Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/05/24
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
528 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 150 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
A 500mb shortwave briefly disrupts the zonal mid-level flow,
bringing a brief burst of instability and extra lift this evening
into tonight. MUCAPE values top 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear above
45 kts and 3-6km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. Of course, there’s also
very low shear at 0-1km, lapse rates near 5.5 C/km at 0-3km, a
quickly building cap by the evening, and a strong inversion towards
the coast limiting convective initiation. Early runs of the HRRR
today piqued some interest in the convective setup, with multiple
strong cells firing across the border between 8 and 11 PM this
evening. Most other CAM guidance has remained clear, with the later
runs of the HRRR today finally following suit. That being said, if
something were to fire west or southwest of the border, large hail
could be possible. Have left POPs below 15 percent.
A weak boundary and northerly wind shift arrives Tuesday morning
before fizzling out into the afternoon as easterly winds take back
over into Tuesday night. Temperatures tonight sit into the upper 60s
for most, with highs on Tuesday bumping up a few degrees from today
with the additional sunshine and maybe some compressional heating,
helping locations in the mid to upper valley and ranchlands top 90
degrees.
Marine fog will persist beyond the short term period, with much
warmer air and higher dewpoints roaming over cooler SSTs in
generally light onshore winds. A near perfect setup for dense marine
fog events along the coast this time of year. Have taken the Dense
Fog Advisory offshore into Tuesday morning and additional advisories
may be needed as dense fog comes and goes.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
A quasi-zonal mid/upper level flow will transition to a
meridional mid/upper level flow by the end of the week as a series
of shortwaves/closed lows push through California and the
intermountain west. The net result will be dry conditions with
above normal temperatures through Fri. Thu is expected to be the
warmest day of the week with some areas of the Rio Grande Plains
and Upper Valley pushing 90 degrees or just above. Onshore flow
will become more pronounced through Thu night given the
approaching low pressure both aloft and at the surface across the
Central and Southern Plains. The moist flow will keep abundant
cloud cover with the potential for fog during the overnight and
morning hours. During the afternoon and evening the cloud cover
should tend to mix out and allow for at least partial sunshine.
The last of these southern stream shortwaves will push an
associated cold front through the CWA on Fri. Could see a shower
or two with the front but that would be it. For now will keep POPs
below 10% with the front. The better push of cooler and drier
conditions is not expected until Fri night into the weekend as the
surface high pressure surges southward into the CWA. Temperatures
over the weekend into Mon morning are expected to be below
normal with a prevailing N/NE flow.
Could see elevated fire weather conditions for the Lower Valley on
Sat given the lower humidities and stronger winds behind the
front.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
VFR conditions will give way to MVFR east to west this evening. As
we head into the overnight IFR/LIFR conditions are expected again
and will linger into at least mid morning. Along with lowered
ceilings fog development is expected with latest guidance coming
in a bit more bullish with dropping visibilities. As mentioned in
the previous discussion AWWs may be needed later tonight into
early Tuesday. A cold front will improve ceilings and visibilities
with VFR likely to return around midday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 150 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Tonight through Tuesday night...Marine fog remains the story
through the short term and beyond across coastal waters.
Conditions may briefly improve at times, before deteriorating once
again. The current Dense Fog Advisory has been extended into mid
Tuesday morning. Additional advisories may be needed. Light
onshore flow may briefly turn northerly early Tuesday, before
easterly winds return Tuesday night. Mariners will otherwise find
generally favorable bay conditions and seas offshore. A couple of
showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight into early Tuesday,
mainly beyond 20 nautical miles.
Wednesday through Monday...Sea fog will continue to be in the
forecast through Fri morning, especially from Port Mansfield
northward. The coverage of the sea fog and intensity should tend
to lessen each day as the winds increase and become more
southeasterly with time. Also, the SSTs should slowly rise ever so
slightly each day with surface dewpoints remaining around the
same. Small craft advisory conditions will be likely by Fri night
into Sat night as high pressure surges southward through the
Lower Texas coastal waters behind the Fri cold front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 69 84 66 82 / 10 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 66 87 63 83 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 68 91 66 88 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 65 91 65 89 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 74 65 73 / 10 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 67 80 63 79 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135-
150-155.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....80
AVIATION...68
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS
915 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 915 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Weak lift around the boundary layer from earlier heating had
resulted in a few early evening showers forming mainly west of I-65,
heading northward around 20 mph. This activity, similar to showers
that earlier affected areas east of the interstate has faded as a
more stable environment is realized. After a nice early March day
with highs in the low/mid 70s in many spots, 8 pm temperatures have
cooled into the low/mid 60s, with e-se wind of 5 to 10 mph. Model
guidance from the LAMP, as well as older output from the NAM and GFS
were generally keeping winds greater than 5 mph. This should help
hamper fog formation in the late night.
But a stronger system moving to the ENE across central Mississippi
will be near this area in the overnight, and it will return chances
of showers and thunderstorms to the Tennessee Valley. New output
from a variety of models makes for lower confidence regarding good
timing on when precip will reach this area. Most of the models have
showers falling apart as they move further to the ENE (into a more
stable environment). Am thinking that more like what the HRRR or ARW
are showing. That said, the heaviest and better rain chances look
like they will occur sometime during the day Tue. The overall
forecast otherwise with increasing rain chances look good for now.
