Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/12/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
734 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Another dry and seasonably mild day Monday under mostly to
partly cloudy skies. A winter storm then impacts most of the
area late Monday night through Tuesday with snow resulting in
hazardous travel conditions for the morning commute and
potentially the evening commute, especially from the Greater
Capital District and to the south and east.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 7 PM...Stratus clouds blanket much of the local area. The
00Z/AlY sounding has a sharp inversion present around 900 mb.
Appears these clouds will remain for much of the night. Have
increased the cloud cover. Otherwise only some minor adjustments
were needed.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [4:24 PM]...While skies remained mostly
cloudy today, a weak northern stream shortwave tracking into
Michigan this afternoon resulted in some weak downstream ridging
over the Northeast and allowed warm air to be maintained aloft.
This translated into slightly above normal temperatures (albeit
not nearly has mild as yesterday) with highs reaching into the
low to mid 40s in the valley with even some upper 40s in the
mid- Hudson Valley while the higher terrain and hill towns are a
bit cooler in the mid to upper 30s.
Skies remain mostly cloudy skies tonight for areas from I-90
northward as zonal/westerly flow and a fetch off the lakes
continues along with additional weak lift from the incoming weak
shortwave tracking up through the St. Lawrence River Valley.
While this shortwave could result in some isolated some snow
showers for areas downwind of Lake Ontario with the HRRR even
bringing in some light showers into Herkimer County, we opted to
maintain a dry forecast given low impacts but will updated as
needed. Areas south of Albany should turn mostly clear as the
cirrus canopy escapes to our east so we adjusted low
temperatures downwards here into the mid-20s thanks to more
radiational cooling potential. Elsewhere where clouds will
likely be more prevalent, we should mid to upper 20s. Some may
stay around 30 if clouds are thick enough.
Dry and seasonably mild weather conditions expected on Monday
for those preparing for our upcoming winter storm. We start off
partly to mostly cloudy with stratocu expected from the Mohawk
Valley eastward into the Capital District and Berkshires as
zonal flow aloft maintains the fetch of moisture off the lakes.
Then, morning clouds should give way to increased afternoon
sunshine as broad ridging builds aloft in response to the
approaching southern stream shortwave and high pressure slips
into northern New England. Sfc winds shift to the north-
northwest allowing us to finally lose the westerly fetch off the
lakes. Areas south of I-90 should enjoy partly to even mostly
sunny skies through the day Monday. Otherwise, highs rise into
the mid to upper 40s in the valley with low to mid-30s Monday
afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Winter Storm Watches Upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings from 1
AM to 7 PM Tuesday for the mid Hudson Valley, eastern
Catskills, central and southern Taconics, southern Berkshire
County, and Litchfield Hills. Dangerous travel conditions
expected for the Tuesday morning and possibly Tuesday evening
commute...
Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from 1 AM to 7 PM Tuesday
for the Capital District, Schoharie Valley, central and eastern
Mohawk Valley, northern Taconics, northern Berkshires and
southern Vermont...
Confidence for an impactful yet fast moving winter storm for
late Monday night through Tuesday has increased enough for us to
upgrade Winter Storm Watches to Winter Storm Warnings mainly
for areas south of Interstate 90. The main challenge with this
event is the northern extent of the sharp snowfall gradient as
there remains uncertainty and large model spread among the
deterministic and especially the ensemble guidance. Given
ongoing uncertainties and the fact that we are still 36 hours
away from the start of this event, we chose to maintain the
Winter Storm Watches for the Capital District northward and will
continue to evaluate model trends.
Our potent cut-off southern stream shortwave is clearly evident
on the latest GOES16 water vapor imagery over the TX panhandle
this afternoon with a notable strong moisture fetch downstream
extending not only from the Caribbean Sea but even from the
eastern Pacific Ocean. This has resulted in widespread
convection over the Gulf Coast States today and the respective
latent heat release from this convection will play a key role in
how forthcoming model guidance handles the downstream ridge
over the eastern CONUS. Just how amplified this ridge becomes
will help determine just how strong the shortwave becomes and
potential interactions with a northern stream shortwave over the
Great Lakes. The cut-off low will track north and eastward
through the TN/MS Valley tomorrow reaching the mid-Atlantic
state by Monday evening. Strong cyclonic vorticity ahead of the
low combined with strong upper level divergence from a favorable
dual jet structure will support rapid cyclogenesis Monday night
into Tuesday as the sfc low tracks from the Delmarva northward
towards Long Island and Cape Code. Impressively, the low is
expected to deepen to sub-980hPa with some guidance showing this
as a borderline "bomb cyclone" deepening almost 24hPa within 24
hours between 00 UTC Tues and 00 UTC Wed. In addition, a strong
moisture fetch ahead this storm will likely extend from deep in
the Gulf up the East Coast with IVT anomalies progged to be 5
to 6 standard deviations above normal per the latest NAEFS.
The strong dynamics will support impressive forcing for ascent
and the development of a mesoscale snowband within the northwest
quadrant of our cyclone as FGEN within the 700 - 500hPa layer
intensifies late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Forecast
soundings show the classic cross hair signatures with strong
omega intersecting the dendritic snow growth zone Tues morning
so snowfall rates ranging 1 to 2 inches per hour are likely
within this band. Exactly where this band tracks is still a bit
uncertain but traditionally, we see the band develop a bit
displaced north and west of where model guidance shows the
strongest 700 - 500hPa FGEN. This would place the band mainly
between Poughkeepsie and Albany and the WPC snowband tracker
lines up with this thinking as well. SLRs during this event
should also be rather high ranging 13 to 15:1 leading to a
lighter/fluffy type of snow. Areas in the mid-Hudson Valley and
NW CT may be a bit lower closer to 10-12:1 given a bit more
marginal temperatures. Since we are dealing with a cut-off low,
the Kenyon CSTAR conceptual model for mesoscale snow band
research shows this matching up with a pivoting band structure
so even higher snowfall are possible and areas impacted by this
band will see the highest snowfall totals. The overall residence
time of the pivoting band, however, is rather short-lived since
this storm is progressive/fast moving and looks to mainly occur
Tuesday morning through midday Tuesday. This means hazardous
travel conditions for the Tuesday morning commute are likely,
especially from the Capital District southward.
Just far north the mesoscale band extends is still uncertain
and given that the warning level snow amounts are tied to the
positioning of the snow bands, there will likely be a sharp
northern cut-off near or just north of I-90. It is difficult to
nail down exactly where this gradient will occur but note that
if the band shifts further north and west or even south and east,
the axis of heaviest snowfall amounts will shift as well. This
is why there remains a large spread between the reasonable high
and low end probabilistic snowfall forecast.
By Tuesday afternoon, the heaviest snowfall should be exiting
into New England with snow ending from west to east by the
Tuesday evening commute. While most of the accumulating snow
should be over by the P.M commute, any uncleared walkways or
roadways will remain hazardous so continue to exercise caution.
In addition, northwest winds turn breezy as the snow ends
Tuesday afternoon given the cyclone is still intensifying off
shore. With gusts up 25 to 30mph, some blowing snow is possible
as well which can hamper clean-up efforts. Luckily, temperatures
should warm into the low to mid-30s which should help treated
surfaces stay wet.
Snow showers may return Tuesday night as the northern stream
shortwave tracks through the Northeast so additional light/minor
snow accumulations are possible with temperatures dropping into
the teens to low 20s. Thus, refreeze is likely overnight as
well.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upon the departure of the aforementioned system, high pressure
builds in at the surface with accompanying flat ridging aloft to
reinforce dry conditions for at least the beginning of the extended
period. Northwest flow will ensure temperatures start a bit below
normal with highs Wednesday in the upper 20s to low 30s across
larger valley areas and low to mid 20s or cooler above 1000 ft. As
ridging aloft and the subsequent high at the surface amplify
into Thursday, flow will become more westerly to southwesterly
which will gradually allow temperatures to rise closer to a more
seasonable range for mid February. Highs Thursday will
therefore span the low to mid 30s in valley areas with mid to
upper 20s in the mountains.
The end of the week will see a series of upper-level shortwaves
tracking through the region, bringing more chances for
precipitation across much of the region. Particularly Thursday
night into Friday morning, a surface low will track through the
Great Lakes and into upstate New York along with such a
disturbance. Scattered snow showers across the region will
develop as a result. Lingering trough- like flow will generate
additional ascent off the eastern Great Lakes to support
additional, more isolated snow showers heading into the weekend.
Friday will feature highs in the low to upper 30s with mid to
upper 20s above 1500 ft. Saturday will be the second coolest day
of the long term period with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s
and cooler in the mountains. Finally, Sunday will warm closer to
seasonable once again with highs in the low to upper 30s and
upper 20s in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z/Tuesday...MVFR clouds blanket much of the local
area and are impacting KALB and KPSF. The 00Z/AlY sounding has
a sharp inversion present around 900 mb. Appears these clouds
will remain for much of the night and they are expected to also
impact KGFL. The clouds are expected to break up Monday morning,
then VFR conditions for the rest of the TAF period. Cloud cover
will increase at KGFL Monday afternoon while the other sites
won`t see an increase until after 00Z/Tuesday.
Westerly flow weakening overnight. A light west-northwest flow
expected Monday through the day.
Outlook...
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SN.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SN...BS.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ001-
013.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
NYZ058>061-063>066.
Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
evening for NYZ040-047>054.
MA...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ025.
Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
evening for MAZ001.
VT...Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
evening for VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Speciale
NEAR TERM...IAA/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
920 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region through tonight. Low
pressure will organize along the Mid-Atlantic on Monday, move
south of the area on Tuesday, and exit into the North Atlantic
on Wednesday. High pressure builds in Thursday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9:20PM Update...There is a cold front now entering the St. John
Valley and pushing SE. Cold air advection is developing in the
wake of the front. Webcams and observations indicate 1 mile
moderate wet snow falling in Frenchville and other areas of the
St. John Valley. Expecting snow showers to continue developing
along and ahead of this front as it drifts south. Temperatures
will begin falling below freezing, this combined with very cold
subsurface temperatures...frost depth 13 inches here at the
office...will result in slick conditions in Northern Aroostook
County. Have issued an SPS to handle the concern of slick travel
conditions developing tonight. Otherwise, mainly low clouds
across the North, mainly north of Baxter region. Higher clouds
passing through across southern zones with some areas of clear
skies. Expecting a general trend of partly cloudy skies south
and mainly cloud north. Minor tweaks to the temps and dew points
based on the observational trends.
Previous Discussion...
Deep layered westerly flow aloft will persist tonight through
Monday. A cold front will cross northern areas tonight, and then
cross the remainder of the region early Monday.
The guidance for the past many cycles has been suggesting a
northwest to southeast oriented band of snow showers developing in
the wake of the cold front for northern areas. The CMC regional has
led the way highlighting this. Have been monitoring the latest
several runs of the HRRR today and it continues to suggest a
band developing across northern Aroostook county through early
this evening before waning overnight. This could result in
localized accumulations of an inch or two in some parts of the
county into this evening.
The modest cold advection behind the front should still allow
overnight lows across the north to drop a good 10 degrees colder
that last nights, but still several degrees above the normals
for this time of year.
West to northwest flow persists on Monday with mainly cloudy
skies north along with isolated to scattered snow showers, and
partly cloudy for Bangor and Downeast. Afternoon highs on Monday
will be a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler than those of todays.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Synoptic: A low pressure system will move up through the Mid-
Atlantic states and track off the southern New England coast
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. This low will deepen as
it travels eastward, continuing to strengthen as it crosses
south of the Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia and pushes out into
the North Atlantic.
Model Guidance: Recent guidance has come into better agreement
with the northern extent of the precip shield, with the ECMWF
trending southwards slightly and the last couple runs of the CMC
moving steadily northwards to meet the GFS solution in the
middle. This agreement has only just been realized with the 12z
runs, but gives better confidence (50 to 60%) of where will
receive measurable snowfall (primarily the Downeast region,
especially along the immediate coast).
Threats:
-Most snowfall is expected along the immediate coast, with
current forecast being a chance (50%) of around 3 to 5 inches.
This accumulation is largely dependent on the exact low track,
as there is a steep gradient to the north where snowfall drops
to zero, so any shifts in low track by a few miles could lead
to amounts increasing or decreasing from here. Measurable
snowfall will likely not begin until Tuesday afternoon, as a
layer of mid-level dry air between 800 and 600 mb will need to
saturate prior to accumulating snowfall onset.
-Winds will remain breezy during the event itself, but will
rapidly increase behind the low passage Tuesday night into
Wednesday, where gusty winds up to 30 mph will persist. Since
snow will be of fluffier consistency, especially through the
second half of the event with SLRs approaching 20:1, there
could be some patches of blowing and drifting snow through the
day on Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure will return through the end of the
week, with a tight pressure gradient aloft Wednesday night
persisting gusty winds, but this gradient will relax into the
day on Thursday as the high pressure continues to further
establish. A weak warm front may lift across the area on Friday,
bringing a few snow showers across the area, but there remains
timing and strength uncertainty across guidance at this time
with this feature.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 00z TAFs. IFR at FVE and MVFR at CAR. -SHSN and -SHRA
occurring and expecting a trend to -SHSN for FVE, CAR and PQI
over the next few hours. Expecting MVFR at all northern sites
with VFR high cigs at southern terms. Generally light W-NW
winds.
Previous Discussion...
VFR for BGR/BHB through Monday. W to NW wind 5 to 10 kt tonight and
10 to 15 kt on Monday.
VFR conditions can predominantly be expected at the Aroostook
county terminals through Monday. Scattered snow showers are
expected to develop this evening, with potential for brief
MVFR/IFR conditions in any snow showers. Highest confidence of
occurrence vicinity KFVE/CAR. W to NW wind 5 to 10 kt tonight
and 10 to 15 kt on Monday.
SHORT TERM:
Mon night: VFR across all terminals. Light NW winds.
Tues - Tues night...VFR at Northern terminals. MVFR/IFR possible
late Tues afternoon into Tues night at Downeast terminals and
possibly BGR with -SN. NE winds 5 to 10 kts shifting NW 10 to
15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kts Tues night.
Wed - Thurs...VFR likely across all terminals. NW winds 15 to 20
kt gusting 25 to 30 kts.
Fri...VFR likely across most terminals, though brief MVFR
possible at BGR/BHB in -SHSN. NW winds 10 to 15 kts gusting to
20 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through Monday.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels through Monday night. Winds will build above gale force
during the day Tuesday with a coastal storm tracking south of
the waters. Gale force wind gusts may last into Wednesday night
behind the system, mainly over the outer waters. Wave heights
will be 5 to 7 feet Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Conditions likely remain above SCA levels into Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides are expected through Tuesday. While
neither significant storm surge nor wave action is expected
through Monday, tides have been running over one foot higher
than predictions for the past several cycles and we expect the
trend to continue into Monday.
The threat of a more robust coastal flooding event at the 1 pm
Tuesday high tide has increased with a storm surge over 1 foot
expected to combine with still high astronomical tides. Strong
northeast winds on the coast will help generate more wave
action and increase the risk of impact on vulnerable
infrastructure such as the Deer Isle Causeway.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning
for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
Near Term...TWD/Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...TWD/Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...TWD/Sinko/AStrauser
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
549 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A storm system will bypass the region well to the south Monday
night with dry conditions persisting into midweek.
- Snow and rain chances increase later in the week with near
average late winter temperature conditions evolving into next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
Diurnal heating eroded the low cloud deck across metro Detroit this
afternoon. There is still a region of MVFR stratus extending from SW
Lower Mi across the Flint and Tri Cities region. Recent ACARS
soundings over srn Lower Mi still show a fairly deep low level
inversion. There are indications in recent RAP soundings that some
expansion of these clouds will occur post sunset, which under the
westerly flow should be ducted inland back across the remainder of
Se Mi. The stratus is then likely to hold through late tonight
before a little push of drier air arrives from the northwest, likely
supporting a clearing trend Mon morning.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024
DISCUSSION...
Strong southern stream shortwave emerging over west Texas today will
take a shallow track trajectory into the eastern CONUS early in the
week as it encounters strongly confluent upper level flow between
mean upper troughing over eastern Canada in the northern stream and
the southwesterly subtropical plume arcing over strong upper ridging
over the Caribbean region. This track will keep precipitation well
south of the region as this system makes its closest approach Monday
night.
A northern stream shortwave digging quickly through the region in
behind this southern system may bring a few lake effect flurries
Tuesday, but the main phasing of these streams will hold off until
the storm center reaches the east coast. Canadian high pressure will
build into the area through the middle of the week with a transitory
shortwave upper ridge also translating east-southeast through the
area Wednesday. This will maintain quite conditions as temperatures
settle back from the lower 40s Monday to mid/upper 30s Tuesday into
Wednesday as the southern fringe of a polar airmass seeps into the
Great Lakes.
The next series of northern stream shortwaves sweep back into the
area from Thursday on into next weekend. Medium range models vary
considerably on the configuration of these shortwaves and this leads
to considerable uncertainty in determining their impact on regional
weather later this week. In general, expect increase snow (and rain)
shower chances as the first of these waves sweep through the region
Thursday with continued unsettled weather conditions then persisting
into next weekend.
While it is too early to discern if any of these waves (and any
southern stream counterparts) will evolve into a more significant
winter storm system, it does appear likely that temperatures
conditions, as a whole, will trend back into a more typical late
winter scenario as each passing wave allows for some additional
penetration of polar/arctic air south into the Great Lakes from
Canada with lower 30s common by next weekend for high temperatures.
MARINE...
Weak high pressure continues to expand into the Great Lakes through
the rest of the day today. Gentle westerly winds remain in place,
with some parts of northern Lake Huron seeing gusts up above 15
knots through tonight. Weak clipper moves in tonight, producing some
snow showers overnight, but will quickly move out of the area.
Shortwave brings a low pressure system through to the southeast of
the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Although confidence is reasonable that
the center of the low and the associated precipitation will miss the
DTX CWA, it is possible that a slight northern shift will result in
some precipitation in the southernmost marine zones. A second system
moving in Thursday into Friday will provide better chances for
precipitation, accompanied by elevated northwesterly winds and
waves.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...DG
MARINE.......BC
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
539 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet and seasonably mild weather will continue into the
middle of the upcoming week.
- Chances for light lake effect snow in far northern Wisconsin
at times throughout the week. No major impacts are expected.
- Chance of accumulating snow Wednesday night into Thursday,
especially south of highway 29. Amounts are still uncertain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Monday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a sharp
but moisture starved shortwave crossing the western Great Lakes
early this afternoon. While the strongest height falls have been
north of Wisconsin, scattered flurries brushed far northern parts
of the state so far today. Otherwise, a band of low clouds with
ceilings of 2500-4000 ft is accompanying the trough. An area of
brief clearing trails the trough within a region of subsidence.
Then further west, clouds are returning over the Dakotas and
northwest Minnesota within a warm advection pattern ahead of the
next shortwave trough. Focus of this forecast mainly revolves
around clouds and temps.
Precipitation and clouds: The band of low clouds will be in the
process of departing northeast Wisconsin by the start of the
evening, which will leave most of the evening with mostly clear
skies. Warm advection moves in from the west from late evening
into the overnight as shortwave energy moves into the Lake
Superior region. Clouds will return into northern WI during this
time, with saturation potentially deep enough for flurries or
light snow over far northern WI. Little to no accumulations are
expected.
As cold advection returns to northern WI behind a weak surface
low, clouds are expected to surge southeast on Monday with some
help from daytime heating. Therefore look for increasing cloud
through the day. Veering wind profiles will bring light snow
showers into the Vilas county snow belt by late in the afternoon.
Temperatures: Low temps may occur this evening when skies are
clear before becoming steady with an influx of cloud cover. Highs
on Monday will be slightly warmer with readings ranging from the
lower 30s to around 40 degrees.
Long Term...Monday Night Through Sunday
A weak upper trough and low level cold advection over Lake
Superior will produce some lake effect snow showers in far north
central Wisconsin Monday night into Tuesday. An inch or less is
expected. An upper trough approaching from the Plains could bring
some snow to the area Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The
ECMWF ans Canadian models have a surface low intensifying as it
moves from southwest Kansas to northern Illinois, while the GFS
has a weaker inverted trough. The ECMWF and Canadian forecasts
would produce several inches of snow south of highway 29, while
the GFS would just have flurries. Models should have a better idea
in the next day or so.
Mild weather will continue through Thursday, with colder air
arriving by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 530 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Skies have cleared with the departure of a short-wave trough, but
clouds were already approaching ahead of another short-wave
moving through northern MN. Expect a mix of low and mid-level
clouds with this next system, with potential for MVFR ceilings and
scattered light snow showers or flurries in far northern WI,
including the RHI TAF site. Low clouds may eventually work their
into the other TAF sites later Monday afternoon, as winds turn
northwest.
Winds will back southwest tonight, then increase to around 10 kts
and veer W-NW on Monday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC/RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1003 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Rain showers continue in the southern tier of our counties in
north Mississippi. Thunder has remained mostly to our south as
lapse rates have continued to stabilize through the evening. A
brief lull in precipitation elsewhere across the Mid-South is
expected until near sunrise tomorrow.
A strengthening surface low will cross the Mid-South ahead of an
upper level low. The surface low should clear the area by evening
tomorrow, but followed closely by a deep trough associated with
the upper level low. Due to the timing of the system, temperatures
will begin to drop into the 30s resulting in a slight chance of
snow showers across northern sections of the Mid-South. Any
accumulation would be the result of a wet snow on elevated and
grassy surfaces. We will monitor this evolving situation.
DNM
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 157 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Several rounds of showers are expected across the Midsouth this
afternoon, tomorrow and into tomorrow night. A few thunderstorms
are possible, mainly in north Mississippi. Rain may briefly change
over to sleet or snow early tomorrow night in far northern
portions of the Midsouth as precipitation is ending. Tuesday
should be cool but dry. Morning lows should be near freezing area
wide. Temperatures will rebound quickly for the remainder of the
work week. Expect highs in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. A cold
front will bring us another round of showers Friday followed by a
one of the coolest weekends we have seen since mid-January.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Another round of showers are currently moving across the Midsouth
as a weak disturbance moves through southwest flow across the
lower and middle Mississippi River Valley. A cold front has pushed
south of the area, although Monroe county, MS remains 59 degrees
with a dew point of 59. Numerous strong to severe thunderstorms
are ongoing across central Mississippi and a few lightning strikes
are occurring north of the front in north Mississippi. Any
thunderstorms in this region will be elevated so they should not
pose much of a severe threat, but some hail cannot be ruled out.
Additional rainfall totals this afternoon into Monday night are
expected to range from one quarter to one half of an inch. Due to
recent heavy rain, some ponding of water on roads and in low
lying areas is possible, but the threat of any flooding rain looks
to be diminishing.
Rain and general thunderstorms will continue tomorrow as an upper
low approaches the middle Mississippi River Valley near Memphis.
A strengthening surface low will precede the upper level low
tracking from north Mississippi into Middle Tennessee by midday
Monday. As a result, the coverage of thunderstorms should diminish
tomorrow afternoon. As the low strengthens and the pressure
gradient tightens, north winds will increase across northern
portions of the Midsouth. Late tomorrow, as the trough/cutoff low
shifts east of the Midsouth, conditions look favorable for a wake
low across the region, although these are typically very difficult
to forecast. Nevertheless, expect a windy afternoon. Gradient
winds should increase to 15-20mph with gusts to 25mph and if a
wake low does develop a Wind Advisory may become necessary.
Rain should come to an end early tomorrow night, but may briefly
transition over to sleet or snow in far northeast Arkansas, the
Missouri Bootheel and near the Kentucky state line as
precipitation is ending. The HRRR is a bit cooler and thus has a
broader area of light snow across much of west Tennessee.
Impactful accumulations are unlikely, especially since we have
been so warm for several days.
Dry but cool conditions return to the Midsouth late Monday night.
Tuesday morning low temperatures are expected to be near freezing
across all of the Midsouth with highs in the low to middle 50s.
Dry conditions should continue through at least Thursday as
transient high pressure shifts across the region.
Rain should to return to the Midsouth by Friday. Two storm systems
will play roles in the forecast Friday into the weekend; a
positively tilted trough oriented from the Great lakes into
Colorado and a southern stream trough over Texas. The northern
stream system will usher a cold front through the area Friday and
a Gulf Low will develop on the east coast of Texas. Details with
this complex setup are difficult to pin down yet, and it does not
look like winter conditions are likely, but expect a round of rain
showers Friday through Saturday. Much colder but dry conditions
are expected Saturday into Sunday featuring lows in the 30s
Saturday and 20s on Sunday.
30/Sirmon
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
IFR/MVFR conds along and south of I-40 will gradually lower to
IFR/LIFR overnight and spread north on Monday as a strong upper
low approaches. SHRAs will expand across the Mid-South later
tonight into Monday as the upper low tracks across the area. A few
TSRAs are possible but confidence at any one site is low. There
is the possibility that rain could mix with or change to snow at
JBR late in the day. NE winds around 10 kts will shift to NW and
become gusty as the system low moves through.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MSZ001-007-008-011-012-
020.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...SJM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow likely midweek.
- Turning colder late week into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Mild & quiet weather continues for the next few days as the
region remains in a weak flow regime with no weather systems
anywhere near the Upper Midwest. Afternoon highs will again be
around 40 Monday & Tuesday with periods of Sun & clouds during
the day. A weak wave moving over the region could generate some
very light snow overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but
better snow chances develop Wednesday evening as a more
organized shortwave skirts along the US/Canada border.
Confidence continues to increase in the area actually seeing
some precipitation from this system, with the only reason for
PoPs in the 40-50% range being the continued discrepancy among
solutions in for the timing of the system. Precipitation will
likely begin as rain for a few hours late Wednesday
afternoon/evening, before changing over to snow as temperatures
cool Wednesday night. Precipitation will be light across most of
the area, but a swath of higher QPF amounts looks likely to set
up somewhere across southern Minnesota & northern Iowa. Amounts
could approach 0.4-0.5" within this band, which could
potentially result in a swath of 3-6" of snow by Thursday
morning deepening on how long it takes the initial rain to
changeover to snow. Elsewhere to the north of this enhanced
area of QPF, light snow accumulation of around an inch or two
looks possible.
Colder air filters into the region behind this system, which
will likely bring our first chance for below-normal
temperatures since mid-January. This won`t be an Arctic
outbreak by any means, with daytime highs generally in the upper
20s & overnight lows in the single digits to teens. The colder
temperatures will last for a few days into early next week, but
a return to warmer temperatures looks possible for the last week
of February.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Quiet weather tonight, but attention for Monday turns to the
threat of the return of MVFR cigs dropping down out of northern
MN tonight. RAP soundings show potential for some MVFR cigs by
the late morning at all MPX terminals, but HRRR soundings show
RHs at the top of the boundary layer remaining pretty dry until
Monday night. HREF probs for MVFR cigs max out at 70% at AXN, so
that`s why this is the one location we introduced some MVFR
cigs. For everywhere else we`ll wait and see how widespread the
MVFR cigs become overnight in northern MN before getting more
aggressive with bringing them to more of the MPX terminals.
KMSP...Though a VFR forecast was continued there is a low chance
(20%) that MSP sees MVFR cigs as early as 16z, though MVFR cig
threat doesn`t really look to ramp up until Monday night.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...Chc MVFR cigs in mrng. Wind NW 5 kts.
WED...Chc MVFR cigs. Chc -SN late. Wind SW 5-15 kts bcmg WNW.
THU...Chc MVFR early. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
533 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
So far through the early to mid afternoon, most of the reports and
pictures show snow accumulating on the vegetation and only minor
accumulations on the roads. It appears to be a much different story
to our west in the Texas Panhandle where a more persistent area of
snow has lasted for many hours.
Recent runs of the RAP track the mid-level low across our Texas
counties this afternoon and into southern and central Oklahoma
during the evening. Strong lift will be maximized along and
northeast of this feature (Vernon, Texas to Lawton to Chickasha
and perhaps OKC. Within this area, the dominate precipitation
type should be snow which will lower temperatures to around 32.
Snowfall accumulations will mainly be on vegetation etc. but if
slushy accumulations start on roads further accumulation will
occur while snowfall rates remain high.
Higher snowfall amounts are anticipated from Hardeman/Foard
counties in Texas into Comanche and Caddo counties in Oklahoma.
4-6 inch totals are possible with most of the accumulation on
vegetation, cars etc. However, it is possible that this axis may
need to be shifted a little east with perhaps higher amounts.
In central Oklahoma including a good part of the OKC area, it appears
the most likely time for impactful snowfall and potential impacts
will occur from roughly 7 pm to 1 am Monday, perhaps a little
later.
As the low moves into eastern Oklahoma during the early part of the
overnight hours, wrap around snow will continue to be possible
mainly along and east of Interstate 35. A little unsure if rates
will remain high enough for snow to accumulate more.
Clouds are expected to decrease across western Oklahoma and western
north Texas during the overnight period. Although the wind will
remain a little breezy this should allow temperatures to fall into
the upper 20s. This may allow some freezing of slushy roads or where
puddles remain.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Dry weather is expected to prevail for the upcoming work week. A
decent cold front is forecast to push across Oklahoma and northern
Texas around Friday which will increase the chance of rain and
perhaps thunderstorms in southern Oklahoma.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Rain and snow will continue through the forecast period. A
transition to more SN will occur later this evening across
southwestern and central OK reducing visbys further. Cigs should
also drop to LIFR during the heavier snow after 03Z. This will
mainly occur over OKC, OUN, and LAW. Winds will remain breezy from
the north until they begin to decrease early Monday AM (after
12Z).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 31 44 27 55 / 90 30 0 0
Hobart OK 28 46 25 54 / 80 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 33 51 29 62 / 80 10 0 0
Gage OK 25 53 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 32 52 29 59 / 50 10 0 0
Durant OK 35 53 32 61 / 80 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for OKZ013-019-020-
025-026-028>032-040>042.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
OKZ014>018-039-044.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for OKZ021>024-
027-033>038.
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ086-
088.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for TXZ083>085-
087.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...03
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
918 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is higher confidence in a transition to wet snow on the
backside of a departing system late Monday into Monday night.
Minor snow accumulation is possible, with up to 1 to 2 inches
where a narrow heavy band of snow occurs. Locally higher
amounts are possible. Pavements will be highly variable with
some slushy accumulations. A Winter Weather Advisory is now in
effect for portions of the region.
- Temperatures quickly moderate through the second half of the
week before returning to near normal by the weekend.
- A weak disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers early
Thursday morning, followed by a better risk late Friday night
into Saturday morning as a cold front moves through.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Tweaked existing forecast a bit. Issued an SPS to highlight the
contingency for some accumulating snow south of the current
advisory area. Still think the most likely solution is
temperatures too warm for snow accumulation both in the air and
on the ground. However the snow rates provided by the NAM and
some high-res guidance is high enough in dynamical cooling amid
extremely strong large scale ascent that its a contingency that
deserves a bit of attention going forward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
A storm system remains on track to impact the FA on Monday as a 500
mb shortwave ejects over the southern plains. Sfc low pressure
develops across the lower Mississippi River Valley tonight, bringing
a few light rain showers mainly across western Kentucky. Otherwise,
categorical NBM PoPs spread north Monday morning into Monday
afternoon with cyclogenesis over Kentucky. By late Monday into
Monday evening, rain will begin to mix with and transition to wet
snow as the cold conveyor belt begins to ramp up on the backside of
the aformentioned low. Overall, model guidance has a better handle
on the latent heat that supports greater potential for snow across
the FA before tapering off late Monday night. Did adjust hourly
temps with a blend of the HREF/GFS as the NBM still seemed a bit to
warm given a robust 850 mb thermal gradient and lift through the DGZ
to support dynamic cooling.
As for impacts, there is increasing confidence in seeing minor snow
accumulation across portions of southeast Missouri, southern
Illinois, and western Kentucky. However, the CAMs differ quite a bit
with the placement of a narrow mesoscale band of heavy snow that
will be capable of producing up to 1 to 2 inches of snow with
locally higher amounts. Where heavier snow occurs, highly variable
slushy pavement accumulations will be possible. After collaboration
with our WFO neighbors, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory.
Should note confidence in the advisory is low as any impacts will be
contingent on placement. Any shift north or south will make a huge
difference in seeing minor impacts or no impacts at all. In fact,
the 18z HRRR has shifted even more south into western Kentucky,
which is also supported by the 12z deterministic GFS/ECMWF. For this
reason, adjustments to the advisory will likely be needed when we
can pinpoint the deformation zone better. Snowfall rates between 1
to 2 inches an hour are also possible and will lead to poor
visibility and slippery road conditions. These rates are heavy
enough to overcome warm pavement temps. Again, cannot stress enough
these impacts will be very location dependent, similar to seeing a
thunderstorm.
After the storm system departs, mainly tranquil weather can be
expected through the remainder of the week as temps quickly rebound
into the 50s/60s. NBM still has a slight chance of pcpn progged late
Wednesday night into Thursday as a shortwave passes by to the north.
Additional showers, possibly mixed with a few wet snow flakes are
possible late Friday night into Saturday morning as a cold front
moves through the FA. Model guidance still shows southern stream
energy remaining suppressed due to split flow. More seasonable temps
can be expected after fropa.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Quiet weather is expected tonight through Monday morning, but
conditions will deteriorate Monday afternoon as an area of low
pressure moves through the Mid-South. This system will bring MVFR
cigs and vsbys under moderate to locally heavy precipitation
activity (mainly rain, but some snow mixing in is possible late
in the period at CGI). Light NE winds AOA 5 kts tonight will
increase from the N-NE Monday afternoon, sustained at 10-15 kts
with gusts of 20-25 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Monday to midnight CST
Monday night for ILZ081>091.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Monday to midnight CST
Monday night for MOZ076-086-087-100-107.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /6 PM EST/ Monday to 6
AM CST /6 AM EST/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday
for KYZ014-015-018>020.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JGG
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DWS