Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/08/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
716 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow tapers to snow showers this evening before coming
to an end early tonight. After a dry and seasonable day Monday, a
multi-hazard storm is expected to bring strong wind gusts, heavy
rain that may lead to flooding, and high-elevation snow Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday. Drier weather returns Thursday, but
another storm system may impact the region next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
* Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for much of eastern
New York and western New England until 7 PM this evening.
* The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Washington
and Rensselaer Counties until 7 PM this evening
As of 7pm, our coastal low is now off the coast of New England
with water vapor and infrared imagery showing the low still
strengthening with a central pressure down to 987hPa per latest
RAP analysis. Snow showers linger over areas near and along the
Hudson River eastward into western New England but these snow
showers are generally light with only additional coatings
expected through Midnight. The exception is the higher terrain
of the Taconics, southern Greens and Berkshires where upslope
enhancements may lead up to an additional half inch. After
Midnight, most snow showers should end although some flurries
are not ruled out in the western Adirondacks into parts of the
western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie County due to lake effect.
Otherwise, forecast is on track. More details below.
Previous discussion...Center of low pressure associated with
the storm that brought widespread moderate to heavy snow to the
region is currently located just southeast of Nantucket. WV
imagery shows the upper shortwave now negatively tilted and
becoming vertically stacked above the surface low as it tries to
close off aloft. While the heaviest snow has moved off to our
east, there is still plenty of lingering mid-level moisture with
the large-scale upper trough, and with some weak low-level
convergence along an inverted rough extending back into our CWA
from the main surface low, light snow showers should linger into
this evening. Snow showers will likely linger the longest into
early tonight across the west-facing slopes of the southern
Greens and Taconics where westerly upslope flow will may result
in an additional inch or so of accumulation. Will leave all
headlines up until 7 pm when they are scheduled to expire to
capture any additional snowfall.
Snow showers come to an end early tonight as the upper shortwave
closes off and moves off to our east in tandem with the surface
low. Most areas should dry out as heights rise aloft and we get
into better subsidence beneath the left entrance region of the
upper jet. However, skies will remain mostly cloudy tonight
thanks to northwest winds advecting cooler air over the Great
Lakes. With lake temperatures still around +7C in Lake Ontario
and 850 mb temperatures of around -8, there will likely be
enough lake-induced instability for some light lake effect snow
showers as well, which will likely be focused towards the
southwestern Mohawk Valley and perhaps northern Catskills
tonight. An additional coating to perhaps a couple tenths of an
inch of snow is possible for these aforementioned areas.
Elsewhere, it will be breezy with the surface low departing off
to the east with temperatures expected to drop into the 10s to
mid 20s. This will allow any remaining snow or slush to re-
freeze, especially on untreated roadways. So, some slippery
travel conditions could still be possible tonight even after the
snow comes to an end.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday through Monday night will be quiet and mainly dry.
Warming 850 mb temps will put an end to any lake effect snow
showers early tomorrow morning, and we should begin to see
clouds diminish as upper ridging and surface high pressure build
over the region. Temperatures Monday will rise above freezing
outside of the high terrain areas, which will help to melt any
remaining snow/ice on the roads. Low temperature forecast is
tricky Monday night as conditions will initially be very
favorable for radiational cooling with a fresh snowpack, calm
winds, and high pressure overhead. However, increasing mid and
high clouds, especially after midnight, will slow down
temperatures from dropping as much as they otherwise would. So,
undercut NBM temps by a few degrees, but will mention that if
clouds move in late than currently anticipated then temperatures
could be several degrees below the current forecast.
* Main focus of the long term will be a multi-hazard storm that
will impact the region with strong wind gusts, heavy rain,
and high-elevation snow. Winter, Wind, and Flood headlines
will likely be issued over the next 12 to 24 hours in advance
of this system, but we decided to hold off on any headlines
until current WSW expires this evening...
Tuesday starts cold and dry with increasing mid and high clouds.
However, a strong closed upper low will be tracking from the
Ozarks towards the Ohio Valley, in tandem with a surface low
that will deepen to around 980 mb as it tracks into the Great
Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. We will be on the warm side
of the storm, with the system`s cold front expected to track
through our region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Chronologically, the first hazard with this storm is the
potential for a front-end thump of snow. Precipitation will
likely begin as all snow for the high terrain, and there is the
potential that some valley areas could pick up a quick coating
to an inch of snow as precipitation begins Tuesday
afternoon/evening, especially north and east of I-90. High
pressure centered to the northeast, while not in an ideal
position, will still allow for cold air damming that should keep
precipitation as snow for several hours at the onset for the
Adirondacks and portions of the southern Greens. With strong
isentropic lift, warm advection, and low-level frontogenesis,
this may help to dynamically cool the column enough to result in
at least advisory level snows for these areas. A period of a
wintry mix is also possible Tuesday night before precipitation
changes to all rain...
This will be due to a very impressive S/SE low-level jet
pumping warm and moist mid-level air into the region. 850 mb
winds increase to 70-80 kt Tuesday night, with the NAEFS and EPS
showing a corresponding v wind anomaly of +5 to +6 standard
deviations. There is some uncertainty as to how much of this
wind will mix down for valley areas due to a fairly strong
inversion between 2500-3500 ft. Nevertheless, we currently
expect winds to gust as high as 35 to 45 mph in the valleys and
potentially in excess of 55 mph in some of the high terrain
areas. Timing of the strongest winds will be overnight Tuesday
night, with the potential for downed trees/limbs leading to
power outages.
