Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/12/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1121 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm through Wednesday with warmth peaking on Tuesday.
Slow cooling thereafter, but still above normal through the
end of the week.
- No precipitation expected until late week.
- A significant pattern change will result in predominantly
below normal temperatures next week, but temperatures likely
won`t stray far from normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024
Current RAP analysis and WV imagery show a mid level shortwave over
northern Ontario, just north of Lake Superior, and the mid level
ridge centered over MN. This ridge shifts east into the Upper Great
Lakes through tonight. With WAA from low level southwest flow and
plenty of sunshine, the CWA has warmed up quickly today as 850mb
temps warmed to around 4-6C over the west and 1-3C over the east.
With good mixing up to ~3-4kft, temps should continue to climb well
above normal. Highs are expected in the mid to upper 50s for much of
the U.P. save for the Keweenaw and east where highs late this
afternoon will be in the upper 40s; some low 60s are possible in the
interior west. Mixing has also brought down the drier air mass
aloft, bringing dewpoints into the low to mid 20s save for near Lake
Michigan/eastern U.P. where upper 20s to low 30s have been observed.
Although min RHs this afternoon over the west are expected around 20-
25%, 25-30% in the Keweenaw, and 30-40% in the east, no major fire
weather concerns are expected as winds stay light.
Mid to upper level clouds will increase ahead of a mid level
shortwave riding northeast along the ridge, but dry weather will
prevail as model soundings show a significant dry layer in the low
to mid levels. With partly to mostly cloudy skies over the west and
clearer skies over the east, expect min temps in the upper 20s to
mid 30s with coldest temps in the east.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024
The unseasonable warmth will continue early in the extended period
followed by a return to more seasonable weather next week. First,
mid-level ridging will break down by Tuesday afternoon as a
shortwave moves through Upper Michigan. Meanwhile, a 1004mb surface
low will push strong WAA over the forecast area ahead of the
aforementioned wave. This will result in high temperatures topping
off near 70 degrees at Iron Mountain and low to mid 60s across much
of the interior west and central combined with RH values less than
30%. This will result in borderline elevated fire conditions across
much of Iron, Dickinson, Menominee, and southern Marquette Counties
on Tuesday. Despite the dry air/lack of precip, winds under 15 mph
will help to mitigate the fire threat.
Tuesday night, an associated cold front will sweep across Upper
Michigan, but will continue toward a dry forecast without any
precipitation chances in the CAMs. The dry weather will persist
through Wednesday, too, but temperatures will be a bit cooler in the
wake of the cold front (still well above normal though). Daytime
highs Wednesday are projected to top off in the mid 50s across the
interior west/central and southern MI/WI border.
Thurday, the chance of precipitation will return to the forecast as
the next surface low approaches from the central Plains. There will
be an uptick in Pops across the far south early Thursday morning,
gradually overspreading central and eastern portions of the forecast
area through the day. Ptype will generally be in the form of rain
across the south, but some snow showers will start to mix in the
farther north the forcing extends. It won`t be until the weekend
though when a Clipper system brings better precip chances, mainly in
the Saturday to Sunday time frame. And, as 850 mb temperatures fall
in the wake of the system, LES chances will increase across the NNW
wind snowbelts through Monday. High temperatures Thursday
through Saturday will generally be in the 40s with a return to
the 30s by Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will hold steady in
the 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals throughout the duration
of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024
Winds will remain at or below 20 knots and waves will be below 3
feet through the week with the region under ridging and any
disturbances outside of the area. The next chance for winds above
20 knots and waves above 4 feet will be this weekend when an Alberta
Clipper system passes through the region. Southwesterly winds
Friday night will gradually veer to the west and eventually
northwest through the course of the weekend.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TDUD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
617 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Red Flag Warning in effect north of I-70 until 7 PM.
- Elevated fire weather across parts of central KS Tuesday
afternoon, followed by low (15-20%) chance of storms in far east
central KS
- Staying warm into mid-week with increasing chances for showers and
storms Wednesday night into Thursday
- Becoming cooler late this week into next weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024
Water vapor imagery at 19Z indicates a weak upper wave
near the Red River valley has been dissipating as it heads toward
Arkansas. This keeps upper ridging dominant over our area for the
time being ahead of a troughing pattern over the western US.
Deepening lee sfc trough has led to a tightening pressure gradient
in the forecast area with gusty south-southwesterly winds bringing
warm temperatures for early March in the low 70s. While winds should
somewhat decrease overnight, the pressure gradient doesn`t look to
relax much and should keep breezy conditions through the nighttime
hours. Lows are forecast to be mild in the 40s area-wide.
The sfc low is progged to move across the area Tuesday, resulting in
decreasing winds into the afternoon and especially evening. These
implications on fire weather are discussed in greater detail in the
fire discussion below. If recent trends with short-term models
bringing drier air further east are realized, this would continue to
push the better moisture advection further east of the area.
Additionally, forecast soundings from the RAP (one of the drier
solutions) show an abundance of dry air that would make it difficult
for convection to sustain itself. The more probable scenario is for
thunderstorms to develop east of the area where the best surface
convergence and moisture come together. However, initialization
looks close enough to the eastern edge of the area to maintain 15-
20% PoPs along and southeast of the KS Turnpike for a brief period
in the early evening. If a storm can develop, instability and shear
would be supportive of large hail or gusty winds, but any storms
would quickly move off to the east.
As the western trough advances east, a piece of energy looks to
break off and traverse across the central Plains. This brings an
associated sfc low moving northeastward across the state Wednesday
night through Thursday. Overall not much has changed with this part
of the forecast, as the warm front looks to be placed near the KS/NE
border by Wednesday evening, leading to higher PoPS (above 50%)
being focused across northern KS at that time. The current forecast
track of the system could place the area within the dry slot through
Thursday, leading to probabilities lowering to 20-40%. Ensemble data
generally has most locations receiving under a half inch of QPF, and
the current forecast has totals up to 0.3" near the KS/NE border
where higher chances are favored.
Beyond Thursday, after that system moves out of the area, longer
range guidance shows the main trough to the west trying to become
cut off and spin over the southwestern US. Cooler temperatures are
forecast behind Thursday`s cold front, with highs in the 50s Friday.
A slight warm-up is forecast Saturday before a reinforcing push of
cooler air arrives out of the northern stream trough, dropping highs
back to the 50s next Sunday with lows in the 20s and 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024
Southerly winds around 13kts are expected through 04Z then
become gusty around 23kts. LLWS develops after 05Z and ends from
13Z to 15Z. Winds shift to the west at MHK around 10kts or less
after 20Z, then at TOP and FOE at the end of the forecast
period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM CST Sun Mar 10 2024
RH values so far today have fallen to around 25% across northern KS
while SSW winds are gusting near 30mph. There may be a brief time
window when Red Flag criteria could be reached this afternoon during
peak heating. RH is then expected to recover this evening into the
30s and 40s. As for Tuesday, short-term models (particularly hi-res
guidance) appear to be in agreement on a dry punch of air moving in
behind the sfc low in the afternoon with a sharp dryline becoming
established in the eastern part of the area by late afternoon. This
could bring RH values as low as 20-25% in parts of central KS. The
good news is winds should gradually decrease through the afternoon
as the sfc trough axis pushes across the area, helping to limit the
fire weather potential. However, the dry air brings enough concern
for elevated fire danger so burning is still not recommended,
particularly with winds shifting from the southwest to the west
behind the boundary.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...Picha