Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/04/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
542 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A line of thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
and move through northwest Wisconsin. The line may be strong
to severe for an hour or two.
- Low relative humidities are possible Tuesday through Thursday
raising concern for fire weather, but at least winds will be
fairly light.
- Cooler temps, although still above normal, this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
A lot of kinematics out there this afternoon as a potent area of
low pressure moves north through western Minnesota. Satellite
imagery has a lot of cloud cover which is limiting temperatures,
but that warm front should push north with temperatures in the
60s just south of it which happens to be right along the
forecast area boundary causing a triggering mechanism for storm
activity. While thermal profiles are not good for surface based
storms further north, around 23-01Z this afternoon there will
be a small window where elevated instability is expected to
spark a line of showers and thunderstorms that will move through
NW WI with the warm front. While we are not outlooked for
severe weather, sometimes these high shear low buoyancy
scenarios are capable of producing severe weather. There is
about 500 J/kg of elevated CAPE near KHYR at 00Z this evening
with the inversion around 850 mb. Effective shear on the
hodograph is charting in at 200-400 m2/s2 which if surface based
would be a large tornado threat, but the inversion should keep
those at bay. The modified SHERBE parameterization is forecast
to be near 10 across our southern WI counties where the slope of
the front may increase the potential for near-surface or
surface-based storms. While writing this discussion, the 19Z
HRRR came in and does have up to 800 J/kg of SBCAPE across Pine
County at 23Z with those large arcing hodographs - the tornado
threat may be high there for a short period of time, but this is
also when CI is expected with CAMS guidance sparking that off
around 22Z over the St. Croix River Valley. Given that, storms
may fire and become strong to severe fairly quickly. With this
amount of kinematic energy, the storms won`t be very tall, but
they may be quite spunky that is if they fire. Suffice it to say
that this is a low probability of occurrence but high impact if
the line does unzip and feed off of the energy that is projected
to be available. This will be the main show of this low pressure
system and things should quiet down overnight.
An elongated inverted trough will bring some rain and snow to NW
WI on Monday with little to no accumulation expected. QPF will
be a tenth to two tenths across our far southeast from this.
High pressure will build in Tuesday through early Thursday
giving dry weather and low RH`s which will be concerning for
fire weather with the already dry fuels.
On Thursday, another low will move into Ontario and push a dying cold
front across the Northland. After this, things become much more
muddled with guidance beginning to diverge quite a bit from
model to model.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
Thunderstorms were moving through northwest Wisconsin early this
evening ahead of a strong cold front. The storms were moving
quickly to the northeast and may produce hail up to a half inch
in diameter and gusty winds to 40 mph through about 8 PM.
Although not likely, a storm may intensify and produce damaging
wind and hail to one inch in diameter. Low level wind shear was
occurring across much of the Northland and will continue into
tonight as winds veer both at the surface and aloft.
Ahead of the front, IFR to MVFR ceilings were rather widespread
and mostly VFR conditions will occur behind. Fog, especially
along the North Shore will also occur through the evening until
winds switch to southwest. Gusty winds will occur both ahead of
the front and behind. Winds will diminish later tonight into
Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
An area of low pressure will slide north across western
Minnesota causing periods of gales across western Lake
Superior. First from the northeast this afternoon and then from
the southwest this evening. Winds will decrease early Monday as
high pressure builds overhead. The next low pressure will arrive
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ121-148.
Gale Warning until 4 AM CST Monday for LSZ140>147-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Wolfe
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
544 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wind and fire weather conditions subsiding into sunset
- Showers and thunderstorms likely (60+% chance) southeast
Monday afternoon and evening with lesser chances farther north
and west. A few strong storms possible.
- Dry and mild Tuesday into at least Wednesday morning
- Rain and possible a few storms likely south Thu night with
lingering less chances to start the weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
Our pattern will remain active through the week with our
current strong SW flow aloft gradually weakening ahead of what
will be a diffuse upper level trough advancing into the Plains
to end the work week. The main weather story this afternoon
remains strong SW surface winds and the associated extreme fire
weather conditions. Severe fires have been noted in satellite
imagery. 19Z obs depicted many sites with sustained winds 30-40
mph and gusts 40-50 mph. The mixing that has brought these
winds to the surface and boosted temps into the 70s is beyond
what model soundings suggest with recent modified RAP soundings
suggesting mixing approaching 2km. 19Z surface analysis also
shows a cold front and wind shift entering western IA and winds
should diminish somewhat along and behind the passage of this
feature, which should be through the forecast area toward
midnight.
Our attention will then turn to increasing precip chances later
tomorrow. The baroclinic zone aloft associated with the front
is expected to stall over IA with weak waves through the fast
Pacific origin flow inducing weak cyclogenesis over the Plains.
This will increase theta-e advection aloft through the
baroclinic zone with noted frontogenesis as well. This will pull
the boundary and warm sector back into the forecast area, which
appears to be more aggressive than recent model runs. In fact,
recent RAP & HRRR runs suggest dewpoints in the 50s southeast by
afternoon. The aforementioned forcing and convergence along the
boundary is expected to produce scattered convection into the
evening. With 1000+ J/kg nearly uncapped MLCAPEs in the warm
sector, and effective shear ~40kts, strong to severe storms will
be possible, and would not be surprised to see the new Day 1
SPC severe probabilities increased farther north and west by its
initial release tonight. Damaging wind and large hail will be
possible with discrete supercells possible per recent RAP and
HRRR updraft helicities. The environment isn`t screaming, but
there appears to be a low tornado potential as well with strong
500m shear. A few AI/ML progs also suggest all modes of severe
weather potential southeast during the late afternoon and early
evening.
Any precip should end overnight with dry and continued mild
conditions Tuesday and at least the start of Wednesday. Current
model consensus suggests increasing precip chances again late
Wednesday into Thursday, but confidence in this evolution is not
great as models will struggle identifying which short waves to
emphasize in the weakening flow within the approaching upper
level trough. Confidence is fairly high that a nice west-east
baroclinic zone aloft will be in place for isentropic lift, with
other kinematic contributions as well, but confidence in its
latitudinal position, IA vs MO for instance, isn’t great. Some
lower precip chances will linger into the weekend, with cooler
cyclonic flow behind the departing low, but Sunday looks dry
with upper level ridging approaching.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
Strong southwest to west winds diminish quickly this evening as
weak surface ridging arrives. VFR ceilings and visibilities
expected overnight although ceilings will lower toward daybreak
on Monday. Stronger lift arrives by morning with ceilings
becoming MVFR during the morning across central into northern
Iowa. Some light rain showers are also expected across much of
central Iowa during the day. Winds are forecast to be variable
becoming northwest during the afternoon.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Small
AVIATION...Cogil
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
316 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Intermittent critical fire weather conditions remain possible
for portions of the area this afternoon.
- Monday`s chances for critical fire weather conditions continue
to lower as the worst winds and driest air may be offset of
each other.
- Cooler temperatures (closer to normal for this time of year)
Monday through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1248 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024
Current satellite combined with 500mb RAP analysis show an
upper trough continuing to work its way through the western half
of the CONUS with mid level clouds filtering across northern
portions of the CWA. Have seen at least brief critical fire
weather conditions across a large part of the region this
morning and early afternoon with negative dewpoints and
continued wind gusts in excess of 25 mph. As of 12 PM noon MST
(1 PM CST), temperatures across the area range in the lower 50s
northwest to middle 60s east with winds continuing to trend
down. Surface high pressure across the east with a redeveloping
low in the lee of the Rockies this afternoon will favor
strongest southwest winds (gusts ~30-35 mph) across our far west
(portions of Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne counties in
Colorado).
Surface low pressure will move through overnight, shifting
winds out of the north. Gusts to around 20-30 mph are possible
into the morning hours, and with some mid to upper level clouds
filtering in from the west-southwest, expecting above normal low
temperatures - in the middle 20s to middle 30s.
Conditions are forecast to remain dry Monday with again some
mid to upper level cloud cover moving through. Breezy north
winds continue in the morning hours, with gusts into the 20-30
mph range before decreasing in magnitude into the afternoon-
evening hours as surface high pressure builds in. As mentioned
in prior discussions, the fire weather concern has continued to
decrease as timing of windiest conditions (AM) and driest
conditions (PM) lack overlap. High temperatures are forecast in
the upper 40s west to low 60s east. Low pressure in the lee of
the Rockies Monday night will be replaced by surface high
pressure building southward into Tuesday. Overnight lows are
forecast in the low 20s to low 30s Monday night-Tuesday morning.
Broad upper troughing continues Tuesday, with zonal to
southwesterly flow aloft. Expect an increase in mid to upper
level cloud cover from the west-southwest. Northerly winds in
the morning will veer towards the south-southeast during the
afternoon-evening, remaining lighter than prior days. High
temperatures are forecast to range from the mid-upper 40s west
to middle 50s east. Overnight lows fall into the middle 20s to
low 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024
Overview: Broad troughing /cyclonic flow/ aloft over the
central CONUS (mid-week) will be supplanted by an amplifying
upper level ridge (next weekend).
Wed-Fri night: A transition to a cooler, wetter pattern is
expected at the beginning of this period, as an upper level low
in the northern Pacific.. presently centered ~1000 miles south
of Alaska, or ~46N 152W.. digs southeastward ashore central/
southern CA (Wed) and progresses eastward across the Desert
Southwest (Thu) and Southern Plains (Thu night-Fri). A mid-
latitude cyclone will gradually develop over the Southern Plains
/TX Panhandle/ on Wed-Thu.. as the upper low traverses the
Desert Southwest and Southern Rockies. Long range guidance
suggests that strengthening low-level warm advection on the
eastern periphery of the developing mid-latitude cyclone may aid
in the development of elevated convection over portions of
northwest KS and southwest NE Wed night into Thu, though.. this
will highly depend upon the precise evolution of the mid-
latitude cyclone. A clearing trend will eventually follow..
Friday-Friday night.. as the upper level wave progresses
eastward from the Southern Plains to the MS River Valley.
Sat-Sun: Expect benign weather and a modest warming trend as an
amplifying ridge over the Intermountain West progresses
eastward over the central CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024
VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail at both terminals
throughout the 00Z TAF period. Winds at around 5-10 knots
sustained, generally out of the south-southeast will back
towards the east then north (by ~05-06Z). Overnight into the
morning hours will have occasional gusts into the 20-25 knot
range. Low confidence in development of LLWS overnight (between
~08-14Z); as such, have omitted for now but will reassess for
future TAF issuances as needed.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024
Fire weather concerns continue to decrease both through the
remainder of today and for tomorrow.
Main area of concern for the remainder of the afternoon with
potential for briefly critical fire weather conditions is now
across the far west (portions of Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne
counties in Colorado) where winds are forecast to be strongest
(gusts up to ~30-35 mph). Winds around 10-15 mph sustained,
gusting to ~20-25 mph will shift out of the north overnight.
For Monday, still looking at lack of overlap in conditions to
reach critical criteria - with the windiest conditions (gusts
~20-30 mph) during the morning hours and the driest conditions
(RH ~14-20%) during the afternoon.
Precipitation chances return mid to late week.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...CC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
628 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry until Monday evening, then rain/storms move in after sunset.
- Highs in the low 70s Monday! A large temperature gradient for
highs on Tuesday due to a cold front moving through. Low to mid 50s
near Lake Michigan, low to mid 60s east of I-69.
- Rain/storm chances persist through Tuesday evening. Thunderstorms
may contain small hail, maybe an isolated chance for 1" diameter
hail in some of the strongest storms. Low confidence in
this occuring. Organized severe weather is not expected.
- Temperatures moderate with highs in the 50s the rest of the
week. Next chance for rain arrives Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
Temperatures warm into the mid to upper 60s this afternoon with
mostly clear skies. Visible GOES East satellite imagery shows
few to no clouds across much of the CWA. Winds gusts up to 25-30
mph are possible this afternoon, but by sunset, winds will
begin to diminish. The latest WPC surface analysis shows a warm
front lifting north through Illinois as of 15Z, associated with
a deepening area of low pressure in northern Minnesota. The
warm front will move through northern Indiana between 00Z-06Z
Monday, keeping lows mild in the upper 40s to mid 50s. As low
level moisture increases thanks to the warm front, dewpoints
rise into the 50s overnight and cloud cover increases.
WAA dominates on Monday as highs will be in the low to mid 70s!
Winds will gusts as high as 25-30 mph out of the southwest. The
aforementioned area of low pressure will move over Manitoba on
Monday, and the attendant cold front will sweep through the CWA
between 12-18Z Tuesday. Chances for rain and thunderstorms
exist ahead of and along the cold front. Given consensus from
the RAP, NAM, and GFS, I have delayed the onset of PoPs until
03Z Tuesday. Rain begins in the northwest CWA near Lake Michigan
between 03-06Z, but may need to be delayed until as late as
09-12Z depending on future model runs.
Contrary to yesterday, models are now showing good agreement on
better low level moisture, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s
ahead of the cold front. Given sufficient moisture, MUCAPE
should be between 500-750 J/kg. Using RAP soundings, we will
have 25-30 kts of shear Tuesday morning and decent mid level
lapse rates around 7C/km. Given these parameters, I would not be
surprised if some of the storms ahead of the front contain
small hail and sub-severe gusty winds. Maybe an isolated storm
or two remains semi-discrete enough ahead of the front to
produce 1" diameter hail, but my confidence is very low. I think
we will get some SPS worthy storms through Tuesday morning and
early afternoon. The current SPC Day 2 Outlook has a Marginal
Risk to our west through 12Z Tuesday. I wouldn`t be surprised if
that Marginal Risk gets expanded into the IWX CWA, although
organized severe weather is not expected.
The mild pattern continues next week as temperatures moderate in the
50s. Another cold front moves through on Friday, bringing chances
for rain. Then, a large area of low pressure sets up over the
ArkLaTex region at the end of the week. This will be a large system
that traverses the Mid Mississippi Valley Saturday then moves up to
the Northeast on Sunday. As a result, we have chances for rain, and
maybe some lake effect snow showers mixing in, through the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
VFR conditions continue to prevail this evening before
increased WAA and an approaching wave bring a period of MVFR
cigs associated with stratus that develops/advects in towards
12Z Mon. IFR cigs may even be possible at SBN, and there is the
potential for a period of less than 2000 ft cigs after 12Z at
FWA. Confidence has increased in these lower ceilings due to
good overall model agreement. The stratus is expected to be
progressive and may begin to move out early afternoon.
A few models still indicate the potential for a stray sprinkle
or light shower Monday afternoon, especially at KSBN. But not
overly impressed with the setup and even if it did occur the
isolated nature precludes an addition, especially this far out.
Somewhat gusty southerly winds also continue this evening, and
LLWS is possible at SBN after 06Z. Surface winds subside to
around 10kts Monday morning, but become gusty again by
afternoon.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Fisher/Cobb
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
707 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Not many changes needed on the forecast this evening, showers will
continue across north central Florida for the next few hours.
Tonight, patchy dense fog is likely for much of NE FL and SE GA,
along with the local coastal waters. A Dense Fog Advisory may be
necessary later tonight, especially near the coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 253 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Frontal boundary was diffuse across the area and is shallow up to
about 1-2 kft per HRRR and NAM cross sections. Boundary could be
drawn from far southeast GA through JAX metro area and offshore of
St Augustine. The boundary is forecast to drift southward tonight
but in the mean time, showers and storms are firing along the
boundary across mostly inland northeast FL with tops to at least
40 kft. Some hail has been reported thus far and some of the
storms have potential to be severe with around 1 inch hail the
most likely threat, but an isolated damaging wind gust is also possible.
The convection is expected to wind down mid evening, but
lingering isolated showers or a weak thunderstorm possible through
about 11 pm. With the cooler air expected tonight behind the
front and the moist low levels, mostly cloudy skies anticipated
thanks to areas to widespread stratus. Lows tonight are forecast
in the upper 50s to around 60. Winds are light enough and stratus
may "build down" to produce areas of dense fog and there may be a
need for a dense fog advisory for land zones and also portions of
the adjacent coastal waters.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wed night)
Issued at 253 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
Monday... Mostly dry conditions expected for the area as the weekend`s
front will have moved south of the area. Some isolated thunderstorms
may develop along our western locations along the I-75 corridor
and north central Florida late Monday afternoon. Potential for
marine fog through the day, by the overnight hours fog is expected
to spread into the interior areas. Daytime highs on Monday will
be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows from the upper
50s to lower 60s.
Tuesday...Precipitation chances increase today as a lifting warm
front during the early/late afternoon will bring the chance for
thunderstorm development along its boundary. A cold front will
begin to move in from the west during the overnight hours,
bringing the possibility for thunderstorms into Wednesday
morning. Daytime highs will be in the 70s across SE GA, and upper
70s to lower 80s across NE FL.
Wednesday...The cold front will continue to move through the area
throughout the day, clearing to the south by the evening. Most of
the showers and storms will have begun to wane by the afternoon
hours and dropping off by the evening.
Daytime highs during this 3 day period will be in the upper 70s
and lower 80s. Overnight lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s,
with cooler lows on Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
Dry conditions return on Thursday continuing through Friday
morning, as high pressure building in will push the front south of
the area. An active weather pattern will arrive to the area, as a
developing frontal system will bring a decent amount of
precipitation starting Friday afternoon through Saturday, with the
highest amounts expected on Saturday. This is in addition to
southeasterly winds beginning to pick up during the early hours on
Friday, shifting to become southwesterly by Saturday afternoon.
Warmer temperatures are expected to reside above normal for the
majority of the period, before a cool down in temperatures begins
at the start of the weekend. Daily Highs in the upper 70s for SE
GA, while NE FL will get to the lower 80s, with Friday expected to
be the warmest day. Come Saturday, temperatures will begin to cool
slightly to the mid 70s over SE GA and north central Florida and
coastal NE FL remaining in the lower 80s. Daily Lows will also
trend on the warmer side as overnight temperatures will remain in
the upper 50s to mid 60s through the end of the week, by Saturday
night lows will get to the lower/mid 50s as the cold front will
have pushed through our area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
There continues to be fair agreement amongst models that dense fog
will impact all of the TAF sites tonight along with low ceilings.
Conditions will begin to deteriorate for the sites other than GNV
in the next few hours, with GNV following around 07Z. Visibilities
will generally begin to improve and ceilings will start lifting
after daybreak, however MVFR ceilings will linger through the
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
Weak high pressure will build north of the area through tonight behind
a weak cool front across north central Florida. Areas of dense fog
are likely at times tonight and Monday morning. Confidence not high
enough to issue an advisory just yet but for now a marine weather
statement was transmitted as a caution for this potential tonight.
The front will lift northward as a warm front on Tuesday ahead of
an approaching low and frontal system, which will bring shower
and thunderstorm chances over waters Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday. The associated cold front will cross waters by
Wednesday night. A weak ridge of high pressure will build into the
region Thursday and will then move east of the area by Friday.
Rip Currents: With surf near 3 ft, largely due to easterly swell
at 9 seconds, a moderate risk for area beaches is expected
through Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 59 77 57 76 / 10 10 10 40
SSI 57 69 56 70 / 10 10 0 20
JAX 59 74 57 76 / 10 10 10 40
SGJ 59 72 59 75 / 10 10 10 30
GNV 60 80 59 81 / 20 20 10 50
OCF 60 80 61 82 / 30 30 10 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
533 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-There is a slight chance for showers this evening across parts of
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
-A cold front will move into the area Monday afternoon and continue
slowly southeast through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the front. Some of the storms could be strong to severe
Monday afternoon and evening.
-Showers and thunderstorms linger into Tuesday as the front
continues to move slowly southeast. The remainder of the week
will be cooler, with rain lingering on Tuesday, and returning
later in the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 229 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
Low pressure centered over western Minnesota is producing strong
and gusty winds across the Midwest this afternoon. A hybrid cold
front/dryline attached to the low is moving into northwest
Missouri at this time, and will continue to drift east into the
evening. Latest guidance shows this boundary moving into far
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. By that time the
cooler air will have caught up with the leading edge of the drier
air, so a few counties like Knox, Lewis, and perhaps Shelby,
Marion and Adams will see cooler temperatures tonight north of the
cold front than the rest of the area which will be stuck in the
warm sector. Short range guidance including the RAP and several
CAMs spit out some isolated to widely scattered showers in the
vicinity of the front this evening. The RAP even shows 200-500
J/Kg of MUCAPE up there, so I wouldn`t be surprised if there were
a few rumbles of thunder.
The front drifts northward on Monday as another low spins up over
Kansas. It will be another warm and windy day across the area,
though it doesn`t look quite as warm or windy as today with more
cloud cover developing in the afternoon. Dew point temperatures
will also be rising with the entire area moistening up into the mid
50s to low 60s. RAP/GFS/NAM seem to have settled down on maximum
CAPE values between 1000-1700 J/Kg across most of the CWFA late
tomorrow afternoon and evening. CAMs snow convective initiation
during the late afternoon or early evening along the front in north
central Missouri. There may also be isolated elevated convection
developing farther south across parts of southeast and east central
Missouri due to some weak to moderate low level moisture
convergence, but the main area of convection will be near the front.
Deep-layer shear is still the limiting factor for severe storms in
our area with most of the area showing between 20-30kts. There is a
small part of northeast Missouri into west central Illinois where
the shear increases to 40+kts late in the evening according to the
RAP, therefore I think the greatest threat will be in those areas.
Isolated 1 inch hail and 60 mph winds will be the initial threat
when storms are rooted in the boundary layer, but it`s likely the
storms will become elevated by mid-late evening which should end the
wind threat.
Carney
&&
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
Guidance shows the front about half way through the CWFA by 12Z
Tuesday...basically just north/west of I-44 in Missouri and just
north of I-70 in Illinois. The NAM and RAP keep a fairly stout 1000-
1500 J/Kg of MUCAPE across the area along and south of the front
Tuesday morning, and the NAM bumps it up to over 2000 J/Kg by mid
afternoon. While the GFS remains unstable south of the front, it`s
not nearly as strong with MUCAPE generally less than 1000 J/Kg. The
LREF only adds to the uncertainty showing a spread of 500+ J/Kg
between the top and bottom CAPE quartiles on Tuesday. I`m leaning
toward the weaker solution due to the likelihood of widespread cloud
cover and continuing showers, however the severe threat for Tuesday
is not zero given the possibility for greater instability.
The active/wet pattern continues on Thursday after a brief interlude
on Wednesday. The long wave pattern shifts east and amplifies
Thursday into the weekend. The trough is forecast to extend all the
way from Canada through the southern CONUS into Mexico by Friday.
Guidance continues to spit out rain ahead of the trough in the warm
advection wing of the system beginning Thursday and continuing
Friday. There are timing differences between the deterministic GFS
an ECMWF, but both have the cold front associated with this system
moving through Friday or Friday night. The EC is the slower of the
two as it shows a more compact and wound up southern end to the
trough which produces a closed and stacked surface-850mb low over
eastern Texas as early as Friday afternoon. The GFS also develops a
closed low, but it doesn`t happen until the surface trough is over
the Ohio Valley on Saturday morning. Not sure there will be much
difference in sensible weather here in Missouri and Illinois between
either solution, it looks wet with a little instability available to
produce a few thunderstorms, but not enough for severe weather. The
biggest difference between the faster and slower solutions will
likely be temperatures. It still looks like we`ll be at or above
normal at least through Friday, however the difference between the
LREF top and bottom quartiles is as much as 8-12 degrees for
Thursday through Saturday, so there is a possibility that
temperatures will be cooler than the current forecast.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
Dry and VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period at all terminals with upper-level clouds and low-VFR diurnal
cumulus at times. In terms of precip, there is a 20 percent chance of
isolated showers near KUIN overnight, but limited coverage and
potential impact preclude their inclusion. As a cold front approaches
the region Monday evening, showers and thunderstorms will eventually
develop; however, this development will most likely not occur
until around or beyond the end of the TAF period. Otherwise,
southerly winds with gusts of 22 to 30 kt will diminish this
evening, resuming Monday morning.
Pfahler
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 253 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024
Another round of very warm weather is expected this weekend into
early next week. Daily record high temperatures are possible. The
table below lists the record highs at the climate locations in our
service area.
SUN MARCH 3 MON MARCH 4
St Louis 85 in 1974 79 in 1974
Columbia 80 in 1983 80 in 1938
Quincy 77 in 1946 73 in 1961
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
640 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
Winds are diminishing across the area this evening as mixing
subsides, with the downward trend in wind speed expected to
continue. Thus, the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory have
expired as scheduled. A few gusts may linger the next hour or two,
especially across Southeast New Mexico and in the mountains, but
most gusts will cease after sunset. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 254 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
Another warm, breezy day is underway across the region today,
befitting of early March - `tis the season. Per latest water vapor
imagery and RAP analysis, a broad trough covers much of the
western CONUS, with its attendant jet extending across southern
Colorado and northern New Mexico into the Central Plains. Closer
to our neck of the woods, a subtropical jet embedded in zonal flow
extends across northern Mexico and southern Texas. Between these
two features and associated with a subtle shortwave to the north,
a 700 hPa jet max is producing strong winds in the Guadalupe
Mountains, where gusts to 60 to 70 mph have been common today,
peaking at 81 mph last night at Pine Springs. These winds have
bled over into the adjacent plains of Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas, extending into the western and central Permian Basin,
with gusts to 30 to 40 mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for
the aforementioned areas through late afternoon, and a High Wind
Warning remains in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains. Given the
warm, dry, and breezy conditions, critical fire weather conditions
have also developed today for portions of the region, and more
information on this can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion
below.
This evening, winds diminish quickly after sunset, with light
southwesterly winds expected overnight. Temperatures will remain
on the mild side, with lows in the middle 40s to lower 50s as
moisture return begins in earnest to the southeast of the area.
This could yield some low clouds along the Lower Pecos Valley
tonight, though the westward extent of moisture will be stymied by
the continued light southwesterly surface flow. Given little
change to the overall pattern, temperatures Monday will be
remarkably similar to today, in the middle 70s to lower 80s for
most, and 60s in the mountains. The main difference tomorrow is
while breezy conditions are expected, winds won`t be quite as
strong as today, with gusts largely remaining under 30 mph across
lower elevations, and under 50 mph in the mountains. Lows tomorrow
night into early Tuesday morning will be slightly cooler, but
still above normal for early March, in the middle to upper 40s for
most. As for rain, chances are nil through the short term.
JP
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
Zonal flow persists through mid-week, giving way to a fairly
robust trough set to swing through southern AZ/NM and into the
Texas Panhandle Thursday into Friday. While this pattern spells
quiet days on Tuesday and Wednesday, ascent ahead of the incoming
trough may help spawn some showers and thunderstorms across the
eastern Permian Basin Wednesday night into Thursday. Low-mid level
moisture looks to be largely limited to the far eastern zones and
the westward extent of any rain chances remains the main point of
uncertainty here. It is worth noting that the primary ensemble
clusters give a 60 percent chance of measurable rainfall in
Midland/Odessa so we`ll keep an eye on this. The aforementioned
trough brings a Pacific front through during the day on Thursday,
washing all of the moisture to central Texas and ushering in
breezy winds. Elevated winds shift to south of the Pecos for
Friday as the jet associated with the trough moves overhead.
Temperatures stay fairly steady during the week, topping out in
the low to mid 70s for most and 80s to the south though Friday
will be a bit cooler behind the Pac front.
On the heels of the late-week trough, a reinforcing cold front is
set to drop in from the north on Friday. This will bring another
taste of Winter with low temperatures Saturday in the 20s and 30s
and afternoon highs in the 50s and 60s. Mid level moisture
traveling with the trough from the Pacific may support some rain
showers behind the front as it pushes in Friday into Saturday, but
we`ll see how this trends over the next few days.
-Munyan
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
VFR conditions continue the next 24 hours. Wind gusts will
diminish after sunset, with sustained speeds remaining around 12kt
or less overnight. Southwest winds become elevated and gusty once
again between 15Z-18Z, with gusts to around 25kt expected
areawide.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024
Very dry and windy conditions have developed as expected this
afternoon, with the critical fire weather conditions primarily
focused to southeast New Mexico and the north-central Permian Basin
where the Red Flag warning remains in effect until this evening. A
stagnant shield of cirrus cloud cover has been lingering across the
south-central Permian Basin and upper Trans Pecos which has kept
winds in check some.
The gusty winds relax this evening as the mid level jet departs and
wind speeds remain relatively low through mid week. While critical
humidity lingers through the week, the light winds, good to fair
overnight recovery, and ERCs near the 50th percentile keep fire
concerns on the low side. Breezy to windy conditions return Thursday
and Friday as the next system moves in.
-Munyan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 48 81 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 50 76 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 50 83 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 50 80 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 46 65 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 47 76 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 38 71 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 48 79 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 50 79 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 47 80 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for
Andrews-Borden-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Mitchell-Reeves County
Plains-Scurry-Winkler.
NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
Mountains.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...84
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
654 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gusty southeast to south winds this evening, locally up to
around 40 mph in the high terrain across the north down to
Lake Superior.
- Quick moving line of showers sweeps across the area tonight.
A few rumbles of thunder possible, at least across western
Upper MI.
- Low chance (10-20%) for a narrow swath of heavy wet
snow/sleet mix at higher elevations Monday night.
- Locally heavy rain and a few embedded thunderstorms
increasingly likely east Monday night. Ponding in poor
drainage areas is possible, especially where snow and frozen
soils linger.
- Above normal temperatures and sunny skies mid-week brings
potential for borderline elevated fire weather wx conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 327 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a shortwave over the
Dakotas becoming increasingly negative tilt as it swings out of
western troffing. Associated 988mb sfc low is located near Fargo, ND
with associated cold front bowing out across MN and down thru the
Plains. Closer to home, tightening pres gradient is resulting in
increasing winds across Upper MI, but widespread stratus that
developed last night/early this morning has worked to hold stability
in the low-levels as has waa. Still, gusts of 20-30mph are becoming
common with peak gusts up to around 35mph in high terrain across the
n into the downslope areas along Lake Superior. Highest winds have
likely been in Keweenaw County from the ridge line down to the
lakeshore from Eagle River to Copper Harbor since that area is
favored for higher winds with a se to sse wind direction. Some -dz
was noted for a few hrs in the upslope areas of central Upper MI.
Stratus has held temps down considerably from what was expected.
Current readings mostly range thru the 40s F.
Vis satellite imagery shows clearing spreading n quickly, but that
will be held up where se winds upslope. However, do expect the
stratus to break up, maybe clear out, over the next few hrs in the
downslope areas near Lake Superior and also in the lower terrain
toward Lake MI. Stratus will break up last in the upslope high
terrain. Not sure if clearing will occur fast enough to get
sufficient insolation to build mixed layer and tap strong winds not
far off of the sfc. Will be something watch, but potential will be
there for gusts to 40+mph where clouds clear out before the sun
angle gets too low.
As cold front surges into the area tonight, strong forcing, ribbon
of moisture and some instability should support a sct-bkn band of
shra developing and quickly moving across the area. Shra won`t last
much more than an hr at any location. Given some cape (maybe several
hundred j/kg) for parcels lifted from top of inversion, some thunder
is possible and will be mentioned over the western fcst area where
there is a little more instability. Forcing diminishes with eastward
extent as front moves farther from parent shortwave, so dropped
thunder east of that area. As skies clear after fropa and winds
become light late, temps will settle back thru the 30s, around 30F
interior w, by sunrise.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 434 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
The primary forecast concern is the potential for a narrow swath of
heavy precipitation Monday night. The HRRR (especially 18z), RAP,
and NAM 3km have been the most aggressive with wintry wx potential
Monday night. The 12z global model grand ensemble has 10-20% chances
of at least 3 inches of snow over portions of Iron, Dickinson,
Baraga, Marquette, and Alger Counties. All model guidance is in good
agreement that the weak front moving through tonight stalls across
the eastern UP Monday morning before an approaching disturbance acts
on the frontal boundary late on Monday. This disturbance is not easy
to identify, but my best guess is it`s the vort max approaching
International Falls Monday afternoon with continued upper level
support from the broader vort max across MN Monday evening.
Regardless, a surge of mid-level warm air advection is expected to
result in a narrow zone of intense frontogenesis Monday evening and
overnight. The tightening thermal gradient brings p-types issues,
but rain is favored at lower elevations, especially across the
eastern UP. At higher elevations 18z HRRR model soundings show a
nearly 7 kft deep isothermal layer right at 0C with strong southerly
flow at the top of this layer. Think precip rates will dictate p-
types at higher elevations with lighter rates favoring sleet and
heavier rates favoring snow. Along those lines, the 18z HRRR dropped
almost 1" of QPF in about 7 hours suggesting potential for snow
rates of 1-2 in/hr that would readily accumulate on all surfaces
even after the recent warm weather. If/where a band of heavy
snowfall materializes it may be able to overcome elevation
differences, but amounts should still be reduced at lower
elevations. Overall, I spent quite a bit of time trying to get the
forecast to reflect some wintry wx potential, but substantial
changes to the Monday night forecast remain possible. Farther east,
locally heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms and ponding in
poor drainage areas are the primary hazards. There are a few patches
of lingering snow cover for the NW wind snow belts that adds to the
potential for low-end hydro concerns.
Dry weather is looking likely Tuesday through Thursday as a 1032+ mb
surface ridge tracks east across Ontario. This very dry air mass
raises some borderline elevated fire wx concerns for Tuesday-
Thursday with the primary limiting factor being light winds.
Soundings reveal extremely dry mid-levels and mostly sunny skies on
Tue/Wed that should support deep mixing into this dry layer. For
this forecast package, min RH values dip into the upper 20s each
day, but wouldn`t be surprised if those values end up in the lower
20s or teens. At least upper level clouds increase on Thursday
suggesting more humid conditions. By Friday morning, ensemble means
advertise a northern stream trough along the Ontario/Manitoba border
and a southern stream trough over the 4-corners region. All three
major ensembles advertise a surface low spinning up over the
Southern Plains or MS Valley on Friday. Ensemble means track the
surface low northeast toward the Lower Great Lakes by Saturday and
the more northern solutions bring accumulating snow to Upper
Michigan Saturday into Saturday night. The 00z grand ensemble
advertises a 5-15% chance for at least 3 inches of snow during that
time frame. Otherwise, temperatures remain about 5F above average
with highs around 40F and lows around 20F.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
Stratus from earlier in the day and overnight has mostly lifted
late this afternoon/early evening. The focus this evening shifts
to a line of showers and thunderstorms now moving through north
central/northwest WI ahead of a cold front which will sweep
across the area later this evening. Expect a 1-2hr window of
showers at all the TAF sites with timing of 00-02z at IWD,
02Z-04Z at CMX and 03Z-05Z at SAW. Cigs could briefly lower back
down to MVFR with the passage of the showers. Elevated
instability indicates the best chance of a thunderstorm at CMX
(maybe as high as 40-50%) with slight chances at best at CMX and
SAW as instability wanes later this evening. After fropa, VFR
will prevail at all terminals overnight thru Mon morning. With
low-level jet shifting across the area ahead of the cold front
and with near sfc layer relatively stable, expect LLWS at all
terminals into the evening hours. Sfc winds will also be gusty
at times to 20-30+kt until shortly after fropa. Winds will
diminish quickly overnight. Rain or a rain/snow mix redeveloping
again late Monday afternoon (21Z-00Z) in the wake of the
exiting frontal boundary will likely lower conditions back down
to MVFR. &&
.MARINE...
Issued at 434 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
Easterly gales to 40 kts are ongoing across most of Lake Superior in
response to a deepening 990 mb low pressure tracking north across MN
this afternoon. Gales veer southeasterly this evening and overnight
as the surface low tracks north toward Lake Winnipeg. A brief ~4
hour period of southwesterly gales to 40 knots are possible across
the western lake behind the systems cold front. Winds subside to 25
knots or less by Monday morning and light winds continue through
Tuesday while veering southwesterly to northwesterly. East-
northeast winds increase up to 25 kts on Wednesday with winds
diminishing below 20 kts again Wednesday night through the end
of the week.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LSZ246>251.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Monday for LSZ162.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for
LSZ240>245.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Monday for LSZ263>267.
Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LMZ221.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...EK
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...EK