Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/25/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
246 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 236 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2023
Overview: An upper level low, centered over western Utah at 20
UTC this afternoon, will progress eastward across the Colorado
Rockies (tonight) and adjacent High Plains (Saturday).
Ongoing precipitation over northern and western portions of the
area appears to be a function of [1] mid-level (~700 mb) warm
advection and [2] DPVA attendant small amplitude waves in SW flow
aloft.. well downstream of the aforementioned upper low in Utah.
Snow has largely been relegated to areas situated north of
Interstate 70 and west of Highway 283.. where 1-2" of accumulation
has been observed as of 20 UTC. Simulated reflectivity , liquid
equiv precipitation and snow accumulation forecasts via current
and recent runs of the HRRR, RAP and NAM NEST all suggest that
ongoing precipitation will tend to shift north toward the KS-NE
border through the remainder of the afternoon.. with precipitation
waning altogether by late evening (~06Z). A lull will follow,
thereafter.
Easterly low-level (850 mb) flow will veer to the south and
strengthen early Saturday morning (09-12 UTC) as the H85 height
gradient re-orients/tightens on the eastern periphery of a
developing 850 mb low in southeast Colorado -- a weak reflection
of the upper low progressing eastward across the Rockies. Guidance
indicates that strengthening low-level warm advection on the
eastern periphery of the 850 mb low will give rise to a southwest-
to-northeast oriented band of precipitation over southwest Kansas
around or shortly before sunrise (09-12 UTC) Saturday morning.
Simulated reflectivity, liquid equiv precipitation and snow
accumulation forecasts via current and recent runs of the HRRR,
RAP and NAM NEST all suggest that this band will develop a short
distance south and east of the Goodland CWA.. and that the zone of
favorable ascent /low-level warm advection/ will shift eastward
into central KS during the day.. a consequence of the progressive
nature of the upper low and associated 850 mb reflection. While
the majority of moderate to heavy precipitation associated with
low-level warm advection should largely be confined south and east
of the Goodland CWA.. DPVA attendant the upper low itself should
aid in the development of light-moderate precipitation over
northwest KS after sunrise (12-18Z).. ending from west-to-east
during the mid-late afternoon as the upper low progresses into
central KS.
Summary: Precipitation assoc/w the upper low itself will likely
result in some additional snow accumulation over northwest KS and
southwest NE during the day on Saturday, however.. said
precipitation will be relatively short-lived and light to moderate
in intensity. Precipitation assoc/w low-level warm advection..
while heavy in nature.. will largely be relegated south and east
of the Goodland CWA. Thus, at this time.. there is no compelling
reason to alter (i.e. upgrade or cancel) the ongoing Winter
Weather Advisory.. which remains in effect as-is until sunset
Saturday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2023
At the start of the long term period, model guidance continues to
show the axis of an upper air trough just to the east of CWA on
Sunday morning. Going through the rest of Sunday, models show the
trough widening and causing a westerly flow over the CWA by the
afternoon hours and through the night. This westerly flow aloft
looks to continue into Monday before the front part of a western
upper air ridge makes its way into the Northern Great Plains during
the evening. The GFS shows an embedded positively tilted trough
feature passing over the CWA on Monday evening that does not look to
be present in the ECMWF. For Tuesday, models depict the western
ridge moving more eastward allowing for a northwesterly flow over
the CWA. On Wednesday, forecast models project a cutoff upper air
low moving across northern CA into NV during the day causing the
axis of a weak ridge feature to pass over the CWA overnight. For
Thursday, long term models depart from their solutions as the ECMWF
shows a quicker eastward progression of the upper air low compared
to the GFS by having it reach southwestern KS by the overnight
hours. On Friday, the ECMWF forecasts the CWA gaining a west-
southwesterly flow through the day being underneath the top of an
upper air ridge followed by a trough building in the western CONUS.
As an alternative solution, the GFS moves the upper air low over UT
by Thursday night causing a southwesterly flow over the CWA. On
Friday, the GFS predicts the low opening into a weak trough and
passing over the CWA in the afternoon as a trough builds over the
southwestern CONUS. Will monitor future model runs especially
towards the later parts to see if better agreement comes about.
At the surface, there appears to be low chances currently for
precipitation during the long term period. Models show about a 4-5
mb gradient across the CWA in the late morning and afternoon on
Sunday allowing for northwesterly surface winds gusting up to around
25-35 kts. There may be some potential for some blowing snow with
these winds though low confidence at this time as there snow is not
expected to be falling on Sunday and snowfall totals from the
previous days have come down a bit. Will monitor this as well in
case this trend changes. While portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne
counties in CO may see some minimum RH values in the upper teens on
Tuesday and Wednesday, maximum winds look to limit fire weather
potential. Opting to keep silent PoPs in for eastern portions of the
CWA on Thursday night as the ECMWF shows possible wraparound
precipitation within the CWA caused by a surface low passing south
of the CWA that the GFS does not have. Will watch to see if models
trend more towards having precipitation or not and adjust as needed
in future forecasts.
Daytime highs for the Tri-State Area are expected to be in the upper
30s and lower 40s on Sunday and in the upper 30s to middle 40s range
on Monday. Daytime highs on Tuesday as well as Thursday are forecast
to be between the middle 40s and lower 50s followed by highs on
Wednesday in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Friday`s daytime highs
expect to cool a bit down to the lower to middle 40s. As for
overnight low temperatures, Sunday night expects to be in the upper
single digits to lower teens with minimum wind chill values between
a few degrees on either side of 0F. Low temperatures on Monday,
Wednesday, and Friday nights look to range between the middle and
upper teens while lows in the middle teens to lower 20s are forecast
on Tuesday and Thursday nights.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 235 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2023
LIFR to MVFR conditions associated with low ceilings and/or
periods of snow (the latter mainly at the MCK terminal) are
expected through the remainder of this afternoon and evening. A
brief respite from sub-VFR conditions is expected late tonight and
early Saturday morning, mainly in the 06-12Z time frame.. when
ceilings may lift to 3,500 to 4,500 ft AGL. IFR-MVFR conditions
assoc/w low ceilings are anticipated to return around sunrise
(~12-14Z) and persist through the remainder of the TAF period,
accompanied by periods of snow during the late morning and early
afternoon. Light (5-10 knot) easterly winds will rule throughout
the TAF period -- predominately from the E-ESE (tonight and
Saturday morning), backing to the ENE-NE by the end of the TAF
period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Saturday for
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ090>092.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Saturday for
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...076
AVIATION...Vincent
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
850 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 823 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023
The first widespread measurable snowfall of the season is on the
way for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Light accumulations
of under 1 inch will be common everywhere north of the I-70
corridor...with as much as 1 to 2 inches possible northwest of the
Illinois River.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023
Dew points range from the mid teens to mid 20s as a cold and dry
air mass remains in place across central Illinois, being advected
into the region from the northeast on the east side of surface
high pressure centered in southwest Minnesota. Little change has
been observed in high res models` forecasts for snow totals,
though the 25.00z iteration of the HRRR has come up slightly in
its forecast for total snow accumulations and now has more than
an inch pretty much everywhere (with pockets of 2 inches or more)
north of I-72 by 10 am Sunday. The NAMNest, by contrast, has much
lower precipitation totals and thus snow accumulations, and has
been more consistent between its 24.18z and 25.12z iterations. At
this point, confidence is not high enough to adjust the forecast
to include the higher snowfall amounts forecast by the latest HRRR
run, but it`s possible that it`s on to something; we`ll continue
to look at other guidance and assess whether forecast changes
might be needed with the overnight forecast package.
Bumgardner
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023
A 1040mb high centered over the Northern Plains will dominate the
weather across central Illinois for the next 24 hours...ensuring
the continuation of cool/dry conditions. Despite the presence of
the high, ample mid/high cloud cover associated with a short-wave
trough passing well south of the area will create overcast
conditions through tonight. As the wave departs, skies will become
mostly sunny from late Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the middle to
upper 20s, while highs on Saturday climb into the lower to middle
40s.
Barnes
.LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Next Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023
A closed 500mb low noted on 20z/2pm water vapor imagery over Utah
will open up and track eastward through the Midwest late in the
weekend. The airmass ahead of this feature will initially be quite
dry: however, NAM/GFS forecast soundings are showing ample
moistening from the top-down as the wave approaches from the west
late Saturday night. Latest CAMs still vary somewhat on timing of
precip onset: however, think Saturday evening will remain
dry...with light precip developing/spreading eastward to the I-55
corridor by dawn Sunday.
The atmospheric profile will be cold enough to support all snow
as the precip begins, then will warm sufficiently to allow the
snow to mix with or change to rain along/south of a Macomb to
Champaign line by mid-morning Sunday. In addition to boundary
layer warming, forecast soundings show a loss of ice crystals,
which will cause any lingering very light precip from midday
through the afternoon to be in the form of drizzle.
QPF with this system has increased slightly from previous
forecasts, which is reasonable given the strength of the upper
wave and a consistent moistening trend noted by all models. Think
all areas north of the I-70 corridor will have some snow on the
ground by Sunday morning. Mitigating factors for significant
accumulations include the overall light nature of the precip and
the warm ground conditions. Based on latest projections, much of
the central KILX CWA north of I-70 will see snowfall of less than
1 inch. Further northwest, latest Grand Ensemble guidance suggests
locations northwest of the Illinois River have a 60-80 percent
chance of exceeding 1 inch of snow.
Once the system departs, a shot of colder air will arrive early
next week...causing high temps into the lower to middle 30s on
Monday. After that, temperatures will moderate into the 40s by
Wednesday...then into the upper 40s and lower 50s by Thursday/Friday.
The next chance for precipitation will hold off until the end of
the week, at which time it will be warm enough for rain.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery reveals widespread mid to
high clouds streaming across central Illinois from the southwest,
with some sporadic MVFR ceilings observed in spots. Given how
isolated these lower ceilings are, no tempo groups were added to
account for this. VFR flight conditions should continue through
the end of the forecast period, with decreasing winds veering from
north-northeast to east early Saturday morning.
Bumgardner
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
617 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow likely late Saturday into Sunday
- Northwest winds gust up to 40 mph Sunday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023
High pressure centered over the region this afternoon will
continue to slide off to the southeast, with more active flow
aloft bringing more clouds and increasing chances for snow over
the weekend. Cloud cover will overspread the area from south to
north as warm air advection develops in the wake of the
departing high, with Saturday being a cool & overcast day.
Flurries are likely across southwest Minnesota during the day,
but more widespread light snow is expected to develop saturday
evening into Sunday as stronger forcing aloft arrives.
Accumulations will be light, generally around half an inch
across Minnesota with increasing chances for 1-2" as one heads
eastwards across Wisconsin. Temperatures will fall into the
teens and low 20s overnight, so slick spots are likely on
untreated surfaces through Sunday morning - despite the
relatively light accumulations. The snow will also be followed
by a cold front, with gusty northwest winds up to 40 mph
developing in its wake. It does appear that the strongest winds
will come after the snow has fallen, but patchy blowing snow may
still be possible Sunday afternoon & evening.
Temperatures remain cool Monday behind the cold front, but a
return to more seasonable temperatures is expected through the
rest of the week as persistent deep troughing over the Great
Lakes moves of to the east. Looking farther ahead, the first
week of December continues to look warm as pronounced ridging is
forecast to develop & persist over the central CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023
Clouds will slowly lower through the day on Saturday as the
batch of light snow currently over Nebraska works northeast
toward western WI. This snow will be encountering increasingly
drier low level air as it pushes north, with the forcing waning
as well. All of this means the uncertainties with just how much
snow we`ll see reach the ground over southern MN and the extent
of MVFR stratus remain. HREF probabilities for MVFR cigs are
high enough though to start getting a bit more aggressive with
spreading the MVFR cigs in, sending them beyond just RWF/MKT.
KMSP...HREF MVFR probabilities, in conjunction with RAP
soundings moistening up enough around the 2k foot layer to
bring in some MVFR cigs by the afternoon for MSP. There may be
some flurries as well in the late afternoon into the evening,
the snow chances for MSP look best with the passaged of the cold
front Sunday morning.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...Mrng, MVFR/chc -SN. Aftn VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts bcmg NW
20-25G30-40 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
904 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
The forecast will feature below-average temperature, high
confidence in rain on Sunday into Monday, and lake-enhanced snow
showers in northwest Pennsylvania and the ridges through most
of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Late evening update...
The stratocu layer, maintained by lake enhancement in cold NW
flow, has drifted southward this evening. This trend should
continue for a portion of the overnight hours. The 00Z upper air
analysis showed 850mb temperatures near -10 deg C across Lake
Erie and Lake Huron. Near term model data, and upstream
observations, show these temperatures increase overnight,
reaching around -4 deg C toward morning. The clouds should
diminish late tonight as subsidence increases under surface
high pressure building across the Upper Ohio Valley region, and
as the 850mb temperatures warm.
High clouds will increase overnight across the region with warm
advection aloft. This will likely maintain cloud cover even as
the lower clouds decrease, at least somewhat limiting
radiational cooling. With high pressure overhead, and light
wind by early Saturday morning, lows should still fall to
around 5 degrees below average.
Previous discussion...
Through the late overnight hours and into Saturday, high
pressure is expected to move overhead. This will bring light to
calm winds and promote upper subsidence and dry air in the low
levels. With daytime mixing, sun is expected to return. Despite
this, remnant low level cold air will keep highs below average
once again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low development is expected in association with a central-CONUS
trough that will move ewd in the short-term. Ensembles are
showing minimal variability in the 500mb heights. Ensemble
clusters also show very little deviation from the mean. All of
these points suggest that there is high confidence in the
timing and presence of low pressure sweeping through the Ohio
Valley on Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. Most
precipitation will be favored in the warm sector of the low with
better moisture and upper support from the left-exit region of
a 250mb jet. There is a 40% chance that precipitation will begin
as snow north of I-80 on Sunday evening with cooler low-level
temperatures, but this will quickly transition to rain in warm
advection. NBM probabilistic guidance is showing total QPF
between 0.1 inch on the low end and 0.5 inch on the high end
for most of the area, with median guidance falling around 0.25
inch. Further, there is no apparent flooding threat with
rainfall with high confidence in low-end totals.
As the surface trough and affiliated cold front pass, stout
low-level cold advection will begin. Low-level saturation will
be forced, and light rain may transition to light snow by early
Monday morning. Some light accumulations are possible nearer
northwest Pennsylvania and the ridges by daybreak with lake and
orographic influence. Probabilities of accumulations through 7am
Monday are highest north of I-80, between 50% and 75%.
Probabilities of exceeding an inch are highest for the ridges of
West Virginia, but still only 10% to 20% for now.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A polar low is expected to dip down into northern Canada, and
continual shortwave passages on its periphery will keep the
region embedded in cold, northwesterly flow. The main
uncertainty in the long term arises from the amplitude and
progression speed of these shortwave troughs.
One higher-confidence item in the long term is that forecast
temperatures will remain below average as polar air streams
down into the region. The bulk of ensemble guidance reflects
below-average temperature through at least Thursday, with a
slight warming trend into the weekend. CPC guidance reflects a
45% to 55% probability of remaining below average through days 6
to 10.
The main impact in the long term will be lake-enhanced snow,
primarily north of I-80. The cold airmass will promote a lake-
land thermal contrast in low-level buoyancy. Occasional forcing
from shortwave-trough passages will create multiple opportunities
for enhanced snowfall in northwesterly flow. 72-hour accumulation
guidance through Wednesday evening has a probability maximum
along the northern border of Mercer, Venango, and Forest
Counties. Probabilities of exceeding 1 inch top out at 85
percent, and probabilities of exceeding 4 inches sit at roughly
30 percent for now.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The surge of moisture-enhanced cold air that led to afternoon
cigs has mixed out, but a secondary surge across Lake Erie has
renewed nnwly wind and cloud cover in the 3-4kft range covering
much of nwrn PA.
This stratocu deck is making considerable swd progress, and is
well-reflected by the RAP but inconsistently among other short-
range guidance. Expectation is for these cigs to arrive in the
PIT/AGC area between 25/01 and 25/02Z, but may not make
sufficient swd progress to affect MGW/HLG before eroding.
With increasing subsidence overnight, expectations are for this
moist, unstable layer to encounter increasingly hostile
conditions, leading to eventual erosion of the low clouds late
tonight, by 25/07-25/09Z. However, it is possible that the
moisture becomes trapped beneath the subsidence inversion and
is unable to entrain the dry air from above, which could lead to
longer-duration cigs in the low-end VFR/high-end MVFR category.
Thereafter, building sfc high pressure will lead to veering wind
and eventual light sely flow by morning with only limited cirrus
to contend with. Sufficient insolation could support a very
modest cu field, especially to the north near FKL/DUJ where
low-level moisture might linger. But this should pose little
impact to aviation.
.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions and rain potential return Sunday as a cold front
approaches the area. Lake-enhanced snow showers will be common
during the week in the FKL/DUJ areas, as well as in the ridges
of swrn PA.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...WM/Milcarek
SHORT TERM...Milcarek
LONG TERM...Milcarek
AVIATION...Cermak/Kramar
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
152 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A departing trough across the western U.S. will push rain chances
out of our area by morning. Our weather will turn drier and
breezier through the weekend into early next week as a brief area
of high pressure builds across the West. This will lead to
locally gusty Santa Ana winds and high temperatures near average.
An area of low pressure will move into the State by the middle of
next week. Confidence is increasing that this system may stick
around into later next week, brining cooler, windier and
potentially wetter weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)...Broad onshore flow
continues as a large area of low pressure centered over the
Intermountain West moves slowly eastward. A small coastal eddy
offshore continues to generate areas of clouds and light showers
this afternoon. HRRR model shows agreeable isolated showers
through the night, mostly along the coastal slopes of the San
Bernardino Mountains, where some areas may see up to an additional.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
1/4" of rain. Most other areas west of the mountains will see very
light if any additional rainfall amounts.
Pressure gradients will turn offshore starting Saturday morning,
leading to north and easterly winds as the large trough pushes
into the Rockies and Great Plains. These Santa Ana winds will be
strongest on Sunday and locally gusty along the coastal slopes
and below passes, especially the Cajon Pass, per latest hi-res
guidance. Parts of the Inland Empire will see winds gusts 20-35
MPH, while areas near passes will see gusts 30-50 MPH. As high
pressure and drier air set in, we will also see cooler nights with
morning lows in the upper 20s and low 30s across the high desert,
the teens near Big Bear Lake, and upper 30s and 40s west of the
mountains. The offshore pattern will occur through Tuesday, where
lighter winds are expected by Monday and Tuesday as well as high
temperatures near average.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through End of Next Week)...
Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on an area of low
pressure impacting our region through the middle and end of next
week. Lower heights start to make an appearance across California
on Wednesday, increasing onshore flow and cooling. Ensemble model
clusters show a consensus of lower height anomalies staying in
place across our region through the end of the week next week,
which would support a more unsettled pattern of cooler and
potentially wetter weather. Looking at global models and their
ensembles, this picture rings true, painting this area of low
pressure impacting the West Coast. The confidence on the timing
and exact placement details of this system are still on the low
end, but we may see this troughing pattern bring opportunity for
multiple small waves of precipitation. NBM POPs looked
reasonable, showing a modest chance of rain and mountain snow for
the latter half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
242045Z...Coast/Valleys/Coastal Slopes...Multiple cloud layers with
bases ranging from 1000-3500+ ft MSL, obscuring coastal mountain
slopes into tonight. ISO SHRA possible through 09Z Sat, most likely
near the mountains. Low cloud bases above 3500 ft MSL expected for
most areas 00Z Sat-09Z Sat, becoming clear into Sat AM. After 12Z
Sat, E-NE winds expected below passes and canyons into the valleys.
Local gusts 35-40 kt in wind prone locations.
Desert Slopes/Deserts...SCT-BKN high clouds with bases 8000-10000 ft
MSL through Sat AM becoming clear. Unrestricted vis expected through
Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Morning high tides just over 6.5 ft and elevated surf from a long
period west-northwest swell may lead to minor tidal overflow Sunday
and Monday mornings. Low-lying beach parking lots and boardwalks
will be most impacted. Morning high tides are expectd at 7:37 AM on
Sunday and 8:10 AM on Monday for Newport. For La Jolla, morning high
tides are expected 7:32 AM on Sunday and 8:06 AM Monday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from late Saturday night through Monday
morning for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County
Coastal Areas.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...CO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
947 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 946 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023
High clouds will continue to increase as upper level low slowly
moves across the Central Rockies tonight into Saturday. Shallow
cold airmass has spread over much of the area but thickening
clouds cover will keep temps from dropping too much tonight. The
forecast for tonight continues to trend well and no updates will
be needed.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023
The shallow cool air in place tonight will begin to erode from
the east and south during the day on Saturday and an inverted
surface trough will develop over eastern OK ahead of a more
substantial push of colder air that will occur with the passing of
an upper trough Saturday night into Sunday. Lift from this system
will bring precip (mainly rain on the warm side of the freezing
line) to the region by Saturday afternoon, continuing thru
Saturday night. Forcing along the advancing ~850mb frontogenetic
zone, strongest to our west/north, will be weakening some as it
moves east into our area Sat night, so precip intensity/amounts
should trend downward as the system moves across the forecast
area. The HRRR shows more showery type precip across the south and
east Saturday night into Sunday morning as the warm conveyor
precip gets going ahead of advancing upper trough, and that was
reflected in the grids. Near the back edge of the advancing precip
shield, temps near the ground will become cold enough to support
a mix or change over to snow west of highway 75, and some light
accums (less than a half inch on grassy surfaces) remain forecast
across western portions of Osage and Pawnee counties. Bottom
line...no travel impact is expected across the forecast area from
this event.
Quiet weather can be expected for several days in the wake of the
weekend storm with NW flow aloft dominating. A gradual warming
trend will get going next work week as a transition to a SW flow
pattern occurs. By Thursday, southerly flow and moisture return
ahead of an ejecting upper trough will bring our next chance for
rain. Some slight chance thunder probs were also introduced in the
south, and that may need to be expanded and increased with later
updates.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023
Ongoing VFR conditions will persist with increasing cloud cover
through the period though ceilings remain above impactful levels.
Light precip will spread into NE OK tomorrow afternoon with light
showers possibly extending toward NE OK terminals during the
afternoon. No aviation impact is expected through late afternoon
and precip coverage will increase beyond this forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 31 51 31 45 / 0 20 90 0
FSM 34 53 38 49 / 0 0 60 10
MLC 34 56 35 48 / 0 10 70 0
BVO 25 48 26 44 / 0 40 90 0
FYV 27 51 31 44 / 0 0 70 20
BYV 30 48 36 44 / 0 0 70 20
MKO 34 53 34 45 / 0 10 80 10
MIO 27 49 31 43 / 0 20 90 10
F10 32 52 32 45 / 0 20 80 0
HHW 35 58 40 50 / 0 0 50 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07