Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/26/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
859 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2024
.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies tonight as an upper level ridge
builds over the region. This has allowed areas of dense fog to
form in the Lower Treasure Valley, Upper Weiser Basin and Baker
Valley. Fog has been persistent in the Lower Treasure Valley
and Upper Weiser Basin most of today which isn`t likely to
change overnight tonight. In addition, surface temperatures
around freezing within the fog could allow for patches of ice to
form on cold surfaces. Thus, have issued an Dense Fog Advisory.
The fog will likely last into early Friday afternoon
dissipating with the approaching warm front. The front will
move from southwest to northeast Friday afternoon through
Saturday morning. Precipitation is expected across Southeast
Oregon and parts of southwest Idaho. Snow levels around 3500
feet Friday will rise to near 8000 feet by Saturday afternoon.
Have updated forecast to include dense fog which will be out
shortly.
&&
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR through the evening. LIFR/IFR in fog and
low stratus in most terminals north of a KBOI-KBNO line
reforming tonight, with the the Baker Valley/Lower Treasure
Valley/Weiser Basin (KBKE-KONO) seeing the thickest fog with
visibilities less than 1/4SM at times. A band of mixed
precipitation will move into SE OR by early afternoon and SW ID
by early evening, with snow levels beginning at 4k-5k feet MSL
and quickly increasing to 6k-7k feet MSL by Sat./06Z. Mountain
obscuration in low clouds/precipitation. Surface winds: SW to
NW 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10- 20 kt.
Weekend Outlook...Periods of MVFR/IFR and mountain obscurations
in mixed precipitation across SE Oregon/SW Idaho on Saturday.
Showers will diminish on Sunday. Snow levels will be around
6k-7k feet MSL through the weekend. Generally light and
variable winds 5-15 kt.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Skies have
partially cleared and temps were able to surpass forecast
highs. Patches of dense fog linger in the valleys this
afternoon. Jerome/ID and Ontario/OR are especially foggy.
With recent rain and snow and only light winds afterward,
fog will likely expand in the valleys tonight and Friday
morning, especially in the lower Treasure Valley, eastern
Baker County, and the Upper Weiser River Valley. In the
hi-res models the NAMNest seems to have too much fog; HRRR
is more realistic. The foggy Lower Treasure Valley may stay
cool all day Friday and again Saturday. This signal was in
yesterday`s models, too, but we had doubts then. This time
we have lowered high temps closer to the model highs.
The next Pacific warm front will spread snow and rain across
eastern Oregon Friday, with a 60-80 percent chance in Harney
County and a 30-60 percent chance in Malheur and Baker Counties
in the afternoon. On Friday night and Saturday the main rain
and mountain snow will be north of Burns/OR-Ontario/OR-Sun
Valley/ID, again a 60-90 percent chance, but only a 30-50
percent chance in the Treasure Valley, tapering to 10 percent
in the Magic Valley south to the ID/NV border. Light rain and
high- mountain snow will continue in northern-most mountains
Saturday night, but end in central and southern areas. Behind,
the warm front snow levels will rise rapidly in the mountains,
all the way to 7500 feet MSL in Idaho and 8500 feet in Oregon
by Sunday morning. Valley temps will begin to climb Saturday
but even warmer days will come early next week. Winds through
Saturday will be mainly from the east 5 to 15 mph. Afternoon
gusts will reach 20 to 30 mph in the Snake Basin east of Boise
Friday and Saturday.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...An upper level ridge will
amplify over the West and push moisture to the north/east out of
the forecast area beginning Sunday. The ridge axis will reside
over the Northern Rockies through Wednesday, supporting southwest
flow aloft and warming temperatures over the forecast area.
Temperatures could reach roughly 10 degrees above normal during
this time, as long as fog and stratus do not interrupt daytime
heating. As valley inversions strengthen under the ridge, air
stagnation and the buildup of pollutants will become a concern.
Thereafter, long range guidance indicates a cool Pacific trough
will move into the PacNW by late in the week, spreading
precipitation and cooler temperatures across eastern Oregon and
southwest Idaho by Thursday or Friday. Breezy winds are
anticipated behind the associated cold front.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST Friday IDZ012-033.
OR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST Friday ORZ064.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....SH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1017 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail tonight. A cold front will approach
Friday and stall near or over the area. A secondary cold front
will push through early Sunday, followed by high pressure into
the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Low stratus and fog has steadily spread through the most of the
coastal counties this evening, particularly the SC counties, with
some locations dipping to 1/4SM or less vsby. But dense fog has
been a bit transient in nature and recent satellite fog imagery
suggests that fog/stratus may be thinning back out a bit. I was
on the cusp of issuing a Dense Fog Advisory, but have decided to
hold off for now given the trends. But we have issued an SPS
addressing the dense fog. Will continue to monitor trends.
Otherwise, there are some showers out there that will be
pressing into the region from the south and west through the
night. I have maintained low end precip chances pressing
eastward through the CWA overnight, although recent HRRR runs
suggest much of the activity will thin out.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Aloft, a large ridge will extend across the western Atlantic while a
deep trough extending across the Central United States slowly nudges
eastward with a series of h5 shortwaves traversing its base, then
shifting to the northeast. At the sfc, a light southerly wind will
keep the local area warm-sectored Friday (highs in the mid-upper
70s) while a cold front likely stalls over the area or just inland.
Latest guidance suggests conditions could start off dry during
morning hours, before shower and thunderstorm coverage expands
across inland areas late morning and afternoon as stronger mid-lvl
forcing and the front approaches from the west. Precip coverage
should wane Friday night, but temps will remain mild. Lows should
only dip into the upper 50s/lower 60s. Saturday should be another
warm day (highs in the mid-upper 70s and possibly around 80 degrees
across southeast Georgia) as the local area remains warm-sectored
once again ahead of a more substantial re-enforcing cold front
tracking across the Deep South. Scattered to numerous showers along
with a few thunderstorms remain in the forecast with greatest precip
coverage initially inland Saturday morning/afternoon where the
lingering/stalled front from the prior day resides, before activity
shifts toward coastal areas Saturday night as the cold front tracks
across the region late. On Sunday, the front will be shifting
offshore early with dry and cooler high pressure in its wake. Expect
dry conditions across all areas by Sunday afternoon with highs
generally in the mid-upper 60s.
Fog remains a concern across southeast South Carolina and southeast
Georgia Friday night and potentially Saturday night before gradually
dissipating within an hour or two after sunrise. Guidance continues
to indicate the potential for dense fog as sfc dewpts approach the
low-mid 60s and southerly winds remain rather light. Dense Fog
Advisories could eventually be needed.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry and cooler high pressure will spread across the region early
next week behind a departing cold front, but the airmass should
slowly modify heading through the middle of next week. Expect temps
to drop to near normal initially behind fropa, before gradually
warming into the low-mid 60s by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS and KSAV: A period of VFR conditions is anticipated at the
terminals this evening. But MVFR ceilings will be returning by
mid-late evening with possible IFR-LIFR conditions developing
late overnight into Friday morning. Some vsby restrictions are
possible as well. Gradual improvement back to MVFR will take
shape later Friday morning followed by VFR during the afternoon.
KJZI: Proximity of marine fog along the coast makes for a tricky
forecast here. Per recent OBS and satellite data, it appears
that marine fog has already spread into the KJZI terminal early
this evening producing LIFR conditions. Unclear if marine fog is
locked in for the night however and conditions may end up
bouncing back to MVFR or better this evening. But IFR to LIFR
conditions should ultimately set-in overnight and persist into
Friday morning. Gradual improvement follows back to MVFR later
Friday morning and through the afternoon.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely at times
through Saturday night due to low clouds and showers impacting the
terminals. Additionally, low vsbys are possible within fog during
the late night/morning hours through early Sunday. VFR conditions
are then expected at all terminals Sunday afternoon through the
middle of next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Per satellite imagery and forecast guidance, widespread marine
fog appears a near certainty in the coastal waters through the
night and Friday morning. Thus, I`ve extended the Dense Fog
Advisory out through noon Friday. Will be monitoring fog
development in Charleston Harbor through the evening for
possible inclusion the advisory as well.
Previous discussion...
The main concern overnight continues to be sea fog. We`ve seen
fairly dense fog along the GA coast extending up along the
Beaufort County coast today and are now getting reports of dense
fog along the Charleston County coast near Folly Beach. All
indications are that this fog will expand to the north this
evening and overnight, likely resulting in Dense Fog Advisories
for all nearshore coastal waters at some point. Most guidance
shows this fog expanding into land areas later tonight so we
expect dense fog to also impact Charleston Harbor eventually.
Friday through Tuesday: High pressure will prevail across the
western Atlantic heading into the weekend while a series of low
pressure systems pass inland. The high is will retreat further
offshore late weekend as a strong cold front advances offshore early
Sunday. Cooler high pressure will build in wake in the front, then
gradually modify heading through early next week. Ahead of the cold
front, southerly winds should remain around 10-15 kt or less with
seas no higher than 3-5 ft (largest offshore). Winds/seas should
then increase/build late Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the approaching cold front, then quickly reach Small Craft
Advisory levels across most local waters as strong cold air
advection takes place behind the front shifting offshore. Seas up to
5-7 ft and winds gusting up to 25-30 kt will be common Sunday
afternoon through early Monday. High pressure will then prevail
through early week with winds/seas returning to below Small Craft
Advisory levels across all waters.
Sea fog: Southerly winds will continue to usher warm, moist air over
the cooler shelf waters. This will likely lead to the development of
sea fog within the marine zones. If conditions warrant, Dense Fog
Advisories could be needed for portions of the coastal waters. The
high humidity air is expected to linger into Saturday night, thus
sea fog will be a concern until then.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
January 25:
KCHS: 61/1990
January 26:
KCHS: 59/1949
KCXM: 60/2021
KSAV: 64/2021
January 27:
KSAV: 63/1950
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ330.
Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST Friday for AMZ350-352-354-
374.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Adam
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...Adam/DPB
MARINE...Adam/DPB/JRL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
429 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 144 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2024
Breezy winds and mountain snow showers Friday morning as the next
system quickly swings through the region. Drier and warmer weather
conditions expected this weekend and heading into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2024
Quiet and dry weather conditions with near seasonal temperatures can
be expected for the remainder of today. Winds will continue to be on
the breezy side of things, out of the west at 10 to 20 mph with
higher gusts possible through the evening.
The next system will begin moving into the region this evening and
overnight timeframe. This upcoming shortwave system will not be
strong by all means as it digs and pivots across central/northern
NM, really limiting precipitation chances areawide. That said,
northern portions of the forecast area, especially the
Gila/Sacramento Mtns will have the greatest chances of seeing
precipitation. Highest elevations, mainly above 7500/8000 feet may
see a few inches of snow by the afternoon hours Friday. As of
now, we`re calling for 1-4 inches in places like Cloudcroft and
other areas along the Sacramento Mtn ridgeline. That being said,
we are electing to not issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the
Sacramento Mtns during this forecast package, solely based on
highest confidence in snowfall totals lying between the 1-3 inch
range.
However, we`ve seen this in years past where these shortwave-like
systems swing across central/northern and westerly flow near the
based of the trough lies perpendicular to the Sacs, leading to
strong upslope flow and dumping heavy snow. I`m not saying this will
happen, a small gamut of the high resolution guidance is hinting
at it. But like aforementioned above, high confidence right now
sides with the 1-4 inch range for the mountains above 7500/8000
feet, remaining below headline criteria.
Weather pattern for the weekend and into next week will transition
into a drier and warmer scenario. Model guidance and their respected
ensemble suites show good confidence in the strengthening of an
upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest/Pacific Coast vicinity,
promoting dry water and above average temperatures locally.
Looking further ahead, in the extended forecast. Climate outlooks
favor wetter than normal weather for the first half of February. We
will be keeping an eye out for this signal in a week or so.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2024
VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW050 becoming BKN-OVC100-150. A
quick moving system is expected to affect the area overnight
tonight. Latest HRRR and NAM Nest show a cluster of showers moving
through the area between 5 and 9z, which would bring some rain to
most of the TAF sites, but confidence of occurrence is too low to
include in TAFs at this time. Otherwise, expect winds to subside
at all sites after dark, except maybe at ELP, before increasing
again tomorrow afternoon with speeds around 10 to 15 knots and
gusts up to 25 knots. Direction will favor west for much of the
period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2024
Fire weather conditions are low through the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will run a few degrees warmer than yesterday with Min
RHs above 30 areawide. Winds will be breezy at 10-20 mph with Fair
smoke ventilation rates. Next system moves through during the
overnight hours and into the day on Friday. Winds will be breezy out
of the northwest with mountains snow showers and isolated lowland
rain showers.
Drier and warmer weather conditions return this weekend and into
next week. Min RHs will dip into to 20-30s with above average
temperatures, along with light winds and generally Poor to Fair
smoke ventilation rates.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 42 62 37 61 / 20 10 0 0
Sierra Blanca 35 55 29 54 / 10 10 0 0
Las Cruces 36 59 32 57 / 20 0 0 0
Alamogordo 34 55 28 56 / 30 20 0 0
Cloudcroft 23 31 19 37 / 70 50 10 0
Truth or Consequences 36 57 32 56 / 20 0 0 0
Silver City 33 49 29 53 / 30 0 0 0
Deming 35 59 31 58 / 10 0 0 0
Lordsburg 36 55 28 57 / 30 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 40 59 35 58 / 20 0 0 0
Dell City 33 59 29 58 / 10 10 0 0
Fort Hancock 36 61 31 61 / 10 10 0 0
Loma Linda 36 52 31 52 / 20 10 0 0
Fabens 39 61 33 61 / 10 10 0 0
Santa Teresa 37 57 30 56 / 20 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 41 59 37 57 / 30 10 0 0
Jornada Range 33 57 29 57 / 20 10 0 0
Hatch 33 60 31 59 / 20 10 0 0
Columbus 39 57 34 57 / 10 0 0 0
Orogrande 36 55 29 55 / 40 10 0 0
Mayhill 28 47 24 50 / 20 20 0 0
Mescalero 28 43 22 47 / 50 40 10 0
Timberon 25 44 20 47 / 30 20 0 0
Winston 28 48 24 52 / 30 0 0 0
Hillsboro 31 55 29 55 / 10 0 0 0
Spaceport 32 56 29 56 / 20 10 0 0
Lake Roberts 28 49 24 55 / 40 0 0 0
Hurley 31 54 26 55 / 20 0 0 0
Cliff 33 57 27 61 / 40 0 0 0
Mule Creek 32 52 28 57 / 40 0 0 0
Faywood 33 54 30 54 / 10 0 0 0
Animas 34 55 29 58 / 10 0 0 0
Hachita 36 55 31 56 / 10 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 36 57 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 35 52 33 53 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
244 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense freezing fog will return to areas generally east of the
Colorado border tonight into midday Friday.
- Light rain and snow will impact the region tonight through
Friday. The anticipated storm system track has shifted further
south compared to Wednesday, keeping best chances for
precipitation south of the Interstate, especially along/south
of Highway 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 204 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2024
Across the area this afternoon, skies are mostly sunny to sunny with
the area finally parting with morning cloud cover. This is allowing
a range of temperatures as of 100 PM MST mainly in the 40s, with
some 50s in northeast Colorado. Winds are light and northerly.
For the remainder of the afternoon hours, full sunshine expected
area-wide. The current T/TD spreads will quickly tighten up as
sunset occurs increasing the low level RH around the CWA. Short term
guidance as a surface ridge building west overnight, and combined
with the meandering trough over eastern Colorado, is going to create
another round of fog/freezing fog. Models from the HRRR, NAMDNG, RAP
show fog forming east and build west overnight similar to the past
couple evenings. While fog will creep into almost the entire CWA,
the bulk of low vis fog will stay east of the Colorado border/
surface trough. As a result have issued another Dense Fog Advisory
for all zones east of the Colorado border from 00z-18z Friday.
As with previous guidance, a weak low will form on the south end of
the trough and move S/SE through Friday. Most of the latest guidance
shift this further south than 24 hours ago. This will shift the bulk
of expected QPF further south of the area. This leaves the highest
chances for precip south of the Interstate, but mainly along/south
Highway 40. The northern fringe of the precip shield does arc
through the southern CWA on Friday, exiting quickly by the evening
hours. Any rain/snow totals have dropped as well w/ best chances in
areas south of I-70 in Colorado, but even there will be mixed with
some light rain. Fog will end up being the biggest factor at least
through midday. Towards the evening hours, skies will clear from the
end as precip ends east before 06z Saturday.
High pressure builds into the region to start off the upcoming
weekend with an increase in warmth, building through the weekend
into next week.
For temps, cloud cover, fog and expected light precipitation will
affect area numbers through Friday night. Highs on Friday will range
from the upper 30s east into the mid and upper 40s west/northwest.
Going into Saturday, upper 40s to lower 50s are expected. Overnight
lows tonight will range in the mid to upper 20s, shifting lower by a
few degrees area-wide for Friday/Saturday nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2024
The extended period continues to look tranquil along with the
increasing potential for well above normal temperatures.
Ridging will be prevalent across the Plains for nearly the entire
duration of the period. The ridging will bring very low if any
precipitation chances and well above normal temperatures. Current
visible satellite imagery continues to show a fairly large
swath of snowpack across the eastern counties and some draped
across Kit Carson and into western Rawlins county. With this in
mind and the lower snowfall totals for tomorrow, leading to an
increased confidence in no new snow pack I went ahead and
increased temperatures for the entire period; with the most
aggressive being towards the early to mid week as the EFI is
suggesting the relative warmest days to be during that time
frame.
RH values with the warmer temperatures are forecasted in the low 20s
across western portions of the area Tuesday and Wednesday and
may fall even further as we get closer. Not currently
anticipating any fire weather concerns given the prolonged snow
pack and no clear cut signals for any additional wind.
Looking just outside the time period, there is relatively decent
ensemble agreement in a large trough moving across the Plains along
with some colder air. Not going to go into any further detail into
this as it is still over a week out, but the overall warm and dry
conditions may be short lived.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2024
For KGLD, at this time VFR conditions are expected through the
forecast period. IFR fog from 1-2sm is possible from 06z-16z
Friday. Will be monitoring trends over the next couple
forecasts for more dense fog that may lower visibility further.
Winds north-northwest 5-10kts.
For KMCK, VFR conditions remain through about 05z Friday, then
mainly IFR to VLIFR conditions as low ceilings and dense fog
impact the terminal. Visibility down to less than a mile and
ceilings around OVC002 are expected. Winds light/variable.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Friday for
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...None.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Friday for
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
801 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of wintry precipitation moves in late tonight and
persists through Friday that will bring slick travel. High
pressure builds in late Saturday into Sunday morning. An area of
low pressure will track south of Cape Cod late Sunday into
Monday that will bring the potential for accumulating snow while
there continues to be some uncertainty in the track of the
system. High pressure then builds in for Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
8:00pm Update... Just minor adjustments based on trends so far
this evening. Slowed the cooling overnight as clouds are keeping
temps fairly steady at this hour. Also slightly delayed the
arrival of the precip late tonight based on the latest HRRR
guidance, but overall no notable changes.
Previous...
Latest RAP13 pressure analysis this afternoon shows the center of
sfc high pressure located over western ME with mid-level shortwave
ridging overhead. This has allowed for pockets of sunshine today
along with above normal temperatures well into the 40s south of the
mountains. Temperatures will be slow to cool through this evening
with dry conditions persisting and therefore no weather related
impacts are anticipated through the evening commute.
Later tonight, sfc high pressure will move offshore ahead of an
area of low pressure that will track along a stalled frontal
boundary that will be draped over southern New England. This
will result in increasing cloud cover this evening and overnight
before precipitation begins to overspread southern NH and
portions of western ME within a few hours either side of dawn on
Friday. A variety of precipitation types are expected with a
mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain for most, although
temperatures should be warm enough for mostly just plain rain in
the Manchester-Concord-Portsmouth corridor. As a result,
variable road conditions are likely for the morning commute. A
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for southwestern NH and
points north as this is where the greatest confidence for up to
around one tenth of an inch of ice accretion. Low temperatures
will range from the 20s to low 30s from north to south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure tracking just to our south on Friday will continue
to bring periods of precipitation to the area through the day.
Latest guidance brings h850 temperatures above 0C as far north
as the Lewiston, ME region and through the upper CT River Valley
in NH. Along and south of this line mixed wintry precipitation
can be expected with a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing
rain. The exception will be along the coast as well as in
southern NH where surface temperatures will rise above freezing
and therefore just plain rain is expected. The greatest ice
accumulations will be across the higher terrain of NH where
amounts of between 0.10-0.25" are possible. North of this line,
primarily snow can be expected with a general 3-6" of
accumulation. The greatest potential for at least 4" of snowfall
is across the western ME mountains and northwestern ME and
therefore a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued across this
region as well. Highs will range from the lower to middle 30s
across the north/interior to the upper 30s to near 40 degrees
along the coast and in southern NH.
Low pressure will exit to our east on Friday evening, bringing
an end to the stratiform precipitation. A few showers of
rain/snow may linger through the night but with little to no
additional accumulation. Low temperatures will fall into the 20s
to lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A surface trough will linger over the area Saturday maintaining
mostly cloudy skies. Weak high pressure will move over northern New
England Saturday night into Sunday morning. Low pressure will
develop near the Mid Atlantic coastline Sunday and track ENE south
of Cape Cod Sunday night. This system will spread a mix of rain and
snow into southern areas that will change to all snow Sunday night.
This system has the potential to produce several inches of snow
while the current track consensus keeps northern areas mostly dry
and the greatest precipitation focused along and south of the NH/MA
border. This system exits Monday with a narrow axis of high pressure
building in for Tuesday. A northern stream wave looks to cross New
England around Wednesday for some snow showers.
Saturday will feature mostly cloudy skies with low chances for
rain and snow showers in the morning. Highs will climb into the
mid to upper 30s with the mountains and far northern areas
staying below freezing. Temperatures will drop into the 20s
Saturday night before climbing into the upper 30s to near 40
degrees Sunday.
The Sunday into Monday system will involve an upper wave currently
dropping southeast across the Intermountain West that will swing
across the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday night. This wave will
lift NE across the Mid Atlantic with a surface low tracking
well southeast of Cape Cod. Recent runs of deterministic
guidance as well as the majority of ensembles indicate the bulk
of the QPF will pass south of the area, although there remains
potential for an axis of several inches of snow. Ensembles
suggest this axis of greatest snow will be centered along or
just south of the NH/MA border with snowfall amounts decreasing
to the north. Thermal profiles will be marginal when
precipitation breaks out across southern New Hampshire late
Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon leading to p-types to be a
mix of rain and snow or just rain. Thermal profiles will cool
Sunday night leading to snow being the dominant p-type into
Monday morning. Ensemble means show QPF of only 0.25 to 0.5
inches focused across southern areas while some of this will
fall as rain to start. Regardless there could be some slick
travel across the southern half of the area Monday morning from
snow covered roads.
The system exits Monday with precipitation tapering off Monday
afternoon. A narrow axis of high pressure builds in Tuesday for
fair weather. Global models suggest the next upper trough swings
through to close out the long term period on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...MVFR will deteriorate to IFR/LIFR late tonight and
persist through Friday as low pressure brings periods of mixed
wintry precipitation. Mainly RA is expected at KMHT, KCON, and
KPSM. A mixture of RASN and some PL is likely at KPWM, KAUG,
and KRKD. The same is true at KLEB and KHIE, although pockets of
-FZRA are also possible. Conditions will gradually improve on
Friday night with precipitation ending and ceilings lifting. No
LLWS is expected. Winds will largely remain below 20 kts out of
the NNE.
Long Term...Lingering low cigs could produce MVFR conditions
Saturday morning with conditions likely improving to VFR
Saturday afternoon into Sunday. The next system passes south of
New England Sunday night and Monday that could bring IFR
conditions in -RA changing to -SN and low cigs across southern
and coastal TAF sites. Conditions improve late MOnday with VFR
for Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Low pressure crosses south of the waters tonight
through Friday with NNE winds persisting. A few gusts up to
around 25 kts are possible across the outer waters but winds and
seas will largely remain below thresholds hazardous to small
crafts.
Long Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds Saturday
into Sunday. Low pressure passing south of Cape Cod Sunday night
and Monday will bring the potential for NE gales along the outer
waters and seas building up to 10 ft. Winds relax Monday night
into Tuesday whiles seas will remain elevated above 5 ft.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for
MEZ007>009.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for
NHZ001-002.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for
NHZ003>009-011-015.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Schroeter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
532 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 155 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
Well, the southern 2/3 of the CWA saw some sun today. Low clouds
are trying to hold tough under an inversion north of Brenham-
Trinity. Still holding out a little hope it`ll erode some from the
south before the sun goes down.
Otherwise, a dry tranquil evening is on tap. But with wet ground,
few-scattered clouds and light winds one would expect some fog
development overnight into Friday morning.
On Friday, surface high pressure will slide off to the east and
we`ll see a gradual return of Gulf moisture and cloud cover. Low
levels become increasingly saturated with time, and combined with
the sw flow aloft, anticipate that we will see areas of drizzle and
light rain begin developing across the region.
Friday night, the next upper trof currently in the New Mexico area
will close off and track across north Tx. Its associated
dryline/prefrontal trof will move into the area in the evening. This
and some dry slotting should bring precip to an end. Cold front
itself, and drier cooler air won`t be too far behind and pass
through during the late night hours. In all, rain totals should
generally be in the 0.10-0.30" range. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
The aforementioned cold front will be offshore by Saturday
morning. Northwest winds behind the front will push drier air into
southeast Texas. The lone wild card will be the potential for
moisture rapping around the departing low pressure system
associated with the front. For now, this rap around moisture can
be seen in our forecast as residual cloudiness across the northern
half of our CWA on Saturday. However, some of the guidance is
trying to throw in a few showers across the northern half of our
region. Something to monitor but keeping Saturday`s forecast dry
for now.
For the rest of the long term, an amplified mid/upper pattern
featuring troughing to our east and ridging to our west will keep
the synoptic mid/upper flow in a northwest regime. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure will dominate the low-levels. In other
words, the weather is looking pretty darn nice. Sunday`s temps are
forecast to skew a little cooler than normal with highs in the
upper 50s to around 60, and overnight lows falling into the 30s.
Only the urban heat island and immediate coast remain at or above
40 degrees. Monday to Wednesday will feature a slow warming trend.
By Wednesday, afternoon temps could be near 70 degrees with lows
generally in the 40s.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 524 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
Lingering MVFR/IFR CIGS currently in place over KCLL & KUTS
should fill back in across the rest of SE Texas tonight with
patchy to areas of fog developing overnight through the early
morning hours of Friday. Fog could become locally dense at times
during this period, bringing LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VIS. Fog should begin
to clear out late Friday morning. CIGS will gradually lift, but
remain around MVFR/IFR levels throughout the day. Light showers
and isolated thunderstorms develop Friday afternoon ahead of the
next front, which should push through the region Friday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
Light winds and low seas are expected tonight. patchy fog could
develop soon after sunset. However, the best chance of fog
development will be after midnight. Fog could linger at the coast
throughout the day on Friday and possibly into Friday night. Showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected Friday night into
early Saturday morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
Increasing northwest winds and increased seas are expected in the
front`s wake, likely warranting caution flags on Saturday and
Sunday. Winds and seas may reach advisory levels offshore over the
weekend. Lower winds and low seas are expected Monday and Tuesday
of next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 705 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
The Flood Watch was cancelled at 6AM CST Thursday morning for all
of Southeast Texas as the heavy rainfall threat has come to an
end. There will be an additional round of less significant rain on
late Friday as a cold front pushes through. Although the heavy
rainfall threat is over, numerous rivers and creeks continue to be
near or above bankfull leading to impassable roadways in multiple
locations that will likely persist for several days. As a result,
numerous Flood Warnings remain in effect across Southeast Texas
due to widespread flood gauge observations in minor/moderate flood
stage and a few that are projected to reach major flood stage
either today or on Friday. Please continue to heed the remaining
road closures and remember "Turn around, don`t drown".
You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 50 65 52 60 / 0 60 30 10
Houston (IAH) 53 66 55 64 / 10 70 60 10
Galveston (GLS) 55 61 56 61 / 10 60 60 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
548 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog develops again this evening through early tonight
mainly along and east of Hwy 83.
- High confidence in significant warming trend starting this
weekend and continuing into next week.
- Generally dry conditions with no measurable precipitation
expected until late next week at the earliest.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 213 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
Skies are clear this afternoon, though lingering cloudiness continues
to hold on east of Highway 183, and some remnant low clouds/fog remain
mainly across eastern Boyd county. With high pressure moving down over
the area tonight, expect good radiational cooling before high clouds
move in from the east late tonight. As has been the case the past few
days, cooling near the surface will be enhanced by the cold ground and
saturate the airmass from below with another round of dense fog developing
this evening through early tonight. Conditions will deteriorate quickest
near the better moisture in the east shortly after dark, then build
westward to the Highway 83 corridor by early tonight. Confidence
in fog further west is lower, though the signal for fog does
increase from Imperial through Ogallala, so have issued a Dense
Fog Advisory along and east of Highway 83 including far
southwest Nebraska tonight through tomorrow morning. Conditions
Friday morning may improve quicker than the past few days so may
be able to cancel early as conditions dictate. Given the cold
ground and good radiational cooling, lows tonight will range
from the mid teens across the northern panhandle to the low/mid
20s elsewhere. This will again create some slick spots on
elevated and untreated surfaces with potential for fog to
deposit some ice.
Energy moving out of the southern Rockies will drive development of
a surface low across the southern Plains tomorrow, but this will be
suppressed far enough to our south to keep any impacts out of our
area. So our Friday will see a good deal of sunshine west of Hwy 83
and north of I-80 but with low clouds/fog slow to erode conditions
to the east will take a while to match. Highs tomorrow range from
the low to mid 40s where there is more sun in the west, to lower
30s around Hwy 281 where clouds/fog hold on longer. The latest guidance
indicates the potential for fog tomorrow night may be a bit lower
and further to the east so confidence for more fog headlines
tomorrow night is medium to low at the current time. Lows Friday
night range from the middle teens northern panhandle, lower 20s
further to the southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement in building an expansive upper
ridge over the western US this weekend and continuing into next week.
Temperatures aloft will be at or above the 90th percentile by
Monday and EFI/SoT guidance shows a strong signal for warmth
with well above normal conditions across all of the High Plains.
The net result for central and western Nebraska will be
generally dry conditions with temperatures well above normal
into next week. While we still have a lot of cold to get out of
the ground, by Wednesday 50th percentile temperatures will
conservatively be in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees for all
but northeastern Nebraska will be approaching 20 degrees above
normal for late January. Snowpack is not excessive but is most
robust east of Hwy 83 where 1" to 3" of liquid equivalent is on
the ground with the higher amounts mainly across Boyd, Holt,
Garfield, and Wheeler counties. Temperatures at night are
expected to dip below freezing each night so release of water
from the snowpack looks to be gradual. Will be keeping an eye on
how snowmelt behaves and combines with river ice for potential
flooding concerns in the days ahead.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
Somewhat challenging forecast revolving around fog development
and impacts at area terminals.
Various short-term guidance is still far from confident in
seeing dense fog work into both LBF and VTN. Notably, the HRRR
has backed off and keeps both terminals 3+ SM visibility all
night. Given poor performance of this solution out of the gate,
am hesitant to remove IFR/LIFR mention completely so will
whittle down temporal coverage for now and amend later as
necessary. Outside of fog, expecting quick return to VFR
conditions by the end of the period for both terminals, with
only light and variable winds expected.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday for
NEZ005>010-025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...NMJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
911 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
Updated to issue a Dense Fog Advisory along and west of the
Mississippi River, west of a cold front located just south of the
Interstate 40 corridor. We already have some dense fog in East
Arkansas and in the Missouri Bootheel. The HRRR as well as
probabilistic guidance is hitting the fog pretty hard later
tonight in north MS and west TN. Will continue to evaluate
conditions and expand the Advisory if needed.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
No significant changes needed to the forecast this evening. A cold
front has moved through Memphis and is currently oriented just
south of the I-40 corridor. We already have some fog in East
Arkansas and in the Missouri Bootheel. The HRRR as well as
probabilistic guidance is hitting the fog pretty hard later
tonight in north MS and west TN. Will continue to monitor obs and
decide if a Dense Fog Advisory is necessary over the next few
hours. Tomorrow(Friday) should be cloudy and dry with highs. Rain
returns Saturday with cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures trend warmer next week.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
Dry weather is expected tonight across the Mid-South as a cold
front moves out of the region. Rain returns as early as Friday
evening and continues for much of Saturday as the cold front
moves lifts north into central Mississippi. High pressure will
settle over Texas by Sunday bringing a period of dry and colder
weather to the region. Temperatures will moderate some for Tuesday
and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
A cold front is currently over portions of west Tennessee and
north Mississippi this afternoon. Cloudy skies continue to cover
much of the region with temperatures along and ahead of the front
in the 50s to lower 60s and in the low to mid 50s behind it. All
of the rain that was ahead of the cold front is now in middle
Tennessee and north Alabama.
The cold front was gradually move east and will be out of the
region overnight. Skies will remain cloudy tonight and some area
of fog are expected to develop. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed
overnight into Friday morning but not confident enough to issue
one now. Temperatures will be cooler tonight behind the front with
lows Friday morning in the mid 40s to lower 50s. A weak area of
high pressure will move into the region on Friday with dry weather
expected. Temperatures will remain above normal on Friday with
highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s.
By Friday night, low pressure will develop along the cold front in
southeast Texas and track northeast into central Mississippi by
Saturday morning. This will drag the front northward and start to
bring some showers into the Mid-South Friday night. The surface
low will continue to move northeast on Saturday moving across
central Alabama. Widespread showers are expected across the entire
region with some isolated thunderstorms possible over portions of
north Mississippi. Total rainfall from this system should remain
below 1.00" so flooding is not expected.
As the surface low moves into north Georgia, rain will be ending
across the region Saturday night. High pressure will start to
build into the southern Plains bringing a period of dry and colder
weather for Saturday night through Monday.
Winds will shift to the southwest by Tuesday bringing milder air
into the region and allowing temperatures to return back into
above normal readings for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
Conditions appear to be very conducive for fog and low stratus to
develop and deteriorate again across the area later this evening
into early Friday. Confidence is relatively high given the
antecedent conditions and numerical/probabilistic guidance in good
agreement. Visibilities may drop as low as 1/2 or 1/4 mile
overnight towards sunrise Friday. Some improvement in visibilities
and ceilings are expected Friday morning to IFR/MVFR conditions.
AMD NOT SKED continued at MKL due to visibility sensor issues
persisting and non-continuous overnight manual augmentation.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for MOZ113-115.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for MSZ001-007-010.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for TNZ001-002-019-048-
049-088.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CJC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
650 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Record warm min temp potential today (previous: 30, 2017)
-Unseasonably mild temps and periods of fog/low clouds could
persist into at least early Saturday as moist dewpoints remain
in the low levels.
-A shortwave/low pressure system moving through Lower Mi tonight and
Fri could bring some light mixed pcpn to mainly south central and
eastern sections of the UP with minimal impacts expected.
-Above normal temperatures and generally quiet weather are expected
to continue into early February.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 152 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2024
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the western U.S.
and a shortwave over the southern plains with a ridge on the east
coast. This shortwave heads northeast into the upper Great Lakes by
12z Fri. Most of its moisture misses the area and goes south and
east. With abundant low level moisture, drizzle and freezing drizzle
cannot be ruled out along with fog. Temperatures will not vary much
and have potential of breaking the warmest low temperature for this
date at the office.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2024
Models indicate the warm pattern will continue across Upper Michigan
into next week as high pressure and warm air advection build
strongly across the central U.S. and Canada this weekend into next
week. Before this happens, a Southern Plains system moving through
Lower Mi could bring some light mixed pcpn to the area tonight
into Fri night, mainly over central and eastern sections of the cwa.
A couple of southern stream shortwaves now over the Central Plains
as noted on water vapor imagery and the RAP analysis are fcst to
move through the Lower Great Lakes tonight into Fri night bringing
low chances (20-30 pct) of light mixed pcpn to mainly south central
and eastern sections of the UP. It still looks like fairly minimal
impacts with maybe a light glaze of ice early Fri and Fri night from
freezing drizzle over mainly south central and east half sections of
the UP.
Areas of fog, locally dense, could continue to plague the U.P. at
times tonight into early Saturday as dew points remain moist (in the
lower 30s) through much of the period. Would expect improvement
in visibility from fog during the daytime under weak diurnal
heating.
After the last of the mixed precipitation leaves the area Friday
night, expect a dry weekend as surface high pressure generally
dominates. That being said, with weak troughing moving overhead in
the mid to upper levels, mostly cloudy skies will remain over Upper
Michigan through early next week.
Medium range models indicate a couple of weak Clipper shortwaves
moving through the area early to middle of next week, with the first
likely arriving Mon night/Tue and the second Wed night/Thu but with
only weak CAA advertised with these Clipper systems only light
snow is expected with probably minimal, if any, impacts.
Some record warm low temperatures could certainly be in jeopardy of
falling at our NWS Marquette office over the next couple of days
with lows forecast to be in the upper 20s to near 30F. Otherwise,
expect above normal temperatures to continue into next week with
highs generally in the mid to upper 30s and lows into the 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2024
With an unseasonably warm and moist airmass in place along with a
softening/ripening snowpack, low clouds and mist/fog will continue
to be an issue thru this fcst period. While IWD/SAW will start at
IFR, expect both terminals to fall to LIFR by late evening with LIFR
then persisting thru Fri. Expect conditions at airfield landing mins
overnight into at least Fri morning with SAW potentially falling to
blo airfield landing mins. At CMX, conditions have fallen to blo
airfield landing mins. Development of a light nne wind/weak
downsloping to the terminal by late evening might be enough to
raise conditions to airfield landing mins. LIFR will continue at
CMX thru Fri morning with IFR in the aftn. Very light dz/fzdz
will be possible at times into Fri morning with sfc temps at 32
to 33F, particularly at SAW. However, the overall potential of
fzdz is too low to include mention in fcst. Winds at all
terminals will be light, under 5kt, thru the fcst period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2024
Light winds of 20 knots or less dominate into early next week as
synoptic systems miss us to our south and east over the next several
days and weak Clipper systems pass through to the north over the
weekend into early next week. North winds could increase to 25 to 30
knots over central and eastern portions of the lake Tuesday in the
wake of a cold frontal passage.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Voss