Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/07/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
500 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 338 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
Key Message
-Fog/low clouds return both marine and land this evening.
The main concern will be the low cloud/fog issues as we get into one
more night with sea fog over the Coastal Bend. Fog and low clouds
are beginning to move shore near Matagorda bay, but it doesn`t last
long as the fog mixes out over land. The low clouds look like they
stall up there for a few hours, before moving south along the coast.
Forecast soundings show that the stratus starts in the early
evening, then builds down to the sfc, with the sfc fog in and out
for a while until around 09z/Thu, and then stays and moves inland.
There is a concern that the somewhat higher winds tonight will be
enough to keep it as stratus, not letting it build down. Model
soundings lean more toward fog, although the HRRR leaves some room
for patchy fog and stratus. Consensus short model and GLAMP data
show more of a up and down with the visibilities. So will leave the
current patchy fog and allow the evening shift to monitor trends.
Thursday, the fog will lift by mid morning again, if not sooner, but
it will remain hazy over the region. Winds will remain onshore all
day, which will help the Gulf water temperatures warm, limiting the
fog chances going into Thursday night. A pre-frontal trough moves
through the region overnight, but the real support (500 mb jet
streak) trails the trough, and is focusing the precipitation to the
north in the Hill Country. Winds will remain onshore in the Coastal
Bend, but will diminish as trough moves into the Brush Country,
allowing for some fog formation again early Friday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
Key Messages:
-Isolated to Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms in the Victoria
Crossroads and Coastal Bend
-Elevated Fire Weather Conditions possible over the Brush Country
and Rio Grande Plains Friday and Saturday
The forecast has be remaining pretty steady for the long period. As
the we progress during the day Friday, a prefrontal surface trough
will develop ahead of the cold front that will push through later in
the day. With above normal moisture ahead of the trough (1.6-1.8
inches), sufficient CAPE values (900-1200 J/kg), and a relatively
uncapped environment around the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads
showers and thunderstorms are possible (20-40%) Friday morning
through midday. This prompted SPC to clip a portion of the Victoria
Crossroads in a Marginal for severe weather which coincides with the
higher CAPE values. The front should push offshore by 20-23Z, with a
reinforcing surge coming behind it later on that night. Out west
with the front arriving earlier, the potential for fire weather
conditions exist during the day Friday in the Rio Grande Plains and
Brush Country. Conditions will taper off during the evening before
ramping up again over the same areas Saturday. Minimum RH values
will drop below 20% Friday and will be around 20% Saturday.
Temperatures behind the front will be more spring like with highs in
the 70s. Warmer conditions return by the middle of next week with
highs returning to the 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 449 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
VFR conditions will persist for the next several hours over South
Texas. MVFR ceilings will develop around 03Z for those over the
Coastal Plains and points east. MVFR to IFR visibility is possible
as dawn approaches, mainly along the coast. VFR conditions will
return to the area by midday Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
Weak onshore flow will become weak to moderate tonight, then persist
through Thursday. Areas of fog may occur over the bays and
nearshore waters, as well, Thursday night/Friday morning before
the cold front moves through the region. The combination of an
upper level disturbance and a prefrontal trough of low pressure
may contribute to isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms Friday. A cold front will move across the waters
Friday night and Saturday morning. In response to the front,
strong to very strong offshore flow is expected over the coastal
waters Saturday through early Sunday creating Small Craft Advisory
conditions. Winds will transition to weak to moderate northeast
by Sunday night, as the surface pressure gradient relaxes before
becoming weak by Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 66 78 69 85 / 0 10 0 20
Victoria 64 78 67 83 / 0 10 10 40
Laredo 71 90 69 87 / 0 10 10 10
Alice 66 82 68 87 / 0 10 0 20
Rockport 64 75 66 83 / 0 10 0 20
Cotulla 68 85 67 87 / 0 10 10 10
Kingsville 66 80 69 84 / 0 10 0 10
Navy Corpus 66 74 67 81 / 0 10 0 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...LS/77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
541 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for rain (20-40%) increase from south to north
throughout the day on Thursday, with chances (40-80%)
becoming widespread Thursday afternoon.
- Most areas will see light rain, with uncertainty remaining on
how widespread the higher totals are.
- A band of light snow (0.1-1") will move through the area
overnight Thursday into Friday morning. The highest chances
to see an inch of snow are northwest of the Tri-Cities
- Above normal temperatures return this weekend and continue
next week with highs in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
This afternoon through overnight...
Breezy southerly winds with gusts of 25-30mph will decrease this
evening. Lows tonight will be in the low (north) to upper 30s
(south). A cold front will move through the area overnight, with
winds becoming northerly by sunrise. Chances for rain (20-50%)
enter southern portions of the area before sunrise on Thursday.
Thursday...
Chances for rain (30-80%) increase from south to north across the
area during the day on Thursday, with a 50-80% chance across
the area by the afternoon. A few non-severe thunderstorms are
possible across portions of north central Kansas during the
afternoon and evening hours on Thursday.
The ECMWF and it`s ensembles place the highest chances (40-60%) for
0.5 inches or more of rain across portions of north central Kansas.
The GFS and it`s ensembles have precipitation more widespread, but
have lower chances to see half an inch or more (20-40% across the
area). Higher resolution guidance continues this uncertainty, with
the NAM placing a band of heavier rainfall across portions of north
central Kansas, and the HRRR having lighter but more widespread
precipitation. Regardless of the exact amounts, most areas will see
light rain.
Thursday Evening through Friday...
Rain will transition to snow along the backside of the system as it
progresses east overnight Thursday. Areas northwest of the Tri-
Cities may see a transition to snow during the late evening hours on
Thursday. The band of snow along the backside of the system will
move southeast across the area during the morning hours on Friday,
exiting southeastern portions of the area during the early afternoon
hours on Friday. Accumulations are expected to remain light, with
most areas remaining under half an inch. The highest chances to see
an inch of accumulation are northwest of the Tri-Cities where snow
will occur longer.
Temperatures will be cooler on Friday, with highs in the upper 30s
to low 40s. Winds will be gusty throughout the day on Friday, with
winds decreasing overnight.
Saturday through Wednesday...
Any lingering snow will quickly melt this weekend as an upper level
ridge builds over the area. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper
40s to low 50s, climbing to the 60s on Sunday, and into the upper
60s to start next week. Warm temperatures along with breezy winds
will lead to the return of fire weather next week. Currently
relative humidity values are forecast to remain above fire weather
criteria (RH < 20%), but if relative humidity values become
lower than what is currently expected, fire weather concerns
would increase. The next chance for rain (15-20%) arrives
Wednesday with an approaching trough.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
VFR conditions are expected at both terminals this evening and
into the overnight hours. Southeasterly to south-southeasterly
winds will decrease this evening, becoming light and variable
overnight. An advancing cold front tonight will shift winds to
the north-northwest around sunrise, with winds increasing behind
the front. Additionally, with the arrival of the front, expect
ceilings to lower to MVFR levels. After sunrise, a few showers
will be possible through the morning, with rain chances (40-70%)
increasing by mid to late morning and continuing through the end
of the forecast period.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Wekesser
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
522 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for a rain/snow mix arrive Friday morning, although when
and where the transition from rain to snow will occur is still
uncertain. Highest snowfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches likely to
be confined to east-central Wisconsin.
- Rest of the forecast period looks to be mild and dry with
temperatures running around 8 to 12 degrees above average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Thursday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high
pressure centered over northern Ontario and James Bay. Northeast
or east winds emanating out of the high continue to feed in very
dry air below 10 kft across the region. Satellite estimates place
precipitable water values around 25% of normal over far northern
WI early this afternoon. Looking upstream, a storm system is
moving northeast across the northern Plains, spreading widespread
overcast conditions into the northern Mississippi Valley.
Precipitation mainly exists to the north and northwest of the
surface low positioned over northern South Dakota as southeast
winds feed dry air into the system. Forecast concerns mainly
revolve around low precip chances and low humidities.
Sky and Precip Chances: Low pressure will reorganize as it tracks
northeast from the northern Plains and into Manitoba and Ontario
on Thursday. As a result of this track, strong forcing will remain
well northwest of the region. Wisconsin will be positioned
between this dynamic forcing and gulf moisture spreading into the
Kansas-Missouri area, so no precip is expected even with the cold
front approaching northwest WI by late Thursday afternoon.
However, mid-clouds will spread across the region tonight and hang
around for part of the day on Thursday. Models also indicate low
stratus will get recycled to the northwest from southern Lower
Michigan and into east-central WI on Thursday afternoon. This
moist low level flow could also lead to an increase of cloud cover
on Thursday.
Temps: Low level temperatures will continue to slowly warm through
Thursday afternoon. Clouds will partially offset this warming
trend, so look for highs similar to today`s readings on Thursday
afternoon. Low temps will be warmer tonight due to more boundary
layer wind and cloud cover.
Low Humidities: Low level moisture will increase as the flow turns
to the southeast on Thursday. After minimum humidities between
20-25% this afternoon, minimum humidities should increase to
30-35% on Thursday afternoon. Low wind speeds and high fuel
moisture should continue minimize fire weather concerns even with
the low humidities.
Long Term...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Main focus for the extended will be a tale of two surface lows
bringing rain/snow chances to the forecast area Friday morning.
The first surface low and trailing cold front are progged to move
across the northern Plains before clipping the Minnesota
arrowhead Thursday afternoon and ejecting north into Ontario.
Meanwhile, another surface low will trek from the southern Plains
up into the Midwest, bringing more widespread precip chances to
the western Great Lakes. As the system departs to the northeast
over the weekend, upper-level ridging will then keep most of the
Midwest mild and dry.
Friday and Saturday precip chances... Precip chances enter the
forecast area Friday morning as a shortwave drops south into
Wisconsin and confluent flow sets up across the Great Lakes.
During this time, a warm front is expected to lift north across
Illinois while a concurrent cold front sweeps east across
Wisconsin. Precip type will be a hindrance to the forecast as
there are several sources of uncertainty regarding boundary layer
temperatures and moisture content throughout the column. Light
warm air advection rain will likely spread north across central
and eastern Wisconsin Friday morning, although the strongest
signal for isentropic ascent ahead of the warm front remains to
our south. Strongest forcing then arrives later Friday morning as
a cold front moves east across the upper Midwest. Models are
picking up on a moderate mid-level FGEN band associated with the
cold front, suggesting that periods of locally heavy precipitation
may be possible. However, pinpointing the transition from rain to
snow will be tricky. Any precip that falls early Friday morning
will have to contend with mid-level dry air before the column
saturates, suggesting that seeder feeder processes may be dominant
during this time. Thus, chances for patchy drizzle/freezing
drizzle would not be out of the question. Opted to leave freezing
rain out of the forecast. A near isothermal layer hovering right
around 0 degrees C up to ~850 mb introduces additional uncertainty
as well. Precip will likely transition to mostly snow Friday
evening as post-frontal temperatures fall to the low 20s to low
30s across the area. Highest snowfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
will mainly be confined to east-central Wisconsin where strongest
FGEN sets up. Light snow may continue into Saturday morning as
cyclonic flow and cold air advection linger on the back end of the
exiting system.
Rest of the extended... Following the weekend`s system, upper-
level ridging will build into the Great Lakes region to keep the
prevailing weather mild and dry through the extended.
Predominantly south/southwesterly winds will advect warmer air up
into the region, resulting in temperatures running around 8 to 12
degrees above average for this time of year. Next chances for
precip arrive toward the end of the forecast period, although
details are sparse this far out.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 522 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
VFR conditions and dry weather will continue through Thursday
afternoon as high pressure begins to exit the region. Clouds will
increase tonight from west to east but should generally remain
about 9-12 kft.
A lower cloud deck is forecast to spread into east-central WI from
the south and east Thursday afternoon and drop cigs to MVFR
conditions by 00Z Friday as moisture from an approaching system
moves into far southwest WI.
There will be a period of LLWS through the night over northern WI
and late tonight over central WI as winds at 2K ft reach 30-35
knots.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC/Goodin
AVIATION.......Kallas
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1012 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures and an active weather pattern will persist
through the weekend. A frontal system moves off the Carolina coast
tonight taking the rain with it. Dry high pressure briefly controls
our weather late tonight and Thursday. A more robust low pressure
tracks across the Southeastern States from Friday into the weekend
bringing more heavy rain and possible storms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Evening Update...An upper trof axis is swinging across the FA
currently and the attendant sfc low is still supplying light wrap
around precip across the nrn zones. Expect this rain to continue to
weaken and dissipate over the next few hours. Moisture at h85 is
beginning to lower across the wrn zones while downslope drying is
occurring across the Upstate and adj fhills zones. This is making for
a tricky fog forecast as any areas that experience increased rad
cooling will be suspect for dense fog formation overnight as sfc
tdd/s are quite high due to recent precip and winds will remain on
the low end. Blended the HRRR and the LAMP visibility guidance as
these models are picking up on the latest trends previously not well
handled by the op models. The Lakelands, including KAND, shud have a
decent shot of dense fog formation and possibly the Upstate thru
daybreak. The I-77 corridor, including KCLT, may hold on to enuf low
clouds for much of a dense fog issue.
As of 200 PM...Low temps will remain above normal with lows mainly
in the 40s to lower 50s. Thursday looks like a pleasant day, as mild
sfc high pressure crosses the forecast area. There should be little
to hold fog and stratus in, so clouds should scatter out by around
midday, leaving partly to mostly sunny skies and continued light
wind. Highs will be about 10-12 deg above normal, upper 60s to lower
70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM Wednesday: A shortwave trough will be digging into the
Desert Southwest tomorrow night with downstream shortwave ridging
extending along the Appalachians. Weak easterly low-level flow will
advect an uptick in moisture from the Atlantic across the Carolinas
with a resulting increase in cloud cover along with a few upslope
showers on the Blue Ridge escarpment. Thickening clouds will
preclude much overnight cooling with mild low temperatures in the
low to mid 50s. The synoptic pattern begins to amplify on Friday as
the upstream trough continues to dig across northern Mexico with a
resulting strengthening of the upper ridge extending along the East
Coast. While heights will rise across the region, clouds and
continued upslope showers in the mountains will limit heating with
high temperatures confined to the low to upper 60s.
The forecast becomes much more active Friday night into Saturday as
the upstream trough ejects out of northern Mexico and into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Lee cyclogenesis is progged to occur across
northeast New Mexico with the surface low lifting across the Great
Plains and into the Great Lakes region by Saturday morning. A
trailing cold front is forecast to extend through the Ohio Valley to
western Tennessee with a warm front draped roughly along the I-20
corridor. 12z guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the
initiation of deep convection along the warm front across southern
Mississippi during the day on Friday. Upscale growth into a
convective complex appears likely with time with this activity
propagating east overnight along the warm front. Subsequent rain
cooled air north of the front in concert with convective cold pools
will strengthen the warm frontal boundary and help to lock in the
boundary along or just south of the I-20 corridor. Furthermore,
positive tilt of the upper trough and a relatively weak surface low
will result in increasingly veered flow with upper flow oriented
parallel to the warm front, which further suggests limited northward
progress of the warm sector. Thus, the overall forecast is for
elevated thunderstorms and an associated broad stratiform shield to
lift into the area from the southwest overnight Friday into Saturday
morning with the primary deep convective updrafts anchored on the
warm front along I-20. This activity will translate across the area
through much of the day Saturday with precipitation gradually
tapering off from west to east through the mid to late afternoon.
Given the expected southward placement of the warm front, severe
weather is not expected at this time. Should the warm front nose
into the lower Piedmont, a severe weather threat cannot be ruled
out, however, parameter space appears rather disjointed with better
shear profiles lifting away from the area before the arrival of
surface-based instability. The main hazard will be for flash
flooding concerns given antecedent wet conditions from today`s rain.
At least a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE will be possible
north of the warm front with the warm frontal circulation helping to
provide additional forcing for heavy rain potential. A plume of deep
moisture with 1.5" PWATs moving into the Upstate and Piedmont. If
convective rainfall rates materialize, a quick couple inches of rain
could result in several instance of flash flooding. The ongoing
slight risk for excessive rainfall from WPC is well placed based on
current guidance.
Otherwise, there are indications that a CAD wedge will become
established, especially along and north of the I-40 corridor, which
will result in another cold and rainy day with high temperatures
struggling to reach the 50 degree mark. Have trended temperatures on
the cool side of guidance for this reason.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 246 PM Wednesday: A few showers may linger across the
mountains and far eastern Piedmont Saturday evening before all
precipitation quickly comes to an end. Thereafter, the cold front is
expected to push through the area overnight with a drier and cooler
airmass filtering into the area. Cold advection shuts off by Monday
with modification of the airmass through early next week fostering a
return to 70 degree temperatures by Wednesday. Several mornings will
also be conducive for radiational cooling with clear skies and light
winds in the dry air. While afternoon RH values may fall to near
critical levels for fire danger, wet fuels from recent rains should
limit any fire danger.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A mix of MVFR/IFR across all TAF sites this
evening as a sfc low is slowly pushing precip and deep moisture
east. Have a general downward trend fcst/d for CIGS at all sites to
IFR and/or LIFR before daybreak. Decent confidence is had in
limiting VSBY to the IFR range with low-end mixing and high cloud
cover, however, thinking KAND and lakelands area will have a shot of
clearing possibly leading to dense fog before and thru daybreak. VFR
conds return to all sites by mid-morning to noon, while winds remain
fairly weak and generally aligned n/ly to nw/ly thru the period.
Outlook: Another frontal system moves in late Friday thru Saturday.
This will bring rain chances and associated flight restrictions as
early as Friday, continuing into Saturday, then improving on Sunday
as drier air moves in behind the departing front.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...SBK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
926 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
Relatively quiet weather prevailed over the Midsouth this evening.
GOES IR shows low stratus over parts of west TN and north MS.
Aloft, the subtropical branch of the upper level jet was spreading
high clouds into the region. GOES west showed these high clouds
extended out to the tropical Pacific, south of Hawaii.
As mentioned in the Aviation Discussion below, the low stratus may
expand overnight, while the high level cirrus/cirrostratus will
likely become thicker. With dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower
50s, temperatures should only modestly cool overnight. With light
winds, patchy fog can`t be ruled out, mainly over northeast MS.
Current forecast is on track. Only minor additions made for patchy
fog overnight.
PWB
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 150 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
A low pressure system will bring wet and unsettled weather
tomorrow and Friday. Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase
tomorrow afternoon, becoming more widespread with the occasional
strong thunderstorm by Friday afternoon. After the cold front
moves through Saturday, dry weather with seasonable temperatures
in the 50s and 60s returns through the rest of the weekend into
midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
Post-frontal stratus is still lingering across much of the Mid-
South, especially west Tennessee. This will likely keep
temperatures in the mid 60s today across west Tennessee while
portions of north Mississippi creep into the low 70s under mostly
clear skies. Cloud cover is expected to gradually erode tonight
as the front pulls farther away, which will support patchy fog
development especially along the MS-TN state line. The latest
HRRR is highlighting a corridor from Corinth, MS to Oxford, MS
with patchy dense fog overnight through sunrise.
A low pressure system currently over the southern Plains will very
slowly approach the Mid-South tomorrow. As the system approaches,
a secondary surface low looks to materialize over the Upper
Mississippi River Valley on Friday morning. The trailing cold
front from this second system will be the kickstarter for strong
to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Global
models` ensemble solutions suggest the corridor of favorable
instability (30-50% probability of CAPE > 500 J/kg) to be
displaced to the southwest over the ArkLaTex and Gulf Coast while
the convection moves through the Mid-South. Overall joint
probabilities of supportive instability AND shear during the time
of convection and FROPA is fairly low. In other words, the
kinematics and dynamics of this system may not line up. This is a
low confidence, conditional event. If strong to severe storms do
develop, damaging winds and large hail would be the primary
threats Friday afternoon and evening.
Both the initial and reinforcing cold fronts are forecast to clear
the area by Saturday afternoon. The airmass behind the front
originates from the Pacific and thus will not make a noticeable
difference in temperatures post-FROPA. The coolest morning of this
forecast package looks to be Sunday morning just after the front
passes, aided by both cold air advection and radiational cooling
under mostly clear skies and light winds from surface high
pressure. NBM probabilities of temperatures below 32 degrees are
less than 20% areawide Sunday and Monday mornings, but it will
still be chilly and seasonably cool both days.
Forecast surface analyses depict a 1024 mb surface high sitting
right over north Mississippi by Monday morning. This will create a
very pleasant start to the work week with cool, sunny days and
afternoon highs in the mid 60s. As the surface high slides over to
the East Coast midweek, return flow will set up again and a
gradual warming trend will commence. The next chance of rain looks
to arrive next Wednesday night as another weak cold front
approaches.
CAD
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
Edge of low-stratus is located east of a line from DYR-MEM-OLV.
Some clearing has occurred at MEM in the past hour and
necessitated a change from the previous forecast at MEM for the
short-term. However, latest hi-res guidance suggests the
potential for this low stratus (MVFR/IFR conditions) to move back
in overnight at MEM around 8Z and around 12Z at JBR as low-level
flow veers NE. MVFR and perhaps IFR conditions expected to be more
persistent at MEM/TUP. Ceilings expected to improve by Thursday
afternoon. Light winds will gradually veer SE on Thursday. Rain
showers have been included at JBR in this TAF set for Thursday
afternoon.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CJC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1036 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic Coast will move east and
away from the area tonight...the rain gradually coming to an
end. After a dry day Thursday, another storm system moves in
from the west Friday into Saturday with more rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 655 PM EST Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) Rain ends tonight. Patchy fog after midnight.
3) Dry Thursday.
Upper low had advanced into central Virginia. Surface low
pressure was off the southeast Virginia and coast and the wind
has turned to the west over the mountains and foothills. Once
the upper low progresses a bit farther northeast, coverage of
rain will diminish. No changes to temperature forecast at this
time.
Previous Discussion
As of 655 PM EST Wednesday...
Radar showed light rain over a large part of southwest Virginia,
northwest North Carolina, and southeast West Virginia. High_res
HRRR and other models show little change through 03Z/10PM. Have
increased probability of precipitation to account for radar
trends through the evening. Expect coverage of rain to diminish
after midnight, followed by patchy fog. No changes to
temperatures at this time.
Previous Discussion
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...
Wet Wednesday will transition into a dry Thursday. Low pressure
which has provided an abundance of cloud cover and a gentle
soaking rain will move east and off the coast tonight. Clouds
may linger long enough to prohibit a lot of fog formation, but
if there is any clearing, watch out for patchy dense fog. High
resolution models suggest best chance of fog and lowest
visibility to occur along the western slopes from the WV
highlands southwest to along the Cumberland Plateau and from Mt
Rogers southwest along the NC/TN border. With lingering clouds,
temperatures will change very little with lows ranging from the
upper 40s to lower 50s.
Thursday will feature a dry day with partial clearing. There
will be no significant change in airmass, temperatures remaining
relatively mild for the time of year...highs in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...
Key Message:
1. Another storm system is expected to impact the area Saturday.
Upper ridging will be in place Thursday night and into Friday.
Surface high will build over southeast Canada and begin to wedge
south along the Appalachians. Low pressure will develop over the
Central Plains Friday night and will transition east through
Saturday. This will provide another round of rainfall to the region.
Friday will be mostly dry with high pressure building in. As the
cold air wedge becomes better entrenched throughout the day, could
begin to see some upslope clouds and some light rainfall along the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge as early as Friday evening.
Southeast flow will continue to strengthen into Friday night and
Saturday morning, so coverage of showers should begin to increase.
Saturday will be a raw and rainy day as cold air wedge is maximized.
Went below most guidance and especially went below the NBM which was
on the warmer side of guidance for highs on Saturday. Perhaps a non
diurnal curve will be possible for Saturday, starting warmer early on
and cooling as the day progressed. Regardless, highs in the mid/low
40s seems likely with perhaps higher elevations in the 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1. Cold front brings cooler temperatures back into the region.
2. Dry high pressure into next week.
Primary surface low tracks into Pennsylvania and southern New York
by Sunday morning, along with a trailing cold front. Much cooler and
gusty at times for Sunday as a strong upper low drops into New
England. Could have gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range for the
mountains through Sunday night and into Monday morning. Winds
begin to taper down through the day Monday as pressure gradient
relaxes and low level jet shifts offshore.
Heights will begin to build into the mid-week and high pressure
begin to build overhead. Temperatures quickly moderate and highs
Tuesday/Wednesday will be back to well above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 PM EST Wednesday...
Closed upper low over North Carolina will lift into Virginia
overnight. Widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings are expected through
06Z/1AM along with VFR to MVFR light rain. Once the coverage of
rain diminished after midnight, MVFR fog will develop,
especially in the mountains and along the western slopes of the
central Appalachians as the surface wind turns to the northwest.
Patches of IFR to LIFR fog may develop late tonight if there is
any clearing.
Some breaks in the clouds are expected on Thursday as conditions
gradually improve to VFR by afternoon. Surface wind turns back
to the north then northeast on Thursday.
Average confidence on ceiling, visibility, and wind.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Dry weather is expected Thursday night and Friday. Another low
pressure system arrives late Friday into Saturday with more rain
and widespread MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys, with rain occurring
Friday night and most of Saturday.
Sunday will be drying out with lingering upslope rain/snow
showers over BLF/LWB with windy conditions. Breezy conditions
will continue into Monday.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...AMS/PM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1004 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- No significant changes to the forecast. Confidence in the
forecast remains high through the weekend.
- There is an 80 percent or better chance for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night.
- Blustery colder conditions move in on Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
19Z water vapor imagery showed a board cyclonic pattern
persisting over the western U.S. A closed low was lifting
through the northern plains while another shortwave trough moved
onshore along the CA coast. Surface obs showed high pressure
ridging into northeast KS at 19Z. But a developing lee trough of
low pressure in the central high plains had allowed return flow
to develop across western KS.
For tonight through Friday there isn`t a lot of change to the
forecast. There is a little more concensus from the RAP/NAM/GFS in
the warm front lifting into Anderson and Coffey counties by Thursday
evening. Even the HREF mean MSLP suggests the warm front lifting
into east central KS. The RAP and NAM show the potential for CAPE
value to range from 500 to 1000 J/kg along the warm front with 0-6km
bulk shear around 40KT. This could be enough for some organized
updrafts and perhaps some marginally severe hail late in the
afternoon and during the evening. Otherwise widespread rainfall is
likely (grater than 80% chance) Thursday and Thursday night. The
initial shortwave looks to lift across the forecast area around mid
day and the latest CAMs have showers and embedded thunderstorms
moving northeast in waves. So it shouldn`t be a constant rainfall
but periods of showers and thunderstorms. The NBM mean continues to
show rain amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.5 inches. However the 12Z
ECMWF has shifted precip south and east. Think this may be due to a
trend in the models taking the main shortwave further south on
Friday. The forecast still has rain amounts from around two thirds
of an inch over north central KS to near 2 inches in Anderson
county. But there could be some risk for lower amounts across the
northern counties. The 50th percentile for QPF from the GFS and
ECMWF ensembles shows less than a half inch across the northern
counties. As for flooding concerns, the latest stream data from the
USGS shows the Marais des Cygnes and Neosho river basins are near
normal with the northern rivers below normal on stream flow. Plus
soils are in the middle 40s and around 50 degrees per the KState
mesonet. So rainfall should be able to soak into the soils as long
as the rain doesn`t come down to fast. The only other change to the
forecast was to lower high temps for Friday. There is good consensus
for a strong northernly winds to advect in colder air as precip and
cloud cover inhibit insolation. Think temps on Friday may hold
steady in the 40s without much of a diurnal change.
Surface ridging remains over the area on Saturday keeping temps
close to seasonal normals. Then southerly return flow sets up
leading into next week with mild and dry weather returning. The
forecast as highs around 70 by Monday. The next chance for precip
looks to come Tuesday night and Wednesday of next week. While there
are still some differences in the models, they are beginning to show
a similar idea of a progressive shortwave and frontal boundary
moving through. Will have to keep an eye on the quality of the
moisture return ahead of the front.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1003 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024
MVFR and possible IFR conditions with rain moving into the area will
impact airports Thursday. Have pushed back the arrival time of these
conditions by just an hour or so Thursday morning with the 06Z TAF
update. Rain with a chance for isolated embedded thunderstorms
will continue for much of the period without much improvement
in flight categories until later on Friday.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Teefey