Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/09/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1200 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some showers developing across northwest Lower/parts of
eastern Upper after midnight.
- Chances for showers and a thunderstorm or two Tuesday morning
- Possible widespread measurable rain near the end of the work week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024
Decaying low pressure is near the MN/ON border. A shortwave is
lifting from southern MN to northern WI tonight, with subtle
height falls ahead in northern MI. Models continue to portray
that these height falls, interacting with continued warm/moist
advection in the low levels, will lead to convection developing
tonight. For now, in the expected genesis region (se WI/ne IL
and nearby parts of Lake MI), only a touch of bubbly mid-cloud
is noted. No precip seen. Still expect showers and perhaps a few
storms to impact nw and far n central lower MI and eastern upper
MI, mainly overnight. But have slowed onset/coverage a bit, and
may do so further if regional radars remain quiet closer to
midnight.
Warm temps tonight, near 40 to the mid 40s for lows. That`s
about 5 degree cooler than normal /highs/ for Apr 9.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Slow moving upper low is spinning
northward across the Dakotas/Minnesota...part of a broader
positively tilted long wave trough encompassing much of central/
western North America. 1005mb surface low north of the Twin Cities
at 17z...warm front extends southeast and has been making its way
north across Lower Michigan/Wisconsin during the afternoon. Drier
air is advancing around the southern/eastern sides of this cyclone
and spreading into the upper Great Lakes...which has helped mostly
clear out the forecast area from morning overcast...some
scattered-broken high based Cu has developed over northwest Lower
as visible imagery gets noticeably darker as the eclipse takes
place.
Upper low expected to continue to propagate northward into northwest
Ontario tonight...and spin a couple of disturbances across the upper
Great Lakes. Associated surface low also lifting north will push
its cold front east across Wisconsin/western Upper tonight but the
front will likely still be upstream of Lower Michigan Tuesday
morning.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Some showers developing across northwest Lower/parts of eastern
Upper after midnight: As the upper low lifts northward tonight it
will send a couple disturbances rotating around it in our direction.
But looks like the impetus of any precipitation chances will be a
narrow but pretty strong northeast-southwest oriented frontogenesis
axis that will align itself across northern Lake Michigan/western
Lower Michigan. Secondary push of deeper moisture/low level theta-e
and colder air aloft steepening mid level lapse rates expected to
allow a narrow band of convection (possibly thunder...already saw
that upstream earlier today) to develop around or shortly after
midnight over Lake Michigan/northwest Lower Michigan and propagate
northeast into eastern Upper into Tuesday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Early Tuesday morning, a 1007mb
surface low moves across the UP dragging a cold front across
northern lower. At the same time an upper level closed low continues
east across Ontario CA (cooling temps aloft). A line of showers with
isolated thunder will likely be seen as this front passes over
Tuesday morning and mid afternoon. Eastern upper will be closer to
the low center and is depicted to have less instability available,
which leads to better chances for just stratiform rain & clouds (the
surface low is and remains occluded). A dry slot will move over
Tuesday evening and last through Wednesday, allowing warm afternoon
temperatures and mostly sunny skies.
Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: As the front passes, most
CAMs print out around a few hundred J/kg of CAPE Tuesday morning due
to those cooler temps aloft moving overhead. Low level lapse rates
(0 - 3km) are around 7-8 C/km. These are a few things that support
embedded thunderstorms in a line of moderate rain along the boundary
as it moves across northern lower. 12Z CAMs are not overly enthused
about these showers forming, with the HRRR confining showers to
mostly eastern upper and the tip of the mitt. However the Namnest
does depict a scattered convection over NE lower. In any case, there
is decent confidence impacts will remain low to no, mostly seeing
brief moderate rain showers with occasional lightning strikes. If a
stronger storm or two can form, the main hazards with that will
likely be gusty outflow winds (50-60 kt mid level jet).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pattern Forecast/Key Messages: Starting mid week, rapid
cyclogenesis will induce a stronger LLJ over the southern
Mississippi River Valley. This will advect decent Gulf Moisture
northward. An upper level closed low will open up into a wave at
this time (early Thursday morning) continuing to become more
negatively tilted. This will accelerate the surface low north towards
the eastern part of the great lakes. There is still high uncertainty
of where the surface low will exactly track, however near 90th
percentile moisture (PW near 0.7ish inches) could move over norther
lower and possibly easter upper too. At this time, models indicate
sufficient moisture and lift for a good soaking rain Thursday into
Friday for northern lower (best chances NE lower). Chances drop off
the farther west one goes due to the current track of the surface
low. There is more than enough time for this to change, and the
position of the largest rain amounts to move around. If the surface
low does get close to northern MI, strong gusty winds will likely be
seen. Again, this all depends on the track.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly VFR, except MVFR cigs develop CIU Wednesday.
Weakening low pressure is lifting north from northern MN. A
cold front from this system swings in tonight. Clouds will
develop and expand into nw lower and eastern upper MI tonight,
and into ne lower MI early Tuesday. Showers will accompany this,
and just maybe a rumble of thunder or two. For now will keep
most places VFR. But lower cigs will become more expansive in
eastern upper MI, and have CIU going and staying MVFR Wed
morning.
Southerly winds will veer sw to w late Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
A short period of Small Craft Advisories will continue from the
Straits east to False Detour Channel plus the St. Mary`s River
through mid evening due to gust east/southeast winds. Winds will
diminish later this evening with no additional headlines
expected through Wednesday.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JPB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
602 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures remain mild through wednesday with highs in the upper
60s to low 70s.
