Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/23/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
906 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
Made a few tweaks to the rain forecast for tonight through
Thursday. Started the rain across the southern CWA a couple of
hours early based on current radar trends and latest HRRR and RAP
output showing the rain moving into the southern areas around
midnight. Also, based on latest CRP 00Z sounding and forecast
sounding profiles, the precip type has been changed to light
rain. All of the moisture will be in the mid and upper levels
tonight with no instability. The only lifting mechanism will be
the upper level short wave that will be tracking across S TX
overnight through Thursday. Thus, precip type will be stratiform
vs convective.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 301 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
A cool and mostly quiet night is expected tonight ahead of an
upper level low. The upper level low will reach South Texas late
tonight/early Thursday morning, with isolated showers developing
from southwest to northeast as it moves across the area. Chances
for precipitation will diminish through Thursday afternoon as the
low moves east of the area.
Low temperatures will be chilly tonight and again Thursday night.
While most places will be in the 40s, a few low-lying locations
could touch freezing overnight. Temperatures will be in the upper
50s to mid 60s for Thanksgiving Day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
Key Messages:
- Cold front Sunday into Sunday night brings a low to medium (20-
40%) chance of showers through the weekend
- Increased risk of coastal flooding early next week
- A low chance (10-20%) of freezing temperatures over the inland
Coastal Plains early Tuesday morning
A large mid-level low north of the Great Lakes will induce troughing
across much of the Central and Eastern CONUS as it shifts eastward
and pushes a strong cold front through South Texas Sunday into
Sunday night. Dry conditions will dominate Friday through Friday
night before low-level flow shifts southeasterly and increases PWATs
to around the 75th percentile. Increasing moisture will allow for a
low chance (20%) of showers Saturday across the area, increasing to
a low to medium chance (20-40%) Saturday night as a pre-frontal
trough shifts winds out of the north Sunday morning. Rain chances
decrease through the day on Sunday as the cold front pushes through
and drier air filters quickly in its wake, dropping PWAT values down
to near or below normal. Rain-free conditions will likely persist
Monday through Tuesday.
Highs Friday through Sunday will range from the upper 60s to lower
70s with lows Friday night and Saturday night in the mid 50s to
lower 60s. Temperatures then drop significantly behind the front
with efficient cold air advection; lows Sunday night through Tuesday
night drop well into the 40s inland with highs Monday and Tuesday
only in the mid to upper 50s. NBM contains a low 10-20% chance of
freezing temperatures over the inland Coastal Plains early Tuesday
morning.
New moon on Monday in combination with strong northeasterly winds
enacting Ekman transport will increase the risk for coastal flooding
along Gulf-facing beaches of the Middle Texas Coast Sunday through
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
For the 06Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through most of the
TAF period with CIGs above 4kft. However, some guidance indicated
CIGs dropping to MVFR levels in the afternoon, at least for the
eastern TAF sites. The clouds are expected to become scattered,
thus, conditions should remain at VFR levels through Thursday
afternoon and evening. Beyond the TAF period early Friday morning,
fog may become an issue with light winds becoming onshore and
ushering in higher dewpoints.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
Weak northerly flow will shift the west Thursday, then shift back
to the northeast on Thursday night. Isolated to scattered showers
are possible tonight and Thursday before coming to end Thursday
evening. East northeasterly flow will strengthen to weak to
moderate Friday through Friday night, becoming moderate to
occasionally strong on Saturday. Weak to moderate southeasterly
flow returns briefly Saturday night before shifting north
northeasterly and strengthening to Small Craft Advisory conditions
in association with a passing cold front Sunday through Monday. A
20 to 40 percent chance of showers Friday through Monday with
only a slight chance (20%) of thunderstorms Sunday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 50 62 49 69 / 40 30 0 0
Victoria 45 59 45 67 / 20 20 0 10
Laredo 50 65 49 71 / 30 30 0 0
Alice 49 64 46 67 / 40 30 0 0
Rockport 53 63 52 68 / 20 30 0 0
Cotulla 49 65 45 69 / 20 20 0 0
Kingsville 50 63 47 69 / 40 30 0 10
Navy Corpus 53 65 56 69 / 30 30 0 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...TE/81
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
543 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 150 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
RAP analysis today depicts a closed upper low near the SW coast of
Mexico, which is forecast to slowly cross just to our south tomorrow
as it begins to transition back into an open wave. Meanwhile surface
high pressure centered nearby will also push off to the northeast,
with today`s northerly flow quickly weakening and being replaced by
weak SSW-erlies for Thanksgiving Day. In the meantime, today`s
shaping up rather nicely with ample sunshine and temperatures rising
into the low to mid 60s in most areas.
