Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/27/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1052 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough approaching from the west, along with a storm
system moving North up the Mid Atlantic Coast, will bring
periods of light to moderate rain to primarily the Western Mtns
and Areas over and to the East of the Susq Mainstem tonight.
A changeover to snow is expected across the Western Mtns prior
to daybreak.
A strong cold front will pass through early Monday followed by
steady or slowly falling temperatures during the day,
accompanied by gusty winds.
Lake effect snow will ramp up across northwestern PA Monday
through Tuesday with heavy snow accumulations expected over the
perennial snowbelt, near and to the north of a Meadville to
Warren and Bradford line.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Increasingly strong dynamics aloft are helping to rapidly intensify
a secondary sfc low over the Delmarva Peninsula this evening,
with an 8-10 mb pressure drop at the sfc by the time the sfc low
reaches Western Long Island around 06Z.
The thermally indirect, left exit region of two distinct,
kissing jet segments (125 kt and 140 kt respectively) and sharp
upper diffluence at their leading edges was moving over the Mid
Atlantic Piedmont and Coastal Plain region, causing in a
noticeable increase in intensity (and banding) of rain over and
to the east of the Lower and Middle Susq Valley, where moderate
and ocnly heavy rain intensity was being reported at regional
ASOS/AWOS sites.
23Z HRRR appears to be handling this period of strengthening/focused
dynamic lift very well and also indicates that it will be a
quick-hitter for our eastern CWA and out of the Western Poconos
and Susq`s North Branch (in our fcst area) by about 04Z Monday.
A few to several tenths of an inch of additional rainfall area
likely over the region near and to the east of a KBGM to KMUI
line this evening, while subsidence and weak llvl ridging across
the Central Mtns brings a distinct rainfall min there.
Differential PVA and deep cold advection across the Western Mtns of
PA will be responsible to a second area of QPF, which will gradually
mix with then change to snow later tonight and early Monday as 850
MB temps drop 8-10 deg C between 03Z and 12Z Monday with sfc temps
falling from the u30 and mid 40s to the U20s and L30s by daybreak
Monday. Look for a light coating of snow between 06-12Z Monday
across the ridges of the Laurel Highlands (mainly AOA 2300 MSL) and
also across much of Warren and Mckean Counties where there could
be up to one inch in some locations by Sunrise Monday (including
across the highest elevations just south and east of there in
Potter and Nrn Elk Counties).
Previous Disc... Rapid fire changes in the near term, but none
of any real consequences. A coastal low is already spreading
very light pcpn into SErn PA. The sfc low near Duck, NC at 19Z
will continue zipping north along the coast this evening. By
Midnight, it should be to ACY and drier air should already be
wrapping around it into our eastern zones. Between now and then,
a few hundreths of rain (all liquid) will fall for areas along
and east of the Susq R.
The wave approaching from the west looks drier and drier with
each pass of a model. Have not decreased PoPs much for the west
this evening and early tonight, but have nudged QPF down just a
hair. The central mtns could end up with only a few sprinkles as
they appear to be far enough from the coastal low`s effects and
there may not be enough moisture with the western trough to make
rain hit the ground here/locally. P-type is still mainly rain
for the evening and first part of the night. However, sfc temps
and vertical profiles favor a mixing over much of the
Alleghenies overnight. Temps by sunrise should be cold enough
for all snow in the nrn tier.
The active watch for Warren County has been converted to a lake
effect snow warning as a favorable fetch exists for the nrn (esp
NWrn) part of the county. McKean Co is now in an advy, too. They
will still have a two-day period of snow bands to deal with, but
not all of the time. They should also be just a tiny bit more
out of the way of the heaviest bands in the 260-270 degree mean
flow off the lake. Started the headlines before dawn to give
folks a heads-up as they head out the door for the commute to
work/school. However, accumulations by sunrise shouldn`t be more
than an inch anywhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The ongoing SHSN over the Laurels and NW mtns in the morning
will likely decrease to just a few SHSN in the upslope of the
Laurels, and the majority of the accumulating snowfall becoming
confined to nrn Warren and McKean Cos in the aftn. The best
bands may even waggle entirely north of the NY border for a time
late in the day and the first half of Mon night. But...the snow
bands and perhaps some squalls return for the second half of Mon
night and all of Tues.
The continued veering of the cross-lake mean llvl/cloud bearing
flow will push bands farther into the Alleghenies during the
last few hours of Mon night and all of Tuesday. The wind will
still be just westerly enough to not have a good/deep Huron
connection into PA (likely well N). With a secondary punch of
colder air coming across the warm lake Tues, there will be an
increase in CAPE/instability. The SNSQ parameter peaks mid-day
Tues. The dryness of the airmass (dewpoints near 10F) could be a
factor to limit the intensity of the snow bands/squalls. The
intense convection may also make it tough to the convection to
organize itself into squall, and be more cellular. It`s tough to
get big accums with those guys, but easy to have very brief
intense bursts that are fast-moving, too. The mixing does get up
to 10-12kft at the height of the event on Tues. This is usually
good for ~1" rates in the best bands.
We will continue to evaluate the threat for 3+" of snow for Elk
and Potter Cos, but confidence is under 50% that they will have
that much with the lack of residence time of SHSN/SQSN to get
there, even during the entire 48-hrs window of lk eff.
West winds on Monday and Tuesday will bring some gusts in the
25-40 mph range, highest on the ridgetops of the Laurels. A
30-40% chance of gusts >40KT is there for the very highest
elevations. But, at this point, the threat for widespread gusts
>=40KT is under 50%. So, no wind advy there - yet. Even without
an advy, the gusts, when combine with any bands/squalls could
rapidly decrease visibilities and cause drifting.
The wind backs again as the shortwave pushing the arctic air
thru progresses quickly to our east. The SHSN should recede
back to wrn NY by the end of the night Tues night.
Maxes 35-45F Monday will feel balmy compared to the 25-35F
maxes on Tues. 8H temps in the negative teens C Tues likely
won`t return to PA for at least the next week.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By the middle of the week, winds will begin to shift more
southwesterly, which will result in lake effect snow tapering
off across northwest Pennsylvania. Gusty winds will also taper
off, though wind gusts of 15 to 25 miles per hour remain
possible through Thursday. One more chilly day on Wednesday
(highs generally in the 30s) will precede a moderating trend
through the end of the week. Highs Thursday through Sunday in
the 40s will be near to slightly above average for this time of
year.
The next weather system arrives on Friday as a broad area of
moisture ahead of a an approaching cold front tracks into the
eastern half of the country. Ensemble model guidance indicates
that moisture will be relatively inconsequential, ranging from
up to half an inch across the northwest to less than a tenth of
an inch across much of southeast PA. Temperature profiles
indicate that rain will be the dominant precipitation type, but
a few wet flakes could mix in across the northeast.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure lifting up the Mid Atlantic coast will produce
lingering light rain and low cigs across Eastern PA late this
evening, mainly from KIPT and KMDT eastward. Gradual improvement
is expected across Eastern Pa late tonight, as the low and
associated rain exit the area.
The focus over Western PA tonight will be on an approaching
cold front, which will sweep through the state late tonight.
Surging moisture ahead of the front will result in lowering cigs
and showers tonight, with a 75% chance for a period of IFR cigs
at KBFD and KJST in the 05Z-08Z time frame. In addition, a core
of strong winds aloft preceding the front could support a brief
period of marginal LLWS this evening over the Allegheny Plateau
(KBFD/KJST).
Residual low level moisture behind the front, combined with
upsloping flow, is likely to yield lingering MVFR cigs and
scattered -shsn at KBFD/KJST into Monday, while downsloping flow
results in progressively higher cigs further east.
In the wake of the cold front, westerly winds (270)
sustained 10 to 15 kts will occasionally gust 20 to 30 kts
during the day on Monday. Model soundings and ensemble prob
chars indicate MVFR ceilings are likely to persist all day
Monday at KBFD and until mid afternoon at KJST, with primarily
VFR conditions likely over the southeast half of the state.
Outlook...
Tue...Gusty NW winds. Snow showers/squalls possible northern PA
and likely over Warren/Mckean counties.
Wed...Slight chance of light snow NW Mtns.
Thu...Slight chance of AM low cigs NW Mtns.
Fri...Low cigs/shra possible, esp NW Mtns.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Warning from 4 AM Monday to 1 AM EST
Wednesday for PAZ004.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
for PAZ005.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
606 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2023
.AVIATION...
Widespread light snow is starting to decrease in intensity, as the
main storm exits to the northeast. One last batch of enhanced
snowfall, currently over the south-central Lower Peninsula, will
swing through over the next several hours. Radar depiction of the
ongoing precip shield and the upstream activity is starting to look
mottled, as ascent is weakening and some drier air aloft is
influencing snowfall production.
Attention then turns to the development of snow showers in the wake
of the system, especially once Lake Michigan activates. Appears to
be few opportunities for snow shower production. First, during the
initial push of cold air around daybreak; second, with the diurnal
peak during the mid-afternoon hours; and third, with the extension
of the Lake Michigan activity associated with a deeper convective
layer during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Most
favorable location for snow shower activity will be between FNT and
DTW/YIP. Best chances during the afternoon at FNT/PTK and late
afternoon and evening at DTW/YIP. Brief reductions in visibility
below a mile are certainly possible along with squally conditions -
especially with the later activity as it will support large
snowflake production.
For DTW...low clouds and light snow will persist this evening before
giving way to scattered snow showers / flurries overnight. There is
a window of opportunity for a round of snow showers around daybreak.
A second window for meaningful snow showers will occur during the
late afternoon and early evening hours - possibly squally in nature.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High confidence in cigs aob 5000 feet through Monday.
* Low confidence in visibilities falling below 1/2SM in any snow
showers on Monday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2023
DISCUSSION...
A cold start to the work week, with slippery road conditions
expected in localized snow showers/border-line snow squalls.
Amplifying but progressive upper level trough will work through the
Great Lakes region tonight through Monday night, with a
shortwave/clipper system on track to move through the northern Great
lakes Wednesday morning.
Lead shortwave/moisture advection with southwest flow ahead of the
longwave trough has resulted in widespread snow this afternoon over
southeast Michigan, and accumulations look to be 1 to 1.5 inches for
most locations, especially since surface temperatures have settled
around the freezing mark already, allowing for some accumulation on
secondary roads as well.
Solid low level cold advection tonight as 850 MB temps lowering to
-10 to -12 C will support lake enhanced snow shower activity off
Lake Michigan with the brisk westerly winds (~30 knots of mean wind
in the 925-850 MB layer).
As usual with lake effect, the dry nature of the arctic airmass
(near zero dew pts) over Wisconsin moving into Lake Michigan will be
a factor and complicate the lake response and how vigorous the
activity will be. With the cold cyclonic flow and surface troughing
indicated late tonight-Monday evening, along with relatively high
inversion heights 5-7 kft, expecting at least numerous light snow
showers along/south of I-69 as an additional shortwave also crosses
southern Lake Michigan late in the day. With modest surface heating
during Monday, sbcapes look to climb aoa 50 J/kg and some of the
cape gets into the DGZ, which will support more intense activity.
12z HRRR suggests the middle tier of counties will see these
stronger bands.
Veering winds to the northwest and further cold advection Monday
evening/night (850 temps lowering to -15 to -16 C) will favor the
bulk of the snow shower activity over the northern Thumb region, as
Lake Superior-northern Lake Michigan-Saginaw Bay trajectory sets up.
Between the Monday and Monday night activity, most locations should
see a dusting to one inch, but localized 2+ inches are also likely.
