Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/13/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1032 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stronger area of low pressure and its cold front cross the
region tonight into Tuesday morning, bringing another period of
rain to the area. Gusty winds are expected behind this system
on Tuesday, especially for areas along the coast. High pressure
returns Tuesday night into Wednesday, with drier weather
expected for the remainder of the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1030 PM EST Monday...
Key Messages:
- Rain becomes more widespread overnight. Locally heavy rain is
possible. A few thunderstorms are possible in southeastern
Virginia and northeast North Carolina late tonight.
-West to southwest winds could gust as high as 40 mph across
southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina by sunrise.
Evening wx analysis shows a warm front across the Carolinas,
with deepening sfc low pressure tracking ENE near the VA/TN/NC
border. The associated upper low lags to the W over the KY/TN
border. Low clouds, light rain, and drizzle continue over
central/srn VA, with dry wx but overcast skies over most of the
ern shore. Areas of fog have developed across central/s-central
VA into Northampton County, NC and have covered this with an SPS
for now. Temperatures are in the mid 40s to around 50F with an
ENE wind. The upper low/trough will eject ENE toward the central
Appalachians tonight, pushing over the local area Tuesday
morning. The attendant sfc low is still progged to deepen as it
tracks NE through the Appalachians and eventually VA tonight.
The rain gradually spreads to the NE late this evening into the
overnight hours and increases in intensity. Precipitation will
continue through at least early Tue AM. Temperatures should
climb into the mid/upper 50s overnight over Hampton Roads and
NE NC as the surface low approaches and the warm sector is
briefly lifted NE across the coastal plain (but the warm sector
has shifted S with the latest data). As this happens some weak
instability (mainly elevated) will also make its way over SE
VA/NE NC, and as such a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled
out (mainly after midnight). There is a very low but non- zero
chc of isolated damaging wind gusts with the strongest cells in
NE NC late tonight (between 1- 6 AM) where SPC has maintained
the MRGL Risk for severe wx. More importantly, any convective
elements could briefly enhance lift and result in locally heavy
rainfall. As a result, localized flooding of urban/poor drainage
areas is possible, especially considering the rain we received
yesterday and early this morning. WPC has continued with a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across the southern half of
the area. Expect widespread rainfall totals of 0.25-0.5" SW to
0.5-0.75" NE from this afternoon through Tuesday morning (w/
locally higher amounts). The rain should end across the southern
half of the area by 5 or 6 AM. As this happens and the low
passes by, winds become SW then W and could gust to 30-40 mph
across SE VA/NE NC by sunrise (note that the strongest winds
will occur between 8 AM-2 PM on Tuesday). While temperatures
rise over the southeast as previously mentioned, early morning
lows mainly hold in the 40s-lower 50s across the N/NW half of
the FA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Monday...
Key Messages:
- Wind Advisories have been issued for southeast Virginia, northeast
North Carolina, and part of the eastern shore. Wind gusts of 40-50
mph are expected near the coast on Tuesday, with gusts up to 40 mph
inland. The strongest winds will occur between 8 AM and 2 PM on
Tuesday.
- Rain tapers off Tuesday morning, with gradual clearing into
Tuesday evening.
-Seasonably cool weather is expected during the middle of the
week with much less wind.
Rain tapers off across the eastern half of the area on Tuesday
morning through early afternoon, as the low quickly ejects NE
offshore and lifts toward coastal New England. Any accumulating
wintry pcpn most likely remains to our north, although some of
the guidance from earlier today (12z ECMWF, 18z HRRR, and some
12z EPS members), along with the 00z/13 HRRR and 3km NAM show
the potential for a period wet snow from Salisbury to Cambridge
Tuesday morning. This guidance shows some light accumulation,
but it will be difficult to get any accum as surface temps will
struggle to get below 36F. The sfc low deepens to <980mb as it
tracks offshore and moves away from the region. This will bring
thinning clouds and eventually some clearing. Winds are expected
to shift to the W Tue AM, eventually becoming NW by aftn. The
tightening pressure gradient between the deepening low to the NE
and high pressure rebuilding to the SW will allow for 40-50 mph
wind gusts near the coast by mid/late morning (up to 40 mph
inland). These strong gusts will continue through much of the
day before subsiding during the late aftn- evening (although
breezy conditions will persist near the coast through the
night). As such, a Wind Advisory has been issued for NE NC,
Hampton Roads, and part of the eastern shore. The advisory runs
from 6 AM to 4 PM on Tuesday, although the strongest winds will
most likely occur between 8 AM-2 PM.
Winds gradually diminish Tue night as high pressure builds over the
region, with the high settling over the region on
Wednesday/Wednesday night before becoming suppressed to our SE on
Thu as another cold front approaches from the NW. Temperatures
continue to fall over eastern portions of the area through late Tue
AM but highs will rebound to near seasonal averages by late aftn in
most areas. It will turn a bit cooler for Wed before warming back up
a bit on Thu (with some increase in cloud cover...especially N). Wed
night will be the coldest night of the period with widespread mid-
upper 20s in the forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Monday...
Another cold front crosses the area Thursday night as a moisture-
starved shortwave tracks to our north. No precipitation is expected
with this feature. Zonal flow sets up for Friday with temps
potentially rising into the 60s across parts of the area. Our next
chance for precipitation is this weekend as broad troughiness sets
up over the ern CONUS. At this time it does not look like any major
impacts will occur with this system and p-type should mainly be
rain. However, a bit of snow cannot be ruled out. Dry/cooler on Mon
as a southern stream low pressure system likely remains well to our
south.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 655 PM EST Monday...
Low pressure is centered over the southern Appalachians as of
00z, with a warm front extending to the NE into southern VA.
Widespread LIFR/IFR cigs prevail for most of the region, with
locally MVFR cigs at SBY. Vsby is generally 3/4-4sm in light
rain, drizzle, and mist where LIFR/IFR cigs are occurring. The
wind is primarily E at 5-8kt. Steady rain will gradually spread
NE this this evening and become moderate to heavy as CIGs fall
to LIFR at all of the terminals (IFR reaching SBY ~03z), as
strengthening low pressure approaches the region. LIFR
conditions with moderate to locally heavy rain, and areas of
fog near the warm front will continue through much of the night
with an easterly wind. The wind veers to the SSW (and becomes
gusty to 25 kt) late tonight at PHF/ORF/ECG as the deepening low
tracks across VA. Additionally, cannot rule out a rumble of
thunder between 04-10z at PHF/ORF/ECG. The rain tapers off from
SW-NE Tuesday morning- midday as winds turn to the W then NW and
become quite strong. Peak gusts to 30-40 kt are expected
(highest near the coast) from mid morning through mid aftn
before gradually diminishing. CIGs rapidly rise to MVFR then
VFR Tuesday morning.
Outlook: VFR/dry with diminishing winds Tuesday night through
Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EST Monday...
Key Messages:
- Gale Warnings continue for all local waters starting late tonight,
continuing through most of Tuesday. Elevated winds continue into
Wednesday.
- A brief period of wind gusts in excess of 45 kt is possible late
Tuesday morning into the early afternoon.
- Another period of small craft conditions is possible Thursday
evening into early Friday.
Light ENE winds prevail this afternoon across the waters as low
pressure approaches the area from the SW. Seas are 2-4 ft, with
waves 1 ft or less. Similar conditions continue into this evening.
The low pressure system tracks NE overnight, passing over or just N
of the area early Tuesday morning. The low then moves offshore and
NE of the area midday Tuesday, deepening to below 980 mb in the
process. S/SE winds quickly increase overnight to 15-25 kt. This
period of sub-gales (i.e., small craft) conditions will be brief (<6
hrs), so have pulled the start time of the gale warning back to 8z/3
AM. Gale conditions are then likely by 12z/7 AM Tuesday as winds
turn to the W and then NW on the back side of the low. Wind speeds
of 25-35 kt are expected over the coastal waters, with 20-30 kt
elsewhere. Gusts will be 35 kt over the rivers and 40-45 kt
elsewhere. Recent runs of the short term/hi-res guidance have also
suggested there could be a brief period late Tuesday morning where
gusts exceed 45 kt. In the event this happens, special marine
warnings would be issued. Gale warnings end at 21z/4 PM for the
Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters S
of Cape Charles. N of Cape Charles, the warnings go through 23z/6
PM. Small craft advisories will be needed after the gale warnings
drop off as NW winds remains 15-25 kt overnight Tuesday into at
least the first half of Wednesday. High pressure then builds toward
and over the region overnight Wednesday into early Thursday. Another
period of SCAs are looking increasingly likely Thursday evening as S-
SSW winds increase to 15-25 kt ahead of a cold front. The cold front
crosses the area Thursday night with cold advection providing
another surge of NW winds. Gusts could approach gale-force across
the nrn coastal waters, but confidence in this is low at this time.
