Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/02/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
545 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
.DISCUSSION...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Key Messages:
- Small snow chances in the far, far south this evening persist,
mostly in southern portions of Clayton, Grant counties. A couple
tenths of an inch not out of the question.
- Confidence continues to increase in widespread, generally light
snow snow/rain late Saturday evening through the night. Most of the
focus from northeast IA through central/north-central WI. Currently
up to 1" snow expected along/north of I-90 in WI.
- Another shot for light precipitation Mon night/Tue with warming
(albeit brief) for the end of the new work week.
* SNOW CHANCES FAR, FAR SOUTH TONIGHT: mostly holding to far
southern portions of Clayton, IA/Grant, WI counties...with a
dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow possible.
Elongated piece of upper level energy currently stretching from
north of the OH River valley southwest into MO is forcing a band of
pcpn from southeast IA into southeast WI. Another, weaker piece of
energy could track along the same line this evening, helping
continue the band into the overnight hours. Fgen per the RAP
suggests the band should hold just south of the local area, although
might yet skirt into far southern portions of Clayton/Grant
counties. Will continue to paint the pcpn chances in these areas.
Snow amounts generally a trace to 1/2".
* SAT NIGHT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW, RAIN LIKELY: highest chances from
northeast IA through central WI. Snow amounts upwards of 1"
possible
Next shortwave trough on track to kick out of the southern plains,
lifting northeast to across the oh river valley by 12s Sunday. Bits
of upper level energy ripple north of there with perky QG
convergence in the 300:500 layer across NE IA into central WI. The
deeper QG convergence continues to hold south/southeast of the local
area. Upglide along the 285:295 K isentropic sfcs will provide some
low level thermodynamic lift, although more weak to moderate in
intensity. Enough lift, depending on saturation, for pcpn
production. Not much Fgen indicated as the system slides through to
focused banding , although a northwest lying sfc trough front could
continue pcpn chances into Sunday for WI.
As for saturation, soundings and northwest-southeast running x-
sections depict a mid/low level dry layer that will have to be
overcome for any pcpn to make it to the sfc. Current trends saturate
the dry layer Sat evening, with widespread light QPF resulting from
late evening through the overnight for much of the forecast area.
HREF paints 80-100% probabilities for measurable pcpn overnight,
generally from the northeast corner of IA into central/north-central
WI. Probabilities for a 1/10" or more drop off to 40-60%, more
focused on NE IA into central WI. Have increased pcpn chances above
the NBM, which is too low in these lower QPF events. Timing/temps
favor snow in the north, rain/snow mix in the south. Snow focus
mostly in the I-90/I-94 corridors northward in WI, which current
outlay would drop up to 1" in those areas. However, a couple degrees
colder in the south and much/most of that will be snow - which could
flip where the "greater" snow totals are more likely. Of note, the
HREF has a 10 to 30% shot for 2" from southwest into central WI.
Much of what accumulates will fall from late evening through the
overnight.
All said, confidence high in precipitation for much of the area
Saturday night...with snow the main ptype along/north of I-90 (aside
from valley locations). Amounts upwards of 1", but see some nuances
to the forecast where small changes could up those amounts.
Shouldn`t be "headline" worthy, but certainly a scenario that bears
watching with some impacts to travel for late night Sat/Sun morning.
* PCPN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE: looks like mostly snow with minor
accumulations possible.
GFS/EC continue to drop a shortwave upper level trough out of
Canada, spinning across the upper mississippi river valley Mon
night...exiting southeast later in the day Tue. Nearly all of the
GEFS/EPS members paint light QPF with roughly 50-70% chance for at
least 0.01" of liquid equivalent. While most of this should fall as
snow based on temps/timing, light QPF keeps the threat for more than
1" on the low side (less than 20%). That said, the low QPF also is
hindering the NBM from increasing the pcpn chances. Latest model
blend holds a 20-30% for pcpn chances...while based just on QPF
something closer to 40-50% for pcpn chances looks more reasonable.
Expect the model blend to eventually catch up to these higher
chances as we move through the weekend, but some adjustment upward
may be needed. As it looks right now, a widespread light pcpn/low
QPF event continues to be favored.
* LATE WORK WEEK WARMING - still on track, although to varying
degrees. Above normal still trending.
