Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/12/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
853 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A complex Winter Storm will impact the Northland through
Saturday
- Localized heavy lake effect snow bands will continue along
the North Shore, especially north of Silver Bay, tonight into
Friday morning.
- Snow will become more widespread with increasing winds across
the Northland Friday afternoon and night, persisting into
Saturday
- Blizzard conditions will develop across much of the South
Shore Friday afternoon through Saturday morning where intense
lake effect snow is expected.
- Dangerous conditions on Lake Superior with Gale to Storm Force
winds, building waves, heavy freezing spray and significantly
reduced visibility is snow developing Friday and Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
Satellite imagery supports the model trend guidance this evening
of a frontogenetically-forced band of moderate snowfall lifting
north of northern St Louis County where a few inches of snowfall
has been observed from late afternoon to early evening so far.
Expect snow covered roadways through any late evening travel in
this area tonight, especially between Cook and Ely where reports
and webcams indicated the heaviest observed snowfall.
Further eastward into the Arrowhead, onshore steamers will
continue through tonight under onshore convergent easterly flow.
This will be most prominent in Cook County, but Lake County will
still have potential (50% chance) of seeing an additional few
inches of snowfall. The Winter Storm Warning for southern Lake
County was cancelled and replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory
for the expected fewer impacts through tonight. Confidence
continues in additional heavy snowfall (around 4-6 inches) of
localized snowfall in Cook County as well through Friday morning
so the ongoing Warning for that entire County was extended in
time till Noon Friday.
The ongoing messaging for the system tomorrow remains similar
though so no major changes were made beyond the immediate
short-term forecast grids this evening concerning the storm
beginning Friday daylight morning hours that persists into
Saturday.
Taking a look at combined probabilities of wind gusts greater
than 35 mph and visibility around or less than 1/4 mile, the
chances of blizzard conditions for Bayfield and northern Ashland
Counties increase from 2 to 5 PM Friday. There is around a 70%
chance of meeting those blizzard conditions for much of Friday
evening and overnight before tapering 3 to 6 AM Saturday.
Impacts to travel on State Route 13 and US Hwy 2 for Friday
evening and overnight are expected from whiteout conditions.
Decreasing wind gust speeds in the Saturday morning daylight
hours help to decrease the blizzard potential after 6 AM Sat,
but heavy lake effect snowfall continues with winds still
gusting to 35 mph Saturday daytime. So even after the overnight
whiteout conditions taper Saturday morning, continue to expect
blowing snowfall and at least moderate impacts to travel.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 500 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
Complex weather scenario will continue to unfold tonight
through Sunday morning. A weakening area of low pressure was
located over northwest Wisconsin as of 21Z with an inverted
trough extending northwestward into southeast Manitoba. A cold
front extended from the Arrowhead of Minnesota through Wisconsin
and into eastern Iowa. A persistent area of low-level
frontogenesis (surface to around 850 mb) and strong surface
convergence continued to support a band of intense lake-effect
snow. The band slowly lifted northeastward during the day and
only moved about 20 miles since 12Z this morning. The band
appears to have been overtaken by the mid-level frontogenetic
band of snow in the past hour. Time will tell whether the low-
level band re-emerges or if it`s been disrupted. High-resolution
model guidance including the HRRR and the Hi-res FV3 and ARW
show the band propagating northeastward along the shore to Grand
Portage through late tonight. Additional snowfall amounts will
vary greatly as snow rates under the initial band of snow were
approximately 1 to 2 inches per hour based on reports received
this afternoon.
The low pressure system will continue to fill through tonight
as a far more potent storm system lifts out of the central
Plains and into Illinois overnight. By mid-morning the remnant
trough from today`s system will evolve into an inverted trough
associated with the stronger mid-latitude cyclone to the south.
A tight pressure gradient will develop at the surface and strong
winds aloft are forecast. Strong cold air advection will
develop over much of our Minnesota zones during the day Friday.
Another frontogenetic and convergence-based band of lake-effect
snow will trek back southwestward along the North Shore during
the day. Winter Storm Warning for the Arrowhead are set to
expire tonight and additional headlines will likely be needed on
Friday as the next bout of snow develops. Snow is forecast to
become widespread over the Northland Friday morning with the
greatest snowfall expected Friday afternoon for areas in
Minnesota. Winter Weather Advisories are posted for areas which
will receive the greatest snowfall Friday and Friday evening in
Minnesota. Additional headlines may be needed for the Arrowhead.
Northwest Wisconsin is a bit more complicated. Winds aloft will
back northerly and then northwesterly through Friday setting up
lake-effect snow for the South Shore into inland northwest
Wisconsin. In addition to the lake-effect snow development,
synoptic-scale forcing for ascent will provide a broad area of
snow over northwest Wisconsin during the day. Snow totals over
northwest Wisconsin increased by several inches with this
forecast package prompting additional headlines. For the time
being, opted for a Winter Storm Watch for Burnett, Washburn,
Sawyer, and Price counties. Snow amounts of 4 to 9 inches are
forecast. Since snow won`t begin in earnest until Friday
morning, there is still time to review new runs of the models
and determine whether the snow amounts and winds are trending in
the correct direction.
As the Plains cyclone propagates across the central Great Lakes
and into southeast Ontario by Saturday morning, winds aloft
over the Northland will continue to strengthen. Widespread wind
gusts of 25 to 45 mph are forecast. The combination of falling
snow and strong winds will reduce visibility over Douglas,
Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties. The poorest conditions are
expected over Bayfield and Ashland counties as the upstream
winds will have a longer period of interaction with the warm
waters (35 to 40 degrees F) of Lake Superior. Not only will this
enhance the snow production due to sensible heat and moisture
flux, the deeper mixed layer over the lake will transfer more
momentum from the strong winds aloft down to the surface. We
expect northern portions of Bayfield and Ashland counties to
experience a long period of blizzard conditions, 6 to 9 hours or
so, with visibilities less than 1/4 mile and wind gusts of 30
to 45 mph. Blizzard Warnings are now in effect for those
counties. Shorter periods of blizzard conditions are possible
over northwestern portions of Douglas County, including portions
of US-2 and WI-13, generally east and north of Maple. Blizzard
conditions may also affect portions of US-2 in Iron County in
the vicinity of Birch Hill. Those Winter Storm Warnings may
eventually be upgraded to Blizzard Warnings if conditions
warrant.
Winds and snow will gradually taper off from west to east as
the storm system lifts northeastward into Quebec by Sunday
morning.
The strong winds and cold air advection will raise the
potential for dangerous wind chills starting Friday night. Wind
Chill Advisories will likely be needed for Friday night and
again Saturday night. A few locations may see wind chills of 40
to 45 below zero for a time both Sunday and Monday mornings.
Cyclonic northwest flow aloft will persist across the Upper
Midwest through next week and will usher in the coldest air of
the winter thus far. A near daily threat for dangerous wind
chills is likely with this pattern and Wind Chill headlines will
be inevitable. This pattern also supports light lake effect
snow potential, especially for the South Shore, given a very
slow start to ice development on the lake.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
MVFR stratus prevails over the northern two thirds of the
Northland this evening, with a pocket of VFR in the Brainerd
Lakes to Hayward spreading northeastward and diminishing in
coverage through early tonight. Flurries may continue overnight
within this low stratus, but is largely expected to remain VFR
visibility. The next widerspread snow storm lifts into northwest
Wisconsin Friday morning, to bring reduced conditions from
southeast to northwest Friday 17 to 21Z. Winds near Lake
Superior quickly increase 19-22Z tomorrow and create areas of
blowing snowfall, further reducing visibility at coastal
terminals alongside moderate snowfall.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 406 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
Dangerous conditions will develop across western Lake Superior
Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Martin Luther King Jr. Monday with
multiple hazards. Northeast wind gusts will increase to Gale
Force by early Friday afternoon, with near Storm Force gusts
Friday evening and night. Waves will build with significant wave
heights of 10 to 15 feet from Grand Portage through the Twin
Ports to Sand Island. Significant wave heights of 15 to 20 feet
are forecast for most of the outer Apostle Islands through Saxon
Harbor. Heavy freezing spray will also develop as much cold air
arrives with the increasing waves and winds. Significantly
reduced visibility in heavy snow is also expected. Winds will
turn to become out of the north to northwest Saturday into
Sunday with widespread Gale Force gusts. Heavy freezing spray
will continue. Multiple Watches and Warnings are in effect for
western Lake Superior through the weekend. On Martin Luther King
Jr. Day on Monday conditions hazardous to small craft in
westerly winds and freezing spray are expected.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday
for MNZ011-019-025-026-033>038.
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Friday for MNZ012-021.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Friday for MNZ020.
WI...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday for
WIZ001.
Blizzard Warning from 6 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday for
WIZ002-003.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to 9 AM CST Sunday for
WIZ004.
Winter Storm Watch from 6 AM CST Friday through Saturday
morning for WIZ006>009.
MARINE...Gale Warning from noon Friday to 10 AM CST Saturday for LSZ121-
145-146-148.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 PM Friday to 10 AM CST
Sunday for LSZ121-148.
Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for LSZ140-141.
Gale Warning from noon Friday to 4 AM CST Saturday for LSZ140-
141.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 4 PM Friday to 10 PM CST
Saturday for LSZ140>144.
Storm Watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening
for LSZ140-141.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ142-
143.
Gale Warning from noon Friday to 4 PM CST Saturday for LSZ142.
Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening
for LSZ142.
Gale Warning from noon Friday to 9 PM CST Saturday for LSZ143-
144.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 PM Friday to 4 AM CST
Monday for LSZ145>147-150.
Gale Warning from noon Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for LSZ147-
150.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NLy
DISCUSSION...PA/Huyck
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...PA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
932 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
Previous expectations for an impactful blizzard still appear on
track this evening. Recent RAP analysis continue to show
tremendous thermodynamic support upstream with deep warm and moist
advection advancing northward from MO. This should eventually
result in extreme snowfall rates during the early morning hours
with low static stabilities and frontogenetic contributions
phased. Thundersnow is not out of the question, with thunder
already occurring between St. Louis and Quincy.
00Z HREF progs still align with this thinking and suggest 1"+/hr
snowfall rates moving northward from southern into central IA
06-09z with only a minor decrease heading toward sunrise.
Confidence is high that this will be followed by blizzard
conditions later Friday considering the heavy snow, cold
temperatures, and wind gusts to 45 mph by afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../This afternoon through Wednesday/
Issued at 224 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
Key Messages:
- Another heavy snow event will occur tonight into Saturday
morning, with a wide swath of 5-7 inches or more across nearly
the entire area.
- Strong winds, continuing light snow, and deep snow on the ground
will combine to produce blizzard conditions and make travel very
dangerous from around midday Friday through Friday night.
- Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills will dominate the
region from later Saturday into Tuesday.
Obviously the primary focus of the forecast is the significant
winter storm and Arctic cold outbreak slated to impact Iowa over
the next several days. Currently a large 500 mb low is centered
over western Canada, while a rather energetic southern stream
trough moving eastward across the Rocky Mountain region of the
U.S. As this trough emerges into the High Plains tonight it will
sharpen and deepen quickly, then become positively tilted and
close off as it moves northeastward over the Midwest on Friday and
into the Great Lakes region by Friday night. This will induce
rapid surface cyclogenesis, with a large low tracking from
Oklahoma into Missouri tonight, then bombing out over Illinois on
Friday. The large precipitation shield developing around the
northwest hemisphere of this gyre will fall smack dab over Iowa,
spreading in from the south and southwest tonight and out of our
northeastern counties on Friday morning. Within this initial surge
of precipitation, strong forcing and deep saturation through the
dendritic growth layer will promote significant QPF and snowfall
amounts, with snow accumulation rates exceeding an inch per hour
for several hours overnight. This will make travel very hazardous
overnight, with accumulations of around 5-7 inches on top of the
existing snow pack and remaining snow on roadways from the storm
earlier this week. No significant changes were made to total
snowfall amounts with the forecast update and the Winter Storm
Warning remains in effect overnight. It is worth noting that the
forecast snowfall totals from the upcoming storm combined with
those from the storm earlier this week will raise five-day
snowfall amounts from Monday through Friday of this week to near
all-time records, making this one of the snowiest weeks in history
for portions of the area.
During the day on Friday as the surface cyclone deepens rapidly
and passes just to our southeast, winds will increase
significantly from the northwest with cold air advection kicking
in. Most model guidance indicates gusts to around 35 KT from
around midday or early afternoon into Friday night, and
soundings/cross-sections show that while overall moisture will be
lower/shallower, it will be deeper within the DGZ as the column
cools, and weak but persistent lift will promote lingering light
snowfall through the day and into the night. While accumulations
during that time will be lighter than with the initial heavier
snow event tonight, it will be falling on top of a very deep snow
pack with the fresh heavier snow from tonight and the pre-
existing snow from earlier this week. This has rendered most
ditches full and surfaces slick, and the additional falling snow
combined with what is lofted off the deep existing snow pack will
promote significant blowing snow and very low
visibility/dangerous travel conditions through Friday afternoon
and night. HREF and other high-resolution guidance shows positive
probabilities for blizzard conditions, supported by the
persistently strong forecast winds, and given the enhancing
factors of the existing snow pack and increased impacts on a
weekday afternoon/evening, have issued a Blizzard Warning from
late Friday morning through Friday night. The strong winds will
actually persist or re-surge during the day Saturday when blowing
snow will continue to be a problem, however, with falling snow
having ended by that time confidence in visibilities and impacts
that would support a Blizzard Warning is lower, and a later
transition to another winter weather hazard type is likely.
Aside from the forecast considerations and hazards associated with
the prolonged snowfall and strong winds, extremely cold air will
also surge into the region behind this storm system and persist
for several days. High temperatures will only be generally in the
single digits above zero on Saturday, then on Sunday and Monday
remain below zero through the day, and on Tuesday only barely peek
above again. Combined with the strong winds, especially during the
earlier part of this period, the result will be multiple days of
nearly continuous wind chill values below -30, and below -40 at
times, making for one of the most prolonged dangerously cold
periods in recent memory across central Iowa. A Wind Chill Watch
has been issued from Saturday night through Tuesday morning, and
this will likely be upgraded to a Warning sometime tomorrow. All
time outdoors should be limited during this Arctic cold outbreak,
and any appropriate precautions taken when venturing out.
From Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period no
significant storm systems, precipitation chances, or hazardous
weather events are foreseen at this time. However, temperatures
will remain generally cold and the deep snow pack in place, so
minor blowing snow and slick travel spots may persist for quite
some time.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/
Issued at 603 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
Conditions varied from VFR in mid clouds northeast down to
MVFR/IFR farther south and west where lower ceilings were in
place. Much of the precipitation in central IA was still aloft
for the time being. Snow is expected to overspread central IA SW
to NE later this evening however, and last well into Friday.
Winds will increase tomorrow as well, with 30-40kt gusts possible.
Ceilings, falling snow, and blowing snow will all contribute to
widespread and prolonged IFR/LIFR conditions with blizzard
conditions anticipated tomorrow.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CST Friday for IAZ004>007-
015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097.
Blizzard Warning from 10 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday for
IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097.
Wind Chill Watch from Saturday evening through Tuesday morning
for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Small
DISCUSSION...Lee
AVIATION...Small
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
719 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow moves into southern and eastern areas tonight with
1 to 3 inches possible, highest amounts in Norton and Graham
counties.
- Arctic front briefly retreats on Friday to around the Colorado
and Kansas border with highs in the teens in eastern areas and
30s in western areas.
- Several days of bitterly cold temperatures and life
threatening wind chills begins Friday night and continues
through Monday. Occasional light snow will also occur during
that time, but significant accumulations are not currently
anticipated.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
Winter Weather Advisory for most of NW Kansas and eastern
Colorado has been allowed to expire as blowing snow concerns
have significantly decreased. The Winter Weather Advisory for
Graham and Norton counties does continue however through 6am
CST. Periods of near blizzard to blizzard conditions does remain
possible through the night as winds continue to gust up to 40
mph.
Other changes to the forecast include slightly increasing
temperatures across western portions of the area due to strong
downsloping from the Rockies. Also increased wind gusts along
the higher elevations of eastern Colorado as guidance has
consistently been showing 40-45 knot wind gusts occurring
through the afternoon from the downsloping winds. Also am
starting to get a little more concerned about another band of
snow developing Friday evening along the main cold front. RAP
and HRRR both show very strong pressure rises of 8-11mb over 3
hours just behind the front along with soundings showing the
potential for 35+ knot winds that could mixed down as well.
Latest runs of the HRRR and RAP both show that a quick couple
inches could be possible. This along with the potential gusty
winds may bring again bring a couple hours of near blizzard to
blizzard conditions after sunset mainly along and north of I-70.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 502 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
Due to winds overachieving and sites already dropping below -10
and a few in Gove county already falling below -15 have opted
to go ahead and start the Wind Chill Advisory at 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
Arctic air has moved into the area accompanied by gusty north
winds and light snow. Brief bursts of moderate snow rates
combined with blowing snow have reduced visibility to less than
a mile at times, though accumulations have been minor at best.
The area of snow will expand into areas south of Interstate 70
this afternoon and then pivot eastward tonight. Norton and
Graham counties stand the best chances of seeing up to 3 inches
of accumulation tonight, so no changes planned for the ongoing
Winter Weather Advisory area. As skies clear after midnight
temperatures, already in the low to mid teens, should have no
problem falling to around zero with wind chills around 15 to 20
below. As a result, no changes planned for the Wind Chill
Advisory either.
For Friday, Arctic front still looks to retreat as a warm front
to along the Colorado and Kansas border area during the
afternoon with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s to the west
and teens to the east. Another shortwave trough rotating around
an upper low in the northern High Plains will bring a chance for
light snow Friday night and send a renewed surge of Arctic air
south. An inch or two of dry snow will be possible. North winds
will increase to around 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph, so patchy
blowing snow will be possible. Lows will be in the single digits
below zero with wind chills bottoming out around 25 to 30
below, so Wind chill Warning on track.
For Saturday and Sunday, cold temperatures and wind chills will
be the main story. High temperatures both days will be around
zero and lows 10 to 15 below. Night and morning wind chills will
be around 25 below but even daytime wind chills will be 15 to 20
below. So the long term Wind Chill Warning seems to be
appropriate. As for snow chances, on Saturday would expect only
a few flurries in the Arctic air but probably no accumulation.
On Sunday will see better chances with another shortwave
rotating around the main upper low in the northern plains.
Amounts look similar to what we have seen, an inch or two of
dry snow. However, winds speeds on Sunday will be less than 10
mph so not expecting any blowing snow with that round.
Temperatures Sunday night will once again drop to 10 to 15 below
with wind chills 25 to 30 below.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
Arctic outbreak continues through Monday with highs in the
single digits and lows Monday night around 10 below. Light snow
chances continue as well with another inch or so possible
through the day.
Temperatures moderate on Tuesday and Wednesday with subtle
shortwave riding aloft westerly winds at the surface. High
temperatures expected to be in the 20s and 30s on Tuesday and
30s and 40s on Wednesday. By Thursday will need to watch for
another shortwave dropping south out of Canada which will bring
a chance for light snow and colder temperatures. GFS more
aggressive with both the snow chances and colder temperatures
compared to the ECMWF at this point in the forecast. So, will
need to keep in mind the forecast could trend in that direction
the next few days given the overall current pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 400 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
Periods of LIFR visibilities will continue through around 01Z
as mini snow bands move across the KGLD terminal. As for KMCK,
more of consistent light snow will cause visibilities at time
to fall to around 1SM. This should come to an end around 03Z
with breezy winds continue through around sunset. Ceilings
should rise back to VFR at or a little after midnight local
time.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ Friday for
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
Wind Chill Warning from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Friday to 11 AM
MST /noon CST/ Tuesday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-
042.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for KSZ004-016.
CO...Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM MST Friday for COZ090>092.
Wind Chill Warning from 5 PM Friday to 11 AM MST Tuesday for
COZ090>092.
NE...Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ Friday for
NEZ079>081.
Wind Chill Warning from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Friday to 11 AM
MST /noon CST/ Tuesday for NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...JDK
LONG TERM...JDK
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
913 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
New Information added to update section
.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
No changes to headlines this evening, as the overall forecast
seems on track. Considered the issuance of a Blizzard Warning
for the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas late Friday afternoon and
Friday night. Wind gusts will easily exceed the 35 mph criteria
and moderate to heavy snow will be ongoing, but overall confidence
in sustained 1/4 mile visibilities is not quite there. Opted to
continue the mention of near-blizzard conditions in the WSW
product.
Otherwise, made minor changes to slow down the timing of the
incoming snow late tonight into Friday morning, and increased
snowfall amounts to 12 to 14 inches in the eastern Fox Valley and
lakeshore areas. Do not feel that east flow off Lake Michigan
will result in as much rain or lowered snowfall amounts as what
happened on Tuesday. A quick comparison of the low-level thermal
profile between Tuesday and Friday indicated that 925/850 mb
temperatures will be about 2 C cooler with the upcoming system,
and 1000-850 thicknesses are lower too. That being said, we still
kept slightly lower snowfall totals of 8 to 10 inches in the Two
Rivers and Manitowoc areas.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong low pressure system remains on track to bring heavy
snow and strong winds to the region on Friday and Saturday.
Total snowfall amounts and winds have remained relatively
steady since the previous forecast. The probability of 6 inches
or more of snow ranges from around 60 percent over north-
central Wisconsin to greater than 90 percent over northeast
Wisconsin. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued.
- The system will likely impact the forecast area in two phases.
The first phase will arrive on Friday morning with a relatively
wetter snowfall and moderate east winds. Some rain may mix in
with the snow along the lakeshore at times. Precipitation will
likely transition to a lighter, fluffier snow Friday night at
the same time as north winds increase to 35 to 50 mph across
the region. Near blizzard conditions will be possible at times
on Friday night and travel is strongly discouraged.
- Much colder temperatures move into the region after the system
departs on Saturday. Wind chills may become dangerously cold
each morning from Sunday to Wednesday, possibly warranting
wind chill headlines.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Friday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show the storm
system that impacted the region last night has exited the region
to the central and eastern Great Lakes. Clearing has occurred over
a good chunk of northeast WI. Meanwhile, low stratus remains
present across much of western and southern Wisconsin. Flurries
have been ongoing across far northwest and north-central WI as
well as northeast Minnesota near a weak surface trough.
Looking upstream, a Colorado low is emerging from the Rockies with
snow developing on the northern flank of the system. Warm
advection clouds are already streaming into southwest Minnesota
ahead of the low.
Forecast concerns continue to revolve around the evolution of the
the potent Colorado low as it moves into the Great Lakes on
Friday, along with the heavy snow and strong wind trends.
Tonight...Light wintry precip will likely continue across far
northern WI along the surface trough. Forecast soundings indicate
it remains possible that ice crystals are lost in the clouds,
though haven`t seen evidence of that upstream. No matter, don`t
think any freezing drizzle or light snow will be significant
enough to cause much in the way of impacts. Otherwise, mid and
upper clouds will continue to increase across the region and lower
through the night. After midnight, an increasing 50-60kt low level
jet will send the first wave of precip towards central and east-
central WI by 5-6 am Friday.
Friday morning through late Friday afternoon...Strong
frontogenesis aloft on the nose of the low level jet will provide
the focus for the first wave of moderate to heavy precip to spread
rapidly north across the region during the morning. The href
indicates that snowfall rates may reach up to 1"/hour within this
band of precip thanks to strong lift in a 5000 ft dendritic snow
growth zone. These heavier snowfall rates will likely impact parts
of central and east- central WI during the morning commute before
reaching far northeast WI around midday. Snowfall amounts could
reach 2-4" to 3-5" over parts of central and east-central WI
through the noon hour, while may only reach an inch near the U.P.
border.
There are some indications of a relative lull in the precipitation
after 12 pm as the surface low approaches southern Lake Michigan
by 6 pm Friday. Behind the fgen band, forcing weakens for a time
and there is evidence of saturation issues aloft that has lead to
a decrease in precip during the afternoon hours. The reduced
precip rates, combined with diurnal heating and strengthening east
winds could lead to surface temps warming into the 32 to 34
degree range along the lakeshore. As we saw in the last storm
earlier this week, the warming temps above freezing could lead to
lower snow accumulations and maybe even rain mixing in with the
snow for a time. Manually lowered snow ratios and raised temps to
account for this possibility. The highest snowfall should occur
over far northeast WI where the fgen band will be in the process
of lifting northward. Snowfall amounts could range from 1-2
inches over east- central and lakeshore to 3-5" near Niagara and
Wausaukee.
Late Friday afternoon through Friday night...As the low continues
to lift northeast and slows across the Lower Peninsula of
Michigan, snowfall rates are expected to increase again late
Friday afternoon into Friday evening and approach 1"+/hour once
again. At the same time, winds will be backing around to the
north, and reducing the lake influence on temperatures and
increasing snow:liquid ratios. The increase precip rates should
lead to any mixing precip types changing back over to snow. The
column will be cooling in the process, and therefore, should see a
change of snow types from the relatively wet or normal into the
dry/fluffy type. Winds will also be increasing to a widespread 35
to 50 mph, highest along the Lake Michigan shoreline.