Winds should then decrease Friday afternoon into Saturday.
Seas quickly increase to 5-8 ft by Tuesday morning and afternoon
(could be near 9 ft out 20 nm). Additionally, waves in the
Chesapeake Bay will increase to 3-5 ft (2-3 ft in the rivers and
Currituck Sound). A brief period of 6 ft waves are possible at the
mouth of the bay early Tue aftn. Seas gradually decrease heading
into Wednesday, but likely remain 4-6 ft (3 ft nearshore). Seas of 2-
4 ft are forecast overnight Wednesday into Thursday, before
increasing again to 3-5 ft Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 PM EST Monday...
Tidal anomalies increase tonight into Tuesday with the highest
tides expected on the west side of the Ches Bay. A coastal
flood advisory has been issued for the southern shore of the
Potomac River for the early morning high tide. Additionally,
elevated tides approaching high- end nuisance or low-end minor
flood are forecast over the bay side of the MD/VA Eastern Shore,
lower Bay (including Sewell`s Pt), up into the James River, as
well as along the Rappahannock and western Bay late
tonight/early Tuesday morning. A coastal flood statement has
been issued in these areas. Later Tuesday morning, anomalies
increase on the ocean side of the Eastern Shore (including Ocean
City, MD) as winds shift from E to NW, where a coastal flood
advisory has also been issued. Minor flooding will also be
possible for coastal Currituck county with the Tuesday night
high tide.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for MDZ024-025.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
MDZ024-025.
NC...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
VA...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for VAZ092-093-
095>100-524-525.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ075-077.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>638-656-
658.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ERI/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ/ERI
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1003 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure will move up the Atlantic coast. Heaviest
snowfall has shifted south but remains in Northeast PA. Much
less snow is expected now for the Southern Tier of NY and
northward. Snow moves off to the east midday Tuesday with some
lake effect snow for Central NY Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Looking over some of the early 00Z data, we have done another
slight shift south with totals and headlines. Sharp gradient
still expected over the Wyoming Valley.
Trends in the data at 18Z continued a southward adjustment to
the track. However, the latest RGEM and HRRR runs have stopped
the trend for the time being. While some guidance such as the
Hi-Res NAM takes all the snow south of the region this looks a
bit drastic at this time. Blended the previous forecast with the
RGEM and Hi-res NAM which lowered totals in most places by a few
inches. This warranted some more headline changes with a few
advisories in NE PA dropped and warnings changed to advisories.
320 pm update...
Models continue the southward trend of the snow. The northern
edge of the snow may not get into the southern tier of NY now.
I88 may be the northern edge in the east. The heavy snow is now
further south for us in the southern Catskills to the Wyoming
Valley and northern Poconos. Cancelled the advisory in the
southern tier and downgraded the warning to an advisory in
Bradford and Susquehanna Counties PA.
Both the surface low track and the upper level low are further
south. It continues to be a quick hitting storm as the features
move east quickly. There is still some banding potential across
the warning area around sunrise.
While the forcing is not as strong, there will still be good
850 to 700 mb frontogenesis on the NW side of the low that will
move through parts of NEPA. Snowfall rates are looking a bit
lower though 1 to 2 inch per hour rates are still possible. With
the more southerly track, thermodynamic profiles across the
Wyoming valley are cooler and mostly staying below freezing so
there was a larger increase in storm total snow for Luzerne
county. Cross sections through the storm shows that there is
dry air undercutting the snow so a sharp north gradient is still
expected and looking likely so snow totals are still uncertain
for parts of the Twin Tiers, especially with any small wobbles
in the track. The gradient has now moved south of the southern
tier and south of I88. The snow ends quickly late Tuesday
morning as the surface low heads ENE south of Cape Cod. Winds
won`t be much of a factor for blowing and drifting snow. Winds
pick up Tuesday afternoon behind the storm bringing in colder
air.
The rest of the forecast remains mostly unchanged. This
afternoon temperatures peaked in the 30s but won`t fall much
with clouds hanging tough. More mid and high clouds are moving
in from the southwest ahead of the storm the rest of today. Lows
upper 20s to around 30. Highs Tuesday will again be in the 30s.
Colder air comes in late in the day and Tuesday night with 850mb
temperatures falling to around -15C. This CAA and a upper level
short wave on the back side of the trough will set off lake
effect snow across CNY. Several inches of snow are possible
across the eastern Finger Lakes. There is a small chance of a
winter weather advisory. Temperatures fall to around 20 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
400 PM update...
Northwest flow continues on the back side of an upper level trough.
This allows conditions to remain favorable for lake effect snow
showers especially over the northern part of our region. Light
snowfall accumulations are expected across Central NY and the
finger lakes region. Snow showers are expected to come to an end
sometime Wednesday afternoon as high pressure begins to settle
in. Highs are expected to range in the upper 20s to low 30s mid
day with quiet conditions expected to continue Wednesday night.
Temperatures will fall into the upper teens to low 20s
overnight.
An upper level ridge briefly moves into our region early Thursday
morning keeping conditions relatively quiet to start the day. This
ridge then gets replace by an upper level trough moving in from
Canada sometime Thursday afternoon/evening. Meanwhile at the
surface, a low pressure system tracks over the Great Lakes
and into our area. This feature provides enough moisture and
lift to produce another round of snow showers. Snow showers are
expected to continue overnight on Thursday with the center of
the system passing just north of our region. This system will be
the next best chance for widespread snow accumulations, though
amounts will vary based on the elevation.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 PM Update...
Low pressure exits out of our region Friday morning with wrap around
moisture supporting lake effect snow showers behind the system. Lake
effect showers are expected to be light with chance pops mostly over
CNY. The forecast for the weekend is a bit more uncertain. A broad
upper trough in Canada may drop a weak wave through the region,
which would bring another round of snow showers on Saturday.
Otherwise, conditions do look favorable for additional lake effect
snow showers throughout the weekend until high pressure builds into
the region by early next week.
Highs for this period will mostly range in the upper 20s to mid 30s
during the day. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the teens
to mid 20s. Winds will be blustery at times with single digit wind
chills possible during the overnight and early morning hours.
Temperatures trend a bit warmer at the early start of next week with
highs above freezing.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tricky aviation forecast for KAVP as it is uncertain how far
north steadier snow gets late tonight/Tuesday morning. It is
possible the steadier snow (and therefore associated IFR visbys)
remain south of KAVP. For now, expecting a rather short window
of seeing IFR visbys between 08Z and 14Z with MVFR to Fuel
Alternate ceilings, before gradual improvement back to VFR
occurs by Tuesday afternoon.
The Central NY terminals should be far enough north to miss out
on any steadier snow and associated visby restrictions. That
being said, MVFR ceilings may make it as far north as KITH
during the mid-late morning hours, before a return to VFR
occurs. KSYR and KRME likely remain VFR most of the entire
period (at least through 00Z Wednesday).
Light winds tonight and early Tuesday morning will increase to
around 10kts with occasional gusts up to 20kts Tuesday
afternoon.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...lingering snow showers across
Central NY and associated occasional restrictions; Mainly VFR
at KAVP.
Thursday through Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in
snow showers.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ040-043.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ044-047-048-
072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJG/TAC
NEAR TERM...AJG/MWG/TAC
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BJG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
610 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 554 PM CST MON FEB 12 2024
The heavy rainfall and potential for additional flash flooding
has ended. Therefore, the watch was canceled slightly early. There
were still many locations where water was continuing to runoff, so
exercise caution when driving near creeks and streams, and known
lower areas. The front was near the fine line depicted on area
radars. A strong pressure gradient existed near this line. Some
wind gusts may approach 30-35 mph along and behind this front.
Most of the winds will stay below Wind Advisory criteria, but a
brief gust is certainly possible. Due to the saturated ground
conditions, a weakened tree could be knocked down and power may be
interrupted. The upper low will move from the Mid South to the
Mid Atlantic overnight. Lower clouds and some light rain or
drizzle is possible through midnight north and then the clouds
will slowly start to thin. The clouds will mostly clear through
the morning hours north to south. Slightly adjusted the
temperature trends, rain chances, and dew points early this
evening, but the forecast remains on target. Much cooler
conditions expected by sunrise with lows mainly 30 to 40 degrees.
75
Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 141 PM CST MON FEB 12 2024
A closed low was positioned over Arkansas while broad mid-level
ridging was over the Northwest Caribbean and a shortwave ridge was
over Northwest Mexico and Southern Arizona. A surface low was
analyzed across Northwest Alabama with a cold front extending
south to near Pensacola while a warm front extended northeast into
the Southern Appalachians of North Georgia and East Tennessee.
This afternoon.
