Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/21/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
436 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2024
An active weather pattern returns to begin the week. Two storm
systems swing through the region, the first on Sunday and the
second on Tuesday. Each disturbance will bring lowland rain and
mountain snow showers. Light to moderate snow totals are possible
in the higher terrain above 7000 feet from both systems. Quieter
conditions return later in the week as temperatures stay near or
just below average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2024
Mid-high clouds continue to filter in from the west ahead of the
first of two systems impacting our region. This early-week
disturbance is a Pacific trough that will progress into the Four
Corners region Sunday night. A healthy tap of moisture will
accompany this storm, allowing cloud cover to lower and thicken
during the day tomorrow. Showers begin out west Sunday morning,
expanding eastward by the evening. The best chance at widespread
shower activity will be west of the Rio Grande with storm total QPF
around 0.25" and closer to 0.1" further east in the lowlands.
Snowfall is a threat as well, but only for elevations above 7000ft
due to southwesterly flow ahead of the trough. CAMs are beginning
to capture this first event as the 18z HRRR and NAMNest both show
at least a foot of snow in the Sacs. Upslope flow of course will
be a big influence in snow rates, but temperatures should be
relatively warm during the duration. Snow ratios of 8-10:1 are
expected, so even if the Sacs get around 0.5" of liquid, up to 6"
can be expected. The forecast is rather uncertain though as more
CAMs get a hold of the system. The upper range of possibilities is
high for being only 36-ish hours out from the event. I`m holding
off on any winter products due to the high amount of uncertainty.
Hopefully the 0z runs hone in on a solution for the Sacs. The
snow forecast for the Gila/Black Range is more certain with 1-3"
expected by Monday afternoon.
System number 2 moves in Monday night, accompanied by a strong jet
digging it southeasterly into our area. This system will be deeper
and more moist than Sunday`s. The slower-moving disturbance looks
capable of producing higher precip totals. Models and their
ensembles are pretty certain that the region will receive precip,
but PoPs were trimmed down from 95% since we are still three days
out. PoPs are now at 70-80% for Tuesday. Most of the precip should
fall on Tuesday, but some of it lingers for Wednesday as the
trough lifts to the east. QPF of generally 0.5" is expected with
higher totals near the AZ border and lower to the east. Moderate
snowfall is possible in the mountains above 7000ft again because
of a similar trajectory of the trough. Model ensembles aren`t too
excited about impactful snow in the Gila or Sacs with most
spitting out a couple inches. I figure with all the expected
liquid, there should be some higher snow totals than what the
current models indicate. Conditions improve on Wednesday as drier
air filters in with the trough`s passage.
Northwest flow returns for the second half of the week, keeping us
on the cooler side. The next system to monitor will be an upper
trough diving southeast across the Central Rockies on Friday. The
GFS keeps it to the northeast with only breezy winds as a result
while the Euro has it deeper/more moist and kind of cutting off
nearby. The Euro has trended further east on the 12z run, nudging
slightly towards the GFS` solution. Slight PoPs are in the grids
for now late next week, but I would lean towards the GFS/dry
solution. Through the period, modest winds are expected with
steady temperatures near or just below average for late January.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 428 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2024
Active period of weather for the region. CIGs will lower through
the night and into Sunday due to an approaching system. Expect
BKN- OVC250 this evening becoming OVC100 later tonight then down
to 050 into Sunday. SCT -SHRA also beginning around 12Z Sunday,
then another round during the afternoon. CIGs/VIS will lower to
MVFR Sunday early to midday across western areas, and in any
-SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2024
Fire weather concerns remain low through the forecast period. Two
Pacific storms pass by the region during the first half of next
week, bringing mountain snow and lowland rain showers. The first
one comes through Sunday night with potential for moderate
snowfall in the Sacramento Mountains. Snow levels at 7000-8000 ft
are expected during this system, so only those higher elevations
should see accumulating snow. Precipitation will last from Sunday
morning into Monday with the next system following quickly behind
Monday night. The second storm should be stronger and more moist
with impactful snow possible again Tuesday into Wednesday above
7000 ft. Modest winds and better moisture keeps the threat of fire
spreads low. Temperatures stay near or slightly below normal.
Drier conditions return for the second half of next week.
Min RHs will range from 25-40% in the lowlands Sunday, rising to
45-65% on Tuesday; 50-70% in the mountains Sunday, rising to
65-85% on Tuesday. Vent rates will be poor to good.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 42 62 44 63 / 10 40 50 20
Sierra Blanca 32 60 38 59 / 10 20 40 10
Las Cruces 37 57 38 58 / 10 50 50 20
Alamogordo 34 55 37 57 / 10 50 60 20
Cloudcroft 27 34 26 34 / 10 50 60 20
Truth or Consequences 38 55 37 58 / 10 50 50 20
Silver City 36 47 36 48 / 20 70 70 50
Deming 35 57 36 58 / 10 60 70 40
Lordsburg 37 55 38 55 / 30 70 70 60
West El Paso Metro 40 60 43 60 / 10 40 50 20
Dell City 27 59 36 61 / 0 20 30 0
Fort Hancock 36 66 40 65 / 10 30 40 20
Loma Linda 33 55 39 54 / 10 30 50 20
Fabens 39 65 41 63 / 10 40 50 20
Santa Teresa 37 58 39 58 / 10 40 50 20
White Sands HQ 39 57 44 60 / 10 50 50 20
Jornada Range 36 55 38 58 / 10 50 50 20
Hatch 36 58 38 61 / 10 50 60 20
Columbus 39 58 40 59 / 20 50 60 40
Orogrande 35 55 39 58 / 10 50 50 20
Mayhill 31 49 32 49 / 0 30 50 10
Mescalero 29 44 30 45 / 10 50 60 20
Timberon 26 44 27 45 / 10 40 60 20
Winston 30 49 30 51 / 10 60 50 20
Hillsboro 34 53 34 55 / 10 60 60 20
Spaceport 37 54 35 58 / 10 50 50 10
Lake Roberts 32 45 32 46 / 20 70 70 50
Hurley 33 51 33 52 / 20 70 70 50
Cliff 37 52 37 53 / 40 70 70 60
Mule Creek 37 47 37 48 / 50 70 70 60
Faywood 37 50 36 52 / 10 70 70 30
Animas 37 57 38 56 / 30 70 70 60
Hachita 37 57 39 57 / 30 60 70 60
Antelope Wells 39 59 38 58 / 20 60 60 60
Cloverdale 42 52 40 51 / 20 70 70 60
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
945 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024
Arctic high pressure will keep it`s iron grip on the ArkLaMiss
overnight with the 1036mb contour progged on HRRR to mill around
back and forth a tad over the same zones along and east of I-49.
Otherwise, the NE winds will start to veer to E and eventually SE
later tomorrow. Our 5pm balloon sounding showed a NE flow depth up
to 5kft or about 850mb, before backing from NE to NW rather
quickly in the brisk flow aloft. Moisture is going to continue to
increase in the mid and upper levels, with some lower deck
arriving during the mid to late day. So at the high altitude
overnight, we really should not have much of a blanketing effect
with still many stars out there. Plus, our dew points remain in
the low to mid teens. So plenty of time yet to fall overnight with
the "10 at 10 Rule" that is often seen to work with high pressure
in the daylight, seemingly is going to work out tonight as well.
Latest obs are all pretty much 10 degrees away from home on the
low temp grid with no need for changes. The Hard Freeze Warning
starts at midnight, and with all sites at or below freezing
already, at least for all but a couple of deep east TX sites, we
should do well there. Overnight, our surface winds will slack a
bit, but keep a chill going as well. This hard freeze warning will
expire at 9am in the morning. /24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024
By Monday morning, precipitation looks to have overtaken the entire
ArkLaTex, and aside from a few lingering areas of freezing mix north
of the I-30 corridor, will consist entirely of rainfall. The precip
should be entirely liquid by Monday afternoon, after which point
areawide rainfall chances will define the majority of the coming
week.
The upper level pattern through the course of the week will in fact
be relatively dynamic, but will result in a fairly unchanging status
for the ArkLaTex. After the initial troughing which ushers in the
new week, a series of impulses will follows in its footsteps and act
as forcing mechanisms to sustain our active pattern. Throughout,
southwesterly flow aloft and variable but generally southerly flow
at the surface will funnel ample moisture into the region,
sustaining a richly saturated environment for the impulses to work
with. In short, it is shaping up to be very rainy for a largely
uninterrupted stretch of the coming week.
The Day 3 and Day 4 ERO include much of the ArkLaTex in a Marginal
Risk, with portions of deep east Texas in a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding Monday, pushing east
into north central Louisiana Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of
2 to 4 inches anticipated, and locally higher values possible. As
the southwesterly flow throughly warms the Four State Region, highs
will return to the 50s and 60s and lows will remain above freezing
again across the entire region for much of next week. Friday may see
a mild dent in the warming trend and a tapering off of rainfall as
the surface boundary pushes south of the region, but rainfall
chances look to make a return by the end of this extended forecast
period. /26/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024
For the 21/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail this period
with increasing cirrus this evening and overnight. Expect low VFR
cigs to eventually overspread our airspace throughout the day on
Sunday ahead of the next upper-level disturbance set to arrive by
late Sunday night. Winds will generally maintain an E/NE component
between 5-10 kts, trending slightly more E/SE late in the period.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 22 41 35 58 / 0 0 50 100
MLU 18 42 32 58 / 0 0 20 70
DEQ 17 36 28 46 / 0 0 70 100
TXK 19 36 32 49 / 0 0 60 100
ELD 15 39 29 52 / 0 0 30 90
TYR 24 39 35 57 / 0 0 70 100
GGG 22 40 34 57 / 0 0 60 100
LFK 26 43 37 62 / 0 0 50 100
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Sunday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Sunday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Sunday for OKZ077.
TX...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Sunday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-138-151>153-166-167.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19