Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/03/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
817 PM MST Fri Feb 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories continue
for portions of Carbon, Albany, Converse, Platte, and Laramie
counties. Warnings in the mountains begin this evening, then
additional Warnings and Advisories go into effect overnight
to Saturday morning and continue through Sunday afternoon.
- Widespread fog possible in the High Plains tonight through
Saturday morning. A Dense Fog Advisory may be warranted later
this evening for visibility under a quarter mile for an
extended period of time into Saturday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM MST Fri Feb 2 2024
As briefed by the day shift forecasters, fog has become
widespread across the Nebraska Panhandle, with visibilities
already down to one-quarter mile at Scottsbluff, Kimball and
Sidney. We expect this widespread fog to spread westward
overnight across much of southeast Wyoming along and east of
I-25, and also over the Southern Laramie Range foothills west of
Cheyenne. The HRRR graphics show this well. Therefore, we have
opted to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for the aforementioned
locations until 9 AM Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Feb 2 2024
Currently...Backdoor cold front continues to slowly edge
westward. Currently along a line from Lusk to Pine Bluffs this
afternoon. Low stratus east of the front back near Ogallala to
Crescent Lake to Gordon Nebraska. SUrface low to our southwest
has moved from central Utah...into western Colorado through the
morning and is now located near Grand Junction. Inverted surface
trough from this low being analyzed north of the low into Carbon
County. Widespread rain and higher elevation snow being
reported along and west of this low across northeast
Utah...northwestern Colorado and western Wyoming this
afternoon. Starting to get reports from the SNOTEL sites in the
Snowy and Sierra Madre of accumulating SWE...so forecast looks
on track so far.
Hires HRRR and RAP guidance showing precipitation continuing to
increase in coverage and intensity late this afternoon into the
evening hours across Carbon County. By 01Z or so...precipitation
begins filling in across the I-80 Corridor from Pine Bluffs to
Laramie to include the south Laramie Range. By 06Z or so...see
another band of rain developing over the Nebraska Panhandle that
moves north to cover most of the Panhandle into Niobrara County.
GFS forecast soundings across the Panhandle and here at Cheyenne
forecasting a favorable fog profile tonight into Saturday
morning. Latest HRRR aviation guidance showing widespread LIFR
conditions near the Colorado stateline...spreading north into
the Panhandle and along the Interstate 80 corridor in southeast
Wyoming after 02Z. Observations out in Nebraska reporting
visibility down near Ogallala. Once this stratus moves into
higher elevations in upslope flow...looks like a good bet for
dense fog development. Evening shift will need to keep an eye on
a possible widespread dense fog advisory. Did expand fog
coverage in the weather forecast for this evening. Fog may lift
some once the precipitation begins...while areas not seeing
precipitation likely to stay down.
GFS and ECMWF continue to show a closed 700mb negatively tilted
low in the area of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle area for
Saturday late morning. Areas east of the Laramie Range in fairly
deep southeasterly flow...with wrap around moisture being
forecast in this southeast flow over the southern Panhandle into
Laramie County. This low slowly moves east into northern Texas
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Wrap around moisture fairly
widespread across the Laramie Range and central CWA in this
upslope flow. Precipitation finally begins to end early Sunday
morning as low moves into central Texas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Feb 2 2024
An unsettled weather pattern continues into next week across
the western CONUS. By Sunday evening, the unusual closed low
responsible for this weekend`s precipitation will be near the
Louisiana Gulf Coast, but the impressive moisture plume may
still be connected to the upstream trough enough to keep clouds
streaming through the area. However, this tap is finally closed
Sunday night, and the ridge quickly consolidates itself over the
central US. A potent trough plowing into California on Sunday
will support a downstream amplification of the ridge over the
southwest CONUS, which guidance supports merging with the
remnants of the Rex block over the northern Plains. This will
happen fairly quickly, leading to a strong rebound in
temperatures as sunshine returns to the area on Monday. Ensemble
mean 700-mb temperatures climb back above 0C by 00z Tuesday,
and remain positive through early Wednesday. Highs some 10+F
warmer than average will return to the picture on Monday, and
then push a few degrees warmer on Tuesday even as cloud cover
streams back in from the west. Record highs don`t look likely,
but a nice, albeit brief, warm spell is expected. Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will also boost wind speeds over
western portions of the CWA typically favored by SW flow. The
probability for high winds is still fairly low (about 20-30% for
portions of Carbon and Converse counties), but expect at least
a breezy to windy period for these areas. Breezy southerlies may
spread into the high plains, but this looks modest at this
time.
The slow moving west coast trough gradually moves inland Monday into
Tuesday. By Tuesday night, most guidance depicts an impressively
strong atmospheric river flowing out of the SSW across the Four
Corners region. NAEFS mean integrated water vapor transport values
exceed the 90th percentile of climatology Tuesday night, but mainly
only in south central Wyoming. The mountains of Colorado will likely
block most of our area outside of Carbon county from this moisture
plume. Still, expect snow showers to return to the Sierra Madre
range on Tuesday, increasing in intensity and spreading eastward
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The Sierra Madres are likely to be the
clear winner with this event, as the NW to SE orientation of the
range will be more effective at extracting moisture from SSW flow
while the Snowy range and points east may be more shadowed. Ensemble
mean QPF for the Sierra Madre range is around 0.75 to 1.0", and
about 0.5 to 0.75" in the Snowy range at this time. Thus, another
round of mountain headlines looks likely. The precipitation signal
over the plains is much muddier. The only agreement between models
is that this will be a messy system. Ensemble mean QPF for the high
plains is generally around 0.1" still, but there is quite a spread
with 20-30% of members still showing a mostly dry ejection of the
trough. There is good agreement now on this remaining a positively
tilted open wave, which should limit moisture and lift over the
plains. In terms of the official forecast, have rain showers
quickly switching to snow showers by Thursday AM, but PoPs generally
in the 20-40% range for the lower elevations through Thursday due to
timing differences.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 450 PM MST Fri Feb 2 2024
A Pacific storm system is expected to move east of the southern
Rockys tonight and over the southern high plains on
Saturday. Wrap-around moisture associated with the storm is forecast
to impact all terminals over southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska
while bring rain, snow, and possibly dense fog through late
Saturday afternoon.
HAZARD/WEATHER TRENDS: Complicated Aviation forecast tonight and
into Saturday with fog and rain showers changing to snow down to
elevations of 5000-5500 feet. Fog will develop between now (00z) and
06z late this evening across the western Nebraska terminals and
KCYS, with IFR and LIFR conditions likely. Dense fog is most likely
at KAIA, KSNY, and KCYS. Fog is not expected at KLAR and KRWL at
this time due to localized downslope winds, but will continue to
monitor this evening.
Occasional rain showers will develop and move northwest this evening
and overnight...which may briefly lift the fog and improve VIS
briefly at times. Otherwise, any light rain will gradually change to
snow for KRWL, KLAR, and KCYS late tonight and early Saturday
morning. Snow will become heavy at times Saturday afternoon with
LIFR conditions possible. Precipitation type should stay a light to
moderate rain for the western Nebraska terminals since they should
be well above freezing, but IFR conditions are still expected due to
low CIGS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST Saturday for WYZ102-107-108-
117>119.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 6 PM MST Sunday
for WYZ103-106-118.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST Sunday for WYZ104-105-
109-111-113-115-117.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MST Sunday for WYZ110-116.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MST Sunday for WYZ112-114.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST Saturday for NEZ002-003-
019>021-054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
701 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Sunday Morning/
Showers and isolated storms via warm air advection remain ongoing
this evening ahead of our main event to our west. The broken
lines of storms along the Pacific front/dryline will continue to
grow upscale into a more singular line as the negatively tilted
trough detaches and forms a closed upper low. The line of storms
is progged to breach our western counties within the next hour.
Our greatest severe threat will be when the line first enters our
CWA to around the US-281 corridor as mid-level lapse rates and
instability are at their highest (with regards to RAP analysis).
Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be
possible. As the line continues towards the I-35 corridor, severe
storms will continue to be possible, though instability will be on
the downward slide. The line will blow through the I-35 corridor
between 11PM-1AM.
Another concern with the line of showers and storms is the
potential for flooding for areas east of I-35. With present moist
soils, additional most likely rainfall accumulations of 1-1.5"
will increase the flooding threat overnight into tomorrow morning
for low-lying and flood-prone areas. Elsewhere (generally west of
I-35), expect less than an inch of rainfall. The line will
finally exit the region near daybreak.
A much quieter forecast is in store for the weekend. Saturday
afternoon will feature highs in the 60s. Cloud cover will begin
to clear out throughout the day on Saturday from W to E, however
wrap-around moisture from the lagging upper low will usher in
additional cloud cover into Sunday morning. Sunday morning lows
will bottom out in the 40s region-wide.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 213 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024/
/Saturday Night Through Next Friday/
By Sunday morning, the elongated center of a deep upper level low
will continue sliding beneath a broad upper ridge/high located
over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This upper low will slowly
advance southeastward towards the Gulf Coast on Sunday as upper
level ridging builds into the Desert Southwest. Though most
locations will enjoy some dry time Saturday afternoon and night,
low level moisture lingering north and east of the surface low`s
center will wrap around and move back into our northeastern zones
Sunday, bringing additional low rain chances to these areas as the
low shifts slowly overhead.
The tight pressure gradient wrapping around the southwestern
flank of the departing surface low will allow gusty west-northwest
winds to spread across the state overnight into early Sunday.
These winds are expected to reach our western and southwestern
zones just before daybreak Sunday and peak through the early
afternoon. Though sustained wind speeds of 20-25 mph and gusts up
to 35 mph will be possible in a few locations in Central Texas,
the spatial coverage of these conditions is too limited to warrant
the issuance of a Wind Advisory at this time.
Breezy north-northwest winds will prevail through Monday
afternoon, when surface high pressure should finally begin
building across the region. By Tuesday evening, the surface high
will slide east of the FWD forecast area allowing onshore flow to
return. Dry conditions will prevail through mid week with daytime
temperatures creeping back up into the mid 60s. Ridging aloft will
eventually give way to an upper trough advancing eastward from
the Pacific coast. Afternoon highs in some areas will reach the
lower 70s Thursday afternoon as surface winds veer to the
southwest in response to pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies.
There will likely be a few opportunities for precipitation
beginning Thursday and continuing through the end of the current
forecast period (and beyond) as this progressive pattern brings a
series of shortwave troughs across the central/southern Plains.
12
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
Abysmal flying conditions are expected to continue through
tomorrow morning.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across
the TAF sites this evening in advance of the main line of showers
and storms. While some see-sawing of cigs has occurred, prevailing
MVFR cigs will continue through this evening at all TAF sites
alongside southerly winds. The line of storms will move through
D10 and ACT between ~05-08Z, with rain lingering until around
10Z. As the line passes, winds will shift westerly, then return
to southerly through the end of the period. Expect MVFR cigs to
persist through the morning hours, but conditions will steadily
improve back to VFR by afternoon.
Prater
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 54 68 45 63 47 / 100 10 0 20 0
Waco 53 67 46 62 48 / 100 5 0 5 0
Paris 55 62 48 58 44 / 100 80 30 40 5
Denton 51 67 43 61 44 / 100 10 0 20 0
McKinney 54 66 45 60 45 / 100 20 5 30 5
Dallas 54 68 45 62 47 / 100 10 0 20 0
Terrell 55 67 43 60 46 / 100 30 5 20 5
Corsicana 56 69 45 63 48 / 100 20 0 20 5
Temple 51 68 46 64 46 / 100 5 0 5 0
Mineral Wells 48 68 43 62 45 / 90 0 0 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
924 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
Light to moderate showers moving through Piney Woods and into the
Shreveport CWA this evening. Should experience quiet weather over
the next couple of hours, with the exception of the Barrier
Islands where an area of stronger moisture convergence will
continue to sustain showers.
Forecast is still on track for two round of storms after midnight
into just after sunrise Saturday morning as a cold front makes
its way towards SE Texas. At present, this is making for some
messy weather across the I-35 Corridor near Austin and down into
South Texas where a dryline that has developed has led to several
severe thunderstorm warnings being issued. While typically
destabilization occurs with the loss of daytime heating, still
observing dew point values in the mid 60s along and south of I-10
corridor (With temperatures also in the 60s in this area, this
indicates plenty of warm moist air available). SPC mesoanalysis
shows pockets of 250-300 m^2/s^2 values for 0-1km SRH (indicative
of some spin in the lower levels), and Effective Bulk Shear values
around 50-60kts (values of 25-40 knots or greater typically
associated with higher supercell potential).
Limiting factor is CAPE as values remain below 1000 J/kg as
indicated by SPC mesoanalysis. Surface level dynamics ahead of the
front do not look all that impressive, so forcing would be mainly
associated with the cold front itself. Upon looking at forecast
Theta-e values, the Theta-e gradient looks to remain strong
as it progresses through South Texas and just east of the I-35
corridor; however, as it approaches SE Texas, the gradient fizzles
out for the most part, with the exception of locations south of
I-10 and west of I-45. This would be the area to keep an eye on as
storms move in overnight. We still remain in a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe weather. HRRR shows the potential for
some bowing to occur along the squall line, so will need to
monitor for the potential for strong to severe winds to mix down
behind these bowing segments. While not as likely, may need to
monitor for the potential for brief spin ups (if storms remain
elevated, this shouldn`t be an issue).
These storms are moving more quickly than anticipated. (good news
for flood potential!) Since the ground is still pretty saturated
in some areas and there are still river flood warnings ongoing
(looking at you Trinity River...), pockets of more moderate to
heavy rainfall could create minor flooding in low-lying areas or
on streets.
Bulk of activity should be out of the area by the early afternoon
hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
Moist southeasterly flow in conjunction with increasing lift aloft
(thanks to a deep mid/upper trough) have resulted in the
development of showers over our westernmost counties. As large
scale lift continues to increase, the coverage of showers and
eventually a few thunderstorms, will also increase from west to
east this evening into tonight. At the low levels, a cold front
will approach from the west. A weak area of low pressure is
expected to form along the front, developing a corresponding warm
front to its east. This warm front is expected to lift northward
towards the CWA late tonight into tomorrow morning. How far north
this front lifts will dictate the risk of isolated severe
thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Current
guidance suggest it will push far enough north to supply
sufficient LL instability across our SW / Matagorda area counties
to allow for the development of isolated severe thunderstorms. But
most guidance struggles to bring the boundary any farther north
than that. ML lapse rates and shear will be favorable area wide,
but the LL instability will be lacking. Rain and thunderstorm
activity is likely to peak after midnight tonight through the
predawn hours on Saturday before pushing offshore and to the east
by mid/late Saturday morning.
There is a good news and bad news regarding the rain. The good
news is that these showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
relatively fast. This is expected to keep widespread rainfall
totals in the 1.0-2.0 inch range with locally heavier amounts.
The bad news is that our soils are still recovering from recent
heavy rainfall. Therefore, it will not take much heavy rain to
result in minor stream/river flooding. There could also be
localized urban flooding in locations of poor drainage. Most of
our region is under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of excessive
rainfall.
Those of you hoping for a quick clearing behind the front may
initially be disappointed since low clouds and perhaps patchy fog
could linger in the front`s wake. However, dry westerly winds will
eventually push the low-cloud crud out of the region. The
sunshine is expected to make its weekend debut by Saturday
afternoon with highs averaging around 70F (dependent on timing of
clearing) and overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
The surface low pressure that brought in the cold front on Saturday
continues to gradually drift southeastward towards the Upper TX
coastline. As it slides to our east on Sunday morning, the tight
pressure gradient leads to a period of fairly gusty westerly to
northwesterly winds. Sustained winds are expected to be in the 15-20
mph range with gusts up to 30 mph at times, especially west of I-45
through the afternoon hours. It also helps to have a 40-50 knot LLJ
overhead to allow some of those stronger gusts to mix down to the
surface. Also on Sunday afternoon, some moisture may wrap around the
surface low and bring a small chance of showers over the Piney
Woods...but that window for rain is fairly small. The more
noticeable "impact" will be increasing clouds from north to south
Sunday afternoon. Beyond that, Sunday is fairly seasonal with highs
in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Once the upper level trough that brought us the cold front/surface
low over the weekend pushes eastward, we move into a pattern
featuring ridging aloft. Monday will be a bit on the cool side as
cooler 850mb temperatures slide in (2-5°C), so expect high
temperatures to remain in the low 60s. After that, we see a steady
climb in temperatures through the end of the work week with high
temperatures solidly in the 70s by Thursday. That`s when our
attention turns to the next approaching upper level trough. This
trough drifts across the western CONUS and generates surface low
pressure that moves eastward through the Central Plains. Since the
upper level trough stays fairly far to the north, there won`t be
that much of a big cold air push this far south. On top of that, a
fairly robust jet streak lines up stretching from northern Mexico
towards the ARKLATEX. If you can visualize that on the map, then
you`ll see that positioning places us in the right exit region of
the jet streak...or an area of upper level convergence. So, even
though moisture is building up in the warm sector early Thursday,
the upper level dynamics aren`t that favorable for rain.
Things look a bit more favorable for rain beginning Thursday night
as a cold front approaches and the jet streak continues tracking
northeastward. It also doesn`t appear that this front will push
cleanly through...remember that the associated trough remains well
to our north so we`re catching the tail-end of the front. The front
looks to do a mixture of washing out and stalling as it attempts to
push through, so I`ve left rain chances in the grids going into the
weekend. So, for those with outdoor festivities, this weekend is the
more sure bet for drier conditions (not counting Saturday morning)
compared to next weekend.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 537 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
SHRA and TSRA working their way through SE Texas from AUS area
this evening ahead of a frontal boundary. SHRA/-RA ongoing at
CLL/UTS with VCSH elsewhere. Expect coverage to increase overnight
as the cold front progresses eastward towards the region. Two
rounds of activity are expected in association with this front
overnight into Saturday morning. CIGs become MVFR during the
overnight hours with potential for IFR conditions. VSBY is a
similar story. Lowered visibilities may accompany precipitation.
Closer to the coast VSBYs may drop to below 2 miles at times. VFR
conditions set to return Saturday afternoon as front moves out of
the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
Expect southeasterly winds to gradually increase throughout the day
with wind speeds in the Gulf waters reaching criteria for caution
flags going into the late afternoon hours. Going into the
evening/overnight hours, showers and storms ahead of and along the
boundary of a cold front will move push through bringing locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Winds briefly reach criteria for a
Small Craft Advisory overnight in the offshore Gulf waters.
Conditions clear out going into Saturday afternoon with wind speeds
trending down and becoming westerly behind the front. Winds increase
once again Sunday and becomes northwesterly as the pressure gradient
tightens. Small Craft Advisories will be needed Sunday morning
through Monday due to the elevated winds and subsequently higher
seas. This period of elevated winds may lead to abnormally low water
levels during times of low tide on late Sunday night/early Monday
morning in the bays, so a Low Water Advisory may be needed. Winds
and seas subside after Monday and remain offshore through Tuesday
afternoon when onshore flow returns.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 318 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
Rainfall records for tomorrow (Saturday Feb. 3) are...
College Station... 4.11 inches set in 2012
Houston........... 1.82 inches set in 1992
Houston Hobby..... 2.40 inches set in 1992
Galveston......... 3.55 inches set in 1992
Palacios.......... 2.59 inches set in 1992
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 57 69 47 66 / 100 60 0 10
Houston (IAH) 60 71 49 68 / 100 100 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 57 65 52 64 / 100 90 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST Saturday for
GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until midnight CST tonight
for GMZ370-375.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Saturday
for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Batiste
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
932 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2024
.Key Messages...
- Stratus persists into tonight, low probability of patchy fog
overnight mainly north
- River and lowland flooding threat continues along Wabash River
- Dry and mild through next Thursday
&&
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 932 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2024
- Clouds dissipating overnight
Surface analysis late this evening shows high pressure in place over
the Great Lakes. A second, albeit weaker area of high pressure was
found over the deep south and gulf coast, with the weak remains of a
frontal boundary stretched across the Tennessee Valley. The strong
area of high pressure was resulting in a moderate pressure gradient
across Central Indiana with easterly winds. GOES16 shows stratocu
across Central Indiana from earlier in the day continuing to slowly
dissipate as many locations have trended toward mostly clear skies.
Dew points across the area were mainly in the upper 20s and lower
30s, with temperatures in the middle 30s.
Overnight, clearing skies are expected to remain the trend as dry
air and subsidence continues to build across Central Indiana. The
ongoing easterly flow due to the pressure gradient is expected to
persist overnight. This will keep winds near 10 knts and provide
some mixing and should help in preventing fog. Forecast soundings
through the night trend toward a dry column with subsidence. Thus
will continue to trend toward a decreasing cloudiness type forecast
with lows in the lower 30s.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2024
A backdoor cold front arrived earlier today, and cold air advection
and cloud cover has largely kept temperatures steady this afternoon.
Little change is expected through the remainder of the afternoon.
Tonight
A few possibilities exist regarding the weather overnight. Global
models tend to clear out the stratus too quickly compared to
observations. CAMs seem a bit on the pessimistic side but are closer
to what we are actually seeing. Hi-res model soundings show a stout
subsidence inversion developing with high boundary layer moisture
levels. Low-level stratus may linger well into the night, with a
slight trend towards clearing by morning as drier air works in from
above. Some models like the HRRR even hint at patchy fog developing
overnight, but given cloud cover and lingering winds will opt for
leaving it out of the forecast for now.
Low temps will be driven by cold air advection, and should settle
into the low 30s or upper 20s depending on location. If clearing is
more robust than expected and winds light, then lows a couple
degrees cooler than shown are possible. On the contrary should cloud
cover be thicker and winds a bit stronger then lows may be warmer by
a few degrees.
Saturday
Speaking of winds, low pressure passing to our south will maintain a
tight pressure gradient across the region through tomorrow. An east
to northeast wind should persist through the period generally
between 5 to 15 mph. Given strong boundary layer stability and
little momentum aloft...max wind gusts shouldn`t be too much higher
than prevailing speeds (roughly 20mph tops).
Most guidance, even CAMs, show clearing through the day tomorrow.
The NAM is an outlier and remains very pessimistic regarding how
much boundary layer moisture can be scoured out. Will tend towards a
sunnier forecast for now. Solar insolation should allow temperatures
to recover a bit tomorrow into the 40s / low 50s, which is 10 to 15
degrees above our climatological norm (37 degrees average high).
&&
.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2024
Sunday...
The beginning of the long term will place central Indiana in the
mediate of a strong high and negatively tilted trough, resulting in
modest SE flow along the baroclinic zone. Mid level cloud cover will
be likely, primarily over SW central Indiana, of which is under
greater influence from cyclonic flow. Overall, the air mass will be
rather warm, with highs in the upper 40s to near 50. Some mixing,
into the modest SE/E flow could result in occasional gusts to 15MPH
Sunday afternoon.
Monday through Thursday...
As the trough dives south, the high will retrograde into the
stronger anticyclonic vorticity, placing the Midwest in a textbook
Rex-Block pattern. In return, conditions will remain stagnant for
early next week. Central Indiana will be downstream of the
High/Ridge where greater subsidence, and therefor where
adiabatically dry/warm air will reside. Within this region, central
Indiana should see much warmer than normal temperatures through
Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 50s. The subsidence should
also mitigate cloud formation outside of some upper level cirrus.
The rex block breaks down mid week, allowing for marginal SW flow to
return and even warmer temperatures through WAA Thursday. A few
locations could reach or exceed 60 (Primarily over SW central IN).
8-14 Day Outlook...
There is more uncertainty for late next week through the following
week as the amplified ridge breaks down, and a more active pattern
takes its place. Deterministic guidance suggests this break-down
occurs as early as next Friday, but a closer dive into ensemble
clusters depicts a much more uncertain solution. Typically,
deterministic models have bias towards faster transition out of an
amplified ridge, leading to high skepticism in the current
prediction of rain next Friday. Nonetheless, when modest SW flow
does return out ahead of deeper troughing to the west, rain will be
likely over the Ohio Valley. This is likely to occur in the 7-11 day
period, but when is still unknown at this point.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 554 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2024
Impacts:
- Brief MVFR Cigs this evening;
- Otherwise VFR much of the period.
Satellite trends show the stratocu deck across Central Indiana
rapidly dissipating as dry air filters into the region along with a
loss of heating. Expect these trends to continue the next few hours,
ultimately leading to VFR conditions and mostly clear skies.
VFR Conditions are expected to continue late tonight into Saturday
as high pressure settles across the area along with strong ridging
aloft and subsidence. Forecast soundings show a very dry column
through the period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...Puma
Short Term...Eckhoff
Long Term...Updike
Aviation...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
640 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog continues across most of western and north central
Nebraska this afternoon, and is expected to continue tonight
through Saturday morning across Custer County and most of
north central Nebraska.
- Widespread rain showers, heavy at times will occur across
western, central and southwest Nebraska later tonight through
Saturday night. Heavy rain with amounts from three quarters of
an inch to over one inch are forecast mainly near and south
of Highway 2.
- Temperatures will remain above freezing through Saturday night
and the forecast expects that the soil will thaw sufficiently
in the top four inches to absorb most of this rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
A check on the frost depth this afternoon at the North Platte
WFO indicated the top layer melted 3 inches down followed by
frozen ground down to 16 inches. Temperatures between now and
late Saturday night will remain in the mid 30s to mid 40s. This
would suggest gradual warming of the ground in the lowest 4
inches and a deepening thawed layer.
The forecast assumes thawing will be adequate to absorb the
predicted rainfall. It`s worth noting that the rain and
partially frozen ground, if it is present, would lead to ponding
and perhaps localized flooding in some areas.
The dense fog advisory was extended until 00Z this evening
across the west and southwest, while Custer County into the
eastern half of north central Nebraska was extended until 18Z
Saturday per the latest RAP model and SREF probabilities for
low visibilities.
A negatively tilted upper trough currently extends from the Four
Corners Region back across the Pacific Northwest. A closed low
is forecast to develop over the Texas panhandle late tonight and
remain nearly stationary on Saturday. By late Saturday night,
the low should become elongated from southwest OK into north
Louisiana. Showers and a few thunderstorms currently across
swrn KS into srn OK will lift northward this evening and will
reach southwest Nebraska by mid evening. The forecast continues
a slight chance of thunderstorms across southwest and central
Nebraska tonight in agreement with the latest SPC day 1 outlook.
Deep southeasterly flow aloft tonight and Saturday will become
more easterly Saturday night. PWATs peak near or above 0.75 inch
tonight into Saturday morning, which is at or above 250 percent
of normal. The latest CAMS as well as deterministic models all
show rounds of showers tonight through Saturday night. While
timing differences exist, rainfall rates could exceed a tenth of
an inch per hour at times. Given the bulk of the rain will fall
with 36 hours, most of the rainfall should soak in.
The NBM was used for lows tonight and highs on Saturday.
Temperatures should remain fairly steady in the upper 30s to
lower 40s tonight and Saturday highs in the mid 40s.
The system will pull away on Sunday, with a fairly saturated
atmosphere but lack of lift by afternoon. Highs from the low to
mid 40s. Light east winds become northeast by afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
Upper ridging will build across the region Monday and Tuesday
as a deep upper trough digs into the western U.S. Highs to
return to the low to mid 50s Monday, with upper 50s Tuesday.
The next chance of precipitation arrives Wednesday and lasts
into Thursday night as the Western trough lifts into the
Northern and Central Plains. Chance POPs are in place Wednesday
night into Thursday and the precip type will likely be rain, but
may mix with or change to snow if temperatures aloft and near
the surface cool sufficiently. Highs to cool into the 40s
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
Areas of dense fog continue across portions of central into
northern Nebraska and will continue through the night. Fog has
lifted some across southwest Nebraska. All areas will remain IFR
with local LIFR ceilings through tonight into much of the day
Saturday. A few thunderstorms are expected to spread across
southwest Nebraska late this evening followed by occasional
showers through Saturday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Saturday for NEZ005>010-
025>028-037-038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Taylor
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
537 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Messages:
- Areas of fog are expected again tonight into Saturday morning with
a few locations having visibilities less than 1 mile.
- There is potential (30-60%) for light rain Saturday night into Sunday
over central and southeast Missouri. Amounts will likely remain
under a quarter of an inch.
- Above normal temperatures will persist next week with well above
normal levels Wednesday into Friday. Rain chances will also
return Thursday and Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
Low clouds and some fog have persisted well into the afternoon in a
narrow band from northeast Missouri through east central Missouri
into southwest Illinois. These clouds are trailing a backdoor cold
front that is now extends from around Kansas City to near Sikeston.
Latest satellite imagery is showing that the clouds are eroding some
from the east over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois, but
not so much so over east central Missouri and southwest Illinois.
The latest RAP soundings are still showing a fairly steep low
level inversion, so any areas that do not clear out before sunset
will likely not do so tonight. In addition, MOS guidance is
suggesting that there will be some areas of fog redeveloping
tonight, especially since we did not mix well today over most of
the area.
Latest run of the HREF is showing that the trough over the western
CONUS will move east into the southern Plains by Saturday night.
This will bring mid and high clouds into the area by tomorrow with a
chance of light rain over parts over parts central and southeast
Missouri starting late Saturday night associated with the upper low.
Precipitation amounts will remain light as the best forcing and
moisture will remain well south of the area.
Temperatures will remain above normal for early February as 850mb
temperatures are around 5C. They will be still be held down
somewhat by easterly winds and clouds coming in tomorrow.
Britt
&&
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
There is reasonable agreement in the ensembles and the deterministic
runs that the upper low will pass through the Lower Mississippi
Valley on Sunday. This will keep light rain chances confined to
central and southeast Missouri with rainfall totals of less than an
quarter of an inch. Then an upper ridge will move across the
Midwest early-midweek before the upper flow turns out of the
southwest late next week. The will be a low amplitude trough with
an attendant cold front moving across the Midwest on Friday. There
will be some increase in moisture ahead of this front and 30-60% of
the ensemble members are showing a chance of rain Thursday into
Friday.
Temperatures will remain above normal in the extended period as they
will in the short term, but readings will climb 10-20 degrees above
normal Wednesday into Friday as the low level flow turns out of the
southwest behind a surface high and the 850mb temperatures climb
into the 5-8C range.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
The forecast for tonight is tricky, with impacts expected at all
local terminals at some point due to low stratus and/or fog.
Currently, a patchy area of stratus is moving eastward across the
area, and is expected to expand and lower tonight as the lower
atmosphere cools. However, to what extent this stratus expands is
uncertain, with current timing for sites that are VFR as of now (KCOU,
KJEF,and KUIN) being approximate. For sites where the stratus is
able to clear tonight, fog is expected to develop. Conditions will
gradually improve tomorrow, though if fog and stratus are thicker
than currently forecast, improvement could take longer than
currently forecast.
Elmore
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
541 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
Current satellite imagery and surface observations reveal VFR
conditions across the area this evening. These VFR conditions are
generally expected to continue through the period. The exception
will be reduced visibilities if patchy fog is able to develop
across southern parts of the area late tonight and early Saturday
morning. Any fog that does develop will dissipate after sunrise,
with VFR conditions expected during the day Saturday. Winds remain
light and variable overnight with southeasterly winds increasing
on Saturday. /14
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 524 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday Night)
Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
Currently, an amplified upper-level ridge with an axis extending
from the central Gulf all the way up to Canada is slowly
progressing eastward. The axis should pass overhead late tonight
into Saturday morning. Strong subsidence from this ridge, as well
as PWATs around a half inch will keep conditions dry for the next
18 to 24 hours. Generally clear skies tonight, increased moisture
at the surface, and light and variable winds may allow for patchy
fog to develop late tonight over the southern half of our region.
Any fog that does develop will dissipate a little after sunrise.
Lows tonight will generally range from the low to mid 40s inland
to the upper 40s along the coast.
Things begin to quickly change by Saturday afternoon as a powerful
southern-stream jet spreads eastward across the southern US. As this
occurs, a highly amplified, negatively-tilted trough evolves into a
closed upper low that moves overhead by Sunday afternoon. The sheer
strength and size of this upper system will help to develop multiple
low pressure systems at the surface as it barrels its way towards
our area. Timing, location, and trajectories of these individual
lows are rather tricky to pinpoint, however, the one that will
provide us with a much wetter and windier pattern is one that will
likely undergo cyclogenesis over the northern Gulf near the
Louisiana coast. Models suggest that this low will move
northeastward as it quickly deepens (pressures potentially
dropping into the 990s), pushing into our Gulf waters and moving
into northern Gulf Coast before occluding and moving off into the
western Atlantic.
Plenty of forcing, induced by strong diffluence aloft and the
developing surface low, as well as a narrow band of moisture
streaming northward along the eastern periphery of the upper low,
will allow for showers (and a few embedded thunderstorms) to
overspread the area beginning Saturday evening through most of the
day on Sunday. The primary rain shield will generally move from
southwest to northeast, with rainfall lingering over our northern
counties on Sunday afternoon. PWATs look to increase to only around
1.1 to 1.3 inches with the best deep layer moisture remaining just
offshore. Overall, models continue to signal that QPF totals will
generally be around 1-2 inches between the Saturday night to Sunday
night timeframe. Although localized flooding concerns still cannot
be entirely ruled out, the overall flood threat remains low at this
time.
We are still not expecting any severe weather with this system as it
moves across the area. Latest CAMs continue to advertise that
virtually no instability will be present as the best ascent moves
overhead. The lack of instability is likely due to the close
proximity of the upper ridge keeping subsidence and a dry layer (in
the low levels) in place right up until the onset of rainfall, in
addition to weak lapse rates of only around 5.0-5.5 C/km. Some weak
instability may return after the main band of rain exits our area
Sunday afternoon (due to steepening lapse rates), however by this
point, the upper low will be located directly overhead, bringing
with it unfavorable shear profiles.
Outside of rainfall, the deepening surface low moving into the
northern Gulf will help to create a very tight pressure gradient
across our area. Over land, a Wind Advisory will likely become
necessary during the Saturday night to Sunday morning timeframe.
Inland counties could see sustained winds around 20-25 mph with
gusts up to 40mph. Locations near the coast could see sustained
winds of 30-35 mph with gusts up to 50mph. It should be noted that
these values could be locally higher depending on the positioning of
the developing surface low, where occasional gusts to near High Wind
criteria could be possible. Over the marine, gale conditions are
likely, with storm force gusts (up to 50kts) possible.
The onshore component of the strong wind will lead to dangerous
beach conditions for the second half of the weekend. A High Risk of
Rip Currents is now in effect starting Saturday evening through
Monday. Additionally, surf conditions will also deteriorate rather
quickly Saturday night through Sunday evening. Large and dangerous
surf heights of around 7 to 9 feet are possible in the surf zones,
especially during the 4am through 4pm CST Sunday timeframe and a
High Surf Warning will likely become necessary in future updates.
/96
LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
The surface low pressure system is forecast to move southeastward
across the eastern Gulf and FL peninsula on Monday. Breezy northerly
winds will be likely across our forecast area on Monday in the wake
of this departing system and the associated cold frontal passage. A
low chance of rain may linger through the morning hours Monday,
especially along and east of the I-65 corridor, with rain chances
quickly diminishing through the afternoon. Highs on Monday are
forecast to range in the mid to upper 50s. Dry northerly to
northwesterly flow aloft will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Upper ridging will build across our region Wednesday into early
Thursday. Southwesterly flow aloft then looks to return late in the
week in advance of the next upper level trough and associated cold
front that will be moving from the Plains to the Lower Mississippi
and Tennessee Valley regions. The forecast is currently dry Tuesday
through Friday morning, with a slight chance of showers indicated
west of I-65 Friday afternoon. Highs should trend back up into the
lower to mid 60s Tuesday and Wednesday and perhaps into the upper
60s to around 70 degrees on Thursday and Friday. Lows in the mid 30s
to around 40 degrees inland and in the 40s along the coast Tuesday
and Wednesday mornings should trend warmer in the upper 40s to lower
50s inland and in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees along the coast by
Friday morning. /21
MARINE...
Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
A light flow pattern continues through tonight. Winds and seas
increase considerably late Saturday into Sunday as an area of low
pressure barrels across the central Gulf. A tight MSLP gradient will
result in increasing easterly to southeasterly winds of 25-35 kt
across much of the marine area, with the 12Z/18Z HRRR and 12Z WRF-
ARW also showing potential for gusts up to 50 kt spreading in late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The ECMWF ensemble guidance also
has probabilities of gusts over 50 kt as high as 30-40%. We have
issued a Storm Watch for our Gulf marine zones and all bays and
sounds except for Choctawhatchee Bay Saturday night into Sunday
morning. The Gale Watch for Choctawhatchee Bay is for gusts up to 40
kt. Will let the next shift assess the latest data and make upgrades
and/or adjustments as needed. Seas may build up to 8-13 ft over the
Gulf zones Saturday night/early Sunday. /21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 44 65 52 63 43 58 40 65 / 0 40 100 80 40 10 0 0
Pensacola 47 65 55 63 46 57 42 64 / 0 20 90 80 40 20 0 0
Destin 51 66 55 63 48 59 45 65 / 0 10 90 90 40 30 0 0
Evergreen 41 69 49 58 41 56 37 65 / 0 10 90 90 60 20 0 0
Waynesboro 42 64 48 59 41 58 37 64 / 0 40 100 90 60 10 0 0
Camden 41 68 48 55 41 56 35 62 / 0 10 80 100 70 20 0 0
Crestview 40 69 50 61 42 58 37 65 / 0 10 90 90 50 30 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Monday
afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Monday
afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM CST Saturday for
GMZ630>634-650-655-670-675.
Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
GMZ630>634-650-655-670-675.
Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
GMZ635-636.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
613 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Record high temperatures possible Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday
next week.
- Next chance for precipitation will be late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
Current GOES imagery shows a heart shaped hole of clear skies
over portions of central and eastern Minnesota. An expansive
area of stratus covers portions of north central, western, and
southeastern Minnesota, will expand overnight as low level
moisture builds in. Temperatures are 10 degrees or so cooler
than yesterday with temepratures in the upper 30s and lower 40s
but thats still 10 to 15 degrees warmer than our average high
temperatures. Our attention will turn back to the expanding
stratus this evening and tonight. RAP & HRRR soundings across
the region highlight low level moisture indicative of a shallow
layer of stratus. There is still some uncertainty, but these
forecast soundings could also support the return of our old
friend dense fog tonight into Saturday AM. If the more bullish
HRRR is correct we`ll likely have areas of dense fog develop in
non Twin Cities metro locations with patchy fog possible on the
fringes of the metro. It`ll be something for the evening and
night crew to monitor. Low temperatures only cool into the lower
30s given the higher dew points & cloud cover. This would still
be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than our average HIGH temperatures
for this time of year. Okay okay I`ll stop complaining about the
warmth and lack of snow now.
Next week will feature another stretch of near record to record
breaking high temperatures. An impressive blocking pattern will take
hold over eastern half of North America. Highly anomalous ridging
will shift east from central Canada toward the western Great Lakes
region and stretch back into the Central Plains. Considering the
lack of snow cover, this will support very warm sfc temperatures for
the Upper Mississippi Valley region next week. Our highs will warm
into the 50s each day through Thursday. This will challenge record
highs each day at the three climate sites. There is some hope as
guidance suggests the pattern will begin to break up toward the end
of the week. Guidance wants to weaken the ridge over Canada,
allowing a trough to dig in along the West Coast and gradually
displacing the ridge over the central CONUS. This trough will send
multiple pieces of energy across the Rockies with the first progged
to impact the area Thursday night into Friday. There remains plenty
of spread in ensemble guidance, but most GEFS/EPS members have some
QPF during this period. Most EPS favor a drier solution with QPF
amounts less than a quarter inch and GEFS favor a wetter solution.
The latest 12z ECMWF deterministic has the main wave going into
Canada with the associated cold front forcing missing us to the
south and east. This would be par for the course and leave us with
nothing more than cooler temperatures behind the fropa.
Probabilistic guidance still favors a light precip event so what
would be the dominant p-type? Unfortunately, if there is any precip
it`ll fall as liquid given the warm air advection along and ahead of
the sfc cold front. No surprise given how this Winter has played
out.
Beyond that, the pattern will shift toward a more northwesterly flow
aloft. This should translate to a cooler, drier pattern with the
potential for Intermittent clipper-type systems embedded in the
flow. Surface temperatures do not look that cold due to the lack of
snow pack and cold air aloft but we should see high temperatures
return toward normal by the end of next weekend. What`s driving the
pattern shift? We`ll see the return of a Greenland block over the
Atlantic associated with the NAO turning negative. Additionally, the
EPS suggests that the PNA will flip positive which would favor
ridging along the West Coast. It`s to be taken with a grain of salt
as slight displacement of these features could ultimately change
what the pattern looks like for Minnesota & Wisconsin, but Winter
isn`t over yet but I wouldn`t expect an immediate change.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
Low MVFR status blankets MKT and RWF whereas elsewhere,
skies are clear. Did add a TEMPO for STC as a sliver of this
stratus may clip the site over the next couple of hours. All
sites can expect to see reduced ceilings later on this evening.
Similar to yesterday`s forecast guidance, CAMS are going very
aggressive on the development of IFR fog across all sites but
given the current environment and wind speeds remaining at or
above 5 knots, IFR cigs should be the only concern tonight into
early tomorrow morning. I did introduce a brief period of MVFR
vsby in the case any existing BR is a little more prevalent than
anticipated. Southeast winds continuing through this TAF period
near 10kts or below.
KMSP...MVFR cigs clearing the terminal currently, should have a
few hours of few to unlimited cigs before more stratus develops
tonight. Introduced minor MVFR impacts with vsby late tonight in
the case BR becomes more pronounced. Cigs should begin to
scatter out between 15-18z timeframe. Winds remaining southeast
below 10kts.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...RMD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
438 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 145 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
An amplified upper-trough across the west will translate east
overnight with an area of low-pressure deepening at the base of
the trough across the Texas panhandle by midnight. Southwest flow
ahead of the upper-trough will contribute to increased moisture
bringing widespread cloud-cover across the region this evening.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms to increase in coverage across
east and northeast Texas as well as southeast Oklahoma by midnight
with precipitation increasing in coverage and expanding areawide
by daybreak. With southerly flow increasing ahead of the height
falls associated with the approaching trough, PW are values
forecast to increase. Additionally, upper-level diffluence will
allow for the threat for locally heavy rainfall across some areas
of east Texas with 1 to 2 inches of rainfall possible overnight.
Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms to continue into
Saturday as upper-low will remain nearly parked across Oklahoma
maintaining an unstable setup across the ArkLaTex. Heaviest
rainfall can be expected across mainly deep east Texas and
adjacent parishes in north Louisiana.
Although precip chances will remain elevated into Saturday night,
rainfall rates will gradually taper as the upper-low becomes
centered across the ArkLaTex.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
Conditions to continue to slowly improve through Sunday as the
upper-low exits the region to the east. Lingering scattered
rain showers on the backside of the departing low will be possible
through much of the day. By Sunday night, all precipitation to
exit the region to the east with surface and upper-level ridging
to build areawide. Dry conditions forecast to prevail through
Wednesday night as cool high pressure rebuilds across the region.
Temperatures from early to midweek to range from highs in the
lower 60s to lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s each day.
An upper-trough will swing northeast across the Texas panhandle
into Oklahoma and Kansas on Thursday allowing for sufficient
instability to generate showers along a frontal boundary that will
push through the ArkLaTex. With the brunt of the upper-level
support shifting northeast, the frontal boundary will be left to
linger across the northern gulf coast allowing for a chance for
diurnally-driven showers each day through the end of the forecast
period on Thursday night. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 434 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
VFR conditions prevailing currently across all our terminal
locations with low VFR ceilings encompassing all but the ELD and
MLU terminals. This will change as we go through the evening and
especially the overnight hours as precipitation moves into our
airspace. Allowed for a window of thunderstorms overnight and
through the morning hours on Saturday from west to east across our
airspace, otherwise, followed the HRRR concerning precipitation
timing which is much quicker to bring the precipitation into our
airspace and much quicker to move it out as well. Eventually,
behind this thunderstorm window, look for IFR ceilings to prevail
through much of the day Saturday with some recovery by late in the
forecast period across our western most terminals. Winds will
remain mostly from the southeast near 5-12kts with the stronger
winds predominantly during the daytime hours on Saturday.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 55 61 50 64 / 80 100 60 40
MLU 51 61 48 61 / 20 90 100 50
DEQ 53 58 47 59 / 90 100 80 60
TXK 54 58 48 59 / 80 100 70 50
ELD 52 59 47 59 / 40 90 90 60
TYR 57 66 46 62 / 100 80 10 20
GGG 56 65 47 63 / 90 90 30 30
LFK 57 67 45 66 / 90 90 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
An expansive omega blocking pattern is in place over much of NoAM
attm, but there`s entirely too much jet energy coming in from the
Pacific into the Southwest to keep this pattern in place. A system
on the nose of this jet is organizing to our west and will impact
our weather thru the weekend. Moisture return ahead of the system
has already resulted in the northward spread of low cloud into the
area, holding temps back a bit compared to yesterday.
Showers and storms will increase to our west and southwest as the
system emerges into the High Plains this afternoon. This activity
will expand in coverage and spread east/northeast tonight into
Saturday morning, while gradually weakening as it moves into
the region. Nevertheless, the latest runs of the HRRR suggest
some potential for gusty winds especially with any remnant bowing
line segments as they move into the area. In the wake of the first
round, another band of showers and storms is expected to develop
over eastern Oklahoma during the afternoon, near an occluded
front. CAMs suggest the best chance for storms will be over NE TX
into SE OK along the occlusion, and have made this reflection in
the thunder probs. Deep layer southerly flow and resulting sub-
par deep layer shear along with weak instability (less than
1000J/kg) suggest that severe hail potential will be pretty
limited despite colder temps aloft. This activity should wane
after sunset tomorrow night.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
Mid-level cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains
tomorrow, with the system tracking southeast with time pushed
along by the stout southern jet. As the system moves away from the
region on Sunday, another round of wrap-around rain will sweep
across much of the region. This rain will be lighter in nature and
thunder is not expected. All toll, with the 3 main rounds of
precip with this system, most folks should expect to pick up
around an inch, with some smaller pockets of 1.5 to 2 inches
possible. Flooding potential will be limited.
After this system departs, ridging aloft will lead to quiet and
mild weather for much of next week. The next front is expected by
late Thursday. Both the GFS and EC keep the bulk of the rain from
this system to our south and east, but because these details can
change the lower end PoPs from the blended guidance (NBM) were
maintained.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024
MVFR ceilings ongoing across E OK will gradually spread eastward
and impact NW AR terminals overnight. Light showers will move into
E OK this evening but more widespread and heavier rains will be
after midnight along with scattered storms. Expect low MVFR to IFR
ceilings area wide around sunrise and persisting through the day
along with periods of rain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 55 59 48 53 / 100 100 80 80
FSM 53 58 49 55 / 80 100 90 80
MLC 56 60 47 55 / 100 90 50 60
BVO 55 59 46 53 / 100 100 80 80
FYV 53 57 46 53 / 50 90 90 90
BYV 50 57 46 50 / 20 60 100 90
MKO 55 57 48 53 / 90 100 80 80
MIO 55 59 47 51 / 60 90 90 90
F10 54 59 47 54 / 100 90 60 70
HHW 54 59 48 58 / 100 90 40 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07