Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/07/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
802 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
...Updated Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High winds, blowing dust and wildfire danger will diminish
rapidly around sunset Saturday evening.
- Strong W/NW winds will return Sunday, strongest across the
northern zones including the I-70 corridor. Gusts near 50 mph
are expected along I-70 Sunday.
- Rain chances continue to dwindle Tuesday and Wednesday, with a
strong storm tracking south of SW KS. Rain is expected to
remain mostly in Texas and Oklahoma.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Evening infrared satellite imagery revealed a classic
midlatitude extratropical cyclone spinning over western
Nebraska. The high wind event expected on Saturday went as
planned, with numerous reports of gusts in the 58-68 mph range.
Radar imagery depicted the polar cold front associated with the
cyclone, from near St. John to near Liberal at 7:45 pm. Behind
this boundary, cooler/more humid air was pushing into SW KS, and
the boundary layer was rapidly decoupling from stronger winds
aloft. Both the high wind warning and red flag warning have
ended as of 8 pm. Surface winds will remain elevated, veering
more westerly, and the downslope component will work against
very modest cold air advection to keep most locations above
freezing in the 30s through sunrise Sunday.
Strongly subsident environment behind the departing cyclone will
keep the sky generally clear through Sunday. The exception is a
period of midlevel clouds expected along I-70 for a few hours
early Sunday associated with the cyclone`s wraparound.
After 10 am Sunday, northwest winds will resume quickly after
the onset of mixing. 850 mb winds will support gusts of 30-45
mph for several hours through midday, especially northeast of
DDC, before winds quickly weaken during the afternoon. Neither a
high wind or red flag warning appear to be required for the
northeast zones Sunday, but will pass this along to the incoming
night shift to consider. Interestingly, after such a strong
cyclone, almost no thermal changes are shown in the models on
Sunday, with 850 mb temperatures supporting an afternoon well
through the 60s to near 70 at 5 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
A nearly perfect high wind meteorological set up is in place
Today, with a deepening low over northeast Colorado and a
stacked jet moving into the area from the Southern Rockies in
good timing with the heating of the day to maximize the mixing
and momentum transfer potential for the surface winds.
Based on the HRRR model (an hourly updated short term) the
mixing should start creating surface gusts as early as 1 pm
immediately behind a fast moving surface cold front moving into
central Kansas in response the the pressure falls over Nebraska.
This will result in about a 4 hours window where gusts to 50
-55 knots area possible (around 65 mph gusts) from 1 pm through
about 5 pm. Northern sections of the area, like Hays and Scott
City will probably see winds drop off significantly for the mid
evening and overnight as the jet axis/ source for the momentum
transfer shifts farther south. Winds will remain strong across
the southern counties all night.
Sunday will bring plenty of insolation (warming from the sun)
and breezy conditions with northwest winds returning to gusting
to near 30 mph very early (pre-dawn) even in the north. The dry
and cool advection pattern will brings a range of outcomes from
upper 60s as determined by the NBM’s 25th percentile grid to the
nearly widespread 70s, and even upper 70s in the red hills,
according to the 75th percentile stats.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Sunday night might be the coldest night of the seven day
forecast as the cooler and drier air will cool more efficiently
under clear sky and light wind. Models all show temperatures
withing a few degrees either side of freezing across the western
half of the region Sunday night and Monday morning. Pacific
High pressure will be expanding across the rockies through the
week – resulting in diurnally driven breezy afternoons and
northerly wind trajectories keeping a lid on highs, to generally
in the 60s. The EC/GFS and Canadian deterministic models all
agree on a eastward propagating, forward tilted full latitude
trough shifting across the Rockies Tuesday and a cutoff low
developing across the NM/west Texas area by Tuesday night and
early Wednesday. That system will be the impetus for large scale
lift in the southern plains warm sector for storms and severe
weather while moist likely, north of that area, the potential
for scattered rain showers more likely, or nothing (i.e. our
region of Kansas). The ECMWF and GFS Ensemble multiple run
trends area fairly consistent with wetting rains with this
system for the southern areas – P28 – LBL. They are also
trending a bit drier at HYS at the same time.
Warmer weather on Friday into the weekend as the pattern shifts
to a dry southwest downslope regime again in response to the
changing upper progressive troughing pattern. The ensembles
beyond the weekend, show a lot of light qpf in just about any
period – indicative of the chances for shortwaves producing
showers or storms intermittently through week 2.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Intense SW winds continued at all airports at 22z Sat, with
gusts in the 45-50 kt range. Prevailing visibility in blowing
and suspended dust was averaging near 6 sm, still in the low end
VFR range. All models show wind diminishing very rapidly around
sunset or 00z Sun, as the boundary layer decouples efficiently.
Surface winds will veer due westerly overnight, and remain
elevated at 10-20 kts. A period of midlevel clouds is expected
at HYS Sunday morning, in the wraparound south of an intense
cyclone over Nebraska. After 15z Sun, strong NW winds are
expected at all airports, but at speeds less than those observed
Saturday, gusting 30-35 kts. The exception is at HYS, where
gusts of at least 40 kts are expected after 15z Sun.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the rest of the
afternoon. Relative humidity has dropped to around 12 percents
everywhere behind the rapidly advancing cold front, with extreme
winds making this afternoon a dangerous situation for any spots
that might occur.
The winds will remain gusty overnight to around 30 mph across
the southern half of the area and fire weather risk will be
elevated across areas north of highway 50/400. Significant
meteorological fire weather conditions will again be expected
although the winds will not be as high wind gusts to around 40
mph are expected Sunday afternoon in the north). The issue of
fire weather headlines(watch/warnings) however is not clear as
the winds will be dying off rapidly in the afternoon, especially
over the southern counties where the dry air will be. And where
the winds will be stronger in the north, the RH is unlikely to
get near the criterion of 15% for 3 hours (too low of confidence
to issue a watch).
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...99
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
921 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain returns to central Illinois late tonight into Sunday...with
a low (less than 15%) chance for severe thunderstorms south of
I-70 Sunday afternoon/evening.
- 20-50% cloud coverage is expected during the solar eclipse on
Monday.
