Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/22/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
624 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy to areas of frost possible issue tonight east half and
northeast; mainly in low lying valley areas.
- Weak system arrives Monday; mainly frontal passage with light
rain chances 40 to 50 percent after midnight.
- Larger wave with severe risk ramping late week/early next week
with strong warm air advection/frontal lift. Several rounds of
rain are expected with both systems.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024
.Short Term /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Confidence Short Term: High
Pleasant day today with high pressure over central Nebraska
providing the region with mainly sunny skies and lighter northwest
winds today. Tonight the ridge will continue to slide east southeast
with increasing warm air advection into Iowa tonight. Tonight will
feature only a small risk of patchy frost in the east prior to much
warmer temperatures on the way for Monday. Water vapor imagery this
morning shows the next system crashing through the Canadian Rockies
with a lower level trough now evident on a subjective H850 analysis.
Though the wave is rather impressive and will result in some rapid
development of a lee side trough late tonight, the sprawling high
over our area today and this evening will be limiting much moisture
return in the next 24 hours. The high will continue to move into the
Southern Plains and the Gulf Coast through early Monday. Mins
tonight will still be rather cool; especially east. Some frost may
develop in low lying river valley areas that are more sheltered, but
with southwest winds beginning to increase between 10 and 13z
tomorrow, the coverage will likely be somewhat limited. Meanwhile,
as the trough enters the eastern Dakotas at 12z, southwest winds
will increase through the remainder of the day and push H850
temperatures back to a range of 7 to 10C by 00z. Models continue to
show some shower development in a pocket of strong thetae advection
from central to northeast Iowa by mid to late afternoon, then
farther south into the evening hours. Instability remains rather
limited, but a few rumbles of thunder may occur with the stronger
thetae push over the northeast/southeast during the late afternoon
and early evening. With the warm air advection partially offset by
clouds/potential showers, highs will be much warmer but not as high
as they could be under complete sun. Highs tomorrow will range from
the mid to upper 60s northeast/southeast to the lower 70s in
central/western sections. With limited moisture return, rainfall
amounts will likely range from a trace to no more than a tenth of an
inch. Rainfall amount probs show chances for greater than a tenth of
an inch only at 15% over most of the region. They also show some
support for a quarter inch in the far south, but present model
biases of the NAM and HRRR are contributing to a more northerly
displacement and faster return of moisture into Iowa. The
lesser rainfall solutions will be leaned on, which are
reasonable with the Gulf moisture field not supportive of
moisture return here, though some moisture finally arrives along
the trailing cold front as it enters the Ohio River Valley or
at fastest over northern Missouri east to the Ohio River Valley.
.Long Term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Confidence: Medium
In the medium range, we return to northwest flow for several days as
Canadian High Pressure takes a vacation in lower Michigan until
Thursday morning. For Tuesday, we will have to deal with another
upper level trough at H700 passing southeast across the region;
especially affecting the northeast. The influx of colder air aloft
will likely bring partly sunny skies to a portion of the northeast/
east during the day. Along with that, H850 temperatures fall back to
1 to 3C over the northeast while the central to southwest areas
remain about 4 to 6C. Northwest wind and mixing will bring highs
back to the upper 50s northeast to the mid 60s in the south.
Depending on the timing of the approaching second trough Tuesday
morning, highs northeast might top out to the lower 60s but some
uncertainty remains. Though some instability and light
showers/isolated storms are expected with the trough, most of the
steeper lapse rates continue into Wisconsin at this time. As we move
into the midweek period, the northwest flow will quickly give way to
zonal flow across the Central Plains. Weak high pressure will move
over the area Wednesday with a transition back to lowering pressure
into the Rockies as a stronger H500 wave approaches the west coast.
It appears that some stronger warm air advection late Wednesday
night may spark a few showers over either eastern Nebraska or
far southwest Iowa. For now, our airmass will generally still be
too dry to see any precipitation across our forecast area. We
are likely too generous with PoP and any precipitation into
Thursday morning. Highs Wednesday in the transition period will
remain a bit cooler as the high recedes and southeast winds
return. Upper 50s to lower 60s should rule the day. Thursday
will see the return of moisture; mainly later in the evening and
overnight into Friday. Confidence on overall evolution of the
late week into Saturday system has diminished, even though there
is decent consistency on it mainly being a Friday event and
generally exiting the region by early Saturday morning. The
overnight convection Thursday into Friday and early on Friday is
more likely to be elevated with a second round developing
southwest across Missouri/Kansas then moving northeast Friday
afternoon and evening into southern/eastern Iowa. This would
have a better potential to be surface based. Stronger jet
support is also expected later in the day Friday/Friday evening.
Though much depends again on whether the system begins
occluding or continues to strengthen as it nears Iowa, this will
have at least a similar potential to last Tuesdays event. With
the Gulf now available, some decent rainfall rates/amounts are
again expected. Temperatures will warm from Thursday into the
weekend with a potential for 70s to lower 80s by either Saturday
or Sunday. There remains a signal in both the EC/GFS for a
second system nearly on the heels of the Friday storm; arriving
Saturday night/Sunday with more strong storm potential. Rather
impressive wind fields are forecast with the second system as
well in both model solutions. Lots of time to gear up for both
systems, but will likely concentrate on the Friday to Saturday
system this week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024
VFR conditions expected to prevail across all sites through the
TAF period. While there are some chances for light
precipitation, chances have trended downward and scattered
nature do not warrant mentions at this point in time. Mentions
may be needed post 00z/just outside of this TAF period.
Otherwise, winds will shift southwesterly and become windy by
mid- late morning with sustained winds around 20kts and gusts to
around 30kts across the sites.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...REV
AVIATION...Curtis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
528 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024
Dry west to southwest flow aloft will continue throughout the week
with plenty of sun and temperatures warming back above normal. A
couple of Pacific storm systems move in for the latter part of the
week, bringing strong winds, blowing dust and not much else.
Strong winds begin each day from Thursday through Sunday, with
considerable blowing dust and critical fire weather conditions.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024
Dryline/cold front has pushed west across entire CWA, with brisk
east winds continuing across much of the area. Thus some low
clouds/fog will continue tonight along east slopes of the Sac
Mtns. Satellite does show very slow eastward erosion of the those
clouds and HRRR does show this retreat also, with the low clouds
then returning to the east slopes late tonight. Elsewhere, weak
shortwave in sub-tropical jet over the Baja will spread some
mid/high clouds to the area tonight into Monday morning. This
feature could bring a stray shower to Hudspeth County Monday, but
will leave out of grids for now. Surface winds turn
south/southwest Monday which should flush the last of the
stratus/fog off the east slopes of the Sacs.
Dry southwest flow dominates the area into the weekend. Main
impact comes at the end of the work week as a couple of Pacific
storms move across the area. First storm moves in Thursday across
the Four Corners and southern Colorado; much too far north for any
showers, but this will increase winds Thursday afternoon. Winds
look to remain under advisory criteria, but will bring fire
conditions up to or exceeding Red Flag criteria. Friday is a
tweener day as it will sit in between the exiting low and a new
low coming in from the west. Still breezy Friday but should
(hopefully) drop back below Red Flag conditions. Next storm moves
across well north of the area but again increases winds for both
Saturday and Sunday. Thus, expect Red Flag conditions again both
these days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW030-SCT250. The winds will be somewhat on
the breezy side (10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts) and from
the ESE until around 01Z. The winds will subside to AOB 10 kts
thereafter. They may become breezy again especially at KTCS after
18Z. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024
The latter half of the week looks to be quite impactful with gusty
winds and critical fire conditions developing. Warming
temperatures the first half of the week will slowly dry fuels out,
while Pacific storms moving north of the area will produce strong
winds Thursday through Sunday. Red Flag conditions possible
Thursday before a brief respite in the strong winds Friday.
However the strong winds return for Saturday and Sunday, likely
bringing back Red Flag conditions. Temperatures will remain above
normal.
Min RHs: Lowlands 20-30% Monday, decreasing to 8-12% Tuesday into
the weekend. Mountains 25-35% Monday, decreasing to 10-20% Tuesday
into the weekend. Vent rates good-very good Monday then excellent
Tuesday through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 51 83 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 43 76 53 84 / 0 10 0 0
Las Cruces 47 82 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 43 79 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 32 58 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 49 80 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 44 74 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 46 81 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 49 82 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 50 81 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 40 81 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 45 83 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 42 75 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 48 84 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 46 81 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 48 80 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 42 80 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 44 83 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 49 81 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 44 78 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 33 73 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 35 69 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 32 68 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 39 74 44 79 / 10 0 0 0
Hillsboro 43 78 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 42 79 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 40 76 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 42 77 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 36 83 35 84 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 34 78 32 79 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 43 76 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 48 83 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 47 82 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 47 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 49 79 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...36-Texeira
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
953 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly Clear tonight with Frost
- Morning sunshine with high clouds arriving on Monday; Warmer
- Increasing rain chances Tuesday with low chance for
thunderstorms, temperatures near or below normal through Thursday
- Active pattern likely to return late this week into the weekend
with above normal temperatures
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024
Forecast is in great shape so not notable updates were needed.
Surface high pressure is settling into the area which has allowed
winds to become light and variable while skies have cleared out.
Conditions still look good for temperatures to drop to the low to
mid 30s and for patchy to areas of frost to form.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024
Synopsis:
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure in
place over KS and OK. A surface ridge of high pressure extended east
from the high across IL to northern Indiana. GOES16 shows cloud
cover from last night has exited east of the forecast area and
scattered diurnal CU had formed across much of Central Indiana.
Surface flow remained from the northwest and dew points remained dry
in the middle 20s. Aloft, a deep polar low was in place over Hudson
Bay, keeping a northwest cyclonic flow in place across the Great
Lakes and our region. Ridging aloft was found on the lee side of the
Rockies. This was resulting in subsidence and the creation of the
strong surface high across the plains and Ohio Valley.
Tonight...
Models show the ridging aloft over the Rockies quickly moving across
the Plains tonight. This will help to continue to create subsidence
across the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The lower levels
depict strong surface ridging remaining across Central Indiana along
with a weakening surface pressure gradient. GOES16 shows clear skies
upstream. Forecast soundings and time heights also show a dry column
through the overnight hours. Thus a mostly clear sky and cool
conditions are expected overnight with light winds. This will be
ideal conditions for frost. Dew points in the middle 20s should
easily allow surface temps to fall to the middle 30s for lows, again
favorable for Frost. Thus the ongoing Frost Advisory will continue.
Monday...
Models on Monday start the day with the strong surface high centered
over OK and TX, with a strong ridge axis still extending northeast
across Indiana toward the Great Lakes. Aloft, strong ridging will
still be in place over Indiana. Forecast soundings show a dry column
through the morning, however trend toward saturation aloft during
the afternoon. This upper level saturation will be due to the
arrival of an upper level wave on the backside of the departing
ridge aloft. HRRR and other models suggest the high level saturation
arriving in the afternoon from the northwest. Thus look for a mostly
sunny morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon.
Warm air advection is in play on Monday as west to southwest flow
becomes more predominate within the lower levels. This should allow
for a warmer day on Monday as highs reach the low to middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024
Monday night through Tuesday night...
Quiet weather conditions are likely to persist through the beginning
of the extended as surface ridging remains across central Indiana.
An approaching shortwave and associated low pressure system will
then move in late Tuesday bringing an end to the stretch of drier
weather over the past few days. Subsidence induced dry air across
the mid-south may limit overall gulf moisture return and rainfall
amounts. Despite this, increasing large scale ascent and warm air
advection combined with a relatively narrow corridor of sufficient
moisture supports widespread precipitation. The best chance for rain
will likely be during the afternoon/evening and QPF amounts should
generally be around half an inch or less. Weak destabilization
could support a few embedded storms, but this potential is low.
Look for return flow and increasing clouds to keep temperatures
warmer Monday night with lows in the mid-upper 40s. Rain/clouds will
likely limit diurnal heating Tuesday. Highs are expected to range
from the mid 50s to mid 60s. A progressive pattern aloft should help
push the aforementioned system further east overnight allowing drier
conditions to return.
Wednesday through Thursday...
Cold air advection and surface high pressure building in behind the
departing low will allow for brief cooler and quiet weather
conditions to persist into Thursday. Below normal highs in the mid
50s to low 60s are expected for Wednesday. Temperatures falling into
the 30s under good radiational cooling conditions Thursday morning
leads to some frost concern as high pressure becomes centered over
the Great Lakes Region. The greatest potential for frost should be
across northeast portions of the area closer to the high.
Late week...
Models begin to diverge by late week into the weekend which limits
forecast confidence, but there is a general signal for an active
pattern to return. A low end threat for strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out heading into the weekend as increasing
instability and mid-upper level flow from approaching disturbances
could support organized convection. However, confidence is low due
to the disagreement between guidance. CSU machine learning currently
shows low probabilities for severe weather over central Indiana
during this period. The better setup for severe weather looks to be
further west where better instability and deep layer shear is
likely. Warm air advection will likely result in above normal
temperatures during this period.
One thing to note, Indianapolis is already in the top 13 for wettest
April`s on record. Numerous chances for rainfall Tuesday, and then
again late next week into the weekend will likely push Indianapolis
at least into the top 10 for wettest April`s on record.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 747 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024
Impacts:
- Southwesterly winds Monday increasing to 7 to 12 kts during the
afternoon
Discussion:
VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period.
Strong high pressure and upper level ridging will lead to continued
subsidence and dry weather this TAF period.
Forecast soundings remain dry through 18Z Monday. Thus a mostly
clear sky is expected with mainly unlimited ceilings. After 18Z
Monday, an upper trough pushing SE from the northern plains will
spread high CI across the TAF sites.
Winds will start off out of the NW and become variable and somewhat
light overnight. By early Monday morning, all sites will see
southwesterly winds. These winds will increase through the day
tomorrow, becoming 7-12 kts by midday to the afternoon hours.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...KF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
731 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions this evening and again
Monday, especially in the west and central.
- Rain showers return Monday night.
- Warmer than normal on Monday, then becoming much colder and
breezy on Tuesday with rain showers turning to snow showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 452 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024
Current synoptic setup consists of broad mid-level troughing over
the eastern Great Lakes Region this evening with surface high
pressure centered over the central Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front
is continuing to dip into Upper Michigan per latest RAP analysis.
With RH`s in the upper teens/low 20s and wind gusts up to 25 mph
mainly across the west and WI/MI border, elevated fire weather
conditions will persist through this evening.
Tonight, shortwave ridging will expand across Upper Michigan. And,
return flow ahead of upstream low will counteract any radiational
cooling due to surface ridging. So, despite overnight lows dropping
into the mid to upper 20s over much of the forecast area tonight,
western counties and the spine of the Keweenaw will generally be in
the low 30s with that southwest return flow. Currently,
temperatures across the area are ranging from the low to mid 40s
across the northern half to mid 50s across the southern
counties.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 450 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024
Elevated fire weather concerns on Monday as well as the early week
system will be the main focus of the extended forecast. This will be
followed by a brief dry period that holds through the end of the
work week. With positive 500mb height anomalies setting up over the
eastern CONUS and negative anomalies next weekend into the following
week, a more active and wet patter is expected to shape up as
shortwaves ride northeast into the Great Lakes/Midwest. Ample
moisture flowing off the Gulf of Mexico during this period will
support systems developing in the lee side of the Rockey. As they
follow northeast trajectories into the Midwest/Great Lakes, they
bring repetitive chances for precip which should help alleviate fire
weather concerns at the end of this month and into the early part of
May. This southwest flow also sets up for temperatures to trend to
above normal late this week into the following. Both warmer and
wetter patterns are nicely captured by the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day
outlooks.
Starting on Monday, WAA from southwest flow sets the UP up for
temperatures to be well above normal in the 60s save for the east
which will stay cooler with flow off Lake Michigan. Biased corrected
guidance does a great job highlighting the downslope areas that
could experience better warming over the west with the southwest
gradient wind. The ~1kft low level inversion noted in model
soundings is removed by the afternoon, bringing deep mixing up to 3-
5kft back and elevating fire weather concerns. Min RHs bottom out in
the low 20s to low 30s; lowest in the west, especially where there
is downsloping. Lowest fire weather concerns are in the east where
there is moist flow off Lake Michigan. Southwest wind gusts are
expected to increase to around 20-25 mph by the afternoon. Mid and
high level clouds begin to increase from the west ahead of the next
shortwave in the afternoon which may limiting mixing later in the
day.
Monday night, a shortwave over Manitoba moves southeast, becoming
centered over Lake Superior by Tuesday morning. The shortwave then
continues southeast over the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. WAA
and Isentropic ascent kick off showers over the west Monday evening.
The line of showers moves east across the UP Tuesday night with a
period of dry weather expected behind it; timing of the dry period
is still uncertain yet. The associated sfc low strengthens as it
moves over Lake Superior Monday night thanks to the approaching left
exit region of the jet. As the low makes its way east-southeast off
Lake Superior toward southern Ontario Tuesday morning, a strong cold
front is forced south over the UP. Due to the cold front, highs for
the day (aside from the south central UP) will be in the morning. A
non diurnal curve is expected with temps dropping north to south
throughout the day. Given the time of the year, this steep
temperature drop is not as concerning with the higher sun angle.
This cold front will force a line of showers moving south across the
UP, yield north wind gusts up to 20-30 mph, and transition rain
showers to snow or a rain/snow mix for much of the UP.
Accumulations, if any, look to remain below an inch and in the
northern half of the UP. This CAA also will bring temps Tuesday
night into the low to mid 20s; a few spots dipping into the teens
cant be ruled out.
Sfc high pressure returns to the Great Lakes on Wednesday bringing
back dry weather. High pressure shifts eastward through the Great
Lakes basin through Friday while mid level ridging over the rockies
moves east over the Great Lakes. This does bring some drier air and
lower RHs back to the UP, however the limiting factor for potential
fire weather concerns is that winds are expected to remain light,
mainly below 15 mph. The southwest flow is expected to bring temps
back to above normal late next week and into the weekend. There is
fairly good model agreement for a shortwave over the rockies
Thursday night to ride northeast, passing through the Upper Great
Lakes on Saturday. With PWATs highlighting another surge of good
moisture off the Gulf of Mexico, this system and additional
shortwaves into the following week look to bring periods of rain
showers Friday night into Saturday and then again early in the
following week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024
With very dry air persisting thru the low-levels during this fcst
period, VFR will continue at IWD/CMX/SAW. After a light winds
tonight, sw winds will quickly increase Mon morning in response to
low pres tracking ese across s central Canada. Expect gusts to
around 25kt at all terminals by late morning or early aftn. In the
early evening, shra may develop into western Upper MI, possibly
affecting IWD, but no restrictions blo VFR are anticipated.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 450 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024
Stability from high pressure over Lake Superior keeps winds less
than 20 kts across the lake through tonight. The exception to this
would be over the far east where some northwest gusts to 25 kts are
possible into this evening. Winds turn southerly tonight, then
southwest on Monday as stability over the lake keeps winds below 20
kts. The next thing to focus on is a low pressure system moving east-
southeast over Lake Superior Monday night with a cold front dropping
south Across the lake behind it on Tuesday. This frontal passage
accompanied by a strong pressure gradient on the back side of the
low will result in a brief period of low end northeast gales over
the north central portions of the lake Tuesday morning into the
early afternoon (~70-95% chance for wind gusts exceeding 34 kts).
Probabilities of gusts exceeding 40 kts are less than 25%.
Otherwise, widespread northeast winds of 20-30 kts are expected on
Tuesday as instability increases. Northeast becoming east winds
diminish behind the low from west to east, returning below 20 kts by
Wednesday morning as high pressure returns. Winds then are expected
to continue below 20 kts through Thursday as the high pressure
shifts east over the Great Lakes Basin.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
LSZ243-244-263-264-266.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LSZ250-251.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Jablonski