Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/24/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
919 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary moving through will continue bringing mixed
precipitation through overnight Tuesday. Precipitation will
transition to rain by Wednesday morning. Another system later
this week will bring additional chances for rain and snow.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
915 PM Update...
There was some thought of extending the advisories for the
counties along and west of I-81 a few hours longer based on some
of the potential of a wintry mix still in the forecast.
However, model soundings favor the transition to mainly rain
over wintry precipitation lingering longer than forecasted.
KELM and KAVP are both reporting rain as temperatures have
climbed into the mid 30s. Given this, the end timing of the
advisories seems reasonable. Also, the main batch of
precipitation is moving through and will be followed by a brief
dry period before scattered showers move in. There were some
minor changes to PoPs, mainly incorporating some of the HRRR and
NBM into the previous forecast. Otherwise, the forecast
continues to do well and needed no additional changes.
605 PM Update...
There was not much to change with this update. Precipitation
continues to move in with mainly snow being observed across CNY,
though a few spots are reporting unknown (likely a mix). The
forecast matches up well with what is seen on radar and ground
observations. The only change with this forecast was increasing
sky cover through the late evening hours. There may be brief
breaks but overall, it will be overcast.
Previous Discussion...
Current radar depicts mixed precipitation across Central NY and
NE PA. Mainly snow is falling for Central NY and northern
portions of NE PA, and mixed precipitation with freezing rain
for southern portions of NE PA. Heading into Tuesday evening,
warm air advection into our area will begin to transition snow
to mixed precipitation, including a mix with sleet and freezing
rain. The precipitation transition line will move west across
Central NY and NE PA overnight Tuesday, with potential to bring
up to one inch of snow, and a glaze to one tenth of an inch of
ice accumulation. By early morning Wednesday, precipitation will
have transitioned to mostly rain, with exception to the
Catskills and northern Oneida County, where they`re likely to
continue experiencing mixed precipitation with freezing rain
until mid-morning Wednesday.
Wednesday will consist of light to moderate rain through the
day, with temperatures increasing into the low- to mid-40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
235 PM Update...
The active pattern continues with moist southwest flow maintaining
light precipitation over the area through Thursday. A more organized
area of low pressure then lifts across Western New York and the St.
Lawrence valley on Thursday night with a steadier rainfall.
Temperatures during this time period will be atypically warm for
late January with little to no concern for snow or mixed
precipitation. Looking at daytime temperatures in the 40s to low
50s. Rainfall forecasts look to be between one half and an inch with
ensemble statistics showing only about a 20-30% probability of
picking up more than an inch across NEPA and the Western Catskills
through Thursday night. This rainfall will have a nominal effect on
area rivers and streams, even with the magnitude of melting snow
expected. As high pressure builds in with colder air working in on
Friday the temperatures generally remain above freezing and January
norms.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
235 PM Update...
Saturday and a good portion of Saturday night appear to be the
lull between systems as high pressure builds across the
Northeast. Models in reasonable agreement with low pressure
gathering over the Lower Mississippi valley and lifting
northeastward into the Mid- Atlantic states with potential
coastal redevelopment on Sunday. This pattern suggests
precipitation breaking out over NEPA and CNY overnight and
Sunday morning. Thermal profiles, surface temperatures and
thickness patterns indicate uncertainty with precipitation type,
but ensemble probability statistics lean more toward a
rain/snow mix versus any freezing types. ECMWF and GFS diverge
heading into Monday with Euro clearing out faster while GFS
lingers precipitation into Monday. NBM somewhat splits the
difference here with lowering PoPs, but not completely
eliminating them. Temperature profiles cool down some Monday
night and Tuesday, but do not appear to be cold enough to
trigger lake effect at this time. Lots of disparity in the
guidance for Tuesday but it appears the consensus is toward
drier weather.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mix of IFR and MVFR conditions across the region as a wintry
mix moves overhead.
Restrictions should remain at or just above IFR conditions for
the NY terminals into the early overnight hours. A transition to
rain is expected to spread from SW to NE tonight, lifting all
terminals to MVFR by daybreak. RME does have a chance for
freezing rain between 10-12z as the warm air rides over the
cooler valley and precip changes from snow to rain. How fast
the surface warms is still somewhat unclear but model soundings
do show a good chance for a period of freezing rain right before
daybreak.
A morning lull is expected across the NY terminals before the
next batch of rain moves in during the mid afternoon hours. It
is expected that conditions fall to IFR somewhat quickly thanks
to warmer, saturated air allowing ceilings to fall and some fog
to develop.
AVP is expected to remain MVFR through the overnight hours with
precip falling as all rain. IFR conditions should return during
the afternoon hours as a warmer airmass and the next batch of
rain moves in.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Thursday...Restrictions likely with
rain showers.
Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR; lingering rain showers and
restrictions possible Friday morning.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ038-
039-043-044-047.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for PAZ040-
048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ009-
037.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
NYZ015>017-022>025-055.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ018-
036-044-045-056.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ046-
057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...BTL/KL
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JTC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
606 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog is expected tonight into Wednesday morning over much of
western and central North Dakota. Fog may be dense at times,
especially south central into the James River Valley.
- Fog is possible again Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
- Other than the fog, dry weather is expected through this
weekend.
- We will see a gradual warming trend through the weekend, then
very mild to unseasonably warm temperatures are possible
early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
Not much change from the previous discussion. Low stratus has
almost cleared out of our western tier of counties, but is
pretty locked in place over the remainder of the forecast area.
Areas of fog continue, with visibilities generally above 2
miles as of 00 UTC. High-res guidance is still advertising a
similar picture as earlier today, with the highest potential for
dense fog tonight in the south central into the James River
Valley. Will continue monitoring to see how visibilities trend
through the next few hours.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
Fog highlights the forecast today.
Widespread stratus covers all but far western portions of North
Dakota. Areas of fog remain within the stratus shield with
stations like KDIK and KHEI indicating some light ice
accumulations.
For the rest of the afternoon we expect the area of fog to
become less dense. Most areas are currently at or above a mile.
The far west central into the southwest will see the stratus
dissipate this afternoon. A good portion of McKenzie county is
seeing some sunshine with Golden Valley, western Slope and
Bowman counties beginning to clear out.
For tonight, the HRRR/RAP continue to indicate areas south of
the lake and west of the Missouri clearing from west to east.
Here the models are similar in keeping the 925MB RH 90% or
higher west through a good portion of Morton, Sioux and Grant
counties. North of the Lake, the RAP is depicting low level
(925MB) RH remaining northwest into the north central while the
HRRR tries to scour things out more, but also indicates
humidities increasing late.
The potential for stratus/fog remains higher over central ND,
especially the south central into the JRV. NBM probabilities of
visibilities of a mile or less are highest (>25%) over the
south central into the James River Valley. The NBM probability
of ceilings less than 500 ft encompass a similar area. This
matches up well with the HREF 50th percentile for visibilities
of a mile or less. MOS based guidance is also quite bullish for
low ceilings and visibilities at KBIS and KJMS late tonight.
RAP and HRRR guidance indicate visibilities diminishing as
early as late this afternoon, but certainly by early evening,
and continue through Wednesday morning, although both show
improvement from west to east late tonight. Also as mentioned
earlier, the RAP shows a more extensive area of low stratus/fog
northwest into the north central Wednesday morning compared to
the HRRR. Latest couple of HRRR/RAP runs have pushed the
clearing in the southwest almost to the Missouri River and with
most visibilities improving to above 6SM from the Missouri River
east to the JRV, will inform the evening shift but will not
issue a Dense Fog Advisory at this time as there is still
uncertainty due to the strength of the winds, as well as when to
begin the advisory.
For temperatures on Wednesday we utilized a blend of the NBM
with the NBM 25th percentile. A straight NBM25 seemed to work
well today, but there should be more clearing in the west on
Wednesday, thus a bump up from straight NBM25 seems reasonable.
After Wednesday, we think there is still the potential for areas
of fog into Thursday and possibly into Friday. We do begin to
warm in the southwest Thursday and Friday and the mean
1000-500MB layer RH starts to dry out across the forecast area.
However, with the warmer air comes daytime melting. In addition
the surface gradient quite weak Thursday and into Friday.
Therefore, patchy fog looks to be possible through the work
week. Hopefully by Thursday and especially Friday it would be
more of a patchy, mainly early morning issue. Fog may also
impact our temperature forecast late in the work week but
hopefully with more of a patchy morning fog issue, temperatures
will not be impacted as much. Thus we did not make any changes
to temperatures beyond Wednesday.
Other than the Fog with some light ice accumulation on
surfaces, or possibly some isolated patches of freezing drizzle,
through Wednesday morning, dry conditions are expected to
continue through the work week and into the weekend.
As we head into early next week we begin to see a significant
warm-up as broad upper level ridging builds from the Northern
Rockies into the Northern Plains. As has been discussed, the
deterministic NBM temperatures remain within the lower quartile
of the ensemble spread. The ensemble spread however, also
increases so we`ll stick with our current guidance. With that
said, it looks like the southwest could see some unseasonably warm
temperatures early next week with NBM25th percentile
temperatures near record highs at Dickinson and 75th percentile
Max temperatures well above the record highs for next Tuesday
and Wednesday. The rest of the forecast area does not reach
temperatures the southwest does, but it will certainly be mild
to very mild. Current forecast highs at Bismarck, Minot and
Jamestown are 20 to 25 degrees warmer than our late January
normals.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
IFR to LIFR conditions continue across the forecast area,
possibly lasting through the TAF period at KMOT/KJMS. A broad
low stratus deck sits over most of western and central North
Dakota, with the exception of the far west including KXWA.
Reduced visibilities from patchy fog are ongoing at all
terminals but KXWA, and the expectation is that fog will become
more dense overnight, especially at KBIS/KJMS. The low stratus
will begin scouring out from west to east, but uncertainty in
how far east it will get during the day Wednesday. Current
thought is that KDIK will clear early morning, followed by KXWA
and eventually KBIS. South winds around 10 knots tonight will
shift to northwesterly by the end of the TAF period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Jones
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...Jones
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
837 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Updated Aviation discussion for fog thoughts tonight.
Tonight through Wednesday night...
Satellite imagery shows a very split trof moving thru the
intermountain west (ID to AZ), with SW flow bringing some mid and
high clouds to our region. There remains residual stratus east of
Baker and along the Little Missouri valley in southeast Carter
County, but it is eroding quickly now and will be gone by 21z.
Progression of upstream weak trof should bring a few light snow
showers to the Beartooth-Absarokas late this afternoon to early
Wednesday. Otherwise, the remainder of the area will be dry w/
weak downslope winds along the foothills. After today`s slight
boundary layer drying, the risk of fog over our east is much lower
tonight than earlier today. Recent HRRR runs show no fog
development. That said, snow cover remains over much of our north
and east and early afternoon temps remain only in the low-mid 20s
from Forsyth to Miles City. NBM probs of visibility less than a
mile are under 10%, which seems reasonable, while the 12Z HREF
shows >25% probs for 1/2 mile or less...probs that are too high
given what is happening this afternoon. Nonetheless, have added
patchy fog to northern Rosebud and Custer County and this is
something to watch.
We will be under brief shortwave ridging tomorrow (i.e. dry), then
by late tomorrow night the next approaching Pacific trof will
bring the next chance of light snow showers to our western
mountains. Look for low temps in the upper teens and 20s tonight,
highs Wednesday mainly 40s (except 30s along the Yellowstone east
of Hysham), then mid teens to upper 20s Wednesday night. The risk
of fog in our northeast may be a bit higher again tomorrow night
as weak surface high returns to northeast MT.
JKL
Thursday through Tuesday...
The ongoing warmup will continue through the extended forecast
period. Beginning Thursday, a large ridge will begin building into
the PNW bringing a trend towards quite anomalous heights and
temperatures. Aside from some zonal flow and passing wave
disturbances on late Thursday into early Friday, chances for
precip will become quiescent. Some light mountain snow showers in
the Absaroka/Beartooth mtns are possible Thursday-Friday.
Accumulations are not expected to be significant, with up to a 50%
chance of an inch of snowfall through Friday morning.
Temperatures in the 40s Thursday-Saturday, before pushing into the
upper 40s and low 50s by Sunday.
The main story becomes the ridging that will bring high temps in
excess of 10F above normal, Sunday through Tuesday. Model
ensembles like the GFS and ECMWF, show 850mb temperature anomalies
of 10-15C into the middle of next week. The ECMWF ensemble is
running much warmer than the GFS ensemble though, with the EC
presenting temperatures in the upper 50s and possibly even low
60s. For now, temperatures in the 50s are forecasted for Monday
and Tuesday which look to be the warmest days. There is a high
probability of high temps of 55F or greater for much of the
northwestern, central, and southern areas of the CWA on Monday and
Tuesday. For the western areas, a low chance of this and in the
northeastern areas a moderate to high chance.
Lastly, a period of increased winds appears to be setting up in
the Western foothills towards the end of the weekend/ start of the
new week. It too soon to determine the extent of this, however it
is something to keep track of as we get closer to weekend.
Matos
&&
.AVIATION...
Fog is expected along river valleys over SE Montana tonight into
Wednesday morning, especially along the Yellowstone river east of
Hysham. The latest HREF probabilities have decreased the
probability for visibility under a mile at KMLS and K1S3 to around
30 percent overnight (previously 50 percent). If fog does push up
from the river valley to those more elevated airports, expect
occasional visibility of around 1/2sm in freezing fog. For now
will downgrade the KMLS TAF to VCFG with no tempo given the lower
probabilities.
Otherwise VFR conditions with passing mid and high level ceilings
can be expected across the forecast area through Wednesday
afternoon. Chambers
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/046 028/046 027/047 027/047 032/052 033/055 035/057
00/B 00/B 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 028/046 028/043 025/042 024/045 029/049 032/051 033/053
00/U 01/E 10/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/U
HDN 023/046 020/046 024/049 020/049 025/054 026/056 026/058
00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 019/034 016/038 020/040 017/040 024/045 025/049 026/051
00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 024/047 020/046 025/047 022/049 027/054 028/056 030/059
00/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 021/040 017/041 020/040 017/043 024/046 025/049 027/051
00/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 024/047 021/046 023/046 019/049 026/054 027/056 029/061
00/B 00/B 10/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
915 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
So far, things have been going as expected with the forecast. An
area of showers, and some thunder, has moved through Laredo, and
is moving up along the stationary front that stretches from north
of Laredo, to near Alice and then up the Coastal Bend along the
coast. The latest runs of the HRRR and the HiRes-FV3 seem to be
handling the current convection very well, which seems to take
this rain and push it north into the Hill Country, just brushing
the northern part of the Brush Country, and then there looks to be
a lull, only for the main development begin along the Coastal
Bend, either riding along the coast, or just offshore. So far,
confidence is growing that this may be what happens, but am not
ready to rewrite the grids 6-12 hours out. The next couple of
hours will tell what happens.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
Key Messages:
- Flood Watch in Effect from 9 PM Tonight through Wednesday
morning for the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend, and Victoria
Crossroads
- Marginal risk of severe storms tonight through Wednesday with
large hail and isolated tornadoes the primary threats
- Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect through Wednesday morning
for the nearshore waters
A weak surface low over SE Texas and sufficient lift support from
850-500mb positive vorticity will lead to convection this evening
through Wednesday. In addition, most of South to Southeast Texas
will be located under the right entrance divergence region of the
upper jet. Latest CAM guidance indicates convection developing
over eastern Mexico then moving east-northeast into South Texas
through the night. All of South Texas is included in a marginal
risk of severe storms from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) with
isolated tornadoes and large hail the primary threats. Given the
elevated convection nature of the storms, strong shear aloft, and
MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, supercells are most favorable to develop
between 9 PM and 1 AM tonight. Storms then collide and become
more band-like through the overnight period.
Training of showers and storms moving northeast along the Coastal
Plains along with over 50 percent soil moisture has led to a
Flood Watch from 9 PM tonight through Wednesday morning. Rain
chances continue through Wednesday night as the mid-level trough
shifts eastward across the Great Plains. Current total QPF through
Wednesday night is up to 2" but training will likely lead to
locally higher amounts.
Patchy to areas of fog will continue through much of the short
term due to saturated soils, low-level saturation, and advection
sea fog as much warmer dewpoints overrun cooler water
temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
Key Message:
- Above normal temperatures through the end of the week with near
normal temperatures over the weekend in the wake of a cool
front.
Drier and mild conditions can be expected on Thursday in the wake of
an exiting short wave. Expect an increase in clouds and a chance of
showers along the coast Friday as moisture advection increases ahead
of the next S/W and associated Pacific front moving into west Texas.
This front will move through South Texas Friday Night with cool and
dry advection in its wake. This will result in a pleasant weekend
with mostly clear skies, dry north winds, and highs in the 60s to
near 70 degrees. A weak ridge will remain over the region into early
next week with a gradual warming trend. Fog potential looks low at
this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
As the concern of the last two nights, we continue with warm
southeast flow off the Gulf with moisture being trapped under an
inversion through the night and going into Wednesday. An upper
air trough will move through the region over the next 24 hours,
along a stalled front, kicking up thunderstorms. Once the wave
moves through the winds back to the NE. This leads to the IFR/MVFR
CIGs and MVFR/IFR VSBYs (especially along the coastal TAF sites).
Thunderstorms are expected to break out near the Mexico Border,
probably near LRD and move NE toward the rest of the TAF sites.
this once through there is still a threat for more thunderstorms
going into Wednesday. Low confidence in the actual timing, until
the storms break out, then maybe a better timing for thunderstorm
chances can be gleaned.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the nearshore
waters for visibility 1 nm or less through Wednesday morning as
weak onshore flow persists with warmer dewpoints overrunning
colder water temperatures. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected this evening through Wednesday afternoon with a marginal
risk of strong to severe storms. Large hail and isolated tornadoes
are the primary threats. Weak to moderate northeast winds can be
expected Thursday as weak high pressure settles into South Texas.
Weak to moderate onshore winds develop on Friday ahead of another
cool front that will move off the coast Friday Night. Moderate
offshore winds can be expected in the wake of this front. Light
north winds and dry conditons will persist through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 64 74 57 72 / 80 60 40 10
Victoria 61 70 54 70 / 90 90 40 10
Laredo 63 71 57 74 / 80 30 30 0
Alice 62 75 54 72 / 90 50 40 10
Rockport 57 67 54 66 / 90 80 50 20
Cotulla 60 68 53 74 / 70 80 20 0
Kingsville 64 74 57 72 / 80 50 40 10
Navy Corpus 61 69 57 66 / 90 80 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ232>234-242>247-
342>347-442-443-447.
High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ345-442-
443-447.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for GMZ250-255.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EMF
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...JSL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
437 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 156 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2024
An upper trough will bring some more rain to the lowlands and snow
in the mountains above 7500 feet where a few inches are possible.
Another system moves in for late Thursday into Friday but precip
will be confined to the mountains. Drier air with warmer
temperatures return for the weekend into early next week as an
upper ridge builds into the Borderland.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2024
Upper low/trough currently over AZ and will be shifting east over
the next day. Not overly dynamic system, but moisture is above
normal and several pieces of energy moving around the base of the
trough. Next band of precip is moving through Luna and into Dona
Ana county, not as impressive as CAMS models indicated, especially
the HRRR which was most aggressive. Satellite shows another area
over NW Mexico which is expected to be less organized than current
band. Expect precip to remain rain below 7000-7500ft with most
areas receiving less than a quarter inch through Thu. Several
models indicating band pivoting over northern CWA with possibility
of several inches of snow in the mountains. Generally expect 2-5
inches with locally higher amounts possible if this band sets up
in one area for several hours. Will leave WSW as is.
For Wed, upper low will push east of the area with precip coming
to an end. Only expect a some isolated lowlands showers with some
scattered in the highest mountain areas. There will be some breaks
in the clouds for the lowlands which when combined with the west-
northwest winds of 10-20 mph should allow high temperatures to
reach the mid to upper 50s. The area will be between systems Wed
night and Thu with winds picking back up Thu afternoon to 10-20
mph. Have a small concern for patchy fog Thu morning if skies
clear some, but think winds will remain up enough to prevent it.
A quick moving upper trough will cross Thu night into Fri. This
system will be further north than the current one, so moisture
will be more limited with breezy winds on the back side. Snow
amounts will remain below an inch or two above 7000 feet, mainly
in the Sacs.
Drier air and warmer temperatures return for the weekend into
early next week as weak upper ridge builds in with blocking
pattern over the far west. High temperatures for the lowlands look
to be in the 60s with a few areas near 70.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 434 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2024
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue much of
the evening and overnight hours. Generally VFR conditions expected
with ceilings averaging around 050, but CIG and VIS reductions
are possible within any SHRA leading to MVFR or even briefly IFR
conditions. Otherwise winds will be variable though generally from
the south or southwest with sustained speeds between 5 and 10
knots and a few gusts up to 20 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2024
Fire weather concerns minimal since most areas have received some
rainfall over the last couple of days. Winds will be occasionally
breezy for the next few days but RH`s remain well above 30%. A
little more mountain precip is possible Thu night/Fri morning but
with little impact. Drier air moves in for the weekend with
temperatures warming back up into the 60s for the lowlands. Vent
rates generally poor to good.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 42 58 39 60 / 40 40 0 0
Sierra Blanca 36 52 34 57 / 50 40 0 0
Las Cruces 37 55 34 58 / 50 40 0 0
Alamogordo 36 52 30 55 / 70 30 0 0
Cloudcroft 26 31 23 36 / 80 60 0 0
Truth or Consequences 38 54 34 56 / 50 20 0 0
Silver City 35 46 32 50 / 60 30 0 0
Deming 36 55 31 59 / 40 30 0 0
Lordsburg 37 52 34 56 / 60 50 0 10
West El Paso Metro 40 56 38 60 / 40 40 0 0
Dell City 35 57 30 61 / 50 10 0 0
Fort Hancock 37 58 34 63 / 40 30 0 0
Loma Linda 37 49 34 53 / 60 40 0 0
Fabens 40 58 37 61 / 40 40 0 0
Santa Teresa 37 54 34 58 / 40 30 0 0
White Sands HQ 42 55 39 60 / 60 40 0 0
Jornada Range 38 55 31 58 / 60 30 0 0
Hatch 35 59 31 62 / 50 40 0 0
Columbus 38 56 37 59 / 50 30 0 0
Orogrande 38 52 32 57 / 60 30 0 0
Mayhill 29 47 28 52 / 60 40 0 0
Mescalero 29 42 25 46 / 80 60 0 0
Timberon 26 41 24 46 / 70 50 0 0
Winston 29 49 25 52 / 50 20 0 0
Hillsboro 32 54 30 57 / 40 30 0 0
Spaceport 37 54 30 57 / 60 30 0 0
Lake Roberts 31 46 28 50 / 60 40 0 10
Hurley 33 49 30 54 / 50 20 0 0
Cliff 37 53 33 56 / 50 30 0 10
Mule Creek 36 48 33 52 / 50 30 0 10
Faywood 35 51 31 55 / 40 30 0 0
Animas 36 54 33 57 / 50 40 0 0
Hachita 36 54 34 57 / 50 30 0 0
Antelope Wells 36 54 32 60 / 50 40 0 0
Cloverdale 37 48 34 53 / 70 50 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for NMZ426.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST Wednesday for NMZ414-415.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
724 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Evening/
Light precipitation will continue to shift east of North and
CentraL Texas as a shortwave trough lifts northeast of the
forecast area. An upper trough remains situated to the west of the
region, however, which will provide additional rain chances over
the next 24 to 36 hours. Showers and thunderstorms are already
back-building in the vicinity of a surface front, which is
expected to meander near a line from the Arklatex to the Hill
Country. This convection has thus far remained just south of the
CWA, but is slowly shifting north and may affect some of our
Central Texas counties over the next several hours as a second
disturbance lifts northeast across the region. The Flood Watch has
hence been extended through 6 AM Wednesday for areas from
Palestine to Hearne. The main upper trough will finally makes its
approach from the west on Wednesday, bringing one more
opportunity for showers and isolated thunderstorms. The highest
POPs on Wednesday will again be across Central Texas nearest the
stationary front, though chance to slight chance POPs will extend
north to the Red River where there will be enough lift to produce
light rain.
Another concern will be fog formation and the resulting reduction
in visibility overnight near and north of the surface front,
similar to the past few nights. A Dense Fog Advisory has
therefore been issued for all of the forecast area now through 10
AM Wednesday. Otherwise, temperatures will finally return to more
seasonable values on Wednesday with highs climbing into the 50s.
30
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 238 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024/
/Wednesday Night through Tuesday/
The upper level trough axis will be moving through the region
Wednesday evening. While most of the global ensemble guidance is
clearing the rain chances to the east of us by sunset, the latest
HRRR and NamNest indicate some lingering elevated showers tracking
through the region so will carry some slight chance to low chance
PoPs during the evening hours, finally ending from west to east
early Thursday. Another round of fog is likely Wednesday night
given our saturated conditions and cold ground temperatures, but
one negating element may be light northerly winds and weak dry
advection at the surface in the wake of the trough passage. In any
case, the morning fog and/or low clouds will be slow to
burn/clear Thursday, but by afternoon some sunshine should return
to the region with high temps in the low 60s.
The break from the soupy, gloomy weather will be short-lived as
yet another upper trough deepens and tracks through our region
during the day Friday. This system will be a bit more dynamic,
with colder temperatures aloft and stronger lift, so there will be
an isolated to scattered thunderstorm threat. While shear
profiles look well organized for severe weather, the limiting
factor is instability with the ensemble guidance depicting only a
10% chance of surface CAPE exceeding 500 J/kg in the southeastern
part of the CWA. Nonetheless we can`t rule out a couple strong
storms, and we will continue to monitor the instability parameters
as we get closer in time. Rainfall amounts with this round will
not be as impressive as prior episodes. Most likely amounts are near
a tenth of an inch in Central Texas ramping up to a half inch along
the Red River - meanwhile there is just a 10% chance of totals
over an inch across North Texas.
Behind the trough a cold front will push through the region with
drier and slightly cooler temperatures setting us up for a nice
weekend and early next week with temps a little above normal.
Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and
40s. Plenty of sunshine and light winds are also expected.
TR.92
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
IFR to LIFR conditions are already in place and will continue
overnight. Visibilities will improve after 16Z Wednesday, with
only minor improvements in ceilings expected. Convection will
remain mainly south of all TAF sites tonight, but may get close to
KACT during the overnight hours. Additional precipitation will
arrive Wednesday afternoon as an upper level trough approaches,
but thunderstorm chances are too low to include in the TAFs at
this time. Otherwise, light north winds will persist.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 44 55 43 60 46 / 10 40 30 0 5
Waco 49 55 46 63 48 / 50 70 40 0 5
Paris 45 57 44 59 43 / 40 30 40 5 0
Denton 40 55 39 60 43 / 10 40 30 0 0
McKinney 43 55 42 59 44 / 20 40 30 0 0
Dallas 45 55 43 62 46 / 10 40 30 0 5
Terrell 46 55 44 60 45 / 20 50 40 0 0
Corsicana 50 57 47 62 48 / 40 70 40 0 0
Temple 48 56 44 64 46 / 50 70 40 0 5
Mineral Wells 42 54 40 62 46 / 5 40 20 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Wednesday for TXZ147-148-160>162-174-
175.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1010 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog looking likely for tonight
- Several rounds of rain into Thu night
- Melting snow, rising rivers, and minor flooding possible later
this week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2024
No changes planned to the going forecast. We will leave the
Dense Fog Advisory unchanged for now. The dense fog at this
time is confined to the I-96 corridor and points to the south
including I-94. Most observations sites within this zone have
tanked to a quarter mile or are on a downward trend. This zone
has dew points above freezing. Above freezing dew point air over
a melting snowpack almost always results in dense fog. The way
to insure you get dense fog in these situations is to provide a
wind advecting in the higher dew point air. We do not have much
in the way of wind tonight, but the abundant low level moisture
and slightly above freezing dew point air should allow us to see
widespread dense fog.
The item that will need to be monitored tonight will be an
expansion of the dense fog to the north with time. The HRRR is
showing the 32F isodrosotherm remaining near the I-96 corridor
suggesting a northward expansion of the fog and the need for an
advisory across Central Lower MI is not needed. Our consensus of
short term model visibility guidance however does shows the fog
moving north. Given mixed signals on Central Lower MI fog we
will stay the course on the advisory as its configured now.
The best surge in precipitation with our Wednesday rain will
come just after 12z. We have chance pops in the south late
tonight for the initial rain pushing in.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2024
- Dense fog looking likely for tonight
As moisture from the Gulf of Mexico lifts into the CWA through
tonight, it will continue to interact with the snowpack leading
to fog. That fog is forecast by the HRRR to become dense
overnight. This is a favorable pattern for the fog to become
dense. We will therefore issue a dense fog advisory for much of
the region for tonight into Wednesday morning.
- Several rounds of rain into Thu night
One surface wave tracks into the CWA from the middle MS Valley
on Wednesday. The atmosphere is already very moist with PWAT
values around 0.8 inches. The PWAT continues to climb up to
around an inch for Wednesday. As the wave moves in, its lift
will deepen the moisture through the DGZ, generating rain. This
feature pulls into New England Wednesday night. Nearly all
ensemble members have measurable qpf for the area so we will
feature high POPs. Ensemble QPF has trended up with this
system.
Another, stronger wave moves in for Thursday. Aloft, a coupled
upper jet is seen and divergence is progged to be strong at that
level. This will support deep upward lift. Theta E convergence
at 850 mb is also capturing the focused nature of this system
with much with values peaking around 00z Friday. Soundings
support a rain event. Thus, a period of heavy rain is looking
more likely. Ensemble qpf guidance from the all the models has
been trending up with this system and the next key message will
discuss the potential impacts of the precipitation.
- Melting snow, rising rivers, and minor flooding possible later
this week
A warmup and several days in a row of rain will bring an
early glimpse of spring to Lower Michigan starting today. There`s
currently between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of water contained within the
snowpack west of a line from Kalamazoo to Mount Pleasant. Lesser
amounts around 1.0 inch or less are more common east of this line
(including Lansing and Jackson areas). While some of this snow will
be melting over the next day or two, mostly it will be acting
primarily to absorb the falling rain today and also with the
2nd round of rain expected on Wednesday. By Thursday, the snow
won`t be able to absorb much more water, and at this point we`ll
see more significant amounts of water flowing toward our river
systems. This alone would bring multi-foot rises to most of our
rivers, and bring a few of the tributaries on the Grand River
(Looking Glass, Maple, and Sycamore Creek) close to bankfull.
Unfortunately, another trend has developed in the models today, and
that is for a 3rd round of rain across much of our area on Thursday,
and it`s looking like this could drop an additional one-half inch or
more of rain across a good chunk of Lower Michigan. This will
increase river rises even more, and may be enough to push the Grand
River to bankfull at some spots and push those aforementioned
tributaries toward minor flood stage, including the Red Cedar around
East Lansing. Meanwhile, thankfully, the Kalamazoo and Muskegon
Rivers both look like they`ll be able to hand this week`s taste-of-
spring without much issue, though water levels will still be on the
rise. If you live along any of our beautiful rivers or creeks here
in West Michigan, now`s a good time to prepare for melting snow,
rising water levels, and the possibility of minor flooding in some
of the most flood-prone locations.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 724 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2024
Poor aviation conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Ceilings are largely forecast to be below 400 feet and
visibilities should be at 1/4SM to 1/2SM much of tonight and
Wednesday morning. The poor conditions are due to a warm front
in the area, a melting snowpack, dew points rising to near and
slightly above 32F and light winds. All of these factors lead to
an abundance of low level moisture. There may be a slight
improvement Wednesday afternoon as a widespread rain moves over
the TAF sites. The rain may nudge up visibilities just a touch,
but we are still expecting at best 1/2SM to maybe 1 1/2SM to
2SM. Bottom line, conditions will be deteriorating further this
evening with VLIFR likely at all TAF sites for the morning push.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2024
Overall the pressure gradient remains relatively weak over the
next couple of days. As a result we are not planning any
marine headlines through Wednesday. As a relatively warm and
moist airmass advects over the colder waters of Lake MI, there
will be some fog developing which may become dense starting
tonight.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ050-
056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Duke
DISCUSSION...MJS/AMD
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...MJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
555 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog is expected to become dense across the western Sandhills,
southwest, and central Sandhills tonight through Wednesday
morning.
- The combination of fog and subfreezing temperatures may
result in slick spots, especially on elevated and untreated
surfaces.
- Seasonable conditions Wednesday, then milder air arrives
Friday through next Tuesday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
Widespread stratus exists east of a line from Ogallala through
Valentine. Visibility was 5sm or higher, except at Grant and
Imperial at 3/4sm and 1sm respectively. Temperatures hindered by
the stratus in the upper 20s to around. To the west temperatures
were in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 348 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
A southerly flow in the lower levels tonight will maintain
moisture advection. The HRRR, RAP and HREF ensemble probabilities
again support fog development. Dense fog/freezing fog is
expected, mainly west of a Valentine through Taylor line, where
a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect tonight through noon CST
Wednesday. Lows tonight from the low 20s northwest to the mid
and upper 20s southeast.
Wednesday, the fog is expected to lift by noon CST. Stratus
during the afternoon will scattered out west of a Valentine
through Ogallala line, helping temperatures reach the lower
40s. To the east, high will will remain cooler in the mid to
upper 30s.
An upper trough currently across the Great Basin into the Four
Corners Region will slowly progress eastward through Wednesday
night. Two disturbances will track northeast ahead of the trough
axis. Any precipitation will remain well southeast of the area,
mainly across Kansas into sern NE, MO and IA.
Some fog potential exists across the southeastern zones
Wednesday night, where at least patchy fog should develop.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
Thursday, clearing skies behind the upper trough across western
Nebraska, with cloudy skies persisting across the east. Highs
will contrast from the mid 40s west to only the lower 30s
northeast.
Friday and Saturday, an upper trough upstream is expected to
move eastward and deepen across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. While dry conditions are expected, cloudiness should
persist Friday followed by mainly sunny skies Saturday. Highs by
Saturday to warm to the mid and upper 40s west to the mid 30s
northeast.
Sunday through Tuesday, dry conditions as upper ridging builds
across the Rockies into the Central U.S. The colder airmass
will remain well to our east across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Highs across western Nebraska by Monday and Tuesday are
expected to reach the the mid to upper 50s, to the lower 40s
northeast. The upcoming days will help to melt the existing
snowpack.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
Stratus persists over north central Nebraska, with patchy fog
trapped under the stratus. Stratus looks to persist through most of
the TAF period, especially at KLBF. KVTN is right on the edge of the
stratus deck, and is expected to be impacted by lower ceilings again
this evening. Conditions appear primed for fog development
overnight, with visibility impacts expected at both terminals.
Probabilistic guidance suggests a 70% chance for visibility to
drop below 1/4 SM during the TAF period, though uncertainty
remains in timing of these visibilities. Will need to closely
monitor the onset of the lowest visibilities, and amendments may
be needed as conditions change. Otherwise, winds remain light
out of the south, before slowly switching to out of the west
tomorrow.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Wednesday for
NEZ004-005-022>026-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Richie
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
701 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple disturbances this week could lead to minor
accumulations of mixed precipitation, though substantial ice
accumulation is unlikely. (below 15%)
- Gradual warming trend this week leads to above normal temperatures
and chances for record warm lows late in the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 203 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2024
RAP analysis and water vapor satellite imagery show a shortwave and
associated sfc low moving through northern IL with DPVA and WAA
ahead of the shortwave feature spreading rain into Lower MI this
afternoon. It looks like the track of this shortwave will keep the
best forcing and moisture associated with this system se of Upper Mi
and pcpn should stay over Lower Mi through this evening. Models are
also in agreement keeping conditions dry across the U.P. as weak mid-
level ridging builds over the area into tonight. Model soundings
indicate subsidence and mid-level drying associated with the weak
mid-level ridging tonight will work to keep low-level moisture
trapped so expect lower cloud deck to persist over the area through
tonight under light winds. However, given the expected cloud cover
and lack of low-level moisture advection into the area, not
expecting as much in the way of fog tonight. If it happens, it would
be patchy at best. Under clouds, expect min temps to range through
the 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 433 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2024
A warming pattern continues this week as a trough centered over the
southwestern U.S. today gradually shifts east over the Plains by
Thursday with ridging over the east coast. This sets up the Great
Lakes for WAA and positive height anomalies yielding the well above
normal temps, especially min temps. Multiple shortwaves look to ride
east to southeast from this trough into the region this week,
providing us with multiple chances for light precip. The next
pattern change looks to arrive Saturday night into Sunday when
amplifying ridging over the west coast pushes this trough eastward
over the southeastern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic. This should bring temps
closer to normal with cooler northwest flow over the Great Lakes.
However, as indicated by the 3-9 day cluster mean 500mb height
anomalies, positive height anomalies continue into February with the
maximum now being centered over Manitoba/Ontario. Thus a return to
normal or below normal temps is not likely (only ~10% chance) over
the next 2 weeks, captured well by both the 6-10 and 8-14 day CPC
outlooks. This leaves potential for breaking some record warm low
temps this week and possibly some high temps next week.
Wednesday and Thursday bring a pair of shortwaves riding northeast
along the southwest flow into the Great Lakes. The first wave moves
northeast over the U.P. during the day Wednesday. The weak PVA
provided alongside the WAA from southwest flow may yield enough lift
for some isolated drizzle/freezing drizzle starting late morning in
the south and in the afternoon elsewhere. This low potential (~15%
chance) continues into the overnight hours behind the shortwave as
the moist layer lingers in the lower levels. While no accumulations
are expected as the better forcing stays south of our CWA, some
areas could get a light glaze at most out of this. The second wave
looks more impressive, starting its northeast track from Oklahoma
Wednesday night and continuing into the Great Lakes Thursday night.
This will bring a wintry mix of drizzle, freezing drizzle, and light
snow to the area. The best forcing again looks to mainly stick south
of our CWA, so only a few hundreths of QPF is expected across the
U.P. With the best lift focused between Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night and temps hanging around freezing, some slick
conditions may result from this disturbance.
Another shortwave Friday may try to continue precip through the day
over the east half of the U.P. That being said, drier air advecting
in from the west as noted in the PWATs dropping from ~0.6" to ~0.3"
will limit precip. A relatively quiet weekend then sets up then as
the pattern changes to northwest flow with ridging over the western
U.S. and troughing over the east. The next chances for precip in
this new weather pattern look to arrive early next week with a
shortwave moving southeast from Manitoba into the Great Lakes. The
1/23 12z ECMWF went dry compared to the 0z run, but the GFS
continues to put in slight chances so added some slight chance PoPs
for now.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2024
With a warm pattern for this time of year setting in, low clouds
will become a persistent issue at all terminals. Since winds at IWD
will maintain a downslope component thru this fcst period, expect
MVFR cigs to prevail. At CMX, light upslope easterly winds have
recently resulted in LIFR cigs and BR developing. As winds veer to
the SSE this evening, expect improvement to MVFR by late evening.
MVFR will then prevail at CMX for the remainder of this fcst period
At SAW, expect light upslope sse winds to result in steady lowering
of cigs from MVFR initially to IFR late this evening. While IFR
should then prevail thru Wed, further reduction to LIFR is possible
overnight into Wed morning. While much of the guidance is still
pretty bullish on fog developing tonight at SAW with some
guidance showing vis dropping to or blo airfield landing mins,
don`t see that occurring unless clouds clear out for a time or
appreciably higher dew points advect into the area. Neither is
expected. So, fcst only includes MVFR vis overnight/Wed morning
at SAW.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 433 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2024
With sfc ridging extending over the lake through Wednesday and
synoptic systems continuing to miss our region to the southeast, a
quiet stretch is expected for the lake. Light winds will stay below
20 knots through the rest of this work week, with winds dropping
below 10 knots across much of the lake Wednesday night. Winds around
or greater than 20 knots look to return late this weekend into next
week.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Jablonski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
753 PM PST Tue Jan 23 2024
.EVENING UPDATE...Dense fog continues across the region under a
transient ridge. Don`t see any reason why this would end until the
next system arrives tomorrow, so have extended the dense fog
advisory through 10 AM and also included the Lower Columbia Basin
of Oregon as locations such as Boardman and Hermiston have begun
to drop as well. Monitoring Walla Walla and Pendleton as the next
locations that could be impacted, and the foothills of the Blues
in both Oregon and Washington may need to be added tonight.
Otherwise, minor edits to the forecast package from this
afternoon. Goatley/87
.AVIATION...06Z TAFs...Dense fog continues for DLS/PSC/YKM,
expected through the night into tomorrow morning. Fog is beginning
to spread towards the Blue Mountain Foothills, but currently not
at ALW/PDT. Not ruling out the chance though. Otherwise, look for
rain, possibly mixed with some light snow early on for DLS/YKM,
between 12-18Z. CIGs should drop down below 3k feet with MVFR to
LIFR conditions possible for sites, with winds less than 10 knots.
Goatley/87
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM PST Tue Jan 23 2024/
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...A dense fog
advisory is out for the following areas:
Yakima/Kittitas Valleys, Columbia River Gorge and Basin through
this evening.
The short term will be characterized by multiple happenings over
a brief period of time. A shortwave has rippled across the upper
level system bringing a band of precipitation across the forecast
area today. Radar shows some areas where showers are still
occurring near The Dalles, Warm Springs and along some of the
higher terrains with up to 0.03 inches of rain has fallen in the
last hour. Current satellite shows that the big yellow orb in the
sky may be visible to many folks across the forecast area with the
exception of those who are stuck under the fog layer. As for the
coming days, brief periods of moderate precipitation are expected
across much of the region, with mountain snow, dense fog and
isolated areas of freezing rain.
Today models are in firm agreement that the upper level shortwave
that rippled its way across the region brining with it isolated
rain showers. Current radar shows the majority of the rain
showers have moves through and are mainly over the higher peaks of
the Blue Mountains and a bit in the vicinity of La Grande with
0.01-0.05 inches of rain fallen. Models show another brief
shortwave moves across the region bringing yet again another round
of precipitation starting along the Cascades before becoming
widespread across the region by Wednesday afternoon. Snow levels
will be above 3500 ft tonight before increasing to above 5000 ft
in the southern portion of the region and dropping slightly to
3000 ft along the WA Cascades and immediate east slopes. With
this, 70-90% of the HRRR ensembles show the Cascades, eastern
mountains and the Blues could see up to 2 to 4 inches of snow. As
the system moves across the region, 80-90% of the HRRR ensembles
show the region could see between 0.1-0.25 inches of rain and
during the early morning hours Wednesday morning, there could be a
few isolated areas that could see a brief glaze of freezing rain
along the lower Columbia Basin and east slopes with 20-30%
probabilities of 0.02 inches of accoladed ice. Wednesday night
the models are in firm agreement that the leading edge of an upper
level ridge will begin to move into the region briefly bringing
mostly dry conditions across the lower elevations through Thursday
with 60-80% probabilities of an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow
along the peaks of the Cascades and 1-2 inches in the Blues.
Temperatures for the week will moderate near to slightly above
normal through the short term period. A slight warming trend is on
its way. over 70% of the raw ensembles show the region to be in
the upper 30s to low 40s and central OR will see mid to upper 40s.
Bennese/90
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Ensemble guidance is in broad
agreement on a warm pattern dominating the region through the
period, with SW flow aloft pushing temps toward slightly above
average values by early next week and snow levels above the 6000-
7000 ft range. Generally these warm mid-winter patterns can spark
hydro concerns with rain falling on top of snow, but ensemble QPFs
are currently not suggesting much in the way of QPF through the
week, with more of a persistent threat rather than a single, heavy
one. Much of this moisture also looks to fall in the mountains,
based on GFS and ECMWF IVT, which both favor wetter scenarios across
the west side of the Cascades rather than our neck of the woods
through much of the period.
Best chance for lower-elevation rain looks to be Saturday, when
inland IVT is most favorable based on guidance. The synoptic pattern
switches from that of brief ridging on Friday to the more persistent
SW flow pattern expected for the period on Saturday. After Saturday,
however, PoPs begin to drop off, as the pattern downstream of the SW
flow amplifies, allowing for the SW flow to become more meridional
in nature, thus favoring higher precip forecasts for the west side
of the Cascades. NBM still suggests broad 20-40% PoPs for our
forecast area, save for the central Washington Cascades (50-75%)
which may see more favorable upslope based on the latter half of the
period`s synoptic pattern. With how elevated snow levels are
expected to be for the weekend onward, however, no real snow threat
is anticipated. Highs could climb as high as the mid 50s by early
next week in central Oregon and the lower Basin as a result of this
prolonged warm air advection via SW flow (30-40% confidence).
Ensembles suggest the pattern may shift cooler just beyond the long
term period, but forecast confidence is shaky for anything beyond
Day 7. Evans/74
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 29 38 31 42 / 0 80 50 30
ALW 31 40 34 43 / 0 90 70 40
PSC 32 37 32 41 / 0 70 20 20
YKM 30 38 30 39 / 10 100 20 30
HRI 30 37 31 41 / 0 70 30 20
ELN 32 37 29 38 / 0 100 30 30
RDM 29 46 30 45 / 30 100 30 10
LGD 32 40 30 42 / 0 90 80 40
GCD 28 42 29 43 / 0 90 60 20
DLS 30 39 35 42 / 40 100 60 60
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ041-044.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for WAZ024-026>028-
521.
&&
$$
EVENING UPDATE...87
SHORT TERM...90
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...87