Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/24/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
948 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure maintains dry weather and generally seasonable
temperatures tonight through early Friday afternoon. A strong
but dry cold front then ushers in an unseasonably cold airmass
Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures moderate Sunday ahead
of low pressure which will bring rain Sunday night into Monday.
Behind the departing low, below normal temperatures and mainly
dry conditions look to dominate into early December.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
945 PM update...
Strato-cu more expansive than much of the guidance is
suggesting and covers much of central and western New Eng with
some clouds also developing in eastern MA. RAP 850 mb RH field
doing a reasonable job picking up on this cloud cover although
moisture is not quite far enough east. The RAP does indicate
decreasing low level moisture overnight which should lead to
clouds gradually eroding from east to west after midnight. The
exception would be across western MA where clouds may linger
through the night. Adjusted sky grids for current obs and near
term trends and adjusted temps upward a bit due to the cloud
cover with lows ranging through the 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update:
High pressure still is in control for a good part of Fri,
supplying continued dry weather and several hrs of sun. However
will see varying degrees of mid to high level clouds as a
deamplifying impulse now located in the Arklatex region moves
into the mid-Atlc waters by early Fri aftn. Thus as this wave
passes well to our south with little fanfare, skies may turn to
more of a filtered sun look, especially the further south one
goes, during the mid morning to early aftn.
Exerting a bigger influence on our weather for later Fri and into
Fri night is a strong but dry cold front, now working its way
through Ontario and the UP of MI. Most NWP shows this feature
surging SE from interior New England to the southern coast during
the midaftn to early evening period. This feature heralds the
arrival of colder and even drier air that is forecast for the
weekend. While its passage will be a dry one, it will bring falling
afternoon temps and dewpoints, along with a increasing/breezy NW
wind shift (e.g. gusts to 30 mph). 925 mb temps start 18z Fri at -1
to +1C, then fall steadily to readings around -7 to -9C thru 12z
Sat! Thus for the nighttime hrs, expect a cold and breezy night with
lows in the upper teens to mid 20s for most, except upper 20s along
the immediate southern coast. Will also note that forecast
windchills, while not frigid, will be running around 10 to 15
degrees above zero.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points...
* After an unseasonably cold start to the weekend temperatures will
Moderate Sunday and Monday before colder air once again arrives
for much of next week.
* Dry and quiet weather expected for much of the extended forecast
period except for widespread rain Sunday night and Monday
Cold advection on NW flow will bring below normal temperatures to
SNE to kick off the weekend as zonal flow lingers overhead with high
pressure building in at the surface. Though temperatures overhead
will be moderating throughout the day on Saturday as flow begins to
back to the SW, 925 mb temps initially in the -7 to -8C range will
yield high temperatures in the upper 30s. SW flow Saturday night
brings in high level moisture (clouds) which together with WAA will
begin to moderate temperatures as we move into the second half of
the weekend. Dry and warmer on Sunday under high pressure with highs
in the mid to upper 40s. Clouds thicken and lower through the day on
Sunday thanks to warm advection ahead of the next storm system, but
it isn`t until after 8 PM Sunday that we`ll see rain overspread the
region. At the moment temperature profiles would support only rain
for the vast majority if not all of SNE. As mentioned by the
previous forecaster, the northern stream trough causing this
unsettled weather fails to phase with a southern stream disturbance
ahead of it and thus remains fairly progressive; the surface lows
don`t strengthen/phase until reaching northern New England later
Monday night. We expect a fairly widespread rainfall with PWATs near
1 inch and a robust 45-55 kt low level jet which should lead to
rainfall amounts on either side of an inch; ensemble guidance puts
the chance of AOA 1 inch of rain at 20-50% centered over southeast
MA. The dry slot pushes in by Monday afternoon cutting off rainfall
for the second half of the day and leading to clearing skies as
cooler NW flow kicks in. Cooler and drier air is the story for much
of next week, though confidence in detail is low as there is
disagreement as to how robust the high pressure overhead will
be.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Tonight through Friday Night: High confidence.
VFR tonight with WNW/W winds 5-10 kt.
VFR continues on Fri, though will see increasing high to
midlevel clouds south of a roughly HFD-PVD-TAN line by late
morning to midaftn, with W winds 8-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt.
At the same time, a dry cold front will surge SE from interior
New England to the southern coastline ~18z Fri to 00z Sat,
bringing a windshift from W/WNW to NW and increasing speeds to
10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt late aftn thru the overnight,
perhaps near 30 kt coastal areas and Cape Cod/Islands.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR thru period. NW
gusts low-20s kt range thru about 20z, then becoming WNW around
5-10 kt late-aftn to tonight. Windshift to the NW around 20-22z
Fri with cold frontal passage, with gusts to 25 kt.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR thru period. NW
gusts to 20 kt thru 20z, becoming WNW 5-10 kt tonight and around
5 kt overnight. Windshift to NW with cold frontal passage Fri
~18-20z with gusts 20-25 kt.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 30 kt. RA, patchy BR.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts
up to 35 kt. RA likely, patchy BR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Overall high forecast confidence.
Small craft advisories have been cancelled along the nearshore
marine areas, although they continue for the outer waters until
12z Fri due to leftover 5-7 ft seas that are expected to
gradually subside.
For tonight expect NW gusts to decrease to 10-20 kt with seas
decreasing to 3-5 ft. Should see below-SCA conditions for
several hrs on Fri (W winds 10-20 kt, seas 2-4 ft).
However another period of SCAs appears possible for later Fri
and Fri night on most waters, as a cold front ushers NW gusts
around 25 kt or a tick higher, with seas on the outer waters
building into the 4-6 ft range/2-3 ft nearshore.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain, patchy
fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely, patchy fog. Areas of visibility
1 to 3 nm.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Thanksgiving Day Records
Last Measurable Snowfall
BOS 0.3 inches on 11/27/2014
BDL 0.5 inches on 11/27/2014
PVD 0.3 inches on 11/27/2014
ORH 1.1 inches on 11/27/2014
Record Snowfall
BOS 4.4 inches on 11/23/1989
BDL 7.6 inches on 11/25/1971
PVD 8.0 inches on 11/23/1989
ORH 14.8 inches on 11/25/1971
Record Precipitation
BOS 2.59 inches on 11/25/1971
BDL 1.56 inches on 11/25/1971
PVD 3.31 inches on 11/23/2006
ORH 1.49 inches on 11/23/2006
Record High Temperature
BOS 71 degrees on 11/20/1941
BDL 69 degrees on 11/30/1933
PVD 70 degrees on 11/20/1941
ORH 69 degrees on 11/20/1941
Record Low Temperature
BOS 11 degrees on 11/27/1873
BDL 9 degrees on 11/22/2018
PVD 14 degrees on 11/30/1905 and 11/23/1972
ORH 7 degrees on 11/22/2018
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/BW
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Loconto/BW
MARINE...Loconto/BW
CLIMATE...BL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
621 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2023
For the latest ESTF update, some minor temperatures changes across
the area based on latest obs, otherwise forecast remains on track.
The latest CAM runs of the HRRR, RAP and NAMNest all show some light
snowfall beginning to enter the CWA around 06z-09z Friday, then
picking up in intensity for much of the CWA by 10z-12z Friday.
The latest RAP40 500mb analysis and mid level water vapor imagery
are showing the main low currently diving south-southeast towards
western Utah. There remains an amplified ridge nosing NW over the
western Plains. The upper flow between the two systems is creating a
N-NW flow aloft.
At the surface, much of the area is seeing northeast flow, but
guidance is showing a shift to more of an upslope easterly flow
towards 06z Friday. This will allow more low level moisture to feed
into the region. The current regional radar is showing most if not
all QPF is moving on a south to north track at this time not
impacting the CWA. The slow progression eastward does increase
overnight as the upper ridge breaks down and the aforementioned
upper low moves further into the central Rockies.
As a result based on current data, still looking for two phases of
snowfall, the one Friday with a break followed by the moisture
associated with the upper low as it swings through the CWA Saturday-
Saturday night. No change at this time to forecasted snow amounts.
Will continue to monitor guidance/system trends for any further
slowing of the system.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 112 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2023
The latest upper air analysis shows a deepening trough over the
Great Basin. Water vapor imagery showed a large mass of higher
water vapor over the western CONUS with the trough. At the surface
the cold front which moved through last night was crossing into
Oklahoma.
For the rest of today the northeast winds will become light around
sunset as mixing ends. Cloud cover will continue to thicken ahead
of the approaching storm system.
Tonight winds will be light from the east to northeast. Overnight
the environment will begin to saturate down toward the surface as
the storm system nears.
Latest model data has slowed the start time of the snow moving in.
Current forecast has the snow starting to enter the forecast area
after midnight. However new data is indicating that may be too
early by a couple of hours. Based on this, am thinking snow should
be over the western half to third of the forecast area by sunrise
Friday.
Friday snow will continue to spread east across the forecast area.
During the morning the first round of snow will move through the
forecast area. This round will be focused over the northern half of
the forecast area. Up to three inches of snow is currently forecast
for the day, with the higher amounts in Nebraska. What has changed
with this round is the lift associated with it is much weaker than
what was seen yesterday. This could be due to the minor short wave
trough associated with it being shallower than what was forecast
yesterday. In addition the environment is much more stable than
what was seen yesterday. Both of these changes could be due to the
trough not deepening as much as what was forecast yesterday before
moving over the forecast area.
Friday night there may be some light snow over the forecast area due
to weak lift persisting through the night. Am not anticipating much
accumulation or impacts from this very light snow.
Toward sunrise the next round of snow may begin to move into the
southeast part of the forecast area from the southwest. Lapse rates
in the dendritic zone become or near dry adiabatic, very unstable.
In addition saturated geostrophic equivalent potential vorticity
develops, which will allow the snow formation process to be even
more efficient with the increasing lift and instability.
Saturday the second round of snow continues across the southeast
part of the forecast area. Am forecasting up to five inches of snow
for the day, with most of the snow over the southeast part of the
forecast area. Southwest Kansas looks to have the bulk of this
round. Despite the latest snow forecast shifting more over the
southeast part of the forecast area, continue to wonder how much
snow we will actually see with this round. Looking at CIPS Analogs,
the best match using the GFS from yesterday`s run is a very close
match pattern-wise to what this system is forecast to look like.
That system produced over a foot of snow in Southwest Kansas. Am
thinking a similar setup is likely with this current storm system.
With this in mind, the snow amounts for the southeast part of the
forecast area could be too high (if the system continues to shift
the snow southeast), or too low if the forecast lift and
instability are realized over the southeast part of the forecast
area.
During the afternoon the snow ends from west to east. Highs for the
day will warm some from the night.
Saturday night the sky will clear out, making a perfect setup for
radiational cooling. Lows will be dependent on how low the dew
points fall in the cold air.
Confidence in snow amounts: Confidence is between moderate and
high. The southeast shift is very reasonable given the trajectory
the storm system is going as it moves into the forecast area. Based
on past events, and given this pattern is resembling split flow, am
thinking the snow amounts will continue to shift southeast. A band
of snow could certainly setup over the southeast part of the
forecast area producing a narrow corridor of higher snowfall
amounts. Or the current forecast could be correct with around six
inches of snow occurring over the southeast. However am thinking
the more likely scenario is higher snow amounts will continue to
shift southeast.
Timing: Wouldn`t be surprised if the snow ends up starting a couple
hours later than what is forecast. There is snow starting before
the advisory begins. However if the snow does start prior to the
advisory, there will be little to no snow accumulated at that time.
Impacts: Due to there being very little wind with this snow, am not
anticipating much for impacts besides the typical snowpacked, icy
roadways. Snow rates during each round of snowfall will likely
reduce visibility some. The second round of snow on Saturday will
likely cause more of an impact in regard to snow on the roads
and visibility than the one on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2023
At the beginning of the extended period, forecast guidance shows the
CWA having a west-northwesterly flow on Sunday morning being
underneath the base of an upper air trough whose axis is over the
far eastern portion of the CWA. By Sunday evening, models turn the
flow more westerly as the trough progresses eastward with an upper
air ridge trailing it over the western CONUS. On Monday, model
guidance looks to diverge a bit in the overall upper air pattern
with the GFS keeping the westerly flow over the CWA through most of
the day and then turning northerly overnight. As an alternative, the
ECMWF turns the upper air flow northwesterly by the afternoon hours
with the forward portion of the western ridge reaching over the CWA
a bit quicker compared to the GFS solution. Going through Tuesday,
long term models look to line up a bit better by the afternoon hours
with the CWA having a northwesterly flow being underneath the
forward portion of the ridge. On Wednesday, the GFS and ECMWF
display different solutions in the upper air pattern going forward
as the ECMWF has the axis of the ridge moving over the CWA in the
morning allowing the flow over the CWA to turn southwesterly in the
afternoon and through Thursday. Alternatively, the GFS delays the
progression of the western trough and keeps the northwesterly
flow over the CWA through Wednesday and into Thursday afternoon
when the axis of the ridge passes over the CWA. Will continue to
monitor this evolution of the upper air pattern to see if models
start to show better agreement in future runs.
At the surface, conditions look to stay dry throughout the long term
period with surface highs seen near the CWA during portions of each
day that limit precipitation by keeping moisture away. This will
also cause minimal cloud cover through most of the long term period
allowing for warmer daytime temperatures. Models do show some breezy
northwesterly winds gusting up to 25-30 kts on Sunday afternoon with
a decent surface pressure gradient across the CWA. However, fire
weather does not look to be a concern on Sunday or any other day
during the extended period as minimum RH values expect to stay
above 20% each day.
Daytime highs for the Tri-State Area are expected to be in the
middle to upper 30s on Sunday and in the upper 30s to lower 40s
range on Monday. Daytime highs on Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast
to be in the middle 40s to lower 50s followed by daytime high
temperatures in the lower to upper 40s on Thursday. Overnight lows
on Sunday look to range between the upper single digits and the
lower teens allowing for minimum wind chill values between a few
degrees on either side of the 0 degree mark in the region. Monday`s
overnight low expect to be in the lower to middle teens while lows
for the remaining nights look to range between the middle teens and
lower 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 324 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2023
Both terminals will see VFR conditions through about 11z-14z
Friday, but as snow begins around the second portion of the
forecast, a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions will ensue with 3-4sm
visibility in light snow through about 11z-14z before shifting
lower to around 1sm to 1 1/2sm. Ceilings MVFR around OVC015-025.
Winds, 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts through about 02z-04z Friday,
then east-northeast around 10kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Friday to 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ Saturday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-
042.
CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 5 PM MST Saturday
for COZ090>092.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Friday to 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ Saturday for NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...076
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
942 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south through the area Friday night into
Saturday morning, bringing a small chance of rain to the coast
ahead of it during Friday. Cool high pressure will follow and
extend into the Carolinas Saturday through Sunday. The next
cold front, accompanied with clouds, will push through Monday
followed by cold Canadian high pressure with below normal temps
expected into the mid-week period of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Temperatures dropped off quickly earlier this evening before the
cloud cover started to have an affect. Now readings have
stabilized and have actually risen in some places. There could
be another brief period of clearing in a few hours, but the lav
and HRRR guidance is painting steady or increasing hourly
temperatures as well as persistence with the cloud cover. All in
all I maintained the expected lows with the caveat if there are
any subsequent changes needed it will probably be an upward
adjustment.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak surface high pressure prevails across the area this afternoon
with a southern stream system across southeast TX directing high
cloudiness towards the region. The feature across southeast TX will
de-amplify as it lifts northeastward and help shift the moisture
plume toward the area. Low-levels remain mostly dry on Friday which
would limit rainfall chances. Currently advertising 15-25% PoPs
primarily for coastal areas with low pressure developing far off the
SC coast. Given the expected cloud cover during Friday and lack of
any WAA favor highs a few degrees below climatology.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A weakening shortwave trough will be off the coast by Friday night, with a very weak
wave on Saturday afternoon. A cut-off low over Utah begins to open up on Saturday,
leading to slight ridging over our area on Saturday night.
At the surface, a cold front will be moving off the coast Friday night, with cold air
damming beginning to develop over the Carolinas. Expect cooler temperatures with high
temperatures in the middle 50s. Lows will reach the mid-40s Friday night and mid-30s
inland to the lower 40s along the coast. No precipitable is expected but sprinkles are
expected along the coast as a low pressure center move north off
the Carolina Coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The 500 mb pattern shows a trough over the upper plains on Sunday and will rotate
north and east of the area by Tuesday. A shortwave in the northwest flow will cross
the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday, and the third disturbance will approach the
Carolina from the northwest.
At the surface, a complex system will push a cold front off the coast Sunday night. A
second front will cross the area late Tuesday, and a third cold front will approach
the region on Thursday.
The GFS model shows the deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and brings it into the
coastal Carolinas on Sunday night. This moisture, combined with the frontal passage,
will provide the ingredients for a chance of showers. Behind the 1st front, the
moisture will be limited, and no precipitation is expected Monday through Thursday.
The impact of these fronts will be a cold surge of Canadian air, and high temperatures
are expected to be 6 to 10 degrees below normal. Lows will drop into the lower 30s
beginning Monday night, with the coldest night seeing temps fall into the upper 20s
inland on Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Mid and
high level cloudiness moving across should have little to no
impact with regards to aviation concerns.
Extended Outlook... Low pressure along the coast may bring
periodic flight restrictions to coastal terminals late Friday
through early Sunday. A cold front may bring some additional
flight restrictions Sunday night into Monday before clearing
occurs Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Friday... Weak surface ridging will be in place across
the area through tonight, Rather quiet weather is expected
across the adjacent waters as a result during that time. Low
pressure is expected to develop during Friday far off the SC
coast which will support Nly flow with speeds generally around
10 kt. Seas are expected to be around 2 ft tonight through the
period with increasing chances for rainfall, especially across
the outer waters during Friday.
Friday Night through Tuesday...a cold front will cross the
coastal waters Friday night, and a second cold front will
approach the waters on Tuesday. Seas are expected to range
between 1 and 2 feet early Friday night, and with the cold front
passage on Friday night, the seas will build to 3 to 5 feet,
with 6 footers possible 10 to 20 miles off the coast. Small
Craft Conditions are possible on Saturday and Saturday night.
Seas will diminish to 2 to 3 feet by Tuesday. Strongest winds
from the north- northwest of 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25
knots are expected around daybreak on Sunday before falling back
to 15 knots on Saturday night.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...RH/SRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1252 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2023
.SYNOPSIS...A cold, dynamic system will push through the western
CONUS tonight, returning a chance of precipitation to the
southern Great Basin and eastern Mohave County. This weekend into
early next week will be characterized by cooler temperatures and
breezy north winds. &&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday.
An upper level system will continue to drift east into central Utah
tonight and Friday, brushing parts of the Southern Great Basin and
northwest Arizona as it does so. Precipitation tonight will focus
mainly on central Nye county in Lincoln County as the trough
axis shifts through central Nevada. Of note- HREF and HRRR runs all
want to bring a band of precipitation through parts of Lincoln
County between 4pm to 10pm PT. While this feature should not be
overly impressive, anyone driving on area roadways north of Pioche
tonight could see a brief shower that could wet roads as it moves
through this evening or early tonight. Snow levels during this time
period will be around 6000ft and temperatures will fall to around
freezing, so some snow will be possible and add to the travel
hazards even if it doesn`t accumulate. Otherwise, no precipitation
impacts expected with the overnight precipitation as moisture in the
low levels will be lacking. Snow levels will drop to around 5000ft
so an inch or two of new snow is possible in the terrain.
On Friday, the low is expected to deepen shift lowly into central
Utah. As its strengthens, better dynamics will come together with
increasing vorticity advection into the Southern Great Basin and
northern Mohave County and cold core temperatures aloft. However,
moisture will remain rather low. A brief uptick in PWATS is expected
Friday morning in Mohave County but PWATs quickly go back to below
normal levels after 18Z. The best chance for precipitation on Friday
will be in Mohave County in the morning, mainly in northern Mohave.
Probabilities for impactful rain and snow are low to none as light
precipitation is the most likely scenario and snow remains in areas
above 6000ft. A brief uptick in precipitation chances is possible in
eastern Lincoln County Friday afternoon as the center of the cold
low will be overhead, but will limited moisture no impacts are
expected.
Precipitation will exit to the east Friday night and a dry forecast
is likely for the weekend. However, cold northerly flow will
dominate the weather pattern as the upper level system stalls its
eastward movement. Temperatures will drop to 5 to 10 degrees below
normal for Friday and remain there through the weekend. Overnight
low temperatures will be coldest Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The potential for the first freeze of the season is possible in
parts of eastern San Bernardino County as well as the northeast
corner of Clark County. Headlines may be necessary for those areas
however there is some temperature spread noted an many ensembles so
will hold off for now. Breezy northwest winds will develop each
afternoon, but the only possible impacts would be for boaters on the
Colorado RIver Valley and lakes as winds may result in choppy waves.
.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Thursday.
A cold air mass will linger over our region Sunday and early next
week and will be the most noteworthy weather concern... which
isn`t saying a lot given the time of year. Subfreezing overnight
temperatures will be common across much of the Mojave Desert
region early Sunday morning. The latest NBM indicates a 60-70%
chance of a first freeze on the outlying areas of the Las Vegas
Valley near places like Nellis Air Force Base, west Summerlin and
Seven Hills/Anthem. High temperatures only creep upward a degree
or two each day from Sunday through Tuesday under as an amplified
ridge over the Pacific Northwest slowly moves inland and settles
over the Western States. North winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30
mph will persist around Laughlin-Bullhead City and Mohave Valley
Sunday and Monday then gradually decrease Tuesday. The rest of the
region will see general light north winds less than 15 mph.
Medium range ensembles indicate the weather pattern becomes more
progressive as a weak Pacific system moves inland Wednesday and
opens the door for additional upstream energy and moisture
possibly spreading into at least central and northern California
by Thursday and set the stage for unsettled weather going into
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light easterly to northeasterly winds
remain for the rest of the afternoon. There is a possibility that
winds will take an occasional southeasterly direction. After sunset,
winds should turn to the southwest, remaining under 10 knots. Once
again, wind direction may occasionally turn to the northwest. After
sunrise tomorrow, winds increase out of the northwest with speeds
reaching 10 knots or greater. FEW clouds with bases around 10kft
remain through tomorrow morning.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light winds at KBIH turn to the north this afternoon,
becoming gusty overnight and into tomorrow morning. For the Las
Vegas Valley, winds remain diurnal through the night, but increase
to over 10 knots out of the northwest tomorrow morning, lasting
throughout the day. Gusty westerly winds are expected at KDAG
through this evening. Winds in the Colorado River Valley increase to
over 10 knots out of the south this afternoon, becoming calm again
overnight. FEW clouds with bases around 10kft remain through
tomorrow morning in the Las Vegas Valley, and SCT clouds with bases
around 6kft remain at KBIH through tonight.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Adair
AVIATION...Meltzer
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