Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/01/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
641 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Enhanced Risk This Afternoon/Evening for Very Large Hail and
Damaging Thunderstorm Winds
- Heavy rain and marginal severe weather Wednesday night into
Thursday. Localized hydrology impacts possible.
- Active weather resumes this weekend and at the beginning of
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Upper air analysis paints a broad area of troughing over southwest
Canada with embedded shortwave energy propagating around the
feature. One of note in the northern Plains will generate severe
weather for Iowa today as it ejects across the region this
afternoon. A secondary surface low placed over Nebraska will
begin to phase into the main system, but will work together to
intensify low level moisture advection. This process was already
noticeable this morning as an advection wing of showers and
storms progressed into the state, outrunning the instability
axis. High dew point values will pool along an approaching cold
front in the west, driving CAPE values into the 1000s range in
southwest Iowa. Wind fields are favorable for storm organization
with 50kt+ winds out of the West at H500 paired with diffluent
flow aloft and enhanced southerly low level flow mentioned
earlier.
The wind field is near textbook for dominating right-moving
supercells. Plenty of directional and speed shear aloft with an
impressive looking low level wind field. The highest confidence
threats would be hail and wind with storms, especially in the early
stages of their lives when they are discreet. Large rotating
updrafts with sufficient instability and ventilation are primed for
large hail production. The 18z OAX sounding further supports hail
production with 700-500mb lapse rates valued at 8.3 C/km. Inverted-v
soundings below will allow for the acceleration of cold pools and,
consequently, severe winds. Can expect possible hail in excess of 2
inches with larger storms and winds approaching 70mph in the
favorable downdraft regime. Some uncertainty lingers on how these
two threats will evolve as the sun sets and the LLJ influence
increases. CAMs illustrate a gradual evolution of a linear mode of
sorts with embedded UH streaks in the line. Thu UH streaks are large
from the anticipated large updraft regions of storms with some
updrafts noticeably deviating off Bunkers motion and into the better
instability, further increasing the streamwise vorticity ingest.
Whatever cell/cluster can get going along the instability axis will
likely be the dominating storm and inhibit upscale growth of cells
further to the north of it. CAMs have been consistent in placing
this storm somewhere in central Iowa, but cannot say in certainty
who would be directly impacted.
Now, to cover the tornado threat. As it sits, there is a 5% risk of
a tornado within 25 miles of of a point. If you observe soundings
from the RAP for this afternoon, the tornado chances appear to be
higher. The main difference is in the LCLs. Consensus for the area
appears to be LCLs generally around 1500m which is too high for
tornadoes. The RAP has some consistency in its run in really pooling
moisture along the cold front this afternoon, lowering the LCLs to
favorable heights for tornadoes. If the LCLs in the environment are
lower, the storm will be able to ingest some of the streamwise
vorticity found in the lowest km of the environment. Helicity values
in this region of the atmosphere are in the 100s which is more than
enough for tornadogenesis. That all being said, we are not expecting
tornadoes to be the primary threat today, but that doesn`t mean they
aren`t out of the question. The potential for tornadoes is higher
the further into the moisture axis you traverse as this will be the
region of the best potential for lower cloud bases. A close analysis
of the near storm environment will be needed as the storms involve
because further environmental factors such as boundary ingestion
could further encourage tornadogenesis.
A brief pause in precipitation is expected during the daytime
Wednesday, but the Gulf opens up again through the day ahead of
another approaching area of low pressure which will work to enhance
jet speeds Wednesday evening and overnight, generating PWAT values
nearing 1.5 inches in the southwest. Warm cloud depths will
exceed 3500m. An MCS is anticipated to move into portions of
southern Iowa ahead of even more rainfall anticipated with the
main shortwave during the day Thursday. The MCS will settle for
a path generally along wherever the instability axis sets up
across the south. Consequently, the recovery of instability for
Thursday will be questionable, causing uncertainty in severe
weather chances. Nonetheless, the LLJ with advance further into
the state through the day and continue to support additional
rainfall statewide. Climatologically, PWAT and specific humidity
values are in the upper 90th percentiles and near the top of the
GEFS QPF model climatology. The ECMWF EFI covers much of the
state in values between 0.7 and 0.8. The same area is circled in
a shift of tails contour, signifying further that the QPF
amounts are near the top of the model climatology. The grand
ensemble 24 hour QPF exceeds 1 inch for especially the southern
part of the state, given that this is a course output, locally
high amounts are possible and will be better evaluated as the hi
res window captures the event fully. Some river response is
expected with HEFS putting some sites in action stage.
The rest of the period remains mild and active with additional rain
chances returning over the weekend. Temperatures will remain near 70
degrees. Active weather remains the theme into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
A line of severe thunderstorms currently moving across central
Iowa to impact the terminals now thru 02-03Z. MVFR/IFR cigs and
vsbys to accompany these storms. Severe weather possible
w/strongest storms to include hail and damaging winds. Skies
quickly clear back to VFR behind with winds easing and becoming
westerly through the overnight hours into the daylight hours on
Wed. Chances for rain/lower CIGS to return Wed evening as the
next weather system approaches from the SW.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jimenez
AVIATION...Percha
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
639 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The forecast will remain active through the period with
almost daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.
- Heavy rain is possible over the next 7 days with 1 to 3+
inches of rain in the forecast from WPC.
- Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above
normal through the period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
A weakening area of showers and storms continues to lift east
northeastward this afternoon across central Iowa north of a
warm front that is forecast to continue lifting across the
remainder of the area. Winds have shifted to the south behind
this warm front with gusts up to 25 mph. At 2 PM, temperatures
range from 69 degrees at Dubuque to 79 degrees at Washington
with dewpoints largely in the lower to mid 50s.
The dry air continues to impact the area of showers in central
Iowa and think that this will continue to dissipate over the
next couple of hours with light rain possible across Benton,
Buchanan, Delaware, and Linn Counties.
CAMs continue to show the development of a line of storms to our
west this afternoon that moves east southeastward through this
evening and has it moving across eastern Iowa, northwest
Illinois and far northeast Missouri between 00 and 06 UTC. HREF
2 to 5 km updraft helicity swaths show the convection moving
into our area west of a Fairfield to Cedar Rapids line before
gradually weakening as it moves eastward. Continue to think
that hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threat. SPC has
our western two rows of counties in a slight or level 2 out of 5
risk of severe storms and the reminder of the area in a
Marginal or level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms. CAMs are in
good overall agreement in the evolution of these storms and have
been hinting at potentially stronger storms across area south of
I-80. Several runs of the HRRR as well as the 12 UTC NAm Nest
show the development of strong winds behind the convection
across the area mainly along and north of Interstate 80. We will
continue to monitor the situation to see if this does occur.
The cold front will move across the area from west to east
overnight with high pressure quickly building into the area at
the surface and aloft. Skies will quickly clear from the west.
High temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be in the lower
to mid 70s. Model soundings show some mixing behind the cold
front with gusts west winds developing Wednesday morning with
gusts up to 25 MPH through the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
A more active pattern will remain in place across the Upper
Midwest Wednesday night through Monday night. There is a storm
system roughly every 24 hours or so. A potent wave digging into
the Rockies Wednesday night into Friday is forecast to deepen
as it moves into the Plains. We will see a few leading impulses
ahead of this wave pass through the area, leading to persistent
showers/storms for the remainder of the week. The first of these
will arrive Wednesday night. This will be a wet period, with
the potential to see quite a bit of rain. With recent rains and
more forecast, some rises along area rivers are possible. The
parent wave developing is the one that has our attention though.
There is plenty of uncertainty with this system, as well as
major timing differences amongst guidance. Although, all long
term guidance does show this system. If this wave deepens
enough and we get that negative tilt upon arrival, this will
bring the potential for strong to severe storms late in the
week. Although, it is too soon to say for sure. WPC is
highlighting our area in the risk for Excessive Rainfall from
midweek through the end of the week, as they are currently
forecasting between 1-3+ inches of rain by the week`s end for
some. Thus, flash flooding will be possible, as well as rises
along area rivers. So, just be mindful and stay up to date with
the latest forecasts!
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
VFR conditions are expected for most of the period. A line of
showers and storms is expected to affect all TAF sites through
06z. Current tempo timing has been timed to match current radar
trends. Tempos may need updating to include wind gusts
especially at DBQ/CID/BRL as gusts over 50 kts are possible at
these sites. Also DBQ could have prolonged winds after 05z, but
confidence is low at this time. Frequent gusts to near 50kts
could be possible at DBQ.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins/McClure
AVIATION...Gibbs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
622 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
...Updated 00z Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Few Severe Storms Possible Tonight
- More Rain Showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday/Thursday
- Flooding Possible With Heavy Rainfall
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Compact H5 ridge axis has shifted eastward of the area and has
pushed the surface anticyclone into the Ohio River Valley. A strong
PV anomaly has resulted in a closed-low system over the Pacific
Northwest that has been ejecting multiple vorticity maximums across
the Central CONUS. The one of interest over the next 8-10 hours is
an H5 short-wave trough axis that has acquired a negative tilt moving
across the Northern Plains. Height falls extend southward with
enhanced vorticity southward into the High Plains and Central
Plains, and has promoted dCVA across the Front Range resulting in
surface Lee Cyclogenesis. This has been promoting strong WAA across
the area along with stronger theta-e advection into the lower
Missouri River Valley. The warm front with this system has already
pushed into Iowa this afternoon with cold front currently analyzed
through west-central Kansas behind the main surface wave. There is
also a dryline across western Kansas but the cold front should
overtake this by the time it approaches our forecast area. With
deepening surface cyclone, surface winds have been slowly backing
over the past few hours across our area. H5 height falls have
expanded eastward into eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas late this
afternoon and convergence has been steadily increasing in the area
of pressure falls. A few showers have already developed in eastern
Nebraska as of 19z. The boundary layer has been mixing quite a bit
this afternoon, and the theta-e advection has helped MLCAPE values
approach 1500 J/kg, with 12z HREF mean favoring this increasing to
between 2000-2500 J/kg by the early evening. As the mid-level streak
ejects ahead of the main trough axis with approaching vorticity
maximum, deep layer shear will readily increase along the cold front
and several kilometers ahead of it into the warm sector, with 0-6km
bulk shear values generally around 40 kts. This bulk-shear vector is
also oriented perpendicular to the cold front, which will support an
initial discrete storm mode, as well as support a supercellular
storm mode. Mid-level lapse rates have been steepening most of the
afternoon which will support buoyant updraft development in the axis
of convergence along the cold front and surface pressure falls with
the approaching cyclone. RAP soundings suggest mid-level lapse rates
near 8.0 C/km along several points with the approaching cold front.
Thermodynamically these updrafts would suggest support for large
hail, as there is also CAPE concentrated with the sub-freezing layer
that could allow for hail embryo growth. The main question will be
how fast storms move off the boundary, and if low-level storm
relative flow is too strong, may eject hail stones out of the
favorable growth. However with the magnitude of shear and shape of
the hodograph the favorable pressure perturbations along the flanks
of the updrafts may be enough to sustain large hail. With the larger
degree of boundary layer mixing, some RAP soundings are showing
increasing DCAPE values and drastically increasing theta-deficits
from the surface to the top of the boundary layer that would suggest
stronger cold pools and damaging wind potential. However, RAP/HRRR
may be over producing the mixing, as stronger theta-e advection has
maintained higher dewpoints and thus theta-e deficits are currently
weaker than progged by deterministic CAM output. As for the tornado
threat, we still need to remove some of the inhibition present from
a weak inversion around 850mb. Thinking with the clear skies we have
this afternoon we should be able to achieve this, giving us near-
surface based parcels as convergence continues to increase. Low-
level hodographs demonstrate notable curvature, with 0-500m SRH
values near 100 m^2/s^/2, and 0-1km values between 150-200 m^2/s^/2
later this evening as the low-level jet ramps up. For both a storm
motion with the mean wind and Bunker`s Right Mover estimation,
storms will be able to realize large amounts of streamwise
vorticity. Coupled with stronger storm-relative inflow providing
strong updrafts, this could support a tornado threat. However,
unsure how far east this will last. Storms will likely need to stay
closer to the cold front to realize this kind of shear environment,
and may quickly move off the boundary prior to entering our area.
Therefore, will mainly be concerned with large hail and damaging
wind if stronger supercells develop. Experimental WoFS models may be
able to provide some guidance on how long supercells can last if
they move off the boundary. As the low-level jet continues to
strengthen through the evening, discrete storms along the front
should congeal and eventually become an MCS or QLCS storm mode. This
should eventually generate stronger cold pools capable of wind
gusts, and perhaps a localized hail threat. As for rain, most
deterministic CAM solutions are generally around 0.25 to 0.50
inches, with mean HREF values around 0.30 inches. The probability
matched mean values from the 12z HREF do show a few high pockets of
rainfall that exceeds one inch. From coarser resolution ensembles,
mean QPF values in our far southwestern CWA is generally around 0.75
inches but a few members to produce more than one inch, and
probability for exceeding one inch are around 30 to 40 percent.
Therefore, have issued a Flood Watch for Flash Flooding potential in
Bates County , MO and Linn County, KS this evening. Other areas
could experience flash flooding with localized heavy rainfall, but
will be difficult for it to become widespread. Rivers already
experiencing high flow may rise with heavier rainfall this evening.
Wednesday morning, subtle H5 height rises are progged through the
morning which should help to end overnight activity along the front
with just enough subsidence. Another short-wave coming out of the
Intermountain West will provide another round dCVA and surface
cyclogenesis across the Plains, maintaining southerly low-level flow.
RAP/HRRR depict this stalling out the surface cold front roughly
along the Hwy. 36 corridor, and starts another period of WAA by
Wednesday morning across the area. Expecting isentropic upglide that
could produce shower activity Wednesday morning into the afternoon.
There will still be some instability under steep-midlevel lapse
rates that perhaps could produce more convective structure, but
there may not be enough large scale ascent support for this.
Further, any subsidence with the H5 height rises my suppress this
development. Have kept some POPs through Wednesday as current
ensemble probabilities for measurable precipitation remain between 20-
30 percent, though probabilities rapidly drop off for a threshold QPF
of 0.10 inches. By Wednesday evening, H5 height falls will pick up
in pace, and the surface cyclone deepens as stronger dCVA occurs over
the Central Plains and the system begins to move eastward.
Convergence will increase across the lower Missouri River Valley and
another cold front will begin to move across the area. There is some
potential for convection to develop, but this will largely depend on
boundary layer destabilization through the afternoon. If insentropic
ascent keeps skies overcast, there may not be enough instability for
convection structure. However, clear skies may allow for steepening
boundary layer lapse rates, and improving kinematics with the
approaching short-wave trough could produce stronger thunderstorms
with some severe potential. Given how conditional Wednesday Night`s
setup is on with tonight`s activity, will not dive to deeply into
mesoscale details at this time. Right now, it appears the more
favorable spot forcing and instability to line up will be west of
the CWA. However, continued rainfall though may start to increase
Flash Flood Risk, especially into Thursday morning. By Thursday
Morning, ensemble probabilities for exceeding 0.50 inches of QPF is
around 50 percent for a large portion of the forecast area, with
around 20 percent for exceeding 1.0 inches. If a stronger convective
storm mode is realized Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning, the
higher end of the QPF spectrum could result in further flash
flooding issues, as well as other hydrologic issues on area rivers
and streams. Rain shower activity continues into Thursday as
boundary slows down as well as propagation of H5 short-wave trough
axis, with most of the activity exiting the area by late Thursday
Night. The main vorticity max driving the Wednesday/Thursday activity
should be cleared of the forecast area by early Friday morning.
Progressive mid-level flow being rerouted around Canadian closed-low
system continues through the weekend and into the next work week
bringing additional chances for rain showers and thunderstorms. At
this time, there is still a large amount of spread that makes it
difficult to pinpoint details at this time, as well as comment on
any severe weather potential. However hydrological concerns will
remain with heavier rainfall events.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Cold front is moving closer with storms lined up along them.
These will impact the TAF sites between 00z and 03z this
evening, with a brief period of MVFR ceilings. Lingering
precipitation possible on backside, conditions improve to VFR
by the early morning Wednesday. Additional rain is possible
Wednesday.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ053.
KS...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ060.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
955 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a slight chance (around 20%) of thunderstorms this
afternoon across far eastern and northeastern portions of the
forecast area. These storms may become severe.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase (up to near 70%
during the afternoon) on Wednesday areawide with storm chances
increasing up to 95% Wednesday night.
- There is a 20% to 30% chance of strong to severe storms during
the day Wednesday but much higher chances (up to around 70%)
Wednesday evening and night.
- After today, high temperatures will mostly be in the 60s and
70s and low temperatures in the 30s to 50s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Quick update regarding thunderstorm potential tomorrow...
Latest model guidance is really honing in on the ongoing
activity across KS/OK and how it will affect our sensible
weather on Wed. In general, seems less and less likely that the
surface warm front will return northward anywhere close to the
local CWA, owing to persistent convection over central/SE Kansas
into N OK through the overnight and even into Wed AM. Sfc winds
will turn SE, but all this will do is advect a convectively
overturned airmass from these areas into south central Nebraska
and north central Kansas. This is not overly uncommon for this
area at this time of year, as we`re still several weeks from
peak sun angle and don`t have the help of surface ET. In fact,
latest hi-res guidance suggests an expanding area of only 50s
sfc temps by the aftn hrs thanks to more Erly/upslope sfc flow
and thickening cloud cover. Prior to that, will probably see
incr scat elevated convection from S to N by late AM or early
aftn. Forecast soundings are generally unimpressive, at least
from a thermo environment, as MUCAPE largely remains less than
1K J/kg. Could see some small hail (pea to penny-ish) from
strongest cores, thanks to seasonably low WBZ heights and strong
effective shear.
Appears our "highest" risk for severe convection will come
during the late evening and overnight from activity that
initially develops over NE CO, then shifts E. Due to
aforementioned stabilized effects from earlier in the day, any
tstms tmrw eve/night will likely be elevated...around 800mb per
00Z HRRR forecast soundings. These soundings continue to be
somewhat modest from an instability perspective (MUCAPE
1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher W/SW of the Tri-Cities),
but 50kt of SWrly flow at H5 atop incr 35-45kt Srly LLJ should
yield a substantial amount of effective shear. Even after
excluding the stable lowest 1km, 1-6km hodographs are still
quite long, and straight, with around 60kt of effective shear.
This suggests some sort of combination of splitting supercells
and/or linear segments. Axis of MUCAPE is highest W/SW of the
Tri-Cities, so these areas may have highest risk in the 00Z-06Z
time frame, with lessening risk with time and eastward extent.
Large hail will likely be the primary risk. If linear storm mode
indeed transpires, then dmg wind risk isn`t zero...but a
relatively deep stable layer (around 1km) argues against much
high wind making it to the sfc. This seems to be reflected in
00Z HRRR by lack of significant gusts near this convection. Any
tornado threat looks to remain well S/SW of the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Today and tonight...
An upper trough is over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains
and extends southward over the Central Plains. A cold front is
pushing through south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of this cold front this afternoon into this
evening as it moves southeastward. Most models are showing the
convection developing east of the forecast area, but there is about
a 20% chance of storms developing across the far eastern and
northeastern part of the forecast area later this afternoon. Any
storm that develops will have the potential (60% to 70% chance) to
become severe given fairly high CAPE, wind shear, and instability.
Gusty northwest winds are present behind the front with temperatures
in the 60s and 70s. A surface high will be present across the area
tonight with fairly light winds. Low temperatures will range from
the low 40s to low 50s.
Wednesday and Wednesday night...
Showers and thunderstorms may develop across mainly north central
Kansas into far south central Nebraska Wednesday morning as the cold
front lifts northward a bit and interacts with an upper level
disturbance. Widespread severe storms are not expected with this
activity but a few strong to severe storms will be possible (about a
20% to 30% chance). An upper trough to the west will move closer to
the region Wednesday afternoon further increasing the upper level
lift. There is uncertainty as to whether the activity during the
morning and early afternoon hours will be strong to severe. Lift
from the upper trough will increase across the area Wednesday night
with the stalled front receiving a push southeastward. This will
likely result in a complex of storms moving across the forecast area
Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. The threats with these
storms will be large hail, damaging winds, localized flash flooding,
and a low tornado threat. High temperatures Wednesday will be in the
mid 60s to low 70s. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the
mid 40s to mid 50s.
Thursday through Monday night...
Lingering showers and storms are possible (up to a 50% chance)
mainly east of Highway 281 Thursday morning. The rain and storms are
expected to be out of the area Thursday afternoon. Winds will be
gusty out of the northwest Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon
as the colder air pushes through the area. High temperatures
Thursday are expected to be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Winds will
weaken during the evening hours with partly cloudy to mostly clear
skies overnight. Low temperatures Thursday night are expected to
drop into the mid 30s to mid 40s. Winds will increase out of the
south to southeast on Friday as an upper trough covers the northern
and central Plains. High temperatures on Friday are expected to be
fairly similar to the previous day. An upper trough will move over
the Central Plains Friday night and will provide increased chances
(up to around 60%) of showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures
Friday night are expected to be in the mid 30s to upper 40s. The
showers and storms will end by Saturday afternoon with high
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Low temperatures Saturday
night will mostly be in the 40s. Winds across south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas will increase out of the
south to southeast with an upper trough dominating the western part
of the country on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday will mostly be
in the 70s across the area. Gusty south to southeast winds will
continue into Sunday night with lows in the 50s. The upper trough to
the west will begin to move over the Central Plains on Monday with
increasing rain and storm chances (up to near 50%). Low temperatures
Monday night are expected to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Tonight: W-NW winds will decr around sunset, then veer
substantially through the overnight...becoming lgt and somewhat
variable after midnight. Skies should be clear to mostly clear
with just some FEW-SCT high clouds. Confidence: High.
Tuesday: Expect incr mid level clouds by mid to late AM, then
lower clouds, perhaps MVFR, towards the last 3-6 hrs of the
valid period. The lowering CIGs could also be accompanied by
some lgt shwrs. Winds will become ESE-SE for daytime hrs, and
incr to 12-16kt, with gusts towards 20kt, esp for the aftn.
Confidence: Medium.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Thies
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
515 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A marginal to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms continues
for the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated
storms possible in the afternoon east of Highway 83 in
northwest Kansas where large hail, damaging winds and perhaps
an isolated tornado will be possible. Storms will become more
widespread Wednesday night with large hail and locally heavy
rainfall becoming the primary hazards.
- Severe storms possible next Monday in eastern portions of the
area.
- Elevated to near critical fire weather possible Monday and
Tuesday of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Cold front has moved out of the area this afternoon with gusty
northwest winds in its wake. Those winds will gradually diminish
through the late afternoon and early evening. Tonight, a weak
wave embedded in the southwest flow aloft combined with low
level upslope at the surface might result in a few isolated
showers, mainly overnight, from northeast Colorado into
southwest Nebraska. However, confidence is low and most models
are dry. Low temperatures will be in the 40s.
Clouds will increase Wednesday morning with moisture return from
the southeast. By 18z expecting most if not the entire area to
be socked in with low to mid level clouds with east to southeast
winds. Weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft comes across in
the afternoon with warm front likely south of the area. With
persistent easterly winds north of the warm front, clouds may
persist well into the afternoon. This will impact not only
thunderstorm chances, but temperatures. Convective allowing
models not in the best agreement on where storms will initiate.
The HRRR has a couple of isolated supercells initiating after
21z near southeast corner of the area moving northeast, and
additional develop towards 00z in northwest corner of the area
near the secondary cold front. NAMnest on the other hand keeps
the area in the cool, cloudy and capped all day with more of a
stratiform light drizzle or light showers. The NAM does show
plentiful elevated instability and shear, but never taps into
it. The NAM keeps surface temperatures in the upper 40s to lower
50s all day in most of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska,
a solution that cannot be completely discounted. Given all the
uncertainties, confidence in severe risk and temperatures is
low.
Wednesday night, upper heights continue to fall/cool with
approach of main upper trough. Surface cold front will continue
to plow southeast and should be through the forecast area by
06z. There will be a risk of severe storms during the evening
with the stronger forcing. NAM finally shows elevated convection
developing late in the evening which taps into MUCAPE in excess
of 1000 j/kg and up to 3000 j/kg in eastern areas with deep
layer shear of around 50 kts. The HRRR shows a similar
environment during that time with elevated storms and a
favorable combination of MUCAPE/shear that would suggest a risk
for large hail. HREF shows lows probabilities of 6-hour rainfall
amounts of greater than 1 inch at 06z across mainly southwest
Nebraska, which is consistent with the HRRR which shows 1-2 inch
amounts along the Kansas/Nebraska border area and the NAM which
shows a bullseye of around 1 inch in the same general area.
Storms will be moving at a fairly decent clip of 10-20 kts, so
appears to be more of a heavy rain threat than flash flood
threat. Storms continue to move east overnight, with perhaps a
lingering risk for severe hail between 06-09z east of Highway
25, before moving out after 09z. Low temperatures will be in the
40s.
After morning clouds, Thursday will be mostly sunny with highs
in the 60s. Widely scattered light showers will be possible
Thursday evening in western areas with a weak wave coming across
in the zonal flow aloft. However, with no instability to work
with and little moisture, impacts will be minimal. Lows Thursday
night will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Zonal flow continues on Friday with another open wave coming out
of Colorado in the afternoon. Convection should initiate on the
higher terrain to the west with forecast SBCAPE values of less
than 500 j/kg. Showers and isolated storms continue east into
Friday night, possibly merging into a large area of light to
occasionally moderate rain. GFS and ECMWF show 12-hour
precipitation amounts by 12z Saturday morning of between a
quarter and a half inch. High temperatures will be in the lower
70s and low temperatures will range from the low to mid 30s in
northeast Colorado to the lower 40s in north central Kansas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Saturday will be dry with shortwave ridging in the southwest
flow. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s. Models are
mixed regarding precipitation chances on Sunday. Next
disturbance in the southwest flow passes well to the south in
the GFS solution, but the ECMWF has a weaker, broader wave with
a few showers/isolated storms further north. Confidence is
rather low, but blended model did put in some 20 to 30 pops for
the area during the afternoon and evening. Instability continues
to be weak, so severe storms not expected. Temperatures warm
into the 70s to lower 80s with lows Sunday night in the upper
40s to middle 50s.
On Monday, the main trough ejects across the Rockies and a deep
closed low will develop over the northern Rockies/adjacent
plains by Monday afternoon. Most of the local area appears to
get dry slotted on that track with a fire weather risk should
stronger winds develop. Dry line trailing south across the High
Plains may reside in eastern portions of the area Monday
afternoon. Models show moderate instability along and east of
the dry line with deep layer shear of 50-70 kts, parameters
sufficient for a risk of severe storms including supercells.
Uncertainty at that time range on location of the dry line is
high and will likely fluctuate until the models can settle on a
solution. High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s and lows
in the 40s.
Should be on the dry and breezy side of that system for Tuesday
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s. May see another day
of fire weather concerns with afternoon humidity minimums
approaching 15-20% along with the breezier conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024
KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through at least 14z. A
northerly wind around 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the
east overnight with speeds generally below 11kts. On Wednesday,
east-southeast winds slowly increase through the day, gusting up
to 25kts or so. Sub VFR cigs in stratus are possible in the
16z-20z timeframe and if the NAM model is correct, linger
through the rest of the taf period. HRRR/GFS boundary layer
relative humidity show the stratus (marking the location of a
dry line) lifting to the northeast so at this time the late
afternoon forecast of cigs is uncertain. Presently, am not
expecting any precipitation through the period.
KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through about 20z. A
northwest wind gusting up to 25kts at taf issuance will subside
below 10kts by 02z with winds veering to the east at speeds
under 10kts overnight. On Wednesday, easterly winds gusting up
to 25kts are expected. From 20z-24z, sub VFR cigs are expected
in stratus. Will need to watch for a few showers in the vicinity
of the terminal in the 08z-12z timeframe and again after 18z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1034 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A low pressure system will bring a period of showers and
thunderstorms from late this evening into the overnight hours
tonight. No severe weather is expected, but a few storms could
bring brief gusty winds and small hail. Another round of
showers and storms are likely from Thursday into Friday.
- Gusty west winds from 30 to 40 mph are expected over central
and east-central Wisconsin on Wednesday. While recent rains
will limit the fire weather potential, the gusty winds will
bring a threat of isolated power line fires.
- Due to recent and upcoming rainfall, rivers and streams will be
on the rise late this week. Some rivers are forecast to reach
bankfull stage by Friday or Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Wednesday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show widespread
low stratus across north-central to far northeast Wisconsin within
a shallow, cool airmass. The back edge of this cloud cover has
been slowly shifting to the northeast as return flow on the
western flank of a ridge axis increases over the northern
Mississippi Valley. Looking upstream, an elongated area of low
pressure exists to the lee of the Rockies ahead of a potent
shortwave trough. Showers and thunderstorms have developed on the
leading edge of the moisture axis in a region of elevated moisture
convergence from eastern South Dakota to Iowa. As low pressure
tracks northeast across the region, precip and thunderstorm trends
along with gusty winds on the backside of the system are the main
forecasts concerns through Wednesday afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorm potential: Low pressure will be
intensifying as it moves from southern Minnesota early this
evening to western Lake Superior by Wednesday morning. Strong QG
forcing will be passing across the northwest half of Wisconsin as
the low passes to go along with steep mid-level lapse rates
upwards of 7 C/km.
This forcing combined with a 40-50 kt low level jet will lead to
a swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms lifting from
southwest to northeast across the region from late evening through
the overnight hours. The HREF indicates that elevated instability
will weaken though the night, but can reach 500-750 j/kg as
storms enter central WI late this evening. As a result, a few
strong storms will be possible, primarily over central WI, but no
severe weather is expected. The storms will become more isolated
over north- central and far northeast WI late tonight as
instability wanes. There is a 30-40% chance of 0.50" or more of
rainfall over parts of central to north-central WI tonight.
Gusty winds Wednesday: As the low lifts across Lake Superior,
boundary layer winds will increase in a cold advection regime on
Wednesday morning. HRRR/RAP/GFS all point to substantial low level
moisture beneath the inversion and within a broad thermal
troughing regime. As a result, some drizzle may stick around into
Wednesday morning over far northern WI. The cloud cover and light
precip will likely hinder wind gust potential across the region.
Forecast soundings and NBM probabilities indicate the greatest
potential for wind gusts above 35 mph will occur over east-central
WI (40-60%) in the 1-2 pm hour, but those probabilities fall to
under 20% for wind gusts greater than 40 mph. Therefore, while it
will be windy, gusts do not appear strong enough for a wind
advisory at this time.
The gusty winds of 30-40 mph could lead to isolated power line
fires, but recent rainfall and potential for underperforming winds
due to cloud cover should limit the potential substantially. Think
the potential is greatest over central WI to far northeast WI
where green up has yet to occur in the sandy soil/forested areas.
Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
An active pattern containing several systems and multiple rounds
of precip is set to persist through the extended. Main focus will
be on an end of week system that will bring rain chances to the
western Great Lakes starting Thursday afternoon. As a result, the
majority of the forecast area is under a slight risk for
excessive rainfall Thursday through Friday. Expect river/stream
levels to be on the rise through the end of the week, with some
locations reaching bankfull by the end of the week.
Thursday/Friday precip chances... Rain chances will begin to ramp
up toward the latter half of the week as a robust trough spins up
a lee cyclone that will eject into the upper Midwest by Friday
morning. Warm air advection precip will likely arrive Thursday
afternoon out ahead of a warm front before becoming more
widespread Thursday evening along a trailing cold front as it
moves east across the forecast area. Models are still struggling
to hone in on QPF amounts, although ensemble guidance currently
shows a strong signal for at least half an inch of storm total QPF
through Friday. Given strong poleward moisture transport and an
open Gulf, some models (GFS and ECMWF) would suggest closer to
0.75 to 1" of event QPF. Most convective elements look to remain
to our south and east, although an elevated thunderstorm with
some gusty winds cannot be ruled out Thursday evening through
Friday morning with MUCAPE values in the 300 to 400 J/kg range
(NAM). Best chances for thunder currently look to be in east-
central Wisconsin, although any storms will have to overcome a
robust surface inversion due to easterly flow advecting a stable
lake airmass onshore. Drier conditions will then arrive behind the
cold front on Friday as winds increase and veer to westerly. Gusts
between 20 and 30 mph will be possible during this time, mainly in
central Wisconsin.
Saturday/Sunday precip chances... As Friday`s surface low
continues to decay and exits to the north, another upper-level
disturbance is progged to develop in its wake, bringing
additional precip chances through the weekend. However, there is
still model disagreement about the timing of this feature this far
out in the forecast period, and thus how fast precip chances will
arrive. Overall QPF amounts look to be lower than the previous
system as most of the prime Gulf moisture struggles to make it up
into the forecast area. Convective elements currently don`t look
too impressive, although this may change as additional models come
in range.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the region
overnight as an upper level disturbance and surface front approach
from the Plains states. Flight conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR
in the precipitation.
The rain will end by daybreak Wednesday. MVFR ceilings are likely
west of an ESC to STE line, with VFR ceilings to the east.
Southwest winds will gust to over 30 knots mostly south of a AUW
to SUE line.
Another weather system will bring additional showers and
thunderstorms to the region Thursday and Thursday evening.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC/Goodin
AVIATION.......RDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
836 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wind gusts 50 mph or higher possible around/just after
midnight as a line of decaying showers/isolated thunderstorms
moves across the area.
- Gusty westerly winds to 30 mph Wednesday.
- A couple periods of showers and thunderstorms mid to late
week, most notably Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning, then again late Thursday night into Friday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Recent radar trends across southern Iowa show that a cluster of
generally discrete supercells proceeded by disorganized
convection toward the Des Moines area has congealed into a more
organized MCV near Ottumwa. Unlike as was depicted in earlier
CAM guidance, this organization does not display a cohesive MCS
signal. Expectations are for the current MCV to track just south
of east into the relatively more favorable convective
environment. This would bring the track along or just south of
the far southern CWA. Concerns of a potential small wake low
with 50mph+ winds remain valid, but the smaller footprint of
organized convection and weaker cold pool/trailing meso-high
suggest the overall threat is waning.
Farther north, residual mid-level forcing may be able to
maintain some lingering isolated showers and storms across most
of northern Illinois through the overnight hours. Given the
existing low-level dry airmass and only gradual nocturnal
surface decoupling in the warm sector, any (decaying)
shower/storm would still be capable of producing gusty winds at
the surface.
Kluber
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Through Wednesday Night:
The primary forecast focus and concern is regarding what the
HRRR and several other models are showing late this evening into
the early overnight hours, which is the potential for wind gusts
50 mph or higher. As showers and a few thunderstorms move into
the western area late this evening, they will be in a weakening
phase and as they dissipate across the local area, the models
are showing the potential for strong winds mixing to the
surface. Of note with the HRRR is that it has been doing this
consistently, run after run today. There is a narrow time window
of strong winds via a low level jet and whether the models are
mixing into this low level jet or trying to develop a wake low
is not clear. Confidence is low for how this will evolve and
trends with convection across IA will need to be monitored into
this evening. Have bumped up winds tonight, with gusts into the
30-35 mph range but if what the HRRR and some of the models are
showing does continue in later runs this evening, its possible
a short duration wind headline may be needed. The models show
these stronger winds diminishing in the predawn hours.
Winds turn westerly Wednesday morning and now appear to be a bit
stronger than previously expected, especially along and north of
I-80 where wind gusts to 30 mph are possible. Winds slowly turn
northwesterly Wednesday afternoon with speeds/gusts slowly
diminishing in the mid/late afternoon. This may allow a lake
breeze to develop into northwest IN by late afternoon but
confidence is low for a lake breeze into northeast IL late
Wednesday afternoon.
The next system will bring a chance of showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms to the area late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning. Confidence is fairly low for coverage and its
possible that much of the area may remain dry, with the best
chances across the northwest cwa. cms
Thursday through Tuesday:
Warm air advection driven showers (and some embedded
thunderstorms) may be ongoing across portions of
northern/northwestern IL at the start of the period Thursday
morning as a surface warm front lifts northward into the area.
However, the focus for this early morning warm air advection
driven convection is expected to shift north of the area through
midday as the surface warm front continues its northward shift
towards the WI state line. Thereafter, a primarily precipitation
free afternoon is anticipated, as we await our next good
potential for showers and storms with an approaching cold front
later Thursday night into Friday morning.
While most areas may end up dry Thursday afternoon, temperatures
could end up varying considerably across far northeastern IL
(northern Chicago suburbs). This is due to fact that Lake
Michigan may slow the northward progression of the warm front
into WI near the lake, thus resulting in continued persistent
cool east-southeasterly winds through the day. In such a scenario,
temperatures Thursday afternoon would be held down in the lower
60s near the lake in far northeastern IL, while areas to the south
of the warm front experience summer-like temperatures (in the low
to mid-80s) and breezy south winds.
Mild weather will continue into Thursday night as our area remains
locked in the warm sector of the surface low tracking northward
across the upper Midwest. This low is forecast to occlude over
northern MN and far southwestern Ontario into early Friday
morning. As it does so, the attendant surface cold front will
slide eastward into our area very late Thursday night into
Friday. A period of showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms, is
likely to accompany this front, with the highest chances (60-80%)
coming early Friday morning. We will need to continue to monitor
the potential for any hydrologic concerns during this time frame,
especially given the recent heavy rainfall the area has
experienced. However, signs continue to point at the heaviest
rainfall amounts potentially remaining west of the NWS Chicago
forecast area in closer proximity to the track of the surface
low.
The rain threat is expected to end from west-to-east on Friday
following the cold frontal passage. Thereafter, temperatures are
favored to return closer to normal going into the weekend. Another
approaching disturbance may result in another period of
precipitation late Saturday into Saturday night, but the signal
for this is not all that strong at this point. Otherwise, slightly
warmer temperatures are favored into early next week with the
overall weather pattern continuing to look rather active across
the central CONUS.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Aviation Key Messages:
- Decaying SHRA moving across the area late tonight
- A period of strong (>40 kt) south-southwest wind gusts
possibly accompanying the decaying SHRA, with at least 25-30
kt range gusts appearing probable
- Potential for a period of MVFR CIGs early Wednesday, primarily
at RFD
- Diminishing winds turn northwest late Wednesday and eventually
light northeast later Wednesday evening
Surface winds will continue to back to the southeast early this
evening, in response to low pressure currently moving east
across the mid-Missouri River Valley.
Area of strong/severe TSRA across IA-NW MO-KS are expected to
weaken quickly as they move east this evening and outrun better
instability to our west. Decaying showers will likely make it
into northern IL, though may be only for a brief period
especially farther east into the Chicago metro terminals. Of
greater interest, has been multiple successive runs of the HRRR
CAM, which had shown a consistent signal for very strong west-
southwest winds of 40-50+ kts associated with the decaying
showers. Latest (22Z) HRRR run has backed off these higher wind
magnitudes, though along with other guidance continues to
suggest a period of gusty winds near 30 kt overnight. Will
continue to monitor trends with convection to our west and any
associated enhanced winds.
Forecast soundings indicate a period of MVFR ceilings are
possible behind a cold front which will move through the area
pre-dawn, with a better signal farther west/northwest for KRFD
than our other terminals. These should erode after sunrise
Wednesday, with breezy west winds expected. Winds are expected
to diminish and veer northwest late in the day as surface high
pressure spreads into the area, and then shift northeast later
Wednesday evening.
Ratzer
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the IL
nearshore waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for the IN
nearshore waters.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
851 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
All is quiet attm across the Four State Region as our cu field has
completely dissipated with just some high blowoff cirrus trying to
invade our far west and northwest counties attm. Winds should go
mostly light overnight and thus we could see some fog once again
but it should not be to the extent that we saw early this morning
prompting Dense Fog Advisories.
Watching a complex of thunderstorms currently across SE KS,
trying to enter northern and NE OK attm. Upper flow is mostly
zonal to WSW aloft across the Southern Plains and upstream of our
region but this activity is trying to drift slowly south and east.
Latest HRRR tries to generate what looks like a cold pool with
this convection late tonight with that convection continuing south
and east with some of it entering far northern McCurtain County
closer to 12z Wed. Did add just a little pops across our far
northwest zones to account for this possibility as a southwest low
level jet will likely continue feeding this complex through the
night.
Otherwise, temps are in the ballpark so no additional changes were
necessary.
Update out shortly...13.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
The latest water vapor imagery indicates a rather broad area of
mid and upper level dry air from the Southern Plains into the
Southeast CONUS. With a surface ridge moving farther east tonight
while a lee surface trough strengthens over the High Plains, low-
level moisture will begin to gradually increase. This should
result in more low clouds during the early morning hours of
Wednesday. Patchy fog will also be possible but current thinking
is increased surface wind speeds and increased low-level cloud
cover may limit the potential for dense fog as compared to Tuesday
morning.
A weak disturbance in the zonal flow aloft will provide the
potential for at least a isolated showers or thunderstorms on
Wednesday. The first opportunity will be limited to portions of
Southeast Oklahoma and extreme Northeast Texas Wednesday morning.
However, rain chances will spread southward during the afternoon.
There may be a brief lull in the rain chances early Wednesday
evening, but the flow aloft will quickly become more southwesterly
and will amplify resulting in a rapid increase in deep layer
moisture. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop from Kansas southward into Texas ahead of a cold
front and dryline. These storms should move into the area after
midnight Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Strong large scale
forcing and abundant deep layer moisture may result in locally
heavy rainfall, especially across Deep East Texas. Severe weather
chances appear low at this time.
CN
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing Thursday
morning, especially across Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas,
East Texas, and portions of Western Louisiana. Vertical ascent is
expected to be quite strong during the day Thursday as a shortwave
trough moves east-northeast across the forecast area. Combined
with precipitable water values over 2 inches, locally heavy
rainfall is likely, particularly south of Interstate 20 across
East Texas and into Western Louisiana. Thursday`s convection is
expected to be well ahead of the cold front, and more showers and
thunderstorms are likely as the front moves into the area on
Friday before stalling north of Interstate 20. The heaviest
rainfall rates are generally expected on Thursday, but the threat
of heavy rain should finally diminish Friday afternoon as the
front begins lifting back northward into Oklahoma and Arkansas.
The remainder of the long-term forecast will remain quite
unsettled. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist and a series of
weak perturbations in the flow will keep chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Friday and Saturday.
Rain chances may increase across the northwest half of the area on
Sunday as a stronger shortwave trough lifts northeast across Texas
and Oklahoma. Deep southerly flow will provide plenty of warm air
advection and moisture to fuel convection.
Despite the persistent rain chances, during the weekend, the
strong warm air advection will keep a warming trend in place.
Daytime high temperatures should be well into the 80s and possibly
into the lower 90s early next week. With the rainfall and wet
soils, very humid conditions can be expected to accompany the
heat.
CN
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
VFR remains airspace wide this evening as clouds continue to
clear on out. Clear skies, calmer winds and a close T/Td relation
will once again promote the chance for reduced VSBY at area
terminals. Flight conditions will recover through the morning
across central and and eastern terminals as the BR/FG lifts and
burns off, with some FEW/SCT prevailing through the late morning
before a return to mostly SKC. Cross sections this evening look to
promote some BKN low CIGs across the western terminals through
the afternoon and evening.
RK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 63 87 70 78 / 0 10 20 90
MLU 62 87 66 80 / 0 0 10 60
DEQ 62 85 64 75 / 10 10 30 90
TXK 64 85 68 77 / 0 10 30 90
ELD 61 86 64 77 / 0 0 10 70
TYR 66 85 68 79 / 0 30 60 90
GGG 65 85 68 78 / 0 30 40 90
LFK 65 85 69 81 / 0 40 30 70
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...53