Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/27/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
538 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog is expected to redevelop tonight for portions of NW
WI, the Twin Ports, Cloquet, and southern Lake County.
- Areas of flurries, drizzle, and freezing drizzle will persist
tonight through Saturday night.
- Temperatures will continue to be unseasonably warm for the
next couple weeks. More record warm low temperatures are
likely tonight into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
Relatively stagnant conditions will persist tonight ahead of an
approaching weak shortwave trough. Low and thin stratus will
dwell over the Northland through the weekend. Partial clearing
was observed over North Dakota and adjacent areas of southern
Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba this afternoon. However, with
light southwest flow aloft, we don`t expect clouds to dwindle
over the Northland. GOES-East Band 2 Red Visible imagery
revealed surface features through the clouds over central and
north-central Minnesota this afternoon. AWOS/ASOS observations
continued to indicate mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. Fog is
forecast to redevelop over portions of northwest Wisconsin, the
Twin Ports area inland to Cloquet and possibly as far south as
Moose Lake, and up to Silver Bay. Dense Fog Advisories have been
issued for areas most likely to see dense fog. These advisories
may need to be expanded later tonight should low visibility
expand farther inland.
While moisture remains limited, there should be enough forcing
for ascent for another round of drizzle, freezing drizzle, and
flurries advancing southeastward across northern Minnesota
tonight and moving into northwest Wisconsin Saturday. Mainly
handled the threat with "very light" precipitation. There are
indications from the RAP that deeper saturation will develop
over portions of north-central Minnesota into the Arrowhead
Saturday morning into Sunday evening. Freezing drizzle
accumulation of a few hundredths of an inch are forecast from
Birchdale to Virginia to Isabella to Sea Gull Lake and the
northern Gunflint Trail. That area includes Cook, Orr, Ely, and
International Falls.
A series of troughs will propagate southeastward across the
northern Plains and upper Midwest Sunday night through Tuesday
next week. Moisture will be limited. Deterministic guidance
seems to be struggling to latch onto a solution and the ensemble
members aren`t performing much better. We raised PoPs up to a
max of 30% Monday afternoon through 12Z Tuesday. Looks like a
low QPF situation, if measurable precipitation occurs.
Considering the spread in the model solutions, we`re not
particularly confident precipitation will occur.
Much above normal temperatures will continue through the
weekend and next week. As previously mentioned, we may set
several additional record warm low temperatures during this
period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
A stagnant weather pattern with IFR/LIFR stratus. VLIFR fog is
expected to redevelop overnight though there is low confidence
on timing of the onset. Generally a spread of lower conditions
from west to east as a shortwave crosses overnight. Light
westerly winds through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 420 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
Dense fog was still over portions of the nearshore waters from
Silver Bay to Duluth to Saxon Harbor. With light winds across
the area, look for the area of fog to slosh around the lake
overnight and into Saturday morning. We extended the Dense Fog
Advisory until noon Saturday. The fog may expand up the North
Shore overnight. Otherwise expect winds generally less than 15
knots and waves less than 3 feet through next Friday.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Saturday for MNZ020-037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Saturday for WIZ001>003.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for WIZ004-009.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Saturday for LSZ143>148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Huyck
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
732 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High confidence (60% probability or greater) that dense fog will
return this evening in areas north of I-70; highest confidence
along/west of the Illinois River.
- Very high confidence (80% probability or greater) that weekend
rainfall will not exceed 0.10" for locations west of a
Taylorville- to-Champaign line.
- Mild conditions continue next week as afternoon temperatures
average 5-10 degrees warmer than what is considered normal for
late January.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
Lowering visibilities have been noted the last couple hours in
areas along the I-74 corridor. Latest HRRR continues this trend
over the rest of the evening, with a gradual southward expansion.
Starting to get some reports of light drizzle in the thicker fog,
and have added some drizzle into the evening forecast until the
shortwave departs the area. Otherwise, no significant changes were
made with this update.
Geelhart
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
Scattered showers have largely been confined to areas along and
north of I-80 this afternoon. This activity will gradually
diminish as subsidence works in behind a departing shortwave
trough. Further south across central Illinois, patchy drizzle has
been more common amid weaker forcing and a shallower moisture
profile.
As the shortwave departs tonight, a ridge of high pressure will
expand eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Regional model
soundings are depicting a subsidence inversion around 1 km. With
saturated parcels trapped beneath the inversion and a gentle
vertical wind profile, areas of dense fog are once again expected
to develop overnight. The latest HREF Grand Ensemble exhibits
greater than a 60% probability of visibility less than 1/2 mile
north of I-70. A Dense Fog Advisory will go into effect at 5pm
this evening, expiring by 9am Saturday morning. An expanding wind
field associated with a frontal system lifting into the Tennessee
Valley will help whisk away our low clouds and fog by late
Saturday morning.
While the bulk of the rain associated with the frontal system gets
deflected east of our area, we could potentially pick up an
additional 0.10" or more across our east central and southeast
counties. Latest guidance from the NBM shows very high confidence
(80% probability or greater) that Saturday rainfall will not
exceed 0.10" for locations west of a Taylorville- to-Champaign
line.
Cooler and drier condtions return Sunday behind the departing
frontal system with afternoon highs in the upper 30s. We could
even see some scattered sunshine as a ridge axis begins to build
into west central Illinois.
The pattern then looks mostly dry and progressively warmer as we
head into next week, with a possible exception coming Tuesday when
a clipper system skirts the Lower Great Lakes region. Our forecast
does have a 20-30% chance for precip along and north of the I-74
corridor by then, but current thermal profiles support rain and
not snow. Otherwise, model guidance remains in excellent agreement
in developing a high-amplitude ridge over the central U.S. by
midweek. Beneath this feature, daily temperatures will warm into
the mid-to-upper 40s, with 50 degrees not out of the question by
next Friday for locations south of I-72.
MJA
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
LIFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours, with
ceilings generally stuck at 200-300 feet. Visibilities are
beginning to deteriorate once again near KBMI/KCMI, and a general
trend toward 1/2SM or worse will occur over central Illinois,
especially overnight. Toward 18Z, visibilities should rise to
about 2-3SM at all the terminals, persisting through the
afternoon.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
533 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog is expected overnight across parts of north central
Nebraska; generally along and east of highway 281.
- No fog is predicted Sunday through Friday and mild weather is
likely during this time with temperatures warming into the 40s
and 50s to around 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 353 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
The temperature forecast tonight and Saturday night leans on the
cooler guidance blend for lows in the teens to lower 20s. This
forecast is based on drier air moving in tonight which lasts until
early Sunday morning. The h850-300mb RH will fall to around 25
percent and this would suggest clear skies and strong radiational
cooling. A warm air advection pattern will develop after midnight
Saturday which suggests lows might occur around midnight. The
temperature forecasts both nights is slightly cooler than the NBM
50th but warmer than the 25th percentile.
The high temperature forecast Saturday uses a blend of the bias
corrected GFS, ECM and SREF. This blend seemed to capture the snow
cover across ncntl Nebraska and the lack thereof across wrn
Nebraska. The forecast looks very similar to the NBM 50th percentile.
Fog chances tonight lean on the RAP model, the SREF and short term
model blend visibility forecasts which show dense forming in or just
east of Holt county; north and south through cntl Nebraska.
The models are suggesting enough dry air moving in aloft and at the
sfc to scour the moisture out before sunrise but it`s worth noting
the timing could be too quick and forecast errors could result in
the fog forming perhaps 20 miles to the west affecting Boyd, Holt
and Wheeler counties.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 353 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
A fairly strong warm air advection pattern should be underway Sunday
and last through Thursday. The models show temperatures at the
h850mb level rising to between 7C and 12C during this time.
Better yet, is h850-300mb RH falls to around 20 percent Tuesday
through Thursday. The result should be generally clear skies and
highs well into the 50s Tuesday through Thursday. The
temperature forecast gets a nudge toward the NBM 50th percentile
which presents highs around 60 south of I-80 west of North
Platte. Note, highs in the 40s are in place across ncntl
Nebraska along and east of highway 183. Snow cover is the reason
for this.
Otherwise, the forecast highs in the 30s, 40s, 50s to around 60
Sunday and Monday may be too warm. The models show the batch of mid
level moisture across the PAC northwest dispersing as it moves into
Nebraska. The result could be partly cloudy skies and a disruption
of the daytime heating cycle. Once this moisture clears the area, an
upper level ridge will build across the nrn Rockies and cntl/nrn
Plains. This should support clear skies as suggested by the 20
percent RH shown by the models at h850-300mb.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
High pressure leads to prevailing VFR conditions across western and
north central Nebraska through the TAF period. A few passing high
and mid level clouds will be seen at the terminals, though no
impacts are expected to conditions. Winds will be light out of the
northwest, becoming westerly tonight and remaining westerly through
tomorrow evening. Though some fog is expected in north central
Nebraska tonight, visibility impacts are expected to remain well
east of both KVTN and KLBF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Saturday for NEZ007-010-028-
029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Richie
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
858 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 858 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024
RAP 500 MB analysis and water vapor imagery shows an upper level
low pressure system over the south-central plains with plenty of
moisture ahead of the trough through the Tennessee Valley this
evening. This weather making system is still on track to move into
the region overnight along the TN/KY border and up to the Ohio
River Valley by mid to late morning. The rest of the forecast
remains on track with minor updates.
&&
.Short Term (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024
=================================================================
Key Messages:
* Widespread rain (~100% chances) moves in for Saturday
=================================================================
Fairly mild conditions for late January continue to persist across
the region despite widespread stratus and occasional drizzle.
Temperatures through the late afternoon into the evening hours
likely won`t fluctuate much, but we should see them steadily decline
overnight into the low 40s due to weak cold air advection. As T/Td
spreads decrease, some patchy fog could develop, but at this time is
not expected to be dense.
Rain will begin moving in ahead of our next system early Saturday
morning as isentropic lift coincides with deeper moisture advection.
Rain will likely start near the KY/TN border just before dawn and
gradually spread northward through the day. Widespread rain should
encompass the region by early afternoon.
.Long Term (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024
==================================================================
Key Messages:
* Widespread rain chances Saturday night through Sunday, with 0.5-
1.0 inches of rain expected.
* Very light rain possible with a clipper system moving into the
region from southern Canada.
* High pressure will lead to a needed break in the weather pattern
late next week.
==================================================================
Saturday Night - Sunday Night... A low pressure system will move
over eastern Kentucky. Central Kentucky and southern Indiana will,
at first, be located within the warm conveyor belt of the system,
which will lead to ample moisture at low and mid levels to produce
rain. As the system moves northeast, rain will wrap around the low
as it occludes. This will keep moisture and rain in the region
through Sunday, and will taper off from west to east as the system
moves further away from the region. Expected QPF is between 0.5-1.5
inches and will increase towards the KY/TN border. Carrying a slight
chance for thunderstorms in our far southeastern counties due to a
few hundred joules of CAPE nosing into the region.
As the system moves northeast and moisture is still wrapped around
the low, some precip may transition to snow over the Bluegrass and
eastern portions of the CWA. The chance of this occurring is <15%
and forecast confidence is low, due to a near-surface thermal layer.
If rain does transition to snow, this would occur for a few hours in
the early morning on Sunday and would not accumulate due to light
snow and above freezing surface temperatures.
Monday - Monday Night... Brief high pressure will inch into the
region from the southwest, allowing for some thinning of clouds.
Temperatures will be cooler in the low-mid 40s.
Tuesday - Wednesday Night... A low pressure system will dive south
from southern Canada, through the Great Lakes region and into the
Ohio Valley. This type of clipper system will be less impressive
than the previous system, bringing increased rain chances, but very
light QPF.
Thursday - End of Next Week... High pressure will move into the
region, leading to dry, comfortable conditions with partly cloudy
skies. Temperatures will gradually warm to slightly above normal.
Should be a nice break in the weather pattern to end a very
eventful January.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 636 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024
MVFR stratus continues to blanket the region and is expected to drop
into the IFR range near sunrise Saturday along with rain. Winds will
veer through the overnight hours into tomorrow morning ahead of the
next rain making system. Patchy fog/mist may develop ahead of the
rain, though confidence in its placement as well as the severity of
it remains low. More confidence is in the MVFR cigs/stratus
persisting overnight into Saturday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...MK
Short Term........DM
Long Term.........SRM
Aviation..........MK
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
947 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
I`ve made a few updates to the previous forecast. The first is to
issue a dense fog advisory for northeast MO and west-central IL
through 10 am on Saturday. All of the short-term visibility
guidance is showing the visibility tanking again across the area
overnight through daybreak, and then improvement by late morning.
This area concides with favorable conditions including light
winds, snow pack, saturated boundary layer, and fog already with
LIFR conditions.
I have also increased the magnitude and north/northwest exent of
POPs for the rain event on Saturday. Guidance trends starting this
afternoon with some of the CAMS and RAP along with newer 00Z
guidance are showing the northern extent of rain with the
deformation zone attendant with the upper low will push into
parts of metro St. Louis. There will be a sharp cut-off and
present indications are that at least St. Louis County/City and
points east/south will see afternoon rain. The RAP mid-level
omega/uvv, mid-level frontogenesis, and QPF would suggest all of
metro St. Louis will see rain in the afternoon. Ultimately this
may occur but will defer to later forecasts when the entire 00Z
suite is available.
Glass
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog is expected overnight into Saturday morning across
northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois. An advisory has
been issued for this area.
- Rain will impact southwest and south-central Illinois, southeast
Missouri, and parts of east-central Missouri on Saturday,
especially in the afternoon, exiting in the evening.
- Mild and mostly dry weather is expected after Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
Main issue in the very short term will be the possible
redevelopment of dense fog across portions of northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois by late this evening. The latest
forecast soundings indicate that there will still be plenty of low
level moisture, light winds and warm air over cold ground, thus
dense fog may return to this area by late this evening. However,
there is still a bit of uncertainty on density and coverage, thus
will hold off on any new headlines at this time.
Otherwise, light rain will be moving into the region early Saturday
morning through Saturday evening, mainly south of I-70. The majority
of the latest CAM model runs are in good agreement with the
strength, location and timing of the surface low as it lifts
northeast out of Louisiana into eastern Kentucky by Saturday
evening. The forecast area will remain on the north side of the
system with a deformation zone developing across portions of
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. So this will be where the
highest amounts of rain will fall. Up to a quarter of an inch (30-
60% probability) of rain is possible south of I-44 in Missouri and I-
70 in Illinois. As for any chance of snow, the speed and timing of
the system will usher out the precipitation before the colder air
moves in, so no snow expected as the system exits the area.
Lows tonight will remain rather mild, in the 30s, around 15 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Highs on Saturday will be in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Then as the colder air moves in Saturday
night, lows will dip down into the low 30s for most of the area,
while far eastern portions of the area will be in the mid to upper
30s.
Byrd
&&
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
After a near normal day on Sunday, mostly dry and above normal
temperatures are expected next week. However, the latest
deterministic as well as ensembles indicate that we will be under
northwest flow aloft initially. By Tuesday, a shortwave will slide
southeast into the region dragging a cold front through the area.
The latest LREF cluster analysis indicates some location, timing and
strength differences among the ensembles with around 20 to 30
percent of it`s members spitting out a couple hundredths of
precipitation with it across the forecast area. However, confidence
is low at this time so will stick with the latest NBM solution with
a dry frontal passage. There will be weak CAA on back side of the
front as temperatures will be a tad cooler but remain a bit above
normal through Wednesday.
Then by late week an upper level ridge will build into the central
CONUS with even warmer temperatures and dry conditions.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
Stratus and fog continues to blanket the region. There has been
some improvement in the St. Louis region and its terminals
(KSTL/KSUS/KCPS) to low-end MVFR and that should persist for at
least awhile this evening, and then we expect deteriorating
conditions overnight to LIFR-IFR with these conditions persisting
through the day on Saturday.
IFR flight conditions currently at the mid-MO terminals
(KJEF/COU) should deteriorate to LIFR late this evening or
overnight and persist through the day Saturday.
KUIN remains LIFR and no improvement is expected. There is
potential for VLIFR conditions overnight and into early Saturday
morning if dense fog redevelops.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for Adams IL-Brown
IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
908 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
GOES-16 Satellite trends depict a mid-level shortwave trough over
East Texas. Meanwhile, surface analysis places a quasi-stationary
boundary from western North Carolina back through the northern
Gulf Coast. An embedded surface low along the front is located
near Port Arthur, Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show the
leading edge of rain located over southern Arkansas and into west
central Mississippi. As of 8 PM CST, temperatures are in the
upper 40s to 50s across the Mid-South.
Short term models including CAMs indicate the aforementioned rain
will spread north into north Mississippi and portions of east
Arkansas in the next few hours, then gradually spread across the
remainder of the area overnight into Saturday morning. Some
elevated thunder is possible late tonight into Saturday south of
I-40. Will make some minor adjustments to the onset of rain
chances. Otherwise, the forecast overall is in great shape.
CJC
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
A low pressure system will track from the Texas Gulf coast into
east Tennessee tonight through Saturday night bringing another
round of rain and a few thunderstorms to the Mid-South. Dry
weather and colder temperatures will return to the region for
Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will warm to around 60 on Tuesday
ahead of the next cold front. This dry cold front will move
through the region Tuesday night bringing temperatures back to
seasonal levels for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
Skies remain cloudy across much of the Mid-South this afternoon
with temperatures ranging from around 50 degrees to the mid 60s.
A surface low pressure system is expected to develop over along
the Texas Gulf Coast by this evening and start tracking northeast
into central Mississippi by Saturday morning. As the low gets
closer to the Mid-South, rain will start to move into the region
from south to north becoming widespread after midnight. A few
thunderstorms are possible mainly after midnight. Rainfall could
become heavy over portions of north Mississippi with the extreme
southern portions of the Mid-South in a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall. Temperatures will remain above normal tonight with lows
Saturday morning in the lower 40s to mid 50s.
On Saturday, the surface low will track northeast across north
Alabama and into southeast Tennessee with more rain and a few
thunderstorms possible. Total rainfall from tonight through
Saturday afternoon should be between 1.00 and 1.75 inches.
Extensive cloud cover and rain should keep temperatures on the
cool side on Saturday with highs in the mid 40s to mid 60s. As the
surface low moves further northeast Saturday night, rain will be
ending across the region. High pressure will build into the Plains
bringing colder air to the region with lows Sunday morning in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.
As the high pressure system builds east, dry weather and below
normal temperatures are expected for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
will rebound some on Tuesday as south winds will bring milder air
into the region. A dry cold front will sweep through the region
Tuesday night. As a result temperatures will drop some for
Wednesday and Thursday returning to near normal levels.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
MVFR will prevail this evening, north of a stationary surface
front across central/southern MS. A frontal wave will move along
this boundary overnight, as an upper low approaches. A quick 1 to
hour transition to IFR CIGs appear likely, as persistent SRHA and
cold advection strengthen the moist low level inversion.
The low pressure system will not be vertically-stacked as it lifts
through the Midsouth Saturday afternoon. A brief period of LLWS
appears probable, as northerly winds near 35KT at FL020 override
ENE surface winds.
HRRR indicates some TS possible 18Z, as the cold core upper level
low moves through. Confidence isn`t high enough at this time to
include TS in the TAFs. Will reevaluate for the 06Z TAFs.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...PWB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
645 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-NWS Marquette record warm min temp for today, the 26th, will
easily be broken (previous: 26, 2012)
-Periods of fog/low clouds will persist into Saturday morning as
moist dewpoints remain over snowpack in the low levels. Fog
could be dense and widespread at times.
-While weather appears to be mostly quiet, the unseasonably warm
temperatures look to persist through at least the first week of
February.
-A clipper moving through early next week will bring chances
for some light snow Monday night through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024
RAP 500mb analysis and water vapor imagery shows a shortwave over
eastern IA poised to move through northern IL early this evening and
then through southern Lower Mi later tonight. Another weaker
shortwave over eastern MN is expected to move east across Upper Mi
late tonight and early Sat. QG forcing and deeper moisture on the
northern periphery of the shortwave to the south is still supporting
rain showers this afternoon over south central portions of Upper Mi.
Upslope aided dz into north central sections of the UP generally
ended early this afternoon. Temperatures (and dew points) remain
well above normal today with readings in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon.
The big story tonight will be warm, moist air over the existing cold
snowpack continuing to support fog and low clouds tonight into Sat
morning with the fog likely becoming dense and widespread at times
across the U.P. The track of the southern shortwave through
Lower Mi and associated forcing and deeper moisture on the
northern periphery will again probably support mostly drizzle or
rain over south central and eastern sections of the U.P.
tonight. The weaker shortwave moving in from the west could
maybe support some light mixed pcpn over western and north
central late tonight, but moisture is much shallower with this
feature, making the prospect of any pcpn at all questionable.
Temps will probably not drop much at all from daytime highs and
could remain above freezing for many locations tonight given the
persistent clouds and low-level moisture. The record warm minimum
temperature here at NWS Marquette for today will easily be broken.
It`s currently 35F and the temperature likely won`t fall below 33F
by midnight which was the low this morning. The record warm
minimum temperature for the date is 26F set in 2012.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024
The main story in the extended period is the ongoing warm spell
across the Upper Great Lakes. Nearly every ensemble member of the EC
and GEFS suggests positive temperature anomalies will persist
through the first week of February. While this doesn`t mean we won`t
get cold enough to see some snow, it does support high confidence
(75%) that we won`t see highs in the teens anytime soon.
Additionally, average overnight lows here at our office in Negaunee
Township are +6F and +5F for this period. This warm airmass over the
region will support overnight lows in the 20s. Some nights we might
see lows upwards of 20F above normal in some locations.
The drizzly/fogging conditions may persist Saturday morning, but
some model soundings show enough dry air at the surface helping to
improve conditions by afternoon in some locations. There`s also
potential for fog to redevelop Saturday night. Gloomy overcast skies
will likely persist into Sunday. The next best chance for precip
will be Monday night and Tuesday when a weak clipper dives out of
central Canada into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Rain can`t be
ruled out initially in some places, but ptype appears to be mostly
widespread light snow. Limited QPF associated with this system would
likely yield only a couple inches at most.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024
With an unseasonably warm and moist airmass in place along with a
softening/ripening snowpack, low clouds and mist/fog will continue
to be an issue thru this fcst period. Although IWD has improved to
MVFR, expect low clouds to redevelop this evening, dropping
conditions thru IFR to LIFR by late evening. Some improvement to IFR
is expected by late Sat morning. At CMX conditions have very
recently improved to MVFR. This should be a temporary condition.
Expect IFR to prevail thru Sat at CMX, though developing upslope
westerly winds on Sat may result in LIFR hanging on. Conditions at
SAW have also very recently improved to MVFR. As with CMX, this
should be a temporary condition. Expect LIFR to set in again by late
evening, continuing into Sat morning. Conditions will likely be at
airfield landing mins, and there is some potential to fall blo
landing mins overnight. With winds becoming downslope w to nw on
Sat, expect improvement to IFR and potentially to MVFR mid to late
aftn.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 216 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024
Light winds persist overnight with winds increasing to near 20 kts
by morning across the west half under southwest flow. Winds lighten
through the day though as they slowly become more northwesterly.
From there, winds look to remain at or below 20 knots through at
least Monday night/Tuesday. A clipper will move through the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes at that point and southwest flow ahead of the
system may climb to 20-30 kts. Northerly to northwesterly winds
behind the system may also increase to 20-30kts.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
922 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
Radiational cooling has led to some patchy dense fog forming
across the area. This shouldn`t stick around for too much longer
as clouds are starting to build in in association with the
expected storm system. Gradient winds will also increase which
will further assist in dissipating the fog. CAMs are in good
agreement tonight with showers entering our extreme SW counties as
early as midnight tonight. Expect showers to become widespread
overnight and into the day Saturday. In regards to severe weather,
it`s worth noting that the 00Z HRRR and high-res NAM are both
highlighting our southeastern counties for possible stronger
storms Saturday afternoon. Both models have 400-700 J/KG surface
CAPE, and a few hundred J/KG of mid-level and most unstable CAPE,
lending to some hail potential. I compared this with the 12Z run
of the HREF and CAPE is a bit lower there, however, there is still
around 200 J/KG. 0-6km shear and storm- relative helicity values
are also healthy enough to support stronger storms. All of this
to say there could certainly be a few strong storms tomorrow,
especially across our southern- most counties. As mentioned in the
previous forecast update, the track of the surface low will be
the key tomorrow. If it tracks further west as these CAMs are
painting it to, then the severe threat will be higher.
Rain and the potential for flooding will also be something else
to keep an eye on with this system since everything is still so
saturated. PWAT values are over 1" so healthy rainfall rates are
expected. We`re still on track to receive an additional 1" to 2"
of rain by Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday Night)
Issued at 125 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
Fog held on across our southern counties for awhile this morning,
but with that behind us, we`ve been left with dry conditions
(thankfully) and the sun peeking out in many areas across Middle TN
this afternoon. Temperatures have responded, running a couple of
degrees above forecast highs. Clouds will start to fill back in this
evening ahead of our next weather maker, due to start moving into
the mid-state after midnight. Models have been very consistent with
the development of a surface low to our southwest and it tracking
from east Mississippi, up through north Alabama and towards
Knoxville. This trajectory, if it holds true, is mostly good news
for Middle TN counties. It should keep most of the instability to
our south and only allow for some isolated to scattered thunder late
tomorrow morning and into the afternoon hours. While on the
whole, the HREF agrees with this, one member, the HRRR is a little
more aggressive with the CAPE in our southeast counties due to a
slightly more western surface low track, but as it is the outlier,
will stick with the consensus and the lower values. The track of
the surface low will need to be monitored, but really believe the
only consequence for us would be a little more thunder across the
area. Severe weather, if any, should occur well south of the mid-
state. What we will have to watch closely is the rainfall. Current
QPF values are running 1 to 2 inches (higher amounts across the
southeast and southern Plateau counties). On any other day, these
numbers are very manageable. However, with recent rains leaving
grounds saturated, some localized flooding issues could become a
problem by late tomorrow morning. These should not be widespread,
so I`m going to refrain from issuing another Flood Watch, but if
QPFs tick up overnight, we may need to consider one. Today will
likely be our saving grace, with the dry conditions helping to get
rid of the excess water. Speaking of excess water, the Duck River
is running a little high right now, with one forecast point in
Action Stage. Tomorrow`s rainfall could exacerbate river levels by
the end of the weekend, so keep an eye on this if you live in
river flood prone areas. Who said we were in a drought?
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
On the back side of tomorrow`s system, there is some question as to
how cold we`re going to get. Thickness values would suggest we`ll be
too warm, but the Plateau is The Great Humbler when it comes to
winter weather, so I`ll leave a very short period of a rain/snow mix
in the forecast Sunday evening, but no accumulations are expected at
this time. With wet and warm grounds, it would take quite a bit to
get snow to pile up, anyway.
That should be the bulk of the excitement over the next 7 days. A
clipper, being shown in the GFS and Euro Tue/Wed next week could
bring some light rain, but this mid-week system`s biggest threat is
to drop morning lows back towards normal by the end of the next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
Mostly VFR conditions prevail late this afternoon, but conditions
will deteriorate again between 01Z and 03Z as cloud heights lower
to MVFR. Fog will also be likely after 06Z across the Plateau,
including KCSV. Cigs will continue to lower to IFR to LIFR after
12Z as rain moves into the area once again. Conditions are
expected to stay this low with poor visibility at times as rain
continues through the day Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 47 53 42 46 / 70 100 50 30
Clarksville 43 49 40 45 / 60 100 80 20
Crossville 45 56 37 40 / 40 100 80 50
Columbia 47 53 40 45 / 80 100 40 10
Cookeville 47 54 39 41 / 50 100 70 50
Jamestown 43 54 37 40 / 30 100 80 60
Lawrenceburg 48 55 41 45 / 80 100 40 10
Murfreesboro 47 55 40 45 / 70 100 50 30
Waverly 44 49 39 43 / 80 100 60 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Clements
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
543 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 135 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
The current weather has an upper level low(per WV imagery) over
the South Plains near Lubbock. Showers over the Big Country moving
east with additional showers developing to our west. The Hi-Res
models like the HRRR are indicating another round of scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms across mainly the Big Country this
afternoon and evening as the upper storm system lifts northeast.
A few strong storms are possible with the main hazards being
dangerous cloud to ground lightning, small hail and gusty winds.
The rain will end late tonight and going with a dry forecast
across the remainder of the area for the next 24 hours. A cold
front will move south across the area tonight with winds a little
gusty behind the front. Lows will be 40 to 45 and highs Saturday
will be in the mid 50s to around 60.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 135 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
From Sunday through Tuesday next week, northwest flow will
transition into zonal flow aloft. As a strong upper low moves
south/southeast through the Great Lakes, weak ridging will
develop over Texas Wednesday and Thursday. This pattern will
result in generally dry weather, and warmer than normal
temperatures. Highs will are expected to be in the mid 60s to
around 70 degrees, with lows generally in the mid 30s to lower
40s.
By the end of the week, upper level troughing impacting the
western U. S. will approach the area, bringing the next chance
for precipitation Friday into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
With the cold core aloft of the upper low and trough entering the
area from the northwest, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms have redeveloped late this afternoon. A couple of
strong storms with hail and gusty winds are possible through early
this evening, in the area south of I-20 in the Concho Valley and
Heartland areas. This convection will move out of the area prior
to Midnight. Winds early this evening vary from east at KABI and
northeast at KBBD, to west or west- northwest at our other TAF
sites. A secondary cold front will move south across the area
tonight, with somewhat gusty north-northwest winds expected
overnight following its passage. Low cloud cover wrapping around
the back side of the aforementioned upper system will affect
northern, central and eastern parts of the area later tonight into
mid-morning Saturday with MVFR to IFR ceilings. Expect clearing
skies by afternoon. Through most of the day, north-northwest
winds will be generally 10-15 knots with some gusts near 20 knots
possible.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 42 56 33 62 / 40 0 0 0
San Angelo 42 59 32 63 / 10 0 0 0
Junction 42 61 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
Brownwood 42 56 33 61 / 50 0 0 0
Sweetwater 40 56 34 61 / 50 0 0 0
Ozona 41 60 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
Brady 44 56 34 61 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
542 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog looks to develop tonight. Widespread dense fog is not
expected, although some locations may drop below 1 mile visibility
at times.
- Precipitation chances are trending south of the forecast area late
tonight into Saturday morning.
- Skies clear into Sunday with warm and dry conditions through
most of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
20Z water vapor imagery shows the upper trough axis extending from
west TX through the central Plains, followed by a ridge moving
onshore of the Pacific coast. The surface pattern depicts low
pressure centered near the TX/NM border in response to the upper
trough, while high pressure dominates SD/NE. Moisture remains
trapped in the low levels, keeping stubborn stratus around which has
prevented temperatures from getting out of the 30s so far today. The
far southeastern CWA may get to 40 with only a degree to go; overall
the window for much additional warming is closing, so have bumped
highs down a bit in east central KS.
The track of the upper low tonight into Saturday morning continues
to take it along the Red River valley. As such, precipitation
probabilities continue to trend further south and have decided
to go with a dry forecast. The HREF keeps any chances of at
least 0.01" of QPF south of the area, and all individual CAMs
keep rain confined to southeastern KS as the low moves east into
Saturday morning. A couple early runs of the HRRR this morning
had some light reflectivity grazing the southeast edge of the
CWA, but even it is now keeping everything south. This makes
sense given that forecast soundings still indicate much of the
ascent is within the mid-level dry air, and then transitions to
subsidence within the low-level stratus deck.
The bigger weather story for tonight into the morning is the return
of fog, although not to the extent it has been the last several
days. The stronger signal for widespread dense fog is focused in
central KS/NE closer to the center of the sfc high, where SREF
probabilities for visibility less than 1 mile are greater than 70%.
Meanwhile in our area, there appears to be just enough wind
overnight to keep the moisture as a low stratus deck with patchy fog
development. Forecast soundings, ensemble probabilities,
deterministic models, and MOS data all give the general idea that
any one location could see visibility fall below 1 mile at some
point overnight (mainly 20% chance, around 50% along western edge of
CWA). However, this doesn`t appear widespread or persistent enough
to warrant a headline. Motorists should be cautious if quickly
encountering lower visibilities while driving.
The upper trough axis gets east of the area Saturday afternoon,
although the stratus takes time to scour out with skies not clearing
until Saturday night for western areas, but mainly into Sunday for
most locations. From there, upper ridging amplifies and becomes
dominant over the western CONUS early next week. These rising
heights as well as downslope low-level flow will aid in a warm-up
with highs into the 40s on Sunday and then 50s on Monday and
Tuesday. The 12Z model suite has a back door cold front potentially
pushing through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday associated
with a clipper system passing through the Great Lakes region. This
looks to cool temperatures down slightly, back to the 40s on
Wednesday, but we should return to the 50s for Thursday and Friday
as the ridge axis passes overhead.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024
Confidence remains high that IFR cigs will lower to LIFR cigs
soon after sunset this evening. MVFR and possible IFR fog could
also impact airports tonight and early Saturday. Amendments to
the current visibility forecast may be needed, with confidence
not as high in how low visibilities will drop. Fog should then
dissipate and cigs should improve back to IFR conditions
Saturday morning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Teefey