GFS/EC still want to bring a shortwave upper level ridge from the
plains to across the region for the latter half of the new work
week. Some differences with how strong the ridge could be, with the
GEFS/EPS showing a variety of potential outcomes. Clusters still
support the warm up though, and above normal temps continue to be a
solid trend...perhaps moreso in the Thu-Fri time frame. Still
thinking 50 degree highs could occur for some locations.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 544 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
VFR conditions persist until late Saturday morning when MVFR
ceilings move in from the south (60-90% chance). Light,
northwesterly winds turn to the southeast late Saturday morning as
well with a few gusts up to 15 knots likely west of the Mississippi
River. Otherwise, a very quiet period highlighted by high clouds.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION...KAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
953 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
The weak frontal boundary/trough axis was over the offshore waters
and then extended southwest to the lower Texas coast. Some drier
air pushed into the region behind the boundary with dewpoints in
the mid to upper 50s. This boundary may drift back toward the
coast into the near shore waters tonight. This could lead to some
areas of fog forming in this region. Latest SREF probabilities
are very low for fog forming over the inland areas. Latest HRRR
does not show dense fog over this region either. So will keep
areas of fog over the Gulf and just show patchy fog after
midnight for inland areas through early Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
An upper level disturbance/low amplitude 500-mb trough is
expected to move across the Southern Plains/TX and provide
synoptic scale lift late tonight through Saturday afternoon
(GFS/ECMWF 700-300mb Q-vector convergence) over the CWA. Based on
MSAS trends, a weak frontal boundary/trough is located over the
nearshore waters, and has contributed to isolated/scattered
convective activity over the Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads and
adjacent waters. Concur with the deterministic ECMWF/GFS/NAM that
the boundary moves very slowly offshore tonight/early Saturday,
then more rapidly offshore Saturday afternoon as surface high
pressure builds over the CWA from the west/northwest. Will concur
with surrounding WFOs and dissipate precipitation over the CWA
before 06z Saturday, a solution based on the expectation that
precipitation will remain along/east of the boundary. Caveat,
upper forcing/near normal PWAT values may result in isolated
elevated convection over the eastern CWA/adjacent waters
overnight/early Saturday. Anticipate patchy/areas of fog over the
CWA 09-14z Saturday (NAM deterministic run predicts a moist
surface-950mb layer, light surface wind, and much drier aloft, yet
low probability for fog per the SREF). Based on the recent
trends, expect tide level at Aransas Pass remain below 1.8ft MSL
during the upcoming high tidal cycle, and thus will not hoist a
CFW. Decided to extend the Moderate risk of rip currents to
tonight, owing to recent 8s swell period/6 ft swell heights at
42019.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
The weather in the longer term looks relatively quiet through next
Friday, as high pressure begins to take control. Sunday, with the
cold front offshore, the high pressure begins to move into the rest
of the forecast area, and out into the Gulf. Winds will diminish
through the day, especially offshore. The moisture with this high
looks to be fairly dry with PWAT values around 0.24" at KCRP and
remaining below 1.00" through Monday. Moisture does increase to
around 1.00" and remains around that level (around the median for
this time of year) through Thursday. Tuesday was initially a
concern, with past runs, but the disturbance that was trying to push
north, looks to remain far enough south, not to mention not enough
moisture, that Tuesday will remain dry. Friday is the only other
chance for precipitation when a disturbance moves up from the south.
The GFS is the only deterministic model that has it. The ECMWF and
CMC are dry, and most of the members are dry. So will go with the
NBM slight chance (15-20%) for the Victoria Crossroads and the
northern Coastal Bend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
MVFR ceilings will hold over the coastal region behind the weak
front/trough over the coastal waters this evening, while VFR
ceilings will exist farther inland over the inland coastal plains
to the eastern Brush Country. Cirrus deck will cover the Brush
Country this evening. Fog with MVFR vsbys expected to develop by
06Z Saturday for the coastal region with MVFR ceilings drifting
inland. Ceilings should lower to IFR by 10Z over the coastal
plains with fog over some areas in the Coastal Bend limiting vsbys
to IFR through 14Z. Drier air will move into the region Saturday
morning as winds turn to the northwest. Ceilings will improve to
MVFR by mid morning and be VFR by early afternoon as clouds clear
out, except for Victoria Crossroads where MVFR ceilings will
linger into the latter part of the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Expect isolated/scattered convection to continue this evening near
a weak frontal boundary currently over the nearshore waters.
Patchy to areas of sea fog expected tonight/early Saturday.
Whether dense fog occurs is highly uncertain. Drier conditions are
expected by Saturday afternoon, as surface high pressure builds
from the west/northwest. Isolated/scattered convection may develop
again Saturday, mainly over the offshore waters, as the weak
frontal boundary combines with an upper level disturbance.
Sunday, the winds offshore are expected to continue 15 to 20 knots
but diminish through the day as high pressure takes control of
the region. Sunday evening, winds are generally expected to be
less than 15 knots which will allow seas to decrease to 2 feet or
less through the middle of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 59 76 53 75 / 20 10 0 0
Victoria 54 74 49 74 / 20 10 0 0
Laredo 56 75 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
Alice 56 76 50 77 / 10 0 0 0
Rockport 57 72 55 73 / 30 10 0 0
Cotulla 53 76 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 59 76 52 75 / 20 10 0 0
Navy Corpus 62 74 59 72 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT/89
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...TMT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
436 PM MST Fri Dec 1 2023
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 210 PM MST Fri Dec 1 2023
Key Messages:
-High confidence in a large high-elevation snow event starting
tonight and lasting through the weekend in the Sierra Madre and
Snowy ranges.
-High confidence in a prolonged high-wind event for the I-80 and
I-25 corridors also starting tonight and lasting through
Monday. Wind gusts over 60 mph are also possible in the high
basins of Wyoming and in the high plains east of I-25.
-High confidence in below-average temperatures through the
short-term for the entire forecast area.
Discussion:
The short-term forecast remains on track today. Excellent model
agreement both in time and space continued today in the 12z
deterministic and ensemble guidance package, both with regard to
the expected mountain snowfall and the likelihood for high winds
across much of southeast Wyoming. Afternoon radar data from KCYS
indicates high-elevation snowfall has already begun. This has
been verified on higher-elevation webcams today. As the evening
progresses and the stream of Pacific moisture directed toward
the region thickens and broadens aloft, expect snow to slowly
spread into lower elevations of the Sierra Madre and Snowy
Ranges. Meanwhile, surface wind speeds will increase through the
evening and overnight across the Wyoming wind corridors.
Increasing low-level gradients and strong west to northwesterly
flow will support this high wind event. A favorable setup for
downslope winds will be in place for much of southeast Wyoming
east of I-25. In-house Machine-Learning guidance continues to
support proportionally high probabilities of gusts over 60 mph,
even spreading into the Cheyenne-proper area by Saturday night.
Therefore, have upgraded the prior high wind watch to a high
wind warning for several zones in southeast Wyoming including
the south Laramie Range and foothills, Cheyenne itself, as well
as points along and east of I-25 to the Nebraska border. Out
west, strong gradient flow and potent winds aloft will also
support a threat for gusts over 60 mph in the Rawlins to
Sinclair corridor. Have added a high wind warning for these
locations as well, concurrent with the timing of the Cheyenne
warning.
In the mountains, the snow forecast has been locked-in
for several guidance cycles now as moist westerly flow aloft
slams into the higher terrain. This west to just slightly
northwest flow pattern strongly favors the Sierra Madre and Park
ranges, and closely resembles many past heavy- snow events in
this region. Therefore, forecast confidence in the posted snow
totals is quite high. The Snowy Range will see slightly less due
to the Sierra Madres consuming some of the moisture/adding a
downslope component, but these locations should still do quite
well and forecast confidence is quite high. The only remaining
question in the short term is with regard to the potential for a
brief banded snow event early on Sunday morning. As a stronger
region of convergence and weak frontogenesis sags southward,
some high- res guidance is suggesting a narrow enhanced region
of snow may develop and drift south from the Shirley Basin
through the Laramie Basin and eventually to the I-80 corridor
by around 8-12z. The HRRR is particularly aggressive with this
feature and has shown it in several runs, with other guidance
such as the NAM Nest and FV3 favoring a more broad and weak
band. Have enhanced PoPs during this time in these regions in
this forecast package. Will have to monitor this feature in
subsequent guidance runs for adjustments to the forecast and
resultant effects on anyone traveling early Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday - Friday)
Issued at 210 PM MST Fri Dec 1 2023
The main focus of the long term forecast remains the continuation
extended period of strong winds and mountain snow for Sunday and
Monday, leading into a mid-week warm up.
The synoptic weather pattern setting up this week will drive the
extended period of strong winds and mountain snow continuing into
early next week. We`ll have a broad longwave trough over central
Canada along with a shallow, dirty ridge over the west coast.
Abundant moisture flowing off of the Pacific and into the
northwestern CONUS over the top of the ridge will lead to mountain
snowfall across the northern Rockies. While this overall pattern
will be fairly stagnant (though of course the wind will not be), a
series of shortwaves moving over the top of the ridge are expected
to lead to fluctuations in the wind, mountain snowfall intensity,
and local surface temperatures.
A stronger shortwave will make a closer approach on Sunday. The
associated surface trough sliding across our High Plains early
Sunday morning will peak the low-level pressure gradients, which are
then expected to decrease temporarily during the day Sunday. Moist
northwest flow aloft in the left exit region of a ~120 knot jet with
a frontal boundary in the area will likely lead to an expansion of
snow shower coverage into the plains. This should not be all that
widespread, but added in the mention of snow showers to most areas
for Sunday morning due to uncertainty in the exact location of the
developing activity. Additionally, higher pressure building in
behind the surface trough will lead to a temporary break in the very
strong winds during the day on Sunday. This can`t really be
described as a lull since it will still be windy for much of the
area, but probabilities for hitting high wind (58 MPH or greater)
decrease to mainly 40% or lower for a brief period. This will be
fairly short lived as the shortwave moves further off to the east
late on Sunday and the ridge expands eastward into the Rockies. The
jet streak aloft shifts overhead and then puts our area in a more
favorable region for descent just as gradients start to climb again.
Forecast soundings also show a mountain-top inversion developing
indicating good potential for mountain wave breaking and downslope
enhancement. Thus, expecting winds to surge once again Sunday night
into early Monday across the area. Could see wind gusts easily
reaching the 70 to 80 MPH for the wind prone areas in particular.
While the strongest winds are expected Sunday night into the early
morning Monday, probabilities for high wind remain high through the
day on Monday. Another shortwave moving over the top of the ridge
will make its closest approach Monday evening (though further to the
northeast than Sunday`s wave), after which time pressure rises over
the plains should reduce the cross-barrier pressure gradient and
finally start to reduce the strength and coverage of the wind. The
ridge starting to shift east will also lead to a noticeable warm up
on Monday as 700-mb temperature rapidly climb back up to between -4C
and 0C. While the large-scale forcing for high winds wanes by early
Tuesday, most guidance maintains fairly tight cross-barrier MSLP
gradients through much of the week ahead. Therefore, strong winds
may continue through much of the week in the typical gap areas,
though the magnitude should be lower than Saturday through Monday.
As the ridge continues to shift eastward and centers itself over the
Rockies, expect a warming trend to continue. Tuesday may be just
slightly warmer than Monday with the warming trend delayed by the
passage of the shortwave to our northeast. However, there is decent
agreement on 700-mb temperatures climbing above +5C by Wednesday,
leading to well-above average temperatures for the area. There is a
bit of uncertainty for Thursday and Friday with some ensemble
members bringing another shortwave in closer and knocking down
temperatures back closer to normal, while others keep this feature
further north and continue the warm streak.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1004 AM MST Fri Dec 1 2023
Looking like mostly quiet, VFR conditions at most terminals
overnight. KRWL could see some lower CIGs and some scattered snow
showers tonight. This could lead to periods of MVFR conditions.
Tomorrow, the main concern will be gusty winds, mainly in southeast
Wyoming. Winds could gust over 40 kts at times.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 5 AM Saturday to 2 AM MST Tuesday for
WYZ106-110-115>117.
High Wind Warning from 5 PM Saturday to 5 PM MST Monday for
WYZ107-109-118-119.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Sunday for WYZ112-114.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...SF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
551 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Minor threat for flurries/sprinkles Saturday across southern
Nebraska with no accumulations or impacts expected.
- Temperatures warm back to seasonal values on Sunday with
breezy northwest wind gusts of 35 to 40 miles per hour.
- Dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures in the 50s
and 60s return next week with occasional periods of breezy
winds (gusts of 20 to 35 mph).
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Recent GOES-16 WV and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a closed low
pressure system retrograding out of the Hudson Bay into the
Northwest Territories with a trough extending into the Canadian
Maritimes. Further west of this feature, another upper-level closed
low pressure system was apparent over the Gulf of Alaska with a
trough extending across the Peninsula of Washington State. An upper-
level ridge was actively breaking down over Alberta in between the
two closed lows. A broad upper-level trough extends across the lower
two thirds of the CONUS with multiple embedded shortwaves noted. All
of these features combined has led to southwesterly flow aloft
across western and north central Nebraska. At the surface, a leeside
trough was extending across the Front Range. Surface high pressure
was centered over the Great Lakes into the Upper Midwest, seeping
into the northern Plains. At 2 PM CT, temperatures ranged from
32 degrees at Thedford to 35 degrees at North Platte under mostly
cloudy skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
The broad upper-level trough will emerge out of the Rockies with the
trough axis centering across the Plains early Saturday with a
surface trough moving through western Nebraska and attendant
warm front across the southern Plains. Increased PV anomalies
aloft traversing along the base of the trough and the surface
trough bisecting the area will result in weak forcing. This
forcing may tap into the meager available moisture to create
flurries/sprinkles across far southwest into south central
Nebraska Saturday morning into the mid-afternoon hours.
Forecaster confidence is rather low on this potential as given
the amount of dry air aloft that is being forecast by some model
solutions. Any flurries/sprinkles that do reach the ground are
expected not to result in any accumulations or impacts. The same
may not potentially be said for our neighbors to the south and
southeast where some model solutions are suggesting a narrow
swath (or swaths) of minor accumulating snow (1 to 2" at most)
may set up across portions of their areas. However, the model
solutions that paint this picture are struggling to agree on
where it may set up. At this time, the models that do depict
this keep the swath just to the southeast of our forecast area.
Cannot completely rule out the potential of this bisecting
portions of far southwest into south central portions of our
forecast area, though confidence is rather low given the run to
run differences amongst the models.
Outside of these precipitation chances, daytime temperatures will
climb into the 40s on Saturday with gradually clearing skies
behind the departing system. Clear skies and quiet conditions
prevail overnight on Saturday with forecast lows in the low 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Another day of seasonal highs in the 40s are expected on Sunday
ahead of a period of abnormally warm temperatures through the week.
A surface cold front will sweep across the area on Sunday resulting
in northwesterly winds to strengthen behind the frontal passage as
the surface pressure gradient (SPG) tightens. Widespread gusts of 30
to 40 miles per hour are expected to be felt across western and
north central Nebraska. Locally higher gusts up to 45 miles per hour
are possible across the western Sandhills into southwest Nebraska,
coinciding with where the tightest gradient is expected. These gusty
winds will quickly subside Sunday evening, increasing again during
the day on Monday, though not on the same magnitude as Sunday. The
SPG tightens again on Monday as a surface low drops south out of
central Canada and surface high pressure holds strong over the
southern Plains. Northwest wind gusts up to 35 miles per hour are
expected with the strongest of winds impacting our neighbors to the
west.
An upper-level ridge will begin to build in from the west on Monday
with the ridge axis bisecting the Plains by mid-week. The upper-
level ridge will flatten some towards the end of the weak due to
multiple weak shortwaves tracking across the CONUS, resulting in a
transition to zonal flow aloft locally. This pattern will lead to a
period of dry and unseasonably warm temperatures in the 50s
and 60s through the week. The signal for unseasonably warm
temperatures is supported by both the NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble
guidance which is suggesting that the mean temperature at H85-5
will meet or exceed the 90th climatological percentile
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Furthermore, the ECMWF EFI
(Extreme Forecast Index) has begun to show increased confidence
of anomalous event, such that the SoT (Shift of Tails) is
nonzero across portions of the northern Plains for the latter
end of the week. Refer to the Climate Discussion for further
information.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 551 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday with ceilings remaining
well above 10 kft. Southeast winds will also remain under 10 knots
keeping aviation concerns to a minimum.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Wednesday, December 6th is forecast to be the warmest day of
the unseasonably warm temperatures next week. To put this into
perspective...
December 6
| Fcst. | Avg. | Record |
North Platte | 63 | 44 | 76 (1939) |
Valentine | 64 | 42 | 73 (1939) |
Broken Bow | 62 | 39 | 77 (1939) |
Imperial | 67 | 44 | 79 (1939) |
Though we may not be hitting the record highs that occurred back
in 1939, these temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees above the
climatological normal for the beginning of December.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Viken
SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...Kulik
CLIMATE...Viken
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
630 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Surface observations and satellite imagery reveal a mix of VFR to
LIFR conditions across the area this evening. Ceilings will
continue to lower to IFR and LIFR area wide through the evening
as another round of widespread showers and storms moves into the
area. Rain chances increase around or shortly after midnight and
will linger into the day Saturday. Patchy dense sea fog also becomes
possible along the Alabama coast and may spread into coastal
areas especially after midnight, which could reduce ceilings and
visibility significantly late tonight into Saturday morning.
Conditions should improve slightly to MVFR and IFR through the
day Saturday. /14
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 447 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023/
..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday Night)
Issued at 446 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
A messy and still somewhat uncertain weather pattern continues
across the region tonight through Saturday night. The anticipated
first round of showers and storms moved across the region this
morning and is now east of the area. Still some patches of lingering
rain and light showers, but for the most part we are expecting
generally rain-free conditions into this evening.
The HiRes models are all indicating redevelopment of showers and
storms across our area tonight through Saturday, but uncertainties
remain as to the timing and coverage. The Global models, as well as
the HRRR and WRF-ARW, indicate storms and showers beginning to
develop to our west as a series of weak shortwaves lift northeast
across the area in the southwesterly flow aloft and over a warm and
moist airmass east of a surface front that will remain nearly
stationary to the west of our area through Saturday. The NAM 3KM
actually indicates both the development to our west as well as a
robust development along the marine warm front that is situated just
offshore of our area. Regardless of when and where exact coverages
of precipitation will be, pattern supports categorical PoPs from
late tonight through the near term period.
As such, a heavy rainfall threat will continue across our area
through late Saturday. If the NAM 3KM verifies, we could easily see
3 to 5 inches of total rainfall in the near term period, particularly
over the western FL panhandle counties and a sliver of south central
AL. Current highest QPF numbers, advertising the totals just noted,
is over this same general area and after coordination with WPC we
opted to introduce a SLIGHT Risk of excessive rainfall for those
areas. Heavy rainfall threat is a little lower over inland areas,
but still looking for an additions 1-2 inches there. Since todays
storm total rainfall was mostly less than 1 inch across our area, we
will not be issuing any Flash Flood products with this afternoons
forecast package, but will continue to monitor for that
potential.
There continues to be a conditional severe threat into Saturday
as well, although that will be a rather limited threat. While
ample shear and MLCAPE will be present, particularly nearer the
coast, storms may struggle to become severe thanks to extensive
storm interactions across the area, deep layer moisture and poor
lapse rates. The deep layer moisture will limit downburst
potential, and DCAPES remain rather low. The presence of the
surface marine warm front just offshore could be enough of a focus
for storms to organize and be capable of a possible brief
tornado, but this will be highly conditional as to whether or not
the marine boundary moves onshore or not. Further inland, the
threat seems much more conditional and likely limited to an
isolated instance of strong to damaging wind gusts. Without a
surface boundary to focus things, any tornado threat should remain
confined more to the coast. The overall threat is very low, but
SPC maintains the blanket MARGINAL Risk over our area for Saturday
for the reasons just noted.
The only other concern will be fog potential. Water temperatures
have sufficiently cooled into the upper 50`s to lower 60`s, and with
lower 70`s dewpoints being advected over this we could see a
favorable setup for sea fog development across the MS Sound into
Mobile Bay this evening, which would have significant visibility
impacts to immediate coastal communities. Some of this fog may
develop inland overnight, especially over the western half of our
forecast area. We have included the potential for patchy fog,
possibly dense in some locations, for the coastal and western
portions of our forecast area for tonight. Due to uncertainties we
will let the overnight shifts decided as to whether a Dense Fog
Advisory will be needed. /12
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
We transition out of the wet pattern and back into a cooler and
drier pattern late this weekend and through next week.
The tail end of the band of rain will be exiting the area through
the morning hours on Sunday as a cold front ushers in much drier air
and surface ridging begins to nudge into the area. Meanwhile, a
shortwave aloft pivots into the Midwest on Sunday as a ridge remains
anchored over the southern Gulf and Caribbean. Another shortwave
quickly slides into the Plains through the day on Sunday on the
heels of the initial shortwave. That secondary shortwave strengthens
as it pivots across the Midwest on Monday. A reinforcing, dry front
(associated with the second shortwave) slips across the region on
Monday. Flow aloft briefly turns zonal through Tuesday night in the
wake of the second shortwave and a surface high builds overhead. Yet
another dry front in the seemingly never-ending parade of cold
fronts will dive across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday before
a surface ridge builds into the region through the end of the work
week. We will likely remain in this dry pattern until the following
Monday.
Daytime temperatures become more seasonable early next week, while
somewhat cooler by mid-week (highs in the 50s) in the wake of the
cold fronts. Lows will be chilly next week with the coldest
temperatures occurring Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
lows plunging into the 30s across much of the area (low 40s at the
beaches). 07/mb
MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Moderate to occasionally strong southeast to southerly flow persists
today, becoming moderate for the weekend. Winds will likely remain
as SCEC level offshore tonight through Saturday, which will be
hazardous for small craft. Winds and seas will also be locally
higher near showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will move east
across the marine area late Saturday and early Sunday, with a of a
moderate offshore flow becoming established Sunday night into the
early part of next week. /12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 64 74 62 70 51 66 42 64 / 100 100 90 20 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 67 74 65 71 55 66 46 63 / 100 100 90 40 0 0 0 0
Destin 67 75 66 74 57 69 49 65 / 90 90 100 50 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 62 75 60 72 46 67 37 64 / 90 100 90 30 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 62 72 57 69 48 63 38 64 / 90 100 60 10 0 0 0 0
Camden 62 71 59 68 46 62 37 61 / 90 100 80 20 0 0 0 0
Crestview 63 74 62 74 47 68 39 65 / 100 100 100 50 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1052 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
Pretty steady nearest term forecast with really only the aviation
elements that need loaded with the latest guidance. Have otherwise
blended recent obs with the forecast for a better trend.
Moisture trapped at the surface is causing calm surface
conditions with patchy dense fog in spots. We`re not anticipating
widespread dense fog overnight, so we currently find an SPS or FGY
unnecessary. But will continue to monitor trends the next few
hours. Still expecting precip to fill in and increase from the
south due to reasons explained below.
KS
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
Key Messages:
1. Continued dreary conditions through the short term period.
2. Next round of widespread rainfall moves in during the early
morning hours tomorrow, lasting much of the day.
Discussion:
Broad southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the short term
period, extending from southwest Texas and northern Mexico,
northeastward into the mid-Atlantic seaboard areas. Rainfall
associated with a departing shortwave has been rapidly diminishing
in coverage this afternoon. Low levels remain very saturated
however, and while not positioned in a favorable quadrant for jet
induced lift, an H3 jet will remain just to our northwest this
afternoon and tonight. As such, wouldn`t be surprised to see some
occasional periods of drizzle through the afternoon and overnight
hours before the next shortwave brings more widespread rainfall
back to the CWA.
Speaking of, the next disturbance lifts northeast out of Louisiana
beginning around midnight and moves through the southern
Appalachians shortly after daybreak. Meanwhile, a stronger digging
trough will begin to shift east through the southern plains
tomorrow as well. NBM PoPs increase rapidly across the CWA during
the early morning hours tomorrow, lasting through the day as jet
support increases in response to that plains trough. This seems
ok, but wouldn`t be surprised if there`s a prolonged lull in rain
chances tomorrow afternoon. Additionally, the initial shortwave
tightens up the H85 wind field a bit tomorrow morning and backs
the winds to the southeast during that time. Winds aren`t strong
enough to warrant any headlines, but do think there will be some
low end mountain wave action over the Smokies. Could see Cove
Mountain hitting advisory levels for a brief time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 302 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
Key Messages:
1. Rain chances persist Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Conditions will become mostly dry through next week, however, light
precip will be possible for a brief period both Monday and
Wednesday.
2. Cooler air and northwest flow gives way to the potential for
accumulating snowfall in higher elevations Wednesday.
Discussion:
Overall, the long term period consists of numerous upper level
disturbances translating through the mean flow. For Saturday night
into Sunday, the first shortwave will lift northeast out of the
central CONUS and into the Great Lakes region. Upper level
divergence will result in a developing 1000mb surface low just to
our ENE. Southwesterly H85 flow and associated isentropic lift will
bring continued chances for precipitation and plenty of cloud cover
for the first half of Sunday.
During this time, PWAT will hover at or just above the 90th
percentile based out of BNA. NAM soundings suggest a few hundred
J/kg of MUCAPE will be possible, and as a result we cannot rule out
a rumble of thunder or two. Regarding QPF, generally light
accumulations are expected in a broad sense. However, 12Z HRRR and
NBM both hint at a possibility of locally higher totals with any
convectively enhanced showers. One uncertainty to this will be
potential activity to our south. Some models such as the NAM suggest
a greater precip shield over east central Georgia. This oftentimes
acts to cutoff moisture feed into our region and if this is the case
convectively enhanced totals would be unlikely. Overall, there still
remains notable uncertainty in the QPF forecast. Both clouds and
PoPs will gradually improve Sunday afternoon, hopefully allowing for
a little bit of sunshine before the night.
Monday and into mid-week, two additional disturbances will make an
appearance. The first being Monday and the second Wednesday.
Moisture will be significantly more limited with these disturbances
and less than a tenth of an inch QPF is expected Monday, with precip
chances focused along and north of I-40 in closer proximity to
forcing. For Wednesday, a northwest flow pattern sets up as
troughing lifts northeast. Light snow accumulations are a
possibility in the higher elevations of E TN and SW VA. Currently
GFS and ECMWF mean ensemble guidance suggest a 40-70% chance of snow
GTE 1 inch in the highest elevations.
With shortwaves resulting in enhanced flow at H85, winds will also
be breezy during afternoon mixing hours Sunday through Wednesday. An
end to the breezy conditions will pair with a warming trend as upper
level heights increase late week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
Admittedly a very complicated aviation forecast the next 24
hours. CIGS are expected to remain below VFR standards at this
time, especially at CHA and TYS. CHA and TYS will bounce between
LIFR and IFR even when rains arrive again before daybreak. TRI,
although VFR right now, may become complicated during the
overnight hours when downslope picks up over the Southern
Appalachians, paired with CIGS lowering and rains approaching as
well. Not all too confident in what will occur there, as far as
the lowest flight category they might fall to this issuance.
Compared to the other two sites, they appear will have the best
conditions tonight and into tomorrow. PROBS have been added for
possible lower VSBY and CIGS during the height of the next wave of
precip.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 63 59 66 / 50 90 80 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 62 57 65 / 30 90 80 40
Oak Ridge, TN 52 61 55 65 / 20 90 80 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 61 54 63 / 10 80 80 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
157 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023
.Synopsis...
Precipitation chances remain in forecast through the weekend;
latest rainfall/snowfall totals have trended up. Drying and
warming trend expected early next week before shower chances
return Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.Discussion...
Current radar analysis is showing some light returns over Shasta
and Tehama counties this afternoon, however most precipitation is
not reaching the ground. There has been 0.01" inches of rainfall
reported at the Redding Airport. Most precipitation is forecasted
to remain over far northern Sac Valley counties and the Cascades
and Sierra for the remainder of the day. Could see some very light
snowfall accumulations (dusting up to an inch) at pass levels as
we progress into the evening.
For this weekend, recent model runs of the National Blend of
Models (NBM) rainfall totals and snowfall totals have trended
upwards, especially for the far northern counties of the area
(Shasta and Tehama) and the Sierra. Short range models such as the
NAM and HRRR have suggested a stronger trough digging further
south into the aforementioned areas and bring higher water vapor
content with them, so forecasted rainfall and snowfall totals for
the weekend have been adjusted higher. The NBM currently has a
60-80% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 0.50` inches from
Redding northwards and a general 30-70% chance for the Sierra.
Snowfall totals for the Sierra and higher elevations have also
increased. For the Northern Sierra at Pass levels, there is a
general 2-6" inches of snowfall currently forecasted, slightly
below any advisory criteria, however hazardous driving conditions
may occur and chain controls may be necessary. The NBM has about a
50% chance for Lassen National Park to receive 8` inches or more
of snowfall and a 35% chance of exceeding 10" inches or more
snowfall. This system moves out of the area on Sunday afternoon
and the troughing pattern will exit off to the east, and will be
replaced by upper level ridging for Monday and Tuesday.
With the ridging pattern taking over the airmass for our area,
high temperatures will slightly warm and will help keep us
relatively dry. The ridge will keep precipitation chances mainly
to the north of our area in Oregon and Washington. High
temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 60s for Valley
locations and mid 50s for higher terrain.
Wood
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...
Dry and mild weather under ridging will give way early next week, with
clusters showing the ridge shifting east of the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. A shortwave with a cold front is currently expected to
approach Tuesday/Tuesday night. Some light precipitation is
possible ahead of this system over the northern Coastal Range and
Shasta County as early as Tuesday, but confidence in specific
timing of the onset of precipitation remains low. Precipitation
coverage and potential amounts will likely be increasing across
the region Wednesday through late next week, though current
projections suggest much of the precipitation will be over the
mountains and north of Interstate 80. There is the potential for
some late week snow, but clusters indicate quite a bit of
uncertainty on the strength and timing of the incoming trough, so
confidence is low on any details at this point. Stay tuned for
more details as this system approaches. //EK
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours
except for local MVFR BR/HZ in the southern Sacramento and
northern San Joaquin valleys and over the northern Sierra in snow
showers, both through around 18Z Saturday. Light rain is possible
near KRDD and KRBL through 03Z this evening. Surface wind gusts
generally below 12 kts. //EK
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
803 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 759 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
The main change to the overnight hours was to issue a Small Craft
Advisory as stronger winds have developed along the panhandle
coast and just offshore in association with a large area of rain
and embedded thunderstorms well offshore. Case in point, the 00z
KPAM METAR showed a sustained wind of 23 knots with gusts to 32
knots. The recent HRRR runs as well as the 18z GFS show these
stronger winds persisting offshore through the night, which was
the justification used to issue the Small Craft Advisory.
Otherwise, no changes were made to the Flood Watch area. There is
still uncertainty with where the heaviest rain will develop, i.e.
further north in southeast Alabama, or pinned along the coast. The
complex of storms currently located just offshore of Louisiana will
be Saturday`s weather. Heavier rain will likely start moving into
the Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama from the west as we get
closer to sunrise.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
Initial wave of showers and thunderstorms straddling a warm front
along the AL/FL border should diminish early this evening. A High
Shear Low CAPE (HSLC) environment exists with 40 kts of Bulk Shear
and SB CAPE up to 500 J/kg. The EOX/EVX profilers, when a backed
southeast surface wind is taken into account, are showing SRH (0-1
km) of 200-300 units. With LCLs AOB 500 meters, this is supportive
of a brief tornado threat, in addition to strong gusty winds. SPC
shows a Marginal risk of severe weather for portions of Southeast
AL and the Western FL Panhandle through the overnight hours. While
additional strong storms cannot be ruled out beyond this evening
into the overnight hours with strong speed and directional shear,
greater instability would be needed, with the best chance closer
to the FL Panhandle coast.
Otherwise, attention turns to increasing heavy rainfall threat,
especially late tonight into Saturday. Anomalously moist air mass
overspreads the region on the nose of a 40 knot low-level jet,
with PWAT increasing to around 2.0 inches, which is near the max
of the TAE Sounding Climatology. Expect multiple rounds of heavy
rainfall with the potential for severe weather as well. There is
uncertainty regarding the axis of heaviest rainfall, i.e, closer
to the gulf coast across the FL Panhandle or extending into SE
Alabama. This will be dependent on boundaries which are yet to
be resolved. Regardless, there is the potential for excessive
rainfall leading to flooding across this area, including the far
western FL Big Bend, where a Flood Watch is now in effect thru
Sunday evening.
There is the potential for a low end severe weather threat on
Saturday. Another High Shear Low CAPE (HSLC) environment looks
to take shape. In particular, guidance indicates a somewhat
favorable overlap of instability and low-level SRH in portions
of the FL Panhandle into SE Alabama, where storms will have
to be watched closely for a brief tornado and isolated damaging
wind gusts.
Given flooding and severe weather threats on Saturday, especially
across portions of Southeast Alabama into the FL Panhandle, those
with outdoor events should be weather aware of the latest forecast,
have multiple ways to receive warnings, and adjust your plans as
necessary.
Overnight lows will remain steady or slowly fall into the low and
mid-60s. Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid-70s. An
increasingly humid air mass will overspread the region with dew
points rising into the mid-60s to around 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
A line of showers and a few thunderstorms remains possible Saturday
night into Sunday morning as the cold front finally begins to push
through the Southeast. Ample moisture remains available for this
line with precipitable water values (PWATs) forecast to remain near
or slightly above the 90th percentile, or 1.5" to 1.7", for early
December. So there could be some torrential downpours embedded
within the line as it moves from west to east across the region.
With regards to severe potential, there is enough support with the
850mb jet still overhead, 0-3km Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) of 150-
200m2/s2, and Mid-Level CAPE (MLCAPE) of generally less than 500
J/kg. So an isolated damaging wind gust cannot be totally ruled out
Saturday night into Sunday.
Outside of the showers and storms in the forecast, fog may be a
concern Saturday night for portions of the Florida Big Bend and
along the I-75 corridor in Georgia. Ensemble guidance is showing a
60 to 80 percent chance for visibility less than 1 mile. So that`s
something to be monitored going forward.
As the line pushes through during the day Sunday, a lingering shower
or two remains possible before the cold front fully clears the
region Sunday night.
Temperatures are expected to go from the middle to upper 60s Friday
night to the lower to middle 70s Sunday afternoon. The cold front
then swings through and allows lows to drop into the lower to middle
50s Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
The long term period will feature the passage of a couple of cold
fronts, one Monday and another Wednesday, that will keep the period
near to slightly below normal for the middle of next week. Not much,
if any, rain is expected with either of the frontal passages.
Daytime highs are forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Monday, lower to middle 60s Tuesday, and upper 50s to lower 60s
Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows also show a similar trend
with lower to middle 40s Monday and Tuesday night before dipping
into the middle to upper 30s Wednesday and Thursday nights.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 759 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
Conditions will gradually deteoriate through the period as ceilings
lower and rain increases ahead of an approaching cold front. The
worst conditions are expected at ECP and DHN with IFR to LIFR
lasting through much of the period and rain increasing in intensity
on Saturday. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will gradually transition to
IFR with the chance of rain also increasing during the day on
Saturday. Some low-level wind shear also cannot be ruled out
tonight, but confidence remains too low to include explicitly at
this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 759 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
An area of rain and a few thunderstorms moving across the coastal
waters is expected to contribute to a period of stronger winds
around 20 knots with higher gusts overnight. Thus, a small craft
advisory has been issued for most of the coastal waters through
mid morning Saturday.
Otherwise, several showers and thunderstorms are expected through
the weekend, some of which may produce gusty winds and waterspouts.
The storm system and associated cold front is slated to swing
through Sunday night into Monday, turning winds to the northwest to
north much of next week. Additionally, a bit of sea fog is possible
in Apalachee Bay later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
Soaking rains are expected on Saturday and may linger into Sunday,
especially across portions of Southeast Alabama and the Western
FL Panhandle, where flooding is possible. Pockets of low dispersions
are likely both days. A cold frontal passage on Sunday will usher
in a drier air mass for Monday, with brisk westerly transport winds
and moderate dispersions.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
A Flood Watch is now in effect until 00Z Monday (7PM EST/6PM CST
Sunday) for the Florida Panhandle, western Florida Big Bend, and
Southeast Alabama. This is due to the potential for multiple rounds
of torrential rainfall through the weekend. Hi-res model guidance
continues to paint a very wet picture, especially in the Florida
Panhandle, for later tonight into early Saturday morning. Additional
rain is possible later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and
again Sunday. By the time all is said and done, the most likely
totals are generally forecast to be between 3" to 6" for areas west
of the Apalachicola River; locally higher amounts of 6"+ are
possible, especially in parts of Walton, Bay, and Washington
Counties. Additionally, rain rates of 3"/hr to 4"/hr are possible,
which could lead to localized flooding, especially in urban, low-
lying, and poor drainage areas. Outside of the Flood Watch,
rainfall totals are generally expected to be between 1" to 3",
with lower amounts of less than 1" forecast for the southeastern
FL Big Bend.
It`s worth noting that with most of the plants having gone dormant,
runoff into area waterways will be more than usual. This could cause
a faster than usual response with respect to not only flash flood
potential, but also riverine flooding potential. With widespread
rainfall totals in the 3" to 6" range across the Florida Panhandle
and Southeast Alabama, area rivers will be monitored in the coming
days for any move into Action Stage, maybe even Minor Flood Stage.
Some rivers to monitor include the Choctawhatchee River, Pea River,
and Apalachicola River, among others.
NOTE: If the area of heavier rain falls more across Southeastern
Alabama, or the northern Florida Panhandle, then the riverine
response would be greater than if the heaviest rain fell along
the immediate coast.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 63 73 66 74 / 60 50 80 70
Panama City 66 74 66 73 / 90 70 80 70
Dothan 64 71 64 71 / 90 90 80 60
Albany 63 71 65 72 / 70 80 80 70
Valdosta 61 74 67 75 / 40 40 70 70
Cross City 62 78 67 77 / 20 10 60 60
Apalachicola 67 73 66 72 / 60 60 80 70
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for FLZ007>016-026-108-112-
114.
High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...None.
AL...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ALZ065>069.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Saturday for
GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Reese/DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Reese
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
904 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 904 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
PErsistent low level stratus on the back side of the exiting upper
low that brought showers and storms to the area is forecast to
stick around through much of the night across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. Thus, have opted to increase low temperatures
tonight from the previous forecasts as latest trends have been
mostly steady. Lows tonight will likely stay mostly in the upper
30s to near 40 for much of the area, with the exception of
southeast Oklahoma where clearing will allow for temps to drop
into the mid 30s. Some late clearing from the northwest could also
allow temps to drop into the mid to low 30s to the northwest of
I-44 by sunrise tomorrow. Additionally, light winds and good
ground moisture content will likely lead to some patchy fog
development, especially across far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas...and anywhere where more notable clearing takes place
before tomorrow morning. Therefore, for the update tonight, have
added in the mention of patchy fog across far eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas through tomorrow morning with further
adjustments possibly needed as cloud cover obs evolve.
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 211 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
A few rain showers will be possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
as a mid-level shortwave moves across the area.
In general, the forecast for next week will be rather benign despite
cold fronts moving through the area Sunday and again on Tuesday. Temperatures
are expected to be near or above seasonal normals next week with a
warming trend late in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Ceiling heights will continue to be challenging, especially in the
first half of the valid TAF period, given the persistent IFR/MVFR
deck across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. These
conditions should persist through the evening and into tomorrow
morning, except at MLC, which should see improvement to VFR this
evening. HRRR visibility forecasts, as well as traditional MOS
guidance show an increased likelihood for fog development on the
southern edge of the eroding deck, as well as in parts of NW AR.
Will forecast prevailing visibilities of a mile or less for a few
hours at MLC and the NW AR sites, with 2 to 3 miles at the
remaining terminals. Improvement to VFR should occur from late
morning into the afternoon. Light winds through the night and into
tomorrow morning will become southerly at 5 to 10 kts everywhere
except FSM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 38 59 33 59 / 0 10 10 0
FSM 40 60 36 62 / 0 10 10 0
MLC 39 63 33 62 / 0 10 0 0
BVO 36 56 28 59 / 0 10 10 0
FYV 38 61 31 60 / 0 10 10 0
BYV 39 59 35 59 / 0 10 20 0
MKO 39 58 33 59 / 0 10 10 0
MIO 38 57 30 56 / 0 20 20 0
F10 37 60 31 60 / 0 10 0 0
HHW 37 61 34 62 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...22