Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/05/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
Issued by National Weather Service Amarillo TX
544 PM MDT Thu Apr 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Apr 4 2024
Strong winds will return Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as a potent
weather system moves through the region. South to southwest winds
will increase Friday with widespread gusts of 45 to 55 mph. A few
spots across western NM may exceed 60 mph. A powerful cold front
will then move through Saturday with widespread westerly wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Locations in the southern high terrain and
eastern NM may see gusts of 60 to 70 mph. Critical fire weather,
blowing dust, low visibility, poor air quality, and dangerous
travel conditions are expected. Light to moderate snow is also
possible across northern and western NM Friday night and Saturday
with minor impacts in the higher terrain. Winds will remain
elevated into Sunday followed by quieter weather Monday. The next
storm may impact the region Tuesday with more wind, rain, and
snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Apr 4 2024
A beautiful spring day is in progress across the Land of Enchantment,
with full sunshine and lowland temperatures mainly in the 70s F.
Large changes are afoot, however, as the axis of ridging aloft
that has provided this brilliant weather has already (per recent
RAP analysis) progressed to far eastern NM, with SW flow aloft
behind it. The very dry airmass in place, along with the
aforementioned warm temperatures, should allow for rather
efficient mixing through the remainder of the afternoon hours,
with S/SW breezes gusting up to 25-30mph.
Changes begin more earnestly, at least aloft, tonight, as meridional (SSW)
component of winds continues strengthening, courtesy of an upper-
level low moving inland toward Nevada from its current position
offshore SFO. 500mb winds reach 50-55 knots over western NM by
daybreak Friday, with those at 700mb in the 30-45 knot range.
Winds should mostly decouple overnight, but elevated breezes and
some increase in cloud cover will make for a relatively mild
night, with morning low temperatures generally 5-10 degrees above
normal for early April.
Strong wind and fire weather (see below) concerns really amp up for Friday.
As the upper-level low and its associated trough continue their
trek inland, gradient aloft tightens considerably. By late
afternoon/early evening, the GFS progs a 250mb 150-knot jet streak
moving into SW NM, with corresponding speeds of 75-80KT at H5 and
topping out at 50-60KT at H7, just ahead of an approaching
Pacific cold front. Relatively unidirectional flow and
deep/efficient mixing will make for a windy to very windy day,
especially for SSW-NNE oriented valleys and mountain passes. For
example, NBM probabilities of max wind gusts exceeding 55mph are
around 70% in the I-25 corridor south of Socorro and near 90% in
the Raton vicinity. Existing High Wind Watch for Friday in our
western zones is likely to be upgraded to a High Wind Warning,
with widespread Wind Advisories over the western two-thirds of the
CWA. Blowing dust is likely to be noticeable in the afternoon and
early evening.
Pacific cold front arrives at the AZ border around 00-03Z Friday evening,
ushering in a more westerly wind shift and much cooler air.
Scattered showers move through NW NM, while a relatively quick
burst of snow hits the north-central mountains, focused on the
Tusas range. Several inches of snow may accumulate above 8000 ft.
or so, but not confident enough in amounts for any winter
headlines at this juncture. As the colder air filters in, highs on
Saturday will be 20-25 degrees lower than Friday. The ABQ metro
is likely to only reach ~50 F.
And the winds certainly continue into Saturday! Recent
deterministic runs (e. g., GFS and NAM) have trended a bit further
north with the surface lee cyclone formation…more in east-central
or even NE Colorado. H7 and H85 winds also down a touch from
earlier guidance (about 30-40 and 25-40 knots, respectively, but
not enough to make much difference in terms of impacts. Wind
component perpendicular to the central mountain chain will make
for strong winds there and out into the eastern plains, where
additional High Wind Watches and eventually warnings are
anticipated. Blowing dust again likely to be an issue for Chaves
County, with Dust Advisories and/or Dust Storm Warnings possible
south of Roswell where source regions remain and drought persists.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Apr 4 2024
The powerful storm system responsible for widespread high winds and
dangerous fire weather will become nearly stationary near
southwest Nebraska by Saturday night. Forecast confidence remains
moderate to high on the overall impacts to our region Saturday
night into Sunday. A ~540dm H5 low and ~990mb surface low will
wobble near western Nebraska thru this period while 700mb winds of
45 to 55 kt remain focused along the central mt chain and high
plains of eastern NM. The strongest winds from Saturday will taper
off thru Saturday night then ramp up again over eastern NM
Sunday. Widespread gusts of 45 to 55 mph are possible along the
east slopes and I-40 corridor into west TX. The latest NBM
probabilities for wind gusts greater than 55 mph are still above
40% along the Sangre de Cristos into Sunday so more Wind
Advisories are highly possible. MOS output already shows strong
winds for the I-40 corridor Sunday. Max temps will cool 5 to 10F
below normal by Sunday so it will be rather brisk despite highs in
the 50s and 60s.
There is a relative break in the winds Sunday night and Monday as
the entire storm system ejects northeast toward the Great Lakes
region. Widespread freezing temps will occur Monday morning in the
wake of this system in areas that are getting close to their
average last spring freeze. Folks with any early season outdoor
plants should plan to offer protection from these temps. Southwest
winds will still be breezy over our region Monday ahead of the
next storm system. This next wave will already be taking shape by
late Monday over the Great Basin then dropping south into Arizona
Monday night. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front moving south along
the Front Range will enter northeast NM by late Monday afternoon
into Monday night. The H5 low over Arizona is then shown with
decent agreement shifting east across central/southern NM Tuesday
while the backdoor cold front surges southwest to the central mt
chain. Forecast models have been very consistent the past few days
with widespread rain/snow developing over our region Tuesday
before evolving into a banded precip feature over eastern NM thru
Tuesday night. Temps may be cold enough to support snow and travel
impacts across the high terrain and perhaps the I-40 corridor of
eastern NM.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM MDT Thu Apr 4 2024
VFR conditions are expected for the 00Z TAF period at all TAF
sites. Winds will be out of the south and southwest throughout the
TAF period. Starting around 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts at
times, winds will pick up past 12Z and continue to the end of the
TAF period. With the exception of KTCC/KROW, peak sustained winds
for the remaining TAF sites past 12Z to the end of the TAF period
will increase to sustained around 25-30 kts with gusts between 40
and 50 kts times. Will have to watch for BLDU conditions which
could reduced vsbys at times.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Apr 4 2024
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ON FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
Little change in the Fire Weather forecast. Winds
continue trending upward on Friday as an upper-level jet moves
over western and central NM ahead of the next Pacific storm
system. Deep, efficient mixing will allow for windy to very windy
conditions, with the strongest winds across western NM and SSW-NNE
oriented valleys and mountain passes. Gusts between 45 and 60 mph
are expected across western NM, with slightly lower gusts across
the east. RH readings will fall below 15 percent across most lower
elevation spots. Fine fuels should have little problem carrying
fire should one ignite. Will maintain the existing Red Flag
Warning placement and timing.
A potent cold front will sweep from west to east across NM early
Saturday. Despite cooler temperatures, winds will be at least as
strong...or possibly stronger...on Saturday behind the front. The
strongest winds on Saturday will be across eastern NM and from
the west, however. Despite the cooler conditions, RH values will
still fall to between 10-15% across much of eastern NM and the
middle Rio Grande Valley. With critical fire weather conditions
likely again, have maintained the existing Fire Weather Watch for
the Rio Grande Valley and all of eastern NM. A few inches of snow
is possible mainly above 7500 feet on Saturday as well. Though not
as strong as Saturday, gusty westerly winds will continue on
Sunday across eastern NM with continued low RH. Another round of
critical fire weather conditions will most likely occur in this
area. Another storm system appears increasingly likely to bring
more widespread precipitation from Monday night into the middle of
next week. 53-Schroeder
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 43 69 31 49 / 5 5 40 10
Dulce........................... 35 66 24 42 / 0 10 90 40
Cuba............................ 40 65 24 42 / 0 0 70 30
Gallup.......................... 35 64 24 46 / 0 0 60 20
El Morro........................ 36 60 23 39 / 0 0 60 30
Grants.......................... 34 65 24 45 / 0 0 50 20
Quemado......................... 37 61 25 43 / 0 0 40 20
Magdalena....................... 42 66 30 47 / 0 0 10 5
Datil........................... 37 60 26 42 / 0 0 20 10
Reserve......................... 37 65 26 51 / 0 0 40 10
Glenwood........................ 48 69 34 53 / 0 0 30 10
Chama........................... 32 61 19 36 / 0 10 90 50
Los Alamos...................... 43 63 30 41 / 0 0 50 30
Pecos........................... 40 65 28 43 / 0 0 30 20
Cerro/Questa.................... 44 59 31 36 / 0 0 60 30
Red River....................... 32 56 20 33 / 0 0 60 40
Angel Fire...................... 27 56 19 34 / 0 0 40 30
Taos............................ 33 66 26 42 / 0 0 50 20
Mora............................ 37 64 26 40 / 0 0 30 20
Espanola........................ 39 72 33 49 / 0 0 50 30
Santa Fe........................ 43 66 30 43 / 0 0 40 30
Santa Fe Airport................ 42 70 32 48 / 0 0 30 20
Albuquerque Foothills........... 49 72 36 51 / 0 0 20 10
Albuquerque Heights............. 45 73 36 52 / 0 0 10 10
Albuquerque Valley.............. 44 75 36 54 / 0 0 10 5
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 45 73 36 52 / 0 0 20 10
Belen........................... 40 75 37 55 / 0 0 10 5
Bernalillo...................... 43 74 36 52 / 0 0 20 20
Bosque Farms.................... 42 75 35 54 / 0 0 10 5
Corrales........................ 44 74 36 53 / 0 0 20 10
Los Lunas....................... 42 74 36 55 / 0 0 10 5
Placitas........................ 45 69 34 48 / 0 0 20 20
Rio Rancho...................... 44 74 36 52 / 0 0 20 10
Socorro......................... 43 77 39 58 / 0 0 5 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 64 31 42 / 0 0 20 20
Tijeras......................... 44 66 32 45 / 0 0 20 10
Edgewood........................ 38 68 30 45 / 0 0 10 10
Moriarty/Estancia............... 34 69 29 49 / 0 0 10 5
Clines Corners.................. 37 65 27 44 / 0 0 10 5
Mountainair..................... 40 66 30 46 / 0 0 10 5
Gran Quivira.................... 40 66 31 48 / 0 0 5 0
Carrizozo....................... 46 71 40 53 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 43 64 34 46 / 0 0 0 0
Capulin......................... 37 66 34 47 / 0 0 0 0
Raton........................... 33 70 34 50 / 0 0 10 5
Springer........................ 33 71 36 50 / 0 0 5 0
Las Vegas....................... 38 67 32 45 / 0 0 10 5
Clayton......................... 43 74 44 57 / 0 0 0 0
Roy............................. 40 72 39 51 / 0 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 40 79 43 59 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 38 76 39 55 / 0 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 42 79 44 60 / 0 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 45 80 45 63 / 0 0 0 0
Portales........................ 45 82 47 64 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 40 79 43 60 / 0 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 43 84 49 67 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 43 77 41 59 / 0 0 0 0
Elk............................. 43 74 39 56 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for NMZ101-104-
106-121-123>126.
Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for NMZ201-203-204-
206-207-209>229-241.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NMZ104-106-123-125-126.
High Wind Warning from 9 AM Friday to midnight MDT Friday night
for NMZ202-205-208.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1010 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and unsettled weather will continue into Sunday as low
pressure remains stalled just to our east. Drying out Sunday
night right through Tuesday. Though temperatures trend above
normal early next week, a period of considerably cooler onshore
flow is anticipated for coastal eastern Massachusetts. Our next
chance for showers is around mid to late next week but it is
uncertain which day or days may have better chances for rains.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM Update:
A much quieter evening with mainly dry conditions out there
with the exception of northern MA where a few snow showers are
still lingering. Snow showers across the northern boarder with
NH will continue much of the night with the center of the low
stalling over the Gulf of Maine.
825 PM Update:
988 mb low continues to very slowly meander NNE into the central
Gulf of Maine. This has turned surface winds to a NWly
direction with gusts around 20-25 mph across eastern MA and RI,
and sustained wind speeds to around 10 mph in interior MA and
much of northern CT. As indicated by NAM/RAP-based BUFKIT
profiles, the NWly component is allowing for some drying and
even some cloud-scattering per satellite pics over parts of CT
and RI. It`s considerably cloudier further east and north one
goes, and there continues to be scattered rain/snow showers
taking place in an axis from Greater Boston northward into the
North Shore. These showers don`t seem to be amounting to much,
and recent HRRR solutions which have been handling this narrow
axis of precip the best insist that this band of precip shifts
ENE through midnight. Offered scattered rain/snow showers thru
this period of time following the HRRR.
Forecast challenge for the rest of the night revolves around
cloud cover and how low temps might go, especially for 2nd half
of the night. Even though it doesn`t really feel that way
outside, temps so far have been slow to fall given the cloud
cover and the NWly breezes. Did incorporate milder hourly
temperature guidance through late this evening. Sky cover trends
should hold as is, with more clouds east and north and less
south and west. We may be a few degrees too cold in eastern and
northern areas and that could need some upward adjustments
later tonight. So long as clouds can continue to scatter out in
CT and parts of RI, temps closer to forecast lows in the low 30s
seem on track.
Previous discussion:
Incorporated in the latest 12z guidance, which really didn`t
substantially change what we had forecast. Surface low is expected
to move NNE into the Gulf of Maine and then pull up stationary. No
strong forcing across our area for significant precipitation, but
enough moisture to keep some light precipitation going especially
across northern/northeast MA closer to the low. With winds going
northwest, colder air aloft has moved in, so the temperature profile
would support snow. However forecast soundings suggest that the
moisture in the snow growth region may be lacking at times, thus we
may end up with either drizzle or snizzle (very small flakes). Can`t
rule out a spot of freezing drizzle in the higher elevations since
lows tonight will be close to freezing. In any event, any snow or
freezing drizzle won`t result in significant accumulations, so
no need for any additional winter headlines.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
310 pm update...
All models show that the low pressure will slowly wobble about to
our northeast all day Friday, keeping us under it`s cyclonic
circulation and spinning moisture across the area. So don`t look for
any sun. It`s the typical early spring southern New England weather
of cloudy, damp and cool. Despite the clouds, with the sun getting
higher in the sky, some insolation will make it to the surface and
push temperatures into the 40s. With cold air aloft, this will
generate a little bit of instability and be enough for scattered
light rain/higher elevation snow showers to pop in the afternoon.
Based on the guidance blend, it appears the better chance for any
light showers will be across the northern half of the area and the
higher terrain. NBM was giving 20-30% PoPs, and that seemed
reasonable.
No big changes to the weather pattern Friday night. Still under the
influence of the low pressure to our east. So continued moisture
wrapping around, keeping skies cloudy. Looks like a little shortwave
rotating around the backside of the low will push south overnight
and perhaps spark a few more light showers (or drizzle) especially
for eastern sections. Lows will generally be in the low to mid
30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
310 pm update...
Highlights:
* Cloudy, cool with northerly breezes this weekend, along with
periodic light showers. Dry for Sun but better chances that clouds
decrease later in the day.
* Dry Mon and Tue, but with cooler onshore breezes near the eastern
MA coast Tue.
* Unsettled Wed/Thu as a frontal system approaches, but still
uncertain in the timing and details.
Details:
Amplified, omega-block pattern over northern North America begins
the long term forecast period. In that pattern, a deep upper level
low and slow-moving surface low (the one responsible for the
unsettled weather currently over New England) located over the Gulf
of Maine will be slow to progress eastward through the weekend. We
start to see slightly more progression to the 500 mb pattern by
Sunday night into Monday as we get into the western periphery of
shortwave ridging over the eastern Gt Lakes. These conditions should
favor dry weather through at least Tuesday; however both global
ensemble means depict a strong shortwave trough digging southward
from northern Quebec/Hudson Bay on Tue into the coastal waters of
Atlantic Canada. It`s not a true backdoor front like we tend to see
in the spring months, but the airmass associated with the passage of
this trough is pretty chilly, and a portion of that could spread
into our eastern areas on Tue. Toward midweek (Wednesday/Thursday),
a strong northern stream trough over the northern plains looks to
interact with southern stream trough energy over the SW CONUS; as
this feature moves eastward, it brings the next best chance for
precipitation but there is considerable uncertainty in the details
and evolution of this frontal system.
The Weekend:
With the slow-to-progress upper level low and its associated cold
pocket of air aloft in proximity to Southern New England Sat and
Sun, unfortunately both days of this weekend look cloudy, cool and
raw, along with northerly breezes. Sat offers the best chance for
intermittent/periodic showers being driven by vort energy
pinwheeling around the main upper low, but QPF looks to be on the
light side. Sky conditions may trend more partly to mostly cloudy on
Sun with better chances for decreasing cloud cover into Sun evening.
Cloudy conditions and northerly breezes will tend to drive high
temps Sat and Sun to near to below normal levels with limited
anticipated insolation (highs mainly in the lower to mid 40s Sat,
mid to upper 40s Sun). Clouds and breezes should keep lows Sat night
a little milder than climo, in the 30s. Lows Sun evening though look
quite chilly with decreasing clouds and easing winds; with lows in
the mid/upper 20s interior and upper 20s/lower 30s elsewhere.
Monday:
Mon features high pressure ridging in, and model soundings show
reduced RH through a deep depth of atmosphere favoring mostly clear
skies. Thus conditions as of now appear favorable for viewing the
partial solar eclipse in the local Southern New England area; there
is some indication for the second half of Mon evening that high
clouds could spread into our western areas but this is by no means
set in stone. Highs rebound nicely back into the 50s to lower 60s
under sunshine, with seasonable lows mid 30s to low 40s.
Tuesday:
Tue still looks dry with mostly clear to partly cloud skies. But as
mentioned above, the strong shortwave disturbance digging southward
into Atlantic Canada and its shot of cold low-level air may spread
toward our eastern coastal areas on an onshore breeze. Conditions
further inland and more removed from this shallow cold advection
look considerably milder. Reduced highs from NBM values into the low
50s along the immediate coast, with highs inland in the mid 50s to
the mid 60s, highest readings over the CT Valley.
Wednesday/Thursday:
This period offers the next best chance for showers as a frontal
system comes out of the central U.S. but there are timing
discrepancies in the various deterministic guidance sources that
will need better congruence before we can get into specifics. Given
this uncertainty, I show a gradual monotonic increase in PoP later
Wed through Thurs but this will need to be better refined over the
coming days. Temps in this period appear seasonable to above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Tonight: Moderate confidence.
Initially mainly MVFR for eastern airports, and MVFR/VFR for
the interior airports. Conditions should trend BKN VFR for the
interior airports, but a slower lift of MVFR bases for BOS,
PVD, and the Cape airports. NW winds around 10-15 kt (with
gusts to 25 kt for eastern airports), becoming W thru overnight.
Friday... Moderate confidence
VFR/MVFR with scattered rain/snow mainly north of the Mass Pike.
Winds turn WNW gusting 15-20 knots.
Friday night...Moderate confidence.
IFR cigs with NW winds 5-10 kts
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. MVFR thru overnight, though
very slow lifting of cloud bases is likely. Possible BKN VFR
cigs by daybreak but should become that way by mid morning. NW
winds around 15 kt gusts 25 kt early, become W around 10 kt.
KBDL TAF...Moderate to high confidence. OVC to BKN VFR bases.
NW winds around 10 kt.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with areas
of gusts up to 35 kt.
Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Monday: VFR.
Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
840 PM Update:
Gale Warnings have been converted to Small Craft Advisories on
all waters, although there may still be an occasional gust to
35 kt on the northeast waters thru 11 PM. Small Craft Advisories
were extended into Friday morning for Boston Harbor, later-day
Friday for the nearshore waters, and late Friday night on the
outer waters. These SCA headlines, especially over the eastern
waters, may need to be extended further in time given the slow
fall in rough seas.
Previous discussion:
Overall moderate confidence in the forecast.
Low pressure moving into the Gulf of Maine by this evening will
result in northwest to west winds becoming established across all
the waters. Still some areas of gale force winds, especially the
eastern outer waters, but those will be subsiding early this
evening. Winds will probably remain near or above Small Craft
Advisory thresholds into the overnight hours, however the seas will
take longer to subside -- with 5ft and higher waves expected to
continue into Saturday for the more offshore marine zones. Expect
later forecast updates to extend the Small Craft Advisories further
in time to account for this aspect.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain showers.
Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.
Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.
Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
310 pm update...
Widespread 1.5 to 2.5 inches of liquid precipitation has fallen
across southern New England, and not surprisingly has caused
rivers to rise. The most susceptible rivers are those in eastern
MA and RI where it has been very wet for months now. For the
most part we are only expecting rivers to reach minor flood
stage. The Pawtuxet River at Cranston is currently forecast to
touch moderate flood stage overnight, but that could change
based upon later RFC forecasts this evening as the river models
finally get an accurate input regarding rainfall since the rain
has finally ended. Rivers will be cresting over the next day or
two for the most part. Refer to water.noaa.gov for the latest
river observations, forecasts and warnings.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ230.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ231>235-237-
250-251-254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Nash
NEAR TERM...Loconto/KP/Nash
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/BW
MARINE...Loconto/Nash
HYDROLOGY...Nash
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
808 PM MDT Thu Apr 4 2024
.UPDATE...
Cold front sagged S into the central part of the area this
evening. This timing was faster than models were showing, so
adjusted winds to a more northerly direction early tonight behind
the front. Front will get hung up in the central zones due to
areas of low pressure moving through the region. Stratus followed
the front into Wheatland County and RAP showed it would thin out
around 05Z. Made some adjustments to sky cover to increase clouds
in the far NW. Also added patchy fog to this area. Other issue was
wind speeds in the eastern zones...from KMLS E. 850 jet was
progged to strengthen tonight with around 50 kt possibly mixing
down to the surface. Looking at soundings from various models,
showed chances were slim for high winds to make it to the surface,
however, did bump gusts up to the NBM 90th percentile which
resulted in KBHK gusting into the low 50s mph. Arthur
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Friday night...
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a strong ridge axis over
the western Dakotas (moving slowly eastward) while a powerful
upper low digs south along the west coast. High clouds have
brought mostly cloudy conditions to central and eastern areas,
thickest over central areas this afternoon. Temperatures were in
the upper 50s to upper 60s as of early afternoon. Temperatures are
expected to warm into the 60s and 70s for most areas with
southerly flow over the region. However, cloud cover my hold
temperatures back a bit for some locations. Gusty south to
southeast winds have developed over eastern areas. Wind gusts of
30 to even 50 mph, strongest near the Dakotas border are possible
through the evening hours. A weak wave lifting through western
and central Montana may bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm
(15% chance) to our far northwestern areas late this afternoon
and evening.
Diffluent southerly flow will be in place over the area Friday
into Friday night, bringing chances for showers and perhaps some
weak thunderstorms to western areas late in the day Friday
(15-30% chance), spreading across the area Friday night (20-50%
chance), as an upper low moves into the Great Basin. Highs on
Friday look to range from the upper 50s to 60s over the west to
the 70s, and potentially lower 80s over eastern areas west of
Fallon and Carter counties. There may even be a bit of stratus
over northwestern areas Friday morning as some cold air advection,
and increased surface moisture work in from the north.
Given the warm, dry and breezy conditions, fire weather concerns
will be elevated through Friday. The strongest southerly winds
will coincide with slightly higher relative humidity (near 30%)
near the Dakotas border, with lower RH (teens to lower 20s) and a
bit lower winds west of there into the central zones. Many of the
areas with lower expected RH are also the areas that saw moisture
Sunday/Monday. Will continue to advertise the elevated fire
weather concerns, and reminders to use caution to avoid sparking a
fire.
A few noteworthy probabilities:
--> Wind gusts to 40 mph Late Thu-Fri: 70-90% in Carter/Fallon
--> Wind gusts to 50 mph Late Thu-Fri: 30-50% in Carter/Fallon
--> Record high (77F) Thu: Billings 50%, Sheridan 85%
--> Record high (79F) Fri: Sheridan 50%
STP
Saturday through Thursday...
This weekend will feature very active weather due to a trough and
associated low pressure system strengthening in the lee of the
Rockies. Nearly every part of Southeast Montana will see impact`s
from this system. Uncertainty still exists in the severity and
longevity of impacts, as well as the locations of greatest
impacts. There is uncertainty in the location of the low and how
it interacts with the high pressure ridging over the plains. The
farther north the low tracks the closer we will be to upper level
forcing leading to higher precipitation amounts and higher
impacts. The longevity of impacts will depend on the strength of
the high pressure ridging. The solution favored by the ECMWF which
has about a 50% chance of occurring is strong ridging that slows
the low and makes it take a more northeasterly track trough
Minnesota. This scenario would prolong impacts into Monday and
Monday night. The solution favored by the GFS has the low pinching
the ridging off and the low moving more southerly through
Wisconsin. This would lead to precipitation ending earlier on
Monday meaning lower precipitation totals and less impacts.
There is also uncertainty in the potential for winter impacts
along the foothills for locations such as Red Lodge. Wind
direction will be very critical for these locations. The ECMWF
shows the winds being more westerly leading to less precipitation
while the GFS shows winds being more northwesterly which would
lead to more precipitation. This is the main reason we have held
off on issuing any winter products for these areas. We will
reasses the situation tomorrow to see if any highlights need to be
issued.
Most of the area has a 60-80% chance of seeing 0.5 inches of
precipitation with probabilities lowering to 50-60% chance for
greater than 1 inch for areas east of Billings. For locations east
of Billings, there will be a chance for some general thunderstorms
with this precipitation. With moist Gulf flow wrapping into the
system and winds being out of the northwest, the Bighorn mountains
will see the greatest impacts. They have about a 70% chance of
seeing >1 foot of snow and a 50% chance of seeing >18 inches.
Flooding is not expected to be a concern with this precipitation
as most of the area is experiencing some kind of drought
conditions. Recent much above average temperatures has also acted
to melt snowpack in the mountains reducing the possibility of a rain
on snow situation.
Temperatures on Saturday will be in the high 50s in the east and
40s in the west. Temperatures will fall for most on Sunday with
all locations in the 40s. By mid week there is good cluster
agreement that ridging will make its way back into the region with
temperatures getting back into the 50s and 60s.
Torgerson
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR is expected to prevail through the period with passing mid
and high clouds. An area of low clouds will drop into Wheatland
county and produce occasional IFR to LIFR conditions with ceilings
overnight. Otherwise, a weak disturbance lifting into western and
central Montana may bring an isolated shower to northwest areas
this evening. Gusty SE surface winds will can be expected this
evening and overnight from KMLS and areas south and east of KMLS.
Gusts 30 to 45 mph are expected in this region, with wind gusts
reaching 50 mph near KBHK. STP/TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/070 041/046 037/044 036/050 034/060 038/062 038/063
01/U 48/R 77/O 66/O 11/U 11/U 11/B
LVM 040/063 036/044 033/043 032/047 029/055 035/058 035/060
03/W 47/O 66/O 44/O 11/B 11/B 01/B
HDN 044/075 039/047 034/042 034/048 030/059 035/061 035/063
00/B 59/R 88/O 77/R 21/U 11/U 11/B
MLS 047/077 044/058 038/046 035/049 034/058 038/061 036/060
00/B 37/R 88/R 76/R 10/U 01/U 00/U
4BQ 049/079 044/057 035/041 034/044 033/056 037/059 036/060
00/N 28/R 99/O 76/O 10/U 01/U 00/U
BHK 038/068 039/056 034/043 031/046 032/056 034/058 033/056
00/N 16/R 88/O 66/O 11/B 01/N 00/U
SHR 044/077 036/047 032/040 031/044 027/054 031/057 032/059
00/B 59/R 88/O 76/O 21/U 11/U 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Saturday morning
through Monday afternoon FOR ZONE 171.
WY...Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Saturday morning
through Monday afternoon FOR ZONE 198.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
436 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024
...Updated Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fire weather conditions will arise Friday and Saturday,
favoring the western zones Friday and the western and central
zones Saturday.
- Southwest winds will be significant behind the dryline on
Saturday afternoon, and high wind headlines are being
considered.
- Widespread precipitation remains possible on Tuesday, but
plenty of uncertainty remains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024
Latest water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
reveals a rather amplified synoptic pattern, with a ridge
beginning to emerge onto the High Plains between two powerful
longwave troughs over the eastern CONUS and west coast. Short
range guidance indicates these features will all move slowly
east Thursday afternoon. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is
underway over portions of east MT/WY/CO, and as the surface
pressure field responds, southeasterly winds will increase into
the 10-20 mph range across the central plains. Regarding
temperatures, ECMWF and GFS guidance both agree 850-mb
temperatures will increase by around 3C, which will translate to
afternoon highs warming into the upper 60s northeast to upper
70s southwest. Overnight, radiational cooling will be shunted as
southerly winds of 10-20 mph are maintained, supporting Friday
morning lows only in the mid 30s northeast to low 40s southwest.
Daytime Friday, the surface cyclone that will be spread out over
much of the lee-side of the Rockies will continue to deepen as
the powerful western upper level trough approaches. This will
strengthen the pressure gradient across southwest KS, resulting
in winds increasing into the 20-30 mph range with gusts of 40-45
mph. These winds along with afternoon temperatures reaching the
upper 70s to low 80s for much of the area will foster fire
weather conditions favoring the western zones. Therefore, the
current Fire Weather Watch that`s in effect from 12pm CDT
through 8pm CDT will likely be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
either early this afternoon or evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024
Medium range ensembles are in agreement the powerful upper level
low will be centered over the Intermountain West at the
beginning of the long term period, and eject onto the High
Plains daytime Saturday while taking on a negative tilt.
Ensembles have continued their faster trend with this trough
ejection, which will act to push the dryline and all associated
chances for thunderstorms into our extreme east zones or
outside our area all together. In the wake of this dryline,
very strong southwesterly winds will overspread southwest KS,
easily sustained in the 35-45 mph range with gusts of 55+ mph,
teetering on the edge of high wind criteria. LREF probability
of wind gusts greater than 55 mph is in the 50-70% range from
roughly Liberal/Meade up through Garden City/Dodge City towards
Hays/Wakeeney, but probability of greater than 60 mph drops to
20-30%. Currently, I am strongly considering a High Wind Watch
over these areas Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, much higher
confidence exists in fire weather conditions materializing over
much of our area as dewpoint temperatures crash amidst the
strong winds and afternoon highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. As
a result, a Fire Weather Watch will be issued for at least
Hamilton through Hodgeman counties and south to the KS/OK
border.
Behind this first upper level trough, another trough will dig
from the Pacific Northwest into the Desert Southwest Sunday
through Monday, and begin to eject onto the southern plains on
Tuesday. The farther south track of this wave should allow it to
tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture more effectively, however
ensembles are still in disagreement about precipitation chances
on Tuesday. The ECMWF EPS (GEFS) remains the more optimistic
(pessimistic) solution, showing probability of QPF exceeding
0.1" of 40-50% (10-20%) along I-70 to 70-80% (30-40%) near the
KS/OK border. A widespread precipitation event still appears on
the table for Tuesday, but lingering uncertainty casts
considerable doubt, and trends will continue to be monitored.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 436 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024
VFR/SKC will continue this TAF cycle. SE winds of 10-12 kts will
prevail through 15z Fri. After 15z Fri, SE winds will increase
at all airports, gusting 25-30 kts. After 21z Fri, southeast
winds will increase further, gusting near 35 kts.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Friday for KSZ061-062-074>076-084>086.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for KSZ061>064-074>078-080-084>089.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
847 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024
...Updated for Hydrology...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures at or below freezing tonight and Friday night may
pose a risk to sensitive vegetation across the area.
- Active weather returns for the second half of the weekend and into
next week.
- After a cool end to the work week, a warming trend will begin this
weekend with above normal temperatures next week.
- Some tributary rivers are in or are expected to flood late
this week and into the weekend. See Hydrology section for more
info.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024
Dense low-level overcast covered all of eastern Iowa, northwest
Illinois and far northeast Missouri early this afternoon. 18z
surface analysis showed a near vertically stacked low centered
over northern Ohio, with broad high pressure extending from the
Dakotas southward into Kansas. Latest RAP analysis showed a
pronounced vort max over southern Wisconsin and northern
Illinois, which was produced rain/snow showers mainly across our
northwest Illinois counties. It was chilly across the area with
temps in the 40s, though winds gusting around 20-30 MPH made it
feel more like the mid 30s.
Over the next several hours, precip chances across our east will
dwindle as the vort max and its lift track into Indiana and the Ohio
River Valley. High pressure will subsequently build in from west to
east, with fcst soundings hinting at clouds breaking as low-level
subsidence increases.
With surface winds decreasing underneath the high, temps should have
no trouble dipping near to below freezing areawide. Gardeners may
want to take precautions to protect sensitive vegetation tonight
with the spring green up underway.
For Friday, look for quiet & dry conditions with the surface high
passing overhead. Temps will remain below normal with light winds
and a Canadian air mass in place, leading to highs only in the upper
40s to low 50s. Cold temperatures are expected once again Friday
night with lows in the 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024
Saturday...
Continued dry & quiet conditions with the surface high just to the
east of the region. It will be cold during the morning with lows in
the 20s, but we should recover nicely into mid to upper 50s Saturday
afternoon as southeast winds advect warmer temps into the Midwest.
Sunday on...
Pronounced closed low entering the western CONUS will take aim at
the central Plains and Midwest early next week, with a series of
shortwaves and vort maxes ejecting out of this low into the area.
First chance of showers and isolated storms from this system comes
Saturday night and Sunday with strengthening low and mid-level
moisture advection in tandem with CVA from the approaching closed
low. Confidence is high on chances (70-100%) with good agreement
amongst deterministic and ensemble guidance. A little early to go in
exact detail on amounts, but overall amounts ranging from 0.25-0.75"
area favored.
Daily chances of precipitation will persist into mid-week due to
differing model solutions, though there will be periods of dry
conditions (most notably Monday and Tuesday). Expect these details
to be fined tuned through the weekend.
Temperatures look to warm back up around to above normal with highs
in the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through at least
14z Friday. Guidance is mixed with clouds decreasing overnight,
with low level RH fields still above 70% per latest RAP and HRRR
model runs. Upstream observations show back edge of cloud deck
just south of Eau Claire WI slowly dropping south. In any case,
VFR conditions are forecast to continue. After 14z, there
remains a chance of an MVFR deck developing at MLI/DBQ and have
maintained SCT025 in the TAF. Confidence is still low for this
to occur, as NBM probabilities of MVFR cigs are only in the
25-35% range. North winds under 12kts is expected through the
TAF cycle.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 840 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024
The flood warning has been cancelled for the Wapsipinicon River
near De Witt, which has fallen below flood stage this evening
and is expected to continue falling over the next several days.
On the lower Rock River near Joslin and at Moline, they are
still forecast to reach moderate flood category with the crest
occurring over the weekend. Attenuation of the flood crest will
occur over the next couple of days, but based on the latest
hydrograph trends, the forecast of a moderate flood still looks
reasonable although it may not be quite as high into the moderate
flood category.
Upstream of Joslin, the Rock River at Como continues trending
with a slower rise and appears to be nearing a rather long
flat crest below flood stage. With no additional rain forecast in
the next 48 hours, confidence is high that it will remain below
flood stage and therefore the flood watch has been cancelled.
For the Pecatonica River at Freeport, current observational trends
show the river is still rising albeit very slowly. It may still
reach flood stage later Friday morning, but concerns exist that
attenuation may result in the river falling short with a broad
crest just under flood stage. As a result, confidence is not
greater than 50 percent on it reaching flood stage and therefore
the flood watch has been continued, but will continue to monitor
for any changes.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Gross
HYDROLOGY...McClure
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sprinkles, flurries and light snow showers will be possible
through tonight, with light snow accumulations below an inch
possible in the higher terrain of Marquette and Baraga counties.
- Dry, pleasant weather this weekend.
- Temperatures will trend to above normal by early next week.
- Some rain chances are possible next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024
Afternoon RAP analyses shows weakening low pressure continuing to
exit eastward over Lake Erie. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows
drier midlevel air pushing into the area. This, in addition to
better daytime mixing, has allowed for more breaks in the lower
cloud deck and has even brought clearing skies to the Keweenaw. That
said, where northeast flow is upsloping (particularly across
Marquette and Baraga counties), low clouds remain rather thick.
Sprinkles and flurries continue across much of the UP, but any
potential for light snow accumulations are still limited to the
higher terrain of Marquette and Baraga counties as upslope
enhancement potentially helps us overcome the dry air overhead. Any
accumulations the rest of the afternoon and evening should be well
below an inch.
Otherwise, breezy conditions continue with gusts up to 20 to 30 mph.
Temperatures are ranging in the mid 30s across much of the interior
UP, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the eastern UP, far western
UP, and the Keweenaw with more clearing there.
Heading into the night, the exiting low pressure system phases with
a Nor`Eastern heading towards New England. A shortwave rotating out
from the resulting broad cyclonic flow may kick off more
sprinkles/flurries across the rest of the UP, and may help to enhance
precipitation across and downwind of the upsloping areas in the
western half of the UP. So, we have an expansion of our PoPs
overnight, but any snow totals remain very light at below an inch.
Winds will be on the decrease heading into the evening hours, with
temperatures falling back into the upper 20s under cloudy skies.
Expect more breaks in the clouds across the far eastern UP through
the second half of the night, behind the exiting shortwave.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024
Upper air pattern consists of 500 mb closed lows in the western U.S.
and New England and a ridge across the plains 12z Fri. The ridge
gets squeezed by 00z Sun as the eastern trough does not move and the
western trough moves into the central plains and Rockies 00z Sun. An
omega block sets up then with a closed low off the east coast and
one over the northern plains with a ridge across the upper Great
Lakes and Ontario on Sunday. LES snow winds down on Fri morning and
then dry and quiet through Sunday.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a double lobed 500 mb trough
with one system in the Great Basin area of the western U.S., a
further east closed low over the northern plains 12z Mon with a
ridge across the eastern U.S. The western system dives into the
desert sw while the eastern one heads northeast towards the upper
Great Lakes 12z Tue. This system then heads into Ontario 12z Wed
with upper troughing remaining over the area into 12z Thu.
Temperatures look to remain above normal for this forecast. For the
solar eclipse on April 8th, it looks cloudy for the area with a
chance of rain showers. Low chance pops look to be almost every day
in this extended with a slow moving system affecting the area for
most of the days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 752 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024
Low clouds linger across much the UP this evening in the wake
of the exiting storm system, but at the moment IWD and CMX are
clear of the low clouds and reporting VFR conditions. SAW is
likely getting scattered flurries based on radar but their
ceiling is also VFR. Another disturbance dropping down from ne
Ontario later tonight could bring an increase in lower clouds
again with MVFR conditions expected at SAW and IWD. A gradual
improvement to VFR is expected on Friday afternoon as drier air
moves into the region and skies start to clear out.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024
Northeast to northerly winds of 15 to 25 knots will continue tonight
into Friday before high pressure moves over the Upper Great Lakes
and drops winds down to 20 knots or less through Sunday. Some
northeasterly winds of 20 to 30 knots could be seen over the western
arm of Lake Superior (near Duluth) Saturday into Saturday night as a
troughing pattern settles into the Central U.S. These higher winds
will spread into the rest of the west half of Lake Superior Sunday.
Winds generally look to be around 20 knots on Monday into Tue.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ247.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
for LSZ240>245-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LSZ248.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LSZ249-250.
Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221-
248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
300 PM PDT Thu Apr 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold storm will bring gusty winds, showers and mountain
snow tonight through Friday. Snow levels will fall to between 3000
and 3500 feet. The most widespread showers will be Friday when there
is also a slight chance of thunderstorms. Dry, cool weather is
forecast over the weekend. A Monday a weak trough may bring
scattered showers over the mountains. High pressure building over
the Southwest will bring dry, warmer weather next Tuesday through
Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
At 1 PM, a surface low centered near Reno, Nevada, trailed a cold
front southwestward to Point Conception. This marked the leading
edge of the showers that were moving into Santa Barbara County. The
high resolution HRRR model has light showers over SoCal forming as
early as late this afternoon or evening. Showers will increase in
coverage tonight as the surface cold front moves south with the
first of two shortwaves. The strongest and most widespread showers
will arrive Friday with the second shortwave. Thunderstorms are
possible in the afternoon with the cold core over SoCal and CAPE
increasing to 200-500 J/kg.
This cold core low will lower snow levels to near 3,000 feet Friday,
quite low for any time of year let alone early April, and low enough
for snow showers in parts of the high deserts. Winter Storm Warnings
are in effect for the San Bernardino and Riverside County Mountains,
and a Winter Weather Advisory for the San Diego County Mountains.
Snow and ice covered road may impact travel on I-15 in the Cajon
Pass, and also on I-8 through the San Diego County Mountains.
2-4 inches of snow is forecast from 4000 to 5000 feet, 4-8 inches
from 5000 to 6000 feet, and 8-12 inches from 6000 to 8000 feet with
locally greater amounts above 8000 feet. There could be an inch or
so of snowfall as low as 3000 feet.
Gusty southwest to west winds will increase over the mountains and
deserts this evening through Friday evening. Winds over the mountain
crests and down the desert slopes will increase to 20-30 mph with
gusts from 50-70 mph. Rotors are likely in the Coachella Valley.
Dry, cool weather is forecast Saturday and Sunday. Monday will also
be a cool day with a slight chance for showers over the mountains as
a shortwave associated with an inside slider moves south across the
Great Basin.
Dry and much warmer Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure aloft
building over the Southwest.
&&
.AVIATION...
042030Z...Coast/Valleys/Foothills...SCT-BKN030-040 tops to 5000 ft
becoming BKN-OVC030-050 with tops to 10000 ft late tonight. SCT -
SHRA late this afternoon becoming more widespread tonight/Fri
morning with cloud bases generally 2000-4000 ft MSL with local vis 3-
5 miles in -SHRA. Local terrain obscurations tonight through Fri
morning.
Mountains...Increasing clouds over the mountains through 00Z with
SCT -SHRA/-SHSN tonight/Fri morning with widespread terrain
obscurations in clouds. Westerly winds 20-30kt with gusts 40-60
knots tonight through Fri morning, strongest through/east of passes,
over ridges and on the desert slopes. MOD-STG up/downdrafts and
local LLWS. Rotors likely VCNTY KPSP Friday. Local sfc VIS will be
reduced to 2-5 miles in BLDU in the deserts.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 knots tonight and Friday. Short-
period (7 seconds or less) wind swell resulting in hazardous wind
and sea conditions, especially Friday afternoon and evening. The
Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 8 AM Saturday. Improved
conditions will follow Saturday into Sunday. Strong winds and choppy
seas could produce hazardous conditions again late Sunday into early
Monday, especially in the outer waters.
&&
.BEACHES...
Surf will gradually build through Friday, peak Friday
afternoon/evening, then subside Saturday. Sets to 7-8 feet are
expected late Friday mainly in San Diego County due to the 13-second
swell from 280-285 degrees. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for
San Diego County late tonight through Saturday morning, and a Beach
Hazards Statement for Orange County is in effect for the same time
period where the surf will generally be below 7 feet.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is requested from 7 AM to 7 PM Friday for reports
of rain, snow, snow levels and hail.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory from 2 AM Friday to noon PDT Saturday for San
Diego County Coastal Areas.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday for Riverside County
Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for San Diego
County Mountains.
Wind Advisory until noon PDT Friday for Apple and Lucerne
Valleys.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley-San
Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.
Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Saturday
morning for Orange County Coastal Areas.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Saturday for Coastal Waters
from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm-
Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending
30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Moede
AVIATION/MARINE...Moede