Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/16/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
954 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near-critical fire weather conditions for Saturday with winds
gusting 25 to 35 mph and minimum relative humidities dropping
to around 30% or lower south of I-94.
- Cooler than normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday
with highs remaining in the 30s. Wind chills in the single
digits to around 0 degrees are likely Monday morning.
- Temperatures return to slightly above normal beginning Tuesday
with the next chance for widespread measurable precipitation
on Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Tonight/Saturday:
Upper level shortwave trough and a leading sfc cold front set to
drop southeast out of Canada and push across the region tonight.
Some frontogenetic forcing with the boundary along with a streaking
50 kt 850 mb low level jet. Forcing suggests at least small rain
chances, but dry air currently in place along with saturation
concerns will work to limit those. Afternoon mixing continues to dry
out the near surface layer while short/medium range guidance holds
any "deeper" saturation across northeast Wisconsin. Stretching
southwest of there the moisture shallows out and may not be enough
to hold any pcpn chances. Locally, low end chances (10-20%) are
confined north/east of I-94. Minimal if any accums if realized.
More impacts will be the winds associated with the front/leading
edge of the shortwave. With the aforementioned low level jet a top
the system as it moves through and lack of a stronger sfc inversion
developing, mixing could/will still be realized. Gusts upwards of 30
to 35 mph are expected - roughly from midnight through 6 am.
The winds should settle down a bit for Sat morning before picking
back up Sat afternoon with mixing. However, saturation does increase
post the front, and promises some broken low/mid level cloudiness -
although trending north of I-90. Clouds will temper the mixing a bit
- but drying in the near sfc layer is again expected along with
winds gusts back into the upper 20s/lower 30s mph. With dry grasses
and other fuels, near critical fire weather conditions are expected.
More on that in the "Fire Weather" discussion below. Lastly, there
is a low end shot that there could be enough instability as cold air
a loft (+9 C 1000:850 mb lapse rates) suggests some convective
potential. Considering the dry air concerns (and likely more
drying), whether more than just some after CU would be realized is a
question. No meso/short term model support for even a smattering of
rain chances and will leave out of the forecast for now.
Sunday - Monday: Significantly Cooler
As we head into Sunday, an upper-level trough coming out of Canada
will usher in a cooler airmass with 850mb temperatures of -13 to
-15C in the deterministic 15.12z EC/GFS. Consequently, there is a
fairly good signal for temperatures to head below normal, the first
time for La Crosse and Rochester this month, with highs remaining in
the 30s areawide. Overnight Sunday and into Monday morning
temperatures will bottom out in the teens. With this in mind and
some increased northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph ahead of an
incoming high pressure center will allow for wind chills to tank
into the single digits, some spots even below zero.
With the Canadian airmass directly overhead on Monday, highs will
remain below normal with temperatures not escaping the 30s for most.
Monday generally will remain fairly clear with subsidence associated
with the aforementioned high pressure system keeping skies largely
void of cloud cover through Monday afternoon, especially further
south across northeast Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin.
Tuesday - Friday: Temperatures Rebound, Some Precipitation Chances
As the aforementioned trough and accompanied surface high pressure
departs the region, northwesterly surface flow will briefly turn to
southerly allowing for warmer air to be advected into the Upper
Midwest on overnight Monday and early Tuesday. This is ahead of a
weak surface low associated with a piece of vorticity caught in the
500mb northwesterly flow pattern. However confidence in any
meaningful precipitation is becoming lower as probabilistic guidance
in the 15.12z EC ensemble has lower confidence (30-50% chance)
for measurable precipitation with the 15.12z GEFS trending even
lower (10-20% chance) for Taylor County on Tuesday.
Otherwise, the main story for Tuesday and beyond will be the
recovering temperatures as highs will rebound above average once
again with highs across the region trending into the upper 40s to
lower 50s south of I-94 (lower to middle 40s north of I-94).
Expecting these highs to remain roughly steady-state through
Thursday with a quasi-zonal to northwesterly upper-level flow
pattern in place. Some uncertainty comes with a wave that approaches
regarding precipitation amounts and type but confidence is
increasing somewhat in measurable precipitation late week with
the 15.12z EC ensemble showing increased probabilities (60-80%
chance) for measurable precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with a
period of gusty WSW winds overnight tonight becoming NW on
Saturday, gusting 25 to 30 kts. Mid-level clouds will increase
overnight tonight with lower 3.5-5kft VFR clouds moving in
during the morning on Saturday. A period of low level wind shear
is possible for a several hour window overnight tonight as
winds aloft increase, but with some mixing/gust likely there is
not specific mention of LLWS in the TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Minimum relative humidity values will remain between 25 to 40
percent as forecast soundings show fairly prime mixing days into
next week. Saturday appears to be the main day of interest for fire
weather concerns with minimum relative humidities dropping as low as
the upper 20 percent range in spots. Certainly could see some
overachieving, cloud cover dependent, in relative humidities
with hydroplapse rates atop the mixed layer in the 15.16z RAP
suggesting dewpoints dropping from -12C to -37C in the 700-800mb
layer. This combined with increasing surface winds of 20 to 30
mph will allow for near-critical fire weather conditions during
the day Saturday. Areas of greatest concern will be along and
north of I-90 where minimal rainfall from earlier systems have
kept fuels dry. The one significant unknown for Saturday will be
how cloud cover trends will affect conditions during the
afternoon. Model soundings show a very shallow saturated layer
at around 4kft atop the mixed layer suggesting that low-level
cloud cover will be possible. The question remains if afternoon
mixing will help to clear this out which could allow our
relative humidities to plummet. If cloud cover hangs does hang
around, this would keep our temperatures down and consequently
not allow our relative humidities to tank as effectively with
ineffective mixing.
Otherwise, as cooler temperatures move in for Sunday and Monday,
fire weather concerns mitigate some although relative humidities are
still expected to remain on the lower side with values forecast
between 25 to 40 percent through Wednesday. As a surface high
pressure system works its way south of the region, winds will
slightly begin to decrease with winds by Monday decreasing to 15-20
mph. May have to watch Tuesday for additional fire weather concerns
as temperatures begin to warm with clearer skies and increasing
winds.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Naylor/Rieck
AVIATION...KAA/JM
FIRE WEATHER...Naylor
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
705 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Delayed onset of thunderstorms chances for the mid and and lower
RGV until around midnight with area void of activity at this time.
22Z HRRR indicates western areas seeing activity roll in from the
Sierra Madre after 02Z spreading east but weakening there after.
Currently (0630 LDT), BRO WSR-88 Doppler radar is showing one
storm approximately 40 miles west of Zapata county moving
southeast at around 20 mph. We will continue to monitor for
additional storms with instability still rather high and the cap
weakening however there remains a strong cap over the eastern
half of the County Warning Area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
The short term forecast period starts off active, as parts of the
Northern Ranchlands and Upper Rio Grande Valley have been put into
an area of slight risk (level 2 out of 5) and marginal risk (level 1
out of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and this evening. While
the forcing is not the best, the cold front that is north of Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will allow for some isolated
showers and thunderstorms to develop. Any developing thunderstorms
do have the potential to become supercell. The primary risk with any
severe thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening is large hail,
which could be baseball size or larger. There is also the threat of
strong winds as well, however that is dependent upon how the
thunderstorms organize themselves. Then there is the low probability
of tornadoes as well. As for the rest of Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley, the current situation sees the area in a general
thunderstorm outlook, so showers and thunderstorms are possible, but
not expected to be severe. The Weather Prediction Center also has
the Northern Ranchlands in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) of
excessive rainfall due to the heavy rain associated with the
thunderstorms. The latest HRRR model run does show the development
of thunderstorm over these areas thus adding to the confidence of
the severe threat.
Then for tomorrow a similar set up as today will allow for more
active weather for the region. Currently the Storm Prediction Center
has about half of the CWA in a marginal risk of severe weather,
which includes the Northern Ranchlands, the Upper Rio Grande Valley,
and parts of the Mid Valley as well. The other half of the CWA is in
a general thunderstorm outlook. The Weather Prediction Center also
has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for tomorrow, but that is
more limited to the Northern Ranchlands.
As for the temperatures, tonight the lows are expected to be in the
range of upper 60s to low 70s, with the cooler temperatures in the
Northern Ranchlands, while the warmer temperatures will be in the
Lower Rio Grande Valley. The high temperatures for tomorrow are
expected to be in the 80s for all of Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley. However some places in the Middle Rio Grande Valley
may get to the 90s. Finally, the low temperatures for tomorrow night
are expected to be in mostly the upper 60s, with a few places in the
low 70s.
Lastly, for those going to the beach or enjoying spring break, a
moderate risk of rip currents is expected to continue through
tomorrow. Wave heights are expected to still be in the range of 2 to
4 feet as well.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
A cut-off low over the southwestern US looks to remain in place
through mid week supporting southwesterly flow aloft through the
beginning of the period. A series of shortwaves moving over Deep
South Texas will provide additional forcing and support rain
chances through the first half of the period. The cut-off low
looks to finally move further east Wednesday, likely kicking off a
surface low over North Texas and providing additional forcing
over Deep South Texas.
At the surface, a weak cold front looks to move through the area
Sunday. Enhanced forcing from a passing shortwave, weak frontal
lifting, PW values around 1.5”, and CAPE values >2000 J/kg could
support some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead
of and along the front. Rain chances will continue into Monday,
however thunderstorm potential will diminish behind the front
Sunday night as CAPE values decrease and we transition into a weak
overrunning setup.
Easterly to southeasterly surface flow looks to return Tuesday
into Tuesday night. This will support increasing temperatures for
the later half of the period as well as increased low level
moisture. Additional rain is possible Tuesday, thanks in part to
another shortwave moving overhead, though rain chances are capped
at roughly 20%.
Instability looks to increase Wednesday afternoon, coinciding
with the increased forcing from the passing upper level trough.
This will reintroduce the potential for isolated showers and
thunderstorms into the forecast Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
morning.
High temperatures Sunday in the upper 70s to low 80s will be
replaced with highs in the upper 60 to low 70s Monday and Tuesday
thanks to continued northerly to northeasterly flow behind the
cold front. As winds shift southeasterly on Tuesday, high
temperatures will begin to climb, reaching the upper 80s to low
90s by Friday. Similarly low temperatures in the 60s Sunday night
will continue to fall in the upper 50s to low 60 Monday and
Tuesday nights, before climbing back into the 60s Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Ceilings to develop and lower overnight with MVFR and possible IFR
around sunrise Saturday. At 00Z all areas are seeing VFR with
MVFR ceilings expected to develop around or shortly after 03Z.
Thunderstorm activity is possible over the western areas of Deep
South Texas with a 20-30 percent chance of storms approaching KMFE
after 06Z and after 09Z at KHRL or KBRO although confidence is
low for storms tracking east of I-69C. Light southeast winds
expected overnight with occasional higher gusts near 20 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Tonight through Saturday night...Mostly favorable conditions are
expected to continue through Saturday night. Light to moderate
onshore flow is expected to persist alongside low to moderate waves.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the waters.
Sunday through next Friday...Light to moderate southeasterly winds
shift northeasterly Sunday with the passage of a cold front.
Tightening pressure gradients and stronger winds behind the front
will likely result in adverse marine conditions Monday, as seas
build to 8 ft. Small Craft Advisories may be need throughout the
day Monday. Winds look to weaken and shift easterly to
southeasterly Tuesday as high pressure sets up over the northern
Gulf. This will support light to moderate southeasterly winds and
low to moderate seas through the remainder of the period. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday,
Wednesday night, and Thursday. Some brief periods of light rain
are possible Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 72 84 70 81 / 20 10 20 20
HARLINGEN 69 86 67 82 / 30 10 30 30
MCALLEN 72 89 70 86 / 20 20 40 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 70 87 67 84 / 40 30 50 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 75 69 74 / 30 10 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 80 67 78 / 30 10 20 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...59-GB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
642 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No major changes were made with this forecast update as the
previous forecast remains in good shape. A dreary afternoon has
set up across North and Central Texas with our latest round of
showers and isolated thunderstorms pushing across the Metroplex.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are moving across our north
westernmost counties right now with another area of development
across Central Texas. Severe weather is not expected at this time,
but there could be small hail associated with a couple of elevated
cores as we move through the evening. Weather conditions should
gradually improve overnight tonight as a lull in precipitation
overtakes the region. Another shortwave will push along a stalled
front that is currently draped across Central Texas, allowing for
on and off showers and thunderstorms once again across the region.
For more information please read the previous discussion below.
Reeves
Previous Discussion:
/Today through Saturday Afternoon/
Currently the upper shortwave is moving across the region,
increasing isentropic lift over the post-frontal airmass. Showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to migrate to the
east-northeast across North Texas, weakening as they stray further
into cooler, more stable air. Better chances for thunderstorms
this afternoon are expected in Southern Central Texas and South
Texas, closer to the slow-moving front and instability axis.
Slightly better chances for strong to marginally severe storms
will accompany our far southern counties mid-late afternoon.
Thankfully North and Central Texas will have a lull in precipitation
during the evening and overnight hours in between shortwave
passages. There may be some isolated precipitation that skirts the
southern CWA border between FWD and EWX/HGX, but most activity
will remain to our south. As we`ll stay pretty cloudy throughout
the next few days, so overnight low temperatures will generally
fare warmer for most. Expect Saturday low temps in the upper 40s
to low 60s.
Another shortwave will transit across North and Central Texas on
Saturday. Clusters of showers and storms will form to the west of
our Big Country counties in San Angelo`s area of responsibility
early-mid morning, and surge eastward over the course of the day.
Current CAMs are not in exact agreement with the speed of the
system, with the NAMNest favoring more of a stronger broken linear
system with a faster movement. The HRRR is a bit on the more
conservative side with this activity, being a few hours behind and
much more messy in storm mode. The HRRR has generally handled the
current storm cluster well, so am favoring this solution for now.
We`ll continue to watch over new model guidance overnight to see
how accurate the CAMs are in storm initialization. Once again,
severe weather is not expected at this time for North Texas, but
some stronger storms in Central Texas could produce hail.
Otherwise, expect another cooler day with Saturday highs in the
upper 50s out west to the upper 60s/low 70s out east.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 332 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/
/Saturday Night Onward/
Saturday`s convection will exit to the east Saturday evening as
the shortwave responsible heads for the Central Gulf Coast region.
A second shortwave embedded within the subtropical jet will bring
another brief round of showers and isolated storms to Central
Texas overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. With a surface
front remaining stationary just south of the forecast area,
storms should be elevated in nature and largely sub-severe. Steep
mid level lapse rates may still support quarter sized hail in a
storm or two.
North and Central Texas will then become situated between a
persistent upper low over the Desert Southwest and a deepening
trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, creating a brief period
of ridging aloft. The eastern trough will help push a second cold
front south through the region, reinforcing the seasonably cool
airmass and dropping temperatures another 5 to 10 degrees for the
start of the work week. Cool and dry weather will be the end result
for the start of next week with lows in the 40s and highs in the
60s.
The upper low to the west will finally become dislodged from its
stagnant position and begin moving east on Tuesday.
The system will cross the Four Corners region Tuesday night
before emerging in the Plains on Wednesday. Moisture return
should be sufficient for the development of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms for the midweek period as isentropic lift
strengthens in advance of the approaching upper low. The best rain
chances should be Wednesday into Wednesday night as the system
crosses the Southern Plains. Precipitation will mostly exit to the
east on Thursday, but will keep some POPs going due to
uncertainty regarding how progressive the upper low will be.
Seasonably cool and dry weather can then be expected for next
weekend as the system exits to the east and a cold front pushes
south in its wake.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
Concerns...MVFR/IFR ceilings with VCSH/VCTS tomorrow afternoon.
Another round of MVFR ceilings has overtaken the D10 terminals,
and will likely stick around with brief periods of clearing
through the evening. A stratus intrusion will setup across North
and Central Texas during the early morning hours tomorrow,
overtaking Waco by around 07-08z and the rest of the D10 terminals
by around 09-10z. There is a medium chance for IFR ceilings
through tomorrow morning into the early afternoon across all
terminals. A low chance (20-30%) of LIFR ceilings does exist
through the same timeframe, mainly for Waco but the rest of the
D10 cannot be totally ruled out. An additional round of showers
and thunderstorms will push through the region once again late
tomorrow morning through the evening hours.
Reeves
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 57 66 56 68 48 / 10 80 50 20 10
Waco 60 68 58 67 48 / 10 80 60 40 10
Paris 54 68 55 68 43 / 10 60 50 10 5
Denton 53 64 52 66 43 / 10 70 40 10 5
McKinney 55 66 55 66 44 / 10 60 50 10 5
Dallas 57 66 57 68 48 / 10 70 60 20 10
Terrell 57 67 56 66 46 / 10 70 70 20 10
Corsicana 62 70 60 68 49 / 10 80 70 30 10
Temple 60 69 58 66 49 / 10 80 60 40 10
Mineral Wells 53 64 52 66 44 / 10 80 40 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet, dry, and breezy this weekend as a backdoor cold front
sweeps through the area Saturday.
- With the mild and dry conditions persisting, elevated fire weather
concerns exist this weekend into the middle of the week.
- Temperatures rebound back into the above-normal range generally in
the 50s and 60s Monday through mid-week ahead of cooler temperatures
with an increased threat of precipitation to close out the week into
the weekend.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Recent GOES-16 WV and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a near stationary
closed low pressure system spinning over the Desert Southwest.
Further northwest of this feature, upper-level high pressure was
pushing onshore over the Pacific Northwest. A potent upper-level
shortwave was dropping southeast out of Manitoba into the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure was centered over
southwest Nebraska, extending across the northern and central
Plains. The upper-level system over Manitoba is vertically
stacked with surface low pressure noted with an attendant cold
front extending west-southwest, advancing towards the
US/Canadian border. Outside of some high clouds passing by,
clear skies prevail across western and north central Nebraska
this afternoon. As of 3 PM CT, temperatures ranged from 49 at
Imperial to 54 degrees at Ainsworth.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Saturday and Saturday night... As the aforementioned closed low
drops into southern Ontario and the northern Great Lakes region, the
backdoor cold front will continue southward, knocking on northern
Nebraska come daybreak on Saturday. The front will continue to
advance across western and north central Nebraska through the day
with the intrusion of colder air behind the frontal passage expected
overnight on Saturday. However, high temperature Saturday will be
comparative to today ranging from the 50s to low 60s which is at or
slightly above normal for mid-March. A tightening surface pressure
gradient (SPG) will result in strengthening north
north/northwesterly winds encompassing the area during the day on
Saturday. Widespread gusts of 20 to 30 miles per hour will be common
across the area with the strongest gusts up to 35 miles per hour
over north central Nebraska, coinciding with where the tightest
gradient is expected. These breezy winds begin to subside around
sunset as the Great Lakes surface low continues southeastward,
allowing the SPG to relax some. Meager cold air advection (CAA)
behind the front will be felt overnight Saturday with lows falling
into the 20s across the region.
Sunday and Sunday Night... Highs on Sunday will only climb into the
40s with the exception of far southwestern Nebraska where mid 50s
may be felt thanks to the frontal passage. North-northwest winds
increase again on Sunday as the SPG tightens between surface high
pressure nudging out of Canada and the low pressure system holding
strong over the northeastern US. While the probability of wind
gusts exceeding 40 miles per hour is non-zero, there is high
confidence (>85%) that the gusts observed will remain in the 25
to 35 miles per hour range during the day on Sunday. The
Canadian high centers over the northern Plains overnight on
Sunday with lows falling below normal into the upper teens.
With such breezy winds both Saturday and Sunday combining with
afternoon relative humidity values bottoming out in the 20 to 30%
range, fire weather concerns will remain elevated both days. At this
time it doesn`t appear that critical conditions will develop but
conditions will be closely monitored.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
The upper-level pattern for the start of the long term period will
be defined by an Omega Block. The stubborn closed low will continue
across the Desert Southwest with high pressure centering over the
Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin. On either side of these
features, troughing will be evident across the Gulf of Alaska into
the north Pacific and over the eastern two thirds of the CONUS.
As the upper-level ridge continues to build across the western
CONUS, temperatures rebound back into the 50s and 60s through
mid-week with the warmest temperatures anticipated on Wednesday
where highs in the upper 60s to low 70s appears likely across
the area. With limited moisture and unseasonably warm
temperatures, fire weather concerns will remain elevated through
Wednesday.
As we head into Thursday, quasi-zonal flow aloft will set up
with the upper-level low currently across the Desert Southwest
makes way across the southern Plains. Beyond this, considerable
differences amongst model solutions exists on the overall
synoptic flow heading into the weekend. Most guidance does hint
at the potential for a threat of precipitation returning across
the region, however, many questions remain unanswered being
nearly 7 days out resulting in low confidence at this time. One
thing that does stand out is that this system has the potential
to bring a notable cooldown compared to earlier in the week with
highs falling into the 40s or potentially colder. This in lies
the biggest question with this system, just how much polar air
will move southward out of Canada? Will need to continue to
monitor trends in the coming days with this system.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Deep sfc low pressure will move east through Ontario during
the next 24 hours. The low pressure will continue to circulate
dry stable air into wrn and ncntl Nebraska and the risk of MVFR
or lower flight conditions is very low, less than 20 percent.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Viken
SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1009 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather gives way to a brief round of light rain showers
overnight as a cold front moves through. Some snow may mix in
at times.
- A prolonged gale event on Lake Superior starts tonight and
lasts into Sunday night.
- Southwest winds turn gusty overnight, particularly across the
Keweenaw.
