Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/29/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
601 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight and Monday/
A relatively benign forecast through Monday is expected, as
increasing mid level heights associated with a shortwave ridge
build in from the west as mid level flow deamplifies. A surface
high over the region will continue to slide southeast toward the
Upper Texas Coast and western GoM through Monday.
Tonight will be clear with strong radiational cooling. However,
the return of southwesterly winds 10 mph or less over the western
half of the CWA will help to maintain low temperatures in the
upper 30s and lower 40s. Closer to the slow-exiting surface high,
winds will be more light and variable. These areas will be able to
fall into the lower-mid 30s and with surface dew points remaining
a bit elevated overnight, saturation is likely with patchy to
areas of fog expected to form after midnight and last through mid
morning. A few spots across our far eastern counties may briefly
become dense in spots and we`ll need to monitor for the potential
for an advisory during the overnight hours. Though some spotty
light fog is possible across the eastern Metroplex, the bulk of
the visibility issue should remain across East Texas.
Any fog should dissipate mid to late morning across the eastern
counties, as temperatures warm readily with the onset and increase
in westerly surface winds at 10 to 15 mph by afternoon. Plentiful
sunshine and a compressional warming component from the higher
terrain across the Big Country and West-Central Texas will help
afternoon temperatures warm well into the 60s, with a few locales
topping the 70 degree plateau across the western counties. This is
about as good as you can ask for in late January. Enjoy it!
05/Marty
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 343 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024/
/Tuesday Onward/
Warm temperatures will continue through midweek as ridging
continues to move into the region, pushing the northeastern CONUS
trough further off shore. A shortwave coming down from the Great
Lakes on Tuesday will deepen into a closed low as it moves south,
ushering a weak cold front through the region Tuesday into
Wednesday. With little in the way of cold air advection behind
the boundary, Wednesday high temps will be able to peak in the mid
to upper 60s as the apex of the ridge moves overhead.
Over the latter portions of the week, an upper level trough will
move onshore over the West Coast, ushering the ridge to our east.
Return flow will have become established by late Wednesday, with
moisture advection beginning around the western edge of the ridge.
The aforementioned trough to our west will become negatively
tilted as it moves towards the Central Plains, with the
southernmost portion of the trough splitting off and amplifying
into a closed low. The low will move across Texas, bringing rain
chances to start the weekend.
This is where uncertainty comes into the forecast as
deterministic model guidance diverges a bit. The GFS keeps
instability on the meager side and tracks the upper low just to
the south of the CWA, while the ECMWF has a bit more instability
to play with and tracks the low across the CWA. Cluster analysis
also shows uncertainty in the track as 32% of members show the
upper low swinging further north through Oklahoma. However,
cluster guidance is rather uniform on the better rain chances
being over Saturday morning. All in all we`re more confident on
the potential for rain than the track of the low at this time.
We`ll keep watch as we get closer in time.
As the upper low moves, a stalled cold front to our north will be
able to move further south on Sunday with the newly provided
upper level support. Expect cooler temperatures with lows in the
30s and highs in the 50s to end out the weekend.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
Though we`ll need to watch for patchy BR back as far west as the
I-35 corridor and airports around sunrise, higher confidence for
FG/BR should remain across E TX and the Red River Valley. I have
removed the TEMPO/MVFR vsbys from the 18z TAFs with HRRR and HREF
probabilities at 20% or less at D10 airports and Waco.
A broad surface high now over eastern North and Central TX is
forecast to slide into across SE/E TX into the NW GoM. Light S or
SW winds 5 kts or less through sunrise Monday will veer W at 10 to
15 kts during late morning/afternoon hours, before decoupling and
backing S at 5-8 kts by Monday evening.
05/Marty
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 39 68 43 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 36 69 43 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 34 63 40 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 34 67 40 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 34 65 41 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 40 67 43 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 35 65 42 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 38 68 44 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 37 68 42 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 37 69 41 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
748 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High probability (greater than 50% chance) that dense fog
returns late tonight in areas along and west of the IL River.
- Low probability (less than 40% chance) that scattered showers
return late Monday night, briefly mixing with light snow on
Tuesday.
- Daily average temperatures through the remainder of the forecast
period will run about 10 degF warmer than what is normal for the
season.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 748 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024
Main focus remains with the back edge of the clouds. Latest
satellite imagery shows it starting to cross the Mississippi River
near Quincy and advancing further south across Missouri, though
the Iowa portion is fairly anchored in place. 900 mb humidity
layer plot from the RAP would suggest the back edge would reach as
far as I-55 by about 4-5 am, though this seems optimistic. On the
other hand, the HRRR halts the advancement and keeps us mostly
cloudy well into Monday morning. General thought still is that any
sunshine is more likely during the afternoon. As for the fog
potential, areas west of the Illinois River still look most likely
to see dense fog, though blended guidance has been bringing 2-3
mile visibility as far east as I-57t toward sunrise.
Main forecast updates have been with fog/visibility trends through
Monday morning. No changes are being made to the advisory at this
time.
Geelhart
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024
Low stratus and patchy drizzle continue to blanket much of the
Mississippi Valley this afternoon beneath a strengthening
subsidence inversion. The back edge of clouds currently extends
from central Minnesota to central Missouri, and model guidance
remains in fair agreement that it mixes eastward throughout the
evening hours, eventually making it to Interstate 55 by daybreak.
With partial clearing expected across our western counties, fog
should once again be prevalent overnight. Short-term model
guidance supports this idea, with the latest HREF Grand Ensemble
offering high probabilities (> 50% chance) that visibility falls
below one-half mile along and west of the IL River. For this
reason, we have hoisted a Dense Fog Advisory for our western tier
of counties, in effect from Midnight until 10am Monday morning.
Sunshine is expected to return by midday Monday as fog and low-
level stratus finally mix out behind a departing ridge axis.
Temperatures will respond by bouncing into the 40s areawide.
The period of clear skies will prove brief, however, as clouds
once again return Monday evening ahead of a digging/amplifying
mid- level shortwave trough and attendant surface low. Dry air
will limit QPF associated with this wave, at least at onset
Monday night, but there should be enough forcing in the way of
robust height falls, positive vorticity advection, warm/moist
advection, and steepening lapse rates to improve saturation depth
and support scattered showers along the surface front. Forecast
soundings are indicative of rain late Monday night along the
surface front. But, as the cold-core, upper-low digs into NE
Illinois Tuesday afternoon, there could be enough dynamic cooling
and wet- bulbing beneath it to support a brief burst of snow.
However, surface temps in the mid-to-upper 30s and another push of
mid- level dry air should preclude an accumulating snow threat,
and the latest NBM guidance only offers a low probability (less
than 40% chance) of rain/snow showers during this period.
Choppy atmospheric flow will continue through midweek as another
mid-level shortwave trough digs into the Great Lakes region and
drags a cold front across central Illinois late Thursday
afternoon. Dry air will once again limit precip potential with
this second disturbance, but daily temperatures on Wednesday and
Thursday are forecast to warm into the upper 40s ahead of the
front.
There remains strong semblance among deterministic and blended
guidance that a blocking pattern develops late this week,
extending through much of next weekend. The net effect will be a
stretch of dry and continued mild weather through the first few
days of February as daily average temperatures remain about 10
degF above normal.
MJA
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024
An area of low MVFR ceilings (1000-1500 feet) stretches from
KPIA-KCMI early this evening, but there are signs that this is
beginning to slip downward again. In general, IFR ceilings will
be prevalent across the forecast area overnight. While the back
edge of the persistent cloud deck is inching toward west central
Illinois, any clearing that manages to take place is likely to be
filled in as fog and stratus develops. General time frame for that
would be after 06Z. Probabilities of visibility below a mile are
about 20-30% as far east as KDEC/KCMI, with a 30-40% chance of
less than 1/2SM at KPIA around 12-15Z.
Winds switch around to the southwest Monday morning as high
pressure slides by, and that should help break up some of the
cloud cover. Most sites should (finally) be VFR around midday,
perhaps holding on a bit longer over eastern Illinois.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Monday for
ILZ027>029-036-040.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
553 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry conditions and an increasing warming trend continue through
Thursday as highs rise into the mid 50s to low 60s before dropping
into the 40s by next weekend.
* The next major weather system arrives next weekend in the form of
rain and snow, although, confidence remains low in amounts,
precipitation type, and track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024
Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will remain in place
through the short-term keeping conditions dry and clear. The only
major weather concern will be the increasing temperature trend into
Monday. As 850 mb temperatures rise into the 5 to 10 C range,
surface temperatures will easily rise as well. Have gone ahead and
leaned on the warmer side of guidance as these warmer mid-level
temperatures combined with plenty of sunshine and westerly winds
will easily allow high temperatures will rise into the low 50s to
upper 50s for locations generally southwest of a Ainsworth to
Burwell line. To the northeast where lingering snowpack remains,
slightly cooler temperatures in the 40s are expected on Monday. This
warmer airmass will also affect overnight low temperatures. For both
tonight and Monday night, lows will only drop into the upper 20s to
low 30s, nearly 10 degrees warmer than last night (Saturday
night).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024
Upper level ridging remains in place through the end of the week.
Conditions will remain dry and warm as continued warm air advection
pushes into the region. Overall temperatures Tuesday through
Thursday will range from the mid 40s in north central Nebraska to
the upper 50s in southwest Nebraska with the warmest day being
Wednesday. With a rapidly diminishing snowpack and latest trends of
temperatures over-achieving, have increased highs into at least the
75th percentile. This pushes most locations into the low 60s on
Wednesday with the coolest temperatures (in the 50s) still in the
extreme north central area.
The warming trend and a pattern change returns for the end of the
week. Increasing clouds on Friday in advance of the next weather
system will return highs into the 40s for the entire forecast area.
A developing upper level low just to the south of Nebraska will
begin to push in some light precipitation by Friday evening. With
temperatures still well above freezing and Friday night lows a few
degrees above 32F, the latest model temperature profiles will
support an all or mostly all liquid forecast from Friday night into
Saturday. As we head into Saturday night and temperatures cool into
the mid 20s overnight, there could be some light snow as well. Model
confidence remains too low in track and timing to determine snow
amounts, if precipitation even pushes into our area at all. There
has been a slight trend in this system further to the south, which
may result in little to no precipitation across north central and
western Nebraska. Will continue to closely monitor this pattern
and developing system over the next several days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Main aviation concerns will focus on threat for valley fog
affecting LBF followed by gusty afternoon winds Monday affecting
primarily VTN. Various short term guidance highlights potential
for valley fog to develop in the Platte Valley in the pre-dawn
hours Monday. While HRRR guidance is a bit more pessimistic on
magnitude, probabilities approaching 20% in HREF guidance of
seeing IFR conditions warrants monitoring this evening.
Thereafter, strong northwest winds will develop across north
central Nebraska with peak gusts nearing 30 knots for ONL/ANW
but closer to 25 knots at VTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...NMJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
856 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024
GOES-16 satellite trends this evening place an upper-level low
over eastern Pennsylvania. Low cloud cover from this low extends
back southwest towards the Mississippi River. The back edge of
this cloud cover has been making some progress to the east over
the past few hours. Some adjustments will be made to sky cover and
temperatures to account for these trends. Otherwise, the remainder
of the forecast is on track at this time.
CJC
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024
A gradual warming trend will start the work week with highs in
the 60s by Tuesday afternoon. Rain chances remain slim through the
week, but a dry frontal passage on Tuesday should moderate
temperatures back to the 40s and 50s. The next chance of rain will
occur this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024
Overcast skies remain in place across the majority of the Mid-
South this afternoon, with a small area of clear skies situated
west of the Mississippi River. Cloud cover will remain persistent
overnight and likely not clear until Monday afternoon. As such,
raised temperatures a degree or two overnight. A mostly quiet
weather pattern will return for the beginning of the work week
with temperatures warming to the 60s on Tuesday.
Elsewhere in CONUS on Tuesday, a large upper level trough will
transverse the Great Lakes Region and eject a cold front to the
Mid-South. A few models continue to bring showers to the TN
River, but confidence for this remains low so kept the forecast
mostly dry. Temperatures will return to the 40s and 50s on
Wednesday and Thursday.
A messy upper level pattern will emerge on Friday as an Omega
Block situates over CONUS. Both the GFS and ECMWF develop an upper
level low ejecting from the Rockies late Friday. This system will
move across the Gulf Coast on Saturday, which may bring showers to
the Mid-South. However, confidence for this system remains low so
stay tuned.
ANS
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024
A challenging forecast with respect to CIGs tonight. Short range
guidance from the HRRR and LAMP is not handling current cloud
trends, which have cleared ahead of schedule at JBR and MEM.
RAP 925mb RH field is doing a decent job approximating current
cloud cover and depicts a patch of higher RH developing from JBR
through MEM around 03Z, then clearing out to the south by 07Z.
This is in an area of current clearing between the two terminals
and in advance of a more solid MVFR deck over SE MO. The back
edge of the primary low MVFR/high IFR deck is depicted by the RAP
to remain east of MEM and JBR overnight. It will be close, as
925mb / FL020 winds will veer slightly to the north overnight.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MSZ007-011-020.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB