Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/08/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
613 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
As of 12 PM, a dryline has mixed east into western Oklahoma with a
cold front present just north of Borger. This front is expected to
stall in the afternoon hours before working south again later in the
afternoon through the evening. The surface low currently over the
Panhandles will move off to the southeast through this afternoon and
evening which assists the dryline in pushing back toward the
Panhandles. Models are still split on how far west the dryline will
make it, whether it`s splitting the easternmost stack of Texas
Panhandle counties or if it largely stays along the TX/OK border. In
any case, if the HRRR is correct, convection may develop as early as
3 PM in the far eastern Texas Panhandle. If this happens, the
inverted-V sounding suggests virga with the potential for strong wind
gusts for the far eastern Texas Panhandle. Other models bring the
dryline back into easternmost stack of counties and convective
development may begin as early as 3-4 PM, primarily in the
southeastern Texas Panhandle. If 50 degree dew points can make it
back into the Panhandles, 1000-2000 MUCAPE could be realized
which would ordinarily suggest potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms starting around 6 PM. In this case, large hail
would be the primary threat with 60+ mph wind gusts closely behind
if convection is ahead of the cold front and surface-based.
However... given that convective initiation is currently favored
in the far eastern Texas Panhandle, there may not be much time
for an updraft to mature and grow large hail before the storm
moves into Oklahoma. Thus, while a severe thunderstorm wouldn`t be
out of the question in this scenario, it seems unlikely. The cold
front will move through the area this evening and convection may
continue to develop in the east throughout the evening.
Snow begins to develop Friday morning as favorable forcing for
ascent moves in. There is considerable uncertainty in the snow
forecast at this moment. Going into today, there was fairly good
confidence that the northwestern combined Panhandles are most
favored for the highest snow accumulations in the area. Most models
have moved away from a closed 700mb low solution which was providing
the higher snowfall totals, now favoring more of an open wave with a
less compact vort max. This ultimately leads to relatively greater
confidence that the higher snow totals will be in the northeastern
combined Panhandles, potentially even the east-central Texas
Panhandle. Current HREF probabilistic guidance gives the northeast
combined Panhandles a 30-40% chance for at least 2 inches of snow,
with 20-30% covering much of the central and eastern Texas
Panhandle. Some CAMs do suggest the potential for snow banding as
well, which would lead to locally higher snow totals. HREF
probabilistic guidance gives a 10-20% chance for at least 5 inches
of snow in the northeast combined Panhandles. With all that said,
there are an alarming number of models that give no snow or less
than an inch of snow. However, this appears to mostly be due to
temperatures that largely do not support snow. Not lending much
credence to this idea as there will be northerly winds at 25-30 mph
throughout the day, widespread cloud coverage, and precipitation
ongoing; temperatures shouldn`t warm much through the day. As such,
have once again lowered Friday`s highs up to 5 degrees. Long story
short, accumulating snow is favored for the northeastern combined
Panhandles into the central and eastern Texas Panhandle with the
higher totals most favored to be in the northeast. Due to previously
mentioned uncertainties, will hold off on issuing any winter weather
headlines at this time but may be needed on future shifts.
Snow should come to an end by Friday evening, and temperatures will
fall into the 20s Friday night. Depending on depth and location of
snow cover, these temperatures may need to be lowered for at least a
portion of the area.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
A weak trough develops Sunday in the Southwestern US on the backside
of the system currently impacting the Panhandles, but moisture will
be insufficient for precipitation chances. Otherwise, another
shortwave trough may impact the Panhandles Monday, but moisture may
be in question. However, breezy southwesterly winds are favored with
dry conditions which may lead to fire weather concerns. That system
moves out and another trough dips into the Western US Wednesday.
This may lead to weather of some kind later in the week.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
For the 00Z TAFs, a complicated forecast during the next 24 hours.
A cold front will continue moving across the southern Texas Panhandle
early this evening with gusty north winds in its wake. Low cigs will
invade the terminal sites from the north through tonight, with MVFR
to IFR cigs anticipated through the end of the forecast cycle. An
upper level storm system is expected to track across the area late
tonight and Friday, and will bring a threat for light rain and light
snow to the TAF sites. Precipitation is forecast to end from the
northwest later Friday. Confidence in timing of individual elements
is low and amendments may become necessary.
02
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to continue in the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle today. Fire weather conditions may
return Monday due to breezy southwesterly winds, temperatures in the
70s, and low RH values.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 36 42 25 54 / 20 40 0 0
Beaver OK 31 43 23 56 / 30 40 0 0
Boise City OK 28 37 21 54 / 40 40 0 0
Borger TX 36 44 27 57 / 20 40 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 34 43 24 55 / 20 40 0 0
Canyon TX 35 43 25 55 / 10 40 0 0
Clarendon TX 39 46 29 55 / 20 40 10 0
Dalhart TX 30 39 21 54 / 30 40 0 0
Guymon OK 30 40 22 55 / 30 30 0 0
Hereford TX 35 43 24 54 / 10 40 0 0
Lipscomb TX 34 43 25 56 / 30 40 0 0
Pampa TX 35 43 26 53 / 30 50 10 0
Shamrock TX 39 47 29 55 / 30 40 10 0
Wellington TX 42 49 29 56 / 30 40 10 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...02
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
505 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A disorganized storm system passing through the region will bring
two rounds of winter weather to portions of the area through
Friday.
- The first round has already begun, with snow moving into the
southern Nebraska panhandle through the afternoon today.
Confidence is very low in exact accumulations due to an
expected extremely sharp gradient in snow from northwest to
southeast.
- The second round will develop this afternoon, mainly in
Wyoming, with some light snow possible in Nebraska. A few
locally intense snow squalls are possible this afternoon in
Carbon and Albany counties.
- Active long term pattern taking shape for much of the work
week. Significant snowfall possible by mid-week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2024
Current forecast this afternoon through early Friday morning is
on track so far, which is surprising given how uncertain this
part of the forecast was 12 to 24 hours ago based on previous
model trends. Current KCYS radar loop shows the steady snowfall
currently across the central and southern Nebraska Panhandle
and close to the Wyoming border. Another area of snow showers is
currently developing across Carbon and Albany counties this
afternoon with even a few thundershowers noted on lightning
detection around Laramie. All synoptic models, including the
NAM, continue to show solutions which involve bands of heavy
snow across far southeast Wyoming and most of the central and
southern Nebraska Panhandle through 00z to 06z late this
evening. Even the 12z ECMWF has trended towards the GFS and the
NAM. However, these models are not initializing well given
current observations and radar trends from late this morning
through early this afternoon. Although it has been snowing for
most of the southern Nebraska Panhandle, snow accumulations have
been under 1 inch outside of Cheyenne County with webcams
showing a dusting for most places. The highest accumulations
have been around Sidney and Lodgepole Nebraska and areas south
of I-80 towards the Colorado border. Recent reports and webcams
show around 2 to 3 of snow in this area (0.34 liquid at Sidney
airport as of 2 PM local time), but hardly any road impacts with
major state highways and Interstates all showing pavement with
little snow cover. Although more snow is expected, believe
impacts will be minimal into this evening. The HRRR has
continued to initialize well, so mainly used the HRRR and some
consensus blend for tonight`s forecast and into early Friday.
The 18z and 19z HRRR show the steady snowfall across western
Nebraska ending/tapering off around sunset early this evening.
Lighter bands of snow are expected overnight, but additional
accumulations should be up to one inch. Will keep the Winter
Weather Advisory out for Cheyenne County and we`re not planning
on extending it into other zones at this time. Further west,
HRRR showers bands of heavy snow showers slowly moving eastward
into the I-25 corridor this evening. SBCAPE will eventually
trend lower after sunset, so the heavy snow threat should end
before 8 PM. Meanwhile, a secondary upper level through axis
will dig south into Wyoming late tonight and early Friday...which
will likely enhance snowfall rates for most of southeast
Wyoming, especially around northeast to east facing slopes and
ridges. Kept current headlines as is across southeast Wyoming.
Thought about extending the Winter Weather Advisory into the
northern Laramie Range tonight and possibly northern Carbon
County, but higher accumulations close to Advisory criteria
should be localized based on the showery nature of this
precipitation.
For Friday, light snow should slowly come to an end from north
to south as the secondary trough axis moves across the area. It
will likely be the coldest day of the week with highs in the
upper 20s to low 30s for most areas, and maybe upper 30s to
around 40 further north where the most sunshine is expected.
Models show the leading edge of the Pacific upper level ridge
moving into the Front Range Friday night, with increasing 700mb
temperatures. Cold air will remain at the surface with clearing
skies and the potential of a snow pack lingering across portions
of southeast Wyoming and the southern Nebraska Panhandle.
Therefore, expected Friday night into early Saturday morning to
be pretty cold with lows in the single digits to mid teens. Will
likely need to monitor the potential for fog across the
sheltered valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2024
Relatively quiet start to the weekend as an upper-level ridge builds
over the Intermountain West and moves eastward towards Wyoming and
western Nebraska. Clear skies, warm temperatures, and dry conditions
will accompany this ridge as it settles in overhead by Sunday
morning. 700mb temperatures will warm towards the positive single
digits Sunday leading to a warm day across the region with highs in
the upper-40s west of the Laramie Range and mid-50s to mid-60s east
of the Laramie Range. 700mb heights being to tighten Saturday night
into early Sunday morning resulting in a 35-40kt 700mb jet across
the region. This jet is progged to be weaker than previous model
runs, which suggested a 700mb jet around 50kts across the Laramie
Range late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Craig to Casper
height gradients remain around 50-57m at this time, suggesting that
the potential high wind event this weekend may be weakening a bit
with less upper-level support. GFS omega fields still look
supportive for strong winds during this time period, but due to
minimal upper-level support and decreasing 700mb jet strength,
decided to keep winds below high wind criteria at this time.
Warm conditions continue Monday as the upper-level ridge strengthens
overhead. Temperatures will remain in the upper-40s west of the
Laramie Range and mid-50s to mid-60s east of the Laramie Range for
Monday. The first of two upper-level troughs is progged to move
towards the region on Monday, with the axis across eastern
Washington, eastern Oregon, and central Nevada by Monday morning.
This trough will bring the first round of precipitation, primarily
for the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming. As the trough begins to
push into western Wyoming Monday afternoon and evening, 700mb and
surface winds turn southwesterly. With southwesterly winds, enhanced
orographic lift is favored across the Sierra Madre and Snowy range,
with precipitation chances increasing by the late morning hours. A
surface low is progged to be positioned over northwestern South
Dakota with a weak attendant cold front impacting southeast Wyoming
and western Nebraska during the day Monday. Decent cooling
throughout the day Monday is expected behind this cold front, but
highs on Tuesday will rebound ahead of the second, more impactful,
incoming trough. Lingering snow chances will remain over the higher
terrain Tuesday afternoon before the next system moves towards the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The second of two upper-level troughs pushes onshore across the
Pacific Northwest Tuesday morning and begins to deepen as cold air
advection at 500 and 700mb increases. The trough is progged to
evolve into a strong, positively tilted trough by Wednesday morning.
A 700mb low will develop across southern Colorado and advect
northeasterly towards Kansas and Nebraska. However, some differences
in the long range models begin to show up at this time. The GFS
suggests the 700mb low develops further south than the ECMWF 700mb
low, with both moving northeasterly before being absorbed into the
larger scale flow. At the surface, the GFS develops a surface low
across the northern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma Panhandle
while the ECMWF surface low is slightly further north across
southeastern Colorado. Both models show a favorable low placement
for significant precipitation across southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska, but the slightly further south solution in the GFS may
result in minimally reduced precipitation totals than the further
north solution in the ECMWF. Both surface lows move northeasterly
into central Kansas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
morning before becoming less resolved. Despite the model
differences, the placement of both the GFS low and ECMWF low keeps
the CWA in the northwestern quadrant with continued precipitation
development from Wednesday morning through late Thursday night. This
system evolution favors significant snow totals across the CWA,
assuming any rain in the warm sector transitions over to snow
quickly. This system will continue to be monitored as this is a very
favorable pattern for this area. Overall, significant snow is
possible Wednesday and Thursday this coming week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 504 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2024
The main aviation concern for the TAF period continues to be falling
snow, causing both low CIGs and poor visibility. Snow is currently
falling across much of the area causing IFR conditions. Snow will
likely continue overnight and into the morning hours. Expect low
CIGs to continue through Friday morning as well. Overall, conditions
will continue to deteriorate this evening and into the overnight
hours.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Friday for WYZ105-110-
115.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Friday for WYZ106-114-
117.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Friday for WYZ116.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
NEZ055.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...SF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
916 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain showers arrive Friday morning, some embedded thunderstorms
possible Friday afternoon into Friday night.
- Rain may end as light snow Saturday evening.
- After a brief cooldown the second half of the weekend, warm
temperatures return for much of next week
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024
- Rain Arrives overnight
- Cool
Surface analysis late this evening shows low pressure in place over
Oklahoma, while high pressure was found over Quebec. This was
resulting in a cool easterly surface flow across Central Indiana.
Aloft, an upper trough was found over the Rockies, with southwest
flow ahead of the trough over the plains, spilling into the Ohio
Valley. Flow aloft was slightly diffluent, resulting in weak lift
across the mid-Mississippi Valley. Radar shows scattered rain
showers across Missouri and western IL, pushing toward Indiana.
Overall the ongoing forecast is in good shape. The HRRR suggests the
precipitation shield over IL will arrive in central Indiana within
the 07Z-09Z time frame and then persist through the overnight hours
and into the morning rush hours. Forcing will be provided by
isentropic lift ahead of the approaching low. This can be seen on
the GFS 295K surface, where specific humidity of over 5.5 g/kg are
arriving overnight. Forecast soundings and time heights also show
deep saturation arriving overnight, with pwats approaching 1 inch.
Thus will trend toward categorical pops overnight along with lows
near expected wet bulb temps in the middle 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024
Low stratus persists across most of the region as of 2pm EDT.
Ceilings have gradually lifted through the afternoon, and are now
above 1000 feet agl. Model soundings indicate a bit of dry air
infiltrating the lower layers, allowing the stratus to thin a bit.
Unfortunately, clouds are moving in aloft so any thinning of the low-
level stratus deck will just lead to more cloudy skies...only higher
up. Overall, expect overcast conditions through the period as
moisture moves in at almost all levels.
A positively-tilted trough is currently approaching from the west.
We`ll find ourselves in the left-exit region of a jet streak, as
well as in a warm advective low-level flow pattern. Increasing
moisture, coupled with favorable jet dynamics and isentropic lift,
should lead to widespread precipitation development Friday morning.
The available forcing isn`t strong, so higher-res models have had a
hard time pin-pointing the location of showers and storm clusters.
Nevertheless, they all have rain widespread at times affecting all
portions of the CWA. Confidence is high that it will rain tomorrow.
Most models show elevated instability working into the region on
Friday. Strong storms are not expected, as CAPE remains on the low
side (less than 500 J/Kg) and effective shear is weak (30 knots).
Locally heavy rainfall is the primary hazard based on sounding
analysis which shows abundant moisture (PWAT near an inch) and
modest lapse rates (6.5 C/km to 7.0 C/km). Cell motion will be fast,
almost 30 knots, so if we have hydro concerns it will come from
training storms/heavy showers.
In terms of rainfall amounts, a bit more variability exists. Given
the possibility of embedded convective components and the scattered
nature of heavier rain cores...some spatial variability in precip
totals may occur. On average, about an inch will fall...but locally
higher amounts are possible should repeated convective elements
occur. On the contrary, lower amounts are possible if these
convective elements somehow avoid a particular location.
For temperatures, we kept lows tonight not much lower than current
values due to continued cloud cover and expected rainfall. For highs
Friday, we went quite a bit warmer compared to today with values
near 60 degrees. Our reasoning is that the easterly winds gradually
become southerly, allowing warm advection to counter the lack of
sunshine and occasional rainfall.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024
The long term will start off with rainy and cool weather as a
northern stream trough phases with a southern stream one with the
result on upper low digging southeast across the Great Lakes
Saturday and Saturday night and into New England Sunday.
Meanwhile, next week will feature a return to the well above normal
temperatures as an upper ridge moves overhead Monday night as low
level flow shifts to southerly in the wake of a surface high that
will move east across the Tennessee Valley.
Models and ensembles are in reasonably good agreement with the major
synoptic players. Ensembles are revealing there is a 40-50% that any
locale will see an inch or more of storm total rainfall by Saturday
night. Weak instability Friday night into Saturday combined with
broad divergent upper flow in a coupled jet structure combined with
the 1 plus inch PWATs and synoptic forcing suggests there could be
some embedded thunder that will result in locally higher rainfall
amounts. In addition, support the higher PoPs over southeastern
sections FRiday night and Saturday as that area will be in closer
proximity to a nocturnal 50+ knot low level jet and southeastward
moving strong cold front. Temperatures will drop quite a bit in the
wake of this front and confidence is good regarding below normal
temperatures Sunday as a 5 to 10 degree below zero air mass moves
in. This suggests highs only in the 40s, despite dry soundings and
high pressure supporting mostly sunny skies.
More rain is possible towards the middle of next week as an upper
wave moves across the Great Lakes in the wake of the early week
ridge.
850 millibar temperatures rebound back to 4 to 6 degrees above zero
and southerly winds, mixing and a dry column should allow
temperatures to rebound all the way back to the 60s by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 606 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024
Impacts:
- Mainly MVFR cigs this period, however brief IFR Cigs will be
possible.
- Rain showers arrive overnight, generally after 08z.
Discussion:
GOES16 shows widespread MVFR cigs across the the region with a few
pockets of VFR Cigs present. These pockets are expected to fill in
this evening. Low pressure over OK will push toward Illinois through
Friday. This will allow for a warm and moist SE flow to develop
across Central Indiana. Forecast soundings overnight show deep
saturation arriving after 08Z-09Z and persisting through the early
morning hours and through the day on Friday. Time heights also show
a saturation column with ongoing lift. Aloft ample forcing dynamics
remain in play as a weak upper level divergent flow is in place
aloft over Indiana ahead of an approaching trough.
Thus mainly MVFR Cigs will be present as we remain in this wet
pattern for the next 36-48 hours.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
859 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
An area of very light showers has developed over Texas counties
- something models were not anticipating. It appears the 00Z HRRR
had the closest grasp on this trend, so that guidance was
blended in over the next few hours. This also resulted in
intermittent 15 to 20% PoPs over much of the area since more
should continue to develop.
Otherwise, not much was tweaked for the nearterm forecast.
11/Calhoun
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 319 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
A dry line is across West Texas extending north into a low in the
panhandle. From the panhandle low a cold front extends north to
the Canada. Ahead of this system, moisture is increasing as the
flow remains off the gulf. Aloft, A long wave trough is over the
western U.S. providing lift. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of
the surface boundaries and upper trough with SVR TS watches
stretched from the TX hill country to SE KS.
Tonight the upper trough and frontal boundary will continue east.
