Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/04/24


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
438 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2024 ...Updated Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry through the end of the work week. - Strong weather system will affect the central plains on Saturday, but a eastward trend and weak moisture cast considerable doubt on degree of severe potential for our area. - Higher confidence in widespread precipitation exists with the next storm system early next week, but uncertainty remains with this system as well. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2024 Little change to the short term forecast this cycle as southwest KS sits between a powerful upper level longwave trough over the eastern CONUS, and a ridge over the western CONUS as per latest water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis. At the surface, a ~988-mb low is centered near the southern tip of Lake Michigan, with its influence extending all the way west into the central plains. This cyclone is responsible for another day of breezy north winds, especially across the eastern zones, resulting in afternoon highs staying in the low 60s east to low 70s west. Overnight, the surface low will finally pull far enough away for the pressure gradient to relax over southwest KS, allowing winds to become light and variable. This along with clear skies will support temperatures dropping into the low 30s northeast to the upper 30s southwest. Daytime Thursday, short range guidance agrees the upper level ridge will slide east and begin to emerge onto the High Plains as another significant trough moves over the west coast. In response, lee cyclogenesis will begin across eastern MT/WY/CO fostering winds to flip to southerly. Latest ECMWF and GFS both show 850-mb temperatures will warm by 5-7C, which will translate to afternoon highs in the mid 60s northeast to mid 70s southwest. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2024 Medium range ensembles are in agreement the upper level ridge axis will pass overhead Thursday night into Friday morning as the next powerful trough continues eastward. A broad lee cyclone across portions of MT/WY/CO will deepen ahead of this feature, resulting in southerly winds becoming sustained in the 25-35 mph range with gusts of 45-50 mph by early afternoon Friday. This along with afternoon highs reaching the low 70s northeast to near 80 southwest will foster fire weather conditions for at least our western three counties (Hamilton, Stanton, and Morton), and perhaps another tier of counties to the east. Focus then shifts to a pair of significant upper level trough ejections Saturday and early next week. Medium range ensembles all bring a strong, negatively-tilted trough from the central Rockies into the central plains daytime Saturday. It appears ensembles have trended a bit faster with this wave compared to yesterday, pushing the dryling farther east along with any associated thunderstorm development, but it remains to be seen if this trend will hold. Either way, the good news is moisture return ahead of this wave continues to be weak as NBM probability of SBCAPE reaching 500 J/Kg is less than 35%, otherwise this is the type of system that is typically accompanied by high-end severe weather potential. That said, severe convection cannot be completely ruled out for roughly the eastern third of our CWA. Behind the dryline, strong southwesterly winds along with warm temperatures will foster another day of fire weather conditions favoring the southwest zones. The second noteworthy trough ejection will occur near the end of the long term period, currently expected sometime during the day Tuesday. Both the ECMWF EPS and GEFS indicate this trough will take a much farther south track as it approaches, suggesting this wave will be able to tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture more effectively, but these ensemble forecast systems show quite different mean precipitation forecasts across our area. Mean precipitation from the ECMWF EPS shows 0.5-0.75" of QPF across our entire area, while the GEFS only shows 0.1-0.3". Mean precipitation from the NBM aligns more with the ECMWF EPS, with 0.5-0.8" across our area to go along with widespread likely pops (55-74%). To summarize, a significant precipitation event (by southwest KS standards) appears possible on Tuesday, but this could also be a rather disappointing event if the current GEFS solution verifies, so trends will need to be monitored. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 438 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2024 Excellent flying weather is expected through this TAF cycle, with VFR/SKC and light winds less than 12 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for KSZ061-074-084. && $$ SHORT TERM...Springer LONG TERM...Springer AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
857 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 839 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2024 Clouds associated with an upper level low over the Ohio Valley continue to rotate across eastern Missouri into West Tennessee. Additionally, a tight but weakening pressure gradient continues to result in gusty northwest winds across the Midsouth ushering a cool airmass across the region. These conditions are not optimal for plummeting temperatures tonight. Current readings are mostly around 50 degrees across the region with morning lows expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s. As a result frost is not expected. Thursday, winds should relax a bit and further weaken more tomorrow night. Clouds should also lift out of the area as the upper level low tracks off to the east. We should see our coldest temperatures of the next 7 days Friday morning when much of the region is expected to dip into the lower to middle 30s. Frost is likely Friday morning. Temperatures will trend warmer through the weekend with highs in the low to middle 70s by Sunday. Our next chance of showers and thunderstorms should move into the Midsouth Saturday night and continue Sunday. Eclipse viewing conditions still look questionable Monday, but most of the heavier rain should shift off to our east. && .UPDATE... Issued at 653 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2024 Updated to end the Wind Advisory. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2024 Cool and windy conditions will prevail for the next few days as an upper level low pressure system churns over the OH River Valley. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the northwestern part of the area until 7PM tonight. Rain chances increase to 50-60% starting Sunday as a series of fronts move through. Another active and unsettled pattern begins to set up early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2024 Current KNQA radar depicts a broad swath of showers rotating around the back side of an upper level low pressure system centered over Chicago. HRRR and RAP13 soundings for West Tennessee early this afternoon are showing extremely steep low level lapse rates up to 850mb, nearing 9 degC/km. This very cold air filtering in aloft is allowing the ice crystals to collect supercooled water droplets on their way down, materializing at the surface as graupel. This type of vertical profile will likely remain in place for the next several hours; any more robust showers may actually precipitate graupel more than rain for the rest of the afternoon. Over the next few days, the pressure gradient associated with the upper low will remain fairly tight. The Wind Advisory for extreme northeast AR and the MO Bootheel remains in effect until 7PM tonight for sustained winds above 25 MPH and gusts up to 40 MPH. Though today looks to be the most windy, the pressure gradient associated with the upper low will remain fairly tight for the next few days. Continuous CAA and intermittent post-frontal stratus will keep afternoon high temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal through at least Friday. Expect cool, mostly dry, and breezy conditions through the end of the week. The next noteworthy pattern shift begins on Sunday morning as a warm front lifts north over the area, bringing a swath of WAA showers and thunderstorms. This convection should peak in the late afternoon hours as the cold front finally catches up and pushes through overnight into Monday. The eclipse cloud cover forecast remains finicky since we will be in between two systems on Monday afternoon. The cold front from Sunday night may actually stall out just to our northwest, holding a boundary of warm, moist air (i.e., cloud cover) over the path of totality in our CWA. The early to midweek pattern looks generally wet and unsettled. Another cold front will approach on Tuesday, attached to a more robust surface low ejecting from the southern Plains. Expect several rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week as multiple fronts and systems interact with each other and take turns stalling out. The most likely period for the heaviest rain will be Wednesday morning and afternoon. PoPs are in the 60-70% range all day before and during FROPA. In addition, ensemble guidance suggests ample instability for widespread showers and thunderstorms that could produce upwards of 2 inches of rain in this short period from Tuesday night through Wednesday. CAD && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 547 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period. NW winds will weaken to 7-10 kts tonight then increase again late Thursday morning. CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...CJC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1140 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Deepening low pressure over the Delmarva region will track slowly northeast this evening, passing just south of Long Island overnight. The low will then track northeast along the New England coast on Thursday, remain over or near eastern New England on Friday, then move slowly east out into the Atlantic Saturday into Sunday. High pressure will return on Monday. A back door cold front may approach from the northeast Tuesday into Wednesday as a weakening frontal system approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Per reports of very strong winds along the shores of western Long Island Sound and latest HRRR showing strongest winds persisting well into the night right along the coast out east, have extended the wind headlines until 09Z for interior S CT, also for coastal SE CT and the forks of Long Island. A large upper low over centered over Indiana/Ohio will send a deepening secondary low just off the Delaware coast northeast, passing just south of Long Island overnight. Strong dynamics and thermal forcing along with elevated instability continue to produce moderate to occasionally heavy rain. Max rainfall rates with heavier showers/tstms should be on the order of 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour. A flood watch remains up for NE NJ, NYC, and Long Island as bands of showers/tstms continue to ride up from the south. In addition, a strong pressure gradient to the north of the low, featuring a 50-55 kt easterly LLJ at the base of the inversion, has the potential to bring high winds to coastal locations. Coastal areas remain under a High Wind Warning for the potential of sustained winds exceeding 40 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. Just inland, there is a complementing wind advisory for slightly weaker winds, except for Orange County NY and western Passaic County NJ. Once the low passes farther to the east overnight, winds will back around to a more northerly direction and weaken, drawing some colder air into the area. Inland areas, especially the higher elevations of Orange and Putnam counties in NY may see some wet snow. This could even get into interior portions of SW CT. Little to no snow accumulation is expected with surface temperatures above freezing. In addition, mid level drying may hinder snow growth. The threat of showers will linger into Thursday afternoon. Much of the guidance shows a more organized area of showers passing just to the south and west of the NYC metro Thursday afternoon. This will need to be watched as a subtle shift of the upper low to the north could bring this into the forecast area. Winds on Thursday will be out of the NW with a few gusts up to 20 mph possible. Lows tonight will show a small diurnal change, remaining in the upper 30s inland to around 40 at the coast. Highs Thursday are expected in the mid 40s inland to the upper 40s/around 50 at the coast. This is a few degrees above normal for lows and a few degrees above for the highs. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The upper low slowly departs to the east Thursday night with a slight chance of rain and/or snow showers. Lows will mainly be in the 30s. W-NW winds continue during this time. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Not too much change from earlier forecast reasoning for this time frame, with an omega block over North America translating slowly east and influencing local wx for the most part. Friday looks mainly dry and brisk, with mostly cloudy skies via cyclonic flow around the low as it spins over or just E of the ern New England coast. As the associated upper low starts to move southward on Sat, with a leading spoke of mid level vorticity moving across late Fri night, chances for light rain/snow showers should increase inland Fri evening, and mainly E of NYC late Fri night into Sat. Precip chances should end by Sat night, and Sunday looks dry with partly sunny skies across S CT/Long Island and mostly sunny skies to the west. Noticeably milder wx arrives on Mon with high pressure sfc and aloft building in, with high temps mostly in the lower/mid 60s, except upper 50s across ern Long Island and along south facing shorelines. Model fcsts also continue to show a mid level shortwave trough to the west riding atop the upper ridge axis Mon afternoon, which could produce a fair amt of high clouds during the time of the solar eclipse. Fcst details become more uncertain beyond Mon night as guidance shows the upper ridge strengthening a little, while a closed low drops SE across the Canadian Maritimes, which should send a back door cold front toward the area from New England, and an upper low either approaches the western Great Lakes or gets shunted into central Canada. Splitting the difference between the GFS and ECMWF on timing of any back door cold fropa, with Tue on the mild side (a few deg warmer than Mon) and somewhat cooler temps for Wed, also slight chance PoP from Tue night into Wed. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH IMPACT AVIATION EVENT INTO TONIGHT Low pressure deepens south of the terminals this evening and tracks up the coast tonight and into early Thursday. Periods of rain continue tonight. TSRA can`t be entirely ruled out through 6Z for KJFK, KISP, KLGA. Rain gradually tapers off after 6Z, with much of the SHRA activity ending around 12Z. Some SN may mix into KSWF late tonight or early Thursday. SHRA then become possible again after 18Z, mainly for terminals to the south (KJFK, KLGA, KEWR, KTEB, KISP). Generally IFR/low-end MVFR tonight with cigs 700-1500 feet. Cigs/vis gradually improve during the morning on Thursday with VFR conditions possible after 18Z. Any SHRA in the afternoon may lower categories back to MVFR at least briefly. Strong E/ENE winds are peaking now through about 5-6Z with gusts along the coast upwards of 40-50 kt. Winds then back as the low passes near or over the region. Speeds weaken a bit as they back, with a possible lull in the vicinity of the low center. N to NW winds on the backside of the low, but gusts peaking at around 30 kt. Winds of 50-55 kt at 2kft for the coastal terminals through this evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely through the TAF period for changing and possible fluctuations in flight categories. Low chance of TSRA remains through 6Z. OUTLOOK FOR 03Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday Night: Mainly VFR though MVFR possible at times, especially early. Friday: Mainly VFR. Possible rain and/or snow shwrs with pockets of MVFR. NW flow with gusts 20-25kt. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Northerly gusts around 20 kt. Sunday: VFR with northerly gusts near 20 kt. Monday: VFR with light winds. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Deepening low pressure will pass in close proximity to the ocean waters overnight. A strong pressure gradient north of the low will drive a strengthening easterly wind, producing a period of 50-kt wind gusts. Significant wave heights on the ocean seas reach 13-16 ft on the ocean and 9-11 ft on the Sound, with max seas even higher. Storm Warnings remain in effect for all waters through the first half of tonight, and have been extended until 5 AM for the ern ocean waters/Sound/Peconic & Gardiners Bay. Winds will quickly fall off behind the low for the second half of the night on the other waters, and any period of gales will be short-lived. SCA conditions will linger on the ocean waters Thu into Thu night due to elevated seas. Longer term, SCA cond should persist on the ocean from Fri into Sat morning as low pressure remains nearly stationary over or just E of the ern New England coast, with NW flow gusting to 25 kt and seas 5-7 ft. Some gusts up to 25 kt are also possible on the non ocean waters Fri afternoon/evening. SCA cond also possible in N flow on the ern ocean waters late Sat night into Sunday morning as low pressure finally pulls away to the east. && .HYDROLOGY... An additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain expected overnight, with some locally higher totals just over 1/2 inch possible, except 1/2 to 1 inch in heavier showers/tstms across parts of Long Island and SE CT. Flood watch remains in effect for any poor drainage/nuisance flooding occurring with this activity. Smaller streams in NE NJ have mostly peaked at action stage but could experience secondary rises overnight with this activity. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Around 2.5-3 ft of surge is needed for minor coastal flooding this eve and around 3.5-4 ft for moderate coastal flooding. With E winds ramping up to storm force during the time of high tide, as well as building wave action, widespread moderate coastal flood thresholds are likely to be eclipsed along the southern and eastern bays of Long Island and along the western Sound. Elsewhere widespread minor coastal flooding likely. In addition, the combination of heavy rain and elevated water levels this afternoon and evening may enhance the localized flash flood threat along some shoreline roads and properties. Easterly winds gradually subside late tonight as low pressure moves over the area, and then switch to NW gales behind the low Thu AM. High easterly swells will likely inhibit drainage, particularly bay areas, bringing potential for widespread moderate flooding (locally major for the southern and eastern bays of Long Island) late tonight into early Thu morning. The coverage and areas of greatest coastal flood impact will be highly dependent on track of the low, and timing of the wind shift from easterly SCA/Gales to northwest gales. Forecast is based on a 75th percentile of Stevens, blended with ETSS, STOFS guidance, which applies a bit of margin for safety. This will be refined over the next 24 hours. Along the oceanfront, breaking waves of 6-10 ft into Thursday morning, along with elevated water levels, will result in widespread beach flooding and erosion. Scattered areas of dune erosion with localized overwashes are likely during the times of high tide Wed afternoon into Thursday morning. Along Long Island Sound, breaking waves of 3-7 ft this evening, along with elevated water levels, will result in beach erosion with damage to shoreline structures possible. Wave splashover over bulkheads and seawalls will likely exacerbate flooding of shoreline roadways and properties. A similar threat exists for the twin forks, with breaking waves of 4-8 ft this evening and Thursday morning. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ005>008. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ009-010. High Wind Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ011-012. Coastal Flood Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ011-012. NY...Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ071-073- 078-176-177. High Wind Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ079-081. Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ072>075-078>081- 176>179. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ072-074- 075. Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ068-070. Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Thursday for NYZ079-081. Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Thursday for NYZ080-179. Coastal Flood Warning from 3 AM to 7 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ178. NJ...Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ006-104- 106-108. MARINE...Storm Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-340-350. Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ335-338-345-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/DW NEAR TERM...Goodman/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...MW MARINE...Goodman/DW HYDROLOGY...Goodman/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1057 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 Only minor tweaks were made to sky cover and temperature trends, but no significant changes were made to the forecast package. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 405 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 A cold front is pushing through the region this afternoon, taking the last of the rain with it. Drier air is filtering in behind the front and will push the clouds out of the area this evening. High pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico and low pressure over the northeast will keep a tight pressure gradient overhead through Thursday afternoon, so winds will remain somewhat elevated between 10 to 20 mph out of the northwest with an occasional gust up to 30 mph. Below normal temperatures are anticipated through the period thanks to those northwesterly winds. Middle 40s to lower 50s are on deck tonight before warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 405 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 Upper ridging is expected to build in with the exit of a large upper trough off the east coast. At the surface, high pressure will build in over the Gulf of Mexico setting the stage for benign conditions across the forecast area through the duration of the short term forecast period. The main focus of the short term will be gusty winds across the forecast area as the aforementioned surface high pressure builds in, tightening the pressure gradient over our area as a surface low meanders off the Northeastern US coast. Winds will calm down in the overnight hours as the boundary layer decouples closer to the surface. Overnight lows going into Friday will range from the mid 40s to low 50s, perhaps remaining in the low 40s in our typical cold spots in portions of our northernmost SW GA counties. Temperatures will then warm into the upper 60s across our northernmost SE AL and SW GA counties to mid 70s across our FL counties during the afternoon on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 405 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 High pressure and benign conditions will hang on before the arrival of our next upper trough around the middle of next week. Some small chances of showers exist across our SE AL counties as weak forcing aloft overspreads the region ahead of a slow moving cold front. Chances for rain increase on Wednesday as the cold front begins trekking toward the forecast area as the aforementioned upper trough begins ejecting east with an active subtropical jet influence. Severe threat appears low at this time, though it is subject to change given how far away it is in this forecast package. Daily highs will begin in the mid to upper 70s with a warming trend expected to kick off the work week bringing low 80s to our area Monday and beyond. Low temperatures will also see a warming trend kicking off Saturday morning in the 40s, warming to the 60s by Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1049 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 3Z Update: added LLWS at all terminals during the overnight hrs based on VWPs showing westerly winds of 30-35 kts at 2kft with some obs reporting lgt winds, and the latest HRRR wind trends. 6Z Discussion: VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Gusts will continue subsiding across all sites this evening, though breezy sustained winds will continue especially across KDHN and KABY. Stronger winds and gusts will resume across all sites beginning 14-15z tomorrow and last through the evening once again. && .MARINE... Issued at 405 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 With the passage of a cold front this afternoon, advisory conditions are expected to persist as a tight pressure gradient is left in its wake. Fresh to occasionally strong breezes are expected to persist through late Thursday to early Friday morning with wave heights 5-7ft. Favorable boating conditions are expected to return this weekend as high pressure builds in and brings benign conditions to our waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 405 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 Fire weather conditions are not anticipated the next several days. However, dry air arriving this afternoon will stick around through the end of the week with minimum RH values dropping to between 25 to 35 percent Thursday and Friday. Mixing heights over 5k feet are anticipated the next couple of days along with breezy northwesterly transport winds. This will lead to high dispersions through the work week and into the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 405 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 Currently, a few rivers in our Ochlockonee and Suwannee basins remain in action stage, though they are expected to continue falling. No meaningful rainfall is forecast through the remainder of the forecast period leading to no hydrologic concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 49 71 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 54 69 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 46 68 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 46 67 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 49 69 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 51 70 49 73 / 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 55 67 53 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ NEAR TERM...Reese SHORT TERM...Worster LONG TERM....Worster AVIATION...Worster/IG3 MARINE...Worster FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Worster