Overnight, we`ll see the mid-level cloud deck associated with this
upper low filter in from the south. It still appears likely that
cloud cover won`t reach all of our Hill Country areas until close to
sunrise, so I`ve lowered minimum temperatures into the mid-30s for
some areas and can`t rule out another light freeze in low-lying
areas of the Hill Country or northern I-35 corridor. The incoming
system will try to squeeze out some light rain showers on
Thanksgiving day, however there`s a rather deep (12-18 kft) surface
layer with large dew point depressions and it seems likely that most
precipitation will evaporate on it`s way to the surface (virga).
Still, will probably see a few isolated sprinkles or very light
showers during the day across first our southern and then eastern
counties as the vort max passes by.
Cloud cover will keep temps cool on Thanksgiving across many eastern
areas, maxing out in the upper 50s, while some low to mid 60s are
forecast for the Rio Grande Plains and a few other spots in the Hill
Country. That cloud deck should exit east through the evening,
although additional high cloud development is possible overnight.
Another cool night is forecast, with temperatures again in the upper
30s to mid 40s by sunrise on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
The upper flow over Texas at the start of the long term period will
nearly zonal with a slight cyclonic turn. The low level flow will be
from the east to southeast. This combination will mean dry weather
for Friday with warmer temperatures. Highs Friday will be five to ten
degrees warmer than Thursday. The upper level flow will continue to
be westerly to south-southwesterly through most of this period with
most of the active weather staying north of the region. There will be
a little more activity in the low levels. Deeper moisture will move
into the region Friday night and Saturday as the flow turns more
southerly. This southerly flow will bring an old frontal boundary
back north as a warm front Saturday. This will be followed by a cold
front moving down from the north Saturday night. The moisture surge
from the Gulf combined with the frontal movements will bring chances
for rain starting Saturday morning continuing through Sunday morning.
The best chances will be Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday
morning. Rain chances will be highest over the eastern half of the
CWA where the moisture will be deepest. The Rio Grande region will
likely remain dry with little moisture and weak lift. Drier air will
move in Sunday and Monday returning dry weather. The cold front
Sunday will bring cooler air with highs Tuesday in the 40s and 50s.
Weak moisture return Wednesday may bring some light rain to eastern
areas, but chances will be low.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
VFR conditions are forecast for all area terminals through the
period. Light and variable winds are forecast for all sites this
evening through Thursday mid morning. Southerly winds around 6 to 10
knots are forecast to dominate the local area sites for the rest of
the period. Upper level moisture will be present for most of the
forecast period as an upper level low pressure system over western
Mexico moves to the east and across the Deep South/middle Texas
coast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 43 61 42 66 / 0 10 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 37 59 39 66 / 0 10 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 41 59 42 67 / 0 10 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 39 62 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 42 66 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 37 60 41 64 / 0 10 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 42 60 41 67 / 0 10 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 40 58 40 66 / 0 10 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 40 57 43 66 / 0 20 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 43 58 43 66 / 0 10 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 44 59 43 68 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...17
Long-Term...04
Aviation...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
924 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023
.Key Messages...
- Decreasing Clouds overnight
- Quiet weather conditions through Saturday
- Mild Thanksgiving, then seasonably cool this weekend
- Chance of rain and snow showers Sunday
- Well below normal temperatures expected early next week
&&
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 924 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023
Surface analysis late this evening shows high pressure centered over
eastern TX and LA. A surface ridge extended northeast through the
middle Mississippi Valley and then to Indiana and Ohio. Pesky low
clouds were found over much of Central Indiana, while adjacent areas
were mostly clear. Winds were from the west with dew points in the
middle 30s.
HRRR cloud cover suggests the gradual eastward progression of the
cloud cover, eventually dissipating through the overnight hours.
Based upon GOES16, this cloud shield has shown slow progression
eastward through the late afternoon and evening, along with some
slow deterioration. Thus we will expect clouds to continue to linger
across Central Indiana through the middle of the overnight period,
with clearing arriving around 09Z-10Z. Overall this will lead to
skies becoming mostly clear and help temperatures from falling
initially. However with the late loss of cloud coverage there will
still be enough time for temperatures to fall to the lower and
middle 30s for lows.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023
TODAY...
Good travel conditions expected this evening and Thanksgiving.
.Rest of today and tonight...
Latest satellite imagery and observations this afternoon show areas
of low clouds stuck across the Wabash Valley and much of western
Indiana while a scattered cu deck has formed in Eastern Indiana
where stronger boundary layer heating has taken place. Wind
sheltered and low lying areas, like the Wabash Valley, are holding
onto low level moisture much longer than what guidance has suggested
as the November sun angle is quite weak, inhibiting much low level
mixing there. For this reason, keeping a more pessimistic forecast
for this area with cooler highs in the lower 40s, while eastern
Indiana warms to near 50 degrees with partly to mostly sunny skies.
Surface high pressure becomes centered over the Tennessee Valley
tonight while the low level ridge axis pushes east, helping to push
stagnant cloud cover east of the region as well. Winds shift from
the NW to SW overnight and remain elevated around 5-10 mph. This
should limit the overall fog threat tonight. Despite elevated winds,
temperatures will likely plummet towards the dew points into the low
to mid 30s across the region, with wind sheltered and low lying
valleys a few degrees colder.
.Thanksgiving Day...
Weak upper northwest flow pattern transitions into a quasi-zonal
flow pattern by tomorrow with the main polar jet extending west to
east from the Dakotas to Maine keeping the main energy and storm
track to the north. Low to mid level ridge axis just west of the
region this evening pushes eastward tomorrow leading to increasing
southwesterly flow and warm air advection ahead of a moisture
starved front. Area of low pressure within the exit region of the
jet streak to the north traverses the US/Canadian border tomorrow
with the aforementioned front extending southwest into the Great
Lakes and Indiana. BUFKIT profiles show a very dry environment with
little moisture advection ahead of the system, so the main impacts
of the front will be increasing warmer air ahead of it tomorrow and
ushering in a cooler airmass by Friday.
RAP forecast soundings tomorrow show a strong
Surface analysis late this evening shows high pressure centered over eastern TX and LA. A surface ridge extended northeast through the middle Mississippi Valley and then to Indiana and Ohio. Pesky low clouds were found over much of Central Indiana, while adjacent areas were mostly clear. Winds were from the west with dew points in the middle 30s.
HRRR cloud cover suggests the gradual eastward progression of the cloud cover, eventually dissipating through the overnight hours. Based upon GOES16, this cloud shield has shown slow progression eastward through the late afternoon and evening, along with some slow deterioration. Thus we will expect clouds to continue to linger across Central Indiana through the middle of the overnight period, with clearing arriving around 09Z-10Z. Overall this will lead to skies becoming mostly clear and help temperatures from falling initially. However with the late loss of cloud coverage there will still be enough time for temperatures to fall to the lower and middle 30s for lows.
dfsdfs inversion and warm
nose associated with strong warm air advection in the low to mid
levels. This will aid in limiting mixing heights tomorrow afternoon
and likely prevent RH values from plummeting to critical levels for
fire weather concerns. Subsidence under the high and dry air will
allow for mainly sunny skies across the region and ample boundary
layer heating for highs to reach thl hang onto
these MVFR clouds for the first 2-4 hours of the TAe low to mid 50s.
&&
.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023
Thursday night through Saturday...
A dry cold front is expected to move through at the beginning of the
period bringing a much cooler pattern to end the week. Behind the
front, quasi-zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure building in
will provide quiet weather conditions. However, models continue to
show mid-upper level pacific moisture advection which should lead to
increased cloud cover Friday and into early Saturday. Brief ridging
will build in before heights start to fall late Saturday ahead of an
approaching system. Increasing subsidence on Saturday should help to
clear out clouds some. Cold air advection will keep highs in the
upper 30s to near 40F north and around the mi
Surface analysis late this evening shows high pressure centered over eastern TX and LA. A surface ridge extended northeast through the middle Mississippi Valley and then to Indiana and Ohio. Pesky low clouds were found over much of Central Indiana, while adjacent areas were mostly clear. Winds were from the west with dew points in the middle 30s.
HRRR cloud cover suggests the gradual eastward progression of the cloud cover, eventually dissipating through the overnight hours. Based upon GOES16, this cloud shield has shown slow progression eastward through the late afternoon and evening, along with some slow deterioration. Thus we will expect clouds to continue to linger across Central Indiana through the middle of the overnight period, with clearing arriving around 09Z-10Z. Overall this will lead to skies becoming mostly clear and help temperatures from falling initially. However with the late loss of cloud coverage there will still be enough time for temperatures to fall to the lower and middle 30s for lows.
dfsdfs d 40s for south-central
IN.
Saturday night through Wednesday...
An upper trough will progress eastward towards the region late
Saturday night into Sunday. Return flow ahead of the advancing
system should provide sufficient moisture for light precipitation.
With temperatures dropping below freezing across Central Indiana
most locations will likely start off as all snow or a mix of
rain/snow towards daybreak Sunday. Weak warm air advection on Sunday
will complicate precipitation type. Areas across the south are
expected to change over to all rain with a rain/snow mix further
north. There are still uncertainties due to model differences, but
light snow accumulations cannot be completely ruled out on grass or
elevated surfaces for the northern half of central Indiana. Some
light precipitation may linger into the evening before drier air
filters in.
Quiet weather conditions are expected to return Sunday night as high
pressure builds in behind the departing disturbance. Strong cold air
advection will bring well below normal temperatures and a very dry
airmass into the area early next week. Look for highs to remain
in the 30s on Monday. Highs may warm up a few degrees Tuesday, but
another reinforcing shot of cold air aided by a secondary trough
will likely keep temperatures below normal.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 558 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023
Impacts:
- MVFR Cigs through the first 2-3 hours of the TAF period.
- Skies clearing overnight
- W winds shifting to the NW tomorrow
Discussion:
GOES16 continues to show pesky low clouds in the Wabash Valley.
These clouds remained MVFR. Diurnal mixing has failed to clear these
clouds. GOES16 show no sign of deterioration. Thus will hang onto
these MVFR clouds for the first 2-4 hours of the TAF period, and
then re-evaluate. It is a possibility that the clouds may linger
overnight.
Forecast soundings and time heights suggest a dry column developing
overnight and persisting into Thursday. This should trend toward
mostly clear skies. A cold front is expected to pass across Indiana
from the northwest on Thursday afternoon. Moisture with this feature
appears quite limited, Thus VFR with a wind shift to the northwest
is expected tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...Puma
Short Term...CM
Long Term...Melo
Aviation...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
548 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Much colder on Thanksgiving, with snow developing across the Panhandle
into the Sandhills in the evening.
- A long duration (36 - 48 hour) snow event will likely impact
much of western and portions of central Nebraska, beginning
the evening of Thanksgiving and ending late Saturday. Those
with post-holiday travel plans across area should plan
accordingly and monitor future forecasts as hazardous travel
conditions will be likely at times.
- The Winter Storm Watch has been expanded to include southwest,
south central, and portions of north central Nebraska.
- Well-below normal temperatures persist through this weekend
before trending back to just below to near seasonal values
for the middle of next week.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
Recent GOES-16 WV and RAP 500-mb analysis showed broad ridging off
the California coast, extending into the Four Corners region.
Further east of this feature, a positively-tilted upper-level trough
of low pressure was centered over northern Mexico. Another upper-
level trough was noted across the eastern US. Further north of this
feature, a broad upper-level trough was apparent over the Hudson
Bay, with an elongated surface trough extending southwest across the
northern Plains from this feature. A developing upper-level trough
was noted across British Columbia/Pacific Northwest. All of these
features combined has resulted in northwesterly flow aloft across
western and north central Nebraska. At the surface, an associated
cold front extending from a surface low across the Upper Midwest was
advancing south across the Dakotas with a trailing warm front draped
southward across eastern Nebraska. Strong low-level warm air
advection (WAA) has overspread the area in response to the surface
warm front resulting in one more day of well-above normal
temperatures across the area. At 2 PM CT, temperatures ranged
from 64 degrees at O`Neill to 70 degrees at Imperial.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
Tonight...The aforementioned surface low will continue southeast
into the Great Lakes with the surface cold front sweeping through
the forecast area through early tonight. Strong cold air advection
(CAA) will begin to encompass the area in the wake of the frontal
passage, however, increased cloudiness will allow temperatures to
remain in the 20s.
Thanksgiving Day...Winter comes knocking just in time for the
Thanksgiving holiday. Daytime temperatures will fall 10 to 15
degrees below seasonal values which is a 180 degree flip from
today`s 15 to 20 degrees above normal temperatures. With 3 to 5 mb/3
hour pressure rises and strong cold air advection (CAA),
northeasterly winds will become breezy with widespread gusts of 20
to 25 miles per hour. High temperatures will range from 30 degF
across northern Nebraska to near 40 degF under overcast skies.
However, with continued breezy winds, wind chill values will struggle
to get out of the 20 degF range through the day. With these much
colder temperatures as compared to today`s, make sure to bundle up
if out and about.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
Focus quickly turns to the long duration (36 - 48 hour) snow event
will likely impact much of western, southwestern, and portions of
central Nebraska, beginning the evening of Thanksgiving and ending
late Saturday. The previously mentioned developing upper-level
trough across the Pacific Northwest will dive southeast into the
Great Basin, becoming closed off late Thursday. Light snow will
begin to develop across the Pine Ridge and further west as early
as Thursday afternoon with ample cold air and moisture aloft in
place. As pressure height falls increase ahead of the
disturbance, with increasing upper-level divergence, lift will
begin to increase resulting in widespread light to moderate snow
across all of western Nebraska by sunrise on Friday, generally
areas west of Highway 83. Snow will gradually shift south and
east into southwest and south central Nebraska during the day
Friday. Snow will persist through the day on Friday into early
Saturday before gradually tapering off in the afternoon hours as
mid-level dry air begins to work into the area. Continuing to
see a dry and fluffy snow with this event given the ample cold
air and lift within the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). As stated
in the previous forecast, storm total snow amounts were on the
conservative side. However, trends in ensemble and deterministic
model solutions have begun to become more in agreement. With
collaboration with WPC and neighboring offices, snow amounts
have increased substantially from the inherited forecast with 4
to 7 inches of snow across the western Sandhills and 3 to 5
inches for southwest into south central and north central
Nebraska and far northwest Sandhills. For areas further east,
generally along Highway 183, 1 to 3 inches is expected. Given
the expected snowfall amounts and anticipated impacts to post-
holiday travel, did expand the Winter Storm Watch to include
southwest, south central, and portions of north central
Nebraska. Those with travel plans should plan accordingly and
make sure to stay up to date on the latest forecast.
Outside of snow, it will be rather cold, especially Friday and
Saturday where high temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below
seasonal values. Daytime highs on both days are forecast to
remain in the 20s. The signal for anomalously cold temperatures
for both days is supported by the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index
(EFI) showing high negative anomalies across much of the
forecast area. Temperatures "warm" back into the 30s on Sunday,
though still remaining below normal.
After a busy end to the holiday weekend, quiet and dry
conditions return across western and north central Nebraska
heading into next week. High temperatures gradually trend back
to just below to near climatological values by the middle of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will
be light the remainder of this evening and overnight, increasing
out of the north by late morning continuing through the
afternoon with wind gust up to 20 kts possible.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday
night for NEZ004-022>025-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...Gomez