Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/14/23
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.Key Messages...
- Well above normal temperatures forecast through Thursday.
- Very High Fire Danger expected tomorrow, particularly in
northeast Nebraska where winds will gust up to 40 mph.
- A change to the pattern expected late this week and into the
weekend.
&&
.Discussion...
Today through Thursday:
For the 2nd consecutive day, afternoon temperatures have easily
surpassed the forecast. In Mid-November, it is hard to imagine
most people caring too much about that. However, this is elevating
the fire weather concern across the area this afternoon. Sustained
winds are in the 15 to 20 mph range with occasional gusts up to 30
mph. As of 3 PM, relative humidity values are at or below 20% for
most locations. Caution should be exercised for any activity that
could lead to fire ignition.
As of 3 PM, Lincoln is up to 72 degrees, but it probably won`t go
too much higher due to the time of year. The record for November
13 for Lincoln is 85 degrees so that record is well out of reach.
However, for tomorrow and Wednesday the record is 75 and 76
degrees respectively. It would seem those records are out of
reach. Nonetheless, temperatures are well above normal and will
remain so through Thursday. The current forecast for tomorrow is
calling for cooler afternoon temperatures tomorrow. It can be
justified. Mid-level heights will decrease slightly and there will
be a few clouds in the sky. Though, 850 hPa temperatures will be
a couple of degrees warmer. With stronger winds expected, mixing
higher than the 850 hPa level is reasonable. If a location hit 70
degrees today, it`ll likely reach it again tomorrow. This is well
above most model guidance and comes in around the 95 percentile of
guidance.
Wind speeds are gradually strengthening in response to a mid-
level shortwave far north of us in Canada. The tightening surface
gradient will result in much stronger winds tomorrow. Peak wind
speeds will be from the south-southwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts
ranging between 25 to 40 mph. The strongest winds are expected in
northeast Nebraska near the South Dakota border. Despite the
greater wind speeds, the fire danger is expected to be somewhat
mitigated by increased dewpoint temperatures. Minimum relative
humidity values are forecast to be in the mid 30s and low 40s. The
aforementioned deeper mixing could result in much lower relative
humidity values.
A surface high will move southeast from the Dakotas and into
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa on Wednesday and this will
result in much calmer winds. Additionally, the mid-level ridge
will flatten a bit resulting in decreased mid-level flights. With
plentiful sunshine and even warmer 850 hPa temperatures, there
should be little if any drop off in temperatures.
Thursday will bring a change to the synoptic pattern as a
stronger mid-level trough will eject across the northern Plains.
In the first half of the day, winds will be from the southwest at
15 to 25 mph with gusts between 25 to 40 mph. Once again, the
strongest winds are expected in northeast Nebraska. High
temperatures Thursday will be dependent on the timing of the
front. It appears the front should clear the forecast area in the
late afternoon. This timing should still allow for temperatures to
reach into the 60s. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the
front and will still be strong, albeit slightly weaker than the
early day southwest winds. No precipitation is expected with this
frontal passage.
Friday through Sunday:
The frontal passage will bring cooler temperatures on Friday with
highs in the mid 50s. Those temperatures are still above normal
for this time of year. On the synoptic scale, RAP analysis shows a
500 hPa cutoff low currently off of the West Coast. It spins for
most of the week remaining off the West Coast. Model guidance has
been varied in their handling of this feature. It will eventually
get picked up by the mid-level flow and bring a chance for
precipitation to the central Plains. The NBM gives the area a 50%
chance for rain late Sunday and into Monday morning. Confidence is
high that temperatures will be much closer to the climatic
average. Confidence is much lower in precipitation specifics.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 505 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023
Winds are the primary concern through the period. Southerly winds
at 9-12 knots at TAF issuance. LLWS develops at KOFK 03-14z, and
KOMA 07-11z, with winds around 2000` from the southwest at 35-45
knots. South southwest winds increase again to 17 to 32 knots by
14-16z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fajman
AVIATION...DeWald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
956 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front and wave of low pressure traverses the area
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the west through
Tuesday night, eventually moving offshore on Wednesday. The high
drifts farther east Wednesday night through Friday. A cold
front and coast coastal storm affect the area Friday night
through Saturday. High pressure builds in for the second half of
next weekend into the beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Temperatures have cooled more quickly than previously anticipated
in some areas, particularly over eastern LI where a clear sky
and light to calm winds have allowed for radiational cooling.
Lowered the low temp forecast here as well as for some other
inland locations. Winds should pick up from the west to NW later
tonight and limit further strong cooling. A cyclonic flow aloft
may result in partly to mostly cloudy conditions at times
inland, which would mitigate cooling as well. Light rain
showers/sprinkles have now exited east, and therefore expecting
dry weather for the rest of the night. Weak low pressure and
cold front are in the process of passing through. Patchy frost
anticipated, mainly across parts of the interior overnight.
Lows overnight ranging from around 30 well inland to around 40
in the the city. Not enough potential for frost in any zones
where the growing season continues, so no advisories needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong high pressure builds in from the west Tuesday through Tuesday
night. This strong high pressure area will eventually move offshore
on Wednesday.
Mid level ridging and negative vorticity advection will keep sky
conditions mostly clear Tuesday through Wednesday. However, a steep
pressure gradient between the high and low pressure well out into
the Atlantic will keep a gusty northerly flow for Tuesday. Initial
low level cold air advection early in the day will be weakening and
eventually become more warm air advection. Downslope flow with the
northerly flow will allow for coastal sites to get into lower 50s
for high temperatures with upper 40s across the interior for high
temperatures. The forecast highs are a combination of MET, MAV
and NBM guidance.
The northerly flow will eventually weaken with warmer air advecting
in at 850mb as ridging continues Tuesday night. With center of high
pressure moving into the region by early Wednesday, winds will
diminish late Tuesday night and more efficient radiational cooling
can be expected.
The relatively colder MET guidance was used for the low temperature
forecast Tuesday night. The forecast lows range from the low to mid
20s across parts of the interior and rural sections of Eastern Long
Island to upper 30s along the parts of the immediate coast as well
as throughout NYC. Compared to Monday night, Tuesday night is
expected to have quite a bit more frost formation. Much of the
forecast region is forecast to have areas of frost develop.
Some parts of NYC as well as Hudson NJ and Southern Nassau NY are
forecast to reach into mid 30s with frost formation forecast. Since
these zones are still in an active growing season, once forecast
gets within 24 hours, parts of the aforementioned area could have
potential for frost advisories with subsequent forecasts.
For Wednesday, light winds in the morning will eventually increase
and become more southerly in the afternoon. With limited vertical
mixing, forecast high temperatures will be similar to those of the
previous day, ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Again, a
blend of MAV, MET, and NBM guidance was used.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tranquil weather expected from Wednesday night through the day
Friday as surface high pressure drifts east over the northwestern
Atlantic. Deep layered ridging and rising heights will mean warmer
than normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday, with highs in the
upper 50 to lower 60s.
An amplifying upper level trough is expected to dive south from the
northern Plains state Thursday night into Friday. At the same time,
low pressure will develop and intensify over the Southeast U.S.
Coast along the subtropical jet. Phasing of the northern and
southern jets looks to occur sometime Friday night, allowing for
some potentially rapid intensification of the coastal storm while
the cold front approaches the area from the west. Guidance show the
low to pass well south and east of the region. However there are of
course some uncertainties this far out with the track of the storm,
though, which means a difference in rain amounts. The ECMWF is
closer to the coast, but weaker, while the GFS is much stronger with
and farther east. Stuck fairly close to NBM given uncertainties.
Upper level trough remain over the Great Lakes region for Sunday
into the beginning of next week as high pressure builds in at the
surface. Cloud coverage may be more than what is currently in the
forecast given cold pool aloft and the upper level trough over the
region. Cold air advection behind the front will allow temperatures
to drop to at or slightly below normal for this time of year for
Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak cold passes through tonight with high pressure building
to the west Tuesday.
VFR.
Light SW winds shift W later tonight, then NW overnight while
increasing slightly. NW winds increase to 15-20kt with gusts
around 25kt on Tuesday, with occasionally higher gusts possible,
especially at the NYC metro terminals.
NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: VFR. NW G20-25kt possible early.
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Chance MVFR or lower in showers. S G15-20kt.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers, showers ending with
conditions improving late in the day. W G15-20kt, becoming NW.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions on the waters initially are below SCA and should
remain that way through this evening. Overnight, winds increase
behind a cold front. Gusts to 20 kt develop and some occasional
gusts to 25 kt will be possible late.
A steep pressure gradient between low pressure well out in the
Atlantic and high pressure to the west, will result in gusty NW
flow Tuesday. Gusts are expected to reach 25 to 30 kt on the
ocean waters and will be less across the non-ocean waters but
25 kt gusts on the non-ocean waters can be expected at times.
RAP and GFS Bufkit soundings show good agreement with 25kt gusts
on the LI Sound for Tuesday.
Winds will decrease Tuesday night as high pressure eventually
moves overhead. Ocean SCA wind gusts linger into the evening
before subsiding below SCA thresholds.
Conditions then remain below SCA thresholds for the rest of
Tuesday night and through Wednesday with a weak pressure
gradient in place.
Seas are forecast to remain below 5 ft through Wednesday.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected mid to late week as high pressure
slides across the region. Next potential for SCA conditions is
Friday Night thru next weekend with increasing S/SE winds and
building waves ahead of approaching cold front and then NE/offshore
winds likely with coastal low development. Waves on Saturday could
build to 5 to 12 ft on the ocean waters, and up to 9 ft are possible
at the sound entrance.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With high astronomical levels with recent new moon, a few
locations along South Shore Bays and Western LI Sound coastline
could touch minor coastal flood benchmarks with early Wednesday
high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Wednesday, discussed in the Short/Long term forecast discussion.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler with daytime highs in the low
to upper 60s with overnight lows in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 324 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023
An H5 low and associated surface low will trudge along the northern
Gulf Coast. Forecast models continue to differ on the location of
these features, which causes a wide range of potential rainfall
totals across our area. Confidence is high that the area will see
beneficial rainfall for the first time in weeks. Confidence is also
fairly high that areas in the Florida Panhandle and southeastern
Alabama will see higher totals than those in the southeastern
Florida Big Bend and the I-75 corridor. However, just how much rain
any of those areas get is a bit more uncertain due to the forecast
uncertainty on how far east the surface low can make it. That said,
ensemble guidance supports widespread 1" to 3" for much of the
drought stricken Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama and
generally less than 2" as you head towards the I-75 corridor. It is
worth noting that models are hinting at a band of heavier rain being
possible somewhere across the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama
Wednesday into Wednesday night due to the position of the lows at
850mb and 700mb. As a result, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for excessive
rainfall Wednesday across the tri-state area.
Fortunately, the severe weather threat with this system is looking
unlikely due to the lack of instability and the warm front expected
to remain in the Gulf of Mexico. That said, a few rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out along the immediate coast as they`ll be a little
closer to the warm front.
Other than the threat for locally heavy rain, there may be the need
for a Wind Advisory along the immediate coast in Franklin, Gulf, and
perhaps Bay Counties Tuesday night and potentially again Wednesday
night. This is due to a developing 925mb 40 to 45 knot jet over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which may mix down to the surface over
the Gulf waters and into the coastal communities.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023
A few showers remain in the forecast Thursday as the H5 low and
surface low continue to weaken. Drier weather returns Thursday night
and is expected to linger through the weekend. A cold front is
forecast to race through during the day Saturday. But there won`t be
much, if any, moisture left over, so it`ll likely be a dry frontal
passage. Afternoon temperatures won`t be impacted too much as
they`ll generally stay in the middle to upper 70s through the
weekend. Overnight lows, however, are forecast to drop from the
upper 50s to near 60 ahead of the front to the middle to upper 40s
Saturday night behind the front as drier air filters in across the
Southeast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023
The latest trends favor VFR continuing overnight at all terminals
despite widespread cloud cover and pockets of light rain. Light
NE winds below 10 kts increase to easterly about 12 kts late tmrw
morning with gusts around 20 kts. Highest confidence in rain and
low cigs affecting ECP by then where MVFR is fcst at ~14Z. The
latter holds at DHN/TLH until closer to 20Z where RA/-RA is fcst.
Ceilings look to hold at VFR for ABY/VLD thru this cycle while
lower rain chances prompt only VCSH attm.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 835 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023
Marine conditions to deteriorate tonight and tomorrow ahead of a
Gulf Low approaching from the west. The increasing pressure
gradient will make for dangerous boating in the form of strong
easterly winds at or near gale strength with frequent gusts up to
35 knots or more. The Gale Watch from waters along and west of
Ochlockonee River was upgraded to a Warning with a now earlier
onset time for the western legs at noon CST. Advisory levels look
to hold along the easternmost nearshore zones. Elevated winds and
seas are expected through mid-week before relaxing by late
Thursday or early Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023
Low mixing heights will result in borderline low dispersions
areawide tomorrow and Wednesday as a Gulf low treks toward the area
despite elevated transport winds. Additionally, a wetting rain is
expected across the majority of the CWA tomorrow through Wednesday.
Thus, fire weather concerns remain low at this time.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023
Freshwater... Wet weather will finally return on Tuesday and
continue through Thursday, with the heaviest rain expected Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Multi-day rainfall totals are forecast to be 1
to 4 inches, with the higher amounts along the Panhandle coast.
Isolated multi-day totals of up to 7 inches are possible someplace
over the Florida Panhandle.
This much rain should bring rises on area rivers during the second
half of this week. However, rivers are currently running extremely
low, so there is lots of capacity to accept water while remaining
under bankfull. Hydrologic ensembles currently show only a low
chance (10 percent or less) of even seeing one or two rivers hit
action stage, and none show riverine flooding at this time.
So the main concern will be limited to short-lived localized runoff
issues. Flash flood guidance is high right now, so it would take a
locality getting a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain to
bring about those localized runoff issues. This is possible given
the potential in this weather pattern for embedded convection to
backbuild, or the possibility of a band of rain pivoting around a
stationary point.
Saltwater... There is a low chance of minor coastal flooding Tuesday
night and Wednesday night, mainly from Saint Marks westward. Near-
gale easterlies are currently forecast across the northeastern Gulf
Tuesday night, though there is the possibility of southeast winds
depending on the future track and structure of a Gulf low pressure
system. GFS-based statistical guidance for Saint Marks,
Apalachicola, and Panama City Beach bring water within a few inches
of minor coastal flood criteria during the high tide cycle on
Tuesday night and Wednesday night. PETSS 10-percent exceedance
guidance shows the area around Alligator Point and the mouth of the
Ochlockonee River being most vulnerable to experiencing minor
coastal flooding. If winds take on a more southerly component than
forecast, then additional coastline extending west into the
Panhandle could be at risk of minor coastal flooding. This is still
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 58 65 57 68 / 30 40 60 60
Panama City 59 66 56 69 / 40 70 70 80
Dothan 54 60 51 63 / 50 60 70 80
Albany 53 65 52 63 / 20 20 50 70
Valdosta 56 66 56 68 / 20 20 40 60
Cross City 61 72 62 75 / 10 20 40 50
Apalachicola 61 69 61 70 / 20 60 70 70
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for GMZ730-765.
Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770-
772.
Gale Warning from noon Tuesday to midnight CST Wednesday night
for GMZ750-752-770-772.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for GMZ755-775.
Gale Warning from 7 PM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for GMZ755-
775.
&&
$$
UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Reese/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Haner