Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/13/23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

 920 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023

The northern end of a surface high in central Nebraska extends
into western and parts of central North Dakota this evening. Winds
are becoming light, especially west and south central, while RAP
surface pressure analysis still shows a modest gradient in the far
north central from a deep low moving into western Ontario.
Nighttime satellite imagery shows a large swath of high clouds,
in line with an approaching ridge axis, approaching the ND/MT
state line. Cloud cover will increase from west to east overnight.
Main change with this update was to nudge down overnight lows in
our typical cool spots in the southwest, with some locations
already in the upper 20s, although with increasing cloud cover
these lows could occur earlier in the night than normal.

UPDATE Issued at 540 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023

Quiet weather this evening, as a broad surface high is centered
over Nebraska and extends back to the northwest into the western
Dakotas. As this high moves east through the evening, winds will
diminish, becoming light and variable overnight. Satellite
imagery shows a large expanse of high clouds over western and
central Montana, moving east, so expect cloud cover to increase
overnight. No big changes with this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023

The winds will start to relax later this afternoon as a
temperature inversion sets up. Surface high pressure is currently
set up in eastern Montana under a ridge aloft, this will move
through North Dakota tonight, turning winds clockwise. By Monday
afternoon winds will be out of the southeast, and gusting around
30 knots as the pressure gradient sets up in the west and moves
east through the day. High temperatures were bumped up since there
is a warming ridge a loft, using the 90th percentile of the NBM.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023

After Monday the ridge axis moves through, leaving us under
southwest flow and a warm pocket in the 850mb temperatures for
Tuesday. Highs will again be in the 50s and possibly lower 60s in
the southwest. Meanwhile a low pressure system in southern Canada
passes by our north, dragging a cold front to it`s southwest. This
front will move through Wednesday night. There are some hints in
the models of this bringing some chances of precipitation but
there is also some disagreement in them too. Right now in the
forecast we have a slight chance of rain/snow in the northwest
Wednesday night. High temperatures will dip down to near normal
(44) on Thursday from a digging trough. Moving into the weekend,
temperatures will warm back into the 50s with an incoming ridge
once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 920 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Breezy
westerly winds will diminish overnight, becoming light and
variable as a surface high pressure moves through the area. Winds
will shift to southeasterly on Monday morning, increasing to
around 20 knots sustained in the afternoon.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Jones
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Jones