Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/29/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1050 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Freezing rain is expected across parts of southwest and
central North Dakota tonight through Friday morning, with ice
accumulations up to one tenth of an inch.
- Snow, heavy at times, is expected along and north of Highway 2
early Friday morning through Friday afternoon, with
accumulations around 2 to 4 inches and locally higher amounts
up to 6 inches.
- Periodic low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for light
snow across southern North Dakota this weekend into early next
week, with minor accumulations possible.
- Next week will see the start of another warming and mainly dry trend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
The near term forecast has been updated to account for the
latest observed and modeled trends. 00Z guidance seems to be
favoring a quicker progression of the system overall, and a
slight southward shift in the transition from freezing rain to
snow as predominant types, though all types remain possible
across the west, central, and south through the night. Radar
returns are increasing over southwest North Dakota, and unknown
precipitation is now being reported at Hettinger (with a surface
temperature of 36).
.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
We have elected to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for much of
central and parts of western North Dakota for tonight and
tomorrow. The southern segment, which encompasses the southern
two thirds of the advisory, is in effect from 10 PM CDT tonight
until 1 PM CDT Friday. The primary concern in this segment is
ice accumulation. While recent guidance shows the freezing rain
may not last more than a few hours at any given location,
precipitation rates could approach one tenth of an inch per
hour. Northern and eastern portions of this segment, such as
Wells County, may see more of a freezing rain/snow mix at
similar precipitation rates. The northern segment, which
includes counties along and north of Highway 2 (except Divide
and Williams) is in effect from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday. The
main concern for this segment is the potential for heavy snow,
with rates possibly exceeding one inch per hour. While some
recent HRRR runs have backed off on maximum QPF/snow amounts,
the requisite ingredients for banded/convective snowfall remain
present in model data. Even if less snow falls than expected
for the whole event, the highest snow rates are favored to occur
during peak morning travel along routes such as Highway 83
north of Garrison, Highway 2 from Stanley to Rugby, Highway 52
from the Canadian border to Harvey, and the city of Minot.
.UPDATE...
Issued at 716 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
We continue to evaluate the potential for impactful winter weather
later tonight through the day tomorrow. The main concern for tonight
is light freezing rain across parts of southwest and south central
North Dakota, while the main concern for Friday is periods of heavy
snow mainly focused over north central parts of the state where
deterministic model parameters and ensemble tools show potential
for mesoscale banding with conditional slantwise and/or upright
instability. No significant changes to the forecast or messaging
have been made with this update.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
A clipper system currently in the Northern Rockies will increase
clouds and southeasterly winds through the evening. Late this
evening, this clipper will enter into the area starting chances
for rain and freezing rain initially across the southwest,
spreading across much of the CWA through the night. A wintry mix
of snow and freezing rain will be possible south of Highway 2
through tonight, while areas along and north of Highway 2 are
expected to remain mainly snow. The highest confidence areas
right now for freezing rain look to be near and south of
Interstate 94. This clipper continues to push eastward Friday
morning, lingering snow in the north and a wintry mix that
attempts to change over to all snow elsewhere. Some higher res
models showing some frontal genesis in the north could provide
for some higher snowfall rates Friday morning. This combined
with the lack of freezing rain expected in these areas have
increased snow totals across the north. Meanwhile, this slightly
northern shift in QPF have lowered ice accumulations, although
the confidence in freezing rain in some of these southern areas
has increased given forecast soundings. Snow accumulations by
the time precipitation is done now look to be 1 to 4 inches
north, with some areas getting near 5 inches. Ice accumulations
look to remain less than a tenth of an inch overall. So overall
the confidence in a winter highlight is not quite there, and
will maintain the SPS for the time being. As precipitation ends
Friday afternoon and evening there could be some pockets of
freezing drizzle or mist. Confidence was not high enough to
include this in the forecast at this time, although is worth
monitoring as abundant low level moisture will linger while the
mid levels dry out. Low temperatures tonight under cloud cover
will be in the 20s, while highs tomorrow look to generally be in
the 30s. Friday night could see some lingering clouds with lows
in the teens.
