Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/13/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1020 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- DOUBLE DIGIT ANOMALOUS WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
DECREASING NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY, 5 DEGREES
THROUGH FRIDAY, & 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK
- TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT PARKS ITSELF FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THURSDAY, PROVIDING STRONG GRADIENT
IN RHS & TEMPERATURES
- MULTI-PRECIPITATION TYPES REACH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THUNDER IN NORTHEAST IOWA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2024
ONGOING OBSERVATIONS & NOW TO NEAR TERM IMPACTS:
MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM METARS, SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND DERIVED
SATELLITE PRODUCTS HAVE EXHIBITED A FEW NOTEWORTHY CHARACTERS
WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. UTILIZING A SYNOPTIC "TOP-
DOWN" APPROACH, UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR (GOES IMAGERY) LOOPS
SHOW TWO PERTURBATIONS, OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, PASSING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS NORTHERN PERTURBATION HAS BEEN PUSHING THE LOCALLY HIGHER
HEIGHTS SOUTH, ADVECTING THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS SOUTH THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS (GOES DERIVED) RESPONSIBLE FOR ADVECTING THIS
PERTURBATION EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS ALSO
LIFTING AND WEAKENING THE SOUTHERLY STREAM. AN UPSTREAM PV
ANOMALY (RAP ANALYSIS/GOES IMAGERY) ALONG THE 1.5 PV SURFACE HAS
SHOWN THE CONTINUAL SEPARATION AND WEAKENING OF THIS "S"-SHAPED
ANOMALY FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.
GOES-DERIVED WINDS AND RAP POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES SHOW A
WEAKENING AND FILLING THIS FOLD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
LIFTING RAP DERIVED PRESSURE VALUES BACK INTO THE UPPER-MOST
LEVELS. COMPARING ALL OF THESE UPPER LEVEL OBSERVATIONS TO
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, THE SURFACE LOW TRUDGING THROUGH KANSAS IS
BECOMING MORE STACKED, WEAKENING AND LOSING ITS OVERALL PIZAZZ.
LOCAL IMPACTS STEM FROM THE ATTACHED MOISTURE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING THROUGH IOWA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
CONFLUENCE WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ANTICYCLONE HAS ADVECTED THE 40 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM INTO
EASTERN WISCONSIN, COMPARED TO THE 20 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM IN
WESTERN WISCONSIN.
SURFACE FRONT, TEMPERATURES, & MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE WEAKENING OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND ASSOCIATED FILLING OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL LEAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRANDED FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT THERE`S QUITE A VARIATION IN RHS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY, LOW TEENS IN MINNESOTA TO 30S IN FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE RECENT TREND OF 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY (100% CONFIDENCE --
GEFS/EPS). GIVEN THE PERSISTENT OVERACHIEVEMENT, HAVE SLIGHTLY
UPPED DAYTIME HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING THE 70 DEGREE
ISOTHERM GRAZING OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES AND THE 60 DEGREE
ISOTHERM IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
INITIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
SUBSEQUENT IMPACTFUL WEATHER (I.E., PRECIPITATION CHANCES) ORIGINATE
FROM THE RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING DRIVING A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE. LOCAL FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS THE
NORTHERN DRY AIR WILL GREATLY INHIBIT INITIAL ONSET AS WELL AS
NORTHERLY EXTENT. UNFORTUNATELY, PRECISE LOCATION OF THIS
SURFACE LOW HAS DECREASED IN BOTH THE EPS & GEFS OVER RECENT
RUNS. MOST RECENT RUN (12.12Z) FORMS THE SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW SPREAD INCREASES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FROM EASTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. I
REPEATEDLY MENTION IT BECAUSE THE BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT LOW
LOCATION WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION TYPE. AN
EXTRA FORECAST DETAIL WILL BE A ZONAL AXIS OF DILATATION THAT
WILL FURTHER ENFORCE THE MERIDIONAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF THE LOW. FINE DETAIL TO PAY ATTENTION AS FORECAST HOUR
DECREASES.
THE FASTER SOLUTION IN THE GEFS INTRODUCES 100% CONFIDENCE FOR
0.01"+ OF QPF LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE THE EPS DELAYS
TILL THURSDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRINKING ZONE
REINFORCES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, CREATING INCREASED FORECAST
DIFFICULTY WITH NORTHERLY ADVECTION OF PRECIPITATION (I.E.,
ONSET) INTO THE STOUT DRY AIR MASS. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND MODEL TRENDS, HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED HIGHER POPS
UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR A TIGHT GRADIENT OF HIGHER STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75" TO 1" WHERE THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS CAN
PENETRATE LOCALLY, FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPES:
ALSO SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, HAVE INCREASED SNOW MENTION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE MOST
CONDUCIVE FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION. LONG TERM GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
CONFIDENCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A
PRIMARY AXIS OF NEAR AN INCH ALONG THE DEFORMATION BAND IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECT A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE ENHANCED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. IRREGARDLESS, THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SATURATION AND INCREASING LOBES OF
HEIGHTENED FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO THE MAIN BOWLING BALL OF THE
LOW WILL PROVIDE THUNDER CHANCES ALONG OUR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AGAIN, THE SHUNT AND ONGOING COMBAT
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN DRY AIR AND SOUTHERN MOIST AIR LIMITS
CONFIDENCE AND EXPECTED NORTHERN EXTENT.
COOLING TREND INTO & THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTHEAST, DRAGGING A COLDER AIRMASS
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES REDUCE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIPPING THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION IN
LONG TERM GLOBAL ENSEMBLE 100% CONFIDENCE (EPS/GEFS).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
VFR conditions will likely continue through the TAF period with
periods of high clouds giving way to gradually lowering ceilings
by Wednesday evening. Shower chances begin to increase
especially by Wednesday evening (20-40% chance), but dry air may
impede much more than sprinkles reaching the ground with any
initial showers. Higher rain chances and any MVFR/IFR flight
restrictions likely will hold off until beyond this TAF period.
Winds will become easterly up to around 10 kts on Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2024
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEN SAGGING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IS CAUSING RAPID DRYING WITH RHS DECREASING INTO THE LOW TEENS TO
LOW 20S FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT REMAIN NEAR AND UNDER
20 MPH. OTHERWISE, THIS MOISTURE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY STAGNANT LOCALLY WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT, A
INCREASED GRADIENT IN RHS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF WHERE
THIS BOUNDARY LIES, RHS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 20S.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DRIER AREA TO BE FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FARTHER SOUTH, FROM
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, THE MORE MOIST AIR
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RHS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 30%.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2024
MODERATE MIXING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST HAS SLIGHTLY TEMPERED
TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASED MIXING. TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED
TO INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY
TIEING BOTH DAYTIME HIGH RECORDS AT LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER.
PROBABILITY FOR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES DECREASES BELOW
10% ON WEDNESDAY OWING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
TODAY WEDNESDAY
LOCATION FORECAST / RECORD FORECAST / RECORD
-----------------------------------------------------------
LA CROSSE 72 / 74 (1990) 68 / 71 (2015)
ROCHESTER 67 / 67 (1990) 65 / 66 (2012)
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...JAR
CLIMATE...JAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1005 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm temperatures again Wednesday cooling to
seasonably warm on Thursday. A brief rebound on Friday
followed by near average temperatures for the weekend.
- 20 percent chance of light rain or freezing rain mainly along
and north of Highway 2 later this afternoon, through tonight,
and lingering into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, mostly dry
through the remainder of the week.
- Windy conditions are expected to develop Friday and persist
through at least Saturday, possibly into Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
We are still not seeing any clear evidence of precipitation
reaching the ground yet across the north (where the strongest
radar echoes have been observed) but we did see some brief
drizzle at a site in McLean county north of Coleharbor in the
past hour. Will continue to hold onto a low chance of light rain
and/or freezing rain across the north central and northeast
through much of the night. While dewpoint spreads have come down
significantly here, ceilings are still rather high in the 6 to 9
kft range, suggesting there is still plenty of dry air in the
lower layers.
.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
We continue to see some light radar echoes and some modestly
lowering ceilings across the north but still have yet to see
evidence that any precipitation is making it`s way to the
ground. Will maintain slight chances of light rain for now as
the HRRR has become a bit more aggressive with bringing some
showery activity into the northwest and north central over the
next few hours. For now, no major changes were needed. We just
blended in the latest observations to the going forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
A passing shortwave will bring around a 20 percent chance of
light precipitation, mainly along and north of Highway 2, later
this afternoon through tonight. It looks like this will be mostly
in the form of rain or freezing rain. Models have continued to
back off on duration and impacts from this. Plus one limiting
factor for impacts is that hourly temperatures concurrent with
ongoing precipitation tend to only drop a degree or two below
freezing. This may help limit any ice accumulations on surfaces.
That said, it only takes a light glaze of freezing rain to
create hazardous travel conditions.
Beyond today, expect cooler air to filter into the area resulting in
a gradual cooling trend through Thursday. Temperatures then rebound
a bit for Friday before a cold front brings even cooler air to the
area for this weekend. Even with this cooler air, temperatures
are expected to only drop to around average for this time of
year.
With that cold frontal passage, fairly strong CAA looks to
produce windy conditions in the northwest Friday afternoon,
which will expand across the forecast area Saturday. Breezy
winds may linger into Sunday. Beyond this weekend, ensembles
hint at dry conditions and a warming trend for early next week.
That said, wide ranges in ensemble temperature spreads suggest
low confidence in the forecast for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
VFR conditions should prevail for most areas through the period.
The one exception may be the north central and KMOT where we
could see some MVFR ceilings move in by Wednesday morning. There
is also a slight chance for some light rain or freezing rain
across the north central tonight. While Minot could see a few
drops, confidence remains to low to include any precipitation
in the site specific forecast at this time.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
644 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Some model guidance continues to indicate some limited potential for
isolated convection across portions of the CWA tonight. With steep
mid level lapse rates of greater than 7 C/km, sufficient moisture,
and another shortwave moving through the CWA, slight chance POPs are
in order for portions of Zapata and Starr counties this evening.
Consistent HRRR runs have shown isolated Sierra Madre convection
firing up in the next few hours and some of this possibly affecting
Starr and Zapata counties early this evening. Further east...there
may be a weak shower or sprinkle or two from residual moisture as
the initial shortwave moves quickly through the area. Otherwise,
dry conditions are expected through Wed night as the overall
moisture profile diminishes with some weak ridging aloft noted
albeit for a brief time before southwesterly flow aloft
reestablishes itself. More sunshine and persistent increasing
southerly flow will warrant a warming trend through the period. In
fact, high temperatures on Wed should average 6-10 degrees above
normal for mid March. Each overnight and morning period will have
abundant low clouds but these will tend to burn off faster on Wed
with the drier tropospheric profile and better mixing.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
The long term period begins with a 500mb closed low digging into
the Desert Southwest. This low looks to break from the main
circulation on Friday, and remain largely in place through the
weekend. This will support upper level southwesterly flow over
Deep South Texas through the period.
At the surface, a low pressure system looks to develop over the
Texas Panhandle on Thursday before traveling northeast towards the
Great Lakes. The cold front associated with this system looks to
move into Central Texas by Friday afternoon, and finally reaching
Deep South Texas Saturday night into Sunday morning.
A series of pressure perturbations will likely move through the
southwesterly flow aloft through the period. The first of these
looks to enhance a leeward low pressure off the Sierra Madre on
Thursday, tightening pressure gradients across Deep South Texas.
This will likely result in breezy southeasterly winds late
Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, especially along the
coast and the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Winds are expected to die
down Thursday night as the low weakens. The southeasterly flow
will continue to bring warmer temperatures and low level moisture
Friday, leading to increased instability. Combined with some weak
forcing from another pressure perturbation, there is a slight
chance (~20-30%) for some isolated convection over western
portions of the CWA Friday night, and northern portions Saturday.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
night through Sunday with the passage of the cold front. Behind
the front Sunday night some elevated convection is possible, but
as instability continues to decrease, light stratiform rain
becomes more likely going into Monday as an overrunning pattern
sets up. There is some uncertainty in the timing of the front, and
the distribution of precipitation along and behind it. Models are
in better agreement this run on the timing of the front, but
still differ on the rain chances associated with it. For now, rain
chances will stay between 20-30% across most of Deep South Texas
Saturday night through Monday.
High temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s across most of
the CWA Thursday and Friday, with areas along the cost remaining
slightly cooler, in the mid 80s. Increased cloud cover Saturday
will likely keep highs in the mid to upper 80s. Behind the cold
front, High temperatures Sunday look to be in the mid to upper
70s, with continued cooling dropping high temperatures into the
upper 60s to low 70s Monday and Tuesday. Likewise, low
temperatures ahead of the front are expected to be in the upper
60s to low 70s, falling to the 50s to low 60s by Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Ceilings expected to gradually lower this evening with MVFR
prevailing at all three regional airports overnight and into
Wednesday morning. There is a medium to high probability of
temporarily ceilings lowering to IFR around sunrise which is
worked into KHRL and KMFE TAFs where probability is highest.
Ceilings to lift mid to late Wednesday morning with most clouds
clearing west to east Wednesday afternoon. Winds decouple a few
hours after sunset with light winds overnight. Southerly winds
increase Wednesday as low pressure deepens over the Southern
Plains. Wind gusts averaging around 25 knots are expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Tonight through Wednesday night...A slowly increasing southerly
gradient and slowly building seas will prevail through the period.
On Wed night, sufficiently higher dewpoints around 70 degrees
coupled with the SSTs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees will
produce at least some patchy sea fog across portions of the Laguna
Madre and adjacent nearshore waters. The cooler nearshore waters
will likely translate into slightly lower winds given the added
stability. No flags are expected through the short term as the
gradient will not be quite that strong during the short-term
forecast period.
Thursday through next Tuesday...Tightening pressure gradients
Thursday, as the result of low pressure developing along the
Sierra Madre Mountains, will support stronger southeasterly winds
Thursday afternoon. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines
or Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for the Laguna
Madre and nearshore Gulf waters Thursday. Conditions look to
improve Thursday night, with light to moderate winds and moderate
seas continuing through Sunday. The passage of a cold front Sunday
morning will bring a northeasterly wind shift, as well as the
potential for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the remainder of the period. Stronger winds and building
seas Monday may require Small Craft Advisories, but conditions
look to improve slightly Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 69 85 71 85 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 66 88 69 88 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 67 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 65 95 68 95 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 76 69 77 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 67 84 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...80-MB
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...59-GB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1052 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather danger potential for the Red Hills
Wednesday afternoon.
- Colder air starts to arrive on Thursday with a second round of
colder air on Sunday.
- Rain chances will mainly be along our northern border on
Wednesday and southern border Friday but most of the area
looks to stay dry for the next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
18Z observations show a departing 500 mb shortwave located in
central Kansas with a boundary layer low pressure center in
north central Kansas. The tight pressure gradient has led to
some gusty winds through the morning and early afternoon however
a surface high is developing in eastern Colorado and this should
subside the winds as we approach sunset tonight.
Overall for tonight the surface high will pass through western
Kansas keeping the winds light and variable for the start of the
night and then eventually switching to the southeast by morning.
Mid level clouds will be on the increase through the night as a
500-700 mb shortwave approaches from central Colorado. This
shortwave will also lead to developing a surface low and trough
in southeast Colorado. Lows will range from the lower to mid
40s.
Wednesday the main forecast challenge will be where the surface
low tracks and where the strongest southwest winds and driest
air sets up in the afternoon for the fire danger. HREF ensembles
and specifically the HRRR have the farthest north track which
would put the Red Hills in the stronger southwest winds by mid
to late afternoon and high fire danger between 1-6 PM. Other CAM
models such as the ARW and the latest NSSL have much lighter
winds with a more southern track of the surface low. While the
fire danger confidence is high in Oklahoma and Texas there is
still some uncertainty as to how high the fire danger will be in
the Red Hills due to the wind forecast. As a result a fire
weather watch is in effect and the next forecast update should
have better confidence if an upgrade is needed. Elsewhere north
of the low along the I-70 corridor will be socked in with clouds
for much of the morning with light drizzle possible. Clouds
should quickly erode by afternoon with the vicinity of the
surface low and warm front. Some CAMs have convection breaking
out between 21-00Z along and north of I-70 and with a 30% chance
of >750 CAPE and >30 kt shear I added thunder wording for areas
along the I-70 corridor. The better lift along the warm front
and 700 mb shortwave looks to be farther north into Goodland`s
and Hastings forecast zones. Highs will range from around 70 in
our north to northwest zones to the lower 80s in the Red Hills.
Wednesday night the surface to 850 mb low will be slow to
progress to the east so this should delay the stronger winds and
colder air from the cold front until closer to sunrise Thursday
morning. Rain chances will continue in the vicinity of the low
to the north and northwest which would put areas from Syracuse
to Hays in a slight chance of rain (20%). The better lift and
dynamics from the progged position of the low will be located in
northwest Kansas and northeast Colorado. Overnight temperatures
should fall into the low to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Cold air advection and strong winds will be the trend for
Thursday as the surface to 700 mb low moves into Iowa by late
afternoon. Long range ensemble all show 850 mb temps cooling
through the day and with cloudy skies we should see much diurnal
heating. Went NBM10th for highs for our northern and central
zones which would put us in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The far
southeast could see a little more sun and delayment of the
coldest air so they will be a bit warmer.
The main feature in the long term will be a cut off low in
Arizona and the main westerlies in the northern plains to Great
Lakes. A 700 mb shortwave will eject from the cut off low Friday
into early Saturday. The forecast track of the system will keep
the majority of the better lift in eastern New Mexico through
west Texas so only slight POPs of 20% will be possible in our
far southwest zones for Friday.
Rest of the long term should stay dry as the cut off low will
stay mainly in Arizona through next Monday and any ejection of
shortwaves will also stay to the south. Lower level winds will
also stay mainly out of the north to northwest so no real sign
of gulf moisture will come into Kansas. Sunday will have
another push of colder air as ensembles have a strong longwave
trough moving through the northern plains Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning. Outside of some gusty winds and colder
air the lack of moisture will keep us dry.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
VFR will continue through this TAF cycle, with varying amounts
of mid and high clouds. Through Wednesday, winds will be
relatively light, but highly variable in direction, as low
pressure swings through SW KS. SW gusts in excess of 20 kts are
most probable at LBL after 18z Wed behind the departing surface
low. Some models suggests showers and thunderstorms near HYS by
00z Thu, but with low confidence kept the HYS TAF dry for now.
Increasing N/NE winds are expected 06-12z Thu.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Elevated to near critical fire weather danger will be the case
during the afternoon on Wednesday for areas mainly south and
east of a Liberal to Dodge City to Larned line. Highest
probability of wind gusts over 25 mph and relative humidity
values falling to 15% or less will be along the Oklahoma border
from Meade to Barber counties between 1-6 PM. The winds will be
highly dependent on the track of a surface low moving through
northwest and north central Kansas and if the track is farther
south the winds will be much lighter.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for KSZ087>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Tatro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
727 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through early
this evening due to low humidities and gusty west winds.
- Precipitation chances arrive late Wednesday and last through
Friday morning. Precip likely to start as rain, then transition
to a mix of rain and snow or wet snow Thursday night. Overall
confidence is low.
- Temperatures begin a slight downward trend Thursday while still
remaining around 5 to 10 degrees above average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Wednesday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show shortwave
impulses across northern Minnesota and northwest Ontario pushing a
cold front across central Wisconsin early this afternoon. Because
of 0-1km dewpoint depressions in excess of 15C, this cold front
remains expected to pass through dry for the rest of today. Breezy
southwest winds are bringing temperatures into the lower to
middle 60s at most locations this afternoon, with a possible
record high at one or two locations. A few readings have reached
70 degrees early this afternoon. With temperatures this high and
drying fine fuels, humidity levels have fallen to around 25
percent over the sandy soil areas of north- central WI. With an
otherwise quiet weather through Wednesday, forecast concerns
mainly revolve around elevated fire weather conditions.
Sky Cover and Temperatures: The shortwaves will bring scattered
high clouds to the region for the rest of the afternoon into this
evening, before departing for a time tonight. Then more clouds are
expected to arrive from the west late overnight and thicken from
west to east on Wednesday afternoon. Winds will shift to the
northwest tonight and to the north on Wednesday and gradually
usher in a cooler airmass to the region. Temps on Wednesday will
be cooler, and mainly range from the middle 50s near the U.P.
border to the middle 60s over central WI.
Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
A cooler, more active pattern shift is expected for the extended
as two systems bring precip chances to the forecast area. The
first round of precip looks to arrive Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Precip type with this system will be tricky,
although temperature profiles are trending toward mainly rain with
the potential for some wet snow to mix in across east-central. A
weekend system will then bring a second round of rain/snow to the
forecast area, although there is still uncertainty in timing and
location of precip.
Wednesday night through Friday precip chances... As a closed
upper- level low sits and spins across the Four Corners region
Thursday and Friday, a piece of shortwave energy will eject up
from New Mexico into central Wisconsin. This shortwave will drag a
surface low and attendant warm front from the southern Plains
into northern Illinois, generating a baroclinic zone and
concurrent FGEN band across central Wisconsin Thursday evening.
Additional synoptic support will be provided by favorable
placement under the right entrance region of an upper- level jet.
Precip types/amounts will be a hindrance to the forecast given
model discrepancy about thermal profiles, specifically boundary
layer temperatures. The current NAM solution is running much
cooler than other short to medium-range models (RAP-ext and HRRR-
ext), and is hence more aggressive with snowfall amounts and
timing of rain/snow transition. The influence of Hudson Bay high
pressure and dry air over Ontario introduces additional
uncertainty about precip type and location given backing
north/northwesterly winds Friday morning, suggesting that there
may be a sharp cutoff in precip to the north. Precip type is
expected to start as mainly rain through Thursday afternoon before
a window of cooler temperatures arrives Friday morning, signaling
the potential for some wet snow to mix in across central and
east-central Wisconsin. Opted to leave NBM snow amounts given
warm ground/boundary layer temperatures paired with low likelihood
of precip rates high enough to accumulate snow at these
temperatures. Likewise decided to leave out freezing rain.
Additionally, the GFS picks up on a near- isothermal layer at 0
deg/C to around 850 mb, suggesting that any minor fluctuation of a
degree or two may affect precip type. Overall, thinking rain will
be the dominant precip type, although confidence is low. Most
convective elements will be confined to our south near the warm
front where highest MUCAPE and lapse rates are; have thus have
decided to leave out mention of thunder for the time being.
Rest of the extended... Next chances for precip enter the
forecast area Saturday morning as a more robust shortwave is
progged to drop south across the US/Canada border. There is still
model discrepancy about timing and location of precip this far
out, although cooler temperatures suggest higher potential for
snow to mix in this time around. Otherwise, temperatures begin a
slight downward trend starting Thursday while still remaining
around 5 to 10 degrees above average.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 726 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Wind gusts will
diminish early in the period, keeping light winds in the region
through tomorrow morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Elevated fire weather conditions will continue into early this
evening until winds subside and humidity increases with nocturnal
cooling setting in. Cooler temperatures and lighter sustained
winds under 10 kts will alleviate fire weather concerns some on
Wednesday, but afternoon minimum humidities will again fall to the
25 to 30 pct range west of the Fox Valley and Bayshore areas.
Fine fuels continue to dry out as evident by increasing FFMC
values to around 90. Will continue to highlight fire weather
conditions in the HWO.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC/Goodin
AVIATION.......Uhlmann
FIRE WEATHER...MPC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1141 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds diminish tonight with a warming trend Wednesday into
Thursday. Waves of low pressure will cross New England Thursday
night and Friday bringing snow showers to the mountains and rain
showers south of the mountains. Saturday looks to be break in
systems before a trough develops over the Great Lakes and additional
systems approach early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
11:40pm Update... Just a quick update to match with obs and
trends so far this evening. Winds continue to ease with many
locations quickly becoming light to calm. Temps are expected to
begin dropping below freezing soon after the wind subsides.
Overall the forecast remains on track.
9:10pm Update... Wind gusts continue to gradually ease at this
hour in some spots, with gusts continuing to die off elsewhere
through the evening as a ridge of high pressure builds across
New England. Temps are expected to drop more later tonight as
the winds die off and skies remain mostly clear. A few high
clouds begin to work into southwestern NH toward daybreak, and a
few high clouds also rotate through eastern areas overnight as
low pressure remains centered across the Canadian Maritimes.
Overall no notable changes with this update as the forecast
remains on track.
A short wave ridge builds into the area tonight as low pressure east
of Nova Scotia continues to drift into the North Atlantic. Gusty NW
winds will diminish this evening with sheltered locations likely to
see winds go calm later tonight. Mostly clear skies and light winds
will allow for radiational cooling and have incorporated MOS guidance
into tonight`s low temperature forecast. Lows will generally be in
the upper 20s to low 30s while favorable radiational cooling spots
will drop to around 20 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak wave will slide east across southern Quebec Wednesday with a
modest warm air advection regime setting up over the area. Skies
will start off mostly clear with increasing clouds through the
afternoon. The majority of model solutions keep the forecast area
dry during the day Wednesday while the more bullish HRRR brings
scattered showers into the area Wednesday afternoon. I have hedged
toward the HRRR for PoPs Wednesday afternoon as there are some other
HREF members that suggest there could be some isolated rain showers
with a mix of rain and snow showers in the mountains. Highs will
range from the 40s north to 50s south and with winds turning onshore
during the afternoon, coastal areas will be a few degrees cooler
than the interior.
There will continue to be chances for isolated rain and snow showers
Wednesday night as the weak wave treks across the St Lawrence. Skies
will be mostly cloudy with lows in the upper 20s to the mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
------------------------------------------------------------------
Summary:
*Scattered rain and mountain snow showers possible from
Thursday, with more widespread precipitation in the forecast
for Friday.
*Rain and mountain snow likely to continue through the weekend,
and into early next week.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Discussion:
Thursday will likely be the nicest day in the extended forecast with
partly cloudy skies, light winds and above average temperatures
in the forecast. There is a real possibility high temperatures
could exceed 60F in southern NH for the first time since last
Autumn.
However, weather patterns for this weekend suggest a return of
colder temperatures, with some rain and snow expected. An
upper-level low will move down from Canada, bringing a much
cooler airmass and several bouts of precipitation with it.
Generally speaking, more precipitation will fall as rain along
the coast and in southern NH, while more snow is expected up
north and in the mountains. Guidance still has not been doing
the best job resolving these repeated systems, but a weak
impulse should bring a few periods of precipitation Friday and
finally exit the region later in the morning Saturday.
The remainder of Saturday should stay mostly dry, and Sunday morning
looks to be the same. Sunday night, a low moves close to New
England, bringing more precipitation chances early next week.
Generally, temperatures near the climatological average are
expected through most of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR prevails tonight through Wednesday. Surface
winds continue to relax this evening while low level winds will
remain strong, bringing potential for LLWS across most
terminals south of the mountains through about 06Z. Clouds
increase Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night while cigs
look to remain above MVFR thresholds.
Long Term...
Partly cloudy skies will bring VFR across the region Thursday.
Rain and snow move into the area Thursday night, bringing MVFR
to IFR CIGs to TAF sites. Intermittent periods of restrictions
are possible this weekend as scattered rain and snow showers
move through the region. Light and variable winds are expected
through the remainder of the week and into the start of the
weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Northwest winds continue to ease tonight while
gusts will still bring SCA conditions. Winds shift out of the SE
Wednesday with winds and seas remaining below SCA thresholds
through Wednesday night.
Long Term...
Light winds Thursday increase out of the northeast by Friday,
with SCA winds and seas unlikely. Light northeast winds
continue through the day Saturday, then increase out of the
south heading into Sunday. SCA level winds and seas are then
possible on Sunday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150>152-
154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Palmer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
643 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Latest 500mb RAP analysis reveals a trough and associated speed max
making landfall over northern California. This feature rapidly digs
and translates southern AZ/NM by tomorrow afternoon, setting up a
dry and windy day tomorrow. Outside of some gusts across southeast
New Mexico, today/tonight remains fairly quaint compared to tomorrow
with warm and dry conditions currently observed. As the
aforementioned trough draws near tomorrow, it brings a corresponding
700mb speed max of 30-40kts across Southeast New Mexico and into the
north-central Permian Basin. Aside from a few late-afternoon cirrus
building out west, clear skies will lead to efficient heating and
the boundary layer should mix close to the 700mb speed max and
breezy to gusty west winds will be the result tomorrow afternoon.
The higher elevations out west will be able to mix down stronger
winds and the classic mountain wave signature across the Guadalupes
leads to the strongest wind gusts near 70-75 mph. As a result, have
upgraded to a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains for
tomorrow, as well as issued a Wind Advisory for the adjacent plains
of Eddy/Culberson counties and north-central Lea County where the
southern edge of the Sacramento Mtns. horseshoe vortex stretches. As
a result of the strong winds, the warm and dry downsloping winds
send temperatures well into the upper 70s/low 80s tomorrow
afternoon, with RHs as low as 8-12 percent. Critical fire weather
conditions are likely and a Red Flag Warnings has been issued...for
more details, see the Fire Weather Discussion below. With diurnal
mixing ceasing and a shortwave ejects from the main upper trough,
wind relax for Wednesday night.
-Munyan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Thursday, the upper trough is forecast to be over SoCal/Arizona,
leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under progressive
southwest flow aloft. Decreasing thicknesses w/the approach of the
trough and a weaker westerly downslope component will shave a couple
of degrees off Wednesday`s highs, but highs should come in ~ 5F
above normal nevertheless.
Unfortunately, a cold front arrives Thursday night, w/the latest NAM
buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF at around 01Z Friday.
Previous model runs had the front about 12 hours faster, so this
slower solution will keep Thursday`s highs unblemished. As the front
moves into the area, convection will develop NW-SE, w/the LREF
suggesting thunder over the east in better instability.
Friday, CAA continues as the front works south. The front now looks
strong enough for high gap winds through KGDP, and we`ll mention
this in the HWO. POPs for Friday have increased substantially over
the last couple of model runs, especially along and east of the
Pecos, but QPF is still paltry. Looking at the LREF, NBM may be a
little too bullish on thunder in the east. If the thunder doesn`t
pan out, this may explain the meager QPF. Highs Friday afternoon
look to come in ~ 11-13F below normal.
Unfortunately, the aforementioned trough is forecast to remain over
the southwest CONUS in some form or fashion through the extended,
preventing temperatures from recovering from this first cold front.
To make matters worse, a secondary front is forecast around Sunday
night, keeping highs below normal. The only upside is increased
chances of precipitation and decreased fire weather concerns. Even
w/such low QPF, beggars can`t be choosers, and the region will take
what it can get.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
VFR conditions will prevail across all area terminals through
14/00Z. Gusty southwest winds will diminish within an hour of
sunset, but pick up again with gusts approaching 25-35 knots
around the 16-18Z time frame Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Wednesday, the LLTR is still forecast to extend from Chihuahua up
through Southeast New Mexico to the Panhandles. What`s notable on
today`s runs is that the 500mb jet max will intersect this feature a
little farther south than 24 hours ago. While temperatures
Wednesday afternoon will be only 6-8F above normal, relative
humidity during the afternoon is expected to go critical everywhere
but the Guadalupes. This will result in RFTIs 1-2 Southeast New
Mexico plains to 5 in the Presidio Valley. However, 20-ft winds
will drive this event. 20-ft winds are forecast to increase
substantially Wednesday afternoon as a mountain wave develops in the
Guadalupes, increasing RFTIs to 4-5 from Southeast New Mexico south
to the Davis Mountains. This will ultimately yield MaxRFTI of 4 or
better over Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas
down to the Davis Mountains. While ERCs remain below the 75th
percentile, and fuels are sparse outside of the Davis Mountains,
conditions will still be favorable for rapid fire spread, should a
fire get going. We`ll issue a warning for the above-mentioned
areas, and extend it out into the Western Low Rolling Plains to
match up w/the SGPWO outlook.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 50 83 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 48 78 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 49 87 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 52 85 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 48 67 46 67 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 46 78 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 38 75 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 49 81 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 50 81 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 46 83 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ Wednesday for Andrews-Borden-Davis Mountains-Davis
Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-
Gaines-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-
Martin-Midland-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler.
High Wind Warning from 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Eastern
Culberson County.
NM...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Chaves
Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
Mountains.
High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.
Wind Advisory from noon to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for Central Lea
County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...70
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1122 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated wildfire potential through this evening for the
interior west half of Upper Michigan.
- Not as warm for the middle to end of the week, but still above
normal
- A significant pattern change will result in near to
below normal temperatures with lake effect snow Sunday into
early next week
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024
RAP analysis shows a mid level shortwave over northwestern Ontario
and an associated sfc trough extending from northwestern Ontario
down through Upper Michigan. WV imagery shows mid to high level
clouds ahead of shortwave over Lake Superior and the eastern U.P. As
these features progress eastward the rest of today into tonight, the
cloud cover will track east with them, yielding mostly sunny skies
for most of the U.P. this afternoon. Current sfc obs show the cold
front has already made it about half way across the U.P., located
over the eastern side of Menominee and Marquette Counties, and is
expected to continue working its way eastward across the U.P.
through early this evening. NW to WNW winds are expected behind the
boundary.
Mostly clear skies and good mixing is yielding another day
with well above normal temps. Highs this afternoon are expected in
the 50s in the Keweenaw, eastern U.P., and near Lake Superior.
Interior west and central Upper Michigan should see temps climb into
the 60s with a low probability (<25%) of a few spots in south
central exceeding 70! With dew points dropping into the low to mid
20s over the west half and low to mid 30s over the east, min RHs
should drop to around 20-25% over the interior west half of the U.P.
The east/Keweenaw will bottom out around 35-45%. With mixing already
yielding gusts up to 20mph, wildfire potential is elevated through
early this evening. Avoid any outdoor burning today.
Tonight, northwesterly winds will lighten up as mixing diminishes.
Mostly clear skies will become partly cloudy late tonight ahead of a
shortwave progressing eastward through northern Ontario; dry weather
persists as model soundings show a significant dry layer in the mid
to low levels. Temps will continue above normal with lows only
settling in the upper 20s to mid 30s with the warmest temps near the
lakeshores.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Midlevel heights will remain higher than normal Wed/Thu, but
confluent flow will promote a ridge of high pressure building toward
the local area from the north. This will result in cooler northerly
flow modified further by the cold Lake Superior. So while
temperatures will still be well above normal, they will be cooler
Wednesday relative to Thursday, especially near Lake Superior where
they are likely to remain in the 40s. Some lower cloud cover may be
around over northern parts of the UP as well, especially in the
morning. Parts of the interior west could still make a run at 60
though, and are likely to be mostly sunny for much of the day.
On Thursday, a sheared-out shortwave will eject out of the base of a
deep trough in the Desert Southwest and track northeastward through
the central Plains. Moisture advection and frontogenesis are likely
to bring stratiform precipitation to the north and east of the low`s
track over WI and lower MI. Meanwhile, high pressure over southern
Canada should continue to drain a dry airmass at low levels into the
area. The result is likely to be a relatively sharp cutoff in the
precip shield on the north edge. PoPs were reduced a bit on the
north edge relative to the NBM as 12Z deterministic guidance has
relatively good consensus in keeping measurable precip south of
the UP, except for perhaps the Menominee area where PoPs are
maximized at around 50. It should be cooler still with a lot of
mid/high clouds around. Highs near Lake Superior in the mid to
upper 30s; low to mid-40s elsewhere. Temps look similar with a
quiet day expected Friday as the low tracks off to the east and
low-level northerly flow continues.
The weather looks more active Saturday onward. An anomalous midlevel
ridge will build over the Canadian Rockies, which will force
troughing over the western Great Lakes. A strong shortwave Saturday
is likely to usher in a much colder airmass for Sunday into early
next week. Light rain and snow showers are likely to accompany the
trough on Saturday, with gusty winds behind the associated cold
front later Saturday onward. 850 mb temps falling to -10 to -15C
Sunday/Monday should generate accumulating lake effect snow showers
for the N/NW belts.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024
As a ridge of high pressure builds across Lake Superior, winds will
remain less than 20 kt through Wednesday night. Northeasterly winds
will increase Thursday over the western arm of the lake with gusts
of 20-25 kt expected. Looking ahead, southwesterly winds will
increase Friday night into Saturday ahead of a low pressure system
with gusts of 20-30 kt possible. Behind this system, strong
northerly winds are possible with cold advection resulting in
unstable conditions over the waters Sunday into early next week.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...07
MARINE...Thompson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
922 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Isolated supercell, currently tracking southeast into southwest
MO this evening, should begin to slowly weaken as storm moves
into a more stable air-mass over the next hour or two. Therefore,
overall severe threat for northwest Arkansas should remain low
(less than 5 percent). Some minor changes to PoPs with update,
mainly to remove across NE OK, otherwise, forecast on track in
the short term.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Much of the area will see zonal flow aloft this evening with the
passage of a shortwave trough. This disturbance may or may not
produce a thunderstorm or two across the far northeast OK corner and
far northwest AR corner late this evening. Some models even show an
isolated storm or two trek from west to east across the I-40
corridor after midnight tonight. However, the HRRR and the RAP
remained dry as low level moisture appears to remain limited until
later tomorrow. Also, a cap appears to remain in place around H8.
Due to the low confidence have reduced NBM PoPs below 15 for this
area.
Tomorrow is looking mostly dry as far as precipitation goes. Tds
will be on the rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow
afternoon as a leeside low develops over the OK Panhandle. Surface
winds should pick back up into the 15 to 20 mph range in the
afternoon as the pressure gradient steepens with the approaching
low. Moisture advection is progged to occur throughout the column
with the approaching upper level trough and associated southwest
flow aloft. Chances return after 7 PM tomorrow evening with 20 to 30
PoPs int the western FA with a psuedo dryline forming. Thunderstorms
may become strong to severe as well with this set up with the
possiblity of large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes are not
expected with these storms. However, the chances are not nil. Later
into tomorrow night 30 PoPs shift east into far eastern OK and
western AR.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
The active weather pattern with daily thunderstorm chances will
continue into Thursday across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Severe thunderstorms will once again be possible during
the late afternoon through the evening hours. Large hail and
damaging winds look to be the primary hazards, but a tornado cannot
be ruled out. Cooler temperatures are forecast this weekend into
early next week with highs right around average.
On Thursday morning, model guidance continues to show a broad H500
trough across much of the central CONUS extending westward towards
the Rockies. The center of the H500 low is forecast to be near the
southern tip of Nevada by late Thursday with southwesterly flow
across the CWA. Southerly surface winds should allow plenty of
moisture to remain across portions of the area, with an emphasis on
areas southeast of Interstate 44, which should remain to the east of
a dryline during the afternoon hours. Lift provided by the surface
boundary and a shortwave trough should be enough to generate another
round of showers and thunderstorms. The 12/12z LREF probabilities
are showing a 70 percent or higher chance for CAPE values to reach
or exceed 1500 J/kg during the afternoon into early evening hours.
If thunderstorms form in this favorable environment, they could
become severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary
hazards. The potential for a tornado is low at this time, but cannot
be ruled out. Additionally, PWAT values around 1.25 inches are
expected which would bring a threat for heavy rainfall with any
storms that form as well. Some storms may linger across the
southeastern portion of the CWA through the overnight hours before a
southward moving cold front pushes the storms east of the
region early on Friday.
Cooler and more stable air will move in behind the cold front on
Friday through early next week across the region. There is a low end
potential for some showers for southeastern Oklahoma on Friday and
Saturday. A few rumbles of thunder are possible but severe weather
appears unlikely at this time. Cooler, near average, highs are
expected this weekend into early next week with temperatures in the
upper 50s to 60s. A secondary cold front moves through on Sunday
which will bring in a bit cooler air for Monday and a few locations
may even drop down to freezing on Monday and Tuesday mornings.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Isolated thunderstorms will have the potential (20% chance) to impact
KXNA and KROG during the first couple of hours of the valid period
this evening. Added a VCTS to these TAFs to reflect this potential.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated until around 12z when MVFR
ceilings are expected to start affecting area sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 55 78 62 80 / 10 10 30 50
FSM 56 77 63 81 / 10 10 40 70
MLC 59 77 63 79 / 10 0 20 60
BVO 47 79 57 80 / 0 10 30 30
FYV 54 75 58 79 / 10 10 40 60
BYV 56 76 60 79 / 20 10 30 50
MKO 56 76 62 79 / 10 10 30 60
MIO 54 77 60 77 / 20 10 30 50
F10 58 77 62 78 / 10 10 20 60
HHW 59 75 63 79 / 10 10 30 70
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...12
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10