afternoon as the next low pressure system moves into the Great
Lakes region. This low will bring a wind shift to SWerly, and
push a weak warm front into the region during the evening
hours. Rain showers are expected to develop over the area by
the mid evening through Wednesday morning as the low tracks over
CNY. Temperatures overnight will fall into the mid to upper
50s.
The warm front doesn`t push too far north as the low quickly
track across the region and drags a weak cold front through the
area by late morning. Soundings show some pretty dry air in the
mid and upper level of the atmosphere accompanying this front
so additional showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible along the front, but should not linger once the it
passes. The warm front retreats to NEPA, where temperatures will
climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. In NY, where the cold
front and rain has more impacts, temps will only reach the upper
60s to low 70s.
Weak mid-level ridging moves into the area Wednesday night,
which will keep conditions dry, but should pull in some cooler
Canadian air. Temps are expected to fall into the upper 40s to
low 50s. The Wyoming Valley should remain in the mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 PM Update...
Active weather continues for the end of the work week as a
low pressure slowly moves across the Ohio Valley on Thursday
and weak low pressure develops off the Delmarva Peninsula on
Friday, continuing to trek to the ENE. Rain showers and cooler
temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday. A transient ridge
moves over the region Saturday behind the departing trough,
keeping conditions cool and mostly dry. There will be a chance
for a few isolated afternoon showers as a weak shortwave moves
into the area from the west. Sunday should see more showers as
another trough moves into the region. The GFS and Euro are
handing this very differently, with the GFS having a much deeper
and stronger trough dig into the southern US and slowly rotate
from positive to negative over the eastern US while the Euro
has a flatter and much more transient trough. Because of this
uncertainty, NBM PoPs were relied upon, bringing a chance
(30-50%) of rain to the area Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
745 PM Update
Widespread MVFR/Fuel Alt CIGs are across the area early this
evening, with IFR already at BGM and AVP.
Ceilings should lower to IFR before 06z at ELM and ITH...and by
around 09z early Monday morning at SYR and RME. Widespread IFR
to LIFR CIGs then persist through the morning hours, before
gradually lifting to MVFR or even VFR at all sites (except AVP)
by 16-18z Monday. AVP finally lifts above IFR by around 20z
Monday afternoon. VFR at all sites except AVP expected by 21-11z
Monday afternoon/evening.
There remains some uncertainity with the visibility overnight
into Monday morning. Blended model data shows vsbys falling
between 1-4SM at all of our taf sites by daybreak. It`s possible
some pockets of lower visibility and even dense fog form; pin
pointing where is too uncertain at this time. Visibility rises
back to high end MVFR and VFR by late morning or midday.
Light southerly winds under 10 kts overnight, turning west-
southwest under 5 kts Monday morning. Winds eventually turn
northwest Monday afternoon 5-10 kts.
Outlook...
Monday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. Patchy early
morning fog possible.
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning....Restrictions likely with
a period of rain showers along a warm front.
Wednesday afternoon and night...Mainly VFR; except lingering
MVFR possible at RME & perhaps SYR. Isolated t`storm possible.
Thursday through Friday... Periods of showers with some
restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...ES/MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MJM/MWG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
814 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very active weather pattern through the next couple days, with
Winter Weather, Fire Weather, and High Wind highlights in effect
- Snow and blowing snow develops across the high country late
tonight and continues through Tuesday. Travel impacts likely,
especially across the Park Range/Rabbit Ears Pass.
- Widespread gusty winds developing tonight and continue through
at least Tuesday, with the strongest winds expected across the
higher Foothills.
- Cool and unsettled weather along with much lighter winds
Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Main change at this hour is for more cloud cover overnight, as the
dry slot with clearing of the high clouds won`t arrive until late
tonight. Winds will be decreasing a bit in the Denver area as they
go more south to southwest; they should start to pick up again in
the pre dawn hours with the strong west winds developing around
sunrise. Also reduced PoPs outside of the mountains. There`s a lot
of weak convection over western Colorado but it won`t make much
eastward progress and low level air just east of the Front Range
is still pretty dry.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Through Monday/...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
A busy, mostly windy, short term forecast across our CWA. A potent
trough axis is expected to swing across the region over the next
36 hours, leading to quite a few different hazards across the
state.
