Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/17/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
938 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering snow showers will continue across the mountains this
evening before tapering off around midnight. However, additional
widespread light snow will redevelop by Saturday morning across
the North Country with a dusting to 2 inches possible. On and
off snow showers taper off on Saturday night, before another
clipper like system produces more snow showers on Sunday into
Sunday night. Temperatures will remain in the 20s for highs and
teens for lows over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 936 PM EST Friday...As expected, snow showers has rapidly
been tapering off over the past few hours. Some light snow
showers are likely to continue through midnight across the high
peaks of the Green Mountains but little new accumulation is
expected at this time. The next round of snow still looks to be
on track around daybreak on Saturday with a few inches of snow
possible, especially across southern Vermont.
Previous Discussion...Interesting aftn acrs the fcst area as
upslope snow showers continue along the western slopes and parts
of the northern Dacks. The flow has become unblocked and
convective in nature, especially the returns over northern NY,
while a small area of concentrated returns prevail from Richmond
to Nashville to Underhill to Montgomery and just downstream of
the spine. Expect this activity to prevail for several more
hours as cyclonic west/northwest flow continues, along with
modest low level caa. However, deeper layer moisture per
sounding data starts to wane by 00z, with less areal coverage
anticipated this evening. However, good news next system for Sat
morning has trended further north with additional light snow
now likely on Sat. Water vapor shows potent 5h s/w energy with
cooling cloud tops on the IR quickly angling sw to ne toward the
Mid Atlantic/SNE. Both the 12z and 18z NAM/HRRR and 15Z RAP
have all trended further north and based on satellite
presentation this looks reasonable. Expecting light snow to
develop by 09z Sat and quickly expand northward toward the
International Border by 12z. Sounding profiles support good
flake production, so anticipating big flake size, which could
produce a dusting to an inch or two acrs the region on Saturday.
Best potential wl be the High Peaks into the mtns of
central/southern VT btwn 09z-18z Saturday. Have increased pops
to likely and if trends continue would not be surprised if cat
pops are needed for a period of time on Sat, especially mtns. On
Sat aftn our llvl flow becomes northerly, especially here in
the CPV and would not be surprised if BTV and the western
slopes/mtns see additional snow shower activity with a light
accumulation possible. Supporting this thinking is deepening
northern stream mid lvl trof and favorable moisture. Soundings
show good moisture thru 600mb, along with steepening sfc to
750mb lapse rates, supporting the idea of additional aftn snow
showers on Sat. Weak short/wave ridge builds into the area on
Sat night with a brief break in snow shower activity, before
next clipper arrives by 12z Sun. Have increasing pops toward
likley by 12z Sunday acrs the western cwa. Bottom line expect
intervals or periods of light snow or snow showers over the next
12 to 36 hours with several inches of snow accumulation likely,
especially the mtns. Temps in the teens today, warm into the
20s for Sat and fall back into the teens on Saturday night with
some single digits possible in colder valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 411 PM EST Friday...A clipper will pass through Sunday
into Sunday night, bringing another round of snow. The first
part will be Sunday morning with a period of light snow. Behind
that, it looks there may be a break in the snow for much of the
region until late afternoon. The exception will be parts of
northern New York where southwest flow will favor some lake
enhanced snow showers during the day. A heavier band of snow
will move through during the evening and into the overnight.
There will be relatively high CAPE and decent frontogenesis so
there is the potential for snow squalls. However, the more
organized snow showers will come through after dark so that will
help lessen the instability. This will likely lead to heavier
snow showers with a few embedded squalls. The heavier round of
snow will fall apart as it moves south so southern Vermont
should be limited to a few lighter snow showers. Downsloping
winds will also limit totals in the Champlain Valley. The higher
snow totals will be across northern New York and the upslope
areas of the Greens where 1-3 inches will fall. There will be
locally higher amounts in St. lawrence County where there is
lake enhancement. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 20s to low
30s and lows Sunday night will be in the upper single digits to
upper teens. However winds will gust in the 15-25 mph range
which will generally cause wind chills to be 5-15 degrees below
the temperature.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 411 PM EST Friday...Any lingering snow showers over the
higher terrain/upslope areas will end quickly Monday morning as
high pressure builds in from the northwest. Clouds will begin to
break during the day and skies should go mostly clear
overnight. Winds will go mostly calm overnight so efficient
radiational cooling should cause lows Monday night to be the
coldest of the week. Lows will be in the single digits and teens
for most areas but the coldest hollows will likely see
temperatures to drop around zero. Therefore, blended a little
MOS guidance into the forecast. The high moves off to the east
quickly Monday night so a southwesterly return flow may develop
later in the night and minimize some of the radiational cooling.
A warming trend will begin on Tuesday and continue through mid
week with temperatures looking to be 10 or more degrees above
normal for Wednesday and Thursday. A shortwave will move through
on Friday and a low will develop along it. Right now, model
guidance suggests the low will develop to the south of the the
region so put in a mix of rain/ snow to snow for the region.
However, temperatures will be marginal for snow as the cold air
will not fully arrive until after the storm.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Widespread shower activity has become more
scattered and focused on upslope areas of the northern and
central Green Mtns. A few showers will be possible at MPV/EFK,
with will be more miss than hit overnight. The caveat is where
standing mountain waves have formed. These could shift a little
if mean 925-850mb layer winds shift. For now, EFK/MPV are in the
clearer air of the trough of mountain wave activity. With
mountain waves evident, expect some mechanical turbulence
around 025-065 MSL. Elsewhere should be mainly VFR with SLK
possibly seeing some MVFR CIGs as flow remains westerly and
upslope. 09-17Z a wave will be moving through causing showers to
blossom again with lingering activity likely in the Greens.
Lapse rates are steep enough to support snow pellets as well as
additional rounds of snow showers through the remainder of the
period.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Washingtons Birthday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Clay/Taber
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Boyd
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
717 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 60% chance of winds gusting 45 MPH or greater in eastern North
Dakota, highest chances in the Devils Lake Basin.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024
Pockets of slow to mid level stratus are moving through the
region beneath the high cirrus creating variable sky cover.
Under some of the stratus across northeast ND and northwest MN
there have been reports of flurries (no impacts). RAP
indicated that drier air advecting int with the west-northwest
BL flow should eventually help end any flurries and lower
stratus later tonight. I added a mention of flurries and
adjusted sky cover to better capture these trends.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024
Satellite showing mid to upper level clouds streaming in from Canada
this afternoon. Synoptically, after a surface low pushes SE across
southern Canada, clusters show an upper level ridge will build in to
our west. This ridge will be in place and propagate east into the
beginning of the work week, but will lessen in intensity, resulting
in more zonal flow over the Dakotas into mid-week next week.
Temperatures will be warmer than average because of this ridge into
mid week next week.
This weekend, as the surface low descends into southern Canada, the
pressure gradient over eastern North Dakota and northwestern
Minnesota will tighten. This will bring increased wind speeds to the
area, with highest winds being west of the Red River Valley. Wind
gusts of 45 MPH or higher have a 60% probability of occurring
Saturday, with highest chances being in the Devils Lake Basin. Other
locations west of the Red River will see wind gusts greater than 30
MPH throughout the day Saturday. This will cause difficulty driving
high profile vehicles and could blow around unsecured objects.
As the trough over the Great Lakes propagates east, ridging from the
west will build in over the forecast area. This will lead to well
above average temperatures Sunday and Monday. Ridging will begin to
break down on Tuesday as the upper level flow becomes more zonal,
then northwesterly. Embedded within this flow, models try to resolve
a shortwave. The placement, timing and strength of this wave are all
in question. Due to the small nature of the wave and the ensemble
variability, details surrounding this wave remain highly uncertain.
Behind the shortwave, cooler air will filter in for Wednesday and
beyond.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024
VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN, with a period of 3500-6000 FT AGL
stratus (VFR) moving through the region this evening
transitioning to high cirrus. Surface gradient is increasing
between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the
southwest and west-northwest winds will tend to remain near 12kt
or higher through the night, with higher winds and gusts
25-40kt during the daytime period Saturday (highest gusts in
eastern ND towards KDVL).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for NDZ006-007-
014-015-024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...DJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
910 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A quick hitting winter weather system will bring a bout of
accumulating snow to the northern two thirds of the area late
this afternoon into early Saturday morning.
- The highest confidence for more than an inch of snow exists
generally along and north of the Mountain Parkway.
- A thunderstorm will be possible this evening ahead of the snow
in western portions of the Cumberland Valley.
- Temperatures will be near normal today, and then fall to about
15 degrees below normal on Saturday. Temperatures then moderate,
Sunday before returning to above normal through the middle of
next week.
- After precipitation free weather to end the weekend and start
next week, unsettled weather is likely during the second half of
next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2024
Rain/snow line, roughly situated along a Mountain Vernon to
Jackson to Paintsville line at 9 PM, continues to drop southeast
this evening. After the transition over to snow, expect snow to
become moderate to briefly heavy. An inch of snowfall was
reported earlier this evening in Bath County in less than 30
minutes. There is a brief southwest- to northeast-oriented lull
in the snowfall from Lincoln County to Carter County. Behind that
lull there is a trailing band of moderate to briefly heavy snow
extending from northern Fleming County southwestward into Central
Kentucky. This activity will continue to sink southeastward
through this evening. Once the trailing band passes a given
location, expect just some lingering flurries. At this point,
expect the trailing band of snow to clear the I-64 corridor
between 10 to 11 PM, The Hal Rogers Parkway and KY-80 corridor
between midnight and 1 AM, and the Virginia border counties by 2
AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2024
As of the 18Z surface analysis, a surface low is ejecting out of Mid-
Mississippi Valley toward the area. Showers associated with the warm
front are tracking the CWA with light radar returns showing up in
Central Kentucky. Those showers will increase in coverage over the
next several hours with the approach of the the surface low.
A 150 kt jetstreak will work through the upper-level flow over the
Tennessee Valley this afternoon through Saturday morning. At the
surface, a low is forecast to track out of the Mid-Mississippi
Valley into the Commonwealth. CAMs and deterministic models continue
to remain in relative agreement on the track of the low as it comes
out of the Plains and through the Tennessee Valley. This morning and
early afternoon`s model suites continue to agree that this low will
continue to eject through the Commonwealth this afternoon through
the overnight. Hi-res CAM guidance is still iffy on the thermodynamic
column of the system. The HRRR has backed off on the overall
snowfall amounts with the system and has trended toward a wintry
mix. The RAP, NAM are slightly colder and handle the transition to
snow quicker. The ECMWF and GFS are also on a similar trend as the
RAP and NAM; therefore, opted to lean toward that guidance for the
forecast. Also, forecast QPF has increased across the region with
temperatures not warming as high as expected. Therefore, the
forecast solution provided has upped snowfall totals across the
region. Now forecast snowfall has climbed to around 3 inches along
and north of the 1-64 corridor with the remaining areas (areas in
the advisory) seeing a little more than an inch and areas along and
south of the Hal Rogers Parkway seeing a dusting to light
accumulations on elevated surfaces. However, did issue an SPS for
the areas not under an advisory to highlight the risk for slick
spots, especially on bridges and overpasses.
Once the system quickly exits the region, high pressure builds into
the region. However, lingering backside snow flurries will be
possible through Saturday afternoon. Those will taper off and skies
will clear; with clearing skies, temperatures will begin to fall.
Highs today may climb a few more degrees but with the approach of
the low and evaporative cooling; the high has been reached for most
places across the CWA. Overnight lows will fall into the mid-20s
with very little recovery for Saturday highs. Clear skies Saturday
night will allow for overnight lows to fall into the mid to upper-
teens across the region.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 430 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2024
The period is expected to begin with an an upper level trough over
eastern Canada to the mid Atlantic states and a shortwave trough
over the Arklatex to the western Gulf of Mexico with the axis of
this trough shifting east of eastern KY as the period begins.
Shortwave ridging is progged at that point from the eastern
Pacific into the Four Corners to MT area with troughing over
parts of the eastern Pacific and a shortwave trough in advance of
it working across parts of the Northwest Conus to CA. At the
surface, a ridge of high pressure is expected to be in place from
the Southern Plains into the southeastern Conus.
Sunday through Tuesday, the axis of the trough is expected to
shift further south and east of eastern KY Sunday into Monday with
a period of heights at 500 mb generally rising into Monday.
The next shortwave trough in the flow will have moved across the
western Conus to end the weekend and is expected to reach the
Plains on Monday. The axis of upper ridging should move
east of eastern KY and the Commonwealth on Monday night to early on
Tuesday with the shortwave tracking from the Plains on Monday to
the MS Valley and into the OH and TN Valley regions by late Monday
night and across the region on Tuesday. Meanwhile, at the
surface, high pressure is expected to shift east into the
Southeastern Conus to Southern Appalachians and generally
remaining in place through Tuesday.
Tuesday night to Wednesday night, a shortwave trough will move
east of the area with shortwave upper level ridging working east
and into the eastern Conus at midweek. The pattern is expected to
transition to a trough developing south from Canada and in e
Central to eastern Conus to end the period. Models vary from run
to run and model to model in the details in the development and
timing of this evolution of this trough. As this occurs the ridge
of sfc high pressure will depart to the south and east and sfc low
pressure is expected to track from the Plains and into the eastern
Conus. This will likely be followed by a cold front late in the
period.
A cold airmass to begin the weekend, should see temperatures
moderate toward the 0 to -5C range at 850 mb for Sunday and above
0C at 850 for Monday. This will lead to a warmup in highs
climbing to about 5 degrees below normal for Sunday and a few
degrees above normal for Monday. A further moderation in
temperatures is expected through midweek with greatest departures
on the order of 10F or more above normal for highs Wednesday and
Thursday. Recent NBM guidance has probabilities of highs of 60
degrees or higher in the 40 to 80 percent range for both Wednesday
and Thursday for all of the area except the higher elevations
above 2500 feet. There is even a chance temperatures could warm
higher than currently forecast, with probabilities of highs 65 or
higher in the 10 to 50 percent range for both Wednesday and
Thursday. Temperatures should cool back to near normal ir not a
bit below normal to end the period as the trough develops. Ridge/
valley temperature splits are probable with high pressure
dominating for Sun night to Mon night. Temperatures for valleys
have been cooled well below NBM deterministic values, while
coalfield ridgetop locations have been warmed closer to MOS
values for both nights.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2024
Terminals across the area are fluctuating between VFR and MVFR;
however, as this system continues to approach the area, terminals
will begin to fall into categorical IFR/LIFR. Along with the
approach of the system, increasing rain showers are expected with
rain changing over to snow within the next couple of hours. Snow
showers will then linger through 06Z before tapering off from west
to east. Also, northeasterly winds shifting the the northwest are
expected overnight with a few gusts upward of 15 knots. As showers
taper off overnight, lingering low clouds will stick around
through the morning before MVFR CIGS arrive around 16Z. Terminals
will slowly improve to VFR after 18Z/Saturday. Northwest winds
are expected to increased again Saturday afternoon before
dissipating toward the end of the TAF period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...VORST
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
919 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will quickly move across the Mid-Atlantic and then
out to sea through Saturday morning. High pressure then builds
closer to our Sunday into Monday. A weak cold front may settle
into our area Monday into Tuesday, then high pressure build in
on Wednesday. An area of low pressure may arrive Thursday night
or Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A surface low is forecast to track across the southern Appalachians
tonight and off the coast of the Delmarva by Saturday morning. The
system remains accompanied by plentiful of energy aloft with sufficient
moisture through the atmospheric column. Cold air remains in place
so temps will be below freezing across majority of the forecast area
as the storm track remains to our south. Still, the exception is
across extreme southern NJ and southern DE where some mixing is likely
to occur for portions of the night. Nonetheless, atmospheric profiles
continue to support a widespread snowfall event. The previously advertised
onset times look good with western areas starting shortly 10/11PM
and then spreading east into NJ by midnight. The airmass remains
quite dry but as seen with upstream obs, the vsbys decrease
quickly once the snow arrives.
We haven`t made any drastic changes with the evening update. A
few of the latest HRRR runs are showing some lower overall totals
with the higher totals migrating north towards RDG/ABE/TTN. It
still appears that a widespread 0.25-0.40" of liquid precipitation,
where the lesser values will be far north and the greater values
will be to the central areas. Snow-to-liquid ratios (SLRs) will
generally be in the 9:1-12:1 range across portions of the Delmarva
and Cape May County with SLRs in the 12:1-16:1 range across SE
PA and NJ. There will also be a fairly deep dendritic growth zone
basis forecast soundings overnight, which will support the higher
snowfall rates. In addition, most of the available CAM guidance
depicts one or two f-gen bands developing overnight...roughly
in the 2AM-6AM timeframe. In these bands, HREF/HRRR/NAM guidance
supports that snowfall rates will average close to 1.0"/hr, possibly
greater. With this being said...there will be periods of moderate
to heavy snow tonight, depending on exactly where these bands setup.
Right now the general thinking is across the northern DE, southwest
NJ and southeast PA; including the Philadelphia metro.
We will keep the ongoing WSW flags `as is` with Winter Storm
Warnings for accumulations of 4-6 inches for the following counties:
New Castle in DE; Chester, Delaware, lower Montgomery, lower
Bucks, and Philadelphia in PA; and Salem, Gloucester, Camden,
and northern Burlington in NJ. Elsewhere, Winter Weather
Advisories remain in place while also adding both Sussex (NJ)
and Morris into the advisories. In the advisory areas, snowfall
accumulations will generally range from 1-4 inches, possibly up
to 5 inches where needed warning criteria is greater. All winter
headlines are in effect from 10 PM tonight until 10 AM Saturday.
The heaviest of snow will exit quickly off the coast around or after
daybreak Saturday. Some residual snow showers may linger into
the late morning hours as the system departs, but most of the
accumulation will have occurred by that time. A few snow showers
or possibly even some squalls off the Great Lakes may make
their way into the southern Poconos and northern NJ as shortwave
energy aloft crosses the area. Further accumulations will be
rather minimal, but may cause some additional hazardous travel.
Otherwise, the rest of the area will encounter partial clearing
through the afternoon. Gusty winds will increase as the system
departs up to 25-30 mph but will remain below headline criteria.
Highs on Saturday will be in the low 30s to near 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level trough is forecast to gradually retreat northward,
more and more away from the Mid-Atlantic region into Monday. Any
snow shower or flurries mainly across the northwestern areas should
quickly dissipate to start Saturday evening. A potentially strong
shortwave trough then in the Central Plains Monday should start to
slide mainly to our south as we go into Monday night. As the
aforementioned trough retreats northward, surface low pressure will
go with it however an associated weak cold front should settle
through our area into Monday. Surface high pressure then builds over
our area during Monday. Moisture and forcing look rather
limited/weak with the frontal passage and therefore maintained a dry
forecast.
It will be cold Saturday night with a mostly clear sky, diminishing
wind and low dew points. All areas are forecast to drop into the low
to mid 20s with even mid to upper teens. Some gradual warming is
then forecast through Monday. High temperatures are currently
forecast to be at or a few degrees below average.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Summary...Turning milder overall with precipitation chances
returning Thursday night and Friday. Some potential for a stronger
storm Friday, however there is a lot uncertainty.
Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough shifts around between
central to eastern Canada Tuesday, then this trough is forecast to
amplify south and eastward some Wednesday through Friday. A cold
front in our vicinity may tend to dissipate Tuesday. An area of low
pressure organizes across the Plains and shifts eastward and may
then arrive in our area late Thursday and Friday. The main upper-
level trough may then amplify more Friday, and there is some model
guidance that shows a strong surface low tracking near or just off
of our coast Friday. This scenario is highly uncertain this far out
in time.
For Tuesday and Wednesday...A surface front across or south of our
area may tend to dissipate on Tuesday. Despite the front that
arrived, the air mass does not look to be really cooling and
therefore temperatures should be inching their way upward, with
forecast high temperatures above average. The main upper-level
trough in Central Canada is forecast to start amplifying south and
eastward some Wednesday, and a cold front will be at the leading
edge of this. It still appears that lingering surface high pressure
will be wedged across our area and therefore keeping our region dry.
For Thursday and Friday...The evolution of the upper-level flow is
forecast to undergo some amplification with time. A lead shortwave
may support a separate trough or closed low sliding off the
Southeast U.S. coast. Meanwhile, stronger shortwave energy diving
southeastward across the northern tier of states and result in the
Canadian upper-level trough amplifying southward and eastward with
time. This should also support surface low development in the Plains
along a front. This all shifts eastward and starts to arrive in our
area, however the timing is less certain as it will depend on the
strength of the surface low and associated trough. Increasing warm
air advection ahead of this system should translate to milder
temperatures with the warmest day looking to be Thursday, then some
cooling may take place Friday as the next system affects our area.
As of now, the air mass looks mild enough for mainly rain as the
precipitation type. This is however all highly dependent on the
positioning, timing and strength of the trough an associated surface
low. As of now, slight chance to low end chance PoPs (20-30 percent)
are in the forecast for much of the area Thursday, then these
increase into the chance range (30-50 percent) for the entire area
Thursday night and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...VFR early, will gradually step down to MVFR conditions
between 03-06z as light snow develops across the area. As the
heavier snow moves in between 06-07z to 10-11z from west to
east, periods of moderate snow are possible where ceilings will
lower down to IFR. Light NE-E winds around 5 kt or less becoming
variable at times. Moderate confidence, but lower confidence
regarding ceilings/vsbys.
Saturday...IFR early will improve to MVFR by late morning. Potential
for VFR late in the day as partial clearing occurs. W-NW winds
around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday night...VFR. West-northwest winds diminishing to 5-10
knots, becoming west-southwest. Moderate confidence.
Sunday...VFR. West-southwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 25
knots, diminishing some at night. Moderate confidence.
Monday...VFR. Northwest winds around 10 knots, diminishing at
night. Moderate confidence.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR. Southeasterly winds 5-10 knots.
Moderate confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
A new SCA flag has been issued for the increasing winds and
seas following the departing storm Saturday.
For tonight, no marine headlines will be needed. Periods of
light to moderate snow is likely. Winds will diminish through
the first part of the night with NE-E wins around 10-15 kt.
Possible gusts up to 20 kt south of Great Egg Harbor Inlet. Seas
of 2-3 feet.
For Saturday, residual snow showers possible. N to NW winds
around 10-20 kt in the morning will become W/NW around 15-20 kt
with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. SCA flags issued.
Outlook...
Saturday night and Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions
continuing. Fair.
Monday through Wednesday...The conditions are anticipated to be
below Small Craft Advisory criteria (25 knots/5 feet).
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ070-071-
101-102-104-106.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ054-
055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for NJZ016>019.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NJZ001-
007>010-012>015-020>027.
DE...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for DEZ001.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for DEZ002-
003.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for MDZ012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 AM EST Monday for
ANZ430-450>452.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to midnight EST Sunday
night for ANZ431-453>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/PO
SHORT TERM...Gorse
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...DeSilva/Gorse/PO
MARINE...DeSilva/Gorse/PO