Low temperatures should cool into the mid 50s east to around 60
west.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
The convective regime described above will likely be ongoing across
the TN Valley around sunrise on Tuesday, but should spread eastward
with time through the late morning hours, with our attention during
the afternoon focusing on a cold front approaching the region from
the northwest. Present indications are that a band of showers and
thunderstorms tied to the front will sag southeastward into at least
the northwest portion of the CWFA late Tuesday afternoon or evening,
but should be on a weakening trend as it enters our region due to
the stabilizing impacts of morning clouds and precip. A separate but
perhaps more widespread stratiform precipitation regime may expand
northward into the TN Valley during the overnight hours (into early
Wednesday morning) associated with the passage of the mid-level
shortwave to our southeast, but there is some uncertainty regarding
where this will occur. Regardless, it appears as if the greatest
probabilities for rainfall in the short term period will occur on
Tuesday/Tuesday night.
During the timeframe from Wednesday-thursday night, global models
indicate that a low amplitude ridge aloft will build across the
region both in the wake of the departing shortwave and in advance of
a broader upper trough organizing across the southwestern CONUS.
This configuration will maintain cloudy skies and the presence of a
warm/humid airmass, but little chance for rain. Showers and perhaps
a few thunderstorms associated with the approaching upper trough may
begin to spread eastward into our region as early as late Thursday
afternoon (but more likely Thursday night)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 159 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
A wet and stormy period is forecast for the end of the workweek
into the start of the weekend. The aforementioned low pressure
system pushes through the forecast area Friday into Saturday
bringing high chances (70-80%) of showers and storms. While severe
weather is not anticipated with this system as the better dynamics
are displaced to our south, the main concern will be the potential
for flooding. PW values are forecast to range between 1.25-1.5
inches, which is above the 90th percentile based on sounding
climatology`s from BMX. The latest QPF forecast calls for 2.5-3.5
inches of rainfall Friday through Saturday. Looking at the NASA
SPORT streamflow products, rises along area rivers and streams
appear likely. Minor flooding areawide is also possible given this
rainfall will be on top of the 1-1.5 inches expected with the
system earlier in the week. WPC has placed most of the CWA in a
slight risk for excessive rainfall that could result in flash
flooding on Friday. While the rainfall totals are almost
certainly going to change given we are still 5 days out, this
will be something to keep an eye on as we head through the
workweek.
Dry and cooler air looks to return to the area behind a cold
front passage late Saturday into Sunday morning. Afternoon highs
on Sunday only top out in the upper 50s with overnight lows
dropping down into the low to mid 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
A weak disturbance that triggered a few showers/storms mainly east
of the I-65 corridor have for the most part dissipated. A steady
wind greater than 5 kt should help keep fog development minimized
tonight. Another disturbance nearing from the west should bring more
chances of showers towards daybreak, with better showers/t-storm
chances in the late morning and afternoon. For now, stayed with
prevailing SHRA with isold thunder mixed in. MVFR CIG and/or VSBY
values are expected in and near heavier showers. SE winds of 5- 15
kt early in the TAF should back more to the east and subside to
around 5 kt during the day Tue.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAN
SHORT TERM....JAN
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...JAN
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
629 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Scattered thunderstorms have developed along the approaching cold
front in an environment with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-35 kts
of bulk wind shear. Though most of the severe weather has remained
north of Knox/Lewis/Adams counties, we have seen brief severe as far
south as far northeast Missouri. This is likely due to a sharp
decrease in bulk shear with southeastward extent, leaving the most
favorable severe conditions to our north. A 30-35 kt southwesterly
LLJ will help increase the coverage of showers and thunderstorms
overnight, though consistently diminishing shear will cause
convection to weaken with time. Because of diminishing surface based
instability and bulk shear, the highest potential for strong to
severe weather will last from now through through the next few
hours. Large hail and isolated damaging winds will continue to be
the primary hazards while thunderstorms remain surface based. As
thunderstorms become elevated, this threat will transition to large
hail
Jaja
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
-A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and
early overnight as a cold front moves southeast into the area.
-After a couple days of record highs, cooler temperatures are
expected starting on Tuesday.
-The next chance for rain and a few thunderstorms will be Thursday
through Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Latest surface analysis is showing a cold front extending from a
surface low over central Kansas northeastward through northern Missouri
and southeastern Iowa into northern Illinois. The latest runs of the
RAP/NAM is showing this front moving east into central and northeast
Missouri/west central Illinois by late this afternoon and early this
evening. Latest SPC mesoanalysis is showing MLCAPES around 1500 J/kg
with little CIN and deep layer shear of 35-40 knots. The latest run of
the HRRR is showing scattered thunderstorms with some high dBz cores
developing as early as 23Z which develops into a line and pushes
southeast before becoming disorganized after 06Z. Regional soundings
are initially uncapped, but become quickly capped after sunset and the
best deep layer shear is behind the front which suggests that storms
will remain elevated and that large hail will be the main threat in any
strong to severe storms followed by damaging winds. The showers and
scattered storms will continue to move southeast and before moving out
of the CWA on Tuesday morning.
Tuesday night looks dry behind the front as cooler and drier air moves
in behind the front. While temperatures tomorrow and tomorrow night
will still be 10 degrees above normal, they will be notable cooler than
today.
Britt
&&
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Wednesday still looks dry as a low amplitude ridge/surface high moves
through the Midwest. Then a series a troughs will move across the
Missouri and Illinois Thursday through Saturday bringing several
chances of rain and a few thunderstorms during this period. Model
guidance is showing good agreement that most of the area should see at
least 0.50" of rainfall during this time period with >50% chance of any
given location seeing 1.00". Sunday and Monday are expected to be dry
as the main trough moves off to the east.
Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will be about 10 degrees above
normal as 850mb temperatures will be around 5C. Temperatures by the
weekend will fall closer to normal behind a cold front.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in central
and northeast Missouri along a southeastward pushing cold front.
There will be the potential for thunderstorms impacting each
terminal as the front passes, but direct impacts aren`t certain so
maintained VCTS for now. Storms are also expected to gradually
weaken with time and southern extent. In the strongest storms, heavy
rain, small hail, and wind gusts in excess of 35 kts are possible.
Any storm that passes over will have the capability to reduce
ceilings and visibilities as well.
Otherwise, gusty southerly winds will quickly turn northerly behind
the front. IFR ceilings are expected to follow the front as well and
stick around through tomorrow morning. Ceilings will improve to MVFR
thereafter and will likely remain sub-VFR through the afternoon.
Jaja
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 253 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024
Another round of very warm weather is expected this weekend into
early next week. Daily record high temperatures are possible. The
table below lists the record highs at the climate locations in our
service area.
MON MARCH 4
St Louis 79 in 1974
Columbia 80 in 1938
Quincy 73 in 1961
Record Max Minimums for March 4
St Louis 57 in 1992
Columbia 56 in 1983
Quincy 58 in 1983
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
608 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1248 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Early afternoon surface observations and visible satellite imagery
showed a scattered to broken stratocumulus deck over much of the
state. Temperatures had climbed into the lower to mid 70s across
north and eastern Arkansas with upper 70s and a few sites topping
80 degrees in south and western Arkansas. Regional doppler radar
network observed isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms primarily over southwest Arkansas. Some very light
rain showers or areas of rain sprinkles were found across portions
of central Arkansas. The 12Z LZK weather balloon showed a
pronounced area of steep lapse rates from 800 to 600 mb, and
another from 500 to 300 mb. In between and below were inversions
due to an elevated mixed layer and subsidence, respectively. Using
the 12Z weather balloon in conjunction with RAP upper air analysis
and objective surface analysis, the SPC mesoanalysis page progged
approximately 2500 J/KG of CAPE, or energy for thunderstorms, over
south and central Arkansas. CAPE values fell to 1500 to 2000
closer to the Missouri border and across parts of west central
Arkansas where low-level moisture advection had not yet moistened
up the boundary layer as much as it has for points east across
Arkansas. Water vapor satellite imagery showed a weak shortwave
trough over Arkansas moving to the northeast with weak shortwave
ridging upstream out ahead of a larger, but broad, upper level
trough roughly oriented over the high plains.
Although SPC mesoanalysis shows the thermodynamic environment over
Arkansas has 2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE with no significant inhibition
in place, the atmosphere doesn`t just "auto-convect", especially
with indications of backed winds and a subsidence inversion
located at approximately 800 mb aloft in place. Something needs to
provide forcing for ascent to get storms going this afternoon and
this evening, and forcing for ascent is notably diffuse and weakly
organized today. Where convection initiation has already taken
place, roughly from southwest Arkansas south over western
Louisiana, surface observations do indicate a weakly oriented line
of confluence with southeast winds over LA and southwest winds
over far east TX providing some low-level convergence to focus
initiation efforts. As this line of confluence became more ill
defined to the north in Arkansas, convection was less prevalent at
the time of this discussion. The NAM and HRRR both offer up some
variation on the theme of this line of confluence moving north
later this afternoon into this evening, spreading some scattered
convection north across portions of central and western Arkansas.
Have a 30-40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms roughly
following this confluence line north-northwest across the state
following model guidance.
We are under a marginal risk of severe storms through 12Z which
covers the remainder of the day today and the early morning hours
of Tuesday. The thermodynamic environment and two areas of steeper
lapse rates aloft will certainly support rapidly developing
thunderstorms through tonight. If we had a more supportive shear
profile, it would warrant a greater risk of severe storms,
however, based on the 12Z LZK weather balloon and forecast
hodographs of winds aloft, the shear profile should continue to
support a short lived storm mode through tomorrow morning. Using
the 12Z LZK hodograph as a visual example, the shear profile
extends pretty quickly to the northeast before circling back
around a couple of times in the middle atmosphere (2-6 km range)
before extending back out to the east at anvil level (8km+).
WEDNESDAY:
The beginning of the long-term forecast period on Wednesday will see
a dynamic storm system exiting the region with a sfc low pressure
center positioned across the Ohio River Valley region of the CONUS
and a chance at some wrap around moisture behind this center of low
pressure extending back into Arkansas. Despite this wrap around
moisture, chances for precipitation look meager and this will likely
be our driest day until Sunday. Expect overcast skies with
temperatures remaining above climatological normals for this time
of the year.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
The three day period of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will provide
our highest rainfall totals of the week across the CWA and state of
Arkansas. Thursday will begin with decent rain and thunderstorm
chances nudging back into the forecast as a sfc low pressure center
deepens across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle with an attendant warm
front extending southeastward into central Texas. Expect on Thursday
to begin to see rain and thunderstorms chances increase across the
Natural State in advance of the warm front boundary.
On Friday, a barrage of sfc features will assist in dictating our
weather across Arkansas. The main players will be two sfc low
pressure centers, one across the ARK-LA-TEX region of the CONUS with
an attendant warm front extending eastward along the
Arkansas/Louisiana border into the Deep South region of the CONUS.
The second sfc low pressure center, will be planted across Missouri
with an attendant cold front extending southwestward into Oklahoma
on approach to the Natural State. Expect on Friday high chances of
widespread rain and thunderstorm activity with these two features
working in tandem.
Saturday will be the beginning of a transition as both low pressure
centers at the sfc both push well east of the state and the cold
front pushes through by Saturday afternoon. Expect on Saturday, for
rain and thunderstorm chances to continue, but drastically begin to
diminish with the FROPA.
Rainfall totals beginning from Monday afternoon/evening through
Saturday will range from 1.5 inches as much as 2+ inches of
rainfall. It will not be out of the realm of possibility for a
location to receive 2.5+ inches of rainfall, especially across
southeastern Arkansas; however, higher rainfall totals will likely
be hit and miss depending on if a location experiences an efficient
cell at producing rainfall.
SUNDAY/NEXT MONDAY:
The beginning of the long-term forecast period on Wednesday will see
a dynamic storm system exiting the region with a sfc low pressure
center positioned across the Ohio River Valley region of the CONUS
and a chance at some wrap around moisture behind this center of low
pressure extending back into Arkansas. Despite this wrap around
moisture, chances for precipitation look meager and this will likely
be our driest day until Sunday. Expect overcast skies with
temperatures remaining above climatological normals for this time
of the year.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
The three day period of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will provide
our highest rainfall totals of the week across the CWA and state of
Arkansas. Thursday will begin with decent rain and thunderstorm
chances nudging back into the forecast as a sfc low pressure center
deepens across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle with an attendant warm
front extending southeastward into central Texas. Expect on Thursday
to begin to see rain and thunderstorms chances increase across the
Natural State in advance of the warm front boundary.
On Friday, a barrage of sfc features will assist in dictating our
weather across Arkansas. The main players will be two sfc low
pressure centers, one across the ARK-LA-TEX region of the CONUS with
an attendant warm front extending eastward along the
Arkansas/Louisiana border into the Deep South region of the CONUS.
The second sfc low pressure center, will be planted across Missouri
with an attendant cold front extending southwestward into Oklahoma
on approach to the Natural State. Expect on Friday high chances of
widespread rain and thunderstorm activity with these two features
working in tandem.
Saturday will be the beginning of a transition as both low pressure
centers at the sfc both push well east of the state and the cold
front pushes through by Saturday afternoon. Expect on Saturday, for
rain and thunderstorm chances to continue, but drastically begin to
diminish with the FROPA.
Rainfall totals beginning from Monday afternoon/evening through
Saturday will range from 1.5 inches as much as 2+ inches of
rainfall. It will not be out of the realm of possibility for a
location to receive 2.5+ inches of rainfall, especially across
southeastern Arkansas; however, higher rainfall totals will likely
be hit and miss depending on if a location experiences an efficient
cell at producing rainfall.
SUNDAY/NEXT MONDAY:
An upper lvl ridge approaches in cohesion with sfc high pressure and
the modified airmass which will now be much cooler and drier after
the FROPA from Saturday. Temperatures in terms of both lows and
highs will be lowered down to values at climatological values that
are normal for the time of the year. Expect dry and clearing
conditions with mostly clear skies on both Sunday and next Monday.d drier after
the FROPA from Saturday. Temperatures in terms of both lows and
highs will be lowered down to values at climatological values that
are normal for the time of the year. Expect dry and clearing
conditions with mostly clear skies on both Sunday and next Monday.eteor growth
zone. Within the precipitation growth zone, the air becomes more
or less stationary in the inertial frame of reference of the
nascent updraft concentrating hydrometeors within the primary
updraft corridor. This will cause most of the heavier hydrometeors
to fall back within the updraft, providing very little separation
between warm rising air and rain cooled air, setting up a self
limiting process of individual thunderstorm cell propagation.
In this environment, thunderstorm cells will develop quickly, even
supporting broad hail cores aloft for 30 to 45 minutes. The size
of the hail isn`t likely to get very big however due to the rain
cooled air of 20-25 deg C/K cooler than the updraft air overtaking
low-level updrafts and causing upright hail core growth to be even
more limited than the life of the thunderstorm itself. As a
result, think that 1" hail is the largest hail we could
consistently expect, with smaller hail much more common. A 20-25
degree theta e/moisture difference with height is sufficient to
drag some higher momentum air down to the surface, so some
microburst/damaging winds are also possible. Overall expect the
coverage of severe storms to remain limited, but thunderstorm
coverage itself may increase to scattered in nature later this
afternoon into this evening.
For Tuesday, thunderstorm activity is expected to remain closely
tied to a cold front expected to makes its way southeast across
Arkansas throughout the daylight hours. The front itself could
cause thunderstorms to increase in coverage to scattered to
numerous, but a similar thermodynamic and shear environment will
be in place, so expect similar impacts from storms with marginally
severe hail and a few damaging wind gusts possible near the state
out ahead of and along the front. The front is expected to move
southeast of the area by Tuesday evening, with cooler and drier
air moving into place at least for Wednesday before a bigger storm
system arrives to end the work week.
Cavanaugh
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1248 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
WEDNESDAY:
The beginning of the long-term forecast period on Wednesday will see
a dynamic storm system exiting the region with a sfc low pressure
center positioned across the Ohio River Valley region of the CONUS
and a chance at some wrap around moisture behind this center of low
pressure extending back into Arkansas. Despite this wrap around
moisture, chances for precipitation look meager and this will likely
be our driest day until Sunday. Expect overcast skies with
temperatures remaining above climatological normals for this time
of the year.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
The three day period of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will provide
our highest rainfall totals of the week across the CWA and state of
Arkansas. Thursday will begin with decent rain and thunderstorm
chances nudging back into the forecast as a sfc low pressure center
deepens across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle with an attendant warm
front extending southeastward into central Texas. Expect on Thursday
to begin to see rain and thunderstorms chances increase across the
Natural State in advance of the warm front boundary.
On Friday, a barrage of sfc features will assist in dictating our
weather across Arkansas. The main players will be two sfc low
pressure centers, one across the ARK-LA-TEX region of the CONUS with
an attendant warm front extending eastward along the
Arkansas/Louisiana border into the Deep South region of the CONUS.
The second sfc low pressure center, will be planted across Missouri
with an attendant cold front extending southwestward into Oklahoma
on approach to the Natural State. Expect on Friday high chances of
widespread rain and thunderstorm activity with these.
The beginning of the long-term forecast period on Wednesday will see
a dynamic storm system exiting the region with a sfc low pressure
center positioned across the Ohio River Valley region of the CONUS
and a chance at some wrap around moisture behind this center of low
pressure extending back into Arkansas. Despite this wrap around
moisture, chances for precipitation look meager and this will likely
be our driest day until Sunday. Expect overcast skies with
temperatures remaining above climatological normals for this time
of the year.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
The three day period of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will provide
our highest rainfall totals of the week across the CWA and state of
Arkansas. Thursday will begin with decent rain and thunderstorm
chances nudging back into the forecast as a sfc low pressure center
deepens across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle with an attendant warm
front extending southeastward into central Texas. Expect on Thursday
to begin to see rain and thunderstorms chances increase across the
Natural State in advance of the warm front boundary.
On Friday, a barrage of sfc features will assist in dictating our
weather across Arkansas. The main players will be two sfc low
pressure centers, one across the ARK-LA-TEX region of the CONUS with
an attendant warm front extending eastward along the
Arkansas/Louisiana border into the Deep South region of the CONUS.
The second sfc low pressure center, will be planted across Missouri
with an attendant cold front extending southwestward into Oklahoma
on approach to the Natural State. Expect on Friday high chances of
widespread rain and thunderstorm activity with these two features
working in tandem.
Saturday will be the beginning of a transition as both low pressure
centers at the sfc both push well east of the state and the cold
front pushes through by Saturday afternoon. Expect on Saturday, for
rain and thunderstorm chances to continue, but drastically begin to
diminish with the FROPA.
Rainfall totals beginning from Monday afternoon/evening through
Saturday will range from 1.5 inches as much as 2+ inches of
rainfall. It will not be out of the realm of possibility for a
location to receive 2.5+ inches of rainfall, especially across
southeastern Arkansas; however, higher rainfall totals will likely
be hit and miss depending on if a location experiences an efficient
cell at producing rainfall.
SUNDAY/NEXT MONDAY:
An upper lvl ridge approaches in cohesion with sfc high pressure and
the modified airmass which will now be much cooler and drier after
the FROPA from Saturday. Temperatures in terms of both lows and
highs will be lowered down to values at climatological values that
are normal for the time of the year. Expect dry and clearing
conditions with mostly clear skies on both Sunday and next Monday. two features
working in tandem.
Saturday will be the beginning of a transition as both low pressure
centers at the sfc both push well east of the state and the cold
front pushes through by Saturday afternoon. Expect on Saturday, for
rain and thunderstorm chances to continue, but drastically begin to
diminish with the FROPA.
Rainfall totals beginning from Monday afternoon/evening through
Saturday will range from 1.5 inches as much as 2+ inches of
rainfall. It will not be out of the realm of possibility for a
location to receive 2.5+ inches of rainfall, especially across
southeastern Arkansas; however, higher rainfall totals will likely
be hit and miss depending on if a location experiences an efficient
cell at producing rainfall.
SUNDAY/NEXT MONDAY:
An upper lvl ridge approaches in cohesion with sfc high pressure and
the modified airmass which will now be much cooler and drier after
the FROPA from Saturday. Temperatures in terms of both lows and
highs will be lowered down to values at climatological values that
are normal for the time of the year. Expect dry and clearing
conditions with mostly clear skies on both Sunday and next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Ongoing convection wl cont to affect the central and southern AR
fcst sites into early this evening. FLight conds wl vary between
low end VFR and MVFR, with some brief IFR conds in heavier storms.
CAMS show that this activity wl sloly dcrs in coverage aft sunset
this evening. Chcs for additional convection later tngt and Tue
are not as clear cut. Opted to include VC groups, along with
some PROB30 groups, on Tue with a CDFNT fcst to enter AR fm the
NW.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cavanaugh
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...44
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
549 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the Mid-South
tonight into Tuesday ahead of a slow moving cold front. Dry
weather returns to the region on Wednesday behind the cold front.
Rain chances will steadily increase again ahead starting on
Thursday in advance of a new storm system. Showers and
thunderstorms will move through the region Thursday through
Saturday. Dry and cooler weather is expected for Saturday night
and Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with
temperatures in the lower 70s to the lower 80s. A cold front
currently extends across extreme eastern Kansas through central
Oklahoma and into central Texas. Some showers and thunderstorms
have already developed ahead of the front with some activity in
southeast Arkansas.
The cold front will continue to move east tonight reaching
northwest Arkansas by Tuesday morning. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will gradually increase tonight across the Mid-South.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight, mainly west
of the Mississippi River with hail and gusty winds as the main
threats. Temperatures will be quite mild for early March with lows
in the low to mid 60s.
The cold front will make its way into the Mid-South by late
Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will become more
widespread on Tuesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
on Tuesday mainly west of the Mississippi River. Temperatures
will be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday with highs in the low to
mid 70s. The cold front will continue to move southeast reaching
north Mississippi by Wednesday morning with additional showers and
thunderstorms moving through the region.
Once the cold front moves out of the region on Wednesday, dry and
cooler weather returns by afternoon and continues through
Wednesday night. A large storm system will move into the southern
Plains on Thursday, then continue moving east through Friday
night. This system will spread more showers and thunderstorms
across the region from early Thursday morning through Saturday
afternoon. Any severe weather should remain south of the Mid-South
during this period, but locally heavy may be possible over
portions of north Mississippi.
High pressure will start to build into the region Saturday
afternoon with dry and cooler weather for Saturday night and
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Challenging convective forecast, with cluster of vigorous TSRA
over the Arklamiss lifting north. Coldest (highest) cloud tops
are lifting north toward MEM, while also developing west toward
central AR. HRRR appears to be diminishing this convection too
quickly with loss of surface heating - at least on the east side.
A 2 hour TEMPO TSRA should hold at MEM, with convection likely
weakening by the start of the inbound push, while persisting
longer through the evening around JBR.
Warm advection -SHRA will be possible at all TAF sites overnight,
but should have limited impacts.
TSRA timing for Tuesday a bit difficult to pin down, but will
likely be tied to surface heating/destabilization, midlevel height
falls and surface cold front. At this time this points toward the
18Z Tuesday to 02Z Wednesday time frame.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...PWB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
727 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very challenging forecast tonight with some wet snow expected.
Narrow band of several inches of snow is a possibility
somewhere through central Upper MI. At a minimum, untreated
roads and sidewalks will develop icy spots overnight after
precipitation ends as temperatures fall into the 20s.
- Mostly sunny skies Tue/Wed with above normal temperatures
continuing through the end of the week, especially away from
the lakeshores
- A low pressure system developing to the southeast brings a
20-40% chance of rain and snow Friday into Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 306 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2024
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show that the vigorous negative
tilt shortwave that was lifting thru the Dakotas 24hrs ago is now in
far northern Ontario. A weaker shortwave is noted over SD, but more
importantly, latest RAP analysis shows a 150kt upper jet streak
extending from northern MN toward James Bay. Upper diffluence from
the right entrance of this jet streak is aiding a ribbon of
strengthening low-mid level fgen from the Upper Mississippi Valley
ne across Upper MI early this aftn. As a result, clouds have quickly
thickened into Upper MI today, and -ra (some -sn far w) has already
spread/developed out of WI into the w half of Upper MI. Pcpn
continues to develop upstream in WI, including some thunder as well
as snow on the the western portion of the pcpn area. Over eastern
Upper MI, sunny skies thru the morning allowed temps to surge to the
lwr 60s F. Building mixed layer has tapped the very dry air aloft
that surged into the area behind last nights shra. This has resulted
in RH crashing to 15-20pct over portions of the eastern fcst area.
Very challenging fcst is shaping up for the rest of the aftn into
tonight. Ribbon of low-mid level fgen, cutting sw to ne across Upper
MI, will continue to organize and strengthen into this evening under
favorable upper diffluence associated with aforementioned jet
streak. The strong fgen with -epv noted near the top of the sloping
fgen suggests we could be in for streaks of mdt/hvy pcpn across the
fcst area this aftn/evening, especially centered thru the central
and eastern fcst area based on the eastward translating fgen. Sfc
temps are well above freezing early this aftn, but with intensifying
pcpn falling thru dry mid to low levels, column cooling thru
evaporative cooling and upward motion will support snow falling
progressively closer to the sfc with time. And thus the fcst becomes
quite challenging. When and where does pcpn switch to snow as the
last bit of sfc based above freezing layer erodes, and will it occur
soon enough during the period of strongest forcing. Given the setup,
potential is certainly there for a surprise this evening. The 12z
NAMnest narrow streak of nearly an inch of pcpn in 3hrs thru a
portion of central Upper MI is certainly not an impossibility, and
this of course raises the concern for a narrow stripe of very
hvy/wet snow somewhere in central Upper MI. However, there is little
confidence in forecasting any narrow bands of hvy pcpn, including
hvy snow, late aftn and evening. Best bet is for sufficient cooling
to occur across the w into the higher terrain n central for at least
some snow accumulations late aftn/evening. While forecast only
reflects snow accumulations around an inch, several inches of snow
and hazardous travel are a possibility across portions of the
central and eastern fcst area this evening. Unfortunately, not
really going to know if hvy snow is going to occur until it actually
begins to develop. In addition to the ptype issues, there is some
mid-level instability noted, so a few rumbles of thunder are also
possible this evening across roughly the e half of Upper MI. Pcpn
will rapidly end from w to e tonight, ending w early this evening
and exiting the e (Luce County) probably at around 08z at the
latest. Temps will settle back to the low/mid 20s w and around 30F e
by sunrise. So, untreated wet and/or slushy pavement will develop
icy spots overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2024
In the wake of tonight`s bands of precipitation, 300 mb flow becomes
confluent over the local area, which will allow higher pressure to
build in from the northwest. The upstream airmass is not all that
cold, and 850mb temps will still be warmer than normal. So while it
will be cooler than recent days for most areas, temps will still be
above normal. It will, however, be a very dry airmass, with PWATs
approaching 1 stdev below normal, averaging around 0.15" and
resulting in mostly sunny skies. The cooling trend will be most
prominent along the Lake Superior shoreline thanks to the onshore
flow, with highs in the 30s. The interior west should see deeper
mixing with highs in the low to mid-40s. Wednesday looks similar but
with highs a couple degrees warmer. This is a good setup for
dewpoints to fall further than models indicate with dry air above
the surface mixing down, resulting in relative humidity values
likely falling to around 30 percent in the interior west Tuesday and
20-30 percent Wednesday. Fortunately, winds should be rather light,
which should limit fire weather concerns.
By Thursday, a shortwave trough and its associated surface
reflection track from the northern Plains into southern Ontario.
This will result in increased mid and high clouds and slightly
higher low-level moisture, but low levels will still likely be too
dry to support precipitation. Another mild day on tap with highs
mainly in the 40s.
The system`s cold front looks to track through on Friday, resulting
in a bit of a cooling trend. As loosely-organized troughing ejects
out of the southern Plains, it`s likely that a surface low develops
along the remnant SW/NE oriented baroclinic zone extending into the
southern Great Lakes. Depending on the track of this low, widespread
stratiform rain and snow are a possibility, with the 12Z GFS showing
the snowier end of the spectrum. However, this is on the western
edge of the envelope compared with the GEFS members, and the
ECMWF/EPS mean are further to the southeast. Bottom line at this
point is NBM forecast of 20-40 PoPs (highest east) looks good, with
rain/snow mentioned as the weather type. Probability of a widespread
significant snowfall is lower than this, likely around 10-20 percent
when averaging the EPS and GEFS probabilities. Should a more
westerly track pan out, lake effect snow could linger into Saturday
as well. Regardless, it looks like temps will be closer to seasonal
normals by the weekend on the back side of this system, with highs
mainly in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 726 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2024
VFR returned to IWD and CMX this evening as precipitation tapered
off. And, VFR is expected to prevail until the end of the TAF
period. At SAW, however, MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail into
early tonight with pockets of heavy rain and eventually a rain/snow
mixture over the next several hours. VFR will also return to SAW
though, too, after Tue 06z when precipitation ends. Winds will
shift from southwest to northwest, but speeds will not be impactful.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2024
Southwesterly winds remain elevated for the western/central lake
into this evening ahead of a cold front with 25-30kt gusts
continuing. Winds diminish to 20 kt or less as they turn northerly
behind the front tonight into Wednesday morning. Northeasterly winds
increase to 20-30kt Wednesday over the western arm of the lake, but
currently the gale potential is low (<20%). Southeasterly winds
increase to 20-30kt over the north-central on Thursday. Looking
ahead, northerly winds could increase to near 30 kt Friday night
into Saturday morning as low pressure develops to the southeast.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
LSZ249>251.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...Thompson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower and thunderstorm chances (30-70%) mainly east of
Highway 65 tonight into Tuesday morning. Marginal risk of a
severe storm.
- Cooler through mid to late next week, with temperatures
remaining 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the 60s.
- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances, especially
Thursday and Friday (70-90%).
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
A surface cold front currently extends from northeast Missouri
to the southwest across east central Kansas into northeastern
Oklahoma early this evening. Showers and storms have developed
along and north of the front from portions of central Missouri
into northeastern Missouri on to the northeast. The upper level
trough is currently moving east across the northern Plains and
the better upper level energy in to the north, where the better
convection is occurring. The updrafts across central Missouri
have struggled to get going due to not being collocated from
the better upper level support.
Upper level short wave energy is also located across
southeastern Arkansas early this evening. Additional showers and
storms have developed across east central Arkansas ahead of this
feature.
The cold front will continue to slowly move east/southeast into
the area this evening then across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Isolated showers and storms will be possible across portions of
central Missouri from now through the evening hours out ahead of
the front. The convection across Arkansas will also lift
north/northeast this evening and could clip portions of south
central Missouri. As the upper level energy across Arkansas
lifts north and the front moves south into the area scattered
showers and storms are expected to develop along and ahead of
the front, with the best chances east of Highway 65 late this
evening into the overnight hours.
Deep layer shear will not be overly strong across the region as
the better upper level support will be to the north, but with
MUCape value of 1500 to 2000 J/kg a few strong to severe storms
will be possible late this evening and tonight into Tuesday.
Hail to the size of quarters will be the main risk, but there
will also be a localized damaging wind risk with any lines of
storms that can develop.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Current mesoanalysis and water vapor imagery depict an upper-
level longwave trough centered over the Mountain West with a
60-70 kt mid-level jet draped across the northern Plains, just
NW of Missouri. At the surface, a weakening surface low pressure
is progged over eastern KS beneath weaker upper-level flow.
Associated with the system, a cold front is draped across
central KS into the TX/OK panhandles, and a warm front has just
lifted past the MO/IA border. Just above these features, a
30-40 kt low-level jet is sprawled over Missouri. With upper-
level dynamic support continually displacing from the surface
features, they should generally weaken as they move ENE over the
next 6-12 hours.
Temperatures well above normal with highs in the 70s and near 80:
The warm air mass that brought yesterday`s record highs is still
in place today. Mid and high level clouds are inhibiting
temperatures from reaching the same warmth as yesterday, but
with 850 mb temps at 12-14C and 15-25 mph southerly flow, highs
are still expected to get into the upper 70s, nearing 80.
Current NBM probs have a 50% chance for Springfield to break
today`s record of 79 set in 1938. Other climate sites may also
have their records tied or broken today. See the Climate section
below for more details on those. Additionally, lows tonight will
stay mild near the mid-50s before a cold front drops through the
region. Lows near the MO/KS border will be in the mid-40s for
this reason.
30-70% chance of thunderstorms; Marginal Risk of a severe storm:
Continued southerly flow has gradually been advecting in more
moisture. Dewpoints have reached the upper 50s for much of the
region, and around 60F near West Plains. The warm temperatures
and decent moisture have destabilized the atmosphere across our
area with RAP soundings currently depicting 1500-2500 J/kg of
SBCAPE and 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, increasing to 1250-2000
J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Such CAPE in February clocks in a
0.8-0.9 Extreme Forecast Index for CAPE values. This combined
with modest deep-layer shear of 15-25 kts has prompted a
Marginal (1/5; 5%) risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
into the overnight hours.
Despite the risk, slight capping across the Springfield area,
and upper-level ascent support displaced well off to the NE will
keep thunderstorm coverage rather isolated (15-30% PoPs) through
this evening. The greatest chance for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms before midnight will be further in the warm sector in
south-central MO--around the West Plains area--where an
uncapped atmosphere is experiencing higher instability due to
increased moisture. Latest visible satellite observations have
noted more agitated cumulus clouds in this region. CAM guidance
have semi-consistently been suggesting convection in this region
after 4 PM. HREF paintballs depict a 10-30% chance of
thunderstorms during the 4 PM to midnight timeframe. Main
uncertainty is in initiation due to the factors described at the
beginning of this paragraph. Additionally, with relatively
skinny CAPE profiles and some mid-level dry air, updrafts may
struggle to achieve deep convection for a while. If storms do
form here, in addition to being isolated to scattered, lower
shear values of 15-20 kts with "M" hodographs will keep storms
single cellular to multicellular. Nevertheless, with decent
instability and moisture, any storm could produce isolated gusts
up to 60 mph and hail up to an inch. These warm sector storms
are possible in this region all from 4 PM to 2 AM.
The greatest chance for thunderstorms (30-70%) comes when the
cold front slowly sags through the region during the course of
the night. Greater low-level forcing should initiate at least
scattered elevated thunderstorms along the front in a SW to NE
oriented band, beginning along the KS/MO border. Greater
thunderstorm chances occur the further north you go where
greater upper-level support and low-level frontogenesis exists
(50-70% chances). CAMs support this with some, notably the HRRR,
decreasing thunderstorm coverage toward the SW corner of MO
(30-50% chances). MUCAPE values will hover in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range, and 0-6 km bulk shear values will be at 15-20 kts all
night ahead of the front. This will support the marginal risk of
severe weather with hail up to an inch being the main threat
with this line of mainly elevated convection. Since the main
forcing will be along the cold front, isolated wind gusts up to
60 mph also cannot be ruled out. Timing of this band of
thunderstorms will be in the Joplin to Versailles region
between 8-11 PM, Springfield to Vichy between 10 PM and 1 AM,
and West Plains region from midnight to 4 AM. Coverage of
thunderstorms along the front is expected to decrease as they
enter south- central MO towards the morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Tuesday: Models are decent agreement that the cold front will
continue moving southeast into Arkansas through the day. Some
scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near or just
behind the front across south central Missouri during the
morning or early afternoon however general consensus is for
mostly dry conditions during the day. Northerly winds and cool
air advection looks to keep the low clouds in place for most of
the day per the latest HREF data. NBM temp data generally
supports highs in the lower 60s along and north of I-44 however
areas south of I-44 should reach the middle to upper 60s given
the later front arrival.
Wednesday: Weak mid level ridging looks to keep the lid on any
precip potential with chances less than 15 percent. Still seeing
a decent amount of mid/high clouds which will keep highs in the
middle 60s.
Thursday through Friday: Ensemble cluster analysis supports an
unsettled/high rain chance scenario for both these days as
southwest flow aloft supports several shortwaves moving into the
area. Rain looks to arrive Thursday morning and may last off
and on through Thursday night as low pressure develops south of
the area and a front remains nearly stationary across the area.
We will also have strong lift aloft with the left exit region of
a 120kt upper level jet. A steady, continuous 30-40kt low level
jet will pump up higher quality moisture into the area as well.
Rain chances are in the 70-90% range during this timeframe but
more importantly are the high probs for rainfall amounts above
0.5 inch (currently around 90%). Chances for 1 inch or more are
currently around 60-70%. Therefore this looks like a decent
setup for a widespread, moderate rainfall with rainfall amounts
at least a half to one inch. If we are able to get any
convective elements then the rainfall amounts could be higher.
Saturday through Sunday: There is some model variance with
respect to the exit of the precip late Friday night or Saturday.
Currently, rain chances of 30-40% remain into Saturday however
there is low confidence in these chances as its dependent on the
shortwave departure. We have higher confidence that
temperatures will drop into the lower 50s for highs on Saturday
and middle 50s for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 430 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Surface low pressure is location across eastern Kansas
currently. Gusty southerly winds are occurring ahead of the low,
but will weaken around sunset and the low moves east.
Isolated to scattered shower and storms will be possible this
evening but the better chances will be across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks. The low and cold front will move through
the region tonight into Tuesday. Additional scattered showers
and storms will be possible long the front. MVFR to IFR
conditions will be possible with the showers and storms.
Behind the front winds will become northwesterly to northerly
and MVFR ceilings are expected through Tuesday morning. Ceilings
should improve Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Record High Temperatures:
March 4:
KSGF: 79/1938
KJLN: 77/1961
KVIH: 77/1961
KUNO: 80/1955
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
March 4:
KSGF: 56/1983
March 5:
KSGF: 56/1992
Record Precipitation:
March 7:
KSGF: 0.95/1905
KJLN: 0.46/1995
March 8:
KVIH: 0.95/1958
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Burchfield/Price
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Melto