Surface-based instability values are fairly low areawide due to
extensive cloud cover and recent widespread showers with
thunderstorms this morning. Surface winds are converging toward
the low pressure area with south to southeast winds increasing
across our area early this afternoon. Winds are abruptly shifting
out of the west as the cold front advances east across the western
portion of the state as of this writing.
Elevated instability is increasing due to steepening lapse rates
with the approaching upper low to our northwest. A few bands of
showers with some thunderstorms have been developing with the
thunderstorm activity racing northeastward from 60-70 mph due to
not being rooted in the surface boundary layer. RAP 13 km analysis
indicates the presence of a 140 kt jet in the 250 to 300 mb layer
along with 90 kt winds at 500 mb and winds over 50 kts at 700 mb
while strong vorticity aloft is approaching from the west in
association with the upper low. This dynamical support is
supporting a few intense elevated storms capable of producing
small hail. This risk will continue across portions of the
northern half of our forecast area through sunset.
A flood watch remains in effect until 6 pm CST for most of our
counties. The watch remains in effect, but the risk is decreasing
with time through the afternoon as most of the widespread activity
is moving east into Georgia and the activity that remains is
moving east to northeast fairly quickly, greatly reducing the
potential for prolonged heavy downpours over a single location.
Clouds will begin to decrease later this afternoon across
portions of our west and southwest counties as the cold front
pushes further to the east. Bands of showers with some
thunderstorm activity will continue to move east-northeast and
there will remain potential for a few storms that will be capable
of producing small hail. Winds will be picking up in the 12-24 mph
range at times, initially from the south as the front approaches,
then shifting out of the west with the passage of the front.
Highs have already been reached across much of the area with
current readings early this afternoon from the upper 50s northwest
to the mid 60s southeast.
Tonight.
The upper low will open in to a potent shortwave and accelerate
eastward as it moves over the Tennessee Valley overnight. The
surface low will rapidly deepen and intensify as it moves
northeast into Virginia after midnight while expansive surface
high pressure across much of the Intermountain West builds east
across the Southern Plains and into the area.
Clouds will be slow to continue to decrease with time from
southwest to northeast overnight. Chances for showers will linger
across the northeast half of the area due to continued steepening
lapse rates aloft but the chance of thunderstorms and risk of
small hail will subside through early evening. Winds will remain
breezy with speeds from 10-20 mph at times overnight. Lows will
range from near freezing far northwest to around 40 far southeast.
The combination of temperatures and breezy conditions will
produce wind chill values from the mid 20s far north to near
freezing far southeast.
Tuesday.
Lower heights aloft will be found well to our northeast while a
weaker positively-tilted shortwave moves east over the area during
the day. Broad lower-amplitude ridging builds over the Central
Plains to our west where expansive high pressure will extend from
the West Coast southeast into the Lower Mississippi River Valley
Region.
Expect dry conditions with clouds decreasing through the day on
Tuesday. Winds will be from the northwest at 7-14 mph with high
temperatures ranging from the low 50s far northwest to near 60 far
southeast.
05
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON FEB 12 2024
Conditions are dry for much of the week, as surface ridging
moves across the area. Highs will be back in the 60s by Wednesday
with lows in the 30s and 40s. The next chance of rain arrives
Friday as a dampened trough moves across the northern CONUS, and
never has a chance to phase with a southern stream shortwave. This
limits moisture return and expect only light rain for Central
Alabama, mainly Friday night and Saturday.
14
Previous long-term discussion:
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CST MON FEB 12 2024
The latter part of the week looks dry and mild across Central
Alabama, with high temps in the 60s to near 70 through Friday.
Rain chances return Friday night into Saturday ahead of a cold
front, which will lead to a cooler weekend. Rain amounts at this
juncture look to be fairly light, on the order of 0.5 to 1 inch
across the area. The highest rain amounts will come across the
southeastern counties, mainly during the day Saturday.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM CST MON FEB 12 2024
MVFR ceilings will dominate through the first 12 hours. Some light
rain or drizzle is possible with these clouds north. The front was
exiting into Georgia at this writing, therefore the winds have
shifted in most locations to westerly with gusts around 25kts.
Gusty winds will remain much of the overnight hours with the MVFR
ceilings holding on. There may be a brief period where some of
these ceilings drop into IFR, mainly far north. The clouds
dissipate through he morning hours from the north to south. VFR
should be achieved between 14-17z. Winds shift slightly to the
northwest and will decrease to near 10kts.
75
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier conditions return tomorrow through much of the week. Minimum RH
values will be as low as 30 percent the next few afternoons. 20ft
winds will turn northwesterly tonight at 10-15mph, and decrease
through the day tomorrow to 6-12mph. With the influence of surface
ridging, winds will be light and variable Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 34 54 29 63 / 30 0 0 0
Anniston 36 54 32 64 / 20 0 0 0
Birmingham 35 53 34 63 / 20 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 37 56 34 65 / 20 0 0 0
Calera 36 54 34 64 / 20 0 0 0
Auburn 38 56 35 64 / 30 0 0 0
Montgomery 39 57 34 64 / 10 0 0 0
Troy 39 58 34 67 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...75
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1004 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry, tranquil weather with above normal
temperatures today. A quick hitting Winter Storm impacts the
region Tuesday. This brings heavy snow to portions of the
region, especially the southern half of southern New England, along
with strong to damaging winds for Cape Cod and the Islands.
Coastal flooding is likely Tuesday afternoon from Boston
southward to Cape Cod and the islands. Dry Wednesday and Thursday
with gusty northwest winds behind the system. A clipper system
will bring a quick shot of snow overnight Thursday into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
10 PM Update...
The southward trend continues with 00z NAM, HRRR, WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM. Lowered accum north of the MA Pike where confidence is
highest in less snowfall. As a result converted some of the
warnings to advisories and dropped the advisory for NW MA. May
have to lower amounts further south but no changes made along
and south of the MA and will await full 00z model suite before
making any changes.
Key Points...
* Quick hitting Winter Storm Tuesday, though the trend has been less
snow and quite a bit further south.
* Generally thinking the bullseye will be over southeast MA/southern
RI where 6-10 inches is possible.
* Dangerous travel possible with widespread 1-2" per hour snowfall
rates possible Tue AM through the afternoon. May even have brief
instances of 3" per hour rates.
* Wet snow & strong winds along the coast may result in power
outages.
Details...
Well, I`ll get right to the point with this update, there`s been a
big change to the forecast this afternoon based on a remarkably late
but notable trend in the 12z/18z guidance which now keeps the bulk
of the snow centered over the south coast of southern New England.
This change is due not only to a southern shift in the track of the
low but also a notable shift in the 500 mb trough; with a slower and
less amplified solution and the northern and southern stream energy
failing to phase/strengthen as they pass through the region. This
shift has notably moved the zone of mid level frontogenesis to the
south, and since we typically see the best forcing/banding to the
northwest of the maxima this places southeast MA/Cape Cod and
southern RI in the bullseye. BUFKIT soundings do indicate decent
omega (forcing for lift) within the dendritic snow growth zone
further north into MA, so we should still see some decent snowfall
there, but the maxima looks to be south and east. While this is
remarkably late in the game for such a relatively big shift, nearly
all of the 12Z guidance including the 12Z ECMWF, 18Z NAM, 18Z HRRR
and more show it. The new forecast calls for a swath of 6 to 10
inches across southeast MA/RI with a pretty tight gradient to the
north down to potentially nothing in far northwest MA. Uncertainty
remains high, however, given marginal temperatures at onset (though
good dynamics should help cool the column to overcome this) and
potential for a shift back north with overnight guidance. This
southern shift brings slightly cooler air which may help mitigate
snow loading risk a bit, but a wet, and rather heavy snow continues
to be expected. Blizzard conditions are possible, especially on the
outer Cape where the strongest winds are expected, with gusts has
high as 55 mph possible. Elsewhere winds will be gusty, blowing 30-
40 mph over southeast MA and along the immediate coasts of MA and
RI. The Winter Storm Warning has been expanded into Cape Cod and the
islands while it has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory
for western and north central MA.
The trough digs into Southern New England and lifts into the
Atlantic Tuesday afternoon with drier air quickly filling in no NW
flow. This brings snow to an end by 4 to 8 pm from west to east on
Tuesday evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tuesday night will be much quieter with drier NW flow taking hold.
Winds will remain blustery, however given CAA and a well mixed
boundary layer. This will make lows in the low 20s feel more like
the low teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights
* Dry Wednesday and Thursday with gusty winds
* Clipper system brings another quick round of snow Thursday night
into Friday
Wednesday and Thursday
Upper level ridge and weak high pressure builds in behind Tuesdays
storm system allowing conditions to dry out and skies to clear
esspically with considerable dry air at the mid levels and aloft.
Highs on Wednesday and Thursday stay mild in the low to mid 30s.
With clear skies and new snowfall, opted to use cooler MOS guidance
dropping lows into the teens. Winds remain gusty Wednesday out of
the NW due to a strong pressure gradient. Gusts of 25-35mph could
effect power restoration efforts inland while gusts of 30-40 knots
over the waters will likely lead to continued hazardous marine
conditions. Winds slowly begin to diminish Wednesday night into
Thursday but remain blustery at 10-15mph.
Thursday night into Friday
A clipper system brings a quick shot of snow Thursday night into
Friday along with more gusty winds. Deterministic and ensemble
guidance are in good agreement at this time on a clipper low
tracking through southern New England. Temperatures overnight should
remain below freezing allowing for the precip to fall all as snow.
The best chance for plowable snow looks to be across northern MA,
but could shift depending on the exact track of the low. NBM 25th
to 75th percentile snow accumulations at this time range from 1-4
inches north of the MA pike, while south of the pike, snowfall
ranges from a coating to 3 inches. Snow looks to end Friday morning
with clearing skies Friday afternoon. Highs Friday top out in the
mid to upper 30s.
Gusty winds are likely again Friday as a strong 925mb LLJ of 40-50
knots moves over the region. Westerly winds will enhance mixing
which could allow for gusts of 35-45mph inland and 45-55mph near the
coasts. NBM shows low probabilities of 10-30% for gusts to exceed
46mph (Wind Advisory) inland esspically for the Berkshires. Over
Cape Cod and Islands, NBM probabilites are moderate to exceed 46mph
at 30-60%.
Saturday and Sunday
Another weak clipper system could affect the region Saturday, but
guidance at this time remains in disagreement on the track of this
next low. Winds remain breezy Saturday and Sunday with gusts of 10-
20mph. Highs both days top out in the low to mid 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
VFR tonight prior to precipitation onset. Precipitation will
spread in from southwest to northeast from the 10-14Z
timeframe. Think MVFR to IFR conditions are most likely across
CT and into western MA toward daybreak. Winds shifting to the
N/NE late and increasing 10-15 kts toward daybreak along with
15-25 kt gusts.
Tuesday... Low Confidence
Conditions rapidly deteriorate to MVFR then LIFR levels in
moderate to heavy snow. Precip will likely start off as rain or
rain/snow mix for Cape Cod and the Islands. Rain should switch
over to snow between 15-19z. Further inland, most locations will
be all snow. Snowfall could be heavy at times with 1-2" per
snowfall rates accumulating quickly. Worst conditions from
roughly 14-18Z inland and 17z-22z for the Cape and Islands.
There remains considerable uncertainty on the northern extent
of heavy snowfall and further shifts south could mean much
lower impact for the northern terminals including BOS. Winds
out of the NE at 15-30 kts shifting to the N/NNW during the
afternoon. Gusts of 25-60 kts. Will see the highest speeds/gusts
across the Cape/Islands.
Tuesday night...High confidence.
Snow comes to an end after 20 to 22Z. VFR. NW winds 5-15 kts
with gusts to 25 kts for the islands.
KBOS TAF...Low confidence. Snow moves in 12-13Z and conditions
deteriorate quickly in the morning with LIFR vsbys and moderate
snow expected. Heaviest snow should generally fall from
16z-20z. There remains considerable uncertainty on the northern
extent of heavy snowfall. Improving to VFR by 00Z.
KBDL TAF...Low confidence.Snow moves in 10-11z with conditions
deteriorating quickly with LIFR and moderate snow from 13z-18z. There
remains considerable uncertainty on the northern extent of
heavy snowfall. Improving to VFR by 22Z.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Friday/...
Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to
40 kt.
Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 35 kt. Chance SN.
Friday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight
chance SN.
Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Saturday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Highlights...
* NNE winds increasing to between 40 and 55 knots Tue
* Gale & Storm Warnings In Effect with 10-15+ foot seas expected
Tonight...High confidence.
The weak high lifts further to the northeast and the pressure
gradient begins to tighten as our next system lifts off the Mid
Atlantic coast toward daybreak. Light winds during the evening
shifting to the ENE and increasing 15-30 kts after midnight.
Should see some 25-35 kt gusts toward daybreak.
Tuesday...High Confidence.
A rapidly intensifying low pressure passes near the Benchmark
on Tuesday. This system will under-go rapid intensification and
the pressure falls coupled with cold air aloft will aid in the
mixing process. Have upgraded Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay
to Gale Warnings. Elsewhere the Storm and Gale Warnings still
look on track. Winds really ramp up during the day Tuesday
which will allow seas to build to between 10 to 15+ ft.
Tuesday night...High confidence.
Seas 6 to 9 ft. NW winds 15-20 kts gusting
25 to 30 kts.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Friday/...
Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up
to 10 ft.
Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough
seas up to 11 ft.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.
Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, chance
of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, chance of snow.
Friday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Local rough seas.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
snow, chance of rain.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Key Points:
- Coastal Flood Warning expanded to NE MA.
- Widespread minor to moderate flooding during Tue PM high tide
along E MA coast with significant beach erosion.
- Residual minor flooding possible for early Wed AM high tide.
Fairly high confidence on widespread minor flooding (up to one foot
deep) with pockets of moderate flooding (1 to 3 feet deep) in more
vulnerable locations during Tue afternoon high tide along eastern MA
coast.
Little change from earlier thinking. Expecting a storm surge of 2 to
3 feet with higher values focused from Boston to Cape Cod Bay,
Nantucket, and Martha`s Vineyard and somewhat lower values of around
2 feet closer to NH border. We continue to go slightly above model
storm surge guidance due to strong pressure falls and typical mode
bias. Likewise, wave mode guidance was increased by about 25% on
eastern MA waters which yields seas of 15-20 ft offshore.
We added northeast MA to the Coastal Flood Warning. Despite the
expectation of less surge, impacts will be higher than usual given
significant coastal erosion that has taken place this winter.
Finally, we should see some minor coastal flooding around high
tide earl Wed morning due to leftover surge and continued rough
seas. Flow is more N/NW by that time which could favor Cape Cod
Bay shoreline communities for most of the impacts. Coastal Flood
Advisories may be needed after we pass the Tue PM high tide
cycle.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
for CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
for MAZ012>024.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST
Wednesday for MAZ004>007-009>011-026.
Coastal Flood Warning from noon to 5 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ007-
015-016-019-022>024.
High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for
MAZ022>024.
RI...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
for RIZ001>008.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for RIZ008.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-236.
Storm Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ231-232-
254-255.
Gale Warning from 7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for
ANZ233>235-237-250-251-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/KP
NEAR TERM...KJC/BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...BW/KP
MARINE...BW/KP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
650 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A progressive band of snow moves through Tuesday afternoon and
evening, mainly north of highway 200, bringing a 50%
probability of snowfall amounts greater than 0.1 inches and
less than 10% probability of amounts greater than 1 inch.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
Stratus is spreading south and starting to fill back in across
our west and west, with clearing linger near central and west
central MN. Trend should be for these areas to continue to fill
in this evening, and this matches previous forecast well. There
is one report at Winnipeg of freezing drizzle, but the
saturated layer is much shallower (thus just stratus) farther
south according to the RAP and 18Z NAM towards the US/Canada
border. This supports dry conditions/no impacts in our forecast
area (besides aviation impacts from stratus) during the
overnight period. Besides near term adjustments the forecast
remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
Variable amounts of cloud cover will be found across the FA
tonight, although it appears the least amounts, at least into
the evening, will be across the southwest FA. Sky cover
associated with the next system is already pushing into western
North Dakota, while the clouds over northeast North Dakota into
northwest Minnesota will likely hold in place. Since it does
not look like any particular place will see any long duration of
clear skies, temperatures should not fall too far. Anticipate
most areas to be cloudy again by Tuesday morning, but any snow
associated with the next system should hold off until around the
noon hour.
As mentioned above, the progressive band of snow will move from
west to east across the FA Tuesday afternoon and evening. The
main forcing is the 700/500mb wave, which tracks across
Manitoba, well north of Winnipeg. There is some 850mb warm
advection as well, but overall pretty weak. Because of this,
snowfall amounts look to stay on the lower end, and mainly north
of highway 200. Probabilities for greater then 0/1 inches of
snow are about 50 percent in this area, while probabilities for
greater than 1 inch are less then 10 percent. When this snow
comes through, wind speeds are not that high (10-15 mph) and
temperatures are pretty mild (upper 20s to low 30s).
Beyond this, the FA remains in northwest flow, with other waves
moving through. However, these other waves continue to mainly
remain south of this FA. One moves across South Dakota and
southern Minnesota Wednesday into Wednesday night. However, it
may still brush the North and South Dakota border region in our
far southern FA. This is followed by another system Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night, again to the south of the FA. The
main question by late week into the weekend is slightly cooler
temperatures. Even so, those slightly cooler temperatures are
pretty close to mid February normals.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
Conditions at TAF issuance are VFR across eastern ND, but there
are still pockets of MVFR stratus masked by the other cloud
decks on satellite in MN (as indicated by surface obs).
Guidances shows this filling back in this evening eventually
impacting all TAF sites in eastern ND and northwest MN by 06Z
(1500-2800 FT AGL range). After a brief period of improvement to
VFR late Tuesday morning at most terminals (DVL not likely to
see improvement), IFR to MVFR conditions return with a cold
front arriving during the afternoon hours in ND. This will also
bring light snow to KDVL and KGFK during the later part of the
current TAF period (after 00Z in northwest MN).
Northerly winds become variable later this evening due to the
influence of surface high pressure, but eventually increase to
8-12kt from the south-southeast ahead of the front Tuesday. They
shift to the southwest then west-northwest behind the front (at
KDVL first during the TAF period and after 00Z elsewhere).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
530 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light lake effect snow showers are expected across northern
Wisconsin tonight, tapering off Tuesday morning. Up to an inch
of snow is possible, mainly across Vilas County.
- Snow is likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning, especially
in central and east central Wisconsin. One to three inches are
possible south of highway 64. The highest totals should be from
Oshkosh to Manitowoc.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a low
pressure system moving east across the Upper Peninsula early this
afternoon. It`s pushing a cold front, analyzed over northeast
Wisconsin at 18z, to the southeast. Low stratus hasn`t made much
progress south so far today, as the colder air trails the cold
front by some distance. Some expansion remains possible as low
level lapse rates steepen this afternoon. As the colder air
gradually filters south and across the area, lake effect snow
accumulations followed by clouds/temps are the main forecast
challenges.
Tonight...Behind the cold front, winds will veer to the northwest
this evening and then north overnight. A colder low level airmass
will then surge south across the area, which should cause the low
cloud mass to shift south through the night. Cooling temperatures
will also cause conditions to become unstable across Lake Superior
which will augment the cloud cover and create lake effect snow
showers into Vilas county. The veering wind profiles and modest
speeds of 10 kts will limit accumulations and target the far
northwest corner of Vilas county for 1-2 inches of accumulations.
Although it will be a colder airmass, the cloud cover will prevent
a large drop of temps. Lows should range from the upper teens to
middle 20s.
Tuesday...High pressure will build into the region in the
afternoon. But until then, north winds and cyclonic flow will keep
partly to mostly cloudy conditions in the forecast. Lake effect
snow showers will come to an end during the morning as wind fields
lighten over western Lake Superior. Highs ranging from the upper
20s to middle 30s.
Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Monday
A weak cold front will move into Wisconsin late Tuesday
night and could produce some snow flurries in central and north
central Wisconsin Wednesday morning. The front should move into
southern Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon and stall as a surface low
moves northeast along it.
The models are now in better agreement with the track of the surface
low and precipitation amounts. The precipitation could start out
as rain or a mix of rain and snow south of highway 29 Wednesday
evening, but should change to all snow by midnight. Snowfall
amounts of one to three inches are expected south of highway 64,
with possibly four inches from Oshkosh to Manitowoc. The snow
should end by noon Thursday.
Colder air will arrive Friday and Saturday, with some lake effect
snow showers in northcentral Wisconsin. While sub zero wind chills
are likely Friday night and Saturday night, air temperatures will
be pretty close to normal for this time of the year.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 523 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
Cool NNW flow in the wake of a cold frontal passage will
gradually pull low clouds southward across the forecast area
tonight. It will also result in lake-effect snow showers and
flurries across northern WI, with the snow showers becoming most
numerous in Vilas County. MVFR conditions will be prevalent in
northern WI, but flight conditions will probably oscillate
between MVFR/low-end VFR (2500-3500 ft agl) at the southern TAF
sites through late morning Tuesday. Ceilings should rise to VFR
across the entire CWA by 16-17z/Tues, due to daytime heating and
mixing.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC/RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1034 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A passing cold front tonight will bring strong and gusty winds
through Tuesday. High pressure will bring much calmer weather
conditions for Wednesday through Friday, but another system
should increase rain chances into the weekend. High pressure
should build in over the latter half of the weekend into early
next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
POPs have been adjusted accordingly as a result of pcpn, or
the lack of, overhead and upstream via latest radar mosaics.
Have also adjusted thunder, and kept T main threat over the
adjacent offshore waters. Inshore waters remain too cold and
stable ahead of the approaching cold front and clouds and pcpn
ahead of the front have also limited instability. Could see
some convective elements along the immediate cold front but will
limit them to showers with no T included. QPF has also been
adjusted lower for the remaining threat of pcpn across the FA.
This will also limit the various river responses. New river
forecast stages this evening across the FA have been lowered via
latest modeling done by the SE River Fcst Center. Updates have
been issued along with the Lumber River no longer a threat to
breach minor flooding. Latest HRRR continues to illustrate the
wind adv potential across the FA. Enough rain has fallen to
loosen the soil across portions of the FA, allowing even wind
gusts 35 to 45 mph, below wind adv numerical thresholds, to
possibly knock down small trees. Continued the wind adv. Min
temp fcst looks aok, very little tweaking applied.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Regional mosaic shows one final push of moisture from the
southwest that will engulf the area over the next few hours,
into this evening. For areas along the I-95 corridor, the
persistent rainfall will continue, possibly getting heavier
as elevated convective elements produce higher precip rates.
Still no concerns for widespread flooding or impacts beyond
slow travel due to visibility in moderate to heavy rain.
Low level saturation with temperatures in the low 60s are
unlikely to break a stable surface layer, even as low level
winds increase ahead of an approaching low. While precip rates
will increase and some areas hear a rumble of thunder or two,
the threat for severe weather and strong winds remains low.
The greatest concern for impacts will come from strong winds
overnight. As the cold front moves through and upper low
rotates through the western Carolinas, dry air advection will
create a mostly dry adiabatic mixed layer. With the low level
jet passing overhead, these winds should have a reasonable
avenue to mix to the surface. The strongest winds are likely to
occur over the I-95 corridor after midnight and coastal areas
closer to sunrise. A Wind Advisory has been issued as gusts up
to 50 mph are possible area- wide. In addition to gusts up to
50 mph, saturated soils could lead to greater impacts than
these winds would typically create. Some areas may see downed
trees and isolated power outages.
Dry and breezy on Tuesday with temperatures in the upper 50s
and low 60s across the area. Winds and clouds both decrease
throughout the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will migrate across the Southeast through midweek
reaching the coast Wed night. The gradient relaxes with winds
subsiding and Northwest flow Tues night into Wed backing around
to the W and then SW by Wed eve, but remaining light. Flow aloft
becomes fairly zonal with slight ridging into Wed. Overall, a
dry period with temps right around normal. CAA is over for the
most part, but the dry air mass and calm winds overnight will
allow for some radiational cooling with low temps dropping down
into the 30s both Tues and Wed night. Wed will be the coolest
day of the week with a cool start but plenty of sunshine helping
temps rebound to near 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will shift farther off the Southeast coast Thurs
through Fri with a southerly low level flow and a westerly more
zonal flow aloft. A very dry air mass early Thurs will begin to
modify through late Thurs, but a dry cold front will move down
from the north with a slight drop in temps and moisture early
Fri, before deeper layer moisture returns for the weekend as a
southern stream system and cold front from the northwest combine
to produce increasing clouds and chc of pcp for Sat. As it
stands now, it looks like best chc of pcp will come overnight
Fri into early Sat before broad trough to the north shifts east
and high pressure builds down possibly keeping all pcp after Sat
aftn south of the area. Confidence is lower with the evolution
of these systems, but looks like main area of pcp will get
pushed southward and track south of the local forecast area
over the latter half of the weekend. For now, will go with main
pcp chance on Sat and drying into Sun with a dry start to next
week.
High temps will reach up into the mid 60s Thurs and may be a
couple of degrees lower on Fri as front drops south and Sat due
to clouds and pcp. Drier and cool air will make its way in on
Sun with high temps in the 50s most places.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure sfc and aloft to intensify as it tracks from
Eastern TN early this evening to off the VA Capes by Sunrise
Tue. Will deal with periodic MVFR/IFR conditions from pcpn and
low ceilings thru late this evening inland terminals to around
midnight at the coastal terminals. Improving wx conditions
expected once the CFP occurs, from west to east, again from late
this evening to just after midnight. However, after FROPA and
as the low intensifies, the sf pg will dramatically tighten
with strong SW-W materializing along with gusts to 35-45 knots
during the remainder of the pre-dawn Tue hrs and lasting into
daylight Tue morning hrs. The front will scour out any remaining
low clouds and ending any threat from lingering showers and sea
fog. Winds will exhibit a diminishing trend during Tue aftn and
early evening as they become northwesterly in direction.
Extended Outlook...VFR to dominate into Fri with a threat for
flight restrictions late Fri into Sat. Winds will quickly
diminish Tue aftn to below 10 kt during Tue night.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Webcams show dense fog hanging on in the NC
nearshore waters with patchy mist and visibilities between 2-3
nm in the SC nearshore waters. Expect this to continue this
evening as dew points increase in strengthening southerly flow.
As winds increase ahead of and behind a cold front tonight, any
remaining fog should become diffuse and quickly dissipate.
Strong winds associated with a cold front and upper low will bring
gale conditions overnight and into Tuesday. Winds will increase
rapidly around or just after midnight. Gusts up to 45 knots are
possible, mainly farther offshore where slightly warmer shelf waters
should promote better mixing. Gusts up to 40 knots appear more
realistic for the waters near the coast. Seas generally 7-10 feet.
Improving Tuesday afternoon with a follow-up SCA possible after
noon.
Tuesday night through Saturday...
Gradient relaxes as high pressure migrates across the Southeast
Tues night through Wed. Winds will veer from to the NW to N
through Tues night as they weaken becoming 10 to 15 kts through
midweek with seas dropping down to 3 ft or less.
Winds will increase slightly later on Thurs as high pressure
shifts off the coast and a cold front drops south but winds will
become more variable as this front shifts back north and another
front and storm system approach into the weekend. Overall,
conditions should remain sub-SCA through at least Thurs and
probably most of the period.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Wind Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for SCZ017-023-024-032-
033-039-054>056-058-059.
NC...Wind Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ107.
MARINE...Gale Warning until noon EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RGZ/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1103 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A passing area of strengthening low pressure is bringing rain,
wind, and eventually some snow to eastern Kentucky into late
tonight.
- Confidence is low for impactful snowfall accumulations for much
of the area, but the best chances appear to be along a corridor
from northern Rockcastle to southern Rowan counties and also
over the higher elevations above 2,000 feet in southeast
Kentucky, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.
- A brief cool down to near seasonal normal temperatures on
Tuesday, before milder temperatures return.
- Greater uncertainty persists for late in the week concerning the
track and timing of systems, particularly for a developing
weekend system which could bring more rain and some light snow.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 PM EST MON FEB 12 2024
A deformation band continues to pivot across Central and Eastern
Kentucky this evening behind an ~996 mb surface low lifting across
southwest Virginia. Radar correlation coefficients show the snow
level dropping rapidly northwest of JKL and expect rain to begin
mixing with snow shortly. Once the precipitation transitions to
all snow, look for a brief period of moderate to heavy snowfall.
Snowfall rates should be sufficient to overcome warm ground
temperatures. The greatest accumulations are expected over the
ridges, where temperatures will cool most quickly. The Winter
Weather Advisory was realigned slight southeastward from
Rockcastle to Rowan to compensate for the latest positioning of
the deformation band. Northwest of this band, expect a quick
cutoff to little or no accumulation. A strongly elevation based
Winter Weather Advisory was also issued for the southeastern
counties where impactful accumulations of at least 1 inch are
increasingly likely at elevations above 2,000 feet.
UPDATE Issued at 750 PM EST MON FEB 12 2024
00Z sfc analysis shows a deepening area of low pressure cutting
through the southern Appalachians currently moving into far
southeast Kentucky. This will make for an active and dynamic
period of weather from this evening into early Tuesday morning.
Currently, it remains all rain out there owing to sfc
temperatures and dewpoints well above freezing. However, moderate
to heavy rains will continue mainly northwest of the sfc low and
this will likely start to transition to snow as more dry air is
entrained into the system from the northwest along with dynamic
cooling in the deformation zone. This snow band then transitions
east through the area fairly quickly after midnight, but still
should be enough for some places to pick up a quick couple of
inches of slushy accumulation. Presently we will hold with the
advisories as they are with an SPS out for the rest of the area
but some adjustments may be necessary as this changeable
situation (which no models are handling well with any consistency)
unfolds over the next few hours. One area of concern will be the
colder higher terrain of the far southeast where a more solid
inch or so of accumulation could occur. Otherwise, temperatures
(and dewpoints) across the area vary from the low 40s in the
northwest to the lower 50s in the far southeast. Have updated the
forecast to fine tune the PoPs and snow transition per the latest
radar and CAMs trends. It is worth noting that the latest HRRR has
further shifted its snow amounts to the southeast and lessened
them into just an SPS range. The current obs and trends were also
included with this update. These adjusted grids have been sent to
the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and
SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 443 PM EST MON FEB 12 2024
Analysis and Discussion:
The upper pattern in the short term will active to start things off.
A large trough of low pressure currently move through the lower
Tennessee Valley will bring showers and a few storms to eastern
Kentucky this afternoon through early this evening. As this system
continues moving off to our east, and colder air spills in to the
west and northwest of the surface low, rain will mix with and
eventually change over to snow. The transition will begin to occur
between 11 pm and midnight tonight, with all snow across the area by
around 4 am tomorrow morning. Based on the latest models, there
is still some uncertainty regarding which track this southern
storm system will take, and therefore also exact orientation of
the band of moderate to at times heavy snow on the western edge of
the low. At this time, some models are shifting the snow band
further to the southeast, while others are not. Considering all
the uncertainty, decided to slightly shift the snow band in our
forecast area slightly southeast, but not too much. Did decided to
slightly up snowfall amounts for the rest of the forecast outside
of our advisory per the latest WWD snowfall forecast.
Due to how warm it has been all day, especially the ground, and how
quickly the area of snow will be moving through the area, did not
feel comfortable expanding our advisory or increasing snowfall
amounts by very much. In other words, the winter advisory is pretty
much the same as it was when first issued this morning.
However, we will continue monitoring the upcoming runs of short term
model data and observation trends to see if the advisory needs
further updates later this evening.
As far as temperatures go, we will likely see slightly below normal
values on Tuesday, even through we will be clearing out through out
the day, due to snow cover and the invasion of colder air we see
later tonight into early Tuesday. The primary concerns in this
portion of the forecast will be how much snow we see overnight and
any travel impacts that occur due to the snow accumulating on area
roadways, especially bridges and overpasses and untreated roads. The
snow should come to and end before day break. Even once the snow has
stopped, roads could remain slick through around 9 am. After the
snow is over, clouds should steadily scatter out through out the
day, with partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions on tap by early
afternoon. Winds will increase and become gusty this evening and
tonight, as low pressure moves by to our south and east.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 440 PM EST MON FEB 12 2024
Fairly calm extended period, with generally at or above normal
temperatures for mid/late February.
We will start the period off with a welcomed bout of high pressure
across the region, along with dampened ridging aloft. This will
remain in place and keep conditions dry and winds light through
Wednesday night. While the surface winds will be fairly light, the
predominate direction will become more southerly, especially by
Wednesday afternoon as the center of high pressure begins to shift
eastward. With strong subsidence overhead Wednesday night, clear
skies, and light southerly winds, this may be a good set up for some
decoupling and a ridge/valley temperature split as cold air pools
into the deeper valleys. Currently have temperatures in the valleys
bottoming out in the low 30s, with ridges in the mid and upper 30s.
Conditions will undergo some change on Thursday into Thursday
evening. As the ridge exits eastward, a shortwave will take it`s
place across the Ohio Valley. In coordination with this shortwave, a
deepening surface low pressure system will also be in place,
starting in the Mid-Mississippi Valley at 6Z Thursday, then crossing
the Lower Great Lakes between 12 and 18Z Thursday, before moving
into the eastern Great Lakes by 0Z Friday. Just ahead of this
system, a warm surge of SW flow will be in place across the
Commonwealth, with temperatures expected to top out in the mid and
upper 50s by Thursday afternoon despite increased cloud cover. A
weak frontal boundary should then quickly push through the Ohio
Valley Thursday afternoon and evening. There is still some
uncertainty in the models about how far south the precip will
migrate along the cold front. The NAM keeps the moisture trapped
well to our north, but the ECWMF and GFS does bring some pops into
the northern and far eastern part of the state Thursday afternoon
and evening. Kept with the NBM solution at this time, which keeps
with low-end chance pops during this time. Given that this is a
relatively weaker front, and there isn`t much change of flow aloft,
don`t expect much impacts on the backside of the boundary either. No
strong CAA will keep temperatures mild, and precip should remain all
rain. The main impact will be lower temperatures for during the day
Friday as NW to SE flow does start to amplify. While Thursdays highs
topped out in the mid and upper 60s, Friday will be about 5 to 10
degrees cooler.
High pressure will also briefly take hold again for during the day
Friday, with dry weather on tap. Unfortunately, this wasn`t meant to
last. The clouds won`t even have time to clear out during the day
before the next system comes knocking on our doorstep. A strong
upper level low well to our north across James Bay will begin
rotating southward, with zonal flow transitioning more to longwave
troughing. Several shortwaves will ride along this deepening trough.
Unfortunately other than the general overall pattern, there is quite
a bit of disagreement in each model concerning the shortwaves and
low pressure system that ride this trough. Either way, both the GFS
and ECWMF show precip associated with a shortwave and low pressure
system moving across the state by Friday night into Saturday
morning. It is interesting to see how well they agree on the precip
coverage and timing, considering the driving features are very
different. Another impact will be the increased NW to SE flow, which
will continue to advect colder air into the region. Highs on
Saturday should only top out in the upper 30s to low 40s, below
seasonal normals for mid-February. This may also mean that
temperatures overnight both Friday night and Saturday night could be
cool enough to warrant either a mix of rain and snow or all snow at
times. Thankfully impacts look to be quite minimal given the lack of
QPF and warm ground temps leading into the event - only a few tenths
of an inch of snow are currently forecast for Friday night, before
transitioning back to all rain.
This longwave trough and NW to SE flow will remain in place through
Sunday, though high pressure should take hold at the surface,
keeping the state dry from late Saturday well into Monday morning.
Upper level flow will finally relax during this time and become more
zonal again, reducing the amount of CAA into the region. With SW to
S flow ongoing at the surface both Sunday and Monday, we should see
a slow warm-up in temperatures. Highs on Sunday will be more
seasonal, in the mid and upper 40s, while Monday will see temps
return to the low to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST MON FEB 12 2024
Moderate to heavy rain showers are moving through the aviation
forecast area with some earlier instances of thunder mixed in.
This is resulting in IFR or lower conditions in our western
terminals with better conditions to the east. The rain showers
will mix with and change to snow sometime between 03 and 06Z
tonight from northwest to southeast across the area, before
finally coming to an end from 10 to 13Z on Tuesday. After that,
low level, widespread cloud cover will finally begin gradually
clearing out from west to east over the remainder of the forecast
period. North to northeast winds will increase to between 10 and
20 kts this evening into the overnight. After an area of low
pressure moves through after midnight, the winds will shift to the
northwest behind it at similar speeds.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-104-106-108-111.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ087-088-
115-117-118-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...AR/GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
537 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow is possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening across
northern Nebraska, mainly near and north of Highway 20.
- Better chances for light snow across western Nebraska Thursday
afternoon through Friday morning.
- Above normal temperatures Tuesday will transition to below
normal by Friday. Temperatures will warm back up by Sunday and
Monday of next week.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
A weak surface pressure gradient was in place across the region
this afternoon with light winds. Variable cloudiness across
western Nebraska, with portions of north central Nebraska cloudy
while the south was mainly sunny. Mild temperatures at 3 pm CST
from 45 to 55 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 259 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
For tonight, A disturbance will move across the western Dakotas
and northern Nebraska. The latest CAMS including the HRRR and
RAP generate very light QPFs, mainly across Cherry County. Kept
a slight chance for light snow between 06Z-12z across northern
Cherry County. Lows tonight mostly in the mid 20s, with low 20s
from the eastern panhandle and the Platte River Valley.
Tuesday, A west-northwest flow aloft will continue. Highs
Tuesday were nudged up slightly across the south. Highs upper
40s to lower 50s, except mid 50s across the far southwestern
counties. Skies will become mostly sunny by afternoon.
Tuesday night, an upper trough will move into Colorado and
Wyoming. This will cause surface low pressure to deepen from
southeast Wyoming into eastern Colorado. mid-level
frontogenesis will develop across northeast Wyoming across
southwest into south central SD. A slight chance for light snow
is possible late Tuesday night across the northwest Sandhills.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
As the upper trough progresses eastward across South Dakota
during the day Wednesday, mid-level FGEN increases with a west
to east band of snow to focus near and north of Interstate 90.
There will be a tight gradient to the southward extent of the
snow, but have maintained 40 to 50 pops across northern Nebraska
on the southerly side of the system. A cold front will also
move into north central Nebraska with highs from 35 to 45. The
front is expected to push through southern areas by early
evening, so areas across the south should again reach 50 to 55.
A closed low, with a Northern Stream trough extending back to
the southwest across Montana will drop southeastward across the
region Thursday night into Friday. There is some model spread
in regards to where a mid-level frontogenetic band of snow will
materialize. Ensemble guidance suggests far southern South
Dakota and northern Nebraska has the higher probability of
receiving a few inches of snow. The current forecast has the
highest pops Thursday night from 50 to 70 percent. Model trends
will continue to be monitored.
The arctic airmass will bring the coldest temperatures to the
area Friday and Friday night with the coldest air heading toward
the Great Lakes and eastern Canada this weekend. The coldest
day for our area will be on Friday when highs will struggle to
reach the upper 20s across north central Nebraska. Lows Friday
night will be in the 8 to 10 above northwest Sandhills to the
low to mid teens southeast. Upper ridging return Saturday into
Sunday, with a zonal flow aloft Monday as an upper trough digs
across the West Coast. Highs by Sunday are expected to warm back
up to 45 to 55 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
VFR conditions are expected through most of the forecast
period. Lower cigs this evening should lift, however a few
locations across far northern Nebraska could see a brief period
of low clouds bringing MVFR conditions. Winds will be light and
variable tonight, then be out of the west to northwest around 5
to 10 kts on Tuesday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Gomez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
709 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front lingers across the area today then will lift
back north tonight. A strong area of low pressure will then lift
along the front late tonight and push offshore Tuesday. High
pressure builds across the area Wednesday and Thursday. A couple
of cold fronts with little to no moisture will push across the
area late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1900 Monday...No changes to the near term as forecast is
tracking well. Front currently draped E to W across the Nern
third of the FA will continue to slowly inch Nward.
Previous Disco...Strong mid-level closed low continues to push
across the lower MS River VAlley this afternoon with a deep
plume of Pacific moisture being pulled ahead of it and over much
of the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Frontogenetic
lift along a stalled frontal boundary, which has begun to
gradually inch back northward (now roughly from Hatteras
westward to New Bern and then along Highway 70), has continued
to support steady light to moderate rainfall a bit farther north
than this morning, with the Crystal Coast now in a relative dry
lull. Storm total rainfall is still on track to reach 2-3
inches.
Continued unsettled weather will continue tonight as a
deepening surface low currently over western TN lifts to our
north and west. The stalled frontal boundary will continue to
gradually lift north in tandem with increasing WAA, and while
the stratiform rain band will lift north with it, more showery
activity will fill in behind especially after 00z. Available
instability increases overnight - average SBCAPE of around 250
J/kg, although more bullish guidance has around 500 J/kg. There
is a small and very low-end risk of a tornado initially while
surface flow is southeasterly and hodographs feature low-level
looping, but the strongest instability will most likely be
overlapped by more unidirectional flow, favoring primarily gusty
winds in stronger storms. Primary risk window is after midnight
tonight through roughly 4-5 am.
Other concern is gusty winds, likely to develop early tomorrow
morning from west to east as drier air surges in aloft and lapse
rates steepen, tapping into a strong LLJ of 55-60 kt. The HRRR
in particular is showing a window of widespread gusts inland
reaching up to 40+ kt out of the southwest just before sunrise.
This is in line with most momentum transfer forecasts from hi-
res soundings, and leaned our forecast in that direction.
Because of this increase in winds, a Wind Advisory has been
issued for all of eastern NC. The increaes in winds will drive
coastal hazards along the Outer Banks...see the TIDES/COASTAL
FLOOD section for details.
Temperatures rise overnight before dropping quickly in rapidly
increasing CAA, with lows touching the low 50s area wide.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 350 PM Mon...Low pressure quickly exits the area tomorrow
morning and all areas are expected to be dry by sunrise. High
pressure will gradually build into the area from the southwest,
but the pinched pressure gradient keeps gusty conditions in
place with the strongest winds during the morning hours.
Lingering wrap-around moisture behind the upper low will keep
mostly cloudy conditions in place primarily north of Highway 264
while sunny skies prevail to the south, but all areas will be
under clear skies by nightfall. Highs will be similar to today,
in the upper 50s to low 60s inland and mid 50s across area
beaches.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...High pressure builds into the area
Wednesday into Thursday. Low pressure tracks north of the area
with a dry cold front pushing through the area Thursday night.
Weak high pressure builds in Friday with another potentially dry
front pushing through Saturday.
Wednesday through Monday...High pressure will build in from the
west Wednesday and Thursday and bringing dry conditions and
seasonable temps. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes
into New England late Thursday with the attendant cold front
pushing across ENC Thursday night, however moisture is lacking
and expect an increase in clouds but no precip. Weak high
pressure builds back in Friday but another system will push
across the area Saturday. Guidance has been trending dryer with
best forcing located north of the area and deeper moisture
remaining south of the area so we may see little to no precip
with this system as well. High pressure builds back into the
area on Sunday with a low pressure area tracking off the
Southeast coast early next week. There is considerable
uncertainty on how much if any precipitation will occur with the
series of weather systems this weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Tuesday/...
As of 1900 Monday..Rather unexpectedly, all TAF sites currently
showing VFR flight cats. Stalled frontal boundary currently
just N of all TAF sites will continue to slowly lift N as a warm
front this evening and tonight. This front will then be quickly
followed by a cold front moving east through the area late
tonight into Tuesday morning. Have backed off on the widespread
low CIGs/VIS for the next hours but have added some TEMPO groups
to cover possibility of the flight cats deteriorating quickly.
Once the warm front moves north, CIGs and VIS will improve
briefly, and the RA will become more scattered in coverage.
There will then be a renewed risk of SHRA, a few TSRA, and
reduced VIS as the cold front sweeps through. Behind the cold
front, deep mixing will lead to a period of gusty southwesterly
winds, with peak gusts expected to top out in the 30-40kt range.
A few gusts in excess of 40kt will be possible. If and where
TSRA develop, there will be the potential for enhanced wind
gusts as well. Lastly, just prior to the strong winds,
strengthening winds aloft will lead to a period of increased
LLWS concerns (primarily 03z-12z/Tuesday). Flight conditions
improve quickly through the day Tuesday after rain ceases around
sunrise.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Dry high pressure builds over the area
through the end of the week with continued VFR. There is
considerable uncertainty on how much if any precipitation will
occur with a series of weather systems this weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 1900 Monday...Have expanded as well as extended the marine
dense fog advisory to cover the remaining Nern waters/sounds.
Fog is expected to disperse as winds increase in the early
morning hours.
Previous Disco...Winds remain weak over area waters this
afternoon as stalled frontal boundary continues to wobble over
area waters, currently extending from Hatteras to the mouth of
the Pamlico River. Winds on either side of the boundary are
around 10 kt or less with seas around 3-4 feet. Conditions are
expected to rapidly deteriorate tonight as front lifts north and
deepening low pressure passes off to the north and west. The
strongest winds will occur after midnight with the strongest
mixing aloft, resulting in widespread southwesterly Gales before
sunrise Tue, veering west late morning and then northwesterly
in the afternoon and weakening quickly as the low exits to the
north. There is a low risk, mainly around dawn, of a few gusts
approaching Storm force over the outer offshore waters.
Seas rapidly increase early Tuesday into the afternoon with the
worst conditions likely across Raleigh Bay, where seas will top
out at around 10-13 feet.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Winds will be decreasing Tue night to NW
10-20 kt then NW 10-15 Wed as weak high pressure builds over the
waters. A dry cold front will cross the waters Thu night. Ahead
of the front SW winds will increase to 15-25 kt Thu night.
Winds shift to NW 10-20 kt behind the front early Fri and become
westerly 10-20 kt Sat.
Seas will subside to 5-7 ft by Tuesday night. Seas will then be
mostly 3-5 ft Wednesday through Friday, though will briefly
build up 5-7 ft across the northern and central waters in
response to stronger winds associated with the front Thursday
night.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 405 PM Monday...A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for
the Outer Banks north of Hatteras Inlet. A deepening low
pressure system will bring strong winds to the area tonight
through Tuesday with minor to moderate coastal flooding likely
to occur across soundside Outer Banks from Hatteras Inlet north
to Duck including Roanoke Island. Highest water levels are
expected across Hatteras Island between Frisco and Oregon Inlet
where both the pre-frontal SW winds and post- frontal W/WNW
winds will pile water up. 2-3 ft with local amounts up to 4 ft
of inundation possible with the highest levels occurring Tue
early afternoon.
Additionally, rapidly increasing surf will result in dangerous
beach conditions particularly for the beaches near Shackleford
Banks and those between Lookout and Hatteras. A High Surf
Advisory has been posted for these areas from early Tuesday
morning into the afternoon.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to noon EST Tuesday for NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
High Surf Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for NCZ196-
204-205.
Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for NCZ196-203>205.
Coastal Flood Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ131-135-137-
150-152-154-156-158-230-231.
Gale Warning from 6 AM to 2 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231.
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 2 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ135.
Gale Warning from 5 AM to 2 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ136-137.
Gale Warning from 6 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RM/SK/CEB
MARINE...SK/MS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
848 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
None of the models are doing a good job with the snow this
evening. A fast-moving low pressure center has already exited
Middle Tennessee and taken the cold front with it, and we are
watching the occluded front come through now. Although surface
temperatures remain above freezing, we are seeing numerous snow
reports just across the river in West Tennessee, and now some
reports are popping up in parts of Middle Tennessee. It appears
that a cold pool is accompanying the occluded front in our area;
temperatures in southern Kentucky are actually warmer than our
temperatures here. The onset of snow in the cold pool looks to be
forcing temperatures down faster than any of the models had
projected. Interestingly, the freezing level from the observed 00Z
sounding from OHX was 7.3 kft (way too warm for snow), but the
HRRR sounding for Waverly valid at 02Z brought the freezing level
down to around 1,400`, so the cold advection accompanying the
occluded front appears to be much more potent that even the
short-range models projected. Still, surface temperatures remain
above freezing, and will remain so for several more hours. It is
likely that the precipitation will outpace the freezing line, so
accumulations appear unlikely except for the Cumberland Plateau.
Despite this, we will keep the WSW in place for the time being
since snow is being observed in so many areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
Main concerns this forecast period include some thunderstorms
today and possible accumulation from brief, wet snowfall tonight.
We have already issued a precautionary Winter Weather Advisory
for many of our counties north of I-40 and along the Plateau.
After a quiet morning, showers with some embedded thunderstorms
will return through this afternoon. The thunder will accompany
enhanced downpours and perhaps locally gusty winds. Low pressure
will track directly over our area later this afternoon, so it
appears any severe storm risk for our area will be extremely low.
If any storms do perk up briefly, it would be over our southeast
including Coffee and Grundy counties.
After the surface low passes our area by 6 PM CST, colder air will
sweep in with gusty northwest winds. This will cause precipitation
to change over to rain/snow mix or wet snow. Snowflakes will
start in our northwest (Dover and Clarksville) around 8 PM this
evening, Metro and down I-65 between 10-11 PM, and Plateau
shortly after midnight. The window of opportunity for snow will
be short with most precipitation ending west of the Plateau by 1
AM and ending on the Plateau by 4 AM CST. Confidence on amounts is
very low with a lot of model uncertainty based around exact
surface temperatures and the location of the post frontal
deformation band precipitation. If the band pivots over a specific
area when temps are cold enough, snow amounts could over-
achieve. Otherwise, we think warm boundary layer temps will really
cut into the accumulation potential. Our general message is "up
to 1 inch, mainly on grassy areas, and mainly north of I-40".
Regardless of amounts, visibility may be very low during the
bursts of snow as gusty winds develop. Travel impacts should be
limited, so let`s not call off school or other plans til we see
what happens late this evening.
By daybreak Tuesday we should be precip free. There may be a few
slick spots on bridges and overpasses for the morning commute
with daybreak temperatures mostly 30-32. The good news is that
we`ll warm into the upper 40s and low 50s by Tuesday afternoon, so
any light snow accumulations should disappear very quickly.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
A surface high with weak mid level ridging will make for quiet
weather for midweek. After a seasonably cool day Tuesday, temps
will warm above normal for Wednesday and Thursday. The next front
is expected to bring scattered showers late Friday into early
Saturday, followed by a cool-down to slightly below normal temps
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
Expect messy flying weather across Middle Tennessee for the next
several hours. A line of heavy showers with embedded storms is
closing in on the Cumberland Plateau, so look for low ceilings and
reduced visibilities during the next couple of hours, along with
strong surface winds. The remainder of the mid state is getting a
temporary reprieve, but an occluded front will move across the
region during the evening, and so we can expect more showers with
the potential for a wintry mix, and also low ceilings
redeveloping. Fortunately, conditions will rapidly improve later
this evening and overnight as a fast-moving surface low pulls the
moisture out the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 34 53 34 61 / 100 0 0 0
Clarksville 31 52 34 60 / 100 0 0 0
Crossville 31 46 29 55 / 100 0 0 0
Columbia 31 53 32 61 / 90 0 0 0
Cookeville 31 48 32 56 / 100 0 0 0
Jamestown 29 47 30 55 / 100 0 0 0
Lawrenceburg 32 52 32 61 / 90 0 0 0
Murfreesboro 33 53 30 61 / 100 0 0 0
Waverly 30 51 33 60 / 100 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for Cheatham-Clay-
Cumberland-Dickson-Fentress-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Macon-
Montgomery-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Stewart-Sumner-
Trousdale-White.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose