Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/02/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
941 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will thicken and lower tonight as low pressure approaches
from the Mid Atlantic States. A light wintry mix is possible
west of the Hudson River Valley before changing to rain tomorrow
morning into the afternoon for all of eastern New York and
western New England. The rain showers diminish Saturday night
with patchy fog, as above normal temperatures and fair weather
return for the close of the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...High level clouds continue to increase this evening.
Radar shows initial batch of precip gradually approaching from
the south/west. The nearest precip reaching the ground is
across south-central PA. It will take several more hours to
arrive in the Catskills, although based on the 00z HRRR/NAMNest
sped up the the timing slightly compared to the previous
forecast. With fairly dry low/mid levels initially, wetbulb
effect will lead to cooling of the column. Still expecting some
light snow/sleet/freezing rain at the onset in higher terrain
areas towards early Saturday morning. Will continue to monitor
trends. Will likely be able to handle spotty mixed precip with
Special Weather Statements.
.PREV DISCUSSION[0638]...No significant changes with this
update. Made some minor adjustments based on current obs.
Satellite imagery shows high level cirrus clouds increasing from
the south/west this evening. Temperatures are quickly cooling
into the 30s early this evening.
Low and mid level warm advection will continue tonight, as a
strong surface anticyclone drifts further south and east of the
region over the North Atlantic. Mid and high clouds will
increase from the south and west associated with an inverted sfc
trough tied to low pressure forming over the Mid Atlantic
States overnight. Lows will fall into the mid 20s and lower 30s,
and likely steady or rise slowly in the early morning hours.
The south to southeast winds will increase to 5 to 15 mph.
Some light snow/sleet or a spotty freezing rain may break out
over the eastern Catskills, western-central Mohawk Valley and
the southern Adirondacks mainly west of the Hudson River Valley
towards 09Z/SAT. The low-levels are very dry and it will take a
little time to saturate. The latest 18Z HRRR skips over most of
the forest area with a little sleet/snow/possibly freezing rain
over the w-central Mohawk Valley and southern Dacks. The 3-km
NAM is a little faster. Overall, a quick transition to rain is
expected with a warm boundary layer. A Special Weather Statement
may be needed if any freezing rain occurs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The inverted sfc trough ahead of the coastal wave moving towards
the Delmarva Region by 18Z/SAT will bring mainly light pcpn
ahead of a short-wave trough approaching from the eastern Great
Lakes Region. Thermal profiles are isothermal, but it is
possible some elevated light freezing rain may occur over the
southern Dacks, eastern Catskills, Helderbergs and possibly the
northern reaches of the Mohawk Valley near the Great Sacandaga
Lake. We also have to watch for spotty light freezing rain near
the KGFL corridor. We were not confident for widespread
impactful light freezing rain accreting based on the HREFS/WPC
guidance and the NBM. We do have a coating to a few hundredths
mainly for the elevated terrain west of the Hudson River Valley
and west of Lake George. The good news is any light wintry mix
should transition to plain rain by the late morning/noon time as
the isentropic lift increases ahead of the wave. We will
continue mention in the HWO and will emphasize a special weather
statement or perhaps a concentrated WSW may be needed later.
The afternoon should feature periods of rain with temps only
rising into the mid 30s to mid 40s/spotty upper 40s over the mid
Hudson River Valley. It will be a dank and gray day.
The coastal wave pulls away with diminishing showers from
northwest to southeast Saturday night. The QPF for the event
will range from a couple tenths to a half inch maybe over the
east/southeast Catskills. Some patchy fog may develop across the
region.
Low pressure moves away from the New England Coast on Sunday
with high pressure building in from the north and west with an
increase of sunshine. Temps rise close to 15 to 20 degrees above
normal with low and mid level heights increasing. Highs will be
in the 50s to lower 60s with some upper 40s over the mountains.
Tranquil weather conditions are expected Sunday night with
ridging aloft and light winds. Lows will be in the in the 30s to
lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended forecast begins with above normal temperatures and mild
weather with and mid and upper level ridging along the East Coast of
the CONUS. 500 hPa heights on the latest NAEFS are projected to be +2
to +3 STDEVs above normal for the Northeast. 850 hPa temps will
also be 1 to 2+ STDEVs above normal. Max temps will run 15-20
degrees above normal Mon and Tue. Some clouds may increase in the
afternoon Tue/Tue night for an isolated/scattered shower in the deep
south to southwest flow ahead an approaching mid and upper level
trough. Highs will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s in the valleys
and upper 40s to mid 50s over the mtns. Lows will be in the mid 30s
to mid 40s.
The forecast become gray, murky and unsettled heading into the mid
week. Cold front approaching from the west interacts with low
pressure developing near the Mid-Atlantic Coast Wed. An influx
of Gulf moisture with PWATS +1 to +3 STDEVS above normal utilized by
the frontal boundary and the approaching wave will bring periods of
rain late Wed afternoon into Thu. PoPs were raised to high
chance and likely values for the duration of the period. There
continues to be some timing difference with the medium range
guidance and the ensembles with the heaviest QPF. Some colder air
could bleed in from the north and west for some wet snow over the
higher terrain such as the southern Dacks Wed night into Thu. Temps
will still run above normal both days with mid 40s to 50s for highs.
Thu night scattered showers may continue, as the coastal wave
slowly pulls away. It is still uncertain if high pressure briefly
builds in from the Great Lakes Region or the system closes off near
the New England Coast for continued dank conditions with scattered
showers. We stuck with NBM for the day and kept a chance of showers
in the forecast. Temps will still run above normal by 5-10 degrees.
The Day 8 to 14 Outlook from CPC for the 2nd week of March is for
above normal temps and above normal pcpn.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through at
least the first 6-9 hours with increasing high level clouds this
evening, then mid level clouds overnight.
Chances for precip, mainly rain, will increase from southwest
to northeast across the area early Saturday morning. Coverage
looks scattered at first, so will mention PROB30 for showers
and associated MVFR conditions from early to mid morning until
the widespread rain moves in. Precip could begin a a brief
period of rain/snow mix at KPSF, but should change to rain
within a few hours of onset. Will then mention prevailing IFR
conditions in steady rainfall through the rest of the day.
Winds will be south-southeast around 3-8 kt, becoming variable
less than 5 kt by early Saturday morning.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...FG.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...JPV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1002 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonable warmth continues for the weekend with near record
or record highs possible.
- Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday
(30-50% highest east of the MS River).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024
Overview:
Welcome to meteorological Spring (even though it has felt like
spring for a while now)! Satellite imagery and upper level RAP progs
show a system moving just to the south across northern Missouri into
Illinois. Clouds associated with the system have remained mainly
south allowing for clear skies and temperatures this early afternoon
to increase into 50s for most.
Warm weekend with near record/record temps likely:
Above normal temperatures will remain for the weekend as persistent
southerly flow advects in warm air across the region. NAEFS and
ECMWF show mean 850 mb temperatures in the 90-99.5th percentiles of
climatology Saturday and Sunday, with model guidance suggesting 850
mb temps around +11-14 C late Saturday into early Sunday. At the
surface this is reflected with current forecast highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and mid 60s to 70s on Sunday, with
overnight lows tomorrow night in the 40s. Near record to record
temperatures will again be challenged. See the climate section below
for more details, but for quick reference normal high temperatures
for the early start of March would be mid to upper 30s and lows in
the teens to around 20 degrees F.
These unseasonably warm temperatures, strong winds (gusting 30+ kts
Sunday), and dry conditions will once again bring fire weather
concerns to the area, especially on Sunday. Will continue to closely
monitor conditions and expect continued updates over the next couple
of days.
Precipitation chances late Sun-Mon:
An upper level shortwave trough is expected to lift northeast
through the Northern Plains Sunday into Monday. Model guidance
depicts a surface low developing and also lifting northward from the
Northern Plains into Canada, swinging an associated surface cold
front through the region. This looks to bring the next chances for
rain (perhaps a few thunderstorms) to the area late Sunday into
Monday. Although some differences in details remain between model
guidance, the ECMWF ens and GEFS solutions both generally depict
high confidence in measurable precipitation (probs 50-80% highest
east of the MS River).
Through the rest of the week:
Temperature spread begins to increase beyond the weekend, but still
looks to continue above normal with current highs forecast in the
40s and 50s. Ensemble solutions point to another period of
precipitation later in the week. Still quite a ways out with
variability in the ensembles, so will maintain the broader
precipitation chances from the blended model guidance for now.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 957 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Gusty winds
ramp back up towards the end of the forecast period as a low
pressure system approaches from the southwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be
possible on Sunday. This is due a combination of record warm
temperatures, dry relative humidities, and strong southerly
winds. High temperatures will range from the mid-60s to mid-70s
north of Interstate 90 and in the lower to mid-70s elsewhere.
Lowered afternoon dew points down slightly using the NBM 10th
percentile. This resulted in afternoon humidities west of the
Mississippi River falling into the 20 to 35 percent west of
Mississippi River and from the mid-30s to mid-40s in western
Wisconsin. A strengthening southerly winds ahead of an
approaching cold front will range from 20 to 35 mph and wind
gusts from 30 to 45 mph.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024
With NAEFS 850 mb temperatures anomalies of 2 to 2.5 standard
deviations (highest anomalies on Sunday) throughout the weekend, we
are looking at near to record high temperatures on Saturday and
record high temperatures on Sunday. Unlike earlier in the week
where temperatures cooled rapidly overnight, it might be warm enough
on Sunday morning that some warm low records could be tied or
broken. Much of these warm lows will be highly dependent upon the
midnight temperature.
Rochester MN Forecast Record/year
Sat Mar 2 62 58/1964
Sun Mar 3 70 56/1946
La Crosse WI Forecast Record/year
Sat Mar 2 64 65/1923
Sun Mar 3 74 66/1894
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...EMS
AVIATION...KAA
FIRE WEATHER...Boyne
CLIMATE...Boyne
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
929 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push eastward this evening as a low pressure
system moves north along the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Precipitation
will push in after midnight and a brief wintry mix will be
possible in the higher elevations of NE PA and the Catskills of
NY into tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, there will be periods of
rain starting early tomorrow morning, and persisting through the
day. Quiet and very warm weather returns for Sunday and Monday,
with highs back in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM Update...
Temperatures have continued to be slow to fall relative to
forecast which is good for reducing the chances and area of
freezing rain and sleet tomorrow morning. There are still some
areas that fell below freezing in the Poconos and Catskills
though with strong southerly winds there may be enough mixing
late tonight as the precip moves in to warm temperatures above
freezing in those locations. Overnight lows were raised slightly
using the HRRR as the latest runs have come in a little warmer
and matching current temps the best.
7 PM Update...
Overall little change in the forecast this evening. Watching how
quickly temperatures fall before the low and mid level clouds
move in and bring an end to radiational cooling. As of now,
temperatures have dropped slower than models had it for the
first few hours this evening so that may help with leading to
less areas falling below freezing prior to rain moving in early
tomorrow morning.
220 PM Update...
High pressure that has brought us the warm and sunny conditions
today will push eastward tonight as low pressure tracks
northward along the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Any precipitation from
this system will hold off until the early morning hours on
Saturday. There will be some colder air locked in at the surface
and model guidance is showing temperatures in the in the lower
30s as this precip overspreads the area. Forecast model sounding
are showing temperatures aloft right near 0C at 850mb and mostly
isothermal profiles up the 0C line with finally a warm nose
pushing in aloft around 9Z tomorrow morning. Precipitation at
the onset may briefly start as snow and then change over to a
brief wintry mix before turn to all rain later Saturday morning.
The highest probabilities to see a light glaze of ice will be
across the higher elevations (>1600 feet) in the Poconos,
Catskills and perhaps eastern portions of the Susquehanna Region
in Central NY. Temperatures should rise above freezing by mid-
morning for all locations, but again, there could be a light
glaze of ice under a tenth of an inch. At this time, with ground
surfaces being unfrozen and the warm temperatures today, there
is likely going to be limited impact to road surfaces. However,
will continue to highlight in the HWO for now, as elevated
surfaces including bridges and overpasses may become slick
during the morning hours until a little after sunrise.
For most of our area, late tonight and Saturday will feature a
period of rain as low pressure moves up across Virginia,
Delaware and along the NJ coast. Tomorrow will be a damp day,
but still quite warm for early March, with highs climbing into
the 40s. By afternoon, the steadier rain starts to move east,
but lingering showers and drizzle are expected most of the day
and fog will likely develop tomorrow night and possibly be quite
dense in some locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
225 PM Update...
Very quiet conditions are expected during the short term period.
Although Sunday morning will will start off foggy and damp and
also quite cloudy, as low level moisture is trapped under a
building subsidence inversion. Skies should scatter out during
the afternoon as the inversion mixes out and drier air works
its way in. High pressure and SW flow will send temperatures
soaring once again, with highs reaching the upper 50s to low
60s across the region. Overnight lows will be warmer than the
night before, falling into the low 40s.
High pressure will remain in control on Monday, with even warmer
temperatures, with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s thanks
to continued WAA. This puts us in range of record high
temperatures at our climate sites, with 67 currently forecasted
at SYR (record is 63) and BGM and and AVP a few degrees within
their records. The heat will remain overnight as lows, forecast
to be in the mid to upper 40s, will also be close to their
record warmest at all 3 climate sites.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM Update...
High pressure will likely remain in control through at least
Tuesday, however an active pattern will make a return
thereafter. Still a lot of disagreement among the models, which
is to be expected for this time period. Due to the low
confidence, did not deviate from the NBM forecast at this time.
Timing and location of frontal passages over our area as well as
location and development of a surface low somewhere along the
east coast is all very uncertain at this time. At least the
warm temperatures should hang tough through at least the middle
of next week and possibly until the end of week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue at all terminals but clouds are
starting to move in. Cigs likely dont fall to MVFR until the
rain moves in around 5Z at ELM and AVP to 10Z SYR and RME as the
rain moves NE. Light rain continues for much of the day
tomorrow with largely MVFR cigs and vis through 18Z. As the rain
moves out after 18Z, low level moisture moves in with near IFR
cigs developing especially at higher elevated terminals like BGM
and ITH.
Low level wind shear is likely tonight as a low level jet
develops ahead of the approaching low.
Outlook...
Saturday night...Restrictions likely in rain. IFR or lower
possible at ELM, ITH, BGM and AVP.
Sunday...Lingering MVFR CIGs possible in the morning, then
gradually becoming VFR most locations in the afternoon.
Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...AJG/MPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
520 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low clouds and fog are possible Saturday morning, especially
over the southeast half of the area.
- The heightened fire weather threat continues through the
weekend into early next week. See the fire weather section for
more detail
- Very low chance for light rain/snow Sunday night. Better
chances for rain/snow (and maybe some thunderstorms) arrive
Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024
Skies have cleared across the entire area. Temperatures are
lagging a bit behind in southeastern portions of the area where
clouds held on a bit longer, but it is still a quite nice day,
with temperatures ranging from near 70 degrees out west to the
50s in the east.
The HRRR and RAP show this cloud cover returning Saturday
morning. Confidence in this occurring is not overly high, and
there is limited support from the NBM and HREF, but it seems
entirely plausible given how this morning played out. Winds may
also decrease enough by sunrise to allow some of this stratus
build down into fog. Patchy fog has been added to the
southeastern half of the forecast area. Skies should eventually
clear, but lingering cloud cover does provide some uncertainty
on temperatures for tomorrow, especially in our east. Forecast
temperatures have trended down a few degrees in these areas.
Southwestern portions of the area could easily reach the upper
70s, but some spots in the east could again struggle to reach
60.
The cold front for Sunday has trended a bit faster over the
past couple days, and the front should be through most of the
area by noon. The push of cold air has also trended weaker,
though, which means that temperatures should still reach the
upper 50s to low 70s. There is still a chance for light
rain/snow Sunday night (mainly in our north), but this should
have little to no impact.
Gusty north winds continue in the post-frontal airmass on
Monday, but it won`t be cold by any means. In fact, the current
forecast is for highs in the mid 50s to near 60...which is 5-15
degrees above normal.
Temperatures should be similar on Tuesday/Wednesday, but
southerly winds will return ahead of our next system. There
continues to be decent ensemble support for beneficial moisture,
especially Thursday/Friday. The latest EPS is the most
optimistic of the global ensembles and shows a 30-60% chance of
seeing 1.00" of precipitation through next Saturday morning.
Details remain uncertain, but this includes both a chance for
thunderstorms and a chance for accumulating snow across portions
of the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 518 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024
Dry weather is forecast for this TAF period, with overall VFR
conditions expected. One wrench in that may come right around
sunrise, when some models show low level stratus/fog returning
to the area. Not all models agree this occurs, so was hesitant
to lower things anymore from previous MVFR mention. Winds
throughout the period remain generally southerly, speeds around
15 MPH decreasing to closer to 10 MPH late tonight...then
ramping back up mid-late morning with gusts near 20-30 MPH
possible through the afternoon hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024
The fire weather threat for Saturday remains a bit uncertain.
South winds may gust 20-30 MPH through the afternoon, but the
potential for lingering cloud cover leads to lower confidence on
temperature and humidity. If clouds clear soon enough, the
western 1/2 of the area could approach Red Flag Criteria, but
if clouds hang around (like the HRRR indicates), only our far
southwestern areas may be near-critical.
Drier air spreads across the are Saturday night. Some areas may
see humidity as low as 20% in the early morning hours of
Sunday. The post-frontal airmass remains dry into the afternoon
on Sunday, and nearly everyone will see humidity in the 10-20%
range. That said, there is now some uncertainty on how strong
winds will be, with some near term guidance showing winds
diminishing pretty quickly behind the front Sunday afternoon.
Although slightly cooler on Monday, we will remain dry, and
gusty north winds will probably lead to near-critical conditions
across much of the area. Tuesday is similar to Monday, but
winds will be turning to back to the south ahead of our next
system.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
643 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy southerly winds into this evening, gusts up to 25-35 mph.
- Well above normal temperatures over the weekend. Record high
maximum temperatures and record high minimum temperatures
could be tied or broken.
- Breezy Sunday, gusts up to 35mph.
- Above normal temperatures continue through next week,
although not as warm as this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 640 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024
Rap analysis and water vapor imagery show ridging centered over the
Northern Plains with one trough over Quebec and another over the
Pacific off the coast of British Columbia and Washington. A
shortwave trough is noted over Nebraska moving northeast into
Missouri and a low pressure system is observed over Alberta. Even
though the sfc ridge that passed over the U.P. on Thursday is moving
east away from our CWA, the U.P. will remain dry as the mid level
ridge axis shifts east toward the Great Lakes and the shortwave
stays to our south. With mostly clear skies so far tonight across
the west, radiative cooling has helped temps get into the teens to
low 20s save for near Ironwood where temps have held in the mid to
upper 20s. While the central and interior west low lying spots may
cool down an additional degree or two more tonight, temps are
expected to gradually begin warming through Friday as a warm front
lifts north over the U.P. Lingering cloud cover will lift north from
the U.P. through early this morning yielding mostly clear skies
and dry weather for Friday.
As the mid level ridge builds overhead today, strong WAA will
enhance vertical mixing from a low level jet allowing for some
breezy south winds with gusts to around 25-35mph. This mixing with
clear skies will also bring back unseasonable temperatures for the
first day of meteorological spring. Highs over the east will peak in
the mid 40s with upper 40s to mid 50s for the west.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 458 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024
Well over a week ago, medium range guidance was pointing toward mean
troffing/negative height anomalies becoming established over western
N America early this month, and that will be the case. This will
force mean ridging/positive height anomalies downstream across
eastern N America with max height anomalies generally centered in se
Canada/New England thru next week. For Upper MI, this pattern favors
above normal temps, carrying on the theme of the warm meteorological
winter. Here at the NWS office in Negaunee Township, this was the
warmest meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) on record, beating out the
previous warmest, 1997-1998 (also a strong El Nino winter) by an
impressive over 1.5F degrees. Records at this site only date back to
the fall of 1961. At the city of Marquette where records date back
to 1857, this Dec-Feb was the 2nd warmest on record, falling 1.9F
degrees short of the incredibly warm winter of 1877-1878. As for
pcpn, this pattern will lead to shortwaves ejecting from the western
trof out across the Plains to eastern N America. Typically, this
type of pattern would be supportive of more frequent opportunities of
pcpn. A strong wave will move out of the Northern Rockies Sat night,
becoming negative tilt as it swings thru the Northern Plains on Sun
and into Canada Sun night. Associated cold front will sweep across
the area Sun night, providing the first chc of shra. Following wave
should then spread rain across the area during Mon. Next chc of pcpn
will occur late week. Looking farther down the road, ECMWF weeklies
and the recent CFSv2 ensemble mean suggest positive height anomalies
will become dominant in the high latitudes during the last half of
Mar, including in western Canada. This will force a transition to
eastern N America troffing which in turn suggests temps should fall
more frequently to blo normal during the last half of Mar. Keep in
mind, normal temps are beginning to steadily rise now. Normal high
temps at the end of Mar are in the upper 30s to mid 40s F, around 10
degrees higher than at the beginning of the month.
Beginning Sat/Sat night, shortwave moving thru far northern
Ontario/Hudson Bay tonight/Sat will send associated cold front se
across western Lake Superior and possibly the Keweenaw on Sat. There
won`t be any pcpn due to the forcing displaced well to the n and due
to considerable dry air thru the column, except perhaps at low-
levels. The NAM had been very aggressive with saturating low-levels
thru a fairly deep layer, suggesting considerable stratus
development. While it is backing off, it is still most aggressive.
There are low clouds currently in KS, but they are struggling to
move ne due to higher sun angle/stronger insolation working to mix
out the moisture. NE advancement/development of low clouds should
begin after the sun goes down and mixing ends, but it probably won`t
lead to widespread low cloudiness here already for Sat. Thus,
favored the warmer side of guidance for max temps. Expect highs on
Sat in the low/mid 40s F Keweenaw under e winds and across the e due
to s winds. Temps will range up into at least the mid 50s F w. A
perusal of records for some of the longer established obs sites
across the w shows that max temps will be nearing record territory.
Temps Sat night will only fall back to the lwr 30s e to the around
40F far w, threatening record high min temps.
On Sun, shortwave will swing negative tilt thru the Northern Plains
with associated deepening sfc low lifting thru the eastern Dakotas
to far southern Manitoba. In response, southerly flow will
strengthen into the Upper Great Lakes (850mb winds increase to 45-
55kt). By this time, there is increasing uncertainty in the
potential of low clouds to overspread the area. WAA will work to
strengthen stability, and if that stability is further aided by low
clouds that limit insolation, mixing to stronger winds aloft will be
strongly inhibited. Much of the guidance is suggestive of low
clouds, and so opted to lean toward the conservative side for the
increase of winds Sun with expectation of shallow mixing. For now,
expect gusts to 25-35mph. High terrain and areas that see
downsloping with s to se winds will be on the higher side of that
range. If widespread stratus does develop, some drizzle will also be
possible in areas where upsloping occurs with sse winds. While fcst
highs range thru the 50s F, except where s to se winds are off of
the Great Lakes, those numbers will be optimistic if low clouds
become widespread. On the flip side, if clouds fail to develop,
highs will top 60F over the w, and it will be windier. Highs will
range down thru the 40s F closer to the Lakes.
Cold front will sweep thru Upper MI Sun night. Based on last few
runs of guidance, expect a sct to bkn line of shra only lasting an
hr or two at any location to accompany the front across the fcst
area. There is a little cape for parcels lifted from top of sfc
based stable layer. So, not out of the question that there could be
a rumble of thunder.
On Mon, right entrance of 125+kt upper jet extending from MN to
James Bay will lead to upper diffluence across the area, aiding at
lower levels a sw-ne oriented band of fgen developing/strengthening
across Upper MI. This will support a band of postfrontal rain
developing across the fcst area on Mon, mainly the e half. This rain
will shift e and out of the fcst area during Mon night. There is a
small potential that some -sn will mix in with the rain on the w
edge of the pcpn band. It is noteworthy that the fgen is strong
in some of the guidance, so will need to monitor for a
potential stripe of mdt/hvy pcpn that could switch to all snow.
The midweek period looks dry, at least no strong signals for any
pcpn of note. Late week, trof will shift out of the western U.S.
into the central U.S. There is high spread in the evolution of this
feature, but that`s not surprising at this time range. For now,
there are only a small number of ensembles indicating accumulating
snow for the late week/weekend period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024
VFR conditions are expected at all the terminals through the
forecast period. The only concern is a period of LLWS at all
terminals this evening as winds at the surface decouple somewhat
around sunset this evening but a low-level jet still remains
across the area 1-2 kft off the surface.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 458 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024
With a low pres trof approaching from the nw, expect s to sw winds
gusting to 20-30kt tonight across Lake Superior, strongest across
the e half. The trof will drop across the lake on Sun, resulting in
winds diminishing to blo 20kt. Winds will also become ne across
western Lake Superior and se across eastern Lake Superior by
evening. Late in the day, gusts will increase to up to 25kt over far
western Lake Superior. Winds will increase lakewide Sat night/Sun as
low pres lifts across the eastern Dakotas to southern Manitoba.
While easterly wind gusts will generally be 20-25kt over western
Lake Superior, across the eastern lake, expect s to se winds to 30kt
for Sun. Internal probabilistic guidance indicates a 50-60pct chc of
low end gales across the e half on Sun. Given the strong stability
developing as warmer air moves over the cold lake waters, gale gusts
would occur at high obs platforms. A cold front will sweep across
Lake Superior Sun night. A sharp pres rise of 5-8mb/3hr combined
with advection of cooler air is suggestive of gale gusts lakewide
for a few hrs immediately following passage of the front. If
incoming air mass is colder than currently anticipated, increasing
overwater instability, the gusts could be in the high end gale
range. While sw winds will continue to gust 20-30kt on Mon over
western Lake Superior, winds will fall off to under 20kt across the
e. Expect gusts to 20-25kt for Tue and Wed.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ248-
249.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ250-251.
Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LMZ221.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Rolfson
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
950 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure tracks near Delmarva Saturday
bringing precipitation later tonight through Saturday. Very weak
high pressure briefly returns for Sunday and Monday but the
pattern becomes unsettled beyond this time with multiple areas
of low pressure likely tracking nearby.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 950 PM, cloud cover continues to lower as low-level warm
air advection is increasing some from the south and southwest.
The low-level moisture advection has been slow, however surface
dew points are gradually rising from southeast to northwest. The
nearby 00z RAOBs showed drier air still in the lower levels,
especially below 850 mb. This will result in the initial radar
echos not reaching the ground followed by some sprinkles or very
light rain at the onset. The main rain is expected to fill in
from southwest to northeast after midnight. The initial dry air
and lower dew points will result in some column cooling, which
should result in some snow (possibly some ice pellets) to start
in parts of the Poconos to far northwestern New Jersey. As
warming continues, this will then quickly change to some light
freezing rain then to plain rain. Made some tweaks to the hourly
temperature and dew point grids to account for the latest
observations and trends. Did speed up the PoP increase from
southwest to northeast just a touch based on radar/surface obs
to our southwest and the HRRR guidance.
Otherwise, surface low pressure tracks east then north along
the coast late tonight and Saturday. The center of the low
should be near far southern New Jersey by Saturday afternoon
and will meander off the New Jersey coast into the evening.
Rain develops tonight from southwest to northeast mainly after
midnight for most of the region. Although temperatures will be
warm enough to support rain for the majority of the forecast
area, there are some questions about the southern Poconos and
far northwest New Jersey. Surface temperatures should drop
to or below freezing before the onset of precipitation. As a
result, when precipitation starts there should be a brief
period of snow before changing to a brief period of freezing
rain, then plain rain prior to daybreak across Carbon, Monroe,
and Sussex (NJ) counties. A Special Weather Statement was issued
for these counties to cover this brief period of wintry
precipitation, resulting in an inch or less of snow and perhaps
a light glaze of ice across some of the higher elevations.
Overall, a dark, dreary, rainy, foggy Saturday is on tap for the
first weekend of meteorological spring. As that low lifts towards
New Jersey, there will be a 65 to 70 kt LLJ associated with it. An
inversion at about 1000 ft should keep the strongest gusts aloft,
but 25 or so mph wind gusts will develop along the coast. This
LLJ will also aid in producing moderate to locally heavy rain
from time to time. Not expecting any flooding concerns, but
overall, about 0.5-to 1.0 inch of rain is expected from later
tonight through Saturday.
Highs will be near to slightly above normal, with the best chances
for above normal temperatures in the southern half of the forecast
area, generally ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The low pressure system will move away from the area Sat night and
rains will decrease over the region. Lingering low clouds and
drizzle for the coastal areas will continue, but then diminish by
Sunday morning. A high pressure ridge then returns for the area
for Sunday and into Monday. This will overall result in dry
weather for most areas, but some residual low clouds and perhaps
some drizzle for shore areas is probable. The inland areas will
be mild Sun/Mon as sunshine will be around at times. Cooler
temps will be found over the shore areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the East Coast and
Middle Atlantic regions early next week. This will keep milder
temperatures in place, but as is often the case in the spring,
plenty of clouds will be over the area too. Better chances for
rains will be found towards the middle/later parts of the week
as low pressure heads our way. The latest 12Z global models
disagree with a sfc low moving offshore Mon night/Tue, so the
slight chc pops will remain in the fcst for now. Better chances
for rains exist towards the end of the week.
Mild temperatures much of the week with some cooling towards the
end of the week as readings will fall closer to normal. There is
higher uncertainty with regards to the long term attm.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Rest of tonight...VFR ceilings lowering to MVFR then to IFR
after 06z. Rain arrives overnight. Southeasterly winds 5-10
knots becoming east or east-northeast overnight (some terminals
may go light and variable for a time overnight). Moderate
confidence.
Saturday...IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities along with rain.
East-northeast winds mainly around 10 knots, becoming north to
north-northwest late in the day. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday night...Improving CIGS/VSBYS for inland sites (KRDG/KABE)
but low clouds and drizzle may linger closer to the shore. Low
confidence.
Sunday and Monday...VFR most areas. Lower CIGS possible KACY.
Low confidence.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR possible. Low confidence.
Wednesday... VFR possible. Low confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions tonight with SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Winds
ramp up on Saturday to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt and seas
building to around 5 feet on the ocean waters. Will introduce
Small Craft Advisories on all waters starting Saturday
afternoon, but the SCA will only be in effect for Saturday
afternoon for Delaware Bay.
Outlook...
SCA flags for the ocean waters will continue into Sunday. By
Sunday afternoon, SCA flags will probably be lowered as winds
and seas diminish behind the departing system. Most of the
steady rains will end by Sunday morning, but lingering drizzle
is possible,
sub-SCA should continue Sunday night and into the start of the
new week. Mostly fair conditions Sunday night/Monday with some
rains/drizzle possible Tue. Low confid fcst next week with
various models showing different solutions.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for
ANZ430-431.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 PM EST Sunday for
ANZ450-451.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 6 PM EST Sunday
for ANZ452>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OHara
NEAR TERM...Gorse/MPS
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Gorse/MPS/OHara
MARINE...MPS/OHara
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
545 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Staying warm and dry through early next week.
- Elevated fire weather conditions Saturday through Monday, with
Sunday seeing the greatest risk.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024
Currently this afternoon, upper ridging is in place over the Plains,
ahead of a deep trough moving onto the West Coast. This ridging is
what is bringing a return of mild temperatures to the area. Thus far
today, the main near-term forecast challenge has been the low
stratus deck present over much of eastern Kansas, where a corridor
of enhanced southerly moisture transport is evident. These clouds
have held temperatures in check so far, but now the outer edges of
the stratus are rapidly eroding. This should allow high temperatures
to jump to near 60 quickly once skies do fully clear. Cloud cover
remains a challenge overnight, with some guidance redeveloping a
band of low stratus and even some fog after midnight. The exact
extent of this redevelopment remains uncertain, but seems most
likely along and east of Highway 77. For tomorrow, the extent and
longevity of the stratus will influence how deep the boundary layer
mixes, resulting in some uncertainty in temperatures and humidity.
There is around a 20% chance that stratus lingers long enough to
keep high temperatures closer to 60. However the most likely
scenario is for any low clouds to clear by the afternoon, allowing
temperatures to warm well into the 70s.
By Sunday, the strong upper trough to our west will approach the
Plains, but will lift quickly north towards the Northern Plains.
This will both keep the strongest mid-level ascent to our north and
limit the overall moisture advection ahead of the system. This will
keep precipitation chances Sunday into Monday on the very low end
(around 15%) and confined to the very eastern edges of the forecast
area. The biggest impact still appears to be the potential for
dangerous fire weather, as warm and windy conditions develop on
Sunday between a dryline and approaching cold front. (See fire
weather section for more details on this.) There is still some
uncertainty in the overall movement of the cold front, with
indications for a secondary area of low pressure on Monday that
causes the frontal boundary to briefly lift back north. As was the
case last night, this still results in a 10-15 degree spread between
the 25th and 75th percentile for high temperatures Monday.
Tuesday through the end of the forecast period, southwest flow aloft
remains in place overhead as the longwave trough axis to our west
gradually shifts east. This will keep temperatures mild but not
quite as warm as this weekend, with highs generally in the 60s
through Thursday. As several shortwaves move through the
southwesterly flow, precipitation chances increase some beginning
Wednesday, but confidence in details is low this far out.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024
VFR conditions prevail at terminals with main concern being the
stratus over central Kansas spreading north and east overnight.
Models have struggled in how far east to develop the MVFR to
IFR stratus with the higher probability of it impacting KMHK
from 04-18Z. Given that the RAP and HRRR are consistently
showing a high bias in the low level moisture, I am inclined to
hold off on mentioning at KTOP/KFOE. If stratus were to develop
it would reach the KTOP/FOE sites in the 14-19Z time frame.
Plan is to reevaluate at the next issuance.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024
Fire weather potential increases again this weekend, peaking on
Sunday as a strong upper level system moves across the north-central
CONUS. Saturday may initially see some limited fire danger, with the
exact extent depending on how fast morning low clouds clear out. If
skies clear by afternoon, RH would likely drop to around 30%, along
with south winds gusting to around 25 mph. If low stratus hangs on
into the afternoon, this would tend to keep afternoon RH much higher
at around 50%.
For Sunday, fire danger increases as a dryline sets up across far
eastern Kansas, with very dry and windy conditions immediately
behind the dryline. At the same time, a cold front will begin to
move into north-central Kansas. Expecting RH to fall below 20
percent behind both the dryline and cold front, but winds will be
slightly weaker behind the cold front as they begin to veer to the
west and northwest. As a result, the focus for the most extreme fire
danger will be in the area between the cold front and dryline, where
southwest winds could gust up to 40 mph. There is some uncertainty
as to how large this area will be, as the trend in recent guidance
has been to speed up the cold front, keeping winds a bit weaker
across much of the area. Will continue to monitor these details over
the next few days, but fire weather products are still looking
likely (60-80%) regardless of the exact wind strength.
By Monday, RH still looks to be low behind the cold front, though
perhaps not quite as low at 20 to 25%. Winds will likely also be
slightly weaker, with gusts to around 25 mph. So fire danger doesn`t
appear quite as high for Monday, but still elevated for much of the
area.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Updated at 340 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024
Record Highs:
March 3
Record Forecast
Topeka 80 in 1910 80
Concordia 79 in 1946 73
Record Warm Lows:
March 3
Record Forecast
Topeka 52 in 1992 55
Concordia 50 in 1983 50
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Prieto
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Reese