- A wet, active pattern returns through the end of the week. A
slight chance for rain/storms Tuesday night then a much more
widespread, substantial chance for rain/storms Wednesday night
through Friday morning.
- 1.5 to 2 inches of rain is possible in many locations Wednesday
evening through Friday morning, which will likely exacerbate river
and stream flooding again late in the week
- Warm and mainly dry for the upcoming weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024
...Tonight...
We hope you all have a wonderful viewing of the total solar
eclipse this afternoon! cloud cover will remain at 10-30% this
afternoon, although scattered cirrus clouds shouldn`t impact
viewing experiences too much this afternoon. The next
opportunity to see a total solar eclipse across much of the US
won`t happen again until 2045. We`ve been experiencing mostly
sunny skies this afternoon as dry air works across much of the
Midwest. Clouds will increase again overnight from south to
north with mild lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
...Tuesday through Friday...
Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s again on Tuesday thanks to
WAA and southwesterly winds. An active pattern returns this week; A
cold front will move through the area Tuesday evening, bringing
slight chances (20-30%) for rain southeast of Fort Wayne Tuesday
night into early Wednesday. A few sub-severe thunderstorms are
possible as well. More recent runs of the NAM and RAP have trended
towards keeping the more widespread rain south of the CWA in
southern Indiana and Ohio..
A strengthening area of low pressure will lift through the mid
Mississippi and Ohio River valleys Wednesday night through Thursday,
leading to widespread rain chances and a few embedded thunderstorms
too. PoPs increase Wednesday evening (up to 80%) and persist through
the morning on Friday. A soaking rain is likely for many with WPC
QPF forecasting 1.5 to 2 inches across our CWA by Friday morning.
This will likely exacerbate river and stream flooding once again, as
many areas waterways have just come down from heavy rainfall last
week. Highs Wednesday through Friday will be in the mid 50s to mid
60s.
...Saturday and Sunday...
The weekend is shaping up to mainly dry, with highs rebounding into
the low 70s! A slight rain chance exists for Sunday afternoon (20-
30%), but otherwise, expect a sunny and warm spring weekend!
&&
.AVIATION /008Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024
Weak cold front to sharpen through the Great Lakes Tue in
association with ewd release of upper low over nrn MN this aftn.
Late arriving return moisture inadv of this sys will keep any shower
threat well south/east of KFWA Tue aftn.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...T
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
248 PM MDT Mon Apr 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers over the mountains tonight.
- Much warmer FRI/SAT/SUN, with critical fire weather conditions
potentially returning to the plains Friday/Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Apr 8 2024
Rather moisture starved upper wave over AZ this afternoon, with weak
lee surface low spinning up over the sern plains of CO. Convection
to our southwest has been rather sparse today, though latest visible
satellite images do show at least some moderate convective
cloudiness and showers developing over nrn AZ as of 230 pm. Little
in the way of precip so far across CO, though weak mid-level echoes
were finally increasing on the KPUX radar over the Sangres at mid-
afternoon, likely due to very modest instability (CAPE 100-200 J/KG)
and slowly increasing low/mid level upslope easterly flow. Farther
west, some very shallow/weak showers have developed over the ern San
Juans, with occasional flurries reported at Wolf Creek Pass. For the
rest of the day and into the overnight hours, expect a slow increase
in convective coverage across mainly the mountains, as weak upslope
and dynamic lift spread over srn CO. 08/12z and 08/18z models have
backed off on QPF and precip coverage overnight, and CAMs have
followed that trend, with HRRR especially suggesting overnight
precip will be scattered and light at best. Have generally followed
the model consensus and lowered pops and QPF across the area,
expecting only a spotty inch or two of snowfall over mainly the
higher peaks through the night. Interior valleys could see some
sprinkles/flurries/brief snow showers as well, while the I-25
corridor sees mainly virga/sprinkles and the sern plains stay dry.
Clouds should keep most mins in the 20s/30s, warmest readings along
the I-25 corridor.
On Tuesday, precip ends early in the morning with partial clearing
by afternoon. Could be just enough instability to re-fire a few
showers over the srn Sangres/ern San Juans, though again, any precip
looks patchy and light. Max temps drift upward a few degf with
decreasing clouds and slight mid-level warming, though readings will
still end up near to slightly cooler than seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Apr 8 2024
An overall dry period anticipated through the period. Main concern
will be temperatures warming up quite significantly during the FRI-
SAT-SUN time period, with widespread 80s anticipated over the lower
elevations during this time period. These temps will be running
about 15F above normal. Given the very warm temps and continued dry
conditions and increasing winds, Fire Weather Concerns will once
again be on the increase, with widespread low end fire weather
threat expected during the FRI and SAT time frame over the plains.
As for precip, there will be a low end chance of some showers
tomorrow afternoon over the higher terrain, and once again from SAT
and SUN over the higher terrain. By early next week, the precip
chances will be increasing a bit area-wide as another trough moves
towards the fcst region. /Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Apr 8 2024
VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Will carry a vcsh mention
through early evening at KALS as a few showers drift off the higher
terrain across the San Luis Valley, though with very dry low levels,
suspect any valley convection will produce more wind than precip. At
KALS and KPUB, won`t include any vcsh at this point given dry
surface layer, though some virga/briefly gusty winds look possible
until 03z, as weak convection drifts away from the higher terrain.
Mid level clouds clear on Tue, with light winds at KALS and usual
diurnal upslope at KPUB and KCOS by afternoon.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN