Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/16/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
804 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
.UPDATE...
Issued at 757 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
A few rounds of updates ongoing this evening after a pretty
busy afternoon and early evening. Decided to cancel the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch early as all the activity has been north and
east of Dawes County during this event. Do not expect any
additional strong thunderstorms across the western Nebraska
Panhandle, but expect quite a bit of lightning close by as
another round of severe thunderstorms push north across west
central Nebraska overnight.
Also made several rounds of temperatures, dewpoint/humidity,
and wind updates this evening to account for the rapidly
changing conditions associated with surface cyclogenesis across
the high plains. This surface storm has produce wind gusts of 55
to 70 MPH already. After a brief lull, these winds should
redevelop later tonight and continue through Tuesday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions across the southern Nebraska
Panhandle today where Red Flag Warnings are in effect from
noon to 7 PM for gusty winds and low humidity.
- A strong storm system arriving today will bring the potential
for high winds, showers and thunderstorms (could be strong to
severe in the northern NE panhandle), and mountain snow this
afternoon through Tuesday.
- Strong cold front associated with a large system across
central Canada will bring much colder temperatures and the
chance for valley snows Wednesday into Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Very active weather over the next 24 to 36 hours as a slowly
moving low pressure system moves slowly through northern
Colorado into central Nebraska.
Currently...992mb surface low analyzed just south of the
southern Nebraska Panhandle near the Nebraska/Colorado state
line. Cold front extends south southwest into northern New
Mexico. A stationary front north of the low through Kimball to
Mitchell Nebraska to another surface low near Upton. Ahead of
this low...a dryline analyzed from the low southeastward into
western Kansas. Current SPC mesoanalysis showing SBCAPE around
1000 to 1500 J/KG. Coordinating with SPC...may see a Watch
coming out soon.
Am a little troubled with surface dewpoints out in the Panhandle
only being in the upper 30s to low 40s. May not see a whole lot
of convection out there. Simulated HRRR and RAP radar not
showing a whole lot of convection out there through the
afternoon.
More concern with strong winds tonight into Tuesday on the back
side of the surface and 700mb low. GFS has the 700mb low
tracking into south central Nebraska near the Kansas stateline.
GFS showing 750/800mb winds turning northwest to north and
increasing after 00Z. By 03Z...looking at 45-50kts over the
south Laramie Range near the I-80 Summit. Winds become stronger
and more widespread after 06Z to cover the entire Laramie Range
out into extreme southeast Wyoming. Did upgrade remaining
watches to warnings for the southern Panhandle and Converse
County.
By far...our strongest winds look to occur after 12Z Tuesday as
700mb winds up near 65-70kts over the Summit and widespread
800mb winds of 50-55kts. This looks to be our best timing on
strong winds for our high wind warnings. Even see 800mb winds of
55-60kts over Kimball and Cheyenne Counties with 750mb winds
near 70kts from 15Z through 21Z. Winds easing afterwards.
Finally...the wrap around moisture north and northwest of the
low. Looks confined mainly across Carbon County this evening
before it eventually starts moving eastward as the parent low
tracks into eastern Nebraska Tuesday afternoon. This is a warm
system with snow levels forecast to mainly above 8000 feet.
Mountains look to get pretty good accumulations of heavy wet
snow...while lower elevations may stay liquid the entire time.
Winter headlines remain in effect for the Sierra Madre...Snowy
and south Laramie Ranges.
Precip ends from west to east through the afternoon Tuesday with
all locations looking dry by 00Z Wednesday. Next frontal
boundary approaches from the north and northwest Wednesday
afternoon with precipitation developing out west.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Wednesday night/Thursday...Looks like an active period for fairly
widespread snow as our forecast area will be under a strong west to
east jet aloft, along with a slowly sinking Canadian origin cold
front and cyclonic flow aloft helping to produce snowfall in a moist
airmass. The greatest chances for snow will be Wednesday night, with
slowly decreasing coverage after daybreak on Thursday as the colder
airmass deepens. Based on projected 700 mb temperatures near
-9 Celsius and thick cloud cover, maximum temperatures will be
mainly in the 40s, though possibly cooler with the strength of the
cold airmass.
Friday...Another cold day on tap with another shortwave trough aloft
moving through the westerly flow aloft, helping to increase coverage
of mainly snow, with greatest coverage from Laramie to Cheyenne to
Sidney.
Saturday...Another shortwave trough aloft moves across the counties,
producing a chance for more snow in the cold airmass near the
surface, and banked up into Albany County. More milder temperatures
anticipated across Carbon County and Rawlins where the colder air
will be less deep.
Sunday...Expect a decent warming trend as westerly flow aloft helps
develop a surface lee trough, which allows the cold airmass to
retreat to our east. With 700 mb temperatures near 6 Celsius,
maximum temperatures will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Monday...The mild temperatures continue in advance of the next
approaching cold front under zonal flow aloft. Could see the
possibility of another cold front bringing colder temperatures
again, though confidence in this solution is still low at this
point.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Strong winds will affect most terminals through the early
evening hours, especially at KCYS and LAR where gusts over 45
knots will be possible. Expect scattered cloud ceilings
generally above MVFR thresholds. After midnight, temperatures
will cool out west and will transition to a rain/snow mix. Some
IFR ceilings are possible at LAR, CYS, RWL, and BFF through the
morning hours on Wednesday.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ101.
High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ107-108.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ112.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ114.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ116-117.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ116.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ118-119.
NE...High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM MDT Tuesday for
NEZ019>021- 054-055.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MAC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
909 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
...Short Term Convective Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms develop and move through the area tonight. A few
storms are possible as early as 6pm, but the main timeframe is
expected to be 10pm to 4am.
- Tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are all
possible. And this threat continues well into the overnight.
- Additional rain and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday,
especially across Nebraska, but the main severe risk will
shift east of us.
- Turning cooler through the week and into the weekend, with off
and on precipitation chances.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
- Various notes regarding the overnight severe weather threat:
1) A legitimate severe storm threat with all hazards possible
(large hail, damaging winds, a few tornadoes) most definitely
STILL EXISTS for the vast majority of our coverage area (CWA)
overnight, and recently issued Tornado Watch 113 is currently
valid until 3 AM for all of our KS counties along with our NE
counties along/south of I-80 and along/west of Highway 281.
Further overnight expansion of this Watch (or perhaps a new
Watch) is quite possible.
2) Potential development several hours ago (that prompted the
since cancelled/replaced Severe T-storm Watch for 4 of our
west-northwestern most counties) ended up tracking well-
northwest of our CWA, with capping keeping any other convection
at bay locally.
3) This always was expected to be a MAINLY OVERNIGHT (aka late)
"main show" for our CWA, which is actually a bit unusual for so
early in the convective season. Above all else, folks need to
remain unusually vigilant and have a way to receive Warnings at
a time of night that may be more common in June than April.
4) Going into some basics of the meteorology/expectations:
- The recently-developed showers/weak thunderstorms in our
southeast counties are not of significant concern for a severe
threat (they are elevated), but will be watched closely.
- As the large-scale Pacific cold front intercepts the well-
defined dryline in western KS/NE and large-scale ascent
increases ahead of the vigorous closed upper low shifting
across central CO, rapid/intense storm development is likely
mainly 10 PM-Midnight within or just south of our far western
and southwestern CWA (particularly near/west of Hwy 183).
- Initial storms could quickly become supercells, and at least
briefly maintain some isolation (this would be the peak time
of large hail threat). However, especially by around/after 1
AM, storm mode will likely become quite "messy", with clusters
or line segments racing north-northeast across the majority of
our CWA (but with the most intense activity probably favoring
the southern and eastern halves of it).
- As things trend "messier" in storm mode, the large hail threat
would likely decrease, but as long as storms remain surface-
based, a damaging wind and QLCS tornado threat (meaning
tornadoes embedded within kinks in the line or along any
breaks in a line) would remain a threat, especially given
strong low level (0-1km) shear ramping up to 30-40KT.
- Latest hi-res models (including HRRR) suggest our severe storm
threat should vacate our eastern CWA by the 5-7 AM time frame
(again unusually late at night/early in the morning for our
area!).
- Briefly touching on TUESDAY DAYTIME (after 7 AM):
Although the MAIN severe weather threat should clearly be to our
east, there will likely be enough residual instability under the
heart of the closed upper low as it tracks directly overhead to
prompt a few strong to MAYBE marginally-severe storms with
mainly a hail threat (up to around 1" size), especially early-
mid afternoon. This, however, is not a "sure thing" as we are
overall-far more concerned with the upcoming overnight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Returning moisture and diurnal heating ahead of an upper low has
pushed MLCAPE values as high as 3000J/kg in southwestern
portions of the area. Latest satellite shows cumulus development
stretching from near North Platte down to near Beloit.
This cumulus doesn`t seem to be developing quickly, and there
is still some uncertainty on when this will develop. The HRRR
keeps our entire area convection-free until almost midnight, but
the NAMnest shows convective development within the next 1-2
hours.
Regardless, the expectation is that this first round of
thunderstorms (wherever they develop) will be primarily a hail
threat with steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively limited
low-level shear.
Around sunset, increasing low level shear and helicity will lead
to increasing tornado threat, and better forcing arriving from
the west should allow for additional thunderstorms to develop
overhead or just to our southwest late this evening (after
10pm). This activity will then move through the area into the
late overnight, with continued threats for damaging hail, wind
and tornadoes. The tornado threat will likely be greatest along
the southern extent of the cluster/line.
Storms push to our east Tuesday morning, but additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop as the upper low moves
through the area. Instability will be much more limited on
Tuesday, so severe weather is unlikely.
Winds will turn to the northwest behind the low Tuesday evening
into the overnight, and gusts of 40-50 MPH are expected.
Another shortwave will bring us another chance for precipitation
Wednesday night into Thursday morning (along with a shot of
cooler air). This should be primarily rain (and some weak
thunderstorms), but a mix of rain/snow is possible Thursday
morning as surface temperatures fall into the 30s.
A upper low over Manitoba will keep us in a cooler pattern
into next weekend, with spotty precipitation chances each day.
Subfreezing temperatures appear likely Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Severe storms possible tonight for the TAF sites. Decided to add
TSRA on station for GRI overnight as short range models seem to
have some agreement on timing. Hail and wind will be the primary
threats with these storms, but an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out either. The winds will remain gusty for the most part,
but winds do taper off a little as the low pressure center
moves over the sites and the winds will pickup once the low
moves off.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Beda
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1049 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Despite plenty of instability there is little in the way of
forcing with the warm front as it slowly lifts northward, thus
lowered POPs for tonight (20 percent most locations).
Byrd
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms (up to a 40% chance) remain possible
through this evening. One or two of these storms could become
severe, with quarter size hail and gusty winds being the main
threats.
- Severe thunderstorms look likely on Tuesday during the afternoon
and early evening hours, particularly across central and
northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. Large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with the area
mentioned above at risk for very large hail and a strong
tornado.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Latest surface analysis is showing a front extending from just north of
Kansas City to near St. Louis to north Evansville. Latest satellite
imagery is showing a cumulus field south of this front where the SPC
mesoanalysis is showing MLCAPES of 1500-2000+ J/kg. The latest
HRRR/RAP is showing the front remaining in the place this evening with
a isolated-scattered thunderstorms developing along the front as the
cap breaks between 23-02Z. One or two of these storms may become
severe given the amount of instability and deep layer shear around 30
knots. Then the HRRR is showing any storms moving out of the area by
late this evening with a chance of showers overnight.
More active weather will occur with two waves of severe weather likely
on Tuesday. The aforementioned front will move north of the area early
in the day in response to a deep surface low moving east across
Nebraska. This will put us in the open warm sector with the first
round forced by a combination of mid level lead shortwave paired with a
band of low level moisture advection. The HRRR has been consistent
in showing a north-south band of showers and thunderstorms across
the CWA between 12-5 pm. MLCAPES will be around 1000 J/kg ahead of
this band with deep layer shear of 50-60kts indicating that
supercells and organized mutlicells will be possible within this
band capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado or two. The second band will likely occur between 4-8 pm
ahead of a weak vort lobe paired with a dry line. The HRRR have
been showing discrete cells developing ahead of the dryline where
there are forecast hodographs with large curvature in the 0-3km
layer and 0-1km shear of 35 knots. While there are questions about
whether there will be enough time to destabilize behind the first
wave, the NAM/GFS is showing MLCAPES of 1000-1500 J/kg in the
area that these storm develop in which does support the SPC
Enhanced risk and the potential for very large hail and a strong
tornado with these storms. This line will likely move out of the
CWA by mid-late evening leaving the overnight hours dry.
Britt
&&
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Mainly dry weather is expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night before
a northern stream system brings a cold front through the area. The
LREF supports likely PoPs late Thursday into Thursday night. Showers
and thunderstorms will linger over the area into Saturday before Sunday
will be dry. Temperatures will remain above normal into Thursday
before falling below normal behind the cold front on Thursday.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
With lack of forcing along the warm front that is slowly lifting
northward overnight, little in the way of additional storms
expected to develop, thus kept all TAFs dry through the overnight
hours.
Main round of activity will fire up after 15z Tuesday and slide
east across the region through the afternoon and early evening
hours. Second round with a dry line, looking less likely per the
lastest CAMs, so TAFs are dry after 00z-03z Wednesday. Otherwise,
southeast winds will veer to the south by mid morning on Tuesday
and pickup with gusts near 35kts at times.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1017 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Recent HRRR soundings suggest a low level inversion has developed
following the setting sun. This is further backed up by SPC
Mesoanalysis which shows that weak convective inhibition has
developed across much of the area. Additionally, surface
observations suggest that the better convergence along a weak
boundary remains displaced more so towards northern Kentucky.
This has resulted in the severe threat for southwest Virginia and
extreme northeast Tennessee trending downward and the most recent
convective outlook has been limited to a marginal risk. Given
DCAPE ranging from 700 to 1000J/kg and steep lapse rates, if an
isolated storm does drift into the region some gusty winds and
small hail will be possible. Otherwise, a fairly quiet night with
bands of mid to high level clouds streaming ahead. Temperatures
will sit comfortably in the upper 50s to low 60s for the morning
commute.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Key Messages:
1.Chance of showers and thunderstorms in northern sections this
evening, with a few storms capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds. Storms possible in NE sections again Tuesday
afternoon.
2. Above normal temperatures continue for Tuesday, with highs in the
80s in most spots.
Discussion:
Convection has begun to develop along a pre-frontal trough across
northern WV/VA. In the next few hours, the CAMS show additional
development farther west, across southern OH/northern KY. This
expected activity will propagate SE, and could reach our SW VA
counties in the 00-06Z time frame. Right now, that area is capped,
but RAP mesoanalysis shows weakening CIN in the next few hours.
Given the steep midlevel lapse rates leading to MLCAPE near
2000J/kg, low WBZ heights, and adequate shear, large hail may be a
threat with the storms, along with damaging wind gusts. CAMS have
some discrepancies about when this activity will dissipate, but
expect a downward trend from 04-08Z as the boundary layer
stabilizes.
A 850-700 mb ridge axis crosses the area in the morning, with a weak
shortwave trough following behind it in the afternoon. With
afternoon heating and MLCAPE developing to near 1500 J/kg in NE
TN/SW VA, some strong to severe storms will be possible again,
although lapse rates are not as steep as this evening. Warm
temperatures can be expected again tomorrow, with highs well into
the 80s for most locations outside the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Key Messages:
1. Increasing rain chances with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.
A break in the rain Thursday. Rain chances increase with a chance
for more thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.
2. Turning much cooler Sunday and Monday behind cold front.
Lingering rain chances through at least Sunday with slowing of
front.
Discussion:
Tuesday night the strong upper level ridge over the east and
southeast will continue to combine with a low level southerly flow
and increase warm advection into the region. After a very warm day
Tuesday and increasing clouds Tuesday evening temperatures will be
slow to fall. Lows expected in the lower to mid 60s.
An approaching low pressure system into the Great Lakes pushes a
cold front through the Tennessee Valley Wednesday. Models are
showing a weakening trend with this front as it shifts east as main
system goes far to the north. Have kept higher rain chances then
MAV/MET blend. ECMWF only model keeping the front and precipitation
widespread with the other 2 models drier. Some storms that are able
to form could still get moderate instability and shear late in the
day with ample daytime heating into the mid to upper 70s and dew
points in the upper 50s to near 60 along the plateau and southern
valley. The plateau area should see the highest risk with marginal
damage possible. The weak front should move east Wednesday night
with a dry and continued warm day Thursday as no cold air will
follow this front. Weak high pressure will slowly slide east late
Thursday and Thursday night. A new low pressure area forms across
the western southern plains Wednesday night and Thursday.
This weaker low and system will be a slower mover and ECMWF shows it
weakening as it approaches Friday night. Not much shower and
thunderstorm activity moves in with most of the convection to the
southwest of the local area. The GFS shows a little more convection
Friday but again shows redevelopment far to the west. It looks like
overrunning along the front will bring more significant rainfall
across the region Saturday and Sunday with the ECMWF and the GFS
only Sunday. With the uncertainty Have rain chances through the
weekend. Monday the front shifts east. Above normal temperatures
will continue through Friday then cooling down Saturday and much
cooler Sunday and Monday with highs only in the upper 50s to mid
60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Some hi-resolution guidance continues to show a few isolated
showers/storms developing near southwest Virginia and northeast
Tennessee tonight. Have included vicinity thunder mention at TRI
but confidence is quite low in any direct impacts to the terminal.
Most likely timing seems to be through about 6z. Otherwise, mid
to high level clouds stream across the area with light winds
through TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 85 64 77 / 0 0 20 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 85 65 77 / 10 10 10 40
Oak Ridge, TN 61 85 63 77 / 0 10 20 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 81 60 78 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....TD
AVIATION...KRS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
604 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Potential for isolated thunderstorms this evening. Marginal
severe risk across central MO with large hail the primary
risk.
- Potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms across the area Tuesday. Large hail and damaging
winds the primary risks. Confidence remains limited. Stay
tuned for updates.
- Windy conditions will develop on Tuesday with south winds
gusting up to 40-50+ mph at times.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
This evening into tonight: A warm front is currently sitting
across the highway 54 corridor and slowly drifting northward.
Some convection may fire along the front, bringing a risk for
1" hail, but chances that storms fire in our CWA are less than
20%. Overall severe risk is less given conditionality of severe
threat, small area and time window where storms may develop,
and limited chances for convection to initiate in the first
place.
Overnight tonight may see some patches of rain move through,
but most locations should stay dry.
For Tuesday, the strong, stacked low pressure system that is
driving short term conditions will shift from NE to IA, this
results in the CWA bring between better forcing further north
closer to the low and further south where better instability
should exist. In fact, the mid-level jet right exit region will
be over the CWA, resulting in upper confluence and downward
motion. The airmass will not feature a lot of moisture
throughout the profile and a dry line will surge in from the
west, further reducing potential for sustained convection and
limiting coverage. But, if convection can become established and
enough instability can develop, shear will be strong (deep
layer shear around 70 kts) so severe storms will be possible.
Current thinking is that the best potential for storms will be
over the northeastern and eastern CWA in the afternoon and
evening, but still featuring limited PoPs of <50% over most of
the area. Main hazards would be large hail and damaging winds.
There remains considerable uncertainty on the coverage and
potential for storms, the amount of instability that can be
realized, and resulting hazards. Stay tuned for updates.
The greater likelihood of impacts lies with gusty southerly
winds on Tuesday, especially over the western CWA where the dry
line moves through earlier in the day, resulting in increased
mixing. Could see gusts of 45-55 mph along and west of Highway
65. There may also exist a fire weather threat over the west
depending on the level of mixing and surface RH values. HRRR
shows RH values into the teens in the afternoon west of Highway
65.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Wednesday will see breezy westerly winds, highs in the 70s to
mid 80s, and sunny skies.
For Thursday, SPC has the equivalent to a slight risk over the
southwestern CWA. Guidance shows a warm front across the area
with a surface low moving up the front in the afternoon as
shortwave energy moves through. There is considerable
uncertainty in how much morning precipitation will be around and
resulting afternoon instability. Current forecast calls for
highs ranging from the low 70s NW to the mid 80s S. If ideal
conditions can develop, deep layer shear around 50 kts with
favorable arcing hodographs and SBCAPE values up to around 2,000
J/kg are possible. Severe weather with all hazard modes would
be possible. Stay tuned.
Unsettled conditions are possible Friday and Saturday with
20-30% chances for showers and highs in the 50s and 60s. Sunday
and Monday look dry with highs in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Some mid level cloud cover can be expected this evening into the
first part of the overnight hours ahead of a strong low pressure
system in the plains. Eventually ceilings will dip into the MVFR
category and some scattered convection will be possible at the
TAF sites from around sunrise through the midday hours. Very
gusty winds out of the south are expected with some gusts over
30 kts possible.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Lindenberg