Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/25/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
724 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near critical fire weather conditions on Sunday due to low
humidity, gusty winds, and dry fuels.
- Critical fire weather conditions appear likely for much of the
area on Monday.
- A cold front will surge southward through the area on Tuesday,
bringing breezy to strong north winds, colder temperatures and
(possibly) a chance for light snow.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 714 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2024
For tonight, opted to lower the entire areas low temperatures,
given the low dew points, light winds and clear skies. Looking
back at what occurred last night there were some locales that
actually fell a good 10 degrees cooler than forecasted. So given
the fact that this is a similar pattern and air mass that the
same thing should again occur tonight, with the coldest
temperatures occurring just before sunrise.
For tomorrow, given that downsloping winds dried out the area
more so than anticipated went with a blend of the Conshort and
5th percentile NBM for dew points. My confidence further
increased in the overall drier solutions as the Consshort was
hinting at some low single digit dew points making perhaps as
far as the KS/CO state line. Winds will be the tricky part as
overall low level flow is rather weak, but there will be the
potential for deep mixing. The question is how far south will
the deepest mixing take place and would it last long enough for
a further expansion of the Fire Weather Watch. The 00Z HRRR
thinks so, as it is aggressive with the mixing potential. Will
wait for some more of the 00Z guidance to come in to see if this
trend continues.
Monday, have also went and added in some patchy blowing dust
across Cheyenne county Colorado and SW portions of Kit Carson
county Colorado as blowing dust parameters are met given the
lapse rates but 1-2 knots below being met on the surface wind
speeds and the 0.5-1km wind speeds.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 505 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2024
The Red Flag Warning has expired on time as winds have come down
considerably due to the night time inversion setting up; RH
values will slowly rise through the evening as well as
temperatures cool. The Fire Weather Watch for Sunday afternoon
for Dundy, Hitchcock, Red Willow and Norton counties remain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 212 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2024
Across the region this afternoon, skies are sunny once again as a
great afternoon ensues area-wide. Temperatures as of 100 PM MST are
ranging in the 60s with warmest areas east of Highway 25. Winds are
westerly gusting to 15-25 mph at times. Humidity values are in the
lower to mid teens for much of the area.
For the short term portion of the forecast, the main wx concerns
continue to be focused on the threat for extreme dry conditions for
this time of year as a result of well above normal warmth, combining
with surface winds to create dangerous fire wx conditions.
Looking aloft, the latest RAP40 500mb analysis and mid-level water
vapor imagery are showing a broad amplified ridge over the Rockies
that models trend to zonal flow for Sunday into Monday.
At the surface, lee-side troughing over the Front Range will drift
slowly east along the KS/NE/CO border on Sunday and eventually south
of the CWA on Monday. This will allow for a W/SW flow to persist
over the region. This downslope direction will allow for temps to
continually show increased warmth for each daytime period, peaking
on Monday with record highs possible.
With area obs today already showing much of the CWA 15% or less RH,
expect fire wx concern to be problematic Sunday and Monday. Winds
will be the key to meet criteria as RH values each afternoon
expected in the single numbers/lower teens. Have gone ahead and
issued a Fire Wx Watch for SW Nebraska as well as Norton county in
Kansas for Sunday afternoon (18z-00z). This may get expanded on
later guidance. Another product will more than likely be needed on
Monday, but will await weekend products to clear first. Criteria on
Monday looks to be met for all locales along/west of Highway 27.
The positions of the low/trough on Monday, combined with 850/700mb
flow mixing down over western portions of the CWA, could bring gusts
close to the 40-50 mph mark, especially in Colorado. Will have to
monitor for blowing dust concerns as well during the afternoon
hours.
For temps, looking for highs on Sunday to range in the upper 60s to
mid 70s to end off the weekend. Going into Monday, well above normal
near record/record warmth still forecasted with a range in the mid
to upper 70s. A few locales will come close to the 80F mark.
Overnight lows tonight will range in the lower to mid 30s, Sunday
night in the upper 30s and for Monday night, a wide range with mid
to upper 30s in the northwest to the lower 40s in southeastern
locales.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2024
On Tuesday, a cold front is forecast to move through the area.
Models have been coming into better agreement on timing with the
latest GFS and ECMWF showing the front reaching our northern
counties by early to mid morning (~12-15Z) and through the area by
early to mid afternoon (~18-21Z). Based on expectation of FROPA
during the morning to early-mid afternoon, some hazards may be
limited both in coverage as well as impact, if they occur at all.
Regarding critical fire weather conditions and blowing dust
concerns, the focus area for these to develop (if they do) would be
across far southern portions of the area, generally along/south of
Hwy 40, where FROPA is later to arrive, allowing for conditions to
become warmer/drier as westerly downslope winds gust ~40-50+ mph.
Precipitation chances (~20-40%) also accompany the front.
Precipitation is expected to be mainly in the form of light snow as
temperatures quickly fall behind the front. Chances for snow are
greatest across northwestern portions of the area (portions of Yuma,
Kit Carson, Dundy, and Cheyenne (KS) counties). While accumulation
is currently expected to be minimal, if any, impacts from blowing
snow cannot be ruled out with northerly post-frontal winds gusting
~35-45 mph. High temperatures will occur early and have a wide range
across the area - currently forecast from 40s northwest to middle
60s far south. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the teens,
and with northerly winds still gusting to around 20-25 mph, will
have minimum wind chills drop into the low single digits above/below
zero Wednesday morning.
Eastward progression of the upper trough as we head into Wednesday
has upper level ridging building in to the west, giving us
northwesterly flow aloft backing towards the west. Afternoon highs
are expected to climb near normal, reaching the 40s under sunny
skies. West-southwest are forecast to gust to around 20-25 mph.
Overnight lows fall into the 20s.
As we close out the work week into the start of the weekend, broad
upper ridging is present with a few weak shortwaves moving through
the flow. The area will undergo a warming trend back to above to
well above normal, with 60s Thursday, middle 60s to near 70 Friday,
and middle 60s to middle 70s Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 20s to middle 30s Thursday night, 30s to near 40 Friday night,
and middle 30s to middle 40s Saturday night. Min RH drops into the
teens again for some, but winds currently look to remain below
threshold for critical fire weather conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 400 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2024
Winds will rapidly decline as the nightly inversion sets in just
before 00Z as winds fall to be 8 knots or less for the majority
of the night. KMCK will see breezy winds around 25 knots return
during the early afternoon whereas KGLD will remain around
08 knots for the duration of the period. Skies will remain clear
as dry air aloft continues.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2024
Several days of potential Near Critical to Critical Fire Wx
conditions are possible over portions of the region as above normal
temperatures will prevail:
Rest of Today...The area will continue to see a mix of lower to
mid teens for RH through sunset. A Red Flag Warning remains in
effect through 5 PM MST. The remainder of the area is expected
to see near critical fire weather conditions due to the low
humidity values.
Sunday...Downslope W/SW winds will allow for a more widespread
coverage of RH being in the upper single digits to lower teens.
Wind gusts will be lower compared to Saturday, with a range
closer to 15-25 mph. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for
southwest nebraska and Norton county in Kansas.
Monday...Mid to upper teens for RH are expected, as this is the
best day for well above normal (near record) temperatures.
Decent W/SW downslope is expected to continue, especially
along/west of Highway 25 could bring afternoon gusts into the
25-35 mph range. A localized 35-55 mph gust is possible in
western portions of the CWA, mainly along and west of a Yuma to
Goodland to Leoti. The current RH forecast might be lower in
the aforementioned area based on the strong downslope warming.
Stay tuned.
Tuesday...Cold frontal passage will bring some strong shifting
winds from W/SW to northerly by the afternoon hours. Gusts could
approach the 35-45 mph range. Any focus for fire wx concerns
will be south of the Interstate; however, RH values are
currently forecast to be in the upper 20s to mid 40s.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 201 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2024
HIGH MINIMUM Temperature Records for Monday, 2/26:
Goodland: 39F in 1986
McCook: 37F in 1995
Burlington: 40F in 1986
Hill City: 36F in 1946
Yuma: 38F in 1958
Also, Near Record to Record High Temperatures are possible on
Monday, February 26th. Here are the potential records with many
being within a couple degrees from current forecast:
Goodland KS..........71F in 1896
McCook NE............77F in 1995
Burlington CO........72F in 1995
Hill City KS.........80F in 1995+
Colby KS.............77F in 1995
Tribune KS...........77F in 1995
Yuma CO..............73F in 1950
A (+) denotes a record in multiple years
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for KSZ004.
CO...None.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
afternoon for NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...KMK
CLIMATE...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
835 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Performed a short-term update this evening, valid thru tomorrow
to bring in the latest guidance and match with obs trends. Seeing
quite the dewpoint spread from coastal SE LA to inland locations.
Recent mesoanalysis indicates the surface high to be generally
over the NW GOMEX, with a small plume of 45-55F dewpoints settled
in over nearshore coastal LA waters, starting to bulge inland
some. This will present a bit of a battle with temperatures,
between how far moisture advection can pull NE combined with ample
radiational cooling processes later given clear skies/calm winds.
Siding with current guidance that radiational cooling will win
over, with no major adjustments to overnight temperatures with
the 25th percentile from the Atchafalaya Basin north (emphasis on
drainage basins), but kept the warmer solution going for HUM to
MSY nearing deterministic NBM from this moisture plume lingering
around that`ll offset the radiational component some.
Otherwise, moisture advection relaxes some tomorrow which will
allow for strong diurnal mixing to win over causing a slow down of
the moistening albeit the building southerly flow component at
hand. Blended the HRRR and NBM for dewpoints as both have a good
handle on the mixing and highlights a drier solution compared to
others. Also temperatures look on track as well reaching the mid
to upper 70`s with no major adjustments needed. A pleasant Sunday
for sure so enjoy it as it can always be worse! KLG
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 218 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Tonight through Tuesday morning, ridging and high pressure will
build over the area, bringing drier conditions for the region for
the next few days. Tonight winds will transition still be
northerly and will transition to southerly throughout the morning
on Sunday. The northerly winds, calm wind speeds, and clear skies
will allow for pretty efficient radiational cooling Sunday
morning, especially for the Pearl River and Pascagoula River
drainage basins. Consequently, NBM was running a bit high for low
temperatures Sunday morning, mainly for areas north of I-10/I-12.
So, low temperatures north of I-12 were bumped down 2-3 degrees
for most areas. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the low 40s
for areas north of I-12 and in the low 50s for areas south of the
Lake and the river parishes.
Southerly surface winds will gradually advect
moisture and warm air into the region Sunday through Tuesday, a
little more efficiently/quickly than expected. Even today with
northerly to westerly winds, temperatures warmed up 2-3 degrees
more than forecast. So, the NBM high temperatures on Sunday were
running a little low for most areas except Baton Rouge when
compared to the general model guidance. Therefore, high
temperatures on Sunday were bumped up 2-3 degrees to be more in
line with the general model guidance. High temperatures on Sunday
are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s for most locations.
With clear skies persisting through Monday, wouldn`t be surprised
if high temperatures for Monday need to be adjusted in upcoming
forecast cycles. Overall, expect dry conditions for the next few
days with another cool morning tomorrow morning before we warm up
fairly rapidly Sunday through Tuesday. MSW
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday night)
Issued at 218 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
For Tuesday, mostly zonal flow will continue over the area with
slightly above average temperatures. Highs will be touching or over
80s. Uncertainty continues for past Tuesday as a trough moves across
the CONUS. The cold front with this system will push southward but
if it will make it through to south Louisiana/Mississippi is the big
question. Obviously the temperatures and precipitation amounts will
very much differ depending on the eventual evolution of this cold
front so left the NBM for right now. At least some rain is expected
but accumulating amounts may be confined to the northern part of the
CWA. Another shortwave passes the area late into the forecast around
Friday night which could also bring some precipitation as well, but
there is a lot of uncertainty of how strong it will be and how much
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Expect VFR conditions for all terminals thru the forecast period.
No impacts are anticipated, with winds becoming at or greater than
06kt mid/late morning thru the afternoon on Sunday, bearing mainly
from the south with SKC prevailing. KLG
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Generally, benign conditions are expected for the short and long
term forecast for the marine waters. Winds will remain northerly
and moderate (10-15kts) through Sunday as the frontal system
pushes through the eastern US. Sunday through Thursday, winds will
be southerly and moderate (10-15kts) as upper level ridging and
high pressure builds in over the area. MSW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 41 76 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 45 78 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 43 76 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 51 77 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 43 70 53 72 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 41 74 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KLG
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...MSW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
729 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2024
Radar returns have rapidly diminished, and the threat of
accumulating snow showers has diminished across the higher
elevations. A few flurries may linger this evening in the
mountains, but will update the forecast to end the winter weather
advisory early and bump the PoPs below 15%. Will also tweak sky,
temps, and dew points to better fit latest trends with this
update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2024
Key Messages:
1. Mountain snow showers continue until this evening. Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect.
2. Colder tonight, lows around 5 degrees below normal.
3. Warmer and dry tomorrow. Highs around 5 degrees above normal.
Snow showers are ongoing at the current hour across the higher
elevations of the east TN and VA mountains. The Winter Weather
Advisory will remain in effect as additional accumulations are
possible through this evening before snow showers taper off. The
latest runs of the RAP and HRRR show the bulk of the precip
finishing by 00Z. It`s likely that the Winter Weather Advisory will
be cancelled earlier than the current expiration time of 06Z.
Otherwise, expect gradually clearing skies overnight as drier air
builds into the region. Colder tonight with lows around 5 degrees
below normal.
High pressure in place tomorrow with highs around 5 degrees above
normal. Unfortunately it looks like there will be some clouds around
as some mid level moisture moves across the area. Min RH values will
be on the lower side tomorrow afternoon but winds shouldn`t be too
much of a concern.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2024
Key Messages:
1. Southwesterly return flow will increase temperatures considerably
through mid-week as well as moisture.
2. A dynamic system will affect the area mid-week, bringing strong
winds by Tuesday, mainly in the mountains, followed by showers and
storms on Wednesday, some of which could be strong to severe.
Confidence is still limited on the exact impacts.
3. Cooler and drier conditions are expected by Thursday, followed by
southerly flow and increasing rain chances by Friday.
An active long term is on tap with not much in the way of quiet or
dry weather to start, except late Sunday into much of Monday.
Ridging as well as high pressure at the surface will strengthen
across the SE US at this time. Monday may stay dry for most, but
there is a slight chance of showers and increased cloud cover across
the northern parts of the forecast area from a weak trailing front
traversing southern Canada.
Monday is when first signs of our anticipated system of the long
term period will show with a digging trough over the PNW. Meanwhile
over us, southerly low-level moist air will be funneling in thanks
to strengthening surface high pressure over the SE and western
Atlantic. As a result, valley temperatures will approach lower 70s
Monday through Wednesday. Not to mention, fire weather concerns will
diminish with afternoon low RH`s exceeding 50% Tuesday and
Wednesday.
Attention then turns to Wednesday as the aforementioned deep trough
swings southeastward across the country. In response, a low pressure
center will develop over southwestern Canada, moving to the Upper
Plains before further deepening and track towards the Great Lakes.
This could end up being a pretty strong low center of sub-990mb that
will lift northward into Ontario. Before the front arrives, precip
chances do increase ahead of it on Tuesday when a warm front lifts
northward. Winds can be expected to increase as well out of the
southwest aloft and southerly at the surface which will bear
watching for potential enhancement of mountainwave winds. Increasing
MSLP late Monday into Tuesday will increase winds much earlier for
the Plateau and Appalachians. Once the >150kt jet edges closer, low-
level flow will likely exceed 50kts over us, which will bring
areawide gusty SW winds across the CWA Wednesday afternoon.
Uncertainty still remains on timing of the actual line of precip
moving through and what that may mean for us as far as any severe
weather potential. Just like 24 hours ago, the EC is adamant on the
trough and front to be well east of the area compared to other
operational model runs. As of this morning, the SPC still keeps 15%
chance of severe weather in their outlook on day 5, but it has been
shaved west a bit. Still a fluid situation where this will keep
changing.
Another element that will depend on the final movement of the front
will be any snowfall potential on the backside. Once temperatures
fall due to CAA and a shift in northwesterly flow heading into
Thursday, will moisture still be present? Strong high pressure of
greater than 1030 mb is forecast to move in quickly behind this
system, providing a brief break in weather for much of the day
Thursday. Without saying, temperatures much cooler.
Temperatures expected to warm again for the weekend, but wet weather
may stick around as troughing behind the ridge and low pressure
development over the Gulf and/or near Florida sends moisture
northward. Model consensus on this is all over as far as where the
ridge and high pressure will be located come the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2024.
Low VFR/MVFR cigs at TRI to start, but clouds will scatter out
tonight and the remainder of the period will be VFR. VFR
conditions expected for the entire period TYS and CHA. Winds will
decrease and become light overnight, then become southwest less
than 10 kts Sunday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 63 45 71 / 0 10 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 59 44 69 / 0 10 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 27 58 43 68 / 0 10 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 54 38 65 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....KS
AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
131 PM PST Sat Feb 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure over the Southwest will continue to bringer
warm and dry weather through the weekend. An area of low pressure
off the coast will move closer to SoCal by Monday and Tuesday,
which will bring light showers and gusty winds for inland areas.
Another mostly dry period will occur later in the work week.
Another large area of low pressure off the West Coast will bring
the chance for cool, breezy, and wetter weather sometime next
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (Through Tuesday)...
A 545mb low pressure system churning west of our area continues to
lift subtropical moisture into the region today in the form of
high clouds. Northern areas have the best chance to see the most
sunshine today with more intermittent clearing, boosting
temptress in the mid 70s for the valleys and upper 60s across the
high desert. Low clouds and fog are possible within ten miles of
the coastline tonight with low confidence, depending on the
location of the high clouds tonight, where greater high clouds
coverage would have a better chance of inhibiting fog formation.
There is a 30-40% chance of fog forming where visibility would
lower under 1/2 mile, so travel with care late tonight into Sunday
morning.
Closed lows are often tricky, so our friend off the coast will
eventually slide its way east by Monday. Showers will begin around
early afternoon or evening on Monday, lasting through Tuesday.
Trends continue to show these totals going downward, though most
areas along and west of the mountains will receive at least one
tenth to near one quarter of an inch of rainfall. Uncertainty in
totals still remains, with minimal precip from WRF vs. a bit
heavier with the latest HRRR run. Snow levels will high yet
again, starting near 7000-8000 feet and then lower near 6,500
Tuesday morning, where under one inch of snow is expected for
areas below 7,000 feet. Overall, not a very impactful event, but
do drive carefully on the wet and icy roadways.
The biggest impact with this system will be the winds. Southerly
winds across the San Bern desert slopes will increase tomorrow,
spreading to all desert slope areas by Sunday night. As the system
moves closer on Monday, stronger upper level winds will approach
the area. This will bring gusty winds from the mountains down into
the deserts by Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. The
highest winds will be Monday afternoon and overnight. Population
centers along the 15 in the High Desert have a 60% chance of
seeing winds over 30 MPH and 60% chance of winds over 40 MPH
through the San Gorgonio Pass. Please travel with care and secure
any property!
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday into Next Weekend)...
As the weather system passes through our area on Wednesday, a
large trough of low pressure off the coast of the Pacific
Northwest will push further southward through the latter half of
next week. This may generate pulses of upper level energy to
provide light showers to some of our mountain areas into
Wednesday. Otherwise, dry weather will remain for SoCal Wednesday
and Thursday. The system will push further south by Friday,
bringing more cooling and breezy conditions. Timing and amounts of
precipitation for this system are of course still very uncertain,
but NBM POPs look good for now to enter the picture later on
Friday into the weekend. This will continue to change over the
coming days, so please continue to monitor the forecast for the
latest weather information.
&&
.AVIATION...
242130Z...BKN-OVC high clouds 20000-25000 feet today until late
tonight. After 25/13Z low clouds 400-600 ft MSL with tops near 1000
ft MSL developing over the coastal waters and moving onshore. Low
clouds extending inland to just east of KONT and KRNM. Local vis
below 3SM in fog. Low clouds clearing around 25/18z. Low confidence
on timing and coverage of the KSAN low clouds after 25/10z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Patchy fog with visibility locally 1 nm or less. Fog is not expected
to be widespread, but mariners should exercise caution nonetheless.
Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions through Monday.
A weakening Pacific trough will bring a chance of showers Monday
afternoon through Tuesday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...Small