GOES water vapor satellite and RAP mesoanalysis show the center of
the upper trough near northern Nevada this afternoon... and this
will quickly become negatively tilted as it ejects north of the
forecast area into the northern plains. Ahead of this trough,
broad but strong south/southwesterly flow has developed, and
widespread gusty winds have developed across most of the lower
elevations, except for a sliver of the western metro/I-25 corridor
where the deeper mixing has yet to kick in. Today`s wind is just a
preview of the next few days, while the warmer temperatures will
be a passing memory by tomorrow.
Later tonight, mountain snow is expected to develop as the flow
aloft turns more westerly and better moisture advects into the
high country. Guidance has gradually become a bit more bullish on
both the snow and wind potential, and we`ve expanded the Winter
Weather Advisories to the I-70 and northern mountain corridors
where a few inches of wind blown snow looks likely tonight into
tomorrow. There`s some uncertainty with regards to impacts given
the current warm temperatures and the early May sun angle, but
there will likely be a period of difficult travel across the
mountain passes during the peak snowfall rates late tonight/early
Monday AM.
Monday morning will also feature an increase in winds as a bora
event develops. Models show good cold air advection/pressure rises
behind the passing trough axis with mid-level/ridgetop flow near
50kt. Winds will quickly increase across the foothills and
adjacent plains early in the day and continue through at least the
evening hours. There is still some question as to the spatial
extent and duration of the strongest winds, with the HRRR notably
stronger across the lower foothills and the typical very windy
spots near Boulder/Highway 93. Machine-learning guidance from CSU
is also split close to 50/50 on if we see higher wind gusts this
far east (though their criteria is slightly different than ours).
Have opted for a High Wind Warning in the foothills and will
message the potential for stronger gusts in the immediately
adjacent plains. Further east, wind gusts will still be fairly
strong (30-50 mph) but not quite at the threshold for any
highlights.
Tomorrow will also be cooler than the past couple of days, with
high temperatures likely remaining in the upper 50s to perhaps the
low 60s across the plains. Still, the airmass is dry enough south
of I-70 for some localized critical fire weather concerns... see
the fire section below for more details.
&&
.LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Monday night through Tuesday evening, a large upper level storm
system will be centered over the Northern Rockies and Northern Great
Plains States with a strong westerly flow aloft over Central
Colorado. Favorable orographic flow combined with decent QG lift and
occasional upper level disturbances should result in periods of snow
across the mountains. The exception may be early Tuesday morning
when moisture and QG lift may be minimized. Overall, the snow
should be generally light due to a lack of cold air advection.
However, with a 115KT+ upper jet over the southern sections of the
CWA, can`t rule out some localized heavier bands. This pattern
will also bring breezy to windy conditions to the high country
with areas of blowing snow possible, especially over mountain
passes. The strongest winds are expected across the Front Range
Mountains/foothills and over the Cheyenne Ridge Monday night with
gusts up to 75 mph possible over wind-prone areas.
Further east across the plains it will be mostly dry, cool and
windy. The winds should be strongest along and near the foothills
Monday night with gusts to 55 mph and most widespread Tuesday
afternoon with gusts to 45 mph. The gusty winds combined with low
relative humidity and dry fuels may lead to fire weather concerns
across Southern Lincoln County Tuesday afternoon and evening. For
more details, see the fire weather discussion below.
On Wednesday, the mid an upper level flow over Colorado decreases as
the strong upper low over the Northern Great Plains weakens and
shifts east into the Upper Midwest. A broad upper trough will still
remain over the Western U.S. with lighter winds across the CWA and
scattered (30-50%) snow showers possible over the Northern
Mountains. However, breezy conditions across much of the forecast
area are still expected to continue.
Wednesday night and Thursday, the large elongated upper trough that
covers much of the Western and Central U.S. splits as a closed upper
low develops over the Intermountain west due to energy rotating
around the back side of the trough.
The weak upper low is progged to track across the Southern and
Central Rockies Thursday through Saturday. In addition, occasional
cold fronts associated with the Central Plains trough are progged
to move across Northeastern Colorado as well. The combination of
upslope flow and increased moisture behind the fronts and some
lift associated with the weak upper low should result in cool and
unsettled weather during this period. Dry and warmer weather is
expected on Sunday as upper level high pressure builds over the
Rocky Mountain Region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 806 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Crosswinds at KDEN/KAPA Monday are the main issue for the TAFs.
Winds will become southwest this evening with gusts in the 20 to
30 knot range at KDEN/KAPA, with lighter speeds at KBJC.
Increasing speeds are expected after 08z, with strong west winds
after 11z-12z. West winds gusting to around 40 knots are expected
most of the day, which will create crosswind issues at KDEN and
KAPA. It currently looks like the direction will remain pretty
close to due west most of the day. There is a chance (30%) of
winds becoming more WNW and/or decreasing speeds after 21z, this
is more likely after 00z. VFR conditions through Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Critical fire weather conditions are forecast across southern
Lincoln county on Monday as dry and very windy conditions develop.
Relative humidity values should fall to 10-15 percent with wind
gusts of 45-55 mph at times. Overnight humidity recovery will also
struggle to reach 50%... and we may need to continue to extend
that into Tuesday/Wednesday.
Gusty winds and lower humidity will be over the southern sections
of the plains Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there is still some
question as to how dry the fuels are due to decent precip in the
latter half of April. The only area that didn`t receive decent
precip was over portions of southern Lincoln county. Thus that
would be an area to watch for critical fire conditions in the
afternoon and early evening hours.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Monday
for COZ031-033-034.
High Wind Warning from 3 AM Monday to 6 AM MDT Tuesday for
COZ035-036.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ247.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Hiris
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
FIRE WEATHER...Hiris/JK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1046 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
The on-going forecast is in fine shape for the overnight. An area
of showers and thunderstorms that earlier moved across the
region in the late afternoon and evening have exited to the
northeast. A few light showers however continue moving 20-25 mph
across the area to the NE, as a moist and unstable environment
remains in place. New output from the May 6th 00Z model runs
continue to show a similar trend of more showers and thunderstorm
set to impact the area in the overnight. Even this close end,
there remain differences in output, with the HRRR the driest and
FV-3 wettest.
Going with a "compromise" based more on the RAP and ARW (the
latter which has preformed well) suggests that the overnight
showers should impact mainly our western counties, then traverse
to the NE before daybreak Monday. Rather mild for early May
conditions will continue, with lows only cooling into the mid 60s
in most areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
As the shortwave continues to weaken and move east towards the
Mid-Atlantic region on Monday, forcing weakens over the area.
Shear picks back up, but better forcing will be well north of the
area in Kentucky and Tennessee. However, strong to severe storms
given expected instability and around 35 knots of shear look
possible. A severe thunderstorm cannot be totally rule out, but
should be isolated if they occur.
Shear strengthens more on Tuesday with moderate CAPE redeveloping
in the afternoon. Not expecting organized severe storm activity
due to the weak forcing expected. This could be a bit more
organized that activity we see on Monday if forcing end up being
stronger. However, much of that forcing moves northeast of the
area. Regardless, if the convection can get going, a few severe
storms could occur. Main threats would be large hail and damaging
winds winds with any severe storms.
Overall, there has been very little change in guidance from the
global models, with any nocturnal storm clusters that survive as
far southeastward as the TN Valley early Wednesday morning
expected to dissipate rather quickly by mid-day along a stalled
boundary ahead of an approaching cold front. Attention will then
refocus to the northwest of our region, where explosive
development of convection is expected to occur on Wednesday
afternoon as a frontal wave shifts northeastward into MO. One
region of potential convective development will be downstream from
the path of the surface low (from eastern KS into central IL),
with another region of potential development along the trailing
cold front extending southwestward into northeastern TX.
This will keep low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Very
strong warm air advection is shown in models over the area south
of this boundary. 925 mb temperatures in guidance still climb to
between 22 and 25 degrees. Thus, highs in the upper 80s and maybe
lower 90s could occur. Shear picks up some to around 40 knots
during the afternoon hours. Mainly expect strong storms given weak
forcing, but can`t rule out a severe storm.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
It still appears as if this activity will grow upscale into a
rather potent MCS that should track southeastward into our CWFA
late Wednesday night into the early morning hours on Thursday.
With mid-level WSW flow expected to easily be in the 45-50 knot
range at this point atop a southwesterly low- level jet of 30-40
knots, all severe hazards (including tornadoes) will be possible
with this convective system.
Yet another round of rain and thunderstorms may occur with the
passage of a cold front Thursday night, but at least low-level
shear will be weaker with this final round, and airmass recovery
may not be sufficient to support a risk of strong-severe storms. A
refreshing surge of cooler/drier continental air will spread
southeastward in the wake of the cold front, bringing dewpoints
into the 40s for much of next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
The main line of thunderstorms have pushed through the terminals,
but showers will linger into the night keeping MVFR conditions in
place. Reduced the coverage of showers and storms for tomorrow
morning into early afternoon for this TAF issuance and introduced
a PROB30 instead for isolated showers until the afternoon when
the low chances for thunderstorms returns.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...JMS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1031 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Forecast is on track tonight so minimal adjustments were made. A
narrow line of broken showers and thunderstorms has been making
its way into East Tennessee the past half hour or so. HRRR brings
this across primarily west of Interstate 75 through the night,
bringing light rainfall to the area. Tomorrow, another bout of
scattered showers and thunderstorms still looks to be on track,
some locations may see several showers or storms. A couple of
very isolated areas (Jellico and the Rockwood Airport) received
near an inch of rain in a short order today, those who have
received decent rains the last couple of days will be more at risk
of nuisance flooding or worse as the next several days of
thunderstorms commences.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Key Messages:
1. Scattered showers/storms this afternoon will diminish this
evening.
2. Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms later tonight
into Monday.
Discussion:
Weak upper level ridging over us to start will exit east this
evening, and an upper level shortwave and associated longwave
troughing will move over the region later tonight into Monday. An
area of modest upper divergence associated with a right entrance
region of the jet will move across our area later tonight into the
first half of Monday as well.
After the more diurnally driven late afternoon convection diminishes
this evening, we will see an area of showers with some embedded
thunder moving from southwest to northeast across our area later
tonight into Monday. There will likely be a bit of lull behind this
main band, but as the atmosphere recharges with some heating
(afternoon MLCAPES will likely approach 1000 J/kg at least in the
across the south/central) and the axis of the upper trough continues
to move east over our area, we will see additional showers and
thunderstorms around during the afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Key Messages:
1. Showers and thunderstorms are likely most days through much of
the week.
2. Most organized and possibly strongest storms could come Tuesday
into Thursday.
3. With several days of rainfall flooding threat will increase next
week.
Discussion:
Monday night will see another day of showers and thunderstorms as
the slow moving shortwave slides through the area helping to spark
off storms. We will continue the trend of moderate to low CAPE and
weak shear leading to similar storm structures as we`ve seen in the
past few days. Tuesday will see a chance for a bit more organization
when it comes to storms as a strengthening jet moves towards the
Ohio Valley, and a LLJ begins to nose into the region. Several
rounds of storms are possible with strong winds and flooding looking
to be the primary concerns with storms at this time.
By Wednesday, the jet will remain across the same area with a
southern jet strengthening to in excess of 100 knots. A frontal
boundary should be located across the Plains and making it`s way
eastward. This should provide a larger divergent pattern aloft and
850mb flow possibly reaching 40 kts by the evening and into Thursday
while the frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. Convection
during this timeframe would likely be even more organized than on
Tuesday. As with the convection on Monday/Tuesday strong winds and
heavy downpours leading to flooding still looks to be the primary
concern through the middle of the week.
By Thursday the front will move into the area allowing for a focus
for yet even more focused shower and thunderstorm activity. And
forecast confidence continues to be low several days out and with
lots of atmospheric changeover between now and Thursday.
Almost all models point to a drier and cooler weekend once the front
passes through with temperatures barely eking into the 70s for many
locations Friday through the end of the weekend. And while there are
some low end precipitation chances still possible, expect most
locations will finally get a chance to dry out over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Scattered SHRA and TSRA possible at times through the next 24
hours. Winds will be light outside of any storms at the terminals.
A line of convection moving across Alabama will likely reach CHA
by 02-03z, bringing gusty winds and temporary VIS restrictions.
Tomorrow morning a brief period of MVFR CIGs is expected before a
return to VFR. Tried to time out most likely times of convection.
Additional TSRA will likely be in the region by the afternoon to
the end of the period, even if not at the terminals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 83 66 86 / 60 60 30 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 79 63 83 / 40 70 50 60
Oak Ridge, TN 63 79 63 82 / 40 70 50 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 78 60 81 / 30 70 40 70
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington