Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/04/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
743 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather with cooler onshore breezes through
Saturday. A slow-moving frontal boundary brings clouds and rain showers on
Sunday into early Monday, along with a period of cooler high
temperatures. Though clouds and off and on showers may linger in
southeast New England in vicinity of the slowing front, drier
weather prevails for most of interior Southern New England.
Turning warmer on Tuesday with abundant sunshine, and though
temperatures will be significantly cooler near the coast,
interior areas could see high temperatures reach near 80
degrees. Our next chance for rain is around midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
740 PM Update:
Tranquil early-evening underway across Southern New England,
governed by a 1024 mb high pressure area located in the waters
east of Ipswich Bay. This high pressure remains generally
stationary over at least the next 24 hours, maintaining dry
weather but with an increase in cirrus/high clouds as the
evening progresses. Used some of the RAP to show a decrease in
sky cover for most of the evening, thus pleasant conditions for
any Friday evening outdoor plans.
However the fly in the ointment arrives by the pre-dawn hrs and
mainly in eastern MA, in the form of marine-layer stratus which
is evident in satellite imagery over Nova Scotia and the Bay of
Fundy. These low clouds should gradually build/spread
southwestward through the Gulf of Maine into Cape Cod and the
adjacent eastern coastal waters toward daybreak. Think greatest
extent of low cloud cover should be restricted to the immediate
eastern MA coast, with scattered lower clouds further inland to
around central MA/RI by daybreak.
Low temps in the low-mid 40s seem on track for now with
expectation of generally clear skies for most of the evening,
with cooling likely not to be impeded by advancing stream of
high clouds.
Previous discussion:
Good amount of wind shear visible on the satellite this afternoon
with mid level clouds moving NE to SW and upper level cirrus moving
NW to SE this afternoon. As for those mid clouds, the May sun is
helping to increase our breaks of sun but partly cloudy is about the
best we can hope for in much of southern New England for the rest of
the day. By the overnight hours we`ll see some marginal clearing of
both mid and high clouds, especially after midnight, but fully clear
skies aren`t expected. Even so, given the high overhead and calm
winds, did lower temps a but to account for some potential to
radiate. Lows bottom in the low to mid 40s; right around average for
early May.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure nudges further south into New England from Nova Scotia
bringing continued quiet weather for the first half of the weekend.
This means continued cool, moist onshore flow from the northeast so
low clouds will be moving in from the northeast while high clouds
move in from the southwest. High temperatures won`t be too different
than Friday, with the warmest spot (the CT valley) in the upper 60s
and the coolest spot (eastern MA) in the mid 50s. Cloudcover
continues to increase overnight as deeper moisture (PWATs over 1
inch) move into western SNE on SW flow ahead of the approaching
system. However, rain should hold off until after 8am.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights:
* Cloudy, cooler with rain on Sunday into early Mon, with continued
lighter showers on Mon for southeast New England.
* Dry and turning mild on Tue, though cooler onshore flow near the
coasts. Spot 80s in the CT Valley?
* Next chance for rains around midweek (Wed/Thu), though still
unclear which day has the higher rain chances.
Details:
Sunday and Monday:
The 12z suite of guidance continues to come into better congruence
regarding our next chance for steadier light rains associated with a
passing frontal boundary and a rather disorganized 500 mb trough.
Chances for rain increase during the morning in most areas, with the
period of greatest rain chances focused during the Sunday afternoon
to early Monday morning period as the frontal boundary slowly shifts
eastward. With the front becoming parallel to the 500 mb flow with
time as we move into the early Monday period, expect lingering rain
showers during the morning hrs along the RI/MA South Coast, Cape Cod
and the Islands. Further north and west, we should see dry weather
but with a mix of clouds and sun. Overall not a soaking rain, but
enough to likely put a damper on outdoor plans for many on Sunday,
with rain showers lingering into Monday for the southeast New
England coastal areas. To that end, model-ensemble probabilistic QPF
assessment shows high (70-90%) probs of 24 hr rain totals over a
tenth of an inch, but lower to moderate (25-50%) probs for rain amts
at or over a half inch. Official forecast has rain amts around a
quarter to third of an inch.
Expect Sunday to be a cooler day with cloud cover and rains around,
with narrower diurnal range in high and low temps. Highs Sunday in
the mid 50s, and lows in the upper 40s to near 50. High temps are
more challenging on Monday with more clouds south of the Mass Pike
and especially near southern coast, with some sunny breaks further
north. Highs along the southern coast probably struggle to
reach 60, but you don`t have to go much further inland before
highs reach into the low to mid 70s; with lows in the mid 40s to
low 50s.
Tuesday:
High pressure over interior northern New England governs weather
conditions into Southern New England Tuesday, supplying dry weather
and mostly sunny conditions. An early look at model forecast
soundings in interior MA/CT show potential for temperatures to
overachieve guidance with progged deep mixing; with 850 mb temps
around +7 to nearly +10C, highs could reach around 80 degrees in the
CT Valley with readings well into the 70s eastward into RI and into
the MA coastal plain. Northeast flow near the coast will keep temps
several degrees cooler than well inland though, in the mid to upper
60s. Very difficult to show that level of granular detail given
model-resolution limitations at this forecast time horizon and
utilized some of the bias-corrected temperature fields given a
similar regime. Did note NBM was advertising some low PoPs in this
period for spot showers, but feel this is pretty overdone given
progged mixing.
Wednesday and Thursday:
Though this period offers the next best chance for rain associated
with an elongated warm front from low pressure over the Plains
states, there is more uncertainty in timing when chances are
greatest. Really will need those uncertainties to become more in
clearer focus before delving into specifics. Didn`t make too many
adjustments to NBM in this period, except capped PoPs at the higher
end of Chance range (40-50%) given stated timing uncertainties.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Tonight: High confidence.
VFR with increasing stream of high clouds. Could see patchy
mist/fog develop mainly in eastern/northeast MA but too unlikely
to mention in the TAF. Toward daybreak, advancing SCT-OVC
marine stratus at VFR/MVFR levels and while there`s stronger
confidence of MVFR bases over the Cape and Islands, it may lie
just offshore of the remaining portion of the eastern MA
coastline. Light E winds (light/variable at times), before
trending NE/ENE around 6-10 kt by daybreak.
Tomorrow...Moderate confidence.
Any lingering MVFR may improve to VFR for much of the day. Some
uncertainty here given we are still stuck in persistent onshore
easterly flow at 5-10 kts. Confidence higher for VFR away from
eastern MA coastline.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR, with marine stratus
nearing BOS after 09z; outside chance at MVFR bases early Sat
AM but should trend more BKN VFR levels. Light east winds
tonight (variable at times) before becoming ENE around 10 kt
starting early Sat.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR, light southerly winds
becoming light easterly early Sat AM.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Marine
This evening through Saturday night...
High pressure supports fairly calm conditions across the coastal
waters through Saturday night. Winds will prevail out of the
northeast from 10 to 15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots
possible. Seas generally 1 to 3 feet.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Rain showers likely.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance
of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/BW
NEAR TERM...Loconto/BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/BW
MARINE...Loconto/BW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
457 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front surging
southeastward through the area late this afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds and instances of large hail appear to
be the primary hazards. Isolated supercells capable of
producing all hazards may develop in advance of the front,
south of Highway 40 in CO/KS, between 4-8 pm MDT.
- Fire weather concerns return Monday through Thursday for most
of the Tri-State area, but favor along and south of I-70.
- Thunderstorms, a few of which may become strong to possibly
severe, will be possible Monday afternoon/evening.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 454 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the entire CWA.
Areas along/south of Highway 40 through 04z, with areas north
through 05z Saturday. All threats still in play, especially
damaging winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024
Not much has changed from previous thinking with two areas of
concern for the remainder of the afternoon and this evening.
Convective initiation has occurred in eastern Colorado near Las
Animas. HRRR shows this activity expanding into northeast
Colorado south of I-70 and northwest Kansas over the next few
hours. Latest analysis and forecast of SBCAPE shows 1500-2000
j/kg available along with effective bulk shear values of 40-50
kts. Those parameters should be sufficient for a few severe
thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado with any discrete supercell. Further
north, initiation has also occurred along the cold front in the
Nebraska panhandle. As the cold front surges south this evening,
convection will increase rapidly into a line capable of
producing damaging wind gusts. Given the same parameters above,
a few embedded cells in the line will also be capable of
producing large hail and a brief tornado. The front will exit
the area by around 06z ending the severe threat, though a few
showers and storms may linger past 06z in southern and eastern
areas. Mean precipitation amounts for the event range from
around a tenth to a quarter of an inch in Colorado, a quarter to
a half inch west of Highway 83, and around a half inch east of
Highway 83. The higher percentiles show locally up to 1 inch
possible in just about the entire area, with up to about 1.5
inches in northeast corner (McCook, Oberlin, Norton) and
southern areas (Tribune, Leoti). Winds will gradually diminish
overnight with low temperatures ranging from the lower 30s in
Colorado to the lower 40s in north central Kansas.
Saturday will be mostly sunny and breezy with just a hint of
shortwave ridging aloft ahead of weak shortwave in southeast
Colorado. High temperatures will be in the lower 60s. Saturday
night now looks dry with the shortwave staying south of the
area. There will be some increase in clouds with low
temperatures in the lower 40s. Models do hint at fog developing
in western portions of the area late Saturday night into Sunday
morning (along the Kansas and Colorado border area and
westward).
Southwest flow aloft continues on Sunday with embedded weak
waves which may result in a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon. There is a very narrow
corridor of weak instability forecast along the Kansas and
Colorado border area with a 100-200 j/kg currently indicated.
So, not expecting any severe storms should any develop. High
temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Shower and
thunderstorm chances increase going into Sunday night with
height falls ahead of the approaching trough and nocturnal low
level jet. MUCAPE increases overnight to 1500-2000 j/kg with
shear values of 40-50kts. So may see elevated thunderstorms late
with a risk for hail, but confidence is low at this time range.
Low temperatures will be in the 50s.
Main trough axis ejects out of the Rockies and across the plains
with a negative tilt on Monday. Surface low will deepen in the
Nebraska panhandle with the dry line trailing south into the
forecast area. The dry line will be the focus for convective
initiation in the afternoon and the models indicating the dry
line will likely be in eastern areas at least for a few hours
before moving east. Timing of initiation will be critical, but
if it happens before the dry line moves out may see a short
window for severe storms along/east of Highway 83. Instability
and shear will be more than adequate for a risk of large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes. West of the dry line may see few
wraparound high based showers, but no severe threat. However,
afternoon relative humidity values will be dropping to near
critical or critical values and wind speeds also appear to meet
critical thresholds for fire weather concerns. Precipitation
should be east of the area Monday night. High temperatures will
range from the upper 60s in Colorado to the upper 70s in north
central Kansas and lows Monday night in the upper 30s to lower
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024
Tuesday, an upper trough will be in place over the High Plains and
Central High Plains. Models continue to show variations in the
placement of a low pressure system ranging from Nebraska to the
Dakotas. Kept winds where they are for now due to continued
uncertainty on the location of the low, but wouldn`t be surprised if
later model runs start to bring up wind potential a bit. Zonal flow
will be in place over northwestern Kansas and eastern Colorado
through the day. Expected highs will range from the upper 60s in
portions of Yuma and Kit Carson counties to the mid to upper 70s
south of I-70.
Wednesday, a disturbance will move across the Dakotas and Nebraska.
We are currently forecast to stay dry through the daytime hours.
Some cooler air will move in, with highs ranging from the mid to
upper 60s in eastern Colorado to the upper 60s to low 70s in Kansas
and Nebraska. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, there
will be a 10-20% chance of a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly
for areas along and west of the Colorado state line.
Thursday, the disturbance will continue to move to the east, with
low end chances (10-30%) of shower and thunderstorm activity. For
the time being, areas west of a line from McCook to Tribune stand
the best chance of receiving precipitation with this system.
Expected temperatures will be in the 60s for highs and the 30s and
40s for lows.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 418 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024
For KGLD, the terminal is expected to see VCTS/TSRA through at
least 05z Saturday, but may persist through 11z. 5-6sm in rain
and VFR clouds attm. Winds, south 20-30kts through 02z then
north 20-40kts. By 11z, north at 10-15kts, the veering east by
20z. LLWS 02z-05z Saturday 280@40kts.
For KMCK, the terminal is expected to see VCTS/TSRA through at
least 05z Saturday. Potential to persist through 12z. 5-6sm in
rain and VFR clouds attm. Winds, southeast 20-30kts through 03z
Saturday, then northerly 20-40kts. LLWS 01z-03z Saturday
260@60kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
719 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 407 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to work their way through
the northern half of SE Texas this afternoon. Some of these have
produced heavier downpours as they have trained across already
saturated areas, which of course exacerbates the ongoing flooding in
locations that have previously received excessive rainfall. Current
SPC mesoanalysis shows an area of deep moisture convergence north of
I-10 along with a pocket of 1000-2000 J/kg elevated CAPE. Both deep
moisture convergence and CAPE appear to trend downward over the next
few hours, which should consequently lead to a downward trend in
showers and thunderstorms. A lull in activity is expected overnight
into Saturday with isolated showers/storms possible. At this point,
any additional rainfall will only delay improvement in the current
conditions. That being said, the decision has been made to maintain
the current Flood Watch through Sunday.
Going a little deeper into the overnight hours through Saturday
morning...Hi-res guidance has been pretty spread out run-to-run as
far as what development occurs during the overnight hours. Current
thoughts are that PWAT values remain in the 1.5-1.7" range south of
I-10 and 1.3-1.5" north of I-10. 500mb analysis shows another
potential shortwave moving across SE Texas during the overnight
hours with pockets of PVA. I don`t want to lean into the 18Z HRRR
suggesting that the area will remain rain-free overnight while the
12Z HRRR brings a few showers/storms through the area...so have
compromised by keeping PoPs on the lower end, and bearing in mind
the current setup with deep moisture and repeated shortwaves.
Saturday during the day appears to be fairly inactive as most of the
activity will fire off well west of our CWA.
Saturday night into Sunday will be the primary concern for the short-
term (beginning of long-term). Another shortwave and pockets of PVA
will track east across the area late Saturday night triggering an
MCS structure. The MCS is projected to arrive along the
western/northwestern CWA as early as Sunday morning (exact timing of
arrival is more uncertain at the moment) and will move across SE
Texas during the day Sunday. At the current moment the Flood Watch
goes through 1 PM Sunday; however, this may need to be reassessed as
this next system evolves. At this time additional rainfall totals of
1 to 3 inches and isolated higher amounts will be possible late
Saturday night into Sunday.
WPC keeps much of the area (with the exception of the immediate
coast) in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Saturday. Portions
of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods will be in a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall.
For Sunday, WPC places the majority of the area north of I-10 in a
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall with the rest of the area in a
Marginal Risk.
Impacts from excessive rainfall over the last few days are ongoing
and any additional rainfall will exacerbate these impacts. Please
continue to monitor the forecasts, follow instructions from local
officials, and have multiple ways to receive warnings.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 407 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
As mentioned in the short-term, the beginning of the long-term
period will feature a strong shortwave with an MCS that will impact
SE Texas during the day Sunday. At the surface, a weak warm front
will lift northward into SE Texas which will reinforce the warm and
moist environment. At this time, projected additional rainfall
amounts are in the 1-3" range with isolated higher amounts possible.
Once the MCS exits the region, relatively dry weather is expected
through much of the week. The forecast hazards shift from flooding
to heat. Ground moisture is expected to stick around for awhile,
and with 850mb temperatures reaching the 99th percentile
Wednesday/Thursday, the combination of heat and humidity will lead
to heat index values approaching or even reaching into the triple
digits by mid week. Daytime highs will be in the 90s with
dewpoints well in the 70s, creating hot and muggy conditions. As
mentioned in the previous forecast, these values are 5 to 10+
degrees above normal climatological values.
With recovery efforts likely continuing into next week, please be
mindful of the increasing temperatures and heat indices. Wear light-
colored/light weight clothing, drink plenty of water, take frequent
breaks, and remember to look before you lock!
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Much like last night, this afternoon`s activity has weakened/dissi-
pated with the loss of daytime heating this evening. But one of the
main differences tonight (from last night) is that the onshore flow
has been (and will likely continue to be) elevated through tonight.
This could delay the development of MVFR/IFR ceilings until maybe a
bit closer to sunrise. Additionally, did not add any mention of SH/
TS in this package. However, will be keeping close tabs on all that
activity currently out west, especially given the trends of late. S
to SE winds should eventually run from 6-12kts tonight...then 12-20
kts/G20-25kts by tomorrow afternoon (higher near the coast) as CIGs
become VFR. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 407 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Onshore winds have remained elevated this afternoon, remaining near
20 to 25 knots. With this expected to prevail for the next several
hours, in addition to seas reaching as high as 7 feet onshore, a
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until late this evening.
Winds will diminish somewhat heading into tomorrow, with moderate
onshore winds expected to prevail into next week. Scattered showers
and storms will be possible tomorrow, with a more widespread and
well organized line of storms arriving later on Sunday. This line of
storms could produce some strong wind gusts, as well as periods of
heavy rain.
Cady
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
There is ongoing river flooding over parts of Southeast Texas,
particularly along portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto rivers.
The following river points are at, or forecast to go to Major flood
stage:
- Trinity River (Madisonville): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage
- West Fork San Jacinto (Conroe): Major Flood Stage
- West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage
- East Fork San Jacinto (Cleveland): Major Flood Stage
- Caney Creek (Splendora): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Romayor): Minor forecast to go to Major
- Navasota River (Normangee): Minor forecast to go to Major
- Menard Creek (Rye): Moderate forecast to Major
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate forecast to go to Major
- East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate forecast to go to Major
- Peach Creek (Splendora): Moderate forecast to go to Major
- San Jacinto (Sheldon): Moderate forecast to go to Major
Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through flooded areas or roadways. Please monitor
updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat
continues.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 84 70 82 / 20 10 50 60
Houston (IAH) 72 84 72 82 / 20 10 30 50
Galveston (GLS) 73 80 73 80 / 20 10 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-212>214-300-313.
High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cady
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
753 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Normal to above normal temperatures through the week, with
highs in the 70s and low 80s, cooler near Lake Michigan. Lows
will be in the 50s and 60s.
- There are chances for showers and thunderstorms at times
between this afternoon and next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
The main surface low pressure associated with an upper level low
pressure shifts northeastward into south-central Canada and this
pushes a cold front and associated weaker area of vorticity into the
forecast area today. Fairly strong low lapse rates, surpassing 8
C/km are noted on the NAM12, but more like 7 C/km on the ECMWF, this
afternoon out in front of this eastward moving cold front. Model
discrepancy on placement of storm formation is likely as a result of
the NAM having a surface boundary advect eastward from Lake Erie on
east winds. The HRRR has a more subtle indication of this as well.
Cloud cover is a major factor in storm formation this afternoon
because the area is without substantial shear. So, storm
formation will have a better chance with reduced cloud cover.
The area yesterday had some shear to tap into and that likely
helped sustain updrafts for that one severe cell to produce
marginally severe winds and just sub-severe hail without
sufficient mid level lapse rates. Well, today, we are without
substantial shear and mid level lapse rates so agree with
today`s general thunder allotment from SPC. As a result, think
gusty winds to 40 or perhaps 50 mph may be possible with storms
and perhaps some heavy rain that could lead to ponding or
flooding with potentially training storms.
Models indicate the main temperature gradient associated with the
cold front separates from the moisture gradient and shrinks
westward, tonight. As such, could see some fog development,
especially in areas where cloud cover scatters and allows for some
radiative cooling. Areas west of I-69 would seem to be more
conducive to this outcome.
It is interesting to see the ECMWF keep its moisture farther to the
north and west in an area south of US-24 Saturday morning. Am a
little skeptical of its precip output with a lack of forcing around,
but will retain slight chance PoPs there. A somewhat better chance
for showers and storms occurs Saturday afternoon and evening as a
mix of sun and clouds allows for a reinvigoration of instability
across the area. The greatest chance for this appears to still be
south of US-24 and perhaps an axis west of US-31, but it`s much
drier over there. For whatever it`s worth, the ECMWF does not have
any afternoon showers/storms form Saturday afternoon, which is
different from the rest of the model suite. With the stalled out
baroclinic boundary to our west, models form a weak low pressure on
it and that arrives Saturday evening. There will likely be a
resurgence of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm along that boundary
with the return of forcing. Instability looks to stay lower than
1000 J/kg and perhaps even lower than 500 J/kg which would restrict
the thunder chance. Mid level lapse rates around 6 C/km may be able
to help sustain convective rain overnight into Sunday morning. Highs
in the 70s are expected across the area on Saturday.
The front moves eastward on Sunday and this likely restricts the
thunder chance until Tuesday. Although, times of rain are still
possible as weaker areas of vorticity travel along the front. As
such will populate some of the time with slight and chance PoPs in
the time periods where rain looks the most possible. Sunday and
Monday afternoons are the most likely chance PoP periods.
A slow lumbering upper low within the Western CONUS trough comes far
enough east to affect the area Tuesday. There is some disagreement
on medium range guidance if the stalled boundary can move northward
as a warm front allowing the area to be in the warm sector. The low
level jet is expected to move into the area Tuesday afternoon and
evening allowing 30 to 45 kts of effective shear to be an ingredient
for developed storms to tap into. With the placement of the front in
question, the chance for thunder is also in question. Instability
appears to be the limiting factor with 500 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE to
tap into. 60F sfc dew points and 10C+ 850 dew points will be most
possible south of US-24 or US-30, but the ECMWF actually has them
over the whole forecast area. Boundary-parallel flow appears
possible and various areas of upper jet support may support times of
heavy rain from training/ backbuilding convective rain. Continued
rain over this unsettled period is going to need to be watched as
saturated soils could lead to standing water, especially in the more
flood prone and urbanized areas where soil has been converted to
less permeable concrete.
Either way, both models have a break in precipitation Wednesday
morning. The question then becomes, when does the front move back
northward again to cause more precipitation. A better chance for
this appears to be Wednesday night. This period also appears to have
shear and MUCAPE to tap into allowing for the possibility of more
showers and thunderstorms that could be severe and produce heavy
rain.
Chances for rain appear to be lower Thursday with instability being
restricted to less than 500 J/kg. Shear is around though so if any
thunderstorms are able to form in that meager environment, severe
weather could be possible. Still a better chance for drier weather
occurs Friday with little to no instability and shear. However, the
upper low pressure center nearby may allow for a light shower still.
Friday also sees a return to mid to upper 60s for highs, which is
normal to slightly below normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
VFR conditions should prevail through most of the forecast
period. However, MVFR vsbys possible for KSBN in mist between
12z and 15z Sat and KFWA after 18z Saturday with any afternoon
rain/thunderstorms.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Andersen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
949 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Rest of tonight...
Evening RAP analysis/GOES East water vapor imagery indicate
shortwave axis moving through the northeastern portions of the
region, with rain chances quickly dwindling. In the wake, there is
some descent & GOES East total precipitable water (PWs) indicate
some drying along the Gulf Coast & to the west. 00Z soundings,
especially at SHV, indicate drying in the 700-300mb layer, with
lowered mean RH`s in this layer progged to spread eastward. This
will continue to clear out cloudiness. With continued moist
southerly flow gradually decoupling, lows falling into the low-
mid 60s, crossover temps will reach nearly 3-6 degrees. This
pattern supports low stratus & dense fog developing after
midnight across the region. HREF probs >10-30% are widespread &
convective allowing models (CAMs) indicate potential for areas of
dense fog across the Gulf Coast region. There could be two zones
of concern for dense fog, northwest of the Natchez Trace & to the
southeast, with some decreased coverage along the Natchez Trace &
I-55 corridor. Decided to not get too specific & went ahead with
an areawide "Elevated" HWO graphic / Dense Fog advisory. The
advisory runs from just after midnight through 9AM Saturday.
Updates are out. /DC/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Tonight through Sunday night...Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occuring across much of the area this afternoon,
and this will continue before ending from west to east early this
evening. Skies may clear some overnight, and with good radiational
cooling patchy areas of dense fog will be possible early on
Saturday. An HWO graphic will be issued for this potential. Another
short wave will move into the area Saturday afternoon and this will
kick off another round of shower`s and storms. With a little better
lapse rate/instability on Saturday, a strong to possibly severe
storm cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon. Little will change on
Sunday as moisture continues and yet another in a series of short
waves move across the area. Drier air begins to move into the area
Sunday night. Highs through the weekend will be in the 80s, with
overnight lows in the mid 60s./15/
Monday into Friday...the overall forecast for next week remains
similar. Focus will be well above normal/heat early into mid week,
potential for severe storms mainly in the Thu-Fri periods, then
followed by a marked cool down. The driver for the increasing warmth
will be with a pattern shift to more of a ridge influence with the
ridge axis over us Mon, then the ridge shifting eastward as we see a
powerful system dive across the Rockies and Central Plains. We will
be on the western periphery of the low level ridge/high and that
will provide a decent S/SW lower level flow to bring in moisture and
those well above normal lower level temps. Additionally, we will see
capping in play which will keep rain/storm chances more in check.
There`s some 20-30% type PoPs for Mon-Wed, but this is more due to
model variability and I expect this to lower some. The exception
could be in the far N, where more proximity to the better lift could
allow for better chances.
As for severe weather potential...this is mainly looking like
potential for a round or two sometime in the Thu/Fri periods. PoPs
have come in higher which fits and will follow. Look for chances to
continue to increase for a particular period as better timing starts
to work itself out. Like yesterday and prev guidance, uncertainty is
pretty decent on specifics and timing, which is often the case at
day 6-7. However, the pattern and consistency for the needed
ingredients (instability, steep lapse rates, moisture, shear, lift)
continue to show up. I`ll also add, later Wed night is a period to
watch as well as there will likely be severe activity on-going to
our NW/N which could migrate down into some of our northern area.
Lastly, the ingredients I noted are all reaching very solid levels
and fitting of a potentially upper end type event(s). Details will
determine the type of severe, but at this time, confidence is on
wind/hail.
In the wake of this system, the trends are for a solid front/trough
passage for the weekend which would bring much cooler conditions to
the area. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Other than some light SHRA lingering at GTR/MEI, expect clearing
over the next hour. Expect a mixed bag of IFR-LIFR flight
categories overnight, with worst flight categorical restrictions
from low stratus & some dense fog across the area. Onset timing
looks to be around 04/07-09Z before lifting to VFR around
07/14-16Z. Light southerly sfc winds will persist the next 24
hours, sustained up to 10mph & brief higher gusts. Some SHRA & iso
TSRA are psbl Saturday aftn, but confidence is too low to
introduce in the 00Z TAF cycle. /DC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 64 86 66 83 / 10 40 30 50
Meridian 63 88 65 87 / 20 40 30 40
Vicksburg 64 86 67 83 / 10 40 30 50
Hattiesburg 65 88 66 87 / 0 30 10 30
Natchez 64 86 65 81 / 0 40 30 50
Greenville 66 84 67 80 / 10 40 40 60
Greenwood 65 84 67 83 / 10 40 40 70
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ007>009-
015-016-023>026.
AR...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
DC/CME/DC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
621 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Area radar this afternoon shows scattered showers and
thunderstorms spreading across the region from the west. Most of
today`s precip has fallen across SE TX and SW LA, with area
mesonet stations showing around 0.75-2.00" of rain has fallen
in these regions. CAMs have largely handled today`s system poorly
however, the HRRR seems to have gotten a better handle on it over
the last couple of runs and continues to show most of this
activity ending between 6 and 8 PM this evening. Overnight, dry
weather is expected along with another round of patchy fog,
especially across those areas that saw a good bit of rain today.
Moving into the weekend, rain chances continue. Tomorrow, another
shortwave is expected to pass overhead and initialize scattered
showers by the late morning hours. POPs tomorrow are only in the
20-40% range, with better chances north of I-10, and overall
coverage should be much less than the last couple of days. Rain
chances then ramp up again for the second half of the weekend as a
second, more robust, shortwave slides overhead and passes a bit
further to the south that Saturday`s shortwave. This may bring a
similar set up to today`s convection, with elevated rain chances
in the 40-60% range on tap area-wide. Fortunately, no severe
weather is anticipated this weekend however, we will have to keep
an eye on the flooding risk as much of the forecast area has
already received significant rainfall over the last couple of
days.
Temperature wise, we will see near seasonal daytime highs over the
weekend, warming into the low to mid 80s area-wide both days.
Overnight, lows will continue to fall into the upper 60s inland
and low to mid 70s along and south of I-10.
17
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
As we head into the work week small rain chances continue for
Monday followed by a reprieve from the wet weather through the
mid-week. POPs on Monday are only around 15-30% at best, with
mainly isolated afternoon activity anticipated. Tuesday through
Thursday a drier pattern is expected as a weak midlevel ridge
builds over the Gulf Coast and offers a bit of drier air aloft to
keep showers at bay. Finally by Friday we may see a return of
shower activity as some long range models are now pointing to a
weak frontal passage. This is still a ways out however, and
changes to the progression of this front are likely.
Temperature wise next week will bring a gradual warming trend
with highs on Mon in the mid 80s warming into the mid to upper 80s
on Tuesday and into the upper 80s to lower 90s from Wednesday and
beyond. Overnight, lows in the low to mid 70s can be expected.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
A few showers or storms will be possible until sunset mainly for
terminals along the I-10 corridor. Otherwise, starting out with
VFR conditions.
Once again expecting low clouds and patchy fog to form around
04/06z and persist into the overnight with mainly MVFR conditions,
although some brief IFR conditions can be ruled out.
Patchy fog and low clouds will lift during the morning hours, with
VFR conditions expected by 04/18z. Shower and storm activity looks
to be a lot less for Saturday, and therefore, will just mention
VCSH and VCTS for terminals.
Rua
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into this
evening across the coastal waters and coastal lakes/bays. In
addition, moderate onshore flow will also persist, and small
craft should continue to exercise caution through tonight. Tonight,
rain will end however, fog is expected to develop closer to
sunrise especially along and near the coastline. Light onshore
flow and low seas will prevail through the rest of the upcoming
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 65 85 67 82 / 10 40 20 60
LCH 69 83 70 83 / 10 30 10 40
LFT 70 83 71 85 / 10 20 10 30
BPT 71 83 72 83 / 20 30 10 40
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>032-141.
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-
515-516.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
925 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Main concern overnight is fog development. Clouds are moving off
to the NE and some clearing has already occurred across western
sections of the Mid-South. Most of the area has seen at least
some rain during the last 24 hours and little if any drying
occurred today. Dewpoint depressions have already fallen to 1
degree or less over much of the Mid-South. Low temps will crash
through the crossover temp as well. The latest HRRR model runs
have been indicating at least areas of dense fog as well. Given
all this evidence have decided to go ahead and issue a Dense Fog
Advisory for the entire Mid-South from 1 am to 9 am Saturday.
Also, cut pops for the remainder of the night.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Active weather will persist across the Mid-South over the next 7
days or so. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day as
upper level disturbances move through. There is the potential for
organized weather towards the middle of next week as a low
pressure system moves into the region. Temperatures will likely
remain near normal due to clouds and storms each day. Expect highs
around in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
A mostly dry day across the Mid-South at this hour. Two decaying
MCSs moved into the area this afternoon, but didn`t produce much
convective activity as previous model guidance suggested. The
most active weather is currently near the Alabama and Mississippi
stateline, where a cluster of slow-moving strong storms have
congealed. Hi-res models continue to struggle with shower and
thunderstorm coverage across the region. The latest thinking is
that this activity will continue to slowly lift northeast through
sundown and taper off after sundown with the loss of daytime
heating.
Weak southwest flow aloft will persist through early next week.
This will allow several weak perturbations to translate through
the region. This weather pattern will continue to pose a
challenge for nearly all model guidance, as steering flow will be
weak and not well resolved. Using a more probabilistic approach
is likely the best scenario here, however the 12Z HREF is not
showing much in the way of precipitation for Saturday. Nonetheless,
went with the NBM, which keeps 40 to 60 PoPs over the Mid-South
tomorrow afternoon. Convective coverage looks a bit better on
Sunday as a weak cold front and shortwave move into the region.
Organized weather appears more likely by the middle of next week,
as a large upper low ejects through the Central Plains. Subtle
height falls will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday, where a Day
5 Slight Risk has been introduced north of I-40. A better chance
of strong to severe storms appears to be next Wednesday into
Thursday, where a surface low will track to our northwest. Still
a bit early to sort out specific details, as synoptic model
guidance still has timing and feature differences. A cold front
looks to move through by late week and bring cooler and drier air
to the region for next weekend.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Occasional MVFR CIGS will linger across the airspace this
evening. Later tonight, CIGS will eventually lower to IFR with the
potential for reduced VIS to MVFR to IFR at various terminals.
There is some potential that VIS will lower to LIFR conditions per
latest guidance, but confidence in this scenario is low for now.
Eventual improvement to VFR is expected across the airspace
by late tomorrow morning or afternoon.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-
020>024.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JPR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
657 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another chance for showers and possible thunderstorms exists this
evening through Saturday morning.
- Dry Saturday afternoon through the rest of the weekend with warmer
temperatures expected Sunday.
- Unsettled weather pattern next week with more rain chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
A beautiful Friday has unfolded as sunny skies have allowed
temperatures to rise into the 60s across most of the area. Even a
few 70s have been observed in southern MN and western WI. It is a
little breezy across WI, likely owing to the confluent surface
pressure gradient. Clouds are in the process of moving in from the
west, however, as our next shortwave arrives tonight. An isolated
thunderstorm may occur later this afternoon across western MN but
showers are expected to move in from west to east this evening
through Saturday morning. They will eventually move east by Saturday
afternoon, leaving the remainder of the weekend dry. CAMs have been
picking up on the possibility of two heavier areas of rainfall, one
from western to central MN and the other in southern to southeastern
MN. In these locations, rainfall has a good chance of exceeding 0.5"
while a minima of 0.1-0.2" would be in between. The southern band
also looks to be convective in nature (judging from non-zero CAPE in
RAP soundings) so perhaps a lightning strike or two could occur
during Saturday morning. The rest of Saturday looks decent, albeit a
bit cooler as clouds will be in the process of clearing. Highs are
forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunday still looks great
with sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Monday also continues to look warm (highs in the low to mid 70s)
but, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as we
progress through the day. Ensemble guidance forecasts a very strong,
negatively-tilted trough to eject east of the Rockies (and into the
Southern/Central Plains) during Monday. An expansive, moist warm
sector created ahead of the trough over the Plains should allow for
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Forecast models show this activity extending
all the way north into the Dakotas ahead of a cold front that stems
from a deepening surface low in the Northern High Plains. This band
of precip is forecast to move east through our region Monday night
into Tuesday. While the strongest convection will likely be in the
Central Plains, a couple of stronger storms will not be out of the
question due to probable strong vertical wind shear and non-zero
CAPE. How strong and numerous those storms are will be largely
dependent on how much CAPE can be realized, though. The grand
ensemble advertises another good chance of at least an accumulating,
widespread rain. Western and southern MN currently have a 50% chance
of seeing at least 1" of rainfall through Tuesday afternoon. Winds
should also be very breezy Monday into Wednesday as NAEFS and EPS
ensembles show the surface low deepening enough to achieve
climatologically minimum mean SLP over the Northern High Plains.
After Tuesday, it seems like precipitation chances will persist for
the majority of next week as the upper-level low cuts off and hangs
out over the northern CONUS before moving east. We can expect at
least periods of persistent clouds and cooler temperatures
underneath the cool air of the cyclonic flow center.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
A cold front is gradually progressing southeastward this
evening, bringing a swath of rain/virga and a smaller area of
weakening CB/TS across east-central MN. Winds will quickly
shift out of the NW behind this front, but remain around
5-10kts for most. Cigs will slowly fill in and lower throughout
the night as the next rainmaker moves through from west to east.
Most sites will drop to MVFR, with pockets of VFR possible
while the main period of rain is underway. Terminals will see a
gradual improvement of conditions throughout tomorrow, with VFR
likely by tomorrow night for all sites.
KMSP...The front is knocking on the door-step, with a quick wind
change expected after its passage. Any rain associated this
evening should stay north and west of MSP, however brief periods
of sprinkles is not out of the question. Similar to today,
winds will become gusty to 20kts tomorrow afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 15-20G25-30kts.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to
cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to
become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each
rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along
with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries
and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next
week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching
minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already
there).
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...BED
HYDROLOGY...CCS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
908 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024
Cold front on track to bring widespread rain, cooler temperatures,
and gusty winds this weekend. Dry weather returns Sunday with a
gradual warming trend through next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024
The forecast for the incoming low pressure system remains largely on
track with minimal changes. HRRR guidance shows the low slowing down
slightly with rain arrival times pushes back by an hour or two. Rain
will arrive during the early to late morning hours moving north to
south. Based on HRRR guidance, the most likely arrival times are 3AM-
5AM for the North Bay, 7AM-10AM for the East Bay and South Bay, and
8AM-11AM for the Central Coast. Rainfall totals look largely the
same with between 0.5-1.0 inches expected in the Bay Area and 0.2-
0.5 inches expected in portions of the Central Coast. Locally higher
precipitation totals are expected in the coastal North Bay mountains
and the Santa Cruz mountains. Gusty winds will extend inland from
the coast as the system passes with gusts between 25-30 mph
possible. Trend for below average daytime and overnight temperatures
tomorrow through the early work week remains on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024
Mostly clear skies over the region today ahead of the next cold
front. Ample cloud cover associated with the front now moving into
the northern portions of the state will continue to move southward
through tonight. Areas of light rainfall are expected to begin
early Saturday morning along favored west-facing upslope areas
in the coastal ranges as moist low-level westerly flow increases
ahead of the front. Much of the surface front should be through
the Bay Area by mid-morning, and late morning for areas further
south along the Central Coast. Aided by a robust 150 kt NW-SE
oriented jet on the back side of the low, this will be a rather
quick-moving front with little-to-no chance of stalling. However,
this jet and continued support of an enhanced northwesterly Eastern
Pacific jet along the West Coast will support gusty northwest
winds to 25-35 mph along coastal areas and NW-SE oriented valleys
through the weekend. Rainfall amounts Saturday will be in the ball
park of 0.4-0.75" for most locations, with a few seeing upwards of
1-1.25" in the coastal ranges of the North Bay and the Santa Cruz
Mtns.
Behind the cold front Saturday afternoon and evening, there is a
slight chance for isolated thunderstorms across the area.
Scattered showers will persist into Saturday evening, but
conditions appear favorable for a few locally strong updrafts that
would support a rumble of thunder or two, as well as small hail.
Deep convection would not be supported, given limited cooling
aloft, promoting a more stable environment aloft. Thus, any storms
that do develop would be relatively short-lived. Really nothing
out of the ordinary for us during these typical cold core systems,
just more resemblant of a system we`d see in January rather than
May.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024
Sunday looks to be on the drier side with the low departing.
Temperatures the next few days will be on the cool side with
afternoon high temps dropping by as much as 18 degrees for inland
locations. Low temps Sunday morning will be in the 40s for most,
with a few pockets of upper 30s for inland and high elevation
areas. Otherwise, a warm up is on tap for the rest of next week as
the pattern becomes more ridge-dominant. By Wednesday, expect
afternoon highs in the 70s to near 80, and the mid-to-upper 60s
along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024
VFR lasts until the early to mid evening for most terminals before
IFR/LIFR level clouds move inland. Winds stay W/NW and remain
gusty through the evening. As stratus approaches in the evening,
winds become light to moderate, and slowly turn to become more
S/SW ahead of the approaching low pressure system. By the mid
morning hours of Saturday, most terminals will see winds increase
once more to become breezy and gusty out of the SW, and rain
begins, lowering visibilities at terminals. Cloud decks are
expected to improve to become IFR/MVFR as the rain approaches.
Rain continues into Saturday afternoon before dissipating, with
winds turning to become N/NW and breezy.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions last through the evening, with
strong wings gusting to around 35 knots expected. Stratus makes
moves inland in the late evening, bringing IFR conditions as winds
reduce. Winds reduce further into the night and turn
southwesterly. These winds become gusty as the rain arrives early
Saturday morning with MVFR CIGs and slight reductions in
visibilty.Winds turn to become W/NW in the later morning, but
rain lasts through the afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/LIFR CIGs push inland in the early
evening. IFR/LIFR CIGs last through the majority of the overnight
hours with lighter winds. As the rain band arrives, expect CIGs
lift to become IFR/MVFR late Saturday morning. Gusty westerly
winds build along the rain band.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 907 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024
Expect breezy to gusty northwest winds to continue with gale
force gusts possible over the southernmost zones. This evening, a
low pressure system and associated cold front will arrive from the
north, bringing rain and moderate to fresh breezes across the
waters. Winds will turn briefly southwesterly ahead of the system
early Saturday morning, but turn to become northwesterly once more
in the late part of Saturday morning. Rain ceases late in the day
Saturday, and winds ease to become moderate into the new
workweek.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon
Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kennedy
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
851 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue to slowly move from SW to NE
at this hour. The majority of the activity is south of I-40. Lightning
activity is coming down as we`ve lost the daytime heating to
really fuel the storms. The latest RAP guidance shows the best
surface-based instability remains over our SW counties, but that
value of 1500 J/Kg is much lower than earlier and is dropping as
is evident on radar; the storms over that area are quickly dying
out. With that, do expect widespread thunderstorm activity to
greatly dwindle down overnight. We are monitoring the potential
for flooding as some of these storms have dumped very heavy rain
over a short period of time. If you`re out driving tonight in any
of the areas that have received rain today, be careful and
watchful for ponding along roadways.
The latest CAMs show on and off showers continuing through the
overnight period tonight with a few rumbles of thunder here and
there. Saturday looks more of the same as today, but perhaps less
widespread. We don`t have much forcing to really help storms
get going tomorrow, but there will be plenty of instability. I`d
call tomorrow`s storms garden variety - pop-up, drop some heavy
rain and produce some lightning, maybe even a gust to 30 or 40mph
or so, then be done. It will also be hit-or-miss on who will see
these storms vs who doesn`t. Just in case, be ready to move any
outdoor plans temporarily indoors tomorrow. Outside of
thunderstorm chances, Saturday highs will be near 80 for most.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
There are just so many ways one can state that an unsettled
weather pattern will persist through this entire forecast period.
Looking at the short term part, maybe some breaks in potential
rounds of showers and storms, earlier this afternoon and across
locations around and west of I-65 corridor on Saturday afternoon.
Yes, a few strong storms may be possible at times, but really not
expecting any organized severe storm potential. Lows tonight will be
seasonably mild in low to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will also be
above seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s
higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Looking into a little bit more detail here, mid state will remain
in the warm sector of synoptic surface frontal systems to our west
and north with prevalence of southwesterly flow aloft and
potentially more upper level disturbance passages than one can
count embedded within this flow aiding in these rounds of convective
developments. Just like in the short term, some strong storms may be
possible at times, but all in all, really not expecting any
organized severe storm potential at this time. The only exception to
this is the hinting by SPC in its latest Day Five Outlook of strong
convection being possible near Land of the Lakes Region on Tuesday.
Temperatures will continue to be seasonably warm. As for all these
rounds of showers and storms expected, total rainfall amounts this
afternoon through Friday afternoon are expected to generally range
2.5" to 3.5."
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across Middle TN.
The threat will mainly be just to the south and east of Nashville
through 03z. IFR/LIFR conditions in any thunderstorms with heavy
rain, low vis, and low cigs. Things dry out after 03z and there is
a slight chance for light showers overnight. Scattered activity
will develop again tomorrow after 16z but should be less
widespread than today. Light southerly winds under 6 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 66 82 65 86 / 40 80 50 70
Clarksville 64 80 65 83 / 40 60 40 70
Crossville 61 74 60 79 / 60 90 50 80
Columbia 64 80 63 85 / 60 80 50 80
Cookeville 63 76 62 80 / 50 90 50 80
Jamestown 61 76 60 81 / 60 90 50 80
Lawrenceburg 64 79 63 84 / 60 80 50 80
Murfreesboro 64 79 63 85 / 50 80 50 80
Waverly 64 80 64 84 / 50 70 50 70
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Mueller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
822 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon and
through the evening over the eastern plains. Wind gusts in
excess of 60 mph, hail of up to 2 inches in diameter possible.
A brief landspout or weak tornado cannot be ruled out.
- A cold front will move through later this evening over the
plains, with colder temperatures and gusty winds out of the
northeast behind it.
- General thunderstorms are possible elsewhere over the plains
and over the eastern mountains, which will continue throughout
the night for some areas, mainly over the far southeastern
plains and Raton Mesa area.
- Frost conditions will be possible tonight over El Paso County.
- Increasing winds and fire danger early next week with a
trend towards cooler and wetter conditions for late week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024
Have allowed the Red Flag Warning to expire this past hour, as
winds continue to diminish and RH values improve.
Have kept the Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect this evening,
as additional strong to severe storms remain possible.
Southward moving strong cold front will encounter stronger south
southeast winds along with dewpoint air still in the 40s to low
50s. This should allow at least isolated thunderstorm
development, some of which will still be capable of producing
hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts to 60 mph. Highest
chances for this to occur late this evening, is along and
southeast of a Kim to Lamar line. Any remaining development
should be southeast of the CWA by around the midnight time
frame.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024
Currently and through tonight...
A major shortwave trough is continuing to approach the region, with
the development of a lee-side low by later in the afternoon as the
trough axis moves overhead. As this pushes out over the plains a
slightly deepens, it will force a cold frontal boundary to move down
from the north over the plains. A dryline is going to establish
itself, where there are currently 50+ dewpoints over northeastern
New Mexico that will make their way up over far southeastern
Colorado later this afternoon, this will act as a triggering
mechanism for pre-frontal convective development once the cap
completely erodes and the convective temp is achieved, which may
turn severe given the higher dewpoints and thus increased low-level
instability. An increasing low-level jet out out of the southwest
will also increase shear necessary for further updraft enhancement
and may allow for severe thunderstorm development for the next
couple of hours, mainly over Las Animas County and east. A consensus
of the latest high res guidance has the front beginning to move over
northern El Paso County by as early as 7 to 8 PM, and then push
through the CWA by around midnight. The timing of the front could be
sooner, depending on whether or not if it is accelerated by outflow
from convection that develops along and behind the boundary.
Currently, there have already been multiple cells that have
initiated over this area, which will likely continue to develop as
the lower levels further destabilize by early evening as the low-
level jet increases with effective shear of a magnitude around 30
kts or greater. MLCAPE is also going to increase to 1000 J/kg or
greater, especially over Prowers and Baca counties, mainly after
4pm. With this, the potential for thunderstorms becoming severe will
increase going into the later afternoon/early evening hours,
especially anywhere from La Junta to Kim, and eastward. There are
also going to be general thunderstorms possible over the eastern
mountains and along portions of the I-25 corridor, mainly south of
Pueblo County, that will continue to move off to the east-northeast
after development. Dry conditions, with low relative humidity values
and gusty southwesterly winds will continue to keep fire weather
conditions going until around 9 PM in the San Luis Valley, although
RH values should recover enough to allow the Red Flag Warning to
come down by this time.
The latest CAM guidance and HREF helicity tracks favor development
of stronger, and possibly severe, cells over Prowers and Baca
counties between 6 to 8 PM. In addition, the latest HRRR model also
puts the development of a cell over Baca, with easterly winds
turning into it at 00Z (7 PM), suggesting that there could be
increased SRH values right around this time and possible supercell
development, with the capabilities of producing a brief landspout
and/or weak tornado. It also has something similar right around the
same time over Prowers County, as well as the development of a
strong cell right on the edge of northeastern Kiowa County. The
NAM4km Nest has also been persistent with the past couple of runs of
having a pre-frontal cell develop with over the northwestern Baca
County/Bent County and then move into Prowers County right around
the same time.
Colder air advection moving in behind the frontal passage that will
occur later this evening will allow for temperatures to continue to
drop, especially as skies further clear. This will allow for
temperatures over El Paso County to drop to near, or below, the
freezing mark. Due to this, there will likely be some areas of
frost. Stratus will also develop, mainly along the I-25 corridor
from Pueblo County and northward to Monument. There could still be
some showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, continuing into the early
morning hours of tomorrow. As the lower levels continue to
stabilize, showers will also continue to diminish and move
southeastward and out of the CWA towards daybreak. Lows will bottom
out into the 30s to low 40s over most of the plains, and generally
in the upper teens and 20s for high country.
Tomorrow...
With colder air already in place, it will be more stable over the
plains, and notably cooler. Highs will likely remain in the 60s over
a majority of the plains and San Luis Valley, and only 40s to 50s
for the higher terrain. With residual moisture, and increasing mid-
level flow out of the southwest coupled with orographic lifting,
there will be showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon
hours over the higher terrain. This will get pushed out over the
plains by later in the day. These should be more of your "garden
variety" type thunderstorms, although there could be an isolated
storm or two that is on the stronger side. With more of an inverted-
v profile, some of these storms may result in some gusty outflow
winds to 50 mph or greater, and there could be hail up to 1/2 inch
with the stronger storms. The plains will likely remain dry with
more stable air in place, although a few of the showers/storms could
move out over the adjacent plains and portions of the I-25 corridor.
-Stewey
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024
Weak wave in southwest flow ejects across CO Saturday evening with
cool stable upslope flow maintaining across the plains. A few
showers may drift off into the adjacent plains but they should
diminish as the move off the mountains into the more stable airmass.
Have trimmed eastward extent of pops into the I-25 corridor during
the evening. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish across the
mountains behind this feature in the evening but could regenerate
across the far eastern plains late Saturday night as the low level
jet increases. Any isolated nocturnal convection will have limited
CAPE resulting in some weak elevated showers/thunderstorms into
Sunday morning.
Temperatures then rebound for Sunday as southerly flow increases
across the region ahead of the next upper low moving into the Great
Basin. Will need to watch the San Luis Valley for potential Critical
Fire Weather conditions until green up occurs. For now, coverage and
magnitude looks too limited with RH the most limiting factor for
Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop across the
Continental Divide as moisture increases ahead of the upper low. Out
east it remains largely dry. Will need to monitor the position of
the dry line but for now dew point return and CAPE looks limited
with little to no initiation along the boundary in the afternoon.
Upper low lifts out across northern CO Sunday night and Monday. With
the more northern storm track, this puts southern CO under the dry
and windy region of the storm. Latest NBM shows potential for wind
gusts greater than 50 mph in the 70-90+ percentile, especially along
and south of highway 50 Monday morning. We could be looking at brief
near high wind potential Sunday morning if we can mix 50-60 kts down
to the surface Sunday morning as the cold front moves through. In
spite of the cool down, it will be very dry and likely a critical
fire weather day for the San Luis Valley and southern portions of
the southeast plains where fuels are still critical. The Continental
Divide will pick up some snow Sunday night through Monday morning
with a diminishing trend in the afternoon as the storm ejects to the
northeast.
The windy and mostly dry pattern continues for Tues and Wednesday
with temperatures rebounding. Then we trend towards a cooler and
potentially wetter pattern as low pressure stalls out over the
western U.S. and a cold front moves through the plains bringing post
frontal upslope flow Thurs into next weekend. Thursday could
potentially be the coolest and wettest day with snow levels dropping
to around 7000 feet across the southeast mountains. Still some
details to resolve on the track and strength of the low which will
drive the degree of upslope and precipitation amounts. EC is weaker
with the upper low and magnitude of upslope, and therefore has less
QPF/snow. Probabilities of greater than 3" of snow accumulation is
less than 30 across all but the central mountains from the National
Blend of Models. Central mountains fair a little better with
probabilities for up to 6 inches up to 40%. This will bear watching
as details become more certain. -KT
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for KALS and KPUB, and mostly
for KCOS, throughout the forecast period. There will be some lower
decks moving in later which will reduce CIGs to MVFR criteria during
the morning hours at KCOS from approximately 11 to 13Z. CIGs will
should remain elevated enough to be above MVFR criteria for KPUB
from 13 to 15Z. FROPA will occur for KCOS around 01Z and KPUB around
02Z, which will result in a windshift with gusty NE`ly winds
thereafter, with gusts close to 40 kts at both terminals. Winds will
be synoptically influenced at all terminals. There is very low
confidence (less than 10 percent) of SHRA or possibly TSRA to be in
the vicinity of KCOS and KPUB right around the time of FROPA,
although due to the lack of confidence, this was left out of the
TAF. Winds will become more diurnally influenced towards the end of
the forecast period as they further weaken. -Stewey
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for
COZ084-085.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ
SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...STEWARD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
338 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures continue today, with light winds. Active weather
returns tomorrow with a storm system bringing gusty to strong winds
along with valley rain and mountain snow, with conditions slowly
improving Sunday. For next week, a slow warming trend with low
chances for precipitation remains in the forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY: The latest RAP analysis shows the CWA underneath a
weak upper air ridge this afternoon with a pretty robust upper air
low residing over the Pacific Ocean west of the U.S./Canada border.
Current surface observations report back mostly light and variable
winds with a few breezy gusts out of the east in some locations.
Model guidance then forecasts the low to move southeast towards
the U.S. coast going into the night and pushing the ridge to the
east. At the surface, daytime high temperatures expect to range
between the 60s to the lower 70s with cooler highs in the Sierra
Crest. While most of the region expects to stay dry, the HREF
shows a 10-20% probability for an isolated shower or two later
this afternoon/evening in Mono County and the bordering areas
though not much moisture is expected with these showers.
THE WEEKEND STORM: Forecast guidance projects the upper air low
continuing a progression towards the CWA throughout Saturday and
then passing over the northern portion of the CWA on Saturday Night
and going into Sunday morning. By late Sunday evening, the low is
forecast to have moved east of the CWA allowing for a north-
northwesterly flow over the CWA going through the night. With this
upper air pattern, a low pressure system looks to move east-
southeastward across OR on Saturday and make its way over northern
UT by Sunday morning. This will cause a quick moving cold front
to begin to sweep across the CWA on early Saturday morning. This
front will cause the region to see two impactful weather concerns
for Saturday: gusty to strong southwesterly winds along with
winter-like precipitation including accumulating mountain snow and
valley rain.
* Winds: Upon looking at the latest ECMWF EFI (Extreme Forecast
Index) for wind gusts on Saturday, there is a "bulls-eye" of
0.90- 0.99 values in southern portions of the region (southern
Lyon, Mineral, and Mono counties) that slowly lowers going
northward into the CWA. There is a second maximum seen in
northern Washoe county as well of 0.8-0.9. What this means is
that there is a really good signal for strong (~60+ mph) wind
gusts within the region on Saturday. Please refer to the High
Wind Warning as well as the Wind Advisories for more detailed
information on expected maximum wind gust values as well as
locations. There is also information on strong winds contained
within the Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning that
should be referenced as well. These winds will cause hazardous
traveling conditions including potential blowing dust beginning
on Saturday morning and going into the evening. Travelers are
encouraged to check conditions within the region be embarking
on their journeys. The winds look to decrease a bit by late
Saturday night/early Sunday morning as the system moves more
eastward away from the CWA.
* Snow and Rain: With the latest QPF updates, snow totals
particularly for the Sierra Crest and Tahoe Basin have come up a
bit on Saturday and going into Sunday. As a result, the Winter
Weather Advisory on Saturday and Sunday for the Lake Tahoe Area
and Mono County has been upgraded to the first ever NWS Reno
Winter Storm Warning issued for the month of May in recent
history. Lassen, Eastern Sierra and Eastern Plumas counties
remain in the Winter Weather Advisory Please refer to the Winter
Weather Advisory and the Winter Storm Warning for more details
such as timing, locations, and forecast snowfall amounts for the
these areas above 5000 feet. Weather.gov/rev/winter also is a
source for this information along with the latest Winter Storm
Severity Index (WSSI) which shows moderate to major impacts
along the Sierra Crest and some of the mountain passes. The
latest HREF is showing the potential for 1-2 inch per hour
snowfall rates in the afternoon and evening which is not very
common to see this time of year. Once again, travelers should be
prepared due to the expected hazardous traveling conditions in
these areas that will include blowing snow (with the strong
winds) and accumulating snow that may cause slick roadways.
While the higher elevations see good snowfall chances, lower
elevations particularly in the valleys will see rain more as
their P-type though some areas may see some snow mixed in on
Saturday night with temperatures cooling and snow levels
dropping. Snow flurries may be possible going into Sunday
morning within western NV. The latest QPF values range from
around a trace in Mineral county to around almost 2 inches in
the Sierra Crest on Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation chances
look to begin Saturday morning in the west with the front
approaching and spread through the rest of the CWA by the
afternoon hours. These chances then look to depart out the east
with the system by late Sunday afternoon allowing for a drier
evening and night.
* Temperatures: Temperatures do come crashing down and are pretty
cold for May standards on Saturday and especially Sunday due to
the cold front passage. High temperatures will be upwards of
15-20 degrees below average, as the region barely reaches 40
degrees for Sierra communities with western NV seeing lows as
high as the low to middle 50s. There is additionally the chance
for sub-freezing temperatures in western NV and northeast CA on
Sunday morning as well as Sunday night into Monday morning.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND: Model guidance shows the upper air low opening
up into more of a negatively tilted trough on Monday over the Rocky
Mountains allowing for a mostly northwesterly flow over the CWA that
continues through Tuesday. It also continues into Wednesday with the
trough becoming more neutral over the central CONUS as a ridge moves
over the Pacific Coast. As a result, temperatures look to rebound a
bit though still being cooler on Monday before slightly cooling on
Tuesday with a warming trend beginning on Wednesday. While the upper
air pattern is unsettled at this time, signals do point to the
warming trend continuing through Thursday and Friday. Precipitation
chances look to be minimal at best currently during the next work
week. There may be some fog concerns during the morning hours around
the Truckee area during mornings to begin the work week, so will
continue to monitor this potential. -078
&&
.AVIATION...
* Friday will feature pleasant flying conditions with light winds
and mostly clear skies into the evening. There are a few showers
around KMMH into the eastern Sierra that will quickly dissipate
after sundown this evening.
Weekend Storm Update: A strong, unseasonably colder spring storm
system is moving into the region overnight tonight through Saturday.
* Snow/Rain: Widespread mountain snow showers and valley rains are
likely (>70-90%) overnight into Saturday evening throughout the
northeast CA, the Sierra, and western NV. This colder airmass will
allow for snow levels to drop to 5000-5500 feet by Saturday night.
Sierra terminals KTRK, KTVL, and KMMH could see between 3-5" of
snowfall with a 80-90% chance for at least 2". However, high sun
angle in May may limit accumulations on runways at those terminal
during the day. There is also a slight chance for snow flurries
Saturday night into Sunday morning for far western NV terminals
(KRTS-KRNO-KCXP-KMEV).
* Winds: Strong west to southwest winds will increase across the
Sierra overnight and continue through Saturday night. Look for
sustained ridgetop winds across the Sierra of 40-50kts with gusts
upwards of 70-90kts during this time period. Expect periods of
mountain wave turbulence, as well as LLWS for all area terminals.
Strong west to southwest winds are possible as well for all
western NV and Sierra terminals through Saturday. -Amanda
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday NVZ005.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday
NVZ002.
High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday NVZ001-003.
Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday NVZ004.
CA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday CAZ070.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday
CAZ071.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday
CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
224 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
...New LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
...Severe thunderstorms expected again this afternoon and
evening...
A very moist and unstable airmass persists across the area again
this afternoon. A dryline is located across far West Texas, with
a residual outflow boundary bisecting the forecast area from
northwest to southeast. Strong to extreme instability exists
across the area per latest SPC mesoanalysis, with MLCAPE`s
3500-4500 J/kg. Deep layer shear is not particularly strong (0-6
km shear around 25 kts) but sufficient for supercells and intense
updrafts given the degree of instability. As of 2 PM, visible
satellite imagery already shows an agitated cumulus field across
western portions of the Big Country and northwest Concho Valley.
Latest HRRR develops convection across this area by 21Z (4pm
local), with storms expanding in coverage and tracking east across
the area during the evening hours. Very large to possibly giant
hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible.
As storms progress eastward with time, the main hazard will
transition to damaging winds, although large hail will still be
a concern. In addition to the severe threat, precipitable water
values near 1.5 inches will support torrential downpours, which
may lead to some localized flooding.
The airmass will remain very moist and unstable again for
Saturday ahead of a weak cold front and a shortwave trough
approaching from the west. Models still show fairly widespread
thunderstorm development across West Central Texas by afternoon
along the weak front, which should be situated across the Big
Country. Thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage by late
afternoon and early evening. There is yet another risk for severe
storms tomorrow, primarily south of the surface cold front and
maximized across western portions of the Concho Valley and farther
west across the Permian Basin, where SPC now has an enhanced
risk. A slight risk exists across the remainder of West Central
Texas. Shear is expected to be stronger tomorrow, especially
during the evening hours, which will support tornadoes, some
possibly strong within the enhanced risk area. Otherwise, large
hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible mainly
through the evening hours, with damaging winds becoming the main
threat overnight as storms push eastward with time. Heavy rainfall
is again possible tomorrow afternoon/evening, which may result in
some localized flooding.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
By early evening Saturday, numerous showers and thunderstorms will
be ongoing across much of the area. The primary points of
development will be along a weak front that will be stalled across
the region and to our west along the dryline. Eventually, expect the
storms to congeal into a slow moving mesoscale convective system
(MCS) and slowly move south or southeast across the region. Strong
to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with large hail and
damaging winds being the main concerns, although a tornado is also
possible. In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible,
especially given the expected slow movement of the storms. Some
flooding will be possible, especially in low lying areas, low water
crossings, and on roadways. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. On Sunday, the remnant cold front will remain in the
area, so additional showers and thunderstorms are possible. Most of
the activity should dissipate by mid to late evening.
Drier and hotter conditions are expected for next week. Highs on
Monday will approach 90, with highs Tuesday into the low to mid 90s.
The hottest temperatures are forecast on Wednesday with highs
approaching the upper 90s in our southern counties. A weak cold
front will move into the region Thursday, ushering in slightly
cooler temperatures. Highs will be in the 80s across the northern
half of the area to the low to mid 90s across the southern half of
the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Lingering MVFR ceilings will lift/scatter out to VFR within
the next hour or two (KABI and KBBD), with VFR prevailing through
the afternoon hours. Still expecting strong to severe convection
to develop across the area mainly this evening. Timed convection
with latest hi-res guidance and may need to refine a bit more
based on trends. Convection will end from west to east late this
evening, with KBBD and KJCT seeing storms exit by 05Z. Stratus is
expected to develop once again after midnight. Highest confidence
is currently across the southern terminals and will include MVFR
ceilings after 06Z. Convection possible again tomorrow but is
expected to hold off until the afternoon hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 63 79 61 77 / 60 80 90 50
San Angelo 63 86 61 78 / 70 60 90 50
Junction 67 88 64 81 / 30 30 80 60
Brownwood 63 80 62 77 / 40 60 90 60
Sweetwater 63 79 61 75 / 50 80 90 40
Ozona 64 84 62 78 / 50 40 90 50
Brady 65 82 62 76 / 30 60 90 60
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
959 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 956 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Showers and thunderstorms moving north into central Oklahoma at
this time will likely dissipate or remain west of our area. The
current forecast is on track with the MCS currently across western
Kansas moving east southeast into parts of northeast Oklahoma
late tonight or early Saturday morning. The only change to the
forecast this evening is to remove the low pops in parts of
western Arkansas tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
A complex of storms is expected to develop across Kansas this
evening and progress east southeastward overnight tonight. the
leading edge of this MCS will begin to nudge into parts of
northeast Oklahoma by early Saturday morning with some gusty winds
possible along the leading edge along with heavy rainfall.
Overall, the complex should be in a weakening state as it moves
through northeast Oklahoma throughout the rest of the morning
hours. Still locally heavy downpours will be possible with the
stronger cores with high moisture content over the region. The
rest of the day Saturday will see lower chances (20-40%) for some
lingering showers and storms in the wake of the decaying MCS and
whatever outflow boundaries are leftover from that.
Heading into Sunday, increasing chances for widespread showers and
storms are expected as a shortwave trough lifts northeastward out
of central Texas and tracks across eastern Oklahoma during the
day. The severe threat will remain low during this time, but
isolated severe potential will exists with the more persistent
updrafts. The main threat will be locally heavy rainfall on top of
already very saturated soils. Rainfall throughout the last week
has been in the 5 to 7 inch range for a good chunk of eastern
Oklahoma and parts of western Arkansas. Additional rainfall of 1
to 2 inches is likely for much of the area with locally higher
amounts quickly causing concern for flash flooding and flooding of
urban or low lying areas due to excessive runoff. It won`t take
much for flooding to occur, so have opted to issue a Flood Watch
for the entire forecast area given the saturated conditions and
already high rivers and streams.
The unsettled pattern will continue into next week as an upper low
ejects out into the Central to Northern Plains and meanders for
several days. This will allow for moderately strong westerly to
southwesterly flow aloft to develop over the Southern Plains and
last through much of the week. Concurrently, a surface cold front
will drop southeastward into Kansas and become stalled, while a
dryline extend southward into Oklahoma and Texas. These areas will
serve as the focus for daily shower and storm chances for much of
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The strong flow aloft
combined with a warm and moist boundary layer will support severe
potential with any storms that develop. Monday will be the first
day to watch in the period as the main upper trough swings into
the Plains. Best storm chances will exist across northern Oklahoma
closer to the large scale ascent as an expanding elevated mixed
layer (EML) spread over the Southern Plains likely capping
convection further south along the dryline. Still, a couple storms
will be possible along the dryline with all severe hazards
possible. Details will continue to come into better focus as
Monday gets closer. The surface front is progged to drop down into
eastern Oklahoma on Wednesday, which would enhance shower and
storm chances Wednesday afternoon as well. Again, all severe
hazards appear possible at this time. Everyday next week through
at least Thursday, looks like a day to watch as the environment
will be supportive of severe potential each day. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
A few isolated showers/thunderstorms will remain possible for the
next hour across NW AR before dissipating with loss of heating.
Lower stratus deck will begin to spread north into portions
eastern Oklahoma Saturday morning with patchy fog possible across
northwest Arkansas. A few storms may move into the KBVO area late
tonight. There is some potential for convection that is developing
across western Kansas to form a complex with scatted storms
impacting portions of northeast Oklahoma around 12Z along outflow
boundary. Latest HRRR suggest this activity will likely be
weakening by this time. Scattered storms will remain possible
through the day Saturday near stalled outflow boundary or with
cold front moving into northeast Oklahoma Saturday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 79 60 73 / 30 70 60 80
FSM 64 82 65 76 / 10 40 50 90
MLC 66 81 63 75 / 10 50 70 90
BVO 61 76 55 72 / 40 60 50 80
FYV 61 80 60 74 / 10 50 50 90
BYV 61 80 60 72 / 0 50 40 80
MKO 64 78 62 72 / 20 60 60 90
MIO 61 77 58 71 / 20 70 40 80
F10 63 78 61 72 / 20 70 70 90
HHW 64 78 65 75 / 10 30 60 90
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday evening for
OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday evening for
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...12