Upper level trough axis and embedded upper waves to exit east of the
Central Great Lakes Tuesday morning, and subsidence/confluent flow
will lower the inversion heights and drying will take place leading
to any leftover activity diminishing to flurries, with even some
partial sunshine expected. Cold with maxes in the upper 20s to
around 30 degrees, helped out by snow cover and forecasted 925 MB
temps aob -8 C.
12z NAM and Euro ensemble clusters suggest the next shortwave/clipper
type system and associated forcing will track through the northern
Great Lakes Wednesday morning, and the chance for any snow looks to
be very low over southeast Michigan. It does look to be a real close
call, especially north of M-46, so possible stronger wave and farther
south track remains in play.
Some significant differences amongst the medium range models with
the placement of the deep 500 MB low in and around Hudson Bay during
the Thursday-Friday time frame. Meanwhile, a southern wave will exit
the Four Corners region and make a run toward the southern Great
Lakes, supporting a chance of rain by Friday. Although, it remains
possible the westerly confluent flow will win out over southern
lower Michigan to keep us dry.
MARINE...
Low pressure system drags a cold front across the region this
evening, bringing snow to the Great Lakes. Behind the front, the
pressure gradient will tighten, and a well-mixed layer at the
surface will support the increase of wind speeds, with near-gale
force gusts possible on Monday. A Gale Warning is in effect from 4
AM Monday to 10 PM Monday for northern Lake Huron. Guidance suggests
that the presence of gales remain relatively unlikely, but models
are also trending upwards, so nothing can be ruled out at this
point. The rest of the lake will see wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots,
and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all of the nearshore
areas. Significant waves over the northern part of Lake Huron where
winds are the greatest are expected to exceed 10 feet, while the
southern part of Lake Huron will see around 6 foot waves. A
secondary cold front moves through on Tuesday, reinforcing cold
advection and veering wind to the northwest. This keeps numerous
snow showers around with winds gusting 25 to 30+ knots through
Tuesday night into Wednesday, where a shift to southwesterly flow
brings further chances for gales.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
LHZ421-422-441>443.
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for LHZ361-362.
Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
LCZ460.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
LEZ444.
Low Water Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....Mann
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......BC
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
800 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2023
.Key Messages...
- Precipitation ends late this afternoon and early this evening
- Cloudy and cold overnight
- Winter like temperatures and single digit wind chill Mon and Tue
- Temperatures moderating back towards normal mid to late week
- Next chance for precipitation Friday and then again next weekend
&&
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 800 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2023
North-south oriented vorticity maxima is passing through central
Indiana now, preceded by a band of stronger ascent and deeper
saturation. Ice introduction via top-down method is not a concern
now within this deeper saturation/ascent. The depth of >0C wet bulb
in the lower troposphere was a limiting factor for snow down to the
I-70 corridor an hour or two ago, but with continued ascent/cooling,
a transition to snow has been observed. The heavier echoes on radar
and higher probability of measurable amounts is now confined to
eastern portions of central Indiana and should exit with the
departure of the aforementioned shortwave/vort within the next
couple of hours. Following this will be stronger cold advection and
a drier air mass. Residual wet road, parking lot, and sidewalks
could freeze creating slick spots later tonight as a hard freeze is
expected. Forecast elements were updated based on observational
trends, but the previous forecast is in pretty good shape.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2023
Surface analysis this afternoon shows a trough over Eastern
Illinois. This trough has been pushing eastward the last several
hours and is expected to continue to progress east this afternoon.
Abundant cloud cover was found across Central Indiana. Water Vapor
imagery aloft shows an upper trough stretching from western Ontario,
southward to Minnesota, IA and IL. Precipitation was found ahead of
the trough axis, and radar showed the back edge of precipitation
just arriving in the Wabash Valley. Water Vapor showed dry air aloft
over southern IL and western KY beginning to flow into the system
from the system from the southwest.
Tonight...
Models suggest the trough axis over Central Indiana along with the
associated precipitation with the system will exit the state this
evening. HRRR suggests all of the precipitation should have exited
the area by 00Z. Given the current radar trends along with the dry
air intruding aloft, this seems reasonable and will try to aim for
dry pops this evening. May need to hold onto some low chc pops
across the east due to propagation and collaboration. The rest of
the overnight period will be cloudy. Forecast soundings show
saturated lower levels, with a sharp inversion aloft amid lower
level cold air advection. This will result in trapped stratocu this
evening and overnight. Thus cloudy and colder. Given the cold air
advection, lows in the lower and middle 20s will be expected.
Monday...
Dry but cold weather will be expected on Monday. Models show a broad
trough in place over Ontario. This will allow NW flow to spill
across the upper midwest and into the Ohio Valley. Little in the way
of upper support will be available within this flow. Meanwhile at
the surface, cold northwest flow will be in place across Central
Indiana with strong high pressure anchored over the southern plains
and a strong ridge axis extended northward across the northern
plains. Cold air advection allows 850mb temps to fall to around -10C
on Monday afternoon. Forecast soundings show the day initially
starting out as cloudy as the trapped stratocu remains in place
through the morning hours. However, as the day progresses, the
forecast soundings show mixing and drying within the column allowing
for afternoon clearing. So, we will overall trend toward a forecast
of decreasing cloudiness, but confidence in that is a little low due
to the surface ridge axis still remaining to our west through the
day. Highs will only reach the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2023
- Winter like temperatures and single digit wind chill Tuesday
- Temperatures moderating back towards normal mid to late week
- Next chance for precipitation Friday and then again next weekend
.Tuesday...
The long term period begins with deep upper troughing over Southern
Canada and the Great Lakes region Monday, slowly pushing eastward
through mid week placing Indiana with a general west to northwest
flow pattern. Cyclonic flow aloft will advect moisture from Lake
Michigan to the northeastern counties with a very low probability
for light precipitation across the far northeastern counties Monday
night, but surface flow is too westerly for much moisture to get
squeezed out within the forecast area. The big story early in the
week will be the very cold, Canadian airmass advecting into the
region resulting in highs struggling to reach the freezing mark
Tuesday! Northwest winds during this period will remain elevated as
a tight pressure gradient remains in place between high pressure to
the west and lower pressure to the north and east. Sustained winds
of 10-15 mph and gusts above 20 mph at times combined with lows in
the upper teens and highs in the 30s will make for wind chill values
in the single digits at times. This will be the coldest air of the
season so far, so make take extra precautions to stay safe with wind
chill values this low. A few upper disturbances pass by to the north
Tuesday and Wednesday; however the environment will be so dry that
the only sensible impacts will be an increase in cloud cover Tuesday
evening.
.Wednesday through Saturday...
Dry weather should persist through through Thursday timeframe as
high pressure becomes centered over the SE CONUS and will be the
dominant weather influence in Indiana. At the same time, upper
troughing retreats back north and east as a more mild airmass with
above normal temperature anomalies advect northward ahead of an
approaching system to the southwest. This pattern flip will lead to
moderating surface temperatures each day back into the 40s by
Wednesday and near 50 on Thursday, closer to seasonal norms for this
time of year. Towards Thursday night and Friday, the southern branch
of the jet becomes active once again as a the next weather system
develops in the Southern Plains and ejects northeastward into the
Ohio Valley. This is the next big system to watch which will likely
bring a period of rainfall, gusty winds, and warmer temperatures.
Confidence is increasing in a low tracking closer to the Ohio River
placing Central Indiana in an area of widespread rainfall. The warm
air ahead and with the system should allow for a rain only solution
with the major remaining question being expected QPF.
Flow will be southerly ahead of the system but the moisture transfer
vectors in the lower levels show that much of that moisture
struggling to reach past Kentucky and with robust showers across the
Gulf states, much of the moisture may be robbed which would limit
rainfall amounts across Indiana. Thus would expect to be on the
lower end of model guidance with total QPF closer to 0.25-0.5 vs the
0.75-1.00 currently depicted by deterministic guidance. Ensemble
guidance for 24 hour QPF probabilities agree with this thinking with
both ECE and GFE showing less than a 50 percent chance of 24 hour
QPF exceeding a half inch. Heaviest precipitation looks to be during
the morning to early afternoon hours Friday with the potential for a
weaker secondary low on Saturday brining renewed low POPs.
.8 to 14 day outlook...
Longer range guidance and ensemble data indicate above average low
level temperature and moisture anomalies persisting into next weekend
and the beginning of next week. Expecting more chances for rainfall
and temperatures at or above normal persisting Sunday into next week
for Central Indiana.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 551 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2023
Impacts:
- IFR conditions gradually improving; VFR by late Monday
- Wind gusts up to 25 knots
Discussion:
The second of two shortwave troughs will pass this evening and
should result in a trend toward MVFR ceilings. These may linger into
Monday, with VFR possibly not returning until late in the day.
Medium confidence on VFR onset time. Mixing and momentum transfer
will result in wind gusts up to 25 knots through the TAF period,
with perhaps a lull briefly later tonight through early morning.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...BRB
Short Term...Puma
Long Term...CM
Aviation...BRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
207 PM MST Sun Nov 26 2023
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wed afternoon. Little change to the
current stable, stagnant, and cold atmosphere. Where fresh snow is
able to radiate copiously, expect temperatures to plummet tonight.
The Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley stratus has just barely
evaporated around its edges, allowing finally just this last hour
for Burley to finally get clear skies and finally warm, maybe,
into the 20s. See nothing to disturb this, and expect a repeat
under the strong high pressure. Human activity causing combustion
should increase the particulate matter and may later this week
reduce air quality, and continue the cruddy valley conditions by
adding fog into the mix. So expect either fog or this low
cloudiness to persist if at a low elevation, especially in the
Snake River plain, eastern Magic Valley, and basins and valleys in
the southern and eastern highlands. However, even today the Wood
River valley had its problems clearing out, it was still 19 deg F
in Hailey even while usually bitter cold Stanley is at 30 deg F.
Teton Valley also lucked out today with clear skies and a
temperature that broke 30. On the bright side, no significant wind
to cause damage. Messick
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday.
On Thursday, one system will be passing to our south while weak
ridging continues over eastern Idaho. Any moisture stays south with
that system, too, and our afternoon highs remain in the upper 20s to
low 30s across the area. We don`t really see big impacts from that
system, but it does push out the high pressure and open the door for
moisture to head our way. By the time we get to Friday, we begin a
parade of shortwave troughs that will move through eastern Idaho.
With these, both the GFS and ECMWF agree on several rounds of snow
showers passing through from Friday into early next week. Snow could
start as early as Friday afternoon in the Central Mountains before
expanding farther south and east. At this point, it doesn`t look to
bring as much snow to the Snake Plain and Magic Valley like our
system on Thanksgiving, but would keep the higher snow totals in the
Sawtooths, Albion Mountains, Bear River Range, and the mountains of
the Eastern Highlands. Winds will also pick up with these shortwaves
with gusts on Saturday and Sunday approaching 25 to 30 mph.
AMM
.AVIATION... 18Z Sunday through 18Z Monday.
While we`ve gone SCT/CLR at most sites this afternoon, we remain in
low stratus at SUN keeping CIGs down to LIFR conditions. This will
likely continue for the next few hours and any improvement may only
last a couple of hours with about a 30 percent probability of CIGs
less than 1000 ft overnight. Expect more freezing fog and low
stratus to impact all sites again tonight into early Monday morning
with CIGs and VIS down to IFR/LIFR conditions. Confidence in this is
highest at BYI, and slightly less at the other sites. The latest NBM
has pulled the fog back just a bit while the HRRR continues to show
IFR/LIFR CIGs tonight. This will need to be interrogated a bit more
with the next TAF package and latest data. We`ll scatter back out
Monday afternoon with light winds once again with this pattern on
repeat.
AMM
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$