This weekend, there still looks to be a surface low lee of the
Rockies try to set up somewhere in the Colorado area. Meanwhile
a surface high pushes southward out of Canada. Where these two
meet will likely set up snow or perhaps rain along a frontal
boundary until a larger trough can kick the surface low out into
the plains. Models still tend to favor the higher amounts of QPF
with the feature to be south of North Dakota, and more so in
South Dakota or perhaps even further south. That being said, NBM
still putting in 20 to 40% pops in southern ND for different
periods each day Saturday through Monday. This would likely be
all snow if any precipitation does fall. Currently this is about
a 10 to 30% of at least 2 inches of snow along and south of
Interstate 94 at any 48 hour time period this weekend into next
week. So although confidence is increase to only minor impacts
from this system, it will still be worth watching for any shifts
in track. Highs will generally be in the 30s this weekend, with
lows in the 20s. Monday may be slightly warmer yet similar.
Clusters continue to show a broad ridge setting up next week
bringing warmer temperatures and mainly dry conditions. NBM
spreads are starting to come together, with a difference more
coming mid next week when some clusters try to flatten the
ridge. Overall this pattern could return temperatures to more
normal like readings, and perhaps slightly above.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 716 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
All terminals begin the 00Z TAF cycle with VFR ceilings. A low
pressure system will bring mixed precipitation into the region later
this evening, ending from southwest to northeast on Friday.
Precipitation will likely remain mostly snow across northern North
Dakota, with periods of heavy snow at KMOT reducing visibility to
LIFR levels. For southern North Dakota, precipitation will initially
fall as light freezing rain overnight before mixing with or changing
to snow Friday morning. Outside of KMOT/north central North Dakota,
confidence in significant visibility restrictions is low. But
MVFR/IFR ceilings are also expected to spread across the state from
west to east later tonight into Friday. Southeast winds will remain
breezy through the night. On Friday, a transition to lighter and
variable winds followed by increasing northwest winds is forecast to
occur from west to east.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for
NDZ002>005-010>013.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Friday for
NDZ018>023-033>036-041-042-045-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1018 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 30% chance for minor impacts Friday into Friday night due to
snow and mixed precipitation.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Incoming 00z model data and current radar/obs still would keep a
more cautious approach in regards to wintry impacts for E ND
into NW MN Friday. HRRR, NAM and HREF all keep a bit heavier
snow from Montana into SE Sask and NW ND overnight with that
second area of precip forming in NW SD into SW/central ND
overnight. Hard to gauge the precip in NW SD attm as it is in
between radars and also in area of limited weather obs. HRRR
ptype progs indicate any freezing rain risk is primarily limited
to south central ND with a smaller risk 12z-15z farther
northeast into parts of E ND. Advisories may be needed for some
areas Friday but right now confidence is not there yet to issue.
Plus forecast road temps are in the upper 30s to mid 40s Friday
aftn and based on that road impacts will be limited.
.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Cirrus graduallly moving into E ND early this evening as
anticipated. A quiet evenig weather wise with light winds as
high pressure ridge is moving into western MN. Will monitor 00z
model data and trends in Montana for preciptation but not seeing
anything that would cause me to alter going fcst. Precip area in
Montana near Glasgow, Malta is mostly rain and is moving
northeast but will transition to snow as it does enter SE
Sask/NW ND overnight. Meanwhile, HRRR develops second area of
precip in SE Montana and move into SW ND overnight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Upper level ridge continues to propagate eastward along with a
surface high. This has helped create sunny skies across the northern
plains. Current satellite shows the vast area of sunshine in eastern
North Dakota and snow cover just east of the Red River Valley within
the trees. Upstream high level clouds are moving into western North
Dakota as our next system approaches the region for Friday.
Upper level ridging turns zonal early this weekend, with a quick
moving short wave propagating along the International Border. A warm
front propagating ahead of the synoptic forcing shifts west to east
Friday into Saturday morning bringing chances for snow and mixed
precipitation. Post weekend, flow turns split, with northwesterly in
the northern United States and southwesterly flow in the central
United States. One system propagates along the International Border
Sunday into Tuesday, with another shifting out of the four corners
into the upper Midwest. An upper level ridge then develops out in
the Pacific northwest early to mid next week.
Plentiful sunshine today, with limited snow cover in eastern North
Dakota has allowed temperatures to quickly warm into the mid to
upper 30s. Areas east of the valley have remained in the lower 30s
thanks to the snowpack lingering from the past system. Quiet weather
turns to precipitation chances Friday as a short wave moves along
the International Border. A warm front shifts eastward across the
state ahead of the system bringing warm air advection into the
region. Precipitation chances increase ahead of the front, with a
warm nose noted in the southern Red River Valley early Friday
morning. This brings a 20% chance for freezing rain during the early
morning hours on Friday for the southern Red River Valley.
Meanwhile, snow overspreads the Devils Lake Basin and propagates
eastward along the Highway 2 corridor. Snow will be organized along
the front, with 30-40% chance for high intense snowfall rates of up
to an inch per hour. Winds remain around 5-10kts, with snowfall
rates being the main driver for any reduction to visibility.
Frontogentic forcing is progressive and perpendicular to the Highway
2 corridor which decreases the residence time. This helps cut down
snowfall totals and locations seeing longer duration reductions to
visibility. Snow shifts eastward through the day on Friday, with it
exiting north central Minnesota by the overnight hours on Friday.
Probabilities of seeing 2 inches or higher are 40% along the Highway
2 corridor points north.
As the front propagates eastward drier air filters into the mid to
upper levels, with lingering low level saturation. Lingering
synoptic forcing behind the front combined with low level
saturation, and lack of ice aloft brings the chance for freezing
drizzle post front. Chances start in the afternoon for the Devils
Lake Basin and reach the Red River Valley by the evening hours.
Chances linger for areas east of the valley for the late evening to
early overnight hours before drier air starts to reach the lower
levels. Probabilities of seeing freezing drizzle are 20% across the
forecast area (especially along the highway 2 corridor) Friday
afternoon in the Devils Lake Basin and the evening hours for the Red
River Valley. Confidence is low in FZDZ as it hinges on the lift,
amount of drier air that filters into the mid to upper levels, and
how long the low level saturation lingers.
An SPS was issued for this potential along with the snow potentially
impacting the Friday commutes. Probabilities of seeing minor impacts
to travel are 30% due to the sun angle and warmer temperatures
helping to keep ground surfaces warm during the late morning through
evening hours limiting ice and snow accumulations until ground
temperatures drop below freezing. Impacts to travel will be possible
Friday night into Saturday as temperatures in the air and on the
ground reach below freezing helping to refreeze surfaces. This could
create slick travel conditions during the overnight hours on Friday
and into Saturday morning.
Quiet conditions move in for Saturday and Sunday before another
system works its way along the International Border and another
system moves through the central plains. At this time, precipitation
chances are on the lower side (20%). Temperatures will start to
increase through the early and mid portions of next week as a ridge
begins to build out west.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR thru tonight, with precipitation area arriving Friday
morning into Devils Lake region, in the form of snow, with snow
band moving east thru most of the area into the afternoon
Friday. SE winds increasing to 10-20 kts out ahead of this
system Friday.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...Riddle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
949 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions
generally south of a line from Flagler, Colorado to Leoti,
Kansas Sunday afternoon.
- 20%-50% chances for rain showers Sunday night and Monday with
a return to below normal temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 751 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Overall forecast remains on track with very little changes
made. The "main" change that was made was to expand pops for
tomorrow afternoon/evening a little further south and east.
Nearly all guidance shows a 700mb wave associated with a vort
max moving off of the Front Range. This looks to interact with a
stationary wind shift line which should support at least slight
chance (15-20%) of showers. The potential would be a little
higher has the majority of CAMS support this; although deep
inverted v soundings and dew points in the 20s bring the
concern that this may just be virga. A nebulous amount CAPE is
present (25-50 j/kg) which may support a rogue lighting strike,
but confidence isn`t at 15% to introduce thunder into the
forecast. Am noticing that the RAP has the surface vort max
interacting with the boundary along with 0-3km CAPE of around
40-50 j/kg which may be supportive of a landspout potential
across western Kit Carson or Yuma county; although confidence at
this time is very low due to timing concerns with the vort max
as it may not even make it to the CWA till after 00Z and may be
become more of a nowcasting situation tomorrow should this
scenario develop.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly to
mostly sunny mix as the area continues to see a veil of mid and high
clouds move through. With low pressure to our west, temperatures are
ranging in the 60s for most locales as of 200 PM MDT. Winds are
southerly with gusts 20-30 mph at times.
For the rest of the day today and the remainder of the short term
period, the main wx concerns will focus on fire wx potential, and a
low chance for showers.
For the remainder of the afternoon, with the steady southerly
gradient ahead of an elongated trough/low to our west, the airmass
has dried out greatly and RH readings are in the teens for many
especially along and west of Highway 27 where low and mid teens
prevail. There have been no persistent gusts in these areas, which
has kept Red Flag conditions in check despite a few fires cropping
up on the outskirts of the CWA. With a few more hours until sunset,
do not see conditions to be met over a wide enough region to warrant
a late red flag product.
For tonight, the aforementioned low/trough will slowly trek eastward
into the CWA, allowing for a wind shift to the north-northwest. This
low will ease into the area through the day Friday and the boundary
that sets up along the southern tier zones is going to give a wide
range in temps due to the decent CAA northerly flow through the day.
