Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/03/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
709 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rapidly evolving late-season system will continue to bring
heavy snow across portions of West-Central Wisconsin. Highest
amounts of 5 to 8 inches are expected in the area where a
Winter Storm Warning is in effect with locally higher amounts,
particularly on ridgetops. Amounts begin to lessen as you
head west of the Mississippi River.
- Increased Winds of 35 to 50 mph Move Through The Area Tonight
Through Wednesday. Heavier Snow Will Limiting Blowing
Potential However Impacts From Decreasing Visibilities Cannot
Be Ruled Out
- Lasting Impacts From Todays Low Pressure This Week Into The Weekend
Remain Uncertain: Lingering Precipitation Potential And
Weekend Synoptic Setup
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
Banded Snowfall Continues Through The Afternoon:
Snow, potentially heavy at times in localized bands will continue
through the afternoon. As a surface low centered over MO/IL
continues to push northeastward towards Lake Michigan, two forcing
regimes have be noted across the region late this morning and into
the afternoon. Over the course of this morning some bands of 500-
700mb frontogenesis allowed for fairly intense snowfall rates with a
wide range of snowfall reports depending on residence time in
heavier snow bands. As a result, impacts vary over short distances
resulting in rapidly snow-covered roads in spots with heavy snow
rates. When precipitation lightens, improvement in road conditions
has been noted. As the rest of the afternoon continues, the
precipitation shield northwest of the low will continue to
progress through the region as the low continues to deepen.
Consequently, have decided to expand the Winter Weather Advisory
further west with a start time at 18z to account for the
ongoing conditions.
Snow Overnight Tuesday and Wednesday, Highest Accumulations are
expected across West-Central Wisconsin:
As we begin to head into the overnight, snow will persist as the
aforementioned low pressure system begins to deepen
dramatically across the Lake Michigan to around 980mb overnight.
Furthermore, the recent runs of the RAP continue to indicate a
strong 600mb frontogenesis signal moving in during the overnight
which when considering an increasing westward extent in the
02.12z snowfall rates probabilities of 1" per hour or greater in
Adams and Juneau counties. Therefore, decided to expand the
Winter Storm Warning to include Monroe, Vernon, and Richland
counties to account for this signal with the 02.12z HREF having
very high probabilities (80-100% chance) of 6 inches or
greater.
While there is a significant signal in the recent CAMs for high snow
totals, there remains some caveats to this. First, the highest
totals will likely pertain to the ridgetops where thermodynamics
and surface temperatures will be more favorable and snow to
liquid ratios will be higher. Furthermore, what remains
uncertain with this is how localized frontogenesis features will
pan out throughout the rest of the event. As has been noticed
this afternoon locally where a very narrow, persistent,
frontogenesis band has been situated over portions of the La
Crosse area. Additional features could present themselves
overnight in this fashion which could lead to more dramatic
differences in snow totals. Lastly, compaction of the snowfall
due to its wet, heavy nature may limit snow totals as well. In
short, many factors may result in snow totals and rates varying
substantially which could make travel quickly hazardous this
evening and overnight. As a result, generally expecting 5 to 8
inches in the warned areas with higher localized amounts where
narrow bands set up and along ridgetops.
As Wednesday afternoon approaches, snow will persist but guidance
generally keeps rates lower which will should limit additional
accumulations to some degree and help road conditions improve as the
higher sun angle and relatively warmer temperatures should help melt
off roadways. Winds will increase substantially by afternoon
which could still result in some more reduced visibilities at
times with falling snow but generally expecting rates to
lighten by the afternoon.
* WINDY! late tonight into Wed evening with gusts 35 to 50 mph
Sfc low paired with the southern stream shortwave trough set to
track over southern lake michigan this evening, showing some
retrograding westward as a shortwave in the northern stream digs
into/merges with the southern feature. Deepening sfc low/tightening
sfc pressure gradient develops...with the tighter gradient sitting
across the upper mississippi river valley tonight into Wed evening,
before relaxing later Wed night through Thu. Latest RAP steaks a
southward moving 50+ kt 850 mb jet across the local forecast area by
06z tonight, late tonight, holding into mid evening Wed. RAP
soundings also show unidirectional winds in the vertical, through at
least 850 mb, and good mixing into those stronger low level winds.
Latest HREF probabilities for 40 mph gusts are 70-90% through this
period, with a 30-50% to exceed 50 mph.
With confidence high in wide spread, strong/impactful winds...will
issue a wind advisory for the entire forecast area from late tonight
into Wed evening.
How the wind interacts with the falling and fallen snow is not as
clear. The wet, heavy nature of the snow will generally inhibit
significant blowing/drifting. However, snow sticking to trees,
branches, etc could create a heavy enough load that coupled with the
strong winds could result in downed branches, etc. Perhaps some
power outages. Certainly another potential hazard to be on the look
out for.
* NEW WEEK PCPN CHANCES: Sun/Mon showing the higher chances right
now, mostly rain
Long range guidance in good agreement with rotating an upper level
shortwave trough northeast out of the central plains and across the
upper mississippi river valley Sun into Mon. GEFS/EPS at odds with
how to handle the parent upper level low - some bring it west-east
across the region while others slowly meander it northeast into
Canada. The upshot though is the preponderance of the GEFS/EPS
ensemble members paint light QPF across the region Sunday, lingering
into Monday. Model blend suggests a 40-50% chance for 1/10" liquid
with less than 20% for 1/4". The EC is more bearish on the chances
and up those percentages by 10-20%. Current temperatures would favor
rain, but can`t completely rule out snow mixing in here and there.
EC suggests only a 30% for measurable snow for southeast MN, little
to no threat elsewhere.
GEFS/EPS then show some potential for a southern stream shortwave
trough to slide across southern portions of the region for mid week,
bringing another shot for pcpn - trending just rain.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
Variable conditions across the region with VFR conditions near
and west of KRST and LIFR conditions at KLSE with snow. A storm
system over Michigan will combine with another storm system
pushing through Minnesota over Illinois and Indiana. This will
keep the TAFs under cyclonic flow with snow bands wrapping
around it through the forecast period. IFR/LIFR conditions are
forecast to return/continue at both TAF sites tonight with
periods of light to moderate snow. Conditions may at times
improve to MVFR, however the lower visibilities should last at
KLSE through much of the TAF period. Northwest winds 15kts and
gusty at KRST will strengthen 20-30kts with gusts 32 to 42kts at
both sites and continue through Wednesday.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ017-
029-034-041-054-061.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ042>044-
053-055.
MN...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ096.
IA...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ011-
030.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Naylor/Rieck
AVIATION...Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
858 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Midwest will continue to shift northeast
before occluding tonight over Michigan. An associated warm
front will lift north this afternoon, followed by a cold front
tonight. This low will eventually shift off the East Coast on
Thursday, allowing for a high pressure to build in for the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
900 pm update...
We are cleaning up and taking the severe weather potential out
of the forecast for the rest of the evening. That potential has
drastically decreased over the past couple of hours. We will
likely allow the Flood Watch to expired before 10 pm as well.
700 pm update...
The next several hours is a wait and see kind of game. We are
still under a severe weather threat with the greatest risk area
along and south of Highway 30 this evening. SPC is monitoring
our central Ohio counties for a possible new Tornado Watch. See
the SPC MD #357 for more information.
Previous update...
The 330 PM update simply extends the discussion to include
Wednesday and Wednesday night at the bottom of the current
discussion. No changes were made with the immediate forecast.
Discussion...
Over the last couple hours, there is quite a lot constantly
changing and evolving so opted to completely update the
forecast into Wednesday morning. Looking at the big picture,
there is a surface low centered near the southern tip of Lake
Michigan which is associated with an upper level trough
beginning to push south across the western Great Lakes region.
With the trough continuing at amplify, the surface low is
continuing to deepen, already dropping to 993mb and forecast to
drop to near 985mb. A warm front extends east from this low
across the CWA, currently located near the US30 corridor. This
front is expected to continue to push north, although the exact
extent remains a bit uncertain. Taking an average location
amongst models, it should shift north to at least US-224. Ahead
of this boundary, current temperatures linger in the 40s with
dewpoints in the 40s, but behind it temperatures are climbing
into the low 60s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. The
biggest question is how these surface conditions will evolve in
the next couple hours, especially with ongoing convection across
southwest OH and southern IN.
Digging a bit more into the mesoscale aspect, there is certainly
still a potential for severe weather this afternoon, although
timing of it looks to be a bit later than previously forecast,
possibly closer to 5-10PM now. Overall shear with this event
remains very high with bulk shear values exceeding 70 knots
across Ohio. How much instability will climb this afternoon has
quite a bit of uncertainty, particularly in relation to if the
dewpoints/low level moisture will be able to rebound north of
the ongoing convection south of the area. On water vapor imagery
and looking at surface obs, there does appear to be a small
corridor were higher moisture is advecting north near the I77
corridor, but once the convection moves east, this may be cut
off. The breaks in clouds this afternoon have not been sustained
long enough to substantially destabilize the atmosphere, so it
will be highly dependent on if dewpoints above 60 can push far
enough north. Will know more in the next couple hours as the
upstream convection evolves.
Shifting into the evening, near 00Z, the cold front will begin
to push east and enhance surface lifting along the boundary. At
that point, convection mode will primarily be linear, but that
doesn`t diminish the threat for strong to severe storms. Near
that time, the RAP increases the Supercell composite parameter
to 4 and the latest WoFS run increases STP values near the CWA`s
southwestern border as a LLJ pushes northeast across the area.
This additional enhancement from the front and LLJ may provide
enough surface based lift for storms to pose numerous hazards.
With all that being said, SPC in collaboration with WFO CLE has
kept areas along and south of US30 in an Enhanced Risk (3 out of
5) of severe weather, with strong winds (gusts up to 80 mph),
large hail (up to 1 inch), and tornadoes all possible. North of
that, the area remains in Slight Risk (2 out of 5).
In addition to the severe weather potential, a Flood Watch is in
effect for counties along and south of US30. PWAT values
exceeding 1 inch coupled with very wet antecedent conditions
from last night/this morning`s convection have made the area
prime to flood potential. If there is any silver lining,
hodographs suggest storm motion will be quite quick with limited
risk of training. However, in the strongest storms rainfall
rates may approach 1-2"/hr. Additional impacts to rivers, urban
areas, and low lying areas are expected through this evening. To
account for this, WPC has maintained a Day 1 Slight Risk ERO for
eastern Ohio.
Near midnight tonight, showers will gradually begin to dissipate
from west to east as the cold front moves east. As the low
pressure continues to deepen, upper level support on the eastern
side of the trough will maintain precipitation across eastern
Ohio/Northwest Pennsylvania into Wednesday afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms will remain possible, but the severe threat will
greatly be diminished. Showers will linger through Wednesday
night as the upper level low continues to pivot over the
region. Showers should generally be light, but with colder air
pushes south behind the low, have opted to introduce a rain/snow
mix to the forecast. No accumulation is expected however.
Overnight lows tonight will drop into the upper 30s out west and
into the mid to upper 40s for the eastern counties. High
temperatures tomorrow will be a bit cooler, only climbing into
the mid to upper 40s. Overnight lows on Wednesday night will
definitely be much cooler, dropping into the low to mid 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period will begin with a weakening closed-low across
the Lower Great Lakes, with wrap-around moisture resulting in
periodic rain and snow showers through Thursday. Surface
temperatures will remain fairly marginal, hovering at or above
freezing as the closed-off low should limit any of the colder air
across portions of southern Canada/the Upper Midwest from entering
the region. Could see a brief uptick in rain/snow intensity Thursday
afternoon/evening as a surface trough swings south across the
Eastern Great Lakes. Wouldn`t be surprised to see up to an inch of
wet snow accumulation in any heavier and more persistent bands.
Lingering surface troughing should allow for continued rounds of
rain and snow showers with perhaps some lake-enhancement possible
late Thursday night into early Friday as a colder air mass,
characterized by 850 mb temperatures between -8 and -10 degrees C,
will arrive across the region.
Temperatures will be below average through the short term period
with highs generally in the 40s under persistent cloud cover and
periodic rain and snow showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Exact details for the April 8, 2024 Eclipse remain fairly uncertain,
although confidence is increasing in at least some upper-level cloud
cover arriving into the area late Monday morning into the afternoon.
For this forecast package, maintained about a 60-70% cloud cover in
addition to a low chance (30%) of light rain across the area for
Monday afternoon. Ensemble clusters continue to suggest the
potential for high cloud cover to arrive on Monday, although there
are subtle hints that some mid-level cloud cover may also develop if
rain chances trend higher. The current temperature forecast across
the region on Monday remains largely unchanged with highs reaching
the low to mid-60s.
Otherwise, no impactful weather systems are expected for Saturday,
Sunday, or Tuesday as above-average temperatures in the 60s return
across the region by Sunday and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
We have a variety of conditions ranging from LIFR in TOL
to VFR in CLE and everyone else in between. The general aviation
message going forward will be MVFR to IFR ceilings tonight and
lasting through Wednesday afternoon. Towards the end of the TAF
period, MVFR to maybe VFR ceilings are expected. There is still
a chance for a few strong to severe storms this evening between
00z and 04z for MFD, CLE, CAK, and YNG. Have mentioned VCTS
with TEMPO groups for -TSRA if impacts are expected at specific
TAF site. Scattered -SHRA will linger till about 06z to 09z
overnight mainly over the eastern areas.
South of the warm front, southerly winds 12 to 15 knots with
gusts up to 20 knots are expected this evening. North of the
warm front, easterly winds around 10 knots are expected this
evening. Eventually a cold front will move through overnight
with winds becoming southwesterly 5 to 12 knots after 06z
through the end of the time period.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain/snow showers and low
ceilings Wednesday evening through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions will continue through this evening as east
to northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots persist. Winds will shift
towards the south as a warm front lifts north across the lake
tonight. Southwest winds are then expected to persist across the
lake on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Small Craft conditions may
return again late Thursday as north to northwest winds of 15 to 20
knots arrive behind a trough. Elevated north to northwest flow of 15
to 20 knots and the potential for Small Craft conditions are
expected to persist through Friday night and perhaps into early
Saturday.
Strong to severe storms are possible across the Lake this evening.
Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and the potential for waterspouts
are all possible.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for OHZ027>033-
036>038-047.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Griffin
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Kahn
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1143 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-Additional 1.5-3" of rain will maintain elevated inundation and
river flood risk into Thursday
-Breezy and cooler end to the week with rain and snow showers
ending on Saturday
-Milder Spring weather pattern returns next week with above
average temperatures
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The focus for tonight will be on the approaching low level jet
linked to a deepening upstream trough. As this feature and its
associated plume of anomalous pwats overruns the cool/stable
airmass across Central PA, expect rain to redevelop across the
western counties late this evening and spread into the eastern
counties late at night. Large scale forcing/upper level
divergence ahead of the upper trough, combined with surging
pwats and some elevated instability, should result in convective
elements within the stratiform rain with thunder possible in
some spots.
Ensemble mean qpf of between 0.5 to 1 inch represents the most
likely 12hr rainfall amounts overnight. However, locally higher
amounts are likely with any tsra. Both the 12Z HREF and most
recent HRRR indicate local amounts of 1.5 inches are possible
over the western half of the forecast area tonight. Given the
already wet ground, this could potentially result in minor
flooding issues. The 18Z 3HR FFG numbers range from 1 to 1.5
inches, with the most susceptible area over Clearfield and
Northern Cambria counties.
Although cold air damming will remain in place, a tightening
gradient ahead of the approaching cold/occluded front will
result in increasing east to southeast winds. Latest Bufkit
soundings support gusts to around 35kts by dawn over the NW Mtns
and also over the Western Poconos.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong forcing ahead of the deep/closed H5 trough, combined
with a plume of anomalous pwats surging northward along
eastward advancing cold/occluded front will locally heavy rain
to the area on Wednesday. This area of heavier rain looks to be
focused in the 12-18Z window over south central and southeastern
portions of the area with HREF PMM values suggesting spot
amounts may exceed 1.5 inches. The heavier rain should peel off
to the north and east during the afternoon and evening as
cooler/drier air starts to work into southwest PA between
primary and secondary/triple pt sfc lows (dry slot). Expect
precip to taper to showers Wednesday night in the wake of the
frontal passage.
A very tight pressure gradient is progged around midday
Wednesday across Eastern PA Wed, to the north of a developing
secondary low over Virginia. Latest model soundings support
a likelihood of at least some wgusts in excess of 40kts,
particularly downwind (northeast) of the ridgetops over the
Western Poconos. The combination of wet ground and gusts over
40kts increases the threat of downed trees. Will reassess the
need for a wind advisory with the 00Z guidance.
Colder air filtering into the area Wed night will result in
rain or wet snow ptypes at elevations generally AOA 13-1500ft
with all snow >2000ft. A minor snow accumulation (coating up to
1 inch or so) is possible on the ridgetops and highest terrain
by Thursday morning. Rain and snow (showers) continue Thursday
underneath the closed H5 low with temps bottoming Thu-Fri.
Sfc-700 hPa lapse rates will be impressive beneath the upper
trough Thu afternoon. This should support numerous scattered
diurnal rain/snow showers with graupel and perhaps even a few
lightning strikes. SWO D3 general thunder over western PA
remains supportive of the low topped convection. Unseasonably
cool cyclonic flow on the backside of departing upper low will
maintain rain and snow showers over the Alleghenies with some
showers or flurries spilling toward the lower Susq Valley.
Elevation driven wet snow accums remain possible especially Thu
night into Friday morning.
Max temps trend colder through late week with highs 10 to 20
degree below average by Friday in the mid 30s to upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Near vertically stacked low over Down East Maine Friday night
will keep the CWA under a deep, well-aligned and unseasonably
cold NW flow that will start the weekend with plenty of clouds
with scattered AM snow showers over the N Mtns.
The upper low is progged to lift away from the region the second
half of the weekend, with rising heights resulting in fair and
seasonable conditions Sunday. Upper level ridging over the
region should result in warmer and generally dry weather early
next week. However, can`t rule out a few showers Monday PM or
Tuesday associated with a slow moving warm front over the Ohio
Valley.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions is being observed this evening
across Central Pennsylvania. Low pressure over the Ohio Valley
will continue to bring multiple rounds of rainfall to the area
through the day on Wednesday. All guidance supports ceilings
lowering to IFR/LIFR by 06Z for the entire area. Visibility
restrictions will also be likely, with the greatest reductions
occurring in the heaviest rain.
Ongoing convection across Ohio will approach the area beginning
around 03Z. It will be on a weakening trend, but there should be
enough elevated instability to allow for at least a few
lightning strikes for western sites. There are still some
questions about how far east the threat for lightning will
extend.
A 40 to 50 knot low level jet moving in from the west will lead
to the development of low level wind shear tonight and into the
morning for the western half of the area. Decided to remove LLWS
from the TAFs for eastern sites as model soundings show the
strongest winds remaining above 2000 feet.
Winds will become gusty in the morning and into the afternoon
for sites in the Lower Susquehanna Valley (MDT, LNS) as the
pressure gradient tightens in response to a developing low
pressure system off the east coast. Guidance supports gusts of
30 to 35 knots with sustained winds of 10 to 20 knots.
Outlook...
Wed Night...Lingering showers with restrictions likely.
Thu...Colder air moves in and lingering rain showers will mix
with or change over to snow showers across higher elevations.
Fri-Sat...A few snow showers possible, mostly KJST and KBFD.
Sun...Skies clearing throughout the day.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Previous/ongoing rainfall continues to saturate the ground with
considerable responses already on some small streams and creeks.
With an additional 2-3 inches (locally up to 4) of rain forecast
through Wednesday night, we now expect over a dozen (13) river
points to approach/potentially exceed minor flood stage. Can`t
rule out a moderate flood in some of the favored locations in
the Juniata Basin. Williamsport and Harrisburg are now both
expected to exceed action stage and approach minor flood stage
on Thursday into Friday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
After one of the warmest starts to March on record, temperature
departures were near to below average during the second half of
the month. Here are the March 2024 temperature rankings:
Harrisburg: Avg. temp 46.3F (+4.5F, 12th warmest)
Williamsport: Avg. temp 44.5F (+5.8F, 10th warmest)
Altoona: Avg. temp 44.9F (+6.2F, T4th warmest)
Bradford: Avg. temp 40.2F (+7.2F, 3rd warmest)
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Bauco
HYDROLOGY...Steinbugl
CLIMATE...Steinbugl
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
902 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry, warming trend is expected through the rest of the work
week.
- Powerful weather system on Saturday could bring severe
thunderstorms to our area favoring the eastern zones, but
limited moisture will be a significant limiting factor.
- Much better opportunity for widespread precipitation exists
late in the forecast period as another weather system takes
aim at the central plains.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
No significant changes to the going forecast. Infrared satellite
imagery depicts a patch of midlevel cloud that will be moving
southeast across SW KS the next few hours. Vigorous NWly flow
through the depth of the atmosphere will continue Wednesday, in
response to a powerful 522 dm closed cyclone near Chicago.
Expect NW winds to pick up rapidly after mixing begins around
10 am, with winds of 20-30 mph common. Observed gusts on Tuesday
were near 45 mph; they are expected to be a bit weaker, around
35 mph Wednesday. Models do show a net warming of 2-3C at
850 mb, and warmed forecast temperatures Wednesday afternoon
about 2 degrees, with mid to upper 60s common across central and
western zones. The forecast high at DDC Wednesday is 66, and the
normal high for April 3 is 66. Few if any clouds expected
Wednesday in a strongly subsident regime.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
Recent water vapor satellite loop and RAP upper air analysis
indicate an upper level trough axis extends from the northern
Midwest southward to northern MO, and southwestward from there
through the southern plains and into northern Mexico. At the
surface, a ~993-mb low is centered over north-central IL, with
an expansive pressure field around it reaching all the way
westward to the Rocky Mountains. This is the source of the
strong northerly winds southwest KS is experiencing today, and
these will be maintained despite the surface trough pulling
farther away as an upper level shortwave digs southward on the
western periphery of the parent trough and deepens the surface
low. Resulting cold air advection will act to offset the strong
early-April sun somewhat, supporting afternoon highs only in the
upper 50s/low 60s. Overnight, winds will weaken substantially
with the loss of boundary layer mixing, and combine with clear
skies to allow temperatures to drop into the low/mid 30s.
Daytime Wednesday, upper level ridging will continue to build
over the western CONUS as the typical mid-spring wave train
within the subtropical jet persists. However, northerly winds
will increase once again as southwest KS remains within reach of
surface low`s influence, especially across the eastern zones.
As a result, afternoon highs will range from the upper 60s/low
70s west to the upper 50s/low 60s east.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
Medium range ensembles have changed little compared to this time
yesterday regarding the evolution of the synoptic pattern
through the end of the work week, suggesting the upper level
ridge over the western CONUS at the beginning of the long term
period will slide east with time, and pass overhead on Friday as
another powerful trough moves in behind it. Therefore, expect a
warming trend these days as afternoon highs increase from the
mid 60s east to mid 70s west Thursday to the low/mid 70s east to
upper 70s/low 80s west Friday. On Saturday, the aforementioned
significant, negatively-tilted upper level trough will eject
onto the High Plains. Southwest KS is lucky poor moisture return
is expected ahead of this trough as shown by NBM probability of
SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/Kg of less than 40%, otherwise this wave
would be ideal for high-end severe weather potential. That
said, severe convection across our area cannot be ruled out as a
sharpening dryline placed somewhere around our central CWA
provides the focus for thunderstorm development within a
strongly sheared environment during the afternoon.
Daytime Sunday, as the upper level trough continues to eject
onto the High Plains, the EPS and GEFS both agree southwest KS
will be within the cyclone`s dry slot as probability of QPF of
0.1" is 0% across all zones. However, ensembles suggest this
will not be the case for the next upper level wave that will
reach the central plains near the end of the period. Thanks to
this cyclone`s much farther south track allowing it to tap into
Gulf of Mexico moisture more effectively, ensemble probability
of QPF exceeding 0.1" is in the 60-80% range for all zones.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF period, with limited
amounts of scattered mid/high clouds. Strong north winds gusting
to near 40 kts at 2130z will weaken rapidly by 02z Wed, with
light NW winds prevailing overnight through 15z Wed. After 15z
Wed, strong NW winds will return to all airports, but at speeds
a bit less than those observed Tuesday, with gusts of 30-33 kts.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1100 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow will continue across western Wisconsin into the
evening, with accumulations around an inch or so possible.
- Strong northerly winds expected Wednesday. Wind Advisory
issued across western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota, where
gusts up to 45 mph will be possible.
- Temperatures warm through the end of the week, with highs in
the 50s this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
Early afternoon visible satellite reveals a very active picture
across eastern CONUS. The headline storm system centered across
Illinois is responsible for a multitude of weather concerns,
including a potential severe weather outbreak in the Ohio
Valley/Deep South and several inches of snow from eastern Wisconsin
into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A less notable, but important
secondary feature in the form of an upper-level shortwave tough is
digging into the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. Both of
these features are forecast to phase through tonight, with the
resultant deep ~980s mb low progged to spin over the Great Lakes
through the second half of the work week.
The morning round of light snow that moved through eastern Minnesota
and western Wisconsin can be tied to the headline storm system in
central Illinois. Deformation banding northwest of the low,
supported by a band of 700 mb frontogenesis, worked in tandem to
produce the burst of snow that moved across the area for the morning
commute. The deformation band has since shifted east of the Twin
Cities, though will likely continue to produce light snow in western
Wisconsin through this evening (supported by the northeast track of
the surface low). It still appears that the heaviest snow will fall
across central/eastern Wisconsin, such that our expectations have
not changed all that much. Most of our western Wisconsin
communities will observe an inch or less of snow, however it`s
conceivable that counties on a line from Pepin northeast to Rusk
pick up an additional 1-2" through tonight.
Further west, the approach of the upper-level wave will bring the
reintroduction of PoPs across western Minnesota this afternoon and
evening. As is typical in a cold air advection regime, there will be
a "convective" nature to the precipitation chances. These scattered
showers will likely vary between rain/sleet/snow and could even
include and isolated rumble of thunder, owing to slim CAPE profiles
captured on RAP forecast soundings. Given the presence of low
freezing levels and support for moderate updrafts, it`s also
possible that small hail falls beneath the strongest cores.
Recent satellite imagery has captured an uptick in the Cu field
across NW Minnesota, ahead of the approaching wave. CAM guidance
is in good agreement that the best chance for these convective
showers will be west of the I-35 corridor, beginning in the next
few hours and then winding down before 9/10 PM or so. We do not
expect much in the way of accumulation, should snow be the
p-type within these showers, however brief reductions in
visibility are certainly possible. Lows tonight are projected to
fall only a few degrees below freezing, so a widespread "ice
rink" appears unlikely, however we will watch for some of the
wet roads to become slick heading into the morning commute.
On Wednesday, the forecast theme will switch from precipitation
chances to concerns with strong northerly winds. As mentioned above,
the upper-wave will phase with the surface system to the southeast,
ultimately promoting deeper surface low pressure. A tight pressure
gradient will setup on the northwest region of said system, such
that concerns with the winds fields will arise heading into
tomorrow. Wind gusts will begin to approach advisory criteria across
western Wisconsin after midnight and will spread west into
eastern/southern Minnesota by daybreak. A very windy Wednesday is
expected, as sustained northerly winds will range between 25-30 mph.
Gusts as high as 45 mph will be possible for an extended period.
We`ve collaborated with neighboring offices to issue a Wind Advisory
for western Wisconsin and all of southern Minnesota, including the
Twin Cities metro.
While it will still be breezy Thursday morning, significant
improvements in the forecast are on tap for the end of the work
week. High pressure will signal more pleasant weather by Thursday
afternoon, with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Temperatures
will warm into the low 50s Friday and then climb further into the
mid to upper 50s on Saturday. A weather system will bring the return
of rain chances for Sunday and Monday (perhaps not great news for
those hoping to observe the partial eclipse from the Upper Midwest).
Trends continue to climb well above average in the extended period,
with highs in the low 60s by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
Steady snow with MVFR/IFR conditions will continue tonight
across western Wisconsin and impact KEAU. Farther east, light
snow will affect KMSP and KRNH along with MVFR clouds, but
visbys should remain VFR and most of the snow will melt on
contact. Farther west, skies will be more scattered, with
higher ceilings, so should have generally VFR conditions at
KSTC, KAXN, KRWF, and KMKT. Looking ahead, northerly winds will
increase overnight with gusts near 35 kts on Wednesday.
KMSP...The snow has arrived at KMSP, and it will continue for a
few hours overnight. Expect visbys to remain above 3 miles, and
snowfall rates will be light enough that it will melt on contact
so no accumulation is expected. Winds will be out of the north
with gusts of 35 to 40 kts possible Wednesday afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind N 10-15kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind E 10kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for Anoka-Blue
Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-
Goodhue-Hennepin-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-
Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-
Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for Barron-
Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Rusk-St. Croix.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...JRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
927 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong spring storm system runs through Wednesday night.
Combination of strong winds and heavy wet snow will lead to
power outages and tree damage, potentially widespread.
- Marquette and Baraga counties upgraded to Blizzard Warnings
for tonight and Wednesday. Winter Storm Warnings elsewhere.
Travel will be difficult to impossible across much of the
warned areas, and should be restricted to emergencies only.
- Widespread 20 to 25 mph winds with gusts up to 35 to 45 mph
expected across Upper Michigan. Gusts as high as 50 to 55 mph
possible along Lake Superior, in the Keweenaw and along the
Bay of Green Bay. This will result in power outages, downed
trees, and drifting snow.
- Widespread 4-12 inches expected, least in the east. Snow
amounts in excess of 1-2 feet expected across the high
terrain of Marquette and Baraga Counties into Thursday
morning.
- Temperatures will trend to above normal by next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a sharply digging northern
stream wave dropping thru MN into IA in the process of phasing with
a very well-defined southern stream wave that has lifted over
southern Lwr MI in response to the northern stream wave. Satellite
presentation on WV and IR imagery is outstanding. At the sfc, low
pres is centered over Lake MI to the se of Sheboygan. Strong forcing
is supporting mdt/hvy pcpn to the nw and n of the low. This mdt/hvy
pcpn has been slowly advancing northward this evening with leading
edge -ra or a mix of -ra/-sn before changing to all snow. Some
lightning has recently occurred over the Garden Peninsula with 4 cg
strikes detected. Out over the western fcst area, -sn has been
occurring more in response to the northern stream wave. Power
outages have already occurred across s central into eastern Upper MI
due simply to gusty winds and also gusty winds/snow accumulations.
Outages will no doubt increase in coverage as hvy/wet snow spreads
across the area during the night. Recent report from near Daggett
indicated 4.3 inches of hvy/wet snow so far with power out. Observer
could hear trees popping, and 2 trees in the yard have broken.
Fcst appears to be in good shape, and updates so far this evening
have been to better capture the advancing main pcpn shield. Mdt/hvy
snow will continue to spread n and w overnight, and will set the
stage for several hrs of very hvy snow across the higher terrain of
n central Upper MI under strongly upsloping low-level ne flow. Tree
damage/power outages will increase in coverage as hvy/wet snow
spreads across the area during the night, and there are definite
concerns that outages could become widespread across the s central
and eastern fcst area where snow is definitely wet and sticking to
everything. If the snow in n central Upper MI ends up wet enough to
stick significantly on trees and powerlines, that will diminish the
blizzard aspect to this storm somewhat, but power outages and
tree damage could become very significant given the expected
snow accumulations. In addition, the wet/sloppy snow will make
travel very difficult, becoming impossible where plowing does
not occur. Travel should be avoided tonight/Wed morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024
Powerful late season storm to impact Upper Michigan beginning
tonight...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough extending from
central Canada into the northern Plains/Midwest. A strong southern
stream shortwave is noted lifting ne through northern IL through the
base of this trough while northern stream shortwave is digging south
through northern MN. Models indicate the shortwave energy from these
jet stream branches are forecast to phase later this evening
resulting in a rapid deepening of the associated sfc low now 992 mb
over northern IL to 981-983 mb over central Lake Mi later this
evening. The combination of strengthening mid-level fgen, strong
deep layer Q-vector convergence, strong 290k sfc isentropic ascent
and mixing ratios of 3-4 g/kg will bring a widespread 3-8 inches of
snow into tonight across the U.P. with the highest amounts of
nearly a foot over the higher terrain of western Marquette and
Baraga counties where best forcing, terrain and lake enhancement
could occur in a N-NE flow off Lake Superior. Precip will start
out as rain or a rain/snow mix east and south central before
changing over to mostly snow later this evening. The potential
for heavy snow combined with blowing snow from north-northeast
winds gusting to 35-45 mph has prompted the issuance of a
Blizzard Warning for Marquette and Baraga counties for tonight
into Wednesday. Winter Storm Warnings will continue for the rest
of west and central Upper Michigan tonight into Wednesday or
Wednesday evening. Travel will become difficult to nearly
impossible, especially over north central portions of the U.P.
later tonight. The combination of wet snow and strong winds will
also have the potential to cause tree damage and power outages.
The lesser amounts of snow (1-4 inches) should occur over the
western U.P tonight, away from the better forcing from the
system. Min temps tonight will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024
Main item of interest in the extended period is the continuation of
hazardous winter weather across the forecast area. Models all
suggest that a very impactful system will lift into the region later
today, persisting into Wednesday and Thursday night. With the
NAM/NAMnest coming around to this idea with yesterday`s late runs,
confidence is very high (>90%) that the combination of heavy wet
snow and strong winds will result in dangerous or even impossible
travel conditions at times.
By Wednesday morning, ensemble systems and deterministic guidance
suggest the surface low will be somewhere between Ludington/Grand
Haven/Milwaukee/Manitowc. Regardless of where in this box, models
place the surface low, each solution suggests strong northeast flow,
strong fgen and strong dynamic forces, orographic enhancement,
minor lake enhancement, and ample moisture will maintain moderate to
heavy precip across the forecast area. The overall precip trend will
be for widespread precip to continue through the day Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Conditions overnight Wednesday should begin
improving across the South Central late Wednesday night. All areas
should trend toward dry Thursday, with the last hold outs being the
elevated locations near Lake Superior of Marquette and Baraga
counties likely late in the day. Model soundings show ptype for
most, if not all, locations in the forecast area will start off as
snow in the morning. Soon after sunrise though, I`d expect enough
warming to begin taking place for precip to begin transitioning over
to rain across the east and south. Any precip in these spots
Wednesday evening and overnight should again to fall as additional
snow.
The EPS and GEFS all suggest 80% or higher chances for the central
portions of Upper Michigan to exceed an inch of QPF; this, while the
same guidance suggests 50% or higher across the east and west.
Deterministic solutions paint most of the region with 1-2 inches of
QPF and the high terrain of Marquette and Baraga counties with 2-3
inches. Given Lake Superior is ice free and the airmass is only
marginally cold, all snow will be heavy and wet. The same models all
suggest this will yield snow amounts of 1 to 2 feet across the area.
However, this assumes a 10:1 snow ratio. When considering daytime
heating, an ice free Lake Superior, and terrain enhancement, snow
ratios should vary greatly across the region. With this in mind,
reduced snow ratios in this forecast package based on daytime
heating and proximity to the lakeshores to around 3-8ish:1 during
the day Wednesday but maintained the 10-14ish:1 elsewhere. This
should yield an additional 1-5 inches for these areas. Across the
north-central though, the upslope enhancement should continue to
maintain heavy snowfall and the 1 to 2 feet, or more of additional
snow are still expected. While this is lower in some areas for the
event then previous forecasts, it does not reduce the impact, as the
snow will still be heavy, wet, and combined with strong winds.
Strong pressure gradient forces are also expected with this system,
which yields a high likelihood (>75%) for winds to exceed 35 mph
across most of the forecast area Wednesday. Higher winds, of 40-50
mph should be expected in the Keweenaw and near Lake Superior. Winds
should gradually weaken across the interior east in the afternoon
and then Wednesday night into Thursday region-wide. These strong
winds, coupled with the moderate to heavy snow, will yield dangerous
to impossible travel conditions. Power outages, tree damage, and
snow drifting will be possible. Because Marquette and Baraga
counties will see the heaviest snow and these strong winds, opted we
opted to upgrade the Winter Storm Warning to a Blizzard Warning from
8pm tonight through 8pm Wednesday. Its possible this may need to be
extended, but we`ll monitor model and event trends tonight and
tomorrow and make that determination.
Through the day Thursday, the mid-upper level low over the Ohio
Valley will gradually shift east as the surface low over lake
Michigan weakens and moves southeast. Further downstream, these
features will reinforce a developing nor`easter near Long Island. By
Thursday evening/night, a shortwave embedded within this cyclonic
flow looks to rotate out of Ontario into the Upper Great Lakes. I
don`t think this will support any re-invigoration of the dwindling
snow given the dry air and surface high that will be building in at
the same time. From there, the pattern will support a mostly dry
Friday and weekend with temps warming a little more each day. By
Sunday, most of the region is expected to be in the 40s or 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 749 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024
Deepening low pres over southern Lake MI will lift to central Lake
MI tonight, then slowly weaken as it drifts sw, then to the e on
Wed. Associated shield of snow will spread across Upper MI tonight
with heaviest snow occurring over n central Upper MI. Strong/gusty
nne winds upwards of 35-40kt will develop at all terminals,
beginning tonight at SAW/CMX and Wed morning at IWD. Initial snow
affecting IWD should diminish for a time tonight, resulting in
IFR/LIFR improving to MVFR. Snow will increase again on Wed,
dropping conditions back thru IFR to LIFR. At CMX, snow may not
really pick up until Wed morning. Expect VFR to fall to MVFR
tonight, then to LIFR on Wed. At SAW, expect conditions dropping
thru MVFR to IFR and LIFR by late evening. For much of the overnight
thru at least early aftn on Wed, SAW will likely be blo airfield
landing mins due to mdt/hvy sn and blsn. Limited improvement to
airfield landing mins expected late Wed aftn.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024
Tonight, winds will increase as a strong spring storm moves into the
region. This storm will linger in the Great Lakes through early
Thursday, resulting in a longer duration Storm Force and Gale Force
wind event. This, coupled with the heavy snow, will result in
visibility near zero across most of the central and eastern portions
of the lake. The strongest winds near or of Storm Force are expected
by early Wednesday morning and through the day, followed by gales
into Thursday morning. Winds will primarily be out of the northeast
and north, so the largest waves (upwards of 18 feet significant
waves) are expected along the southern lakeshores of Lake Superior
from the Apostles eastward, save for shelter provided in Keweenaw
Bay.
Winds should fall below gales Thursday morning, dropping further
below 20 kts by Friday morning. These light winds look to persist
through the weekend.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Storm Warning from 2 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday
for MIZ001-003.
Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT
/7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for MIZ001>003-005-006-009.
Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for
MIZ002-009-010-084.
Blizzard Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ004-005.
Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ006.
Winter Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ007-013-
014-085.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for MIZ011-012.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for LSZ162.
Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for
LSZ240>251-263>267.
Lake Michigan...
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Rolfson
SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
849 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
Tornado Watch will expire at top of hour. Regional radar imagery
showing line of convection pushing eastward, but with environment
along and ahead of it worked over and 03/00Z KOHX Sounding derived
indicies showing very marginal low to mid level lapse rates, which
has been one of the main players in putting a "Nail in The
Coffin" for robust strong to severe thunderstorm development
across our area as these early evening hours have progressed, not
expecting any more organized severe potential tonight. As Tornado
Watch expires at top of the hour, will updated gridded forecast
shortly afterwards and will do a more thorough examination of
forecasted weather conditions through remainder of tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1104 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
A dangerous setup is in place this morning for severe weather late
this morning through the evening hours. A wave of showers and storms
developed over eastern AR/western TN and has lifted northeast into
the western part of our CWA. The atmosphere ahead of that wave is
characterized by 500-1000 J/kg of mlCAPE. According to SPC
Mesoanalysis West Tennessee and the northwestern third of Middle
Tennessee are uncapped. So far, small hail and some strong winds
have been reported in West Tennessee. Closer to Nashville, the 12z
OHX raob and BNA ACARS soundings show a cap in place just above 700
mb. ACARS around 15z show that the cap has eroded away.
Additional storms are expected to develop just west of the area
early this afternoon as the leading edge of large scale ascent noses
closer to the area. The environment ahead of that second wave will
be dependent on this morning`s round. Ample shear will be in place
regardless, but the amount of recovery for instability is in
question over the northwestern part of the area. Further south and
east, the environment will be less questionable with mlCAPE
values between 1000-1500 J/kg. Storm modes could be a mix between
supercells and line segments. The more recent runs of the HRRR
have been holding onto the morning round a little longer which in
turn has made the afternoon round more linear in nature and less
cellular. This scenario would favor damaging winds and embedded
rotations instead of a scenario where we have discrete cells that
would favor potentially long track tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds. The severe threat will come to a close on the
plateau by 7 to 9pm. Some additional showers may continue through
the rest of the evening hours before coming to an end.
A trough ejecting out of Manitoba will phase with the southern
stream energy from today`s event developing into a large upper low
centered near Chicago Wednesday morning. A lobe of energy will
rotate around the base of the upper low on Wednesday sparking
showers over our area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1104 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
The upper level low will wobble eastward on Thursday with another
lobe of energy rounding the base of the trough leading to more
shower chances along the northern plateau For the rest of the area,
conditions will be cool and breezy once again. Temperatures Friday
morning will drop into the low to mid 30s but widespread frost is
not likely due to surface winds remaining 5-10 mph. By Friday, the
upper low will be centered over New England with northwest flow over
Middle Tennessee leading to another cool and breezy day, but it
should be dry. Temperatures Friday night will drop into the upper
20s to mid 30s. Winds will be a little lighter Saturday morning
leading to more widespread frost compared to the previous night.
Upper level ridging will start to build into the area late on
Saturday allowing temperatures to begin to rebound. By Sunday
afternoon temperatures will be back in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A
trough looks like it will move through the central plains late in
the weekend which may bring some rain chances to our area late
Sunday or on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024
03/00Z TAFs focused primarily thru 03/06Z per potential
significant convective aviation impacts. Several admendments
probable per forecasted weather element fluctuations thru 03/06Z.
Current regional radar trends, addressed 1hr TEMPO groups,
BNA/MQY, & 2 hr TEMPO groups, SRB/CSV, for best convection time
window impacts with initial VFR ceilings/vsbys lowering to
MVFR/VFR ceilings/vsbys with sfc gust 40-50kts. Sfc backing winds
thru 03/06Z. Sustained sfc winds 10-20kts. VCSH thru 03/24Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 46 58 40 54 / 80 60 40 20
Clarksville 43 55 39 52 / 50 70 40 20
Crossville 40 52 34 45 / 100 60 50 50
Columbia 43 57 39 53 / 80 40 20 10
Cookeville 42 54 37 47 / 100 70 50 50
Jamestown 40 53 34 45 / 100 80 60 60
Lawrenceburg 44 57 40 53 / 90 40 20 10
Murfreesboro 43 57 38 53 / 90 60 40 20
Waverly 42 55 38 52 / 50 60 30 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....JB Wright