- Unsettled weather will prevail for much of next week...with
daily rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
A band of rain and embedded thunderstorms associated with a
vertically stacked low over western Nebraska is shown by radar
mosaic to have arrived in far eastern NE and eastern KS,
approaching the Kansas City metro area. Until these showers enter
western portions of the ILX CWA around 3-5 am, we anticipate a
fairly quiet but breezy overnight period as southeast winds
increase in speed.
CAMs are showing potentially a couple of rounds of showers on
Sunday...the earlier (~3-10 am) of which should primarily affect
areas west of I-57 with minimal instability and thunder chances,
and the later (~9 am - 6 pm) which should cross most of the ILX
CWA and will be associated with a bit more instability and a bit
greater thunder chances. Forecast soundings show elevated MUCAPE to
around 500 J/kg with a dry layer noted near the surface, so the
potential for strong wind gusts mixing down to the surface will
need to be watched. Precip chances have been updated and
resolution increased through tomorrow evening to account for this
anticipated evolution.
All told, this is not looking like a major rainfall event with the
probability of >0.25" of rain at any given point ranging from
20-60%, greatest west of I-55 and lowest near the Indiana state
line.
AAT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
The pressure gradient between a departing ridge axis and an
approaching low over the High Plains will lead to increasing E/SE
winds tonight into Sunday. Winds will initially be around 10mph
this evening, but will increase to 10-20mph with gusts over 25mph
by dawn Sunday. Latest CAMs have continued to delay precip onset
due to the dry E/SE boundary layer flow...with model consensus
keeping most locations dry until well after midnight. Think
showers will become widespread along/west of I-55 after 08z/3am,
with a few showers perhaps reaching as far east as I-57 by
daybreak.
A period of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will occur
Sunday morning before the activity shifts into east-central and
southeast Illinois during the afternoon. Will still need to
monitor an approaching occluded frontal boundary for scattered
strong thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/early
evening: however, 12z guidance has backed off on the severe risk.
NAM still shows a narrow corridor of SBCAPEs of 500-1000J/kg
along the front from Rushville to Taylorville by 21z Sun. Given a
highly sheared atmosphere characterized by 0-6km bulk shear of
50-60kt, any cells that manage to form along the boundary will
have the potential to produce gusty winds and hail. 18z HRRR
continues to focus late afternoon convective development further
southeast from I-70 southward where SPC has focused a Marginal
Risk for severe. Aside from the storm chances, Sunday will be a
windy and warmer day. SW winds will gust 30-35mph and afternoon
high temperatures will climb back to more seasonable levels in the
lower to middle 60s.
Barnes
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Once the front passes, drier air will advect into central Illinois
from the W/SW Sunday night into Monday...bringing an end to any
lingering showers and resulting in clearing skies. Forecast
soundings indicate mostly clear skies along/north of I-72 during
the Monday solar eclipse...with high/thin cloudiness at around
25,000ft further south within the zone of totality. While total
cloud cover will range from 20-50% during the eclipse, the sun
will likely still be visible through the high clouds. Thanks to
sunshine and continued southwesterly flow, highs on Monday will
top out in the lower to middle 70s.
After that, a period of unsettled weather will occur Tuesday
through Thursday as the primary baroclinic zone remains nearly
stationary across the Ohio River Valley. There is still some
uncertainty with regards to how far south the front will position
itself: however, it appears the best chance for rain will focus
across the SE two-thirds of the KILX CWA as several impulses
travel along the front. Latest QPF projections show the heaviest
rainfall perhaps exceeding 2 inches focused along/south of
I-70...with amounts dropping to one half inch or less
along/northwest of I-55. The front will get pushed further south
by the end of the week, resulting in a return to warm/dry weather
by Friday and Saturday.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Largely VFR conditions are forecast at all TAF sites in central
Illinois until mid-day to early afternoon Sunday, when some MVFR
ceilings may form on the back edge of a band of rain. Clear skies
will end as VFR ceilings around 10 kft arrive in the 08-11z time
frame, earlier west and later east. Rain showers should initiate
2-4 hours after these 10 kft ceilings develop. Though an isolated
lightning strike cannot be ruled out on Sunday morning, chances
for lightning increase a bit east of I-55 on Sunday afternoon
(10-20%). Notable (40-50%) probabilities for MVFR ceilings (< 3
kft) develop after 17z Sunday.
AAT
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
857 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A complex low pressure system is bringing widespread weather
concerns this weekend, ranging from high winds, thunderstorms,
and potentially snow. Confidence in snow amounts remains low.
- High winds associated with the low pressure system remain
through Sunday evening. Gusts over 60 mph are possible.
- After the weekend system, a return to a calmer pattern, with
temperatures rising. Elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions return mid to late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Update...a check on the progress of the High Wind Warning versus
the short term models suggests the high winds will not reach as
far north as previously predicted. So, the High Wind Warning
has been cancelled across Arthur, McPherson, Logan and Custer
counties.
It is worth noting the new forecast still predicts 45 to 55 mph
gusts in the cancelled areas. The new gust forecast uses a
blend of the FV3 models, the RAP and HRRR models plus a few
knots to line up with the ongoing gust speeds.
Previous discussion...
A low pressure system over southwest Nebraska is bringing widespread
weather impacts this afternoon. As of this afternoon, a line of
severe thunderstorms is traversing southwest Nebraska and the
Sandhills. Across the western Panhandle, snow showers are occurring
behind the low. The low pressure system is also forcing strong,
synoptic winds, with gusts approaching 60 mph in areas. This system
remains highly dynamic, where small changes in conditions may lead
to large differences in results.
The high winds remain the highest confidence weather threat with this
system. Strong winds aloft have been able to mix down to the surface
quite effectively, bringing widespread gusts across western and
north central Nebraska. As the low slowly tracks east-northeast
tonight, winds will shift from southeasterly to northwesterly. On
the northwest side of the low, a strong jet stream is expected to
persist and intensify tonight. With the synoptic set up in play,
winds are easily expected to reach the surface, bringing more
widespread wind gusts overnight through tomorrow evening. The area
of greatest concern is across southwest Nebraska, where wind gusts
exceeding 60 mph will be possible as the jet descends.
Moving on to the lower confidence weather threat. On the backside of
the low, precipitation is expected to switchover to snow tonight.
Latest CAM guidance shows a very tight gradient across the
Panhandle, with heavy snow amounts (some guidance exceeding 1 foot)
across the western Panhandle. However, across the North Platte CWA
in the eastern Panhandle, the amounts are much lower. In fact, some
guidance places less than 1 inch across the eastern Panhandle. The
better frontogenetical forcing appears to be over NE Colorado and SW
Wyoming, where there is higher confidence in higher snowfall totals.
Latest CAMs still seem a bit divided on where this gradient sets up.
In fact, the latest NAM Nest now places the potential for 8 inches
over Sheridan and Garden counties, whereas the HRRR only puts
upwards of 3 inches in the same counties. Temperatures trended
slightly warmer, but still hang just above freezing. Leaned a bit
more on the lower end of guidance for the eastern Panhandle, as
thunderstorms may drain some of the limited moisture. However, the
potential exists that the tight gradient could slightly shift east
and bring locally heavier amounts.
With the threat of the snow and very strong surface winds, the
potential exists for areas of blowing snow tonight, limited to areas
of snow. As of now, this appears limited to the Panhandle. Although
the snow is expected to be more of the wet, heavy variety, winds of
well over 50 mph will still blow snow around. The highest concern
for blowing snow will be during periods of falling snow.
Sunday, the main concern remains the heavy surface winds, though
lingering rain may remain in vicinity of the surface low. As the low
moves off to the east, winds are expected to abruptly diminish
Sunday night. Lingering showers may also remain in the wrap around
region of the low.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
As both the upper level and surface lows move off to the east, a
period of calmer weather returns through late week. Lingering
chances of precipitation remain on Monday across northern Nebraska,
though any precipitation is expected to be all rain and mostly
light. Although the upper level pattern remains fairly active, any
associated surface systems are expected to miss western and north
central Nebraska. Temperatures remain relatively mild through late
week.
Late in the week, upper level ridging returns across the region,
brining a return of warmer temperatures. Late week temperatures are
currently expected to push towards the 70s. With little
precipitation expected through the week and above average
temperatures, elevated to near critical fire weather concerns may
also return mid to late week, as the region dries back out after the
weekend rain.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Wind and thunderstorms will be a concern this evening. Strong,
gusty south to southeast winds will continue through the early
evening. Winds shift to the west to northwest across southwest
Nebraska this evening as a surface low slowly tracks northeast
across western and north central Nebraska. Later tonight,
showers and MVFR and local IFR ceilings are expected. These
conditions will persist into Sunday morning.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ022-
056>059-069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
643 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Windy conditions Sunday, with easterly gusts of 30-40 mph
- Period of rain showers expected Sunday, with a low potential
(~20%) for a few embedded thunderstorms in the afternoon
- Sky conditions for the eclipse generally look favorable
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Through Sunday Night:
All is currently quiet across our area thanks to the lingering
presence of a surface ridge of high pressure, which currently
remains centered over the western Great Lakes. This surface ridge
axis will shift east of the area tonight as a powerhouse surface
low over the central High Plains occludes under a deepening closed
low over Nebraska. Winds in advance of this system will increase
notably across the Midwest eastward into the western Great Lakes
as the surface pressure gradient strengthens late tonight into
Sunday morning. This will ultimately result in a rather windy day
across our area, with frequent east-southeasterly wind gusts of
30 to 40 mph expected. A period of rain is also expected Sunday,
though it will not be a washout.
A band of showers and storms is expected to develop ahead of a
surging frontal boundary across the eastern Plains this evening.
This arc of showers will then progress eastward across IA and MO
tonight, before shifting across our area on Sunday. The best
chances for rain with this frontal arc of showers look to only
last for about 3 to 5 hours, so it will not be an all day rain
event. The best timing currently looks to be from mid-morning
through early afternoon across my western IL counties (west of the
Fox Valley), and more into the very late morning/midday through
the mid to late afternoon hours across my eastern IL and
northwestern IN counties. We then look to dry out from west-to-
east following this band of showers, so Sunday night is looking to
be precipitation free. The threat for thunderstorms with this
shower activity will be low, with any small threat looking to
largely remain south of I-80. As such, severe weather is not
anticipated in our area.
KJB
Monday through Saturday:
For the all important eclipse day forecast, most of the
guidance continues to favor a dry day as the weakening occluded
cyclone lifts farther north with height rises in its wake.
Partly cloudy skies to start the day are forecast to trend to
mostly sunny by the late morning. Our area is expected to be in a
cloud cover minima between lower clouds to the north and high
clouds to the south near the path of totality during the maximum
eclipse time (2pm CDT hour). As a minor note of uncertainty, the
15z RAP forecast did indicate low cloud cover (albeit thin on
model soundings) north of I-80 through the early afternoon. With
most of the guidance pointing toward clearer skies, feel
comfortable with the official forecast populated by the NBM. Monday
will be much milder and breezy (SW gusts up to 25-35 mph) with
highs well into the 60s to around 70F.
A cold front will approach the area on Monday night, perhaps with
some spotty showers overnight into the morning. If the front slows
enough, there`s a conditional threat for scattered showers and
perhaps even a few isolated thunderstorms near the frontal zone
toward mid day through about mid afternoon for locations primarily
southeast of I-55. The setup is likely to be lacking instability
wise due to limited moisture with dew points only forecast to max
out in the lower 50s. However, if moisture and instability trend
upward some, can`t rule out a threat for a stronger storm should
thunderstorms occur within the CWA. High temperatures on Tuesday
are forecast to be fairly similar to Monday.
The main question for the Wednesday-Thursday period is the
progression of a southern stream short-wave and associated
surface low track. There had been a fairly even split among the
operational and ensemble members between a more progressive system
with its rain reaching our area as early as Wednesday morning and
a slower system reaching our area Wednesday night into Thursday.
Based on the most recent 12z suite though, there was a bit of a
shift toward the slower camp, represented by the ECMWF/EPS and
CMC/CMC GEPS. The operational GFS became a faster and farther
north outlier, with GEFS mean more of a middle ground solution.
With this being said, Wednesday`s rain chances (30-40% PoPs) are
confined to primarily south of I-80. Should the slower guidance
camp pan out, Wednesday has a decent chance to be dry for much of
if not the entire area. Highs on Wednesday will be a bit cooler
than Tuesday, but likely above normal inland (low-locally mid
60s), while onshore winds keep shoreline locations only around
50F/low 50s.
Into Thursday, it remains a plausible scenario for the appreciable
rain with the system being confined to the southeast half or
third of the area. Given the aforementioned uncertainty and
guidance trends, likely PoPs (~60%) indicated primarily southeast
of I-55 on Thursday appear reasonable, with 40-50% chance PoPs for
the rest of the area. Increasingly breezy northerly winds look to
be in store, unless the likely system tracks much farther to our
southeast. Thursday`s temperatures will be cool near the lake and
underneath the rain footprint, wherever it sets up.
Friday will be dry and breezy (WNW gusts up to 35 mph) with
near to slightly above normal temperatures in the mid 50s to
around 60F. Forecast highs warm back up to well above normal on
Saturday, in the mid 60s to lower 70s, though onshore winds may
keep the Illinois shore cooler than this.
Castro
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Aviation Weather Concerns:
- Strong gusty ESE winds developing Sunday, with gusts around 30
kt, possibly briefly higher midday/early afternoon.
- Period of showers from late morning/midday through the
afternoon.
- MVFR ceilings possible Sunday afternoon and evening (medium-
low confidence).
Quiet, VFR weather conditions expected through tonight with
modest easterly winds. Surface low pressure deepens across the
Plains to our west by early Sunday however, resulting in
strengthening east-southeast surface winds and producing an area
of showers which will spread east-northeast across the terminals
during the mid-morning through midday period and persisting
through much of the afternoon. This will also result in steadily
lowering VFR cloud bases, with some potential for MVFR ceilings
by late afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings from high-res
guidance suggest we`d remain VFR at least until evening (with
drier low-level easterly flow fighting against moistening from
rain), though much of the available statistical guidance does
suggest 2500-3000 ft ceilings are possible. A little better
support for MVFR cigs Sunday evening, especially from Chicago
westward, and have indicated such after 02Z for KORD/KMDW (and
earlier for KRFD where MVFR more probable). Will have to watch
guidance trends for earlier MVFR at Chicago terminals.
As for winds, surface low deepens to around 995 mb over eastern
NE, resulting in tightening pressure gradient across the
forecast area early Sunday. Sustained winds approaching 20 kts
are likely by midday, and depending on how deeply-mixed the
boundary layer is the potential exists for gusts above 30 kts
for a time midday through perhaps mid-afternoon. Have included
30 kt mention in TAFs for now, with low-levels expected to be
fairly stable with cool easterly flow. Would not be completely
surprised however to see gusts a few higher gusts if we do mix
a bit deeper, perhaps 35 kts or so. Winds should gradually ease
later in the afternoon and evening, remaining southeast.
Ratzer
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Winthrop Harbor to Northerly Is. IL.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
905 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Surface analysis this evening places a surface low over central
Nebraska with a warm front extending from the low into Eastern
Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex. A cold front extends from the low into
eastern Kansas and West Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show
showers and thunderstorms along the aforementioned cold front in
southeast Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, and into portions of the Red
River Valley in Texas. Meanwhile, the Mid- South is on the back
side of a 1022 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Ohio
Valley.
Forecast overall in decent shape with no changes anticipated at
this moment. A potential still exists for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms later Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as a cold
front moves into the area.
CJC
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
A cold front will push toward the region Sunday with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening hours. A few strong to severe storms are possible. The
main axis of clouds and rain will extend from central Mississippi
into northern Alabama on Monday with good eclipse viewing
conditions possible in the area of totality. Unsettled weather
will return Monday night and continue through Thursday with
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms and locally heavy
rainfall.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Skies are sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with
temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Currently, high pressure
extends from Lake Michigan southward into northwest Alabama. A
warm front extends from southern Nebraska through eastern Oklahoma
and into central Louisiana.
The warm front will continue to push east tonight toward the Mid-
South. Ahead of the warm front, winds will shift to the southeast
bringing milder air and slowly increasing the moisture over the
region. Temperatures will be milder tonight with lows Sunday
morning in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
On Sunday, the warm front will move through the region in the
morning with a cold front moving across Arkansas. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front in
the afternoon and move into the Mid-South. Some of the thunderstorms
could become severe with large hail and damaging winds as the
main threat. An isolated tornado is also possible. Temperatures
will be on the warm side Sunday with highs in the mid to upper
70s. The cold front will move into the region Sunday night with
more showers and thunderstorms forming ahead of the front.
On Monday, the front begins to fall apart in the morning with rain
confined to areas of the Mid-South along and south of I-40. With
somewhat drier air behind what is left of the front, there could
be a period of less clouds over areas of the Mid-South where the
best viewing of the eclipse will occur in the afternoon. This
period of fewer clouds may be short lived as moisture returns back
north ahead of the next frontal boundary with showers and
thunderstorms becoming widespread Monday night. Strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms could return to the region mainly west of the
Mississippi River Monday night.
This next cold front will be moving slowly east across Arkansas
Tuesday and Wednesday and eventually across the eastern half of
the Mid-South Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will
result in more showers and thunderstorms. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible across much of north Mississippi on
Wednesday. In addition, periods of heavy rainfall are possible
from Tuesday through Thursday with total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches
possible across much of the region.
High pressure will start to build into the region on Friday with
dry weather and seasonal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Low level jet (FL020 winds) will increase tonight, in advance of
an upper level trough. These stronger winds off the deck will
partially mix down to the surface after sunrise.
Isolated/scattered SHRA/TSRA will lift through JBR during the
early afternoon, focused along a weak cold front/dryline. This
feature will slow during the afternoon and early evening, exposing
MEM to a longer period of potential TSRA. Line of SHRA/TSRA may
become broken in coverage over north MS during the 03Z-06Z time
frame Sunday evening.
00Z TAFs followed a blend of 18Z HRRR and 12Z HREF ensemble
guidance with respect to TSRA timing and coverage.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...PWB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
715 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions continue into this evening across
southwest/south-central Minnesota.
- Rain arrives late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Additional rounds
of rain likely Sunday afternoon and evening, with showers
continuing into Monday. Chance for a few rumbles of thunder in
southern Minnesota.
- Cooler Sunday, followed by a warming trend through the 50s and
60s by late week. Chance a few showers Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
It`s a relatively warm and windy afternoon across the region, as
temperatures have climbed well into the 50s and low 60s. Surface
gusts have reached speeds near 40-45 mph across western Minnesota,
where a Wind Advisory remains in effect into tonight. Further east,
the winds are nothing to sneeze at, as the tight pressure gradient
and favorable mixing have driven occasional gusts upwards of 35 mph
around the Twin Cities metro. Relative humdities have plummeted over
the last few hours, and are currently between 20-30% across the
area. The combination of very dry air, strong winds, and warm
temperatures all promote favorable conditions for rapid fire
spread. Several hotspots observed on GOES-16 fire detection
products prompted us to extend the Red Flag Warning east into
central/southern Minnesota. Fire weather concerns will persist
into this evening, before minimum relative humidity begins to
climb ahead of the incoming wet weather for Sunday.
Deep surface low pressure located in the western Great Plains is
progged to lift northeast through Iowa heading into tomorrow. The
approach of the surface low will keep the wind fields quite breezy
for Sunday, though peak gusts around 35 mph will fall short of
advisory criteria. A band of warm advection driven precipitation
will develop ahead of the surface low and is forecast to move into
southwestern Minnesota after midnight. This band of rain will lift
northeast through central Minnesota and western Wisconsin for the
first half of tomorrow, expanding in coverage with time. We have
maintained PoPs of 80% or greater as the band of rain moves through.
This will be a "cold" rain event for most of the area, owing to
temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s. With that said, we are
looking at the potential for wintry precipitation to mix in
northwest of a line from Willmar to St. Cloud around mid-morning.
RAP forecast soundings at AXN support the potential for the profile
to cool to the wet-bulb, which will be near or just below freezing.
Given this scenario, we have included the chance for a wintry
mix of rain, snow, and sleet, though little to no accumulation
is expected. A dry period will follow the departure of the
initial band of rain, however CAMs are in good agreement that
additional widespread rain will return for the late afternoon
and evening hours as the upper-level low moves overhead. A few
rumbles of thunder may mix in with the rain in southern
Minnesota tomorrow afternoon/evening, however it does not appear
that storms will pack much more of a punch, though there is one
scenario that needs to be watched. We discuss further below...
Low Chance Thunderstorm Scenario: The morning round of rain and
cloud cover will likely limit the amount of "clearing" that occurs
in it`s wake across southwest/south-central Minnesota, thus low
instability is expected across the region. However, several CAMs
have illustrated the potential for an "arc" of cells moving out of
northern Iowa into southern Minnesota during the afternoon and
evening. Forecast soundings suggest these storms would likely be
elevated, given a notable inversion captured around 850 mb.
Nonetheless, veering within the low-level (0-1 km) wind profile
would suggest the potential for rotating thunderstorms. We do not
expect surface based storms tomorrow afternoon, but the convective
environment bears watching for a low-topped storm that could produce
a brief spin-up. Again, the poor thermodynamic setup limits our
concerns, but we`ll keep have to keep an eye on this low chance
scenario, which will persist until the surface low moves east.
Looking ahead, the upper low is forecast to track northeast towards
Lake Superior early in the week. The forecast progression of the
storm system will keep wrap around showers in the forecast Monday
and into the first part of Tuesday. Unfortunately, this
forecast does not look great for those hoping to observe a
partial eclipse on Monday. However, the wet weather brings good
news for the ongoing dry conditions, as 0.25-0.5" will be
expected at all locations. The latest QPF forecast focuses in on
communities north of the Twin Cities metro for up to an inch or
so of rainfall through early Tuesday (with the majority falling
Sunday). Temperatures will climb into the 50s for the first few
days of the work week, before surging into the 60s on
Wednesday. Most of Wednesday looks nice, before the next wave
moves in from the northwest. This will result in cooler highs
(50s) for Thursday, along with the chance for scattered showers.
Large scale warm advection returns late week, with highs
forecast to climb into the low 70s on Saturday! Extended
guidance brings the chance for precipitation back into the area
by the end of next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
We`re waiting on the arc of showers from the Black Hills down
toward Omaha to get here. Timing hasn`t really changed much from
the going TAFs on the arrival of this rain. Going theory in the
TAFs was that we have prevailing SHRA when precip is expected to
be intermittent, then straight -RA when steady precipitation is
expected. Cigs/vis will remain VFR until the steady rain
starts. It does look like rain, though the RAP and several CAMs
continue to show some snow mixing in late morning out by AXN,
so did intro a RASN mix there. Winds will remain persistent out
of the southeast, only diminishing slightly through the day on
Sunday from what we are seeing now.
KMSP...MSP could see shower activity move in as early as 10z,
though steady rain looks to hold off until 15z/16z. There may
be a window from 22z to 3z where not much more than
drizzle/sprinkles is seen at MSP, but by the end of this period,
we`ll likely see another band of shra and potentially TS coming
up from the south.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR. Chc -SHRA/IFR. Wind WSW 10-15G25 kts.
TUE...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind WNW 10G20 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-
Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi-Lac
Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-
Redwood-Renville-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-
Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for Brown-Chippewa-Lac Qui
Parle-Martin-Redwood-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow
Medicine.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
529 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A powerful storm system will bring strong southeasterly winds
to the region this afternoon into the evening with gusts of
45-55 mph expected. The strong winds will contribute to
extreme wildfire conditions this afternoon.
- A fast-moving band of showers and thunderstorms (100% chance
of development) will move through the area this evening with
widespread measurable rainfall expected. Some severe weather
is possible (10- 20% chance within 25 miles of a point).
- Dry weather returns Monday into Tuesday, with scattered to
broken clouds forecasted for eclipse watchers locally.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
.TODAY...
A strong upper level low pushing east off of the rockies has spun up
a lee cyclone over northeast CO overnight. The low is deepening and
taking on a negative tilt as it makes its way towards the Nebraska
panhandle and brings us an eventful day of weather concerns
including strong winds, extreme fire danger, and the potential for
severe thunderstorms. The low has helped to push a cold/occluded
front across the NE/KS border and draping down into central OK.
The deepening low has prompted a tightening pressure gradient,
bringing strong winds to the entire region. This will continue to
support a strong nocturnal southerly low-level jet through the day
which in addition to deep diurnal mixing will bring sustained
southeasterly winds of 30 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to 55 mph
possible. As of 1:30 PM, gusts over 40 mph have already been
observed in the area. This has prompted a High Wind Warning to be
issued for the strongest winds in the western half of our CWA until
10 PM tonight with a Wind Advisory in place for the remaining
counties.
Fire danger concerns remain extreme today. Despite minimum relative
humidity values remaining in the 30 to 40 percent range ahead of the
front, very strong winds and dry fuels will lead to rapid fire
development today. This has prompted a Red Flag Warning to be issued
for the entire CWA into the afternoon and evening. Fire weather
concerns will remain until this evenings line of thunderstorms and
rain showers moves through.
The potential for severe weather moves into the area late this
afternoon into the evening in the wake of the frontal passage.
Plentiful deep layer sheer is present across the area (0-6 km shear
of 60-70+ kts). Instability will be the limiting factor in this
event with dewpoints struggling to break above 50 degrees. A narrow
corridor or MUCAPE values from 250 to just above 500 J/kg will drape
from southern NE into northern KS ahead of the front. Regardless,
strong forcing for ascent associated with the low pressure system
will prompt convective initiation in South Central NE and North
Central KS this afternoon before pushing east. There is potential
for the development of a few low-topped supercells before a linear
storm mode takes over. The best potential for severe weather will be
from 6 pm to 9 pm west of a line from Columbus to Nebraska City, NE.
The primary hazard will be strong winds with gusts over 60 mph
possible. The HRRR has consistently shown a signal for wind gusts
over 50 kts (approx. 58 mph) working their way into southeastern NE
and some areas of far southwestern IA. Large hail (1" or greater)
will be possible with some of the more isolated strong updrafts
thanks to steep (7-7.5 degree/km) mid level lapse rates. While it is
not the primary hazard, a brief tornado or two can`t be ruled out as
0-1 km shear values of 20 to 30 kts are complimented with modest low-
level SRH values.
Convection will weaken into the evening as convective inhibition
takes over in eastern NE and western IA. An overperformance in
instability in this area could lead to the severe threat creeping a
little further into eastern NE than expected. However, the entire
area is expected to see this fast-moving band of showers and
thunderstorms pass through with measurable precipitation. A quick
0.25 to 0.50" is expected.
.SUNDAY...
The deep low pressure system is expected to track east across
Nebraska and into northwest Iowa through Sunday, bringing more
precipitation chances along its path. The best chance of seeing
measurable rainfall will be late Sunday morning into the afternoon.
A strong gradient in PoPs is present across the CWA with values of
60 to 80 percent present toward the NE/SD border and values dropping
off to 10 to 15 percent by the NE/KS border. Steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates of 6 to 7 degrees/km will be present coinciding with very cold
air aloft. This brings the potential for a rumble or two of thunder
as well as funnel development due to the cold air aloft. A brief
period of hail (non-severe) is also possible. Weekend rain totals
remain between 0.60 to 0.75" north of Interstate 80 with values
dropping towards 0.35 to 0.45" south of Interstate 80.
.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
The upper level low is expected to fill and move northeast towards
the Great Lakes region during the first half of the week. This will
bring southwesterly flow aloft and high temperatures in the upper 50
to mid 60s through mid-week. Cloud cover in response to the
departing low pressure system may impact eclipse viewing on Monday.
The NBM is expecting a strong gradient of cloud cover across the
CWA. The NBM is projecting the southern half of our CWA to have the
best chance of clear skies with the northernmost counties of our CWA
only displaying a 30-40% chance of seeing cloud cover less than 50%
(scattered to broken clouds) during the partial eclipse viewing.
High temperatures are expected in the 70s and potentially the 80s by
the end of the week as upper level ridging builds into the region.
Our next chance of precipitation will be Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as an upper level trough slides to our southeast.
PoPs remain low (15 to 20 percent) and contained to our southeastern
counties at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024
VFR conditions will prevail with strong southeasterly winds expected
to continue through a majority of the forecast period. Winds remain
sustained at 30-40 kts with gusts of 45-55 kts across all terminals.
A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving in from the southwest
to the northeast and pushing through all terminals. These storms are
expected to impact KLNK and KOFK from 23:30-04Z and KOMA from 01-
05Z. Ceilings may decrease to FL040 with this passage. Confidence is
high that this line of thunderstorms will reach all three terminals.
Wind speeds will decrease this evening after the line passes, yet
still remain strong with speeds of 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts
overnight. Strong winds will continue into Sunday with another round
of light rain showers expected Sunday afternoon.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1006 PM EDT Sat Apr 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
As low pressure moves away from the New England coast tonight into
Sunday, high pressure builds in later Sunday before shifting to our
south and east Monday into Tuesday. A weak system arrives Tuesday
night into Wednesday, then a stronger cold front moves through
later Thursday into Friday. High pressure then builds to our
southwest Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast is on track this evening and only minor tweaks were
made to the grids. Winds should diminish over the next few
hours, though a light north/northwest breeze should remain
through the night around 10 MPH. Skies have remained a bit more
overcast but clouds are beginning to scatter out a bit and that
should continue, but not expecting skies to completely clear.
With the increased cloud cover, temperatures have been running a
few degrees warmer than forecast so adjusted temperatures for
the remainder of the overnight as a result.
The upper-level low that has plagued our region with clouds and
showers will finally begin filling and pulling away tonight,
with surface high pressure west of the Appalachians set to build
toward the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic on Sunday. That will
allow for a more stable atmosphere while drier air filters in,
resulting in clearing skies, outside of perhaps the Poconos, for
tonight into Sunday morning. Low temperatures by Sunday morning
will be fairly similar to Saturday morning, with mid-30s in
many outlying areas. With the `growing season` commencing across
much of the Delmarva, we will have to watch the temps the next
couple of nights for frost, but at this point it looks like any
frost Sunday morning down there will be spotty and mostly on
elevated surfaces.
Otherwise, Sunday should turn out to be a more pleasant day as
drier air filtering in limits the potential for cumulus and
stratocumulus build-up during the day. Still, yet another
shortwave catching our area while rotating around the departing
upper-low may allow for some build-ups, especially around NJ and
DE, and the HRRR indicates there might even be a sprinkle in
spots, though likely nothing more than that, with an otherwise
dry day. Highs should moderate by a couple degrees in most
spots, into the mid to upper 50s. Wind will not be as gusty, but
there will still be a northerly breeze.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As the upper-level trough continues to shift to our east we start to
lose the cyclonic flow. As this takes place, surface high pressure
centered well to our north does extend southward and is forecast to
slide across our area Sunday night. This should result in a mostly
clear sky, and with light winds it will become colder with low
temperatures dropping into the 30s for much of the area. There is
some frost potential, with most of our Delmarva zones currently in
the active growing season (where frost/freeze products would be
issued if needed).
The center of surface high pressure then settles to our south during
Monday. This results in a return flow occurring allowing for a
warmer Monday with temperatures expected to be closer to average
(mid 50s to mid 60s). The winds look to be light and becoming
southerly therefore keeping it cooler along the coast. As a warm
front gathers to our southwest and some short wave energy runs up
the Ohio Valley, some high level clouds should top the weak ridge
aloft across our area especially Monday afternoon and especially
Monday night. While a mostly sunny sky may prevail Monday, it does
appear that there will be at least some increase in high level
clouds especially farther north and west during the afternoon.
Something to keep an eye on with the solar eclipse occurring Monday
afternoon.
As we go through Tuesday, it looks to be tranquil during the daytime
hours before some showers may roll through at night. Meanwhile, high
pressure is centered off the Southeastern U.S. coast and with
continued return flow and warm air advection with a warm front,
temperatures are forecast to warm into the low to mid 70s for much
of the area during the afternoon (cooler along the coast). As of
now, the forcing for ascent with the warm front and incoming system
may remain weak especially as the main trough lifts to our north and
therefore the shower activity could be limited Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Summary...Mild overall however unsettled for much of the time.
Synoptic Overview...An initial upper-level trough is forecast to
lift to our north Wednesday, while southern stream energy supports a
trough or closed low sliding across the Gulf Coast states through
Thursday. The latter may then merge with a northern stream trough
that amplifies across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. This
entire trough then pivots across the East through Saturday before
starting to lift out. While there are some timing differences among
the model guidance, the overall flavor of the forecast is for milder
air but unsettled. It may dry out Saturday if the main trough does
indeed start to pivot to our east.
For Wednesday through Friday...This time frame looks to be unsettled
as an upper-level trough deepens and slides across the East. An
initial system tracking to our north brings a weak cold front into
our area with a warm front as well. While there may be a weak wave
on the warm front, the overall forcing for ascent may be more muted
given the main upper-level trough passes by to our north. There
looks to be showers on Wednesday with this initial weaker system,
however southern stream energy may merge with a stronger trough
amplifying out of south-central Canada. It is these features that
then have a strong trough arriving in the East later Thursday
through Friday. Given the currently forecast synoptic setup, the
parent surface low tracks up across the eastern Great Lakes into
adjacent Canada late Thursday into Friday. This will then pull a
stronger cold front across our area, with possibly a secondary cold
front during Friday. Ample moisture and lift will tend to result in
showers or even a period of rain. The current timing may not be tied
to greater instability, and the magnitude of any instability will
determine if thunder can occur. Given the uncertainty with this,
left out a mention of thunder for now. It will be mild ahead of
these features until the may cold front shifts east during Friday,
however an initial east to southeast surface wind will tend to keep
it cooler closer to the coast.
For Saturday...The strong upper-level trough should be gradually
pivoting to our east with some lingering cyclonic flow for a time. A
gusty west to northwest wind should be in place with a tight
pressure gradient and better mixing within a cold air advection
regime. Assuming the system departs fast enough, this day looks to
be dry at this time but it will be cooler (perhaps a shower chance
though mostly into the Pocono region within cooler northwest flow).
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...VFR. Northwest winds around 10 kt. High confidence.
Sunday...VFR. Scattered to broken 5k foot ceilings but not
expecting any issues. North/northwest winds around 10 kt with
gusts hovering near 20 kt, diminishing late in the afternoon.
High confidence.
Outlook...
Sunday night and Monday...VFR, with clouds increasing mostly later
Monday. Light and variable winds, becoming southwest 5-10
knots. Moderate confidence.
Tuesday...MVFR conditions and some showers may develop at night.
West-northwest to southwest to south winds 5-10 knots. Low
confidence.
Wednesday and Thursday...Periods of sub-VFR with showers probable.
East-southeast to southeast winds 5-15 knots. Low confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA was allowed to expire as winds have dropped below 25 knots
across all coastal waters. Another passing trough may continue
to keep wind gusts at least periodically in the 20-25 kt range
tonight into early Sunday morning.
For the rest of Sunday, winds will generally be northerly 10-15
KT with gusts up to 20 KT at times. Seas 3 to 4 ft through this
evening, highest to the lee of DE Bay, dropping to 2-3 ft for
most of Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday night through Tuesday...The conditions are anticipated to be
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Wednesday and Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible,
especially Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
After a brief respite, coastal flooding will become a concern once
again by later tomorrow and especially Monday as we approach the New
Moon. As early as tomorrow morning`s high tide we could see some
spotty minor tidal flooding with the more widespread minor flooding
likely for the Sunday evening high tide for our sites along the
oceanfront, Delaware Bay, and tidal Delaware. This is the higher of
the two tide cycles so the following high tide on Monday morning
probably won`t see as much flooding before more widespread tidal
flooding is likely again with the Monday evening high tide. At this
time we`ve gone ahead and issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for Sunday
evening`s high tide for the areas described above but will hold off
for now on extending it any further than this cycle.
We do not expect any tidal flooding for our Chesapeake Bay
sites.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 5 AM EDT
Monday for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for
NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to midnight EDT Sunday
night for NJZ012>014-020>027.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 5 AM EDT
Monday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for
DEZ001.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to midnight EDT Sunday
night for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...Dodd/Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...Gorse/MJL
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Dodd/Gorse/Hoeflich
MARINE...Dodd/Gorse/Hoeflich
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Fitzsimmons
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
829 PM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong/damaging winds will continue across the mountains and I-25
corridor this evening and overnight, gradually diminishing Sunday
afternoon. Windiest conditions expected tonight along and west of I-
25 through El Paso County.
- Extreme fire danger across the plains into this evening, then
another day of high fire danger along and east of I-25 on
Sunday.
- Some mountain snow Monday and Tuesday. Rain showers for the plains
are less certain.
- Warm and dry the rest of the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024
No real big changes to the forecast this evening. RH values have
improved this evening, and while strongest winds/gusts are
focusing more over and near the higher terrain. With these
trends, have allowed the High Wind Warning for the southern two
thirds of the San Luis Valley expire, along with the RFW across
the plains. The only other update this evening was to add
northern El Paso county to the RFW for tomorrow, as low RH with
continued strong winds look to be in place.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Upper/surface low spinning slowly northeastward into Nebraska this
afternoon, while band of strong mid level westerly winds (60+ kts at
700mb) wraps around the back of the low and across much of Colorado.
Have already seen wind gusts above 60 mph across much of the I-25
corridor and over the mountains, with peak observed wind so far of
76 mph reported at Apache City (along I-25 in Huerfano County). For
the eastern plains and southern San Luis Valley, peak winds are
likely occurring now (315 pm mdt), and expect speeds to slowly back
off this evening and overnight as mixing subsides, though still
plenty of gusts in the 30-40 mph likely into Sunday morning. Along I-
25 and over the mountains/east slopes, windiest period still to come
this evening and overnight, as mountain wave forms and rather
classic downslope windstorm (strong reverse shear/mean state
critical layer) develops. While HRRR and a few CAMs have backed off
slightly on wind gusts overnight, mountain top winds of 40-50 kts
suggest a threat of surface winds in excess of 80 mph in favored
downslope locations, including eastern slopes of the Rampart Range
(Air Force Academy area) and near Cheyenne Mountain. Could also see
some very strong winds over the Wet Mountain Valley and over wind
prone locations in the lee of the southern Sangres west of Trinidad.
Overall, made very few changes to the wind speed/gust grids, keeping
strongest winds along and west of I-25, though a few pulses of
stronger winds and gusts 60-70 mph are likely even east of the
Interstate overnight, including much of the Colorado Springs/Pueblo
metro areas. Still some lingering bursts of heavier snow and wind
across the central mountains this afternoon, so will keep winter
weather advisory going for this area into the evening, but end
winter highlights farther south in the ern San Juans were snowfall
has just about ended. After midnight, any snow across the area ends,
with only some patchy blowing snow over the peaks into Sunday
morning.
On Sunday, mountain wave breaks down in the morning, with downslope
enhancement to wind speeds gradually fading by midday. Still plenty
of wind aloft and a tight surface gradient into the afternoon, so
we`ll stay just "regular" windy (gusts 30-40 mph) until late day,
when winds finally begin to fade. Have upgraded the plains Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Sunday, as RH plummets into
the single digits once again. Max temps will run a few degf warmer
than Sat at most locations as main mid level cold pool slides
eastward.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Winds will finally weaken late Sunday Night into early Monday. As we
move into the start of the work week, a new upper low will push
south through the Four Corners Region, dropping close to the Mexico
border before starting to push east. As it moves south initially,
winds aloft will weaken, with the remnants of breezy southwest flow
becoming more disorganized as the trough axis moves in. Along with
this, some Pacific moisture and synoptic lift will move into the
mountains, meaning that parts of our higher terrain could be seeing
some snow showers. This will occur mainly late Monday afternoon into
early Tuesday. As the low moves east early Tuesday morning,
precipitation will follow it, with the heaviest snow transitioning
from the Continental Divide mostly to our southeast mountains,
specifically the peaks of the southern Sangre de Cristos. At this
time, little to no snow is expected over the plains and I-25.
Temperatures Monday-Tuesday will be on the warm side, with highs in
the 50s-60s across the plains, meaning that as the low translates
across the area any precipitation for the lower terrain will be
rain.
The precipitation forecast is still in flux, with some
inconsistencies between model solutions. Our main forecast challenge
for the first half of the week will be how far south the low goes,
coupled with the speed of the system. Compared to yesterday`s model
runs, the low is diving a bit further south, meaning that our area
is set to get a little less precipitation than models were initially
predicting, specifically over the southeast plains. A faster system
would also limit the amount of QPF we get, which right now is mainly
the GFS solution, with the EC and Canadian moving things along a few
hours slower.
The upper trough will pass through and out of our area by the end of
Wednesday, with breezy northwest flow setting in aloft. For the
latter half of the week, and upper-level ridge will build in
overhead, leading to another brief warming and drying trend. High
temperatures will climb back into the high-70s to low-80s by Friday,
though thankfully winds look generally too weak for any fire weather
concerns at this time. However, winds may start to increase a little
again, as long-term guidance shows the next system moving towards
our area sometime around next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024
VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB, and KALS for the next 24
hours. At KCOS and KPUB, strong west-northwest winds are expected to
continue through the overnight hours, with no real weakening until
early Sunday morning. Strongest gusts are expected from 04Z to 10Z
late tonight into early tomorrow morning at both stations, when
gusts in excess of 60 mph are expected out of north-northwest at
KCOS, and northwest at KPUB. Winds remain gusty tomorrow, though
gusts are expected to remain below 40kt at KPUB and below 30kt at
KCOS after 18Z tomorrow afternoon. At KALS, west winds will be
strongest within the next few hours, with gusts to around 45kt, and
will continue to gradually weaken after sunset.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ058-
060.
High Wind Warning until 11 AM MDT Sunday for COZ060>063-069-
072>088.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ226>237.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...EHR/GARBEROGLIO