Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/28/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1003 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong cold front pushing through the region this afternoon
and evening will continue to drop temperatures rapidly
overnight, reaching the single digits and teens overnight.
Wind chills will be below zero tonight through Wednesday
morning. Highs on Wednesday will not escape the freezing mark.
- A quick round of rain changing to snow will produce
accumulations of up to 1 to 2 inches tonight. Increasing winds
of 30 to 45 mph tonight could produce localized visibility
reductions. Be watchful for slick spots on untreated surfaces.
- Another period of dry and very warm weather is expected late
week and this weekend, temperatures could once again reach
into the 60s and 70s across the region this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Rest of Today - Tonight: Colder, Windy, Evening and Overnight Snow
Enjoy the last few hours of spring-like temperatures while you can
as the advertised cold front is quickly progressing across our
region at this moment. Currently, the front is very noticeable on
surface observations with La Crosse sitting at 63 degrees as of 2pm
and Rochester at 38 degrees. As we continue through the afternoon
and evening, temperatures will fall rapidly with temperatures
reaching the teens and 20s by midnight.
Along with the cooling temperatures, a very strong frontogenesis
signal at 600-800mb shown in the 27.19z RAP will help maintain a
band of precipitation that moves through region presenting as a
quickly transitioning band of rain to snow. There may be a
brief period of sleet (20% chance) where soundings show a slight
warm nose at around 800mb this evening. Forecast remains
relatively on track with the only slight change being marginal
increase in snow totals per the 27.12z HREF showing some signal
for amounts of 1 to 2 inches in spots when also considering some
of the heavier snow bands over portions of Nebraska and Western
Minnesota today.
Additional considerations with this frontal passage will be
increasing winds with the tightening surface pressure gradient
along the boundary. Winds during the late evening through
Wednesday morning could gust from the northwest at 30 to 45 mph,
leading to both visibility reductions from falling snow as well
as slick spots on untreated surfaces with the combination of
the rapidly cooling temperatures. Certainly would be a good idea
to take things slow when traveling later this evening and bring
along warmer clothing if heading out as spring-like
temperatures will not last this evening as wind chills could be
as low as the single digits by 8pm across southeast Minnesota.
Wednesday: Winter Makes a Brief Return
With the aforementioned strong cold front clearing through the
region, temperatures will be below normal for the day Wednesday.
With both the winds remaining elevated with gusts of 30 to 45
mph through morning, expecting wind chills to dip as low as 5 to
15 below zero. Certainly a large difference from this
afternoon. With the upper-level trough in place expecting highs
to remain in the upper teens to 20s for the region with clearing
skies through by the afternoon hours. Winds will gradually
diminish by the evening as surface high pressure centers itself
just to the south of our region.
Thursday - Monday: Very Warm Temperatures By Late Week
Late week, the upper-level flow pattern will feature a narrow, upper-
level trough pushing east of the region. In its wake, a large scale
upper-level ridge will move in from the west becoming the
predominant feature to watch through the next week. As a result,
with subsidence underneath the ridge in place, diurnal mixing could
be fairly deep once again for this time of year allowing for dry,
sunny and warming temperatures with highs around the 50 degree mark,
a pretty dramatic turnaround after the colder air push on Wednesday.
Friday will continue to warm as a shortwave will pass south of the
region. This should help work some moisture back into the region
with deterministic guidance (27.12z NAM/GFS) showing some 850mb
moisture transport working through the region. However, with the
track of the wave further to the south, current guidance does not
expect any precipitation at this time.
As we head into the weekend, highs will continue to increase through
the weekend with the NBM percentiles already showing very high
confidence of well above normal temperatures. The most extreme
example of this is the recent 25th to 75th percentile of the NBM
showing highs of 70 to 73 at La Crosse respectively for Sunday!
Additionally, with the 27.00z EFI showing fairly high values
relative to model climo (over 0.8), this is already a high
confidence forecast displayed by guidance for another period of
exceptionally warm weather, perhaps record breaking. Further
beyond that, most of the deterministic long-range models
(27.12z GFS/EC) and their probabilistic ensembles show a signal
for a fairly robust cold front to breeze through the region yet
again going into early next week. Exact details in timing and
precipitation trends are still in flux but with both the CSU
machine learning probabilities showing a 5% risk for severe
weather during this period and cold advection on the backside of
the front. Both convective and winter weather could possibly be
in play for the midwest.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 949 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Snow showers are expected to continue to move from west to east
tonight behind a potent cold front that`s bringing strong,
gusty northwest winds across the area. MVFR conditions will
continue through the overnight hours before improving to VFR by
Wednesday afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will slowly diminish
through the day Wednesday.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Naylor
AVIATION...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1025 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front approaching from the west will bring soaking
rains and strong wind gusts to southern New England tonight into
Wednesday evening, followed by sharply falling temperatures later
Wednesday night. Dry Thursday but windy and colder than normal, then
temperatures moderate and less wind Friday. Mild for the weekend
into early next week, but also wet at times.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
First round of showers associated with the strong warm advection
and a mid level shortwave continued to progress across southern
New England. Tweaked the rainfall chances in an attempt to time
them out better overnight. Thought the last few runs of the
HRRR and NationalBlend were helpful here. Focus of the steadier
rainfall expected to be across the eastern half of southern New
England, especially across RI and southeast MA after midnight.
Winds still expected to increase after midnight. No changes to
current wind headlines at this time.
730 PM update...
Leading edge of rain shield at 7 PM advancing into western
portions of CT and Long Island, moving rapidly NE. This is on
the nose of an increasing low level jet and associated moisture
and thermal advection. This band of rain will overspread the
remainder of CT/MA/RI as the evening progresses. Given rapidly
rising PWATs and forcing for ascent, embedded heavier rain at
times is expected. This low level jet also resulting in dew pts
rising thru the 40s across SNE, on increasing south winds.
Earlier discussion handles this well, therefore no changes with
this forecast update. Earlier discussion below.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
A fast moving mid level shortwave and accompanying deep moisture
plume will move across SNE this evening bringing a period of showers
to SNE. These showers are currently moving through western NY and
central PA and will arrive 7-9 pm in western New Eng and by 10 pm in
eastern New Eng. There is some convection and lightning to the west
with these showers but not much instability in SNE as these showers
move through so not expecting any thunder, but there could be some
locally heavy downpours with surging PWATs and some decrease in
static stability. Best chance for locally heavy showers will be
across RI and SE MA within the axis of the strengthening low level
jet. After the shortwave exits around midnight, there will likely be
a lull in the precip in the interior, but showers will be more
persistent across SE New Eng through the night. Winds begin to ramp
up tonight as the low level jet strengthens with gusts increasing to
35-45 mph along the south coast late tonight, with 20-30 mph gusts
further in the interior. Mild night with temps holding in the mid-
upper 40s, but rising into lower 50s in eastern MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points...
* Strong to damaging wind gusts developing near the coast Wed, then
expanding across rest of SNE Wed night as winds shift to west
* Locally heavy rainfall near the south coast
* Sharply falling temps Wed night with rain possibly changing to a
brief period of snow before ending. Minor accum possible over the
higher elevations
Wednesday into Wednesday night...
Rather dynamic mid level trough approaches from the west and sweeps
across New Eng Wed night, with a strong cold front quickly moving
though the region 8 pm to midnight. PWAT and low level wind
anomalies are 3-4SD above normal which is a good signal for heavy
rainfall and strong wind. Will break it down below.
Heavy rainfall...
Expect periods of showers Wed into Wed evening as anomalous PWAT
plume lifts north into SNE with low level jet and favorable upper
level jet dynamics providing deep layer lift. Not expecting
continuous rainfall for entire period but there will be waves of
showers right through Wed evening until the fropa. Instability is
limited so thunder probs are low but strong forcing and SWI near
zero supports locally heavy convective showers. Hi-res guidance
supports some sort of fine line moving in from the west along the
front, but it is weakening as it moves into the region. Best chance
for locally heavy rainfall will be along the south coast along the
nose of the low level jet. This is where locally 2-3 inches of rain
is possible, including what falls tonight. Elsewhere, expect 0.50"
to 1.50" rainfall. River flooding is not anticipated, but minor
street flooding in urban and poor drainage areas is possible where
rainfall exceeds 2 inches. However, impacts should not be
significant.
Strong wind...
Complex wind forecast for Wed into Wed night as 2 periods of strong
to potentially damaging wind are expected. One near the coast with
the southerly winds during Wed-Wed evening and a second surge with
the wind shift to west after the cold front passage. The threat for
damaging post frontal winds is greatest over the higher elevations
of northern MA.