The highest-impact hazard with this storm looks to be heavy rain
that will likely lead to some river and urban/poor drainage
flooding. The anomalous LLJ will advect PWAT values of 0.8"
(northern areas) to 1.2" (southern areas) into the region, which
is 2 to 4 sigma above normal for mid January. Strong diffluent
flow aloft ahead of the cold front combined with the approaching
right entrance region of the upper jet and strong low-level
convergence along the frontal boundary will lead to heavy
rainfall. Highest rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches look to fall
across the eastern Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley, and
southwestern New England. Both the NAEFS and EPS show a maxed
out QPF M-Climate for 6, 12, and 24 hour precipitation amounts
for these aforementioned areas, which is a very strong signal
for exceptionally heavy rain. Please see the hydro section for
more info on the potential flood threat associated with the
heavy rain and potential snow melt.
The system`s cold front will track through the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, with a drying out trend through
the day Wednesday. Wind gusts should diminish behind the front,
although winds will remain breezy. Temperatures will spike into
the upper 40s to low 50s ahead of the front, but daytime highs
should be achieved in the morning with temperatures falling
through the afternoon behind the front. Some lake effect snow
showers are also expected behind the front as cooler air moves
over the Great Lakes.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The active and progressive pattern in place for much of the last
week is expected to continue through the long-term period. Wednesday
night through Thursday night look to feature a break in the stormy
pattern as brief upper ridging passes over the region allowing many
a chance to dry out, with the exception of persistent lake-effect
snow showers reaching into the southwestern Adirondacks and western
Mohawk Valley. Temperatures are expected to run slightly above
normal, with highs Thursday in the upper 20s to low 40s across the
region and Wednesday/Thursday night lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.
Another potent storm may develop late in the week and into the
holiday weekend as a southern stream shortwave ejects northeastward
about the base of a broad upper trough, supporting cyclogenesis as a
deepening low tracks from the Mississippi Valley northeastward
toward the Great Lakes. Numerical guidance is in fairly good
agreement on this general pattern even at this extended lead time,
with precise details of the surface low still to be refined in the
coming days. Regardless, widespread chances for rain and snow look
to spread from southwest to northeast across the region some time
Friday into Saturday. Similar temperatures from the midweek period
look to continue into Friday and Saturday, with cold advection
behind the surface cold front trending temperatures much cooler
Saturday night through the holiday weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The final snow showers are tracking eastward across GFL, ALB,
and PSF this evening with snow expected to end by 01 - 04 UTC
from west to east. MVFR ceilings should linger a few hours but
should improve to VFR by 03 - 06 UTC for ALB and GFL as snow
ends but PSF looks to hold onto MVFR ceilings until closer 12
UTC. VFR conditions are then expected for all TAF sites the rest
of the TAF period.
Light winds this evening shift out of the west as the snow ends
and increase to 5-9kts with PSF a bit stronger sustained 8 -
12kts with gusts up to 20kts. On Monday, northwesterly winds
will be around 4 to 8 kts for POU, ALB and GFL with PSF
remaining a bit breezy sustained 6 - 10kts.
Outlook...
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA...SN.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Very Windy With Gusts To 44 kts. Definite RA...SN.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...RA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
sites
Widespread moderate to locally heavy rain is expected Tuesday night
through Wednesday as moisture rich disturbance impacts the
Northeast. Antecedent conditions are wet given recent heavy
rainfall events in December. With a snowpack on the ground, the
combination of heavy rain and some snow melt may result in both
river and localized urban/poor drainage flooding. Confidence
remains high that we will likely see hydro issues with this
event. The Weather Prediction Center continues to place much of
eastern NY and western New England in its marginal and slight
risk in its Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. In addition, the
Northeast River Forecast Center has outlined the eastern
Catskill, mid- Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut for
Significant River Flood Possible in their Significant Flood
Outlook for this period as well.
While heavy rain looks likely, there are uncertainties regarding
how much snow melt can take place as the snow pack needs to
ripen before it can melt. While temperatures warm into the 50s
Wednesday, the warm-up will be short lived with temperatures
dropping back into the 30s Wednesday night behind the cold
front. Even still, with unusually warm dew points and strong
wind gusts, there will likely be at least some snow melt
contributing to runoff. The exact amount of precipitation and
snow melt will ultimately determine the spatial coverage and
magnitude of any hydro issues. Those prone to river flooding
should maintain a close eye on the forecast over the coming
days.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Main/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Speciale
HYDROLOGY...Main/Picard/Speciale
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
849 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A brief period of blizzard conditions are possible across the
Palmer Divide and eastward over the Palmer Ridge late tonight
through early Monday afternoon. The Monday morning commute may
see severe impacts although uncertainty exists.
- A High Wind Warning for southern Lincoln county Monday. Then potential
for strong winds in the mountains and foothills Tuesday into
Tuesday night.
- Periods of snow in the mountains Wednesday through Friday. Chance
of snow and colder across the plains on Thursday.
- An arctic front may affect the area late Friday into Saturday
bringing much colder temperatures along with another chance of
snow. Overall confidence in timing of this front is still low at
this time.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2024
Timing wise no adjustments are planned at this time. The main
adjustment involved increasing the pops to better match the
current highlights we have in effect, primarily zones 36, 49>41,
45 and 46. The latest HRRR run backed off slightly on the northern
extent of the snow impacting areas north of Interstate 70. It`s
only one run, so best course of action would be to stand pat at
this point. Latest radar images show the developing snow over the
southern foothills and Palmer Divide, and the advisory for those
areas will go into effect shortly at 9 pm. Only other zone to
watch may be zone 49, but due to the trend of the last HRRR I have
no plans to upgrade that to a winter weather advisory (yet) this
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2024
Weak echos are appearing across the radar this afternoon. A few
METARs indicate light snow beginning near Rabbit Ears Pass. This
pattern will continue spreading to most of our region excluding the
Wyoming/Colorado border as an upper level trough stags southeast.
Snow ratios will hover between 14:1 to 16:1. Favorable conditions
such as strong northerly upslope flow and QPF values between 0.15-
.20 will lead to the highest snowfall amounts for Palmer Divide and
southern foothills. A Winter Storm Warning covers portions of
Elbert, Douglas, and Lincoln counties starting tonight through
Monday. There is strong model agreement for high winds across
southern Lincoln county but with less total snow amounts, we`ve
decided to keep wind headlines versus winter with a High Wind
Warning starting Monday morning through Monday evening. This
corridor will likely be monitored for changes tonight depending on
if significant impacts lead to a blizzard warning instead. Either
way, we`re confident wind gusts up to 50-60 mph could occur as
early as noon Monday due to increasing vort max as the cyclone
exits.
Additionally, those traveling along Monday morning commute should
prepare for areas of blowing snow due to wind gusts up to 45 mph
mainly along the I-25 corridor across the Palmer Divide and
adjacent areas of Lincoln county. Parts of the Denver metro were
added to a Winter Weather Advisory for the morning commute of
a short period of blowing snow conditions and snowfall totals
between 1-3 inches.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2024
The storm system will move well east of the area Mon night into Tue
with the flow aloft becoming northwest. Cross-sections show limited
moisture embedded in the flow with stable lapse rates. Thus any
orographic snow that occurs in the mtns will be very light. There
is some potential for strong winds in the mtns and foothills late
Mon night into Tue morning as a mtn wave develops and cross barrier
flow increases to 45-50 kts. Across the plains it will be dry with
highs mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s. However, where fresh
snow cover exists readings may only be in the lower 30s.
For Tue night into Wed, the flow aloft will become more WNW. There
is some potential for strong winds to redevelop Tue evening in the
mtns and foothills as cross-barrier flow increases although the mtn
wave isn`t as well developed. Cross-sections show moisture will
increase in the mtns overnight with lapse rates becoming more
favorable. Thus should see a round of orographic snow overnight into
Wed. Across the plains it will remain dry but gusty winds will
occur in some areas. Highs will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Looking ahead to Thu, an upper level disturbance will move across
the area. Cross-sections show decent moisture in the mtns with
steep lapse rates so expect another period of snowfall. At lower
elevations, a cold front will move into nern CO during the day
which may enhance upslope flow late in the day into Thu night. As
the disturbance moves across this could lead to a better chc of
snow at lower elevations. Highs on Thu will drop into the 20`s
over nern CO.
For Fri, rather stg WNW flow aloft will remain over the area. Models
have varying amounts of moisture embedded in the flow although lapse
rates remain unstable. Thus will likely see periods of orographic
snow in the mtns. At lower elevations, will be dealing with a
shallow cold airmass over the plains. The ECMWF wants to erode this
airmass while the GFS does not. As a result, the ECMWF highs are
roughly 10 to 15 degrees warmer than the GFS. This far out really
hard to say which solution is best.
Moving ahead to Fri night into Sat, the latest ECMWF and GFS have a
second surge of colder air moving across nern CO. In addition, they
both show quite a bit of moisture embedded in the flow which is
aligned with an upper level jet. Thus this could lead to a better
chc of jet enhanced snowfall from the mtns across the plains.
Meanwhile, highs on Sat may not get out of the teens across the
plains with this second shot of colder air.
Looking ahead to late in the weekend, confidence remains low as to
whether another shot of reinforcing cold air affects the area or
not. The GFS does not show a reinforcing shot of cold air while the
ECMWF does. This is due to the ECMWF having a much stronger upper
level trough affecting the area while the GFS moves it off to the
east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 454 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2024
Ceilings 040-060 will develop after 02z as -shsn starts to
develop. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility restrictions will occur
between 06-08z, then mainly IFR after 08-16z due to -shsn/blsn,
then back to MVFR 16z-18z. Ceilings will likely continue in the
040-060 range after 18z.
Strong northerly winds will develop overnight and continue through
early Monday afternoon, strongest from 12-20z Monday with gusts
30-40 kts expected. The stronger gusts will gradually taper off
after 00z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST Monday for COZ036.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM MST Monday
for COZ039-040-045.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 2 PM MST Monday
for COZ041-046.
High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Monday for COZ047.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cooper
SHORT TERM...AD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Cooper
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
900 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A band of heavy snow is expected to develop around midnight in
the Missouri Valley and spread north toward I-90 overnight.
Snowfall of 3-7" can be expected with band by 10 AM Monday
Gregory SD to Marshall MN. Lesser amounts of snow are expected
over northwestern Iowa.
- Snow may briefly decrease in intensity late Monday morning
before redeveloping during the afternoon. An additional 3-6
inches of snow is expected east of a line from Lake Andes to
Brookings.
- While the main impact from this storm will be heavy snow
accumulations, gusty northwest winds on Monday night and
Tuesday will cause drifting snow and patchy blowing snow,
leading to reduced visibility. Travel may still be difficult
Tuesday due to lingering 25 to 35 mph gusts.
- Another low to moderate chance for light snow comes with several
weak disturbances Wednesday through Friday.
- Bitterly cold air spreads in Friday through next weekend. High
confidence in periods of wind chills of 20 to 35 below zero at
times Friday into Sunday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
Virga has already developed along the 850 mb front across
northeastern Nebraska. We are seeing ceilings slow fall as the
atmosphere begins to saturated - from over 12 kft near KYKN to
around 5 kft near Ord NE. As an short wave moves north late
this evening, the frontal circulation is expected to intensify
near the SD/NE border with snow develop by midnight in this
area. GFS, RAP and NAM all show the an elevated weakly unstable
layer above 800 mb that develops as this front move slowly
northward toward I-90. Heavy snowfall is likely to develop after
midnight with snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour possible as this
band slowly move northward. These snowfall rates can quickly
create very hazardous travel as roads become snowcovered. This
band will slowly weaken during the late morning as it moves
north of Hwy 14 and the first wave moves east resulting in the
frontal circulation weakening.
With the expected strength of this first band of snow, have
raised snowfall totals from 06Z-18Z with generally 4-8" expected
by noon Monday from Lake Andes to Sioux Falls to Marshall MN.
The heaviest snowfall with this first band will look to be in
the Sioux Falls area which is likely to make the morning
commute extremely hazardous.
No changes were made after 18Z but there remains uncertainty on
the exactly location of the second area of snow expected to
develop. Most areas east of a line from Lake Andes to Brookings
can expected an additional 3-6" of snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
TONIGHT: A strong winter storm builds through the Central and
Southern Plains tonight through early Tuesday. Aloft, a longwave
deepening upper trough slides through the Rockies tonight,
aided by a 150 kt upper level jet streak digging into the
Pacific Northwest. While the corresponding sfc low idles/stacks
in northeast New Mexico, strong warm air advection develops
ahead of the sfc troughing extended northward over the western
Dakotas. This combined with increasing cloud cover will keep
temperatures nearly steady in the mid teens to upper 20s early
this evening.
From 9pm to 12am, deterministic guidance is in good agreement in a
west to east oriented band of snow lifting north into near the U.S.
Hwy 20 corridor. Strong 850-750mb frontogenetical forcing for ascent
and moderate mid level lapse rates in the vicinity of the band will
continue a slow northward progression overnight. This initial heavy
band of snow will bring a swath of 3 to 6 inches of snow before
sunrise Monday morning. At this point, that heaviest band looks to
set the heaviest snow somewhere near Wagner-Yankton northeastward
toward Mitchell-Sioux Falls and Pipestone.
MONDAY: There will certainly be impacts to the Monday morning
commute given the expected overnight snow totals. 12z HREF model
guidance supports pockets of very heavy 1+ inch/hour rates of
snowfall in the corridor from Mitchell to Sioux Falls to Worthington
and northward toward Madison, Pipestone, and Marshall from 4 AM to 8
AM. These rates suggest snow removal may be difficult to keep up
with during the morning commute. Further southeast, snow amounts may
be lesser to start with even a break possible in the early morning
hours.
Periods of lighter to moderate snow will continue to be widespread
across the region (though with lesser snowfall rates) through the
day Monday and Monday night. Forcing becomes broader and more
synoptically driven as the corresponding sfc low ejects into the
Oklahoma Panhandle, more PVA driven in the vicinity of the inverted
sfc trough and approaching mid level wave/trough. As this system
pivots eastward, northwest Iowa receives the bulk of its snowfall
Monday afternoon and evening with periods of weak instability
leading to locally very heavy rates of 1+ inches/hour as well.
12z and early 18z model guidance continue to trend higher with
snowfall amounts, even giving low (<20%) chances of isolated 12+
inches of snow totals for counties from Yankton/Bon Homme to
Minnehaha to Lyon MN.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: East winds on Monday will shift north in the
afternoon and evening as the sfc trough meanders eastward. North
gradient winds will strengthen heading into the evening. Tough to
say whether the encroaching low level jet will allow gusts to
persist overnight (which would further degrade travel conditions),
but even occasional 25 to 35 mph gusts are possible. Even occasional
gusts would cause at least drifting snow and patchy blowing snow (if
not more widespread) west of the James River Valley, reducing
visibility.
Snow should be ending west of the I-29 corridor by the morning
commute Tuesday and across the region by mid day. Unfortunately
gusty winds will linger through the daylight hours Tuesday, making
travel difficult even though snow has ended. Tuesday will be notably
colder as well. Though temperatures will peak in the teens and 20s,
the brisk north wind will result in wind chills below zero
throughout the day.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Tuesday night is generally quiet with an Arctic sfc
high slides through and allows winds to weaken. Unfortunately this
also allows for temperatures to drop into the single digits, perhaps
even falling below zero by early Wednesday.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A clipper system sliding through North
Dakota and northern Minnesota brings another moderate (30-50%)
chance of light snow Wednesday, mainly north of the I-90 corridor.
The bigger impact will be the trailing push of cold air. By
Thursday, high temperatures will only be in the single digits to
teens above zero
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: While low chances for snow cannot be ruled
out through the weekend, the biggest impact will be dangerously cold
conditions starting Friday and continuing through next weekend.
During this period, a strong upper trough (at the max of the NAEFS
climatology for this time of year) digs deep into the Central U.S.
High temperatures are favored to be in the single digits with
nighttime/early morning low temperatures in the teens below
zero.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
Aviation conditions will rapidly deteriorate after midnight and
remain IFR or LIFR through Monday afternoon.
A band of snow is expected to develop near the Missouri River by
06Z and move toward I-90 by 09Z. Visibility will drop to 1/2
mile or even 1/4 mile within the band of snow. The heavy snow
is expected significantly impact KFSD from 09Z-13Z. There is
more uncertainty if this band will impact KSUX but at least IFR
conditions are expected for a period overnight. This band of
snow is expected to remain east of KHON so MVFR conditions are
expected most of the night until ceilings lower below 1000 ft.
There will be a brief lull in snowfall during the morning hours.
We are still expecting visibilities to remain below 3SM with
light snow but there could be a brief period above 3SM during
the late morning. However, ceilings will remain below 1000 ft so
IFR conditions are expected to continue. Snow will pick up in
the afternoon - first at KSUX and then at KFSD. Visibilities
below 1 miles are expected once again at both locations with the
potential 1/2 mile or lower visibility at KSUX.
Winds will generally be out of the east through tomorrow
afternoon with gusts as at or above 20 kts by the afternoon.
Winds will be shifting to the north at KHON after 21Z. This wind
shift will be approaching KFSD and KSUX by 00Z on Tuesday.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday
for SDZ040-050-055-056-059>071.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday
for SDZ038-039-052>054-057-058.
MN...Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday
for MNZ071-072-080-089-097-098.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday
for MNZ081-090.
IA...Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday
for IAZ001-002-012-013-020>022-031-032.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday
for IAZ003-014.
NE...Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday
for NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schumacher
DISCUSSION...BP
AVIATION...Schumacher
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1034 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Attention turns to a significant, multi-faceted storm system
forecast to cross the region Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Strong winds and heavy precipitation in the form of both rain
and snow are likely, although there still remains uncertainty
with how these precipitation types will parse out in time and
space. Coastal flooding impacts are also possible should timing
align with the Wednesday morning high tide cycle. Quiet weather
returns to close out the work week. Another strong storm system
will cross the region this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM Update...Lingering bands of light snow will continue to
wane early overnight with most locations dry in a couple hours.
Otherwise, winds will continue to diminish overnight.
Previously...
7 PM Update...Have gone ahead and allowed all winter weather
headlines to expire. Some lingering light snow will continue for
the next couple of hours but by in large the heaviest stuff is
over as the strongest and most concentrated area of forcing has
moved off to the east. Winds will gradually diminish as well.
Previously...
Surface low pressure (992 mb) near buoy 44008 off Nantucket
Island at 18Z will continue to drift east this evening. The latest
HRRR suggests the precipitation will continue until that time before
exiting off the coastline and into the Gulf of Maine.
In the meantime, snow, locally heavy at times will continue in the
warning area. Snowfall totals will continue to vary significantly
from location to location due to the presence of mesoscale snowbands
embedded in the precipitation. All headlines will remain in place
until approximately 00Z. A nearly stationary snowband will remain in
place over southernmost Oxford County and points east towards
Kennebec county through 21Z with other areas of heavy snow
shifting towards the coastline.
The area of low pressure exiting out to sea tonight never reaches
the latitude of our forecast area. Therefore, downslope winds will
be minimized so scattered snow showers or flurries may continue into
tonight. A few snow showers may occur in the northern mountains as
well.
Overnight lows will drop into the teens in most areas as winds relax
later tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds into the region on Monday. This will allow for
dry conditions and mostly sunny skies over southern portions of the
forecast area with mostly cloudy skies to the north. A surface high
pressure system will crest over the region from Canada. Radiational
cooling with mainly clear skies, light winds and a fresh snowpack
will drop temperatures into the single numbers for lows to the teens
along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview: Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will remain
over New England on Tuesday, allowing for one more day of tranquil
weather conditions and seasonably cool temperatures. This will then
be followed by a storm system that will bring multiple impacts to
the region Tuesday night into Wednesday including heavy
precipitation in the form of rain and mountain snow, strong to
potentially damaging winds (especially along the coast), and coastal
flooding. Conditions look to improve Wednesday night as high
pressure returns through the end of the week. Another storm system
will likely impact the region sometime next weekend as the NAO
remains in a negative phase.
Impacts: A potent storm system will impact the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday with multiple hazards including heavy precipitation
in the form of rain and snow which may result in flooding,
strong to locally damaging winds, and minor to moderate coastal
flooding.
Forecast Details: Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will
remain over New England on Tuesday, allowing for one more day of
tranquil weather conditions and near seasonable temperatures. This
will be ahead of a vigorous negatively tilted upper level
trough that will be moving eastward over the Mid-West with a
deepening sfc low moving northeastward over the Mississippi
River Valley. This trough of low pressure will cross the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a new sfc low develops and
crosses near or just offshore of the local region. This system
will bring multiple hazards including heavy precipitation in the
form of rain and snow, strong to locally damaging winds, minor
to moderate coastal flooding. For more information please see
the sections below.
Latest deterministic and ensemble based guidance continues to
indicate that precipitation will overspread the area from southwest
to northeast on Tuesday night with temperature profiles initially
supporting mostly snow through the first half of the night, except
perhaps in extreme southern NH. South-southeasterly winds will
increase through the night, resulting in a non-diurnal temperature
trend as WAA overtakes the region. This will result in an advancing
rain/snow line overnight and into Wednesday morning from south to
north with some mixed wintry precipitation possible during this
transition. Snowfall amounts look to range from a slushy 1-2"
across southern NH and along the coast to perhaps 3-7" further
inland and especially across the foothills. Across the far north
and especially the mountains snow will likely remain the
predominant ptype through perhaps mid-day Wednesday, allowing
for higher totals of 6-12+". These amounts are highly subject
to change as new guidance becomes available. The rain and
snowfall rates will also increase overnight and into Wednesday
as deep southerly flow allows PWATs to increase to +3 standard
deviations above normal. Rainfall amounts of 1-2" are likely
south of the mountains with localized higher amounts possible.
This combined with snow melt, frozen ground, and already wet
soils will result in an increased threat for both areal flooding
as well as river/stream flooding. For more information please
see the hydrology section below.
Strong to locally damaging winds are also possible with this system,
especially along the coast. Latest forecast guidance is overall
similar to 24-hrs ago with bringing 40-60 mph winds to the region
Tuesday night and especially on Wednesday, highest along the coast.
The main question mark for how strong winds will be across the
interior is boundary layer temperatures and the location of the LLJ.
The ECMWF and the 12Z NAM are a little cooler than some other
guidance, owing to development of the new sfc low and should this
verify then the threat for strong winds would be lower away from the
coast. Downsloping winds are also likely across the north. Power
outages are possible.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding is also possible as long
fetch southeasterly winds allows for increased wave runup along
with between 2.5-3.5 ft of storm surge. For more information
please see the coastal flooding section below.
Despite all of the potential hazards, this system does look to
be rather transient with conditions improving Wednesday evening
and Wednesday night as low pressure departs. Mainly dry weather
and cool temperatures look to return through Friday as high
pressure builds in. Another system looks to arrive sometime next
weekend with current indications indicating that this will be
another mixed wintry precipitation event, although significant
uncertainty exists.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...LIFR conditions this evening improve to
MVFR overnight outside the mountains. VFR conditions expected
Monday and Monday night with some low cloudiness and MVFR
conditions continuing in the mountains.
Long Term...VFR conditions during the day on Tuesday.
Conditions will deteriorate to IFR/LIFR on Tuesday night and
persist through much of Wednesday as widespread RASN overspreads
the region before turning to mostly RA by Wednesday morning.
South- southeasterly winds may approach 45 kts, especially along
the coast. LLWS is also likely as a strong LLJ skirts the
region. Conditions will improve Wednesday night with decreasing
winds as they become west- northwesterly. Mainly VFR conditions
are then expected Thursday through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas gradually subside through Monday
and Monday night.
Long Term...South-southeasterly winds will increase to around
storm force Tuesday night into Wednesday as seas across the
outer waters approach 20 ft. Conditions will gradually improve
Wednesday night into Thursday as seas become west-northwesterly
but SCA conditions will likely linger through Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The rain on snow coastal storm Tuesday night into Wednesday will
cause overland/urban flooding and riverine flooding. The ongoing
snow event will provide additional runoff as most of it is
likely to melt south of the mountains. Antecedent conditions
with frozen soils and reduced channel capacity will exacerbate
rises on streams and rivers. Small streams are likely to be the
most problematic, especially those that have grown some ice
coverage over the last week. Although confidence is low
considering the extended nature of the forecast, variability in
model guidance remaining, potential precipitation type issues,
and snowmelt questions in the mountains, the threat for
impactful flooding is present. WPC has made the rare move of
adding a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the region on
day 4-5.
Foothills southward: Most of today`s snow will melt out with the
rain on snow event Tuesday night into Wednesday from the
foothills southward, adding around 0.5-1" of runoff. With the
limited runoff from the headwaters, the main stem rivers are not
expected to exceed the minor flood category. Coastal rivers
could reach low end moderate if rainfall exceeds 2", which is
generally higher than currently forecasted.
Mountains: The biggest question is the amount of precipitation
that will fall as snow vs. liquid, and magnitude and duration of
dewpoints above the freezing mark. The ongoing snow is dry and
cold, meaning it will take some time to ripen to a point where
it will melt. Based on the latest forecast conditions, snowmelt
should range from 0.5-0.75" in the Presidentials with lesser
releases in the western ME mountains. This should keep the flood
potential around the minor category in the mountains, though
trends are favoring colder conditions and more limited flooding.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A powerful storm is forecast to bring a period of strong
southeasterly winds to the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Model guidance suggests maximum surge of 2.5-3.5 ft with this
system. At the same time, we are entering a period of elevated
astronomical tides for the month. Should significant surge
overlap with the Wednesday 9:36 AM astrotide of 10.3 ft
(Portland), moderate coastal inundation can be expected with
significant near-shore wave action leading to beach erosion and
overwash. Since this is a fairly fast-moving system, the timing
of surge will be a critical key to determining coastal impacts.
Another system is forecast to cross the region over the weekend
when astronomical tides will be at their peak. Although this is
a significantly lower confidence forecast, it will bear
watching for any amount of surge.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ151-153.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Tubbs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
802 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Accumulating snow Monday and Monday night across western
Minnesota, spreading to southern Minnesota Monday night and
Tuesday. Several inches are possible across western Minnesota.
- Active pattern remains in place through next weekend with
chances for light snow Wednesday through Thursday and Friday
through Saturday.
- The first true shot of arctic air of the season arrives late
week with hazardous wind chills expected.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 756 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
00z HRRR and incoming NAM show little change to the going
forecast, with the highest QPF amounts really being confined to
to the portion of SW MN covered by the NWS Sioux Falls office.
We`re still borderline for a warning for southwest Redwood
county in particular, but with the forecast looking pretty
similar to what the day shift left us with and the fact that the
Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) shows only Minor Impacts
from this event (so will slow down traffic, but not impede its
movement), we have decided to stay the course with the current
Winter Weather Advisory we have in place.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a potent wave over the
Desert Southwest with high clouds quickly overspreading the central
Plains. As the system moves over the southern High Plains tonight,
moisture advection will rapidly increase across the southern Plains
from the Gulf and interact with mid level frontogenesis stretching
from western Kansas to western Minnesota. A band of snow will form
along this corridor from south to north as moisture increases with
northern extent. Light to moderate snow will begin early Monday
morning (4-5 AM) southwest of the MN River and then continue
spreading north across west central MN through mid morning. The
band will remain parked across western MN for the rest of the
day and through at least Monday evening. Eventually it will
dissipate as the system becomes negatively tilted and moisture
advection is refocused within the main deformation band/TROWAL
across Iowa and Wisconsin Monday night. Accumulations of 3 to 6
inches are expected across west central MN, although this may be
conservative in some locations given the trend of increasing
QPF in the last 24 hours. 12Z HREF is painting 6 to 9 inches
south of Swift County, which isn`t unreasonable with multiple
forms of guidance bringing 3/4-1 inch QPF to those areas
(NAM/GFS/NAMNest/NSSLWRF). However, these amounts are predicated
on the most intense portion of the band remaining stationary or
nearly stationary for several hours and confidence is not high
enough yet to pinpoint where this fairly narrow area will
ultimately set up. Therefore, felt comfortable with a Winter
Weather Advisory over much of western MN for now, especially
with light winds and a longer duration event which shouldn`t
result in compounding hazards/impacts.
As the storm matures Monday night well to the south, the
aforementioned TROWAL and main deformation band will refocus to the
southeast late Monday night into Tuesday. During this transition
period, widespread light snow is possible area wide, but the most
impressive additional totals will be across far southern MN closest
to the main corridor of refocused heavier rates. It is here where 3
inches may fall and a second Winter Weather Advisory is being
posted. Amounts will gradually dissipate to the north, and parts of
east central MN north of the metro and northeast MN/northwest WI may
struggle to even accumulate an inch.
The first system will pull away Tuesday morning and a clipper will
be quick on its heels Wednesday into Thursday. The low will track
across northern MN, but a WAA wing of snow will extend to the south,
likely impacting much of the area. Amounts will be light, less than
an inch.
Another larger system will take shape across the Desert Southwest
and track in fairly similar fashion to its predecessor across the
Mid Mississippi Valley. The bulk of impacts with this one could miss
the area completely, but if an inverted trough forms it may bring
additional light accumulation. The bigger story with this system is
it will finally phase the polar and sub-tropical jets and allow for
arctic air to spill south into the CONUS. The duration and degree of
cold air is still in question, but it is quite likely the region
will have highs in the single digits and lows below zero by next
weekend. Gusty winds should keep temps from dropping too much,
but will drive wind chills down to hazardous levels.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
With light winds becoming easterly overnight, the clearing that
has been slowly moving east across MN during the day is done
moving east and will spread back west overnight as the next
round of snow approaches from the south. There is not a whole
lot of difference in timing of this band of snow and followed
the hrrr/rap to time it into the TAFs. For MKT/MSP/RNH/STC,
this will be a transient feature, but will stall out over
western MN to help keep the snow going through the day once it
starts at AXN/RWF. In general, expect heaviest snow to produce
3/4sm vsbys, with some brief bursts down to 1/2sm possible.
KMSP...Confidence is high that MSP will see a band of snow move
through late Monday morning, with a 2-4 hour period of -SN
expected before an extended break in snow before it moves back
in toward the end of the period. The stratus clearing made a
valiant effort to make it to MSP, but its eastward push has
stalled, with another 30 hours of MVFR/IFR cigs expected.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...MVFR. Chc IFR/-SN early. Wind N 15G25 kts.
Wed...MVFR likely. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind NW 5-10 kts bcmg SW.
Thu...MVFR likely. Chc IFR/-SN early. Wind WNW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday
for Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Stevens-Swift.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday
for Brown-Redwood-Renville-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday
for Faribault-Freeborn-Martin.
WI...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
530 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 122 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
Chilly, breezy day across the midstate with current temperatures
in the upper 30s to upper 40s and west winds gusting up to 25
mph. Radar is still showing some sprinkles in our north, and the
HRRR model suggests additional sprinkles and even some flurries
will be possible in our northeast counties this afternoon. Nothing
significant is expected though. Clouds are expected to thin out
tonight which will allow temperatures to drop down into the chilly
mid to upper 20s areawide. Could see some patchy fog or freezing
fog in a few areas due to low dewpoint depressions, but nothing
widespread is anticipated as the LLJ will begin increasing again
towards sunrise.
A much warmer and windier day is expected on Monday with
increasing clouds as the next upper trough moves out of the
Plains into the Southeast. Despite the increasing cloud cover,
strengthening WAA will allow temperatures to warm rapidly into
the upper 40s to mid 50s during the day. Winds will also increase
out of the southeast with gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 122 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
Two strong storm systems are expected to affect Middle Tennessee
this week - first Monday night through Tuesday night, then
Thursday through Friday night. With the first system, the
associated surface low is shown by 12Z guidance to move from
Oklahoma on Monday to Illinois on Tuesday while deepening to an
impressive 980 mb. Due to the very strong WAA and lift with this
system, we will see a rapid airmass change on Monday with
widespread moderate to occasionally heavy rain overspreading the
entire area by Monday evening and continuing through Monday night
before exiting Tuesday morning. Rainfall totals will be the
heaviest we have seen in some time with 1 to 2 inches anticipated
areawide. In addition to the rainfall, the low level jet is
progged to strengthening significantly Monday evening into Monday
night as the deepening surface low passes to our northwest, with
925mb winds increasing to 50-60 knots. This should allow for
occasional surface wind gusts into the 35-45 mph range,
especially across our southeast half, and in coordination with
surrounding offices have gone ahead and issued a wind advisory
for Monday night and Tuesday.
As the surface low passes to our north on Tuesday, surface winds
will shift from southeast to southwest. Winds will likely
decrease below wind advisory criteria on Tuesday morning, but
then increase again by Tuesday afternoon as the upper level dry
slot and associated 40-50kt 850 jet noses through the cwa.
Therefore just kept the wind advisory going through Tuesday
afternoon to not complicate messaging. Although the bulk of the
rain will move out Tuesday morning, wraparound showers will
continue through the afternoon into Tuesday night before moving
out Wednesday morning. As temperatures drop through the 30s
Tuesday evening, the rain showers are expected to changeover to
snow showers across most of the midstate prior to ending. Little
or no snow accumulation is expected for most areas, but a couple
tenths of an inch of snow appears possible in the counties along
the KY border and across the Upper Cumberland and Cumberland
Plateau.
Only a brief dry period is anticipated Wednesday and Wednesday
night before the next upper trough digging into the Desert
Southwest approaches in this very active weather pattern. Some
light rain is anticipated to reach our western counties by late
Thursday, but the bulk of this next round of rain will arrive
Thursday night and Friday before precip ends Friday night. 12Z
operational GFS/ECMWF differ considerably on the surface and
upper features with this system, but both show it will be even
stronger than the Monday night/Tuesday system with another inch
or so of rainfall plus a better chance for some wraparound
accumulating snow. Although any snow will be very dependent on
the eventual surface low track, at this range appears up to 0.5
inches of snow is possible Friday night - mainly in our northern
counties. In the wake of this system, a bitterly cold Arctic
airmass will be moving southward through the Plains states as yet
another strong storm system takes shape early next week. It
remains very unclear if/when this Arctic airmass could reach our
neck of the woods if at all, which will have big implications on
the potential for any winter weather around MLK day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
A surface ridge is sliding across Middle Tennessee this evening.
So we can enjoy light/calm winds overnight, but then surface winds
will increase considerably tomorrow ahead of a fast-approaching
low pressure system. TAFs are VFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 29 54 44 55 / 0 10 100 100
Clarksville 28 51 42 54 / 0 20 100 100
Crossville 25 47 37 52 / 0 10 100 100
Columbia 28 52 42 54 / 0 20 100 100
Cookeville 28 50 41 54 / 0 10 100 100
Jamestown 26 47 38 53 / 0 0 100 100
Lawrenceburg 29 52 42 54 / 0 20 100 100
Murfreesboro 27 53 41 56 / 0 10 100 100
Waverly 29 50 41 53 / 0 30 100 100
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday for Bedford-
Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Rose
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
544 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
Afternoon water vapor imagery shows the potent upper level low
digging southward into Arizona. The low is forecast to pivot
eastward across New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle tonight and
into Monday. Closer to home, temperatures have climbed into the 60s
under mostly sunny skies. Southerly winds have become gusty
especially across the western Concho Valley and northern Edwards
Plateau, where wind gusts over 40 mph have been observed over the
last hour. The 850mb jet will crank up overnight as the upper
level trough approaches. This will lead to very windy conditions
continuing overnight, with wind gusts in excess of 45 mph
possible. Also, high res model guidance including the HRRR and the
RAP continues to develop a line of elevated convection along a
pre-frontal trough out to our west, with this line pushing
eastward across the Big Country and Concho Valley between 09-12Z.
While instability parameters are weak and the severe threat is
low, some marginally severe wind gusts are possible due to the
ample low and mid level wind shear in place. Any showers and
storms should exit our area by the late morning hours.
The Pacific front will sweep across west central Texas in the
afternoon. Winds will turn around out of the west and with a tight
pressure gradient, winds will remain quite gusty into the evening
hours. The wind advisory has been extended through most of the
day. Despite the downsloping westerly winds, temperatures will be
mainly in the mid to upper 50s, with some 60s in the Hill Country.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
Strong, gusty winds are expected to continue Monday night,
contributing to very cold wind chill values for the morning commute
Tuesday. Dry with a warming trend through the middle of the week.
Turning colder by Friday, with higher uncertainty on precipitation
chances.
The potent upper level low will move east-northeast across the
northern half of Oklahoma Monday night, and then lift northeast into
Missouri Tuesday morning. Strong, gusty west to northwest winds are
expected prior to Midnight, with some decrease in wind speeds toward
morning. Anticipate that wind speeds into early Monday night will
remain at Advisory levels. With temperatures dropping to 30-35
degrees by daybreak Tuesday, very cold wind chill values in the
upper teens to mid 20s are expected for the morning commute.
Wind speeds will subside during the day Tuesday as the surface
pressure gradient relaxes. Skies will be sunny, but temperatures
will remain chilly with afternoon highs generally in the lower 50s.
A warming trend will follow Wednesday and Thursday, with mostly
sunny skies and mainly southwest winds both days. Quasi-zonal flow
aloft Wednesday will become southwest Thursday afternoon, ahead of
the next upper trough which is progged to dive south-southeast
toward Arizona.
The medium range models differ with the track of this next upper
trough as it progresses to the southern Plains and Texas. This puts
higher uncertainty in the strength of an associated cold frontal
passage Thursday night, and whether our area will have a chance for
precipitation late Thursday night and Friday. Stronger cold air
advection with a farther south track of the upper system could
potentially result in a chance of snow for our northern counties.
This looks to be a fast-moving system, with dry conditions next
weekend. Seasonably cool for Saturday with highs in the 50s after
morning lows in the 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
Gusty south winds will continue increase after sunset as a low level
jet ramps up. This will create some LLWS across the area to the tune
of 50-60 kts out of the south. Sustained winds tonight will be
between 15-28 kts with gusts between 35-40 kts at all sites.
Stratus is expected to build north generally after 03Z, leading to
MVFR/IFR ceilings at all sites overnight. A line of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop after 09Z along a Pacific
front, mainly impacting the KABI terminal. Visibility degradations
may be needed in future updates as well as some TEMPO groups to
account for the strongest activity. As this frontal boundary moves
through, MVFR to IFR ceilings will begin to clear from the west
as winds begin to veer to a more westerly direction. While gusts
will come down slightly immediately following the frontal passage,
gusts will likely kick back up into the 30-40 kt range by late
morning at all terminals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 47 57 32 52 / 70 50 0 0
San Angelo 47 57 32 53 / 30 30 0 0
Junction 49 61 33 54 / 20 30 0 0
Brownwood 47 59 32 51 / 50 70 0 0
Sweetwater 45 53 32 51 / 50 20 0 0
Ozona 45 54 32 53 / 10 20 0 0
Brady 50 59 35 52 / 30 50 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST Monday for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-
Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...50