Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/07/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
913 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Our first major winter storm of the season impacts eastern NY
and western New England tonight with moderate to heavy snow.
Steady snow continues tomorrow morning before transitioning to
snow showers in the afternoon and ending Sunday night. Dry
conditions return Monday before our attention turns to our next
widespread precipitation event for the middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Radar and satellite trends show light to moderate snow over
central and eastern NY spreading into western New England. The
best isentropic lift, low level forcing and upper divergence
is tracking across the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and
NW CT and points south. The heaviest precipitation and deepest
moisture are south of our region and moving east and northeast,
possibly disrupting the better flow of moisture and low level
forcing from building into our region. There are pockets of
moderate snow in central and eastern NY but no organized bands
or large areas. Snowfall rates have been in the 1/4 to 1/2 inch
range with bursts around 3/4 of an inch per hour north of the
eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.
The NY Mesonet and reports from surrounding areas suggest 1 to
4 inches of snow in the past 6 hours and with the deepest
moisture and cooling cloud tops in IR satellite image steadily
moving east, there may be a lull in the steadier snow before
daybreak, before the nest trailing upper energy and low level
forcing tracks into our region toward daybreak, and affects our
region with more periods of snow through the day Sunday.
So, took snow amounts down a little bit for tonight from about
I-90 northward, but still, some enhanced snowfall is possible in
higher terrain due to upslope, especially in the southern
Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and southern Green Mountains.
However, even in those areas, a little less snow than previous
forecast. Grand storm totals through Sunday are still 5 to 10
inches with some spots near a foot in higher terrain in most
areas along and north of I-90, which still supports Winter Storm
Warnings in most areas. Still expecting a storm totals through
Sunday of a foot or more over areas south of I-90.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
GOES16 water vapor imagery shows our southern stream shortwave
intensifying over the Appalachians with strong upper level
diffluence in the left exit region of our 300hPa jet resulting
in our strengthening sfc low over the Delmarva Peninsula.
Satellite imagery shows rapidly cooling cloud tops in response
to the strong forcing for ascent with the storm`s precipitation
shield expanding and advancing northward across the mid-Atlantic
states. While the main precipitation shield is still to our
south over PA, MD and NJ, some snow showers have developed ahead
of it in Central NY and the Catskills with some ASOS and NYS
mesonet sites showing light snow. Any snow showers will be light
and with some dry air in the mid-levels (as seen on the 12 UTC
ALY sounding), any snow that does reach the ground will only
result in coatings.
The main precipitation shield that will be responsible for our
moderate to heavy snowfall is still progged to reach our
northern/eastern Catskill and mid-Hudson Valley locations by 21
to 00 UTC before spreading north and eastward early this
evening. The RAP and HREF have handle the onset timing the best
of all the high res so we adjusted POPs based on this guidance.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
* Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for all of eastern New York
and western New England tonight through tomorrow evening..
* Avoid any unnecessary travel tonight as heavy snowfall rates
will lead to dangerous travel conditions and reduced
visibilities.
Snow arrives from southwest to northeast this evening with snow
reaching the Mohawk Valley and Greater Capital District by 00 -
03 UTC before advancing into the southern Adirondacks, Upper
Hudson Valley, and western New England by 03 - 06 UTC. Strong
isentropic lift combined with mid-level frontogenesis on the
leading edge of our winter storm will produce moderate to heavy
snowfall rates quickly after snow begins. Forecast soundings
support lift intersecting the dendritic snow growth zone which
will support snowfall rates ranging 1 to 1.5 inches through
about 06 - 08 UTC for much of the area. This is supported via
the latest probabilistic guidance from the HREF and DESI. Travel
conditions will be especially dangerous during this time as
heavy snow results in reduced visibilities and snow efficiently
accumulates. With high pressure positioned in northern New
England, the isallobaric wind component may help drain chilly
air currently in the North Country southward. Thus, we sided
with the NBM10th for temperatures showing many dropping into the
20s tonight. In addition, northeasterly winds in western New
England turn breezy tonight with gusts up to 25-30 kts possible.
Easterly 925hPa winds increase to around 30 kts during this
time and local ALY research has shown that these wind regimes
enhance snowfall amounts in the eastern slopes of the eastern
and northern Catskills, southern Adirondacks, Rensselaer
Plateau, northern Berkshires, and southern Greens. Therefore,
snowfall rates up 2 inches per hour are likely in these higher
terrain areas. On the flip side, this wind regime will likely
lead to precipitation shadowing in Washington County and western
Bennington County and even parts of northern Herkimer and
Hamilton County due to blocked flow from the southern Greens and
southern Adirondacks. Thus, lower snowfall rates are expected
here.
Our coastal low tracks off the coast of Long Island and escapes
towards Cape Cod after 06 UTC. As a result, the strongest forcing
for ascent will shift eastward out of our area resulting in
lighter snowfall rates. In fact, high res guidance suggests that
the associated mid-level dry slot will intrude into parts of
our forecast area, especially the mid-Hudson Valley, Berkshire
and Litchfield County. While this will reduce moisture in the
DGZ and thus will reduce snowfall rates, moisture should be
maintained in the lower levels so light snow should still
continue for the rest of the overnight. We did, however, reduce
POPs, south of I-90 to account for the dry slot and added brief
sleet mention for the I-84 corridor.
Total snowfall by Sunday morning likely ranges 6 - 10 inches
across much of the forecast area with 12 - 15 inches likely in
the aforementioned favorable upslope higher terrains. Light
snow early Sunday will likely turn moderate once again by mid to
late morning as the upper level trough moves overhead and we
enter into the upper level deformation of the intensifying
coastal low. Snowfall rates will not be as high as seen
overnight but rates 0.5 - 1 inch per hour may return through
early Sunday afternoon. Expect an additional 1 to 3 inches with
potential for 2 - 4 inches if local mesoscale banding can
develop.
Snowfall rates decrease mid to late Sunday afternoon as the coastal
low exits even further out to sea but with the parent shortwave
intensifying into a cut-off low, mid-level moisture lingers
over much of eastern NY and western New England through the rest
of the daytime and even into Sunday evening. However, without
the strong forcing in play, additional snow accumulations will
be light with only up to around one inch or so expected. The
majority of the snow should finally end Sunday evening (00 - 03
UTC Monday) but with winds shifted to the northwest, snow
showers will likely linger in the favorable upslope areas of the
southern Greens, northern/eastern Catskills, and southern
Adirondacks. Overnight temperatures Sunday night turn chilly as
clouds partially clear, dropping into the upper teens to low
20s.
Total snowfall for this winter storm ranges from 8 - 12 inches
with 12 - 18 inches in the higher terrain areas of the
northern/eastern Catskills, southern Adirondacks, Berkshire
County, and southern Greens. Lower amounts of 4 to 8 inches
expected in Washington County, NY into western Bennington
County, Vt as well as parts of northern Herkimer/Hamilton
Counties due to blocking effects from the southern Greens and
southern Adirondacks.
High pressure builds in for Monday resulting in mostly sunny
skies, seasonable temperatures, and breezy conditions thanks to
the sfc pressure gradient overhead. Effective radiational
cooling conditions expected Monday night given clear skies,
light winds and a fresh snow pack. We sided with the cooler end
of guidance for low temperatures with many expected to drop into
the teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The active and progressive pattern continues through the long term
period, bringing additional chances for rain and snow, as well as
potential high wind and flooding hazards to the region through the
end of the workweek and into the upcoming holiday weekend. A deep
upper trough over the Central Plains will support the development of
a surface cyclone over the Mississippi Valley which will
subsequently deepen as it tracks northeastward toward the Great
Lakes. The upper trough will become negatively tilted as it
approaches the Northeast, with potent northward advection of
relatively warm and humid air on its eastern flank within a 60-80 kt
south-southeasterly low-level jet, a +4-5 SD anomaly per the latest
NAEFS guidance. This anomalous flow may additionally bring PW
nearing 1" to southern zones and in excess of 0.75" to much of the
region, as IVT reaches some 4-6 SD above normal for this time of
year. Diffluence ahead of the upper shortwave will further increase
the synoptic support for lift and chances for heavy precipitation
across the region.
As the surface low approaches from the southwest and the LLJ
impinges on the region, strong, gusty winds may develop due to
downslope enhancement on the western slopes of the southern Greens,
Berkshires, Taconics, and Adirondacks where gusts may reach 30-50
mph on Tuesday. Cold, dry high pressure in place over the Northeast
ahead of the aforementioned system may allow for precipitation to
initially fall as a burst of snow for much of the region, or as
rain/snow mix in the warmer fiver valleys, by Tuesday afternoon
before transitioning to rain across the area as warm advection
increases. Temperatures won`t be able to fall very far from Tuesday
highs in the upper 20s to low 30s in higher terrain and mid 30s to
mid 40s at lower elevations to Tuesday night lows in the upper 20s
to upper 30s across the region as rainfall spreads northward
overnight. Within warm advection on Wednesday, temperatures rise
well above normal as highs reach the upper 30s to low 40s in high
terrain and mid 40s to low 50s at lower elevations.
Periods of heavy rain are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning as the surface low makes its closest approach as it passes
to the west of the region. Upslope terrain enhancement on southeast
facing slopes will provide additional forcing for heavy rain, with
particular concern in the eastern Catskills. Given the widespread
snowpack which will be in place across the forecast area, potential
flooding due to heavy rain could be exacerbated by snowmelt
contributions to additional runoff. As such, WPC has maintained a
Slight Risk for flooding from excessive rainfall over the eastern
Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, Taconics, Berkshires, and Litchfield
Hills for Tuesday and Tuesday night, with a Marginal Risk farther
north including the Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, the Greater
Capital District, and southern Vermont. Multi-model ensemble river
forecasts additionally suggest at least 30% chances of minor or
moderate flooding on many area rivers and streams, particularly
south and east of Albany. See the hydro discussion below for
additional details.
As rainfall ends Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, westerly
low-level flow and cold advection arrive behind the cold frontal
passage. Lake-effect snow showers developing late Wednesday may
persist through Thursday and much of Friday across the southwestern
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Otherwise, brief upper
ridging overhead will yield a return to dry conditions for the rest
of the region for Thursday and Thursday night. Temperatures trend
down toward seasonable values, with highs in the upper 20s to mid
30s in high terrain and upper 30s to mid 40s at lower elevations on
Thursday and Friday, while lows dip into the upper 10s to upper 20s
across the region Thursday and Friday nights. Yet another deep upper
trough and associated surface low looks to approach the region late
Friday, bringing additional chances for rain and snow into the
holiday weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Snow is spreading over the region and conditions at all TAF
sites will become IFR, with periods of LIFR through the night.
The snow is expected to continue through most of Sunday, but the
intensity may lighten up a bit, allowing for some periods of
MVFR conditions.
Winds will be light from the northeast and east at less than 10
Kt tonight, although, some gusts around 15 Kt are possible at
KPSF. Northeast to east winds continue Sunday at 10 Kt or less
but will be gusty at KPSF, up to 20-25 Kt. LLWS is possible
tonight at KALB, KPOU and KPSF with winds at 2000 feet east to
southeast at 35-45 Kt.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...SN.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. Definite RA...SN.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Definite SHRA...RA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread moderate to locally heavy rain is expected Tuesday
night through Wednesday as a anomalously moisture rich
disturbance impacts the Northeast. Antecedent conditions are
wet given recent heavy rainfall events in Decembers and with a
snowpack on the ground, the combination of heavy rain and some
snow melt may result in both river and localized flooding.
Guidance has been consistently showing this event for multiple
days so confidence is growing for yet another hydro event. In
fact, the Weather Prediction Center continues to place much of
eastern NY and western New England in its marginal and slight
risk in its Day 4 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. In addition, the
Northeast River Forecast Center has outlined our eastern
Catskill, mid- Hudson Valley and NW CT areas in its Significant
Flood Outlook for this period as well.
While heavy rain looks likely, there are some uncertainties
regarding how much snow melt can take place as the snow pack
needs to ripen before it can melt. Even still, temperatures are
expected to warm well above normal Tuesday night through
Wednesday including dew points rising into the 40s so some snow
melt is expected. Those prone to river flooding should maintain
a close eye on the forecast over the coming days.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...NAS/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...Picard/Speciale
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1020 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2024
.UPDATE...
In light of inbound radar returns, the degree of elevated ascent set
to overspread Se Mi late tonight into Sun morning is a little
stronger than earlier expected. There is also some concern in that
RAP soundings show respectable supersaturation with respect to ice
within the dendritic growth layer. There have nudged pops and
snowfall totals up a bit from the earlier forecast. Can not rule out
the potential for some half inch to inch type accumulations as
temperatures hold largely around or just below freezing. Left some
room for the potential for further adjustments based on
observational trends and the arrival of the full 00Z model suite.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 555 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2024
AVIATION...
An area of light snow will exit northeast of the terminals shortly
after TAF issuance with the passage of a short wave impulse. After
some rebound in ceilings heights per area observations, upstream
observations and model guidance suggest lower clouds will advance
across Se Mi during the course of the night. Probabilities for IFR
ceilings actually become quite high late tonight and through Sunday
morning. Broad troughing along and at the surface will sustain some
weak forced ascent tonight and Sunday. With increasing moisture and
thermal profiles supportive of snow, light snow showers/flurries are
again expected late tonight into Sunday.
For DTW...The next rough of light snow and reduced
ceilings/visibilities across Illinois should expand across metro
Detroit after 08Z.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Moderate to high in ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon through
tonight.
* Moderate in precip type being snow today and tonight.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2024
KEY MESSAGES...
- Nuisance snow showers this weekend to bring minimal accumulations
as temperature reach the mid 30s both days.
- Surge of moisture in advance of developing winter storm to the
west will bring a burst of heavy, wet snow Tuesday morning with
a few inches of accumulation expected before snow changes to rain
by afternoon.
- This strong winter storm will then track through the region into
Wednesday with lingering rain and a possible change back to snow
with additional light accumulations possible for some areas.
- A wintry pattern will continue through the week with several more
storm systems bringing possible accumulating snow followed by much
colder conditions next weekend.
DISCUSSION...
Scattered light snow showers will persist this evening as upper low
pressure lifts into northern Lower MI and vorticity lobes pivots
through the area around the base of this low. Any accumulations,
well under an inch, should be confined to grassy surfaces given the
relatively mild conditions in place. Flurries may persist overnight
before a second period of slightly enhanced snow shower activity
works into the region Sunday morning as a secondary channel of
vorticity shears through the area and provides a period of lift as
minor surface low pressure reflection develops from southern Lake
Michigan and then fills as it cross the area. This Sunday morning
activity will be focused along and south of M-59 and again any minor
accumulations under an inch should mainly occur on grassy surfaces
as temperatures once again climb into the mid 30s.
After a dry period from late Sunday on into Monday evening as high
pressure translates east across the area, attention will turn to a
strong winter storm developing to the west. The initial impact from
this system will come early Tuesday morning as the warm conveyor in
advance of this storm system is driven north within the corridor of
a substantial low level jet (H85 40-60 kts). Expected an area of
strong lift associated with this surge of warm air advection, aided
by left exit region of strong H3 upper jet nosing into the area and
coupling to some degree with massive anti-cyclonically curve jet
more in the H2 layer as it brushes the area on its way into the
northeast CONUS.
This will lead to a rapidly expanding area of snow which should lift
into the forecast area from the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday on through
the rest of the morning. Given the degree of lift involved, suspect
a fairly heavy burst of heavy, wet snow will be possible over parts
of the area early Tuesday morning with this area then shifting east
in the mid/late morning period. Continued broad scale lift with then
maintain precipitation throughout the day Tuesday into Tuesday night
with a changeover to rain with time on Tuesday afternoon as the
surge of mild/moist air continues north through the area in advance
of the center of this storm system.
The storm will then mature and track over or just west of the region
by Wednesday. There will be a tendency for the rain to mix with or
change back to snow Wednesday as colder air associated with the core
of the storm system wraps back east into the area. Precipitation
will also become more inconsistent as a mid level dry slot also
wraps into the area as the low pressure center lifts into lower MI.
This period of the forecast will be largely defined by the west to
east orientation of the winter storm by the time it ejects into the
Great Lakes. With the current consensus, the heaviest snow (outside
that initial burst Tue AM) will hold well west of the region with
only minor accumulations as leftover snow wraps back into the area
Wednesday as the system passes.
A wintry pattern sets up for the rest of the week into next weekend
as the next Pacific shortwave races quickly into the area by around
Thursday and brings the potential for light snow or perhaps a rain
and snow mix into Friday. Yet another strong shortwave will then
encroach on the area by early next weekend with some potential for
widespread snow. Confidence in the track of this system remains very
low at the moment. Temperatures through the week will remain in the
30s with a much colder air mass just beginning to spill into the
region over the weekend after the passage of that potential storm
system.
MARINE...
Weak low pressure tracks eastward this evening bringing chances for
snow to the region, with the highest chances for precipitation over
northern Lake Huron. Easterly flow will die down overnight before
flipping to westerly flow tomorrow. Wind speeds briefly pick up
Sunday evening peaking at 15-20 knots. After a brief period of high
pressure following the current low pressure, the next big system
slated to move in will impact the region beginning Tuesday into
Wednesday. A deep upper level trough will bring the storm track up
from the southwest, bringing chances for precipitation and high
winds over the lake. Sustained southeast flow followed by a shift to
northeast will give chances for gale force gusts Tuesday evening and
Wednesday morning. Confidence on the gale event is low at the
moment, but hazardous conditions still have the potential to
materialize.
HYDROLOGY...
Developing low pressure to the west will lead to an expansion of
precipitation into the area Tuesday morning. This precipitation will
begin as snow early Tuesday morning and transition to rain during
the afternoon with rain continuing into Tuesday night. Given the
degree of moisture that will be pulled up from the Gulf of Mexico,
current forecast rainfall amounts for the day Tuesday range from
around an inch near the Michigan and Ohio state line to one third to
one half an inch north into the Saginaw Valley and Thumb. While
significant flooding is not expected, these rainfall totals will be
sufficient to produce minor flooding in low lying and poorly drained
areas as well as ponding of water on roadways once the initial snow
melts.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...DG
MARINE.......BC
HYDROLOGY....DG
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
527 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winter storm Monday - Tuesday Night
- Another wintry system possible late next week
- Very cold air arriving for next weekend
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2024
Around 4 PM, I updated to increase pops to likely to categorical
for the ongoing light snow. This light snow has accumulated on
grass outside our office to 0.2", and that`s probably less than
what it`s doing to to our east, thus graphics and grids have
been updated for the 1/2 inch snow event this evening, with
marginal surface temperatures for road impacts, which could be
slick in spots, but probably mainly wet in most locations. The
snow should taper off from west to east between 6 pm and 10pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2024
Flurries and light snow are ongoing along and east of the MS
River with otherwise low clouds and patchy aviation fog with
visibilities mostly 2 to 5 miles. This is as a result of an
upper level wave currently sweeping across the region. Added
at least flurries into the forecast with some slight/low
chances for mainly light snow through the evening and overnight.
The best chances will be along and east of the MS River where a
light dusting to a half inch of snow will be possible. Little
to no impacts from this snow are anticipated. The current
forecast has the snow ending by 6 AM, but the HRRR is hinting
that some flurries or light snow may linger across the NE half
of the CWA into Sunday. Some partial clearing is forecast for
Sunday afternoon with clouds returning Sunday night ahead of the
system for Monday. Lows tonight will slip into the mid 20s to
low 30s. Highs Sunday will be in the lower and middle 30s. For
Sunday night, temperatures will be a little colder with most of
the CWA in the 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2024
Monday through Wednesday...Winter Storm Discussion
Our well advertised and discussed winter storm remains on track in
latest model guidance to impact portions, to a good chunk of
eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri.
The strong trough of low pressure that is going to be responsible
for our winter storm is currently over the Pacific Northwest, and is
beginning to get good sampling with surface observations, RAOBs and
the hurricane hunters. Latest deterministic guidance shows this
trough traversing the western CONUS and Rockies over the weekend,
becoming a closed low as diffluence aloft from a very strong jet
streak strengthens. This closed low will make its way towards the
Four Corners and eventually the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles by midday
Monday, where strong cyclogenesis is poised to take place in the low-
levels and the development of a surface low. Both the closed low
aloft and the surface low are progged to deepen relatively quickly
as they traverse the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley
with help of strong diffluence with the jet aloft, and very strong
CVA accompanying the closed low aloft. This system will find itself
in the Midwest beginning Monday night, with a wide variety of
impacts expected through Wednesday.
As has been talked about in great detail lately, deterministic model
guidance, and to an extent more conservative ensemble guidance, has
been rather jumpy on the system track, ultimately shifting around
the axis of heaviest snowfall. Not shockingly (given we are still 3-
4 days out) 12 UTC guidance from today has been no different.
However, several things do remain consistent. First, as mentioned in
the previous AFD, the heaviest deformation snow band position
generally remains consistent, which looks to stretch from western
Missouri into north central Illinois (roughly a Warrensburg MO -
Quincy IL - Chicago IL line). This is supported by the LREF and
ECMWF ensembles (and to an extent its deterministic), which have
shown this trend in most of their latest model runs. Second, its
going to be really windy. With a very strong jet aloft promoting
strong divergence as the system tracks over the Midwest, the surface
low is expected to deepen quite rapidly and promote a tight pressure
gradient from the Ohio River Valley to the Midwest. As was mentioned
yesterday, probabilistic guidance continues to hint at a medium to
high chance (50-80%) of wind gusts near 40 MPH through much of the
storm`s duration, especially Tuesday afternoon and overnight into
Wednesday. Probabilities for wind gusts around 45 MPH or greater are
much lower (10-30%), but that should not discount the fact that
winds could lead to additional impacts through the event.
Given the spatial distribution still evident on most deterministic
models, will continue to advertise more of a probabilistic
forecast with this fcst package. ECM and GEFS ensembles are
consistent in an impactful snow (> 3 inches) roughly along and south
of a Freeport IL to Ottumwa IA line, with > 6 inch probabilities (70-
100%) focused mainly along the aforementioned heaviest deformation
snow band position in the previous paragraph. This includes much of
southeast Iowa, west central Illinois and northeast Missouri. The
snow that falls Monday night into Tuesday morning is likely to have
the most impacts given temps daytime Tuesday will be in the low 30s.
Given the uncertainty of the rain/snow line, how daytime temps in
the low 30s Tues could impact snowfall totals and lack of sampling
of jet streak with this system over the Pacific, decision was made
in collaboration with surrounding offices to hold on a Winter Storm
Watch in this forecast package. Regardless, those in eastern Iowa,
northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri that have plans early next
week should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
Thursday...
A shortwave riding on a poleward exit region of an upper level jet
streak will arrive across the area just in time for the Thursday AM
commute, which is likely to bring a light, fluffy snow areawide. Too
early to get into specifics at this time.
Friday and Saturday...
Guidance remains consistent on another storm tracking across the
Midwest, which has potential to bring impactful snow to the region.
Will have to keep a closer eye on this as colder air will be in
place ahead of this system, which could lead to more impacts. More
details on this will be in later forecast packages.
Following this system, a deep Arctic air mass is poised to build
across the Plains, Great Lakes and Midwest as we head into next
week. While there are a quite a few variables (eg. snow cover) that
could impact how cold we get, probabilities are there in latest
ensembles for lows next Saturday and Sunday to fall well into the
single digits (60-90%). This falls in line with the CPC 6-10 and 8-
14 Day temp outlooks, which favor below normal temperatures for the
region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2024
Widespread stratus cigs between 1000 and 2000 ft will continue
tonight, with the light snow ending, but light fog continuing
through 12Z in Illinois, and through around 08-10Z in Iowa, when
west winds will increase, and drier air will arrive. A slow
improvement in cigs will continue through the day Sunday, with
some VFR conditions expected to be widespread by 18Z.
In the next few hours, the light snow over Illinois will move
east of all terminals, with little accumulation on any ground
surface, but a dusting to 1/2 inch on elevated surfaces.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ervin
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Ervin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
502 PM MST Sat Jan 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather prevails through early evening before activity
redevelops over the southern mountains. Snow becomes more
widespread tonight through Monday.
- The highest totals will be in the southern mountains and
valleys. The highway 550, 160 and 491 corridors can expect
8-16 inches of snow, along with winds gusting up to 45 mph.
The southern valleys will receive 5 to 12 inches with winds
gusting to near 40 mph. Travel will be impacted due to slick,
snow-packed roads as well as reduced visibility in blowing and
drifting snow.
- Light to moderate accumulations are expected in the northern
and central valleys with upwards of 6 inches possible in east-
central Utah due to banding.
- An active weather pattern will keep temperatures cold this
week. More snow returns Wednesday, Thursday, and next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 414 PM MST Sat Jan 6 2024
Quiet weather has prevailed this afternoon (apart from some
light snow over the Elkhead and Park Mountains) as a weak,
transitory ridge remains in place. Clearing skies are evident on
satellite across eastern Utah, but observations also show the
next round of dense cloud cover is on our doorstep. The next
trough of low pressure will continue to dig into the Pacific
Northwest this afternoon, engulfing the entirety of the western
CONUS in response. Flow aloft will shift to the southwest as a
result, tightening into the overnight hours as the low sinks
into the Great Basin. While there isn`t an abundance of moisture
associated with this system, with PWATs only peaking at 100 to
120 percent of normal, intense broad scale ascent will be more
than enough to get things going. Scattered showers will kick off
across mainly the mountains in southeast Utah and southwest
Colorado late this evening before spilling into the adjacent
valleys by midnight. Strong upslope flow will enhance rates over
these areas, particularly the Southwest San Juans and Highway
160 corridor from Cortez east towards Wolf Creek Pass. Rates
will exceed 1 inch/hour and they could potentially reach 2 or
more inches per hour, as confidence continues to increase
regarding heavier bands of snow developing late tonight and into
Sunday morning. Not only will the southern tier of the forecast
area be receiving periods of moderate to heavy snow from this
event, but the continued tight gradient aloft will fuel gusty
winds at the surface, generally on the magnitude of 35 to 45
mph. This will lead to increased travel impacts as these
stronger winds bring about blowing and drifting snow, reducing
visibility to less than a mile, or even less over the mountain
passes. Therefore, the ongoing Winter Storm Warnings remain in
place, although did cut off a bit from the end time to account
for the drier weather and lower snow rates on Monday morning for
several zones. Please use caution as this storm impacts the West
Slope by checking the latest forecast and road conditions before
heading out.
As far as impacts to other portions of the forecast area...the
aforementioned banding potential has led to higher snowfall
projections across the Canyonlands / Natural Bridges and Arches
/ Grand Flat areas in eastern Utah. The NAMNest is hitting the
intensity of the bands a bit harder than the HRRR but, either
way, a band straddling the central portion of Utah Zone 29 and
another one over the Bookcliffs at the northern edge of Zone 27
overnight will enhance rates in these areas. Therefore, went
ahead and added both of these areas to the Winter Weather
Advisories starting tonight. If the bands do not materialize as
expected, or even reside longer, snowfall totals will be subject
to change. Either way, expect travel impacts along the I-70
corridor from the Utah / Colorado border tonight and early
Sunday. While some higher amounts close to 4 inches will bleed
over into the far western portion of the Grand Valley, the rest
of the zone will be sub-advisory. This trend continues going
along the rest of the I-70 corridor with generally 1 to 3 inches
possible. Drifting farther north, the East Tavaputs and Roan
Cliffs will generally see 5 to 7 inches of snow, so opted to
leave them out of the highlights as well. The same can be said
elsewhere in the forecast area with only light accumulations
expected in the northern valleys and mountains. We`ll continue
to monitor things though as this storm moves through.
By late Sunday morning the trough axis will be just outside our
border before its center tracks over the Four Corners later that
evening. This will keep conditions unsettled across the southern
zones and locations along the Divide, while drier air invading
from the north will see showers slowly taper off Sunday night
over northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Even with plenty of
clouds lingering on Sunday night, overnight lows will drop to
near or several degrees below normal area-wide.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 414 PM MST Sat Jan 6 2024
Model ensembles are indicating a significant shift in the weather
pattern with a cold dome of air sliding south over the CONUS through
the coming week that pushes the jet stream and storm track south
forming a mid to upper level longwave trough across the continent
that will last into the foreseeable future. A train of shortwave
troughs and weak ridges transiting the region every few days will
keep the weather generally unsettled with light orographic mountain
snow showers under the passing ridges becoming more moderate and
widespread across the region with the passing troughs. Clearing
skies in eastern Utah and the far western Colorado along the Utah
Border with each passing ridge will promote radiative cooling
setting up inversions in the valleys. Current guidance suggests
Tuesday and Friday mornings are prime for these conditions.
Temperatures will start the week near normal to five degrees below
normal in the lower elevations and five to ten degrees below normal
in the mountains. As the colder air moves south through the week,
these temperatures will drop to about ten degrees below normal and
20 degrees below normal respectively. Should the overnight clearing
happen, expect temperatures to drop another ten degrees Tuesday and
Friday, especially in the favored cold spots. Winds in the valleys
remain on the light side keeping the low level moisture in place
making fog and low stratus possible under inversions through the
period and feeding the orographic showers in the mountains favoring
the northern and western faces.
A shortwave passing to the northeast will bring increased snow
showers to the northern mountains Tuesday night spreading south into
the central Colorado mountains Wednesday. Mid level moisture from a
weak AR slipping through the Oregon gap will get pulled into this
system increasing the potential for heavier snow in the northern
mountains. A second shortwave hot on the first`s heels will push the
showers into the southern mountains Thursday. Currently the snow
accumulation expected from these waves remains borderline advisory
level with no winter weather headlines anticipated at this time.
Stay tuned for updates as this may change over the next few days. A
third shortwave next weekend looks to bring yet more snow to the
region supported by moisture from a second weak AR squeezing through
the Oregon gap Saturday, but it`s too far out to really look at snow
fall totals from this system. Expect this unsettled weather to
continue into the following week. We may not see a big storm dump
on us, but slow and steady builds the snow pack just as well.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM MST Sat Jan 6 2024
VFR conditions with increasing mid and high clouds will occur
this evening with snow increasing across the area after 06Z.
Snow will be fairly widespread with most TAF sites seeing VCSH
with mountain obscuration through the day on Sunday. Tonight
through Sunday morning, snow will fall across southeast Utah and
southwest Colorado before spreading into the central and
northern zones Sunday afternoon and evening. Conditions will be
below ILS breakpoints especially across the south due to low
CIGS and VSBY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Sunday for COZ003.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST
Monday for COZ009-017-021>023.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST
Monday for COZ012-020.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
Monday for COZ019.
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Sunday for UTZ025-029.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST
Monday for UTZ022-028.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for
UTZ027.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MMS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...MDA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
641 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2024
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through tonight)
Issued at 251 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2024
Light snow continues across most of the area with RAP analyses
showing a weak midlevel trough swinging through the Great Lakes.
With surface temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30F and a rather
warm airmass aloft (850mb temperatures only around -8C), SLRs are on
the lower end at around 10-12:1 so far. IR imagery shows the back
edge of this first wave of snow moving into the UP, and surface
observations indicate that snow is tapering off over western WI and
far western Upper Michigan. However, with persistent southeast flow
over the area, lake enhanced snow should linger into the evening
hours in the eastern and central UP. Up to a tenth of an inch of QPF
is expected in the SE lake effect areas of the east and central UP,
and in the Keweenaw, with lighter amounts elsewhere. This should
widespread totals of a trace to half an inch the rest of today and
into the evening, with locally higher amounts around or just in
excess of an inch where lake enhancement occurs.
As snow largely tapers off later this evening, expect cloudy skies
and patchy fog to linger into the night while temperatures drop into
the mid 20s. An approaching cold front will touch off our next
chances for light snow in the western UP heading into the early
morning hours of Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2024
Key Messages:
-We transition into an active pattern next week, bringing with it a
couple opportunities for widespread snow. How much will depend on
the track of the system`s producing these.
-Deepening low pressure over the Plains will move into the Great
Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing with it the potential
for accumulating system/lake enhanced snowfall and gusty winds.
-Another system will be possible Thursday/Friday.
The main item of interest in the long term period will be the
transition from our benign winter pattern so far, to a more active
pattern across the Great Lakes region, resulting in a couple
opportunities for snow. For some time now, guidance has suggested a
couple deep troughs over the southern Plains/Rockies will kick out
and lift northeast a couple different lows next week, potentially
interspersed with a weaker low/shortwave/clipper trying to dig into
the Northern Plains and middle Mississippi River Valley. Last
night`s 0z and today`s 12z guidance continues to suggest a similar
pattern. It should be noted that with this pattern, snow
accumulations will depend on system track. At this point, there is
still a notable amount of uncertainty in their trajectories, so
continued monitoring of the forecast is recommended for next week.
Beginning Sunday, a shortwave trough and clipper surface low will
press west to east through Lake Superior, pulling a cold front
through our forecast area. Frontal forcings and upper level dynamics
are lacking with this system and mostly confined closer to the
surface low. The post frontal airmass, characterized by 850mb temps
falling to around -9C atop a +4 or +5 degree lake surface, should be
enough to yield a brief round of lake effect snow though, mainly in
the Keweenaw and the eastern UP. Dry air and increasing subsidence
aloft though should work to lower inversion heights and erode shower
activity through the day, which will limit snow accumulations. Both
NBM and HREF snow probabilities highlight this well, indicating the
highest amounts are likely to be confined to the Spine of the
Keweenaw, perhaps upwards of 2 inches by the end of the day and
mostly in the morning hours. Less is expected elsewhere, with
perhaps isolated amounts approaching an inch in the eastern
northwest wind snow belts, mostly in the afternoon hours.
Brief surface ridging emanating southeast from a high over
Saskatchewan will result in a quiet Sunday night with lows in the
teens interior and near 20F by the lakeshores. This high slides
southeast through our forecast area during the day Monday as a deep
trough moves out of the southern Rockies and surface cyclogensis
begins in the Texas/Oklahoma/Colorado region. With this, a dry
Monday with highs in the upper 20s or low 30s is expected. As the
trough presses eastward and begins taking on a negative tilt, the
surface low will deepen as it lifts northeast into the Ohio River
Valley and Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday. Increasing q-
vector convergence and isentropic lift will precede the low,
allowing a mix of ptypes to lift northeast, then wrap around the low
and cool into snow as it moves toward the low`s deformation axis.
Those caught on the southern and eastern side of the system should
expect mostly rain, but those on the northeast side should expect a
mix of ptypes before transitioning to all snow along the low`s
northern flank. The GEFS and EC ensemble systems have consistently
positioned the UP to the northern or northwestern side of the system
within the deeper cold air while the low tracks through Lower
Michigan. This has checked well against previous GFS and EC
deterministic runs as well. These solutions would yield lake-
enhanced snow with an upslope component for the northeast snow belts
Tuesday and Wednesday, with maybe light to moderate system snow in
areas near Lake Michigan and the east if the precip shield extends
far enough north. The most recent NAM has trended north, bringing
the low through northern Lake Michigan and positioning the UP in the
ideal position for widespread system snow. When considering other
12z guidance though, this appears to be an outlier save for the EC`s
precip shield`s northward extent. At this point, leaning toward a
more northward spreading precip area, mixing in both the lake
enhanced and system snow option. Greatest areas of concern for this
scenario will be along the Lake Michigan lakeshores from Menominee
through Schoolcraft counties, Luce County, and the northeast snow
belts of Alger County and west of Marquette in Marquette County.
Snow probabilities among the various ensemble systems suggest these
areas are most likely (50% or higher) of exceeding 3 inches.
With the surface low deepening as it moves through the Great Lakes,
increasing pressure gradient will yield gusty winds, particularly
near the lakeshores and in the central/eastern UP. Depending on its
depth, northeast and northerly gusts upwards of 30 mph, with higher
gusts near the lakeshores, will be possible.
Weak ridging will follow Wednesday night, but erodes quickly as a
weak shortwave lifts northeast out of the Plains and a clipper
presses east across the Dakotas. Previous runs had both weakening on
their approach, but 12z guidance suggests the clipper may weaken
while reinforcing the low from the southeast. In either situation,
the colder airmass overhead coupled with forcings from either should
be able to yield additional widespread light snow Thursday/Thursday
night. It should be noted that there is some potential that this
could be a sneaky and overachieving system. EC and GEFS ensemble
meteograms show a couple members at various sites in the UP yielding
2-4 inches. At this point though, I`d say the probability of this is
low (<25%), but is something to watch as we move into next week.
As Thursday`s event unfolds over the region, another deep trough is
expected to dig into the Intermountain West/Four Corners region.
Much like the mid-week system, as it ejects into the Plains, a
surface low with ample access to Gulf of Mexico moisture will
develop and lift northeast. It is certainly way to early to speak
with much confidence about the track of this system, but anyone with
weekend plans should monitor the forecast for updates.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 640 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2024
The -sn that was over the area today continues to diminish, leaving
behind MVFR to IFR conditions. A cold front will move across the
area on Sun, bringing some lake effect -shsn. At IWD, expect MVFR to
prevail tonight. Cigs may bounce around to VFR at times, but vis
should remain MVFR in br with some -sn/flurries also possible. Wind
shift to nw Sun morning at IWD should bring cigs down to IFR with
ocnl -shsn as well. MVFR will prevail for Sun aftn. At CMX, IFR
should mostly prevail tonight. While cigs may bounce around to MVFR
or even VFR at times, vis should remain IFR in br and ocnl -sn. Wind
shift to nw will occur early Sun morning with an increase in -shsn.
Expect improvement to MVFR by late morning at CMX with MVFR then
continuing thru the aftn. At SAW, IFR should prevail thru the night,
though cigs may occasionally bounce around to MVFR or VFR at times.
Passage of cold front Sun morning will bring improvement to
prevailing MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 306 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2024
Winds should weaken tonight below 20 knots lake-wide. A cold front
pressing through the lake tomorrow will result in increasing colder
air aloft and wind gusts from the northwest. Raw guidance suggests
wind gusts mostly in the low 20s, but model soundings show some
higher gust potential within the boundary layer. With this in mind,
trended the winds on the higher end of guidance into the upper 20s.
With the lake commonly overachieving with these sorts of clipper
events, I suspect some low 30 knot winds will even be possible
across the east half Sunday for high reporting platforms. Light
winds should prevail Sunday night and Monday with high pressure
sliding through the region.
A strong system is expected to lift into the Great Lakes Tuesday
into Wednesday. Ahead of the low, increasing southeasterly winds to
20-30 knots are expected Monday night across the east near the
international border. As the low approaches the region Tuesday,
these stronger winds will spread across the lake as winds shift to
the northeast. These strong winds will persist Wednesday, when the
strongest pressure gradient is expected. Some gales will be
possible, mainly across the east half. Recent EC probabilistic
guidance suggests 50-70 percent gusts could exceed 34kts Wednesday.
If this trend continues, a gale watch may be needed in future
forecast packages.
Another system may follow Thursday night/Friday that could again
result in increased winds in the 20s or near 30kts. Beyond this, the
most notable feature is a potential strong storm next weekend
somewhere the Great Lakes. With this system being so far out and
confidence on a track being very low (<10%), its advised to continue
monitoring the forecast if transiting any of the Great Lakes this
weekend.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
351 PM PST Sat Jan 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will continue to bring light to moderate
precipitation in Eastern Washington this afternoon and through
tomorrow (Sunday) morning in North Idaho. A cooling trend is
likely next week along with additional chances for snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...Heavy Cascade Snow, Locally Windy, and Trending Much Colder Next
Week...
Today through Sunday: A Puget sound convergence zone has developed
and is aimed at Stevens Pass early this afternoon aided by WNW winds
aloft and even decent surface instability on the west side. Surface
temperatures in the lowlands on the west side are in the low to mid
40s and 500 mb temperatures are around -35C. Talk about some steep
lapse rates. Short term RAP guidance indicates low to mid level
winds will turn NNW to nearly north in the early evening hours,
shutting down the convergence zone for our area. An additional 2 to
5 inches of snow may fall at the crest through early this evening.
Central Washington has remained quite warm and precip free through
early this afternoon thanks to downsloping winds. Eastern Washington
has been stubborn to clear out. I think its due to an established
surface low that formed east of the Cascades. Fairchild AFB has the
lowest surface pressure east of the Cascades and visible satellite
even shows a small comma head just west of the AFB. High resolution
models have struggled with the evolution of this surface low leading
to a tough forecast. Snow levels turned out to be a larger issue
than previously thought as well with locations downtown being just
wet (so they are higher than I originally thought). 500 mb
temperatures in eastern WA/north ID are still cooling off, but it
appears the precip shield is benefiting from this as precipitation
intensities have held on. The bulk of the precip should be departing
Eastern Washington in the next few hours, so highlights will be
taken down. Some light snow still may occur but road conditions
appear to be good in the region, so it is not a major concern. North
Idaho will hang on to higher precip chances through the evening
since the surface low is still in Eastern WA, so the advisories will
be kept for now. Temperatures will begin to fall into the upper to
mid 20s, ensuring cold enough air for snow everywhere in north ID.
Additional light snow is expected through tomorrow in the ID
Panhandle but is not headline worthy. This was a tough forecast.
db
Monday through Friday: A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for much
of the region as the next system continues to trek across along the
Canadian coastline. The Watch expands over a period of 2 days,
meaning that the snow will accumulate between Monday and Wednesday
morning. The Cascades will see the heaviest snowfall, with
accumulations upwards of 2 to 4 feet during this period, with rates
in excess of 2 inch per hour around Tuesday morning. The valleys are
a big trickier, as temperatures will be hovering right around
freezing for daytime highs. The Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley
will see the lightest snow, with anywhere from a trace to 3 inches.
Eastern Washington will see 4 to 8 inches of snow, but ensembles are
indicating that there is a potential for some localized higher
amounts. For the ID Panhandle, the snow amounts increase again, with
widespread 8 to 12 inches in the valley locations, including CDA. On
top of the snowfall, we are also going to see some increased winds
in the Columbia Basin, Palouse, and Spokane area on Tuesday. Gusts
up to 50 mph are expected. While temperatures will be around
freezing, visibilities will be significantly reduced due with the
snow and rain combination.
Another system will slide into the region, following a similar path
to the first two. This storm will bring additional snow to the
Cascades . This could change as we move closer to the end of the
week as there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the ensembles.
High temperatures will be near freezing to start out the week with
cooling temperatures beginning as early as Wednesday. Ensembles
continue to hint at big changes arriving temperature wise with the
potential for highs in the teens and lows in the single digits above
or below zero. There is some variation in the ensembles, so stay
tuned as we get closer to the end of next week. /KM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: MVFR and occasionally IFR cigs and visibility continue
to be the main concern in Eastern WA/North Idaho for the next 24
hours. Rain and snow showers will impact KPUW-KGEG-KSFF-KCOE
through 03z as well potentially bringing very brief visibility
reductions. After 03z, snow shower activity will be limited to
the Idaho Panhandle. VFR conditions will prevail in central WA but
KEAT will remain breezy this evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for MVFR cigs and visibility in E WA/N ID. Lower confidence in
ceilings behind the last round of rain and snow showers especially
in eastern WA/North ID.
------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 26 32 21 32 30 35 / 30 30 0 80 90 90
Coeur d`Alene 26 31 20 31 29 34 / 60 40 10 80 90 100
Pullman 27 32 23 32 30 36 / 40 40 10 70 100 100
Lewiston 31 40 28 39 36 42 / 40 30 0 50 90 90
Colville 24 33 15 27 24 31 / 60 30 0 80 90 90
Sandpoint 23 33 19 29 28 30 / 70 80 30 90 100 100
Kellogg 26 31 23 31 30 34 / 80 70 50 80 100 100
Moses Lake 27 39 25 33 31 40 / 10 0 0 70 70 60
Wenatchee 28 38 27 32 31 38 / 10 0 0 70 80 80
Omak 27 33 20 32 30 33 / 20 0 0 70 90 80
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-
Northern Panhandle.
Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Wednesday morning
for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho
Palouse-Northern Panhandle.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Lewis and
Southern Nez Perce Counties.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Northeast Blue
Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane
Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Western Chelan
County.
Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Wednesday morning
for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area.
Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Wednesday
morning for Central Chelan County-Western Chelan County-
Western Okanogan County.
&&
$$