Lift will increase locally as this occurs and showers and
thunderstorms will become possible in the SE TX Lakes by
midnight. Rain chances will increase south and east as the early
morning progresses. While severe weather is not anticipated before
sunrise all modes of severe weather will become possible after
sunrise with the threat continuing through the afternoon. Hi-res
guidance is not overly excited about higher coverage of storms
along and south of the I-10 corridor, however areas from the lakes
through Cen LA and across the north half of the Atchafalaya Basin
can expected scattered to numerous storms.
Forecast rainfall amounts are only around a tenth of an inch along
the I-10 corridor to near half an inch in the northern areas.
While localized heavy rain will be possible, overall amounts are
fairly low.
Rain chances will decrease through Friday night into early
Saturday as the system exits.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
Fair and pleasant weather can be expected for most of the long term
with a warming trend going into the beginning of the work week and
isolated showers possible near the mid to end of the week. By
Saturday morning, all the precip will have cleared the region with
the first front off the coast of SELA and a reinforcing front
beginning to move into the area. This secondary front will help to
usher in drier and cooler air with a surface ridge sinking into the
Southern Plains.
Over the weekend and into the next work week an upper level low will
slide eastwards across the area however thanks to the drier air
(both at the surface and aloft), it will be highly unlikely to get
so much as a shower out of this. The surface high pressure will
begin to move off to the east with southerly flow returning to the
area by Monday afternoon. We will see an increase in cloud cover,
temperatures, and dewpoints for the rest of the long term.
Isolated showers will return mid to late in the week (tail end of
the long term) in response to an upper level disturbance.
Temperatures this weekend will be cooler with highs in the mid 60s
and lows in the 40s. Going into the work week is when we will see
the warming trend with highs steadily increasing to the mid to upper
70s and lows in the 40s to 50s.
Stigger/87
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
Main issue with this forecast is Low CIGS and winds early in the
forecast then timing of showers and thunderstorms towards 12Z
tomorrow and through the remainder of the forecast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
Patchy fog will be possible tonight through Friday ahead of a cold
front while higher moisture remains in place. Winds will be
somewhat elevated which may keep fog from become widespread.
The pressure gradient will be somewhat tight tonight keeping winds
in the gulf waters around or slightly above 15kts. The winds will
decrease Friday as the front moves through, however increase again
as the ridge builds in early Saturday. An SCA may be needed
beginning early Saturday. The ridge will move across the region
early next week with light winds expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 64 76 54 66 / 40 80 20 0
LCH 67 77 57 67 / 30 50 10 0
LFT 67 78 63 71 / 30 60 20 10
BPT 68 78 57 68 / 40 50 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...27
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
605 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread rain develops late tonight and persists into Friday
evening. Some minor flooding of low-spots and modest river
rises expected as a result
- Lingering showers possible Saturday morning, some of which
could contain snowflakes
- Seasonable temperatures this weekend give way to a warming
trend next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
Through Friday Night:
Broad surface troughing extends from the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, northeast into Iowa and western Illinois early this
afternoon. Within this trough axis, several areas of low pressure
will develop through tonight and Friday as upper divergence in the
left exit region of a notable 140+ kt upper jet streak migrates
northward.
As this occurs, the mass of rain and embedded thunderstorms
currently across Kansas and Missouri will expand and blossom over
Illinois. Precipitation chances will commensurately march upwards
late this evening and overnight. While some spits of light
rain/drizzle may develop as early as 8-10 pm across the southwest
parts of the CWA, the bulk of the large scale ascent (and deeper
moisture) is slated to arrive during the late overnight and
morning hours on Friday.
Guidance continues to struggle defining where the primary axis of
low-level convergence within the aforementioned broad troughing
will develop on Friday. This will have implications on the
placement of a corridor of locally-enhanced precipitation rates
and amounts as this region of convergence and mid-level
deformation interacts with fairly robust upper jet divergence.
Latest model guidance seems to be honing in on areas near and NW
of I-57 with this favored corridor. Rainfall amounts in this zone
may approach (or locally exceed) 2 inches through Friday evening.
While hourly rates will not be significant, this amount of
rainfall over a 12-18 hour period this time of year will result in
modest river rises and the potential for minor flooding, so we`ll
be highlighting this threat with a Hydrologic Outlook.
The surface warm front looks like it`ll get hung up somewhere in
the vicinity of I-57 on Friday afternoon. Breezy northeast winds
to the north of this feature will hold high temperatures in the
low to mid 40s north and west of this feature, with the coolest
conditions at the immediate lakefront where highs may not climb
much above 40.
With guidance showing perhaps a slight trend towards a more
amplified disturbance, some CAMs today are resolving deeper
surface lows within the main trough axis translating northward
across central Illinois late Friday afternoon. With surface
dewpoints advertised in the mid 50s, some CAMs (WRFarw and HRRR in
particular) show a near total erosion of MLCIN and the development
of a sliver of modest 0-3 km CAPE, even amidst totally overcast
conditions and intermittent rain/showers through the day. 0-1 km
shear nearing 25-30 knots amidst locally-backed southeasterly
winds in the vicinity of any low/meso lows is always something to
keep an eye on in our area this time of year, even with low
overall MLCAPE values. At this juncture, think that any bonafide
threat for a brief tornado spin-up remains south of the region
where steeper low-level lapse rates will be present, however, but
we`ll obviously continue to keep an eye on model trends.
Precipitation will end through Friday night as cooler air presses
into the area.
Carlaw
Saturday through Thursday:
The weather system that is progged to bring us rain on Friday
is expected to be moving across the eastern Ohio River Valley by
Saturday morning. While this should allow the bulk of lingering
shower activity to be east of our area, forecast soundings do
show some lingering moisture across the southeast portion of our
forecast area (namely east of I-55) which may allow some light
showers to persist through Saturday morning. Additionally, there
is also a low chance (less than 20%) for some snowflakes to mix
in briefly as temperatures aloft cool ahead of an approaching
upper low. Regardless, the combination of drying mid-levels and
warm surface temperatures should prevent any snow from
accumulating.
Furthermore, the aforementioned upper low is forecast to dive
through the Great Lakes late Saturday into Sunday which guidance
suggests will spawn some lake effect showers. However, given
that wind profiles are forecast to be out of the west-northwest
I suspect that the bulk of any lake effect showers should remain
further east into northern Indiana and Lower Michigan. I did
maintain a 15 to 20 percent POP in eastern Porter County just as
a precaution. Lake effect parameters do not look very
impressive which should limit the intensity of any lake effect
showers that materialize, but the cold temperatures (both
surface and aloft) will make snow the dominant precipitation
type, though the recent warmth should limit any accumulations
that would occur.
Upper-level ridging is forecast to build into the region as we
head into Monday which will bring any lingering precipitation to
an end. Not only will the ridge keep us precipitation free
through at least the middle of next week, but it also looks to
allow a warming trend to take shape. As a result, above average
temperatures look like a good possibility next week with highs
forecast to be in the 60s and lows in the 40s. However, there is
a signal for a period of more active weather to return towards
the middle and latter portions of next week as a series of
upper troughs head towards the Great Lakes.
Yack
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
- Widespread rain arrives early Friday with associated IFR VIS
and near LIFR CIGS into early evening
- Northeast winds increase during the day on Friday to around
15kt, turning northerly by late afternoon
While there are pockets of VFR out there, MVFR CIGS will
prevail for the majority of the evening and early overnight
hours with generally light ESE-ENE winds.
An approaching weather system will bring widespread rain to the
area early Friday morning. A brief window for patchy drizzle may
precede the rain after midnight with brief dips in VIS to MVFR
possible if it develops. Ceilings will steadily decrease with
each passing hour as rain spreads across the area sometime
between 9-12Z with IFR CIGS likely beyond this time. There
is an increasing signal for CIGS to drop to near 300ft Friday
afternoon. For now opted to maintain a SCT003 OVC005 though
LIFR may be considered with later updates. Expect conditions to
very gradually improve late evening as the main rain axis shifts
to the east.
Winds steadily increase during the day on Friday to around 15
by the afternoon with occasional gusts to 20-25kt into the
evening.
Petr
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM CST Friday to 10 AM CDT Sunday
for the IL nearshore waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM CST Friday to 10 PM CDT Sunday
for the IN nearshore waters.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
837 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
Have canceled the High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories this
evening as winds have remained below criteria and continue to
slowly weaken this evening. The Red Flag Warning has been allowed
to expire as forecast. Lastly, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has
been canceled for our far eastern counties as thunderstorms have
exited to the east and the loss of daytime heating should prohibit
additional severe thunderstorm development.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 210 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
WV imagery shows the main trough moving through Arizona this
afternoon, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under messy
southwest flow aloft. Abundant mid/high cloud is playing hob with
temperatures, winds, fire weather, and possible convection later
this afternoon. Latest models have come down on winds
considerably, now suggesting only a few hours of marginal winds
this afternoon in the mountains. W/no sensors in the Pass, we`re
reluctant to cancel the warnings/advisories early, at least until
skies clear out and mixing strengthens later this afternoon.
Otherwise, surface analysis shows the dryline extending from KGNC-
KINK-KFST-K6R6. This feature is starting to mix east, and should
be east of KMAF by 21Z. Latest CAMs and HRRR are not real
enthusiastic about initiation this afternoon, other than
developing a few weak cells invof where they did yesterday...east
of KMAF...and quickly moving out of the area.
A Pac front arrives overnight, shunting the dryline and better
moisture east. Cooler, drier air and clearing skies will promote
cooler temperatures, but mixing will keep them above normal.
Unfortunately, a cold front arrives Friday, spoiling the pleasant
temperatures of the past few days. Latest NAM puts fropa at KMAF
at around 18Z, but NBM temperatures are on the warmer side of the
models, and assuming the front speeds up a little between now and
then, we`ll shave a degree or so highs. Showers will be possible
along the front, as far as KFST or so.
Friday night, lingering showers will be possible in Southeast New
Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas, but chances will be
minimal. -RASN is anticipated in the Guadalupes, w/little-to-no
accumulation. Overnight lows will be ~ 5F below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
A cold front will move through Friday into Saturday, with
northerly winds. High pressure will build in with return southerly
flow by Sunday, leading to a warming trend into Thursday.
Saturday will be the coldest day of the period in the wake of the
cold front, with highs 10 to 15 degrees below average and mostly
in the 50s for most of the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau, all
of the SE NM plains and higher elevations, with 60s elsewhere,
and lows slightly below average and in 30s and 40s for most.
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the period, with highs 5 to
10 degrees above average and in the 70s and 80s for most of the
area, with some 90s near the Big Bend.
Following southerly flow Sunday through Monday and mostly clear
skies, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday could feature gusty
westerly winds, especially in the SE NM plains and mountains of
West Texas as short waves pass from west to east north of the area
and lee troughing develops from West Texas into SE NM. However,
we are not seeing indications of any strong wind events similar to
what we`ve experienced in January and February anywhere at this
time, especially since cloud cover will be increasing from Tuesday
onwards as a result of a series of short waves passing north of
the area and generating lift for increased cloud cover.
Thursday will see a chance of rain developing from northeast to
southwest as a cold front approaches from the north, accompanied
by a deep short wave approaching from the Desert Southwest. At
this time, grids show rain chances for Reagan up to Borden
Counties and points eastward Thursday morning, with rain chances
increasing into Thursday evening into the SE NM plains and north
of I-20, with some thunder chances showing up east of Midland-
Odessa and then building west into the Midland-Odessa area down
into Terrell County, with rain chances increasing farther south
all the way into the area north of the Rio Grande valleys.
However, rainfall amounts indicated for Thursday are light for
now, with just a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch, mainly
across eastern portions of the Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains where we are seeing the highest chance of heavier
rains. We will continue to monitor this upcoming chance of heavier
rains as it draws closer.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. West winds will remain
elevated overnight, veering slightly at northern terminals as a
cold front approaches. Latest models put fropa at KHOB at ~ 14Z,
and clearing KFST after 19Z. Cigs will drop w/fropa, but remain
VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
Persistent cloud cover is delaying deeper mixing of the boundary
layer and we are not yet seeing winds above 20 miles per hour on
station plots. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all of SE
NM, the northwest Permian Basin, and Upper Trans Pecos south to
the Presidio Valley into this evening. We are still expecting a
strong midlevel speed max to approach within the southwest flow
aloft and for critical min RH (near 10%) and strongest winds
(25-35 mph) to occur over near to above normal fuel loading from
the northwest Permian Basin southwest into the Davis Mountains.
Poor overnight recovery last night over the SE NM plains south
into the area southwest of the Pecos River and ERCs in the 50th to
75th percentile for most locations are still expected to be
conducive to drying of fuels. Better overnight recovery tonight is
expected to reduce the fire weather risk. A strong cold front
with gusty northerly winds and increased moisture will arrive by
midday Friday, further reducing the fire weather risk.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 47 61 35 59 / 10 10 10 0
Carlsbad 45 59 35 55 / 0 40 30 0
Dryden 50 74 41 63 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 49 67 38 59 / 0 10 10 10
Guadalupe Pass 41 54 33 50 / 0 30 30 0
Hobbs 42 53 30 57 / 0 30 10 0
Marfa 36 60 30 56 / 0 0 10 10
Midland Intl Airport 48 61 36 58 / 0 20 10 0
Odessa 48 62 36 58 / 0 20 10 0
Wink 47 63 36 60 / 0 20 20 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
634 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- System moving into the region Friday into Saturday morning
will support rain and snow chances; most likely south and
east. Snow amounts mostly less than an inch expected.
- Period of lake effect snow follows Saturday into Sunday. A
coupleinches of snow possible in the north to northwest wind
snow belts.
- Strong north to northwest winds expected Saturday and Sunday.Winds
may approach 35 mph, particularly east and near Lake
Superior.
- Cooler air builds in this weekend, bringing high temperaturescloser
to normal for early March. Well above normal temperatures
return early next week though.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 324 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a shortwave lifting ne
along the Manitoba-Ontario border while mid-level troffing over
roughly the w half of the Lwr 48 has several embedded shortwaves
from the Southern Rockies out across the Plains. At the sfc, low
pres associated with the wave to the nw is over northern Ontario to
the nw of Pickle Lake. Sfc trof extends s across western Lake
Superior. Although radar is picking up returns across western Lake
Superior into western Upper MI, very dry air blo the mid cloud deck
is preventing any pcpn from reaching the sfc. This very dry air was
dramatically shown on the 12z KGRB/KAPX soundings which had 40+C
dwpt depressions in the lower levels. So, it`s a dry springtime
setup today as building mixed layer has tapped this dry air,
resulting in sfc dwpts crashing down as low as the single digits F
across the interior w. KLNL has been lowest with dwpt dropping to
-1F, resulting in RH of 11pct. Otherwise, 15-20pct RH is common. Out
e, dwpts have also fallen thru the teens F to around 10F, and RH is
down to around 20pct. To the s, low clouds have been streaming up
Lake MI on se winds today. These clouds have recently arrived in
Menominee County. Current temps range from the mid 50s F interior w
down to the lwr 40s F across the Keweenaw and near Lake MI due to e
to se winds.
Aforementioned sfc trof will continue to move e tonight, extending
from eastern Lake Superior across central Upper MI by sunrise Fri.
Although there will be some mid-level cloudiness, there won`t be any
pcpn due to the very dry air blo cloud deck thru much of the lower
levels. Ahead of the trof, southerly sfc will advect the lower
clouds over Lake MI n across much of central Upper MI tonight.
Expect min temps to range from the mid to upper 20s F w to upper 20s
and lower 30s F e half.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024
Guidance continues to paint a consistent outlook for the pattern in
the extended forecast period. The highlight of the period is early
on when a complex system moves through the Great Lakes. This will
provide our forecast area a mix of rain and snow Friday into early
Saturday that will transition into lake effect Saturday into Sunday.
While there continues to be some uncertainty, confidence is high
(>75%) that impacts will be minimal with this system. Beyond Sunday,
dry conditions with well above normal temperatures are expected
through at least Tuesday night.
Beginning Friday, the main focus is on a surface low and southern
stream shortwave ejecting out of the Plains, then lifting into the
Upper Great Lakes. The surface low will track along or just ahead of
a weak cold front that stretches into Ontario. As the day
progresses, precip, mostly in the form of rain will spread into the
central and eastern portions of Upper Michigan. By Friday afternoon,
guidance suggests the low will be over northern Illinois with its
precip shield extending north. As this occurs, colder air should
begin wrapping around into Upper Michigan, supporting a change over
to snow that`s aided by waning diurnal heating. Snow should be of
the wetter variety and will likely struggle to accumulate. Most
likely (75%), amounts will top out of an inch or less in the central
and east. Yesterday, some GEFS and EC ensemble members painted more
significant snow amounts; however, these trends continue to decrease
among their memberships and current worse case projections would be
worthy of only a Winter Weather Advisory.
The low will trek into Lake Huron by Saturday morning as an
amplifying northern stream shortwave presses into the Upper Great
Lakes. This will work to deepen this low, or a secondary low further
south and east. The effect presented among the various guidance
packages, regardless of evolution, will be the transition to some
lake enhanced or lake effect showers for the north to northwest wind
snow belts Saturday into Sunday and blustery winds. Since yesterday,
there`s been an uptick in potential snow shower activity given a
slightly more moist post-system airmass. This appears to be mostly
for the east, but the west may experience more widespread light snow
showers then expected yesterday. Overall though, snow amounts are
still expected to be on the lighter side, perhaps a couple inches at
most into Sunday morning. The colder airmass building in mixed with
the stronger pressure gradient overhead will support blustery winds
each day this weekend. Guidance continues to suggest northerly to
northwesterly winds may approach or exceed 30 mph across the east.
35 mph wind gusts are expected near the lakeshores east of Marquette.
Another ridge begins pushing into the Upper Great Lakes late Sunday
while a surface high stretches from Hudson Bay down to the Gulf of
Mexico. This high will press into southeast CONUS by Tuesday while
extending ridging back into the Upper Great Lakes and ridging aloft
lingers. This dry pattern will support warm air advection as we sit
on the high`s western flank, allowing temperatures to trend back to
well above normal temps to start off next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024
VFR will prevail at IWD and CMX throughout the TAF period. SAW,
however, will deteriorate to MVFR tonight as clouds filter into the
area in southeasterly flow. The MVFR conditions will persist
into tomorrow afternoon at SAW when a wind shift to the north
will improve them back to VFR through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024
Southeast winds of 20 to 30 knots continue over the north-central
lake this afternoon as a low pressure lifts into northern Ontario
today. The winds die down to 20 knots or less this evening as the
low continues to lift away towards Hudson Bay tonight. However,
expect the winds to begin picking back up from the north Friday
night as another low pressure lifts from the Plains through Georgian
Bay. The low pulls away Saturday, leaving behind cold air pouring
across the lake and a tight pressure gradient. This will support
increasing winds to around 30 knots during the day Saturday across
the east half. Internal probabilistic guidance suggests there is a
50% or higher chance of winds exceeding 33 kts across parts of the
east; this matches well with model soundings showing the depth of
the mixed layer tapping into some of these stronger winds aloft. If
this trend continues, a gale watch may be needed in future forecast
packages. These strong winds will persist into Sunday, but lighten
from west to east. Expecting the entire lake to be 20 kts or less by
Monday morning. These light winds look to continue through the early
part of next week as the ridging moves through.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for LSZ244.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
542 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
Latest observations show a surface low centered over northwest
Oklahoma with a sharp warm front extending across far northern
Oklahoma and a dryline bulging over northwest Oklahoma. An attendant
cold front was also situated over the Oklahoma panhandle. Severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline and ahead of
the cold front over the next several hours as dynamic lift
overspreads the area. The storms that develop initially along the
dryline are could become supercellular and produce large hail up to
the size of golfballs over far southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas. Meanwhile, severe storm development is also possible
along/ahead of the warm front - though whether these storms impact
our area is uncertain as satellite indicates the warm front lifting
into southern Kansas as of 2PM. Nevertheless, storms along the warm
front will pose a tornado threat with RAP effective helicity values
prog`d at 200-300 m2/s2. Storms could congeal into a linear MCS
tonight upon reaching central Oklahoma as the cold front approaches
and becomes quasi-stationary. Large hail up to the size of quarters
and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible as storms reach
central Oklahoma later tonight. Showers and a few thunderstorms
could linger across parts of southern Oklahoma and western north
Texas towards Friday morning.
The upper trough will continue to push the cold front across our
area through Friday morning with some rain showers behind the front.
Large scale warm air ascent seen on the isentropic surfaces in a
weak to low-end moderately unstable environment will produce
clusters of isolated thunderstorms in the warm sector ahead of the
cold front with more liner storms along the fronts leading edge. The
severe risk during the morning with the isolated storms will be
lower although with additional cooling aloft from the upper trough
within a deep-layer sheared environment for storm organization in
the warm sector cannot completely rule hail perhaps up to quarter
size. The severe risk increases during the afternoon in the warm
sector with moderate instability but models not in full agreement
with the location of the cold front. The GFS solution has the cold
front east of I-35 and pushing into southeast Oklahoma, while all
other solutions have the front already through our area and into
northeast Texas. Should the GFS solution be correct, then southeast
Oklahoma would be in the warm sector which could see supercells
producing up to golf ball size hail while DCAPE values would also
support damaging wind gusts as a second severe hazard. Although
this is a Pacific-based storm system coming through, the air mass
behind the cold front will be more colder Canadian-based with the
surface high up in North Dakota. Northwest Oklahoma will feel the
brunt of this colder air with lower 40s highs by late morning then
rapidly falling through the afternoon to near freezing. Forecast
soundings across northwest Oklahoma on Friday afternoon support a
freezing to below freezing column of air above ground level with a
moist dendritic zone for ice crystals, so will likely see a
changeover to snow on the ground there. Although Ensemble forecast
have a bullseye of 60% chance for up to 1-inch of snow in far
northwest Oklahoma, warm ground temperatures will make it unlikely
this amount will actually accumulate. As a result, snowfall may be
greater than what accumulates. However, gusty north winds could
reduce visibilities due to snowfall on Friday afternoon across
northwest Oklahoma. By Friday evening, will keep POPs east of I-35
and completely out by midnight Saturday morning. As far as grids
for Fridays MaxT temperatures, did go colder than NBM using the
CONSMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
Friday night/Saturday morning will be much colder areawide, as gusty
north winds will produce wind chill values well in the 20s. Cooler
than average for the rest of Saturday as the upper trough makes its
exit. Cold again Saturday night/Sunday morning as high pressure
settles in, although less of a wind chill but more strong
radiational cooling night. Breezy south winds make a return by
Sunday afternoon with temperatures warming above average, and
increasing gusty south winds through Wednesday will continue the
warming trend with mild highs in the upper 70s by mid-week across
Oklahoma to lower 80s across western north Texas. However,
increasing dry air across the Panhandles will start elevating fire
weather conditions across our west during the afternoons starting on
Sunday. A couple of upper waves come through during the mid to
latter half of next week bringing our next chance for rain on
Tuesday night with perhaps a stronger trough at the end of the week
pushing our next cold front through. For now, any rain on Tuesday
night would be east of I-35.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move slowly east this
evening, potentially impacting many of our sites. Storm activity
will diminish after midnight but low ceilings and/or scattered
showers will linger into Friday morning. Additional showers and
continued low ceilings are likely as we head into Friday
afternoon. A cold front will bring a northerly wind shift with it
as it moves across the area from north to south tonight into
tomorrow morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 50 53 33 54 / 70 50 20 0
Hobart OK 46 51 32 54 / 60 40 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 53 58 37 58 / 50 30 10 0
Gage OK 35 40 26 56 / 30 50 10 0
Ponca City OK 47 52 32 54 / 70 30 20 0
Durant OK 56 65 40 57 / 60 60 20 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
431 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue the rest of this afternoon
across south-central Arizona as a low pressure system moves
eastward through the Desert Southwest. The primary threats
associated with any stronger thunderstorms will be small hail
along with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Cooler
conditions and below normal temperatures are also anticipated. In
the wake of this system, high pressure will build across the
region through the weekend resulting in a warming trend through
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
An active afternoon is underway across portions of south-central
Arizona as showers and thunderstorms have developed in response
to a low pressure system moving through the region. Current RAP
analysis shows the cold core of this system is now moving across
central portions of Arizona, leading to better mid-level lapse and
instability. The forced ascent associated with this system and
CAPE values upwards of 300-500 J/kg have led to more expansive
convective development this afternoon across parts of Maricopa and
Pinal Counties. Thus far, some of the stronger thunderstorms that
have developed late morning and early this afternoon have led to
some small hail (~pea size) with some areas seeing some
accumulating hail. In addition to lightning, accumulating small
hail, along with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, will
continue to be the primary weather impacts with any additional
strong thunderstorms this afternoon.
Locally heavy rainfall totals have already been observed in areas
that have ended up under strong thunderstorms. Based on the latest
FCDMC obs, the highest rainfall amounts thus far have been upwards
of 0.75-1.00" in the Phoenix as a result of strong thunderstorms
passing through the area. Minor nuisance flooding may occur in areas
that experience these thunderstorms, but the threat for any flash
flooding will remain low. Areas that don`t end up under a
thunderstorm should generally see light rainfall amounts with most
areas that have seen shower activity thus far seeing observed
amounts under 0.25". Phoenix Sky Harbor has picked up 0.15" so
far today. The latest CAMs show this activity winding down heading
into this evening as the cold core continues in its eastward
progression. This lines up well with the latest NBM PoPs, which
quickly drop below 20% going through the evening.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Fast on the heels of today’s system will be another short-wave
trough that will dive southward into southern California this
evening. With the lingering low-level moisture, the threat of
isolated showers will continue overnight, particularly across the
lower deserts of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona.
One final trough will move into northwestern Arizona Friday,
which will promote the development of isolated convection across
the Mogollon Rim in the afternoon.
In the wake of the late week trough, a fast-moving ridge will
slide through the western CONUS this weekend. This will translate
into height rises and a steady warming/drying trend through early
next week. Latest NBM indicates a return to above normal
temperatures by Sunday/Monday with lower desert highs generally in
the lower 80s. Thereafter, there is a considerable increase in
uncertainty as a series of Pacific troughs move into the
intermountain West. Some extended ensemble members and operational
models even suggest the pattern may ultimately evolve into a
block by the middle to end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2330Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT;
Most of the rainfall activity has pushed east of the region,
though a lingering shower or two cannot be completely ruled out
prior to sunset. Winds have switched out of the E are likely to
stay that way through the evening and overnight hours. A few gusts
upwards of 20 kts are possible over the next few hours before
winds calm by late this evening. Persistent low-level cloud cover
can be expected over the region through most of the TAF period
with the lowest bases around 5-7 kft
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period.
Breezy conditions will exist at IPL this evening with gusts
upwards of 25 kts prior to sunset. At BLH, winds will be light
with extend periods of variability likely through much of the
overnight hours. Low-level cloud cover will prevail over the
region through tonight before skies clear by late Friday
morning/early Friday afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A moistening trend will continue today as a low pressure system
moves through the Desert Southwest. The highest chances (40-60
percent) for wetting rains will be concentrated in the foothills
and higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. However, showers
and isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across the
Arizona lower deserts. The strongest storms be capable of
producing brief heavy rain and wind gusts to 30 mph. A warming and
drying trend is likely Friday through early next week as high
pressure builds across the intermountain West.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Smith
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hirsch
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
536 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 1231 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
As was mentioned in the morning update, our region has been
in between areas of forcing pretty much all day as we await an
uptick in convection this afternoon into the overnight hours from
the west. Regional radar mosaic shows this uptick in convection
between the I-35 and 45 Corridors and across the Tx Hill Country
and in this is the leading edge of forcing downstream of our main
trough axis which as of this aftn was just now entering the Four
Corners Region of the Country. 12z progs and associated CAMS are
in pretty good agreement that this forcing west of our region
currently will overspread our region overnight with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms the result. Have followed a
close blend of the HRRR and HREF concerning precip timing
overnight which suggests a marginal elevated hail threat across
our northwest half through the predawn hours as sfc based
instability will be really lacking per the latest NAM output until
closer to 12z Friday out west.
It`s during this timeframe and especially near and just post-
sunrise Friday Morning that we begin to see sfc cyclogenesis
developing in the vicinity of N TX with a trailing dryline coming
into the I-35-45 Corridors with this feature expected to traverse
almost due east into the Piney Woods of NE TX and NW LA during
the day Friday. A descent warm sector develops in advance of the
sfc dryline with SB CAPE values nearing 2000 J/KG with lapse
rates near 7.5 to 8 deg/C which continues to suggest a strong
likelihood of large hail across our entire region on Friday. Deep
Layer shear values are in the order of magnitude that organized
convection will be a distinct probability with the likelihood of
supercell thunderstorms as well. There continues to be
discontinuity in the progs however with the greatest low level
directional shear exiting our region to the east by the time the
best instability arrives ahead of the dryline late Fri Morning
through the afternoon and evening which could limit our tornado
threat. What could change that would be locally enhanced SRH if
low level winds are allowed to back slightly in advance of the sfc
low and this will need to be monitored very closely during the
day Friday. All this to say that large hail followed closely by
damaging winds will be the main threats on Friday with an isolated
tornado threat also possible if the lack of low level directional
shear can be overcome by the sfc low itself.
Cold front will eventually catch the dryline/warm front merger
late Friday evening/night with the convection ending from west to
east across our region late Friday Night. A very strong post
frontal pressure gradient will encompass our region late Friday
night into Saturday resulting in strong northwest winds not to
mention a surge of colder air.
13
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1231 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
Much colder air will infiltrate the region in the wake of the cold
front Friday Night resulting in a much cooler weekend. A strong
pressure gradient will be in place Saturday which will result in
strong northwest winds but likely just under Wind Advisory
Criteria. The gradient will begin relaxing quickly Sat Night and
assuming skies are able to clear, should see overnight low
temperatures Sat Night ranging from the lower 40s across our
southern zones to temperatures near freezing across the foothills
of the Ouachitas in SE OK and SW AR.
The cold air will not hang around long as temperatures begin
moderating quickly to begin the upcoming work week. The quick
warmup will be aided by retuning southerly winds underneath a weak
upper level trough that will traverse the Southern Plains Mon/Mon
Night with little fanfare. There will be another weak trough
quickly on its heals Tue into Tue Night before a much larger
longwave trough tries to anchor itself across the Intermountain
West Wed into Thu of next week. Southwest flow aloft downstream of
this trough appears significant enough that small pops were added
to the Wed Night/Thu portion of the forecast for now.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
For the 08/00Z TAFs, a mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs will deteriorate
with increasing -RA across east Texas airspace. Showers and storms
will increase in coverage late tonight and into tomorrow morning,
with widespread SHRA and TSRA reflecting these impacts. CIGs will
become MVFR in the coming several hours, reaching IFR at most
sites by or shortly after 08/12Z and continuing through the
morning before rebounding into the afternoon. Winds will remain
southerly through the night at sustained speeds of 10 to 15 kts,
beginning to shift through the day tomorrow as a front passes
through the region, becoming easterly and eventually northerly
late in the forecast period. Gusts up to 20 kts are likely, with
higher values possible in the vicinity of stronger storms.
/26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 63 75 52 62 / 80 70 30 0
MLU 62 71 55 64 / 80 80 30 0
DEQ 55 70 42 59 / 80 70 50 0
TXK 60 72 48 60 / 80 70 40 0
ELD 58 69 48 60 / 80 70 40 0
TYR 62 78 47 59 / 80 70 10 0
GGG 62 76 48 60 / 80 70 20 0
LFK 65 79 50 61 / 80 70 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26