- Below-normal temperatures, continued blustery conditions into
early next week and accumulating lake-effect snow potential
are expected Saturday night into Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a vigorous shortwave
dropping se into northern Ontario. Associated 995mb sfc low has
moved out of Manitoba into northern Ontario and is located to the nw
of Pickle Lake. Most of the pcpn associated with this system is
occurring to the n of the International Border, but some -ra has
developed southward into far northern MN this evening. Closer to
home, clouds are thickening, and temps range from the mid 30s to mid
40s.
Fcst appears to be in good shape with respect to pcpn chance
tonight. For most locations, pcpn chc will only last 1-3hrs with
pops ranging from 20-30pct far w to s central to 50-60pct Keweenaw
and to around 80pct e where best chc of column saturation occurs.
As for winds, even though a ~50kt low-level jet will translate
across the area just ahead of cold front, fcst soundings show
stability will work to limit mixing to higher winds overnight.
Strongly considered dropping wind advy for the Keweenaw, but there
is a small window (1-2hrs) just after fropa with the wind shift to a
more favorable w direction where gusts may still reach 45mph. That
said, with very weak caa, stability will still be an issue. Pres
rise/fall couplet is not particularly sharp either for an
isallobaric boost. Wind advy valid time was trimmed back to the
immediate postfrontal period from 07z-12z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Skies are staying sunny across most of the area so far this
afternoon with weak ridging extending from a surface high sprawled
out over the Plains. A deepening surface low is analyzed over
Manitoba, resulting in a turn over to southerly flow over the Great
Lakes. This is helping to keep temperatures quite mild, with most of
hte area well into the 40s already. Expect temperatures to top out
in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the area today. Mid and
high level clouds should start to spread into the western UP closer
to sunset.
The surface low continues to track eastward through northern Ontario
tonight, with a trailing cold front extending southward through the
Great Lakes. SW winds pick up ahead of it, gusting to 20 to 30 mph
overnight. Stronger gusts around and even in excess of 40 mph are
possible across the Keweenaw for several hours. This will likely
necessitate the issuance of a wind advisory overnight. The passing
front will also touch off a round of rain showers, beginning by
midnight in the western UP and quickly exiting east into the pre-
dawn hours. Some snow may also mix in at times in the typically
cooler spots, but with most of the area hovering in the mid and
upper 30s for most of the night, significant snow accumulations are
not expected. Behind the front, chilly WNW flow will result in the
development of light lake effect snow showers by Saturday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Well, Winter is finally deciding to show up a little now that we`ve
entered into Meteorological Spring! Normal to below normal
temperatures dominate the extended period as we see generally light
lake-effect snowfall across the northwest to north snow belts this
weekend through early next week. Additional snow chances are also
possible late next week too as the troughing pattern remains over
the Northeast and Upper Midwest. Additional details to the forecast
follow below.
The cold front of the shortwave digging through northern Ontario
drops across the U.P. Saturday from northwest to southeast
throughout the day. As this occurs, we should see snow showers
beginning over the western U.P. across the northwest snow belts and
precipitation showers (mainly rain in the morning) over the eastern
U.P. transition to pure lake-effect snow by the late afternoon
hours. While the cold air advection (CAA) and lake-effect cloud
cover will keep our region fairly insulated and cool Saturday, we
could still see highs temperatures fight to get into the mid 40s
across the south central as cloud cover may be more broken up over
there. Likewise, temperatures over the northwest/the Keweenaw are
expected to be at their zenith during the morning hours as the cold
air advection slowly drops temperatures from the mid 30s to around
30 throughout the day. Blustery northwesterly winds are expected
behind the cold front, with the Keweenaw possibly (65% chance)
gusting up to 40 mph throughout the day. It`s possible, although not
likely (25% chance) that we could see a few gusts up to 45 mph here
and there in the afternoon. Otherwise, expect the winds across the
rest of the U.P. to gust up to 25 to 35 mph.
Snowfall accumulations look to be fairly slushy and limited to the
higher elevations of the western U.P. until the overnight hours. On
Saturday night, a secondary cold front dropping down from northern
Ontario intensifies lake-enhanced snowfall across the northwest to
north snow belts. CAMs show moderate to maybe (50% chance) heavy
snow bands moving across the northern U.P. Saturday night. With the
blustery conditions continuing ahead of and behind the secondary
cold front, thinking it`s very likely (90%+ chance) that we see some
patchy blowing snow along the Lake Superior shoreline. With the SLRs
initially being near 10:1 to the mid teens by around midnight, we
could see a slushy dusting hit the roads before fluffier snowfall
settles over the northern U.P. As the lake-effect snowfall continues
into Sunday, the main impacts look to be slick roads and reduced
visibilities at times. Therefore, be sure to drive with a little
extra caution if you plan on traveling to church/the grocery
store/etc. Sunday. As ridging slowly builds in from the west Sunday
evening through Monday, expect the lake-effect snowfall to decrease.
The ridging looks to take the lake-effect snowfall out of our area
by late Monday afternoon. However, there is a chance (30%) that we
could see light snowfall return again to the area Monday night and
Tuesday due to another shortwave digging through the Upper Midwest.
Ultimately, thinking we could see 2 to 7 inches across the north to
northwest snow belts Saturday night through Sunday night, with minor
accumulations expected Monday into Tuesday.
As we move into the middle to end of next week, expect to see
shortwave activity across the region, causing us to see some light
snowfall chances from time to time. With a rex block setting up over
the Western U.S. and a general troughing pattern remaining over
eastern Canada, normal to below normal temperatures are expected to
continue. While the chance is small (<10%), the deterministic 12z
GFS is hinting at a quick-hitting significant snowfall event across
the U.P. next Thursday night through Friday. On the other end of the
spectrum, the deterministic 00z ECMWF keeps us dry with the
shortwave activity generally missing us to the south from Wednesday
onwards due to localized high pressure ridging over us. Thus,
whether we see snowfall or not for the end of the extended period
will depend on where the localized high pressure ends up; if to our
north, the chances become more likely. But if it moves over us or to
our south, the chances become less likely.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 802 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
VFR is expected at IWD/CMX/SAW tonight despite a cold front sweeping
thru the area in association with low pres tracking across northern
Ontario. Low-level jet just ahead of the front will lead to a 3-4hr
period of LLWS at all terminals tonight. Sfc winds will be gusty at
times, but strongest wind potential will be at CMX where winds may
gust to 35+kt for a short time immediately after fropa overnight. On
Sat, increasingly colder air moving into the area along with daytime
heating will result in gusty wnw winds of 30-35+kt at all terminals,
strongest at CMX. Cyclonic flow and deep moisture will also support
scattered -shsn across the area, including -shrasn in the morning.
Cigs may slip to MVFR for a time during the morning/early aftn at
IWD. Otherwise, VFR should prevail at all terminals on Sat though
MVFR vis will be possible with any passing -shsn.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots over the western half of Lake
Superior this afternoon increase to gales up to 40 knots late
tonight ahead of a cold front passing through from northwest to
southeast; the greatest winds are expected in the north central lake
around 1-3 AM EDT. Expect the winds to veer to the northwest
Saturday as gales up to 35 knots are expected from time to time
across the lake. Winds could (50% chance) gust up to as high as 40
knots over the eastern half Saturday afternoon through evening ahead
of a secondary cold front moving through the area Saturday night.
Behind the secondary cold front, winds veer to the north, with gales
up to 35 to 40 knots being seen over the central and eastern lake
late Saturday night into Sunday. As the pressure gradient weakens
over the area Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, the winds slowly
decrease with time, becoming northerly winds of 20 to 30 knots
across the central and eastern lake Monday morning. With high
pressure ridging building into Lake Superior Monday, the winds
weaken to 20 to 25 knots over the eastern half as they back to the
northwest. With another shortwave possibly moving through the Upper
Great Lakes Monday night through Tuesday, we could see winds
restrengthen again (40% chance). Additional shortwave activity could
(35% chance) bring higher winds back across Lake Superior into
Wednesday too.
With the higher winds and colder temperatures expected over the next
several days, we could see some moderate freezing spray late
Saturday night through Monday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ001-003.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162-
240>242-263.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for LSZ243-244-264.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
LSZ245>251.
Gale Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
LSZ245>251-265>267.
Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Rolfson
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...TAP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
502 PM MST Fri Mar 15 2024
.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will result in widespread showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the region through the remainder
of this afternoon and into the evening. Any thunderstorms that
develop will capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, small
hail, and gusty winds. Rain chances will continue to linger
through early next week, mainly over the Arizona High Terrain as
the low pressure system meanders over the region. Well-below
normal temperatures are expected for today but will gradually warm
up through the weekend and into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across parts of the
forecast area in response to a potent cutoff low currently centered
over far western Arizona near Yuma. Rainfall amounts thus far today
have been highest across high terrain areas east of Phoenix where
training showers have led to observed totals in excess of 0.75" with
some areas seeing amounts in excess of 1.00". Amounts elsewhere from
shower activity across the lower deserts have been light so far,
mostly under 0.10" with some areas closer to 0.25". Rain chances
will be greatest this afternoon along with the threat for
thunderstorms. Temperatures today will be well below normal (~10-15
degrees below normal) as highs only top out in the low to mid 60s
across the lower deserts.
Going through the afternoon, mid-level lapse rates will continue to
increase across south-central Arizona as the proximity of the cold
core pushes closer with the upper low gradually shifting northeast
in far western Arizona. Instability will continue to increase for
this afternoon with current RAP analysis showing some MUCAPE around
100-250 J/kg across the Arizona lower deserts and closer to 500 J/kg
east of Phoenix. The latest 12Z HREF guidance keeps the greatest
instability further to the east across eastern Arizona, while MUCAPE
values are expected to generally be around 100-300 J/kg across south-
central Arizona. Though instability will be a bit limited, coupled
with upper level divergence over the area along with 0-6 km shear
values upwards of 40-50 kts will promote convective development
across south-central Arizona with a few stronger, organized
thunderstorms possible. The primary threats with thunderstorms
will be small hail, locally heavy rainfall perhaps leading to some
nuisance flooding, and gusty winds. In fact, a few thunderstorms
so far this afternoon have already produced some small hail in a
few areas. WPC QPF storm total amounts around the Valley are
around 0.20- 0.40", 0.50-1.00"+ to the east across the southern
Gila County high terrain, and lighter amounts up to 0.10-0.25" to
the west across southeast California and southwest Arizona. CAMs
indicate some training of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible that could lead to locally higher rainfall amounts.
Additionally, areas that end up under a thunderstorm could see
localized amounts upwards of 0.50-1.00", though the fast-moving
nature of these thunderstorms will limit their residence time over
a given area. Snow levels today will remain high enough to limit
light snowfall accumulations to the high elevation peaks in
southern Gila County. For Saturday morning, depending on how much
rainfall we see today some patchy fog development may occur in a
few areas such as northwest Pinal County as clearing skies and
light winds are expected in these areas.
Through the weekend and into early next week, the upper-level cutoff
low will continue to meander over the Southwest CONUS before
guidance show the Rex Block pattern breaking down and the upper low
pushing out of the region during the middle part of next week. Rain
chances will linger for some areas Saturday but will be
significantly lower compared to today with shower/thunderstorm
activity expected to be more isolated. Chances will primarily favor
high terrain areas with slight chances out across parts of La Paz
County and far northern Maricopa County given the proximity of the
low and thus where some of the better instability will be. PoPs
become primarily confined to the northern Arizona high terrain and
into parts of southern Gila County Sunday through early next week.
Once the low shifts east mid next week, weak ridging/quasi-zonal
flow is expected to prevail through the remainder of the week with
increasing going into next week in regards to potential troughing
returning the region. Temperatures will warm up gradually warm up
through the weekend with highs returning to near normal readings by
Monday. NBM temperatures further warm up into the low to mid 80s
across the lower deserts going into the middle part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 0001Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main area of SHRA has moved of to the north and east of
Phoenix terminals, however VCSH and brief -SHRA are still
anticipated through 01-02Z. Conditions should then remain dry
through Saturday, with rain chances under 10% Saturday afternoon.
CIGs are currently around 5-6K ft with cloud coverage expected to
further improve to FEW to SCT 5-6K ft across Phoenix later this
evening and tonight. SCT to BKN 5-6K ft is then expected Saturday
afternoon. There is some uncertainty with the wind direction the
next few hours, but as of now a N to NE is favored. E winds will
then prevail tonight through Saturday morning with light speeds,
aob 7 kts. Light winds continue during the day Saturday, with some
variability midday before shifting W in the afternoon.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
VCSH is ongoing at KBLH and should continue for another 1-2 hrs.
Showers in and west of the Laguna Mtns may survive into the
Imperial Valley between 02-07Z this evening, but confidence is too
low to include in the TAF. Additional shower chances are expected
Saturday afternoon, with a slight chance (20%) at KBLH, beginning
around 21Z, and lower chances at KIPL. The showers, and perhaps an
isolated storm, Saturday afternoon will be capable of producing W
to NW wind gusts up to 25 kts. Winds otherwise will remain light
at both terminals, aob 7 kts, through Saturday. Directions will
favor a W to NW at both terminals, with periods of variability.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday, with
lowest CIGs around 5-6K ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A low pressure system will result in an increase in the areal
coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms for today. The most
widespread activity is expected across south-central AZ. The
chances for showers will linger through the weekend into early
next week, however, the overall coverage will be significantly
less with the best chances confined mainly across the higher
terrain areas of northern and eastern AZ. MinRHs will be
significantly elevated today with values ranging between 30-50%
across the western districts to between 50-70% across the eastern
districts. Winds outside of any shower and thunderstorm activity
will remain generally light through next week. MinRHs will remain
elevated through the weekend but then gradually lower through next
week. Temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend
before warming to near to slightly above normal through next week.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
444 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...A weaker downslope wind event is expected overnight into
Saturday, primarily for portions of eastern Cache Valley and prone
areas near the terrain in eastern Davis/Weber County. Meanwhile,
closed low will continue to bring substantial snow to southern Utah
mountains, and potential for some lower elevation snow accumulations
across south central to southeast Utah as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...
* Key message 1: Setup remains favorable for another night of
moderate downslope winds in prone areas along the Northern Wasatch
Front and Eastern Cache Valley. With a weaker signal noted
overall, wind gusts are expected to fall generally within the 40-
55 mph range overnight into Saturday morning, with the highest
gusts likely in the Centerville to Park Lane and mouth of Weber
Canyon areas.
* Key message 2: A significant snow event will continue to unfold
across southern Utah through late Saturday. Snow levels will drop
overnight into early Saturday, and then increase through the day,
but periods of higher precipitation rates may help lower snow
levels at times. Additional snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches
are expected for the mountains west of US-89, and an additional 1
to 2 feet are expected for the mountains east of US-89 (locally up
to 3 feet). Further accumulations of around 4 to 8 inches are
possible for Capitol Reef and Bryce Canyon. Less certainty noted
at lower elevations, but a trace to up to 4 inches will be
possible for some lower elevation valleys/locations.
Forecast region continues to find itself under a somewhat
atypical pattern as a cutoff mid/upper level low continues to
churn in the Desert Southwest. In combination with a mid/upper
high making very minimal inland progression in the PacNW, deeper
layer flow atop the local forecast area remains primarily from an
easterly direction. 700mb flow this afternoon has been weaker than
that of yesterday, and as a result, haven`t seen as much in the
way of widespread gusts, and rather more some moderate lingering
gusts in locally favored downslope areas along the northern
Wasatch Front and eastern Cache Valley. Overnight into Saturday,
the ingredients for downsloping winds remain, albeit in a more
limited fashion. 700mb winds for example look to be more in the
25-40 kt range overnight. High resolution guidance shows this
potential accordingly, with downsloping winds ramping back up by
late evening, peaking near to a bit after sunrise, and then
diminishing by late morning into the afternoon. Best signal in
guidance is noted along the eastern Cache Valley, though given the
limited gusts with more favorable ingredients the prior night,
will say there is a bit of uncertainty in how strong and how long
gusty conditions last. Still, given the signal, opted to issue a
Wind Advisory, with most impacts likely remaining east of the
US-89/US-91 corridor. Aside from the eastern Cache Valley, the
signal once again looks favorable for areas near the terrain in
eastern Davis/Weber counties, particularly for the locally favored
areas near Park Lane and near the mouth of Weber Canyon.
Similarly, a Wind Advisory will persist overnight into Saturday.
Elsewhere in typical downslope prone locations along the northern
Wasatch Front, some gusty conditions are likely overnight, but
general consensus keeps magnitudes below advisory criteria. A
similar progression of winds is anticipated Saturday on into
Saturday night with downslope potential, but expect magnitudes to
be lower and likely remain at sub-advisory levels.
The cutoff low is also resulting in widespread precipitation
across southern Utah. Given the position of the low, a fetch of
Pacific moisture will continue to wrap around the low and promote
moist east/southeasterly upslope flow. Have even seen what appears
to be some embedded convective elements occasionally, helping
further increase precipitation rates at times today.
Low level temperatures continue to be one of the trickier
forecast elements of the system. Many locations seem to be
verifying much cooler than expected today, and 700mb temperatures
are also seemingly coming on the cooler side of guidance. This
(along with some rate driven enhancement) has forced snow levels
lower than expected today, and rather than see lower elevation
snow switch over to rain, have seen more lingering snow (or mix)
in areas that do not frequently see it. Even forcing snow levels
down to around the NBM`s 10th percentile doesn`t seem to be enough
to accurately handle the situation. As such, low confidence is
noted in the lower elevation p-type, but as much as snow levels
have struggled to increase during the day today, thinking we may
see a bit more snow than initially anticipated in some of the low
elevation areas of southern Utah before the event tapers off later
Saturday. While predicated in part on where the more focused band
of precipitation sets up, current forecast includes anywhere from
around a trace to quarter inch of snow in locations such as Kanab
and Hanksville, and potentially up to another 4 inches or so in
places like Escalante. Additionally, could see some accumulating
snow on the order of an inch or two along I-70 through the San
Rafael Swell... So in general those planning in travel through
southern Utah should be aware of the snow potential in less common
areas.
The next bit of uncertainty is in regards to where exactly and
how quickly the more focused band of precipitation sets up. This
will be dependent on how the cutoff low churns around the Desert
Southwest, and in turn where the better juxtaposition of
moisture/energy associated with the low end up. Currently this
feature seems to have set up from roughly the Lake Powell area
northwest through Escalante and nearby mountains. High resolution
guidance suggests a reasonable scenario would be seeing this band
gradually shift a bit more northward this evening into the
overnight, with a gradual pivot to a more east-west orientation as
it does so. That said, while some guidance sources such as the
HRRR keep a more cohesive band, others scatter it out a bit more.
Overall though, this will remain a feature to watch, as it could
result in some locally higher amounts where it manages to have
more residence time. Even then, outside of the more focused precip
band, will maintain a favorable environment for more scattered
(but still fairly widespread) showers. Mountains will continue to
do well (especially those east of US-89 given the more easterly
flow), and would anticipate a bit of locally higher amounts where
the more cohesive band pushes into the terrain.
Overall, by the events end, some of the more traveled areas of
places like Bryce Canyon and Capitol Reef could see snow totals in
the 4 to 8 inch range. The mountains will see continued
substantial snow accumulations snow throughout the remainder of
the event. Current forecast package includes an additional 1 to 2
feet for the mountains east of US-89, with locally up to 3 feet
possible. For the mountains west of US-89, forecast includes
additional accumulations of around 6 to 12 inches. Again, for
those with any travel plans through southern Utah, be sure to try
and check road conditions before heading out, and be prepared for
possible winter driving conditions.
Lighter and more scattered precipitation will linger through the
back half of Saturday on into the overnight hours Sunday, but
generally expect the event to gradually be winding down.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday)...
Generally minimal impacts to discuss in the long term portion of
the forecast the Rex Block pattern will persist into mid-next week,
with the model consensus generally wanting to break that pattern
down by mid to late next week as the low to our south is finally
kicked eastward as its picked up by the mean westerly flow again.
Beyond that, model confidence wanes, with generally some sort of
zonalish flow in place with about 50/50 ish probs of whether we`re
dominated by a downstream ridge axis, or closer to a trough
impinging on our western periphery.
As the cutoff low to our south continues to remain nearly
stationary, the precipitation and easterly winds aloft associated
with it will continue to weaken. This will result in only scattered
showers across southern Utah with minor QPF amounts. Given weak
forcing, most of these showers will be diurnally driven and
orographically forced. Conditions across northern Utah will run just
above average high temperature wise. In addition, some enhanced
easterly winds may pick up again Sunday morning as high pressure is
reinforced into SW Wyoming with the low to our south helping to
advect the cold air across the Wasatch from the east. The details on
this will matter for exact peak wind gust potential. For now
continue to advertise gusts in the 40-45 mph range for the typical
enhanced canyon wind / downslope prone locations.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR will persist for the KSLC terminal throughout
the period as conditions will remain dry with mostly clear skies.
Occasionally gusty northeast winds to around 20 knots will be
increasingly punctuated by period of lighter and more variable winds
as we move into the overnight hours, and especially by tomorrow
morning. This is thanks to continued downslope winds off the terrain
to the east, which will cause easterly cross winds when reaching the
terminal and otherwise, more lighter erratic wind directions when
the terminal gets into the back eddy from the mountain wave.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
for the northern half of the airspace with dry conditions and gusty
easterly downsloping winds increasing again tonight before
diminishing again tomorrow during the day. Southern and central Utah
will see low elevation rain and high elevation snow create MVFR/IFR
conditions throughout most of the day owing to a cutoff low across
the desert southwest. Additionally, winds will be
easterly/northeasterly across southern Utah with occasional gusts.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Wind Advisory until noon MDT Saturday for UTZ104.
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT Saturday for
UTZ107.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ117-125-127-
129.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ128.
WY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Church
AVIATION...Church
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity