Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/29/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
521 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
* Dry through the short term with above average temperatures
Ensembles along with deterministic models agree on a ridge to our
west and a trough to the east, continuing to put the Northern Plains
in northwest flow aloft. By Wednesday, the ridge breaks down as it
moves east with Canadian models/GFS showing zonal flow over the area
while NAM/EC keep it more northwest flow. By late Wednesday into
early Thursday, the pattern turns more into a troughing pattern
across the Northern Plains as a shortwave swings down from Canada,
brushing parts of ND as it heads into MN. Down at 850mb to the
surface, a trough and warm front (associated with a low in northern
Canada) continues to push east into MN this evening. A couple of
surface troughs set up to the south and west of the CWA for
Wednesday with the trough to our west pushing southeast through the
area Wednesday evening/cold front followed by a high setting up over
the Northern Rockies for Thursday.
With this setup, no precipitation expected through the short term as
1000-500mb RH remains dry (15-30% RH values over the CWA per RAP).
Based on forecast soundings and Rap model, winds seem to be dying
down a little quicker than forecasted this morning as the pressure
gradient is decreasing along with the decent mixing as the trough
moves east. With collaboration, I did decrease them a bit with gusts
ranging from 15-25kts late this afternoon and up to 20kts by 00Z.
Winds will continue to diminish through this evening. Downsloping
winds have been gusty this morning into the afternoon between 30-
40kts. Gusts of 25kts or so are still possible tonight before those
winds diminish late.
With the passage of the warm front, overnight lows will be warmer
than last night as 850mb temps range from 0 to +4C per EC (GFS has
temps a tad warmer) with surface winds fairly zonal/slight
northwest. With clear skies/winds becoming light, I was hesitant to
do NBM 90th and kept with the middle range with lows ranging in the
lower to mid 20s. 850mb temps for Wednesday ranges from +3 to +5C
(again GFS a little warmer) and 925mb temps fairly similar as WAA
continues. With sunny skies and winds turning southwesterly, we
should see warmer temps at surface. With collab, we did bump it up a
few degrees and I used the NBM 90th out west and a blend of 75/90
east CWA to show for this, which still may be too low given the
cooler bias of the NBM. Highs are forecasted to range in the mid to
upper 40s to the lower 50s Cooler air moves into the area late
Wednesday night/ Thursday morning behind this cold front. Forecasted
temps will be a few degrees cooler in the upper teens into the lower
20s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- Near to above (mostly above) normal temperatures look to continue.
- Mostly dry through the period, with only small chances (5-15%) for
precip Sunday/Monday.
Looking at deterministic/ensemble 925/850mb temperatures, and it
would appear we are going to continue with a mild pattern through
the extended. Inherited NBM temps support this, with highs generally
in the 30s and 40s. 25th-75th spreads are not overly large either,
which gives a little more confidence in the continued warmth.
As for precipitation, things look mostly dry, with the only chances
(5-15%) showing up Sunday into Monday when models try to bring
shortwave energy southeast across the region. As expected, there are
varying solutions on track and amplification of the shortwave. GEFS
plumes for QPF actually show some minimal amounts during this time.
CMC/EC/GEFS 24-hr probs for measurable QPF show generally less than
50% on Monday. Seems there is potential for NBM to ramp up PoPs over
the next couple runs if ensemble output trends continue to show
potential precipitation. This is about the only noteworthy system to
watch during the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
516 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 307 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Split flow ridge currently moving over the Rocky Mountains will
begin to break down tomorrow as the upper trough moving towards
northern CA moves onshore. This will lead to mainly neutral height
tendencies through about noon tomorrow, followed by height falls
tomorrow into Thursday. Skies today have been mostly clear leading
to temperatures rising into the mid 50s to around 60 across the
area. A weak lee trough has helped maintain some light southwest
winds, and this will be the case again tomorrow afternoon perhaps
with more of a southerly component. Temperatures tomorrow will
also be very similar to today, perhaps even a tad warmer if high
clouds moving in from the southwest move out of the area by peak
heating. Low level moisture will be on the increase late tomorrow
into tomorrow night as the west coast system digs out of the
Desert Southwest, and some HREF guidance is hinting at some low
cloud or perhaps even some fog developing mainly after midnight
tomorrow night in the eastern Texas Panhandle. Right now about 30%
of the HREF members are showing visibility falling below 0.5 miles
across portions of the Texas Panhandle. Have not included mention
in NDFD yet, but it may need to be added in future shifts.
Ward
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Another push of cooler air and precip chances targets the area on
Thursday when a cold front and upper level system move over the
area. Uncertainty still exists, but this precip potential looks
to favor the south and eastern Panhandles, with rain or a
rain/snow mix the most likely outcome. This weekend and beyond, a
slight warming trend should resume with daytime highs in the 50s
to 60s, and morning lows in the 20s to 30s.
Models are in agreement that a shortwave trough will dig across
the southern Plains and allow an initial cold front to drop south
before briefly stalling somewhere near or south of the Texas
Panhandle. As this occurs, a plume of 850-700mb moisture will be
advected over the front, especially in the southeast. At the
surface, drier air is expected to be in place for at least the
northwest combined Panhandles. Further south however, some models
such as the latest 15z RAP hint at the potential for stronger
moisture advection into the area ahead of a deepening sfc low,
with the front possibly hanging further north. Regardless, as
lift from the upper disturbance arrives, showers should begin to
develop along and ahead of the front by the afternoon (30-50%
chance of rain in the S&E TX Panhandle). Temperatures behind the
front should remain well above freezing across the CWA until a
secondary reinforcing front arrives later that evening, but wet
bulb processes could help lower temps near freezing earlier during
the day, and become cold enough to support some snow mixing in
with rain. If moisture can survive behind the front and enough
cooling takes place, snow could become the dominant precip type
and we may need to monitor the potential for areas of light
accumulations in parts of the area. Details still need fine
tuning, but latest forecast guidance is trending favorably for
better precip potential at this time.
Drier air behind the secondary front will take over by Friday, and
southwest flow aloft will persist into next week. Quieter and
warmer conditions are expected to resume as a result.
Harrel
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
VFR conditions are expected through this period. Winds will be
light and variable through the night but become southerly at 10-15
kts during the day.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 27 62 35 46 / 0 0 0 30
Beaver OK 18 55 27 45 / 0 0 0 10
Boise City OK 22 58 26 42 / 0 0 0 10
Borger TX 23 65 34 48 / 0 0 0 30
Boys Ranch TX 23 62 30 48 / 0 0 0 30
Canyon TX 25 62 34 48 / 0 0 0 30
Clarendon TX 30 59 38 52 / 0 0 0 40
Dalhart TX 21 57 26 43 / 0 0 0 20
Guymon OK 20 58 26 43 / 0 0 0 10
Hereford TX 26 63 33 48 / 0 0 0 30
Lipscomb TX 21 57 32 48 / 0 0 0 30
Pampa TX 26 60 34 46 / 0 0 0 30
Shamrock TX 27 59 39 53 / 0 0 0 40
Wellington TX 28 59 41 56 / 0 0 0 50
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...52
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
634 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures warm to seasonal values for the remainder of the week.
- Chances for precipitation remain uncertain for this weekend
and into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
The coldest morning of the Fall season dropped temperatures
into the single digits, to even a few degrees below zero across
west/central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The upcoming
forecast brings good news for those that are not quite ready for
the Winter chill, as temperatures will climb back to seasonal
values over the coming days. Dry weather will be the theme
through the end of the work week.
A surface warm front is located near the border of the Dakotas and
Minnesota early this afternoon. The front is progged to advance east
through the afternoon, though its progression in tandem with the
diurnal temperatures curve will result in a notable temperature
gradient across the area. Locations across western Minnesota
have warmed above the freezing mark, with highs on track to
finish in the upper 30s to even the low 40s along the Buffalo
Ridge. Temperatures will run significantly cooler east of the
front, with sub-freezing high temperatures in the 20s and low
30s at best for eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. It will
not be nearly as cold tonight, with lows in the lower 20s for
most locations.
The warmest day of the work week arrives Wednesday, as southwest
flow within a wing of warm air advection increases. RAP forecast
soundings depict a favorable setup for mixing, thus we have leaned
towards the NBM 75th percentile for tomorrow`s high temperature
forecast. Temperatures will not only climb back above freezing, but
are projected to finish above normal at our climate sites. 40s are
expected across much of the southern half of Minnesota. High
temperatures will run a few degrees cooler, in the upper 30s, across
western Wisconsin.
A dry cold front will move through Thursday, which will shut the
warm advection down and kick the winds out of the northwest for the
rest of the work week. Despite this wind shift, the magnitude of
cold air advection will not be nearly as significant as was observed
over the past few days, thus we`re still looking at seasonal high
temperatures in the 30s. Surface high pressure will build in behind
the FROPA, which will keep things dry into the start of the weekend.
A significant amount of forecast uncertainty remains in the long-
term, as global guidance continues to advertise a progressive trough
moving across CONUS in the Sunday/Monday timeframe. As noted by the
overnight shift, the ensemble suite is looking less impressive as
far as QPF potential to close the upcoming weekend. Differences
remain with regards to track and intensity of a potential system,
however there seems to be enough confidence to say that any
potential wintry weather this weekend would be on the relatively
minor side of things. We`ll continue to fine tune where and when any
snowflakes may fall. Beyond that, CPC forecasts continue to feature
high probabilities for above normal temperatures and below normal
precipitation to open December.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Prevailing VFR through the period. A warm front is advancing
across the area tonight which will cause a wind shift from
southerly to southwesterly. Marginal 35-40kt LLWS may occur as
this front moves through but otherwise winds should remain below
15kts. RAP guidance has been signaling the potential
development of scattered low VFR warm advection clouds late
tonight into tomorrow.
KMSP...VFR. Borderline LLWS up to 35-40kts over the next couple of
hours as a warm front proceeds though. Winds becoming southwest
overnight but should remain below 15kts. RAP guidance signaling a
potential low VFR scattered cigs for early tomorrow morning.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming SW.
Sat...VFR. Wind SE 10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...RMD