The combo of strong winds and dry, fluffy snow will lead to
significant blowing and drifting and near blizzard conditions.
Another 1-2" to 3-5" appears possible during the evening hours.
East-west orientated roads and highways will be most impacted. Travel
will be strongly discouraged on Friday night.
In terms of headlines, will be upgrading the entire Winter Storm
Watch to a Winter Storm Warning, and add Vilas, Oneida, and
Lincoln into the Warning as well. Forecast snowfall amounts have
remained steady, perhaps decreased slightly along the lakeshore
and increased slightly over north-central WI. This puts the entire
forecast area into the 6-12" range, highest over northeast WI.
Long Term...Friday Night Through Thursday
Focus for the long-term forecast period continues to be a strong
winter storm that will bring impacts to much of the forecast area
as it departs Friday night into Saturday morning. Most recent
ensemble guidance has been tracking the driving surface low
further west and deepening it quicker as it approaches the Great
Lakes region. Some models have suggested that the low will deepen
by as much as 12 to 14 mb over a 12-hour period as it moves from
the southern Plains into the Ohio River Valley, which may affect
snowfall rates, amounts, and wind gusts across the forecast area.
A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow and strong winds is now in
effect for the entire CWA given higher snow totals trending further
north and west.
Precipitation... Remnant light to moderate snowfall will likely
be ongoing especially across the Fox Valley to lakeshore areas as
the system exits to the northeast late Friday night into early
Saturday morning. Given recent model trends tracking the surface
low across southwest Michigan to southern Lake Michigan, exact
snowfall amounts along the lakeshore area have become slightly
more uncertain. Probabilities of exceeding 6 inches of snowfall
remain in the 80 to 90% range for much of east-central Wisconsin,
with higher storm totals likely especially after Friday night as
cold air makes its way further south and the transition to all
snow has occurred. Snow ratios are expected to increase during
this time, resulting in lighter and fluffier snow that will
accumulate quicker. For this reason, current probabilistic
guidance has suggested increased probabilities of exceeding 8 to
10 inches of snowfall across most of east-central Wisconsin with
locally higher amounts approaching 12 inches in proximity to the
lakeshore.
Winds... Winds are expected to start ramping up on the back edge
of the system as it continues to deepen Friday night. Lingering
high pressure hovering across the US/Canada border to the
northwest will continue to force a tight pressure gradient on the
back end of the surface low, with probabilities of exceeding 40
mph wind gusts increasing to around 70 to 90% along much of the
Wisconsin/UP border and lakeshore areas. 50 to 70% probabilities
of approaching 50 mph wind gusts are mostly confined to the Fox
Valley to the lakeshore. Light snow will continue to fall on top
of a fresh snowpack during this time, making blowing and drifting
snow a continued hazard to travel.
Temperatures... Arctic air will move in to much of the Midwest
following the passage of this system. Near surface temperatures
Monday and Tuesday hone in to around 12 to 14 degrees colder than
the model climatology for this time of year, with the NAEFS
suggesting surface temperatures to be around 3 standard deviations
below average for this time. Low temperatures Sunday morning
through Wednesday morning are expected to be dangerously cold,
ranging from the single to double digits below zero with winds
still gusting over 20 mph. At temperatures this low, it won`t take
much wind to quickly tank wind chills down into the mid 20s to
low 30s below zero, especially Monday and Tuesday morning. This
would put us solidly within Wind Chill Advisory criteria, so
continuing to monitor the potential for wind chill headlines
during this time.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 543 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
MVFR ceilings covered the forecast area early this evening, and
patchy light flurries and freezing drizzle were occurring across
far north central WI. A deepening winter storm was organizing near
the TX/OK panhandles.
Light snow will begin to spread into the area as the winter storm
arrives around sunrise Friday. Snow intensity and reduced
visibilities will then spread from south to north during the mid
to late morning, with IFR vsbys west and LIFR vsbys in eastern WI.
Poor flying conditions (mainly IFR/LIFR, but isolated LIFR
possible in eastern WI) will continue Friday afternoon and
eveningh due to moderate to heavy snow and strong northeast to
north winds. The worst conditions will likely occur in the Fox
Valley, bayshore and lakeshore areas in the late afternoon and
evening, as gusts increase to 35 to 45 kts. Considerable blowing
and drifting of the snow is expected with near white-out
conditions at times from Friday evening into Saturday morning.
Snowfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches are expected in north central
WI, with 8 to 12 inches across the rest of the forecast area.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday for
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021-073-074.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday for
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
DISCUSSION.....MPC/Goodin
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1100 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 PM EST THU JAN 11 2024
Valley temps have continued their decline but have slowed. Even
so, it has necessitated another small lowering of forecast mins.
UPDATE Issued at 855 PM EST THU JAN 11 2024
Valley temps fell quickly as is usually the case on good radiating
evenings without much wind. Some locations were already near the
forecast lows as of early evening, and this update takes the
forecast mins in valleys colder over a larger area. Low level
winds will begin to increase from the west overnight, especially
toward dawn, and this could bring some mixing at the surface to
push temperatures upward.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 505 PM EST THU JAN 11 2024
Key Messages:
- Strong winds are expected to develop ahead of an approaching low
pressure system for Friday and Friday night.
- Wind gusts of generally 35 to 50 mph during two time periods, Friday
morning into Friday afternoon and then after a brief lull
during the late afternoon or early evening. A Wind Advisory
remains in effect from 7 AM EST Friday to 7 AM EST for all but
Harlan and Letcher counties.
- For Harlan and Letcher counties, wind gusts for elevations
above 2500 feet and locations immediately downwind of Pine and
Black Mountains are expected reach 60 mph or higher and a High
Wind Warning has been issued from 7 AM EST Friday to 5 PM EST.
- A Wind Advisory is in effect for Harlan and Letcher counties
from 5 PM EST Friday to 7 AM EST on Saturday for gusts of 40 to
50 mph.
- Isolated strong to damaging wind gusts within showers or
thunderstorms are possible late Friday afternoon and evening.
Late this afternoon, a shortwave trough was moving from Ontario
into Quebec to portions of the mid Atlantic sates, while a
shortwave ridge extended from the TN Valley to the mid MS to
portions of the upper MS Valley. Further west, an upper level
trough with multiple shortwaves moving through it extended from WY
to the Four Corners vicinity to the Southwest Conus while an
upper level low was centered over Alberta with a trough extended
into the Northwest Conus. At the surface, a frontal zone extended
from low pressure in the Maritimes across portions of the
Northeast U.S. to low pressure centered over the Upper MS valley
vicinity and then south and then southwest to an area of low
pressure in the SW KS/OK panhandle vicinity and then further
southwest into the Southwest Conus. Sfc high pressure meanwhile
was centered over the Southern Appalachians.
Tonight, the axis of the shortwave upper ridge is expected to
move northeast and across eastern KY this evening and into tonight
while the trough initially from WY to the Southwest Conus
consolidates into a more phased upper level trough over the Plains
and much of the Central Conus. An upper level low will gradually
close off over the NE to IA area by Friday morning as the
associated shortwave trough takes on a negative tilt as it
rotates into the mid MS Valley and the OH Valley on Friday. The
upper level low should meander to MI through the end of the period
while another shortwave trough is expected to rotate around it
and into the OH Valley to end the period. Sfc high pressure will
depart to the east of the region tonight while a somewhat complex
area of low pressure tracks toward the Ozarks/mid MS Valley region
and an associated boundary is expected to lift into the
Commonwealth late. The sfc low should continue to evolve and
deepen significantly on Friday as it tracks to the northwest of
eastern KY into IL and then IN into the Lower OH Valley and then
further northeast to MI and near Lake Huron by the end of the
short term period. The boundary should lift north as a warm front
on Friday to the OH River and then further north toward the Great
lakes region as an occluded front works across western and central
KY and then into and across eastern Ky on Friday evening. A cold
front, meanwhile, will approach the Commonwealth to end the
period.
Sfc high pressure departing to the east along with the departing
upper level ridge will set up a pattern favorable for a moderate
ridge/valley temperature split tonight as eastern valleys are
expected to decouple near or just after sunset. Mid to upper 20s are
expected for these eastern valley locations with southeastern
coalfield ridgetops dropping to the mid 30s. Winds aloft will
begin to pick up overnight as the sfc low begins to approach and
gradients increase. This could result in more mixiness along with
an increase in clouds late which could result in temperatures
rising a bit toward dawn.
The deepening system will lead to a further increase in pressure
gradients across the region on Friday morning into the afternoon.
At the same time winds aloft should also peak during that time when
925 mb winds should peak between 40 and 50KT and winds at 850 mb in
the 65 to 75KT range. Mixing should not reach the 850 mb level,
however, though momentum transfer should result in wind gusts for
many locations into wind advisory criteria for Friday morning
into the afternoon especially in areas of more open terrain and on
ridgetops with values near the 12Z HREF mean for those areas.
This should be followed by a brief lull in the evening and then
gusts pick up from the southwest behind the boundary by the later
part of Friday evening into Friday night. During the first and
perhaps the second period, gusts in some of the deeper more
sheltered valleys may fall a few mph short of 40 mph, perhaps
closer to 35 mph. However, across the higher terrain above 2500
feet and immediately downwind of Black and Pine Mountains in
Harlan and Letcher counties, recent HRRR runs as well as 12Z HREF
mean and even min data support wind gusts in excess of 60 mph
into the 60 to 70 mph range. For Harlan and Letcher, a High Wind
Warning has been issued from 7 AM to 5 PM on Friday with the Wind
Advisory for the 5 PM Friday to 7 AM Saturday period. Elsewhere,
the wind advisory remains in effect from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM on
Saturday.
Otherwise, as increasing moisture is transported into the region
and lift increases, showers should arrive from the west and
southwest toward midday and then a solid band of showers ahead of
the occluded front working across eastern KY during the afternoon
to early evening. Some showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm may accompany the boundary, though instability may
not be sufficient for thunder. Nevertheless, any stronger showers
of thunderstorms that might develop would be able to effectively
transfer momentum to the surface for localized stronger gusts
compared to the overall advisory level period. Ahead of the mid
and upper level trough, linger moisture and steepening lapse
rates from cold air advection may result in some showers mixing
with snow toward the end of the period. However, accumulations, if
any should be very minimal and generally confined to elevated and
grassy surfaces.
Temperatures ahead of the front should again be mild on Friday
ranging generally through the 50s, while temperatures should fall
into the 20s as the period ends.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 435 PM EST THU JAN 11 2024
Key Messages:
* Blustery and colder on Saturday as any lingering snow showers or
flurries end and skies clear.
* Arctic air begins seeping into eastern Kentucky Sunday morning
behind a shallow arctic front, leading to downward trending
temperatures early next week.
* Coastal storm system develops early next week and may interact
with the arctic boundary to produce an accumulating snowfall
from Sunday to Tuesday timeframe; details remain highly
uncertain.
* Frigid temperatures follow for the middle of the week, though
the magnitude of the cold remains uncertain.
Analysis and Discussion:
There is good synoptic agreement among the models showing an deep
500mb trough/low wobbling over Eastern Canada and making
incursions toward the Central and Eastern CONUS. Many of the finer
details, such as southeastward progress of associated arctic air,
remain less certain as models continue to offer a wide range of
solutions, leading to a low forecaster confidence on sensible
weather details.
At the surface, the stout pressure gradient, behind the strong storm
system affecting our region in the short-term, will weaken through
the day on Saturday. Rapid drying at the low-levels on
southwesterly flow will bring any linger snow showers to an end.
The theta-e gradient analysis shows the leading edge of the arctic
air slowly creeping southeastward into Eastern Kentucky Saturday
night and bleeding into the higher Appalachians early next week.
There is good agreement that a system forms along the
Gulf/Southeast Coast ahead of an area of southern stream energy,
while a potent northern stream vorticity lobe pivots across the
North Central CONUS and into the the Ohio Valley. However, the
extent of interaction between the arctic front (as well as the
depth and intensity of the arctic air mass behind it), northern
stream energy and this coastal low varies significantly from model
to model. The latest deterministic Canadian (features coldest and
deepest arctic air mass) and ECWMF (depicts least potent arctic
mass) offer the gamut of scenarios ranging from a a phasing system
with the potential for a blanket of fluffy, dry snow in the
former and little to nothing in the latter. The GFS shows a
compromise solution. The Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index
(WSSI-P) still shows a 30 to 50% chance of at least minor impacts
from accumulating snow.
The snowfall or lack thereof will have significant implications for
our temperatures during the early and middle portions of the new week.
Given the uncertainty, largely retained the NBM and latest raw
model blend as further adjustments will likely occur as the models
get a better handle on this next system. This yields high
temperatures in the 30s on Saturday followed by mid 20s to lower
30s on Sunday and Monday, and upper teens to mid 20s on Tuesday.
Maximum temperatures trend back toward or above the freezing mark
late in the period. Teens to lower 20s are forecast for most
nighttime lows, with exception of mainly single digits on Tuesday
night. If more than an inch or two of snow cover is realized,
there is substantial downside potential in the temperature
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 855 PM EST THU JAN 11 2024
In an unusual aviation forecast, winds will be the most
significant factor in this forecast cycle. After a night of
tranquil conditions, winds just of the surface will quickly
increase around dawn, and low level wind shear has been included
in all TAFs from 12-16Z. By 16Z enough mixing should be underway
for surface winds to increase and become very gusty out of the
south. Any perception of low level wind shear after that point is
likely to be due to turbulent mixing and not true wind shear in
laminar flow. Gusts over most of the area are expected to top 40
kts in the afternoon. Gustiness will subside somewhat toward
evening, but winds will still be brisk.
In terms of sky and visibility, prevailing VFR conditions are
forecast through the period. However, low end VFR ceilings are
expected to develop during the afternoon, along with showers.
While some occasional MVFR conditions can`t be ruled out, at this
point TEMPO groups will not be included in the TAFs at that long
range time. Downslope low level flow is likely to battle against
the precip to try to keep conditions VFR.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106>117-119-120.
High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 5 PM EST Friday for KYZ088-118.
Wind Advisory from 5 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for KYZ088-
118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
846 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
A powerful storm system will continue to develop over the
Southern Plains this evening. A 996 mb low over Oklahoma will
track northeast and rapidly intensify over the next 24 hours. The
associated front will push into the Mid-South late tonight and
early Friday. The latest HRRR develops a secondary surface low at
the triple point and tracks it to near Memphis by 8 am. This
feature will serve to back surface winds and enhance the helicity
across east-central AR and north MS and will help to support a
tornado threat.
Latest model soundings indicate very strong wind shear aloft and
somewhat robust thermodynamics. An increasingly favorable
parameter space includes surface dewpoints in the lower 60s and
SBCAPEs approaching 1000 J/kg from Coahoma eastward to Monroe
County, 0-1 km helicity values of 300+ m2/s2 and 0-6km shear of
80+ kts. Initial storms after midnight will be elevated with some
hail potential. Storms will become increasingly surface based as
the front approaches and low level moisture surges north. Expect
a line of storms to develop along or just ahead of the front. This
line will sweep across the area mainly south of I-40 by late
morning. Damaging winds are the main threat. Storms that tap the
very strong wind aloft will bring damaging wind gusts to the
surface. A few tornadoes are also possible given the favorable
hodographs.
In addition to the severe threat, this system is rapidly
intensifying and the tightening pressure gradient will result in
strong gradient winds both ahead of the front later tonight and
Friday morning and behind the front Friday afternoon and evening.
Latest model guidance continues to support isolated gusts over 50
mph which could down a few trees and powerlines and cause power
outages.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 344 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
An extremely active weather pattern will impact the Mid-South over
the next week or so. The first round of weather will impact the
entire Mid-South beginning late tonight as a deep low pressure
system moves through. The most widespread impact will be strong
winds and gusts up to 50 mph overnight through Friday night.
Additionally, a round of strong to severe thunderstorms will occur
for areas along and south of I-40 Friday morning. An arctic cold
front will push through the Mid-South Saturday night and set the
stage for a brush with winter weather and bitterly cold weather.
The first round of snow will occur Sunday into Monday with
additional snow possible Monday night into Tuesday. Thereafter,
dangerous wind chill temperatures will occur Tuesday and
Wednesday. Below freezing temperatures may extend through
late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
A nice and mild day across the Mid-South this afternoon.
Temperatures range from the upper 50s to lower 60s with a moderate
south wind. The latest surface analysis places a 995mb low over
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles with a 1016mb high over Southern
Appalachia. Aloft, a positively-tilted trough was analyzed over
the Four Corners Region.
A period of extremely active weather will begin tonight and
persist through the middle of next week. The pressure gradient
will strengthen considerably overnight tonight as the main trough
ejects through the Southern Great Plains and the surface low
deepens over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Model guidance suggests
the low will deepen nearly 15mb through 18Z Friday as it pivots
into southern Illinois during this period. To the southeast of the
low, a broad warm sector will set up from the ArkLaMiss and extend
into the southern half of the Mid-South. Dewpoint temperatures
will climb to near 60 degrees for areas along and south of I-40,
yielding up to 500 J/kg of SBCAPE. The main forcing factor will be
significant wind speed and directional shear. An 90 knot mid-
level jet will impede on the region overnight, increasing to 110
knots by tomorrow morning. The damaging wind threat appears to be
the main threat as scattered storms mix down strong winds, but a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
Perhaps the most widespread impact will be strong gradient winds
and gusts overnight tonight through Friday night. Due to saturated
grounds and this being our second strong wind event this week,
impacts look to be a bit higher this go around. Several downed
trees and scattered power outages look possible and this wording
has been added to the current wind advisory. As with the last
forecast package, deep thought and collaboration was given to a
high wind warning, but confidence remained less than 50 percent to
justify a warning upgrade.
We will see a small break from the active weather Saturday morning
and afternoon, before an arctic cold front pushes into the region
Saturday night. Temperatures will abruptly fall into the teens by
Sunday morning. A shortwave is progged to traverse quickly from
the Four Corners region to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
Models continue to advertise a 700mb moisture axis developing over
the region coincident with a 250mb jet streak Sunday afternoon.
Model soundings show a fully saturated column from the dendritic
zone down to the surface across much of the region. Moderate lift
and decent moisture will result in moderate to heavy snow showers
across the region Sunday night into at least Monday morning.
Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to hold onto
a decent amount of QPF over north Mississippi Monday morning and
afternoon. As a result, the heaviest axis of snow appears to have
shifted south slightly. Still too early to make accurate snowfall
predictions, but the area of highest impact appears to have
shifted south to possibly the I-40 corridor. Still several days to
hammer down the details, so we will continue with a probabilistic
messaging platform.
The main story Monday night into Wednesday will be prolific wind
chill temperatures. Both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will see
wind chills in negative territory with only single digit in the
afternoon hours. Possibly the biggest impact will be the length of
time many locations will spend below the 32F mark. The current
forecast places Memphis is a window of below freezing temperatures
for at least 96 hours. Folks need to be preparing now for a period
of freezing temperatures, potential power outages, and bitter
cold.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
Conditions will gradually deteriorate overnight ahead of a deep,
occluded low pressure system. A few scattered showers may skirt
across the airspace over the next couple hours, but the better
areal coverage warranting VCSH should pick up after 03Z tonight.
CAMs are in fairly good agreement of widespread -SHRA with VCTS
beginning from west to east shortly after midnight tonight as the
system makes its grand entrance. This prevailing precip also
coincides with CIGs lowering to IFR. Expect intermittent periods
of reduced visibilities with brief downpours through the early
morning hours as well. The heaviest convection should clear out
by mid morning Friday. A post-frontal MVFR stratus deck will
likely linger through most of the afternoon at all sites before
clearing up after sunset.
The gradient wind field ahead of and behind this system is quite
impressive. The pressure gradient will tighten up very quickly
tonight with its initial approach, increasing southerly surface
winds to 15-20 kt with higher gusts in addition to 45-50 kt
southerly LLWS. In the early Friday morning hours, the occluded
surface low should be right over the airspace, further
strengthening surface winds to 20-25 kt sustained with gusts up to
35 kts. Wind directions should shift to the southwest after
sunrise and eventually west by Friday evening. As the system
finally pulls away in the early afternoon hours, the pressure
gradient should slacken a bit, but not much. Expect westerly winds
subsiding back down to 15-25 kts with higher gusts through the
end of the TAF period.
CAD
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 3 AM Friday to midnight CST Friday night for
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Wind Advisory from 3 AM Friday to midnight CST Friday night for
MOZ113-115.
MS...Wind Advisory from 3 AM Friday to midnight CST Friday night for
MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Wind Advisory from 3 AM Friday to midnight CST Friday night for
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CAD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
705 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Light snow showers spread across the western UP this evening
into tonight, with totals generally below an inch.
-A strong winter storm will lift out of the Southern Plains Friday,
then roll through the Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday. This
system will bring moderate-to-heavy snow to our forecast area and
this starts in the morning for the southern UP.
-This strong system will produce storm force winds up to 55 knots
and heavy freezing spray on Lake Superior this weekend.
-Strong winds in combination with falling snow will reduce
visibilities and cause some drifting snow, creating hazardous travel
conditions.
-A cold airmass will build into the Upper Great Lakes this weekend
and early next week. During this period, widespread below zero
overnight lows are likely and very cold wind chills will be
possible, as well as periods of lake effect snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 312 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024
Water vapor imagery shows a departing shortwave through the Lower
Peninsula, and another weak wave moving into western Lake Superior.
Meanwhile, light NE flow off of Superior, with 850mb temperatures
around -8 to -12C is keeping in a blanket of lake clouds across the
north-central and eastern UP with more breaks of sunshine to the
south.
The aforementioned shortwave to our west is already touching off
snow showers in the Arrowhead of MN and western Lake Superior.
Chances for snow showers spread into the western UP this evening,
continuing overnight. Snow totals should be quite light, with around
a 20-50% chance of QPF in excess of 0.05in by 12Z Friday. SLRs
aren`t terribly high with just a brief period tonight of saturation
through the DGZ. Would expect snow totals generally below an inch.
Expect otherwise cloudy skies with lows in the teens. As a strong
storm system begins to track out of MO and into southern IL by the
morning, some associated light snow may begin to spread into the
southern UP around sunrise.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 412 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024
A negatively tilted 500mb trough will lift into the Upper Great
Lakes Basin on Friday. This will support an approximately 975mb
surface low (NAEFS climo minimum!) passing in the vicinity of the
Michigan Lower Peninsula, and this low track will have large
ramifications on the snowfall forecast and to a lesser extent the
wind forecast going forward. Currently there are two clusters of
tracks: much of the high resolution guidance and about half of the
Euro ensemble shows a low track ascending along the Lower Michigan
shores of Lake Michigan. The 09Z RAP has a particularly interesting
outlier track that keeps the low within Lake Michigan through
Saturday morning down to 965mb with a signature that almost
resembles an East Coast Nor`easter, except the East Coast is the
eastern coast of Wisconsin. The other cluster features the NAM
suite, the GEFS, Canadian ensemble, and the other half of the Euro
ensemble, which shows the low track passing through Indiana and
towards the Michigan Thumb, which would keep synoptic impacts
further east. QPF will be the primary factor impacted by the low
track, though the GEFS and Euro ensembles have converged somewhat
the last 24 hours, with the Canadian ensemble being broadly more
dry. Gulf moisture transport ahead should be sufficient for higher
QPF as the NAEFS IVT is in the 90th percentile of climo leading into
the UP. Snow ratios will be somewhat tricky, as soundings indicate
that while about 5 kft of the precipitating layer is in the DGZ, the
surface to 5-7 kft layer will be warmer than the DGZ to start, with
a few hours of the full precipitating layer in the DGZ, followed by
much of the column being cooler than the DGZ as the cooler air
behind the system infiltrates. One bigger factor to drive down the
snow ratios will be the high winds leading to dendrite fracturing
and more efficient packing. Despite this, NBM snow ratios are in the
18:1 to 20:1 range, so this forecast package will reflect slightly
below that, more along the lines of 15:1 to 17:1. With temperatures
aloft falling with time and strong cyclonic surface layer flow,
lake enhancement will be occurring and will eventually become
pure lake effect, starting out of the NE Friday, N Saturday, NW
early Sunday, then almost W by Monday. Especially with the NE
and N bands, there will be upslope enhancement in the Marquette
and Baraga highlands. Putting all the pieces together, this
forecast will reflect Winter Storm Warning criteria snowfall at
50% likelihood or better for the entire Upper Michigan region,
with the highest amounts expected in the terrain of Marquette
County, where the 50th percentile of snow exceeds 30 inches
between Negaunee and Big Bay, though the gradient is sharp as
Baraga, Michigamme, and the city of Marquette will be more
around 12 inches. Secondary maxima around 16 inches could be
observed in Menominee, especially if the synoptic precip remains
close, and from Ironwood to Copper Harbor, where some terrain
enhancement of lake effect snow could be observed late in the
event.
Beyond snowfall, additional impacts will be observed with the wind.
The 970s mb low pressure will contrast with a low 1040s mb high
pressure over Montana, drive a strong pressure gradient. A 850mb jet
of around 55kt mixing down will cause storm force wind gusts over
Lake Superior and the immediate shorelines and 30-45 mph gusts over
land where friction is higher. This will lead to a reduction in
visibility, with 12Z HREF visibilities giving 40-60% chances of
visibility falling to 1/4 mile or below throughout the event.
Blizzard conditions are possible (~40%) along Lake Superior and a
slight chance (~20%) elsewhere. Whether it legally counts as a
blizzard or not, blowing and drifting snow will create hazardous
travel conditions through much of the weekend.
Impactful weather continues beyond the low pressure`s departure on
Sunday. By then, a much cooler air mass will settle over the CONUS.
NBM high temperatures fall to the single digits for the western
third of the UP by Sunday and west half by Monday. Low temps will
fall below 0 for all but the coastlines for the beginning of the
week. With lingering gusty conditions, the interior west will have
up to a 40% chance of wind chills falling to -25 Monday and Tuesday
mornings. Additionally, with temperatures aloft falling to -20C,
lake effect snow showers will continue, primarily out of the W and
WNW. These will be tempered somewhat by broadly anticyclonic flow as
surface high pressure is expected to be over central North America,
but ensembles differ on the location of the surface features. The
850mb median and 10th percentile remains at lake effect thresholds
throughout the forecast period, though the 90th percentile does show
some relief next weekend. Per the EFI, surface temperatures will be
anomalous through at least the midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024
Expect mainly MVFR conditions to prevail at all terminals until
steady snow moves in and drops conditions to IFR and possibly
LIFR late Friday morning into the afternoon in association with
a strong storm system tracking into the Great Lakes. Northeast
winds will also become gusty to 25-30 knots Friday afternoon
with the incoming storm system which will contribute to blowing
snow concerns.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 412 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024
Main focus this forecast cycle will be on winds ramping up on the
north side of a strengthening low pressure center forecast to track
from Oklahoma through Lower Michigan through Saturday time frame.
15z RAP has pressure gradient between the two systems with the high
at 1042mb at 06z Sat over MT while having a 970 mb low over Lake
Michigan which is an impressive 72 mb pressure difference.
Confidence in storm force gusts is high (70+%) over Lake Superior.
Hurricane force winds are unlikely, but cannot be entirely ruled out
(5% chance). Winds will quickly increase on Fri and look to stay
gale force through at least Sunday. With the strong winds, heavy
freezing spray will again be possible Friday night into Saturday as
colder air moves in and this looks to continue through Monday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday for
MIZ001>007-084-085.
Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
for MIZ005-006.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Friday to 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ Saturday for MIZ009>014.
Lake Superior...
Storm Warning from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday to 7 PM EST /6
PM CST/ Saturday for LSZ162-240>251-263>267.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday
to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Saturday for LSZ162-240>251-
263>267.
Lake Michigan...
Gale Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday for LMZ221-
248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...GS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
955 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong winter storm will bring widespread heavy snow to the
region tonight into tomorrow. Areas of blowing snow could
result in near blizzard conditions at times. Ground blizzard
conditions could still exist Friday night and Saturday in open
areas.
- Very dangerous wind chills will impact the entire region
beginning tonight and lingering through early next week. Wind
chill values could eventually get to 35 to 45 below zero
Sunday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
The winter storm remains on track, despite a bit of drier air
keeping the Lincoln and Omaha greater metro areas from seeing
this early snowfall. It`s still going to happen.
The latest runs of the HRRR have shown good run-to-run
continuity in the warm air advection wing across southeast
Nebraska/northwest Missouri and that will trend north with
moderate to heavy snowfall reaching the Lincoln/Omaha metro
areas over the next couple of hours. Another band has
maintained itself in a line from near Columbus to Scribner to
Onawa, IA. This band has been reported to drop around 4.0"
through 9pm at Columbus and this is expected to continue through
the next several hours as well with some shifting in area.
Still looking at totals from 6-10" in these heavier bands with
some locally heavy higher amounts. Will be incredibly difficult
to measure with the amount of blowing and drifting accompanying
the snowfall. Drifts will be very large. Travel will become
extremely difficult if not impossible as we progress through
this storm.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
Overall, the forecast remains on track for another strong winter
storm to impact the region tonight through Friday. This will be
the second winter storm with heavy snow this week. Changes with
this forecast from the previous package include a slight shift
upwards in our snowfall ranges by about an inch.
We are seeing snow develop already in northeast NE this
afternoon, north of a line from Albion to Wayne, with visibility
down to 1 mile at both Oneill and Yankton. We should see snow
start to fill in across eastern NE through 6 pm, and southwest
Iowa by 6-8 pm. The snow may come in waves when it begins and
then finally fills in becoming moderate to heavy by 9pm-12am,
which then continues overnight and into Friday morning.
Northerly winds overnight range 15 to 30 mph. With the colder
temperatures, we`re expecting higher snowfall ratios closer to
15 to 18 to 1, so the snow won`t be as heavy and wet as it was
with this past system last Monday, and will blow around a lot
easier too. The snow does linger into Friday morning, with the
accumulating snow really tapering off Friday afternoon. With
snow and blowing snow comes colder temperatures, and wind chill
values are as cold as 15 to 20 below zero across eastern NE as
well tonight and Friday morning, thus the existing winter storm
warning and wind chill advisory will continue tonight and
Friday. We feel that while near blizzard conditions are possible
overnight and Friday especially in open areas, it might be hard
to get the strict definition of 35 mph wind gusts and 1/4 mile
visibility, but travel will still be extremely difficult
especially in open areas on east/west roads with the blowing
snow.
Snowfall amounts are up about an inch from the previous forecast
package, now in the 4-10 inch range. With the higher snow
ratios, it will certainly be easier to let the fluffy snow pile
up, but also very hard to accurately measure. The snow ends in
southeast Nebraska soonest Friday morning, so amounts are the
lowest in that area in the 4-7" range.
There is some concern for ground blizzard conditions developing
Friday night into Saturday with blowing snow. We won`t see much
additional falling snow during this time, but wind gusts could
reach 45 to 50 mph north of I80, and that could create whiteout
conditions from the snow that`s already fallen, assuming there
won`t be a strong crust on the snow pack from any melting. It`s
not out of the question that we might eventually need to issue a
blizzard warning (for blowing snow and not falling snow) late
Friday night into Saturday morning for areas north of I80, but
we`ll assess that as we get closer. Wind chills during the
ground blizzard would be 25 to 35 below zero, so it would
especially dangerous if one would get stranded in that.
And then it gets even colder through early next week. Nighttime
lows 2 to 10 below Friday night and 15 to 20 below Saturday
night and Sunday night. Highs Sunday and Monday probably won`t
get above zero. In fact, we could flirt with a record cold high
maximum temperature of -5 at Norfolk on Sunday. And we could
break cold maximum temperatures at Norfolk and Lincoln on
Monday too. And record mins could be within 2 or 3 degrees
Sunday morning at both Norfolk and Lincoln as well.
Combined with the blustery northwest winds at 20 to 30 mph
through the weekend, wind chill values drop to 25 to 45 below
zero for an extended period. We do have a wind chill warning in
effect for this that extends through Tuesday afternoon. Values
of this magnitude are potentially reaching historic ranges, and
can result in frost bite of exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.
We advise remaining indoors as much as possible this weekend,
and covering all exposed skin when going outside.
By next Wednesday, we do see daytime highs climbing back into
the 20s, but still only teens and lower 20s on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
Conditions will continue to deteriorate as snow continues to
spread across the region and winds steadily increase with the
approach of an arctic airmass. Visibilities will drop 1-2 miles
in general with the snow but there may be periods of 1/2 SM
and will continue to monitor throughout the evening. Snowfall
amounts could range from 5-8" but blowing and drifting will be
significant.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Friday night for
NEZ012-015-018-033-034-044-045-052-053.
Wind Chill Warning from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Tuesday for
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065.
Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for
NEZ045-052-053-066>068-078-088>093.
Wind Chill Warning from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Tuesday for
NEZ045-052-053-066>068-078-088>093.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM CST Friday for NEZ011-016-017-
030>032-042-043-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Friday for NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090-092.
IA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Friday night for
IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
Wind Chill Warning from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Tuesday for
IAZ043.
Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for
IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
Wind Chill Warning from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Tuesday for
IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kern
DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Kern
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
703 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop and move in to
the area after 8 PM. The primary risk is lightning, though a
few storms may contain quarter-sized hail and wind gusts up to
50 mph. Locally heavy rainfall potential and a low flood
threat (5 percent chance) will be confined to areas southeast
of Springfield.
- Rain changing to a wintry mix to all snow on Friday morning.
Watch for rapidly changing road conditions as temperatures
quickly fall below freezing, with an increasing flash freeze
potential. Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Friday from
4 AM to 12 PM.
- Northwest wind gusts up to 50 mph will occur Friday afternoon
and evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for most of the
area from noon until midnight Friday.
- Another chance for accumulating snowfall will arrive late
Sunday into Monday. 70-90% chance for at least minor road
impacts.
- Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills this weekend into
early next week. High confidence in temperatures below zero
with wind chills of -15 to -25 degrees at times on Sunday and
Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
Surface low pressure is currently located across central
Oklahoma into Texas. Ahead of the low, gusty southeasterly
winds are occurring and will continue through the evening hours
with gusts of 30-40mph at times.
A secondary surface warm front is starting to move north into
the area. Behind this front, moisture and warm air in the low-
levels will start to advect into the area. MUCAPE will start to
increase across the area this evening, and with the lift ahead
of the system, scattered showers and storms will start to
develop south of the area in the next hour or two, continuing
to develop and move north into the area during the mid to late
evening hours then into the overnight hours. As the surface low
moves northeast this evening and tonight, a cold front will
move east into and through the area tonight into Friday morning.
Additional scattered showers and storms will develop along and
ahead of the cold front from west to east late this evening into
the overnight hours.
MUCAPE values of 500 to 1200 J/kg are expected across the area
this evening and tonight. There will be a low level inversion,
so any storms that develop will be elevated in nature. There
will be a risk for some strong storms with the main threat being hail
up to the size of pennies, but a few of the strongest storms
may be capable of hail up to the size of quarters as strong
deep layer shear will be over the area. If any line segments
can develop, there also could be a risk for strong to marginally
severe wind. The strong/severe risk will overall be isolated in
nature and the risk low for any given location. There also
could be some localized heavy rainfall this evening into
tonight, especially across south central Missouri, where a
localized minor flooding risk will occur.
A much colder air mass will move into the area late tonight into
Friday morning, with temperatures falling from the middle 30s
through the 20s fairly quickly. This will lead a potential for
flash freezing of any wet roads when the cold air arrives. A
band of light snow is still expected to develop and track across
portions of the area late tonight and Friday morning, ending by
Friday afternoon within the colder air. Gusty west to
northwesterly winds will accompany the colder air on Friday,
with gusts up to 40-50 mph expected.
The forecast is on track and no major changes expected this
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 148 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
Current Weather: Pleasant weather ongoing today as a 500 mb ridge
occurs over the state. Breezy southeast winds are gusting 25 to 30
mph this afternoon. Temperatures have reached the low to mid 50s
with high clouds lingering for the next few hours.
Tonight: The upper level trough will pivot east overnight and into
Friday morning, becoming negatively tilted and lifting into the
region on Friday. The surface low pressure will begin to deepen as
it pushes through Oklahoma before pivoting northeast into the area.
Showers will begin after 6 PM this evening and thunderstorms will
likely occur after midnight. HRRR MUCAPE values of 1100-1300 J/kg
will bring a marginal risk for elevated hail this evening for
southern Missouri. Rainfall amounts of 0.5-1.0 inches in our
southeast counties are expected. HREF LPMM has also shown a signal
for isolated pockets of up to 3 inches of rain for areas east of
West Plains. WPC has highlighted this potential/area in a marginal
risk in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook. This may lead to flash
flooding in southeast Missouri.
Friday Morning: As this system pushes through the area, the strong
cold air advection will rapidly drop temperatures below freezing
Friday morning. This will allow for a quick transition in
precipitation from rain, to freezing rain, to snow from west to east
for the morning commute. Though the transition period will be short,
it will carry a big impact. A flash freeze is looking likely with
moderate travel impacts expected. This is due to rapid freezing of
wet roadways leading to hazardous travel conditions. The only factor
that would limit a flash freeze from occurring is if the gusty
northwesterly winds allow for enough evaporation off of the roadways
to occur, limiting the freeze potential. At this time, we do not
believe the wind will have that effect and travel impacts will
occur. Due to these travel impacts, have issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for most of the area from 4 AM until 12 PM Friday.
As for snow amounts, a band of higher snowfall totals between 1.0-
1.5 inches exists from Mcdonald to Jasper county and westward.
Everywhere else can expect less than an inch. Snow will end west to
east around noon. Flurries may linger through the afternoon on the
backside of the snow band.
Gusty winds on Friday: Pressure gradient tightens as the low begins
to strengthen over central Missouri. Northwest winds will gust up to
50 mph for most of the area for Friday afternoon and will persist
through the evening. Issued a Wind Advisory for Friday for most of
the area from noon until midnight. Gusty winds along with wintry
precipitation, blowing snow, and icy roads will lead to hazardous
travel conditions.
Cold Temperatures Friday: Another concern will be the cold
temperatures behind the frontal passage as temperatures rapidly
decrease Friday morning. Afternoon highs will likely remain below
freezing (20-30 degrees). With the gusty winds and lower
temperatures, wind chills will drop down into the lower single
digits and even into the negatives Friday and Friday night.
Confidence is high for a Wind Chill headline to be issued within the
next couple of forecast packages for the entire weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
Saturday: By Saturday, high pressure begins to settle into the
area featuring a bitterly cold air mass. Expect a cold start to
Saturday morning with breezy northwest winds and wind chills
around 0 to 10 degrees. Clouds clear a bit through Saturday
afternoon with highs in the upper teens (north) to upper 20s
(south). An additional slug of Arctic air filters into the
area. Despite scattered cloud cover Saturday night, overnight
lows fall into the single digits to near zero. Persistent
northwest winds support wind chills around -15 to -20 into
Sunday morning.
Sunday: A shortwave trough digs into the region on Sunday,
supporting sufficient forcing for accumulating snowfall on
Sunday afternoon and evening. With forecast highs in single
digits to teens, no mixed precipitation is expected with this
system. Current guidance highlight the highest chances of
snowfall across southern Missouri into northern Arkansas. This
is the area where the the probabilistic Winter Storm Severity
Index (WSSI) highlights 70-90% chance for at least minor impacts
and 40-60% chance for moderate impacts. The moderate impact
chances are highest along and south of the Highway 60 corridor
at this time. As for potential amounts, NBM 4.2 highlights
probabilities of greater than 1 inch around 60-70%, greater than
2 inches around 40-50%, and greater than 4 inches around
30-40%. It should be noted this is using 10:1 snow liquid
ratios. With much colder temperatures forecast, ratios will
likely be in the 15:1 to 20:1 range (light, fluffy snow). There
is still remaining uncertainties among the ensemble guidance on
the exact placement of higher snowfall amounts based on the
track of the system. Continue to stay updated on the forecast
over next 24 to 72 hours.
Next Week: Bitterly cold temperatures linger into early next
week with daily highs in the single digits to teens. Overnight
lows fall to around 0 degrees on Sunday night, with lows below
zero by Monday night. This will also feature minimum wind chills
as low as -15 to -25. EFI Shift of Tails continues to max out
the extreme cold signal over the central CONUS through early
next week. Moderating temperatures by mid to late next week,
though still remaining 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
Surface low pressure is moving across Oklahoma and will continue
to move northeast towards the area this evening then across the
area tonight. Gusty southeasterly winds will continue this
evening ahead of the low. Warm air advection will also occur
ahead of the low this evening and some scattered showers and
storms will start to develop across portions of the area this
evening. MVFR conditions will develop with the showers and
storms.
Tonight into Friday morning a cold front will move
east across the region. Winds will switch to the west and become
gusty again behind the front. Scattered showers and a few storms
will also occur head of the front.
Behind the front colder air will advect into the area and
temperatures will drop rapidly into the 20s. A band of light
snow will also develop late tonight and move east across the
area Friday morning ending by Friday evening. IFR conditions
will occur with the snow. MVFR and gusty winds will occur Friday
afternoon behind the front.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon CST Friday for
KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon CST Friday for
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>105.
Wind Advisory from noon Friday to midnight CST Friday night
for MOZ055>058-067>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Wise