Guidance shows the upper ridge currently over the Plains region
shifting east allowing for a shortwave to traverse northwest zones
overnight Friday night. There is a 15-20% chance for a few showers
to clip northern Yuma county, but mixed guidance on the track may
cut this back further.
Going into the upcoming weekend, high pressure building south as the
Friday`s low/front exits the area, will slide southeast of the CWA
Saturday and eventually east of the region Sunday. Another low does
set up over eastern colorado this weekend and eventually
south/southwest of the area by Sunday.
Overall, this will bring an increase in temperatures, peaking on
Sunday as well as drying conditions. There will be a cutoff upper
low over the Rockies bringing a chance for showers(20-50%)
Sunday night, mainly along/north of Hwy 36. Depending on the
placement of the low on Sunday, fire wx conditions could shift
from previous forecast. Currently RH values will reach criteria
but winds still lack product support issuance.
For temps, looking for daytime highs on Friday to range widely with
upper 50s to mid 60s mainly north of the Interstate, and areas south
of I-70, mid 60s to lower 70s. Going into the upcoming weekend,
lower to mid 60s along/east of Highway 25, and to the west, mid 60s
to around 70F for Saturday. On Sunday, another wide range with areas
north of the Interstate mid 60s to around 70F. South of I-70, 70s
are expected with warmest locales south of Highway 40 down into
Greeley and Wichita counties. Overnight lows will range in the 30s
each night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
As we begin the start of a new work week, be prepared for some wet
conditions across the Tri-State areas as an area of low pressure
moves east across Kansas on Monday. As the surface low moves east,
the wrap around moisture will move over the forecast area bringing
rain chances up to 35% through the afternoon before tapering off
Monday evening. There is still disagreement on the timing of the
system between the GFS and ECMWF, with the GFS moving the slowest.
This keeps the forecast on the lower side of the confidence
spectrum. So far, the area is expected to see mainly rain with a few
slight chances (low confidence) for thunderstorms in the southeast
corner of the area similar to a few days ago. Monday evening we
could see a transition to a rain/snow mix for a large portion of the
area as temperatures approach freezing. Stay tuned for more details
as CAM guidance begins to cover the system and provide more insight.
Highs on Monday are forecast to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s
with overnight lows in the 20s to around 30 degrees.
The upper trough axis is expected to be pushed south-southeast
overnight Monday into Tuesday by a area of high pressure off the SW
California coast. The ridge is expected to continue moving east over
the Plains through the middle of the week, keeping the Tri-State
area dry. A lee surface trough may develop along the Front Range on
Thursday possibly creating some elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions over the Colorado Plains. Temperatures will be on
a warming trend next week with highs in the mid to upper 50s on
Tuesday, the upper 60s to lower 70s Wednesday, and into the upper
60s to mid 70s Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s Tuesday
and Wednesday nights. Thursday night we are currently expecting
overnight lows to be in the 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 946 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions remain forecasted across the area. Some upper
level moisture in the wake of a passing surface low looks to
bring SCT to BKN cloud cover across the region but is forecasted
to remain above 070. The mentioned passing surface low is
bringing some LLWS to each site; LLWS is forecasted to end at
KGLD around 09Z but may hang around KMCK through 14Z or so.
Winds will become northerly in the wake of this low with a
period of gusty winds around 25 knots at KMCK mid morning.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
831 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sunshine, a Bit Warmer, and Not as Windy Friday
- Showers and Possible Storms late Friday Night/early Saturday
- Slight Chance Precipitation Sunday, Better Chance Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
- Sunshine, a Bit Warmer, and Not as Windy Friday
The upper trough which has brought the recent bout of chilly and
breezy weather finally lifts out of the GrtLks Rgn on Friday and
is replaced by shortwave ridging in it`s wake. At the sfc there is
a ridge building in as well which finally brings lighter winds
plus a continuation of sunshine. After a cold night tonight with
lows in the 20s, Highs Friday rebounding to 50-55 but still
rather chilly lakeside.
- Showers and Possible Storms late Friday Night/early Saturday
Active pattern, although fairly familiar/typical for springtime in
srn MI, sets up on Friday night. We have a warm front and 50 kt
low level jet lifting north in our direction with a fast zonal
flow aloft and even some semblance of a coupled upper jet
structure at 12Z Saturday. Models differ on position of the low
level jet and northward extent of the better MUCape/elevated
convection overnight, but the tail end of the HREF guidance does
snow a decent coverage of rain south of I-96 and even the
possibility of localized 1+" of QPF near I-94 per the LPMM QPF
prog. Steeper mid level lapse rates (7.8 C/KM 700-500 mb on the
NAM) could support some small hail as well.
The other noteworthy item is that areas north of about a Big
Rapids to Alma line (interior central lower MI) may be cold enough
to support a period of freezing rain late Friday night into early
Saturday... should the precip make it that far north.
The potential round of nocturnal/elevated convection could linger
into Saturday morning (especially south), otherwise mainly
lighter showers and clouds expected Saturday. Even if the sfc warm
warm manages to bulge briefly north in the srn CWFA, it should
slip south of MI again in the afternoon. Highs ranging from the
40s north to the 50s south.
- Slight Chance Precipitation Sunday, Better Chance next week
The long term period begins with a shallow upper level trough
with primarily zonal flow over the region as any precipitation
exit the region late Saturday into Sunday. The Zonal flow with
very weak high pressure will continue over the region through
Sunday into Monday. There is some ribbons of mid level moisture
that will move into the area Sunday. This should cause cloudiness
and perhaps some light rainshowers. The best moisture pool remains
through southern Michigan, mainly along and south of the I 94
corridor.
The zonal pattern will be displaced Monday into Tuesday by a deep
low pressure system that at this time is fairly barotropic with
deep moisture throughout the system. There seems to be some strong
warm air advection into the region Monday into Tuesday NAEFS
PWATS current are between 0.75 to 1 inch with +1 standard
deviation anomaly. Lower Michigan seems to be primarily entrenched
in the warm sector so Maximum temperatures could be in the 50s
through the first half of next week. The mid to long range moves
are in fair agreement of the upper level pattern, though there is
some disparity on the position of the sfc low. So a decent chance
for rain showers should come around Tuesday. Along with this
system is the potential for gusty winds. It`s a tad early but
latest ensembles show anomalous mid to upper level winds. There
currently looks to be some better directional shear which could
limit sfc winds so it is lower confidence but it is something to
watch.
As the upper level low exits the region and moves into the mid
Atlantic, cold air on the back side of the low should bring a
chance for a rain/snow mix mid week. Temperatures are fairly
marginal and it is far out so confidence is a specific precip type
is low. High pressure should then dominate late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 831 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
High confidence in VFR through Saturday evening given the dry air
and high pressure in place. Winds overnight will be light and
variable between southwest and northwest. HRRR suggests a small
chance of a few clouds around 3,000 feet for a few hours after
daybreak.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Small Craft Advisory ending early this evening as westerly winds
quickly subside, followed by light winds/waves on Friday as
surface ridging moves in. Offshore flow expected Friday night into
Saturday, backing northerly for a time Saturday afternoon/evening.
There could a relatively brief period later in the day Saturday
requiring a Small Craft Advisory before things subside and go
offshore again Saturday night.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Meade/Ceru
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...Meade
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
550 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions into early this evening and
again Friday afternoon.
- Windy conditions are expected Friday with wind gusts of 40-50
mph along and west of an Osceola to Cassville line. Gusts of
30-40 mph elsewhere across the Missouri Ozarks.
- An active weather period Sunday into Monday with some strong
to possibly severe storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Synoptic Scale Pattern and Current Conditions:
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper level trough progressing east
across the Appalachian states with an upper level ridge across the
northern and central Plains. This puts the Missouri Ozarks region in
a northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a sprawling area of high
pressure is slowly sliding southeast across the Ohio and Lower
Mississippi Valleys. We have seen a return to light southwesterly
surface winds behind that surface high.
While skies are largely clear across the area, we have seen some
smoke and haze from fires across northeastern Oklahoma and
southeastern Kansas. Temperatures are much milder today with most
areas in the upper 50s and lower 60s as of 2 PM.
Late this Afternoon and Tonight:
Pleasant conditions will persist with surface winds gradually
increasing and backing to southerly. The backing surface winds
should take most of the near-surface smoke northward across eastern
Kansas. However, the HRRR vertically integrated smoke product does
still advect smoke into area tonight, especially along and north of
the I-44 corridor. This is due to a strengthening southwesterly 850
mb jet stream. Thus, there will still be lingering haziness due
to the smoke.
The increasing surface winds will result in a fairly large
temperature gradient across the area tonight. Lows along and west of
the I-49 corridor will fall into the middle and upper 40s. In
contrast, the eastern Ozarks will see lows in the upper 30s and
lower 40s.
Friday:
That upper level ridge will quickly translate east into the Great
Lakes with a subtle short wave trough tracking east across the
northern and central Plains. Meanwhile, a strong upper level low
will approach the California Coast with diffluent southwesterly
flow developing across the western U.S.
Surface pressure gradients will tighten up across the region as low
pressure develops across the central Plains and that surface high
pressure continues to depart to our southeast. Brisk south to
southwest surface winds will therefore develop Friday morning and
will persist into the afternoon.
Inspection of NBM and HREF probabilistic data reveals 60-80%
probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 45 mph roughly along and west
of an Osceola to Cassville line. Bufkit momentum transfer plots
support these probabilities with gusts to 45 mph. This is quite
attainable given that we will mix above 3000 feet AGL. We have
therefore issued a Wind Advisory for this area.
Temperatures will be mild on Friday as we continue to see warm
air advection in the lower and middle portions of the
atmosphere. Progged 850 mb temperatures warming into the 10-12
Celsius range suggest that high temperatures will reach the
lower to middle 70s. We do expect an increase in high clouds
throughout the day. If clouds are thinner than expected, a few
locations could make a run at the upper 70s.
Meanwhile, low level moisture will begin to increase as we begin to
see trajectories off of the western Gulf of Mexico. However, we
think that appreciable moisture increase will not occur on Friday,
especially across the eastern Ozarks. Friday therefore looks like
another day that will feature elevated fire weather conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
That aforementioned short wave trough will drive a surface cold
front into the Ozarks from Friday night into Saturday morning. Short
range ensembles then show good agreement that the front will stall
Saturday afternoon and evening before beginning to lift north as a
warm front Saturday night.
While moisture will be somewhat limited ahead of the front, there
will be weak instability (MUCAPEs less than 500 J/kg) present from
later Friday night into Saturday morning. With short term ensembles
suggesting a low level jet nosing into the region, that may open the
door for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. We
have maintained 20-30% PoPs mainly up across central Missouri to
cover this potential scenario.
Additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then remain
possible (20-40% chance) from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night
as that front stalls and begins to lift back north. The "highest"
potential for precipitation will be north of Highway 60.
Sunday into Monday:
Global ensembles continue to depict that the upper level low will
dig down the California coast with a portion of the upper level low
splitting off and tracking east into the northern or central Rockies
on Sunday. This will effectively result in a large and positively
tilted long wave trough. Ensembles then gradually progress that
trough to the east on Monday with some notable timing differences.
At the surface, most ensemble scenarios develop a surface low across
the central High Plains during the day on Sunday with that low then
tracking east along that warm front Sunday night and Monday. Nearly
all ensemble solutions then indicate a cold front overtaking a dry
line and pushing through the Ozarks sometime later Monday or Monday
night.
The synoptic scale pattern along with forecast instability and shear
indicate the potential for severe storms across a large portion of
the central U.S., especially on Monday. SPC has outlooked this
general region with 15% probabilities. The CIPS and CSU Machine
Learning products indicate even higher potential for severe storms.
Additionally, both the ECMWF and NAEFS ensemble systems indicate
high amounts of moisture available to this system. That includes
precipitable water and integrated vapor transport values in the 90-
99th percentile of 30-year climatologies. This would be supportive
of heavy rainfall potential if this system is less progressive.
Interested parties should keep up with the forecast given the
potential hazards associated with this system.
Once this system clears the area, a return to cooler and drier
weather is on tap by the middle of next week as that trough pushes
across the central U.S. We will need to keep an eye on overnight low
temperatures as NBM statistical data indicates that a frost and/or
freeze could be in play.
Longer range ensembles and five wave charts then indicate upper
level ridging and a signal for above normal temperatures returning
in the April 5-11 time frame. Towards the tail end of that time
frame, five wave charts then begin to transition us to more of a
southwest flow. This would open the door for more active
weather.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF
period. Expect south-southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots through
this evening, becoming predominately southerly overnight into
Friday morning. LLWS around 40 to 45 knots at all TAF sites on
Friday morning. Expect winds to increase through Friday morning
into the afternoon, with wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots. Some wind
gusts may exceed 35 knots at KJLN during the afternoon.
Additionally, high level cloud cover will be on the increase in
the later part of the TAF period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
March 31:
KSGF: 62/1967
April 1:
KSGF: 62/1946
Record Precipitation:
April 1:
KVIH: 0.88/1945
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ066-067-077-
078-088-089-093-094-101-102.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Schaumann