Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/17/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1038 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A beautiful spring day Wednesday with sunshine, light winds,
and warm afternoon temperatures.
- A strong cold front is expected early Thursday morning, with
strong north winds and sharply cooler temperatures Thursday.
- A second strong cold front will reinforce the cool air on
Saturday, bringing temperatures much below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
18z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows a surging area
of stronger winds and developing blowing dust from Scott City to
Elkhart and this band of stronger winds could lead to high wind
criteria later this afternoon for the counties in the high winds
warning. The departing surface and 500 mb low is located in
northeast Nebraska.
Tonight as the storm system continues to progress north and east
into Minnesota we should see the winds start to relax after
sunset as an area of high pressure builds in the Texas
panhandle. Winds should subside to 5-15 mph by midnight.
Otherwise with subsidence in the upper levels we should see
clearing skies and lows in the lower to mid 40s.
Wednesday should have little to no impactful weather. Winds will
turn to the south to southwest with a lee side surface low
developing in eastern Colorado during the afternoon with a
passing shortwave in the Rockies. 850 mb temps will warm to
21-22 (C) with sunny skies through the day and highs will reach
into the lower to mid 80s.
Wednesday night momentum from an upper level trough in the
northern plains will push the surface low eastward and a strong
cold front will race through southwest Kansas late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. A tight postfrontal pressure
gradient is indicating we will have gusty winds nearing sunrise
Thursday morning with the 12Z HRRR 48 hour forecast showing
20-30 kt sustained with pockets of 40-50 kt gusts. The stronger
cold air advection should hold off until the during the day on
Thursday so lows will fall into the lower to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Winds will continue to be strong on Thursday along with cold air
advection through the day. 850 mb temps during the day will only
warm from 2 (C) in the mid morning to 5 (C) in the afternoon.
Highs will only reach into the upper 50s to lower 60s. EPS
ensembles also have an area from highway 83 on east of 60-100%
chance of 34 kt gusts or higher from 18-00Z suggesting that
strong winds will likely continue through much of the day on
Thursday before relaxing after sunset with a high pressure
center moving in.
Upper level winds stay fairly zonal for Friday and then another
shortwave in the northern plains will drop a second strong cold
front through western Kansas on Saturday with daytime 850 mb
temperatures falling to around 0 (C). Deterministic and ensemble
models are also acting fairly optimistic about some rain
developing in the upslope flow and the post frontal 700 mb lift
with some 30-40% chance of 0.1 inch or more in the EPS and GEFS
ensembles however given the lower level moisture doesn`t look
too promising I would tend to cut back expectations on
precipitation this weekend.
Sunday morning we will have to monitor for the possibility of
frost along and north of a Liberal to Larned line as NBMv4.1
forecast lows are at 31-34.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Excellent flying weather is expected through 18z Wed, with
VFR/SKC and light winds. After 18z Wed, southeast winds will
return to the airports, with some modest gusts of 20-22 kts
at DDC/GCK. A strong cold front is expected just after this
TAF period, around 12z Thu, with intense north winds gusting
to near 40 kts.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe thunderstorms will continue to move northeast across the
area through this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes remain possible with the strongest storms.
- Outside of the thunderstorm, winds will gust to 45 mph or higher through
9 pm. A wind advisory is in effect for much of the area.
- Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms is likely
Thursday and Thursday evening before mainly dry and cool weather
is expected over the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
A busy weather day with a north-south line of strong-severe
thunderstorms currently over the central CWA and smaller line moving
into the northwest CWA. The HRRR continues to show this first line
moving slowly east and out of the CWA by 9 pm that will continue to
pose a threat for all hazards. The HRRR is also showing the
northern line moving northeast but additional storms will backbuild
into the CWA through 9 pm. Here again the HRRR is showing better
updraft helicity with these storms, so these storms will pose a
large hail and tornado risk into the evening hours.
I have also issued a wind advisory for the northern two-thirds of
the CWA through 9 pm as we have already been seeing wind gusts
outside of thunderstorms to 45 mph and higher at some observation
sites. The RAP is showing a a tight pressure gradient over the CWA
through mid evening and obs upstream are showing even stronger
gusts, so think we will continue to see these strong wind gusts into
the evening.
I expect the rain to move out of the area by late this evening and
we should see some dry time late tonight through at least Wednesday
evening as a shortwave ridge moves across the area.
Britt
&&
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
A round of showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the area
on Thursday and Thursday evening as the LREF is showing many of its
members bringing a northern stream trough and an attendant front
across the area. Then dry weather is expected over the weekend in
addition to below normal temperatures. Lows on Friday night into
Sunday night will drop into the mid-upper 30s in a few locations.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Showers and storms have moved out of the region this evening, so
should have dry, VFR conditions for the forecast period.
Otherwise, the main issue will be the gusty south winds, which
will veer to the west between 13z and 15z Wednesday. Could see
gusts up to 30 kts at times, then the winds will diminish by
sunset on Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
646 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Ongoing rain with a chance for a few strong thunderstorms
along I-90 later this afternoon and evening. Rain continues
through tomorrow evening.
- A few small chances for showers beyond the short term, with
southern MN on Thursday and along and east of I-94 on Monday
into Tuesday next week.
- Temperatures remain in the 50s and 60s for highs, with lows in
the 30s and 40s with frost/freeze probable on Saturday &
Sunday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Regional radar imagery shows a broad swath of precipitation ranging
from Nebraska up through Minnesota and down through portions of Iowa
and Missouri. There is a break within the cloud cover and
precipitation over western Iowa, and this area of clearing is the
location to watch for development which could scrape southern
Minnesota later this afternoon and evening. RAP soundings and
analysis shows the potential for a bit of instability to build
within this area of clearing, resulting in little CIN and MUCAPE of
500-1000 J/KG. This couples with a broad area of wind shear
associated with a pair of frontal boundaries stretching across the
area, with a warm front draped over central to north-central Iowa
and a cold front southwest through eastern Nebraska. The warm front
will be the key feature to watch as it would provide the wind shear
needed for a few storms to maintain strength, should they form
within the area of clearing in western Iowa. Right now, the
expectation is for a couple storms to move through the periphery of
the MPX CWA, with most of the stronger storms remaining southeast of
the area along the area more favorable within the warm region south
of the warm front and east of the cold front, giving us a marginal
severe weather threat for the I-90 corridor which includes a small
hail, wind, and tornado chance. Rain showers will continue to churn
across the area north of the warm front which is where most of the
CWA ends up, with a healthy amount of rain already having fallen and
another half to full inch expected before it exits later on
Wednesday. Rumbles of thunder are likely to continue through the
duration of the system even after the severe weather threat ends
later this evening. Aside from the rain, the strong surface pressure
gradient resulting in strong sustained winds will continue through
this evening with winds at 20-30mph primarily out of the east, with
gusts from 40-50mph remaining possible. A few stronger gusts up to
55mph could mix down from any of the stronger showers which develop
due to the momentum enhancement from precipitation, however this
will be on an isolated basis. Winds will begin to shift
northwesterly by tomorrow morning as the surface low slides
eastwards, with speeds briefly weakening overnight before increasing
to 15-20mph gusting to 30-35mph tomorrow.
As the upper level system occludes and begins to weaken as it heads
towards the Great Lakes, the surface low will follow with weakened
frontal boundaries, resulting in a downwards trend in rainfall
intensity with little in the way of storms overnight and through
much of tomorrow, with dry conditions by tomorrow evening. This
system will quickly push eastwards, followed by another shot of
light rain moving northeast across the plains which could give
southern Minnesota and perhaps portions of western Wisconsin another
shot of light rain on Thursday. This second, weaker system will be
followed by synoptic scale ridging aloft which should keep
conditions fairly mild but also a little cooler for the upcoming
weekend, with clear skies allowing temperatures to drop and a chance
for a hard frost/freeze both Saturday and Sunday mornings. This
ridging moves eastwards by Monday, with a hint of another system by
the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
A large band of showers over WI will continue lifting north
this evening. Other scattered showers and thunderstorms across
southern MN will continue lifting north this evening and will
increase in coverage with time. Gusty winds will ease as the
surface low tracks across the area overnight, then increase from
the northwest behind it Wednesday. Conditions should
deteriorate behind the low with slow improvement as it pulls
away Wednesday.
KMSP...A line of weak thunderstorms oriented with I-35 continues
to approach from the south. These may come close to MSP, but
expecting them to remain mostly to the west as they begin to
curve westward around the low. Will closely monitor. Showers
will increase in coverage again later this evening as the low
tracks overhead. Conditions should deteriorate following the low
to MVFR and possibly IFR, although models have been too
pessimistic with cigs.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind W 15-20G30 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 20G30 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Blue Earth-
Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-
Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-
Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-
Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Dunn-
Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Borghoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
718 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A low pressure tracks across the region late on Wednesday,
resulting in two rounds of rain showers 1) tonight and 2)
Wednesday afternoon with a 6-12 hour break in between (longest
west).
- East winds gusting to advisory criteria (45 mph) expected across
the Keweenaw and eastern U.P. late tonight into Wednesday.
- Temperatures trend below-normal behind a cold front Thursday
night bringing low chances for light diurnal showers and
perhaps a bit of lake effect rain/snow mix for
Friday/Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024
A deep 990mb surface low continues to spin over northeast NE this
afternoon, with a tight pressure gradient developing across
Midwest/upper Great Lakes ahead of it as a 1028mb Hudson High
remains sprawled out over Ontario. This is resulting in
strengthening southerly flow across the Midwest (see the RAP
analysis for an 850mb LLJ at 55+ kts!) and robust warm air advection
into the region. This in turn will bring rain into the area by the
evening, but the rain shield so far remains off to our southwest
across southeast MN.
High clouds continue to stream into the UP ahead of the approaching
system , but this seems to be having a pretty limited impact on
temperatures so far. Most of the area is reaching well into the 50s,
though across the Keweenaw and nearer to the shorelines of the Great
Lakes (mainly where easterly flow is onshore), temperatures may only
peak in the upper 40s and lower 50s this afternoon. Our well-mixed,
dry environment also seems to be winning out over cloud cover in
terms of dewpoints this afternoon; dewpoints are plummeting into the
teens and lower 20s across most of the UP away from the lakeshores.
Winds are on the increase across the UP this afternoon, already
gusting up to 20-30mph across the western half of the UP. As we head
into the late afternoon and evening, ensemble guidance shows around
a 60-80% chance for some spots throughout the western UP to gust
higher to 35mph - highest chances across the Keweenaw, where there
are also high probabilities (80%+) for gusts to 40mph. Winds can be
overdone at times in the hi-res guidance, but will still be
comfortable sticking with these advisory-level gusts given the look
of soundings tapping into those higher winds aloft. With elevated
fire weather conditions, particularly along the MI/WI state line,
don`t burn!
Otherwise, rain still looks to hold off until closer to 00Z, but a
few showers may begin to approach the MI/WI border and western Lake
Superior before sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 458 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024
The primary weather maker for the extended period is the 990 mb low
analyzed over northeast Nebraska at 3 PM EDT. This system brings two
distinct waves of rain 1) tonight and 2) later on Wednesday.
Additionally, strong east-southeast winds gusting to around 45 mph
are expected on the Keweenaw and across the eastern UP late tonight
until after the second round of rain later on Wednesday. We dry out
Wednesday night and Thursday ahead of a reinforcing cold front
Thursday night, which brings additional rain shower chances. The
cold core upper level low stays overhead Friday into Saturday
bringing chances for diurnal showers and perhaps a bit of lake
effect precip too.
Beginning with tonight, rain chances ramp up quickly as the systems`
warm front approaches from the southwest. I expect showers to reach
the Wisconsin state line around 10 PM - 12 AM then reaching a line
from Houghton-Marquette-Manistique about 2 hours later then the far
east about around 3-5 AM. The boundary layer appears to stay quite
warm, dry, and breezy until rain arrives. Once the rain arrives, a
sharp boundary layer inversion develops raising questions about how
windy it will be tonight. The ~40 mb gradient between surface
ridging over James Bay and the low pressure to our southwest
combined with a 50-60 kt LLJ are impressive. Other than being stable
with rainfall, I couldn`t come up with any good reasons to change
the wind advisory since ensembles and model soundings continue to
support the likelihood of gusts reaching criteria. There should
be a break in rain chances Wednesday morning before the next
round of rain arrives. The possible exception to that is near
Lake MI where east-southeasterly flow off the lake may result in
upslope drizzle. Regardless, the next round of rain arrives
during the early afternoon and continues into Wednesday night
when a cold front moves through and scours out remaining
moisture.
The post-frontal air mass is considerably drier and may result in a
nice day of weather for Thursday with the GFS advertising deep
mixing to 6-7 kft away from Lake Superior implying more fire wx
concerns. A reinforcing cold front moves through Thursday night with
modest cold air advection resulting in steep low level lapse rates
through Friday. Additionally, isolated rain showers cannot be ruled
out along the front, especially across the eastern UP. By Friday,
chilly conditions are expected due to blustery west winds possibly
reaching up to near 40 mph. The final surface trough moves through
Friday night shifting winds more NWerly and bringing a chance for
some light lake effect rain/snow mix. This potential appears to
coincide with a decaying deformation zone pivoting across the area.
Regardless, QPF appears light so not expecting impacts at this time.
Temperatures stay below normal on Saturday, but a warming trend
begins with any lake effect potential ending during the day. The
next weather-maker appears to arrive next Monday night implying
successively warmer temps Sunday and Monday. Given the time of year
and expected dryness of the incoming air mass, fire wx concerns seem
likely to return. The weather-maker next Monday night appears
clipper-ish and somewhat moisture starved so only expect light rain
showers at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 716 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024
VFR conditions give way to MVFR conditions as a band of light to
moderate rain showers moves in late tonight, eventually becoming IFR
to LIFR conditions by very late tonight/Wednesday morning as low
level clouds settle in and we catch a break in the rainfall. Another
round of light to moderate rain showers moves through the area
Wednesday morning through afternoon across the TAF sites. LLWS
is expected across all the TAF sites tonight, with the strongest
LLWS over KCMX followed by KIWD and KSAW. The LLWS ends
Wednesday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 458 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Northeasterly gales up to 45 kt are occurring across far western
Lake Superior this afternoon with sub-gale force gusts elsewhere.
Easterly gales up to 45 kts spread across Lake Superior tonight and
continue through Wednesday as a 991 mb low currently over Nebraska
approaches the lake. On Wednesday, the strongest winds are expected
over the north central and east half of the lake as gales subside
across the western lake. Probabilities of storm force gusts to 47
kts remain low at less than 15%. Winds fall below gale force as the
low pressure moves onto the lake late on Wednesday. Generally stable
conditions persist over the lake limiting additional periods of high
winds, but the enhanced pressure gradient should keep westerly gusts
of 20-30 kt from late Wednesday night through Friday. Significant
wave heights up to 10-13 feet are expected across the far east this
evening before 8-12 feet waves spread across the whole lake on
Wednesday. Locally higher waves up to 16 feet are possible between
Isle Royale and the tip of the Keweenaw Peninsula Wednesday morning
and afternoon.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ001-003-
006-007-014-085.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
LSZ242>246.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
LSZ243>246-250-264>266.
Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Wednesday for LSZ162.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
LSZ240-241.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
LSZ242-263.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ247>249.
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ251-267.
Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221-
250.
Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ221-250.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ248.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
LMZ248.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...EK
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...EK