Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/10/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
945 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Tonight expect scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms.
Tomorrow will be cooler with more clouds and isolated to
scattered showers and a few more thunderstorms. A larger system
moves into the Great Lakes region Thursday into Friday with
increasing winds and heavier rain returning for late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM Update...
Adjusted POPs and probability of thunder in grids to account for
the lone thunderstorm that popped up near Weedsport. Southwest
low-level flow was advecting moisture in aloft with the edge of
the moist plume reaching western NY. MU CAPEs were around 500
J/kg up there as per SPC Mesoanalysis with 0-6 km shear around
50 knots. The cell was tilted with the 50 DBZ height around
20KFT which is just above the minus 20C line. We issued an SPS
to cover this cell and a few others that may form along thruway
corridor in the next couple hours.
Rest of forecast just tweaked current temperatures and dewpoints
to match obs. Otherwise no major changes.
730 pm Update...
Radar shows showers and even a few thunderstrorms over southern
Ontario at this time in association with dewpoints into the low
50s. ML CAPEs were running between 500 and 1000 J/Kg in southern
Ontario where convection was forming. Mosaic radar shows
convection from Ohio Valley into the eastern lakes ahead of a
short wave aloft and associated cold front in the eastern Lakes
to northern Ohio valley. This short wave will track northeast
tonight and push some showers into NY state overnight. There
will be elevated instability which could trigger a few rumbles
of thunder. The next short wave will track across the lower
lakes overnight and into the eastern lakes by Wednesday
afternoon. This will increase the low-level southwesterly flow
and lead to moisture advection ahead of the advancing cold front.
This, coupled with heating in the warm sector could lead to
some instability Wednesday afternoon in northeast PA and parts
of central NY. The NAMnest is most aggressive and would suggest
marginal SVR with 0-6 km shear values around 40-50 knots. ML
CAPEs on NAMnest were around 500 J/kg or so. The HRRR has more
showers around in the morning and the atmosphere cannot recover
enough for much CAPE in the afternoon. So, it is an uncertainty
as to how many thunderstorms we see Wednesday afternoon and if a
few can become severe. For now have high POPs for showers
Wednesday with a chance for thunderstorms. Previous discussion
is below.
340 PM update...
It has gotten toasty out there for this time of the year with
thin high clouds doing little to lessen day time heating.
Visible satellite is showing a nice cu field in western NY and
PA and that is indicative of a warm front moving in with
increasing moisture late this evening and overnight. Models
today have shown a little less elevated instability for
overnight so lowered precipitation chances a bit. Best chances
for seeing showers and thunderstorms will be along and north of
I-90 after midnight as there is weak surface convergence as a
front drops south through the Great Lakes and interacts with the
warm front.
As the surface low deepens tomorrow, warm air advection
strengthens with a better chance of widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Despite stronger
ridging and warmer temperatures aloft, clouds and showers will
limit heating so it will be cooler tomorrow than today. Chances
of precipitation were lowered tomorrow night as the warm front
lifts north of the region with less lift across CNY into NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...
A stacked closed low up to 500mb over the east-central US will be
the main weather driver for this period.
The deep trough will dig into the Gulf of Mexico, tapping into
tropical moisture. Mostly southerly winds on the eastern side of the
trough and associated low pressure centers will pull this deep
moisture into the region Thursday through Friday. Thursday morning
should see lighter showers along the warm front pushing north across
the Finger Lakes. A brief lull in the showers from mid morning into
the early afternoon will allow heating to push temperatures into the
mid 60s to low 70s, generating some elevated instability. It won`t
be much, but there will be a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms
developing late afternoon into the overnight hours. Winds are
expected to increase through the day Thursday as isobars stack
up with the surface low off to our west. Sustained winds of
20-30mph with gusts up to 45mph will be possible late Thursday
afternoon into the early overnight hours. Winds should lighten
up before sunrise. Temperatures will remain warm Thursday
night, only falling into the mid to upper 50s.
Friday morning, the surface low should be over the eastern Great
Lakes. A reinforcing mid-level shortwave will slide into the
overall pattern, changing the path of the low from moving out of
the SSW to a more west to east path during the day Friday. This
will push a cold front into the region, dropping Friday`s highs
about 10 degrees or so cooler than the day before. Moderate
rain showers should dissipate during the morning hours as the
first cold front pushes through the area and a slot of dry air
gets wrapped into the overall pattern. Moisture wrapped up in
the low will continue to allow for rain showers to continue
across the region, with the best chances north of the Southern
Tier, as the low tracks eastward. A secondary push of cold air
will move in Friday evening, dropping overnight lows into the
mid to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM Update...
The low pressure system will continue to lift to the NE on
Saturday morning, with some lingering showers remaining into the
afternoon hours. Cold air filtering in behind the secondary cold
front will keep highs on Saturday in the upper 40s to low 50s.
A shortwave will move into the area from the Great Lakes Sunday
and Monday, bringing rain showers to the region. A quick lull is
expected Tuesday before another low pressure system moves into
the region mid- week. Temps during this period will be above
average, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows in the
40s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
750 PM Update
VFR conditions expected through at least 5-6Z tonight. Clouds
will be filling in and lowering in the second half of the night
with a few scattered showers starting to develop after 5-6Z,
especially up north near RME and SYR. There is a low chance for
an elevated thunderstorm up in this area as well overnight, but
the confidence was too low to include in the TAFs at this time.
Cigs dont look to fall below VFR until around 12-14Z Wednesday
morning. Periods of scattered rain showers overspread the area
from west to east out ahead of a cold frontal boundary through
the day. Model guidance shows differing levels of instability,
mainly dependent on if/where breaks of sunshine and more daytime
heating can occur. There is at least a modest chance (30%) for
isolated thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the slow
moving boundary. Therefore, included a PROB30 group for -TSRA
potential at ITH and BGM, probabilities were slightly lower at
ELM and AVP, so left out the mention of thunder at these two
terminals at this time; but this will need to be monitored
closely in future TAF updates.
The MVFR CIGs clear out behind the front after about 19-23z
Wednesday from NW to SE...except at AVP where it lingers past
00z Thursday.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Friday...Potential restrictions from
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Restrictions will be
most likely during Thursday and Friday. Strong winds and
possible LLWS Thursday into Friday night.
Saturday...Possible restrictions from rain and snow showers
mainly in central NY. Gusty winds continue.
Sunday...Chance for rain showers and possible restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJG/DJN
NEAR TERM...AJG/DJN
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...AJG/MJM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1018 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds tonight with passing light showers through
Wednesday night. Series of fronts bring several chances of rain
late week. Coastal flooding and blustery conditions will
accompany the strongest cold front Thursday night into Friday.
Unsettled but seasonal weekend before drier and seasonably mild
conditions develop next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM Update:
Easterly flow is established over SNE this evening with
increasing amts of high cloud cover; that said, still a pretty
wide range in temps from the lower to mid 40s in eastern MA and
RI, to as mild as the lower 60s where flow is a bit stronger in
the CT Valley. Looks like winds should begin to slacken
somewhat in the CT Valley and that should bring temps closer to
forecast values, but did boost temps from Worcester westward
through early overnight using some the milder bias corrected
datasets.
Though we still expect the balance of the overnight to be dry,
have to watch the cluster of convective showers and even a few
t-storms across the eastern Great Lakes/western NY/Ontario
vicinity associated with a warm front aloft. Appears steeper
lapse rates in the 850-500 mb layer is sustaining this activity
per the 00z BUF RAOB. Past couple runs of the hourly HRRR
guidance and the 00z/10th NAM 3-km progress this activity
eastward into eastern NY, southern VT and far northwestern MA
between 10-12z Wed, so more of an early-morning shower risk.
Will continue to assess trends and incoming guidance before
possibly introducing mention of showers a bit earlier into
western MA with later updates, but for now the overnight should
stay dry for all areas.
Previous discussion:
Highlights:
* Wonderful spring afternoon, turning seasonably cool overnight with
a very low chance of a rouge showers - otherwise dry.
* Pockets of shallow coastal flooding for eastern Massachusetts
for the overnight high tide.
A wonderful spring afternoon across the region, many locations hit
the upper-60s if not the lower-70s. Surface high pressure has nosed
in from the maritime, which brought an on shore component to the
wind. This did limit how warm temperatures in eastern Massachusetts
could achieve - early afternoon temperatures here are in the upper-
50s. But, earlier this morning a few areas did hit the low-60s
before ahead of the wind shift from NNW to ENE.
Rest of today very comfortable conditions. Increasing mid and high
clouds overspread the region tonight with a warm front. Placement of
the front is to the west, which should limit any rain chance across
southern New England. Tonight is largely a dry night, outside of a
rouge shower in far western Massachusetts or Connecticut. The added
cloud cover should limit how low the overnight temperatures will
fall. Given how dry the lowest part of the atmosphere, still expect
a seasonably cool night with lows in the upper-30s to low-40s. Urban
centers may remain a few degrees higher in the mid-40s. Winds are
light from the ESE around 10 mph.
Lastly, tonight there could be nuisance coastal flooding for east
coastal Massachusetts. High tide comes in shortly after midnight and
the forecast does bring us VERY close to minor flood stage at
Boston. Similar to the high tide this afternoon, we`d expect shallow
pockets of flooding less than one foot deep affecting the most
vulnerable coastal roads and lowest lying areas along the coast,
such as Morrissey Boulevard in Boston. Roads remain passable. This
will likely continue again on Wednesday as high astronomical tides
lead to rounds of very shallow flooding. Moving forward, will handle
this with Coastal Flood Statements.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
* Cooler with periods of light rain, especially Wednesday afternoon
with on and off shower activity Wednesday night into predawn hours
of Thursday.
* Renewed chance for nuisance coastal flooding during the early
afternoon high tide for the east coast of Massachusetts.
Wednesday: Warm front crosses southern New England increasing cloud
cover across the region. PWATs climb 0.8 to 1.2 inch, but forcing is
not the best, a mid-level shortwave rides the ridge - this gives
enough lift for a few showers late morning into the afternoon. QPF
is limited, generally less than 0.1 inch. Surface winds remain out
of the southeast to south/southeast, this limits temperatures across
southern New England to the low and middle 50s, slightly cooler
along the immediate coast. Sea surface temperatures are low-40s, this
will keep afternoon temperatures limited to the upper-40s.
Again, the high tide along the coast of eastern Massachusetts may
near minor flood during the early afternoon. As there is a Coastal
Flood Statement out for the overnight high tide, the overnight crew
will need to reevaluate whether or not this product will be needed.
Wednesday Night: Periodic showers overnight, the CAMS do show a lull
in activity, shortly after midnight with an uptick in activity
around sunrise on Thursday. Warmer overnight, lows range between the
mid-40s to 50 degrees. Do to the increased dewpoints, it is possible
there could be patchy areas of fog. Wind across the interior are
less than 5 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points...
* Unsettled and wet conditions continue for the latter half of the
week into the first half of the weekend.
* Heaviest rain will be Thursday night into Friday with potential
for gusty winds, though odds of damaging winds are low. Minor
coastal flooding is possible for portions of the south facing
coast during this period.
* Unsettled weekend before drier conditions may develop, but
monitoring another disturbance around Sunday/Monday which may
quash our chances of prolonged dry weather.
Details...
Wednesday night through Friday...
Mid level ridging breaks down a bit Wednesday night as a shortwave
rounds the top of the ridge bringing scattered rain showers to the
region. We then see a brief lull in the rain toward Thursday morning
as heights once again rise with the ridge building back in. This is
a short lived reprieve, however, as it precedes a deep trough across
the southern Plains which becomes negatively tilted as it slides
into the northeast Thursday night into Friday. This will direct a
plume of deep moisture (PWAT 1.5+ inches) into SNE ahead of a Friday
mid level cold front. This will lead to widespread moderate rain,
dropping 1-1.5 inches of rain on the region by Friday night.
Ensembles continue to show little concern for any more rain than
that (very low probs of AOA 2 inches) which should limit renewed
river flooding; something to monitor as it approaches. As for the
winds, there will be a substantial S/SW low level jet overhead (60-
80 kts) but model soundings continue to indicate the bulk of this
wind will be kept aloft by a strong surface inversion. Even so,
winds will still be gusty, especially for the Cape and islands
Thursday night and Friday. This inversion should help minimize the
threat for coastal flooding along the south coast Thursday night and
Friday morning, but given where astronomical tides are, guidance
indicates the potential for 1-2 feet of surge which could take
places like Fox Point into minor flood stage.
Saturday through Tuesday...
Even as the deep plume of moisture has moved east with the low by
Saturday, the lingering cold pool aloft with cyclonic flow over SNE
will keep clouds and periods of showers around through at least the
first half of the weekend. Beyond that, though, we`re not in the
clear rain-wise. Another disturbance looks to round the base of a
broader trough around Sunday or Monday with a surface low crossing
New England which would keep rain chances in the forecast.
Additionally, behind the Friday front a cooler airmass moves
overhead, so highs previously in the 60s for Thu/Fri will drop into
the 50s Saturday before rebounding Sunday and especially Monday. By
Monday we may even see upper 60s to near 70 in the warm sector
depending on the track of the aforementioned low. Overall, no
prolonged truly dry stretch of weather looks to be in the cards at
this point. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Tonight... High confidence.
VFR. Dry for the most part, though a rouge shower can`t be ruled out
across far northwestern terminals. Winds E but becoming SE between 5
and 10 knots, slightly stronger winds possible 10 to 15 knots along
and near the coast.
Wednesday... High confidence in trends, but moderate in timing.
VFR through early afternoon, trending to MVFR 18z-21z, along with
chance -RA. Winds are SE 8 to 12 knots, with some gusts for coastal
terminals to 20 knots possible.
Wednesday Night... Moderate confidence.
MVFR to start, trending IFR after 06z. Slight chance of -RA and
patchy ground fog. Winds are SE to start, then become NE, though
speeds are generally light 5 to 10 knots.
KBOS TAF... High confidence.
KBDL TAF... High confidence.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, patchy BR.
Thursday Night: Mainly IFR, with local VFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts up to 45 kt. SHRA, isolated TSRA, patchy BR.
Friday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with
gusts up to 55 kt. SHRA, isolated TSRA, patchy BR.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds
with local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Wednesday Night... High confidence.
Winds and seas to remain below SCA levels through Wednesday
night. Winds become E/SE tonight through Wednesday with speeds
around 10-15 kt. Seas through the period mainly 4 ft or less on
the outer waters. Periods of light rain Wednesday afternoon
which becoming on and off overnight into the predawn hours of
Thursday. As a heads up later in the week, deepening low
pressure is forecast to track through eastern Great Lakes Thu-
Fri. Confidence is increasing for Gale force S-SW winds and
building seas offshore.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog.
Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Friday: Moderate risk for storm force winds with gusts up to
55 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain showers, isolated
thunderstorms, patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Friday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.
Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Loconto/Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Loconto/BW/Dooley
MARINE...Loconto/BW/Dooley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
Our unsettled weather to begin the week continues through today,
tonight, and into tomorrow morning, complete with more threats for
severe weather and some briefly heavy rain in the strongest
storms. Here are a few key takeaways:
- A tornado watch is in place for Burleson, Brazos, Madison, and
Houston counties until 5 pm as a zone of stronger storms to the
north slowly sags southward this afternoon.
- While the north is the focus this afternoon, we`ll broaden our
view overnight with a line of storms expected to cross the area
very late tonight into tomorrow morning. The higher threat is
generally towards the north, with an Enhanced Risk (threat level
3 of 5) roughly north of I-10, and a Slight Risk (threat level 2
of 5) roughly coastward of I-10.
- While there are still significant questions about the exact
strength and timing of these storms, it is likely that storms of
some sort will interfere with at least a portion of the morning
commute for the Houston metro and much of Southeast Texas. It
will be important to keep the weather in mind when getting ready
for the day tomorrow.
- The strongest storms will also be capable of producing high rain
rates, and though storms are expected to be moving quickly
tonight, flooding issues could emerge in vulnerable locations
where multiple rounds of heavier rain occur or strong storms
move more slowly. There is a moderate risk for excessive
rainfall (threat level 3 of 4) north of Huntsville, and a slight
risk (threat level 2 of 4) between there and roughly the US-59
corridor. Coastward of US-59, a marginal risk (threat level 1 of
4) exists.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
The forecast for the next 24 hours or so is...not fun. Well, it
would be if all I needed to do were brush out the broad strokes
that I had high confidence in: continued rounds of rain and storms
through tonight into tomorrow morning, then fair weather and drier
conditions for Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Okay,
let`s all stop there, call it good, and be happy!
But no, that is not why we`re here. We`re here to puzzle out the
specifics of these next 24 hours as best we can. This is difficult
as mesoscale details are going to be particularly important. How
this afternoon`s storms evolve will strongly influence activity
overnight - for example, outflow boundaries from this earlier
convection may influence the behavior of storms tonight; or some
areas may be so fully worked over from the day`s storms that they
may not have enough instability to fuel much tonight...or with
strong Gulf inflow, there may still be enough. I could go on and
on, but hopefully y`all get the point about how messy this is.
So, here`s laying out what I`m seeing, and what the implications
are likely to be going through the rest of this afternoon and into
tonight. For the most part, the boundary on which convection is
firing continues to be just outside of the area, and in the
forecast areas of our neighbors in Fort Worth and Shreveport.
However the trend has been for this to ride to the southeast
towards our area, likely along the outflow of the day`s earlier
storms. So, while activity is still mostly unimpressive in our
northernmost counties, things are beginning to pick up in Houston,
Madison, and even kinda sorta northern Brazos counties. For the
next few hours, this row of counties will be the place to watch
for future storm development, particularly through 5 pm or so. If
it`s not too worked over, Houston County seems like the best
location for a stronger storm.
Tonight, we have to broaden the scope as the main upper trough
pushes farther east into Texas, while a surface low develops in
Northeast Texas, trailing a "cold" front back into the southern
part of the state. There`s high confidence that a line of showers
and storms will erupt on this boundary in Central Texas tonight,
roughly around midnight (give or take a couple hours). It`ll push
its way east through the night, and will reach our area deeper
into the overnight hours, though the specific timing will depend
pretty strongly on the balance between the cold pool and shear,
but likely in the 3-5 am range. Another question will be where the
strongest storms will occur. Hi-res guidance indicates the better
potential will be farther north, roughly from I-10 northward,
which does seem to line up with a subtle shortwave trough/vort max
just ahead of the main trough axis. However, the question here
will be in our northernmost counties, will today`s earlier rain
have sapped instability too much? This is a bit of an open
question as we haven`t really gotten much convection here at all
yet...but we still could. Farther south, there`s greater question
about potential as guidance goes back and forth about how far
coastward the line will build. The latest HRRR trends are towards
a line that stretches across the entire area, which seems
reasonable as the coastal environment is relatively unspoiled. I
suspect the most favorable location for strong to severe storms
will be in the middle segment north from I-10 northward until it
reaches areas that have gotten worked over from the afternoon`s
convection.
In addition to sufficient to ample instability, the shear
environment also looks favorable for supporting convective
updrafts and stronger storms. The environment just ahead of an
expected developing line looks to have 45-50 knots of deep layer
shear, which should be sufficient for stronger storms. One
complicating factor could be the orientation of the shear vector,
which is not entirely normal to the expected line. This partly is
what is driving the growth to a linear feature, but also makes the
full shear magnitude less effective. Despite that, a damaging
straight line wind threat would exist wherever storms can root
through the nighttime surface inversion and mix stronger winds
aloft down to the surface. There may also be some potential for
large hail given the amount of instability present aloft, though
this is generally not a primary hazard in QLCS situations.
Additionally, a tornado threat will also exist, particularly in
portions of the line that deform enough so that strong portions of
the line become more normal to the shear vector.
Fortunately, things get more straightforward tomorrow morning. The
line will push its way east of the area towards mid-morning, with
modestly cooler and noticeably drier air pushing in on gusty
west/northwest winds. Only some lingering chances for showers will
exist north of Lake Livingston, where some wraparound moisture
looks to hang out deeper into the day. Clouds should also begin to
scatter out fairly quickly after the line exits, with partly
cloudy to mostly sunny conditions emerging by evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
Relatively quiet weather pattern expected to start the long term
Thursday as surface low pushes east of the area...and high pressure
builds in from the Rockies...with NW flow in between advecting in
somewhat cooler, much less humid air mass. Aloft our FA will be
downstream of a low amplitude ridge also contributing to subsidence.
Winds diminish Thursday night with that being the coolest of the
week. with light winds and mostly clear sky.
Surface ridge pushes east of the area on Friday and start to see
onshore return flow with a trend for increasing humidity which
continues through the weekend. Next chance of rain really not until
next Tuesday with some instability showers possible given a tongue
of high theta-e air over at least NW portions of the forecast area.
Will also be downstream of an upper trough setting up over the
Rockies, SW US. Not looking like a whole lot at this point with dry
line and better upper forcing remaining W through the forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
Primary aviation concern will be a potential line of thunderstorms
overnight into tomorrow morning. Though isolated TS possible this
evening, the best chance of heavier TS activity will be btwn
midnight and sunrise, with 10-12Z being the primary time frame of
concern for Houston airports. Uncertainty exists regarding
forward speed of the storms. Therefore, amendments may be
warranted to adjust TS timing. Gusty winds and hail are the
primary concerns. TSRA TEMPO groups show gusts up to 35KTs from
IAH to the coast, 25KTs farther north. However, locally higher
wind gusts are likely. Given the strong jet aloft, low-level wind
shear will warrant monitoring, especially during times of strong
TS. However, peak low-level shear remains below thresholds that
would warrant mention in the TAF. West to northwest winds expected
behind the storms on Wednesday. Gusts up to 20-25 KTs possible.
General flight conditions are expected to average low-end MVFR
with areas of IFR tonight into tomorrow morning. We mostly return
to VFR by 16-18Z tomorrow. However, lingering MVFR is possible,
especially north of Houston, into tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
Will have developing low over SE Texas tonight with modest onshore
flow this evening...then a cold frontal passage late tonight and
Wednesday morning perhaps accompanied by a line of strong
thunderstorms potentially accompanied by strong winds. Mariners can
expect locally higher winds and seas in and near thunderstorms.
Behind the front strong offshore flow setting up Wednesday into
Thursday morning. At this point thinking strong small craft
conditions during this period but wind speeds will be pushing gale
criteria...especially with respect to the gusts. Will need to
monitor for need for Gale Warning if winds are just a tad higher
than we are expecting.
Surface ridge builds in from the W Thursday night and Friday with
diminishing winds and seas. Onshore generally SE flow returns Friday
night and continues through the weekend at the surface ridge pushes
E.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the daily rainfall records (inches/year) for today (Tuesday 4/9)
and tomorrow (Wednesday 4/10).
College Station Houston Houston Hobby Galveston Palacios
Tue: 2.05/1924 2.68/1913 3.08/1959 2.77/1968 4.37/1970
Wed: 1.80/1978 2.57/2004 0.90/1975 1.88/1926 1.92/2015
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 72 51 75 / 80 30 0 0
Houston (IAH) 67 77 55 78 / 80 40 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 76 59 77 / 70 40 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for
GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ350-355-370-
375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Reilly
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Reilly
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
946 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms along and south of the I-70
corridor late this afternoon and evening. Some flooding
concerns if thunderstorms train over similar locations.
- Unsettled and wet pattern the second half of the week with
prolonged or renewed areal flooding possible.
- A marginal severe threat exists for late Thursday morning into
the afternoon, but uncertainty is high on location.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024
- Cloudy; Showers/Storms south Overnight
Surface analysis this evening shows a frontal boundary stretching
across Central Indiana, reaching from south of MIE to south of IND
to south of HUF. Radar this evening has shown showers with some
thunderstorms along and south of the front. Spotters have reported
between 1 and 1.60 inches of rain in some locations, which may be
resulting in minor flooding, hence the ongoing Flood Advisories. On
the north side of the front, dew points were in the 40s and
northwest lower level flow was prevalent ahead of approaching high
pressure over northern IL. South of the front, dew points were in
the middle to upper 50s with lower level southerly flow.
As daytime heating diminishes and the front sags farther south, HRRR
suggest heavier rain showers should come to an end within the next 1-
4 hours. Thus have used categorical pops across southern areas for
the next few hours, but trended toward lower pops overnight as any
precipitation is expected to diminish and lessen in overall coverage.
As the surface high over IL drifts northeastward, lower level flow
will become easterly overnight across much of the forecast area.
This will help to push the frontal boundary farther south, but also
allow that boundary to act as an area of lower level convergence.
Given the current temperature trend and higher dew points,
especially south, trended overnight lows a bit colder, mainly in the
lower 50s northwest to the upper 50s southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024
This evening and tonight...
Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm will develop along a
weak boundary draped across North Central Indiana this afternoon.
This same front will be the focus for multiple rounds of rainfall
and storms over the next several days as it becomes quasi-stationary
in the Ohio River Valley.
Not much cold air associated with the front, but current
observations show a strong dew point gradient through the state. The
boundary is approximately located along a line from Muncie to Lebanon
to Terre Haute with dew points dropping into the upper 30s and 40s
behind the front and a humid airmass south of it with dew points
approaching 60 degrees. Latest IND ACARs soundings this afternoon
show a near saturated 0-1km layer and increasing upper level
moisture aloft with SBCAPE around 1000 j/kg and 0-6km shear around
25-30 kts. Weak forcing along the front and significant dry mid
levels will likely limit coverage and intensity of convection. Main
area of focus for any showers or thunderstorms is along and south of
this boundary, mainly along and south of the I-70 corridor. Radar
imagery already shows a few cells developing in SW IN and moving
northeast. Expect shower activity to expand in coverage through the
late afternoon hours and spread northeastward, then diminishing
around and after 03z. Brief periods of gusty winds, a few lightning
strikes, and small hail expected in the strongest showers or storms.
Tomorrow...
Deep upper troughing developing over the Southern Plains today
begins to shift eastward by tomorrow with a continued
southwest/southerly flow regime ahead of it and into Indiana. The
aforementioned frontal boundary from Tuesday becomes quasi-stationary
over the region and stretches southwestward towards a surface low
developing in SE Texas. Upper level energy along this quasi-
stationary warm front will promote the development of widespread
rainfall along it as the surface low begins to eject northeast.
Heaviest and most widespread rainfall develops south of the boundary
from WVA to KY to AR early Wednesday then shifts northward into
South Central Indiana Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall eventually
overspreads all of Central Indiana Wednesday evening into Wednesday
night.
The airmass north of the boundary will feature saturated low levels
with light winds becoming easterly through the morning, typical of
an airmass north of a warm front of mid latitude systems. Depending
on how much rain falls Tuesday night, there may be areas of fog by
early Wednesday morning as winds become light and the boundary layer
saturates. Continued moist air advection northward over the boundary
will keep skies cloudy all day with temperatures steady in the lower
60s. Instability is fairly minimal at the moment, but would not be
surprised to see a few lightning strikes within the widespread
rainfall over the state late Wednesday afternoon. For more
information on the rainfall and flooding potential this week, refer
to the Long Term Discussion below.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024
The long term looks to be fairly active as the subtropical jet lifts
northward over the Ohio Valley. This accompanied by a deep west
coast trough will lead to consistent rain showers over the next
few days. The largest feature will likely arrive Thursday as cold
air helps set up a stronger baroclinic zone for deep cyclogenesis.
As the low develops upstream of the deep upper level trough Tuesday
night into Wednesday, a warm frontal region should begin to develop
between the low level southerly flow and a developing cold conveyor
belt aloft. This should lead to greater shower coverage into central
Indiana Wednesday night, along with isolated elevated thunderstorms.
Severe risks should remain marginal with the bulk of the shear still
over the Mississippi Valley Wednesday night, but pockets of high
rain rates and even pea sized hail cannot be ruled out.
The low will arrive Thursday, with rain showers and thunderstorms
continuing throughout the day. Shear will be strong near the low
with 50-80kt 850-500mb southerly winds and an east of south near
surface wind in the warm sector. Instability will also be modest in
the warm sector on Thursday including near 7.5 C/km mid level lapse
rates. It total, this should lead to scattered severe convection in
the warm sector, but the current question is where will the warm
sector reside? Ensemble guidance is still widely varied on low
placement for Thursday, and the corresponding warm sector.
Deterministic models are mostly placing the warm sector over Ohio/E
KY, but latest trends are depicting a slight westward shift and
deeper/stronger surface low. This is creating some uncertainty on if
any severe weather will happen in Indiana on Thursday. Using
probabilistics, the greatest threat for severe weather will be over
OH, but this could shift westward into Indiana overtime if trends
continue. Timing has been more consistent with highest likelihood of
any thunderstorms between the late morning and mid afternoon.
Even though any severe thunderstorms look to be confined to Thursday.
Areal flooding concerns are possible for Wednesday night through
Thursday. Current QPF ranges from 1-3 inches through this 24 hour
period, and prior day rain totals could create a more saturated
surface and greater likelihood for areal flooding, and river/stream
flooding.
Temperatures Wednesday night through Thursday are expected to remain
above seasonal normals, although there could be larger gradients if
cloud cover and rainfall become thick/consistent. As the low passes
Thursday night, a brief cooldown into the 50s for highs is possible
on Friday before warm conditions return for the weekend. 6-14 day
forecast guidance suggests ridging will build this weekend into next
week and remain through the end of next week. Although briefly
cooler conditions are possible, the current expectation is for warm
temperatures through much of the next 14 days.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024
Impacts:
- VFR and MVFR conditions this evening and much of the overnight
period.
- MVFR to IFR conditions with rain or thunderstorms are expected
after 18Z on Wednesday.
Discussion:
A boundary was draped across Central Indiana early this evening.
This boundary stretched from MIE-IND to just south of HUF. Dew
points on the south side of this boundary were in the upper 50s to
near 60, providing moisture rich lower levels. To the north, at LAF
and HUF, dew points were in the 40s, with dew points in the 40s and
dry westerly winds ahead of high pressure over IL.
Radar this evening shows an area of showers and thunderstorms, along
and south of this boundary, pushing east within the flow aloft. HRRR
suggests these showers will continue to impact IND and BMG for the
next few hours before diminishing and pushing east. Have used VCSH
for this at the moment. As high pressure over IL builds eastward
overnight and early on Wednesday, lower level flow is expected to
become easterly. With the boundary south of the TAF sites on
Wednesday morning, MVFR to IFR clouds are expected to develop on the
north side of the boundary, particularly at BMG and HUF.
More showers and storms are expected to arrive on Wednesday
afternoon as an upper disturbance arrives providing forcing aloft
with the lower level boundary remaining in place near the surface.
Forecast soundings at that point show a saturated column at most TAF
sites with precipitation expected and MVFR or worse cigs.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1004 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
Regional radar imagery depicts a band of light to moderate shower
activity moving across the Mid-South. There is some potential for
elevated thunderstorms across northern Mississippi overnight,
where isolated instances of sub-severe hail and damaging gusts
could occur. Otherwise, the Mid-South can expect wet and unsettled
conditions to continue as a mid-level disturbance approaches the
region tomorrow. This disturbance will bring the potential for
severe weather to the Mid-South tomorrow morning, with hail and
damaging winds as the main threats. Heavy rainfall also continues
to be a primary concern, particularly across northern Mississippi
and eastern Arkansas where some areas could see 4 to 6 inches of
rainfall. A flood watch remains in effect for these areas until 7
AM on Thursday morning. /JPR
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
An active weather pattern will remain in place through Wednesday
as multiple rounds of rainfall impact the Mid-South. Severe
weather chances remain for portions of the area on Wednesday along
with flooding concerns. A Flood Watch remains in effect through
7AM Thursday for areas along and south of the TN/MS border. Much
quieter conditions will return by the end of the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Mid-
South over the next 48 hours as a stationary front remains draped
over western Arkansas. Expect precipitation activity to train over
the same areas with portions of north Mississippi forecast to see
4 - 5 inches of rain through Thursday evening.
There exists a low, but non-zero threat for strong to severe storm
development this evening as a secondary wave of precipitation
moves into the area. The greatest potential for storm development
will be in the Mississippi Delta, where bulk shear exceeds 60 kts.
Overall, the thermodynamic profile looks relatively meager as
SBCAPE values struggle to top 150 J/kg. However, given the
aforementioned shear and elevated lapse rates, a damaging wind
threat may emerge for a few hours this evening.
Severe weather chances return on Wednesday with the Storm
Prediction Center placing the majority of the Mid-South in a
Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storm development. The 18Z HRRR
continues a southerly shift in the greatest severe potential with
the warm sector situated along and south of I-20. In addition, the
environment across the Mid-South does not look too impressive for
severe storm development as SBCAPE values will remain below 500
J/kg with lapse rates up to 6 C/km. A storm or two may be able to
tap into the existing 65 kts of available bulk shear and produce
damaging winds. However, the greatest threat for this will likely
occur in the afternoon hours over portions of northeast
Mississippi.
The greatest concern on Wednesday will be the potential for
flooding as several areas remain primed from recent rains.
Additional rainfall in excess of 3 inches will further aggravate
rivers and streams, producing a flooding threat across the area.
The Weather Prediction Center has included the majority of the
Mid- South in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall through
Wednesday. If traveling tomorrow, remember to turn around, don`t
drown.
As the aforementioned front finally swings through the area, there
is some signal for a wake low to develop over north Mississippi
before trekking northeast into Middle TN. The greatest potential
for 25 mph + winds will occur Wednesday evening over northeast
Mississippi. Decided to forgo a Wind Advisory at this time due to
criteria only being met for an hour or two before pushing east
into AL/TN.
Much quieter conditions return for the end of the week into the
weekend.
ANS
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
TSRA chances and timing remain the primary forecast concern over
the next 30 hours. Primary convective track this evening will
extend from the Arklamiss through central/southern MS. To the
north of this convection, elevated influx of warm moist air will
increase overnight, with sufficient elevated instability for TS as
far north as MEM by 5Z. While TS remains possible during any part
of the overnight, TS will be most likely timed with the passage
of a shortwave trough between 09Z and 15Z. Thereafter, a midlevel
dry slot may bring a lull in TS and -SHRA toward midday and early
afternoon Wednesday.
HREF ensemble lightning prog depicts increased coverage Wednesday
evening, in advance of a longwave upper level trough. This system
will be quite deep, resulting in a 995mb surface low tracking up
the MS River Wednesday evening. Will evaluate Wednesday night
LLWS likelihood in the 06Z TAF issuance.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ049-058.
MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
556 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
An upper level low and associated vort max, just south of El Paso,
will track northeast across West Texas this evening and
overnight. Mid-level convergence appears to be concentrated just
to our west during the late afternoon and early evening, but
should gradually shift eastward into western north Texas and
southwestern Oklahoma during the evening. This should result in
better precipitation coverage and perhaps areas of excessive
rainfall. Although elevated instability is not overly high,
effective cloud layer shear is rather strong which may promote a
chance of some hail and strong wind gusts.
Overnight, the focus for rain and thunderstorms is expected to shift
northward. Models differ somewhat on how much drier air will be
advected into northern Oklahoma. Did trim guidance PoPs across
parts of far northern Oklahoma and expect a better focus for showers
and thunderstorms will be from west central Oklahoma into central
parts of the state. A few HRRR runs suggest some of the stronger
storms overnight may produce near severe wind gusts, but this
is usually overdone.
As the upper low moves eastward across northern Texas on Wednesday,
surface winds will become more northerly, especially across the
western Oklahoma during the morning. As this occurs, better rain
and thunderstorm chances will shift into south central and central
Oklahoma, especially during the afternoon. Instability will remain
weak and mainly elevated through Wednesday. With higher PW values
across south central and southeastern Oklahoma locally heavy rainfall
is certainly possible.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
Rain and thunderstorm chances will mainly be confined to areas east
of Interstate 35 by Wednesday evening. Gusty north to northwest
winds Wednesday night will continue to advect drier air southward.
Winds on Thursday will remain breezy to gusty, especially during the
morning and early afternoon. Temperatures are not expected to be
very warm Thursday, but afternoon humidity will get rather low across
far northwestern Oklahoma.
Southerly winds will return by Friday and will increase Saturday as
a fast moving shortwave trough moves across the southern and
central Plains. Humidity will slowly improve through the weekend
but mainly dry conditions are expected. Another upper low/trough
will approach the area around Monday of next week. This will
increase rain and thunderstorm chances along with a risk of severe
weather.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to drop into MVFR and some IFR
conditions overnight as rain and some thunderstorms become more
widespread. These will linger through the morning hours on
Wednesday before rain shifts east and ceilings rise. Modest east
to northeast winds will shift to the north tomorrow morning and
become quite gusty by late morning. Gusts above 30kts likely by
afternoon across much of the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 50 61 47 66 / 90 80 10 0
Hobart OK 47 66 44 68 / 100 60 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 51 62 47 69 / 90 60 10 0
Gage OK 43 71 41 69 / 70 20 0 0
Ponca City OK 50 65 47 67 / 50 60 10 0
Durant OK 58 66 48 70 / 70 80 30 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
912 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered off the Southeast coast through
tonight. A powerful storm system will approach from the southwest on
Wednesday and will move through the eastern United States Wednesday
night through Thursday night. Mild high pressure will build over the
Southeast states over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 912 PM Tuesday...
Weakly sheared vorticity continues to spread northeast across the
VA/NC border this evening. Further upstream, a more enhanced pocket
of vorticity is currently producing convection over LA/AK/MS. This
feature will continue northeastward the next several hours and shear
across western NC overnight. Weak lift associated with this feature,
combined with weak WAA/isentropic ascent will favor the re-
development of scattered overnight showers (highest chances across
the west). Otherwise, cloudy conditions and warm overnight lows are
expected (upper 50s to around 60).
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Tuesday...
Still a complicated setup for Wednesday/Thursday as upper level low
pressure moves from Texas into the Tennessee and eventually Ohio
Valleys. Wean isentropically driven showers should be ongoing at
daybreak across the western Piedmont, lifting northward through the
morning hours. By early afternoon, most of the area should be dry
outside of some scattered lingering showers along and northwest of I-
85. These should retreat even farther north by Wednesday evening,
yielding dry conditions across central NC through much of the
overnight hours. Daytime highs should range from the mid 70s in the
west where cloud cover and precip will hold temps back a few
degrees, to the lower 80s in the southeast where skies will likely
break out for much of the day. Overnight lows will be mild area-wide
with low to mid 60s expected.
A robust line of convection is likely to migrate through portions of
the Deep South early Thursday morning, arriving in the Southeast
(and on the doorstep of central NC) between 09Z-12Z. The environment
to our south immediately downstream of the convective line should
feature at least some degree of ML instability, while point
soundings suggest more elevated instability than anything across NC
Thursday morning. Today`s 12Z guidance is hinting at potentially two
rounds of precip with this event - a pre-frontal area of rain in the
morning which may become increasingly surface based as it moves
eastward, along with a secondary band of showers and storms with the
cold front itself late afternoon/early evening. There is still
uncertainty with respect to how much the convection to our south
will limit NC`s ability to destabilize throughout the day. At the
same time, the secondary line of showers may be preceded by a narrow
plume of surface based instability just ahead of significant mid
level drying. Given the copious amounts of 0-1km (30kts) and 0-6km
(50kts) shear present, any storms that develop even with meager
amounts of surface based instability will be capable of producing
damaging winds along with a brief tornado threat. Tonight`s 00Z HREF
should give us a better glimpse of storm-scale hazards and timing
but for today`s forecast issuance, Thursday`s PoPs will still be
near 100 percent area-wide and we`ll continue to message the
wind/tornado/heavy rain threat on Thursday in line with broader-
scale SPC/WPC outlooks. It will also be noticeably breezy/windy
within the warm sector with south winds between 20-25 (gusts to
35 possible as well). Temps will be a bit lower given cloud
cover and rainfall with highs in the lower 70s. Overnight lows
will be noticeably cooler behind the front with readings in the
low to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Tuesday...
Friday will see the passage of a trailing shortwave trough aloft,
and with at least some degree of lingering moisture in place across
the region, some isolated showers can`t be ruled out across the area
on Friday (mainly concentrated along the NC/VA border). As
subsidence takes hold across the region Friday night in the wake of
the departing trough, any lingering showers should diminish after
sunset. This will begin a several-day period of dry weather with
steadily increasing temperatures are surface high pressure sets up
offshore. Look for dry weather this weekend with temps rising into
the low to mid 80s, and eventually the mid to upper 80s by Monday. A
decaying cold front will move through the Mid Atlantic Monday
afternoon (good agreement/high confidence from today`s 00Z
ensembles), but there are conflicting signals in the guidance whether
the associated line of showers will make it to NC or dissipate
across southern VA. NBM PoPs climb up to around 10 percent along the
NC/VA border Monday afternoon, and this seems reasonable at this
point. Some degree of post-frontal cooling is expected on Tuesday,
but not much. Look for highs to reach the mid 80s Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 830 PM Tuesday...
With the departure and diminishing of earlier light rain in the
Piedmont, VFR has returned for central NC for at least a few hours.
MoisT southerly flow will, however, bring the threat of IFR and MVFR
cigs across the Piedmont after about 08Z. Recent HRRR runs have
hinted at some light rain/drizzle across the western Piedmont as
well, mainly impacting INT and GSO, along with some showers
developing between CLT and RDU. Confidence in precipitation remains
low given model inconsistency, but the pattern supports poor
aviation condition at KINT/GSO into tomorrow afternoon, with a
period of MVFR possible at RDU/FAY/RWI through later morning before
VFR in the afternoon.
Outlook: Confidence in sub-VFR conditions increases Thu as a
stronger system moves toward the area, with more widespread moderate
to heavy showers and the possibility of thunderstorms. S/SW winds
will also increase Thu/Fri, with gusts of 20-30 kt possible.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...BLS/Swiggett
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
702 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increasing rain chances late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Highest rainfall chances and amounts focused along and south
of Interstate 44 through Thursday morning. Low potential for
excessive rainfall and minor flooding across south central
Missouri. No severe weather expected.
- Elevated to significant fire weather potential Thursday
through Saturday. Highest potential on Thursday with gusty
northwest winds and low humidities.
- High confidence in drier weather and above normal temperatures
this weekend with highs in the 70s to potentially the mid-80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
A broad 60-100 kt upper-level jet is currently overspread across
the entire eastern CONUS bringing SW`ly flow across the region.
An upper-level low is situated north of Lake Superior and
another is slowly digging into west TX. At the surface, a
quasi-stationary boundary is oriented along, but just SE of,
I-44. This boundary looks to have a vertical persistence
through about 700 mb. WSW`ly flow is overtop the boundary at 500
mb and above. SE of the surface boundary, dewpoints are
reaching into the 55-60 F range and NW of the boundary dewpoints
are in the lower 40s. Across the whole region, highs are in the
upper 60s, approaching 70. To the south in the ArkLaTex region,
strong low- level warm air and moisture advection have been
forcing widespread storms and rain. This will continue until the
upper- level wave kicks progresses through the region and kicks
the system north and eastward.
Increasing rain chances late tonight through Wednesday night:
TL;DR:
There is a 20-40% chance of scattered showers and perhaps a
rumble of thunder or two late this afternoon along a line from
Cassville to Salem. Once the sun sets, chances for rain dwindle
until late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Widespread
precipitation, especially along and SE of I-44 could start
anywhere from 4-9 AM. Generally amounts are between 1-2" along
and SE of I-44 and between 0.25-1" SE of a Versailles to
Pittsburgh line. Much of the precipitation will be north of
boundaries as a precipitation shield, so severe weather is not
expected, but a rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out.
Additionally, highs will be cool in the upper 50s to lower 60s
and lows in lower 50s Tuesday night and mid-40s Wednesday night.
All the details:
Along and SE of the quasi-stationary boundary, cumulus and
stratus/altostratus clouds are developing. Latest RAP output
depicts 100-250 J/kg of weakly capped MLCAPE in this region.
Latest HRRR/RAP runs have scattered showers/thundershowers
develop along the boundary at peak heating around 4-7 PM. These
would be in a line parallel to I-44, generally along a Salem to
Cassville line. Given the presence of instability, these will
bring the chance (10-20% chance) of a rumble of thunder or two,
but mainly these would consist of scattered showers (20-40%
chance).
After this initial band of showers, there will be a lull in rain
chances before they increase late tonight once the upper-level
wave approaches. PoPs are still set at 20-30% for much of the
night as isolated showers can`t be ruled out, but the more
widespread rain chances begin early Wednesday morning. As the
wave approaches, mid-level positive vorticity advection,
850-700 mb WAA, and associated isentropic upglide will
overspread the region leading to widespread precipitation,
especially along and SE of I-44. This looks to begin anywhere
within the 4-9 AM timeframe. Unfortunately, CAMs have been
unhelpful with the timing of onset of this widespread
precipitation. Run-to-run and model-to-model have shown widely
varying solutions, likely because of the complex mesoscale
evolutions of the weakly forced storms in east TX. Once
precipitation starts, however, it will likely (70-90% chance)
stay persistent through late Wednesday night with only brief
pauses, especially the further southeast of I-44 you are
located.
Despite uncertainty in timing, confidence in location and
amounts is somewhat increasing. Latest WPC and model cluster
guidance places the axis of >0.25" of rain along and SE of a
line from Versailles to Pittsburgh with all of our CWA within
the >0.05" axis. This is a more NW shift from the previous
forecast. Additionally, guidance seems persistent in placing the
0.5-1" range along I-44, including Springfield, Joplin, and
Rolla. Amounts begin to vary SE of I-44 where GEFS-weighted
clusters bring near 3 inches in this region while EPS-weighted
clusters bring only 1-1.5" in this region. HREF CAMs clock in
at 1.25-1.75" SE of a line from Branson to Salem. Even with
CAMs and other global ensembles favoring the lower-end scenario,
there is still a low-end chance for excessive rainfall and minor
flooding across south-central Missouri. Indeed, the WPC has a
marginal (1/4) risk for excessive rainfall in this region.
With the surface low passing south of our area, the
precipitation will be part of the backside precipitation shield
north of any boundaries. As such, little instability will reach
into our region and no severe weather is expected. However,
embedded thunderstorms within the precipitation shield are
still possible (15-40% chance). Additionally, with the low
passing to the south, temperatures will decrease with highs
Wednesday in the upper 50s and lows Tuesday night in the lower
50s and the mid-40s Wednesday night. The system then looks to
exit late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
Elevated to significant fire weather potential late week:
After the system clears through Thursday morning, cooler, drier,
and gustier air will filter into the region. Highs Thursday only
look to reach into the lower 60s with lows in the lower 40s.
Additionally, relative humidities will drop into the 30-50%
range with lower values along the MO/KS border. The deepening
surface low that`s exiting will tighten its backside surface
pressure gradient and increase NW`ly winds to 20-25 mph with
gusts up to 30-40 mph. Current NBM probs give a 60-80% chance
for >45 mph gusts NW of I-44 close to the MO/KS border which
would be Wind Advisory criteria. However, the NBM has been
consistently downtrending on wind speeds in recent forecasts and
will likely continue once CAMs are weighted into it. So for
now, max gusts are advertised between 30 and 40 mph.
Either way, the gusty winds and dry air will create elevated to
significant fire weather danger Thursday. For now, Thursday is
holds the greatest fire weather risk as winds will be strongest
then, but the dry air will remain in place through Saturday
which will promote elevated to significant fire danger through
then.
High confidence in above normal temperatures this weekend:
After Thursday, a gradual warming trend will commence as deep
and broad upper-level region moves into the central CONUS. Warm
air will really get going once a surface high departs and
S`ly flow brings in warm and moist gulf air. Highs Friday will
be in the upper 60s, then highs Saturday will be in the upper
70s, pushing 80. Sunday and Monday look to be the warmest days
of the series with highs in the lower to mid-80s. During this
period, lows will also slowly climb from the mid-40s Friday
night to around 60 F Saturday night through Monday night.
The next system then arrives sometime early next week. Details
are still to far out to nail down best timing and type of
precipitation (rain, thunderstorms, etc.), but ensembles depict
14-18C 850 mb temps reaching all the way up to the US/Canada
border in MN/ND, which means a large warm/moist sector will be
in place for the potential of thunderstorms. Later forecasts
will begin to address this, especially after the more imminent
system has cleared the area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
Ceilings continue to decrease as a low cloud deck expands
westward into the Ozarks region, with some intermittent drizzle
spitting from these clouds as they advance. As the intermittent
drizzle begins to widen in both coverage and intensity
overnight, flight rules will drop to MVFR and the drizzle will
eventually strengthen into a respectable rain. BBG`s ceilings
will drop and precipitation will start/strengthen before SGF and
JLN see their most significant deterioration of conditions; BBG
and SGF could see a window of IFR conditions, though confidence
in timing is too low to include IFR cigs at SGF at this point.
Unfortunately, the most recent models are still not consistent
with each other about timing of onset, extent, or location of
precipitation overnight. JLN could see a deterioration into IFR
conditions that aren`t indicated in the most recent TAFs within
the 10-18Z window on Wednesday if the heaviest precip shield
extends further northwest than current models indicate, but
current forecasts keep the heaviest rain remaining SE of JLN.
TAFs will be monitored and updated as needed to reflect the most
current forecast trends. By Wednesday evening, the rain will be
mostly to the east of the TAF sites.
Otherwise, winds will remain northeasterly to easterly and
between 5-10kts. Surface winds will likely get gusty Wednesday
night into Thursday, also introducing a low-level wind shear
concern around 00Z Thursday.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Camden