As is typically the case with these southerly wind events there is a
low level inversion which complicates the forecast. Always a
challenge to determine how much wind will mix down. Pressure falls
are not particularly impressive but we have a strengthening low
level jet through the day, peaking at 80-90 kt Wed evening over the
Cape/Islands per the hi-res model suite. With temps getting into the
low-mid 50s this should allow 50-60 percent of the LLJ mixing down
which supports 45-55 mph gusts near the coast, and up 60+ mph on the
Cape/Islands. Any convective showers will help to enhance the wind
as well. HREF indicating high probs of gusts over 55 mph on the Cape
so we upgraded to a high wind warning here with wind advisory
remaining across rest of the coastal plain from I-95 south and east.
Another factor is that strong wind gusts will be persistent all day
and into the evening so long duration may enhance any wind issues.
Then we will have to deal with strong west winds along and behind
the cold front. This is a strong front with a strong pressure rise-
fall couplet and sharp temp gradient. Soundings show quickly
deepening boundary layer which will enhance mixing in the cold
advection. Strongest gusts will be over the high terrain in northern
MA, especially the Berkshires and potentially in portions of the CT
valley where 55-60+ mph gusts are possible. The pressure rises are
diminishing as they move east so peak winds will be diminishing
further east, but soundings support a period of 45-55 mph gusts
across rest of SNE along and behind the cold front. High wind watch
for the Berkshires was expanded east to include the Worcester Hills
and wind advisories were issued elsewhere.
Temps and potential snow...
Strong cold advection behind the front will result in sharply
falling temps Wed night from the 50s through the 30s a 3-6 hr
period, with morning lows in the 20s. Wind chills by Thu morning
will be in the single numbers and teens, and close to zero in the
Berkshires. So quite a different feel from Wed evening.
While it will be drying behind the front, there is a short window
with enough moisture for a brief changeover to snow before the
precip ends. Not much accum expected with generally a coating, but 1-
2 inches accum possible in the Berkshires. There is a low risk for
isolated icy spots as temps drop, especially where any minor accum
occurs, but otherwise not a big concern as strong winds and rapid
drying will dry out pavement before any freezing.
Coastal Flooding...
We are forecasting up to a 2 ft surge for Providence which will
still keep the total water level below 7 ft. Need a 3 ft surge for
minor flooding which is unlikely at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points
* Thursday - winter cold returns with wind chills in the teens!
* Friday - not as cold and remaining dry
* Weekend & early next week - mild but wet at times
Thursday...
Cold blast behind departing system, with strong CAA (850 mb temps
-15C 18z Thu and -9C at 925 mb) into SNE. Sunshine and
downsloping WNW winds will only yield highs of 30-35, upper 20s
high terrain. Wind chills will be even colder, with WNW winds
15-25G40 mph, possibly up to 50 mph at times across the
Berkshires. This will yield WC in the single digits and teens
in the morning, but only coming up to the teens and low 20s
during the afternoon.
Friday...
Not as cold with mid/upper trough over southeast Quebec continuing
to lift eastward. High pressure sliding southeast of New England
will promote SSW return flow, allowing cold morning temps in the
teens and 20s to rebound to 45-50 during the afternoon, along with
sunshine.
Weekend into early next week...
Southwest flow will result in mild temps but also wet at times, as
Gulf and Atlantic moisture advected northeast in the SW flow aloft.
Large model spread in guidance here on timing the timing of this
moisture, along with amplitude of downstream flow across the
northwest Atlantic. Much of the guidance does agree on dry weather
possibly lingering into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Mix of conditions this evening across southern New England,
although mainly MVFR/VFR. Pockets of IFR across the higher
terrain. Conditions expected to lower to more widespread
IFR/MVFR after 06Z through the morning push. Heaviest rainfall
and lowest visibility should be across the eastern half of
southern New England after midnight.
Previous discussion below.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Overall moderate confidence.
VFR area wide at the moment, and for just about everyone, that
will be the case through about 00z. There is some thin low
level stratus/fog is lingering just off the NE MA coast. Might
come awfully close to BOS prior to 20z due to a light onshore
sea breeze flow there, but thinking right now that a
strengthening southerly flow will ultimately push that stratus
northward. However mother nature will do what she wants, so it`s
something to monitor as I did not include it in the forecast.
Otherwise conditions deteriorate this evening and overnight.
Guidance suggests another round of low stratus forming between
22z-01z along the south coastal areas. At the same time, showers
will be rapidly approaching from the west. All that moisture
should result in the rapid expansion of low stratus (with IFR
ceilings) across the region by 05z. And then it`s pretty much a
locked in weather pattern for the entirety of Wednesday.
Occasional showers with IFR ceilings.
The other component to the forecast will be strengthening winds.
Winds in the 1000-5000ft altitude range will be rapidly
increasing tonight and through the day Wednesday, especially
across southeastern New England. By late in the day, winds at
5000ft are expected to be in the 70-90kt range across
southeastern areas, and 50-60kt elsewhere. This will produce
widespread LLWS starting overnight and through tomorrow. Surface
winds will also start to increase, with 20-30kt gusts in most
areas by 12z Wednesday. Expect gusts around 40kt across across
eastern areas (BOS, PVD, FMH, HYA, ACK) by Wednesday afternoon.
Wednesday night will start IFR, but a fast moving and strong
cold front will push across the region. VFR conditions could
develop after midnight in many areas. However, with the fronts
passage a quick wind shift to the northwest will occur. Frequent
strong gusts in excess of 40kts are expected at all locations,
with chance of 50kt+ for western portions of the area (ie: BAF).
KBOS TAF...moderate confidence. small possibility that brief IFR
occurs this afternoon prior to 20z if the thin stratus/fog over
Boston Harbor moves over the airport. Sea breeze should move out
22-23z. Timing of onset of IFR and precipitation may be off by a
couple of hours this evening.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of onset of IFR and
precipitation may be off by a couple of hours this evening.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt.
Thursday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.
Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up
to 30 kt.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR
possible. Slight chance RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Gale Warnings continue for all waters for 2 periods of gale
force winds. Strengthening low level jet will bring southerly
gales to the waters late tonight into Wed evening with gusts to
45 kt, then post frontal westerly gales later Wed night. Reduced
visibility in rain and fog tonight into Wednesday night.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to
14 ft.
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Friday through Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
CTZ002.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
CTZ003-004.
MA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
MAZ005-006-012.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
MAZ007-013>015.
High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
afternoon for MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
MAZ016>021.
High Wind Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
MAZ022>024.
RI...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
RIZ001.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
RIZ002>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ230.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ231>235-237.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ236.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ250-254>256.
Gale Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Nocera
NEAR TERM...KJC/Nocera
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/Nash
MARINE...KJC/Nocera
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
619 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow ending this evening. Strong winds returning to the wind
prone areas of southeast WYoming tonight through Wednesday.
- Mild temperatures will return for Thursday through Saturday,
with strong winds again looking increasingly likely for the
wind prone locations of southeast Wyoming for Friday and
Saturday.
- Another round of heavy mountain snow possible Saturday through
Monday with much colder temperatures. Light to moderate snow
possible in valleys and lower elevations.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024
The last round of snow showers combined with breezy winds is
quickly advancing across extreme portions of southeast WY early
this evening. Expect coverage to dissipate quickly in the next
couple of hours as we have surface high pressure sweeping
towards our cwa. The cold air continues to be entrenched across
the region, but partial cloud cover will limit most areas to
single digits and teens for overnight lows. The remainder of the
forecast is on track as we quickly transition to gusty winds in
the wind prone areas overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024
Cold front lays along a line from north central Colorado...north
to Laramie...then west northwest to Medicine Bow and Muddy Gap.
Getting some pretty healthy snow showers developing along this
front with a line moving through northern Laramie County at this
time. HRRR simulated radar seems to be picking up this activity
pretty good on timing and location this afternoon.
Kept winter headlines going this afternoon for Arlington and the
Snowy/Sierra Madre Ranges. SNOTELS still picking up some SWEs
and we have seen low visibilities on and off out near Arlington
this afternoon. Decided to let the winter headlines continue
through expiration time.
HRRR simulated radar continues to show snow shower development
roughly from Shirley Basin...southeastward to Cheyenne after 00Z
for a time before lifting northeast and eventually dissipating
through the late evening. Winds shift back to the west this
evening as upper shortwave shifts southeast. Gradients begin to
increase this evening as winds shift westerly. Craig to Casper
850/700mb height gradients near Arlington up near 58/53mtrs at
03Z...increasing to near 90/74mtrs by 12Z Wednesday. Random
Forest high wind guidance shows a marked increase in high wind
chances up near 40 percent by 03Z and 90 percent by 12Z out at
Arlington. Bordeaux up near 30 percent by 06Z and 50 percent by
12Z. GFS 700/750mb winds increase to 60kts/50kts after 06Z. Decided
to upgrade watches to warnings for the wind prone areas.
Later shifts will need to watch the surrounding forecast zones
around the wind prone areas...namely WYZ 115 (Laramie) and 118
(Cheyenne) for possibly short fused high wind warnings. GFS
soundings showing 45kts forecast just off the surface at both
Cheyenne and Laramie. Gradients as strong as forecast usually do
result in some spillage of high winds out into adjacent
zones...so evening and mid shift may want to consider including
these zones.
Winds look to ease Wednesday afternoon over the Summit and by
Bordeaux. Local WRKHGT product still showing strong wins out
west by Arlington and Muddy Gap through 12Z Thursday before they
ease...so ending times of these warnings run through 12Z
Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024
Warm temperatures and gusty to strong winds remain the story until a
cold front moves through Saturday night followed by a stronger cold
front Sunday bringing much colder temperatures, heavy mountain snow,
and potentially light to moderate snow at lower elevations and
valleys.
Forecast high temperatures Friday and Saturday with ridging and
strong westerly, downsloping flow, are sitting in the 40s to low 50s
west of the Laramie Range and 50s to low 60s east of the Laramie
Range. These temperatures in the High Plains are 15 to 20 degrees
above-normal for the end of February! Wind gusts are expected to
remain elevated through Friday night before starting a downward
trend. Internal guidance has 40 to 60 percent probabilities of high
winds (greater than 58 mph wind gust and/or sustained 40+ mph for 1
hour) near Arlington and Bordeaux and near 20 percent in the South
Laramie Range. For now, the highest confidence is in wind gusts 40
to 50 mph with brief periods of 55+ mph wind gusts through Friday
afternoon.
The pattern change comes over the weekend. Most long range guidance
has the low staying well north of the forecast area, which typically
means heavy mountain snow, light to moderate snow in valleys, and
breezy conditions. Looking at ensemble clusters, even the most
aggressive solutions still only have 1 to 3 inches of snowfall in
valleys and lower elevations. Highest confidence at this time is in
much colder temperatures starting Saturday night. Ensembles are
generally in agreement showing the initial, weaker cold front
pushing through Saturday evening with low temperatures 5 to 15
degrees cooler than the previous night`s. Then, the stronger cold
front moving into southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska Sunday
afternoon. Low temperatures Sunday night are forecast to be in the
low teens to 20s, and high temperatures Monday in the mid 20s to 30s
with the warmest temperatures in the High Plains. Snowfall in the
mountains will likely persist from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon. In the High Plains, the best chance for snowfall based on
the current frontal timing is Sunday night through Monday.
Confidence remains low in snowfall amounts though. Confidence should
increase Friday into Saturday as the low makes its way into the
Pacific Northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 455 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024
Upper level trough axis will continue to push east across the Great
Plains tonight with snow showers coming to an end across southeast
Wyoming and western Nebraska this evening. Occasionally breezy or
windy conditions expected through Wednesday afternoon.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: A few snow showers will continue near KLAR
and KCYS, resulting in brief IFR VIS until 04z. Otherwise, CIGS will
lift and dissipate with VFR conditions for the rest of tonight for
all terminals. Windy conditions will redevelop for KLAR and KRWL and
eventually KCYS after 06z with westerly gusts up to 40 knots
possible.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 5 AM MST Thursday for
WYZ104.
High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ106.
High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for WYZ110.
High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM MST
Wednesday for WYZ116-117.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BW
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...LEG
AVIATION...SF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
447 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024
Very windy conditions with areas of blowing dust will continue
through the early evening. Winds calm down heading into Wednesday
as precipitation chances increase Wednesday evening through
Thursday morning. Quiet weather returns for Friday and Saturday
with warming temperatures and the return of breezy winds. The next
system moves in on Sunday, bringing with it windy conditions and
the potential for blowing dust.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024
Overall, no changes from previous forecast packages. The threat for
strong to damaging winds will continue to exist this afternoon and
evening hours as an upper level storm system intensifies over the
region. Winds across the area having been gusting upwards of 60 mph
with higher gusts possible through the afternoon. As a result, a
slew of products remain in effect through the evening hours of
today. High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory remain in effect
through 11PM this evening, with a large zone based Dust Advisory
for areas east of the the Dust will run until 5PM.
RAP analysis shows upper level trough over the Northern Rockies with
it`s associated polar jet across the Fours Corners vicinity. This in
combination with a southwesterly orientated sub-tropical jet
currently over the Desert Southwest, merging with aforementioned
polar jet is leading to very strong winds aloft. 17Z WSMR RAOB shows
strong winds extending down to around 700 millibars. However,
there`s a subtle stable layer between 9000-9500 ft AGL. RAP
soundings seem to be handling this the best, showing most areas
mixing into this layer of stronger winds around 1-2PM. That being
said, with the presence of a strong surface pressure gradient
spanning the area, winds will continue to ramp up through the
afternoon.
For Wednesday and Thursday, confidence is increasing that most, if
not all of the area should see some precipitation. Global
deterministic models and their respected ensemble suites show a
cutoff upper level low moving ENE out of Baja/Sonora vicinity and
into SEern AZ and SW NM Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning. As this system progresses across SWern NM, a swath of light
to moderate precipitation will occur across most of the area, with
the heaviest totals occurring areas along and west of the Divide
and in the Gila. All in all, expect rainfall totals between
0.10-0.20" for El Paso and surrounding areas during the Wednesday
afternoon/evening to Thursday morning timeframe. With a
sidedoor/backdoor cold front moving in across the area roughly at
the same time, snow levels in the mountains will drop to around
7,000 feet. That said, light to moderate snow showers will be
likely in the Gila and Sacramento Mtns. As of now, the main
scenario in terms of winter precip will bring minor impacts for
elevations above 8,000 feet. NBM 50th percentile snowfall totals
range from 1-3 inches, mainly above 8,000 feet. So for now, no
winter headlines will be issued.
For Friday and Saturday, mostly quiet weather returns to the region
with breezy winds and warming temperatures. Flow aloft will flatten
out with slight ridging that will take place. High temperatures each
afternoon will be 3-7 degrees above the seasonal average for the
beginning of march.
Active weather returns for Sunday and beyond, as another Pacific
storm system moves onshore over western CONUS and moves across the
Intermountain West/Central Rockies. Subsequent upper level flow over
the region will become SWerly. With increased cyclonic upper flow
over the Rockies, lee-side surface low will form and intensify over
the Front Range. With most of the associated moisture over the
central/northern Rockies. It looks to remain dry and windy over
southern NM and far west TX on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 437 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024
Active weather conditions with minimal to marginal impacts due to
strong winds and area of lower visibilities due to blowing dust.
Winds generally W in the 25-35 kt range with gusts 40-45 kt range
through 02z. Areas of blowing dust with vsby reductions down to
3-5 SM, with local areas of dense dust with vsby down to 1 SM
through 02z. AFT 02z, after sunset and inversion beginning to set
up, winds will begin to slacken and trend more NW, but remain
breezy to windy in the 20-25kt range with gusts 25-30kts through
04-05z. Dust will settle quickly btwn 01-02Z with vbsy back to
P6SM. By 06z winds NW to N in the 10-15kt range. Skies will
continue BKN-OVC through the period with cigs btwn 180-220
overnight. Some lower mid level clouds move in tomorrow aft 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024
Fire weather conditions will be LOW through the remainder of the
work week. Min RHs will be 20-35% (north) and 30-50% (south) on
Wednesday. The next system will move across SWern NM Wednesday night
into Thursday, bringing with it increased chances of precipitation
areawide. Wetting rains expected for lowlands and mountain foothills
with light to moderate snow showers for elevations above 8,000ft.
For Thursday, Min RH values will be 30-50%, higher in the mountains
with slightly below average temperatures. Winds Wednesday and
Thursday will be breezy out of the E/SE on Wednesday and S/SW on
Thursday. Smoke ventilation rates on Wednesday will be Fair to Good
and Poor to Fair and Thursday.
Quiet weather conditions with warming temperatures can be expected
on Friday and Saturday. Min RHs will return to near Critical levels
both days for the lowlands and mountain foothills. Smoke ventilation
rates will be Good to Excellent on Friday and Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 52 64 46 66 / 0 50 90 20
Sierra Blanca 48 56 38 62 / 0 70 90 30
Las Cruces 44 62 42 64 / 0 40 90 20
Alamogordo 41 64 38 59 / 0 20 80 30
Cloudcroft 28 41 26 37 / 0 20 90 50
Truth or Consequences 39 59 40 61 / 0 20 80 20
Silver City 36 56 36 55 / 0 60 90 20
Deming 41 60 38 64 / 0 60 90 10
Lordsburg 40 61 39 62 / 0 80 80 10
West El Paso Metro 50 63 44 64 / 0 50 90 20
Dell City 46 61 37 65 / 0 30 90 30
Fort Hancock 49 62 41 68 / 0 70 90 20
Loma Linda 46 56 37 58 / 0 50 90 30
Fabens 51 64 43 67 / 0 50 90 20
Santa Teresa 46 61 42 64 / 0 50 90 20
White Sands HQ 48 63 44 63 / 0 30 90 30
Jornada Range 42 63 40 63 / 0 30 90 30
Hatch 41 65 41 65 / 0 40 90 20
Columbus 46 61 42 64 / 0 70 90 10
Orogrande 45 61 40 60 / 0 30 90 30
Mayhill 34 49 28 52 / 0 10 80 30
Mescalero 31 54 29 48 / 0 20 80 60
Timberon 32 49 27 48 / 0 20 90 30
Winston 31 54 32 56 / 0 30 80 20
Hillsboro 36 59 35 61 / 0 40 80 20
Spaceport 39 62 38 61 / 0 30 80 20
Lake Roberts 31 57 32 56 / 0 60 80 30
Hurley 35 57 34 58 / 0 60 80 10
Cliff 36 64 38 63 / 0 60 80 10
Mule Creek 36 59 37 58 / 0 60 80 10
Faywood 38 57 37 59 / 0 50 90 20
Animas 43 61 39 64 / 0 80 80 10
Hachita 43 61 39 64 / 0 70 80 10
Antelope Wells 44 61 37 65 / 10 70 70 0
Cloverdale 44 57 39 60 / 10 80 70 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for TXZ419.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
TXZ418>424.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for TXZ418-420>424.
NM...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ406>410-
414>417-426-427.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ407-
409>411-414>417-427>429.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ403-411-425-
428-429.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...14-Bird
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
747 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe Weather Potential Remains This Evening and Tonight
- Powerful Cold Front Brings Snow, Wind and Slick Roads Wednesday
- Dry and Warming Trend Into The Weekend
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 733 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024
Adjusted POPs and Weather for tonight to match up with radar
trends and generally followed the HRRR with a line of storms
expanding eastward from the cluster of convection across northern
Illinois in an area of stronger theta-e advection. Still expect
the main threat to be large hail, but a wind threat and chance for
at least a brief QLCS-type tornado exists across the southern CWA
border.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024
- Severe Weather Potential Remains This Evening and Tonight
Our thinking has not changed much over the course of the last few
days and even as the event approaches we continue to believe we
will see some severe weather in the 700pm to 300am time frame
tonight. The parameter space is at levels we thought it would be
if not even a bit better. Surface based CAPE values are 2,000 j/kg
in our Southern CWA. The SPC mesoanalysis page along with current
RAP soundings in Southern Kalamazoo County show the cap has
eroded. MUCAPE values in the same 19z RAP sounding show MUCAPE
values of 2300 j/kg and 0-6km deep layer shear of 33 knots. The
shear values should increase as the low level jet moves in this
evening as does the upper level jet from the plains. Plenty of
shear will be available. Therefore, organized storms are expected
with rotating updrafts. Severe wind and hail are distinct
possibilities as are isolated tornadoes.
Regarding the tornado threat a secondary surface low looks to be
developing in the Northeast Missouri vicinity. This low is
forecast to lift northeast across Lake Michigan this evening which
may tend to lift a warm front into the southern CWA near I-94. The
warm front may become a focus for convection and the possibility
of acquiring stronger low level shear. Storm modes will be mixed
with lines and bows with a few embedded supercells as well. The
radar is expected to become active later this evening with the
most concerning time frame likely between 700pm and midnight.
Storms will continue after midnight but the may tend to be outflow
dominant by then. Bottom line...all hazards remain in play.
Watches and warnings are certainly possible this evening and
overnight.
- Powerful Cold Front Brings Snow, Wind and Slick Roads Wednesday
A very strong cold front will plow through the area late tonight
and Wednesday morning. Temperatures around daybreak across it will
range from the 50s in Detroit to the single digits in Wisconsin.
Rain water on area roads and sidewalks may flash freeze in the
400am to 1000am time frame as the cold front surges through the
area. We have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for our western two
rows of counties as this is where more snow will occur. We think a
half inch is likely in many areas with local amounts up to 1-2
inches. The rapid drop in temperatures and burst of snow will
likely result in some travel problems Wednesday morning.
To the east, a Wind Advisory will be issued for the eastern 2 rows
of counties. There will be a little bit of snow there as well, but
much less. Most locations will see a trace. A few spots may see a
half inch. The flash freeze is a possibility as well, but given
less snow we went with the bigger threat and that is the wind.
Wind gusts on Wednesday will be 40-45 mph in the west and 45 to 50
mph in the east. Some power outages are likely on Wednesday in
spots.
- Dry and Warming Trend Into The Weekend
Upper level ridging and high pressure build in through the weekend.
We`ll have to watch a brief shortwave trough that moves through
Friday. At this time this system looks to track just south of our
area. Under the ridge temperatures are expected to warm each day
with pretty good agreement in the ensembles of highs in the 30s on
Thursday warming into the 60s by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024
VFR conditions early this evening with south winds gusting to 20
to 25 knots at times along with some LLWS. A line of strong to
severe thunderstorms storms will bring IFR conditions around 03Z
to 04Z near AZO and BTL. These storms could bring wind gusts to
50 knots and hail more than one inch in diameter. The storms will
be moving through central Lower Michigan, including MKG, GRR and
LAN, as well as JXN between 04Z to 05Z. There will be scattered
showers and thunderstorms behind the line of storms through about
08Z.
A strong cold front moves through Lower Michigan around 12Z and
this is followed by strong northwest winds gusting to 40 knots at
times as well as snow showers that will bring areas of IFR
conditions across western Lower Michigan through Wednesday
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024
Multiple hazards ongoing and expected over Lake Michigan over the
next 24 to 36 hours. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was issued early
today for the fog bank over Lake Michigan north of Holland. This
area of fog is somewhat ephemeral in that it is currently
shrinking in size after being somewhat widespread earlier this
afternoon. It is occuring due to high dew point air riding over
cold Lake Michigan waters. This will continue to be the case until
the cold front sweeps through overnight. So, the fog may be
somewhat in and out this evening but the threat remains so we will
continue the advisory.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect now and continues into the
overnight. The SCA transitions into a Gale Warning at 100am. Winds
in the mixed layer are 40 knots over Lake Michigan so gales to
that level are expected given the well mixed air behind the cold
front. Winds should drop below Gale Force Wednesday evening, but
it will stay windy through Wednesday night.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for
MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ039-040-045-
046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ostuno
DISCUSSION...Duke/RAH
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1052 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will approach from the Mississippi Valley
tonight then move across our area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Expect showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. A brief period
of dry weather is expected Thursday before unsettled conditions
return Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures will be a bit
chilly on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
As of 1056 PM Tuesday: No changes necessary for the mid-evening
update, as temp/dewpt trends look good. Still quite a lot of light
returns on the KGSP radar this evening, but much of it was aloft
or perhaps only reaching the ground as sprinkles.
Otherwise...a strong frontal boundary extends southward from the
upper Midwest, while a moderate shortwave trough sweeps across the
central portion of the CONUS. To the south, the subtropical jet
continues to feed in moisture ahead of the FROPA. Guidance from
the NAM indicates the strong isentropic ascent weakens Tuesday
night and pressure height falls gradually creep across the region
overnight. Most of the rain showers will diminish in the mid-
to late-evening with an occasional pop-up shower likely in the
mountains before midnight. PoP goes down (<15%) through Wednesday
afternoon and quickly ramps up from west to east, coinciding with
the front. As for any thunderstorm possibility, chances are looking
low. Guidance from the CAMs do hint at a weak QLCS coming through
quickly in the afternoon, but instability remains limited. The HRRR
and RAP suggest a brief window of sbCAPE around 100 J/kg along the
line. If any can muster, this would be undercut rapidly with the CAA
and drier air behind the frontal boundary. Another hindrance is the
shear parallel flow, not aiding to much surface wind response for
any sustained updrafts. For these reasons, if any line of storms
can survive the mountains, wind damage may be the only hazard
of concern. Confidence remains low for severe. The front should
be nearing, if not out of, the CWA by the end of this forecast
period. Strong surface winds are likely to be an issue across the
mountains, especially the higher elevations, behind the front. A
Wind Advisory will be in effect Wednesday afternoon for portions
of the NC mountains. In addition to the FROPA and second round of
precipitation, compressional heating from a tightening gradient
will help support well above normal high temperatures. Most of
the area east of the mountains will reach the mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 pm Tuesday: The system impacting the area in the near term
period will depart rapidly on Wednesday evening with small pops
ending during the evening. Some of the precip may become a wintry
mix in the higher mountains before ending, but nothing significant
is expected. What will be more significant is the winds behind this
system on Wednesday evening and overnight. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph
will be possible in the high elevations and in locations near the
Blue Ridge escarpment. A narrow region right along and just
southeast of the escarpment could see gusts of 50 to 60 mph. A wind
advisory has been issued for this scenario. Temperatures by Thursday
morning will generally be in the 20s in the mountains and 30s in the
Piedmont.
Surface high pressure will build into the area on Thursday leading
to lighter winds and dry conditions. Highs on Thursday will be 10-15
degrees cooler than Wednesday, but still only a few degrees below
climo.
Moisture will return rapidly from the southwest Thursday night as
the next system moves out of the Plains into the eastern part of the
country. Precipitation, mostly rain, will approach the area toward
daybreak on Friday. Some of the initial precipitation in the
mountains may be a wintry mix especially in the higher elevations.
The mixed precipitation should not last very long as the warmer air
spreads north and the surface high centered to the northeast moves
away to the east.
A rainy and cool day is expected on Friday as this next system moves
through. This should be the most widespread rain event of the
period, but amounts should be manageable.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 pm Tuesday: Some light rain will linger into Friday night
and early Saturday, but conditions should improve somewhat by
Saturday afternoon. For the rest of the weekend into Monday, there
will be plenty of clouds with a small chance of showers as weak
impulses move through the westerly mid and upper level flow. The
next system looks to impact the area next Tuesday.
The weekend and early next week will feature above normal
temperatures each period.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Some improvement has taken place in
flight category early this evening, with most of the remaining
restrictions confined to the mountains and foothills, more or
less as expected. Guidance indicates that even in those places,
once the light precip production ceases later this evening,
at least temporarily, the ceiling should improve to VFR. Low
level moisture is expected to increase again with the approach
of the cold front from the west in the morning, with a ceiling
restriction in the MVFR category returning in the pre-dawn hours
west and around sunrise at KCLT. Wind is expected to remain S to
SW and gusty for the better part of the period before the actual
cold front arrives from the west late Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of
the front, scattered showers may impact the terminals, followed by
a convective band with the front. Low level forcing looks strong
and models develop some weak instability. The public forecast
will carry a slight chance of thunderstorms, but for now thunder
will be left out of the TAFs, and instead a TEMPO was used to
indicate the timing of the convective band toward the end of the
period. Frontal passage should occur as the precip moves east,
with flight category improving to VFR.
Outlook: Improving to VFR Wednesday evening. Dry conditions return
Thursday before the pattern turns wet again with rain and associated
restrictions likely returning by early Friday.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for
NCZ033-049-050-052-053-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP/PM
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1053 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A potent weather system will bring breezy to windy conditions
and a potential for thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall
and strong wind gusts tonight through Wednesday.
- Temperatures will continue to average around 20 to 30 degrees
above normal through early Wednesday.
- After a sharp cooldown Wednesday night through Thursday night,
temperatures rapidly warm back to around 20 degrees above normal
by Sunday, with the unusual warmth persisting into early next
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2024
Late this evening, mild temperatures were in place across the
region with eastern valleys that had dropped off into the mid to
upper 50s having recovered back into the 60s as clouds have
increased. Along with the increasing and lowering clouds, light
showers are crossing the area. More substantial convection is
expected to developed nearer to a cold front northwest of the area
during the overnight hours and approach eastern KY toward dawn.
Ahead of this convection, winds will be gusty at times, with winds
and gusts much more substantial outside of the deeper valleys.
Locations above 2000 feet near the VA will experience the stronger
sustained winds and gusts tonight. Minor adjustments have been
made to hourly temperatures to account for recent observation
trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 420 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2024
After a morning of active weather across eastern Kentucky, the
area has entered a lull in the activity. A few showers and storms
will be possible across the area overnight, but the next period of
active area will likely not arrive until early Wednesday, as a
strong cold front plows through the region. Base on current obs
trends, it appears that temperatures will slowly increase across
the area through this evening, before falling a few degrees and
then steadying out in the mid to upper 60s overnight. As the next
round of showers and storms move in early Wednesday morning,
temperatures will slowly fall again in response to the incoming
rain and widespread cloud cover. As the cold front moves through,
much colder air will rapidly spill into the area throughout the
day on Wednesday. After starting out in the low to mid 60s early
in the day, we should see the mercury fall into the upper 30s to
lower 40s by the end of the day. The falling temperatures will
continue Wednesday night, as winds remain out of the northwest or
north, and clouds quickly clear out. Morning lows on Thursday
should be in the 20s around the area.
The latest model data, the HRRR and HREF in particular, point to
isolated to scattered showers moving through eastern Kentucky
through around 1 am tonight, before dissipating or nearly
dissipating through very early Wednesday morning. There is pretty
good model agreement with the timing of showers and storms in our
area for Wednesday, with a number of models generally pointing
toward a fast moving lines of showers and storms moving through
the area during the morning. There is an small chance that an
isolated storm or two could product damaging wind gusts on
Wednesday. A number of models are now suggesting, however, that
the instability and lift required for severe weather will be
greatly limited by the time the line of showers and storms that
form overnight reach eastern Kentucky Wednesday morning. With a
marginal risk for severe storms still in place across our area, we
will continue to address the potential for severe weather on
Wednesday.
There is also still the potential for strong and gusty winds
outside of any storms tonight and Wednesday, particularly along
our tallest ridges along the Virginia border. The source of these
strong winds will be the low level jet stream that will be moving
through the region this evening through early to mid- afternoon on
Wednesday. However, based on a number of forecast models,
confidence in the strongest winds being able to reach the surface
across a widespread area, is decreasing. That being said, with
some potential still existing for strong winds for at least some
area around eastern Kentucky, the wind advisory will remain in
effect.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 545 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2024
Less than desirable agreement among solutions, especially after
the first 24-48 hours of the extended portion of the forecast.
Aloft, the pattern is best described as a quasi-zonal to
southwest flow pattern with multiple shortwave disturbances
tracking through generally broad, relatively weak flow. This
suggests a continuation of abnormally warm weather with an
occasional opportunity of precipitation.
Surface high pressure is found along the Mid Atlantic Coast at the
start of the extended, with an upper level disturbance tracking up
the western/southern periphery of the high, producing showers
from the the lower Ohio Valley, through the Tennessee Valley and
into the Deep South. Another, weaker disturbance passes through
the region Sunday before more broad troughing skirts across the
region, and especially Deep South at the end of the forecast
window.
Sensible weather features generally two main unstable periods.
The first is Friday, at the start of the extended and the second
at the end of the forecast window, possibly late Monday into
Tuesday, or more likely Tuesday and just beyond the end of the
period. Weak disturbance does bring a very low chance of rain on
Sunday. Not seeing any strong signals for substantial weather,
meaning March may enter as a lamb this year versus folklore`s
lion. However, warm temperatures are on tap. Normal highs are in
the mid 50s, and lows are typically around freezing this time of
the year. Other than a cool start on Friday with near normal
temperatures, our weather moderates quickly, climbing into the mid
60s on Saturday on the way to mid 70s for Sunday and Monday.
Suspect Tuesday will wind up being in the 70s as well, but an
approaching storms system and accompanying clouds and increased
PoPs at the end of the period may cool temperatures just a bit.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2024
MVFR conditions across the board to begin the TAF period, with
CIGs of 3.5 to 4.5K in place at each of our sites. Isolated
showers and storms are expected late tonight, as a strong low
level jet invades from the south and southwest, bringing lift and
warm moist air into the area. Low level wind shear will be the
primary aviation concern tonight, with 35 to 50kts of shear
possible at times. The aviation concerns for Wednesday look to
strong and gusty environmental winds, and strong wind gusts and
heavy rain associated with a line of showers and scattered
thunderstorms that are expected to move through the area. The
early morning hours, 12 to 15z, look to be the best time for
strong storms. The storms will race across the area as a strong
cold front also pushes through. The strongest non-thunderstorm
winds will likely occur just ahead of, along, and just behind the
passing cold front. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 kts, with gusts of
30 to 50kts, will be possible. These winds should steadily slacken
once the front has moved through. BKN to OVC cloud cover will be
in place for most of the period, but should finally begin to clear
out from 18z onward on Wednesday, as much cooler and drier air
filter in behind the departed cold front. MVFR conditions will be
on tap for the very end of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...AR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
845 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Significant hail threat has lowered, but tornado threat
continues this evening, highest tornado threat along I-80
- Power-house cold front will rip across the area late this
evening with a remarkable temperature drop
- A quick hit of accumulating snow late tonight into tomorrow
morning with a threat for slick morning travel
&&
.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 845 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
The updraft-downdraft portion of the line of storms is getting a
bit more organized, certainly not outflow dominant anymore. The
southern end of the line of storms is shifting across I-80 into
a fairly high significant tornado parameter (STP) environment,
or more-so in the gradient zone in STP. Supercellular processes
seem to be getting going again, which will keep the hail threat
going, and still a lingering tornado threat across the I-80
corridor into northwest Indiana, though the tornado threat will
be diminishing here fairly rapidly after 930 pm CST.
KMD
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Through This Evening:
We find an adolescent low pressure system that`s taking shape
over far northern Missouri. This system is forming along the
cold front of a parent low that`s currently traversing central
Wisconsin. SPC mesoanalysis resolves strong upper divergence
overlaid with some less impressive, albeit present, low level
convergence over northern MO. The low has been deepening at a
good pace dropping its central pressure from 992 to 990 between
11AM and 1PM. Nearby obs and RAP mesoanalysis data suggest that
this low has begun to reel in moisture and instability from the
east along a corridor that will shape into the storm`s warm
front over the next several hours before moving into northern
Illinois.
In our south, efficient low level moisture advection has been
evident on satellite for some time. Now we find low 60s
dewpoints reaching as far north as the Kankakee River valley.
RAP mesoanalysis places 2,000-2,500 J/kg of MUCAPE across areas
south of I-80 and around 1,000 J/kg in far north central
Illinois. A capping inversion rooted around 850 mb remains in
place over most of our area being the strongest in south of the
Kankakee River and east of I-55.
Guidance remains in pleasantly good agreement on this low
tracking right through the heart of the CWA, specifically along
and north of the I-80 corridor. Forcing will be maximized near
the low pressure center and in the system`s narrow warm sector.
A lot of guidance has been consistently convecting on the
northern and northwestern periphery of the low pressure center
which equates to areas northwest of I-55. Here we`ll find the
cold front of the northern parent low catching up to the
mesolow`s warm front and result in strong low level convergence.
Here is where we will also see the best potential for surface-
based convection with the weakest capping in place (in the
vicinity of the I-80 and possibly I-88 corridors). It`s looking
rather likely that we`ll go uncapped for a period late this
afternoon and early this evening. We`re looking at a rather
narrow window of opportunity to see surface based storms before
the cap regenerates early-mid evening. Surface based convection
would mean a notably higher tornado threat with impressive 0-1
km shear. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with
any storms near the low, but the likelihood will be maximized
with surface-based convection. The other item of note is that
the low-level jet may not arrive until after 6-7 PM, which may
modulate the tornado potential prior to its nocturnal
intensification.
Farther south of I-80 and into northwest Indiana, the capping
inversion will be harder to break later today and could possibly
inhibit CI altogether. However, model soundings have been
hanging on to less and less CIN this evening than with previous
runs. The HRRR has been trending toward a more aggressive
solution in this area since later this morning. Another driver
to consider will be a dryline-like feature that will develop in
this area this evening. This could help surface based parcels to
break through the cap and convect. The density discontinuity
doesn`t look quite as impressive as previously forecast, but,
again, we`ll be working with a weaker cap. With the much greater
instability overhead, robust convection with strong, broad
updrafts look very attainable with any surface based storms that
do develop in these parts. Should the cap hold, elevated
convection isn`t out of the question. However, the environment
isn`t nearly as progged for elevated severe storms as areas
farther north.
The severe potential looks to wrap up late this evening, though
the potential for surface based storms should drop off by 8 or
9 PM at the latest when the low levels become too stable. A
stout low level jet will approach our south late this evening
which would almost certainly aid in severe convection south of
I-80 if it wasn`t expected to arrive just a little too late.
Doom
Tonight and Wednesday...
A truly powerhouse cold front will blast through the region this
evening, ushering the severe weather threat east of the area.
Temperatures will fall at an exceptional rate tonight as winds
flip northwesterly--air temperatures are already in the teens
and single digits across the Dakotas and Minnesota, and this is
the airmass headed our direction (with just a bit of
modification along the way). We`re explicitly indicating
temperature changes on the order of 45 to 60 degrees into
tomorrow morning which is obviously pretty remarkable.
With the strong baroclinicity involved, am a bit concerned that
winds will "pop" during the frontal passage as a zone of 6+ mb/3
hour pressure rises blasts across central Illinois. Wind gusts
have been overperforming model guidance immediately upstream,
and suspect that will continue given the notable pressure
rise/fall couplet and density discontinuity associated with the
front. Have elected to hoist a Wind Advisory to cover this
potential late this evening/early overnight for much of the
forecast area.
In addition to the winds, guidance continues to suggest that a
narrow but potentially robust/sharp frontogenetic circulation
will mature in the post-frontal airmass overnight tonight as
the left exit region of a 150+ upper jet blasts across downstate
Illinois and central Indiana. Unfortunately, the placement of
this f-gen circulation remains hopelessly unclear, with some
model output indicating this sets up across far northwest
Illinois into SE Wisconsin, while other guidance is farther
south. The multi-model consensus favors this somewhat farther
south solution at this time. Regardless, if this f-gen band
develops, there`s plenty of instability aloft (near-upright
instability with theta-e lapse rates around or less than 0) to
support a brief burst of heavier rates as the columns rapidly
cools, allowing for a full changeover to snow. Main window for
this occurring is about 3 to 8 am, with the best guess that
we`ll see a coating to perhaps an inch across the central half
of the CWA, although will note there`s a big degree of
uncertainty in placement of any snow band tonight. On the high
end, a 2 inch amount isn`t out of the question.
Finally, given such a robust temperature fall, there`s some
concern for a flash freeze with any lingering wet pavement
overnight, particularly across northwest Illinois where there
will be less time between precipitation ending and sub-
freezing temperatures arriving. Something we`ll also be keeping
a close eye on.
Windy/blustery/cold conditions will occur on Wednesday, with
morning wind chills either side of 0 degrees in most spots.
Temperatures should claw their way towards the mid and upper
20s, but the strong winds will hold wind chills in the single
digits and teens all day. Wind gusts could get close to advisory
criteria (45+ mph) through the day, although current
indications point to winds--on the whole--coming up just shy at
this time.
Carlaw
Wednesday Night through Monday:
No changes to the period beyond Wednesday night given the short
term focus. The previous discussion is included below.
While the below normal temps Wednesday and Wednesday night will
feel harsh coming off the exceptional, record breaking warmth of
Monday and Tuesday, the pendulum will swing right back to spring
through the weekend.
A brief reinforcing surge of cold air advection Wednesday evening
will keep breezy/blustery conditions going for a few hours, with
west-northwest winds gusting up to 25-30 mph. Wind chills will
bottom out in the single digits to lower teens. Ridging from
1030-1035 mb surface high pressure passing to our south will
cause winds to quickly diminish and turn light southerly
overnight. Good radiational cooling will support lows in the mid
teens to around 20F.
The southerly pressure gradient will quickly tighten as the
surface high slides east Thursday afternoon. Southerly winds
gusting to 25-30 mph, warm advection, and full sunshine will
allow afternoon high temperatures to recover to the lower to
mid 40s, or a bit above normal for leap day of what will go down
as one of, if not the warmest Februarys on record. A stout low-
level jet overhead Thursday night should result in breezy
conditions at times, limiting the temperature drop.
A minority of model guidance brings a short-wave far enough
north on Friday to spread clouds and showers into the area, so
our official forecast has a sliver of slight (15-20%) chance
PoPs over the far southern CWA. If the minority solution does
end up coming to fruition, temps may under-perform. On the other
hand, if the short-wave remains to our south, the mid 40s to
lower 50s highs in the forecast may be a bit conservative.
The weekend will offer another taste of early spring fever
thanks to well above normal mid-level heights downstream of
deep western troughing. Persistent warm advection, breezy south-
southeast winds, and plenty of daytime sun suggests highs well
into the 60s if not warmer on Saturday and upper 60s to mid 70s
on Sunday, if not warmer in spots. The official forecast is
above most of the raw guidance, though below the 90th percentile
of the NBM distribution, which has performed better (even
slightly underdone at times) on our recent mild days. With the
ground drying out again and breezy/gusty southerly surface flow,
we`ll have to watch for elevated fire weather concerns if dew
points and RHs end up lower and temps a bit warmer than
forecast, as appears possible. The only minor exception to the
weekend warmth is along the Illinois shore where any east of
south component to the wind will keep daytime temps several
degrees cooler.
Western troughing should eject eastward, at least piece-meal,
early next work week. This will result in another fairly sharp
cold front passage Monday PM/night or Tuesday, though unlikely
to the magnitude of tonight`s per medium range guidance.
Showers and even thunderstorms are plausible out ahead of the
cold frontal to start the work week. The likely (55-70%) PoPs on
Monday and Monday evening in the official blended forecast
appear reasonable enough at this range given good ensemble
support.
Castro
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Forecast concerns include...
Strong to severe thunderstorms this evening.
Powerful cold front/northwest wind shift late this evening.
Period of snow and blowing snow Wednesday morning.
Strong/gusty northwest winds Wednesday.
Current thunderstorms over northwest IL will move east/northeast
across the terminals through mid/late evening. These storms have
the potential to be severe. Hail will be a main threat and have
added hail mention to the current tempo. End timing may need
adjustment but maintained 04z for now. Strong/gusty erratic
winds may also be possible with the strongest storms.
Ahead of these storms, winds will likely remain south/southeast,
possibly becoming southeast with the storms then quickly shift
westerly just after the storms. A powerful cold front will move
across the area in the late evening or early overnight hours,
shifting winds to the northwest with gusts increasing into the
mid 30kt range. The strongest winds will continue through
midday Wednesday and only slowly diminish Wednesday afternoon
and the diminish further Wednesday evening.
Behind the cold front, much colder air will spread across the
area with temperatures likely in the 20s by daybreak Wednesday
morning. A period of snow is possible that at these expected
temperatures will likely be dry enough to blow around. Not all
areas will see the snow and there still are some timing
differences, but tempo mention seems reasonable with this
forecast. There is a small chance for a brief period of sleet or
freezing rain on the leading edge of the snow. cms
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ003-ILZ004-
ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-
ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039-ILZ103-ILZ104-
ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108.
IN...None.
LM...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
the IL and IN nearshore waters.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
929 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Wind speeds have continued to decrease this evening and have
fallen below criteria across the area. Will let the High Wind
Warnings and Wind Advisories expire and will cancel the High Wind
Warnings that are in effect across the Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains.
Updated forecast to include patchy smoke late tonight through
early tomorrow across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.
Current observational trends are indicating smoke from wildfires
in the Panhandle continuing to be advected south along a strong
cold front this evening. This is expected to continue through the
overnight hours as strong winds continue to transport wildfire
smoke. This is further supported by latest HRRR near surface
smoke guidance indicating the continued southward advection of the
smoke plume.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 232 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
It`s amazing what dense high cloud can do to a wind forecast.
Afternoon daytime heating and resulting mixing has been reduced
significantly today holding temperatures back. Finally in the past
hour we have seen the expected increase though it is a bit short
than what we would be seeing on a sunny day. Winds relax some
after sunset before a cold front moves through tomorrow morning,
shifting winds from the northeast and bringing in much cooler
air...if only briefly. Highs will only get into the 50s in the
Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico with some 60s along the
Trans Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.
An upper low on a southerly trajectory will move along the
U.S./Mexico border and instability ahead of it will produce rain,
initially in the Big Bend Wednesday morning then spreading
northeast through the day and into the night. The highest rainfall
totals are expected from the Davis Mountains to southeastern New
Mexico with one quarter to one half inch possible and locations
farther east receiving less. Tomorrow night temperatures drop into
the 30s introducing the possibility of wintry precipitation;
however, temps aren`t expected to get below freezing outside of
the higher elevations and northern Lea County. This combined with
forecast soundings showing a thermal profile near freezing through
a deep layer and temps not conducive to dendritic growth make
wintry precipitation difficult...and accumulations almost
impossible. Therefore icy roads are not expected to be a problem
tomorrow night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
By Thursday morning, light rain chances will continue through the
morning hours with maybe some light snow mixing in across the
Guadalupe and Davis mountains, as well as northern portions of the
southeastern New Mexico plains. There could be some light
accumulation in the highest elevations of the mountains but
impacts to roads are not expected at this time. Precipitation
chances will come to an end from west to east Thursday afternoon
as an upper storm system quickly pulls away to the NE.
Temperatures Thursday afternoon will be slightly warmer than
Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s north to upper 60s south.
Not a lot of change in the extended forecast with dry and warm
conditions expected... The warming trend will continue Friday as
zonal flow develops overhead. Southwesterly winds return at the
surface as a lee surface trough deepens to the north in response
to the next upper system approaching the Central Plains. This will
enhance surface warming through the weekend with highs expected to
be in the 70s and 80s for all but the mountains, where 60s are
more likely. Winds look to increase Sunday and we may see near
critical to critical fire weather conditions return to much of the
region through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, another cold front
looks to be on the horizon early next week but without model
consistency, it`s hard to tell exact timing this far out.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Visibilities are improving as blowing dust settles, with VFR
conditions currently at all TAF sites, and expected to persist
through the next 24 hours. Elevated/gusty westerly winds will
continue this evening into tonight, though a gradual decrease in
wind speeds is expected, especially toward daybreak. Ahead of a
cold front moving into the area, winds will veer to the northwest
before sharply shifting northeast between 10-14Z, with winds
becoming elevated/gusty once again. Gusts to around 20-25kt are
expected until around 18Z, diminishing and shifting to the east
thereafter. Increasing clouds are expected through the day
Wednesday, with rain showers moving into FST near/just beyond the
end of the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Extensive upper cloudiness have kept winds from becoming too
strong today though it has still managed to become very windy the
past hour or two. Winds diminish after sunset and a cold front
will bring a northeasterly wind shift beginning around 3AM in
southeastern New Mexico and continuing into the remainder of West
Texas tomorrow morning. Much colder temperatures and increasing
rain chances will end the fire weather threat for a few days
before dry and windy conditions return late in the weekend and
early next week.
Hennig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 41 50 36 60 / 0 10 70 50
Carlsbad 48 56 36 63 / 0 20 90 30
Dryden 54 65 41 65 / 10 60 50 20
Fort Stockton 52 59 39 67 / 10 50 80 30
Guadalupe Pass 46 51 35 57 / 0 30 90 30
Hobbs 40 51 34 59 / 0 10 90 40
Marfa 46 57 31 65 / 10 80 80 20
Midland Intl Airport 42 50 37 60 / 0 20 80 40
Odessa 44 51 38 61 / 0 20 80 40
Wink 46 57 37 64 / 10 30 90 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Wednesday for
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains.
NM...High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST Wednesday for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...84
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
925 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front continues moving northward tonight followed by a
strong cold frontal passage Wednesday night. Behind it, high
pressure builds in and remains in control through at least
Friday. An inverted trough or wave of low pressure could then
bring unsettled weather over the weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
One area of light to moderate, and briefly heavy, rain was
moving to the east and northeast in association with a shortwave
moving through the east side of an upper trough extending
through the central United States. There will be a break, or the
rain will be be very light, late tonight and toward morning
before another round of rain moving into the region with
another shortwave. Updated probabilities through the overnight
to reflect this, using the latest HRRR and NamNest.
As the area remains in the warm sector of a weakening warm
front, a strengthening LLJ will develop over the eastern half
of the area. This LLJ will help to rapidly advect low level
moisture into the area which should allow for the continued
development of showers through the night. There even remains a
possibility of some isolated thunder in the development of any
heavier convective showers into early Wednesday. Lows tonight
will be warm, generally in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep layer SW flow will dominate Wednesday as the area remains
entirely warm sectored. Periods of rain showers are expected, some
of which may be locally moderate to heavy, especially as the
forcing maximizes ahead of the cold frontal passage Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Highs on Wednesday will be in the middle
50s to low 60s. Overall, around 1 to 1.5 inches of rain is expected
for much of the area, with the highest amounts to the north and east.
One of the biggest impactful aspects of this system is the
potential for strong wind gusts. There will be two separate
opportunities to see advisory level winds in the area over the next
24 to 36 hours. The first is with the mixing down of any winds from
the LLJ ahead of the cold front during much of the day on Wednesday.
There will be a fairly strong inversion in place but with a LLJ
anywhere from 60-80kt near 925 mb, gusts near 40 kt will be
possible. However, it may be the case where the inversion is
strong enough and precipitation is weak enough to not mix down
much of this LLJ energy at all during the day on Wednesday.
Regardless, the potential for strong gusts exists, so a wind
advisory is in effect for the eastern portions of Long Island
and New London County in Southeastern Connecticut to see gusts
in excess of 45 mph in the southerly flow.
The second chance for advisory level wind gusts will be with and
immediately behind the cold frontal passage Wednesday evening and
into the overnight. Strong CAA will allow for a much deeper
mixed layer to bring down strong winds behind the cold front. This
will likely make the wind threat much more widespread than just the
eastern and coastal areas as previously described. As such, a wind
advisory for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and western
Southern Connecticut are in effect. Winds may gust upwards of 40-50
mph with the cold frontal passage and for several hours afterwards
into the overnight period, gradually diminishing in strength toward
daybreak Thursday.
The cold frontal passage will be strong and very noticeable as
a rapid drop in temperatures is expected Wednesday evening.
Temperatures in the middle 50s Wednesday afternoon are expected
to drop into the 30s over a period of 2-3 hours. This rapid drop
in temperatures will be accompanied by the previously described
strong wind gusts which will make feel apparent temperatures
much colder. Temperatures will continue to drop through
Wednesday night such that lows will be in the middle 20s to
lower 30s. Apparent temperatures will be in the teens.
Precipitation will likely come to an end rather quickly behind
the frontal passage, but flakes mixing in on the back end of the
precipitation can`t be entirely ruled out for much of the area,
though no accumulation is expected. There should be enough of a
period of gusty conditions with little to no precipitation such
that much of the ground should dry out before temperatures drop
below freezing. So the potential for a flash freeze situation
appears limited at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds in on Thursday with the flow aloft
becoming less cyclonic. However, still breezy with NW gusts as
cold air advection will still be ongoing. Highs only mostly
35-40, and the wind will make it feel about 10 degrees colder.
The center of high pressure then shifts off the the Mid-
Atlantic coast late Thursday night with a return flow being
established on Friday. Warmer, with highs 45-50.
Friday night begins an extended period when there will be a
chance of rain. A wave of low pressure tries to develop to our
south along a trough. The wave potentially meanders somewhere in
the vicinity between the Mid-Atlantic coast and 40N/70W
benchmark through the middle of next week. Stuck closely to NBM
PoPs (which are limited to chance) from Friday night onward due
to the uncertainty. Precip type should be rain. The only
exception would be a low chance that freezing rain occurs over
parts of the far NW fringe of the forecast area if precip were
to occur late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Temperatures
Saturday through Tuesday above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front continues moving northward overnight. A strong
cold front approaches Wednesday afternoon and moves through the
terminals Wednesday evening.
VFR to MVFR remains, as VFR conditions continue longer than
forecast. An area of light to moderate rain was moving to the
east and northeast, with the rain tapering off or briefly
ending. MVFR to IFR still expected to become widespread for the
overnight. There will be a period of little to no rain overnight,
however, conditions will remain IFR. There may be a period of
brief improvement to MVFR Wednesday morning, especially away
from the coast. Additional periods of rain move in toward
Wednesday morning, and continue until the cold front passage.
Low level wind shear will be strong, with 2000 ft southerly
winds 50kt to 70kt at the NYC terminals and east, and with the
strongest LLWS at KGON, Wednesday morning into the afternoon.
Otherwise, strong and gusty southerly winds continue tonight
through Wednesday, quickly shifting to the west and remaining
gusty Wednesday evening with the frontal passage.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Unscheduled AMD likely for timing of lower flight categories
into Wednesday morning. LLWS may be stronger that forecast with
a low level jet of 65 to 75 kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday evening: MVFR becoming VFR from the NYC metros
north/west, IFR to the east at the Long Island/CT terminals,
then becoming VFR toward 06Z. S winds G35-40kt along the coast
(with LLWS) and 30-35kt inland, shifting quickly to the west
with a frontal passage.
Late Wednesday night: VFR. West winds G30-35kt.
Thursday: VFR. NW winds 20-25G30-35kt in the morning,
diminishing to 15-20G25kt late in the afternoon.
Friday: VFR. S winds G15-20kt along the coast.
Saturday: Chance of rain. MVFR cond possible.
Sunday: Slight chance of rain. Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions overtake all waters this evening with wind gusts
upwards of 25 kt. Winds continue to increase tonight over the
ocean with gale force gusts possible as early as 6Z so a Gale
Warning is now in effect for the ocean and Great South Bay
tonight. Ocean seas are also expected to quickly rise to well
above 5 feet by this evening and up to 10 to 12 feet by
Wednesday morning.
Gale gusts likely on most waters except the NY Harbor Wednesday as
flow increases ahead of a cold front, with mainly 35 to 40 kt gusts
on the ocean waters, occasionally up to 45 kt. Seas reach 15 to 17
ft by Wednesday evening on the ocean. Gale warning then expands to
the NY Harbor Wednesday evening as gusts with the frontal passage
are expected to reach or exceed 35 kt.
Gale conditions continue through Thursday morning, then winds and
gusts diminish as cold air advection subsides and the pressure
gradient becomes weaker. SCA conds for Thursday afternoon and
evening, with sub-advisory conds for most of the waters by around
midnight. Seas on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet may linger above
5 ft through most of the night. High pressure will then be centered
well off to our SE on Friday. SW winds pick up during the day with
marginal SCA conds possible on the ocean. Sub-advisory conditions
otherwise anticipated through Saturday, then oceans seas build with
a swell Saturday night into Sunday as a wave of low pressure tries
to take shape off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Periods of rain/showers are expected as a frontal system moves
through the region this evening through Wednesday night. Total
expected rainfall is generally between 0.75 and 1.5 inches. Outside
the potential for brief nuisance flooding of urban and poor drainage
locales, no other significant hydrologic impacts are expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
CTZ005>007-009>011.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
CTZ008-012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
NYZ067>070.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
NYZ079-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
335-340.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ331-332-335-340.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ338.
Gale Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ338.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MW
NEAR TERM...JC/MET/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
602 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wind Advisory remains in effect through 3 AM CST for gusts up
to 40 mph possible. Winds will shift to the northwest after a
cold front makes passage late tonight and early Wednesday,
with 30 mph or higher gusts still possible.
- The main severe thunderstorm risk begins this evening and
continues into the night. A few discrete cells with tornado
potential are possible this evening, then overnight it shifts
more to a line of storms along and just ahead of the cold
front, with damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornado
hazards.
- Temperatures turn sharply colder after the cold front`s
passage. Wednesday and Thursday highs will struggle into the
40s, with Wednesday night lows in the 20s and Thursday night
lows in the lower half of the 30s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 602 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
CAM modeling shows two camps for convective action...one is warm
sectored, cap busting discrete cells that would carry a higher
tornadic threat and commence early-mid evening. The HRRR and
the FV3 are the most robust with this, shall we call it,
conditional output. All model solutions then go more certain
with linear development as the cold front moves in, with squall
line damaging winds/large hail/isolated tornado threats into the
overnight. A slight to now enhanced risk covers our area and we
agree with that uptick based on the latest data. Compared to
previous instances of February severe weather outbreaks, there
is good consistency in signal, particularly with respect to wind
fields. CGI tied their all time dew point maximum in the month
of February, reaching 65 degrees (previous record February 28,
2017). That was the day of the Perryville, MO EF4.
Gradient tightening continues as the low evolves and drives the
approaching cold front. The Wind Advisory will remain in place
until late tonight. As the front moves in, (gradient) wind gust
maxima will briefly wane. Then after fropa, winds shift to the
northwest and stiffen/get gusty again. It looks like these gusts
will be to 30 mph or better, but maybe stay just shy of
headline extension. This is something to monitor closely though,
in case that becomes warranted on future updates.
The souped up environ includes >1" PW`s for 90th percentile
climo, but the speed of movement of the system means the quick
1/2-1" of locally heavy rainfall should preclude anything more
than localized impacts that are commonplace for prone areas.
A significantly colder air mass draws in behind the cold front
for Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will struggle into the 40s
with lows Wednesday night in the 20s, and the lower half 30s for
Thursday night. This precedes another moderating period over the
weekend where we return to 60s (Saturday), then 70s (Sunday)
heading into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
VFR conditions expected this evening with isolated shra/tsra
possible at all sites, with better chances at KMVN/KEVV/KOWB. A
line of shra/tsra is expected develop and move across all TAF
sites between 05z-12z, accompanied by low VFR to high MVFR cigs
and vsbys. Gusty south winds at 15-30kts with gusts around
35kts this evening will shift to the northwest between 06z-12z
with the passage of a cold front. Northwest winds will gradually
decrease and become less gusty through the day tomorrow.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ098-100-
106>108.
IN...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST /3 AM EST/ Wednesday for INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
AVIATION...RST